Orbit Post Sitemap
Hynix earnings countdown: two days left, will the US stock market rally tonight?
Today is 10.26, only two days remain until SK Hynix announces its Q3 earnings. Last week, AI tech stocks pulled back one after another, and the market started to worry about when the huge AI investments will finally pay off.
Tonight, US stock futures have already turned positive, and oil prices have also retreated after several days of decline. Funds might take this opportunity to push the market up.
Pre-market:
Nasdaq 100 futures: +0.25%
$MU 889.66, +1.38%
$SNDK 1,254.29, +1.32%
$SKHY 140.94, +2.86%
Hynix will release its earnings on October 28, with the market estimating operating profit around 76.96 trillion KRW. Shipments of HBM4 and storage price increases are key points, but market expectations are already high. Whether the results beat expectations depends on actual performance (after all, everyone knows AI lacks storage, so it depends on who can truly turn demand into profit).
Although I bet Hynix's earnings won't exceed expectations, objectively, the chance of beating expectations is high.
If MU and SNDK continue to strengthen, they could help restore sentiment in tech stocks.
But pre-market gains don't guarantee a continuous rise after the open; the market isn't that predictable.
Tonight is Monday and an important night to observe fund sentiment.
After several days of decline, those who need to deleverage have done so, and those looking to bottom-fish are waiting for opportunities. It's too early to conclude whether all the bad news is priced in; first, let's see if the Nasdaq can hold steady, then if Hynix's earnings can take over.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 📊 In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency contract market experienced a wave of concentrated liquidations, with a total liquidation amount of approximately $542 million, affecting over 115,000 traders. However, what truly deserves attention is not just the scale of liquidations, but how the power dynamics between bulls and bears are shifting. 🔻 1. In the past 24 hours, bulls have been the main victims Among the total liquidation amount, long positions accounted for about $460 million, approximately 85%. This means traders who previously bet on price increases have suffered a greater impact. 📉 $BTC: Liquidations reached $175 million, with long positions accounting for 88.6%. 📉 $ETH: Liquidations reached $157 million, with long positions accounting for 84.4%. 📉 $SOL: Liquidations amounted to about $23.91 million. 📉 $ZEC: Liquidations amounted to about $14.32 million. These figures indicate that leveraged longs in the market have taken a significant hit, especially those overly reliant on leverage and lacking risk buffers. 🔄 2. The real change to watch for has appeared in the last few hours If we only look at the 24-hour data, it’s easy to conclude that bulls remain in a passive position. But data from the last few hours shows a different signal. ⏱️ In the past 4 hours, total market liquidations were about $18.41 million, with short positions liquidated around $14.61 million. ⏱️ In the past 1 hour, total liquidations were about $2.61 million, with short positions liquidated close to $1.99 million. In other words #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
HBM4 is very likely to boost Q3 profits, but "boosting profits" does not necessarily mean "stock price will definitely rise." The market already has high expectations for Q3, so the stock price reaction will depend more on: the ASP/gross margin after HBM4 volume ramp-up, Q4 guidance, and shareholder returns such as special dividends/buybacks.
I will focus on four key signals during the Q3 earnings call:
1. The proportion and ramp-up of HBM4 revenue: whether it truly shifts from "shipments" to "scale revenue";
2. Q4 guidance: if it confirms continued DRAM tightness and an improved mix of HBM4/1c DRAM, the profit baseline is more likely to be revised upward;
3. LTA and ASP elasticity: long-term contracts provide stable cash flow but may sacrifice spot price increase flexibility;
4. Shareholder returns: the market has rumored a possible special dividend of up to about 160 trillion KRW, but the company says it is still under review and not confirmed; the 400 trillion KRW buyback has been completed, and subsequent plans may be mutually constrained with Solidigm's funding arrangements.#France 10-Year Government Bond Yield Surpasses US Treasuries for the First Time Since 2013
The leader has something to say
On October 22, the yield on France's 10-year government bonds rose to 5.14%, hitting a new high since 2002 and surpassing US Treasuries of the same maturity for the first time since 2013. The spread between French and German bonds widened to 175 basis points, reaching a 15-year high. Moody's maintains an Aa3 rating but the outlook remains negative.
I believe this is not just a credit issue of a single country, but a signal of fiscal deficit repricing among core European countries. Some comments are spot on: the French bond yield surpassing US Treasuries stems from repricing of deficit and rating risks, and credit premiums will rise systemically. Although the rating hasn't been downgraded, the negative outlook means France's credit buffer space has been exhausted.
This is a warning for the global bond market. Rising financing costs for core European countries will squeeze risk asset valuations. However, US stocks and bonds were not directly impacted today, indicating that funds currently still treat this as a localized event.
On the market front, Bitcoin took a waterfall drop last night and is now fluctuating around 80,000.
Watch if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Do not chase the rise or sell in panic; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC The US stock market has closed, but the stocks on-chain are still falling. This is the most authentic state of this track.
OKX xStocks quotes: xSNDK, which is SanDisk, at $1576.12, up 1.79%; xSPCX, which is SpaceX, at $150.87, up 0.63%; xCRCL, which is Circle, at $101.90, up 0.56%. The 24-hour trading volumes are 4.54M, 4.99M, and 5.35M respectively. This is the real popularity ceiling of on-chain stocks.
The leverage side is even hotter. Crypto.com stock perpetual fee annualized rates: $xSNDK +94.3%, $xSPCX +57.8%, $xCRCL +25.6%. Bulls are paying a high premium.
But another set of data conflicts: Hyperliquid reports SNDK at 1297.95, down 6.61%; CRCL at 82.38, down 4.89%; SPCX at 145.90, down 2.05%; SOXL down 12.25%. The price differences far exceed the normal range. This is not an arbitrage opportunity but a liquidity gap.
The falsifiable point is this: if xSNDK is still around 1300 after the US stock market opens on Monday, it means the on-chain pricing reflects an overnight semiconductor crash, not a USDT-side failure.Ethereum's price dropped 15% this month, and the leverage on the contracts side has first contracted.
The nominal open interest of ETH contracts on Binance decreased by nearly $1.3 billion in a month, now remaining around $5.7 billion. At the same time, the total ETH contract market size shrank to about $11.5 billion. Price dropped, market cap evaporated by $54 billion, and leverage retreated — these three events happened within the same period.
On October 25, ETH spot price was around $2,330.
This market movement can be broken down into three forces: price decline, liquidation, and active position reduction. The first two are passive, the third is active — holders with positions are unwilling to hold on and cut their positions first. These three forces combined made the market lighter.
But a lighter market doesn’t mean the bottom has been reached. The leverage retreat only cleared out the most vulnerable players. For the price to rise, it depends on whether anyone is willing to buy at the $2,300 level. Contract positions cut by 20% indicate that bulls lacked confidence over the past month, not that the downward trend is over.
The real focus should be on two numbers. One is whether open interest can rebound when the price stabilizes — that would mean new money is entering; the other is whether the next price dip triggers less liquidation than this round. If less, it means the vulnerable have been cleared; if still large, it means leverage has just shifted to a new group.
$2,300 is not a pretty level, but it’s a level where the chip distribution can be clearly seen.Binance ETH contracts cut positions by 20% in one month, with open interest nominally reduced by $1.3 billion, now at $5.7 billion, while the entire market is at $11.5 billion.
During the same period, ETH dropped 15%, wiping out $54 billion in market value, with spot price around $2,330 on October 25.
Price drop, liquidations, and active position reductions are happening simultaneously. The market is lighter, but lighter doesn't mean the bottom has been reached; it depends on whether new money comes in around 2300 to catch it. If no one steps in, it just means no one is holding, not that someone is buying.#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
To judge the weakening of altcoins, I first look at the relative strength signal of "falling with BTC but not rising with it." When BTC is sideways or slightly rising, altcoins not only fail to rise but instead break key support levels first; or when BTC pulls back slightly, altcoins experience a large bearish candlestick crash (i.e., the "BTC bloodsucking" effect appears). At the same time, observe whether BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) is rapidly rising; if so, it indicates funds are withdrawing from altcoins back to the mainstream, and at this point, one must decisively reduce positions or short.$NEAR has been quite volatile these past two days, but the volume has remained steady, with a 24h increase of about 2.7%.
From 11 PM last night to 1 AM this morning, the price jumped directly from 4.49 to 4.69, then gradually retraced. Interestingly, at 9 AM, 11 AM, and 3 PM during the day, the price was pushed down to 4.43–4.45 three times but was supported each time, with the lower shadows getting shorter, indicating buyers waiting below.
The current price is around 4.53, stuck in the middle, so I don’t want to open a position here. Above, 4.57 is the resistance level that was tested twice this afternoon but not broken, and further up, 4.66–4.69 is the high zone from early morning. The funding rate is around 0.008%, showing no overheating.
My own plan:
Direction: Buy on pullback
Entry: 4.45–4.47
Stop loss: 4.40 (if the bottom that held three times breaks, I’m out)
Target 1: 4.60
Target 2: 4.68
At Target 1, I’ll close half the position and move the stop loss to breakeven for the rest. If there’s no pullback, I won’t chase; if it breaks below 4.40 and doesn’t recover, I’ll wait to see around 4.25, near the spike from the day before yesterday.
For NEAR here, are you waiting for a pullback, or do you think 4.43 won’t hold?
Just my personal view, not investment advice, DYOR
#NEAR #ContractStrategy #AIBTC had a sharp dip in the afternoon, with the lowest point at 79,638.6 at 16:00 Beijing time on OKEx.
At 17:45, it was pulled directly up to 80,549, now around 80,373, basically flat over 24h.
This week’s calendar is full: Wednesday is the Fed meeting, with results at 2 AM Thursday Beijing time. CME FedWatch shows a 90.6% chance of no change, 9.4% chance of a rate hike, and 0% chance of a rate cut; on Friday, about $11 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire.
The liquidation distribution is quite symmetrical. According to data from pumpglass contracts, there are about $100 million long liquidations near 78,701 below, about $61 million short liquidations at 81,705 above, and $110 million more at 83,145.
ETH is currently at 2,331. CoinGlass reports the largest single liquidation in 24h was a $6.97 million ETHUSDT long, liquidated near 2,322.
My view is that the liquidation levels on both sides will likely be tested before the meeting. I won’t add positions before the meeting; I’ll watch which side of 78.7k and 81.7k gets taken out first.
Based on public information, this is my personal opinion for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market has risks. Invest cautiously $BTC $ETH $SNDK $BTC Observation: BTC and $ETH temporarily stabilize under volume contraction recovery, but a true reversal is still premature 😌
The market finally caught a breather over the weekend. BTC returned to 80760, up 1.26% intraday; ETH touched 2355, up 2.19%, showing slightly stronger resilience.📈
But don’t rush to call a reversal. BTC’s trading volume was only 4.8 billion, ETH just over 5 billion; incremental funds have not entered, it’s still existing funds switching positions within the market.🔁 This round looks more like an oversold recovery after continuous declines, not a trend-level turning point.
External disturbances remain: next week’s FOMC meeting, midterm elections approaching, tech stocks under pressure due to AI narrative doubts, large funds tend to stay on the sidelines.⏳ BTC is temporarily holding the 80,000 level, ETH’s resistance above 2400 remains. A weak rebound on low volume is unlikely to sustain a smooth one-way move; before the macro shoe drops, repeated bottom oscillations are still the main theme.🌊
$ETH $SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ SanDisk's high growth cannot always be explained simply by "AI needs more storage." No matter how strong the demand is, how customers place orders and how contracts are set will also affect how long this business can remain stable.
The company previously disclosed that after announcing five new business model agreements in April, it signed another five agreements, three of which involve new customers and two are expansions of existing collaborations. It's especially important not to misinterpret this: five new agreements do not equal five new customers.
I am interested in these agreements because the most frustrating aspect of the storage industry is that when the market is good, everyone competes for goods, and when the market is bad, orders and prices both loosen. If the cooperation arrangements can improve procurement visibility and allow customers and suppliers to share investment risks more clearly, the company's operational quality could improve.
But the number of agreements alone cannot prove this. Details such as which products are covered, how long the agreements last, and how procurement commitments are executed are worth waiting for in subsequent disclosures. Signing agreements cannot be recognized as revenue in advance.
High growth looks exciting, and I am willing to watch. But I want to know more about how much profit the company can retain when the industry is not so hot. Only by managing customer relationships and contract mechanisms well can the company make the money earned this cycle rely less on market cycles and more on operational capability.
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ This breakdown captures the most essential contradiction in the current market: under simultaneous resonance, pricing logic has already stratified.
The issue with ETH is not simply a decline, but that institutional channels are systematically retreating. In October, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $1.08 billion, nearly wiping out all inflows from September, mainly concentrated in ETHA. More troublingly, after Bitmine approaches the 5% holding limit, its buying pace may slow, creating a vacuum in marginal buying. On-chain withdrawals seem active, but continuous selling on the ETF side indicates that chips are flowing more from institutions to on-chain deposits rather than new demand.
SOL’s awkwardness lies in the "narrative running ahead of the funds." The Alpenglow upgrade compressed final confirmation time to 150 milliseconds, and Q3 on-chain data also hit record highs, but spot ETFs have had consecutive days of net outflows, totaling over $70 million. A busier network does not mean a more expensive token; 74% of SOL is staked and locked, so the price is ultimately determined by that small portion of liquid chips.
ZEC is both the strongest and riskiest. The NU7 upgrade launches on November 5, with privacy narratives combined with ETF channels driving a big rally this year, but positive funding rates mean longs are still paying to hold positions. Small market cap plus high leverage means once the narrative is fulfilled, it’s most prone to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" stampede.
Next, watch two signals: whether ETH ETF outflows narrow, and whether ZEC funding rates fall. The former determines if ETH can stop falling; the latter decides if ZEC’s strength is sustainable. Position size matters more than direction.
$ETH #StockEarningsSeason #USStockEarnings
A question: Coinbase's expected EPS this quarter was $0.43 three months ago, now it's a loss of $0.22. With the bar cut this low, is it considered low enough or still not low enough?
Earnings report after US market close on Thursday, around 4 AM Beijing time Friday, with a conference call at 5 AM. Expected revenue about $1.2 billion, compared to $1.87 billion same period last year, and revenue has missed expectations for three consecutive quarters.
Its earnings day price movement is quite interesting: in the last 8 times, it rose 3 times and fell 5 times, the biggest drop was -20.9%, last time in July was -12.0%. Options this time only bet ±6.8%, I calculated the average actual volatility for these 8 times is 8.8%.
I will watch the trading revenue. Q2 consumer trading revenue was $452 million, down 20% year-over-year, while BTC rose nearly 27% in the past three months, not sure if trading volume kept up.
Binance perpetual is now around 162, roughly fluctuating between 160–180 in the past two weeks. If 160 breaks before earnings, sentiment won't look good; 175–180 is where previous rallies pulled back.
$COIN $BTC
Guess if the first day after earnings will be up or down? One word is enough, I'll check the answer when results come out.
Keep your own records, DYOR, this is not investment advice The green cardiac output curve on the monitor just jumped by 25%, but no one in the operating room applauded—everyone saw the still unstitched bridge vessel lying on the surface of the heart.
Intel’s heart has indeed regained its pumping function in Q2. Revenue rose by a quarter year-over-year, equivalent to the ejection fraction being lifted back from the critical threshold to the normal range; the Q3 guidance of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion matches the expected perfusion pressure window communicated to the family before surgery. But the rule in cardiac surgery is: improved indicators don’t mean the lesion is cleared. What truly determines prognosis is the right coronary artery—the data center business—whether it can maintain blood flow under high metabolic demand, and whether the collateral circulation called foundry can stop leaking.
The demand for AI computing power objectively acts like a positive inotropic drug for this heart. The perfusion demand side is expanding; the problem lies on the supply side: the 18A and 14A process nodes are still on cardiopulmonary bypass. No matter how well the vessels are reopened, if the anastomosis lacks endothelialization and stable blood flow coverage, thrombosis will form. Foundry losses are that leaking branch—if not sutured, it will continuously consume systemic blood volume and eventually drag the whole heart into low cardiac output.
I have handled too many such cases: families holding the transferred monitoring report asking if discharge is possible, while I only care if troponin has dropped back to baseline. Revenue guidance is like a person’s blood pressure; narrowing foundry losses is their tissue perfusion. Beautiful blood pressure with cold extremities is a typical compensatory illusion, the easiest to fool non-professionals.
The neighboring bed’s ticker called $xNFLX is essentially carried along by the same hemodynamics. It doesn’t produce its own heartbeat; its rhythm fluctuates synchronously with every contraction of the main heart. Once the main heart exposed an anastomotic leak during the open-chest surgery after market close on October 29, the linked ticker’s pulse will first become irregular—not due to its own pathology, but stress-induced tachycardia following perfusion pressure collapse. What these patients fear most is never the bleeding volume, but blood pressure fluctuations during anesthesia recovery.
My judgment is simple: whether 18A can deliver effective blood flow on schedule determines if this heart goes to the recovery room or back to the ICU. Data center growth is contractility; foundry loss reduction is valve closure; no matter how good the contractility, if the valve doesn’t close tightly, blood will still reflux.
The hemostat is still in my hand. #intelq3terafabfoundry$SOL touched 295.6 during the week of 2025-01-13, which was the highest point of this cycle. The closing price on 10-26 was 101.44, a 66% drop from the peak. This decline is considered moderately large in SOL's history, but not the deepest.
From November to December 2022, SOL dropped to a low of 7.77, the lowest point after the FTX collapse. If we count from the previous high of 260 in November 2021, that was a 97% drop, almost to zero. In comparison, the current drop from 295 to 101 is 66%, which is painful but not the worst.
In the 2020 to 2022 cycle, SOL also dropped about 80% from its highest to lowest point. Each cycle's retracement varies, but SOL's retracement has always been larger than BTC's. BTC usually retraces between 60%-70% from its peak, while SOL often exceeds 70%. This time, 66% is considered moderate.
A drop from 295 to 101 is 66%, which means to rise back from 101 to 295 requires a 194% increase. Many people think "a 66% drop means a 66% rise to get back," but this is wrong. The deeper the drop, the larger the percentage increase needed to recover.
At the current 101, there are two mindsets. One is "I didn't sell at 295, so I definitely can't sell at 101, I'll wait for it to rise back." The other is "101 is 12 times higher than 7.77 in December 2022, so this level isn't low anymore." $ZEC The market situation looks awkward. The open interest surged by 24%, but the price was only pulled up by 12%, and the CVD is still trending negative. Bulls are enduring high interest rates to hold on, but the main players have actually quietly distributed their chips during this rebound. This market propped up by high interest rates will face a stampede sell-off once the funds dry up.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇This set of positions cannot be simply interpreted as "whales collectively bearish." The simultaneous shorting of three coins, full position mode, and liquidation prices far above the current price resemble basis arbitrage or hedging positions collecting positive funding rates, rather than pure naked shorts.
BTC shorts have an unrealized loss of about $10.77 million but funding income of $3.09 million; ETH shorts have an unrealized loss of $1.75 million but funding income of $4.23 million; SOL shorts have an unrealized loss of $5.12 million but funding income of $3.8 million. This indicates price pressure, but the funding rate side still provides a buffer. As long as the funding rate remains positive, shorts can continuously "collect rent" from longs, which is a key reason institutions still dare to hold shorts during a rising market.
The risks are: first, if the funding rate turns negative, shorts switch from receiving money to paying money, breaking the position logic; second, if prices continue to rise, expanding unrealized losses may trigger margin calls or position reductions; third, if these shorts close positions en masse, it will create short-covering buying pressure, amplifying a short-term rebound.
Therefore, seeing "whales shorting" should not be directly understood as a crash signal. More worth monitoring is whether the funding rate remains positive, whether ETF capital flows recover, and whether these short positions reduce or cover margin. The above is only data interpretation and does not constitute investment advice.
$ETH For $ETH ETH today, I am more optimistic about the side with the limit orders.
There was an active sell-off of 20 million USD, but positions increased by 55 million, funding rates are hovering around zero, and the price is still near 2327.
Despite a whole day of selling, there was no new low; more people are buying at the bottom than the shorts expect. The ones who should be worried are the newly opened short positions today, with costs stuck in the 2290 to 2365 range. Any sudden sharp rise will force them to step on each other to exit. There are plenty of reasons to be bearish on ETH, but chasing shorts in this kind of market has a poor risk-reward ratio. #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
This Wednesday, the earnings reports of the three major companies (Google, Microsoft, Amazon) will be the market's focus. Besides growth, more attention will be paid to cash flow and capital expenditure, but it is expected that capital expenditure will rise. No one wants to fall behind in the new cloud competition.
Will the earnings reports and guidance from the three major companies cause a V-shaped rebound in US stocks? I think the key is to wait for the shoe to drop because the bad news is basically almost all out. "The worsening situation in the Middle East causing oil prices to rise + previous cpippi exceeding expectations + AI cloud companies' bond repayment ability being fud" have all already appeared. Today Elon Musk also started fud (risk warning). Is there anything worse?
Back to fundamentals, there is still a shortage of cards, data centers, and storage. Demand remains tight but stock volatility is huge, which is nothing more than changes in expectations. To be conservative, you can wait until this week's earnings reports are out and the FOMC ends before buying some fundamentally sound stocks. I have already started buying my first positions in nbis/nvda/meta, buying in batches. Ethereum is currently going through its toughest phase. It has been the largest single liquidation target for three consecutive days on the liquidation leaderboard, with 6.97 million yesterday and 4.77 million the day before. Each time, the longs were wiped out, indicating that there is too much leverage betting on a rebound at this level. Technically, 2350 has already been broken; the next support is at 2250, and if that breaks, it will be 2100. On the fundamentals side, there is a piece of positive news: AI agents participated in the rescue work of the Glamsterdam fork. This detail is quite interesting, showing that Ethereum's development process has started to be assisted by AI, but technological progress cannot save the short-term price. What Ethereum lacks now is not narrative but capital. As long as ETFs continue to see outflows, it won't outperform Bitcoin.My judgment on the $BTC cycle is very clear: the bear market is over, and we have now entered a structurally complex early bull phase.
Rather than repeatedly debating "whether the bottom has been reached," I am more concerned about why the early bull phase is still experiencing fluctuations and pullbacks?
Glassnode's 45 cycle indicators provide a clue: by the end of June, 82% fell into the historical "extremely cold" zone; by the week of October 5, 56% returned to neutral, while the warm and hot zones combined still accounted for less than 20%. This indicates that the indicators as a whole are moving away from extreme lows but are far from entering full exuberance.
The realized market cap share of BTC moving in the last 3 months has risen to about 21%. The structure of younger coins has somewhat recovered, but this does not equate to net inflows of new funds, nor does it guarantee a sharp price increase.
My core view is: leaving the bear market does not mean immediately entering the main upward wave. $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 A replenishment of 9.21 million USDC at midnight pulled a long whale holding $397 million back from the edge of the cliff — but what’s really worth watching is not how much more it added, but that ETH’s liquidation price was forcibly pushed down from $2256 to $2181. $ETH once dipped to $2282, leaving only about $100 buffer to the new liquidation price; this is not an attack, it’s defense. The on-chain analyst Yu Jin tracked this address holding 115,473 $ETH (about $272 million, liquidation price $2181) and 1,539.5 $BTC (about $124 million, liquidation price $70,396). The key insight is: margin replenishment does not change direction, it only buys time. If the $272 million ETH long position is liquidated, the impact will directly transmit to spot and futures markets, and the $70,396 BTC defense line is also a dark line that must be watched. The market most easily underestimates the signal significance of this kind of “passive defensive whale.” Retail investors see the whale still adding funds and thus assume the bottom is stable; but the fact is, the longs need constant blood transfusions to maintain their positions, indicating the downside risk is not eliminated, only postponed. This is a typical leverage structure vulnerability — the closer the price is to the liquidation concentration zone, the higher the probability of amplified volatility. The linkage between $BTC and $ETH is especially sensitive at this moment; any spike could trigger a chain reaction. My judgment is: $2200 is the emotional threshold, $2181 is the structural threshold. The former determines the narrative, the latterIn the past six months, the average cost for people buying BTC has risen to 76,000, with unrealized gains grinding down from 8.7% last week to 5.9%. The price dropped about 1,000, but the cost rose about 1,100, making it obviously tougher for those who bought in later. But 76,000 is still far from this current trade, and I won’t use it as an excuse to keep adding longs around 80,000. Long-term holders have a cost basis of only 48,600; they can afford to wait, but I don’t plan to hold this short-term position that long.
Based on the current instant noodles (market conditions), I still prefer to wait for a pullback to add longs. The 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80,167; it was pushed down and then pulled back this morning. Now I want to see if the 80,150–80,200 range can hold. I’ll pause here and try a small position; if it falls below 79,800, I’ll admit I was wrong. I’ll take partial profits at 80,800, and the rest I’ll test around 81,000—don’t get greedy thinking you can reach 82,000 right after making some gains. Damn, the previous rebounds were just like this: when it rises, you think the profit is too little; when it falls back, you hesitate to sell.
Right now, the last thing I want to do is chase above 80,400 and comfort myself with the 76,000 cost line. If 80,000 is lost again, the reason to add longs here weakens, so I’ll exit first. If it really falls to 79,300–79,200, I won’t just hang on to add; it’s easy to get stuck near the previous low, so I’ll see if it can pull back. Conversely, if it can’t break through 80,800–81,000 again, I’ll consider switching to shorting for a short-term trade, exiting above 81,300 and covering near 80,200. The Federal Reserve meeting is on the 27th–28th this week, so I don’t want to hold positions too long for now.Will Bitcoin's "digital gold" consensus shatter? Don't be quick to shake your head; what you really need to watch is where the money is shifting. The "faith wavering" you see—could it actually be that capital preferences are quietly changing seats? Over the past couple of days, looking through the order books of BTC, ETH, and several altcoins, I haven't been so concerned about "when quantum computing will arrive." That narrative is too distant, more like a risk poster hanging on the wall. What really made me pause is this: the market is currently trading not on whether Bitcoin will go to zero, but on whether risk appetite is still willing to pay a premium for the "old story."✨ The original text lists seven points: technology, governance, lack of intrinsic value, halving budget, regulation, cycles, and a dialectical conclusion. It sounds comprehensive but can easily mislead people into thinking "BTC is doomed." My own understanding is that it speaks to the long-term fragility of consensus, not a short-term price script. These two things are very different. Let's look at the facts first: BTC's signatures rely on ECDSA over secp256k1. Once quantum algorithms mature, old addresses with exposed public keys indeed face the risk of being reverse-engineered, involving millions of coins. The difficulty isn't "whether there is a quantum-resistant solution," but coordination: developers, miners, exchanges, whales, wallets—there is no unified entity to make a final decision. A hard fork freezing old addresses would touch on "private keys as property rights"; not doing so might mean watching assets being unlocked. This contradiction is real. But from the perspective of capital preference, I would ask one more question: has the market priced in this risk in advance? So far, it hasn't. ETF channels, corporate balance sheets, and institutional custody are still pushing BTC toward "allocatable" In the same market conditions, BTC, ETH, and CORE have diverged, indicating that the current crypto market is no longer "rising and falling together," but rather that capital quality, narrative strength, and leverage structure are being repriced.
BTC remains a safe-haven anchor. Despite pressure from macro headwinds, ETF outflows, and leverage liquidations, its market cap dominance has risen to 60%, showing that capital is still concentrating in the safest liquidity center. ETH, on the other hand, reveals high beta and capital weaknesses: continuous ETF net outflows, with rebounds driven more by short covering than new buying; the weakening ETH/BTC ratio indicates institutional capital prefers BTC's "digital gold" narrative. CORE, as a BTCFi asset, is more elastic but its pricing depends more on ecosystem buybacks, staking flywheels, and BTCFi hype, making it more susceptible to amplified volatility from large holders' positions and sentiment when capital depth is insufficient.
In practice, it is currently unwise to simply interpret this divergence as "who is stronger," but rather to watch three signals: whether BTC can hold key support, whether ETH ETFs resume net inflows, and whether CORE ecosystem revenue buybacks materialize. BTC determines direction, ETH determines risk appetite, and CORE determines elasticity. Positioning is better suited to using BTC as a benchmark, confirming ETH ETF inflows, and CORE only for small positions tracking the narrative, avoiding excessive leverage in low liquidity.
$BTC $ETH BTC short-term holders' unrealized profits are declining; will the $76,000 cost line be breached?
Currently, BTC short-term holders with holding periods under 6 months have an average cost of about $76,000. If the price continues to fall, they may turn from profit to loss.
I judge that the likelihood of the short-term $76,000 cost line being effectively broken is low; BTC is more likely to fluctuate around $80,000.
My basis:
1. The current price is about 79.8k, still about 5% above 76k, with multiple supports above including ETF/Treasury cost (81–81.5k) and True Market Mean (about 77.5–78k). Breaking below would require continuous volume expansion.
2. Although unrealized profits have narrowed to 5.9%, the overall profitable state has not been broken since mid-August. History shows that after a brief pullback, prices often recover rather than immediately turning into widespread unrealized losses.
3. The continuous buying pushing up costs itself indicates demand; the Fed is very likely to maintain rates this week, and the macro environment lacks strong downward catalysts, so the market tends to digest and then move sideways.
4. Around 80k has been tested multiple times forming short-term equilibrium; after volatility compression, it is easier to first fluctuate rather than break unilaterally.
Trading advice: sell high and buy low near $80,000.
Lightly buy on a pullback to 79.5k, reduce positions on a rebound to 81–81.5k; if it breaks through 81.5k, target 82k; if it falls below 79k, wait and see.
Keep position control within 30%, and wait for clear signals after this week's Fed and PCE before increasing exposure. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BCH
Smaller pullback, are established assets beginning to gain safe-haven preference?
In this morning's spot snapshot, BCH's 24-hour price change was -0.50%, ranging between 270.5—282.9 USDT.
The decline is less than BTC's, indicating relatively stable performance this time, but payment tokens still belong to risk assets. Business use cases and short-term capital choices should not be conflated.
If the market continues to test lows while maintaining an advantage, evidence of resilience increases; if the rebound lags and is followed by a catch-up drop, it is not appropriate to label a single resistance to decline as a safe-haven attribute.The crash is straightforward. One cut clears the leverage, and the market becomes cleaner. What you really need to guard against is another kind of movement: the price rubbing back and forth at key levels, slowly draining your position through funding rates. Look at the current structure. BTC is around 80,400, down 4.37% over 30 days; ETH is at 2,331, down 13.35% over 30 days; SOL is at 101.6, down 16.59% over 30 days📉. The candlesticks are 30-minute intervals, with rebound bullish candles one after another, looking like a recovery. But if you extend the timeframe, the monthly declines for BTC and ETH have not been reversed by these few bullish candles. What’s more worth noting is the small print below: the bulls are paying. In the past 24 hours, crypto market liquidation volume ranged between $117 million and $133 million, with long positions accounting for 70%–80%, about $80 million to $106 million of bullish bets forcibly liquidated. Ethereum leads in liquidations, with ETH position liquidations between $39 million and $54 million, the largest single liquidation being an ETH long position of about $7 million. And ETH’s funding rate, despite the price dropping more than 8%, remains positive (+0.0008%). What does this mean? The bulls are not scared off and continue to pay to hold their positions. SOL is the same. Open interest is about $4.5 billion, with long accounts once reaching as high as 76.1%, but The "Leverage Hidden Risk" in PT Cycles: Behind High Yields, Why Is the Buffer Space Reduced to Just a Thin Layer?
Pendle's PT is often regarded as "fixed income," but once leverage is cycled in the lending market, even minor fluctuations can trigger massive liquidations.
Take $PENDLE's PT-reUSD as an example. In August 2026, the PT price dropped by only about 3%, yet it triggered approximately $36.39 million in liquidations on $MORPHO. This is not a protocol flaw but the result of some borrowers maxing out their cyclical leverage, compressing the liquidation buffer to less than 3%. When the safety cushion becomes paper-thin, even slight fluctuations can break through directly.
In response, $AAVE has advanced a proposal to extend the maturity of PT positions to February 2027 (by repaying old loans and opening new ones through flash loans). This alleviates the hard liquidation pressure but does not eliminate the high leverage risk.
As the main platform, MORPHO employs a conservative oracle design (taking the lower value between the "15-minute average price and the maturity convergence curve"), but it still cannot save positions with actively maxed-out leverage.
💡 Conclusion:
Holding PT spot until maturity is safe, but "repeated collateralization" with cyclical leverage is by no means a safety cushion. The more cycles, the thinner the buffer. When reviewing Pendle strategies, don't just focus on APY; first check the leverage multiple and liquidation buffer. When the buffer is exhausted, the principal will be liquidated as well.The official website still has the withdrawal portal up, but people are already running out.
Blast reached the regular withdrawal deadline today, with about 40.41 million USD left on the official cross-chain bridge, which is over 30% less than in early October.
The reason for shutting down the network was stated politely: operating costs exceed revenue, and no self-sustaining path could be found.
But the money didn’t follow the polite explanation. After this, if you want to withdraw, you have to interact with the bridge contract on Ethereum yourself—initiate withdrawal, submit a state proof, wait for a one-day challenge period, then add a final confirmation transaction. Ordinary people probably won’t click that OptimismPortal 👀
$BTC
$ETH Capital aspect: The quality of the ETF's "weekly positive turnaround" needs to be discounted
Last week (October 19-23), the Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of about $301 million, ending the previous two consecutive weeks of outflows. However, the internal structure of this "positive turnaround" is unhealthy:
· On October 22 alone, there was an outflow of $137.9 million, accounting for the majority of the $1.07 billion inflow over two days.
· The cumulative net outflow for October is still about $314 million; the weekly positive turnaround is merely a repair of the previous severe outflows, not a trend of capital returning.
Another divergence worth noting: Over the past 30 days, retail investors' net BTC inflow to major exchanges doubled from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, hitting a six-month high; meanwhile, whales' net inflow dropped from $5.9 billion to $3.8 billion. KuCoin interprets this as— the surge in retail funds provides short-term support, but if its nature is to reduce positions during the rebound, selling pressure above will gradually emerge as prices rebound. In other words, the current "support" may contain a large amount of chips waiting to be freed, rather than firmly bullish funds.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The latest Glassnode spot CVD data is worth a close study. CVD measures the strength of active buying and selling: a positive value indicates buyers are more eager, while a negative value indicates sellers are more eager. In 2025, the 30-day average CVD across all exchanges was about negative $4.2 billion, and it never turned positive for a single day throughout the year! This indicates that active selling dominated for a long time, especially Binance, which contributed a large amount of selling pressure. But changes have already appeared! In the last 90 days, the average negative pressure has narrowed to less than one-tenth of the 2025 level. Note! A weakening selling pressure does not mean that buying has taken over the market. The latest data shows that Coinbase, Binance, and all exchanges' CVD have simultaneously fallen back below the zero line. This means that although the market has improved somewhat, active buying still lacks sustainability. My cycle judgment remains unchanged: BTC has entered the early bull phase, but the early bull phase does not mean the main upward wave has started immediately. Consolidation, pullbacks, and chip reshuffling are all processes that a complex early bull phase may experience. The key question around $80,000 now is not whether sellers still have chips, but whether buyers can continue to absorb them. Sellers are no longer in such a hurry, but buyers also seem reluctant to open their wallets. This long and short game in the early bull phase has just entered a critical stage! $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Retail investors sent 10.75 billion to Binance in 30 days, while whales only have 3.8 billion left
◆BTC | Sell pressure is from retail investors
BTC is now 80,408, up 0.07% in 24 hours, high 80,952, low 79,369, touched 80,575 in the evening, holding above 80,400. CryptoQuant's Darkfost data today: retail investors' BTC sent to Binance in 30 days rose from 5.5 billion to 10.75 billion, a six-month high; whales dropped from 5.9 billion to 3.8 billion in the same period. Retrace to 80,300–80,400 hourly line to stabilize and connect, close above 80,575 aiming for 80,952; close below 80,000 withdraw, close below 79,368 invalidates.
◆ETH | Old whales only sent 1,500 coins
ETH is now 2,330, up 0.06% in 24 hours, high 2,365, low 2,293. Today, 2015 ICO old whales moved 5,000 coins within 2 hours, only 1,500 coins entered exchanges, about 3.45 million USD, compared to 169,770 coins net outflow in a single day a few days ago, not even the same scale. Reclaim 2,340 to look at 2,365, retrace to 2,310–2,330 to stabilize and connect; close below 2,293 exit.
Sell pressure is in retail investors' hands, whales have not let go yet.$BTC
BTC is now hovering around 80400, climbing back above 80,000 after four consecutive weekly declines. The 24-hour low was 79377; honestly, it hasn't fully stabilized yet.
What concerns me more is that Galaxy's figure: 11.1 million BTC addresses are of unknown ownership. With a 21 million cap, more than half are unaccounted for. I was stunned for a few seconds when I first saw this number.
The Federal Reserve meeting is early Wednesday morning; before the 80,000 level settles, there will likely be back-and-forth fluctuations. Whether to take a side or not, I'll wait for it to move first.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH is now at 2330, down more than half from the high of 4946 last August. The monthly chart is down 13%, the weekly chart down 4%, and the daily chart is being suppressed by the MA20, which looks really tough. But what I want to say is the other side: whales are withdrawing tokens below 2300, exchange withdrawals are at a high level, Lido staking volume is hitting new highs, with 35.9% of supply locked in staking — although the yield has dropped to only 2.6%. ETFs had a net outflow of 1.18 billion in October, leveraged longs were liquidated by tens of millions, these are facts. Arthur Hayes has liquidated his position, but he is a trader, not a believer, so his actions do not indicate a problem with ETH fundamentals. Money has rotated into AI, U.S. Treasuries, and other FOMC-related assets; this is rotation, not exit. JPM Coin has expanded to the Ethereum mainnet, BlackRock and JPMorgan use it as a settlement layer, and the stablecoin battlefield of 143 billion is also here. The daily RSI at 29-35 is close to oversold, MACD shows a bearish alignment but there is a nascent bullish divergence. Declines with volume and rebounds with shrinking volume is a typical weak pattern. Resistance is at 2360-2400, only above that can we look at 2450-2500; breaking below 2290 targets 2200-2280. A low-volume rebound near 2330 to 2360-2380 can be lightly shorted with a stop loss at 2400; break below 2290 with volume to chase shorts. Bulls wait for a volume-increasing bullish candle at 2300 to try again, stop loss at 2280. Glamsterdam's Hoodi testnet was delayed due to EIP security issues, which is also weighing on sentiment. Stagflation signals rising, December rate cut path becomes subtle】
To judge the next step of the ECB, besides watching CPI and meeting minutes, there is an underestimated input—the monthly Consumer Expectations Survey (CES). It covers about 19,000 households in 11 Eurozone countries and is a direct source cited in ECB policy assessments, but the market rarely focuses on it.
The data released on October 23 for September shows: the median 12-month inflation expectation of households rose to 3.1% (previous 3.0%), perceived inflation over the past 12 months rose to 3.6%; 3-year and 5-year inflation expectations remained steady at 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. The problem lies in the combined pattern: the growth expectation for the same period dropped from -1.2% to -1.5%, the 12-month unemployment rate expectation rose from 11.0% to 11.3%, and the proportion of households expecting net tightening of credit conditions continues to increase.
Rising prices, a cooling economy, and tight credit appearing simultaneously is a typical policy dilemma. It is not enough to make the ECB turn hawkish, but enough to turn the December meeting’s rate cut from "routine" to "debated." If the swap market’s pricing of the Eurozone is too dovish, there is room for correction, primarily affecting Eurozone bond yields and EUR, followed by impacting Eurozone growth stock valuations through the denominator side.
What to watch next: the October CES will be released on November 27; whether ECB officials cite "rising inflation expectations" as an argument to pause rate cuts in speeches this week is the first verification point.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 1. HBM high value-added product volume increase: HBM4 is gradually shipping, AI server demand is strong, HBM, server DRAM, and eSSD drive up overall product average selling price and profit margin, which is the largest source of profit elasticity. In Q2, management mentioned that some high value-added HBM orders were postponed to be delivered in the second half of the year, and this revenue is expected to be realized in Q3. This is exactly what I have been emphasizing: the early bull phase does not equal the main upward wave! Glassnode data shows that the cross-asset return champion in 2026 has rotated three times: ① Q1: Gold and silver led. ② Spring to July: U.S. stocks took over. ③ The last approximately 10 weeks: BTC leads in the rolling 60-day return rankings. Meanwhile, the spot trading volume of tokenized gold on crypto exchanges has fallen from the February peak to about 20%. But don't misunderstand! Leading relative returns do not mean prices only rise without falling, nor do they prove that gold funds flow directly into BTC. What really deserves attention now is the $80,300 level! Glassnode data shows that around $80,000–$81,500 is the average cost concentration of U.S. spot ETFs and some corporate treasuries. This means BTC is testing a cost zone of some important holders. My judgment remains clear: the bear market has left, the early bull phase is unfolding, but the structure is still complex, with volatility, pullbacks, and rotation inevitable. Holding $80,000 and forming effective support is beneficial for subsequently challenging the $85,000–$87,500 supply zone; if the daily chart breaks below, be wary of further testing near $77,600. The early bull phase does not mean no pullbacks, but whether demand can retake the market after pullbacks! This time, what do you think about the test near $80,000? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重$BTC profit retracement, increased holding cost, should you continue holding????
CryptoQuant analyst: The average cost for BTC short-term holders holding less than 6 months is about $76,000, with a current unrealized profit of about 5.9%.
In the past week, unrealized profit narrowed from 8.7% to 5.9%, BTC dropped about $1,000, but the average cost of short-term chips actually rose about $1,100.
The cost for short-term holders is 1.56 times that of long-term holders ($76,000 vs $48,600), the ratio rose from 1.54 to 1.56, mainly due to the rise in short-term cost while long-term holders' cost remained basically flat.
💥💥💥 If BTC falls below $76,000, chips bought in the past 6 months will overall turn unrealized loss; the last time this happened was in mid-August this year.
One thing to note here: the average cost is only a group mean, some investors who entered at high levels are still at a loss.
$ETH is the same, ETH profit retracement + increased holding cost, for traders holding for 6 months, the holding price is getting closer to the cost line, about to break below the cost line!
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ "Multi-chain, one coin" is not just a slogan; it is a commitment to leaving risk on the bridge.
BNB Chain confirmed in its technical documentation update on October 22 that a brand new Layer 1 (officially codenamed New L1) will run in parallel with the existing BSC, compatible with EVM, targeting a block interval of 200 milliseconds and transaction pre-confirmation around 20 milliseconds. It will not issue new tokens; BNB will continue to serve the three functions of Gas, staking, and governance. The testnet is targeted for the end of 2026, and the mainnet for early 2027. On October 25, Zhao Changpeng set the tone with the phrase "Multiple chains, one coins." My judgment is that this is not a narrative upgrade aimed at retail investors but a defensive architectural restructuring—it aims to capture the territory of high-frequency trading and AI agents, rather than telling another "new public chain" story. For this reason, it will not change BNB's price trajectory in the short term but will shift the ecosystem's largest single point of risk from the consensus layer to the cross-chain bridge. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $BNB $BTC $ETH #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？
Many people think that once the shipping lanes reopen, oil prices will quickly fall, but the reality is not so. Transport recovery ≠ elimination of geopolitical risks; this is the core logic of the current crude oil market.
Although tanker traffic has warmed up, the deep-rooted conflicts among Middle Eastern parties remain unresolved. The market continuously prices in the potential disruption risk of the Strait of Hormuz, so the geopolitical premium still exists. Additionally, global crude inventories remain generally low, and refined product supply is tight. If a sudden disturbance occurs, it is difficult to quickly fill the gap. Coupled with rising shipping insurance and freight costs, the overall crude oil trade cost is pushed higher.
My view: In the short term, supply and demand fundamentals ease, but risk premiums are unlikely to clear all at once. High oil prices will continue to support inflation expectations, indirectly suppressing risk assets, and the crypto market will also continue to be disturbed by macroeconomic expectations.
Contract strategy: Do not blindly short crude oil just based on the news of shipping lane reopening. The high-level oscillation pattern means chasing longs is risky; wait for geopolitical sentiment to cool down and inventories to continue rising before considering short opportunities, strictly use stop-losses, and control position size. There are only three days left until the interest rate meeting, and right now I feel that neither the bulls nor the bears dare to hold positions until the meeting ends. The main issue is that I don't really know what the narrative around $BTC is right now.
The previous logic was anti-inflation, digital gold; in the past, when interest rates rose, $BTC actually surged strongly. Later, it became no different from other financial instruments—whenever rates went up, liquidity was immediately drained!
This year is even stranger. When rates rose in September, $BTC once again rose against the trend. But when the market started expecting further rate hikes, Bitcoin began a sharp decline plus a slow downtrend these past few days.
So when some brothers asked me whether to hold their positions until the interest rate meeting day, I can only say that if it were me, I probably wouldn’t. The market is just too chaotic; both long and short positions can be reasonably justified here.
It’s even possible that near the end of the year, with the midterm elections coming, there could be a big shakeout hitting both bulls and bears, making it tough for us to even get through the year.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Apple's New CEO Faces the First Performance Report for iPhone 18 After the U.S. market closes on November 2, Apple will release its FY2026 Q4 earnings report. This earnings report is packed with key points: first is the initial sales of the iPhone 18 Pro series, which is the first major "test" performance report since the new CEO John Ternus took office. The market is watching closely; on one hand, there is concern that rising storage costs will eat into profits, and on the other, fear that Apple might fall behind in the AI race. Looking at the market, tokenized Apple stocks AAPL and xAAPL both dipped about 1%, showing clear risk aversion ahead of the earnings report. My personal view is that Apple is currently in a very awkward "transition" period. The supply chain and hardware foundation left from the Cook era are still intact, so the phones will definitely still sell, but the market's biggest fear is that there will be "no surprises." With the world aggressively pushing AI large models, if Apple's AI progress remains limited to patching up Siri, Wall Street will definitely not buy it. The new CEO John Ternus comes from a hardware background; whether he can present a convincing AI strategy at the earnings call will directly determine Apple's upcoming valuation logic. Investors are very pragmatic now—no rabbit, no hawk release—and the slight dip in the market is the best proof. What impact will this have? In the short term, it is more about the transmission of macro sentiment. As a global tech stock bellwether, if Apple's earnings report bombs or the outlook for new products is pessimistic, it will directly suppress risk appetite in the U.S. tech sector. Once this cold wind blowsMy judgment on the BTC cycle is very clear: the bear market is over, and now we have entered a structurally complex early bull phase.
Rather than repeatedly debating "whether the bottom has been reached," I am more concerned about why the early bull phase is still experiencing fluctuations and pullbacks?
Glassnode's 45 cycle indicators provide a clue: by the end of June, 82% fell into the historical "extreme cold" zone; by the week of October 5, 56% returned to neutral, while the warm and hot zones combined still accounted for less than 20%. This indicates that the indicators as a whole are moving away from extreme lows but are far from entering full exuberance.
Looking at the previous chart: the realized market cap share of BTC moving in the last 3 months has risen to about 21%. The structure of younger coins has somewhat recovered, but this does not equal net inflow of new funds, nor does it guarantee a sharp price increase.
My core view is: leaving the bear market does not mean immediately entering the main upward wave.
The early bull phase is often accompanied by repeated turnover, digestion of selling pressure, and multiple pullbacks. Short-term declines will not automatically overturn the cycle judgment; what really needs caution is if the support after pullbacks continues to weaken and capital demand cannot recover.
Going forward, I am more focused on whether the pullback can hold key structures and whether cycle indicators can continue to expand from neutral to the warm zone. The bull has already entered, but it is just not yet ready to sprint 100 meters.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 PREDICT was listed pre-market by two exchanges within a week: On October 21, Aster listed the perpetual contract pre-market, and on October 25, Binance listed the PREDICTUSDT pre-market contract with 5x leverage and a total supply of 1 billion tokens.
The pre-market reference price is 1.63U, equivalent to a 1.63 billion FDV. I think 2 to 3 billion is the most realistic, while 5 billion depends on the market conditions.
More importantly is the allocation ratio. With the same 3B valuation, holding 5% in S1 versus 15% can make each PP's value differ by six times.
The League of Legends finals end on November 15; I guess the TGE will be in late November. PREDICT's pre-market contracts have been listed on two exchanges within a week.
On October 21, Aster launched PREDICT pre-market perpetual contracts, and on October 25, Binance also announced the launch of PREDICTUSDT pre-market contracts with up to 5x leverage. The total supply stated in the announcement is 1 billion tokens. The two exchanges listing pre-market contracts back-to-back basically means the project team is paving the way for the TGE.
The third-party pre-market reference price is currently 1.63U; multiplying by 1 billion tokens equals a $1.63 billion FDV. If the opening price reaches 2 billion, the token price would be 2U; 3 billion corresponds to 3U; 5 billion corresponds to 5U. I think 2 to 3 billion is the most realistic, while 5 billion would require strong market conditions and capital support.
But what really determines the actual returns is not the FDV, but how the tokens are distributed. Assuming S1 accumulates close to 500 million PP points, if S1 holds 5%, each PP would be about 0.16U; with 15%, it could reach 0.9U. For the same 3B valuation, that's a sixfold difference. So the allocation ratio is much more important than guessing the FDV.
In terms of timing, the League of Legends World Championship ends on November 15, with a $250,000 treasure chest event prize redemption after the match. I lean towards a TGE in late November, no later than before Christmas.
All of the above are scenario estimates; the actual outcome depends on the final Tokenomics, unlock ratio, and spot opening price.$MKR
Maker’s evolution into the Sky ecosystem raises an important question about token identity and economic value. A rebrand or governance transition can change how investors assess a protocol, but it does not automatically create stronger demand. The real test is whether the ecosystem’s lending activity, stablecoin adoption, and governance mechanisms translate into sustainable value for its token holders.The average cost of BTC held for less than 6 months is approximately $76,000, with the current price about 5.9% higher than this cost. Over the past week, the unrealized profit margin for this group narrowed from 8.7% to 5.9%, while BTC's price dropped by about $1,000 and their average holding cost rose by about $1,100. Data shows that the average cost of BTC held for less than 6 months is about 1.56 times that of BTC held for more than 6 months, at $76,000 and $48,600 respectively. This ratio increased from 1.54 to 1.56, mainly driven by the rise in average cost among short-term holders, while the average cost for long-term holders remained basically unchanged. If BTC falls below $76,000, the BTC bought in the past 6 months will overall turn to unrealized losses. The last time this happened was in mid-August this year. It should be noted that the average cost does not mean all recent buyers are in profit; some investors who bought at higher prices may still face losses. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC ZEC, you're jumping around here again, are you holding back some earth-shattering news?
The group is spreading rumors about Grayscale ETF inflows and some NU7 upgrade.
I just stared at the order book for a long time and almost laughed out loud. It surged to 1238, and then?
It softened without a single fart, sliding back down to 1216 like a weak shrimp.
Take a close look at the recent candlesticks' orders, it's disgusting.
As soon as the price dares to poke its head up, thousands of sell orders immediately crash down, forcibly pushing it back.
This is not a bullish takeoff; it's clearly the main players hanging a bullish front while selling the dog meat they hold!