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848,000 Bitcoin tokens are in cold storage; that's not just a position, it's like a whole bluefin tuna hanging over an open flame—$20.9 billion in quarterly unrealized gains, like oil dripping and sizzling on the charcoal, the sound so pleasant it makes you forget there are other pots cooking in the kitchen.
But a true chef never applauds the dripping oil. The oil is the result; the heat control is the skill. The Q3 earnings report won't be served until after the U.S. market closes on October 29, and what I have in front of me now is the ingredient list and seasoning chart: the main dish piled up to nearly 850,000 BTC, so heavy it almost bends the whole stove; at the same time reaching for a $176 million preferred stock buyback—that's a carefully measured thickening, not an addition, but a reduction. When you have unrealized gains in hand, you don't rush to pour more oil into the pot; instead, you skim the foam off the surface and simmer the broth to concentrate the cost—this is the old-school method and the safest way to avoid disaster.
What truly decides whether this dish can earn a star is never how much main dish there is, but the ratio. The mainstream coins are the main dish, taking up 70% of the plate; missing even a piece of meat ruins the presentation; altcoins are the seasoning, a pinch to enhance aroma, but too much makes the whole pot bitter; leveraged contracts are the super spicy chili—just a fingernail-sized amount can lift the soul of the dish, but a shaky hand dumping half the jar will burn the intestines and scare all the guests away the next day. Now the main dish is already exaggeratedly thick, and the heat keeps increasing; the problem isn't the flavor, but the kitchen size: the stove is only so big, and if you want to keep adding ingredients to the pot of 850,000 BTC, you have to rely on external financing to get a bigger stove or portion the existing broth into smaller servings to feed new products.
And I can hear the commotion from the neighboring stove. The tech stocks in the U.S. market are secretly competing with this side; one side is running on oil, the other on sugar, but the base flavor is becoming more alike—capital is choosing the more fuel-efficient pot. Stored yields suddenly turn sweet, and sugar color easily overshoots, and when it overshoots, it turns bitter.
So the next focus isn't how much unrealized gain there is, but whether this pot needs a new stove, which stove to add fuel to, and whether that jar of chili has been opened. Positions can be heavy, but ratios can't be messed with; having a big enough pot doesn't mean you dare to turn up the heat. True masters always use the overflow oil to season the next dish, not pour all the oil back into the fire. #strategyq3btcgains#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC around 80,150, the third test of the 80,000 mark, 80,000 has become a “meat grinder.” ETF weekly inflow is 301 million but lost 774 million in the last two days, with a net outflow of 314 million in October, showing structural fragility. 81,500-82,000 has turned from support to resistance, with dense buy orders below 79,300. Before the FOMC, no position taking, no short chasing, no bottom fishing, wait for volume confirmation.Last night presented a rather divided picture: U.S. stocks rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.82%, Microsoft up 1.54%, but Bitcoin remained flat at 80070, not moving at all.
More notably, MSTR fell 4.24% even before its earnings report was released, as funds exited early. As one of the biggest buyers in the crypto space, it was sold off prematurely.
Looking at Bitcoin's own 4-hour chart, during the U.S. stock market session last night, it saw the largest volume in nearly a week, yet the price barely moved—a classic case of high volume with stagnant price. Some are desperately buying at this level, while others are desperately selling, resulting in a stalemate at 80,000.
So it's not that no one is entering the market; rather, buyers and sellers collided head-on.
This balance won't last long. The Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow, with results announced at 2 a.m. on the 29th. MSTR is also releasing its earnings this week. These two events coinciding are specifically meant to break this balance.
My view is that the high volume with stagnant price above 80,000 is neither a top nor a bottom, but a divergence. The end of this divergence will determine the direction. Breaking above the double top at 80,850 means buyers win; breaking below 79,200 means sellers win. Until then, no one can claim stability.
What do you think—who will blink first this time, the bulls or the bears?
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 $MSTR $BTC $ETH A brief analysis of BTC short-term trend from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Wave Theory, volume-price relationship, order flow, and price action (strategy suggestions)
Comprehensive judgment
Dow Theory confirms the panic bottom at 79,275 breaking the downtrend structure
Chan Theory first buy confirmation + bottom break reversal structure
Wave Theory Y' wave ends, new round of impulse wave ① in progress
Volume-price relationship: 20.3 billion daily volume + 1.245 billion Delta = sellers completely cleared out
Order flow +1.245 billion is the strongest accumulation signal of the year
Price action panic bottom + long lower shadow + holding above 80k = complete bottom structure.
Six-dimensional comprehensive: 79,275 is the ultimate bottom of the six-week grinder, currently at the starting point of a new 4,000+ point rally. But note: only 400 million low volume in the early session on 10-27, true direction confirmation requires waiting for the US session (after 20:00) volume breakout at 80,500-81,000.
$BTC #星球日报 Crypto markets are attempting a rebound, but the money trail suggests relief rather than reversal. The four-hour window tells one story; the 24-hour and 30-day windows tell another, and the gap between them is where the real signal sits. On the latest four-hour reading, $BTC drew $39.36 million in net spot inflows and $127 million in net contract inflows. $ETH followed with $24.24 million spot and $56.19 million in contracts. That looks like buyers stepping back in. Zoom out, though, and the samThe $SUI market hasn't really moved much, but the funds on the $SUI chain have completely withdrawn.
Stablecoins ran off by 14% in a week, and DEX trading volume was directly halved by 46%.
No matter how loud the off-chain hype is, money simply can't be retained on-chain. With liquidity drying up like this, there's not even a decent buy order; don't even think about the $1 mark bouncing back in the short term.
#SUI
$SUI
👇$BTC barely holds above 80,000 but still gasps on the edge of a cliff: I don't believe this small rebound can reverse the bearish pressure
As of October 27, BTC is quoted at $80,237.52, with a 24-hour range of $79,368.67—$80,844.70. Although the price has slightly recovered compared to the 24-hour opening, it has still retreated from the $84,898 high over the past 7 days, and the overall weakness remains unchanged.
I believe the previous sharp rise and fall were not caused by a single bearish factor: after the surge, profit-taking was concentrated, combined with the chain liquidation of leveraged funds after key support was lost, which amplified the volatility. On the news front, cautious sentiment before the Federal Reserve meeting and concerns about AI trading pressured risk assets, confirming the pullback at that time; stablecoin payments and the delay of South Korea's crypto tax are more medium to long-term factors and have not yet reversed the short-term risk-off atmosphere.
Technically, the MACD death cross remains, with DIFF at -491.63 and the histogram at -351.38; BTC is below MA7 $81,161 and MA25 $82,574. RSI(6) has risen to 32.79, indicating some support at low levels but no reversal signal yet. As a bear, my clear observation target is $79,221: if it falls below this level again effectively, the weakness may spread; only by regaining and holding above $81,161 should we be wary of a bear-covering style recovery.
The above is only market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.$DOOD (Doodles, an NFT concept token) is currently a typical small-cap coin driven by Korean capital speculation, with cautious market sentiment and highly volatile short-term trends. Current market price: 0.002301 USDT • 24h: +64.23%, trading volume approximately 6.99 million USDT Market mainstream view • The rise is not project-driven but pushed by exchange funds: recently (October 21), there was a concentrated buy-in on the Upbit KRW market causing a sharp surge; at that time, Upbit accounted for about 46% of global trading volume (approximately 124.8 million USD), then quickly fell back more than half from the day's high, a typical "Upbit short-term overheating" pattern [X analysis ↗]. • Disconnected from fundamentals: during the same period, the floor price of Doodles NFTs only rose about 6%, seriously diverging from the token's multiple-fold increase; analysis points out almost no secondary catalysts from the project, mostly FOMO and circulating capital entering. • High leverage risk: derivatives trading volume once reached about 60 times that of spot, indicating prices are mainly determined by leveraged traders, which easily amplifies price swings. • This round of rebound has not yet returned to previous highs: current price is about -86% compared to the historical high (0.01753 USDT), and about +112% premium compared to the historical low of 0.001109 USDT, overall still in a violently fluctuating range near the lows 🚨 Overnight US stocks rebounded over 1%, but Bitcoin did not follow — this might be the most worrisome divergence this month.
US stock risk appetite is back, but BTC didn’t catch the wave and is still tugging around the 80,000 mark (OKX currently around 80,200, with a 24-hour low touching 79,370); even more striking is the other side: spot gold continues to rise at $4,017, silver stands above 53.9. Funds are not oscillating between risk-off and risk-on, but moving into precious metals — the US stock rise is driven by earnings expectations, and crypto didn’t get a share of this.
The hottest topic is this week’s FOMC decision, with results coming tomorrow night. My stance: wait and see. Reason: the market’s mainstream pricing expects no change, all suspense is in December, and front-running before the event has very low cost-effectiveness; hold 80,000 then watch for a rebound, if lost, admit the mistake.
Do you think the funds moving to gold is a temporary diversion or the start of a trend?
$BTC $ETH #欧意星球 #BTC行情 #Cryptocurrency #FOMCDecision
The above is my personal market observation, data as of today, not investment advice; crypto assets are highly volatile, please judge independently and bear your own risk (DYOR).The biggest mistake on October 29 is to watch the Federal Reserve announcement at midnight and then assume the direction for the entire day.
The interest rate decision is announced at 2:00 AM, followed by a press conference at 2:30 AM. The market first trades on the policy wording, with BTC leading the initial wave of volatility.
The real verification comes at 8:30 PM.
The preliminary US Q3 GDP, initial jobless claims, and September core PCE are released simultaneously. GDP is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 3.1%, and core PCE is expected to rise from 3.0% to 3.1%.
This combination is critical:
Strong GDP and rising core PCE mean the market re-trades the expectation of higher interest rates lasting longer.
Weak GDP and rising core PCE lead directly to stagflation trading.
Only when both growth and inflation cool down simultaneously do risk assets have a foundation for sustained rebound.
Therefore, the price moves at midnight are just the first round of pricing; the evening data is responsible for confirming or overturning it. BTC leads the direction first, ETH and SOL amplify the volatility, and ZEC’s independent trend must also pass liquidity tests.
I do not chase trades based on the first big bullish or bearish candle at midnight. October 29 is not a one-sided market day but a day when the direction is continuously rewritten. Yesterday I was still down 58%, today I recovered and am only down 12%! It turns out what saved me wasn’t good news, but short sellers covering their positions
Family, last night I was still emo in the pit, but when I woke up this morning, the unrealized loss on $ETH shrank from 58% to 12%, and I immediately sat up.
Why did it rise? You might not believe it, but it wasn’t because of any major positive news; it was because short sellers were covering. Earlier, they smashed the price down, trapping a bunch of leveraged short positions. After the price stopped falling, bottom-fishing funds entered, and with short sellers taking profits and covering their shorts, the shorts buying back actually pushed the price up a bit. ETH technically rebounded 1% today, and my long position benefited from that recovery.
The market sentiment is also awkward now; the Fear and Greed Index is at 48, stuck at "neutral" for two consecutive days—neither panicking nor greedy. Volume is low on both rises and falls, a typical scenario before the FOMC meeting where everyone is cautious and just watching.
Honestly, this kind of rebound caused by short covering is the most fragile—it’s like "trampling and then bouncing back on their own," not a real buying surge. My position recovering from 58% loss to 12% gave me a slight relief, but I don’t dare feel secure—after all, the decision won’t come out until the early morning of the 29th, and today’s move is just a brief pause before the storm.
At times like this, the worst thing is to add to your position confidently after a rebound. My position is still trapped, so I’ll just patiently wait for the FOMC. Whether the rebound window created by short covering can turn into a real reversal depends on what the Fed says.October 27 Q Observation: Handing Voting Over to AI, Does That Mean Giving Up Control Too?
Q experienced significant volatility today, with Quack AI once again becoming the focus of discussion. This morning, Gate's spot rolling 24-hour trading volume was about 28.25 million USDT, and KuCoin's was about 8.8 million USDT. The sharp price surge easily makes people focus only on the next price point, but what’s more worth questioning about this project is how much authority AI actually obtains when participating in governance on behalf of users.
The project officially positions Q as a governance and utility token, usable for on-chain governance, delegating decision-making to AI agents, and accessing tools. The official FAQ also states that users can revoke delegated authority and reclaim direct voting rights. This means "letting AI act on your behalf" is not the same as "permanently giving up control"; the specifics depend on the contracts and scope of authorization used.
Its Q402 document also lists policy constraints such as permissions, limits, and expiration times. Automated execution can reduce repetitive operations but cannot judge whether a proposal is reasonable for the user; keeping execution records does not guarantee that the execution results will meet expectations. The document describes the project design; this article does not include actual contract permission testing.
The usage of governance tools and short-term token price are separated by actual demand, circulating supply, and market liquidity. Today's trading volume does not represent new user numbers, nor net inflow. The reverse volatility after the surge, misconfigured authorizations, and contract execution risks need to be considered separately.
$Q #Q
For informational purposes only, not investment advice. Robinhood's trading revenue is growing fast, relying on volatility. Breaking down the sources of this round of trading revenue, the elasticity basically depends on retail turnover, and turnover is supported by volatility. Putting several numbers of $ETH together here, you can see how this round of turnover has been built up.
The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $229 million from October 12 to 16, with a cumulative weekly outflow of nearly $700 million, and the spot ETH ETF also experienced net outflows during the same period. Incremental funds have not pushed it up.
On the high-leverage side, the 25x ETH long position of that trader was completely liquidated, leaving only $5,357 in the account, with a cumulative loss of $35.37 million. The 25x positions are still being liquidated, indicating that a significant portion of the turnover is contributed by forced liquidations.
This week also includes the October FOMC interest rate decision, so the source of volatility is there, but the direction is undecided.
Turnover and revenue are two different things: trading volume driven by forced liquidations and stop losses may not continue next quarter. For Robinhood's trading business to continue growing, incremental funds need to support it, but these numbers are not visible yet.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ #AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？
AMZN, Nasdaq, and BTC liquidity resonance
The current macro liquidity environment is extremely fragile: if Amazon is slaughtered due to "revenue exceeding expectations + terrifying Capex + FCF turning negative,"
BTC is very likely to dive along with it. And at this critical moment, the string holding BTC at the 80,000 mark is easily snapped.
The tech giant's capital expenditure might be seen as "ineffective internal competition," which would directly trigger a liquidity squeeze across the entire market. BTC has been hovering around 80,000 for several days. Yesterday, I even prepared for a short squeeze, but as of today, a decent daily rebound still hasn't come! Is everyone really just waiting for the Fed? I think it's more like the bears can't break through for now, and the bulls are unwilling to chase higher! I just saw some on-chain data: retail investors' BTC inflows to exchanges in the past 30 days surged from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, hitting a six-month high, while large holders' inflows dropped from $5.9 billion to $3.8 billion. Retail investors are busy sending coins to exchanges, but large holders are reducing their transfers. Isn't this market situation quite awkward? There's support below 80,000, but no sustained buying pressure above! ETH is also weak; Hayes has cleared directional positions, and foundation-related addresses exchanged 2,785 coins. The 4-hour moving averages haven't truly stabilized, which to me looks even weaker than BTC. I still maintain a short-term bearish bias with oscillation, but I don't want to chase pumps or dumps near 80,000! Before the rate decision, treat 79,300 to 80,400 as a consolidation box; intraday spikes don't count as valid breakouts. No rate hike in October is already priced in; more important than the decision is whether BTC can hold above 80,000 after Wash's speech and reclaim 80,800 to 81,100. If it can't hold, I still see any rebound as a correction; if 79,220 breaks again, don't expect support at 80,000 to hold forever! #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
US Stock Market Analysis: Behind the AI Frenzy, Someone Is Quietly Paying the Bill
Overnight, the three major US stock indices all closed higher: the S&P 500 rose 0.70%, the Nasdaq rose 0.82%, but don’t be fooled by the indices—Goldman Sachs AI Index surged 2.49%, while the S&P components excluding AI only rose 0.02%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led with a 2.82% gain, Nvidia rose 2.40%, Micron rose 2.98%, and Lumentum surged over 8%. All the gains are in AI; other assets are just tagging along.
Impact of macro news on various assets:
Anthropic officially filed for an IPO, reporting $16.286 billion in revenue for the first half of the year, with adjusted operating profit turning positive for the first time, but a GAAP net loss of 80.7 billion mainly due to paper losses from convertible bond fair value changes.
Meta simultaneously launched up to $95 billion in equity financing, with Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom interested in subscribing up to $5 billion.
These two events together answer the question of "Who foots the bill for AI capital expenditure?"—the answer is a siphoning from the stock market. On the US Treasury side, the 10-year yield slightly fell to 4.98%, with the market awaiting the Federal Reserve decision; current pricing shows over 90% probability of no change in October, but December rate hike expectations remain.
Oil prices retreated slightly, WTI down about 1.5% to $101.76, with Middle East risk premium still intact.
The AI narrative is indeed reignited, but Meta’s own 1.88% decline is the real signal. The S&P remains stuck below the 50-day moving average $BTC: Go long!
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to pull back and stabilize in the 79,500-80,000 range (above the previous spike low and the round number) before entering a long position.
· The initial target is 80,800 (24-hour high) and the EMA resistance zone; a valid breakout would target 82,000. Set stop loss below 79,000.
Core rationale:
1. Extreme short positions: Chart 2 shows a nominal long-short ratio of only 27.83%, with short positions reaching 2.81 billion U, nearly 4 times the longs! The average short cost is 76,643, currently floating a loss of over 126 million U. Once a rebound occurs, it can easily trigger an epic short squeeze.
2. Long-short double liquidation shakeout: The average long price of 86,645 is also deeply underwater (floating loss of 62 million U). Around 80k is a typical shakeout meat grinder, with a violent spike down to 79,168 confirming support; short selling momentum is temporarily exhausted.
3. Technical convergence: The 1-hour EMA5/10/20 are tightly clustered near 80,100, signaling an imminent breakout. Given the extreme crowding and losses among shorts, the probability of an upward breakout triggering a short squeeze is much higher than a continued one-sided decline.
#October FOMC rate decision will be announced this week $FIL fil is basically in a do-or-die state for the next year. Currently, the crypto space is all about achieving real-world adoption; relying solely on narratives to pump the price is becoming increasingly difficult. The recent series of strategic moves will determine whether commercialization takes off. If it succeeds, the flywheel spins, resulting in multiples, even tens of times growth. If it fails, it might slowly die out:
Solstice says: Bring paying customers, and I'll give you more rewards;
If you don't, the rewards will be burned, and no one gets anything for free.
↓
Integral Spacetime says: Then I'll just buy companies with customers,
and bring thousands of paying users onboard at once.
↓
Filecoin Pay USD settlement surges
↓
Solstice service reward shares are activated by real demand (no longer burned)
↓
SP/service providers earn real money → attracting more SPs to enter
↓
Larger capacity → attracting more acquisition targets
↓
The flywheel starts spinningYesterday the AI sector finally caught a breather, with NVIDIA rising 2.4% in one day, closing at $216.
Anthropic publicly filed an S-1 on Monday, aiming to list on NASDAQ under the ticker ANT.
The filing shows revenue of $16.3 billion in the first half of the year, compared to only $1.16 billion in the same period last year, a 14-fold increase.
However, the net loss was $80.7 billion, of which $72.4 billion was non-cash accounting entries, not actual cash burned.
The entire semiconductor sector followed suit, with Micron up 3%, AMD up 2.8%, NASDAQ up 0.82%, and the S&P up 0.7%.
Honestly, one filing has reversed half of last week's panic; this market sentiment is running much faster than the fundamentals.
My view is straightforward: this is an emotional recovery, not a trend reversal. The semiconductor ETF is still about 25% below its peak.
It will only be considered strong again if it breaks above 217.75 (yesterday's high); if it falls below 212.61 (yesterday's low), this judgment is void. I'll be watching from the sidelines for now.
What do you think? Will Anthropic bring the AI rally back this week, or will the Fed's statement on Wednesday knock it back down? $NVDA $MU $AMD
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
$BTC $ETH Everyone is watching interest rates, oil prices, and decisions, but what often determines account profits and losses is the easily overlooked market structure: the crypto market has clearly entered an era of liquidity stratification.
Simply put, there are now two separate capital systems.
BTC and ETH belong to the macro institutional segment, supported by ETFs, spot base holdings, and long-term allocation funds. Even if market sentiment is weak, there is still support below, mostly resulting in a choppy bottoming process, making a collapse without resistance unlikely.
This is why many feel "there seems to be opportunity, but every trade loses." We are still using the mindset of past broad bull markets to deal with a capital environment that prefers quality and clusters for risk aversion.
First, abandon the simple idea of "staking on low-level altcoins." Currently, it is better to keep the strong and discard the weak, rather than betting on underdogs to make a comeback. Targets continuously abandoned by capital will become increasingly marginalized.
Second, concentrate your positions as much as possible. Instead of spreading bets across many low-volume small coins, focus on leaders with good liquidity and real support.
Third, reduce frequent coin switching and chasing rotations. At this stage, there are very few sustained trends; many so-called opportunities are just brief one-day pulses, and frequent participation only wears down accounts.
The market hasn't completely turned bad, but the profit logic has changed. Stop chasing illusions in weak targets, embrace the leaders, control your trading frequency, and patiently wait for macro and capital to resonate.
Brothers, how do you see the market moving forward? Let's discuss in the comments.4小时里44万美元的仓位被双向扫掉，这种针脚行情最会骗人。 你看到的是洗盘，还是波动阶段悄悄换了主角？ 这两天盯盘有个很直观的感受：BTC 掉到83000下方三次，每次都被快速捞回，现在在78000到82000之间来回磨，78000这道支撑还没破，但短线重心已经偏下，方向像被Fed按了暂停键。真正值得记的不是跌了多少，而是反弹的力度一次比一次软，说明追多的手在犹豫。 - BTC：三次探底三次收回，78000未失守，属于守得住但攻不动的状态，波动率在收敛，等的是宏观发令枪。 - BNB：700到770横了一个月，739是均线中枢，MACD动能归零，方向感模糊；但中长线仍站在200日线上方，抬升结构没坏。今晚纳斯达克敲钟的财库叙事是短期变量，故事能撑住溢价，也可能变成兑现窗口。 - ZEC：9月那波拉升后在高位1050到1370横盘，贴着50日线，RSI在48附近，多空都不占优。11月5日NU7升级是明确的时间锚，突破区间或等催化，二选一。 我更在意的是这三者之间的强弱排序。大盘走弱时它们没跟着塌，说明筹码被握着，不是被抛着；但握着不等于要拉，波动收缩到这个程度，往往是在把预期提前计价，真First, to pour some cold water, nearly doubling the minting volume does not mean SOL's benefits have doubled. According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Circle has minted a total of 112.01 billion USDC on Solana so far in 2026, across 448 transactions, an increase of about 99.1% compared to the full year 2025's 56.25 billion USD; among them, on October 26, two transactions each minted 250 million USD, totaling 500 million USD.
I think the easiest thing to misinterpret is "new purchasing power." First, cumulative minting does not equal net inflow; without looking at redemptions and outflows during the same period, we don't know how much capital actually remains, so it cannot be directly treated as an equivalent amount of funds ready to buy tokens. Second, the turnover of USD on-chain is a different matter from capital chasing SOL. If these USDC are mainly used for payments and settlements, then the scale of stablecoin usage can expand without necessarily bringing an equivalent intensity of token demand. This is my speculation and the minting figures cannot be taken as proof of it.
Of course, bulls may have a broader perspective than I do. If we later see USDC net circulation continuously increasing, with real trading activity and fee demand strengthening simultaneously, I will admit this is not just supply-side excitement and adjust my cautious judgment. I do not deny Solana's absorption capacity, but right now I want to focus more on what the money that stays is actually doing, rather than getting excited by the total minting volume."Buyback Threshold" of Derivatives DEX: Trading Volume Booming, Where Did the Buying Pressure Go?
In the derivatives DEX sector, trading volume is the face, but actual buybacks are the substance. No matter how good the mechanism is, if it is not executed promptly, it is just empty talk.
$DYDX: Although it promises to use 75% of net revenue for buybacks, constrained by shrinking market share and sluggish trading volume, the actual cash spent monthly has significantly decreased. The mechanism remains on paper but has lost sufficient self-sustaining capability, making buybacks merely a drop in the bucket.
$GMX: Appears to allocate 27% of fees for buybacks, but in reality, it feels more like a "blank check." Buyback tokens are tightly locked in the treasury and only released when the token price reaches $90. Using such an almost illusory long-term condition to cover up the current inability to support the price floor.
$HYPE: No gimmicks. Directly uses 97%-99% of core fees to buy back from the market and permanently burn tokens, with over 49.69 million tokens burned (approximately $4.05 billion). Daily mandatory buying pressure at the million-dollar level is the real price moat.
Summary:
The value of a mechanism lies in immediate execution. Buybacks with harsh preconditions are ineffective in a weak market; rules that cannot convert into real buying pressure are just self-indulgence by the project team. $HYPE
Kraken's parent company plans to move the US perpetual contracts onto the Hyperliquid chain. Do you see this as a positive development, or as a hole poked in decentralization?
I've thought about this, and it's not that simple. Hyperliquid itself announced on October 26: Bitnomial (a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse under Payward) will be the first regulated HIP-3 deployer, with NinjaTrader Clearing managing customer accounts, pending regulatory approval.
Matching happens on-chain, compliance at the door. To get through this door, you first need to be on the whitelist. This is a completely different approach from their usual permissionless model.
HYPE is currently at 78.6, up 2.7% in 24 hours; the market is rising first as a sign of respect. My view is that this is a grab for TradFi's landing channel, neutral to slightly positive, but don't expect US retail investors to rush in without barriers.
The real value is that the on-chain order book has been approved by regulators. I support this direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 一家SaaS公司宣布ARR达到10亿美元，不等于它今年确认了10亿美元收入，更不等于赚到了10亿美元利润——这个区别，恰恰是当下AI与云计算叙事里最容易被模糊的边界。当市场为云厂商的“年度经常性收入”欢呼时，真正该问的是：这笔钱是已经落袋的营收，还是把当前订阅规模按年折算出来的一个观察值？ ARR的本质是“把当前定期业务规模年化”，而非已实现收入或利润。举个直观例子：一家软件公司若有10万名付费客户、每人每年支付1000元，ARR约为1亿元。它衡量的是订阅业务的“体量刻度”，不是财报上的确认收入。这个定义差异，在AI驱动的云服务扩张周期里被放大了——市场情绪容易把ARR当成业绩本身，从而高估增长的确定性。 真正值得盯的是四个维度。❶增速：ARR同比涨了多少？定期业务是在加速还是减速？❷来源：增长来自新客户，还是老客户加购？前者考验获客效率，后者考验产品黏性，含金量完全不同。❸质量：续约率和流失率如何？定期业务能否持续？这决定了ARR是“一次性冲量”还是“可复利资产”。❹口径：不同公司对ARR的定义和计算方式可能不同，跨公司比较前必须确认具体算法，否则容易拿苹果比橘子。 这套框架放到加密Long-Term Holders Sold Into the ETF Bid
Long-term holder supply fell 50,017 BTC, about 13x the 3,700 BTC the ETFs bought.
The buying stopped Thursday. BTC ETFs lost $780.0M over two sessions, and spot sellers beat buyers by $208.7M over three.
Traders kept paying for leverage. Funding rose about a quarter on the week, into the top fifth of its 90-day range.#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings $BTC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
US Stock Market News Analysis: AI Faith Rebounds Overnight, but Smart Money Is Quietly Switching Tables
Overnight, the three major US stock indices all closed higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.70% to close at 7676.77 points, the Nasdaq rose 0.82%, and the Dow Jones rose 0.28%. On the surface, it looks like AI sentiment is warming up, but underneath it is a low-volume rebound with extreme structural divergence — the Goldman Sachs AI index surged 2.49%, while the S&P components excluding AI only rose 0.02%. All the gains are in AI, and no one cares about the losers.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led with a 2.82% increase, Nvidia rose 2.40%, Micron rose 2.98%, Lumentum surged over 8%, and SK Hynix rose over 4%.
CoreWeave dipped to $51 at the open but closed with a strong pullback, up 1.76%. Bulls and bears are fiercely battling over AI cloud service providers.
News:
The core catalyst is Anthropic officially submitting its S-1 prospectus, planning to list on Nasdaq under the ticker "ANT." Revenue in the first half of the year was $16.286 billion, with adjusted operating profit turning positive for the first time, but GAAP net loss was 80.7 billion — mainly due to changes in the fair value of convertible bonds, non-cash.
The market selectively focused only on the five words "first operating profit." On the same day, Meta launched up to $95 billion in equity financing, with Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom expressing intentions to subscribe up to $5 billion, partially answering the question of "who will pay for AI capital expenditures." $SOL
Among the seventh batch of key enterprises introduced by the Hong Kong Key Enterprises Office, there is a Nasdaq-listed company called Solana Company, which handles the SOL treasury and validator nodes, with about 2.2 million SOL on its books. It is the only blockchain infrastructure company invited in by them this year, and they also said the Asia-Pacific headquarters is set in Hong Kong.
The cards are good. But SOL is now fluctuating around 100.9, with a 24-hour low touching 99.83, still not standing up. Everyone saw the drop below 100 a couple of days ago, and I was puzzled—after so many positive factors, why is the price still lying down?
Looking at perpetual contracts, it's even clearer: open interest is $3.2 billion, the fee rate is 0.01%, lukewarm. Real money buying hasn't kept up.
What SOL lacks this round is not a story, but someone willing to put up three months' worth of money in one go. Stories can be hyped, but the money isn't there.
Of course, it's quite funny for me, an empty position holder, to be worrying about this here.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Anthropic just filed its IPO documents yesterday, and early this morning it secured a massive $63 billion financing round.
This time the investors are Bank of America, Citibank, Morgan Stanley, and Blackstone, with the funds earmarked for purchasing Broadcom's AI chips and networking equipment.
What's interesting is the financing structure.
Financial institutions purchase the equipment through special purpose vehicles, then lease the computing equipment to $ANTHROPIC, with Broadcom providing residual value guarantees for part of the debt.
This is quite worth studying 🧐
Previously, when discussing the AI arms race, everyone focused on who bought how many GPUs and built how many data centers.
Now even Wall Street banks, private credit institutions, and chip suppliers are deeply involved.
Of course, a large financing scale doesn't necessarily mean the project will be profitable; future equipment utilization, depreciation rates, and leasing cash flows all need to be tested.
I think the AI competition has entered a new phase:
Besides model capabilities, who can secure computing power long-term at a lower cost is becoming another tough battle.
@OKX星球 I have a long position in $BTC with an average price of $83,030. I won't add to the position in the short term; I'm waiting for the right level. Currently, the market is oscillating between $80,133 and $80,849.
A) If the 4H candle closes below $79,775 → below is the ascending trendline at $79,452, which is still rising. In the past 48 hours, there was $3.22 million liquidated near $80,133. Breaking above $80,849 would invalidate this.
B) If the 4H candle closes above $80,849 → first target is $81,000. Breaking below $79,775 would invalidate this.
The $80,133 level has been tested 8 times: held 4 times, broken 2 times, and no reaction 2 times.
Open interest in 24 hours is +4.6%, price +0.85%, indicating new money is entering longs.
If opening a new position, take profit on half first and move stop loss to breakeven.
Which side do you lean towards? #OKXTraderVoices $DOOD These shorts are simply paying interest to the longs.
A nearly 0.7% fee loss over 4 hours, yet the open interest still surged by almost half.
The price just won't break down, and the shorts are stubbornly holding on. The big holders are firmly holding their long positions, completely waiting for the shorts to max out their leverage themselves.
This market setup is clearly a classic short squeeze formation; it's just a matter of when the whales will lift the price and explode it.
#DOOD
$DOOD
👇Good morning brothers! Last night BTC fell below 80,000, and the group chat was full of people crying and panicking. I guess many were scared into hitting the sell button. Early this morning, after checking ETF fund flows, I found it interesting that the Wall Street big shots collectively played a disappearing act in this scenario!
$BTC ETF funds were actually zero yesterday, you read that right—zero inflow and outflow. A few days ago, BlackRock and Fidelity were still aggressively dumping (on the 23rd, 16.94 million ran out), but now at the 80,000 mark, these big players are holding steady, indicating institutions are also waiting and watching, neither bulls nor bears daring to shoot first, all waiting for direction.
Looking at $ETH, it was the only one with inflows. While everyone else was hesitant, Fidelity quietly bought 69.14 million worth, forcibly turning the total pot into a net inflow. A couple of days ago, they were dumping, but now at the 2,300 level, institutions clearly think "the price has dropped enough to be worth it," starting to build positions on the left side. This might be the most positive signal in today's market.
Finally, $SOL looks a bit grim, still seeing outflows. Yesterday's net outflow was 80,900, with Bitwise and Grayscale both exiting. Compared to $ETH's institutional bottom-fishing, $SOL's funding situation remains under pressure, and the selling pressure in the spot market hasn't fully ended.
In summary: big money is extremely picky right now. BTC is stagnant, $SOL is being abandoned, and only $ETH got a sweet treat. Stop guessing blindly by staring at candlesticks; where the money goes is where we should look. Until BTC makes a move, I still insist on staying out and watching the show.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC
In the last bull market, there were a total of 6 major corrections
Each correction ranged between
20%-30%
The last bear market corrected by
77%
This bear market corrected by
53%
Each cycle of bear and bull market fluctuations is getting smaller. With smaller fluctuations, larger leverage is required to achieve previous returns, which is why normal fluctuations now cause long liquidations equal to previous major downturns
According to the pattern of decreasing volatility, the correction range for this bull market is
10%-15%
We are now already at the tail end of this correction BTC just dropped below 80,000, and at the end of the month, over ten billion dollars in options will expire. Looks like this week won't be quiet.
First, looking at the price, BTC briefly fell to 79,321 USD today, then pulled back above 80,000.
The 80,000 level has been contested repeatedly recently, with no one really gaining an advantage.
But I checked the options data for the end of the month and found something else worth noting.
On October 30th, about 11.1 billion USD worth of BTC options will expire, nearly 35% of the open interest in the related options market.
More interestingly, a large number of call options are concentrated around the 95,000 USD strike price, while some statistics show the maximum pain point is near 78,000 USD.
Many people see the maximum pain point at 78,000 and think BTC will definitely be pushed down there.
The maximum pain point is just a theoretical settlement price calculated based on current options positions; it’s not a script pre-written by the main players. Options expiration doesn’t mean 11.1 billion USD will be dumped on the market.
What’s really worth paying attention to is that as expiration approaches, market makers adjusting hedge positions may cause volatility to become more sensitive around certain price levels.
Don’t forget, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is also this week.
One is a macro expectation, the other is concentrated options expiration; with these two events coinciding, the market may not follow technical chart patterns. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #The October FOMC Rate Decision Will Be Announced This Week
$BTC $XAU The focus this week is the October FOMC. The market has basically priced in no change in rates; the core of the game is how Powell responds to energy inflation and "how long high rates will be maintained."
The Middle East conflict has pushed up oil prices, leaving inflation stickiness unresolved. This is also the root cause why gold and BTC find it difficult to mount a smooth rebound. Geopolitics no longer directly benefit safe-haven assets but suppress risk appetite through crude oil and U.S. Treasury yields.
The decision can be viewed in three stages:
There can be sudden spikes or false breakouts at the moment of the decision, so don’t rush to chase trades; the real tone will be set at the press conference; after sentiment digests, verify whether funds and the market resonate.
Two key levels for BTC:
Support at 80,000 — holding this means consolidation and bottoming; if it breaks down effectively, sentiment will quickly weaken. Resistance lies between 82,000–84,000; only by holding above this, combined with ETF and Treasury yield cooperation, can the recovery have sustainability. For gold, focus on defending the 3,900–3,970 range.
Three simple scenarios to remember:
If the tone is hawkish, the market continues to consolidate, and the rebound is a deleveraging window; if signals of easing inflation are released and yields fall, there is a chance for recovery; if energy inflation risks are emphasized, risk assets will come under pressure again, prioritizing capital preservation.
In terms of operations, reduce exposure, lower leverage, and cut altcoin holdings before the decision. Take profits in batches at resistance levels; no need to preemptively bet when out of position, wait for the decision to land, confirm signals, then buy in batches…#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Robinhood's trading business growth is highly likely to continue, but it will shift from "single-engine rapid growth" to "multi-product portfolio growth" (options + stock shares + prediction markets). The company is actively reducing its reliance on pure trading cycles and transforming into a more comprehensive financial services platform.
The biggest variables are: 1) market volatility and retail investor sentiment; 2) regulatory direction of prediction markets. If these two factors align, growth remains considerable; if regulation tightens significantly or the market enters a low volatility period, trading growth will slow noticeably, but the overall company still has buffers like net interest income and subscriptions.Retail investor deposits doubled to 10.7 billion, but the whales quietly stopped! Who is catching the FOMC's flying knife?
According to CryptoQuant data, Binance retail investor deposits doubled from 5.5 billion in April to 10.75 billion, hitting a six-month high; meanwhile, the BTC volume transferred into Binance by whales dropped from 5.9 billion at the end of August to 3.8 billion, a 36% decrease.
Retail investors are desperately moving money to exchanges to bottom-fish, while whales are quietly pulling back. At the same time, Strategy paused BTC purchases for the first time in five weeks, and the spot ETF saw an outflow of 772 million USD over two days. The two most stable marginal buyers have both stopped.
My ETH long position is down -985%, ZEC short -425%, CL short -282%, barely surviving with 1.21U. I'm not holding the position; I'm using this 1.21U to vote for the FOMC—betting that Powell's (Warsh's) words tomorrow night will be tougher than the whales' money.
Do you think retail investors are catching the flying knife this time, or are the whales shaking out the market?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The first thing after the US stock market closed, the moods of the two orders were completely different.
$TSLA is right on the line. Loss of 106.59 (−21.43%), mark at 394.19, forced liquidation at 416.23665, with 22.05 in between. The margin ratio rose from 58.61% yesterday to 61.91%, the higher this number, the more dangerous. Last night I only wrote the distance, not the action. After today's opening, this order must have a resolution: close it, I accept this 106 loss; keep it, then I have to clarify the new account for holding it and give an answer within today.
$UNI has been retreating for the fourth day: +83.92% → +75.62% → +54.60% → +38.38%, the amount dropped from 71.92 to 37.94. Yesterday I said I would write a calculable line for it, now I write: the mark returned to 7.35, the remaining half position is fully closed. Less than two points from the current price, this line is tight, and the tightness is intentional—after four consecutive days of retreat, I will no longer give it any leniency.
$DOGE is motionless: +141.02 (+14.53%), mark at 0.0778092, almost the same as yesterday, ignore it.
Three orders: one is the most worry-free, one is retreating, and one is right on the line.
A few words: the biggest fear for a short position is not losing, but giving back a little bit of profit while still thinking you did nothing wrong.
No new positions today, first handle these two clearly.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Google already conducted some financing during the Q2 report and hinted that capital expenditures will "significantly" increase next year, so the shock of "sudden big spending + sudden fundraising" may have already been priced in. Additionally, Brin and Page moved out of California before the January 1, 2026 deadline, so they might not be forced to sell shares to pay California taxes. This allows the market to focus on Google Cloud growth driven by Anthropic. What Meta spent last week: first negative free cash flow since 2012, heavy AI spending, and hints that it will get even heavier. They set up new Class C common stock with no voting rights, effectively a 1-for-2 split, planned to start trading in January 2027. This is to raise external financing for AI development without diluting Zuckerberg's voting control. The market is still worried: under California's Prop 40 billionaire tax, Zuckerberg might be forced to sell shares to pay taxes. Why is Google different? Page bought two properties totaling about $173.4 million in Miami this year; Brin moved to the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe and also bought a house in Miami. Analysts believe investors don't need to worry about "founders selling off to pay taxes" like with Meta. Luria also expects Google to discuss how to regain AI leadership: currently, it ranks second or third in various tracks—chat lags behind ChatGPT, enterprise market lags behind Anthropic and OpenAI, and personal assistants even lag behind Me.$ETH 现报2,327.15 USDT，24小时在2,291.72至2,343.96之间窄幅震荡。1小时MACD在零轴下方金叉、红柱微扩，价格暂守布林带中轨（2,320）上方，但SUPERTREND阻力2,359.78仍压制反弹空间。技术面是典型的“弱修复”，真正决定方向的变量在宏观。 美联储是当前最大的压制源。 10月FOMC按兵不动的概率高达90.6%，但12月加息25bp的概率仍有68.6%。高盛认为本轮加息可能在12月结束，但市场定价明显更鹰——峰值利率隐含约四次加息，远超高盛基准的两次。对ETH这类高久期风险资产而言，只要12月加息的靴子没落地，估值端就持续承压。 但资金面出现了值得细看的背离。 10月至今ETH现货ETF累计净流出已达10.8亿美元，创年内最大单月流出，9月流入几乎全部回吐。然而同一窗口内，链上巨鲸在72小时内增持超16.6万枚ETH（约4.15亿美元），部分地址将ETH从交易所提出转入冷存储，持有意图明确。ETF在卖，巨鲸在买，两者交易场所和持有期限不在同一维度，但至少说明下跌过程中存在真实承接盘，而非单边溃败。 基本面： ETH的“储备资产”属性仍在强$BTC at 2 AM the day after tomorrow (Beijing/Taipei time), the Federal Reserve will announce the October interest rate decision.
I reviewed the last 14 rate decisions on the OKX hourly chart:
⏱ 2 hours after the decision, the average volatility is 2.0%, which is 2.2 times the usual 0.9% for the same period
📏 24 hours after the decision, the average volatility is 4.2%, usually 3.3%
🎲 Direction: 7 times up, 7 times down
Based on the current price of about 80,200, 4.2% means roughly a $3,400 range; last Saturday's low was 79,220, only about $1,000 away from the current price.
Guessing the direction is gambling; leaving room for volatility in advance is the real skill.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX BTC-USDT 1-hour chart, 14 rate decisions from 2025/1 to 2026/9 #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ To put it simply, SK Hynix's Q3 profit hitting a new high is basically a sure bet. The market expects revenue of about 98.2 trillion KRW and operating profit around 77 trillion KRW, with a profit margin close to 78%, significantly higher than Q2's 60.54 trillion. DRAM and NAND prices are rising, HBM is in short supply, making profits easy.
But the real market concern isn't "how much will be earned this time," but "whether such earnings can continue next year." The stock price has pulled back about 52% from the June high, and the P/E ratio is compressed to around 3 times, indicating that investors are doubting sustainability.
The biggest crack is in HBM4: mass production has started, but shipments haven't met initial expectations, and Nvidia's Rubin platform has been delayed; meanwhile, Samsung's HBM revenue has surpassed SK Hynix's, with SK's share sliding from 58% to 50%. Therefore, the earnings call is more important than the profit figures, focusing on three things: HBM4 shipment pace and Q4 pricing, whether long-term contract orders have increased, and whether shareholder returns will be further enhanced (40 trillion KRW has already been repurchased, with possible additional buybacks).
In short: the new profit high is very likely to be realized, but the trading value of this earnings report lies not in the 77 trillion figure, but in management's guidance on HBM4 ramp-up, long-term contract locking, and shareholder returns. The numbers are the rearview mirror; the guidance is the steering wheel.ASTS is taking on a tough challenge!
What attracts me to ASTS is the direct connection of ordinary phones to satellites. In remote areas, at sea, and other places with weak ground networks, there is a very real need for connectivity.
With partners like AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone, it has channels to enter the existing mobile user market. Next, the most anticipated developments are the continuous launch of satellites, longer coverage times, and increased real paid revenue.
The company's current goal is to provide initial intermittent coverage in five markets by the end of 2026. How far the service can go afterward depends on more satellite deployments, network integration, and licensing progress.
This year, ASTS has undergone a brutal adjustment; from its peak until now, the stock price has dropped to one-third. So the risks must also be considered: the biggest competitive pressure comes from Starlink's entry, with Musk's ambitions exerting crushing pressure on ASTS's market share. Additionally, launch delays and ongoing financing causing share dilution pose certain risks. If progress falls significantly short of expectations, a downside scenario of $20–30 must also be considered.
By the end of 2027, the first target is $50–60; if launches go smoothly and paid services scale faster, then $60–80.
The direction of direct phone connection is indeed promising, but the key going forward is how much ASTS can turn cooperation and technological progress into sustained revenue. The range in the chart is a personal estimate and will be adjusted with actual progress.
$ASTS SolvBTC.CORE enters Saudi Arabia? Unveiling the real players behind Islamic finance compliance
There are market rumors that SolvBTC.CORE is entering Saudi Arabia, with many interpretations directly assuming Saudi capital is entering CORE. Let's break down the real players behind this. This product is jointly launched by Solv Protocol + Nawa Finance, deployed on the Core blockchain, and the product name is SolvBTC.CORE. The Islamic finance compliance certificate is issued by the Malaysian institution Amanie Advisors, which has an office in Dubai and is not a Saudi local regulatory or official body. The product design follows Islamic finance rules, removing the traditional lending interest model, adapting to the funding needs of Muslims in the Gulf region, with target markets including Saudi Arabia and the UAE. 1. Solv Protocol: Developer of the underlying BTCFi protocol 2. Nawa Finance: Core ecosystem project responsible for Middle East market operations 3. Core Ventures: Provides only ecosystem-level support, no direct capital investment 4. Amanie Advisors: Third-party religious compliance audit service provider, not a Saudi government department. Important clarification: The product is open for use by Saudi users, which does not mean the Saudi sovereign fund PIF invests in CORE tokens, nor does it mean the Core blockchain has obtained a Saudi regulatory license. It only means the product has obtained third-party Islamic compliance certification, gaining the admission condition to sell to Gulf users. Boss, it seems I haven't seen your view on aave. I want to go all in on this -- the three dragons on-chain: $HYPE contract leader, $UNI spot leader, $AAVE lending leader. These correspond to three huge financial application scenarios. AAVE is in the lending business, earning interest spreads/service fees. Lending is a very traditional business, just on-chain now. You could say it earns hard-earned money, doing the dirty and tiring work, but the risk is extremely high, risking dealing with white powder while earning money from selling cabbages. I have done lending business myself and designed lending products. Crypto loans and mining machine loans started in 2019; I have done this at Anyin. Now we still provide electricity fee loans to miners, which is essentially crypto loans. Lending essentially expands scale under controllable risk management to bring profit. Simply put, you need to pile up the scale of funds, but once the scale grows large, risk rises exponentially, easy to earn small profits but suffer huge losses. Fortunately, we have faith in BTC and are not afraid of coins crashing in hand, so this business can still be done. Traditional finance has bad debt risk, usually when liabilities exceed assets. In AAVE, this is reflected in liquidation shortfalls, and this risk always exists. Besides the business risk of lending itself, there is also operational risk on-chain, such as the $300 million theft incident this year. How to cover this hole remains a problem. Therefore, lending is not a particularly sexy thing. Among the three, AAVE also has the lowest market cap, just over 2 billion. However, AAVE also has new opportunities, such as US stocks on-chain. These high-quality assets will increase pledged inventory but will not change the business model.#AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？
Amazon disclosed its Q3 earnings on October 29, with the biggest highlight coming from Jassy's latest statement: AWS compute capacity is sold out for 2026, most of the capacity for 2027 is already booked, and a large number of orders are locked in through 2028, confirming the explosive demand for AI compute power. AWS revenue growth logic remains solid, with institutions forecasting AWS's Q3 growth rate to potentially rise to 41%.
However, the contradiction lies in the company's full-year capital expenditure reaching as high as $220 billion, with large-scale data center construction already causing free cash flow to turn negative. The market's core focus is whether AWS's operating margin can maintain resilience under high investment and management's guidance on next year's capital expenditure. AWS's long-term orders provide a revenue safety cushion, while short-term pressure concentrates on profit and cash flow consumption caused by capital investment.The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting this week does not have a direct impact on Bitcoin; the real focus is on how the post-meeting statement sets the tone for December. According to CME FedWatch data as of yesterday, the market prices in about a 91% probability of no change in October, but the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December has climbed above 68%, with some estimates nearing 80%. Therefore, this is not pricing in the end of tightening, but rather a pause now with a possible hike again in December. The Fed is more likely to take a hawkish pause this time, buying time for an observation window while keeping the option to tighten further in December, allowing flexibility. The main point is that inflation data does not provide a reason to ease; the University of Michigan's October survey shows long-term inflation expectations at 3.5%, higher than comparable readings in 2019 and 2024, while the one-year expectation is 4.7%, also not low. The survey lists 2025 tariffs and 2026 energy shocks as core drivers of inflation. Before the Fed meeting, the statistical basis supporting inflation judgments is incomplete, and no one dares to trade on inflation falling as a fact. Therefore, the interest rate environment Bitcoin faces remains tight. Prices have already reflected this in advance; recently, Bitcoin repeatedly fell below $80,000 and even seems unable to hold that level. ETF funds are also wavering, with a net outflow of about $773 million on October 22 and 23 combined, barely maintaining a net inflow for the week thanks to inflows in the early days. $BTC At this point, the actions of treasury companies are also worth watching. Strategy last week temporarilyHynix's earnings report is out today, and the three storage coins are actually talking about three different things
$SNDK 1237, SanDisk makes NAND flash 💾
AI servers require large flash storage, driving demand for NAND and enterprise SSDs. SanDisk's products focus on this area, and 1237 follows the sector sentiment. After Hynix's earnings report, the storage market outlook will become clear. NAND and HBM are two different segments, so don't mix them up.
$xMU 890, Micron makes DRAM and HBM 🧠
Micron's main business is memory, and HBM high-bandwidth memory is targeting AI server customers. 890 is directly tied to the spot cycle, with price fluctuations following memory prices. After Hynix's HBM4 orders and inventory are released, Micron's position should be compared accordingly.
$SLX 0.052, the rental income logic is opposite to spot 🏭
Solstice splits long-term wafer fab usage rights into on-chain shares and collects rent quarterly. The rent is contractually fixed and does not fluctuate daily with chip spot prices. When the earnings report causes sector volatility today, it bounces a bit, but buyers are aiming for long-term rental income.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ I finished reviewing Strategy's 8-K from yesterday; last week it didn't buy a single Bitcoin.
But the money wasn't idle. It used over 200 million USD from its cash on hand to buy back its own STRC preferred shares, roughly at 99 USD per share. After this spending, the freely available cash left is 240 million, while the large remaining sum is specifically reserved for paying dividends and interest, not for other uses.
At first, I thought it stopped buying because it was bearish. Then I checked Strive's announcement from the same day; they added over six thousand coins at an average price of 83,000 USD roughly the same week, and they still hold 500,000 shares of Strategy's STRC, which at the reported fair value also comes to a bit over 99 USD per share.
Here's what I concluded: no common shares were sold this week, no new money came in, Strategy first used idle cash to keep STRC around 99, and buying coins will have to wait for the next financing round. At this morning's price just over 80,000, their coin holdings still show an unrealized gain of about 4 billion USD, so there's no rush.
Next Monday they will issue another announcement as usual; if they still haven't bought a single coin and continue repurchasing STRC, this judgment stands; if they start buying directly, I'll come back and admit I was wrong. #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 This news, in my view, aligns with the trend of stablecoin applications and leans towards positive sentiment, but it is not yet regulatory approval. The French Ministry of Finance, AMF, the Bank of France, and ACPR, in their MiCA revision opinions, advocate conditionally allowing platforms and other third parties to reward stablecoin holders, opposing the extension of the interest ban to staking and lending.
I follow three rules for trends: watch the direction, don't guess turning points — regulatory bodies proposing open space helps ease policy anxiety in the stablecoin sector; watch the boundaries, not just the headlines — conditional allowance does not equal full liberalization, and it cannot be directly inferred that reward services will become widespread; watch for confirmation, don't rush expectations — currently, these are just revision opinions, and I focus more on whether subsequent rules can connect, rather than how much buzz the news generates.
Trends are the best friend; I will continue to monitor the revision texts and reward boundaries, and not take a single opinion as trend confirmation.