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I don't play with high leverage. When I see news like this, I usually set aside the hype first. After watching spot holdings for a long time, I'm more concerned about whether a company's business truly becomes solid after switching tracks.
According to Bloomberg, Nscale, an AI data center developer transformed from a Bitcoin mining company, is still proceeding with its IPO as planned, targeting a valuation of $30 billion. The company claims to have signed contracts worth $103 billion, but as of August 2026, it has only delivered 55 megawatts of computing power. The potential contract demand corresponds to a capacity of 10 gigawatts, and the industry is currently under pressure.
I think this is more like a reminder for the mining companies' transformation narrative rather than a long-term value booster. Contracts cannot be directly counted as revenue, and the gap between delivered scale and potential demand also shows that there is still a long way to go for fulfillment. The valuation of the old business should not be blindly replaced by a new story just because it is labeled AI. As for me, I hold without moving, continue to watch the fulfillment progress, and remind myself not to use leverage to bet on the narrative heating up. 【Ripple's annualized revenue hits $900 million, XRP needs to step up】
Ripple's latest report increasingly resembles that of a financial infrastructure company. The company expects its product annualized revenue to reach $900 million by the end of 2026, with growth contributions from payments, custody, stablecoins, institutional brokerage, and corporate treasury management; the payment network's cumulative transaction volume is expected to approach $150 billion, and the number of multi-product customers has tripled this year.
Supporting actions are also accelerating: $RLUSD's market cap has reached about $2.6 billion, Coinbase has integrated it into both retail and institutional platforms, and Ripple has obtained final approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for the National Trust Bank. Their business goal is to enable banks and institutions to use blockchain for settlement, custody, and USD stablecoins, diversifying revenue sources beyond a single product.
However, Ripple's revenue is not the same as $XRP's performance. The $900 million is an annualized operational target, not revenue already realized for the full year; business expansion does not necessarily mean all demand will convert into $XRP buying pressure. For $XRP holders, what truly matters is how much of these businesses actually use $XRP and generate sustained demand. The more profitable Ripple becomes is good news, but whether the token benefits depends on how value transmission occurs.This morning's ETH strategy
Operation:
Short near 2320-2340 on the rebound
First target: 2300-2280
Second target: 2260-2220
Set stop loss properly
ETH's recent waterfall plunge is ruthless, breaking down rapidly with bearish momentum fully exhausted. But the indicators are already completely oversold. Chasing shorts now risks a retaliatory rebound teaching a lesson. Strategy is to firmly avoid catching a falling knife; wait for the rebound to confirm resistance before shorting, targeting new lows. ETH's drop is brutal; the big picture is bearish. Wait for it to rebound, then short when it stalls. Defend stops strictly, admit mistakes on break, never hold losing positions! $ETH #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 A brief recap of the recent drop.
From the chart, Bitcoin failed to hold above 81800 and directly pulled back to around 79800. This drop likely liquidated a lot of high-leverage long positions.
The current position is quite awkward. Downwards, around 79000 is a short-term support to see if it can hold; upwards, 80000 has become a resistance level again.
My personal view is, after such a sharp drop, don’t rush to catch the fall. Wait for it to consolidate and observe the volume. If you have open positions, don’t blindly hold on at this time.
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ $BTC Protocol side VS user side, I will score this message separately. Aave has raised the borrowing limits for Bitcoin and Ether collateral on V3 and V4, where Core's WBTC and cbBTC borrowers can get about 11% more borrowing capacity with the same collateral; after maxing out, the buffer against price drops will shrink.
From the protocol side, I think this is a plus for product competitiveness: the same collateral can support more turnover, which is more practical for those who already have borrowing needs. From the user side, I wouldn't give a direct thumbs up: an increased limit doesn't mean borrowing costs are lower, and maxing out the limit compresses the downside protection. I prefer to see this as a functional upgrade for borrowing users rather than a market-wide benefit.
So my judgment is: the protocol is more usable, but whether it's more cost-effective for users still needs separate calculation. When evaluating this adjustment, do you stand on the protocol side, focusing on limit competitiveness; or on the user side, valuing actual borrowing costs more?【HiLo Big Gray Brother Morning Report】10/29 · QQQ Faces Resistance and Pulls Back, Gold and Crude Oil Await Confirmation of Turning Points (2/2)
First, let's look at the US stock market. Yesterday, QQQ climbed to around 730 before turning down, confirming the previous judgment: last week's rebound high still faces significant pressure. In the short term, if it cannot retake 730, the previous low-point rebound may have ended; for the remaining two trading days this week, attention is still needed on the adjustment strength.
The storage sector has seen considerable gains this week, with SK Hynix rising about 25% from the bottom, recovering more than half of its previous losses, showing strong performance. The recently released earnings are also very impressive. However, the short-term rebound also faces pressure and may still undergo a pullback and consolidation.
XAU gold and CL crude oil temporarily maintain yesterday's assessment: both have shown large-cycle high and low signals and are currently at key resistance or support zones, but turning points have not yet been confirmed. Especially for XAU, this round of adjustment has not yet broken the previous low, and the bottom structure is still insufficient. If it can form a bottoming process similar to July–August and establish a secondary low below 4000, the structure will be more solid.
#HiLoBigGrayBrotherMorningReport #USStocks #QQQ #Gold #XAU 💡Insight｜The top gainer is often someone else's profit from four hours ago.
$PEPE Two dormant wallets dumped 2.27 trillion tokens (about $10.19 million), surging up to 15% in the morning, now down to less than 1%. All tokens were bought up, but the price at which they were bought determines who profits.
$ZEC Up 137% this year, one of only three sectors outperforming BTC this year (Trading/AI/Privacy), today retraced with the market to $1254. The biggest gainers also have the sharpest pullbacks.
$VVV The AI leader with a 1431% increase this year dropped 10% today; the AI sector fell 8.51% in 24 hours, and AKE cut 30% in two days.
My judgment: wait and see. BTC fell back to 80,000, down 1.7% in 7 days, volume hasn't picked up; this wave is sector rotation, not new money entering.
#欧意Orbit #BTC market #Altcoin season #Meme coins #Risk warning
Are you holding the top or the bottom now?
Crypto assets are high risk; the above is personal observation, not investment advice, please DYOR #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Regarding MicroStrategy, Q3 mainly depends on BTC price changes. Using data from 7.1 to 9.30, GAAP should be around $17. Currently, it's only at 80%, which is an information gap. Polymarket's current odds are 96.5%. Everyone can decide to buy based on their own judgment #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Sigh, the worst feeling isn’t losing money, but turning a trade that originally made 30% profit into a loss.
I’ve experienced this before too—clearly having made a good profit, still thinking it could go higher, but when it pulls back, I hesitate to sell, and end up giving all the profits back.
Now, if a position has a floating profit of 20%-30%, I usually handle it in three steps.
First, sell 30% to at least lock in some profit.
If it continues to rise, sell another 30%, leaving 40% to ride the trend.
But I don’t obsess over the profit percentage. If the price falls below the previous pullback low and fails to rebound above it, I also consider reducing the remaining position.
There’s one issue I pay special attention to: don’t move your stop loss too close just because you’ve made a little profit. Otherwise, a normal pullback will wash you out.
I now believe that a truly good take-profit strategy isn’t about always selling at the highest point, but about locking in the money you’ve earned without missing out on the big moves later.
You can give back some profit, but you can’t let a profitable trade turn into a big loss without limits. @OKX星球 [AI Uncovers Three Bitcoin Core Vulnerabilities, The Biggest Fear Is Actually Nobody Updating]
$BTC's underlying software disclosed three vulnerabilities at once, which sounds alarming, but the real concern should be whether node operators are applying patches promptly. One vulnerability can exhaust memory through malicious network data, causing Windows, macOS, and BSD nodes to crash; another slowly consumes memory, and the third could corrupt block rollback data.
These vulnerabilities are related to AI-assisted code scanning. The issues were found by Project Loupe and verified manually; developers quickly fixed them and released updates for maintained versions. The fixed versions include 29.5, 30.4, 31.2, and 32.1.
What this really exposes is the weakness that decentralized networks still rely on a large number of independent nodes for continuous maintenance. Node crashes do not mean private keys are leaked or Bitcoin is stolen, and the disclosed information does not indicate that Bitcoin consensus has been compromised. Regarding the market, there is currently no reason to conclude that BTC will drop solely based on these three vulnerabilities; for node operators, upgrading as soon as possible is the right course of action. I'm doomed 😭 I shouldn't have touched this thing
I really want to slap myself a few times
$AXIS That's a month's worth of my food money
I opened a heavy long position at 0.2329, now it's directly crashed to 0.149, floating loss has reached 360%, the more I hold, the more desperate I get.
The one-hour chart is clear at a glance, all moving averages are tightly pressing above the price, MA5, MA10, MA20 layers of bearish pressure, MACD continuously below the zero line, bearish momentum hasn't weakened at all. This coin previously surged to 0.3715, but the funds quietly withdrew long ago, sliding down without resistance, almost no decent rebound to provide an opportunity to break even.
Don't be fooled by the 79% buy ratio on the order book, most are retail bottom-fishing orders, no major funds stepping in to support, liquidity is very poor, even a slight selling pressure can push it to new lows.
I originally hoped to catch a rebound from oversold conditions, betting it could bounce back, but ended up deeply trapped. The trap of altcoins is like this: seeing a big drop, thinking it's the bottom, but it's actually just a downward continuation. Now I'm stuck between a rock and a hard place, cutting losses hurts, holding on but don't know when it will end, the lesson of bottom-fishing is harshly learned again.
$BTC $ETH
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 🔥 ETH sideways movement does not mean safety! OI continues to increase, the real risk is a sudden market reversal!
🔴 Market observation: ETH fluctuated around $2315 at noon, with the 15-minute 20 MA at 2321 acting as resistance. After an early morning push near 2330, it pulled back. Contract open interest (OI) is rising, indicating continuous position accumulation, but OI alone cannot determine bullish or bearish direction; the key is how price and volume coordinate.
🟠 Short on rebound: Focus on the 2322–2330 range. If the rebound is blocked and clear weakening signals appear, consider light short positions; stop loss above 2335, with 2344 being a higher risk boundary—don’t wait until then to decide on stop loss.
🟢 Downside targets: 2300 is the first level to watch, 2296 is near the previous low. After reaching these, consider taking profits in batches, but if volume breaks down below, be cautious of further declines.
🔵 Personal judgment: Currently looks like a consolidation waiting for directional choice. Don’t short out of fear of missing out, nor trade frequently due to frustration with sideways movement. Wait for signals, and calculate stop loss and risk-reward before entering.
⚠️ Risk reminder: Increasing OI does not mean an immediate crash or surge; patience is more important than guessing direction.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $ETH $BTC $ZEC SNDKUSDT 🔴 SHORT WATCH
$SNDK is near 1,347.8, down 1.43%. Price is weaker today, but the next move needs confirmation.
Entry: 1,345–1,352 after rejection
TP1: 1,335
TP2: 1,325
SL: 1,362
Watch price reaction near resistance and confirm the direction on the chart. Avoid entering during an unstable bounce.#StrategyQ3BTCGains Calculate it: BITB inflow is $1.3 million, exactly equal to the total net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF on the same day, accounting for 100% of the contribution by net amount. I care more about this structure rather than the three words "net inflow": the direction is positive, but it is still insufficient to conclude that funds are generally increasing positions.
① The total net inflow on October 28 was about $1.3 million, which is the result after offsetting buys and sells. It reflects the net buying and selling direction of traditional institutions and US stock investors, but cannot be directly taken as the total buying intensity of the day. I do not equate net amount with trading heat.
② According to the numbers given in the material, the net amount of products other than BITB is about zero. This does not mean there was no trading in other products; inflows and outflows may have offset each other. Since specific breakdowns are not provided, I will not speculate beyond the data.
③ The $1.3 million corresponds to the single US trading day of October 28. My judgment is that if net inflows continue later and come from more diversified sources, then the sustainability will be more convincing; this is just my observation condition, not something that has already happened.
I will regard this Farside Investors data as a somewhat positive capital signal, not a strong bullish indicator. Without scale context and continuous records, I cannot conclude strong capital strength from this calculation; next, I want to see whether the net inflow can continue and whether it is still contributed by a single product.What is the risk-reward ratio? How to calculate the win rate required for a trade to break even?
In cryptocurrency trading, many people focus only on the price distance when setting stop loss and take profit, without carefully calculating the relationship between potential profit and potential loss. The risk-reward ratio can help traders measure how much risk is worth taking for a trade, but it must be combined with the win rate to better evaluate the strategy.
First, what is the risk-reward ratio?
The risk-reward ratio usually compares the potential profit to the potential loss of a trade. For example, if you plan to lose 100 USDT and target a profit of 200 USDT, then the potential reward-to-risk ratio is 2:1, which is commonly called a 2R target.
Second, how does the risk-reward ratio affect the break-even win rate?
Ignoring fees, slippage, and other costs, and assuming fixed amounts for each profit and loss, the break-even win rate = average loss ÷ (average profit + average loss). If the average profit is 200 USDT and the average loss is 100 USDT, then the break-even win rate is about 33.3%.
Third, is a higher risk-reward ratio always better?
The risk-reward ratio is not necessarily better the higher it is, nor is the win rate always better the higher it is. What really matters is whether the combination of both can continuously generate a reasonable trading expectation after deducting costs.
Next article: What is the break-even win rate? Why do fees change the profitability threshold of a strategy?10.29 BTC Silk Road
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
Market Analysis
$BTC
Previously, the price consolidated sideways in a high-level range. After sufficient chip rotation, it failed to break out effectively, with the center of gravity gradually shifting downward, causing the moving average system to turn downwards and form resistance. Subsequently, bears released concentrated momentum, accelerating the breakdown and pushing the price down to around 79,883.
After a rapid short-term sell-off, bearish momentum was fully vented. The attached indicators entered a deep oversold zone, and the price found initial support at the low level. The current market is in a structural repair window following the sharp decline, combined with marginally positive market expectations being priced in early. Funds have started to speculate on the buyback triggered by the realization of these expectations. Attention is needed: the mid-term moving average resistance framework has not been broken. This rebound is defined as an oversold repair, not a trend reversal; the sustainability of the rebound requires volume support and verification of positive news realization.
Long Position Logic
Technical dimension: After continuous one-sided decline, bearish momentum is exhausted, price reaches a low support zone, and the oversold structure triggers a rebound repair demand, with signs of capital support at the low level;
News dimension: The market has priced in marginally positive expectations in advance, trading sentiment warms up. If subsequent positive news meets market expectations, incremental buying will enter, helping the price test upper resistance.
This is an expectation-driven rebound market; trend reversal signals are not yet confirmed. If the positive news is disproved, the bullish logic fails immediately, so strictly control position size.
Entry: Stabilize in the 797-799 range to enter long
Stop loss: 79000
First target: 818
Second target: 824 The first FOMC meeting of the year is behind us, and crypto markets delivered a textbook short squeeze rather than a clean directional break. In the 24 hours after the decision, roughly $386 million in positions were liquidated across the network: $246 million in shorts against just $140 million in longs, with more than 86,000 traders forced out. Many had chased short exposure near the 80,000 line on $BTC, only to be run over by a recovery that looks less like a trend reversal and more like a laZECUSDT 🔴 SHORT SETUP
$ZEC is trading near 1,250.83, down 4.55%. The decline signals strong selling pressure, but a relief rally is possible.
Entry: 1,250–1,258 after rejection
TP1: 1,240
TP2: 1,230
SL: 1,266
Wait for sellers to confirm control. If price recovers above resistance, skip the short.#GoogleQ3MixedResults Optical chips replacing memory? The underlying logic of MU is being overturned, and the current rebound is all a panic wave!
High-level sideways trading has never been a buildup, but rather the main force quietly retreating.
News: Marvell is reported to be negotiating a $91 billion acquisition of optical chip leader Lumentum, accelerating the layout of "optical interconnect + photonic mesh" technology, directly targeting the breakthrough of the memory wall bottleneck. Industrial capital is betting real money on "optical replacing memory," and MU's underlying logic is quietly being shaken.
Technical and personal view: The 1-hour MACD green bars are accelerating release, price broke below the BOLL middle band, closing at 947.62. Capital flow score is -96, with a strong net outflow exceeding 2.15 million in 15 minutes. Short positions are piled up like a wall in the 960-1000 range above, which is a typical high-level distribution followed by accelerated bottom chasing; this is not a shakeout, but a main force retreat.
Long-short strategy: Do not chase shorts in the short term.
Wait for volume contraction and stabilization at 920-930 to lightly speculate on a rebound; if volume expands and breaks below 900, follow the trend to short towards 850.
The wave of optical chip mergers and acquisitions is coming, how much longer can MU's "memory wall" moat hold?
$MU $SKHYNIX $SNDK #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as expected this time, representing a typical hawkish pause, with a 10:2 vote; two members supported a rate hike and expressed reservation for future rate increases. Initially, funds sold off after the decision, the stock market quickly declined, and the market's first reaction was to price in "inflation risks not eliminated, possibility of a rate hike in December," while U.S. Treasury yields rose simultaneously, suppressing growth stock valuations.
After a brief decline, a recovery rebound occurred because some funds interpreted that at least no rate hike was implemented this time, the negative news was priced in, short-term bearish factors were exhausted, and some short-term funds bottom-fished, driving the index higher.
However, near 9:00 Beijing time, the market plunged sharply again. On one hand, $SAMSUNG's earnings report was released, raising market concerns about storage expansion and weakening cyclical dividends, making the storage and chip sectors the main selling pressure; on the other hand, institutional funds in the Asian session re-examined the meeting text and repriced the hawkish signals, U.S. Treasury yields rose again, combined with macro and sector bearish factors resonating, bulls' confidence quickly faded, triggering a new round of concentrated selling.
Overall, the unchanged interest rate is only a superficial result; the market repeatedly gambled on the Fed's hawkish tone of retaining the option to raise rates, combined with bearish fundamentals in the storage sector, causing this round of intense volatility.#三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓 #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Samsung's Q3 forecasted operating profit is nearly 8 times year-on-year, setting a new single-quarter high, with HBM4+ memory price increases as the core driving force.
The positive news was realized in advance, combined with market concerns about supply pressure from subsequent HBM capacity expansion and capital outflow from Korean stocks, coupled with the Fed's hawkish stance, resulting in a "positive news realized decline," with a daily drop of 4.51%.
Compared to SK Hynix: Hynix's HBM4 expansion progress is slower than expected.
#三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓 Two events on the same day exposed the cracks in the crypto market.
A Japanese Bitcoin industry company completed a third-party allotment capital increase of 840 million yen, with very strict conditions: no cash, 100% physical Bitcoin delivery. This is not just a slogan; it is directly exchanging equity financing tools for spot Bitcoin, and after receiving the funds, heavily investing in the Lightning Network. A company engaged in physical infrastructure bypasses banks and fiat currency, treating Bitcoin as underlying liquidity.
On the other hand, Robinhood's crypto trading revenue in Q3 plummeted 55% year-over-year, directly dragging down overall EPS, with after-hours stock price falling over 7%. This brokerage, which grew by catering to retail traders, thrived on crypto and is now being held back by the crypto downturn.
Looking at these two together: at the corporate level, equity tools are being used to accumulate $BTC, while retail trading enthusiasm is waning. Prices may not move immediately, but chips are changing hands—from those chasing gains to those who don't focus on short-term fluctuations.
The Lightning Network deserves special attention. It is Bitcoin's most practical payment scenario; companies investing real money indicate belief that Bitcoin will ultimately be used, not just speculated on. This kind of investment doesn't show up on daily charts but will manifest in infrastructure over the next three to five years.
In the short term, retail retreat means volatility will remain suppressed, making the cost of chasing highs lower but the direction unclear; in the medium term, corporate Bitcoin holdings will only increase. These two forces are moving in opposite directions, and which one fails first will determine the next market trend.Over $25 billion. Annualized basis. Don't get ahead of yourself. ⚡Visa disclosed stablecoin settlement volume, and its card-linked business is also expanding.
I see this as a positive sentiment boost for the payment sector, but it doesn't mean all related tokens have buying pressure. Increased settlement demand and capital entering to buy tokens are two different things. The news can set the tone, but whether the price can hold depends on volume.
I won't rush to buy on the first surge after the news in the short term. If the volume increases and the price can hold on a pullback, then I'll consider entering; if it falls back to the starting zone, I'll exit and observe. Let's see the support first, not blindly follow the narrative.The phrase "paying the seller in RMB" concerns me more than "Alipay goes live." Peer announced on October 27 that Alipay had launched a Beta version on its platform, which can be used to pay and receive RMB when buying and selling $USDC, but Alipay denied supporting cryptocurrency transactions, calling the related promotion false.
If I were to write a strategy, I would set a rule: if "integration" in the promotion only corresponds to users paying sellers, then mark it as a "payment path description" and do not count it as a signal that the payment institution supports crypto transactions. 🤖 I think what is overestimated this time is the institutional endorsement feeling, not the mere addition of a payment method itself.
The benefit of this rule is that it separates "where the money flows from" and "who endorses this business." In my understanding, just because users can pay with a certain tool does not directly imply that the tool provider supports the transaction's purpose. Mixing the two could lead to misinterpreting payment convenience as compliance assurance, which is what worries me more.
However, my rule as a quantitative newbie also has loopholes: excluding based solely on "paying the seller" might mistakenly exclude genuine cooperation, as the payment recipient alone is not sufficient evidence. So I tend to downgrade the signal first rather than outright reject it. If you were to write this condition yourself, what evidence would you set as the threshold to lift the downgrade: mutual confirmation of cooperation, or explicit clauses covering crypto transaction purposes?The result of this Federal Reserve interest rate vote was ten votes in favor of maintaining the rate and two votes leaning towards a rate hike, with the federal funds rate remaining locked at 3.75%–4%. The two dissenting members both hoped to raise the rate by 25 basis points. The announcement mentioned that the current U.S. economic expansion momentum is strong, the labor market remains stable, but inflation levels are still high. The Federal Reserve stated that it will dynamically adjust policies based on the economic data released over time, aiming to bring inflation back down to 2%. It is worth noting that this meeting did not release economic forecast documents or the dot plot; the future direction of monetary policy will entirely depend on upcoming economic indicators.
This macro rhythm will directly transmit to the storage sector, with Changxin, Hynix, and SanDisk all being typical strong cyclical stocks. The storage industry has large capital expenditures and is very sensitive to U.S. dollar liquidity: if the market subsequently trades with expectations of a rate cut and U.S. Treasury yields decline, it will support valuations in the storage sector; if inflation fluctuates and hawkish expectations rise, with high interest rates persisting, it will suppress the space for cyclical recovery. There is also a view circulating in the market that if U.S. stocks continue to rally and shorts are forced to cover, the market's bet on easing will further strengthen. $SNDK $SKHYNIX #三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓 Earnings reports released the same night: Microsoft rises, Google falls. This time the market only rewards the one who spends money and gets returns.
Microsoft's Q3 revenue was $92.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year, exceeding the expected $90.7 billion.
Adjusted earnings per share were $4.89, also higher than the expected $4.73. Azure surged 48% to $33.2 billion.
Honestly, what impressed me most wasn’t just the beat on expectations, but Azure’s acceleration.
Last quarter it was 42%, this quarter jumped to 48%, and the guidance for next quarter aims for 49% to 50%.
Neighboring Google Cloud also reached $30.7 billion, but total revenue of $127.6 billion missed the expected $128.2 billion, and earnings per share of $2.12 were far below the expected $3.02. After-hours it dropped nearly 10%, back to $293.
The Federal Reserve also released results early this morning, keeping rates steady at 3.75% to 4%, with a 10 to 2 vote, though two members still want to raise rates.
However, the market’s bet on a December rate hike actually dropped from 86% to 82.6%, no one was scared by the hawkish tone.
When the U.S. stock market opens tonight, it needs to hold above $550 to confirm strength; if it falls back below the $531 closing price, this earnings rally will be considered wasted.
In short: The story of AI burning money hasn’t changed, but the market is starting to respond based on returns. $MSFT $GOOGL $NVDA
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 Just saw the net outflow numbers and thought the market sentiment had changed 🤔. CryptoQuant analyst CoinNiel said that $BTC exchanges had a net inflow of 7,278 coins on October 26, turning into a net outflow of 12,702 coins on the 27th, but the evidence still supports a neutral stance.
What I understand is that compared to the scale of outflows, we should now pay more attention to whether the bullish sentiment is rushing ahead. The funding rate is higher than the 7-day and 30-day averages, indicating that the long bias has already risen; however, the open interest contracts only increased by 0.56% over 7 days, so there is no sign of large-scale capital increase yet. Additionally, there were 4 days of net inflows in the past 7 days, so a single day's change cannot represent a sustained withdrawal of supply.
Having been in the circle for a year, I still haven't figured out which has more explanatory power when sentiment and capital are out of sync. If the funding rate continues to rise but open interest doesn't keep up, I would treat it as a divergence to be cautious about—this is my speculation. Moving forward, I want to focus on whether the two are synchronized, rather than just remembering that large outflow.Can't stop laughing, next week is the midterm election, yet crypto companies linked to the Trump family are intensively hiring lawyers. This move is hard not to associate with: are they sensing a loss of influence and rushing to protect themselves?
First, look at $WLFI I, Trump's son directly endorses it, the family can take 75% of the profits, already earned 1.4 billion, but the coin price has been steadily declining since listing. RSI is 36.5, MA7/MA20/MA30 all pressing overhead, the 30-day range position is only 12.6%. Technically, it's a low-level consolidation after a bearish divergence, the rebound depends on the moving averages.
$TRUMP is even more awkward, officially announced as a meme coin, Trump has cashed out nearly 1 billion long-term, now it's become a discarded meme child. EMA20/50/200 are completely in bearish alignment, every rebound faces selling pressure. The only key is the daily pivot at 1.68; if the close breaks below it, there will be no support, making a continuous decline likely.
$BTC just surged to 81,303 then slid back, 24-hour liquidations at 145.7 million, shorts account for 77%—this rally is essentially driven by short liquidations, so the support is weak. If the midterm election really turns Trump into a lame-duck president, sentiment will take another hit, and breaking below 75,000 is not impossible. Lawyers move first, price moves later, don't rush to catch the fall.$BTC's direction was right this morning. I should have cleared my position before going to sleep last night, what a pity to miss out on the 40% profit from last night!
Next up are the midterm elections, the midterm elections on November 8, 2022. BTC also formed a bottom that month. Will history repeat itself? If it does, the bottom of this drop might reach around 75,000."The Retreat of Hedging and Speculation: The Same Story of 80,000 BTC and 100 SOL"
When hedging and speculation retreat simultaneously, 80,000 BTC and 100 SOL tell the same story. On October 29, the market turned red across the board: BTC 79,966, ETH 2,307, SOL 99.63. With FOMC, PCE, GDP, and earnings reports densely packed, risk appetite was suppressed; the two-year buying cost is concentrated above 87,000, and the pressure from unlocking positions suppresses the rebound.
$BTC: 80,000 is a psychological barrier and the ETF unrealized loss line (cost 81,500). Continuous breakdown weakens support, but ETF net inflow is near zero and BTC only fell 7%, indicating that whale and miner sell-offs are nearing the end.
$ETH: 2,310 is the last consensus line. Current price 2,307.5, breaking below the ascending channel, buy-sell ratio 0.973 with sellers dominant; October ETF outflow of 1.26 billion (six times that of BTC). Three overlapping indicators suggest that if lost, the next target is 2,256.
$SOL: The defense at 100. Current price 99.63, down 13.8% in October, ETF outflow about 99.62 million. On-chain perpetual contracts ratio dropped from 17% to 6%, insufficient incremental volume during the transition period, daily chart breaking 100 could target 80.
Summary: The ANTHROPIC Pre-IPO contract acts as a sentiment thermometer, with capital flowing toward high-odds marginal assets. The core contradictions of the three major coins are consistent: macro suppression and ETF flows determine resilience.
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 $ZEC The bears in the ZEC market don't know what they're stubbornly holding on for.
Institutions quietly bought $42 million in spot, and the spot keeps being withdrawn.
These people in the futures are still stubborn, with short positions accounting for over 90%, paying interest daily but not leaving.
The spot chips are all locked up.
This extremely crowded short structure means that as soon as the main force pushes up a bit, it's all fuel delivered on a silver platter.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇People often ask if holding 5 $BTC means you can just retire and relax.
To be honest: those who ask this question are very likely to struggle to hold onto these 5 coins securely.
If you convert 5 BTC into fiat now to enjoy life, it's like exchanging one of humanity's few truly scarce hard assets for continuously depreciating consumer goods.
Looking back at history makes it clear:
In 2016, 5 BTC could only buy an ordinary used car;
In 2020, 5 BTC could cover the down payment for a house;
By 2026, some people just want to cash it out to cover a monthly retirement expense of 10,000.
Whether 5 BTC can actually achieve retirement freedom is not determined by the current coin price. The real test is enduring a flat market in the coming years and resisting the urge to cash out for consumption.
Choosing to cash out now only brings temporary wealth; holding long-term offers a chance to leap across social classes.
So the question is, in your mind, how many BTC do you need to hold to confidently quit your job immediately? #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $ETH ETH 10.29 In-depth Review｜Chip Battle Intensifies, Who Is Quietly Bottom Fishing?
ETH is quoted at $2,355, with four consecutive monthly declines totaling 12%, but on-chain data tells a completely different story.
36% of circulating supply locked in staking hits a historic high, while tradable chips are rapidly shrinking. Ancient whales, silent for 11 years, transferred out 5,000 ETH, with 1,500 flowing into CEX — old money is moving, direction unclear. Meanwhile, BitMine increased holdings against the trend to 6.05 million ETH, institutional buying has not exited.
Technical indicators show bullish-bearish divergence: daily MACD death cross + RSI at 37 approaching oversold, but 4-hour chart shows signs of bottom volume expansion. Bollinger lower band at $2,310 tested multiple times without breaking, bearish momentum is waning.
Key watershed: resistance at 2,425 (20-day moving average) must not be broken to maintain the weak pattern; if support at 2,282 holds on a second test, it will form a W-bottom reversal pattern with a theoretical target of $2,550.
Tonight's Federal Reserve decision is the last card — dovish expectations are rising, ETH is expected to leverage this to confirm the bottom. Recommended operation: staggered entry between 2,280-2,310, stop loss at 2,220, target at 2,425. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Storage Divergence: The Starting Gun Is in SK Hynix's Hands
On Friday, the storage sector did not rise uniformly but rather split: Micron closed up 2.46%, SK Hynix's Korean shares rose 4.42%; SanDisk fell 1.82%, Western Digital dropped 2.97%. The trigger was SK Hynix withdrawing Solidigm's US IPO, which the market immediately interpreted as a reduction in NAND expansion funding, temporarily easing concerns about oversupply. As a major NAND player, Micron's price expectations are more stable, naturally benefiting first.
Western Digital was hit despite exceeding earnings expectations the day before; the market worries about the sustainability of price increases and rising capital expenditures; SanDisk lacks independent catalysts and can only follow the sector, falling behind if it can't keep up. Keep a close eye on the earnings calendar: SK Hynix reports Q3 on Wednesday, October 28, with institutions already revising operating profit expectations above 76 trillion KRW; Micron's last report was at the end of September, with the next one pending; Western Digital just reported, with the next wave expected in January next year.
Directionally, storage is not a broad rally but selective gains. If SK Hynix's numbers explode, Micron is likely to follow; whether HBM4 can boost profitability depends on Wednesday's report.
Conclusion: In the short term, watch SK Hynix's Q3 and HBM4 guidance; in the medium term, focus on NAND supply expectations and capital expenditures; don't mistake a sector rebound for a universal positive—picking the right players is more important than chasing the sector.10.29 BTC Morning Trading Plan (Public Version)
Short Position Plan $BTC
Entry Range: Around 810-818
Stop Loss Defense: 822 (If broken, stop loss; bullish trend forms, execute plan B⬇️)
Take Profit Levels:
First Target: 802
Range Target: 796
Trend Target: Around 788
Long-term Target: Below 780
Operational Factors: Price has retraced to the middle Bollinger Band support near 800, the band opening is not wide, volume increased on the decline, indicating a narrow range consolidation repair. MACD is below the zero line, market depth observation shows a bearish volume signal.
Operational Suggestion: Trade within the range only, watch the first and range targets.
Plan B
If the short entry range is not reached or price breaks below 796, execute.
Long Position Plan $ETH
Entry Range: 792-796
Stop Loss Defense: 788
Take Profit Levels:
First Target: 804
Range Target: Around 812
Trend Target: Above 820
Long-term Target: Above 828
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 For this kind of order, I first ask how much can be earned at most and how much can be lost at worst, then guess the direction. The profit of a short position has an upper limit, but the reverse risk cannot be simply capped at the principal; leverage also compresses the space for error correction.
Core Trader 07 just opened a short position on TSLA with 10x leverage, nominal position about $50,000, reference price $401.2. This is opening the position, not realized profit.
My judgment: Without an exit plan, the odds of this trade are unclear. Based on this position, if the price moves 1% against it, the floating loss is about $500; if it moves about 10% against it, it may approach the margin tolerance range, which also depends on the margin mode. Only if the expected profit space is significantly greater than the planned stop loss and leaves room for slippage do I think it’s worth studying; otherwise, even if the direction is guessed correctly, the expectation may not be good.
If you were to evaluate this 10x short position, would you value the win rate of the direction more, or the odds between take profit and stop loss? Why?If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set a rule: if the stablecoin settlement scale grows and partners continuously move from "queuing" to actual usage, then increase the observation weight on payment implementation; only a jump in scale numbers alone does not trigger it. I haven't fully grasped quantitative analysis yet, but I'm already a bit wary of relying on a single indicator 🤖
Visa disclosed in its Q4 FY2026 earnings call that the annualized transaction volume of stablecoin settlements has exceeded $25 billion, a 10-fold year-over-year increase, currently supporting 10 blockchains and operating across all 5 regions.
My judgment is that this has greater significance for business validation of stablecoin payments than as a market indicator for any single chain. Settlement volume is at least closer to actual usage than partnership intentions; covering multiple chains also means the platform's overall growth cannot be directly attributed as an exclusive advantage of any single chain.
The loophole in this rule is also obvious: annualized volume does not equal the volume already completed for the entire year, and growth rate alone cannot independently indicate whether usage is sustained. With over 300 partners in the pipeline, I would treat this as a condition pending verification rather than as already implemented customers. If subsequent disclosures reveal actual integration and sustained usage, I will then increase the confidence in my judgment—this is my reasoning.
Next, I want to focus on the step from "intention to usage," reminding myself not to mistake a nice growth rate as the answer to the entire strategy.Google Cloud revenue doubled, but the stock price dropped 10% overnight. I’m not catching this knife yet.
Q3 revenue was $127.6 billion, up 25% year-over-year, but still more than $600 million below expectations; adjusted EPS was 2.67, versus an expected 3.02.
Google Cloud was the highlight, with revenue of $30.7 billion, up 103% year-over-year.
The problem lies in cash: quarterly capital expenditures were $51.3 billion, free cash flow was negative $9.07 billion, following negative $5.86 billion last quarter—two consecutive quarters burning cash.
The company also indicated capital expenditures will increase significantly next year.
GOOGL contracts dropped from 328 all the way down to 288, now around 293, with daily MA20 at about 336 and MA50 at about 341 overhead.
I think the market isn’t rejecting AI; it’s starting to calculate the payback: cloud is making money, but the burn rate is faster.
Last week I said the pullback below 318 wasn’t over, and this time it was confirmed with a big bearish candle.
I’m watching for now.
I’ll talk about recovery after reclaiming 318 (the consolidation lower boundary before the earnings); if it breaks below the low of this bearish candle at 288, I’ll keep waiting.
Do you think Google’s AI investment is a golden pit or the start of a valuation reset?
$GOOGL #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ #Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady, December Rate Hike Disagreement Heats Up
The leader has something to say
The Federal Reserve announced in the early morning that it will keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the range at 3.75% to 4.00%. The vote was 10 to 2, with Cook and Harker voting for a 25 basis point rate hike. The statement changed the economy description from "moderate expansion" to "strong expansion," but removed the previous phrase "rate hikes will help bring inflation back to 2% faster." Waller's press conference gave no forward guidance and emphasized that decisions are not influenced by politics.
I believe this meeting appears to hold steady on the surface but is hawkish underneath. The comments section is accurate; in September it was a unanimous 12-0 vote, now there are two votes for a rate hike. With a strong economy and high inflation, plus the removal of dovish language, the market still prices in a high chance of a December rate hike.
The market reacted directly, with BTC dropping 1.62%.
This is the current deadlock. Strong economy and stubborn inflation mean the Federal Reserve can't ease up, so risk assets remain suppressed. BTC took a waterfall drop last night; now we watch if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Don't chase the rally or sell in panic; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; make sure to set your stop losses. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Supply side eases VS demand side delivers answers, I think this comparison is more useful than just saying "exchange outflows are bullish." CryptoQuant analyst CoinNiel pointed out that as of October 27 (UTC), Bitcoin exchanges shifted from a net inflow of 7,278 coins the previous day to a net outflow of 12,702 coins, but the evidence still supports a neutral stance.
I prefer to see it as an improvement on the supply side, not a confirmation on the demand side. Although both 7-day and 30-day periods show net outflows, there were 4 days of net inflows in the past 7 days. A one-day reversal is quite eye-catching, but looking over a longer period, the direction is still fluctuating and cannot be directly interpreted as sustained reluctance to sell.
On the demand side, the funding rate is +0.00762%, higher than the 7-day and 30-day averages; open interest contracts increased by only 0.56% over 7 days. My understanding is that bulls have a tendency but have not yet taken obvious expanded positions to support it; sentiment and incremental volume cannot be equated.
Looking at long-term holders, LTH-SOPR dropped from 1.1657 to 1.0124, which only indicates that profit margins when selling have narrowed, not that less is being sold. I also tend to imagine "earning less" as "not selling," but this step must be resisted.
So my judgment is: supply improvement is meaningful, but whether demand can take over is the next question. If you had to prioritize waiting for one signal, which side would you stand on: the supply evidence of continuous net outflows, or the demand evidence of sustained spot buying?Putting the exchange fee on Pyth, I wanted to see the exception handling branch as soon as I read this. 💻 The input for this review is: Yield Basis disclosure fee bypass path, proposed WETH fix plan, intended to add deposit debt ratio check, with the related vote scheduled to end on October 29.
My judgment is that whether the fee rules are reliable is more important than adding another charging logic. Hooking to Pyth means the fee calculation introduces an external dependency. If the price updates are not timely, whether the charging can remain consistent is the potential bug I worry about; this is my speculation, as the material did not explain the exception handling details.
If I were to make changes, I would first add handling rules for price exceptions, then test whether normal exchanges and boundary operations follow the same billing logic. I don't want to consider acceptance passed just by running the normal path; next, I will watch whether the plan clearly writes these boundary conditions.This meeting might end up worse than predicted.
It's the same familiar pattern and formula; just a different timing, and people think this time is different, but their hands don't listen and rush in again.
It pulled up to 81800, and those who can't control their hands probably rushed in to buy more, thinking there would be a big rebound. But the result was a pull-up followed by a shakeout. Many believe this is a shakeout, and indeed it is, but how long will it last? How far down will it shake out? You can't guess. The big trend has already reversed, and the hope for going north is very slim. This time, they didn't even dare to release the dot plot; it feels like a big game is being played, and the outcome might be even worse.
News can only play a supporting role. Why is it still going south if there's no rate hike this time? Shouldn't it be going north? Many are confused. Let me tell you clearly: the big trend of the market has changed, and the significance of the news is no longer great; it’s more like a smokescreen to assist capital outflows. The results are out, but don't mistake the rate hold for a positive signal; this is a hawkish trap. Two rate hike votes have directly revealed the bottom cards, yet the market is still self-deceiving, thinking that no rise means dovishness. I'm here to make it clear: Cook and Harker voted for a rate hike, indicating the Fed is close to splitting internally over how aggressively to fight inflation. Waller gave no forward guidance, plainly telling you everything depends on the data. Now with such a big split on December hikes, and Q3 GDP and PCE about to drop, on-exchange funds lack the confidence to hold firm; in this zero-sum game, whoever catches the flying knife dies.
Look at $BTC, the big coin; a slight dip means funds are voting with their feet. ETFs are all short-term players, quick in and out, no long-term liquidity. The overhead supply is heavy; until the macro thunder lands, only sideways movement is possible. Hold long-term spot firmly; don't chase highs in the short term. If you short for the short term, keep your stop loss tight; don't stubbornly hold and lose money without a stop loss.
Look at $ETH, the softest follower. The ecosystem has no breakout points, and funds lack support. When the market weakens, it falls fastest. Don't mistake sideways trading for stabilization; when BTC tests support, ETH's drop will be amplified. Control your hands; don't catch flying knives.
Look at $XAUT, gold, the most stable hard asset. High yields combined with rate hike divergence are driving safe-haven funds here, with central bank buying providing a floor. Once economic data bombs, gold will run independently. Don't let short-term sentiment trap your long-term logic.
Don't listen to misleading news; no dovish turn means a slow, painful cut. Tonight's GDP and PCE are the real tests. Control your hands; don't bet on a one-sided move. Surviving this meat grinder and preserving your principal is more important than anything. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Google Cloud up 82%, this money has little to do with the crypto circle. Tracing the 82% figure down, the realization is in the cloud and chip chain—Meta just raised its capital expenditure guidance, SK Hynix's quarterly revenue exceeded 100 trillion Korean won, the money is circulating between computing power and storage, and for now, none of it flows into token pricing.
1. Revenue has indeed picked up, but the giants spend money first and earn later; capital expenditure is still increasing, and returns will take a few quarters to show up in the profit statement. 2. On the crypto side, connecting to the AI narrative, what we see so far is leverage: that 25x $ETH long position from Maji was liquidated, leaving the account with only $5,357. No new incremental funds are seen; all added is position size. 3. On the spot side, as discussed before, the ETF direction flips daily, with a net inflow of $210 million on Friday and a net outflow of $130 million on Monday; buying is not decisive.
My conditions for $ETH here are: ETF net inflow for two consecutive days and price holding above the 60-day moving average, only then will I acknowledge real support on this chain; if it breaks the previous low and funding rates turn negative, consider AI money has bypassed the crypto circle.
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ #$ZEC Finally waited for you, luckily I didn't give up.
I am firmly bearish, expecting it to go below 1000. The NU7 upgrade benefits have already been realized in advance. October's trading volume is significantly lower than September's peak, and the upward momentum is insufficient. It hasn't been able to rise above 1300 for a while.
The EU AMLR 2027 will restrict privacy coins from listing, Grayscale ETF approval is uncertain, and regulatory pressure continues. The DeFi ecosystem has less than $2 million locked, with weak real-world application scenarios. Adding these up, it’s impossible to stay above 1000 $BTC $ETH The October FOMC is about to be announced.
The market expects the rate to remain at 4.00%, and the announced value is very likely to be 4%. The real variable lies in Powell's post-meeting speech, not the rate number itself.
Scenario 1: Maintain 4%, Powell leans dovish — no rate hike, and signals room for future rate cuts.
Impact: The dollar and US Treasury yields weaken, BTC and ETH may experience short-term spikes, but beware of a pullback after the surge.
Scenario 2: Maintain 4%, Powell leans hawkish — no rate hike, but emphasizes persistent inflation, delaying rate cuts, with none considered this year.
Impact: Most likely to trigger a "good news sell-off," expectations dashed, capital outflows, BTC and ETH fall in sync with Hynix, sharp spikes that easily trigger stop-losses.
Scenario 3: Rate hike to 4.25%.
The market has almost not priced this in; if it happens, it will directly hit risk assets, with the crypto sector and storage stocks under collective pressure, hard to withstand in the short term.
This time it's a double impact of the decision and the press conference: the decision comes first, followed by the speech. The two phases often move in opposite directions; a rally followed by a plunge is not uncommon. Manage your positions and set stop-losses properly.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Two documents placed side by side have a very special flavor.
A Japanese Bitcoin industry company announced a capital increase of 840 million yen, about 5.07 million USD, directed to Fulgur and ALC, with the agreement specifying full delivery in physical Bitcoin. The shares exchanged are not for money, but for coins.
The traditional approach is to issue shares for fiat currency, then buy coins through exchanges, incurring underwriting fees and spot price slippage. This time, all three steps are cut out; Bitcoin is transferred directly from the investor's cold wallet to the project's routing channel.
Where does the confidence come from? This company is building enterprise-level Lightning Network payment infrastructure, with a product called aurora. For the Lightning Network to operate, it inherently requires a large amount of spot coins to serve as routing liquidity reserves. Investors have idle coins, the project side urgently needs coins, so they exchange one-to-one, welding assets and business together.
On the other side is Robinhood's Q3 report. Total transaction revenue rose 19%, options and event contracts were very impressive, but crypto revenue fell 55% year-over-year, down to only 120 million USD.
With coin prices hanging high and intraday volatility suppressed very low, retail investors feel making quick money is no longer interesting and turn to options and prediction markets for higher leverage. Retail investors don't distrust, they just find it too slow.
Thus, the control has changed hands. Robinhood's crypto trading volume shrinks, highlighting that Strategy, Strive, BitMine buy coins in hundreds of millions of dollars. Supporting liquidity are dozens of corporate treasuries, ETFs, and sovereign funds.
Therefore, $BTC pricing is driven by balance sheets, not sentiment.This morning, the biggest gainer in CoinGecko's hot search was Initia (INIT). As of 10:00 AM Beijing time on 10/29, INIT was priced at $0.222, up 34.7% in 24h, 73% in 7 days, with a 24h trading volume of about $86.5 million, nearly double the market cap of $46.8 million.
News: On 10/23, Initia was exploited due to a MoveVM vulnerability, resulting in about $2.7 million in assets being cross-chain transferred; the mainnet and rollup were all suspended. On 10/28, the foundation announced funding to compensate affected iUSD collateral at a 1:1 ratio (about 1.08 million USDC, 105 ETH, 1.4 million AUSD), and the fix plan is under audit.
My view: This is a typical "bad news priced in + foundation backstop" rebound, with a rise of over 70% from the post-hack low. However, the chain has not restarted yet, with no specific date, and circulating supply accounts for only about 21% of total supply. Turnover exceeding market cap indicates chips are quite loose. The real catalysts ahead are the audit results and restart timing; a smooth restart will restore confidence. Until then, it’s mostly an emotional game.
$INIT Wow, this trade really burns the heart. I was scared when I opened my eyes this morning and saw a loss of 200u. I didn't check the order while squeezing into the subway just now, but when I got to the company and opened my phone, the $BTC short position was actually profitable.
It seems that inflation in 🇺🇸 is indeed very serious. Actually, I study macroeconomics, and to some extent, I believe inflation is related to its domestic bubble. When they say their economy is doing well, it's both true and false. If the output value is insufficient to support economic development, it will actually keep increasing the living costs for ordinary people.
I think 🇺🇸 is afraid of a repeat of the previous internet bubble or the 2008 financial crisis, so this time they are determined to maintain a strong stance to kill valuations and bubbles.
I also shared my views at 1 a.m., which are pretty much what I thought: not raising interest rates isn't necessarily a good thing! Even though they didn't raise rates, the overall Fed stance is still hawkish. I said before that not raising rates isn't necessarily good because rate hikes are inevitable. Not raising rates only pushes the market's rate hike expectations further out. So crypto $BTC will just keep waiting.
This feels like a prisoner's dilemma and a paradox. Both raising and not raising rates are unfriendly to crypto $BTC; the difference is just short-term pain versus long-term pain. Raising rates is short-term pain, not raising rates is long-term pain—it's torture!
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 The correlation chart of Bitcoin and gold on the 4-hour timeframe sends a clear warning signal to buyers. These two assets, traditionally seen as stores of value, have both faced significant selling pressure since the end of September, moving almost in sync. $BTC $XAU
The core issue lies in interest rates. Both gold and Bitcoin are non-yielding assets, so when expectations of monetary tightening rise, large amounts of capital immediately withdraw to seek safer bond yields.
The market reflects extremely heavy pressure on the macroeconomic front:
Since the end of September, both Bitcoin and gold prices have dropped by about 7%.
- Gold performance in the comparison chart: -10.70%
- Bitcoin performance in the comparison chart: -11.56%
- Market probability of a rate hike in December: 72%
If bulls insist on bottom-fishing too early, they currently face very high risks. When the probability of a rate hike reaches such a high level, market liquidity will continue to dry up. The only bright spot is that there is now an opportunity to accumulate stocks for the next cycle at reasonable prices, but this is definitely not the time to use leverage.