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The most vulnerable link has been exposed first: this weekend's move is not a shakeout, but a defense line breach. Are the long positions you hold waiting for a rebound, or waiting for an exit? I was watching the market on Saturday night; BTC slid all the way down to 79332, and the round number resistance at 80000 was pierced as if it were made of paper. The only relatively effective support zone in recent weeks has been 79000–80000, and now the price is hugging the lower boundary. If the daily candle closes below 79000, 78000 will be directly exposed in sight. More importantly, the rhythm: before reclaiming 82000, every time it looks up, I prefer to see it as an escape window rather than a reversal starting point. ✨ ETH concerns me even more. The price dropped below 2300, currently around 2321, having fallen from 2526 continuously, with moving averages already aligned downward. The real pain is not the candlesticks, but the money: the spot ETF saw a net outflow of 221 million USD this week, with a cumulative outflow of 1.18 billion USD in October, marking the fourth consecutive week of net outflows. Institutions are voting with their feet, which is more honest than any trading call. 2280 is the previous low; if effectively broken, the space down to 2150 opens up. Data snapshot, first clarify the structure: - BTC weekend low 79332, core defense zone 79000–80000 - ETH current price about 2321, previous low 2280, reference below 2150 - 24-hour total long liquidation 82.01 million USD, short liquidation only 36.7 million, ratio exceeds Wow, the NBA officially designated Kalshi and Polymarket as its preferred prediction market exchanges. Can we understand this as the valuation of prediction markets shifting from a bc platform model (revenue = rake × trading volume) to a licensing business model (revenue = exclusive data × media distribution)? After all, obtaining the league's authorization means securing exclusive assets. Although I still don't think Polymarket will issue tokens, so retail investors can't directly benefit, the real value of this kind of partnership isn't in trading volume but in bringing prediction markets out of the gray area and into the sports business ecosystem. This legitimacy endorsement will undoubtedly accelerate the legislative process at the state level in the US.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Don't blindly bet on HBM4! SK Hynix's earnings report isn't that easy to gamble on.
On October 28, SK Hynix's Q3 earnings report will be released. The community is overwhelmingly focused on HBM4 and AI computing power demand, all assuming the storage cycle is heading straight into a strong bull market.
But seasoned players in the storage sector know that Samsung and Micron are simultaneously ramping up HBM production capacity aggressively.
The benefits are visible, but the risk of capacity oversupply is also on the table, and premiums can be diluted just as easily.
Over the years in the storage industry, the biggest pitfall has been: during price hikes, production expands wildly, and when supply overflows, the market turns sharply.
Sentiment in the computing power chain is contagious; if earnings beat expectations, storage stocks surge accordingly; but if HBM shipments fall short, this wave of optimism can quickly reverse.
AI is a bonus, not a guaranteed shield for profit; the cyclical rules have never changed.
Do you think this earnings report can sustain the momentum for the HBM market? BTC is still below 80,000, but UNI has risen about 3%! BTC hasn't stabilized, and DeFi is starting to fight back? There are two pieces of news this time, but they shouldn't both be interpreted as "institutions accumulating."
First, look at $BTC, quoted at 79,826, up 0.29% in 24 hours. The price has turned positive, but it is still below 80,000. Rising and reclaiming lost ground are not the same thing.
Next, look at $ETH, quoted at 2,315, up 0.50% in 24 hours. It is slightly stronger than BTC in this window, but just based on the gains of these two, it’s still unclear if funds are shifting to DeFi.
Finally, look at $UNI, up about 3%, and the news behind it is worth breaking down.
On October 22, Uniswap launched Aggregator Hooks, integrating external liquidity. The protocol fees generated from related transactions help with UNI burn.
On the other hand, CME confirmed on October 20 that UNI futures have started trading. But futures can also be used for hedging, so this cannot be directly interpreted as institutions being bullish.
These two pieces of news involve one protocol business and one trading tool addition. My focus is on how much protocol fee and burn actual trading can bring, not how lively the announcements are.
More worth being cautious about than missing a bullish candle is reading "business progress" directly as "the coin price will keep rising."
#Anthropic正式申请IPO，或创上市估值纪录 First, to pour some cold water: just because someone has a heavy short position doesn't mean a decline has already been granted a free pass. Monitoring shows that the Core Trader 100 wallet 0x82f6bb…512ec has opened a short on the SP500 with 50x leverage, with a nominal value of about $2,516,400. Although I usually start by looking at bearish logic, what makes me cautious about this trade is whether the short seller can withstand the reverse volatility, rather than rushing to treat it as bearish evidence.
I am reluctant to strengthen the bearish judgment based on this for two reasons. First, the nominal position reflects risk exposure but does not prove the probability of the judgment being correct; just looking at this monitoring, we don't know if it is a hedge for other positions. Second, 50x leverage leaves very little room for error: roughly calculated by initial leverage, a price increase of about 2% corresponds to losses close to the initial margin, and the actual liquidation point depends on the account margin and maintenance margin requirements. My guess is that if the price rises and similar high-leverage shorts are forced to cover, the most uncomfortable will be those who chase the large order as a signal.
Of course, this short position could also be right. If the price continues to decline and new information supports the bearish logic, rather than just a few more short orders appearing, I will increase my recognition of the bearish direction. The result is not out yet; I will first watch how this position adjusts to reverse volatility and not treat the bet amount as the weight of judgment. The two-day moving average death cross of Bitcoin hasn't broken, and the daily chart being oversold is normal; don't take it as a reversal signal. Bottom-fishing at this time is like catching a falling knife in a downtrend.
At the end of the month, the Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting; in early November, the U.S. midterm elections will take place; Trump is still shouting about attacking Iran. With these three powder kegs packed together, volatility in the next half month is inevitable. Flash spikes mostly happen within minutes before and after data releases.
The Strait of Hormuz is blocked, inflation continues to rise, and the Fed can only tighten.
My choice is not to add positions before the election, keep my position under 30%, set stop losses properly, and wait for the results before making moves.Have you ever encountered those coins that stubbornly resist falling when the market crashes, making you think they're strong, only for them to suddenly perform a high-altitude plunge? That's the most frustrating kind of catch-up drop!
After reading the OKX Planet interview post by @记得止损, this guy's shorting strategy on altcoins is worth learning from. Combining his three iron rules (large market cap, overbought, marginalized), let's discuss the fatal signals I watch for when judging altcoins weakening.
1. Resistant to falling but not rising
When the market crashes violently, it moves sideways. You might think there's a strong holder defending it? Wrong, that's just poor liquidity; the weak holders haven't exited yet. Once the market stabilizes and rebounds slightly, it can't even make a splash. Basically, the main players are quietly selling off, ready to drop a big bearish candle anytime.
2. Positive news or unlocking imminent, but price remains stubborn
Like @记得止损 used ZRO as an example—large unlocking is coming soon, yet instead of falling, it crazily pumps and releases positive news. When things are abnormal, there's always a catch. This is testing retail investors' bottom lines, tricking them into buying. Don't get caught up at these times; it's often the best high-altitude shorting opportunity.
3. Extremely crowded long-short ratio
The market looks lifeless, but data shows retail investors are stubbornly holding long positions with heavy leverage, making it impossible to pump. The main players won't lift the price until they completely wash out these high-leverage holders.
To sum up, in this low-volume market, holding spot positions stubbornly is like being cut with a blunt knife. Choose altcoins with large market caps, previously overbought, and no capital support. Watch for the weakening signals above to short at high altitude; that's where the risk-reward ratio makes sense.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 All fell, but leverage keeps increasing — three key integer levels are simultaneously tested.
At midday, all three coins are in the red, BTC fell back below 80,000, ETH and SOL are grinding near their integer levels.
$BTC: The 80,000 level is repeatedly gained and lost. Current price is $79,721.7, down 0.47% in 24 hours, long-short ratio 2.34 (2.22 four hours ago), open interest 32,681 contracts, about $2.604 billion; nearly 100 liquidation orders with longs at 796,000 and shorts at 15,000.
$ETH: Tug-of-war around 2300. Current price $2,312.37, down 0.36%, briefly dipped below 2300 during the session then pulled back; long-short ratio 2.63, open interest 649,557 contracts, about $1.501 billion; liquidations with longs at 255,000 and shorts at 202,000.
$SOL: $100 is the most dangerous level. Current price $100.06, down 1.22%, largest drop among the three coins, briefly fell below 100 during the session; long-short ratio 3.11, highest among the three; open interest 3,275,492 contracts, about $328 million; liquidations with longs at 1,033,000 and shorts at 21,000.
Summary: Prices all fell, open interest all rose, long-short ratios all increased — leverage didn’t flee but actually increased during the drop. With the FOMC decision imminent, just taking note without taking sides. This is only a market record and does not constitute investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Last night BTC dropped below 80,000, and the group chat was full of people crying and panicking. I guess many pressed the sell button out of fear. Early this morning, after checking ETF fund flows, I found it very interesting that the Wall Street big players collectively played a disappearing act in this scenario!
$BTC ETF fund flow was actually zero yesterday, you read that right—both inflows and outflows were zero. A few days ago, BlackRock and Fidelity were still aggressively dumping (on the 23rd, 16.94 million ran out), but now at the 80,000 mark, these big players are holding their positions, indicating institutions are also waiting and watching, neither bulls nor bears daring to shoot first, all waiting for direction.
Looking at $ETH, it was the only one with inflows. While everyone else was hesitant, Fidelity quietly bought 69.14 million worth, forcefully turning the total market into a net inflow. They were dumping just the day before yesterday, but now at the 2,300 level, institutions clearly think "the price has dropped enough to be worth it," starting to build positions on the left side. This might be the most positive signal in today's market.
Lastly, $SOL looks a bit grim, still seeing outflows. Yesterday net outflow was 80,900, with Bitwise and Grayscale both exiting. Compared to $ETH’s institutional bottom-fishing, $SOL’s funding situation remains under pressure, and the selling pressure in the spot market hasn’t fully ended yet.
In summary: big money is extremely picky right now. BTC is stagnant, $SOL is being abandoned, and only $ETH is getting a sweet treat. Don’t just stare at the candlesticks guessing blindly; where the money goes is where we should look. Until BTC makes a move, I’ll stick to being out of the market and just watch the show When showing newcomers the news, I often remind them: first distinguish between "how much money there is" and "where the money is going." Zcash co-founder Sean Bowe released a ZIP draft proposing to redirect the 8% block subsidy automatically received by ZCG to NSM; ZCG currently holds about 91,452.98 $ZEC, valued at approximately $125 million.
📌 This perfectly illustrates stock and flow: the existing reserve is the water tank, and the ongoing subsidy is the inflow pipe. Using the example numbers, stopping the 8% subsidy inflow does not mean the existing 91,452.98 coins are taken away; redirecting the subsidy also should not be directly understood as reducing coin issuance.
My judgment is that this is more like a fund allocation adjustment and should not be directly labeled as a negative price factor: the reserve provides a buffer, the subsidy destination affects subsequent resource allocation, and the draft is not yet finalized. Newcomers often mistake "stopping funding inflow" as "immediate lack of money." Can you distinguish the difference between this 8% redirection and a reduction in issuance? If you don’t understand any step, leave a comment and let's discuss.$ZEC
Looking back at this year's review, the tokens that outperformed Bitcoin can be counted on three types: AI, privacy, and one miscellaneous. ZEC is now at 1222, with a 24-hour high reaching 1268; the privacy sector is really holding strong.
Bitcoin has been hovering below 80,000 these days, with a low of 79,455. ZEC didn't crash along, staying steady above 1200. I recently told a friend that privacy coins have the highest policy risk, often getting delisted by exchanges, which is a bit painful.
But I don't plan to chase at this level. After such a long sideways movement at a high level, chasing in and then facing a pullback would be tough for me. I'll wait for a dip before considering, anyway the market still has a long way to go.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Seeing the ecological funding money being redirected made my heart skip a beat 😰 Zcash co-founder Sean Bowe released a ZIP draft proposing to redirect the original 8% block subsidy automatically allocated to ZCG to NSM. The draft states that ZCG holds about 91,452.98 ZEC, worth approximately $125 million, enough to continue supporting related activities.
I feel this is more like a long-term account that needs to be settled clearly, and it’s not something to be taken as a positive signal right now. Having sufficient reserves allows room for adjustments, but the reserve value in USD will fluctuate with the coin price; if funding gradually depends on consuming reserves, then the spending pace becomes even more important. This is also why I won’t impulsively react just by seeing the word “sustainable.”
I only use spare money and admit I’m afraid of volatility. To be cautious, I will first watch the follow-up discussions on the draft, the specific arrangements of NSM, and ZCG’s fund usage plans. Once these become clearer, I will adjust my judgment accordingly. Good morning brothers! Last night BTC fell below 80,000, and the group chat was full of people crying and panicking. I guess many were scared into hitting the sell button. Early this morning, after checking ETF fund flows, I found it interesting that the Wall Street big shots collectively played a disappearing act in this scenario!
$BTC ETF funds were actually zero yesterday, you read that right—zero inflow and outflow. A few days ago, BlackRock and Fidelity were still aggressively dumping (on the 23rd, 16.94 million ran out), but now at the 80,000 mark, these big players are holding steady, indicating institutions are also waiting and watching, neither bulls nor bears daring to shoot first, all waiting for direction.
Looking at $ETH, it was the only one with inflows. While everyone else was hesitant, Fidelity quietly bought 69.14 million worth, forcibly turning the total pot into a net inflow. A couple of days ago, they were dumping, but now at the 2,300 level, institutions clearly think "the price has dropped enough to be worth it," starting to build positions on the left side. This might be the most positive signal in today's market.
Finally, $SOL looks a bit grim, still seeing outflows. Yesterday's net outflow was 80,900, with Bitwise and Grayscale both exiting. Compared to $ETH's institutional bottom-fishing, $SOL's funding situation remains under pressure, and the selling pressure in the spot market hasn't fully ended.
In summary: big money is extremely picky right now. BTC is stagnant, $SOL is being abandoned, and only $ETH got a sweet treat. Stop guessing blindly by staring at candlesticks; where the money goes is where we should look. Until BTC makes a move, I still insist on staying out and watching the show.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $MSFT is heavily investing in AI while simultaneously offering voluntary severance packages to 60,000 employees.
These 60,000 people represent about 27% of the company's total workforce. This means they can choose to leave with compensation, but how many will accept is still unknown. This is already Microsoft's second voluntary departure plan this year. Last year, the company also announced layoffs of about 15,000 employees.
Therefore, the impact of AI on employment may not only occur after it actually takes over specific jobs; it could also be reflected earlier through corporate budget allocations.
As more funds flow into chips and data centers, companies may also reassess which positions are worth continued investment and where personnel needs can be reduced.
Thus, to understand how AI affects work, besides seeing what new skills it has learned, we also need to observe where companies start spending money because of AI. $BTC $ETH On-chain data doesn't lie: BTC whales are quietly buying, while ETH is caught in internal conflict
The drop to 80,000 clearly reveals the bottom cards on-chain, showing two completely different scripts for the two coins.
For BTC, it's an open accumulation:
1. The number of whale addresses holding over 1,000 coins has returned to 2,044, totaling 7.17 million coins, accounting for 35.8% of circulating supply, a new high since mid-March;
2. Medium to large holders with 10 to 10,000 coins have accumulated nearly 90,000 coins in one month;
3. Public company Strive spent $511 million last week to buy 6,182 coins at an average price of 82,732, buying more as the price falls.
Retail investors are doing the opposite: small addresses holding less than 1 coin have dropped to a one-year low, Binance retail deposit volume doubled to $10.7 billion waiting to sell, while whale deposits decreased by 36%. Large holders are taking over, retail investors are selling at a loss, a classic script.
ETH, however, is a battle between bulls and bears:
The stubborn bull BitMine holds 6.05 million coins at a cost of 3,331, with an unrealized loss of $6.1 billion but is still adding positions; meanwhile, the Ethereum Foundation just sold 2,785 coins for stablecoins yesterday, and an ancient whale from the ICO era with a cost basis of $0.31 also transferred 1,500 coins to exchanges; more dangerously, a $270 million ETH long position nearly liquidated, urgently adding 9.21 million in margin at midnight, with a liquidation price around 2,181.
Conclusion: BTC shows a bottom accumulation structure, but don't rush before the FOMC on October 28 and the midterm elections on November 3; ETH's leveraged longs are too crowded, with a chain liquidation risk around 2,181, so make sure to keep enough margin when going long. I view this type of position opening as something to first place within the framework of liquidity and overall risk appetite: the willingness of funds to bear higher volatility and the market's ability to continuously absorb it are two different things. This time, Core Trader 19 opened or added a long position on $PUMP using 10x leverage, with a nominal position of about $215,700.
My judgment is that this position can be regarded as an observation point for risk appetite, but it cannot yet be taken as evidence that funds have fully shifted to an offensive stance. Nominal exposure does not equal the actual principal invested; leverage amplifies the bullish volume. Looking only at the position amount can easily lead to interpreting a single trade as the market's overall attitude.
If liquidity improves subsequently and absorbing funds continue to appear, then the willingness to go long on such high-volatility assets may spread into a broader recovery of risk appetite. This is my speculation. Conversely, if there is only leverage demand without sustained buying, the more aggressive the position, the more sensitive it is to reverse volatility; a single wallet may also have other hedges, so looking at this one trade alone cannot confirm the full intent.
Therefore, I currently tend to understand it as a localized offensive rather than a macro shift. I will continue to watch whether the absorption can be sustained and am not in a hurry to label this long position as "smart money leading the way."#HOODQ3TradingGrowth robinhood chain, robinhood's blockchain where users trade stock tokens, saw dex volume fall 30% to $6.35b in october 6-12. but defi tvl rose to $1.058b from september 30 to october 12, and morpho, a lending protocol, held $486.8m of open loans there. so lending is now a large use, not only trading. that week, borrowers paid about $417k in interest and liquidation bonuses on morpho, but morpho recorded zero protocol revenueBinance has brought stocks into the futures market.
On October 26, within a single day, Binance launched four perpetual contracts at four different times: at 09:00 EIDOUSDT, at 09:05 EQTUSDT, at 09:10 STMUSDT, and at 09:15 ABBVUSDT, all settled in USDT with up to 20x leverage.
The underlying assets are not cryptocurrencies but four real entities: iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF, American natural gas company EQT, chip manufacturer STMicroelectronics, and pharmaceutical giant AbbVie.
The pace of launching one contract every five minutes indicates this is not a trial but a production line. Previously, launching an altcoin required a week of warm-up; now, contracts for traditional assets can be queued and released wholesale.
This means two things for traders. First, trading hours are extended, allowing bets on these assets even after the U.S. stock market closes. Second, 20x leverage combined with the inherent volatility of stocks means a single earnings call can wipe out a position.
An unavoidable issue is pricing. When the U.S. stock market is closed, prices rely on market maker quotes, and if liquidity is insufficient, slippage can be severe.
I am more focused on STM and ABBV contracts; semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have been the most volatile sectors in the U.S. stock market this year. With these contracts launched, crypto accounts can directly express views on these two sectors for the first time, without needing a U.S. stock account or currency exchange.#US-Iran Discuss Hormuz Strait Opening Plan, Oil Prices Retreat
"Hormuz Negotiations: International Crude Oil Retraces Premium"
As soon as news broke about the US and Iran holding closed-door talks on a plan to open the Strait of Hormuz, the crude oil market immediately reacted. Brent and WTI crude oil prices intraday directly gave back the gains from the past two days.
Twenty million barrels of crude oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, and war risk premiums and freight rates for oil tankers are extremely sensitive to any disturbances. As long as a navigation security framework can be agreed upon, the geopolitical premium stuck in the throat will be quickly squeezed out.
The window for adjusting marine insurance rates is this Friday, when it will be seen whether major shipowners are willing to lower their premium quotes. $US-Iran Discuss Hormuz Strait Opening Plan$HYPE surged to 80.65 in the early morning before pulling back to 77.7. I'm leaning bullish: this time it's driven by a compliance narrative, and the pullback seems more like digestion.
Kraken's parent company Payward plans to become the first CFTC-regulated deployer on Hyperliquid HIP-3*, with Bitnomial handling clearing and NinjaTrader custodial accounts, offering perpetual contracts to U.S. users. Regulatory approval is still pending, and the HIP-3* whitelist is currently only on the testnet.
In terms of data, HYPE is up about +2.2% in 24h, outperforming BTC (−0.4%) and ETH; on HL, HYPE perpetual daily volume is about 460 million U, with total market perpetuals around 4.4 billion; October protocol revenue so far is about 55.6 million, expected to exceed 60 million by month-end.
Before the FOMC, will you wait for it to hold above 80 before watching, or buy near 76? Share your reasons.
Just personal observation, #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $HYPE is not investment advice.$BTC 周末跌破80000、盘中最低79332，而$ETH 同步滑向2321——这不是一次普通的洗盘，而是多头防线被逐层击穿的信号。真正值得警惕的不是跌幅本身，而是79000—80000这一近期唯一有效支撑区正在被反复测试：日线若实收于79000下方，78000将直接暴露；在重新站上82000之前，任何反弹都只是逃生窗口，而非趋势反转。 把镜头拉远，最刺眼的裂痕出现在资金流上。$ETH 现货ETF本周净流出2.21亿美元，10月累计失血11.8亿美元，连续第四周净流出——机构正在用脚投票，而不是口头看多。价格自2526高点回落，均线系统已呈空头排列，2280作为前低一旦被有效跌破，下方空间将打开至2150。这是资本流动与价格结构的双重确认，比任何单一技术指标都更诚实。 更关键的是杠杆端的清算结构。24小时内全网多头爆仓8201万美元，空头仅3670万，多空清算比超过2:1；其中$ETH 多头清算2241万美元，居各币种之首。这说明看多者正在被强制出清，而非被"震仓"——多头杠杆尚未清洗完毕，反弹的燃料正在枯竭。市场往往在此时低估下行惯性：当支撑失效与资金外流同时发生，crowd仍在等When I see this kind of news, I first think about the odds: Is one day's net inflow enough to offset the risk of chasing sentiment? According to Farside data, yesterday the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $110.3 million, all from BlackRock's IBIT; the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $88.6 million during the same period.
My judgment is that this looks more like a divergence in capital preference, not a broad market strengthening. Bitcoin has net absorption, but the source is concentrated, so it can't be considered a widespread institutional accumulation; Ethereum is still experiencing net outflows, which is insufficient to support the view that funds are spreading across the entire crypto market.
For me, if subsequent inflows continue and more products participate, the bullish logic will have a higher probability of success; if it's just a single day supported by a single entity, it's not worth taking on higher volatility based solely on this news. This is my conditional reasoning, and I will continue to monitor the sustainability of the funds, not using one day's data to endorse long-term expectations.#Franklin Templeton launches a new US stock dividend-to-BTC ETF
Have you noticed? Wall Street is getting more and more subtle about crypto. 😎
Franklin Templeton just created a new type of ETF with an amazing mechanism: instead of paying you cash dividends in fiat, it automatically uses the dividends from US stocks to buy Bitcoin right after the ex-dividend date. What does this mean? It means they are effectively forcing you to convert your US stock profits into regular Bitcoin investments. 🌱
Think carefully about the trend behind this. It shows that traditional asset management giants no longer reject the crypto space; instead, they are finding ways within regulatory frameworks to channel traditional funds into crypto assets. Once this pipeline is established, the potential for incremental capital is huge. 📈
But don’t get too excited just because it says “buy BTC.” The core is still a US stock fund, with Bitcoin as a regulated "enhancement" component, and its weighting is tightly controlled. Plus, the management fee is very low, clearly aiming to scale up.
In short, understand the mechanism before jumping in. In this market, understanding how institutions operate is much better than guessing blindly. 💡 Do you think this "dividends for Bitcoin" model can take off? $BTC $ETH First, a bit of cold water: leaving the strong sell-off zone does not mean the baton of an upward rally has already been passed. Glassnode states that recently BTC buyers have exited the strong sell-off zone, and the proportion of short-term holders in profit has dropped from nearly 100% in late September to about 70%. My judgment on this news is: the overheating has somewhat eased, but reading it directly as a bullish signal is not yet supported by enough evidence.
I am stuck on two points. First, the profit ratio refers to the distribution of holding gains and losses, not the actual volume sold; a decrease in profitable chips does not directly imply that selling pressure has been fully released. Second, selling pressure and buyer absorption are two different things; this data does not tell me how strong the new demand is. If absorption is insufficient, then even if the pressure from profit-taking weakens, the price may not necessarily move smoothly. This is my speculation, not a conclusion drawn from the data.
I also acknowledge that Glassnode's statement that "buyers expecting a continued rise are currently better positioned to enter than a month ago" may be correct, but the premise cannot be skipped. If we later see sustained demand absorption and no expansion of selling pressure during pullbacks, I will retract this caution. My reminder is simple: don't rush to get excited; first distinguish between "not so hot" and "strong enough."💻 I usually look at the "input" first, then the conclusion: StoneX raised the price target for Bitcoin reserve company Strive's stock from $32 to $43, an increase of 34%, reaffirming a buy rating; the material also mentioned that the new share issuance further supports its Bitcoin strategy.
For this code review, I am more concerned about whether the financing logic can be sustained, rather than the price target. Issuing shares can provide supplementary funds for the reserve strategy, but having funds in place does not mean the risks disappear. If future reliance on share issuance continues, then existing shareholders may face ongoing dilution; if Bitcoin weakens, then the value of reserve assets will also be under pressure. This is my stress test, not an outcome that has already occurred.
If it were me, I would add issuance conditions, fund usage, and downside scenarios to this logic before judging whether it is reasonable; you can't just test the upside branch. Please help me review: for this kind of reserve company, are you more worried about equity dilution or Bitcoin pullbacks? What am I missing in my logic?I didn't have time to look closely during the day at work, only spreading out the market window at night, and just happened to scroll to this post, which made my drowsiness retreat a bit 🌙. What keeps me awake is not price speculation, but a question: Should the fixed income from ecological funding be reconsidered?
Zcash co-founder Sean Bowe released a ZIP draft proposing to stop automatically allocating block subsidies to ZCG and redirect the original 8% share to NSM. The draft states that ZCG holds about 91,452.98 ZEC, worth approximately $125 million, and the existing funds are sufficient to continue supporting related activities.
My judgment is that this is more like an adjustment to budget rules and should not be directly interpreted as positive for the coin price. It is still a proposal; treating "someone proposed changing the rules" as "the rules have already changed" makes it easy to be misled by headlines when watching the market.
The reserve provides a buffer for discussion and adjustment, but the book value does not equal the annual available budget; subsequent spending arrangements still need to be seen. On the other hand, redirecting funds to NSM does not inherently mean higher efficiency; I would be more supportive of this adjustment if the new mechanism's purpose and constraints were clearer. These are my judgment criteria, not a conclusion.
A reminder to myself: Don't imagine that changing the direction of funds means value is increasing out of thin air. Who else is still awake at this hour? Are you looking at ZCG's funding expenditures or NSM's mechanism design? Which one influences your attitude toward this draft more?On the day Alpenglow went live, there were two sets of validator node numbers—one lively, the other barely mentioned.
The lively one was participation. 654 validator nodes completed the switch together, with 446 voting for the starting block. Anza said the entire handover took only 900 milliseconds. The day before going live, 151 nodes, accounting for about 20.3% of the stake, were marked as unprepared.
This switch also left a few loose ends. The validator software Firedancer and Frankendancer did not support the first round of migration, so operators had to temporarily switch to Agave 4.3.0. Some RPC nodes received final confirmation information slightly later than the validator nodes that directly participated in voting. After the upgrade, the number of transactions in the on-chain explorer noticeably decreased because most of the previous statistics were voting transactions from validator nodes.
The barely mentioned aspect was concentration. Data from Solana Compass shows that the minimum number of nodes controlling more than one-third of the stake dropped from 20 to 18 over the year. The stake share of the top ten validator nodes rose from 22.2% to 24.5%.
The new voting mechanism moved voting transactions off-chain, saving validator nodes voting fees and easing the burden on smaller nodes. Whether this number will reverse remains to be seen in a few months. $SOL Worldcoin (WLD) dropped 4.14% in a single day, hitting a recent low with a quote of $0.4354, and its market cap fell below $1.62 billion. The price fluctuated sharply between 0.432 and 0.458, with a daily trading volume of 14.97 million indicating concentrated selling pressure. Smart money signals remain net short, and long-short data are all zero — institutions are unwilling to even hold short positions during rebounds.
The core issues lie in the slowdown of Orb device promotion and cooling growth of biometric registered users, with the token unlocking schedule completely mismatched with demand. The social side is completely silent, popularity is unavailable, sentiment indicators are absent, and even the spillover effect of the AI narrative has failed to benefit it. FDV still exceeds $4 billion, with a circulation rate below 40%, making every rebound the best window for unlocking sales.
Core judgment: Before fundamentals improve, the 0.40-0.46 range will become the new box, with the risk of breaking downwards greater than the probability of breaking upwards. $ZEC today doesn't feel like it's grinding, more like it's having a meeting. Upgrades, funding, governance—three lines moving simultaneously, but the directions aren't aligned yet.
The upgrade line is the most certain. NU7 is scheduled to activate on November 5. Block time will be reduced from about 75 seconds to about 25 seconds. 60% of block fees will be reserved until February 2031.
The funding line is warming up. Grayscale's $ZEC ETF saw a rebound last week. Net inflow was about $41.09 million, ending three consecutive weeks of outflows. Monday still saw an outflow of about $10.45 million. Friday alone brought in about $20.52 million.
The governance line is the most uncertain. The co-founder proposed redirecting 8% of block subsidies into a network sustainability fund. It's still a draft, and community reactions vary. Current development funding is 20%, miners get 80%. The remaining 8% goes to community grants, and 12% goes into a locked development fund. Whether to change this depends on broader discussions, not something decided today.
The price line is in the middle. $ZEC is currently around $1,228. It rose about 1.67% in 24 hours, about 7.41% over 7 days, but still down about 25.75% over 30 days. Analysts see $834 as a key support level. Falling below that would look bad. But that's analysts' opinion, not a conclusion.
Among the three lines, the upgrade is the most certain, governance the most uncertain, and funding in between. I'll focus on the upgrade line first. I'll listen to governance, and won't rush to conclusions on price.[ECB Corporate Finance Survey: Corporate Side Confirms "Price Up, Volume Down" Credit Environment]
On October 26, the ECB released the Q3 Corporate Finance Survey (SAFE). It mirrors the Consumer Expectations Survey published on October 23—one surveys households, the other surveys companies. Together, these two datasets provide a clear picture of the credit environment in Europe.
This round of the survey covered about 12,800 eurozone companies (93% of which are SMEs), conducted from August 26 to October 2. Key data: a net 46% of companies reported an increase in bank loan interest rates, higher than 42% in Q2, with large companies experiencing the most significant deterioration (55%, previously 41%); a net 27% reported increases in other financing costs (fees, commissions); the proportion tightening collateral requirements rose from 10% to 14%. On the demand side, conditions were also weak: loan availability net declined by 5% (previously -1%), while financing demand remained basically flat, resulting in a "financing gap" indicator that stayed positive—the gap between desired borrowing and actual borrowing capacity persists.
However, there is a quality reminder to consider with this data: the ECB explicitly noted in its release that the sample composition changed significantly this round (majority were first-time respondents), and numeric questions such as inflation expectations and price expectations are "currently difficult to interpret." In other words, directional conclusions (credit tightening) can be trusted, but specific figures should be recalibrated once the sample stabilizes in the next round—highlighting only the negative numbers without this premise is an incomplete interpretation.
This means the corporate sentiment and the bank data mutually confirm each other: Europe's implicit tightening is ongoing. This is not good news for the profit recovery of European small businesses and also lowers the market's expectation flexibility regarding the ECB's rate cut pace. Next, we will see if the ECB's Bank Lending Survey (BLS) on October 30 aligns with the corporate side's sentiment this time.Strategy's decision to repurchase roughly $205M of STRC while buying no BTC is a useful reminder that treasury strategy is also liability management. With 848.5K BTC held at a $75,446 average cost, the balance sheet is already vast.
What remains uncertain is whether buybacks reduce funding costs enough to preserve flexibility when market conditions turn.
#CryptoTreasuryShifts $ETH Smart Money: Caught Between Bulls and Bears, Who Will Let Go First
$ETH current price 2322, slightly down 0.61%, funding rate 0.0046%. Smart money total positions $1.74 billion, 2361 traders, nominal long-short ratio 23.70%, with a significantly larger short volume.
Longs: 885 traders, $333.53 million positions, average price 2874.44, unrealized loss $79.2097 million, profit ratio only 33.33%. Cost far above current price, loss area still expanding. Shorts: 1476 traders, $1.4 billion positions, average price 2306.97, unrealized loss $9.5897 million, profit ratio 61.58%. Note: Shorts are not overall profitable, just that the current price is slightly above average price; most shorts are slightly trapped, “quickly getting out of the trap” does not mean already out.
2322 is stuck between long and short costs: above there is selling pressure from longs getting out of the trap, below there is short covering demand, the market is tugged back and forth, forming a long-short double kill. Funding rate is low, indicating weak chasing sentiment; short positions are concentrated, if price rises rapidly, covering may amplify volatility.
Data is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. Don’t rush to take sides, first see which side lets go first. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #英特尔代工转型迎来Terafab新变量 $INTC Revenue and DCAI will most likely meet or slightly exceed consensus, but this earnings report can hardly be called "better than expected" — profits are suppressed by foundry operations and capital expenditures, and the foundry story has been told for three quarters with no sign of external customers.
Q3 revenue consensus is $16.47 billion, management guidance midpoint is $16.3 billion, so there is little room to beat consensus. The real growth engine is the data center: Q2 DCAI revenue was $6.26 billion, soaring 59% year-over-year; Q3 consensus is $6.46 billion, with growth still at 57%. This part is solid, AI computing demand is indeed feeding the growth.
But the profit statement doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Q3 net profit consensus is only $1.49 billion, a sharp 63% year-over-year drop; adjusted EPS guidance is $0.38, even lower than Q2's $0.42. Where did the money go? Foundry. Q2 foundry operations lost $2.1 billion, with external customer revenue only $293 million — this external order volume is barely enough to cover minor expenses. 18A has indeed started mass production, but the officially announced external customers are still on mature process nodes; 14A won't mass produce until 2028, so the time gap before revenue arrives is at least two years.
The real "better than expected" isn't in the slight revenue beat of a few hundred million, but whether management dares to give a firm timeline for landing external foundry customers. The market has already voted with its feet: the stock price dropped 13% after the July earnings report and fell another 29% in the past month. Growth from DCAI alone cannot support the valuation of the "foundry transformation." #Strategy Earnings Preview: BTC's Book Gains Rebound Sharply $MSTR The book figures are absolutely explosive, but this is a fake beat driven entirely by the coin price holding up.
That 20.9 billion "book gain" is purely unrealized profit calculated under accounting standards from Bitcoin's Q3 rebound, with no real relation to the core business. Software sales revenue is only $129 million, yet EPS is an absurd $21.5, purely a financial engineering smokescreen.
The real focus is on how the financing side survives. Last week it scrimped and saved to buy 267 bitcoins (over $20 million), then turned around and spent $193 million to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares, even increasing the buyback limit by $1 billion. Why? Because STRC fell below its $100 par value, so buying back at a discount directly cuts the huge 12% annual interest burden, which is much better than buying Bitcoin at a high price.
So how to adjust capital allocation strategy? Simply put: the old "blindly issuing shares to borrow money to buy coins" flywheel no longer works; now it must first tighten cash to clean up and repair the balance sheet. Its current mNAV premium has dropped to the edge of 1x; the market is no longer naive, and no one wants to pay a high price for its shell anymore.
Summary: The income statement is indeed "better than expected," but that's thanks to Bitcoin, not Strategy. What really determines life or death is whether it can fix its broken financing channels.$BTC dropped below $80,000; will there still be a market rally?
There will be a rally, but most likely it won't be a one-sided trend. Instead, it will involve intense fluctuations and directional choices around the $80,000 mark. The drop on October 27 was more of a risk-off pressure ahead of an event, with the real catalyst coming later this week.
Currently, BTC is repeatedly tugging near $80,000, with buying support in the $79,400–$79,600 range below and short-term resistance between $80,500–$80,800 above. Spot buying in the U.S. remains weak; the Coinbase premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, and leveraged longs betting on a rise have recently suffered heavy losses. This indicates a lack of genuine buying support in the market, making rebounds prone to weakness.
The key variables focus on upcoming events: The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision in the early hours of October 29. The market widely expects no change, but the real risk lies in the chair's stance on a December rate hike—currently, the expectation for a December hike has risen to nearly 80%. If the language is hawkish, expectations of tightening liquidity will directly suppress BTC. Meanwhile, earnings reports from Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are concentrated, and if AI capital expenditures draw market funds away, it will also be bearish for the crypto market.
In short, the drop on October 27 was "pressure while waiting," and the market rally will most likely unfold after the Fed's decision. Whether $80,000 can hold is the short-term watershed; if it breaks and cannot quickly recover, the downside space may open up. Who dares to short $BZ now? Once there is news of war, it will explode directly on you 😭
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落
$BZ is stuck at the high level of 109. The core support is not the US dollar or interest rates, but the Middle East geopolitical supply premium. This must be clearly understood.
The recent Fed decisions, GDP, and PCE data may provide an opportunity to briefly push down crude oil prices, but it is difficult to directly drive it into a major bear market.
If Walsh's speech leans hawkish and PCE inflation exceeds expectations, the US dollar will strengthen, and crude oil will experience a short-term pullback; but as long as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not ease, the pullback will be temporary, and after falling, it is easy to rally back to the high level.
Conversely, if the stance is dovish and rate cut expectations rise, the US dollar will weaken, and crude oil will have the momentum to continue rising.
In simple terms: macro news can only create short-term fluctuations; geopolitics is the foundation of this oil price.
To see crude oil continue to decline, relying solely on this rate hike is not enough; the Middle East situation must ease and supply risks must be resolved.
Before that, high-level oscillation is the norm, so do not lightly take heavy short positions. #VoiceOfTrading: Your experience deserves to be heard **Bitmine sweeps over 10,000 more ETH, is Tom Lee's buying plan nearing its end?** Last week, Tom Lee's Bitmine increased its holdings by another 10,452 ETH, bringing the total holdings to about 6.05 million ETH, accounting for 4.95% of Ethereum's circulating supply. It is only about 58,000 ETH away from its long-term target of 5% holdings. But more noteworthy than the increase itself is the gradual slowdown in the buying pace. From previously increasing 15,112 ETH in a single week, then dropping to 12,535 ETH, and then to 10,452 ETH last week, Bitmine's buying intensity shows a declining trend. Considering the company previously set 5% as the target, as this target gets closer, the additional demand may gradually weaken. 📊 **Looking again at market performance, the signals are not optimistic.** ETH is currently priced at about $2,329, up 0.59% in 24 hours, but down 4.9% in the past 7 days, and down 13% cumulatively in nearly a month. Meanwhile, BMNR stock closed at $20.95, down 6.47%, hitting an intraday low of $20.93. On one side, ETH shows a slight short-term rebound, while on the other, BMNR stock price is clearly under pressure. The divergence in their performance reflects that the market's valuation of the company's coin-holding model may be undergoing a reassessment. However, in a single day$BEAT 目前整体趋势依然偏空。散户抄底情绪越浓，越要提防庄家反向收割，暂时继续观察空头结构是否延续。 📊 **多空数据：散户抄底情绪明显升温** - **散户方面：** 币安散户账户多空比达到 3.207，OKX 更是高达 3.55，多头明显占据优势。 - **大户方面：** 大户人数多空比为 3.5935，看多人数依然占多数，但大户持仓多空比已经骤降至 1.7038，说明多头人数与实际资金布局之间存在明显落差。 🔍 **链上结构：筹码集中，价格波动风险较高** Arkham 持仓数据显示，TreasuryUpgradeableProxy 持有约 30.81% 的 BEAT，多个 Gnosis Safe 多签金库合计控制的代币超过 50%。 这种高度集中的持仓结构意味着实际流通筹码可能相对有限，一旦大额资金集中买卖，价格就可能出现剧烈波动。不过，地址持仓集中并不等于一定存在人为操纵。 🔥 **通缩机制存在，但支撑力度仍需观察** HTX 数据显示，10 月 19 日至 26 日期间，BEAT 销毁约 124.5 万枚，相关收入约 8.28 万美元，累计销毁量已超过 3,132Today's set of leverage data, I only focus on one point:
Long leverage has clearly accumulated.
In the past month, the overall long-short leverage ratio has risen, especially for BTC, ETH, and SOL, with the amount of borrowed coins for long positions significantly exceeding that for short positions.
$BTC : Long borrowed amount 1356.11 BTC, short borrowed amount 75.21 BTC
$ETH : Long borrowed amount 16,600 ETH, short borrowed amount 772.03 ETH
$SOL : Long borrowed amount 108,100 SOL, short borrowed amount 4241.84 SOL
This indicates that market sentiment is concentrating in the same direction.
But I won't directly take this as a bullish signal.
The more concentrated the leverage, the easier it is for the market to experience short-term liquidations, especially near news events and key levels.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Last night I was still waiting for 81,000, and today I have to keep an eye on 79,000 again. This BTC rebound is really just enough to make people reluctant to sell. It finally bounced a bit this morning, but BTC turned down again near 80,300, ETH didn't even touch 2,335, and the more it bounces, the lower it goes. It just doesn't inspire much desire to go long.
I actually want to wait for BTC to return near 80,000 to short a bit. The 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80,041, right pressing down on the head, and MACD is still below the zero line. But if I sell directly at 79,800, I'm afraid it will bounce after I sell, since 79,650 below is too close. I'd rather set a reminder first and see if it really returns to 80,000–80,100, so I don't impulsively chase longs if a single bullish candle pulls up. I only want to put in a small position; if it reaches 80,350 again, I'll take it back and exit. This trade is only meant to play the current downtrend, not to hold and bet on the big direction.
I might take some off at 79,650, but 79,450 is just a thought, not necessarily waiting for it. Especially since it hasn't broken the intraday low today, don't short and then start hoping for a waterfall drop. I'm not interested in ETH for now; it hasn't reclaimed 2,321, and 2,300 is close below. Making a few bucks means getting swept back and forth. I'll leave SOL alone for now too; DeFi Development recently disclosed an increase of 5,346 tokens held, but the price still grinds back near 100. Damn, there's no shortage of bullish news, but what's missing is a price movement that lets me feel comfortable after buying. I'll wait for BTC to bounce; if I can't catch this short, then forget it. I really don't want to keep paying fees back and forth between 79,800 and 80,000.Pinched for two days, so tired, is 79,000 diamonds the bottom?Conclusion first: AI computing power rental has its first on-chain perpetual. On October 26, Injective launched the SICI index perpetual, with 10x leverage and USDC margin. But $INJ only rose 2.4%, the market did not price in this narrative.
SICI tracks the rental prices of five Nvidia cards: H100 accounts for 40%, B200 25%, plus H200, A100, and RTX 4090, updated based on a 7-day average price. It is not Nvidia's stock price, but "how much it costs to rent a card."
Three reminders. First, to trade you can only go to Injective's own dApp; this index is not on OKX, and it has separate liquidity from OKX's $INJ perpetual. Second, the index updates based on a 7-day average price, not spot quotes. Third, more people are bearish on rental prices now: Gartner warns that over 80% of professional AI clouds may not survive until 2030, and Musk said over 200 neoclouds might go bankrupt; rental prices are going down, so longs lose first.
$INJ 24-hour volume is $21.54 million, open interest only $5.43 million; funding rates are near the floor price, longs are not crowded.
Conclusion: This product is interesting but does not constitute a reason to buy $INJ. Will you try Injective's dApp?Running a small company, my biggest fear is treating the inventory on the books as cash that can be used to pay salaries at any time. Looking at this message, I first calculate the input-output: fixed allocations can be discussed for cancellation, but risk reserves must be calculated based on actual expenditures, not just asset valuations.
Zcash co-founder Sean Bowe released a ZIP proposal suggesting stopping the automatic allocation of block subsidies to ZCG, redirecting the original 8% share to NSM. The proposal states that ZCG holds about 91,452.98 ZEC, valued at approximately $125 million, and the existing funds are sufficient to continue supporting related activities. This is still a proposal, not yet implemented.
My judgment is: re-examining fixed subsidies makes business sense, but "having enough stock" alone is not enough to prove that reallocating funds is more cost-effective. Doing business means you can't keep renewing budgets just because a department has money on its books, nor can you assume it doesn't need cash flow just because it has inventory.
I will watch two sets of accounts: one is the input-output of funded projects, what the money spent has returned; the other is the expenditure timeline and reserve endurance. If expenditures need to be continuously realized, and reserve valuations fluctuate, then even a sufficient book balance may face turnover pressure. This is my risk analysis; the material does not provide a specific expenditure table.
For me, the key is whether NSM can use money more effectively than the original allocation method. How would business friends view this: facing such risks, would you budget based on reserve valuations, or first keep enough reserves to cover fixed expenses? The "parasitic" nature of modular DA: Prosperity relies entirely on token issuance, who can generate independent value?
Modular and DA (Data Availability) sectors are often seen as the "water sellers" fueling the public chain boom. But looking deeper, some projects' lifelines still depend on the token issuance frenzy of L2.
Comparing these three targets:
$TIA: The token price movement heavily depends on "token issuance expectations." The actual on-chain Blob data demand remains weak, with recent monthly revenue only about 6500 TIA. Once the new L2 token issuance hype fades, DA networks lacking real external paid support are very likely to see their valuations drop sharply with the overall market liquidity contraction.
$EIGEN: The shared security mechanism has been implemented, but real AVS business has yet to scale. Although ELIP-12 stipulates that 100% of protocol fees route to the buyback contract, current monthly revenue is about $650,000, far below the tens of millions of dollars worth of token unlocks released monthly. Net deflation is minimal, and it still heavily relies on inflation subsidies in the short term.
$PENDLE: Has established an independent trajectory. As long as interest-bearing assets exist on-chain, there is a hedging demand between locked interest rates and speculative gains. Its mechanism of mandatorily using up to 80% of income for buybacks is built on real transaction fees, not on endless chain-building frenzies.
Reflection:
Though seemingly all infrastructure, if DA and AVS cannot establish real demand independent of "token issuance subsidies," they remain fragile high-beta assets. The true trump card to weather cycles is to find protocols that can collect tolls from real trading activity regardless of bull or bear markets. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Confirmed by the look in your eyes, I am the wrong personUSDe is now natively launched on X Layer, which is quite practical for those who often hold dollars on-chain.
First, let's explain how it differs from USDT. USDT itself does not generate interest; if you want to earn yields, you have to find products yourself and bear the risks of those products. Money just sits idle in your wallet. USDe is a synthetic dollar issued by Ethena. After staking it into sUSDe, you participate in yield distribution according to the rules, and the yield is not arbitrarily given.
Where does the money come from? Three sources: first, funding fees and basis from hedging trades; second, staking yields from assets like ETH; third, interest from some lending and reserve assets. Simply put, it earns money from market structure, not from inflation.
The significance of launching on X Layer lies in the use case. Previously, if you had USDe, your options were limited and you had to consider cross-chain usage; now you can directly hold and trade it on X Layer. Later, OKX Wallet will also support USDe staking, and USDe will be added to the yield farming cycles. For those who already have positions, there is an additional hassle-free option.
However, synthetic dollars are not deposits; yields come from strategies, and strategies can fail. In extreme market conditions, funding fees can turn negative, sUSDe can trade at a discount, and depegging may occur. Do not treat it as a risk-free piggy bank.
USDe is issued by the third-party protocol Ethena. The above is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.#Strategy暂停增持，Strive与BitMine扩大储备
The boss has something to say
There is a clear divergence in corporate treasury allocations.
Strategy did not buy BTC last week but instead repurchased about $205 million in STRC preferred shares, maintaining a holding of 848,500 shares. It chose to prioritize credit preservation and stabilize its capital structure. Strive increased its BTC holdings by 6,182 coins, bringing the total to 43,000 BTC, but the newly issued preferred shares carry a high dividend rate of 15%, resulting in very high financing costs. BitMine increased its ETH holdings by 10,452 coins, totaling 6.05 million ETH, of which 5.23 million are staked, with an expected annualized staking income of about $318 million.
I believe the competition now is about whose model is more stable. High-interest financing to buy coins can crush cash flow when prices stagnate. Strategy's repurchase action indicates the leader has started to manage risk. BitMine relies on staking for cash flow, which is relatively stable.
In the market, BTC fell 0.62%, ETH fell 0.66%. BTC experienced a waterfall drop last night; now we watch if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't hold, expect a deeper correction, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Do not chase the rise or kill the fall; set your stop-loss orders properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC After the U.S. stock market closes, let's first review the account. Three positions, three different statuses, and the subsequent handling strategies are completely different. $TSLA is already approaching the risk line. Current loss is 106.59 (−21.43%), mark price 394.19, liquidation price 416.23665, with a difference of about 22.05 dollars. The margin ratio has risen from 58.61% yesterday to 61.91%, increasing risk pressure further. Yesterday I only recorded the distance but did not specify the next step. After today's opening, this position must have a clear handling plan: either close the position and accept the 106.59 loss; or continue holding while reassessing the risk and follow-up plan. No more hesitation within today. $UNI has given back profits for the fourth consecutive day. The return rate dropped from +83.92% to +75.62%, then to +54.60%, and now only +38.38%. The profit amount also decreased from 71.92 to 37.94. I mentioned yesterday that I would set a clear exit line for it, and now it is officially set: if the mark price falls to 7.35, all remaining positions will be closed. This line is less than 2% away from the current price, which is indeed tight. But with profits shrinking for four consecutive days, it shows that the tolerance range cannot be endlessly relaxed. Rather than watching unrealized gains continue to erode, it is better to clarify exit conditions in advance. $DOGE remains unchanged for now. Current unrealized profit is 141.02 (+14.53%), mark price 0.0778 This week the market is being pulled by the same rope, with the Federal Reserve's rate meeting on the 27th to 28th, a strong dollar and high oil prices weighing on all risk assets.
BTC didn't benefit from the US stock market's rally; instead, it slid near the 80,000 mark, with spot ETFs seeing net outflows exceeding $700 million for two consecutive days, and US buyers showing weak willingness.
On the other hand, the Nasdaq rose 0.8% on Monday, with tech stocks ignited by Anthropic's IPO filing and major earnings reports, and NVDA rising 2.5%.
The same macro backdrop, but opposite sentiment on both sides: the crypto circle is waiting for the rate decision, while the stock market is betting that AI earnings can support the high valuations.
For BTC, the first support to watch is whether 80,000 can hold; if broken, 75,000 is the next reference. For the Nasdaq, attention is on whether Google and Microsoft earnings reports will provide a foothold.
$BTC $NVDA $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 ⚠️ The Federal Reserve's rate decision meeting is approaching! The crypto market is entering a wait-and-see mode in advance
The Federal Reserve's rate decision meeting is coming this Wednesday, and the market has already reacted in advance! The crypto market is the first to back down, with BTC falling below the 80,000 mark, ETH weakening simultaneously, and many traders actively reducing positions and shrinking risk, quietly waiting for the meeting to release key signals.
The focus this time is not whether to raise rates now, but whether Waller will release a hawkish hint about a rate hike in December. Once hawkish remarks are made, market liquidity will continue to tighten, and the risk of pressure on the crypto market will further increase.
But the market never lacks stubborn players! Just now, some funds boldly bet 68 million, wagering that BTC can surge past 90,000 after the midterm elections.
On one side, funds are fleeing for safety; on the other, large funds are betting on long positions against the trend. The intense battle between bulls and bears has pushed market divergence to the max. Volatility is often extremely fierce on the eve of the rate decision meeting, with frequent flash crashes. Do not hold heavy positions stubbornly; prioritize risk control and wait for the direction to become clear before acting accordingly!
$BTC $ETH
⚠️ Market views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. The market is highly volatile; trade cautiously
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议