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With the midterm elections approaching, what will BTC's trend be? Experts take you for an in-depth analysis!
Hello everyone! Today, let's talk about a hot topic in the crypto world—the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. midterm elections on the Bitcoin (BTC) market! As election day draws near, the market is filled with discussions about the "risk asset curse," especially how BTC, as a high-risk asset, will react.
First, we know that the policy uncertainty brought by the midterm elections directly affects the performance of risk assets. The key lies in who controls Congress, which will influence fiscal spending, tax policies, and regulatory intensity. This uncertainty often prompts rapid capital withdrawal, leading to a decrease in risk appetite.
From historical data, the BTC market performance before and after the last four midterm elections (2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022) does not fully align with external expectations. For example, BTC's price nearly halved one month after the 2018 election, while it rose 31.6% in the 30 days following the 2010 election. This shows that not every midterm election leads to a BTC decline; rather, the intense market volatility after the election may represent an opportunity for capital reallocation.
Furthermore, BTC's connection with traditional financial markets is becoming increasingly close. BTC behaves more like a high-beta risk asset, heavily influenced by the U.S. stock market, dollar liquidity, and global risk appetite. Therefore, the policy expectation changes brought by the midterm elections will inevitably be reflected in BTC's price.3.1 billion contract positions versus 17.2 billion circulating market value, HYPE's open interest accounts for about 18% of the market value. How should this ratio be interpreted?
Conclusion first: it's not low, but not out of control yet. Horizontally, mainstream coins often see open interest ratios exceed 20% at emotional peaks. An 18% ratio indicates that the leverage on $HYPE is significant, but after prior clearing, it’s no longer a hot potato. The real value of this indicator lies in its amplification effect on volatility: the heavier the positions, the more a price move can trigger a chain of forced liquidations, turning small fluctuations into a one-sided market, with both rises and falls amplified by leverage.
So rather than fixating on the 18% figure, it’s better to watch its trend. If positions decrease and prices consolidate, that’s healthy deleveraging; if positions rapidly accumulate without price increases, it means directional positions are being built again, rearming the fuse for volatility. For ordinary holders, the open interest to market value ratio is like a portfolio structure health check—checking it regularly is less stressful than constantly watching the market.#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings
*Q3 drama:*
Bernstein HBM: *Samsung $8.7B +33% QoQ > SK $7.6B +11%* — first time Samsung leads. HBM share SK 64%→50%, Samsung 15%→33% in 1yr. Exports Sep +45% MoM +131% YoY $60.3B.
*Bull:*
HBM4 mass prod Sep, into NVDA Vera Rubin. DDR5 128GB+ x2 QoQ. DRAM price Q4 +10-15%. Combined Samsung+SK op 185T KRW record. $NVDA custom NVHBM base die TSMC 3nm Samsung accepted.
*Call: 85% beat but needs HBM4 vol + price guide to 27 + margin hold 75%+ to beat Samsung narrative. $MON is bearish, watching the cliff unlock on 11-24, which is equivalent to adding one-third more to the current circulating supply. There are still 28 days until the unlock, so the pressure hasn't truly arrived yet. We backtested events where the unlock volume exceeded 10% of circulation; underperformance against the market was concentrated in the 7 days before the unlock, averaging about 6%, with three-quarters being negative. After the unlock, there was no clear direction. Therefore, the focus should be on the week from 11-17 to 11-23; price movements before that have little reference value. The chart shows higher highs, bullish volume, and proximity to previous highs, but the market cap is too thin. Contract open interest is only $20 million, and trading volume is negligible—just a small amount of capital can push this pattern, unable to absorb one-third of the new supply. All liquidations in the past day were longs; shorts did not move at all, and leverage is still pressing on the long side. Conditions for a bullish reversal: if after entering the week of 11-17 the price still closes above 0.0223, the bearish view is invalidated. Breaking below 0.02113 will cause weakness to start early. Watching Apple's pre-market movement early in the morning, I've almost smoked half a pack. The earnings report is about to come out (early morning of November 3rd), and honestly, I'm quite conflicted—wanting to take a gamble for a big win, but also fearing waking up to a big loss.
Here's the conclusion first: I predict this earnings report (Q4) will most likely beat expectations, but that's definitely not a reason to blindly rush in and go long.
Why do I say that? The intuition of an experienced trader tells me there's a lot of fluff in this beat.
On one hand, before the new iPhone release in September, there was a strong wave of early purchases since everyone knew prices would rise, which directly boosted this quarter's revenue. Big investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Jefferies are generally optimistic, expecting revenue to reach over 113 billion and EPS to beat expectations.
But I've seen this script too many times. The good-looking data is purely stacked up before the price hike. The real killer move lies in what Cook says on the call.
The US stock market trades on expectations, not the past. No matter how good the earnings look, if management's guidance for the next quarter (December quarter) on the call is weak, they'll teach you a lesson in no time. There are too many landmines on the table now: demand for the iPhone 18 Pro is clearly weak, rising storage chip costs are squeezing profits, and the sales in Greater China remain a mystery.
##SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Conclusion first: When the entire market has 198 up and 52 down, $SOXS fell 8.6% in 24 hours, and $SOXL rose 8.67%—the two legs of the same index are almost symmetrical because they are both 3x ETFs.
The harshest move last night: On 10-26 from 20:00 to 24:00, in that 4-hour period, $SOXS dropped from 52.14 to 46.96, -9.9%, with a trading volume of $18.6 million, accounting for 46% of the day's total volume.
Three numbers for your wallet:
1. 3x inverse + perpetual 25x leverage = effective 75x. That 10% drop last night hit the liquidation line right in the middle.
2. Perpetual 24h volume is $40.36 million, xSOXS spot only $600,000 (67x), X-Perp only 460 contracts, $22,000. Without spot anchor, the price is entirely set by the perpetual itself.
3. Funding fees continuously reset to zero, premium -0.059%—no one earns holding fees, it's all a bet on direction. OI $7.48 million, turnover 5.4 times per day, best bid only 0.1 contracts.
My discipline: Never "catch the rebound" with 3x ETF perpetuals; either use xSOXS spot semantics or small positions, no holdings on US stock market holidays.
When you trade $SOXS / $SOXL, do you treat them as stocks or as contracts?#South Korea discusses further delay of crypto tax, I will wait for the policy text before judging fund reactions
The South Korean presidential office stated on October 25 that it is discussing a further delay of the crypto income tax originally scheduled to be implemented in January 2027, but no decision has been made yet. I understand the market will first trade on expectations, but there is still a process between discussion and final legislative amendment. Regarding this news, I will first see if the National Assembly advances a clear text, then observe the KRW trading volume and local premium. If only delay rumors are spreading and transaction volume shows no sustained change, I will not judge that new funds have returned based on this. Policy affects costs, and whether funds act still needs to be confirmed with data.#富兰克林邓普顿推出美股股息买BTC新型ETF
The boss has something to say
Franklin Templeton has launched two new ETFs, FBEQ and FIBT. The core mechanism is an initial allocation of about 95% US stocks and 5% BTC exposure, but the most aggressive part is that the dividends from US stocks are not given to you in cash; instead, they are automatically used to increase positions in Bitcoin-related assets.
I believe this is Wall Street's excellent way to "silently" integrate crypto assets into traditional investment portfolios. Previously, retail investors had to open accounts and transfer funds themselves to buy crypto, which was a high barrier. Now, as long as you buy this US stock ETF, the dividends automatically convert into BTC. This model is more covert and sustainable than directly promoting a spot ETF. As long as US stocks keep paying dividends, there will be a continuous stream of automatic buying pressure injected.
But don't expect it to pump the price immediately. In the short term, this only changes the allocation method of existing funds; we haven't seen a large influx yet. Also, BTC dipped slightly by 0.30% today, and the market is still waiting for the FOMC.
This is a long-term positive for crypto; the lifeblood of traditional finance is slowly seeping in.
Last night, BTC took a waterfall drop; now let's see if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't hold, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Don't chase the rally or sell in panic; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; make sure to set your stop losses. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $DOOD This month, my live trading account made 21 trades, with 8 losses, resulting in a net loss of 2.4%. I recorded the opening price, stop-loss price, and closing reason for each trade exactly as they were, listing both profitable and losing trades together.
What you get by following me is this: unfiltered daily live trading records, losses reported honestly, and losing trades are not deleted.
Franklin Templeton submitted applications for two dividend-type Bitcoin ETFs yesterday. Many people's first reaction was positive, but after reviewing the structure, I think it needs to be discussed separately. The cash flow of dividend-type ETFs most likely comes from covered options, meaning selling BTC call options to collect premiums and then distributing them to you. This is not a pure long tool; essentially, it is a device that sells upside potential in exchange for cash flow. The real impact on market structure is: long-term capital is indeed coming in, but marginally, it is money selling volatility, not buying volatility. This also explains why BTC has been stuck around 79,866 for so long, only dropping 0.2% in 24h, ETH at 2,316 is also moving close to the ground, and even TAO, which was trending today, only moved 0.0%. Volatility is repeatedly suppressed, and hot rotations have directly fizzled out. I never make directional judgments during low-volume sideways trading, only position judgments: keep leverage below 2x, do not move stop-loss levels, and wait for a volume breakout directional candlestick before following.
#OKXProphet #OilFlowsRecover
Brent $114 now, EIA Q4 $105, 26 avg $96 → $84 in 27 if flows hold. Goldman $85 Dec → $80 27.
Why $100+ still?
Crude recovers, refined only 58% of 25 avg — Kuwait 75% cap. Diesel $200/bbl 2x crude. Stocks -509M bbl vs Feb, lowest since 16. US distillates -32% 5y avg. 7 tankers hit Hormuz, rates still high.
Outlook: OPEC+ HOLD Nov, Saudi cut Asia -$5. G7 100M SPR release. If Hormuz holds: $95-110 Q4. Escalation: $120-150 diesel $250.
Play: Long crude dips, long diesel crack.The market has been unusually "quiet" lately, and here's why:
On Wednesday, the Fed will release its decision first. Once Waller speaks, half of the market's anxiety will be relieved; then two days later, on Friday, nearly $12 billion worth of BTC options will settle simultaneously, with 152,000 contracts accounting for over 30% of the total open interest.
There's another detail in this chart: the thickest call option cluster is at 95,000, which is far from the current price; the real pain point is at 79,000. BTC is currently at 79,800, just hovering slightly above that pain point.
So the current "quiet" doesn't mean no one is moving; both sides are holding their chips tight, waiting for Wednesday's data.
There are two possible scenarios:
🔻 On the night of the decision, a crash below 79,000 could cause option positions to go out of control, leading to intense volatility.
🔁 More likely: the price will be slowly ground between 79,000 and 82,000 until Friday, with market makers hedging to keep the price in a narrow range—a classic squeeze before expiration.
I lean towards the second scenario.
But a reminder: a squeeze ≠ safety. Once settlement passes and the pressure disappears, Thursday still has GDP + PCE data, and Friday still has the Bank of Japan. Don't try to guess the direction these days; focusing on volatility and buying cheap Gamma is more worthwhile.$BTC The major trend remains bearish! But absolutely no short chasing, short-term rebounds can come at any time 🔥
Clearly explaining the current core rhythm of BTC: the medium to long-term trend is still bearish, with the ultimate adjustment target remaining at 75000! But at this stage, absolutely do not chase shorts, the main force's shakeout rebound risk is very high!
The market has been grinding narrowly for two consecutive days, overall trapped in the 79000–81000 range, with no clear breakout or direction. Currently, a large cluster of short positions is concentrated near the 79000 support, and the market's bearish sentiment is overly unanimous, which is a typical bear trap signal.
A key divergence structure has formed: contract CVD has hit a new stage low again, but the coin price has not broken down in sync; the spot bottom continues to rise, and market open interest keeps climbing. This fully indicates that bears continue to dump, but spot buying is very strong, with bottom-side bids firmly supporting; bearish volume has long since exhausted and is ready to reverse and hunt short-chasing retail traders!
Short-term rebound targets are clear: first resistance at 81000–81500, corresponding to the 4-hour parallel top liquidity zone; second target at 82400–82800, filling the daily-level gap with ample liquidity above.
Summary: The major trend remains bearish, but the short-term divergence rebound signal is clear. Do not chase shorts or overleverage; patiently wait for the rebound repair before choosing direction!
$BTC
⚠️ Analysis is for communication only and does not constitute investment advice. Strict position control is essential in volatile markets
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $CORE CORE's trend, a slow decline has never meant the price is falling, but that the exits are closing one by one.
The supported exchanges have been cut directly from 34 to 13, KuCoin has long since delisted it, and CoinEx will completely close withdrawals in December.
The buy order depth is now as thin as paper, any slight selling pressure can cause slippage to max out.
For coins with liquidity cut off, later on, even if you want to exit, you won't find counterparties.
#CORE
$CORE
👇$BTC
18,600 coins, this is the net inflow of Bitcoin by short-term holders to exchanges in the past 24 hours, mostly selling at a loss.
The market is cooperating as well, OKX is now hovering around 79,800, with a 24-hour low of 79,400, just grinding below the 80,000 mark. Those who chased above 80,000 and entered now are selling at a loss, no surprises there.
Last time I bet it would break through at a similar threshold, but it just ground for three days with no luck. This time I’ve learned my lesson; at this level, I won’t make a move—neither cutting losses nor adding.
Also, the original Bitcoin DEX, the old version V1 of DotSwap, was hacked; within four hours, 8.5 BTC were drained from the pool, about 685,000 USD, due to the outdated server-side signature mechanism. The amount isn’t large, but the old protocol managing the custody pool is like this—when something goes wrong, it’s a total mess.
Loss-cutting orders are piling up at the doorstep, either triggering a wave of accelerated decline or grinding into a bottom. I’m betting on the latter. The 80,000 integer level has always been formed by grinding, not by breaking through.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Market data as of October 26, 2026. Values vary by sources and calculation methods. The idea of RWA is simple: rights to traditional financial instruments, such as short-term US Treasury bonds, are issued as tokens on public networks. Ondo Finance builds its platform on this, and the products are already operational. The $ONDO token has a different relationship to these products than a stock has to a company. It is a governance token, not an equity instrument. The main question to analyze: how business growth will be... 🔥This week's main event: The FOMC interest rate decision is coming!
First, the market consensus: The October decision is basically set, with rates expected to remain unchanged, and over 90% of funds betting on no rate hike.
Many newcomers might think: No rate hike is good news for BTC, so it will surge? It's not that simple!
There are two key points this time:
1. Although the rate hike will pause in October, a large portion of funds still price in a possible hike in December. Pause ≠ shift to rate cuts, it's not dovish, just a break. The key is not the rate number itself, but Powell's wording in his speech!
If his speech is hawkish: implying inflation is still unstable and there is room for more hikes, BTC could be directly hammered, many previous spikes came from this;
If his speech is soft, dispelling December hike expectations, funds will dare to buy coins more boldly.
2. Key point: This meeting will not update the economic forecast dot plot! Without this crucial reference, the market is more prone to volatile swings triggered by a single sentence, causing more spikes. Futures traders must control their leverage!
Here's a simple summary:
✅ No rate hike + mild speech → short-term risk appetite rises, bullish for Bitcoin
⚠️ No rate hike, but Powell is tough and leaves the door open for December hike → bullish expectations turn bearish, prone to "buy the rumor, sell the fact" #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC I have thought about whether, when holding Bitcoin, I could use prediction markets to hedge against some of the pain from price drops. But if I were to actually use it, I'd first get stuck on the question: the coin price moves constantly, but prediction contracts settle according to predetermined times and conditions. If Bitcoin drops, the prediction side might not necessarily cover the loss exactly. The odds seem like prices set by participants for the outcome, not market forecasts. I originally wanted to worry less, but just pondering whether the two sides can align makes me feel like I need to open another window on my screen.Just saw this, and my first reaction was: Vanguard is also starting to touch Bitcoin? But after reading it, I feel that "indirect exposure" and "actively bullish" shouldn't be equated. I've only been in the circle for a year and almost got misled by the headline again 😂
According to Coin Bureau, Vanguard, which manages $13 trillion in assets, disclosed for the first time that its VSS ETF holds about 4.5 million shares of the Japanese Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet, valued at about $7.5 million, thereby indirectly gaining Bitcoin-related exposure. The $13 trillion here refers to asset management scale, not the size of this investment.
My understanding is that this news is more like a signal of deepening ties between traditional finance and crypto assets, and cannot yet be considered ironclad evidence of a shift in institutional attitude. Not sure if that's right. On one hand, holding shares of the treasury company also involves company operation and stock pricing risks, which is not the same as directly holding coins; on the other hand, "first disclosure" does not mean just bought, so we can't infer that new funds are flowing in based on this.
I haven't figured out what kind of allocation rules this holding comes from, and the material doesn't explain it either. If it's just allocated according to established rules, then interpreting it as an active bet is a bit over the top. I will continue to watch the basis of the holdings and subsequent disclosures, and first remind myself not to take the "name of a big institution" as a conclusion.Sideways movement is an illusion; leverage is lining up
BTC is grinding near 80,000, but the liquidation heatmap is far from calm. Considering the current macro environment across the network and being just one step away from the October FOMC decision, the expectation of "higher interest rates for longer" continues to suppress risk appetite, with December rate hike expectations heating up. Short positions cluster above 82,000, while long positions are dense between 80,000 and 79,000, like a tightly compressed fuse. The price only needs to dip below 80,000 slightly to potentially ignite a chain liquidation of longs; a sweep above 82,000 would also hurt shorts. The main players are using retail anxiety to complete chip rotation.
ETH appears weaker on the surface, with 2,350 capping the rebound, but the 2,300–2,280 range is packed with long liquidation zones. Recent repositioning by ancient whales (3,000 ETH moving into CEX combined with a potential 100 million USDT buy order) has intensified volatility. Once 2,300 breaks, stop-loss and liquidation orders could trigger a stampede. SOL is tugging around 100, with 102–104 as the short defense line and 100–98 as a thick long wall. A break below 100 could quickly drain liquidity below, causing even more volatility in altcoins.
The conclusion is straightforward: leverage is crowded on both sides, and the main players are not waiting for direction but for a fuse to trigger a chain reaction. Bottom fishing or topping now risks becoming cannon fodder. Watching the show is fine, but don’t put yourself on the liquidation map. Before the FOMC shoe drops, it’s recommended to hold light spot positions defensively, reduce leverage on contracts, and wait for clearer macro guidance and a return to rational long-short ratios before trading with the trend, prioritizing capital preservation. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Just a quick mention about the outside world
The neighbors have been wearing tense faces these past two days: On Monday (10/26), the US stock market continued the downward trend from last Friday, with risk aversion dominating; On 10/26, the A-shares market was extremely divided, with the Shanghai Composite slightly up 0.19% to close at 3,697, supported by oil & gas and banks, while the Shenzhen Component dropped 1.19%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.71%, and the STAR 50 Index declined 2.23%, with over 3,100 stocks in the red, led by the precious metals sector. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.51% to close at 23,212, with oil stocks holding up the market. The crypto market is overshadowed by two dark clouds: first, the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on 10/27-28, with results released early morning Beijing time on 10/29; CME pricing shows a 91% chance of no rate change and 9% chance of a hike, so even a small hawkish surprise could sting in the middle of the night; second, the US dollar index is hovering near a three-week low around 101.7, precious metals collectively plunged today, with Chifeng Gold hitting the daily limit down and Hong Kong gold stocks once dropping as much as 12%, as safe-haven assets are breaking apart. $BTC tries to stay intact, but playing dumb won’t help.When I scroll through the gainers list, my first reaction is often "How did I miss it again?".
Later, I gradually developed a habit: first look at the 24-hour trading volume, then the price increase; this way, my mindset is steadier. Taking the OKX spot market around 4 PM Hong Kong time on October 27 as an example: DOOD up about +24.08% in 24h, trading volume about 11.44 million USDT; GRVT about +13.54%, trading volume about 3.3 million USDT; NIGHT about +10.13%, trading volume about 2.3 million USDT. During the same period, BTC was around 79,879, down about -0.2% in 24h, almost unchanged.
Personally, I think coins with small trading volumes have their price changes easily amplified by small amounts of capital. Just a few trades can push the price up, but if the order book is thin, slippage will teach you a lesson when you actually try to trade: the gains shown on the leaderboard are not necessarily the prices you can get. It's a bit ridiculous, but that's how the mechanism works.
So now my order of checking the list is: trading volume → order book depth → and finally the price increase. The price increase is the result; the trading volume determines how "real" that result is.
Which column do you usually check first when browsing the list?
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice ⚠️ **The calmer the market, the more cautious you should be! Does this sideways movement of ETH really mean it has stabilized?** Brothers, the recent market has been unusually quiet, with ETH seemingly nailed in place, fluctuating between $2300 and $2350. But what really deserves attention is not just the sideways movement, but the fact that the highs are gradually moving lower! 📉 **$ETH: Sideways on the surface, but weakening structurally?** Look at these highs: - $2368 - $2343 - $2320 The progressively lower highs indicate that the short-term rebound strength may be weakening. Although the price hasn't dropped significantly for now, this doesn't mean the bottom has been formed. What worries me more is that the market's repeated oscillation within a narrow range might make many people let their guard down, mistakenly thinking the decline is over. 🔥 **The real test comes after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting!** Before macro news is released, the market often becomes cautious, and funds may wait for clearer signals. If ETH subsequently breaks the support near $2291 and fails to quickly recover, downward pressure may increase further; conversely, if it breaks through the upper resistance zone with volume, the bears will have to reassess their positions. So, right now, we can't just assume the market will go down based on sideways movement alone, nor can we ignore the risk of a sudden rebound. 💰 **About my position:** I currently hold a short position on ETH, entered at $2689, with an unrealized profit of about 【ETH 2300: Don't Accept ETF Redemption Orders】
The funding line is the most honest: October ETH ETF net outflow hit $1.18 billion, a record for the year, with ETHA single-day redemption exceeding 75 million; ETH/BTC slid from 0.0319 to 0.0291, down nearly 9% in 30 days. This is not a mistaken sell-off, but institutions cutting high Beta.
The chip line is very divided: 43.7 million staked, accounting for over 35% of circulation, exchange holdings hit a new low at only 3.49%, with 170,000 withdrawn in a single day; but OGs are cashing out at 2300. Locked positions support the floor, ETFs pull the ceiling—two different things.
The referee line is the Wednesday FOMC: 90% chance of no change in October, 68.9% chance of a rate hike in December, U.S. Treasury yields near 5%, oil prices topping inflation. Powell’s word “stubborn” leads risk assets to cut ETH first.
2300 is the emotional underwear, not the valuation bottom: if broken, look to 2280, 2220-2250, then down to 2000; resistance above at 2473/2546.
Strategy: Do not add positions or hold if above 2300; wait for the daily chart to hold 2300 plus ETF net inflows for two consecutive days, missing either is just guessing. The narrative is for the next round, position first to survive this week.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Most people see patching vulnerabilities as a positive: Ethereum developers fixed a bug in the Glamsterdam upgrade that could have mistakenly credited new validators' staked ETH to block builder accounts, with the fix merged into the consensus specification on October 26.
Looking at it from another angle, I am more cautious about the risks of the upgrade rollout. First, errors in fund ownership touch the staking security baseline; second, the fix was previously rejected due to insufficient client team support, indicating coordination is not smooth. I will closely monitor client implementation and not assume everything is fine just because the specification is merged. Where is the money going? The ledger doesn't lie.
Here's the position-side cash flow: $BTC on 10/22, the day of the surge, saw an inflow of +368.5 million; on 10/23, an outflow of -431.3 million; on 10/24, another outflow of -236.2 million; on 10/25, a partial return of +124.4 million; on 10/26, another withdrawal of -188.4 million; as of this morning 10/27, a return flow of +146.7 million, with a cumulative net outflow of -216.3 million. Most of the money that entered at the high has already left, and the current inflow looks more like the residual heat of short covering rather than a large-scale entry of new bulls.
$ETH is even more straightforward: on 10/25, a large outflow of -171.2 million, with a cumulative -136.1 million. The second brother's bleeding started earlier and was more intense than the big brother's. The fees haven't gone crazy: $BTC latest +0.010%, $ETH +0.009%. Bulls are still paying protection fees on time, indicating that the bulls remaining in the market haven't been scared off, nor is it overly crowded—if a surge were really coming, fees would have already shot up above 0.05%.Historical statistics are often treated as signposts: from 1950 to 2022, the S&P 500 mostly rose in the year following midterm elections. But signposts are not guarantees; the process may involve declines before gains, and closing higher does not mean a smooth ride. Using the calendar as a buying reason easily overlooks valuation, liquidity, and sentiment.
If the US stock market continues to strengthen, crypto assets may follow, but "following the rise" is not the same as "guaranteed to rise." I dare not say whether $57,800 this year counts as a historical bottom. At least, I can't bring myself to buy Bitcoin at $80,000.
Doubling up to $160,000 seems to have limited room; halving down to $40,000 is not out of the question. Such a risk-reward ratio and odds are not worth betting on with emotion.
So I choose to stay calm: no bottom guessing, no chasing highs, watching as I go. Opportunities can't be rushed, so first protect your position. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Robinhood will release its Q3 earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes on October 27, and the market is closely watching whether its business growth can continue. In Q2, its revenue rose 32% year-over-year to $1.31 billion, and net client inflows hit a new high of $22 billion, clearly showing the platform still has strong appeal to retail investors. Stock, options trading, and cryptocurrency business are the core drivers of growth. However, this impressive performance does not guarantee that Q3 will continue to exceed expectations. Retail investors' trading enthusiasm heavily depends on the overall market trend; if the U.S. stock market fluctuates or moves sideways, many ordinary investors will reduce trading frequency, directly impacting the platform's trading revenue. Changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations will also alter market risk appetite, and speculative trades like options are an important source of Robinhood's income. Industry competition pressure is also significant, with many peers continuously lowering fees and launching similar convenient trading features. Robinhood's early unique advantages have gradually weakened. Although the crypto business is growing fast, U.S. regulatory policies remain unclear and could restrict the expansion speed of this segment at any time, posing a long-term risk. Currently, most market participants are betting that the earnings report will exceed expectations, but overly high expectations are a double-edged sword. Even if performance meets market estimates without significantly exceeding them, the stock price could easily face a pullback. To impress investors, it cannot just maintain steady growth; it also needs to show improvements in active user growth and sustained monetization capabilities What happened to the "institutional-grade" project CT, which dropped 74% in one month after going live and has a TVL of 1.26 billion?
First, let's lay out the facts:
🔹 Project aspect: very solid
Concrete is an on-chain asset management platform, focusing on institutional-grade vaults (ERC-4626 standard), with a TVL of about $1.26 billion, ranking as the fourth largest on-chain capital allocator. Investors include Polychain, YZi Labs, VanEck, BitGo, Bullish, FalconX.
🔹 Token aspect: very grim
On September 30, the TGE day, price went from 0.075 to 0.485, peaked at 0.6387 on October 2, now at 0.168 — a 74% drop in one month.
🔹 Even more critical: token structure
Total supply is fixed at 1 billion tokens, but the team and investors hold 50% combined, and the lock-up schedule has not been fully disclosed. As of now, CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap cannot confirm its circulating supply, so market cap cannot be calculated.
📌 My judgment:
CT is a textbook case of "good project ≠ good token."
The project team honestly states: holding CT does not grant equity, dividends, nor automatic rights to protocol assets; it mainly offers governance plus staking fee rebates. TVL represents user deposits, while the protocol’s cumulative revenue is only $396,000 — a $1.26 billion pool with no direct economic link to token holders.
Therefore, the 74% drop is justified: what fell was not the project’s value but the premium from the "institutional-grade" label.
Also note a pattern: On October 19, Upbit/Bithumb listings caused a 32% spike to 0.44 within 15 minutes, then a pullback. This pump on listing followed by a drop is typical for new tokens with thin liquidity; those chasing highs got stuck.
Going forward, only three things matter:
① When will circulating supply data be confirmed?
② When will the team/investor unlock schedule be disclosed?
③ Can TVL growth convert into protocol revenue?
Until these three questions are answered, the hype ranking at No.20 is just attention, not value. Anthropic publicly filed for IPO yesterday, and the most shocking figure is a loss of $80.6 billion in the first half of the year. But when you break down this number, the story is completely different.
Do you think an AI company is worth 1.5 trillion because you're buying its current revenue, or because you're buying its computing power five years from now? To pour some cold water first, I don't see negative funding rates as a positive for $WLD. Hyperliquid's public market data shows WLD's funding rate at -0.0067% per hour, the highest absolute value among current contracts, annualized at about -59%, with a 24-hour change of -1.49%. What worries me more is that the annualized figure might be packaging risk as an interest-earning opportunity.
There are two reasons: negative funding rates only mean shorts pay longs, which doesn't equal spot buying entering the market; and the annualized rate is extrapolated from the current rate, not a locked-in return. My speculation is that if someone enters the market chasing funding income while the price keeps weakening, the fees received might not cover the holding losses.
Of course, those expecting a rebound might be right. If spot buying continues to strengthen and the price stabilizes, I would retract my bearish view instead of fixating on the funding rate. Facing this negative funding rate on WLD, are you bullish or bearish? Share your reasons, and don't just use the annualized figure as evidence.Brent crude oil closed at $115.81 on 10/26, having risen about 12% in October. Last week, it briefly surged above $117, the highest since April.
Normally, with rising oil prices and inflation expectations, yields should go up; however, the 10-year yield actually dropped to about 4.98%, falling below 5%.
Do you think this yield decline is a bond market warning about growth, or just a short-term safe haven after the stock market plunge?
$TLT $XLE $SPY #oilprice #FederalReserve The three "people" to watch most closely these days
Whether Strategy resumes increasing holdings (paused last week): It is one of the marginal buyers this round; resuming buying = demand returns, continuing to pause = one less leg.
US spot ETF subscriptions/redemptions: On 10/22 single day -635.6 million (largest since 6/25), 10/23 -137.9 million, totaling -772 million over two days; but the whole week still +301 million, October full month -314 million, cumulative net inflow about 57.2 billion USD. Look at the margin, not the cumulative.
Coinbase premium index: has been negative for 33 consecutive days (latest -0.15%~-0.126%) — before US spot buying returns, any rebound should be treated as a "rebound," not a "reversal." #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 $BTC is that Vanguard Group which years ago called retail investors "avoid the big coin like the plague" and even locked ETFs out for nearly two years.
Today, it was caught holding shares in a Japanese big coin shadow company.
They tightly shut the front door they built for you, but their own channels and various structures have never been closed.
Those old money guys in suits never truly opposed BTC; what they oppose is you holding it before them, in your own way.The biggest buzz in the tech world today isn't about which coin surged, but that 3-SAT has been cracked by OpenAI's internal model.
When I was in graduate school studying discrete optimization and complexity theory, the professor's first lecture was about the exponential lower bound of 3-SAT, which hadn't been challenged for decades. Now that a subexponential time algorithm has truly emerged, the ceiling has cracked for the first time.
What's even more intense is the ripple effect. If the ETH assumption fails, a whole bunch of classical algorithms' theoretical lower bounds, once thought insurmountable, become invalid. Textbooks that once told you this path was a dead end now need to be rewritten.
As for P/NP, I wouldn't say we're close yet, but at least it's no longer a purely philosophical topic.
This has a very direct significance for the crypto industry: the security we talk about daily, based on insufficient computing power, fundamentally relies on these complexity assumptions. Once these assumptions loosen, some cryptographic parameters will need to be recalculated.
What I care about isn't slogans, but whether there will be peer reviews in the next three months, and whether anyone can reproduce the results shared in that 33k-read article. The last time AI announced solving a math problem, a lot of the claims fell apart during verification.
Technological revolutions never announce price changes in advance. But this time, at least it knocked on the door.$BTC fell 0.76% in 24 hours, currently priced at 79,819.8, with a volatility of 1.9%. It followed the slight pullback of the US dollar and did not form a one-sided trend. The dollar's rise this time was moderate, with the main pressure falling on the yen, which translated into weakness in the crypto price. The funding rate for three periods rose from 0.0017% to 0.0100%, and longs are still willing to pay; contract open interest of $7.59 billion was not significantly liquidated. In 24 hours, long liquidations were $15.66 million, short liquidations $13.71 million, nearly balanced with no stampede. DVOL is 38.5, options open interest put/call ratio is 0.80, no rush to buy downside protection, and the put/call volume ratio is slightly higher at 0.91, indicating some short-term hedging. The total stablecoin supply is $303.1 billion, with no withdrawal of on-exchange funds. My judgment is that $BTC will continue to oscillate between 79,321.8 and 80,819.4, as this level of dollar increase does not change the direction. Conditions for bearish reversal: the dollar continues to strengthen, price closes below 79,321.8, and funding rate turns negative, which would indicate that the pressure has truly transmitted.【Spot Traders' Observation Notes | Gradual Accumulation in Progress (ง •_•)ง】
After two consecutive weeks of steady decline, funds have been absorbing every dip in the last three days. Many are watching BTC at 75,000, but based on past patterns, when a level becomes widely known, it may not hold. The spot strategy is to accumulate in batches, not to bet on a single point (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
The macro environment is indeed tough: interest rate hikes, geopolitical disturbances, plus if Trump loses the midterm elections, crypto policy expectations might turn colder. If a worse black swan event occurs, just save your position for a lower level and gradually buy more (｡•́︿•̀｡).
BTC is consolidating with low volume near the 30-day box bottom, selling pressure seems to be weakening; the 7/20/30-day moving averages are pressing from above, RSI at 41 is neutral to slightly weak. After about half a month of digesting negative news, buying might return. ETH is the weakest, but selling pressure eased today; it broke below all moving averages, RSI at 33.4 is deeply oversold, box range at 7.8%, support may be near 2200. ZEC at 1228 is held below the 7-day and 20-day moving averages, RSI at 49.4, three moving averages squeezed together like a rope, seemingly waiting for macro direction (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
For personal record only, not investment advice; leave room even when accumulating in batches.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 BTC is currently reported at 79,600, with 69% of accounts long, and OKX aggressive buy orders only at 48.2% — positions are holding, but money is selling. 79,400.6 is the largest long liquidation level below, and 81,126.3 is the short defense above. ETF lost 169 million in a single day. $BTC #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Last night BTC dropped below 80,000, and the group chat was full of people crying and panicking. I guess many pressed the sell button out of fear. Early this morning, after checking ETF fund flows, I found it very interesting that the Wall Street big players collectively played a disappearing act in this scenario!
$BTC ETF fund flow was actually zero yesterday, you read that right—both inflows and outflows were zero. A few days ago, BlackRock and Fidelity were still aggressively dumping (on the 23rd, 16.94 million ran out), but now at the 80,000 mark, these big players are holding their positions, indicating institutions are also waiting and watching, neither bulls nor bears daring to shoot first, all waiting for direction.
Looking at $ETH, it was the only one with inflows. While everyone else was hesitant, Fidelity quietly bought 69.14 million worth, forcefully turning the total market into a net inflow. They were dumping just the day before yesterday, but now at the 2,300 level, institutions clearly think "the price has dropped enough to be worth it," starting to build positions on the left side. This might be the most positive signal in today's market.
Lastly, $SOL looks a bit grim, still seeing outflows. Yesterday net outflow was 80,900, with Bitwise and Grayscale both exiting. Compared to $ETH’s institutional bottom-fishing, $SOL’s funding situation remains under pressure, and the selling pressure in the spot market hasn’t fully ended yet.
In summary: big money is extremely picky right now. BTC is stagnant, $SOL is being abandoned, and only $ETH is getting a sweet treat. Don’t just stare at the candlesticks guessing blindly; where the money goes is where we should look. Until BTC makes a move, I’ll stick to being out of the market and just watch the show $BTC BlockBeats news: On October 27, on the decentralized options platform Derive, a wallet purchased 800 Bitcoin call options expiring on November 6 with a strike price of $90,000, with a notional value of about $68 million, and net received about $940,000 by selling call options expiring on March and October 30, 2027.
I also expect BTC to break through 90k after the midterm elections and am preparing to buy some options #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 Three large-cap tokens, three entirely different capital structures. The useful question on October 26 is not which is strongest, but what each price is actually paying for. $ETH, $SOL and $ZEC sit side by side, and the answer diverges sharply. 📊 $ETH trades near $2,318, down less than 1% in 24 hours, yet carries $41.86 million in liquidations — the heaviest of the three. The contradiction sits in flows. On-chain data recorded the largest net withdrawal in almost four months, roughly 169,000 $EThe first thing that caught my eye was "$519,500", which made the short position seem quite impressive; then seeing the 25x leverage made me hesitate a bit 🤔. Core Trader 66 (0x5559da…3d43b) opened a short on ETH with a notional value of about $519,500, reference price $2301.9, and the result is still unknown.
Having been in the circle for just a year, my understanding is that a large position does not equal high confidence. What matters more here is how much margin for error was left in the judgment. Roughly calculating initial margin by dividing the notional value by leverage, it’s about $20,800, meaning they didn’t put up $519,500 principal to short.
If ETH rises 1% from the reference price, the short position would face a paper loss of about $5,195, which is roughly a quarter of the estimated margin above. So even if the direction eventually turns out right, intermediate adverse fluctuations could squeeze the position out first. 25x leverage corresponds to about a 4% theoretical buffer, but this can’t be directly taken as the liquidation distance; margin mode, maintenance margin, and other conditions must also be considered.
What I haven’t figured out is, seeing only this position, how to distinguish between an active bearish bet and a hedge for other positions? I’m not sure if I understand correctly: without the full account overview, it’s hard to judge how much risk it actually bears. I’d like to ask experienced traders, when reviewing such a 25x short, would you first check the margin mode or other positions to assess risk, and why?Strategy is holding 848,500 BTC. No purchases last week, instead they used 200 million to buy back their own preferred shares. No selling, but no more pretending—the biggest believers all think now is not the time to buy, just consider that.
$BTC at 79,712, unable to close above 80k. Two trials this week: Thursday FOMC, Friday Deribit with 135,000 options expiring, nominal value 10.8 billion, biggest pain point at 78,000. Calls betting on 95k and 100k are all worthless, daily volatility before expiration is kept at 1.6%, the real action will be after Friday.
$ETH at 2,308. All sellable tokens are locked up, 35.9% of supply staked, a record high, six consecutive quarters of net inflow, yield squeezed down to 2.63%, upgrade testing delayed again. Locked up this much without price increase means the problem is not selling pressure but lack of buying demand.
$SOL at 99.72, breaking 100 again. On-chain activity is busy, DEX weekly volume 12.6 billion, second on the entire chain for 14 consecutive weeks, only behind Binance. But perpetual contracts shrank 32% in a week, 74.9% of contract accounts are long—spot is running, leverage is retreating first.
If BTC can’t close above 80k, reduce positions, no additions before Friday, you know, FOMC is on Thursday, the 78,000 pain point is like gravity, I think there’s a high probability it will test it before the end of the month!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 What the heck? $BTC ETF funds are actually zero! What big move are these Wall Street old foxes hiding?
Last night when Bitcoin dropped below 80,000, I guess many friends were scared and sold at a loss, but I wasn’t panicking this morning. Instead, I watched the ETF fund flows all night and found something very interesting: those Wall Street old foxes collectively played a disappearing act.
First, about Bitcoin, yesterday the ETF fund inflows and outflows were all zero! You read that right, zero. A few days ago, BlackRock and Fidelity were still actively selling, with 16.94 million running out on the 23rd, but when it hit the critical 80,000 level, they just held their positions. What does this mean? It means institutions are also waiting and watching, neither bulls nor bears dare to shoot first, all waiting for direction.
Next, look at $ETH, the only one with fund inflows! While everyone else was hesitant, Fidelity quietly bought 69.14 million worth, forcibly turning the total market into a net inflow. They were selling just the day before yesterday, but now at the 2300 level, institutions clearly think the price drop has become cost-effective and have started building positions on the left side. This might be the most positive signal in today’s market.
Finally, $SOL looks a bit miserable, still flowing out. Yesterday’s net outflow was 80,900, with Bitwise and Grayscale both exiting. Compared to institutions bottom-fishing $ETH, $SOL’s funding situation is still under pressure, and the selling pressure in the spot market hasn’t fully ended yet.
Big money is extremely picky right now. Bitcoin is inactive, $SOL is being abandoned, and only $ETH is getting a sweet treat. Don’t just stare at the candlesticks guessing blindly; where the money goes is where we should look. Before Bitcoin makes a move, Old Li suggests staying out and watching the show.Franklin Templeton's proposed 95/5 equity-BTC structure makes dividends the interesting variable, not the initial allocation. Redirecting equity income into Bitcoin ETPs could create a recurring purchase mechanism, but it may simply repackage investor risk rather than bring fresh capital. With trading dates still pending, demand effects remain unproven.
#FranklinDividendsToBTC $BTC Here's something: Strategy, this company's signature move is issuing shares and bonds to raise money, then buying coins. They have 848,517 coins piled up there, and many people treat their actions as a market indicator. But from October 19 to 25, that week, they didn't buy a single coin; instead, they spent $204.9 million to repurchase their preferred stock STRC — which carries a fixed annual interest. My first reaction wasn't bullish or bearish, but that the company is finally caught up by its own bills. A company that treats "only buying coins" as a belief has started to manage its interest payments, and this move says more than anything they say verbally. Considering today's price of 79,924, more than half of those 848,517 coins are at an unrealized loss. Them not buying isn't greed, it's holding on. This morning I used the Korean tax deferral as an example, now adding this perspective: the buying side has loosened up, so don't jump in just because you hear the word "Strategy." $BTC 🟢$UNI dropped nearly 30%, but the protocol is still strong! The most common mistake is equating a price drop directly with the collapse of the project's fundamentals!
Brothers, this UNI pullback is indeed harsh; those who chased the highs are suffering, and those trying to bottom-fish fear further losses. But as of the report on October 26, UNI fell about 29% from the end of September to October 24, while Uniswap's locked value still holds around $4 billion, and the 7-day trading volume reached about $12.8 billion. The price is falling, but trading activity hasn't collapsed in sync—this divergence is worth noting.
📢 Even more crucial is the new catalyst! On October 22, Uniswap launched Aggregator Hooks, integrating 7 external liquidity sources into v4. Simply put, previously when users traded on other DEXs, Uniswap might not have earned revenue; now some external liquidity can also be converted into protocol income and participate in UNI burning through the mechanism.
📊 How to monitor next?
In the short term, first watch if the $6.50–$6.80 range can hold steady; consider buying on dips after a clear bottoming structure appears. On the upside, watch the $7 level first; if volume supports a stable break, then look near $7.30. If support breaks effectively, don’t blindly add positions—wait for reconfirmation.
It’s not that a big drop guarantees a rise, but the protocol still has trading volume, new products are expanding revenue sources, and the fee-burning mechanism adds new value capture logic to the token. $ETH $ZEC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Strategy's latest position announcement is quite interesting
In the past week, the company did not buy any BTC, nor did it sell shares to raise funds through the ATM program
But Saylor was not idle either; he turned around and spent $205 million to repurchase STRC preferred shares
As of now, Strategy still holds 848,517 BTC, with an average cost of about $75,446
Actually, those familiar with $MSTR's capital structure should know that STRC is a very important part of its financing system
The market performance of these floating dividend preferred shares directly affects Strategy's subsequent cost and ability to raise funds through preferred shares
This repurchase is significant here:
When BTC accumulation temporarily slows down, Strategy begins to invest more funds to maintain the existing capital structure
I think this is worth paying attention to
After all, one of MSTR's core competitive advantages is its ability to continuously obtain funds from the capital market and convert them into BTC reserves
And the sustainability of this process largely depends on whether the capital market is willing to continue providing funds
#Strategy暂停增持，Strive与BitMine扩大储备 Zcash co-founder Bowe proposed terminating the automatic allocation of 8% of newly issued $ZEC to ZCG, redirecting it to the future mining reward reserve. Based on $1300 per coin and deducting unfulfilled commitments, ZCG's assets are estimated at about $125 million.
I tend to see this as governance risk control: he is worried that accumulating funds could amplify risks, but the existing stock will still be used for funding. Onlookers might be triggered by the "halted allocation" and fear it, misinterpreting the proposal as a cutoff of resources.
I also have to restrain confirmation bias and avoid only focusing on words that match my own emotions. 如果明天早上之前你也在盯这几条线，那么现在看到的安静，其实比波动更值得读。 真正的问题是：市场在等 Powell，还是在偷偷给"不降息"重新定价？ 我今晚翻这几组数字时，第一感觉不是兴奋，是那种屏住呼吸的紧绷感。BTC 在 80550 附近磨了两天，80000 像一条被反复确认的地板；ETH 从 2433 滑下来后守着 2300，链上巨鲸在 2300 挂了 6388 万买单，可 Galaxy OTC 又往交易所送了 13000 枚。你看，这不是单纯的多空对峙，是同一批聪明钱在做两手准备。 这里市场实际在交易的，已经不只是"明早会不会有意外"，而是"84.5% 的不变概率有没有被提前计价得太满"。当共识太舒服，任何一句偏鹰的措辞都会被放大成重新定价的触发器。BTC 守住 80000 是情绪锚，一旦失守，短线止损和杠杆去化会先传导到 ETH 的 2300，再往 SOL 的 100 去试探；反过来，如果 Powell 语气温和，被压制的风险偏好可能先回到大市值，再慢慢溢到链上活跃度。 SOL 现在 102，100 守了两天，新共识出来但盘面还在观察，这说明叙事有了、资金还没完全信。它要真走出#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The core highlight of Robinhood's Q3 earnings report can actually be summed up in one sentence: Retail investors are back, and they're playing more aggressively.
I believe this earnings report is very unlikely to be bad, and it might even exceed expectations for three reasons:
1. Prediction markets are the real "trump card"
Don't just focus on stocks and cryptocurrencies; Robinhood's strongest growth now actually comes from prediction markets (such as betting on elections and Federal Reserve interest rates). This business is not only compliant (in partnership with Kalshi) but also highly sticky. Previously, people bought stocks and held them, but now they check the market and place bets daily, with a completely different trading frequency. This revenue definitely exploded in Q3.
2. Options trading has become the new favorite
Retail investors today are no longer just blindly buying stocks like a few years ago; everyone is playing options. Q2 data already showed an increase in options trading volume, and this trend will only become more obvious in Q3. The commissions and order flow income (PFOF) from options are much higher than from simple stock trading, which is a solid profit growth point.
3. Crypto business is "recovering"
Although it had previously fallen sharply, the cryptocurrency market was noticeably more active in Q3 (especially with Bitcoin's rebound). For a high-beta platform like Robinhood, as long as there's some movement in the crypto space, its trading volume will multiply. This business segment just needs not to drag behind to be a win, and any slight improvement is a pleasant surprise.