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SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is imminent, can HBM4 boost profitability? (Concise version)
The market generally expects that HBM4 will hardly significantly drive SK Hynix's profitability in the third quarter. The performance pillars this quarter remain HBM3E and the price-increased general DRAM.
Although HBM4 has started deliveries for Nvidia's new platform, it is currently in the capacity ramp-up phase. Yield and shipment scale have not been fully released yet. Coupled with the delayed launch schedule of Nvidia's new GPU, HBM4's share of total revenue in Q3 is not high, contributing limited profit, and some capacity even flows back to regular DRAM.
In the medium to long term, HBM4 remains the core highlight for raising the profitability baseline. Compared to HBM3E's significant upgrades in bandwidth and energy efficiency, the product has a good premium. A large number of long-term supply orders for 2026–2027 have already been locked in. After capacity release in Q4, it is expected to raise the gross margin of the HBM business and become an important growth curve thereafter.
Industry competition is intensifying. Samsung's yield continues to improve, and Micron has also completed certification. The HBM track has shifted from near exclusivity to competition among three companies, which will compress product premium space in the long term.
This earnings report focuses on HBM4 yield, shipment guidance, and new long-term order status. HBM4 is the main profit line for next year, not the savior of Q3 performance. The quality of guidance will directly affect the market's judgment on the subsequent storage market sentiment.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Paradigm is gone, MC is gone, and now even A16Z is gone.
Watching these names leave one by one suddenly reminds me of the Crypto markets in 2017 and 2020.
Back then, everyone's imagination for the future was really much bolder than it is now.
Some believed EOS could break through the third wave, some firmly believed BCH would eventually counterattack BTC, some treated FIL as the king of storage, and others were convinced ICP would become the next generation king of public blockchains.
Looking back at these stories today, many have become historical anecdotes among veteran players. But at the time, quite a few people took these judgments as the future, willing to invest money, time, and emotion.
It was a foolish but passionate era. Foolish because many narratives couldn't withstand the test of time; passionate because everyone truly believed they were part of a revolution changing the world.
The current situation is somewhat strange.
BTC ETFs have been approved, traditional financial institutions in the US have started to participate, and the mainstream recognition many once dreamed of is becoming a reality. Logically, this should be the most confident time for Crypto.
But the sense of faith within the community doesn't seem to have strengthened accordingly.
After going through several cycles, people probably understand risks better and are clearer about which stories are just packaging. Institutional entry has brought more funds and compliance channels, but it doesn't necessarily bring back the early emotion of believing anything is possible.$40 billion borrowed, but Musk says: The door to borrowing money is closed for AI companies without real revenue.
SpaceX confirmed on Sunday: $40 billion in redeemable bonds secured, specifically to buy Nvidia GPUs, arriving in Q1 and Q2 next year.
Interestingly, the ledger shows: Q3 revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161% year-over-year, but capital expenditure nearly tripled to $19.6 billion.
Q4 is even more intense: CFO guides capital expenditure at $35–40 billion, equivalent to at least 2.4 times Q3 revenue.
Musk’s original words are straightforward: The debt market only opens doors to companies with "real revenue outside AI data centers"; pure GPU rental neoclouds are about to face a wave of bankruptcies.
I think this is a watershed moment for AI infrastructure: those with cash flow continue to borrow and expand, those without can’t even get a foot in the door; observe, don’t chase.
Invalidation condition: If Q4 capital expenditure lands below $30 billion, or SpaceX itself changes course to buy neocloud, then this judgment is void.
Who do you think will fall first among pure GPU rental neoclouds? Or is Musk just scaring people?
$SPCX $NVDA $CRWV
#SpaceX #Musk Unrealized loss of 22.78 million, and he didn’t even bat an eye.
Three short positions are all in the adverse zone: $BTC unrealized loss of 12.06 million, $ETH 4.76 million, $SOL 5.95 million. For a typical position size, these numbers would be enough to make someone wake up in the middle of the night to watch the market. But not him.
Just look at the liquidation lines: $BTC needs to rise to 140,000, $ETH to 3,838, $SOL to 316 before he gets liquidated. The current price is a whole narrative cycle away from there. With 5x, 5x, and 7x leverage, he bought a "no need to watch the market" ticket.
What he’s betting on isn’t a single candlestick, but the momentum after the FOMC.
This week on October 28, the Federal Reserve decision is expected, with the market pricing in over a 90% chance of keeping rates unchanged. Normally, no rate hike is good news. But the real risk lies in the post-meeting statement: will Waller leave the door open for a December hike? Oil prices remain high, inflation isn’t dead yet, and any hawkish wording could trigger another round of risk asset sell-off before the liquidity-thin weekend. $BTC has already dropped below 80,000 today, hitting a low of 79,800, and 82,500 has become the bulls’ must-reclaim face. He’s betting that 80,000 won’t hold and that prices will continue to fall after the FOMC.
But here’s a very dangerous signal that retail investors often overlook: shorts are paying longs. The $BTC perpetual funding rate has turned negative, with shorts paying every 8 hours just to maintain their positions. This means shorting is no longer the "smart money minority" but has become a crowded trade. Negative funding rates plus price crashes have historically led to the same outcome: as soon as $BTC climbs back above 80,000, a batch of shorts will be forced to cover, instantly igniting a short squeeze. His liquidation is far away, but that doesn’t mean those chasing shorts won’t get liquidated.
So this whale’s composure is essentially built on two things: a thick profit buffer and a liquidation line far away. Total profit is 180 million, funding fees keep flowing in, and the unrealized loss is just a paper game. But for those rushing in to short after reading this post, the situation is completely different—you don’t have a $BTC liquidation line at 140,000, you only have about a 200-dollar fluctuation range around the 80,000 mark.
At the moment the FOMC decision lands, two scenarios coexist:
Hawkish signals confirmed → he keeps collecting fees, shorts celebrate;
Expectations disappointed + negative funding rate backlash → short squeeze starts, those chasing shorts pay for his unrealized loss.
What this whale is really betting on isn’t direction, but on time siding with him.
Do you think 80,000 will hold? See you in the comments.👇
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ This market situation is making my scalp tingle.
When BTC hit its lowest point near 79,400, the group chat went eerily silent, then it was forcibly pulled back to 80,000. $ETH did the same, breaking 2300 then climbing back up like nothing happened. Looking around, only $ZEC still shows some backbone; even though it followed the downtrend today, the weekly chart is still red. Funds have genuinely moved a bit into privacy coins. But that's about it, don't get carried away chasing.
To be blunt, the most frustrating thing about this market isn't the drop, it's that no one is playing anymore.
BTC's daily trading volume has shrunk to around 16 to 17 billion—what does that mean? When it drops, no one catches it; when it rises, no one follows. It's just seasoned insiders inside the market shuffling money between themselves. $ETH is even worse; the ETF has drained over a billion in ten days, the order book is as thin as paper, and the top five sell orders are more than ten times the buy orders. Bears just need a little push to drop the price significantly. You tell me this kind of rebound is a reversal? I don't buy it.
Don't just focus on the Standard Chartered stablecoin news. Anchorpoint says no rush, no confirmed timeline—in other words, it's the usual institutional "take it slow" spiel. Expecting them to come in now and catch the falling knife is wishful thinking. The real pressure is this week—Fed FOMC, PCE, GDP all packed together, plus the geopolitical tension between the US and Iran still hanging like a knife. If oil prices twitch, inflation expectations rise, who dares to aggressively buy risky assets early in the week? During such macro windows, the main players prefer low volume grinding, grinding until you get itchy hands and can't resist bottom fishing, then they jab the price down again.
So my view hasn't changed; if anything, it's firmer: at this position, watch more and act less.
If BTC can't reclaim 80,500 and ETH can't hold above 2350, it's pure garbage time. Don't think a big drop means a rebound is due; low-volume slow declines are best at making you think it's the bottom, only to find there's a basement below. Getting hit from both sides is ten times worse than being out of the market.
Just hold on. Wait for volume to pick up, wait for the trend to clarify its direction. When your hands get itchy, glance at the volume and hold back.
Purely personal notes, not investment advice; positions are my own, money is my own.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ ETF inflows are a positive signal, but capital flowing in and price moving up are two different things.
If BTC continues to struggle despite institutional demand, it raises questions about how much sell side pressure is still sitting in the market.
The FOMC could be the catalyst that shifts this balance, but until spot demand strengthens, any recovery remains vulnerable.
#OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek Price holds, but funds withdraw first
Today's market focus is not on price fluctuations but on the divergence between price and funds.
The total open interest across the network decreased by 1.15% in one day, remaining at 139.466 billion; contract trading volume plummeted 39.82% to only 87.708 billion. BTC is still hovering above 80,500, ETH holds at 2,350, and SOL is circling around 101, with all three major assets showing volatility under 0.25%. Prices haven't broken down, but positions have simultaneously retreated: BTC open interest down 1.65%, ETH down 2.63%, SOL down 1.83%.
This doesn't look like panic selling but more like large funds actively reducing exposure. Monday lacks hard data, so a 40% volume shrink is somewhat understandable; however, the synchronized withdrawal of positions indicates it's not just "Monday sluggishness."
ZEC is the only outlier: open interest increased 3.80% to 2.43 billion, price touched near 1,216; but liquidations reached 3.76 million, surpassing SOL's 3.31 million. The more hot money squeezes in, the more people get liquidated — this kind of strength is not pure.
If BTC loses 80,500, we can only watch if volume returns to fill the gap; for ZEC's chasing method, don't catch the last baton. The people haven't left the seat, but half the chairs are already empty.
Right now, only do one thing: don't add positions to the three major mainstream coins, don't chase ZEC at highs, reduce overall positions one more notch, and wait for trading volume to return before discussing direction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 When the chopping board sounds, the revenue guidance of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion hits the table like a basket of muddy truffles — SanDisk's first quarter of the new fiscal year is not serving a small dish, but pushing the cold storage door of the kitchen straight to the front hall. The real test after the U.S. stock market closes on October 29 is not "whether there are guests," but whether the storage chip inventory, data center computing power orders, and flash price increases can all come together in one pot to yield a delicious sauce.
Let's start with the main course. The storage business is the hearty dish of this feast: strong demand from data centers means higher table turnover in the front hall; flash chip price increases mean the broth cost has changed, but if the menu price holds, the gross margin can lock in the meat juices like a sear. The revenue guidance range is not narrow, indicating the kitchen is confident about the heat, but guests are picky — revenue alone is not enough; we also need to see if profit is simmered from the broth. If the plate is only expanded by price hikes, no matter how skilled the knife work, the taste may be dry; if high-capacity storage and computing power orders both increase, then the main dish comes with side dishes, creating clear layers.
Now for the seasoning. That U.S. stock tokenized chip target with a cross in the code is like slicing the same steak into two presentations: the stock looks at financial reports and industry prosperity, the token looks at sentiment, liquidity, and risk appetite. What does the kitchen fear most? When the front hall shouts "big data storage cycle," the stove sprinkles leverage like super spicy chili. Chili can enhance aroma but also burn the stomach; chasing aroma before financial reports can mistake a tasting for a full meal. Storage prosperity is a slow simmer, token volatility is a high-heat stir-fry — the two are not the same heat.
What I value most is the serving rhythm: is revenue near the upper limit, and is profit keeping pace; with rising flash prices, can costs be passed on; are data center orders long-term or short-term; is inventory turnover as clean as prepping ingredients. If these three pots boil simultaneously, the storage business can rise from side dish to main course; if only one pot is boiling, don't rush to bet the whole table. Mainstream coins are the main course, altcoins are seasoning, leveraged contracts are super spicy chili — no matter how delicious the storage financial report dish is, taste the saltiness first before deciding how many chilies to add.
Kitchen verdict: this is not a quick stir-fry that "smells good and is served," but a hearty dish that looks at broth, knife skills, and reduction; if SanDisk can turn price hikes into profit and computing power orders into repeat purchases, then this storage feast deserves a five-star table; if it's just a big revenue plate with profits as thin as hotpot water, no matter how lively, it's just the front hall banging gongs, the kitchen has no meat. #sandiskq1storagegrowth$BTC just dropped below 80,000 on Saturday, then bounced back this morning. Both bulls and bears got slapped within a day.
This is not a reversal; it's a fierce tug-of-war at the 80,000 level. Volume is still there, but the direction is not set at all.
80,000 defends the price but loses confidence. Don't place heavy bets in the middle of a tug-of-war.$ETH liquidated 22.41 million, $BTC only liquidated 13.24 million — this is the real signal worth watching today. $BTC
To start with the conclusion, to avoid anyone rushing to criticize: for short-term recovery, I still lean on $BTC, but only as "relatively strong," still one breath away from confirming a reversal.
It's not that $BTC is inherently strong just because it fell less. Look at a more painful data point: in the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 119 million, with longs accounting for 82.01 million. But breaking it down, $ETH longs liquidated 22.41 million, $BTC longs only 13.24 million. The leverage long liquidation on $ETH was almost 1.7 times that of BTC. The harsher the liquidation, the fewer "forced sell orders" remain in the short term — this is ETH's potential reverse chip, but the premise is it must first prove it can hold.
As for $BTC's current position: repeated battles above 80,000 USD, the 24-hour low hit around 79,373, already some distance from the low point for recovery. What about $ETH? Grinding near 2,300–2,320, still hasn't reclaimed around 2,349. One has half its body out of the pit, the other is still crouching at the edge — this is the full meaning of "relatively strong," not romantic, but objective.
But don't rush to take "$BTC recovers first" as a belief. This rebound above 80,000 has a large component of short covering. On October 22, $BTC spot ETF net outflow was 636 million, with BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC contributing over 70% of the outflow. If spot buying can't catch up, a few candlesticks can erase this advantage. If $BTC effectively breaks below 79,373 and can't reclaim 80,000, I will immediately discard this judgment, no stubbornness.
$ETH's side is more subtle. It carries two mountains: October spot $ETH ETF cumulative net outflow exceeded 1 billion USD, and the Glamsterdam upgrade testnet launch was delayed again. On the other hand, the total network staking amount has already reached 43 to 44 million $ETH, about 36% of circulating supply, and exchange reserves continue to decline. ETFs that can sell are selling, staked tokens that can't sell are locked. If 2,293 is effectively broken and not reclaimed, $ETH's "recovery" doesn't even qualify for discussion; but as long as it holds 2,293 and grinds back above 2,349, combined with the 22.41 million longs liquidated, a low-level rebound could upgrade to a real recovery at any time.
Don't pretend not to see the macro side either. The FOMC on October 27–28 is imminent, the market prices about 78% chance of "no change." No change itself is not bullish, but it can temporarily ease the "rate hike fear" tension. The real risk lies in the post-meeting wording — if the dot plot or press conference pulls back the December rate hike expectation, both 80,000 and 2,293 will have to undergo pressure tests again.
Finally, leaving a counter scenario, which I want to watch most: if $BTC stays flat near 80,000, while $ETH quietly forms higher lows and continues to outperform, then the leader should be rejudged as $ETH, no need to be polite with me. The liquidation structure has already squeezed $ETH's leverage bubble cleaner, all that's missing is an action to turn 2,349 into support.
What can be said now is only one sentence: $BTC slightly leads, but whoever first turns resistance into support is the true recovery. Watch 80,000 and 2,349 closely.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Currently, short-term capital inflows have completely dissipated, and mid-term capital continues to exit. The bearish outlook is maintained today
$BTC
🔻24-hour spot net outflow of $19.56 million, contract net outflow of $257 million; spot net outflow of $64.86 million, contract net outflow of $385 million. The 30-day contract net outflow has further expanded to $7.71 billion. Short-term support is clearly insufficient, and mid-term capital is still continuously withdrawing.
$ETH
🔻24-hour spot net outflow of $31.32 million, contract net outflow of $192 million. Although there was a slight 24-hour spot net inflow of $1.72 million, the contract side still saw a net outflow of $166 million. The 30-day contract net outflow reached as high as $8.46 billion, with a capital structure clearly weaker than BTC.
$SOL
🔻24-hour spot net inflow of $8.86 million, but contract net outflow of $24.01 million; 30-day contract net outflow of $2 billion. There is capital support on the spot side, but leveraged funds are unwilling to stay, limiting the sustainability of the rebound.
ZEC
🔻24-hour spot and contract net outflows of $3.4 million and $34.43 million respectively, with a 30-day contract net outflow of $1.04 billion. After a strong market, signs of capital withdrawal have become significant.
BTC is oscillating below $80,000, and the 15-minute level capital replenishment should be seen more as short covering and low-level rebound grabbing rather than trend buying. BTC's rebound struggles to drive contract capital inflows and will continue to face downward pressure. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 At the eighteenth minute after cardiac arrest, cardiac output dropped by 18% year-over-year — this is the hemodynamic report delivered by Coinbase's Q2 earnings. But a true surgeon never just looks at the numbers on the monitor; what we need to find are structural lesions. Subscription and service revenue of 555M is like collateral circulation barely maintaining distal perfusion, but the main vessel — spot trading — is already showing segmental wall motion abnormalities.
Deribit integration is the core surgical step of this extracorporeal circulation machine. The issue is not "whether it can be connected," but "whether there is no-reflow in the microcirculation after reperfusion." Derivatives and USDC-related businesses are two newly established coronary artery bypass grafts; whether the anastomosis is well done will only be assessed after Q3 postoperative angiography (earnings release). The current market price fluctuations are just pericardial effusion — once the drainage tube is removed, symptoms ease, but the ischemic areas of the myocardium itself are not resolved.
The $xSPY tokenized linkage to US stocks is the cross-circulation system in this surgery. Whether the infusion flow of myocardial protective fluid (liquidity) is uniform directly determines the survival of the surgical area. We see that the 18% volume contraction in Q2 is equivalent to a continuous decline in stroke volume; compensatory heart rate acceleration cannot mask the downward trend of EF value. The options/perpetual contract exposure brought by Deribit, if the anastomosis permeability is insufficient, the risk of thrombosis (i.e., liquidity squeeze) will concentrate and expose during the postoperative ICU phase.
USDC-related business is more like an in situ transplantation performed during cardiac arrest — the bloodless field looks good, but after resuscitation, it must be verified whether the conduction system has been reconstructed. If this part of the revenue cannot form a stable electrophysiological rhythm, then the entire Q3 recovery curve will be a ventricular fibrillation waveform, and no matter how many defibrillations are performed, it will only temporarily flatten the curve.
The current ECG monitoring can be summed up in one sentence: the compensatory phase is over, and the edge of decompensation is being tested. How well Deribit’s anastomosis is done is not judged by the P-value, but by the urine output in the first hour after surgery — that is the true translation of cardiac output. #coinbaseq3deribitimpact#CoinbaseQ3DeribitImpact
📅 *Oct 29 After Close — Est: -$0.23 EPS *Streak BROKEN:* 3 straight misses.
Q2: -$1.36 vs -$0.44 MISS, Rev $1.22B vs $1.29B. Q1: -$1.49 vs $0.06 MISS.
Last beat was Q3 25: *$1.87B vs $1.80B (+3.6%)*, EPS $1.50 vs $1.15 *+30.9%*.
*Why tough:*
Trading vol down -36% YoY, subscription $747M stalled. Stock $164, -55% from $373 high. BofA raised target to $203 (Buy) but est cut -40% in 30 days.
*Call: 40% BEAT — low bar, but momentum weak. Need vol surprise.*Sacrificing a flank pawn on the very first move just to seize the tempo in the center — Microsoft's game is playing exactly the same tune.
Azure's year-over-year growth of about 41% last quarter is not just a result, it's the initiative. Grandmasters never look at the numbers themselves when reading financial reports; they look at how many responses the opponent has after this move. The market is currently asking two questions — will cloud growth accelerate further, and can Copilot turn subscriptions into real cash — essentially the same question: you've pressed so hard in the center, but can the flank pieces actually convert into material advantage? Spatial advantage does not equal material advantage; this is a beginner's lesson and where countless players lose in the midgame.
Military investment is the endless forward push of the pawn chain. The farther the pawns push, the more empty squares behind them; seemingly aggressive, but each square is actually an invitation to the opponent. The real watershed is not the scale of investment, but whether this pawn chain has roots — Copilot's monetization is the root. Unsupported pawns can't survive more than three exchanges.
Look again at the linked target $xMETA. Its position on the board is subtle: the king is exchanging pieces in the cloud center, while it hangs on the flank waiting for the wind. There's an iron rule for speculative flank pieces — once the center opens fire, the first to bleed is always the isolated piece without roots or protection. It doesn't decide the game; it only amplifies it. If the center wins, it's a bonus passed pawn; if the center is locked, it's the first light piece to be exchanged off. Reading it as the initiative is a beginner's misjudgment; reading it as a lever of the position touches the edge of the structure.
There are only two branches left for us to calculate. One, management raises next quarter's guidance again on the call, delivering continuous checks that force the opponent into passive responses, fully controlling the tempo; two, guidance is vague and investment continues as usual, a typical overextension — the pawn structure is already scattered but still pushing forward, waiting to be counterattacked through the center.
The only truly professional judgment is this: the winning or losing move in this game is not in the revenue column, but whether after the 41st move, they dare to keep pushing the rear flank pawns forward — holding firm means initiative, failing means a full-board gap. #microsoftq1azureandaiLast Friday, two pieces of news from Hong Kong only made sense when viewed together. On one side, HSBC's RedCoin directly entered PayMe on October 23 — a ready network with over 3.3 million users and more than 100,000 merchants, usable for peer-to-peer transfers and in-store payments. This is HSBC's first stablecoin, pegged to the Hong Kong dollar, and it obtained the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's issuer license back in April. Simply put, it takes the safest route: no market education, just directly embedding the new thing into an app users already use. On the other side is Anchorpoint, led by Standard Chartered. At a press conference on the same Friday, its CEO Dominic Maffei was asked whether the previously stated "earliest opening to individual users by the end of 2026" still holds. He did not reaffirm this timeline, only saying that building the market sustainably and long-term is the priority, and rushing to launch is "unreasonable." Anchorpoint's institutional-grade product was launched in August, and the personal version follows a B2B2C model — not distributed directly to users but through partners. So this is not simply one being fast and the other slow, but two different paths: First, closed loop vs. open. RedCoin runs first within its own familiar payment network, offering smooth experience and lower risk, but where and how you can spend is confined by the app's boundaries from the start. Anchorpoint aims to build a personal version on a public chain, theoretically able to connect to more wallets and scenarios, but once opened to individuals...Bitcoin lost the 80K mark again on Monday morning.
It dipped as low as 79.3K, with the daily chart down over 1%. Eight out of ten coins in the futures market are falling.
This drop isn't sudden. Bitcoin's premium on Coinbase has been negative for 33 consecutive days, indicating continuous selling in the US. Arthur Hayes sold nearly $49.24 million worth of altcoins in the past two days, converting the proceeds into USDC and withdrawing them.
There is still a layer of resistance above. Last week, spot ETF net inflows were $300 million, stopping two weeks of outflows, but this money didn't push the price back up. On Binance, long positions are more than twice the short positions; retail investors are bottom-fishing while whales are selling. If 80K can't hold, this batch of longs will likely be liquidated.
ETH is weaker, around 2310, down over 2%, and it even broke 2300 this morning. Long positions are more than three times the shorts, making the longs overcrowded. An institution invested in both Aave and Worldcoin transferred 6,000 ETH to exchanges over two days.
This week is packed with macro events. At 2 AM Thursday, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision, and at 8:30 PM the same day, US Q3 GDP and September PCE data will be released. The market will likely fluctuate back and forth in the meantime, waiting for the results.
My view: don't rush to buy below 80K; wait for a rebound near 80K before considering short positions, and keep your position light. If you want to go long, wait until Thursday's announcements.$DOOD Air Force don't be afraid, I've been watching this stock for a long time, this main force has no strength, their funds don't support them being able to pull it this high Gold price falling below $4,000 is not a glitch in market software, but a millennium-old risk-hedging load-bearing wall being cracked through at a critical height. $4,000/ounce is not just an ordinary round number; it is the main load-bearing height of this superstructure of safe-haven assets. This week's roughly 4% pullback, when viewed on the blueprint, is like a sudden enlargement of the core tube's lateral displacement; the curtain wall hasn't shattered yet, but the connecting components are already making abnormal noises.
Middle East uncertainties should have been external wind loads, but they were offset by stronger cash flow demands; oil-driven inflation worries and interest rate expectation reshuffling effectively changed the original load combination temporarily. The structure won't automatically reinforce itself because of geopolitical stories; it only recognizes cash flow, margin, and trading depth. To restore support for safe-haven demand, continuous readings like structural health monitoring are needed; one bullish candle cannot be taken as project completion acceptance.
Looking at US stock-mapped instruments like XTSM, they are like curtain wall systems hanging outside the main structure, visually linked to US stocks but structurally bearing risk appetite and liquidity first. When gold, this risk-hedging load-bearing wall, suddenly sinks, the expansion joints of risk assets widen; when liquidity tightens, tokenized exposures first show construction joint seepage. Whether short-term selling pressure can ease is not about Middle East headlines but about the pile-end bearing layer: whether spot selling volume shrinks, whether real interest rates fall back, and whether volatility continues to push leveraged funds to the liquidation line.
My judgment is firm: losing $4,000 is a clear settlement of the load-bearing system; XTSM's linkage is not a decorative crack but a problem in the force transmission path between the curtain wall and the main structure. Until liquidity is replenished and reinforcement ratios are restored, any blueprint that treats a rebound as project completion is an illegal addition. #goldfallsbelow$4000Bitcoin dropped another 80K on Monday morning, hitting a low of 79.3K, with the daily chart down over 1%.
The Bitcoin premium on Coinbase has been negative for 33 consecutive days, with continuous selling in the US. Hayes sold $49.24 million worth of altcoins in the past two days, converting them into USDC and exiting.
ETF saw a net inflow of $300 million last week, finally stopping two weeks of outflows, but the price hasn't recovered yet.
On Binance, longs are more than twice the shorts, with retail investors absorbing the positions of big players. The Fed decision is at 2 AM Thursday, with GDP and PCE data released the same night; waiting for the results before making moves. Bitcoin $BTC once again fell below $80,000 this weekend, touching a low near $79,146, the lowest point in over a month.
But interpreting this as a "crypto crash" is wrong: it looks more like a mechanical margin liquidation, hitting a wave of asset repricing driven by interest rates and oil prices.
The Federal Reserve meets from October 27 to 28 this week, and the market pricing for "no change" has exceeded 90%, with 94 out of 100 economists expecting rates to remain steady. This is precisely where the risk lies—the numbers themselves hold no suspense; the suspense is entirely in the statement wording and Powell's press conference, and he has already publicly abandoned forward guidance.
What truly determines whether the $80,000 level holds is not the candlestick chart but two cost lines: the average cost of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders is about $81,500, and the average cost for corporate treasuries is about $80,200. The price is currently stuck between these two lines, with those above collectively at an unrealized loss.
$ETH $ZEC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ A billion-dollar warm and humid air mass forcibly moved northward within three days, only to be pushed back by two cold air masses totaling $774 million — this is not a front tug-of-war on a weather map, but the intense pressure fluctuations currently experienced by the Bitcoin ETF capital flow channel.
From October 19 to 21, a net inflow of about $1.075 billion resembled a rare early autumn warming, briefly raising the market pressure; but from the 22nd to 23rd, a net outflow of $774 million quickly completed the cold front passage, causing temperatures to plummet sharply. Weekly settlement still recorded a net inflow of about $301 million, equivalent to total precipitation not yet turning negative, though strong local convection has already appeared. BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbed about $566 million, acting like a localized heavy rainfall center on the storm's periphery, drawing away most of the moisture but unable to mask the rainfall differentiation at surrounding stations.
Bitcoin prices briefly fell below the $80,000 mark and the 50-day moving average; this is not a simple "cooling down" but a temperature drop below the freezing point at a critical altitude — the zero-degree layer is pressed downward, the upper trough shifts eastward, and the pressure field remains at the bottom of low pressure. Short-term oscillations intensified; translated into weather terms: gust fronts frequently pass, visibility drops sharply, wind direction shear is severe, and any single-day capital flow is just noise on radar echoes, not a climate trend.
What really needs monitoring is whether the moisture transport channel will rebuild next week. The current weekly net inflow being positive indicates the warm and humid air mass has not been completely cut off; but two consecutive days of net outflow prove the cold air still has the ability to rapidly move south. This alternating "warm humid air moving north — cold front pressing south" is a typical pre-flood season tug-of-war, not the end of the rainy season, nor the start of autumn. The linkage with the US stock Token $xPLTR is equivalent to cross-regional weather system coupling — the teleconnection between Pacific moisture and continental high pressure, where pressure fluctuations at one station transmit through the circulation field to another market, but transmission efficiency depends on the background wind field, not single-point readings.
Wind shear at 5,500 meters altitude has not yet dissipated; below the 50-day moving average remains a low-pressure trough area, with short-term gusts reaching above level 7. The weekly net inflow of $301 million at best counts as a weak precipitation replenishment, insufficient to compensate for prior evaporation; IBIT's $566 million is only a localized heavy rain, not representing drought relief for the entire basin.
Current pressure field assessment: the low-pressure bottom is maintained, shortwave troughs frequently pass, and any forecast declaring clear skies just because of weekly net inflow is a serious misjudgment of convective cloud clusters. #btcetfflowswings*Streak:* 4 straight beats. Q2: $16.13B vs $14.43B (+11.8%), EPS $0.42 vs $0.21 — doubled. Q3 25: $13.65B vs $13.17B (+3.7%).
*Why YES:*
CPU price +30% in 2026 (Oct 5 hike). Server CPUs in shortage — AI inference needs 1:1 CPU:GPU. Intel shifted wafers from PC to servers. 18A output +25% above target.
*Terafab angle:*
Fab 62 Arizona install underway — ops late 27/28. 14A risk prod H2 27. External foundry $293M Q2. Need named 14A customer.
*Call: 70% YES — beat on Xeon pricing, but margin 42% ZEC two-day summary: 1,122 bottom → 1,238 peak → 1,200 consolidation, net increase of 4.4%. The key signal is price rising while open interest (OI) decreases: OI -2%, fee rate from -0.009% to +0.007%, indicating the rally is driven by short covering rather than new long entries. In the 24h liquidation, shorts liquidated 1.267 million U, exceeding longs at 689,000 U, confirming the covering logic. ZEC/BTC rose 5.1%; despite BTC breaking below 80,000 three times, it failed to drag down ZEC, showing relative strength. Resistance at 1,238 (tested twice but not broken), support at 1,188/1,178. Scenarios: break above 1,238 targets 1,259 (35% probability); range-bound (45%); break below 1,178 targets 1,105 (20%). Risks: concentrated leverage may cause spikes; if BTC falls below 78,000, strong momentum may not hold. Not investment advice. #Zcash主网激活Ironwood升级，上线新屏蔽池 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ With SK Hynix's Q3 earnings report approaching, the market is truly focused not just on whether quarterly profits can hit new highs again, but more importantly on whether HBM4 can take over to support the next growth phase.
Looking solely at Q3 performance, there is actually little suspense. AI server demand remains high, HBM3E shipments steadily increase, and with DRAM and NAND prices overall staying strong, quarterly profits are very likely to continue looking good, with a high probability of setting new records—this is basically the market consensus.
However, the boost HBM4 provides to this earnings report should not be overestimated. Currently, HBM4 is just entering mass production; yield ramp-up and customer validation require time, so Q3 and even Q4 this year are unlikely to contribute much substantial revenue. Real volume growth is basically expected next year. On the contrary, if the market has already priced in full expectations, any earnings report showing HBM4 progress or shipment guidance below expectations could easily trigger a pullback after the good news is realized.
In the long term, SK Hynix's first-mover advantage in the HBM field remains solid, and the high-bandwidth memory demand driven by AI computing upgrades is far from over. But the core focus of this Q3 earnings report has never been the current profit figures; it is the management's shipment pace and price guidance for HBM4 next year—that is the key factor determining the subsequent market trend.$UNITREE is really strong this time.
On October 16, it was still hovering around 405, but today it closed at 672, with an intraday high of 737.5. It rose over 65% in 7 trading days, and on October 23, it even hit its first 20cm daily limit since listing.
There are many catalysts: the Physical AI Conference, H2-X launch, Wang Xingxing saying the "ChatGPT moment" is coming soon, and Morgan Stanley being even more aggressive, jumping two levels from "underweight" to "overweight" with a target price of 995.
But look at today's turnover rate of 37.72% and amplitude over 20%. On the leaderboard, Goldman Sachs bought and sold at the same seat, with institutions fiercely exchanging chips at high levels. This is not a slow bull market; it's emotion-driven short squeeze.
The Q3 report will be released on October 29. The market is watching: whether the non-recurring profit turns positive, the proportion of industrial scenario orders, and humanoid robot shipments.
The story is very attractive, but the PE ratio is already over 460 times, far exceeding the industry average.
My approach: don't chase the high, keep a base position, and wait for the Q3 report to translate the "story" into "numbers" before taking action.
Preserving ammunition is more important than guessing the top. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $USDC issued another 250 million in the middle of the night. Has the bottom-fishing ammunition really arrived?
But Circle's own weekly report doesn't say so: for the week ending 10/22, about 12.8 billion USDC was issued, about 13.3 billion redeemed, with a net circulation decrease of about 500 million, marking two consecutive weeks of net decrease. The printing press is in the left hand, redemption in the right, and the right hand is faster.
BTC is falling, there are large single-day ETF outflows, USDC circulation has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the capital flow signals are not yet strong. A single issuance does not equal new funds entering the market. Even if $BTC retakes 80,000 USD, it still depends on whether subsequent capital flows can keep up. Yushu Technology (688836) surged 60% in 7 days, how should we play this wave? 🧐
Yushu has been crazy these days! On 10/16 it was stuck at 404, today it closed at 672, with an intraday high of 737, soaring over 60% in 7 trading days. On the 23rd, it even hit its first 20cm daily limit up since listing, with turnover rate once spiking above 37%. A typical event-driven plus emotion-driven short squeeze, more thrilling than a roller coaster. 🎢
The catalysts are indeed intense: the Physical AI Conference heated up expectations for the "embodied intelligence tipping point," the H2-X guardian model was launched, and Morgan Stanley directly upgraded two levels to "overweight" with a target price of 995. The story is very attractive, but we need to keep a clear head.
This wave is a sharp rally, not a slow bull market, with daily amplitude over 20% and turnover over 30%. On the leaderboard, institutions and Goldman Sachs are both buying and selling at the same seats, with chips violently exchanged at high levels. Rolling PE is nearly 400 times; once sentiment fades, the pullback will be very fast.
The Q3 report is coming soon (10/29), my strategy is simple:
1️⃣ Don't chase highs — turnover >30% is a divergence signal, don't catch the knife at the emotional peak.
2️⃣ Watch core indicators — gross margin, operating cash flow, humanoid orders/prepayments; this is the watershed from "storytelling" to "having performance."
3️⃣ Manage positions — if data is good and it holds above 680, keep half the position as a base; if average but stable above 620, reduce to 30%; if it falls below 620 or data bombs, cut to below 10%.
4️⃣ Iron rule — total loss no more than 8% of principal, reduce position unconditionally when triggered. $ETH $APR feels like it won't rally until the longs are fully cleared, and once the longs are cleared, it will be the shorts' turn. It's best to just watch this coin; the control over the market is too intense.#StrategyQ3BTCGains
📅 *Oct 29, After Close — Est: $17.25 EPS | $128.03M Rev*
But Q3 25: *$128.69M vs $116.65M BEAT (+10.3%)*, $2.8B net profit on BTC.
*BTC is earnings:*
Holds ∼640K BTC ($70B+). Fair-value accounting now — price swings = profit. Q3 EPS est swing $14 to $21.50
*History:* 0/4 EPS beats last 4Q, but 3/4 revenue beats. Stock $153, -50% from $299 high, beta 3.56.
*Call: 60% YES on revenue, coin-flip on EPS — BTC price will decide.* Watch BTC yield target 30% + $20B gain guide.$UNITREE's core logic has only two points:
First, the short squeeze fuel is exhausted. The extreme negative funding rate of -1.16% indicates that shorts have been mostly washed out. Without short covering as buying pressure, the upward momentum will inevitably fade.
Second, sentiment is overextended + severely overbought. The FOMO sentiment transmitted from the A-share surge has reached its peak, and RSI is extremely overbought. Around 104 is the short-term ceiling; chasing longs means taking the bag.
Operation:
Light short positions near 100, with defense at previous highs. More conservative approach is to wait for volume to break below 95 to confirm weakness before chasing. Target is to retest below 90.
Do not chase highs, short on rallies, and set stop losses properly. Consult the market when there is no clear direction.NEAR is currently trading around $5.00, down 3.79% in the last 24 hours. After reaching a high of $5.45 during the day, it retreated and is consolidating weakly near $5.00. The short-term structure is bearish: the price has fallen below the 7-day SMA ($5.01) and the 20-day SMA ($5.07), with the EMA12 at $5.04 also pressing down from above. However, looking further down, the 50-day SMA is at $4.13 and the 200-day SMA at $2.38, with the price still well above these two mid-term anchors. The EMA26 is at $4.82, so the long-term uptrend structure has not been invalidated. The MACD fast and slow lines are tightly converged at 0.2146, with the histogram at zero, indicating a mid-term upward trend. Bollinger Band %B is 0.4393, with the price below the middle band at $5.07 and tilting toward the lower band at $4.51. The ATR of $0.55 means the average daily volatility is close to 11%, so key levels changing hands within a trading day is not surprising. On the news front, NEAR recently suffered a loss of about $3.8 million due to a vulnerability incident, causing the market to drop as much as 8.8%, which is the most direct short-term suppressive factor. On the derivatives side, there is a notable divergence: open interest dropped sharply by 13.96% in 24 hours to about $263 million. Such a scale of contraction usually corresponds to position liquidations or active deleveraging, but the 1-hour buy/sell ratio still reports 1.2146, indicating buyers have not fully exited in this deleveraging environment. Bears have not gained full control, and bulls lack enough fuel to trigger a reversal. The $5.00 level itself reflects a stalemate between bulls and bears. Conclusion first: $DOOD rose another 22.5% today, but it wasn't driven by buying pressure; rather, shorts were covering at this price level.
On 10-21, I wrote that it surged 78% in 8 hours; on 10-22, I noted it retraced 52.9% from 0.0049. This time, looking at the funding rate signs: DOOD settles every 4 hours, and the last four periods were all negative (04:00 -0.0173%, 08:00 -0.0196%, 12:00 -0.0169%), meaning shorts pay longs.
At 14:00, the 1H volume was $20.51 million, 16 times the previous bar; open interest went from $1.75 million at 13:00 to $3.29 million at 15:00, an 88% increase. This is not shorts retreating, but new shorts entering, paying more and more. 0.0169% every 4 hours, 6 times a day, annualized at 37%, so those chasing shorts at 0.002 are bleeding money.
Two points on the order book: OKX perpetual 24-hour volume is $39 million, 13 times the spot volume of $2.96 million; the real price discovery is on Upbit's KRW market, with 24-hour turnover of 35.1 billion KRW (about $26.5 million), exceeding its entire market cap, while Upbit's USDT market only trades $3 per day.
Circulating supply is 78%, down 89% from the October 2025 peak. With this kind of "KRW market pumping and perpetual shorts covering," should you follow or avoid?A week of growth raises a question: How did Unitree go from 57U to 100U?
In 7 trading days, it rebounded over 60%, approaching 100U intraday today, with market cap returning to 40 billion U. This surge relies on four key factors:
First, policy strikes. The first batch of humanoid robot national standards was approved, with Wang Xingxing himself as one of the drafters; nine departments issued documents promoting embodied intelligence in commercial trade scenarios.
Second, new product explosion. The H2-X "Kung Fu Legend" lasts 8 hours, can lift cars and kick in car doors. The video went viral overseas, with a US influencer with millions of followers saying sharply: "Much better than popcorn sellers"—referring to Tesla.
Third, industry resonance. Tesla officially confirmed Optimus entering mass production lines, aiming to double to one million units annually; OpenAI announced entering the robot manufacturing field.
Fourth, oversold correction. From the first day at 155U down to 57U, there was already a need for correction.
But two cold data points must be presented: the backflip stunt at the press conference broke a leg, and the video spread wider than the promo; PE ratio is already 430 times upwards, with the highest institutional target price at 52U, current price is twice that.
[Mid-to-long term outlook] The risk of chasing highs outweighs the opportunity. The real watershed is the Q3 report on October 29: whether shipment volume can climb and whether industrial and commercial revenue proportion can break 10%. Wang Xingxing himself said the industry's "ChatGPT moment" is still 2 to 3 years away—buying into this time gap requires patience to wait for performance to catch up with market value. $UNITREE $BTC #StockEarningsSeason #USStockEarnings
My judgment: $HOOD will most likely be another case of "decent numbers, but the stock price doesn't buy it."
Not bearish, but after its last 5 earnings reports, the stock dropped the next day by: -2.9%, -10.8%, -8.9%, -13.2%, -3.6%. Three of those were even better than expected.
This time the results come out around 4 AM Beijing time on Wednesday (10/28). The market expects EPS around $0.55 and revenue about $1.42 billion, with EPS still lower than last year's $0.61 for the same period. Options imply volatility roughly 8%–10%.
What I really want to see isn’t the EPS, but two small lines:
Crypto trading revenue was only $100 million last quarter, down 38%
Event contracts (prediction markets) were $156 million last quarter, already more profitable than crypto
A brokerage that got famous through crypto trading is now being overtaken by "guessing games and data predictions"—kind of surreal.
Price-wise, it closed near 95 on Friday, Binance perpetual futures dropped to 93.8 over the weekend, just below the 95 ascending trendline. If it really breaks, the next level to watch is around 85. $COIN, which also benefits from crypto traffic, reports after market close Thursday, so this week is quite lively.
Will it drop for the 6th time or finally rise this time? One word in the comments: up / down. I'll post a follow-up with the answer after the results.
Personal opinion, not investment advice The 80,000 regained over the weekend was lost again during Monday daytime
The closing post over the weekend just said the 80,000 was held, but it was proven wrong in less than a day.
During the Asian session on Monday, $BTC once fell below 79,400 USD, now around 80,000 USD (Beijing time 15:34) — the line regained over the weekend was lost again during Monday daytime. $ETH also slid to about 2,318 USD, not far from the 2,300 USD support; $XRP touched 1.27 USD intraday, close to the 1.26 USD line mentioned in the morning.
The trigger is not new, but compounded by: risk aversion ahead of the FOMC results early Thursday Beijing time, cooling AI trading dragging down risk assets, plus rumors that the US and Israel might strike Iran after the midterm elections. On the ETF side, about 770 million USD flowed out again over Thursday and Friday, with buying retreating first.
Yesterday it was said the cost line was underfoot, but today the line underfoot broke once. The real next round will be the US stock market opening on Monday and the FOMC early Thursday.周一美股开盘能不能拉起来？大饼卡在7.9w-8w区间，这里到底算不算底？直接说我的看法，今晚一定要盯紧，大行情说不定马上就来！ 周末消息面又开始搅动市场，关税加码、美债持续走高、原油扛着跌不动，美伊那边后续走向谁也说不准。 不少人还在等着BTC继续下探，看7.3w、7.5w的深度回调再进场，市场上恐慌的声音到处都是。但我一直在想，这么多人都等着同一个低点，真的会如愿给到这个机会吗？只要美联储态度松动、降息预期慢慢回暖，一波放量大阳线随时有可能拔起来。 我自己的判断，日内继续大跌的空间不大，眼下这波震荡，更像是最后的洗盘。 很多利空早就提前计价了，大选结果带来的预期、加息预期推高美元，资金跑去银行吃利息，这些早就反映在K线上面了，这也是最近空头很难再打出大跌的关键。 再看现货ETF资金，这十天的资金动静基本集中在IBIT，一半时间流出，周末更是转流出，整体小幅流入7400万，力度算不上强。FBTC持续流出、GBTC小幅赎回，大多是机构做对冲。真正的反转信号，得等连续两天稳定净流入，IBIT不再赎回，ARKB、摩根丹利这些产品同步进场才行。 重点看7.9w–8w，守住了，这里很大概率就是底Someone asked me, BTC has been hovering above 80000 all day, has the position actually moved? 🤔
Let me make a statement first: the large positions basically haven't moved; what's moving is the coins returning to the exchange.
Let's start with the evidence: BTC's open interest changed only 0.05% in a day, and just 0.02% in an hour — that's not movement, it's nailed in place; ETH shrank 1.17% in a day but recovered 0.31% in an hour, the only one among the top three major coins to turn positive in an hour; SOL shrank 0.41% in a day and dropped another 0.05% in an hour, still hovering; ZEC increased 2.87% in a day and also rose 0.90% in an hour, the only one increasing on both ends.
Looking at another line: the BTC wallet balance on exchanges increased by 954 coins, reaching a total of 2,499,000 coins. Coins are moving to convenient places, but positions are nailed down — I interpret this combination as big money placing chips on the table, not yet deciding whether to push or not.
The entire network's open interest shrank 0.32% in a day, remaining at 138.823 billion, and volume also shrank 7.31%, down to 122.44 billion; volume shrinks, positions steady, no one makes the first move.
So my answer is: before positions move, I won't chase ZEC's position increase, nor will I catch ETH's hourly positive flip; if the balance increases again, then I'll take a half-step bullish look. The answer isn't in the price changes, but in which direction the coins move. Until this line changes, my hands won't leave the table, and chips won't be pushed forward 👀On the morning of January 28, 2021, at 7 AM, someone opened a short position on DOGE at $0.025. By noon, he was only $0.0013 away from liquidation.
That day, DOGE surged from $0.008 to $0.028, more than tripling. His logic was straightforward: this coin basically has no value, so shorting it is like helping the price return to normal. Around 8 AM, the price did drop back near $0.02, and his unrealized profit was quite comfortable.
Then the price started pushing up. $0.03, $0.035, $0.04 — he kept adding to his position at a loss, with the last addition at $0.048. The position size kept increasing, the average entry price kept rising, and his unrealized loss grew from $10,000 to $20,000 and then to $50,000.
The liquidation price finally settled at $0.0883, leaving only about $30,000 to $40,000 margin in the account.
On Binance, the price had already broken through $0.0883. But he was using another exchange, where the highest price only reached about $0.087. Just missing that $0.001, the price then reversed. By 4 PM, it dropped back near $0.04, and he closed all his positions, accepting a $10,000 loss, then went to sleep.
Two days later, DOGE fell to $0.022. Holding on would not only have recovered his losses but also made a profit. He said he didn’t regret it at all because surviving that situation that day was already luck.
Being right about the direction doesn’t mean the position size was right. Just because it will fall doesn’t mean it should fall now. The market always has a next opportunity, but your capital might not last until then. 🔥 Lost $36.13 million! $ZEC's largest short whale surrenders, every last bit of bone scraps eaten clean
The most brutal short squeeze defeat has occurred. The largest on-chain ZEC short whale increased shorts from $400 all the way to nearly 40,000 coins, with a liquidation price of $2292. When ZEC surged to $1490, he closed all positions at market price within 1.5 hours, ultimately suffering a $36.13 million loss.
But the most heartbreaking part isn't the loss, it's his trump card: while closing the short positions, he didn't sell a single one of the 202,000 spot coins he held. The short positions lost $36 million, but the spot holdings had an unrealized profit of $221 million. He reversed positions and directly went long on 1,330 BTC.
The short isn't dead, just switched direction to long. The core driver for ZEC is the NU7 upgrade (block time cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds). After the short exit, funding rates once soared to an annualized 170%. If you're a retail trader still trying to short this extreme short squeeze with tens of thousands of dollars, your chips are just stepping stones on the whale's rebalancing path.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 It's just past 1 PM, I just finished eating and opened the market screen. Do you feel like BTC is now oscillating up and down and seems to have stabilized, making your hands itch to jump in and bottom-fish? Don't rush to act yet!
Look at the green bars for $BTC earlier on the chart: there was indeed a net inflow of fifty to sixty million in 1-hour and 2-hour intervals. Retail investors think the opportunity has arrived and rush in hard, but if you look further right at the long-term data, the 30-day contract net outflow reached as high as 7.682 billion, and spot also saw an outflow of 1.237 billion. The short-term inflows are all to lure retail investors to take the bags; big money started a frantic retreat a month ago.
Now look at $ETH — this data is even more painful! The short-term 1-hour just saw an inflow of over 80 million, but over 30 days, contract funds fled 8.595 billion, and spot outflow was 3.784 billion. The capital loss in ETH is even more severe than BTC. Every short-term rebound is providing liquidity for big money to unload.
Finally, $SOL is somewhat more resistant to decline, but the 30-day contracts also saw nearly 2 billion outflow. The overall trend remains outflow.
Summary: Don't be fooled by the green bars in just a few minutes; this is called giving you a little sweetness in the short term while hollowing out your principal in the long term. Big money is cashing out crazily on the rebound. Without real money propping it up, what will drive the price up? I firmly stay out of the market and watch. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI
*$GOOGL Q3 — Will It Beat? (Oct 28)*
*Est:* EPS $3.03 | Rev $127.92B (+25% YoY)
*Bull case:*
12Q beat streak. Q3 25: +27% beat ($2.87 vs $2.26).
Cloud $24.8B (+82%), backlog $514B. Search still +14.5% despite AI fears. Gemini 650M MAUs.
*Bear:*
CapEx $93B. Last beat stock -7%. Headline $9.11 EPS inflated by Anthropic gains.
*Verdict: 80% YES — Revenue beat likely. Cloud >35% = pump.*Brothers, the Ethereum Foundation is selling coins again, specifically dumping when the market is down.
On-chain data shows that addresses associated with the Foundation sold 2,785 ETH through CoW Swap two hours ago, cashing out $6.42 million.
This isn't the first time. Looking back at history:
In May 2021, they transferred 35,000 ETH to Kraken, then ETH dropped from 3500 to 1825;
Near the cycle peak in November 2021, they transferred another 20,000 ETH;
In August 2024, they transferred 35,000 ETH again, cashing out $94 million;
In July this year, they also sold 10,000 ETH OTC at an average price of 2572.
This time even earlier, on October 12, they deposited 4,393 ETH to Kraken at a price of 2534, which has now dropped to just over 2300.
The Foundation selling coins doesn't necessarily mean they are bearish, but they always choose to dump when the market is under pressure, which inevitably makes holders uneasy. You say they aren't dumping, but they sell every day; you say they are bearish, but it's not always actual selling. However, this supply pressure, combined with the continuous bleeding of ETFs, indeed makes it difficult for ETH to rebound in the short term.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC The biggest confidence in $SNDK lies in NBM's long-term locked orders, with tens of billions in guaranteed orders, so there's no fear of a sudden crash in spot prices. AI inference SSD demand remains tight, and buybacks are also supporting the bottom line, so the long-term logic hasn't collapsed.
However, the previous phase of sharp spot NAND price increases is over, and the pace of price hikes has slowed, putting pressure on spot gross margins. The market has already priced in a high valuation; earnings reports that just meet expectations won't drive prices up much. Only new significant long-term contracts, shipments, and gross margins exceeding expectations will trigger another rally; if guidance is weak, it's easy for positive sentiment to be realized and cause a sell-off.
Also, keep an eye on Micron and Hynix's earnings reports, as the storage sector is highly correlated.
In simple terms, this is not a bear market but a transition from accelerated growth to a high-level consolidation phase. It's suitable for light positions to play on upside surprises following the trend, but not for chasing highs with heavy positions and holding stubbornly. Focus on NBM's new orders, gross margins, and customer delivery pace. $CAP's largest open position on the field happens to be the most dangerous one right now! ⚠️
The long positions outnumber the shorts by more than half, making it the dominant force on the field.
But within such a large position, over 70% of the longs are losing money.
For the losing long positions, a slight price drop brings them closer to their stop-loss, and further down leads to liquidation.
Once these positions are liquidated, they become market sell orders; the more longs there are, the greater the selling pressure.
On the short side, over 60% are already in profit, so there's no rush to buy back.
Some think that because there are more longs and a bigger position, the price can't fall.
In fact, it's the opposite: the bigger the position and the more people losing, the harsher the stampede when prices drop.
The largest position could turn into a sell order at any moment, so it's wise to short first here!#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Folks, after the U.S. stock market closed on October 27, Robinhood (HOOD), the retail investor stronghold, is set to deliver its Q3 report. This earnings report is quite crucial; it will directly tell us whether retail investors in both the crypto space and U.S. stocks still have ammunition.
First, let's look at its last quarter's foundation, which was indeed strong. Q2 revenue was $1.31 billion, up 32% year-over-year, and net client deposits hit a record high of $22 billion. Amid the turbulence in both U.S. stocks and crypto, attracting so much money shows that retail investor enthusiasm is still alive.
But for this Q3 report, the market is focusing on two things:
First, has trading activity declined or not? Bitcoin has been repeatedly testing the 80,000 level recently, and many altcoins have fallen so much they’re barely recognizable. If retail investors are trapped or scared to move, Robinhood’s crypto trading fee income will definitely shrink. This is its core business; if the data looks bad, the stock price will take a hit immediately.
Second, how are the increments from new businesses? Everyone knows Robinhood is now working on on-chain wallets, prediction markets, and even tokenized U.S. stocks. If these new stories are all hype with little real revenue contribution, the market won’t buy it.
If its trading data remains strong, it means retail investors are still frantically bottom-fishing or speculating, so Bitcoin’s support below still has resilience. If its data bombs out, it means retail investors are truly drained and have no money to enter the market, so Bitcoin will have to keep enduring. $BTC $BTC
To conclude first: I lean towards 80,000 being a topping rather than a bottom. The reasoning is straightforward—current price around 80,100, 24-hour low at 79,322, already had a wick once, and the data from OKX and Binance align; the rebound to 80,900 lacks strength, volume can't keep up.
However, with Microsoft, Google, and Amazon earnings reports all coming this week, the market will likely be shaken around, so I don't take this conclusion as absolute, just a way to keep myself in check.
A bit of cold news keeps me holding a base position: developers are drafting BIP-360 and BIP-361, specifically to counter quantum computing, and they've planned migration paths for old addresses. Not many took this seriously a year ago.
On-chain, there's a guy using 30x leverage long on 795 BTC, who added margin a couple of days ago and is floating a loss of over 800,000 USD. I can't control others; near 80,000, I only keep a base position, no additional contracts.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Don't rush to celebrate; the real test comes after the data
This week's market, what I worry about most is one scenario: everyone stays up late waiting for the Fed's decision, and when it comes out, they feel relieved as if the tension is finally over, but then the next day's data drags the market harshly back to reality.
According to the schedule, after the October rate meeting concludes, the U.S. will also release GDP and personal spending data, including the core PCE inflation indicator. This means the rate decision is just the first boot; the data that truly determines the subsequent policy direction is still to come. The market's first reaction to the statement will most likely have to undergo a "rework" after the second round of data.
If the decision is dovish, the market just breathes a sigh of relief, but if the following inflation data unexpectedly strengthens, those risk assets that just rose could come under pressure again at any time. Conversely, if the press conference is hawkish but the subsequent data clearly cools down, the initial pessimism may also be quickly corrected.
So, don't be quick to label the first big bullish candle after the rate decision. The real game often only begins after all the data has landed. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC vs $ETH : Everyone Is Betting, Nobody Is Winning
The bears are clearly in control of positioning, but there's something funny about this market.
Even with prices falling, a huge amount of short capital is still underwater.
And the bulls? They're having an even worse time.
My view: ETH looks more vulnerable, while BTC is showing signs of stronger short-term buying interest.
But I wouldn't underestimate the possibility of a sudden squeeze.
When both sides are losing money.Most traders have experienced this: after three consecutive stop-losses, the fourth trade automatically becomes smaller. It's not due to disciplined position reduction, but a psychological barrier. This isn't strong risk control; it's the mental accounting at work.
Mental accounting is a concept from behavioral economics where people categorize money in their minds. The same $100 feels different when earned versus when it comes from a paycheck. The same applies to trading $SOL contracts: the money in the account is divided into virtual accounts—one for principal, one for unrealized profits, and one for losses from stop-losses. After three consecutive losses, the mental number in the stop-loss account grows larger, so the fourth trade is no longer sized based on total capital but on what's left.
For example, with a $10,000 account, if the first three trades each used $1,000 long and all stopped out, the account has $7,000 left. Logically, the fourth trade could still use $1,000, but most people only dare to use $500 or less. It's not risk control; it's the feeling that $3,000 has already been lost and can't be lost again. However, the lost $3,000 and the remaining $7,000 are actually the same money, but mental accounting labels them differently: the lost amount is sunk cost, and the remainder is break-even capital. Once labeled, decision-making distorts—positions that should be held are let go, and stop-losses that should be cut are held onto.
The test is simple: look back at your fourth trade after three consecutive losses—was the position size smaller than the previous three? If yes, mental accounting is at work. It doesn't show in trading records but runs in the background, affecting the feel of every order. The real comparison should be between current total capital and the risk of the trade, not how much was lost before.$ETH $BTC $SOL BTC has bottomed out and rebounded in this round, showing obvious consolidation characteristics in its pattern. The price dipped to a low of 79,431, then quickly pulled back above the 80,000 mark; ETH similarly fell below 2,300 before recovering again. Looking at the market, only ZEC shows stronger resistance to decline, slightly retreating with the overall market today, but the weekly chart still maintains an uptrend.
Fundamentally, there is a lack of strong short-term catalysts. Standard Chartered Bank's stablecoin project announcement has been temporarily postponed. Waiting for large-scale institutional funds to enter and take over will still require time.
The core issue lies in trading volume. BTC's single-day turnover is only 16.2 billion, with volume sharply shrinking. This rebound lacks incremental capital inflow; it is mostly internal funds playing back and forth, mutually harvesting.
My thinking is very clear: in the current market, stick to watching more and trading less.
If BTC cannot hold above 80,500 and ETH cannot rise above 2,350, the current stage is a meaningless choppy market, where entering positions easily leads to stop losses and getting hit from both sides.
A low-volume, choppy market is the most patience-draining. At this stage, it is best to remain on the sidelines and patiently wait for a clear trend before taking action.