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The hacker who stole 6.3 billion from Binance is desperately trying to convert the stolen funds into Bitcoin.
What he can move now are 970,000 stolen SOL tokens.
The conversion method is quite convoluted: first convert to stablecoins, then transfer to Ethereum to exchange for ETH, and finally use THORChain to convert to Bitcoin.
Four steps across three chains, and in the fastest case, $46 million was converted within an hour.
Why Bitcoin?
Because the Bitcoin pool is the deepest, it can absorb the volume globally, and once converted to Bitcoin, no one can freeze it.
Coins keep changing hands, but with every step, the ledger records another transaction.
But he seems to have forgotten one thing: the ledger cannot be erased.
Tracking companies are watching the live stream in real time,
and the FBI is applying for freezes along the route one by one. The frozen 2.85 billion came from this process.
The more frequently he converts, the faster the remaining funds get frozen.
If these coins are ever sold on exchanges in the future, it will be ironclad evidence.
The Bitcoin he ends up with is actually "money with a name".
It seems that successfully stealing the funds is less than half the battle; the real headache is laundering and cashing out cleanly.Iran delays escalation, but Congress changes hands: Which is riskier, BTC or ETH?
The US midterm elections and the situation in Iran are simultaneously influencing the market. Previously, the market was worried about an escalation of military actions after the election, but Trump then signaled a continuation of negotiations, easing geopolitical risk premiums. However, what truly affects the crypto industry's midterm expectations is that with the Democrats taking control of both houses of Congress, regulatory battles may enter a new phase.
The GENIUS Act has become law and will not automatically expire due to the election; the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate procedural vote in September by 50 to 49, making its passage in 2026 very difficult. The Democrats have gained more powers for hearings, investigations, and subpoenas rather than directly rewriting existing laws.
BTC is mainly driven by US dollar liquidity, ETF funds, and institutional allocation, making it relatively more resilient but not immune to declines; ETH and the DeFi ecosystem are more sensitive to regulatory frameworks, and policy uncertainty may suppress valuation flexibility. The focus going forward will be on regulatory investigations, ETF net flows, and US Treasury yields. Don't mistake geopolitical easing for an all-around positive, nor equate regulatory deadlock simply with a bearish outlook for BTC.
$BTC #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ It seems necessary to pay more attention to the opportunities on Robinhood Chain
- Backed by Robinhood, known for retail investor trading, as a traditional broker aiming to continuously gain Crypto trading share and convert traditional users, exclusive asset listings are essential
- In the Q3 earnings season, management mentioned that the growth of Chain and its associated ecosystem, as well as Robinhood Wallet, exceeded expectations, and there will be more momentum to promote Robinhood Chain going forward
- Pairing with stock tokens in the pool might also be considered a slight liquidity innovation, with fee sharing turning stock tokens into another form of "dividends." This gameplay originated on Robinhood Chain. The current Crypto main theme is the major integration with TradFi, betting on a second wave$PUMP
Pump.fun opened a channel today, allowing NEAR ecosystem tokens to be traded directly on it without cross-chain. Such product moves usually go unnoticed.
The price is being generous though, opening at 0.003948 and now at 0.004402, +11.5%, close to the 24h high of 0.004436. The 1H trading volume ranges from 1.6 million to 2.09 million contracts per hour, very stable, no particularly explosive spikes.
Holdings are at $25.56 million. When I wrote about it around 3 AM, it was $25.57 million, basically unchanged after more than ten hours. The fee rate is 0.005%, only half the benchmark, very low. OKX spot 24h volume is only 9.4 million, and perpetual holdings are nearly three times that.
Price rose by 10%, leverage hasn’t moved, the buying is spot. I initially judged it as pulse buying, not continuous buying, but it kept grinding up, that was a strong hit to my face.
I won’t add positions at this level now. If chasing, wait for it to pull back to 0.0041, which is the starting point of this four-hour rise; if it loses that, consider the rise never happened.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ The real pressure on BTC may not be the election results, but the reshuffling of regulatory expectations!
The biggest suspense of the U.S. midterm elections is fading. The latest reports show that the Democratic Party has won control of both the House and Senate. This means that over the next two years, the White House will face stronger congressional checks on legislation and appointments, but it does not mean that U.S. crypto policy will immediately shift completely.
What truly deserves attention is the CLARITY Act. The bill failed to advance in a Senate procedural vote in September by 50 to 49, falling 10 votes short of the 60 needed. The leadership of committees, agenda setting, and bipartisan negotiations in the new Congress will determine whether the bill can be restarted.
In the short term, the political outcome may cause emotional fluctuations; in the medium term, regulatory uncertainty may raise compliance costs for the crypto industry, with trading platforms, stablecoins, and some altcoins facing more direct policy pressure. BTC is also unlikely to be completely unaffected, but its trend will also depend on ETF funds, dollar liquidity, and U.S. Treasury yields.
My view is: the election results are already revealed, and what the market will trade next is the ability to deliver on policies. Don’t rush to equate the Democratic victory with a guaranteed BTC drop; what really needs to be observed is whether ETF funds continue to flow out and how prices react after regulatory news is announced. Politics sets expectations, but capital decides the market. $BTC #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？
$BTC $XAU $SNDK
Tonight, the US stock market is very likely to show a "low open, high close, and sharp divergence" volatile pattern, with index declines expected to narrow significantly compared to the early session, but AI-related sectors will bear pressure alone.
Although the Democrats sweeping both the House and Senate was within expectations, the scale of the "blue wave" still triggered intense pre-market battles: Nasdaq futures once plunged over 2%, then rebounded to around a 0.4% decline, while Dow futures even turned positive. The VIX volatility index futures briefly broke above 20, indicating high short-term market caution.
The core suppressive force precisely targets AI infrastructure—newly elected Democrats openly oppose data center construction, raising market concerns that AI capital expenditures will hit regulatory walls. However, the underpinning logic is also clear: a divided government means fiscal expansion is limited, and falling US Treasury yields ease valuation pressure; historical patterns also show that US stocks on average rise about 11% in the three months following midterm elections. Therefore, tonight is more likely to be an "all clear" at the index level, combined with structural hedges from Democratic-benefiting sectors like healthcare and clean energy, but the AI data center industry chain will bear the main political risk pricing alone.ETFs are withdrawing, but Binance's funds are returning — this is today's most easily overlooked contrary signal
After the hacker incident, Binance's net inflow has turned positive by about $2.3 billion, but the ETF side is still bleeding: on November 2, BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of $399 million, and on November 3, another approximately $27 million; ETH ETFs have had outflows for 7 consecutive days totaling $85.3 million, with ETHA alone accounting for $74.4 million.
$BTC: around 77,100—77,450. Short-term support is at 76,000—76,600, resistance at 79,500—80,500. Only a recovery above 80,000 counts as sentiment repair; falling below 76,000 may trigger a new round of sell-off.
$ETH: around 2,274. The only one among the three coins to close relatively positive, but ETFs have had outflows for 7 consecutive days; 2,200 is the line still supported by the order book.
$SOL: around 92.8—93. SOL ETFs had a weekly net outflow of $71.47 million, the largest since launch; a giant whale deposited about 1.49 million tokens to exchanges over 10 days. The 200-day moving average is near 98; only a recovery above 100 marks the first step of a trend reversal.
Midterm election voting day, followed by Friday's nonfarm payrolls. ETFs are withdrawing, exchanges are recovering, direction and data are forthcoming.
For market record only, not investment advice.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $BTC
199.83 coins. According to the breaking news, this is the amount of Bitcoin liquidated across the entire network within two hours. There's also an address where the short position was liquidated six times in two hours.
The price is now 78141. At 11 o'clock, the 1H candle dropped to 75690, then at 12 o'clock with 970,000 contracts and at 13 o'clock with 990,000 contracts, two big bullish candles fully recovered the losses. At 15 o'clock, this candle only had 320,000 contracts, volume shrank to a quarter, yet the price touched 78345.
It looks like the shorts are conceding. I checked the open interest: 2.53 billion at 12 o'clock, now 2.71 billion, an increase of 185 million. The fee rate is 0.0088%, one tier lower than the 0.01 benchmark.
Liquidate a batch, replenish a batch. Leverage is rotating, not leaving. The price is climbing, supported underneath by new short positions and longs unwilling to pay a premium. I don't chase this kind of structure. If 78,300 doesn't hold, today's move is just a retracement to fill the wick.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ When I see this kind of news, I first calculate the risk and return, and I don't rush to treat the shrinkage as an opportunity. According to DefiLlama, the TVL of Optimism Bridge is currently about $508 million, down about 20.9% over the week, with a single-day change of +0.7%. My judgment: this is a risk signal, but not enough to conclude that funds are continuously withdrawing.
There are two reasons: the TVL decline may come from net outflows or just token price drops, and the implications for bridge usage demand are different; a single-day rebound also cannot prove that the weekly trend has reversed. For me, this news raises the priority of risk investigation, not the odds of bottom-fishing.
If funds stabilize after excluding price effects, then further research is worthwhile; if net outflows continue, the so-called attractive odds may just be an illusion. I will first look at the breakdown of fund flows and asset prices, and not use a shrinkage ratio to boost my confidence.Nvidia, which just rose 2.29% yesterday, fell 1.5% overnight.
The Democrats swept both chambers overnight, and the new Texas governor even threatened to put the brakes on data centers.
Interestingly, the panic only lasted half the night, with Nasdaq futures narrowing their drop from 2% to just 0.3%.
I think the variable for AI infrastructure has changed: before, it was just about demand and orders, now you also have to consider Washington's mood 🏛️.
For the first time, the shovel sellers have to watch policy moods to make a living.
$NVDA A friend told me that $BTC C always declines after the US midterm elections. According to him, this is a period when leveraged trading and futures contracts should be avoided. But is this really true? Let's look at the charts and compare Bitcoin's performance in November 2014, 2018, 2022, and 2026. **2014:** Looking at Figure 1, the 200-day moving average was still trending downward, and Bitcoin's price remained firmly below it. The price hadn't even broken through the descending trendline. So w#索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？
The boss has something to say
I have already written about Sony's earnings preview before, so I won't repeat it.
The market fell today, SONY dropped 0.90%, xSONY dropped 1.34%. Why the drop? The comments explain it well: although the yen is weak, and overseas profits converted back to yen can make the earnings report easily beat expectations, the game business hardware growth is weak. Moreover, the PS5 console price has actually risen against the trend, breaking the usual pattern of price drops over the product lifecycle, indicating real pressure on the hardware side.
The current core focus is whether software and PS+ subscriptions can hold steady. If the earnings report is beautified only by exchange rates but core subscription data is weak, investors won't buy it.
Bitcoin is still fluctuating between 77,000 and 80,000. Let's see if it can hold above 80,000; if not, expect a deeper correction. Resistance is between 84,000 and 85,000. Don't chase the rise or kill the dip; set your stop-loss orders properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; make sure to set your stop-loss orders. Good luck. $ETH $BTC $ZEC I always thought that once the GENIUS Act passed, stablecoins would be considered safe. But after reading the details, I realized that only the issuers are safe, while those rowing the boat are still in the water.
The bill provides a federal framework, but it doesn't exempt the state-level licenses. Exchanges, wallets, payment processors, remittance companies—anyone involved in receiving, exchanging, or transmitting funds—may still need to register with FinCEN and apply for licenses in each state.
The most frustrating part is the phrase "approved issuers do not automatically meet state-level requirements." Translated: compliance of $USDT $USDC issuers is one thing, and whether your wallet is compliant is another.
Don't think that regulation ends just because the framework is in place.#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？
Democrats sweep, market crashes then rallies, what exactly is the money betting on?
Today’s market looked like the apocalypse at the open, Nasdaq futures plunged over 2%, Nikkei and Korean stocks crashed 4% intraday, but what happened? A full V-shaped recovery. At close, the Dow was still down 0.38%, Nasdaq actually rose 0.83%, and Korean stocks turned from -4% to positive.
The most eye-catching were gold and silver. Spot gold surged straight up 4000 in the afternoon, a single-day jump of over $90, up 2.29%, silver was even stronger, up 3.82%.
What exactly is the market trading?
The first reaction was to sell off AI because Democrats want to regulate tech and block data center approvals. But money quickly realized one thing: Trump still holds veto power.
Democrats want to spend but can’t, Trump wants tax cuts but can’t push them through, ending in a policy deadlock. Fiscal expansion is suppressed, US Treasury yields fall, the dollar weakens, and gold benefits from this "return to fiscal discipline."
So don’t mistake the V-shaped reversal for risk-on. The money didn’t return to tech stocks; it fled into gold, silver, and US Treasuries. This trade is about deadlock, not growth.#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Many people read the GENIUS Act as "stablecoins are finally legal" and then breathed a sigh of relief. But what this bill actually does is first establish a federal framework, while leaving the state-level layer completely intact.
Who does it protect? The bill provides a federal pathway for stablecoin issuers, allowing approved issuers to have priority application of state laws on certain matters. Up to this point, the story is smooth. But the priority application has boundaries—it only applies to approved issuers, not to third parties involved with stablecoins.
Third parties include exchanges, wallets, payment processors, and remittance companies. As long as they are involved in receiving, controlling, exchanging, or transmitting value in any way, they may still need to register with FinCEN and obtain state-level money transmission or virtual currency licenses. Approval of issuers and FinCEN registration do not automatically mean state-level compliance.
The key mechanism here is that U.S. money transmission regulation is dual-track: the federal government manages anti-money laundering registration, while states manage licensing and capital requirements. The GENIUS Act affects the former track but not the latter. Therefore, whether a license is required does not depend on the "stablecoin" label but on the business activities and the states in which the business operates.
Implementation will be very fragmented. For the same product, State A may only require registration, while State B may require a license plus a bond. Companies operating across states must comply with each state's rules individually, rather than relying on a single federal approval as a pass.
$USDT $USDC $BNB7×24 hour quote inquiry trading, this detail gives me a bit of a familiar feeling from the previous cycle: traditional assets moving into the crypto market, and trading hours are extended accordingly. OKX has launched simple options this time, supporting call and put trading of tokenized stocks. What I care more about is whether it can meet the real needs of position management.
In the last cycle, I mostly heard "everything can be on-chain," but this time it's different; products are starting to focus on asset supplementation tools, not just adding a tradable name. I think this is a step toward practical application in the industry, but having 24/7 quote inquiry does not mean there are suitable quotes all the time. If the cost of quotes outside traditional trading hours is relatively high, then the convenience of time might be offset, which is my speculation.
Looking at it in the cycle, I prefer to see it as infrastructure catch-up rather than a signal of a new narrative taking off. What I want to observe next is the quote performance at different times, not how simple the entry is. Conclusion first: I'm not chasing ZEC this round. The bulls' main battlefield is on BTC and ETH, not on a coin with imminent news to be realized. ZEC's recent surge looks like a different person, up 12% in 24 hours, swallowing the previous day's 11% long bearish candle in one gulp, with the price hitting the lower edge of resistance at 1,279. The reason is not mysterious: the network upgrade NU7 activates on November 5 at block 3,543,405, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, cutting three confirmations from four minutes to just over one minute, and allocating 60% of fees into the network sustainability reserve pool. For the first time in three years, it is simultaneously upgrading capacity and funding mechanisms, and the market is buying in advance. But the market data does not support chasing the highs. ZEC's long-short account ratio is only 0.59—long accounts are 40% fewer than short accounts. Such a structure means the big rise is driven by shorts being forced to cover, not by new money building positions; the volatility is 14.5%, RSI 64 is already close to overbought. More importantly, the timing window: the upgrade lands on November 5, and the standard script for such good news is always a spike first followed by a long-term decline. On the day of Ethereum's merge in September 2022, the price was above 1,470, but two months later it dropped to 1,070. The news was there, and the market played out the news. I've seen many chase at this position, and in the end, they pay the price for the pumpers. If you want to gamble on this, cut your position to one-third of usual and set stop loss below 1,240. Don't take 为什么我认为，资本更偏好政策稳定的环境？ 相比于共和党执政期间，民主党执政时期的 BTC、ETH 在部分历史阶段表现得相对平稳。但我想说的并不是哪个党一定利好加密市场，而是：资本真正需要的，是稳定、清晰、可预期的政策环境。 这几年加密市场越来越机构化，BTC、ETH不再只是币圈内部的资金博弈，也会受到美元流动性、利率预期、传统金融市场和全球风险偏好的影响。 而当政策方向突然变化，市场就必须重新定价。 关税升级，市场担心通胀和贸易摩擦； 美伊冲突，市场担心能源价格和地缘风险； 政策反复，机构难以评估未来成本和风险。 这些事件带来的影响，不只是消息出来时的一根大阴线，而是会进一步影响利率预期、资金成本和风险偏好。 还有一个变化值得注意：随着 ETF 和机构资金进入，加密市场与传统金融市场的联系越来越紧密。宏观环境稳定时，资金更容易做配置；不确定性上升时，风险资产也更容易被减仓。 所以我更愿意把这个观点理解为： 资本不一定害怕严格的政策，但一定会在意政策是否反复；不一定要求市场天天上涨，但需要能够评估风险。 当然，BTC、ETH的走势不能简单归因于总统党派。美联储周期、美元流动性、监管进展和The flames on the stove leap higher than a person, and the aroma drifts across three streets—yet when I lift the pot lid, underneath lies a credit bill of 895.4 billion, of which 69.8 billion must be settled within twelve months.
This is the first glance at the "Anthropic big pot" in the kitchen: diners in the front hall are still arguing over the price. Originally, the signature dish was priced at two trillion, but now several old regulars—institutional financiers—are pressing the price down with fingers, saying they will only start eating if it’s between 1.5 to 1.6 trillion. The price tag hasn’t been set yet, but the soup in the pot has already boiled over three times.
First, taste the flavor: third-quarter revenue is 16.956 billion, a year-on-year surge of 1,127 percentage points. What kind of heat is this? It’s the kind of fierce stir-fry where the oil pan bursts into flames with a bang, and the whole kitchen hears it. But standing at the stove, I’m looking at the second pot—the quarter-on-quarter growth rate dropped from 144 to 47. The fire hasn’t gone out, but half the steam has leaked. A true chef doesn’t look at how high the flames are but whether the pot’s heat can stay steady; a fierce stir-fry that’s done in three seconds is beautiful, but tossing it too much burns the bottom.
Next, look at the accounts: operating loss of 567 million. This isn’t because the ingredients are expensive; it’s because I piled the most expensive truffles and the finest wagyu into the pot. The aroma is enough, but the returns haven’t climbed back onto the plate yet. Even worse are the long-term computing power and lease commitments—an ingredient pre-order of 895.4 billion, with cold chain, warehouses, and fuel all mortgaged behind it—69.8 billion due within a year, with the delivery guy at the kitchen door urging to sign the receipt. Whether revenue can grow into sustained profitability is like asking: can this pot of soup be sold for more than the firewood it burns?
Over in the US stock market, tokenized leveraged products fluctuate with the saltiness and blandness of this pot of soup; when the heat is off, the chili explodes in oil. Speaking of chili—the leveraged contract is that super spicy chili pepper; slicing it into the pot adds aroma, but throwing the whole bunch in will cause your own position to perforate your intestines the next day. Adding seasoning fiercely before the main dish is cooked ruins the taste first.
My verdict in one sentence: aroma up 1,127 times, payment term twelve months—this is not a dish ready to be served, it’s a dish still gambling on reducing the sauce on the stove. #anthropicipopricedebate#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 The current market's main point of contention is whether this nonfarm payroll report can change the Federal Reserve's policy pricing for December. The Fed has consistently used a dual anchor of "employment + inflation"; strong employment resilience leaves room for rate hikes; if employment weakens significantly, combined with a drop in wages, it will weaken the rationale for further rate hikes within the year.
The focus is not on a single monthly number but on four core aspects: new jobs added, unemployment rate, average hourly wage growth, and revisions to previous data. Wages are paramount; wage stickiness is key to persistent service inflation; even if job additions are modest, as long as wages exceed expectations, hawkish sentiment will intensify.
1. Employment and wages both stronger than expected: employment resilience confirmed, the market directly raises the probability of a December rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen, while U.S. stocks, gold, silver, and crypto assets come under pressure.
2. Data meets expectations, mild cooling: maintain current pricing, the Fed continues to wait and see, awaiting subsequent CPI/PCE data, with the market likely to fluctuate within a narrow range.
3. New jobs significantly below expectations, wages decline, previous data revised downward: signals of weakening employment materialize, the market bets on a pause or even a long-term hold on rate hikes, the dollar weakens, and risk assets get a recovery window.
The risk lies in the high volatility of nonfarm payrolls themselves; a single data point rarely settles the matter decisively. Even if employment is somewhat strong, if inflation continues to fall, the Fed can still choose to hold steady; conversely, if employment is weak but inflation rebounds, tightening expectations will resurge. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Bitcoin has entered a period of volatile grinding, with the main market trend drying up, so let's also take a look at opportunities in the meme sector.
These types of assets have an extreme risk-reward ratio, suitable only for capturing liquidity turning points, not for holding long-term.
$MARSCION has dropped from 0.26 to 0.05, a decline of over 80%.
Market cap is 50 million, daily trading volume only 635,000, turnover rate 0.01, liquidity is extremely thin.
Binance perpetual contracts launched on September 1, with almost zero contract trading volume.
The market seems to have some support: 1,399 buy orders vs 1,243 sell orders, with only a 3% drop.
However, the project’s claim of a 2% tax to buy SPCXB is unproven; in such a shallow pool, contract funds can easily break through the market.
This is a liquidity trap; early investors attracted by dividend narratives are now all trapped, and the hype has faded.
Directly bottom-fishing for a rebound is not recommended; without incremental funds, a reversal is difficult, and most bullish candles are traps.
If you want to play the game, wait for a volume breakout and on-chain capital inflow before acting; if there’s no signal, just watch.
Opportunities don’t come every moment; patiently wait for your own window. Brothers, manage your positions well~$BNB At the end of 2020, Bitcoin broke through the nearly $20,000 high set in 2017. Writing this now, it’s just a short sentence, and it even sounds a bit plain.
Looking back now, I still pause at the word "breakthrough." When the old high hadn’t been surpassed, it felt like a hurdle; once it was truly passed, it’s hard to calmly watch without the thought "Did I miss it?" popping into my mind. Even just reviewing history, I can feel that urge pushing me to make a decision.
But I don’t really like the overly certain version of myself when looking back. The results are right there, so of course it all seems clear. If the later events were hidden and only the moment of breaking the high was shown to me, I’d probably still be staring at the screen in a daze for a while.On the monitor, the month-over-month growth rate plummeted from 144% to 47%. This is not a price correction; it is a sudden stenosis of the left main coronary artery. The controversy over the IPO pricing of Anthropicipopricedebate requires first checking the vital signs: a year-over-year surge of 1127% to $16.956 billion, like a young heart’s high-output compensation; but the month-over-month rate is only about 47%, and stroke volume is already declining. An operating loss of $567 million is not a superficial scratch; it indicates severe mismatch between myocardial oxygen consumption and perfusion. More dangerously, there are long-term computing power and leasing commitments of $895.4 billion, of which about $69.8 billion matures within one year—this is the aortic clamp time, and extracorporeal circulation cannot be extended indefinitely. Institutions have downgraded the valuation from about 2 trillion to 1.5 to 1.6 trillion, equivalent to preoperative risk assessment dropping from elective repair to high-risk open chest surgery: it’s not that it can’t be done, but the perfusion window is narrowing. Can revenue growth translate into sustained profitability and support the valuation? High output on the operating table does not equal effective cardiac output; it is necessary to see whether unit revenue can generate free cash flow, rather than simply expanding the ventricle. Linked to US stock tokenized equity targets, peripheral perfusion will cool first: thinning order books, widening spreads, weak rebounds—this is the shock compensation phase, not the recovery phase. If commitments maturing within one year and operating losses simultaneously squeeze cash flow, and the month-over-month growth rate continues to step down, then this is not a valuation disagreement; the myocardial perfusion window is closing. #anthropicipopricedebate BTC has retraced 38%, is it time to buy the dip?
BTC current price is $77,749, down 38.4% from the October 2025 high of 126,200. Monthly highs have been declining: 126,200, 97,924, 87,396, now 77,749.
Three data points indicate this is not a cycle bottom:
MVRV 1.44, Z-score -0.31, historically true bottoms see MVRV fall below 1.0. BTC ETF net outflow of about $1.06 billion in the last three trading days. Perpetual funding rate still at 10% annualized, leverage not cleared.
Three data points also suggest no need to fully exit and wait:
Price remains above the 200-day moving average of 73,200. Exchange BTC holdings decreased by about 33,000 in one week. Fear and Greed Index at 34.
Key price levels:
Above: 78,900 to 80,300, a dense liquidation zone overlapping the 20-day moving average, first resistance. Below: 75,700 to 76,050, 30-day low, first support. 73,200, 200-day moving average, breaking below confirms bear market continuation. 62,500, 90-day low; 57,800, 400-day low.
Buy in batches, not all at once:
Around 77,000: 20%
73,000 to 74,000: 25%
62,000 to 64,000: 30% $BTC Let's calculate: Bitcoin has retraced more than 10% from its previous high, and the current price is less than 90% of that high. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said that sellers are getting tired, but demand is still insufficient; I think this looks more like a cooling of selling pressure, not yet a sign of recovery.
① The retracement of over 10% aligns with the situation where short-term profits have been realized. My understanding is that the motivation to take profits is weakening, which does not mean the willingness to buy is increasing.
② The model compares the proportion of profitable supply with the average monthly volatility, which has now dropped to levels comparable to the bear market period. It measures selling momentum but does not represent buying sentiment.
③ Historically, a decline in selling pressure has helped form a bottom, but demand is still lacking now. Fewer sellers can reduce resistance but cannot drive a recovery on their own.
From another quantitative perspective, price pullbacks and demand recovery are two separate accounts and cannot offset each other. I treat this model as a selling pressure thermometer; the key going forward is to see if demand can pick up.As the U.S. midterm elections gradually become clear, the Democratic Party has swept the Republican Party in both the Senate and the House. Some people in the crypto community might feel anxious and disappointed, but I am actually quite optimistic about this. Especially for $BTC, $SOL, and $ETH, the outlook is promising, even for the long-term development of the crypto space. When did the crypto market start to decline? Crypto enthusiasts, you can look closely—it was precisely when Trump took office. After the peak, BTC, Ethereum, and SOL consecutively fell, and altcoins also plummeted. Do you know why? It was because Trump encouraged insider trading, insiders and their relatives even used their personal influence to issue coins without any bottom line or principles, only pursuing profit. Everyone still remembers the Trump coin and his wife's coin, which scammed countless investors and caused many retail investors to lose everything. This severely damaged the liquidity and fragile credibility of the crypto market. Then there are those so-called well-known figures in the crypto world, various scammers who escaped legal punishment and whitewashed themselves by offering political bribes and financial favors. Now, with increasingly strong checks and balances, they can no longer allow him or some top exchange figures to act recklessly and blatantly; at least there are constraints and balancing forces. Disorderly development in the crypto space is unacceptable; a large number of scam coins and air coins should be severely regulated. Stronger regulation and greater transparency should be enhanced. If those big influencers, whales, or exchanges can secretly manipulate and control at will, the ones who will always be hurt are investors and retail traders. Why can't the crypto market recover? The root cause is a serious oversupply; the amount of capital entering the market cannot keep up with the massive issuance of meme coins, scam coins, and air coins.$DOGE's rebound looks weak, and the long-short ratio is also exaggerated, but I checked the data across the entire platform. At this position, more whales are actually bullish; it's just that OKX's long-short ratio gap is large, while others are relatively normal. Currently, shorts are profiting richly and have repeatedly probed lower and recovered, which easily leads to short profit-taking and then mass liquidations. It's just missing an emotional trigger, and this trigger needs $BTC to provide it. As long as BTC holds steady upwards, $DOGE has great elasticity. Shorts should be cautious; once the rebound happens, stop-loss slippage could be significant. You can watch and wait, but there's no need to open or hold short positions. According to my investigation, many whales and old money here have always believed this is the bottom, and a rebound is imminent.Coincidentally, the $BTC four-year halving cycle exactly aligns with the U.S. midterm election cycle on the same timeline.
Historically in 2014, 2018, and 2022, these three midterm elections all occurred near the end of bear markets. After the midterm elections, there is often one last wave of sell-off and panic liquidation, which marks the cycle bottom, followed by the gradual start of a new bull market. Even more interestingly, the timing of the bottom has been advancing. During shutdown liquidation, there was another theft. This time BitMart lost not much.
Founder Sheldon Xia admitted it on X on November 3. Yes, we were also hacked yesterday.
Crypto tracking shows about $391,000 across three chains: Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism.
The key is timing: the same address moved BitMart funds first, then Mercado 53 minutes later.
During liquidation, security was left only to the core team, and even insiders say manpower was seriously insufficient.
#BitMart #Hack #MercadoAn unusually strong warm and moist airflow is colliding with a cold front—5.8 billion subscription orders against a 15 billion bond issuance scale, a 3.9 times oversubscription. This radar echo looks like a cumulonimbus cloud bursting on a midsummer afternoon, glowing deep red and purple. But once the sounding data is released, the pressure gradient is worsening: the 30-year spread is 220 basis points, 90 basis points higher than in April, meaning the cloud base has risen and the dew point has dropped. The same moisture uplift now requires a thicker cold cushion to produce rain. This is a typical "high demand, low efficiency" weather pattern; no matter how strong the warm moist airflow is, a change in vertical wind shear causes all precipitation to fall over the sea, so the rainfall on land doesn't match the expected amount.
First, let's clarify the circulation pattern. The previous 25 billion bond issuance was during the last front passage, with residual surface heat; this time, issuing another 15 billion means two consecutive rounds of strong convection stacking up, saturating soil moisture and exhausting infiltration capacity. Therefore, the widening spread is not due to insufficient demand but atmospheric instability—the buyers are willing to enter but require a thicker risk premium cushion. The 30-year spread demanding an extra 90 basis points is essentially insuring the vertical development height of this "AI infrastructure" cumulonimbus cloud. You should know that rising financing costs alongside booming orders is meteorologically called "high CAPE, low helicity": abundant energy but weak organized structure, which, once triggered, results in convective strong winds rather than steady stratiform precipitation.
Next, look at the euro financing trend, which is a newly forming low-pressure trough in the model forecast, with its path still adjusting. The dollar bond spread has already reached 220 basis points; on the euro side, it's like starting a thunderstorm over a different ocean surface. Whether it can successfully form clouds depends on the local moisture channel. For AI infrastructure, investment is a continuous uplift and condensation, while cash flow is precipitation efficiency. The current problem is: thick clouds, abundant moisture, but raindrops are small, resulting in prolonged drizzle and delayed surface runoff. The market pricing says, "You can precipitate, but slowly, so I need more compensation."
So this account should be viewed this way: booming demand does not mean the weather is clearing; it only indicates that warm moist transport is still strengthening. The widening spread is the real pressure field signal; cold air is quietly pressing southward, and the wind direction has already shifted. The 30-year spread being 90 basis points wider than in April is not noise; it is the inversion layer rising on the sounding curve, suppressing convection from fully releasing. Once this inversion is broken, it will either be a thorough rain washing valuations clean or a subsiding airflow flattening the cloud tops.
Finally, take a look at the linkage of tokenized assets—they follow the same circulation background, so don't treat them as an independent weather system. The widening spread is the upstream cold advection, which takes time to transmit downstream, but the direction is already fixed. AI investment must cover debt costs, relying not on order multiples but on precipitation efficiency—no matter how beautiful the clouds are, if the rain doesn't reach the ground, it's just a false report. Currently, the pressure gradient is still increasing, the front has not yet passed, and that purple-red radar echo is slowly moving northwest. #metaissues15binbonds$ZEC Democratic Party sweeps both houses of Congress, AI analysis
AI: Bearish bias, but a “slow deflation” rather than an “emergency brake.” There will be more investigations and hearings, with CEOs being summoned and internal documents disclosed causing event-driven shocks, but legislative restrictions on AI investment are unlikely to pass under Trump's veto power. The sector's decline is more about sentiment and valuation rather than fundamentals being destroyed by policy.
Cryptocurrency: Short-term more bearish, mainly due to “legislative stagnation + investigation risk.” The change of committee chair means that favorable bills like the CLARITY Act are unlikely in the short term, while the immediate activation of investigative powers brings event risks to exchanges, issuers, and Trump-related projects. However, there is a pro-crypto minority within the party, so the probability of full hostility is low. The “policy bottom” for crypto has been delayed, but the “policy top” is not as low as imagined.$BTC and $ETH have basically digested this wave of negative factors, and the market has directly formed a deep V-shaped reversal.
The pricing given by funds on Polymarket shows that the probability of the Democratic Party taking both the House and Senate has reached 99.6%. The market generally expects that Trump is relatively lenient towards crypto, while the Democratic Party coming to power will likely tighten regulations, so prices initially faced pressure and declined.
The real turning point was when Trump publicly stated he accepted the election results and expressed willingness to cooperate with the Democrats and no longer dispute the votes. The black swan risk of political turmoil instantly disappeared, negative factors were fully released, and funds began to enter and support the market, driving a strong price rebound.
Short-term focus for Bitcoin: Support at 77200, strong support at 76000, first resistance at 78500, looking up to 78850.
Short-term focus for Ethereum: Support at 2250, strong support at 2220, first resistance at 2317, after breaking through look to 2360.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？
Going forward, the key focus is on whether Congress will advance and implement crypto-related regulatory legislation.👀 Looking back at history, $BTC experienced significant drops after the 2018 and 2022 US midterm elections.
But there is a key difference:
In both instances, BTC was near the low point of the past year.
Right now, BTC's price is about 33% above the annual low.
Currently, there is no clear indication that this time will repeat the previous downward pattern.
History can be referenced, but not directly copied.
$BTC #تقرير أرباح Circle على الأبواب، هل يمكن لنمو العملات المستقرة أن يحقق عوائد؟
Circle earnings report drops today.
Does stablecoin growth translate into real returns?
Yes — the company’s core income comes from reserve yields.
However, a large share of revenue goes to distribution partners like Coinbase, which pressures margins.
Key metrics to watch: USDC circulating supply and the retained revenue ratio.
#USDC #Circle #CRCLThe US stock AI sector is undergoing a stress test—opportunities after the midterm elections!
1. Midterm Elections: Market Turning Point
The 2026 US midterm elections will be held on November 3.
Statistics since 1950 show that in the 12 months following the election, the S&P 500 index tends to perform strongly, with an average gain of about 15%. Regardless of which party holds the advantage, as election uncertainty gradually dissipates, market risk appetite may recover, though different election outcomes still impact various industries differently.
What truly matters is not just which party wins, but the fiscal policy, tech regulation, trade policy, and monetary policy expectations after the election.
For tech assets that have seen significant pullbacks, the next two months offer a chance to reassess valuations and positioning.
2. AI Investment Enters the Second Half: From Storytelling to Cash Flow
Over the past three years, AI valuations have mainly focused on three points:
1. Whether there is core technology and competitive advantage?
2. Whether demand for computing power continues to grow?
3. Whether there are enough customers and backlog orders?
As long as growth expectations are strong, the market often grants high valuations. But now, the evaluation criteria are changing.
AI investment is shifting from a computing power arms race to rigorous scrutiny of balance sheets, financing ability, and free cash flow.
On October 30, the Nasdaq index fell about 2.86%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped about 7.2%, reflecting market concerns over AI’s massive capital expenditures and return cycles.
But what I want to say is: a decline in tech stocks does not mean global computing power demand is drying up.
AI infrastructure is still being built; the market’s real question is: when will investments turn into profits? Will capital expenditures consume cash flow? How much can companies finance at what cost?
This is a stress test of AI companies’ financial sustainability, not an industry collapse.
The future winners won’t necessarily be the companies that invest the most, but those that can sustain investment, control debt, and ultimately generate free cash flow.
In the short term, watch elections and liquidity; in the long term, focus on profits and free cash flow. A crash brings opportunity, but the timing of buying still depends on company quality, valuation, and position management🫡$BTC $ETH $ZEC 59 companies, the words "blacklist" evoke more fear than the number itself. With Apple and others newly added, I'm worried that onlookers might directly interpret it as the entire stock token sector being rejected.
I think this interpretation is overblown: the issuer's objection does not equal a lack of user demand. My guess is, if a company is concerned about brand usage boundaries, then the objection might be about fighting for control rather than evaluating the sector's value.
I also tend to fall into confirmation bias due to negative wording. Reminding myself: fear can signal risk but cannot replace judgment.😶$XRP
With policy expectations improving, can it replace payment usage growth?
The regulatory environment constrains participants, but from policy discussion to business implementation, institutional access, liquidity, and continuous settlement are still needed.
If payment activity growth is accompanied by deeper spot liquidity, the demand explanation is more complete; if the price only reacts to political news and usage indicators remain unchanged, I would consider it event-driven trading. When policy fulfillment falls short of expectations, the premium may quickly decline.When I hear "voting with money," I always feel that this phrase makes money sound too straightforward. In on-chain prediction markets, those betting on Bitcoin's rise aren't necessarily very optimistic; they might just think the odds are right or are hedging positions elsewhere. Normally, you can wait when buying coins, but here you have to accept the result at expiration, so the mindset is indeed different. Therefore, when I look at the odds, I try to figure out what the underlying demand is and don't dare to take it directly as everyone's true winning probability. Especially when a big player moves funds around—does this count as changing their stance, or just a simple portfolio adjustment?#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 The market is awaiting Moderna's Q3 earnings report, with the main focus on the latest trends in vaccine sales.
Previously, vaccine clinical data was leaked early; the trial results were generally positive but failed to meet the market's earlier optimistic expectations, which put pressure on the stock price after the news broke. The continued decline in demand for traditional COVID-19 vaccines is the biggest short-term revenue pressure. Procurement orders, shipment volumes, and gross margins of routine vaccines will be the core metrics for this quarter's revenue.
The capital market is re-pricing Moderna, no longer viewing it solely as a COVID-19 vaccine company but gradually re-evaluating it as an mRNA oncology technology platform company. The mRNA oncology pipeline is a long-term story. Investors will focus on pipeline R&D progress, clinical trial enrollment status, and the pace of R&D expenditure in this earnings call. However, oncology drug development cycles are long and carry high failure risks, making it difficult to contribute sales revenue in the short term.
Overall, the Q3 performance foundation relies on sales of mature vaccine products; the company's medium- to long-term valuation depends on the quality of progress in the mRNA oncology pipeline. If the decline in vaccine sales is controllable and oncology pipeline data continues to improve, it could support valuation recovery; conversely, if vaccine revenue falls short of expectations and there is no notable progress in the cutting-edge pipeline, the stock price will remain under pressure. At the time of the earnings release, it is important to closely track revenue guidance, pipeline milestone updates, and cash burn status.I often find the comment sections after crypto prediction markets release results a bit amusing. Those who guessed correctly are busy showing screenshots, while the other side suddenly goes quiet, leaving the screen full of "I knew it all along."
But which side the odds favor only shows which possibility the funds were more willing to price at the time; no one had the answer in advance. When buying coins that drop, people can still talk about long-term expectations, but once a prediction is settled, it's hard to argue stubbornly. Those who argued the loudest before the results came out, why don't they return to the original post anymore?A trader was liquidated for $52.5 million over 7 days and still hasn't exited.
On-chain data shows: he shorted BTC on Hyperliquid, accumulating $52.5 million in liquidations over 7 days, with an actual loss of $881,000. He still holds $5.54 million in $BTC short positions, with 40x leverage, unrealized loss of -$149,600, and lifetime P&L of -$885,500. Only 0.27% away from liquidation.
Breaking down the numbers: $52.5 million is the size of liquidated positions, not the money he lost; the actual amount wiped from his account is $881,000. The nearly 60x difference means each time the position was liquidated first, only a small portion of principal was lost, then he added back to continue shorting. It wasn’t a single liquidation but repeated liquidations and re-entries over seven days.
Regarding the mechanism: with 40x leverage, a 2.5% adverse price move wipes out the principal. He only has 0.27% room left—if $BTC moves up by a couple dozen basis points, this $5.54 million is gone. This kind of position isn’t a holding; it’s a bet hanging on the liquidation line.
My judgment: this isn’t bearish sentiment, it’s a position that must be right immediately. A true short would allow for error; someone at 40x leverage is betting on a single needle move without any upward wiggle.
What’s worth considering: lifetime loss is -$885,500, and in the last 7 days alone he lost $881,000. Previous trades were basically for nothing; his entire net worth was lost in this one week. The position remains, but the account is effectively finished.#美伊谈判未突破，油价为何单日跌逾7%？ $BTC $ETH
The negotiations failed to reach a breakthrough; logically, this should have been positive for crude oil, but instead, oil prices plummeted. This indicates that the market had already priced in the "no conflict" scenario, or that weak demand outweighed the geopolitical premium.
For the crypto market, geopolitical disturbances to the overall market are weakening, and capital is not buying into it. There's no need to overinterpret the Middle East situation; focus back on the fundamentals of capital flow itself.Gold has retreated back to the average transaction zone, SLX continues to slide down
$XAU 3940.56, up 0.8% in the past 24 hours, the gain remains, quote returns near the average price 🥇
The volume-weighted average price of gold contracts in the past 24 hours is about 3943.68, with the quote at 3940.56 returning nearby, the distance from the recent high is narrowing.
The high of 3977.95 was not sustained, but it also did not fall back to the low of 3899.18, closer to the middle of the range.
From my judgment of the upward surge turning to digestion, the strong bias needs to be discounted, the upward distance has not yet reopened.
$SLX 0.03868, down 6.3% in the past 24 hours, price retreating quickly, contract quantity changes little 🟩
In the same completed 12-hour period, the price dropped 6.7%, and the number of open contracts decreased by only 0.3%, the downward move did not correspond with a proportional scale exit.
Quantity is close to the original level, but the exchange price is already lower, this contrast deserves attention.
Short-term remains weak, stable quantity should not be mistaken for price stability, nor is there a basis to assign holding direction for these contracts.
$LINK 11.078, down 2.6% in the past 24 hours, active buying is bullish, but did not push the price up 📡
In the past two full hours, active buy transaction volume accounted for 55.5%, price still fell 0.6% during the same period, active buying did not result in upward movement.
Quote at 11.078 is again close to the low of 11.004, no recovery near 11.2, feedback remains cold.
I pay more attention to displacement after transactions, the buying ratio can describe trading style but cannot be directly taken as net capital inflow.Coincidentally, the $BTC four-year halving cycle exactly aligns with the U.S. midterm election cycle on the same timeline. Historically in 2014, 2018, and 2022, these three midterm elections all occurred near the end of bear markets. After the midterm elections, there is often one last wave of sell-off and panic liquidation, which marks the cycle bottom, followed by the gradual start of a new bull market. Even more interestingly, the timing of the bottom has been advancing. In 2014, the bear marToday's market showed wide fluctuations. In the early session, driven by expectations for the US midterm elections and risk aversion sentiment, $BTC quickly dipped near $75700, hitting the intraday low before funds stepped in to support a rebound, pushing it back above $77400; ETH followed the sell-off, bottoming at $2226 and rebounding to around $2290. Over the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations exceeding $419 million, with a higher proportion of long position liquidations. This indicates a clear short-term shakeout, with volume concentrated during the sell-off phase and weaker volume on the rebound, characterizing a corrective bounce.
After the midterm elections, I hear two voices in the market: "Bad news priced in, ready to take off" and "Midterms always lead to sharp declines, history as a lesson."
$BTC support levels: $76100 (first strong support), $74800 (defensive bottom line)
Resistance: $78100 (first intraday resistance), $79600
78 and 80 are two key resistance points. There won't be a big surge here, as market makers will have large funds suppressing the price. $HYPE ✅ Key HYPE transfers today (November 4, as of 15:24)
1. a16z related address newly deposited 32,862 HYPE to exchanges
- In the past 5 days, this related address has cumulatively transferred about $15.02 million worth of HYPE to exchanges
- Market interpretation: If this batch of tokens is sold, estimated profit is about $1.08 million
2. Yeti0x: exchanged to obtain 29,870 HYPE, deposited to Hyperliquid, has already started spot selling
- Worth about $2.45 million, key selling pressure order
3. HyperLabs team unstaking redemption progress (old notes matured for payout)
- Previously staked tokens redeemed as planned, some routed through OTC channels, not through regular exchange deposit addresses From tonight until tomorrow, watch two things
Whether BTC can hold above 77,800. Tilen from 10x Research says the stochastic indicator shows oversold, with the next target at 82,000. But the ETF is still bleeding, and bullish bets in the options market alone won’t hold up for long. ZEC’s NU7 activates tomorrow, and around the upgrade rollout, the 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' volatility will likely increase. The 76,400 level held today, and it needs to hold again tomorrow. The order book just bounced a bit, BTC is hovering around 77,500, the buy orders are loudly calling out, but there isn’t much real money backing it. This rebound—do you think it’s the last deep breath before the launch, or just a polite pullback before distribution? I've been watching this structure suppressed by the moving average for a while. The moving averages above are like a row of windows left slightly open, with wind constantly blowing downwards. The funding rate is still bleeding buyers daily; chasing longs at this position is basically taking bullets for others. The original bearish strategy is very clear: wait for a pullback to 77,400–77,600, open shorts in two orders at an average price of 77,500, stop loss at 78,250, halve positions if it breaks 76,260, close all at 74,735, leverage 2 to 3 times, position size no more than 5% of total capital. I agree with the core rhythm of this—don’t chase the current price, wait for the pullback to give a position. But I want to add an emotional observation. The current state of the buyers is like a crowd chasing to take photos on the street, shouting loudly, but the person is walking further away. The emotion is still there, but the support is gone; this is the most typical feeling during a divergence phase. When the real distribution is about to happen, it won’t be this noisy; it will be quiet enough to make you think it’s stable. ETH is more honest. Quoted at 2,249, down 2.58% in 24 hours, a seven-day range of 2,171 to 2,391, the drop is even more substantial than BTC. Open interest is $1.85 billion, with a daily net outflow of $7.4 million, and a ten-day cumulative net inflow of only $42.3 million, which is almost negligible compared to BTC’s $297.1 million. To put it plainly: the bears have just entered, there is still room below, but ETThe fate of the CLARITY Act affects the industry more than the election results themselves.
Democratic control of Congress means this bill is very likely to be renegotiated rather than quickly restarted. Warren is a major opponent, and if she becomes chair of the banking committee, the legislative process will slow down. The market has largely priced in this factor, but pricing it in does not mean it will come to fruition.