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#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ I lean towards "Q3 numbers are not a big issue, but the focus is on HBM4 guidance rather than betting on exceeding expectations." AI server demand + memory upgrade is the main theme, with tight HBM3E supply and HBM4 mass production progress supporting ASP/profit structure; however, capital expenditure, exchange rates, and equipment delivery times will pressure short-term margins, and the market is already fairly priced (related Outcome “Yes” about 83¢, odds are average).
Positioning: Currently holding a small position in SKHY/SKHYNIX for observation/not heavily invested, will consider adding after the 10/28 guidance confirmation, not chasing highs; only if management clearly confirms HBM4 customer validation and volume ramp-up pace would it be considered solid "exceeding expectations." Not investment advice. Stayed up last night waiting for a rebound, and today I see BTC couldn't even hold 80,000. 79,811, ETH 2,315, SOL 100.2. The most annoying thing is this kind of situation: it rallies and makes you feel like you shouldn't sell, then it pulls back and makes you feel like it's almost bottomed out. After grinding all night, my position is still taking hits in place.
For now, I want to wait for BTC to rebound a bit before shorting. The 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80,041; it bounced to around 80,300 this morning then turned down, with the high much lower than last night. Shorting at 79,800 feels late to me, and 79,650 and 79,450 are too close together, making it tough to catch a good entry. I want to wait for a return to 80,000–80,100 to see if it can bounce; if it can't, I'll try a small position. If it really pulls back to 80,350, I'll exit—don't want to fight another short trade. If it drops to 79,650, I want to take some off; I’m not daring to bet on breaking 79,450 yet.
I'll leave ETH alone for now; the 20 moving average at 2,321 hasn't been reclaimed, and 2,315 is stuck in limbo. Going long feels weak, and opening shorts quickly hits 2,300. Don't think SOL is cheap just because 100 is a round number; 100.57 is still pressing down on it. The latest DeFi Development announcement said SOL and equivalents increased holdings by 5,346 coins, totaling about 2.596 million coins, yet the price keeps grinding down. Damn, institutions have their patience, but I just want to do short-term trades. I'll wait for BTC to give some rebound; if it really hits 80,000, I guess I'll be staring at that bullish candle again, hesitating whether it will pull back.I'm doing something pretty dumb right now, manually scanning info on many coins every day and then recording it. Yesterday I scanned over 100, flagged 6-7 anomalies, and started tracking 2 of them.
One is $POLYX from yesterday. When I noticed the anomaly, the price was 32, then it rose to 38, and now it has fallen back to 32. The price fluctuations and trading volume aren't that big, so I'll keep observing.
The other is $q. I checked the flags I made: the contract trading volume was abnormal, spot trading volume halved, and looking at net inflow data, there was a large outflow from spot a few days ago which stopped yesterday, while contracts have been seeing large inflows continuously. Of course, I haven't had time to look closely yet, but today it has nearly quadrupled.
The point of manually checking these things is to personally feel every piece of data, so I can organize these changes and then incorporate them into the system logic.International crude oil like $BZ is currently somewhat declining, but Ajian does not believe the supply risk has eased. Although Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have engaged with Iran, hoping diplomatic channels can reduce the risk of supply disruption, Saudi Arabia still faces attack risks, and the shipping security issues around the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. If diplomatic contacts do not translate into actionable easing measures, oil prices cannot continue to fall, and inflation expectations will still create obstacles for central bank easing. Subsequently, interest rate expectations, the US dollar, and the valuations of crypto assets will all be affected accordingly #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC 跌到79,993，$ETH 滑至2,309，盘面流动性近乎枯竭——但就在这个节点，多年来把比特币称为“骗局”的Jamie Dimon，其掌舵的JPMorgan却给出了未来十年年化10%的收益预测。这个反差本身就是本周最值得咀嚼的信号：当最坚定的怀疑者开始用传统资产定价框架丈量BTC，叙事的天平已经悄悄倾斜。 市场当下的反应却近乎冷漠。FOMC会议与中期选举两道宏观关卡横在眼前，长期利好撑不起短期价格，这是典型的“认知已变、资金未到”状态。流动性干涸意味着任何方向的波动都会被放大，但也意味着一旦新增资金入场，价格发现会来得比想象中更快。 10%这个数字被部分观点认为“过于保守”，但恰恰是这份保守暴露了真正的变化。它不是加密原生机构的乐观喊单，而是传统金融体系内部收益率模型的产物——换句话说，华尔街正在把$BTC正式纳入主流资产配置的坐标系，而不是继续把它当作边缘投机品。这个动作的意义不在于预测准不准，而在于定价语言换了。 历史反复证明，绝对利益面前没有永恒的敌人。Dimon的个人立场从未软化，但JPMorgan的预测模型已经先行一步。这种“人嘴硬、模型诚实”的分裂，往往出现在机The current drop is actually an opportunity. The macro environment is still dominated by bearish sentiment. The only real negative factor so far is the interest rate hike. Whether there will be more hikes later and how the midterm elections will go are still uncertain and haven't materialized yet, but when they do, the price will definitely reflect it.
You can refer to MicroStrategy's cost at about $75446 and Strive's at about $87785. Just buy some Bitcoin spot at your own pace, including the stage positions of mainstream altcoins like Aave and Solana.#The October FOMC rate decision will be announced this week. According to CME FedWatch pricing, the market unanimously expects the rate to remain unchanged this time. This meeting is not a quarterly meeting, so the dot plot will not be updated. The market focus is not on whether to raise rates, but on the wording of the post-meeting statement and Powell's press conference remarks to judge the December policy options.
⚠️ Three core variables
1. Inflation resilience risk
Oil prices have risen due to geopolitical factors, putting upward pressure on inflation. If the Fed takes a hawkish stance and keeps the possibility of a December rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are likely to strengthen, putting pressure on risk assets.
2. Strong economic and employment data
U.S. economic and employment data remain resilient, giving the Fed confidence to maintain high rates. If a signal is sent that "high rates need to be maintained longer," long-duration growth stocks and crypto assets will continue to face pressure.
3. Divergent views within the committee
Internal officials have divided opinions; some worry about inflation rebounding, while others fear high rates will harm the economy. Ambiguous statements may cause market volatility between bullish and bearish sentiments.
📊 Impact logic on the crypto market
• ✅ Dovish bias: Emphasizing inflation improvement, adopting a wait-and-see attitude → Dollar weakens, BTC, ETH have rebound opportunities
• 🦅 Hawkish bias: Indicating further rate hike potential and prolonged high rates → Dollar index strengthens, risk assets face pressure and correction $BTC $ETH $SNDK Tesla surged 5.21% yesterday (October 26), closing at $391.62, hitting a nearly three-month high, with a single-day market cap increase of about $85 billion. The core driver was Barclays' significant rating upgrade, combined with Q3 earnings resilience, improved Robotaxi operational data, strong energy storage orders, and the multiple resonances of the anticipated SpaceX merger.
🚀 Core catalyst: Barclays flips to bullish, sharply raises target price
The most direct trigger was Barclays upgrading Tesla's rating from "Neutral" to "Overweight," raising the target price sharply from $370 to $450, implying about 21% upside. Barclays cited four main reasons forming the fundamental framework for the day's buying:
· The core automotive business is expected to end two consecutive years of decline and return to growth.
· Robotaxi (autonomous taxi) business shows signs of a turning point, with recent significant increases in mileage.
· Energy storage orders for 2027 are nearly sold out, with very high demand visibility.
· A potential merger with SpaceX could bring an acquisition premium to Tesla shareholders.
📊 Earnings foundation: Q3 EPS beats expectations, multiple operational metrics hit records
Daiwa Securities' research report provided another support for the day's rise: Tesla's Q3 Non-GAAP EPS was $0.48, above the market expectation of $0.45. More importantly, Daiwa listed operational data indicating comprehensive improvement:
· Automotive backlog reached a four-year high.
· North American new car FSD (supervised) attach rate reached 75%.
· Austin Cybercab's unsupervised driving mileage increased eightfold.
· Energy storage business orders and backlog both hit all-time highs.
These data show the market that Tesla's fundamentals are not just a "long-term story," but short-term operational indicators are also improving simultaneously.
🤝 SpaceX merger expectations: from "speculation" to "substantive evaluation"
Barclays specifically mentioned in the report that Musk confirmed during the earnings call that both Tesla and SpaceX have established special committees to formally evaluate the possibility of a merger. Barclays believes the market already has strong expectations for this, and the deal should include a premium on Tesla stock, speculating that both parties may announce related progress before the December 3 annual shareholder meeting. This expectation provides an additional "option value" to Tesla's valuation.
🌊 Sector resonance: tech and chip stocks broadly rebound
Tesla's surge was not an isolated event. On the same day, U.S. tech stocks broadly rebounded, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 2.82%, ARM up 6.19%, and Intel up 4.04%. The AI narrative was restored following Anthropic's IPO filing, risk appetite improved, providing a favorable liquidity environment for high-beta names like Tesla.
In summary, Tesla's $TSLA surge yesterday was the result of the triple resonance of Barclays' rating upgrade providing a "fundamental anchor," Q3 operational data improvement providing "earnings validation," and SpaceX merger expectations providing a "valuation premium." The market is buying not just current car sales, but the simultaneous realization of the combined narrative of "automotive business bottoming + Robotaxi volume growth + high energy storage prosperity + merger option."$ETH 🚨 Counterintuitive Alert: ETH dropped to 2315, but the funding rate soared to 0.01%! Are retail investors frantically bottom-fishing?
📊 Practical Review:
Looking at the chart: The proportion of long accounts is as high as 71.64% (long-short ratio 2.53), but the active sell volume (110,400 ETH) exceeds the buy volume (97,300 ETH).
Sell orders pile thick above 2317 in the order book (9.45M), while buy orders support the bottom at 2300 (4.53M).
The large cycle daily MACD stubbornly stays below zero (-11.33), and the 4H Bollinger Bands cling to the lower band (2292).
💡 Core Logic:
Funding rate surge + OI hitting a new high (637,800 ETH) + extreme retail bullishness = a typical “long liquidity trap.”
Asian session shows low volume oscillation; the main force is using retail bottom-fishing sentiment to unload positions.
⏰ Trader’s Perspective:
It’s now the 04:00-08:00 “dead water slight ripple” period.
Don’t get stopped out by fake moves; save your energy for the 16:00 European session open.
👇 What’s your take on ETH’s outlook? Has the bottom arrived or is it a long trap? #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 $BTC lost the 80,000 mark again at 9 AM, with Binance 1h dropping from 80,071 down to 79,756, hitting a low of 79,648 at 10 AM, and now hovering around 79,810. The surge to 80,844 last night has basically been retraced.
According to Coinglass data, the total liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours reached $175 million, with long positions at $106 million and short positions at $68.83 million. BTC longs accounted for $30.04 million, ETH longs $23.32 million, indicating bulls are still buying.
Despite the price dropping, positions have actually increased: Binance BTC contract open interest rose from 94,600 to 96,700 in 24h, funding rate returned to 0.01%, and the long-short account ratio is 2.35.
$ETH is at 2,313, contract open interest increased from 2.338 million to 2.365 million, long-short account ratio is 3.36, with retail investors overwhelmingly long.
My view is that the whales tracked on Hyperliquid are actually 72% bearish, with retail and large investors on opposite sides. Under this structure, I am more worried that the batch of longs below 79.3k will be liquidated first. First, there is a 90% probability of no rate hike, which is already priced in, so no rate hike is not considered a positive surprise. Second, the key is my stance on December. Currently, CME shows a 69% chance of a rate hike in December; if they just hint "December is not ruled out," Bitcoin will immediately drop to a lower level. Third, Brent crude oil is still above 110, the 10-year US Treasury yield is above 5%, inflation cannot be suppressed at all, and Powell has no reason to be dovish. I think the most likely scenario is: no rate hike but hawkish stance, Bitcoin will first drop sharply then rebound. Don't bet on the direction prematurely; wait until the decision is finalized before making moves. Reduce positions to the minimum before Wednesday. #OctoberFOMCRateDecisionToBeAnnouncedThisWeek #SKHynixQ3EarningsComingUpCanHBM4BoostProfitability? #MiddleEastOilTransportResumesWhyAreOilPricesStillHigh? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #富兰克林邓普顿推出美股股息买BTC新型ETF
"Franklin Templeton Uses US Stock Dividends to Buy Bitcoin"
Franklin Templeton has recently reached into the high dividend US stock sector, submitting an application to launch a new type of combined fund.
The underlying assets are all US blue-chip high dividend stocks, and the cash dividends generated will no longer be returned in the original form but will be automatically used to buy Bitcoin spot periodically. The principal remains in traditional blue-chip stocks for risk hedging, only using the dividends for dollar-cost averaging, which not only increases management fees but also locks in long-term buying for their own crypto fund.
The first regulatory response window is set for mid-next month. Once approved, by the end of Q4, this batch of pension funds will begin mechanical accumulation. $BTC 💻I treat this as a code review: Glassnode states that recent $BTC buyers have exited the strong sell-off zone, with the proportion of short-term holders in profit dropping from nearly 100% in late September to about 70%.
I think there's a bug in using this to infer "better entry": a narrower profit coverage doesn't equal reduced selling willingness; losing positions might also cut losses.
If I were to revise the logic, I would add a check on the actual selling behavior of losing positions. Everyone, please help review: does this fix the loophole, or should we change the judgment criteria?Robinhood is making money, but the three on-chain exchanges are reacting differently
$HYPE 76.7, on-chain order book exchange 📊
Hyperliquid runs its order book on a self-developed L1, with protocol fees flowing back to token holders. This week, news came out that Robinhood Chain's revenue surpassed Ethereum's, making the on-chain sector lively, but HYPE fell from 80 to 76.7 without following the rise, indicating funds did not choose it. 75 is the next level to watch; do not leverage before the decision.
$ENA 0.21, the yield protocol rose 8 points the day before yesterday 🚀
USDe collateralized short-term US Treasury yield, which rose 8 points the day before yesterday ahead of the rate cut expectation. It has been sideways these past two days without continuing to surge; high chasing funds have stopped. If tomorrow's decision is dovish, it can bounce; if hawkish, those 8 points could be given back. Do not chase.
$ASTER 0.701, multi-chain contract DEX still idle 🛰️
Perpetual contracts are deployed on several chains, but trading volume is only a few hundred thousand USD. Robinhood makes money because it has ready users; this kind of new chain DEX needs events to attract people.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Conclusion first: Today, Hong Kong stock Zhipu surged over 12% intraday, currently at HKD 553 (+9.4%). The trigger was Anthropic submitting its IPO prospectus to the SEC the night before, with revenue of 16.286 billion USD in the first half.
There are three key numbers to watch for $ZHIPU perpetual contracts:
1) The rise is in the underlying stock, not leverage. Perpetual moved from 62.84 to 71.43, with funding fees settled twice today at 0; the last non-zero was 0.103% on 10-26. Southbound net buying was HKD 2.17 billion over two days. The real action is in the underlying stock; leveraged positions haven't entered yet.
2) Premium equals cost. Perpetual at 71.43, index at 70.73, premium +0.98%; the underlying stock is at 70.5 USD, so you pay 1.3% more. Hong Kong stocks close at 16:00, but perpetual contracts trade 24/7 without closing.
3) 25x leverage, no spot anchor. OKX has no ZHIPU spot; 1 contract equals 1 share, settled in USDT. To trade during the half-hour Hong Kong market open, you can only rely on perpetuals.
Fundamentals are not bearish: Zhipu's ARR is 1.8 billion USD, with year-end guidance raised to 3 billion. But on 9-28 it still closed at 622, and today is just a rebound from 460.8 on 10-22.
Would you accept the perpetual premium for Anthropic's valuation, or wait for the closing price to decide? Brothers, ZEC has returned to 1222, but what’s really worth watching isn’t the price, it’s the chip game in the last two weeks before the NU7 upgrade
$ZEC $1,222
ZEC has retraced from the September-end high of 1698 down to around 1222, a drop of about 28%. But today’s discussion isn’t about how deep the pullback is, it’s about what bulls and bears are doing before the upgrade.
ETFs just posted the strongest weekly inflow in six weeks. As of the week ending October 23, Grayscale ZCSH net inflow was $41.1 million, ending three consecutive weeks of outflows, with $20.5 million coming in on Friday alone. But the first three weeks saw a cumulative loss of $143 million, so this wave only recovered about 29%. ETFs are stopping the bleeding, but the wound hasn’t healed yet.
On-chain signals are contradictory. There are whales withdrawing coins to accumulate; on October 20, 814.7 ZEC were withdrawn, about $1.03 million. But on the derivatives side, longs are clearly under pressure, with about $10.03 million in long positions liquidated over 24 hours versus only $3.99 million in shorts. Big players are quietly accumulating while leveraged longs are being liquidated—two groups doing opposite things.
The NU7 date is locked in. Activation block height is 3,543,405, expected around November 5 to 6. Block time will be cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and 60% of fees will be moved into reserves. The old Sprout pool will be permanently disabled after the upgrade, and holders of old addresses have less than two weeks left to migrate.
Technically, 1214 is the resistance at the 20-day moving average, with support between 1175 and 1100. Before NU7 lands, bulls and bears are both waiting for the last card.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Akash Proposal 346 is still in the voting window: migrate the Cosmos sovereign chain to Solana, with AKT converting 1:1 to SPL. The Valopers panel shows about 98% approval and has passed quorum, with the deadline on November 2. This is currently just a directional vote, not a completed migration. CoinGecko spot AKT is about $0.68 (snapshot around 12:00 Beijing time).
More importantly, the process is split into two steps. This vote only concerns the token gateway; switching the market to Solana requires a separate vote, which must first pass audit and rehearsal. Opponents will focus on the one-way irreversible nature and that validators' income drops to zero after staking rewards stop on the old chain. However, DePIN projects tend to favor chains with higher liquidity, at least reducing the fixed overhead of maintaining a sovereign chain.
If the approval rate falls below two-thirds before the vote ends, or if the market switch vote is delayed on-chain, this will be considered an expression of intent rather than the compute rental market officially launching on Solana.
$AKT
#Akash #SolanaMeta's $35B financing plan matters because it turns AI infrastructure into a capital-structure question, not just a spending one. With Q3 free cash flow negative and capex guided at $135B-$145B, the funding mix may preserve flexibility while putting dilution squarely in view.
The real test is whether those assets create durable cash generation before financing becomes a recurring offset to investment.
#Meta35BAIFinancing Brothers, SNDK closed at 1255, but the real battleground between bulls and bears will be the earnings report two days later
$SNDK $1,268
SNDK closed up 1.42% on Monday at 1255.58, with an intraday high of 1287.84 and a low of 1229. The 1268 you mentioned is basically the position after a slight rebound post-close. From the June peak of 2354, the retracement is still around 47%.
The most eye-catching data before the earnings is the option pricing. Traders expect a 12.10% two-way price movement after the earnings release on October 29, equivalent to about $152 per share. In the past four earnings reports, SNDK’s next-day moves were -6.81%, +8.25%, +6.85%, and +15.31%, each time with significant volatility.
But the capital flow tells a different story. One trader gave a capital flow score of -89, indicating "strong outflow," with major players continuously withdrawing over the long cycle. Early session long positions bottom-fishing were directly liquidated for $369,800. Large funds are choosing to hedge before earnings, not to position.
Analysts’ target prices are still lofty. Among 17 covering analysts, most give strong buy ratings, with an average target price of $2205, implying about 75% upside. Mizuho reiterated a $2050 target price, optimistic about NAND prices holding firm through 2027.
Technically, 1229 was Monday’s intraday low and a key short-term observation level. In the last two trading days before earnings, the direction will most likely be dictated by capital flow.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 这个时候看多Recently I saw the burn rules of a token, and the more I look at it, the more it seems like a joke.
The rules are written very nicely: the pool burns 0.25% every hour. But the trigger conditions need a closer look — someone must transfer, authorize, or actively call the burn function for it to execute once.
Here's the problem. It doesn't run automatically every hour; it accumulates. If no one interacts for 24 hours, and then you call it once, 0.25 multiplied by 24 means 6% of the pool's tokens are instantly gone. 48 hours is 12%, 96 hours 24%, and a week of inactivity means 42%.
This token is basically dead now, with very few daily active users and little liquidity in the pool. Who would bother to manually call the function? So the less people manage it, the larger the accumulated percentage becomes. One day, if someone accidentally makes a transfer or grants authorization, the pool could be slashed by a big chunk at once.
For holders, this is like a ticking time bomb. You see the pool sitting stable, but in reality, time quietly amplifies it into a pending deduction. Market makers stepping in will face uncontrollable slippage.
The project team probably never calculated this themselves. When writing the contract, they thought adding a burn would create deflation and pump the price, without considering what the accumulation limit might be. Many projects never seriously consider the economic model from day one; they just want to launch the token first.
When reviewing contracts, don't just look for whether there's a burn, tax, or lockup. You need to see who controls the trigger conditions, how often it executes, and what happens if no one triggers it. Every step that requires manual action is a potential point of failure in the future.
I won't touch this token, not because it’s dropping, but because its rules themselves don’t add up.The "Deflation Illusion" of Public Chains: Can Burned Gas Really Support Token Prices?
Public chain narratives are often deeply tied to "Gas burning" and "deflation." But when underlying transactions are diverted or inflation remains high, the so-called deflation logic is often just a filter.
$ETH: The L1 leader, once built a deflationary powerhouse through EIP-1559. However, with the prosperity of L2 siphoning off activity, L1 Gas fees have been depressed for a long time, sharply reducing burn volume. Currently, ETH has essentially returned to a mild inflation state, and relying solely on the "deflation" logic can no longer support its massive valuation.
$NEAR: Although inflation is suppressed to 2.5%, about $13 million new issuance occurs monthly, while funds used for buybacks are only about $1.9 million, and the repurchased tokens are not burned. Net supply is still expanding, and a deflationary closed loop is far from formed.
$SOL: The smart disruptor. Although daily Gas burns are minimal (about 650 tokens), it does not stubbornly pursue deflation but instead entrusts value capture to ecosystem activity and incremental ETF funds. It supports price through real on-chain demand and staking necessities.
Conclusion:
Don't blindly believe "burning equals price support." Verify whether burn volume outpaces issuance. Public chains lacking enforced deflation mechanisms can only rely on macro bullish trends and genuine ecosystem demand for long-term value. Seeing "taxes may be due even without selling," I was momentarily stunned 🤔. The Netherlands plans to vote in November: the current proposal would tax assets like stocks, bonds, and options upon sale starting in 2028, while cryptocurrencies, gold, and foreign exchange might still be taxed annually on unrealized gains at least until 2030. Industry groups warn this could trigger a sell-off of crypto assets.
My understanding is that this might be less friendly to new local users entering the market, but I'm not sure if that's correct. If holding the same assets, but cryptocurrencies require tax preparation earlier, then choosing assets involves an extra layer of concern; if taxes arise without selling coins, users also have to consider where to get cash from, not just compare paper returns.
I've only been in the space for a year and haven't figured out how loss deductions might affect the actual tax burden; the materials didn't explain that either. I'll keep watching the tax details and remind myself not to directly translate the industry's worries into inevitable price drops.$ETH fell another -3.5% last week, with a cumulative pullback of over -12% in October, currently weakly oscillating around $2310. More worrisome than the price itself are the liquidation landmines hidden below the market.
Coinglass data shows that if ETH falls below $2286, it will trigger about $700 million in long position liquidations; conversely, breaking above $2464 will ignite $526 million in short position liquidations. Both ends are "powder kegs," and which one ignites first depends on two key levels:
Lower defense line: $2240-$2260 — an important support near the rebound starting point in this round, and the last safety cushion for bulls. Once effectively broken, the liquidation chain reaction could quickly push the price down to $2180, where a whale holding $214 million in long positions faces forced liquidation.
Upper checkpoint: $2350 — previous support has turned into resistance; to reverse the weakness in the short term, this level must be reclaimed first, then look upward to the core resistance zone of $2440-$2480.
The biggest variable this week is the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 policy meeting. If dovish signals are released, ETH is expected to leverage the momentum to break through $2350 and quickly recover; if the hawkish tone is maintained, the risk of long liquidation will significantly increase. Combined with the extremely low on-chain Gas fee of only 0.1 Gwei — indicating that selling pressure has been largely released — the short-term is more likely to repeatedly bottom out in the $2240-$2350 range. Operationally, watch both ends closely and avoid chasing in the middle #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 .HYPE This pullback now looks more like a shakeout rather than a rally-chasing phase - for those who bought nearby, did they really get a bargain? I only saw Coinbase's spike to 72 at noon, and my ladder orders at 74 and 73 actually got filled. My first reaction wasn’t excitement, but to quickly check the perpetual positions and funding rates to see if they had flipped. Spot has retraced nearly a quarter from the highs, strong assets have dropped 25% to 30%, which to me has always been a range where you can slowly build positions, but the premise is that derivatives aren’t too crowded. What concerns me is the rhythm. When the price dropped sharply, there was no runaway cascade liquidation in the perpetuals, indicating leverage wasn’t stacked extremely, and shorts didn’t dare to aggressively add positions. Under this structure, rebounds often don’t need much buying power to push up; the bullish path is: spot ladder orders continue to absorb, perpetual funding rates remain neutral to slightly bearish, waiting for a volume-increasing bullish candle to force short-sellers back, and the squeeze naturally happens. But the fragile point is here. If funding rates suddenly turn hot and positions quickly build up, this pullback could turn from a shakeout into a double bottom test, and floating positions above 75 would become new selling pressure. I prefer to see it as a turnover in strong assets rather than a trend reversal, provided leverage isn’t added back during the rebound. Fundamentally, I do favor its model. With a global perpetual market size of 9.3 trillion annually, it only accounts for about 3%, so there’s still plenty of room; circulating market cap is under 20 billion, yet profitability is not inferior to some traditional financial benchmarks. Holding it is almost like holding a companyBetween 80,000 and 100,000, separated by a whole mood
BTC tested 80,000 for the third time, dipping as low as 79,330 USD before pulling back. You say "it can't even hold 80,000," but Glassnode sees another side: buyers are returning near 80,000, selling pressure is hanging around 85,000 and 87,000, and the market is trapped in a range, with no clear direction yet. Repeatedly breaking down and then recovering is itself a sign of bulls and bears exhausting each other at the same price level, not a one-sided collapse.
100,000 by year-end, the divergence is even greater than the price. Standard Chartered lowered its year-end target from 150,000 to 100,000, Bitwise's Ryan Rasmussen still believes that ETF and corporate buying demand is enough to push it, while CoinMarketCap's forecast falls between 85,000 and 92,000. The answer to "Does anyone still believe?" is: some do, but fewer are believing, and the reasons vary.
On the ETH side, your intuition is backed by data. 2,286 USD is a liquidation-heavy zone, ETFs had a net outflow of over 1 billion USD in October, and Arthur Hayes liquidated 6,400 ETH. The overhead supply is real, and you're not the only one wanting to run on the rebound.
But it's not shameful to have conflicting thoughts. Rationality lets you see the exhaustion at the tail of the bull, emotion makes you reluctant to let go of that 100,000 K-line you haven't touched yet. The market never moves forward on consensus; it is precisely in this kind of "wanting to run but hoping for a rise" conflict that direction is squeezed out little by little.
$BTC $ETH After eight consecutive trading days of net inflows into ETFs, today saw the first net outflow of $117.2 million. Has the capital turning point ended? Let's start with the news. Capital side: latest single-day net outflow of $117.2 million (after eight consecutive days of net inflows), 5-day net inflow still $306.5 million, 10-day net inflow $160.7 million. Price side: BTC at $79,808.7, 24h -1.03%, past week -2.6%; 20-day range from $79,220.1 to $85,857.4. Sentiment side: Fear & Greed Index from 54 to 50. Macro side: Dollar 101.64 (-0.17%), Gold 3,998.6 (-0.23%), S&P 500 7,623.68 (-0.52%). Now looking at the capital impact. A single-day negative turn has two possibilities: one is profit-taking (funds inflowed during the previous eight days start to cash out); the other is the start of a trend reversal (allocation funds withdrawing). The key to distinguishing between the two is to look at the 5-day and 10-day data: if both remain positive, it indicates just a short-term fluctuation; if the 5-day also turns negative, it means the trend has truly changed. Currently, 5-day +$306.5 million and 10-day +$160.7 million are still positive. Implication for BTC: it is now closer to "profit-taking" rather than "trend reversal." But this is already a warning sign: the capital support of eight consecutive days has been broken. In the next two to three trading days, if ETFs return to net inflows, the capital turning point still holds; if outflows continue, the $79,220 support will be hard to maintain. I continue$STRK
Zero-knowledge technology can help blockchains process activity more efficiently, but technical sophistication is only one part of the equation. Starknet’s long-term position depends on whether developers can build applications that users actually prefer. Token supply dynamics, competition among scaling networks, and the conversion of ecosystem activity into lasting demand remain important factors in assessing its progress.#Intel's Foundry Transformation Welcomes New Variable Terafab The day before yesterday, $DOOD was suppressing short squeezes with negative funding rates, and today it surged 47% in one move.
Review: On October 21, when it went on contract, it surged to 0.0052. I said that was a bullish realization, but then it dropped 73% back to the original point.
The day before yesterday, when it stabilized at 0.0014, my bullish basis was the funding rate at negative 0.24% and the shorts being too crowded. Today at 9 AM, it jumped from 0.0020 directly to 0.00295, shorts were consecutively liquidated, and it rose 70% in 24 hours.
Now the funding rate hit negative 0.47%, shorts are still paying sky-high rent, so theoretically the short squeeze isn't over.
But the current price of 0.0024 has already pulled back from the high point; the surge to 0.00295 exactly hit the previous dense trapped positions area, chasing in now means getting crushed first.
My plan: Lightly buy on a pullback to stabilize between 0.00212 and 0.0020, watch for a second surge to 0.00295, if it breaks, look at 0.0032.
If it falls below 0.0020, the boundary between bulls and bears, the short squeeze fizzles out, exit immediately.
If you have no position, don't chase above 0.0029; this kind of market can move 20% up or down in one spike.
Are you betting on a second short squeeze breaking 0.00295, or is this just a one-day play with a pullback to the previous low?
$DOOD $BTC
#Doodles #Contract The midterm election has become a positioning problem for crypto traders, not just a political story. Prediction markets and polling point to Democratic momentum, yet Republican fundraising tells a different story: $1.1 billion raised by late August against $600 million for Democrats, with technology figures such as Musk and crypto-aligned donors backing the Republican side. That mismatch between sentiment and money is exactly the kind of divergence that keeps large holders cautious. The electio#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
The leader has something to say
The capital flow of BTC spot ETFs has been fluctuating recently. From October 19 to 21, there was a continuous inflow of 1.075 billion, followed by an outflow of 774 million in the next two days. However, the overall net inflow this week is still about 301 million, with BlackRock IBIT contributing 566 million. During the same period, BTC once fell below 80,000 and the 50-day moving average, currently down 0.37%, with the price still under pressure.
I believe this data indicates that funds are rotating, not retreating. The comments are accurate: ETF funds are rotating, not retreating; the weekly net inflow is still about 300 million, and net positions have not significantly decreased. The underlying buying interest remains, but short-term fund volatility has clearly increased. The key now is whether new buying can continue to support BTC to stabilize at 80,000. Only sustained net inflows can confirm stabilization; otherwise, spot support will thin out.
Last night, BTC took a waterfall drop; now we see if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't hold, expect a deeper correction, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Do not chase the rise or sell in panic; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC A new gameplay has emerged on Solana, $LAUNCH now has a market cap of about 1.4M USD.
What it aims to change is the act of issuing tokens itself. Developers cannot bundle chips and sneak away at block 0, the same ticker cannot be issued repeatedly, and repeated tweet spamming by one person is not recognized. Creator fees are 100% automatically used for buyback and burn, not going into anyone's wallet.
These few rules happen to hit the three dirtiest spots in the meme scene: insider trading, copycat projects, and volume manipulation. The rules are hardcoded in the contract, which is more effective than slogans.
What's more interesting is that it was caught by a tool on its first day. An AI coin selection system gave a signal when its market cap was only 1.39K USD, later rising all the way to 33.4K USD, more than twenty times. The machine doesn't care how pretty the story is, it only looks at whether the funds and chips are really moving.
I personally look at three points for this kind of target: whether the rules are truly written into the contract, whether the creator's fee usage is locked, and who holds the early chips. The first two points for $LAUNCH seem serious, the third requires pulling data yourself, don't trust screenshots.
1.4M is neither high nor low; going up depends either on narrative spread or real buyback with actual money. DYOR, don't go all in at once. #The October FOMC rate decision will be announced this week; a pause is almost certain, the real focus is on the wording and the December path
The Federal Reserve's October 27-28 FOMC meeting decision is expected to be announced at 2:00 AM Beijing time on October 29. The market widely expects rates to remain unchanged. No new economic projections will be released this time, so there is no dot plot to reference. The focus is entirely on the statement and the chair's press conference: how the Fed evaluates the hotter-than-expected September CPI and PPI, whether it still sees inflation risks as tilted to the upside, and whether it leaves the door open for action in December.
Logical analysis: The pause is fully priced in and is not a new positive for BTC. The real expectation gap lies in the wording. If the statement is hawkish and the press conference emphasizes stubborn inflation and hints at possible December action, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar will strengthen, making a BTC rebound difficult. If the wording is moderate and emphasizes data dependence, risk assets may get a short-term breather. The preliminary Q3 GDP and September PCE at 8:30 PM on October 29 are also critical: strong GDP and hot PCE will raise year-end rate hike expectations, suppressing BTC; moderate PCE will reinforce the pause narrative.
Trading strategy: Do not bet on a one-sided move before the meeting. After the decision, if BTC rallies on low volume and the statement is hawkish, prioritize reducing positions or lightly shorting with a stop loss above the previous high. If the wording is moderate and BTC rallies with volume to hold above the 83,000-84,000 resistance, consider light long positions for a short-term move. 80,000 remains a key support; if broken and not quickly recovered, be cautious. Core principle: the pause is not a pivot; the expectation gap is in the wording, not the result. Manage position size and set stop losses properly.data📊 shows that Google's cloud backlog currently reaches $513.9 billion, with explosive future fulfillment demand!
Second is the search advertising business, which grew 17% in Q2. With AI features increasing search queries and using AI to improve ad matching, this segment's exceeding growth is also quite certain✅, as referenced by Meta's recent earnings report.
Third is YouTube and streaming ecosystem monetization, including YouTube ads + subscriptions, and the rapidly growing Shorts Anthropic filed its IPO prospectus on Monday: revenue of $16.3 billion in the first half of the year, a 13-fold year-on-year surge
Net loss of $80.7 billion in the same period, with $72.4 billion being non-cash book losses
Q2 quarterly revenue of $11.56 billion, first operating profit of $974 million
But Q3 guidance is $16.8 billion, only a 45% quarter-on-quarter increase, much slower than Q2's 147%
Chip stocks still rebounded across the board on Monday: ARM up 6.19%, Intel up 4.04%, AMD up 2.8%
I think this prospectus saves sentiment, not valuation: a $2 trillion valuation depends on growth not falling behind to hold up, observing not chasing
Failure point: roadshow pricing falls below $1.5 trillion, or growth continues to narrow after Q3
Which side are you on: Is Anthropic worth $2 trillion, or is the AI bubble about to burst?
$AMD $ARM $NVDA
#Anthropic #AI#SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? $ZEC Everyone says 1150 is a solid bottom, but be careful—this might be a safety illusion created by the main players!
Folks, yesterday's ZEC stop-loss point was still too conservative; it went up to 1267.
Next, let's talk about how to view ZEC today?
Grayscale ETF had a net inflow of about $41.1 million last week, ending three weeks of outflows, with institutions repositioning at low levels. Currently, contract open interest increased by 8%, trading volume expanded by 20%, buying is active, and short-term funds are entering proactively. But don't chase the highs just yet; with the ETF supporting the bottom and contract volume increasing, the current trend is bullish.
My approach is to wait for a pullback to around 1200 to stabilize before considering entry, and confirm after breaking through 1230. If it falls below 1180, it means funds didn't catch it—stop loss immediately. In a volatile market, follow the money, not the emotions.
Chip data shows 73% of holders are in profit; 1150 has strong support, but the 1280-1300 range is heavily pressured, indicating a lot of positions are waiting to break even above. Today's operation is to wait for a pullback or breakout before acting; preserving capital is more important than making quick money.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？ Microsoft is a company with enormous long-term technological potential, but a good company and a good price are always two different things. I don't have much prejudice against memes, but when I see active trading, I always want to click into the pool to take a look. If it's just the same batch of wallets moving funds around between different low-quality tokens, that's just existing capital changing tables, which is quite different from new money coming onto the chain. Especially after liquidity is withdrawn, the price on the screen remains, but when actual selling happens, the slippage can be shocking. So just looking at screenshots of price increases doesn't really excite me. Everyone is quite active when talking about memes, but when asked how much stablecoin is in the pool, no one responds?In the early hours today, $ETH barely moved for over three hours. It just stayed flat, no buyers coming in, no sellers in a hurry.
This kind of narrow range isn’t a suppressed narrow range. When it’s suppressed, volatility shrinks, positions increase, and volume slowly accumulates at the bottom. Now volatility has shrunk, positions haven’t moved, and volume is still dropping. Price is flat, but the number of participants keeps decreasing.
What illustrates the issue even more is last night: the Nasdaq $QQQ was triggered by $ANTHROPIC’s IPO filing, but crypto showed no reaction at all. The news isn’t lacking, buyers are.
There are still liquidations within this narrow range, and those being wiped out are longs. Price barely moves, but people are gradually leaving — this is more exhausting than a sharp drop.
At the current level, the technical line above was effectively lost yesterday, and now it’s sitting on a round number level. If that round number level doesn’t hold, the next demand zone below isn’t far away.
Everyone is waiting for the decision early Thursday morning. But most people can guess the outcome, and predictable things don’t bring market moves. What really matters is whether volume can return after the announcement — if volume doesn’t come back, this sideways trading will continue.
#Anthropic正式申请IPO，或创上市估值纪录 $BTC $ETH Hotspot Tracking｜Whales Concentrate Transfers to Exchanges, On the Eve of FOMC, Market Sell-off Signals Fully Triggered
Let's first review yesterday's market: BTC peaked at 80820 but failed to break above 81000, facing heavy selling pressure above. After the surge, it quickly fell back, hitting a low of 79422.
ETH also weakened, reaching a high of 2344, then following BTC down to a low of 2292. It can't even hold above 2350 now; the market is extremely weak.
The latest CME FedWatch data is out, showing the market's probability of keeping rates unchanged in October has reached 89.5%. Many think no rate hike is good news, but there's a hidden downside that's easy to overlook!
The market expectation is fully priced in, with nearly 90% of funds betting on no rate hike this time. If the result meets expectations and there is no other positive stimulus, the market will likely see a pullback after the good news is realized.
Moreover, with the FOMC meeting approaching, market sentiment is quite low. I have monitored some recent whale movements; the next article will analyze whether whales are quietly accumulating or dumping their positions! #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 SK Hynix Earnings Report Approaching: Which Will Impact Expectations More, HBM4 Progress or Profit Guidance?
My inclination: In the short term, focus first on profit guidance; HBM4 progress will determine whether the premium can continue. SK Hynix already disclosed in Q2 that HBM4 has started mass production and shipment, with further ramp-up planned for the second half of the year. So this time, the market is not lacking the story of "the product is made," but rather whether it can translate into more deliveries and profits. If the company cannot provide stronger signals on next quarter's demand, shipments, and profit margins, capital might also feel the good news has already been priced in.
I will watch two things: what management says about next quarter's orders, shipments, and profit margins; and whether HBM4 has clear ramp-up, delivery, and customer validation progress. The former answers "can we still make more profit," the latter answers "can high profits be maintained." The company previously stated that capacity expansion will proceed in phases based on customer demand and investment efficiency, so if demand and shipments are realized while capital expenditures remain controlled, that confirms both profit and growth quality.
Conversely, having only HBM4 technological leadership without a mass production rhythm may not be enough in the short term; achieving a quarterly profit record but with a flat outlook may also mean the good news is fully priced. My judgment has a counterexample: if the earnings call provides clear large-scale delivery milestones, yield improvements, and customer order expansions, while profit outlook is just stable, then HBM4 itself will overshadow the current quarter guidance and become a stronger expectation variable.
$SKHY $SNDK #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 BTC has been stuck around 80,000 for several days, fluctuating just a few hundred U up and down, so boring. Why hold at 80,000? Because the US spot ETF and the Treasury's average holding cost are basically concentrated in the 80,000 to 81,500 range. In other words, if the price firmly closes below 80,000, these two groups of "big money" will collectively be at an unrealized loss. So you can see that every time it dips, there are buy orders around 79.3k to 79.6k, but it softens again when it rebounds to 80.5k to 80.8k — funds are doing short-term trades within this gap. No one wants to make the first move; everyone is waiting for the FOMC statement on October 28. There is actually no good news on the macro side. It is consensus that the FOMC will hold steady, with a 90% probability of a hike, but what really suppresses risk appetite is the tech and AI sector — KOSPI had an intraday circuit breaker, the Nasdaq weakened, chip stocks softened, and BTC was tagged again as a "risk asset." If Powell hints even a little hawkishness after the meeting, this 80,000 support might not hold. ETH/BTC has already broken down to 0.0294, losing the long-held 0.0300 support. ETH itself saw a net outflow of 170,000 coins from exchanges in a single day; on-chain data looks like accumulation, but the exchange rate doesn't agree at all. The privacy sector is moving against the trend, with XMR and ZEC still slightly rising, indicating that funds have not decisively left In the past 24 hours, the spot prices of $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL have generally remained sideways and stable. The contract market is overall "calm with a bullish bias": open interest (OI) has slightly increased, funding rates are moderately positive, and liquidations are low and balanced. Leverage is not overstretched, prices lack clear direction, making it suitable to observe for subsequent breakouts.
1️⃣ Open Interest
🔻BTC OI is about $54.14 billion, up approximately 0.95%-1.06% in 24 hours, indicating a slight net inflow of leveraged funds.
🔻ETH OI is about $29.57 billion, basically flat (+0.08%).
🔻SOL OI is about $6.23 billion.
Overall, OI is stable with a slight increase, combined with sideways prices, indicating both bulls and bears are accumulating rather than one-sided sentiment dominating.
2️⃣ Liquidation Data
🔻BTC liquidations are about $36.45 million (bulls and bears nearly evenly split, bulls $18.46 million, bears $17.99 million).
🔻ETH liquidations are about $39.93 million (bull liquidations $27.60 million significantly exceed bear liquidations $12.33 million).
🔻SOL liquidations are about $6.34 million, with a higher proportion of bulls.
The liquidation scale is low and relatively balanced, indicating no large-scale bull or bear squeezes recently, and leverage risk is controllable.
3️⃣ Long-Short Ratio and Position Sentiment
The long-short ratio shows that both retail and top traders are clearly biased bullish: BTC long-short ratio on Binance accounts is about 2.3, ETH even higher at 3.4. Top traders’ positions are also bullish. Market buy orders account for nearly 50%, sentiment is neutral to slightly bullish but not extremely crowded.$IRYS This wave is obviously a rat warehouse cash-out scheme.
900 newly created wallets on-chain just finished claiming the airdrop, then immediately transferred and dumped 4 million USD on Bitget.
Free chips are concentrated and dumped into the secondary market, so dumping the price costs nothing at all. When the buy orders are completely drained like this, the dealer doesn't pull up but instead pushes down, leaving only a path of gradual decline to find the bottom.
#IRYS
$IRYS
👇Elon Musk just raised 40 billion, and Mark Zuckerberg is about to raise 95 billion! Can AI boost it?
It's good news for chip stocks.
If Meta can raise the money, procurement will be more secure, easing concerns about "AI orders not holding up."
But the 95 billion needs to be broken down.
This time about 35 billion is launched, and another 60 billion is a stock sale plan to be launched next year. Chip companies intend to subscribe to 5 billion, but it's just an intention and not finalized yet.
Meta shareholders are calculating a different set of numbers.
Q3 operating cash flow was 32.8 billion, capital expenditure 34.9 billion, and free cash flow has turned negative. The money earned that quarter is no longer enough to spend.
Continuing to raise funds lets Mark Zuckerberg go all out, but shareholders have to bear dilution and wait for returns. So the same news makes chip sellers happy, but Meta holders not necessarily so.
I'm more reserved.
Financing can ease concerns about order cuts, but doubts about AI returns remain. Raising more money, increasing expenses, and cash flow not recovering means the excitement won't last long.
Mark Zuckerberg needs to prove not only that he can raise the money, but also how much shareholders can actually earn from spending it.There was a scene on Monday worth pondering: US chip stocks collectively rallied, the Nasdaq rose nearly one percent, the VIX pulled back below 19, showing a risk-on mood. But what about $BTC? It stuck around 80,000 without moving, with the day's high and low separated by just about a thousand.
Stocks rise, crypto doesn't follow — this kind of divergence often carries more information than a simple drop. It indicates that the crypto market's current weakness isn't caused by macro factors but internal issues: funding rates have returned to neutral, and liquidation data shows that it's the longs chasing rebounds who are getting wiped out. In other words, they're killing their own people.
Outside it's sunny and calm, but inside they're clearing out crowded longs. At times like this, chasing the rebound to go long is basically catching a knife that hasn't fallen yet. I'd rather stand on the sidelines and wait for it to wash out the players. Do you think this knife has hit the ground yet? > #Strive added 6,182 $BTC in a week — let's do the math on cost first
> Strive disclosed Oct 26: +6,182 BTC, total now 43,000 BTC, plus $1B preferred stock plan.
> Big size — understand the hype. But preferred pays 15% annual dividend. BTC yields no cash — what funds the payout?
> Will look at: BTC holdings growth, BTC per share, and cash reserves together. Financing can expand buying power, but ultimate shareholder return still needs.
#AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI $ETH Ancient Whales Are Selling — But There May Be More to the Story! 🐋 Ethereum's early holders have started moving $ETH to exchanges in batches, but focusing only on their selling activity could mean missing a bigger part of the picture. With an estimated cost basis of just $0.31, these long-term holders are sitting on enormous unrealized gains. Even selling a portion of their holdings at current prices would represent an extraordinary return. However, the other side of the story deserves at