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$ETH is now at 2330, down more than half from the high of 4946 last August. The monthly chart is down 13%, the weekly chart down 4%, and the daily chart is being suppressed by the MA20, which looks really tough. But what I want to say is the other side: whales are withdrawing tokens below 2300, exchange withdrawals are at a high level, Lido staking volume is hitting new highs, with 35.9% of supply locked in staking — although the yield has dropped to only 2.6%. ETFs had a net outflow of 1.18 billion in October, leveraged longs were liquidated by tens of millions, these are facts. Arthur Hayes has liquidated his position, but he is a trader, not a believer, so his actions do not indicate a problem with ETH fundamentals. Money has rotated into AI, U.S. Treasuries, and other FOMC-related assets; this is rotation, not exit. JPM Coin has expanded to the Ethereum mainnet, BlackRock and JPMorgan use it as a settlement layer, and the stablecoin battlefield of 143 billion is also here. The daily RSI at 29-35 is close to oversold, MACD shows a bearish alignment but there is a nascent bullish divergence. Declines with volume and rebounds with shrinking volume is a typical weak pattern. Resistance is at 2360-2400, only above that can we look at 2450-2500; breaking below 2290 targets 2200-2280. A low-volume rebound near 2330 to 2360-2380 can be lightly shorted with a stop loss at 2400; break below 2290 with volume to chase shorts. Bulls wait for a volume-increasing bullish candle at 2300 to try again, stop loss at 2280. Glamsterdam's Hoodi testnet was delayed due to EIP security issues, which is also weighing on sentiment. Stagflation signals rising, December rate cut path becomes subtle】
To judge the next step of the ECB, besides watching CPI and meeting minutes, there is an underestimated input—the monthly Consumer Expectations Survey (CES). It covers about 19,000 households in 11 Eurozone countries and is a direct source cited in ECB policy assessments, but the market rarely focuses on it.
The data released on October 23 for September shows: the median 12-month inflation expectation of households rose to 3.1% (previous 3.0%), perceived inflation over the past 12 months rose to 3.6%; 3-year and 5-year inflation expectations remained steady at 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. The problem lies in the combined pattern: the growth expectation for the same period dropped from -1.2% to -1.5%, the 12-month unemployment rate expectation rose from 11.0% to 11.3%, and the proportion of households expecting net tightening of credit conditions continues to increase.
Rising prices, a cooling economy, and tight credit appearing simultaneously is a typical policy dilemma. It is not enough to make the ECB turn hawkish, but enough to turn the December meeting’s rate cut from "routine" to "debated." If the swap market’s pricing of the Eurozone is too dovish, there is room for correction, primarily affecting Eurozone bond yields and EUR, followed by impacting Eurozone growth stock valuations through the denominator side.
What to watch next: the October CES will be released on November 27; whether ECB officials cite "rising inflation expectations" as an argument to pause rate cuts in speeches this week is the first verification point.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 1. HBM high value-added product volume increase: HBM4 is gradually shipping, AI server demand is strong, HBM, server DRAM, and eSSD drive up overall product average selling price and profit margin, which is the largest source of profit elasticity. In Q2, management mentioned that some high value-added HBM orders were postponed to be delivered in the second half of the year, and this revenue is expected to be realized in Q3. This is exactly what I have been emphasizing: the early bull phase does not equal the main upward wave! Glassnode data shows that the cross-asset return champion in 2026 has rotated three times: ① Q1: Gold and silver led. ② Spring to July: U.S. stocks took over. ③ The last approximately 10 weeks: BTC leads in the rolling 60-day return rankings. Meanwhile, the spot trading volume of tokenized gold on crypto exchanges has fallen from the February peak to about 20%. But don't misunderstand! Leading relative returns do not mean prices only rise without falling, nor do they prove that gold funds flow directly into BTC. What really deserves attention now is the $80,300 level! Glassnode data shows that around $80,000–$81,500 is the average cost concentration of U.S. spot ETFs and some corporate treasuries. This means BTC is testing a cost zone of some important holders. My judgment remains clear: the bear market has left, the early bull phase is unfolding, but the structure is still complex, with volatility, pullbacks, and rotation inevitable. Holding $80,000 and forming effective support is beneficial for subsequently challenging the $85,000–$87,500 supply zone; if the daily chart breaks below, be wary of further testing near $77,600. The early bull phase does not mean no pullbacks, but whether demand can retake the market after pullbacks! This time, what do you think about the test near $80,000? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重$BTC profit retracement, increased holding cost, should you continue holding????
CryptoQuant analyst: The average cost for BTC short-term holders holding less than 6 months is about $76,000, with a current unrealized profit of about 5.9%.
In the past week, unrealized profit narrowed from 8.7% to 5.9%, BTC dropped about $1,000, but the average cost of short-term chips actually rose about $1,100.
The cost for short-term holders is 1.56 times that of long-term holders ($76,000 vs $48,600), the ratio rose from 1.54 to 1.56, mainly due to the rise in short-term cost while long-term holders' cost remained basically flat.
💥💥💥 If BTC falls below $76,000, chips bought in the past 6 months will overall turn unrealized loss; the last time this happened was in mid-August this year.
One thing to note here: the average cost is only a group mean, some investors who entered at high levels are still at a loss.
$ETH is the same, ETH profit retracement + increased holding cost, for traders holding for 6 months, the holding price is getting closer to the cost line, about to break below the cost line!
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ "Multi-chain, one coin" is not just a slogan; it is a commitment to leaving risk on the bridge.
BNB Chain confirmed in its technical documentation update on October 22 that a brand new Layer 1 (officially codenamed New L1) will run in parallel with the existing BSC, compatible with EVM, targeting a block interval of 200 milliseconds and transaction pre-confirmation around 20 milliseconds. It will not issue new tokens; BNB will continue to serve the three functions of Gas, staking, and governance. The testnet is targeted for the end of 2026, and the mainnet for early 2027. On October 25, Zhao Changpeng set the tone with the phrase "Multiple chains, one coins." My judgment is that this is not a narrative upgrade aimed at retail investors but a defensive architectural restructuring—it aims to capture the territory of high-frequency trading and AI agents, rather than telling another "new public chain" story. For this reason, it will not change BNB's price trajectory in the short term but will shift the ecosystem's largest single point of risk from the consensus layer to the cross-chain bridge. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $BNB $BTC $ETH #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？
Many people think that once the shipping lanes reopen, oil prices will quickly fall, but the reality is not so. Transport recovery ≠ elimination of geopolitical risks; this is the core logic of the current crude oil market.
Although tanker traffic has warmed up, the deep-rooted conflicts among Middle Eastern parties remain unresolved. The market continuously prices in the potential disruption risk of the Strait of Hormuz, so the geopolitical premium still exists. Additionally, global crude inventories remain generally low, and refined product supply is tight. If a sudden disturbance occurs, it is difficult to quickly fill the gap. Coupled with rising shipping insurance and freight costs, the overall crude oil trade cost is pushed higher.
My view: In the short term, supply and demand fundamentals ease, but risk premiums are unlikely to clear all at once. High oil prices will continue to support inflation expectations, indirectly suppressing risk assets, and the crypto market will also continue to be disturbed by macroeconomic expectations.
Contract strategy: Do not blindly short crude oil just based on the news of shipping lane reopening. The high-level oscillation pattern means chasing longs is risky; wait for geopolitical sentiment to cool down and inventories to continue rising before considering short opportunities, strictly use stop-losses, and control position size. There are only three days left until the interest rate meeting, and right now I feel that neither the bulls nor the bears dare to hold positions until the meeting ends. The main issue is that I don't really know what the narrative around $BTC is right now.
The previous logic was anti-inflation, digital gold; in the past, when interest rates rose, $BTC actually surged strongly. Later, it became no different from other financial instruments—whenever rates went up, liquidity was immediately drained!
This year is even stranger. When rates rose in September, $BTC once again rose against the trend. But when the market started expecting further rate hikes, Bitcoin began a sharp decline plus a slow downtrend these past few days.
So when some brothers asked me whether to hold their positions until the interest rate meeting day, I can only say that if it were me, I probably wouldn’t. The market is just too chaotic; both long and short positions can be reasonably justified here.
It’s even possible that near the end of the year, with the midterm elections coming, there could be a big shakeout hitting both bulls and bears, making it tough for us to even get through the year.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Apple's New CEO Faces the First Performance Report for iPhone 18 After the U.S. market closes on November 2, Apple will release its FY2026 Q4 earnings report. This earnings report is packed with key points: first is the initial sales of the iPhone 18 Pro series, which is the first major "test" performance report since the new CEO John Ternus took office. The market is watching closely; on one hand, there is concern that rising storage costs will eat into profits, and on the other, fear that Apple might fall behind in the AI race. Looking at the market, tokenized Apple stocks AAPL and xAAPL both dipped about 1%, showing clear risk aversion ahead of the earnings report. My personal view is that Apple is currently in a very awkward "transition" period. The supply chain and hardware foundation left from the Cook era are still intact, so the phones will definitely still sell, but the market's biggest fear is that there will be "no surprises." With the world aggressively pushing AI large models, if Apple's AI progress remains limited to patching up Siri, Wall Street will definitely not buy it. The new CEO John Ternus comes from a hardware background; whether he can present a convincing AI strategy at the earnings call will directly determine Apple's upcoming valuation logic. Investors are very pragmatic now—no rabbit, no hawk release—and the slight dip in the market is the best proof. What impact will this have? In the short term, it is more about the transmission of macro sentiment. As a global tech stock bellwether, if Apple's earnings report bombs or the outlook for new products is pessimistic, it will directly suppress risk appetite in the U.S. tech sector. Once this cold wind blowsMy judgment on the BTC cycle is very clear: the bear market is over, and now we have entered a structurally complex early bull phase.
Rather than repeatedly debating "whether the bottom has been reached," I am more concerned about why the early bull phase is still experiencing fluctuations and pullbacks?
Glassnode's 45 cycle indicators provide a clue: by the end of June, 82% fell into the historical "extreme cold" zone; by the week of October 5, 56% returned to neutral, while the warm and hot zones combined still accounted for less than 20%. This indicates that the indicators as a whole are moving away from extreme lows but are far from entering full exuberance.
Looking at the previous chart: the realized market cap share of BTC moving in the last 3 months has risen to about 21%. The structure of younger coins has somewhat recovered, but this does not equal net inflow of new funds, nor does it guarantee a sharp price increase.
My core view is: leaving the bear market does not mean immediately entering the main upward wave.
The early bull phase is often accompanied by repeated turnover, digestion of selling pressure, and multiple pullbacks. Short-term declines will not automatically overturn the cycle judgment; what really needs caution is if the support after pullbacks continues to weaken and capital demand cannot recover.
Going forward, I am more focused on whether the pullback can hold key structures and whether cycle indicators can continue to expand from neutral to the warm zone. The bull has already entered, but it is just not yet ready to sprint 100 meters.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 PREDICT was listed pre-market by two exchanges within a week: On October 21, Aster listed the perpetual contract pre-market, and on October 25, Binance listed the PREDICTUSDT pre-market contract with 5x leverage and a total supply of 1 billion tokens.
The pre-market reference price is 1.63U, equivalent to a 1.63 billion FDV. I think 2 to 3 billion is the most realistic, while 5 billion depends on the market conditions.
More importantly is the allocation ratio. With the same 3B valuation, holding 5% in S1 versus 15% can make each PP's value differ by six times.
The League of Legends finals end on November 15; I guess the TGE will be in late November. PREDICT's pre-market contracts have been listed on two exchanges within a week.
On October 21, Aster launched PREDICT pre-market perpetual contracts, and on October 25, Binance also announced the launch of PREDICTUSDT pre-market contracts with up to 5x leverage. The total supply stated in the announcement is 1 billion tokens. The two exchanges listing pre-market contracts back-to-back basically means the project team is paving the way for the TGE.
The third-party pre-market reference price is currently 1.63U; multiplying by 1 billion tokens equals a $1.63 billion FDV. If the opening price reaches 2 billion, the token price would be 2U; 3 billion corresponds to 3U; 5 billion corresponds to 5U. I think 2 to 3 billion is the most realistic, while 5 billion would require strong market conditions and capital support.
But what really determines the actual returns is not the FDV, but how the tokens are distributed. Assuming S1 accumulates close to 500 million PP points, if S1 holds 5%, each PP would be about 0.16U; with 15%, it could reach 0.9U. For the same 3B valuation, that's a sixfold difference. So the allocation ratio is much more important than guessing the FDV.
In terms of timing, the League of Legends World Championship ends on November 15, with a $250,000 treasure chest event prize redemption after the match. I lean towards a TGE in late November, no later than before Christmas.
All of the above are scenario estimates; the actual outcome depends on the final Tokenomics, unlock ratio, and spot opening price.$MKR
Maker’s evolution into the Sky ecosystem raises an important question about token identity and economic value. A rebrand or governance transition can change how investors assess a protocol, but it does not automatically create stronger demand. The real test is whether the ecosystem’s lending activity, stablecoin adoption, and governance mechanisms translate into sustainable value for its token holders.The average cost of BTC held for less than 6 months is approximately $76,000, with the current price about 5.9% higher than this cost. Over the past week, the unrealized profit margin for this group narrowed from 8.7% to 5.9%, while BTC's price dropped by about $1,000 and their average holding cost rose by about $1,100. Data shows that the average cost of BTC held for less than 6 months is about 1.56 times that of BTC held for more than 6 months, at $76,000 and $48,600 respectively. This ratio increased from 1.54 to 1.56, mainly driven by the rise in average cost among short-term holders, while the average cost for long-term holders remained basically unchanged. If BTC falls below $76,000, the BTC bought in the past 6 months will overall turn to unrealized losses. The last time this happened was in mid-August this year. It should be noted that the average cost does not mean all recent buyers are in profit; some investors who bought at higher prices may still face losses. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC ZEC, you're jumping around here again, are you holding back some earth-shattering news?
The group is spreading rumors about Grayscale ETF inflows and some NU7 upgrade.
I just stared at the order book for a long time and almost laughed out loud. It surged to 1238, and then?
It softened without a single fart, sliding back down to 1216 like a weak shrimp.
Take a close look at the recent candlesticks' orders, it's disgusting.
As soon as the price dares to poke its head up, thousands of sell orders immediately crash down, forcibly pushing it back.
This is not a bullish takeoff; it's clearly the main players hanging a bullish front while selling the dog meat they hold!Global Macro Guidance from October 26 to November 1 — Fed + PCE Data Pricing in December Rate Hike, AI Giants Face Profitability Test, Super Pricing Week Arrives! If last week’s market discussion was about the probability of an October rate hike being postponed to December, this week’s core argument becomes more complex, focusing on three key directions: a, how the Fed defines no rate hike in October — is it a pause? Or a dovish shift? b, which macro data among oil prices, GDP, and PCE will become the key driver deciding whether to hike rates in December! c, AI giants’ earnings reports vs. macro pressure entering the second week — can this week’s earnings reports from the giants reverse the situation? #ThisWeekWillReleaseOctoberFOMCRateDecision In short, this week is a super week where policy + inflation + growth + AI profitability + global central banks + geopolitical energy all converge, and I believe the focus should be on three main themes. First main theme — no rate hike in October becomes the default, is the expectation of a December rate hike locked in, and will there be further hikes in the future? 1. As of now, the probability of a December rate hike has risen to around 72.4%, entering the preliminary pricing stage. 2. In the early hours of October 28 — October FOMC meeting + Wash’s speech, the focus is not on no rate hike in October, but on what policies are being laid out to pave the way for a December hike: a, will inflation risks and continued inflation rise be emphasized? Will inflation expectations be raised? b, how to evaluate the energy shock? If Wash explicitly acknowledges concerns about oil prices affecting commodities, transportation, corporate costs, and inflation expectations, then December rate hikeZEC, you're jumping up and down here again, are you hiding some earth-shattering news?
The group is spreading rumors about Grayscale ETF inflows and some NU7 upgrade.
I just stared at the order book for a long time and almost laughed out loud. It surged to 1238, and then?
It softened without a single fart, sliding back down to 1216 like a weak shrimp.
Take a close look at the recent candlesticks' orders, it's disgusting.
Whenever the price dares to poke its head up, thousands of sell orders immediately smash down from above, forcibly pushing it back.
This is not a bullish takeoff; this is clearly the main players hanging a bullish front while selling the dog meat they hold!
The funniest thing is the current retail investor sentiment. The long-short ratio is 61% to 39%, a big crowd stubbornly holding long positions. I even see people in the group shouting "Going straight to 1300 soon." Bro,
Wake up.
Do you think the dog whales put so much effort into spreading news because they care about you losing money and want to give you a New Year's red envelope?
No way. Unless they wash out and blow out this batch of longs who rushed in on the news, this rally won't move at all.
The overall trend is down. You're jumping up and down halfway up the mountain, how can you jump to the sky?
Don't get itchy to catch longs just because it can't fall now.
Every rebound now is just supplying ammo to the shorts.
As long as it can't break through the fatal 1238, it's all a show.
$BTC
$ETH
$ZEC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The messages you listed are generally positive in the long term, but tonight (October 26) the US stock and crypto markets are under short-term pressure, with price movements more influenced by macro sentiment. These fundamental news items are hard to outweigh the risk-off sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. News assessment: Mainly positive in the long term. Most of the information you provided belongs to structural positives rather than immediate selling pressure: · ETH staking hits a record (about 36%): In the long run, this signals holder confidence and reduces circulating supply; however, staked ETH is not gone and may be unlocked and sold in the future, so it should not be simply regarded as a "locked-up bullish factor." · Ethereum monthly submissions, RWA leadership, JPM Coin expansion, quantum resistance plans: All represent positive progress in ecosystem fundamentals and institutional adoption, impacting the medium to long term. · Franklin Templeton 5% Bitcoin allocation ETF: Provides a channel for traditional dividend funds to indirectly allocate BTC, representing incremental capital inflow, but the product is expected to start trading only after October 27. · BlackRock IBIT inflows and Strategy holdings: Reflect ongoing institutional allocation, but the single-week IBIT inflow is not a strong stimulus compared to previous outflows. · Hashrate recovery and Tether mining toolkit: Have limited direct short-term impact on coin prices. Tonight's US stock market: Futures slightly up but cautious tone. As of the Asia-Pacific session on October 26, US stock futures rose slightly: Dow futures up 0.34%, S&P 500 futures up 0.48%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.66%. Other data shows🧧🧧【Afternoon of 10·26｜ETH/SOL/ZEC: Three Pricing Logics】 Under the same market conditions, the three tokens show completely divergent pricing, with different choices in capital, narratives, and leverage. ETH｜Weak consensus, narrative unable to resist continuous outflows Current price 2318, slightly down, 24h liquidation volume 41.86 million ranks first among the three. Exchange net outflow of 169,000 coins, hitting a nearly four-month high; ETF cumulative outflow in October exceeds $1.2 billion, with capital withdrawing for four consecutive weeks. The launch of Hoodi testnet did not bring capital inflow, unable to hold above the 2330 level, and the so-called "bottoming expectation" in the market remains only at the narrative level. Currently, the consensus is extremely bearish; in market rotations, the weakest assets often are the last to recover. SOL｜Consolidation and accumulation, narrative present but lacking incremental buying Current price 100.97, slightly down 0.34%, liquidation 4.98 million, the lowest among the three. Spot recorded a net inflow of 5.84 million; Firedancer and Alpenglow technical narratives provide underlying support, but ETF funds have outflowed for three consecutive weeks, with nearly 72 million lost in recent months. The range holds at 100.50–100.80, market support is acceptable, but lacking marginal new funds, the trend is steady but lacks explosive power. ZEC｜The only gainer, strong narrative accompanied by high leverage risk Current price 1209.76, up 1.6%, the only rising token among the three; liquidation 5.07 million. Market cap is only one-third of SOL, leverage competition is the fiercest, current fee rate means longs continue to payThe probability of a Fed rate hike has dropped to about 10%, and the market currently leans more towards keeping rates unchanged. However, looking at it now, a lower chance of a rate hike does not necessarily mean Bitcoin will rise.
The current situation often is: excluding further rate hikes, but interest rates remain stuck at a high level.
If the Fed continues to signal a tight stance, the US dollar and US Treasury yields will still suppress risk assets. The focus next will be on guidance, spot flows, and price reactions. $BTC ETH just recorded the largest single-day net outflow in 4 months, with 169,770 tokens withdrawn from exchanges, but on the same day, a whale that hadn't moved in 11 years sent coins back.
What happened? Santiment data shows a net outflow of 169,770 ETH from exchanges, about $407 million, which on the surface is a classic bullish signal of supply contraction. However, an ancient address that bought 100,000 ETH at $0.311 during the 2015 ICO, after being dormant for 11 years, suddenly transferred out 5,000 tokens, of which 1,500 went directly to centralized exchanges.
Why is this noteworthy? Exchange net outflows are generally interpreted as "selling pressure easing," but the entry path of this ancient chip is exactly the opposite. More importantly, from October 1 to 22, ETH spot ETFs had a cumulative net outflow exceeding $1 billion, bleeding for 14 out of 16 trading days. On-chain supply is contracting, yet ETFs and the ancient whale are moving in the same direction.
Which observation does this support? It supports more the idea that "chip structure is rotating rather than a clean supply contraction." The ETH flowing out of exchanges may have gone to cold wallets or staking, but the ancient whale's deposits to exchanges represent real potential sellable supply.
Next thing to watch: Will the remaining 3,500 ETH also enter exchanges? If so, the bullish narrative built on the 169,770 net outflow will be discounted. Do you think this ancient whale is just "reallocating positions," or is it really preparing to sell? Let's discuss in the comments. $ETH $DOOD Core Drivers of the Surge
· "Fence Effect" at Korean Exchanges Boosts Buying: Recently, major Korean exchanges have been undergoing network upgrades and maintenance, causing deposits and withdrawals of multiple tokens including DOOD to be suspended. External chips cannot be transferred in to dump, and cross-exchange arbitrage channels are restricted, leading to a concentrated inflow of local Korean funds, resulting in significant premiums and one-way price surges in the local market.
· Social Buzz Ignites Retail FOMO: Social data has exploded in volume over a short period, with 24-hour global discussions sharply soaring to over a hundred thousand posts, quickly attracting short-term speculative funds to follow the trend, creating emotional resonance.
· High-Leverage Long Squeeze in Derivatives: The open interest (OI) of DOODUSDT perpetual contracts has surged 16.63% in a short time, with new funds dominated by newly opened leveraged long positions. The capital push combined with some shorts being forced to close has amplified the rally.
· Rotation Triggered by Low Market Cap and Thin Order Book: DOOD itself is a relatively small market cap Meme/NFT concept coin, with a high concentration of holdings (top ten addresses hold over 70%). During market rotation, even a small amount of funds can create significant price elasticity on a shallow order book.One is waiting to be unlocked, one is being dumped by a big player, and one is neither mentioned nor sold.
The top student with a time bomb, $HYPE at $76.54, down 16.96% in 30 days but up 38.97% in 90 days. There is an unlock for core contributors on November 6th. Currently, only 22.24% is circulating, with an FDV of 76.09 billion. 73 is the near-term support; breaking it means the unlock expectation is being priced in early. Only reclaiming 79.13 counts as fully digested.
$UNI, abandoned by the former leader, at $6.92, up 0.74%, with a volume of 215.84M. Hayes cleared out over the weekend, specifically selling UNI, and the market responded with a green candle. But the protocol focuses on fee income, not who is shouting. Falling back below 6.8 indicates selling pressure is not yet exhausted.
The most boring yet most resilient is $DOGE at $0.0769, with a market cap of 12.03B. Its decline is smaller than most major coins, indicating stable holdings but also no new money coming in. 0.075 is the bottom of the range; breaking it triggers programmed selling pressure. Any rise depends on external events; technicals alone can't push it.ETH almost couldn't hold 2300 this morning, then pulled back to 2333 in the afternoon, really frustrating. This time I'm leaning towards waiting for a pullback to go long, taking profits on the rebound first, not rushing to bet on a big move. According to this chart setup, the 15-minute 20 moving average is at 2322, the price just reclaimed it, and MACD has turned up, so continuing to short around 2300 feels a bit late to me.
The whale-to-retail difference narrowed from -1.2 earlier this month to -0.35. Based on your provided criteria, big players have been reducing shorts all along and only slowed down temporarily over the weekend. I'm willing to have some hope for this rebound, but reducing shorts is still one step away from aggressively going long; we can't just rely on indicators turning positive to assume a definite rise ahead.
I want to wait for a pullback to 2318–2323, and if it holds, lightly add some positions. If it drops below 2305, I'll exit to avoid holding through a test of 2292 or even 2281. I'll take partial profits near 2350 first, then watch 2365; previous attempts there were pushed down, so if it really reaches that, I don't have a big appetite for it yet. Chasing directly at 2333 feels awkward since it's close to 2350, and a 20-point drop from there is quite easy.
What I most want to see from this long position is that after the pullback, it doesn't grind back down to 2300. If it just reclaimed the moving average and then falls again, that rebound confidence is gone. I'd rather add less now than hold a short-term long position hoping every day for a whale to save it. I'll wait to see if there's an opportunity around 2320 first.$ETH 2,335 closed long positions, originally targeting 2370, but didn't want to wait.
Today the highest touched 2,371, but it didn't hold, falling back above 2,300. The daily high-low difference is less than ninety dollars, the rebound is weak.
The position side is clearer: open interest of ETH across all exchanges has decreased by about nine billion this month, leverage keeps moving out, and those remaining are also reducing positions.
The staking exit queue dropped from 280,000 tokens to just over 3,000 — those who wanted to leave have already done so. Sellers have no inventory, buyers still don't come, so the price is stuck around 2,300.
To go up, it needs to pass 2,370, then 2,440; downwards, the strong liquidation zone at 2,286 is just one step away. Before the early Thursday decision, this odds is not worth it.
The position is closed. If it really breaks above 2,440 with volume, then recalculate. #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, with the latest reading at -0.1259%. This number alone isn't large, but the fact that it hasn't turned positive for over thirty days indicates that buying pressure in the US has been relatively weak.
Let's clarify the indicator first. The premium index measures the difference between BTC prices on Coinbase relative to the global average price. When US funds are willing to pay more to buy, the index is positive; conversely, as it is now, US buyers are unwilling to pay a premium. It reflects market sentiment, not price direction.
Therefore, a negative premium does not necessarily mean Bitcoin will definitely decline. It's more like a thermometer, telling you that it's a bit cold on the US side. The real determinants of what happens next are the net inflows of spot ETFs, whether trading volume can expand, and when this index returns to positive.
My own judgment is that when the price is moving sideways, who is continuously buying is more important than the price itself. If ETFs have net outflows for several consecutive days and the premium remains suppressed, this correction likely isn't over. Conversely, if ETFs start to see inflows again and the premium moves back above zero, then we can talk about building momentum for a rebound.
At this point, I am only watching two numbers: whether the ETF's daily net inflow has turned positive, and whether the premium index can return above 0. Without resolving these two, calling a bull or bear market is just guessing. Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, latest at -0.1259%. The buying pressure in the US market is indeed weak, with buyers unwilling to pay a high price.
But a negative premium is just a thermometer, not a verdict. It indicates that funds in the US are relatively cold, but it does not directly mean the price will fall.
Next, watch two things: whether there is capital inflow back into the spot ETF, and whether the premium can return above the zero line. During sideways trading, who is buying is more worth watching than the price itself.$XAU Surprisingly, gold rebounded before Bitcoin. Gold was really weak last week, continuously falling, causing panic in the market. The Middle East situation talks about peace but then fighting breaks out again, happening every time. Their words are as meaningless as farting. Analysts are now bearish. Now, retail investors buy gold like shopping at a vegetable market, looking everywhere for bargains. Previously, when oil prices rose, people bought gold to hedge inflation. Now, with oil prices rising, it forces interest rate hikes, and gold takes the hit. The rate hike in September hasn't been fully priced in, and there's a 75% chance of another in December. It's estimated there won't be a hike at the end of the month, but 25 basis points will be added in December. The Chinese central bank is still buying, having done so for 23 consecutive months, increasing holdings by 23 tons in September. The view: retail investors buy cheap gold, central banks buy as a backup plan; both are right, just on different cycles. If 4000 holds, there's still hope by year-end; if not, it's another story. Support at 3978/3942, resistance at 4030/4070.🌙 On Monday night, ENA alone rose 8 points, while the other three coins didn't follow at all
$ENA had been hovering around 0.187 before, but today it directly jumped to 0.204, up 8.8%, with a clear increase in trading volume. ENA is a USD interest-bearing stablecoin USDe, backed by a basket of short-term US Treasury bonds. When you hold USDe, you earn yields based on the Treasury rates. If interest rates go down, the appeal of interest-bearing stablecoins changes, and funds move early in that direction. But be clear: the elasticity of interest-bearing coins is completely tied to interest rate expectations. If the decision is hawkish, this 8-point gain could be wiped out.
$BTC is at 80,300, moving sideways all day 📊 After breaking 81,000, it didn't continue to drop, hovering around 80,300 all day with shrinking volume. On-chain, two opposite trends: long-term holders are withdrawing 770 million BTC from market makers for themselves, while early investors are depositing coins to exchanges preparing to sell. The rate decision is the day after tomorrow, with an 84.5% chance of no change. Whether 80,000 holds is key; avoid heavy positions at this level.
$ASTER has launched perpetual contracts on several chains, with fees and market-making rebate rules set, but trading volume is only a few hundred thousand USD. Funds are chasing coins like ENA with interest rate stories. New chain DEXs without catalysts are ignored; an event is needed to attract users.
$HYPE was 80 a few days ago, now 75.8. It didn't follow ENA's 8-point rise. This shows funds chose the interest-bearing direction today, not on-chain exchanges. 75 is the next level to watch; without a market reversal, it’s hard for it to move up on its ownThe entire network saw liquidations of 119 million in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 82.01 million; however, $ETH long positions liquidated 22.41 million, while $BTC long positions only liquidated 13.24 million — the leverage long liquidation intensity for ETH is 1.7 times that of BTC, making the short-term "forced sell-off" cleaner.
But ETH has not yet earned the qualification for recovery. BTC has pulled away from around 79,373, repeatedly contesting above 80,000; ETH is still grinding near 2,300–2,320, failing to reclaim 2,349. One is half-exposed, the other still crouching at the edge of the pit — this is "relative strength," not a reversal.
Both sides have their own weaknesses. BTC's rebound includes short covering; on October 22, spot ETF net outflows reached 636 million in a single day, with IBIT and FBTC accounting for 74%. ETH's ETF cumulative outflows in October exceeded 1 billion, and Glamsterdam's Hoodi testnet was delayed again due to EIP-8037 security concerns; however, the staked amount is 43.7–43.8 million ETH, accounting for 35–36% of supply, and exchange reserves are at a historic low of only 3.49% — "ETFs that can sell are selling, staked ETH that can't sell is locked."
Conditions: If BTC effectively breaks below 79,373 and fails to reclaim 80,000, the bullish judgment is invalid; if ETH fails to hold 2,293, "recovery" is out of the question. Conversely, if BTC hovers near 80,000 and ETH quietly forms higher lows and holds 2,349, the leader should be re-evaluated. Whoever first turns resistance into support is the true recovery $ZEC 📉 从表面来看，$ETH 正面临不小的压力。价格持续徘徊在2300美元附近，10月份现货ETF净赎回规模已超过10亿美元，原定于26日进行的 Glamsterdam 测试网升级也再次推迟。随着市场质疑声不断增加，看空情绪逐渐占据主导。 🧩 但如果只盯着价格和资金流出，可能会忽略市场正在发生的另一面。 🐋 链上数据显示，单日约有170,000枚 ETH 从交易所流出，这是过去四个月以来最大的单日流出规模。与此同时，ETH质押总量仍处于历史高位，超过43.8百万枚。 ⚖️ 这正是当前市场最值得关注的矛盾：一边是ETF资金持续流出、技术升级延期以及投资者信心承压；另一边则是大量ETH离开交易所，质押总量继续维持在历史高位。 💡 这是否意味着大户正在为下一轮上涨做准备？答案并没有那么简单。 📊 ETH流出交易所，可能意味着投资者将资产转入长期持有或质押，但这并不能直接证明市场正在大规模吸筹。同样，质押数量处于高位，也不代表这些ETH未来永远不会进入市场流通。 🎯 当前真正的较量，不只是多空双方的价格博弈，而是短期流动性压力与长期网络信心之间的对抗。 📈 如果ETH能够在2300美Don't rush to bottom-fish BTC pullbacks; first check the contract structure before deciding your position size. BTC dropped from 84800 to 79000, and I reviewed this pullback.
The small rebound hovering around 80000 now looks more like a breather for the bears, not a reversal.
79000 is the key support this week; if it breaks, stop-loss orders will flood out; on the upside, 80500 is the level bulls need to hold. If it can't hold above, the rebound is just a correction.
Pay attention to contract signals here: funding rates are dropping fast, bulls are being passively liquidated, not actively bottom-fishing. Total open interest hasn't dropped significantly, and bears haven't fled; both sides are waiting for direction.
Only a strong volume close above 80500 is a real takeover; low-volume rallies are mostly bull traps, likely to retest 79000 later.
I've already cleared my chasing longs, keeping only a base position to observe, with stop-loss at structural levels, no holding through losses. Until BTC's direction is clear, I won't touch altcoins—they're more volatile and have sharper pullbacks.
Simply put, don't be fooled by small rebounds. Before the structure is repaired, managing position size is more important than guessing price moves.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC will hit a new ATH between May and Nov 2027 📅
Cycles are speeding up. The ATH-to-ATH duration is compressing: 1079 days -> 845 days -> 662 days (projected).
This leads to a "zero-fluctuation paradox" BTC is maturing into a persistent uptrend like the SPX or NASDAQ, where corrections get shorter and expansions get longer
Do you think BTC is becoming a traditional equity market? 👇
#OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek
$BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro📉 Five consecutive days of lower highs, three times the lows did not break, I am betting on an upward correction.
In the morning, I mentioned testing 79,220, the lowest was 79,377.7, a difference of 157.
The break was only 216.7 contracts, just 23.6% of 10-24. A low-volume false break, already returned to 80,460.
The price is fake, look at the position: open interest 3.118 million contracts, yesterday at the same point 2.993 million, +4.2%; price +0.15%. Positions increased but price did not move, new money is betting but not winning.
The fee rate sticks to the 0.01% benchmark, premium −0.0389% still negative. Discount plus benchmark fee, the ones paying are the shorts. The position price does not fall, it is trapped.
Contrary evidence: daily high points have fallen for five consecutive days, from 84,899.6 to 80,955.6, −4.6%.
10-22 has already fallen completely, the following three days only dropped 211, 779, 114, amplitude 3.32% received 1.99%. No one is willing to raise the price, this is not the first phase of a new trend.
Judgment: upward correction. First watch 81,070, if it stands above, open 81,600.
If the 1H close breaks 79,000, I admit I am wrong, look down to 78,400. Window until 10-27 20:00.
Lows not breaking means shorts dare not raise the price, consecutive lower highs means bulls are conceding price.
Personal review, not investment advice.
Will 81,000 come first, or 79,200 first?
$BTC #OctoberFOMC approaching, what uncertainties remain with the Fed pausing rate hikes?$DOOD surged 64% in one day. I advise you not to click buy just yet.
This coin's circulating market cap is only between 10 to 20 million USD.
On the day of the surge, the trading volume was 213 million, more than five times the entire project’s market cap.
A small shop valued at 38,000 sold 210,000 worth of gift cards in one afternoon.
Is this booming business or the same card being flipped back and forth?
The project team hasn’t said a word, no announcements, no partnerships, no products, yet it doubled in price with zero news.
The short sellers are there.The "Burn Paradox" of Meme Launchpad: Burning Billions, Why Does the Token Price Still Remain Flat?
Meme Launchpad is a highly profitable business with astonishing burn figures. But the truth is: buybacks only address the supply side; if the demand side doesn't hold, no matter how much is burned, it's just artificial respiration for assets without real use cases.
Let's look at these three tokens:
$PUMP has the most aggressive buyback: 50% of revenue is used for automatic burns, with about $414.6 million spent cumulatively by late July (later exceeding $450 million), burning 153.7 billion tokens (15.4% of total supply). Yet the price remains sluggish—users playing on the platform simply don't need to hold the token. Lacking rigid demand, burns can't offset the continuous unlocking and selling pressure.
$PONS has an even more aggressive mechanism: 80% of revenue is used for buybacks, 32% of total supply already burned, and TGE tokens are fully circulating with no unlocking schedule. Although deflation is intense, its lifeline is still tied to Meme hype, lacking stable cash flow.
$BNB serves as the core comparison group. Its burns are based on an Auto-Burn formula (not directly linked to profits), but BNB is a must-have asset for Gas fees, new token launches, and staking. Burns are meaningful because demand is real and sustained, not just a numbers game.
Summary:
Burning is the numerator; the token's rigid demand is the denominator. When the denominator approaches zero, a high burn ratio is meaningless. When evaluating launchpad tokens, first ask: aside from speculation, why must users hold it? If there is no reason, buybacks only provide exit liquidity for unlocking holders.Google Cloud surged 82%, but cash flow turned negative—so is this AI really profitable?
First, let's talk about the contrast. Google Cloud's revenue last quarter was ¥24.768 billion, up 82% year-over-year, the fastest growth in history, and accelerating for four consecutive quarters: 34, 48, 63, 82. Operating margin jumped from 20.7% straight to 35.6%.
The data is truly impressive. But on the other hand, $GOOGL's capital expenditure this year is set to hit ¥195 to ¥205 billion, doubling last year's ¥91.4 billion, and expected to increase further to ¥350 billion by 2027 according to Goldman Sachs. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in decades in a single quarter, and the company has even started selling stock and preferred shares to raise money for AI.
Now, two camps are fiercely debating.
The bears shout: It's a bottomless pit. Can the small cloud profits cover ¥200 billion in depreciation?
The bulls say: Cloud has ¥500 billion in backlog orders, and profit margins are still doubling. This isn't burning money; it's just that capacity hasn't been built yet, and orders are queued up.
I side with the latter. To judge whether AI investment is paying off, don't just focus on cash flow; look at whether cloud growth and profit margins are rising together—both of which Google is delivering, indicating AI isn't just hype, but real money coming in. Negative cash flow just means buying future capacity in advance.
The Q3 report is coming out in the next few days. If cloud really hits over 90% as expected, those criticizing the burn rate will have to recalculate.
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ The market has been really tough these past two days. The most frustrating short positions are when you get the direction right but don't make any money. BTC dropped to around 79,300 this morning, then bounced back to 80,479 in the afternoon, nearly a 1,000-point recovery. ETH at 2,333, SOL at 101.5, they all followed suit. Damn, when it dropped this morning I thought I could wait a bit longer, but now I'm stuck debating whether to close the position.
This round I'm leaning slightly bullish, but I don't want to chase above 80,400. The 15-minute 20 moving average for BTC is at 80,167, just recovered it, so I want to see if there are still buyers if it pulls back. I plan to buy a bit between 80,150 and 80,200, cut losses if it drops back to 79,800, and sell half near 80,800. It hasn't passed 81,000 yet, so I'm not interested in calling a reversal for now. I wanted to short on the rebound this morning, but since the price has pulled back to the moving average, I won't place that short order for now—no need to force the morning idea.
For ETH, I want to wait around 2,320, exit below 2,305, take some profit at 2,350, and see if it can reach 2,365. It hasn't outperformed BTC this time, so don't get greedy just because it bounced back thirty bucks. The Hoodi testnet upgrade has also been postponed; it was originally scheduled for today but was canceled last week, so don't use old schedules to boost your confidence in longs. SOL has been recovered from below 100, but chasing above 101.5 is risky; 102.2 is just above. I'd rather wait near 101 and admit a mistake at 100.4. Today I want to focus more on BTC, at least it's closer to the level I want to enter. The short positions from this morning haven't closed yet; should I close now or wait for another dip?The Ethereum Foundation's sale of 2,785 ETH has indeed attracted market attention, but with a volume of just over $6 million, it is hard to say this is the fundamental cause of the decline given the massive daily trading volume.
This is more of a routine fund management by the Foundation to maintain daily operations and support ecosystem development.
However, this phenomenon is seen as a top-escape indicator because the Foundation, as insiders who understand the project best, tend to cash out when market liquidity is ample and prices are at a phase high.
This cannot be taken as an absolute contrary indicator, but it is indeed a short-term sentiment reference point worth watching.别被跌幅榜骗了，今天更像分歧，不是启动 ✨ 跌幅第一就等于最弱吗？ 早上扫了一眼榜单，$CT 挂着 -11.39% 排在最前，但 24 小时其实只跌了 3.44%，1 小时价格 -1.48%，未平仓合约 222 万还在小幅加仓。这说明它不是被持续抛售，而是短时被砸出一个坑，空头没有真正接管节奏。很多人看到榜首就默认趋势坏了，这里恰恰容易误判。 真正让我皱眉的是 $ORDER。24 小时 -24.39%，1 小时又跌 6.65%，持仓减 3.87%，资金费率 -0.2802% 负得很深，成交 7774 万、量仓比 47.1。负费率配减仓，更像杠杆多头在被清出去，而不是新空头大举建仓。这种结构往往意味着下跌已进入后半段，但反手做多还太早，因为情绪修复需要时间。 $APR 是另一个镜子。昨天刚收 +59%，今天 24 小时仍 +36.93%，却从高位回落 7.17%，持仓减 8.56%，成交 2.26 亿、量仓比 111.5。热度还在，仓位先撤，这是典型的派发前奏而非启动。$RLS 昨夜冲 +41% 后回吐，1 小时又弹 4.23%，属于余温未散的震荡。 把这些拼起来看，现在处在启动后的第一#美国多家银行限制AIAgent访问客户账户
"JPMorgan Takes Harsh Measures to Block AI Butler"
JPMorgan and Bank of America recently abruptly cut off AI butlers' access to online banking statements. On the surface, they cite fraud prevention and protecting depositors' assets, but behind the scenes, they are defending against Silicon Valley tech companies.
The Federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has been urging major banks to provide data interfaces, but banks clearly understand that once AI applications directly access depositors' transaction records, the distribution channels for loans and wealth management services will all belong to tech giants.
These veteran Wall Street financial institutions would rather take the heat than let go of the gatekeeper role over users' transaction data. $BTC On one side, mainstream coins remain stagnant, while on the other, hot coins suddenly surge. Who is being shaken out in this wave?
First, look at $BTC: latest 80,531. In the past two days, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of about $773 million, with institutions clearly reducing their risk exposure.
Next, look at $ETH: 2335. Essentially following BTC's recovery, with no independent narrative; sentiment remains cautious.
Finally, look at $QNT: latest 208.81, up 11.71% today. At the end of September, US clearing giant TCH selected Quant to provide Overledger-based interoperability and transaction management technology for its "on-chain currency program," connecting to RTP and CHIPS core clearing systems. However, in the past two weeks, deleveraging has occurred, with futures volume dropping from about $190 million to $120 million, bulls taking profits, and the coin price retreating temporarily. The team is still advancing multi-chain integration (including the Solana ecosystem) and exploring digital settlement compliance in the Asia-Pacific region. Today feels more like the afterglow of the narrative, not the start of a new trend.
Summary: Funds are seeking a narrative safe haven rather than an overall increase in risk appetite. The real risk to guard against is: BTC approaching 81,000 but lacking breakout momentum; upward funds are easily shaken out before macro fundamentals land.
Do you think BTC will break through 81,000 first, or QNT will reach 220 first? Share your judgment in the comments.
#BTC #ETH #QNT
The above content is for information recording only and does not constitute investment advice.
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ This morning I was still worried that 79,000 wouldn't hold, but in the afternoon BTC pulled back to 80,479, ETH 2,333, SOL 101.5. Damn, with this market, if you get a little greedy on short positions, you end up giving the profits back. The rebound short strategy from this morning can't be blindly continued; BTC has already reclaimed 80,000, the 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80,167, and the MACD has turned up, so at least someone is willing to buy this wave for now.
Right now, I want to wait for BTC to drop near 80,200 to try some longs, rather than chasing above 80,400 on these recent candles. If it falls below 79,800 again, I'll exit. If it bounces to 80,800, I'll take some profit first. The 80,900–81,000 range has been a resistance several times before; once it gets there, I won't gamble anymore. If it just pulls away directly, I'll accept it. Chasing in and then seeing it retreat back to 80,000 would be really frustrating. ETH isn't as straightforward as BTC; it just touched back to the 2,332 20 moving average, and at 2,333 people are eager to chase, but I'm hesitant to jump in. I want to wait for a pause around 2,320 before adding, with 2,305 as a stop-loss. If it can bounce to 2,350–2,365, I'll take profits.
There's also news to watch for ETH: the originally scheduled Hoodi testnet upgrade for today was announced last week to be postponed, as they need to continue checking compatibility issues between EIP-8037 and existing contracts. Don't mistake the old upgrade schedule for today's positive news. SOL pulled back from 99.83 to 101; if it can hold near 101, I'll consider adding a bit. I'll exit below 100.4 and sell near 102.2. I won't open all three positions at once, leaning more towards waiting on BTC. Did you guys close your short positions from this morning?$SKHYNIX SK Hynix's 10 billion dividend can't hide the downturn, is 980-1000 the best shorting point?
Hynix's Q3 profit is expected to surge 8 times, and they are planning a record 10 billion dividend, which seems very impressive. But don't forget, the stock market trades on expectations, and this huge wealth has already been realized in the previous rally.
The current market is actually very weak. Although it has rebounded from the bottom, the upward momentum is clearly insufficient and lacks the strength to break through resistance. The most critical point is that when the price is creeping up, the open interest is sharply decreasing, indicating that the main players are not buying but borrowing the rebound to exit.
The 980-1000 range is both a previous high resistance and a round number barrier. Without new funds stepping in, this is very likely a bull trap.
It is recommended to short at the current price or to enter short positions on rallies within this range, targeting 960, and if it breaks below, look at 940. Use stop-loss properly and trade the pullback after the positive news has been fully priced in.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 今天BTC在8万美元附近来回拉锯 盘中最低摸到约79300 是9月18日以来的低位 ETH在2360美元上下 数据为10月26日白天行情 非严格收盘价 以交易所实时为准 今天这盘怎么说呢 像三个前任同时给你发消息 第一个是伊朗 周末美国撤侨 市场怕报复 避险情绪直接拉满 第二个是美联储 27-28号议息 9月已经加息到3.75%到4% 这次再加概率不高 但12月被押注的概率不低 第三个是ETF 22号23号两天净流出约7.7亿美元 机构也在追涨杀跌 三个人都不好回 所以大家选择已读不回 价格就在8万附近晃 但有个细节我觉得挺有意思 ETF在往外跑 巨鲸却在往里捡 数据显示8月底以来巨鲸大概增持了6万BTC 散户机构在前门排队退货 大户在后门悄悄进货 这种剧情一般不会马上反转 但值得盯 不过数据来自分析师引述 我没对照原始数据 大家引用前自己核一下 明天怎么看 周三凌晨议息才是正片 周五还有BTC月度期权交割 本周事件密集 波动多半不会小 8万整数关口可以当观察位 不是信仰位 操作上我的态度很朴素 降杠杆比抄底重要 议息前后仓位轻一点 别在婚礼当天同时处理前任和伴娘迟到 想捡的话 分批小周末的风险偏好正在被外部市场一根根抽走，而加密市场给出的反应极具欺骗性：$BTC 现报 80074，24小时仅跌 0.78%，但全网总市值同期缩水 4.24%，BTC 市占率已升至 59.98%，距 60% 只差一步。这不是普跌，这是一次资金向头部资产的单向收缩。 真正值得盯住的信号来自传统市场的边缘角落：黄金失守 4000 美元，美伊冲突风险升温，而在东京上市的巴西股票 ETF 被砸到熔断。更微妙的是，EWZ 永续合约资金费率为 -1.48%，全交易所最低，空头正用合约对冲巴西资产风险。当避险情绪浓到连股票 ETF 都要靠负费率买保护时，加密市场的山寨端不可能独善其身。 盘面已经给出了答案。大市值币种几乎纹丝不动，失血全部集中在山寨：$Q 重挫 25.93%，$COMP 下跌 11.17%，换手率分别为 18% 和 17%。这是典型的仓位被动出清，而非主动做空。逆势方向只有 $CAP，暴涨 38.48%，换手率 46%，资金费率 +0.07%，说明追多者正在付费持有多头杠杆——这种结构脆弱且拥挤，恰恰是风险偏好收缩末期最常见的景象。 我的判断是：未来 72 小时，BTC 市占率将突破Capital institutions have not uniformly exited the crypto market — instead, they have become more selective.
On October 23, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw about $138 million in outflows, while Grayscale's Zcash ETF attracted $20.5 million in inflows.
A single trading day cannot confirm a rotation of funds, but this divergence is worth noting: is capital moving down the risk curve, or simply hedging BTC exposure?
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 🔥SK Hynix, sudden major positive news, soaring straight up
SK Hynix confirmed on Monday (26th) that it will announce shareholder return measures simultaneously when releasing its Q3 financial report on Wednesday (28th). Market rumors suggest the company may distribute a special dividend of up to 160 trillion KRW (about 12.1 billion USD). After the news broke, the Hong Kong stock market saw SK Hynix double-leveraged longs surge nearly 6% in the afternoon, while SK Hynix's stock price in the Korean market rose over 2% against the market trend on Monday.
Reports citing informed investment banking sources indicate that the special dividend SK Hynix plans to distribute may be funded by the cash proceeds from its stake reduction in Kioxia during the year.
Calculations show that SK Hynix gradually cleared its Kioxia shares in Q1 and Q2 this year, realizing a net gain of about 200 trillion KRW (equivalent to 15.1 billion USD) after deducting initial investment costs. If the 160 trillion KRW special dividend is implemented, it would account for about 80% of the net gain from this investment.
Data shows that in 2018, Bain Capital led a consortium of investors from the US, Japan, and South Korea to acquire Toshiba's memory business and formed Kioxia. At that time, SK Hynix subscribed to Kioxia's stocks and convertible bonds through two special purpose companies, with a total investment of about 40 trillion KRW. As Bain Capital fully exited its remaining Kioxia shares during the year, SK Hynix also completed its full exit from its holdings.
The market also showed some disturbance signals: On October 26, it was reported that two leveraged ETFs linked to SK Hynix, listed on the US stock market for only a few months, plan to liquidate and delist, indirectly reflecting a cooling of market enthusiasm for the AI trading sector $SKHYNIX $DOOD
A 2021 old NFT project token, surged 268% in two days, then dropped back 66% in four days, and today it jumped 50% again. You tell me if this market is scary or not. Anyway, I dare not touch it.
Doodles coin was only issued last May. There was no official announcement for this round of surge; it was purely driven by Korean retail investors. The Korean won markets on Upbit and Bithumb took the bulk, and Bithumb itself issued a warning— a few accounts accounted for more than half of the trading volume, with prices 10-20% higher than the global average. Experienced players know the term Korean premium well; the pullback will be the fastest.
I did a quick test on OKX; today the lowest was 0.001374, the highest surged to 0.002666, now around 0.0023, up nearly 60% in 24 hours. The funding rate is currently -0.93%, settled at 8 o'clock, shorts have to pay nearly 1% tax every 8 hours, a typical short squeeze. The total position is only 3.94 million USD, 24-hour trading volume reached 125 million, turnover is 30 times the position, purely a chip game.
No story, no announcement, all relying on funds and sentiment, no matter how much it rises, it's just passing the hot potato. I won't participate, just watching the Korean capital show.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议