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#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
Positive factors supporting better-than-expected performance
1. Holding 8 NBM long-term contracts, ensuring high minimum revenue, with strong certainty of AI flash memory orders from data centers;
2. NAND flash memory prices remain on the rise, providing significant gross margin flexibility;
3. Data center and edge business are the main growth drivers, having consecutively exceeded expectations in the first two quarters, with strong customer volume willingness.
Negative factors and risks making it difficult to significantly exceed expectations (also the market's main concern)
1. Management proactively lowered guidance, fearing performance may not meet expectations; the company itself has not given an aggressive outlook;
2. The stock price has already priced in high growth and long-term contract benefits, with market expectations set very high;
3. Consumer flash memory demand is weak, growth is highly tied to cloud providers; if customer pace slows or orders are cut, it is easy to hit the line;
4. Competitors (SK Hynix, Kioxia) are gradually restoring supply, which will slow the price increase slope going forward.The rate decision itself is a formality. More than 90% of the market has already priced a hold, so the real event is the language that follows: whether the statement and press conference leave December tightening on the table. Bets on a December hike have climbed above 70%, which tells you the hawkish expectation was loaded well before tonight. That is where the asymmetry sits. The popular line that bad news is fully absorbed, and therefore the announcement becomes good news, is only half true. I almost wanted to report the market software for repair after watching: the AI responsible for predicting the future is getting hit, while the Meme responsible for entertaining is rising. It seems the market is holding a meeting, or maybe the atmosphere team won the outstanding employee award 😂
PANews cites SoSoValue data: the Meme sector rose 2.97% in 24 hours, with $PEPE up 14.98%; the NFT sector rose 2.56%, MPLX up 36.62%, and the headline also mentioned the AI sector falling more than 8% again. My judgment is that it's a localized excitement, still far from a full-scale strengthening: overall, it remains in a volatile consolidation; individual coins' gains far exceed their sectors, so you can't take the top performers as representative of the whole class; AI is clearly lagging, which also shows different narratives are not warming up simultaneously.
I will pay more attention to whether the strength can spread, rather than who steals the spotlight. Are you on the side of "continuing to watch Meme's relative strength," or "waiting for AI to stop falling before observing"—the atmosphere team or the technical department, who do you give the observation seat ticket to?$ETH elections are sentiment-driven, but capital is the main storyline!!!
The US election results are undecided, and the market is preemptively speculating on policy directions: if the Democrats control both chambers, crypto regulation may tighten; if a divided Congress forms, policies will check each other, resulting in milder regulation; if the Republicans dominate, the industry environment will be more relaxed.
Currently, with vote counting unclear, capital is withdrawing first as a risk-averse move, which is a short-term behavior driven by sentiment rather than substantive policy implementation.
The real price pressure comes from several hard factors:
ETH ETF continues to see net outflows, institutional funds are exiting month by month, and insufficient buying directly suppresses prices; US inflation data is relatively strong, delaying market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and in a high-interest-rate environment, capital prefers low-risk assets, with volatile assets like Ethereum hit first;
Additionally, network upgrade progress is below expectations, lacking positive catalysts, while competitors like Solana divert funds, resulting in a short-term lack of upward momentum.
The subsequent trend is not hard to predict: before the election results are finalized in the short term, a high probability of consolidation and oscillation exists, with $2250–$2300 as important support; if broken, the range to watch is $2150–$2180, mostly driven by sentiment-induced sell-offs, so there is no need to panic sell blindly; once results become clear and uncertainty fades, after all negative factors are out, it will be an opportunity for recovery, and rebounds will be stronger when policy expectations are more favorable.
In the medium term, the exchange ETH supply continues to decline, staking rate exceeds 35%, a large amount of tokens are locked long-term, effectively reducing selling pressure. When rate cut expectations return and capital flows back, Ethereum will recover its market.The resolution has been finalized. It remains unchanged, as expected.
Then BTC dropped from 81,800 back below 80,000.
Last night I said, the real movement wouldn’t be the resolution itself, but the few words in the press conference. Now it seems the movement is in the direction of expectations, not the price.
Three details are worth noting:
1. The vote was 10 to 2. The two opposing votes were for "raising rates," not "cutting rates." Among the dissenters was Cook, who had been seen as a centrist before; this is her first opposition since taking office. The midfield players are starting to push forward.
2. The probability of a rate hike in December rose from 78.3% before the meeting to 85% after. After a meeting with "no rate hike," the market actually believes more in a hike next time.
3. The rebound from 79,200 to 81,300 was driven by short covering, not new money coming in. Coinbase premium has been negative these days, and spot demand in the US has not picked up.
So the current picture is: the 10-year US Treasury yield stands above 5%, gold is at a high of 4,070, and money hasn’t flowed into the crypto space.
The 80,000 level has been tested for almost a week.
Stayed up late watching last night, here’s a quick summary from the comments:
1 Saw no movement and went to sleep 2 Stayed up until 2 AM waiting in vain 3 Never planned to watch anyway
Tonight at 20:30 there will be Q3 GDP and PCE data
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #三星Q3营业利润创新高，净利润不及预期 Samsung's Q3 operating profit hit a record high, but net profit fell short of expectations. Samsung's Q3 operating profit was 107.4 trillion KRW, about $80.2 billion, a year-on-year surge of 782.5%, breaking 100 trillion for the first time, a historic high. However, the stock price fell 2.42% that day, and the Korean Composite Index dropped 2.62%.
The numbers exploded, but the stock price fell. The issue is not the profit, but the buyer structure. A comment in the discussion section revealed: Samsung and Hynix's buying only remains in buybacks, and the Korean stock market is starting to decouple from the global AI trend. The KOSPI has retreated from the historical high of 9114 to 6625, a drop of 27.3%. Meanwhile, the US, Japanese, and Taiwanese stock markets are still hitting new highs.
AI demand is driving up prices for HBM, DRAM, and NAND, and Samsung has benefited from this dividend. But the market worries about how long the memory boom can last. Once expansion changes supply and demand, prices will have to come down. The full financial report on October 29 will disclose the business structure and future outlook, which will provide clearer insight.Alphabet’s Q3 shows why revenue growth and reported earnings need to be read together.
Results released on Oct 28 included:
• Revenue: $127.58B, up 25% YoY
• Operating income: $40.58B, up 30%
• Operating margin: 31.8%
• Net income: $26.17B, down about 25%
• GAAP diluted EPS: $2.12
Operating profit increased even as net income fell. Equity securities losses weighed on the bottom line, so the net profit decline should not be read as a comparable deterioration in operating performance.
Google Cloud stood out. Revenue grew 103% to $30.7B, supported by enterprise AI infrastructure, AI solutions and core cloud services. TPU system sales also contributed meaningfully.
That mix matters. Equipment sales and ongoing cloud consumption can have different revenue and margin profiles. The headline growth rate shows momentum, while its composition helps explain how demand translates into earnings.
Search revenue grew 12%, with management reporting its strongest year-over-year query growth in five years. Growing usage and revenue offer a different perspective from whether results meet market forecasts.
Investment remains central to the outlook. Alphabet maintained its 2026 capital expenditure guidance of $195B-$205B and expects spending to increase significantly in 2027.
The commercial challenge is aligning that investment with durable demand. New infrastructure can support more workloads, but the financial benefits depend on deployment, utilization and the cost of serving customers.
The quarter is neither simply a growth story nor simply an earnings decline. Cloud momentum, investment-related losses and infrastructure spending need to be assessed separately. Together, they explain why strong operating growth can coexist with pressure on reported profit.
Can cloud momentum translate into durable earnings as AI investment expands?
#GoogleQ3MixedResults In the short term, the downward pressure on cryptocurrencies has indeed not yet been lifted, but whether they will continue to fall depends on the interplay of several key variables, rather than a single Federal Reserve decision. Why did it plunge in the early morning? Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, the signals released were not "dovish": · Hawkish division: The voting ratio was 10:2, with two officials advocating an immediate 25 basis point rate hike, indicating a low tolerance for inflation internally. · Persistent inflation: The statement emphasized that inflation is "still high," and Waller reiterated the goal of achieving 2%, without giving clear guidance on ending tightening. · Expectation suppression: Market (CME) data show that traders believe there is a 78.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December. This means the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets (such as cryptocurrencies) is expected to rise. Will it continue to fall? The market currently faces a combination of macro suppression and internal vulnerabilities, with short-term risks elevated: · Macro level (negative): Oil prices have recently strengthened (testing $102), reinforcing inflation expectations and directly suppressing risk appetite. As long as rate hike expectations do not cool down, the crypto market will find it difficult to obtain sustained liquidity support. · Capital level (structural vulnerability): Although Bitcoin is barely holding near $80,000, ETF funds have a "mismatch" risk (only BlackRock inflows, with large outflows elsewhere); Ethereum ETFs have been bleeding for several consecutive weeks, lacking institutional buying support. · Technical level (key points): Bitcoin is testing 2,28 The Jenner hard fork of BNB Chain has been launched on the BSC testnet. The most noteworthy aspect of this upgrade is that it allocates a dedicated quota of Gas per block: 5% of the Gas in each block is set aside exclusively for payment-related expenses. This design may seem subtle, but it changes the underlying resource allocation logic.
Previously, all on-chain operations competed within a single Gas channel. When the market heats up, ordinary transfers, contract calls, and payment settlements all fight for the same block space, with priority given to whoever bids higher. This is the biggest concern for payment services: they require stability and predictability, not competition with speculative transactions for block space. Jenner carves out 5% separately, effectively creating a dedicated lane for payments, so even if the network is congested, this portion remains unoccupied by others.
The 5% allocation also reflects a cautious approach. Instead of providing a large quota all at once, it opens a small channel first to observe actual demand before deciding whether to increase it. This gradual scaling is more stable than immediately allocating a large proportion.
Why is BNB Chain putting in this effort? It has always aimed to make on-chain payments a fundamental use case, including stablecoin settlements, cross-border micro-transfers, and merchant acquiring. For these scenarios to take off, the prerequisite is that fees are calculable and confirmations are reliable, rather than each transaction gambling on the current Gas market.
The testnet launch comes first, with the mainnet to follow later, so there is no immediate price impact. But for teams building payment applications, this change carries more weight than a one-time TPS increase. $BNBAn order has arrived. Don't chase it yet. ⚡Core Trader 14 just opened a long position on $BTC with 40x leverage, nominal position about $842,800. I'm more interested in the entry rhythm, not taking a large order as a direct bullish signal.
My judgment: This monitoring is suitable for alerting to watch the market, not a direct trigger to enter. The nominal amount is amplified by leverage, not equal to the same principal invested; roughly calculated at 40x, a reverse move of about 2.5% could wipe out the initial margin, and actual factors like maintenance margin also apply. Besides, the monitor provides transaction info, not his next retreat plan.
For short-term trading, I'd rather be half a beat slower. If the price has already moved away after the news, I'd give up chasing this move; if considering entry, I need to clarify invalidation conditions first, can't use someone else's position as my stop loss. When facing such a high-leverage large order, would you wait for a pullback confirmation or skip this opportunity directly?As of the afternoon of October 28, 2026, BTC is still fluctuating repeatedly around $80,000. Macro news keeps coming one after another; besides the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan's policy meeting on Friday, October 30, is also in focus. According to current pre-meeting expectations, the market leans toward the Bank of Japan pausing rate hikes in October. The real distinction to make is whether it’s a dovish pause or a hawkish pause. Even if both sides hold steady, if the statement signals paving the way for a rate hike in December, the market will interpret it differently. I will also watch the pace of the Fed and the Bank of Japan, as well as their tolerance for inflation. Previously, Japan aimed to push inflation to 2%, but now officials are starting to worry about inflation getting out of control. If this concern dominates the meeting, even if rates remain unchanged, a hawkish tone could push up Japanese bond yields and strengthen the yen. There are two scenarios here. If both sides lean hawkish, we can’t simply assume the US-Japan interest rate differential remains unchanged; it depends on who is tougher and what the market originally expected. If the Fed is dovish or neutral but the Bank of Japan is clearly hawkish, the US-Japan interest rate differential may narrow, and funds relying on this spread might shrink, adding pressure to risk assets. The timing is also tight, with the meeting at the end of Friday’s session, so the weekend and the meeting’s effects stack up. So my idea is simple: if you have a conservative style, wait for the meeting outcome before deciding whether to participate. Missing a segment of volatility in exchange for clearer information is also a choice. Returning to Bitcoin’s daily chart: the 365-day moving average we discussed last week was around $78,500; the bull-bear transition zone was about $76,000. I will continue to watch these two levels.15-minute ETH｜Supertrend + LuxAlgo ST 3D Surface Analysis
Current price 2311.22, Supertrend threshold 2329.17
Supertrend: Price has broken below the trendline, trend indicator turned red, 15-minute timeframe switched from bullish to bearish. 2329.17 is the key resistance; rebounds to this area are the primary observation zone for bears.
ST 3D Surface (parameter sensitivity heatmap): Horizontal axis is multiplier, vertical axis is period, color blocks represent backtest win rate. Red area = low win rate, green = high win rate; the current optimal parameters cluster around Len14 Mult1.5 (38.66). This parameter combination historically yields a higher win rate for this asset, suitable as a reference template but not directly for market prediction.
Market structure: Previous high at 2344.11 is a strong liquidity top; as long as price does not reclaim this level, the overall structure remains bearish; recent low at 2303 is the first support, breaking below it will continue to sweep liquidity downward.
Trading reference
Rebound target range 2327–2330 (Supertrend resistance), wait for a minor timeframe CHoCH and order flow reversal before attempting shorts, stop loss placed above 2339;
If volume surges and price stabilizes above 2344.11, the bearish structure fails, abandon shorting ideas.
Downside defense support: 2303, a valid break opens further downside space.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC In the futures market, when I see a reduction in open interest, I usually first distinguish whether it is due to capital withdrawal or position adjustment; it cannot be directly interpreted as a collapse in spot demand. This message also made me think that between capital reports and market direction, there are several layers of judgment.
According to SoSoValue data, on October 28th Eastern Time, the total net outflow of the US $SOL spot ETF was $5.6576 million, with only Bitwise's BSOL showing a net outflow that day; the total net asset value of such ETFs is $1.558 billion, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $1.507 billion.
My judgment is that this message has more value for channel observation but is not sufficient to indicate a weakening of spot demand: the outflow is concentrated in one product and cannot represent all holders; the crypto market also has on-chain and around-the-clock trading, and ETFs are just one window. I will further verify changes in fund shares and on-chain capital movements. For friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets, what data do you use to distinguish between fund redemptions and actual spot withdrawals? Empty, empty, empty, living in the palace! I told you that not raising interest rates is not good for crypto $BTC, yet so many guys criticized me before.
Is it hard to understand? Of course, I know that raising interest rates will drain liquidity, but now the crypto $BTC ETF keeps flowing out, so where is the liquidity? To put it bluntly, there's nothing left to drain!
$BTC is now just waiting for the interest rate hike to be confirmed, for market panic and uncertainty to be established, only then will institutions be willing to buy in. Otherwise, as long as the interest rate hike remains undecided, institutions are actually panicking and dare not enter, okay?
If you really want the big coin to go up, then hurry up and raise interest rates! Not the other way around, the logic is completely different, okay?
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 First, a bit of cold water: I don't take this small pullback as a bottom-fishing signal. Seeing the "Fear and Greed Index at 51," I actually want to remind you that neutral is not a safety net, so don't get excited too quickly.
At 10 AM Beijing time, Hyperliquid perpetual public market shows $BTC at $80,110, down 1.00% in 24 hours, funding rate 0.0011%/hour; ETH down 1.64%, funding rate -0.0007%/hour. I'm temporarily bearish: both falling simultaneously, BTC's relative resilience doesn't mean the market is strengthening; one positive and one negative funding rate indicates divergent position sentiment, so you can't directly interpret a local negative funding rate as a short squeeze prelude.
The bulls might also be right; this could just be a normal pullback. If BTC and ETH can both stop falling and the rebound is supported by volume, I will change my view. With this set of prices and funding rates, are you long or short? Explain your reasons, don't just state the direction. ✅$BTC Historical Comparison: Since the 2019 bull market began, it has almost never touched the STH‑MVRV average after standing above STH‑RP; in 2023 it only retested once; this round has already retested twice, and the initial rally strength is weaker than the previous two rounds. 👉Inference: Since the upward breakout power is relatively weak, if a correction occurs later, the depth of the decline is very likely not to be particularly exaggerated, and it won't crash directly in one step. Let's break down the 4 core points separately: 1️⃣ The early bull structure has not been broken Whether looking at on-chain indicators or the large-cycle K-line pattern, the underlying framework still belongs to the early stage of a bull market. Many people have had their mindset broken by repeated shocks and washouts, shouting every day that the bear market is coming again, but the foundation of the major trend is still there, which is the most critical baseline. 2️⃣ 365D SMA ≈77.4K, strong support lifeline Looking back historically, after the bear-to-bull transition entering the early bull phase, except for sudden black swan events like the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak, it is difficult to have a sustained effective break below this moving average. This is a very key defensive position in this round. 3️⃣ STH‑RP≈75.7K, golden ambush zone: 77.4K‑75.7K Even if extreme market conditions bring the price into this range, this is an opportunity zone, not a panic selling zone. Of course, as you said, the probability of triggering this is not high, so there is no need to be overly anxious in advance to short at this position. 4️⃣ New signal: 128DMA just golden crossed 200DMA A golden cross is a bullish technical signal, but the key is not "golden cross = immediate surge," it depends on whether it can hold steadily. Not raising interest rates is just defusing a hidden bomb, not handing out red envelopes.
What the market really needs to be wary of is the ebbing of rate cut expectations. The probability of keeping rates unchanged through 2027 has quietly surpassed the expectation of rate cuts—high interest rates will linger longer at elevated levels.
Looking ahead, stop fixating on the old script of whether to raise rates or not. The real battlefield has already shifted—closely watch oil price fluctuations, inflation stickiness, capital flows, the strength of the dollar, and the trajectory of real interest rates. These are the core themes that will dominate market trends going forward. $BTC $ETH #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Google $GOOGL really seems a bit unfair! AI has also pushed cloud business growth.
But as soon as the earnings report came out, the stock price took a slap?
But thinking carefully, this matter is not that simple. Cloud business grew 82%.
Sounds impressive, but the problem is the hotter AI gets, the more money Google has to pour in.
Data centers need to be built, chips need to be bought, computing power must be expanded continuously. Revenue is rising, but investments are also increasing. The market's real worry is not that Google can't make money now, but how much profit can be recovered in the future from all this money spent?
Even more interesting is that while AI brings new growth to Google, it might also change the way search makes money. Previously, users searched for things and Google made money from ads. In the future, users will ask AI directly.
Can advertising still maintain its original monetization efficiency? So the current AI market is not just about whose technology is better, but who can turn technology into profit and who can maintain their cash flow while investing crazily.
What do you think?
Is Google's recent drop an overreaction by the market,
or has capital finally started to seriously calculate the AI account?#The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, December rate hike disagreements intensify
$BTC The crash early this morning was brutal, with the Fed's hawkish stance landing and whales frantically depositing to exchanges, directly slashing BTC below 80,000. $ETH was even worse, being smashed through 2300. Looking at the data, Ethereum's sell orders have surged to 69%, and market sentiment is extremely fearful.
Switching to the 3-minute short-term chart, it's a one-way plunge. $BTC waterfall-dived from above 81,700 to around 79,600, and ETH also sharply dropped from 2390 straight down to 2292. All moving averages were left behind, with a large divergence. But looking closely at the MACD below, the green bars have started to appear, indicating that the short-term extreme selling pressure is nearly exhausted.
At this point, we need to be cautious of a short-term risk: a technical oversold rebound.
The drop was too fast and steep, with huge profits for shorts. Tonight at 20:30, the core PCE price index will be released. The market is jittery; if the data disappoints, those shorts who built positions at high levels will definitely rush to take profits in a stampede. If short covering occurs, it could easily trigger a rapid, retaliatory rebound.
Chasing shorts now is like catching a flying knife. Those holding short positions should take profits in batches and secure gains; those looking to enter should wait for this rebound to push up—BTC around 80,500, ETH around 2350—and after resistance is met, then consider shorting again.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Short-term capital inflows are returning, but a trend reversal isn’t confirmed yet.
BTC leads in structure, $ETH offers higher upside with greater risk, while SOL shows mixed flows.
Short-term sentiment is improving, but 30D outflows signal ongoing deleveraging.
#AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#FedKeepsRatesUnchanged #微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 Earnings report shows a tale of two extremes: The logic of the AI market changed overnight
On the same night, Microsoft rose while Google fell, with the market voting with its feet to give the clearest answer: The AI money-burning story no longer works; capital only recognizes those who can deliver real returns.
Microsoft delivered an excellent report card: total revenue of $92.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year; Azure growth accelerated from 42% last quarter to 48%, with quarterly revenue of $33.2 billion; next quarter guidance even targets 49%-50%. Both revenue and EPS beat expectations, with after-hours trading up nearly 3%, approaching a record high. Even with next quarter's capital expenditure expected to hit $50 billion, the market is willing to pay for growth certainty.
On the other hand, Google Cloud revenue doubled to $30.7 billion but couldn't support the overall market: total revenue missed expectations, EPS was only $2.12, significantly below market forecasts, with quarterly free cash flow at -$9.1 billion. Coupled with weak search ad growth and unclear AI query monetization paths, shares plunged nearly 10% after hours.
A deeper industry signal is that the AI market has fully shifted from "speculating on expectations" to "calculating returns." Even though Microsoft's Copilot office penetration is only 6.6% and concerns about cloud business gross margin decline persist, at least growth has been realized; once the story falls apart, the market immediately votes with its feet.
The divergence has just begun. Who will be the next to falter?
$MSFT $GOOGL Pause in rate hikes is not good news, BTC surges then falls back
The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.75%—4.00%, but this time it was not dovish. The vote was 10:2, with two members demanding an immediate 25 basis point hike. The statement continued to emphasize a strong economy and elevated inflation, with market expectations for another hike in December rising to about 86%.
BTC surged to a high of $81,674, then fell back to around $80,446. Short-term support remains at $80,000, with resistance still at $81,600—$82,000. Without volume to hold above this range, I don’t consider the rebound a confirmed breakout.
Additionally, this rebound feels a bit "hollow": leveraged funds have not clearly followed, ETFs are still seeing outflows, and there is significant divergence between bulls and bears.
This pause in rate hikes was expected; December is the main event. BTC and ETH are both temporarily viewed as rebounding, but no chasing of longs.
It’s a pity that SanDisk’s No28 didn’t hold. $HYPE Big brother Maji's $20 million HYPE short position is really eye-catching. Shorted at 66, with a clear liquidation line set at 97.75, and now the price is stubbornly holding at a high level. Not only is he suffering heavy unrealized losses, but he also has to pay high funding fees every day.
The bullish main force on the market is too obvious; there's no need for a big show to pump the price. They just need to push it up slightly along the trend, break through this clear liquidation line, and the massive short position forced liquidations will trigger market buy orders that can instantly send the price soaring. Such a liquidity squeeze served on a silver platter—how could the main force possibly let it go?
#HYPE
$HYPE
👇BTC reached a high near 81,700 today. But this is not a "clean sweep before takeoff," it feels more like a breather after a prolonged drop.
There is spot buying around 77,000–80,000, and the BTC holdings between 79,000–81,000 have increased by about 170,000 BTC over several days, indicating that some are genuinely buying with real money. However, the problem is: futures open interest remains at a five-week high, the funding rate annualizes to about 9.8%, and the bulls are still paying to hold their positions. The downside is still being absorbed, but leverage hasn't been cleared; if it breaks down, it could trigger a chain liquidation.
The area near 81,300 keeps getting sold off. ETFs have recently seen inflows, but it looks more like support rather than a strong push.
The rate decision meeting was a "hawkish pause," not a dovish turn.
Interest rates remain unchanged, but the 10:2 vote shows two members still want to raise rates; Powell gave no hint of a rate cut. Coupled with Middle East tensions and rising oil prices, inflationary pressure is back up, making it hard for December rate hike expectations to cool significantly. So this rebound feels more like an emotional repair from "uncertainty temporarily settling," not fresh liquidity from the Fed.
Conclusion: The high probability is still a range-bound movement between 79,000 and 84,500.
To break upward, BTC needs to firmly hold above 82,500 and have spot buying absorb the selling pressure at 81,300 to have a chance to reach 84,000–85,000; on the downside, if it effectively breaks below 79,000, bull leverage could be liquidated in a chain reaction, quickly dropping to around 77,000.
80,000 was supported by spot buying, 81,300 was sold off by loss-cutting positions; the rebound can repair, but the trend reversal is not confirmed yet, so don’t mistake a breather for a takeoff. $UNI
.CME Futures Launch: Around October 19, CME will launch UNI futures, making the institutional channel smoother, but this does not mean the price will immediately rise.
Comprehensive Assessment
UNI's practical value in crypto assets indeed belongs to the top tier: real products, real trading volume, real protocol revenue, real burn mechanism. However, its current valuation is not cheap; the price mostly reflects expectations of "continued future revenue growth, expanded burn scale, and ongoing institutionalization."
If future protocol revenue can steadily grow from tens of millions of dollars per year to over $100 million, and both burn and trading volume continue to expand, valuation pressure will ease; if trading volume declines, Robinhood Chain's popularity wanes, or governance adjusts the fee mechanism, UNI's valuation support will also fluctuate accordingly. Everyone might first shout that a payment revolution is coming, but I want to see: who exactly holds the channels?
In September, stablecoin payment card spending was about $1.231 billion, exceeding the entire 2024 annual amount; RedotPay's share dropped from about 85% in the early days to about 33%.
On the other hand, I believe in expansion, not disruption: a decline in share does not mean the leading business is shrinking; Visa still processes the vast majority of transactions, and the growth in scale hasn't changed the reliance on traditional channels. Do you think this is a payment revolution, or just new business for old channels? Opposing views are welcome for debate.99.3% approval votes, indeed quite unanimous, but as someone who doesn't touch high leverage and slowly accumulates spot assets, when I see the proposal for daily Strategy dividends passed, my first thought isn't about how the market will move, but rather: Is paying dividends more frequently the same as increasing value? The same information also mentioned the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged, with two officials advocating for a rate hike, which I'll set aside for now.
My judgment is that this is more like a signal of shareholder preference and cannot yet be directly considered a long-term positive for the crypto space. The approval votes indicate everyone accepts this arrangement, but they don't answer where the dividends come from or their sustainability; the material doesn't explain these either, and I won't fill in the story for it.
From my understanding, dividend frequency addresses how often you receive money, but long-term value depends on where the money comes from. If it's just about splitting the distribution schedule into smaller intervals, then the experience of receiving money might improve, but it won't magically increase the distributable amount. This is my speculation, and it's why I prefer to continue tracking the source of funds rather than getting excited about a high approval rate. In any case, I hold without moving and won't change my rhythm because of one proposal.
Leverage is even less a reason to take such headlines as confidence; just because the news sounds good doesn't mean volatility will be gentle. For friends holding long-term, will you see daily dividends as a real plus, or do you want to first see explanations about the source and sustainability of the dividends?The meeting has concluded, maintaining the interest rate unchanged, but the market has raised the probability of a rate hike in December to 85%. The December rate hike is actually just the market expectation. The period until the next meeting is unlikely to have much impact. The next event to be affected is the U.S. midterm elections on November 4, which is a key event for recent major fluctuations. $BTC Called it before the Fed even met. Let’s check
✅ Fed paused, but stayed cautious, not dovish
✅ DXY kept climbing the “third card” I flagged
✅ Gold never reclaimed its bearish path (4,053)
✅ Altcoins worsened $ETH broke support today
✅ BTC moved 0.04% through Fed + two mega cap earnings, compression, not confirmation
Watching: BTC’s key support 76,827 ETH’s 20d EMA 2,158 $XAG ‘s rejection wick holding. Liquidation clusters sitting right at current levels the next move likely won’t be gradual.Sharing my view 6️⃣
Google is currently priced at 294, it has dropped quite a bit, but it hasn't missed expectations, which doesn't mean the company's profitability is poor. I recommend buying a base position; it will definitely go up in the future #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 $GOOGL 🎯 Opening position: 2315 (limit entry on rebound) Three major signal layers (K-line structure/emotion/macroeconomics) highly consistent bearish outlook ETH: 4H continuous lower highs and lower lows + ETF continuous net outflow + funding rate returns to zero + OI evaporation, clear bearish trend. Limit order set at 1H Bollinger middle band/recent resistance 2315 for pullback confirmation, avoiding chasing at 24h low to prevent short squeeze surge. 🛡 Stop loss position: 2356.21 (1.79% from entry) 1.5×4H ATR (31.77) = 47.66 points, greater than 0.8% baseline; above recent high 2361, breakout confirms short-term structure failure. OCO automatic order placed to prevent slippage. 🎯 Take profit position: 2213.23 (4.39% from entry, risk-reward ratio 1:2.45) 4H previous low 2281/2212 double bottom support zone, combined with 2.0 base risk-reward × confidence 0.60 = 1.2 times risk budget. Add more if it breaks below 2212. 📰 Macro impact Bullish: Although ETH spot ETF has recently seen outflows, institutional holdings base is large, and long-term inflow trend remains intact; Alpenglow and others have clear upgrade roadmaps, fundamentals remain sound. Bearish: Strong dollar/DXY at 18-month high before Fed decision drains liquidity; ETH/BTC exchange rate under pressure, beta amplifies pullback; Glamsterdam testEarly this morning, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.75% to 4%, with a vote of 10 to 2, where two members voted for a 25 basis point rate hike. Chairman Powell said at the press conference that the decision is unrelated to the upcoming midterm elections. The market had anticipated this result, and Bitcoin's volatility was minimal, hovering around 81,000. Galaxy's head of research wrote on Tuesday that the bear market most likely ended in June when Bitcoin fell below 58,000 USD.
SOL was around 102.5 this morning, up 2.7% in 24 hours, with a daily range of 99.83 to 103.20, a weekly range of 98.62 to 107.50, and has dropped about 13% since October so far. If it closes here, it will be the eighth monthly close in the red this year. Its market cap is about 60 billion, ranking seventh.
On Tuesday, the US SOL ETF saw a net outflow of 19.15 million USD, all from GSOL, marking the largest single-day outflow since December 3 last year. On the same day, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of 176 million USD, and Monday also saw an inflow of 110 million USD, showing opposite directions on both sides.
There is a number on-chain being closely watched: according to Tuesday's statistics, three related wallets transferred out 482,000 SOL over three days, of which 171,000 SOL went to exchanges, worth about 17.5 million USD at current prices. Tomorrow, about 11 billion USD worth of Bitcoin options will expire, which could amplify market movements. $SOL The current ETH landscape can be summarized as: a technically bearish structure, continuous withdrawal of institutional funds, but on-chain breakeven and exchange withdrawal data suggest that selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion rather than confirming the start of a new downtrend.
The most realistic short-term path is more likely to be repeated testing and support within the $2,250–$2,350 range, then choosing a direction based on the gain or loss of $2,300, rather than an immediate trend reversal. To move upward, it needs to successively reclaim $2,350, $2,400–$2,420, and $2,500 to gradually repair the structure; if $2,250 is lost downward, then $2,160 and even $2,000 will enter the actual observation range. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady, December Rate Hike Disagreement Heats Up Fed Hawkish Pause Lands, BTC Sideways Under Pressure: December Rate Hike Sword Still Hanging
The Federal Reserve's October decision has landed, maintaining interest rates at 3.75%-4.00%, with a 10:2 vote. Two members advocated a 25bp hike on the spot, confirming a hawkish tone. The statement upgraded the economic assessment to "strong expansion," removed explicit language about inflation returning to target, CME December rate hike probability surged to 85%, and the 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5.02%.
What’s intriguing is the market reaction: despite a textbook hawkish outcome, BTC did not break below the 80,000 level, trading narrowly between 80,500-81,800 all day, with option volatility barely rising. It looks more like bad news was priced in early rather than a sudden buying surge—support at 80,000 remains solid, but bulls lack the strength to drive a one-sided trend.
Short-term trading reference: support at 80,950-81,000, reduce positions if broken; resistance at 81,450-81,770, avoid chasing if it can’t break through.
Key conclusion to keep clear: pause ≠ shift to easing, the December rate hike sword still hangs. Tonight’s PCE inflation data is the next key variable; the current calm feels more like a buildup before the storm rather than a complete risk clearance. $BTC $ETH Google fell more than 9% after hours, raising doubts about the speed of AI cash burn
Last night, Google released its Q3 earnings report, with both revenue and earnings per share falling short of expectations, causing its stock to drop over 9% after hours. Microsoft, on the other hand, rose after hours due to strong growth in Azure.
Both companies are heavily investing in AI, but the market reaction is completely different. Google's free cash flow has been negative for two consecutive quarters, and the growth of its search business has slowed; Microsoft's cloud business delivered more solid growth figures.
Capital is now more willing to stay in AI assets "where returns are already visible" rather than continuing to indiscriminately chase gains.
One pitfall is assuming that because the AI narrative is still ongoing, related assets will continue to rise. In reality, capital expenditures are already very high, and the market is starting to differentiate between those who can convert investments into revenue and those who are just burning money. As a risk asset, crypto finds it even harder to attract incremental funds from tech stocks in this environment.
How do you view this divergence now?
In tech stocks, do you value those with realized performance more, or those still telling stories? Have you adjusted your own positions accordingly?
$BTC #AI #Google #USearnings #OKXPlanetWhat happened last night? Here are the 12 most important highlights plus analysis:
📈 Bitcoin climbed to nearly $81,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. 24-hour high: $81,159.
🔥 $2.7 billion in short positions will be liquidated at $84,000, just 4% above the current price. ⚠️ However: if Bitcoin falls below $80,000, according to the CEO of CryptoQuant, there is a risk of a long cascade down to $73,000.
👀 Also, big whales on Hyperliquid have net bet on price drops for the first time since March. ↳ Both sides are heavily leveraged. The Fed will decide who gets shaken out.
📅 Fed: Probability of no change rises to 95% (Polymarket).
🏦 December is even more exciting: according to Bloomberg data, the market is pricing in about an 80% chance of a rate hike.
🇺🇸 Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury is buying back up to $6 billion in long-term bonds.
↳ What matters today is not the decision, but the Fed's stance on December.
💥 Meta slides into a bear market. −$400 billion in market cap evaporated in just 14 days, and Anthropic is about to go public: JPMorgan will lead the private investor tranche.
↳ The AI boom is showing cracks. It’s curious where the money will flow now. An ancient giant whale who subscribed to 40,042 $ETH in the 2015 ICO, after sleeping for five years, is suspected of selling 2,118.65 ETH, with a cost as low as $0.31 💰
This OG participated in the ICO subscription through 5 addresses and later consolidated all ETH into one address for management; 5 hours ago, they deposited ETH worth $4,993,000 to #Coinbase. If sold, the return rate would reach 7,601.24 times
Wallet address 0x6D30C34Cc79906CD4c10cD1d710D1d736aa679E2Google Cloud surged 103% to 30.7 billion, but after-hours still dropped to around 292. This cut is about "whether burning money can turn into money."
Q3 revenue was 127.58 billion, up 25% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 128.2 billion; adjusted EPS was about 2.67, versus an expected 3.02.
Search ads didn’t keep up, growth slowed to 12%; free cash flow has been negative for two consecutive quarters, about -9.07 billion this quarter.
Capital expenditures doubled year-over-year to 51.36 billion and are expected to increase further by 2027.
The cloud numbers are solid, but after-hours it dropped about 10%. I think the market is more concerned about the core ads weakening and cash starting to flow out.
The closing price at 324.89 still looks stable, but after-hours it sharply dropped to around 292, leaving a scary gap.
At the open, watch if 290–295 can hold and if it can reclaim 300; after-hours low around 287 was broken again, making any rebound worthless.
Do you think this cut mainly targets the disappointing ad performance or the capital expenditure guidance?
$GOOGL
$MSFT
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 As long as the spot order book liquidity of $BTC continues to rebuild like this, I won't be too comfortable waiting for $60K.
When BTC started the bear market last October, the aggregate spot depth was about 13M.
Today it is close to 120M.
Within a 1% price range, the resting liquidity is almost 10 times greater.
When the spot order book is thin, sellers don't need much to push the price down significantly. The price drop then triggers liquidations, forcing more sell orders into the already thin order book.
This is exactly what we saw during the bear market.
But with nearly 10 times the liquidity depth, there is greater capacity to absorb any aggressive shorts without forcing the price to drop so deeply.
So, why should we expect the next correction to be as severe as the decline over the past 12 months?
My view remains that we are building higher lows around the $70K range before another expansion. Further downside fits perfectly with this view.
Returning to $60K is a very different argument. And the more these order books rebuild, the less interested I am in waiting for it to increase my position. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 BlackRock IBIT bought 3,441 BTC in one go yesterday, about $277 million. Money is flowing into the ETF, but BTC's current price is only 81,300, not even above the 50-day moving average—I calculated this myself using OKX daily data, and this line is around 81,900, down 3.3% since October.
Guy Turner from Coin Bureau said 85,000 is the key breakout level, which I basically agree with. Above that, the 50-day moving average at 81,900 and the October 2nd high of 87,200 create layers of resistance.
Money is buying, but the price isn't moving, indicating selling pressure hasn't been idle either. There are just over two trading days left in October; where the monthly candle closes will be more interesting than today's rebound of just over half a percent.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 A project, with more and more people around you using it, and quite a bit of news coverage. You buy its coin, thinking: the product is so popular, the coin should benefit as well, right?
The key is to see how the product's popularity translates to the token.
It's like a shopping mall that's always crowded, but whether the points card in your hand becomes more valuable depends on what the points can be exchanged for and the usage rules; you can't just look at how many people are lining up at the entrance.
The same goes for coins: does using the product require purchasing or consuming the token? What practical uses does the token provide? Are the fees the project receives linked to the token through a clear mechanism?
If users don't need the coin at all when using the product, then an increase in users doesn't necessarily directly lead to corresponding demand to buy the coin.
Even if there is a connection, the price will still be affected by supply, sell orders, and market expectations; you can't draw conclusions based solely on "user growth."
So, when researching a project, try to answer in one sentence: why does everyone need to hold this coin?
The next article will continue discussing the difference in "need": what votes can governance tokens actually cast, and can ordinary holders really participate in decisions?$PONS PONS has surged fiercely this round, but looking at the data, it really can't hold up.
Market cap has dropped to 200 million USD, yet the protocol's daily revenue has shrunk to only 50,000.
There’s basically no real buyers; it’s purely whales desperately hyping the token based on news, forcibly squeezing shorts and making the liquidation positions act as buy orders.
Once this batch of short fuel burns out, where will the next buyer come from?
#PONS
$PONS
👇The probability of a rate hike in December surged to 78.4% in one day, and my first reaction was to wonder if this data was a typo. After a long period of rate cuts, the market is now seriously pricing in a rate hike.
After hours, the US stock market is still restless; Alphabet's profits disappointed, dropping 8.5% after hours, while Microsoft's Azure exceeded expectations. AI capital expenditure is still around $200 billion, the money hasn't withdrawn, but sentiment is wavering.
ETH is currently at 2358, fluctuating within a narrow range of 2323 to 2392 over the past 24 hours. Despite the soaring rate hike probability, it stubbornly hasn't fallen. I think it's not strength, but rather it hasn't reacted yet.
I haven't touched ETH long positions this month for this reason. There's a knife hanging overhead, and no incremental funds at the bottom. I haven't made money on ETH this month, so I decided to stay calm and wait for it to choose its own direction.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 First, a bit of cold water: being willing to strengthen user protection does not mean obtaining a regulatory pass. From what I see in prediction market news, the biggest fear is mistaking "starting to discuss rules" for "risks have already materialized." This time, my judgment is bearish; what suppresses expectations is not whether the product has demand, but that the admission boundaries have not yet been clarified.
In the early news, Kalshi and two co-founders in Utah faced 14 criminal charges, 13 of which are felonies; another point is that Kalshi is working with regulators on user protection measures and is willing to raise the participation age to 21. I care about two things: charges do not equal conviction, but discussing protection measures does not mean these charges have been resolved, and these two pieces of news cannot cancel each other out. Also, if the age threshold is ultimately raised, then the potential participant pool will narrow, which is my speculation; protecting users has long-term value but cannot be directly counted as short-term growth benefits.
I also admit that those who are more optimistic may have a longer view: clear rules could indeed be more beneficial to industry development than ambiguous boundaries. If subsequent legal progress can clarify business boundaries, and after protection measures are implemented we see stable user participation, I will change my view. For now, I am focusing on legal documents and enforcement details, not substituting communication postures for results.Last night at the earnings call, a senior executive from SK Hynix said: The demand for AI storage will outpace supply, continuing all the way to 2030. Hearing this from the manufacturer carries more weight than from analysts.
The numbers are solid too. SK Hynix's Q3 revenue more than tripled year-over-year, operating profit increased sixfold, and the stock price jumped 13% directly. SanDisk followed suit, with US stocks rising as much as 6% last night. I tested OKX's SNDK token contract; the current price is $1368, with a 24-hour high of $1421.
This is interesting. Over the past month, SanDisk fell from over 1800 to 1238, dropping 30%, and the market was full of voices saying the storage cycle had peaked. But then a peer said there will be shortages until 2030, and the funds all came back.
Tonight after the US market closes, it will release its earnings report, with the company guiding revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion. Whether it has peaked or not, the data will decide. Anyway, I've learned my lesson: manufacturer orders are more honest than candlestick charts.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Once the midterm elections are settled, BTC can regain its upward momentum — I believe half of what the CryptoQuant founder said.
The other half I leave to the market to speak. The real price is 81160, fluctuating between 80350 and 81786 within 24 hours, with a neutral 0.01% fee rate; neither bulls nor bears have secretly increased their positions. I trust the real money and market action over verbal judgments.
However, there is a set of data I am closely watching: the short-term holders' cost basis is 76,500. This group is still in profit and cannot be shaken out; only if it truly falls near that level will stop-loss selling flood the market. So until this line breaks, I don't think there is any one-sided trade to make.
Also, a guy named Grant Cardone has made a million-dollar bet that BTC will reach 126,000 within two years. Betting is betting, but that's two years from now and has nothing to do with the daily candle I see now.
My stance: during these weeks of election hype, BTC is confined within this box. Either wait for a pullback to 76,500 to see if it holds, or wait for it to break out with volume on its own. Around 81,000, I stay out of the market and watch the show.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 People keep telling me this round of ETH is different. Today I noticed another detail: an Ethereum OG wallet that had been dormant for three years transferred 2,119 ETH all at once to Coinbase, which is roughly $4.9 million at the current price. It hadn’t moved for three years, and once it did, it went straight to the exchange.
I casually checked the market: ETH is now at 2,318, down 1.6% in 24 hours, with a low of 2,308. Such a large transfer didn’t cause much stir, indicating there is indeed support underneath. But everyone knows what old players moving chips into exchanges are up to.
The fee rate is still 0.077%, contract positions of 14.2 billion haven’t moved much, and the market basically isn’t paying attention to this. My personal stance: this looks more like cashing out than portfolio rebalancing.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC $ETH In September, the interest rate was just raised by 25bp, paused in October, maintaining 3.75%-4% unchanged, which meets market expectations. However, the 10:2 vote split indicates a hawkish pause, not a shift to easing.
September marked the first rate hike in years, and the market was already worried about consecutive hikes. The pause in October gave the market some relief.
The US dollar and US Treasuries are showing short-term volatility with a slight strength bias. The market is speculating that there won't be consecutive hikes. Although the pause is hawkish, expectations for rate cuts continue to be pushed back, long-term rates can't go down, and the dollar will gain support, putting pressure on the crypto market.
Regarding CPI, if upcoming CPI figures exceed expectations, the market will quickly price in a rate hike in December, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to spike. Only when inflation recedes will the dollar weaken.#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期
Cost
Capital expenditure of $45.2 billion was below expectations due to delays in third-party computing power delivery; Q2 is expected to exceed $50 billion, with about $170 billion for the full year, accelerating in the second half.
Free cash flow of $18.6 billion exceeded expectations but was down 27% year-over-year, including deferred capital expenditure contributions. Microsoft is the only one among the four largest AI investors not to have negative annual FCF, but this position is based on spending not yet fully realized.
Commercial RPO was $677 billion, up 73% year-over-year but below the expected $705.6 billion, with almost zero growth quarter-over-quarter; commercial order value was down 12% year-over-year, and subscription revenue shifted from growth to decline.
This quarter realized the combination of "Azure acceleration + spending below expectations."
The next quarter will be the watershed: Azure guidance is 49%–50%. If delayed capacity is delivered as scheduled and demand spreads beyond a few leading-edge model customers, the narrative can continue; otherwise, "high growth + high capital expenditure" will be reexamined. The time gap will not last forever. $BTC $ZEC @OKX中文 @OKX星球 $SNDK Folks, loudly tell me, did you also get a piece of this SanDisk rally!!!!
SanDisk precisely hit the take-profit point at 1421 last night!
Why did it surge?
First, SK Hynix's earnings report exploded with a 13% surge, directly igniting the memory sector. Also, the main force completed a shakeout near 1250, and after breaking through the 1360 resistance level, there was no selling pressure above. Coupled with a large net inflow of funds, it violently surged straight to the first target of 1400 and the second target of 1420, completing profit realization!
Why did it pull back after reaching a high?
After breaking through 1420, short-term profit-taking was abundant, and the main force took advantage of the good news to realize profits at the high level. Additionally, current chip data shows heavy overhead positions above, requiring a pullback to digest.
My view is not to rush to bottom-fish in the short term; wait for SanDisk to stabilize near the support level before making decisions.
#三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓