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The probability that the Fed won't raise rates next week is 90%, but Bitcoin crashed first as a warning.
CME data shows a 90.6% chance of no change in October. Logically, bad news should be good news, but BTC was once hammered down to 79,000 over the weekend and has barely climbed back to 81,000 now. Why? Because Wall Street insiders are focused on December—100 economists unanimously bet that rates will still rise by the end of the year.
Don't be fooled by the phrase "no rate hike." September just had a round of hikes, and inflation expectations have soared to the highest since May. What does this mean? Even if the Fed softens its tone next week, its actions will remain tough. What the crypto market fears most is not the rate hike itself, but the expectation that "high interest rates will have to be endured for a long time."
$BTC A friend who does arbitrage shut down his entire system today and withdrew all his money.
He was doing long-tail asset arbitrage on Binance Futures with very strict rules: short positions only on Binance, automatic position reduction by the program starting at 4x liquidation price, and margin kept up to 10x. Sounds pretty stable.
But this time with IRYS, it all went wrong. The futures price was over 50% higher than the spot price, with no hard cap, and the short position was directly liquidated by a price surge. He said there was already a 5% positive premium when entering, thinking it was leftover from short liquidations, but it unexpectedly surged all the way to 50%.
His current conclusion is that this set of rules is meaningless: reducing positions at 4x and keeping 10x margin only lowers the probability of extreme cases, but if it really happens, you still suffer big losses. Traditional financial futures all have a price deviation hard cap.
My view is simpler. Arbitrage profits come from price differences, and the premise is that prices have a boundary. Who sets the boundary? The platform. If the platform doesn’t intervene, your model is empty, no matter how diversified your positions are.
One more thing, Bitget previously had a large deviation in the TUT futures index, directly risk-controlled the market maker, and even compensated them. For the same extreme market conditions, the handling was very different.
For those doing arbitrage, ask before entering: who controls the price ceiling of this pool? Today I listened to a friend who does arbitrage review his trades; he shut down the system and withdrew all his money.
The Binance IRYS contract price was more than 50% higher than the spot price, without any price cap, and the short positions were pushed to liquidation all the way. His originally set 4x automatic deleveraging and 10x margin reserve were useless against this tug-of-war.
He made a comparison, saying that Bitget's previous TUT contract index was ridiculously off, and the risk control market maker directly compensated users.
In the same extreme market conditions, one side lost money, while the other didn't even offer an explanation.$XAU Gold bears, take note! The latest U.S. intelligence reveals potential new developments in the Iran situation!
On October 24, Reuters disclosed: U.S. intelligence agencies warned that Iran's plans to attack U.S. personnel overseas have entered a more advanced stage, and the U.S. is reducing staff at some Middle East diplomatic missions.
Note: This is currently an intelligence alert and does not mean an attack has occurred!
I believe gold is facing a tug-of-war between two forces:
Risk-off logic: If U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, safe-haven funds may drive gold to rebound quickly, squeezing short positions.
Interest rate logic: If oil prices rise further pushing inflation expectations higher, U.S. Treasury real yields strengthen, and gold may continue to face pressure.
My judgment: Short-term risks for gold are rising, but a trend reversal cannot be confirmed yet. Especially for highly leveraged short positions, the biggest threat is not a normal rebound but price jumps and stop-loss slippage triggered by sudden news.
Key factors to watch next: U.S.-Iran follow-up actions, international oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. Treasury real yields.
Gold bears, do you choose to hold on or protect your profits now?
For market communication only, not investment advice. #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ #WillFedPauseInOctober
THE FED MAY PAUSE, BUT INFLATION REMAINS THE PROBLEM.
Weak jobs data supports a pause, but stubborn inflation limits the Fed’s room to ease policy.
For Bitcoin, a pause alone isn’t enough. Markets need signs of easier financial conditions and a genuine shift toward rate cuts.
My take: Watch inflation, Treasury yields, and the Fed’s guidance. The difference between a pause and a pivot matters.
$BTC $BTC BTC rebound bull trap is not over yet: after breaking below 79220, 73000 will be the real nightmare for bulls
I don't consider the current sideways movement around 80432 of BTC as a bottoming out, but rather as a breather before a breakdown. The daily price is pressed below the EMA short-to-mid-term resistance zone, the MACD death cross has persisted for 26 candles, and the bearish momentum bars continue to expand; the CCI-style sentiment observation also shows that the market has not formed a strong oversold recovery. The pullback structure after the previous high of 84898 has not been reversed, the rebound volume hasn't kept up, and today's volume is only about 15% of the 7-day average volume. This kind of low-volume sideways movement is perfect for creating a false bottom-fishing illusion.
More importantly, the funds have not recognized the so-called reversal. Large funds had a net outflow of about 1682 BTC on the day, with a net outflow rate of 11.85%, and the OBV logic still favors seller dominance; the price approached the 7-day low of 79220 but there was no active buying volume to support it. The most common mistake retail investors make is to shout "reversal" at a small bullish candle, rush to add positions when it dips a bit, and end up wrapping their holding fantasies into long-term beliefs. The market never rewards emotions; the more crowded the bulls are, the easier liquidity becomes fuel for a downside crash.
When news and macro expectations do not provide enough support for risk assets, BTC's high valuation requires real capital relay rather than community slogans. My bearish view is very clear: once 79220 is effectively broken, 73000 will become the next downside target that must be faced.Last night around 11 PM, I watched ETH fall harder in a single hour than it had the previous morning. My first thought was that a massive wave of liquidations had hit the market. But the OKX ETH perpetual data told a different story. Open interest fell by only around 1,000 during that hour, compared with a decline of roughly 12,000 during the previous morning’s sell-off. That’s less than one-tenth of the earlier drop. Even more interesting, long participation increased during the decline, and op#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Nomura Securities believes that market concerns about AI investment prospects are "overreactions." The shortage of memory chips will continue until 2028, and the current valuation of the memory sector is severely undervalued. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index even once set the longest consecutive decline record since the 2008 financial crisis📉
Nomura maintains a "Buy" rating for $SAMSUNG and $SKHYNIX, with target prices of 670,000 KRW and 4,700,000 KRW respectively.
On October 23, SK Hynix launched the iHBM supply chain collaboration, aiming to secure dominance in AI memory storage🔗
Exposed AI memory roadmap: 1δ node, HBM5/6, G11 NAND advancing simultaneously🚀
What’s truly worth noting is the difference in pace:
SK Hynix is doing "supply chain collaboration" (binding customers), while $xMU is "exposing the roadmap" (showcasing technology). One is competing for customers, the other is showing off technology.
For the HBM4 generation, SK Hynix’s share is declining, Samsung is chasing, and Micron is betting on the next generation. Micron’s HBM4 share is currently only about 10%, but its roadmap is the most aggressive.
Technology leadership and market share are two different things in the HBM track👀The DeFi sector showed an intriguing divergence today: $UNI and $AAVE both rebounded simultaneously intraday, while the true weekly outperformer was $CRV, which dipped slightly intraday but gained over 8% in seven days, leaving the other two established blue chips behind. This is the first time short-term momentum and weekly strength have diverged in direction, a classic signal that capital is redeploying within the sector. Let's first look at the two intraday rebounders. $AAVE is currently around $148, up about 1.6% in 24 hours, but still down about 2.5% over seven days, indicating this rebound is more of an oversold correction than a trend reversal. The first support lies between $145–147, with resistance at $150–152; only a firm break above $158 would substantially improve the structure. If it falls below $144, watch for a retest of the $140 area. $UNI is currently about $7.07, up roughly 2% in 24 hours, nearly flat over seven days. The previous support zone is $6.9–7, with major resistance at $7.3–7.45; only breaking above $7.6 would suggest continued recovery, while falling below $6.8 would require reassessing the short-term direction. The real highlight is $CRV. Currently priced around $0.37, it has slightly pulled back in 24 hours but clearly leads on the weekly chart, showing stronger elasticity than the two sector leaders. The first support is at $0.358–0.364, with resistance at $0.39–0.40; only breaking above $0.41 would open upward potential. If it falls below $0.35$AKE Long Position Graveyard: Smaller Coins Face Even More Brutal Deleveraging
AKE's futures open interest (OI) surged 90.5% in the past two days, with a large influx of leveraged long positions. The result? After the October 21 unlock, the first two unlocks of AKE dropped 22% and 49% within a week respectively. Although there was a brief rebound this time, the futures volume being 93 times that of the spot market structurally doomed it to a stampede.
How was this pit dug: The unlock brought continuous selling pressure, liquidity is thin (top 100 wallets control 99%), so a small number of sell orders can break through the buy side. It was smashed from 0.03131 down to 0.02891 with almost no rebound in between.
I picked up this short position at the bottom of the pit. 20x leverage, opened at 0.03131, now at 0.02891, floating profit +153.30%. But I’m not greedy.
Has it stabilized? No.
AKE: 0.028-0.0289 is the recent support zone; if broken, look to 0.0228 (weekly low). Above, 0.030 is a psychological barrier, 0.03131 is the entry/stop-loss price; if it can’t reclaim that, the pit digging continues.
This is not a bottom, it’s a "longs blown out waiting for shorts to blow" turnover pit. The short side with 20x leverage only has a 4-5% margin for error. Before FOMC, don’t rush to bottom-fish, wait for signals. $BTC $ETH #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ GOJIPOWER 6 hours ago
...
Bitcoin spot at $80,840, essentially flat on the day (-0.05%). The flow data underneath is not flat.
ETFs: -$137.9M (-1,694 BTC), the second straight outflow day, after -$635.6M the day before. But the five-day total is still +$301.2M, with single days above $500M on Oct 19 and Oct 21. This is churn, not a one-way exit.
Reading yesterday alone gets the sign wrong.#BTCETFFlowSwings $BTC $BTC eyes 79220, $ETH targets 2282, $ZEC retests 1118: Do bulls still dare to mistake a slow decline for a takeoff?
I don't consider the rebound a reversal. BTC is currently at 80500, still below EMA7 at 81864 and EMA25 at 82947, with MACD in a death cross for the 26th day and a net daily capital outflow of 1697 BTC; ETH is at 2339, with EMA7 pressing above 2400, SuperTrend maintaining a downtrend, and a 30-day decline of 12.95%. Although ZEC retains a short-term MACD golden cross, its price remains below EMA7 and EMA25, and the so-called "strong catch-up rally" looks more like high-level chips seeking a buyer. If the rebound doesn't recover the cost band, don't rush to hype it up.
The crowdedness of the futures market is even more worrisome: BTC, ETH, and ZEC funding rates are all positive, approximately 0.006%, 0.0078%, and 0.0054% respectively, meaning bulls are still paying holding costs; among them, ETH's long positions account for 75.45% of the entire market, and the position volume slightly increases when the price weakens. Explaining every drop as "the whales handing you a ride" essentially hands over stop-losses to fantasy—holding positions is not faith, and leverage won't automatically become a bottom just because the comment section shouts loudly.
On the news front, on October 24, the market saw about $192 million in liquidations within an hour, mostly longs, indicating risk appetite$ETH $BTC $SOL BTC holds above 80,000, can we rest easy with the rebound?
Reviewing last week's data: BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $301 million for the week, but funds clearly fled in the latter half of the market, with a cumulative net outflow of $774 million over the last two trading days; ETH ETFs experienced a continuous net outflow of $221 million throughout the week.
Price-wise, the market seems somewhat recovered, but the capital flow has not fully turned bullish.
Key resistance levels to watch closely: BTC 82,000, ETH 2,400, BNB 750, SOL 105. With next week's PCE data and consecutive Federal Reserve decisions, whether the rebound can sustain depends not on briefly holding support, but on whether there is sustained buying momentum after breaking through resistance levels. Just picked up an iced Americano made with profits from a PUMP short, and casually opened OKX's prediction market, instantly making my coffee taste less appealing.
Look at this data: a real cash injection of 4.75 million dollars. The probability of a “Democratic sweep of both chambers” has surged to 76%, while another scenario, “Republican Senate + Democratic House,” stands at 66%.
Let's hardcore review the macro game behind this:
This isn’t about votes; it’s clearly the “ledger of life and death” for crypto regulation in the coming years! Recently, the White House’s stance on digital assets has been wavering, and the SEC’s sword still hangs overhead. The millions in trading volume in the prediction market are all big players hedging policy risks in advance. Once politicians turn hostile, all technical analysis and small-time manipulators will be crushed under the macro iron fist.
We fight in the candlesticks, while they roll dice in Washington. Before the macro test lands, we really need to be cautious. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $SNDK
“Friends, what do you think this two-chamber election will bring? A bull market for crypto, or a regulatory crackdown?” 4-hour inflow cannot change the 30-day outflow
$BTC spot 4-hour net inflow is $4.54 million.
Contract 4-hour net inflow is $281 million.
How this number is calculated: 4 hours and 30 days are not the same.
4 hours shows who is buying on the day.
30 days shows where the money has moved over the month.
The two directions are opposite, indicating short-term replenishment.
Where this money comes from: $ETH 30-day contract net outflow is $8.21 billion.
$SOL and $ZEC 30-day contracts are also still in net outflow.
Large funds have not returned.
The small inflow in 4 hours looks more like a low-level rebound grab.
It is not a trend reversal.
Mid-term funds are still flowing out.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#$BTC $ETH BTC fell below 80,000, and the market is starting to worry again about the "midterm election curse."
Historically, there have indeed been multiple major pullbacks in election years, but this year's timeline is different: the low point in July was about $57,850, already completing a deep correction in advance, followed by a rebound of nearly 40%.
So I am more focused on the cost zone rather than just watching November 3rd.
Short-term outlook:
80,000 → 78,000
The truly critical area:
73,000–75,000
This is also close to the cost zone for short-term holders and institutions. If it only pulls back and holds, the bull market structure still has a chance to continue; if it truly breaks below, then the trend needs to be reassessed.
Elections may bring volatility, but what ultimately determines the strength of the market is whether the key cost zone can hold.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
##SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings Brothers, this ETH smart money data clearly explains the current long-short situation.
Overall structure: 2,175 whale traders, total positions of 1.62 billion U. The nominal long-short ratio is only 23.96%—shorts account for 76%, with 1,382 shorting and 793 going long; the number and volume of shorts overwhelmingly surpass the longs.
On the long side: positions total 313 million U, average entry price 2863, while ETH is currently only 2346. This means the average cost for longs is 2863, now floating a loss of 69.13 million U, with a profit ratio of only 25.97%. In other words, these longs are all trapped above 2800 at high levels, deeply stuck with an 18% loss, unwilling to cut losses but suffering by holding on.
On the short side: positions total 1.3 billion U, average entry price 2311, now at 2346. Shorts have an average floating loss of 19.42 million U but still maintain a profit ratio of 65.26%. This indicates most shorts opened near the low at 2311; although there was a rebound, overall they are still profitable. The short volume is four times that of the longs, showing a very clear direction for big money.
The most critical signal: both sides are floating losses. Longs lose 69.13 million, shorts lose 19.42 million. The price is exactly stuck in the middle—longs feel it has fallen enough and shouldn’t drop further, shorts feel the rebound is about done and it’s time to continue shorting.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $BTC $ETH $WLD institutions directly deposited 19.7 million WLD to the exchange, the intention to dump is nothing but obvious.
Around 0.45 below is piled with the bulls' leverage death trap, the funds taking over simply can't hold. The main force just needs to push down once more with the trend to directly blow up this batch of long positions.
Don't force AI narratives to catch the flying knife, if this level breaks, it will be a stampede.
#WLD
$WLD
👇$SNDK
SanDisk peaked at 2354 in June, but closed at 1238 last Friday, losing half its value. Today Nomura jumped out saying the storage shortage will last until 2028, and the sector valuation is seriously underestimated.
In the same week, one says it's seriously undervalued, another drops by half; this situation itself is worth pondering. Nomura's argument is valid, NAND prices are indeed rising, and AI storage is a real demand; JPMorgan also said a few days ago that the adjustment does not change the fundamentals. They collectively characterize the market's AI spending concerns as an overreaction.
The tokenized SNDK on OKX is now at 1238.9, closely tracking the US stock market. These kinds of stock tokens follow the US stock market opening; a gap down at night makes the opening tough. I always keep my position smaller than my crypto holdings. Anyway, I don't really want to watch the late-night action.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Brothers, Bitcoin has been oscillating back and forth between $80,000 and $86,000 for 9 consecutive days, with volatility gradually decreasing.
The data is very clear: the difference between the highest and lowest prices in the past 30 days has been compressed from 13% down to just 6%. Simply put, no one in the market dares to actively push the price up, nor does anyone aggressively dump; both bulls and bears are watching and waiting.
Yesterday, $BTC hit a nearly 30-day low, but fortunately it held at the 365-day moving average and even rebounded slightly. This annual moving average is currently the most important defensive support.
Experienced traders know a rule: during such prolonged sideways consolidation with narrowing volatility, a big move usually follows—either a breakout upward or a breakdown downward.
Right now, focus on two key points: to trigger an upward rally, the price must firmly break above 86,000; if it falls below the 365-day moving average, this round of support will fail, and a new downtrend is likely to start.
This frustrating consolidation phase is the easiest trap for futures traders. Many get bored with the lack of movement and keep opening and closing positions repeatedly, but when a strong one-sided move finally comes, they risk liquidation.
At this stage, don’t rush to bet on direction. Watch more and act less before a breakout. Wait for $BTC to choose a direction before making moves, and never heavily bet on guessing the rise or fall. $ETH $SOL
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ 1: The ChiNext Index follows the pattern of crashes after the 2015 and 2020 bull markets. Late August 2015 and late April 2022, in terms of timing and magnitude, this time it's late October.
2: ChiNext Index decline ratio 1:1
3: RSI oversold
4: This Thursday and Friday there are Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings. Once the meetings conclude, the impact will be clear.
5: The mid-year report disclosures will end by the end of this month. Basically, most major news and uncertainties will have passed,
so, personally, I think if the A-share market retests the bottom next week, boldly increase your position.$BTC
The ETF saw $773 million withdrawn over the past two days, with $635 million out on Thursday alone, the largest single-day outflow since June. By past experience, this volume should have already smashed through, yet BTC is still hovering around 80400.
I recognize the 80,000 level; the claim about institutional cost is not exaggerated. There was over 450 million liquidated in 24 hours, 86% of which were longs holding on. The initial drop washed out the chasing longs, but the price did not continue to collapse.
These days it’s grinding between 79,000 and 82,000. I tend to think it’s a turnover rather than a sell-off—the ETF is selling short-term allocation positions, while on-chain signals are actually accumulating. Of course, I was optimistic like this last time and got proven wrong, so I’ll wait and see; if it really breaks 79,000, I’ll admit I was wrong.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ On October 28, most likely nothing will happen. The CME data is clear — the probability of maintaining the interest rate in October is 90.6%, and the probability of a rate hike is less than 10%. The market has long priced in "no change this time." You also know the habit after Wash took office: no forward guidance. He most likely won't say at the press conference, "We'll reassess in December," nor will he say, "Inflation is still too high." He will say a bunch of things that leave you guessing. So the "no rate hike" on 10.28 is not a dovish victory. It hands the trigger to December. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December is already 74.8%. Goldman Sachs' judgment: most officials support hiking every other meeting, once in December and once in March next year. October 28 is not the starting gun. It is the action of chambering a bullet. On October 29, Strategy's earnings report. Everyone is guessing "how much BTC MSTR bought again." That is not important at all. What matters is 848,500 bitcoins at an average price of $75,446, with a total cost of $64 billion. Where is BTC now? Around $80,800, with $81,000 having fallen from support to resistance, showing a completely bearish trend on the hourly level. That means Strategy's book profit margin has less than a 7% buffer left. If it falls a bit more, the world's largest bitcoin treasury company will switch from "unrealized gains" to "unrealized losses." What is even more worth watching is: the financing repurchase preferred stock (STRC) is consuming cash flow. That week in October, the publicBitGo, Valour, Bitget all listed? Don't get excited—Core doesn't have heavy VC holdings, only "business cooperation"
Many promotions package institutions like BitGo, Valour, Bitget as signals of heavy capital holdings, but the essence must be distinguished: Core has been Fair Launch since its inception, with no traditional VC private rounds, no top funds investing in the project or locking low-price chips.
BitGo is a custody service provider, offering BTC dual staking custody channels; Valour issues a London-listed BTC staking ETP, using Core's staking mechanism underneath, earning asset management service fees; Bitget belongs to exchange ecosystem cooperation, launching trading and staking products. Their core cooperation target is BTC staking business, not continuous buying or supporting CORE tokens.
Such business cooperation can be terminated at any time, and institutions do not bear the obligation to support the coin price. Although BTCS has a small allocation of CORE in the treasury from the secondary market, the scale is limited and cannot be considered a strategic heavy holding.
Combined with the current situation: official nodes continue to withdraw, SatPay is long delayed, on-chain fees are almost zero, and ghost chip selling pressure remains unresolved. Institutional infrastructure cooperation is a plus, but it cannot be taken as a guaranteed trump card for a bull market rise.$ETH December rate hike expectations are back on the table, and I've heard this so often my ears have calluses.
The transmission chain has three links: stronger rate hike expectations push the dollar and yields up, and risk assets collectively get pressured. The US stock market is closed over the weekend, $ETH is holding around 2350, just under 2350 dollars, 13% lower than 30 days ago, but 24% higher than 90 days ago. You read that right, those who bought in Q3 are currently in profit; the pullback just wiped out the 7-day floating gains.
The trouble is on the spot ETF side, where there has been net outflow recently, with money pulling out. $ETH Funding rates remain positive, BTC and ETH rebounds are just opportunities to reduce positions
After BTC broke the key support at 81,000, the funding rate still stayed positive, which is very telling. The market has broken down and weakened, but long positions have not been fully cleared, with serious leftover leverage, making the market structure impure.
ETH's trend is even weaker, continuously hitting new lows and showing a clear stepwise decline. The current slight stabilization is just a brief pause during the downtrend, not a true bottom.
The core issue: prices have dropped, yet longs are still stubbornly paying the funding rate.
A large number of long positions are trapped and not exiting; any slight rebound allows trapped longs to escape, while shorts add positions accordingly, resulting in heavy selling pressure above.
A true bottom signal requires the funding rate to turn negative and leverage to be fully cleaned out, which has not happened at all.
BTC no longer has its previous resilience and is weakening entirely in line with market risk appetite. ETH's continuous weakness drags down overall market sentiment, with funds generally seeking safety and high-volatility altcoins left unbacked.
The market won't see an extreme one-sided crash, but the overall rhythm has weakened: rebounds are shorter and less sustained, making chasing highs very low in cost-effectiveness.
In the short term, if BTC stabilizes above 81,000 again, it will trigger short covering and a technical rebound.
But everyone must distinguish: this is a correction, not a reversal.
Do not bottom-fish or chase the rally.
Every rebound is the best opportunity to reduce positions and hedge risk. Good news about AI chips was circulating in the morning, but by the afternoon, coins labeled with AI had fallen even harder.
$AI traded over $74 million and was still in the top ten by volume, yet it dropped more than 5% in 24 hours; $NEAR traded $115 million ranking 5th, down about 3%. In contrast, $ZEC, which is not labeled AI, sat at 4th in volume and was still rising.
My judgment: It's not that the AI narrative is broken, but money is withdrawing from the labels. BTC is still hovering around 80,600 with almost no movement, indicating this is not a market-wide panic but a targeted retreat—pricing power is returning to volume, and labels no longer provide a premium.
Signals you can watch yourself: labeled coins still rank in the top ten by volume, but their prices continuously underperform the market, meaning the premium is retreating.
The above is my personal market observation, data as of today, and does not constitute investment advice; crypto assets are highly volatile, please make independent judgments and bear your own risks (DYOR).
For the AI coins that have fallen, do you dare to catch them or just watch first?
#欧意星球 #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 #加密市场The attitude of Trump expressed in this report by Jin10 can actually be ignored; it records the statements Trump made when questioned by reporters during his campaign rally in Florida on October 24.
Especially since Trump was in the campaign stage, the reliability of all statements must be seriously weakened, as they are ultimately for political vote service and do not represent his true thoughts.
However, another piece of news might have a slightly bullish impact on Brent — the Iranian ambassador to Pakistan clearly stated that Pakistan Army Marshal Munir's visit to Tehran this Monday was as a messenger.
But Iran stated that this time it was Iran sending a message to Trump through Munir, not Munir bringing a message from Trump.
Why is this bullish for crude oil? Because this news proves that the communication channel between the US and Iran still exists, but there has been no positive progress in the situation; having a channel but no progress means both sides' attitudes, conditions, and thresholds are tougher, which is indeed unfavorable for the US-Iran situation!#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 The Nasdaq fell 2.6%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 6.8%, BTC fell to 81,000, with $260 million liquidated in 24 hours, 90% of which were long positions.
Why does the crypto market collapse as soon as tech stocks cough?
Because all the leverage is on the same side.
This round isn’t a problem with crypto itself, it’s being dragged down.
Do you still think BTC is a safe-haven asset? #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 Raising money by issuing preferred shares to buy Bitcoin was a popular tactic for a while, but preferred shares require continuous interest payments. MicroStrategy recently spent a large sum to buy back preferred shares, but they actually bought very few coins.3. The real highlight this week is the FOMC
In the early morning of October 29, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Although 94% of economists expect the rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, the real focus is on the path in December.
The new Fed Chair, Powell, is famously hawkish, and the market is guessing whether he will leave room for a rate hike in December. Once a hawkish signal is released, U.S. Treasury yields will continue to rise, and Bitcoin will face pressure.
4. Which is more resilient, BTC or ETH?
To be honest, ETH is clearly weaker than BTC in this round. ETH ETFs have continuous outflows, on-chain activity is cooling down, and the 2300 level has been repeatedly tested.
Although BTC has also fallen, there is relatively strong buying support near 80,000, and funds will step in if it drops further.
What’s the outlook?
In the short term, the 80,000 level is very critical. If the Middle East situation continues to worsen or the FOMC turns hawkish, BTC may test the 78,000-79,000 range. Conversely, if the situation eases and the Fed holds steady, it is highly likely that BTC will stabilize and rebound near 80,000. Brothers, the market this weekend is quite interesting. BTC directly fell below $80,000, hitting a low of 79,700, marking a new low in over a month. ETH didn't fare much better, once dropping below 2,300.
Today, let's review what has happened recently to see the real reasons behind this drop and what to expect next.
1. The Middle East situation is the direct trigger
The US has taken significant actions these past two days, withdrawing diplomatic personnel and military bases from the Middle East. Embassies in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Lebanon, Qatar, and Jordan have all entered restricted operation status.
Intelligence reports say Iran's assassination plans targeting Americans have reached an advanced stage, and Trump has warned that the US might strike Iran again at any time.
With this geopolitical risk, the first reaction of capital is to flee. Bitcoin, as a risk asset, was hit first.
2. ETF funds are fleeing ahead of prices
A key detail in this drop is that ETF funds are moving faster than prices.
On October 22, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $635 million in one day. On October 24, another $227 million flowed out. Ethereum ETFs were even worse, with $320 million outflow in a week, with redemption intensity ten times that of BTC.A new week begins, and the Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting from October 27 to 28 (Eastern Time), a macro event that cannot be ignored in this market cycle. Looking back to the last time: on September 16, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, at which time $BTC was around $76,000. Now it is around $80,000, about 6% higher. Three key points: 1. Inflation: September forecasts show the median PCE inflation for 2026 at 3.7%, still significantly above the 2% target. 2. Oil prices: Due to the Iran war, Brent crude has risen above $117 per barrel, which will increase inflation concerns. 3. Wording: Analysts often say that the "surprise" in the rate decision usually has a greater impact than the decision itself. The market cares more about whether rate hikes will continue afterward. I haven't found reliable real-time data on how much the market is betting this time; please refer to CME FedWatch for specific probabilities and don't trust second-hand screenshots. My view: volatility on the night of the decision is usually large because macro news impacts the stock market, the dollar, and cryptocurrencies simultaneously. If you trade contracts, reducing leverage before and after the decision is more practical than guessing whether rates will be raised. What signal do you think the Fed will send this time? Will $BTC try to fall below $80,000 again because of this? Let's discuss in the comments. The above is my personal opinion and a summary of public information, not investment advice; please judge risks yourself. #FederalReserve #F Three Faces of Buybacks — Burn, Retain, and Void
"Buyback" is a frequently mentioned keyword in current narratives, but ultimately, are tokens burned, retained, or decoupled from revenue?
$HYPE is the most extreme example: about 97%–99% of fees are used by the aid fund to buy HYPE on the open market and permanently burn it, with cumulative burns exceeding $4 billion. The mechanism chain is very short; burning directly returns value, and buybacks are almost synchronized with protocol revenue.
$JUP presents a different scenario: the protocol once used 50% of fees for buybacks and locking, with cumulative investment exceeding $70 million. However, during the same period, JUP’s price dropped nearly 89% from its peak. The co-founder publicly questioned the effectiveness of buybacks in January 2026, as locking and retention rather than burning reduced the certainty of supply contraction.
$GRASS shows a third state: revenue in the first half of 2026 was about $14.53 million, with a full-year guidance of $65–75 million, but all revenue flows to subsidiaries DataCo and SearchCo, and token holders have no direct claim. The scale of open market buybacks of GRASS is minimal.
Summary:
Beyond the mere presence or absence of buybacks, it is more important to verify whether tokens are burned or retained, and whether revenue itself is decoupled from the token. HYPE’s burns are immediate and continuous; JUP’s buybacks come with locking and ongoing selling pressure tug-of-war; GRASS’s revenue growth has yet to be transmitted to the token through mechanisms. These three represent three different stages of value capture.On October 25, according to PANews, analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted a reminder: BTC's volatility range is continuously narrowing, with the high-low price difference over the past 30 days compressed from 13% to 6%, and the price trapped between $80,000 and $86,000 for 9 consecutive days. The spring is being compressed tighter and tighter; a breakout is only a matter of time. ════════════ 📊【Market Overview】 🟠 Current BTC price: $80,695｜24h -0.11%, 7d -1.15% 👑 BTC market dominance: 60.73%, funds still concentrated in BTC 🌍 Total network market cap: $2.65 trillion｜24h -0.78% 😐 Fear & Greed Index: 54, neutral, sentiment neither hot nor cold Yesterday, the intraday price once touched the 365-day simple moving average before rebounding, finally closing at $80,500 — the lowest close in the past 30 days. Note this detail: 【Close hits new low, but the moving average held】, bulls and bears are clashing near the moving average. ════════════ 🔍【What does the narrowing mean】 The narrowing volatility range usually ends with an explosive move; the direction is uncertain, but the magnitude will not be small. Key resistance above: $86,000, only a volume-supported break and hold will mean bulls regain control. 📌 Critical support below: 365-day moving average; once effectively broken, technical traders will collectively turn bearish. The bear representative Peter Schiff has already spoken out, targeting the next support at $75,000 and mocking ETF holders for having no weekend support.While $SOL is falling, the open interest is climbing, and the funding rate has turned negative—a classic short squeeze is brewing. Weekend market liquidity is insufficient, yet shorts are flooding in heavily. We've seen this scenario before. Low liquidity combined with crowded positions means that once a short squeeze hits, the market will swing violently. When everyone is betting in the same direction, don't go against the trend. Stay patient, watch for a wave of short covering, and strictly enforce stop losses. The situation could get chaotic quickly. $SOL $ETH $BTC Everyone who went all-in following Duan Yongping has suffered heavy losses
Pop Mart peaked at 450 billion, but in the past year it has plummeted over 60%, with more than 270 billion HKD evaporated.
In May, Duan Yongping announced he had spent 11 billion HKD to bottom-fish, becoming the second largest shareholder. However, after his purchase, Pop Mart dropped another 36 billion. Calculated, this investment currently has an unrealized loss exceeding 2 billion HKD...
At that time, many of Duan Yongping's fans were very excited and heavily invested, now facing unrealized losses of about 15% to 20%. If leveraged, this 20% drop is enough to trigger a margin call...
Following Duan Yongping to trade stocks is not a good idea. I still remember the Tencent case:
700 dropped to 600
Duan: Tencent is good, bottom-fishing buy
Dropped to 550
Duan: I understand Tencent a bit, but not fully, bottom-fishing buy
400
Duan: Buy
250
Duan: Actually, I don’t understand Tencent very well, I only bought 1%
350
Duan: Buy some Tencent PUTs
The harshest truth in the capital market is: you and the big players are simply not at the same table.
Duan Yongping has the backing of perpetual cash flow from his industrial businesses, with OPPO and vivo paying tens of billions in dividends annually as support. This 2 billion unrealized loss might just be one year’s dividends for him; he still plays golf every day and waiting ten years or so is no big deal.
Retail investors blindly follow to buy stocks, using money meant for buying a house, marriage, or living expenses, charging in after seeing news about the big players, and suffer a 30% loss that directly damages their financial health...
In short, with different capital scales, copying others’ trades is just waiting to dieThis can be considered somewhat good news. I just saw that the SEC has included tokenization in its 2027 regulatory priorities, which should be a signal that regulation is shifting from enforcement to rulemaking. However, I still remind everyone not to misinterpret this kind of news as an imminent positive development. Even if the valuation of compliant issuers will be reflected in advance, the secondary market money will have to wait until the rules are implemented. Any benefits effective only in 2027 are worth just 30% today. Moreover, in my view, the biggest beneficiaries of this framework will not be DeFi, but rather banks and asset managers who fear uncertainty the most.Are new BTC buyers really back? This on-chain chart is worth a close look.
Glassnode tracks the proportion of BTC moved in the last 3 months relative to the realized market cap of the entire network. It measures the cost-weighted active coins recently, not the number of new entrants.
At the end of past bull markets, this ratio reached about 85% in 2018 and over 70% in 2021. But at the October 2025 peak, it was only 37%, then continued to decline, approaching historical bear bottom levels by July 2026.
The turning point is: the ratio has now risen back to about 21%, with coins aged 1–3 months contributing the most. This means some coins active in August were not quickly transferred again, indicating market absorption and holding.
But there is a caveat: "younger" coins do not equal a surge of new funds. Turnover of existing coins and wallet migrations also affect the statistics, so one chart alone cannot declare a bull market restart.
In October, BTC found support around $80,000, but supply pressure remains between $85,000 and $87,500. Going forward, we need to watch the proportion of young coins, ETF fund flows, and whether spot trading continues to improve.
New buyers have indeed started joining the group, but just because some speak up doesn’t mean everyone is ready to hold long term.
Do you think this wave is a recovery or just a rebound?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 High interest rates won't retreat, don't mistake a pause for a reversal (｡•́︿•̀｡)
The market treats "no rate hike in October, rate cut by year-end" as the script, but PMI disrupts it: manufacturing hits the strongest in 53 months, and corporate selling prices rise at the fastest pace in over a year. The economy is so hot, inflation won't cool down, so why would the Fed rush to ease? The real variable isn't whether to hike or not, but that high interest rates will last longer (¬‿¬).
BTC: Sentiment supports sideways trading, ETFs act like pulse capital inflows and outflows, no long-term base seen. Everyone hopes for liquidity, but if funding costs don't drop, who wants to buy at high levels? Long-term bullish is correct, but short-term beware of pullbacks; pause ≠ reversal, be cautious chasing highs, and firmly set stop losses on short positions (ง •̀_•́)ง.
ETH: Still a fragile follower. ETF bleeding hasn't stopped, the ecosystem lacks new breakout points. High interest rate drain hits it first, and when the market softens, it falls harder. Don't mistake sideways for stabilization; if BTC tests the bottom, ETH's decline will amplify, don't catch falling knives (￣▽￣)~*.
XAUT: Gold logic is the opposite. Short-term rebounds during high interest periods are mostly fake moves, but geopolitical conflicts + central bank buying are the trump cards. When the market truly prices in a "hard landing," safe-haven funds will take over, and gold will run an independent trend. Don't trap long-term logic with short-term sentiment (¬‿¬).
$ETH $ETH $XAU
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 The water is calm and the river flows, but there is a line trembling beneath the surface
For the past one and a half hours, neither BTC nor ETH has exploded. BTC seems to be pressed repeatedly between 80,300 and 80,400, with almost zero net movement in an hour and a half; the calmness is so dull it makes people sleepy. ETH moved slightly, sliding from around 2,340 down to 2,336, a drop of just a few tenths of a percent, not even reaching the threshold of a "plunge."$ETH
Small moves, but the atmosphere is intense. Derivatives trading volume shrank by 11.66% in 24 hours, and short-term bettors are clearly retreating. What really keeps people on edge is the line beneath the surface: a certain whale’s ETH long position liquidation price is only about one hundred dollars away from today’s low, and they just added $9.21 million in margin to stay alive at midnight. The price hasn’t collapsed, but it hasn’t left the danger zone either, like a person standing on the edge of a cliff scrolling on their phone—feet haven’t slipped, but the heartbeat hasn’t stopped.$BTC
If the price chooses to "not move" to survive the liquidation line, is that a successful defense, or just postponing the explosion by a few hours? No one knows the answer. The key is on October 27–28; the market is waiting for a bigger variable to unfold. Big money chooses to lie low, short-term funds choose to watch, and naturally the market is sucked into a vacuum.
In short: it’s not that no one wants an explosion, but the fuse has been pulled out by margin calls, the explosives dampened by macro factors, and even the igniters are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s starting gun. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ This week's ETF fund flows look quite divided 👀
BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of $301.2 million over the week, but the rhythm was quite twisted: over $1 billion came in during the first three days, then $773.5 million flowed out consecutively on Thursday and Friday. The whole week's support basically relied on IBIT alone, which saw an inflow of $565.7 million over five days, while FBTC and ARKB actually experienced outflows.
ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of $220.7 million for the week, marking the fourth consecutive week of net outflows, with a cumulative outflow exceeding $1.1 billion in October.
My understanding: institutions haven't fled but are being selective, concentrating funds into top BTC products while ETH is being neglected. The prices reflect this as well, with BTC hovering around 80,000 and ETH dropping to about 2,350.
The biggest variable next week is the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27-28, with oil prices still above $117. If the meeting leans hawkish, outflows like those on Thursday and Friday may repeat; if the tone is more dovish, BTC is more likely to rebound first, and ETH will need capital inflows to outperform.
Personally, I am lightly positioned before the meeting and not betting on direction. Do you think ETH will continue to be drained?
Sources: Farside Investors, NewsBTC, Investing.com
Personal views only, not investment advice, DYOR
$BTC $ETH
#ETF fund flows #Federal Reserve meeting #BTC #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ BTC is currently reported at about 80,650, after dipping to 79,146 over the weekend and then recovering above 80,000. ETF had a net inflow of 5.05 million yesterday, with IBIT alone taking 16.78 million, but on a weekly basis, IBIT took 566 million while others withdrew 265 million, indicating a fragile structure. The probability of FOMC maintaining interest rates is 90.6%, with no position taken before the meeting, waiting for a clear signal with volume.$SNDK 10/29 This earnings report, I tend to think it will exceed expectations, and I am optimistic it can rally after the release.
The company's adjusted EPS guidance is $44–46, with the market expecting $45.22, basically right in the middle. Last quarter's EPS was $39.25, and this guidance has already moved up quite a bit. The logic of NAND price increases and locked-in long-term contracts still holds, so I think the performance has a chance to be even better.
However, the stock price has been falling, dropping from $1,887 back to $1,238, a pullback of over 30%. Compared to the last earnings report, profit expectations are higher, but the stock price has been moving downward recently, which is also why I am leaning bullish this time.
Of course, a big drop doesn't necessarily mean it will rise. But my judgment is that if this earnings report beats expectations and next quarter's guidance doesn't disappoint, the previously suppressed sentiment might ease, leading to a rebound.
I will focus on next quarter's revenue guidance: if it can reach above $12 billion and maintain gross margin, that would be more reassuring; if it falls below $11 billion or gross margin drops significantly, then this judgment would need to be revised.
So my prediction this time is: earnings will be favorable, expect a rebound after the release, first seeing if it can recover $1,300. As for whether it can continue up to $1,450–1,550, that depends on the guidance and capital reaction.ETH smart money trader position core data analysis, both longs and shorts under pressure, who is really making money!!!
ETH current price 2346.37, down 1.13%, current funding rate 0.0079%.
Smart money total positions 1.62B USDT, total traders 2175, nominal long-short ratio 23.96%.
Longs (793 traders)
Current position 313.47M USDT, average entry price 2863.83, unrealized floating loss 69.132M USDT, profit ratio only 25.97%, vast majority of longs are trapped, entry cost far above current price, huge pressure.
Shorts (1382 traders)
Current position 1.30B USDT, average entry price 2311.51, unrealized floating loss 19.4258M USDT, profit ratio 65.26%. Number of short traders and position size significantly larger, although most traders are still profitable, overall accounts also show floating losses.
Current price is squeezed between long and short costs, longs deeply trapped, shorts slightly floating loss, also a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Long profit ratio less than 30%, clearly the weaker side.
For market observation reference only, does not constitute any investment advice #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $BTC $ETH $IRYS Robinhood Chain is starting to look like more than a place to trade tokenized stocks.
DEX volume fell 30% to $6.35B, yet DeFi TVL climbed to $1.058B.
And the bigger signal? Morpho had $486.8M in open loans.
Trading cooled off, but lending kept growing.
That week alone, borrowers paid ~$417K in interest + liquidation bonuses, while Morpho itself recorded $0 in protocol revenue.
The market may be shifting from speculation to financial infrastructure.
$HOOD $xHOOD
#HOODQ3TradingGrowth People buying gold to hedge against inflation might feel especially frustrated these days: energy prices are rising, yet gold prices once fell below $4000.
On Friday, spot gold touched around $3975 intraday. This trend reminds me that gold's reaction to inflation is far from the straightforward "prices go up, gold goes up" logic.
If rising energy prices make the market worry that interest rates will stay high longer, non-interest-bearing gold faces opportunity cost pressure. Coupled with the dollar, real interest rates, and position adjustments, short-term performance can completely differ from the most intuitive safe-haven logic.
I do not completely dismiss gold's long-term allocation role because of this drop, but I will reassess the expectations when buying. Using it to diversify long-term risk and expecting it to rise immediately every time the situation tightens are two different needs.
The $4000 round number is very eye-catching, but after breaking below it, we still need to see whether funds continue to sell and how interest rate expectations change. Relying on a single round number makes it hard to judge whether the adjustment has ended or just begun.
What’s most uncomfortable is that the risks we worry about are still there, yet the asset bought for hedging makes the account suffer first.
At times like this, I prefer to clarify the holding period. Long-term allocation requires the ability to withstand short-term drawdowns, while short-term trading needs separate exit conditions and cannot change plans to long-term only after a drop.
#现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 Four major events line up next week: the Federal Reserve decision, the ECB, US GDP and PCE, and Friday's options expiration. Who will trigger first is unknown, but before the explosion, there will definitely be a shakeout in the market.
$BTC is "grinding and waiting": hovering around 80800, price unchanged, positions holding against the trend, with 175 million liquidated; price not falling and positions not reducing means it's not stability, someone is still filling. No volume surge means no chase, just riding sideways to profit from volatility and losing on fees.
$ETH is "following the weakness": grinding at 2360, falling deeper, positions flowing out, 157 million liquidated; ETFs are withdrawing nearly 1 billion in October, staking at 2.6% can't compete with 5% treasury yields, so funds have no reason to return actively. Positions keep flowing out with no uptake.
$SOL is "forgotten": fluctuating at 102, positions shrinking, long liquidations, but accounts still hold over 76% longs, many talk long but sell with hands, this divergence is even more frustrating; no volume surge to show presence means no added drama.
All fees are positive: BTC 0.0071%, ETH 0.0053%, SOL 0.0062%, longs pay to hold positions; total daily liquidations across the network hit 542 million, up 14.52%, a typical sideways market deleveraging—price isn't killed, positions are.
Conclusion: No directional bets before the decision, just watch three lines—whether BTC positions keep rising, ETH positions keep shrinking, and whether SOL continues to be forgotten. Whichever changes first will move, if none change, just watch. Staying still is harder than moving; survival depends on steady hands.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ The upward momentum of $IRYS is fading, yet the market is still waiting for it to "make another run" using the previous script. The original text gives a very straightforward judgment: this coin has completed its rally phase, and what follows is more likely a slow decline with occasional weak rebounds, until it is completely ignored and then a moderate recovery rally appears—an old script, replayed repeatedly. The real warning is not the drop itself, but the signal of "no one discussing it": this often marks the start of the next rebound, not the end. 😮💨 Looking at $ORDER, the original text's stance is very clear: don't touch it. The control is extremely tight, it could surge suddenly or collapse instantly, with direction not determined by fundamentals. If you must participate, only do so in small batches and be prepared to lose everything. This is not bearishness, but an acknowledgment that the price discovery mechanism for such assets has failed—in this structure, any "technical level" is an illusion. $BTC is the anchor of this narrative. The original text gives two key price levels: 80,000 and 76,000. The logic is: if 80,000 breaks first, it will lure out a batch of short-sellers, which may then trigger a strong rally; as long as 76,000 holds, the bulls still have hope, and the long-term bullish stance remains unchanged. There is an easily underestimated expectation gap here—the market treats 80,000 as resistance, but the original text treats it as a "bait level to shake out shorts." In other words, a break does not mean a bear market, but could be reverse fuel. The confirmation signal is very clear: if after losing 80,000 there is a volume spike down but a quick recovery, it is a bear trap.$APR This project itself has Jump and Coinbase backgrounds, and it did do real cash buybacks in the early stage, so the story is somewhat complete. But the fatal flaw lies in the token structure, with a circulation rate of just over 20%, and a cliff-like large unlocking is about to happen, nearly half the current circulating supply. Watch the 15-minute chart closely; after a pump, the MACD immediately forms a death cross and crashes down. This is clearly making room for low-cost chips to sell. Jumping in now is just being an ATM for others.
$RLS RLS is involved in blockchain game distribution, with only about 15% circulation, the market cap is extremely light, and any random order can distort the candlestick chart beyond recognition. The buyback and burn narrative sounds impressive, but there's no verification of where the funds come from. Its 24-hour turnover rate is extremely high, all short-term hot money quickly in and out. On the 15-minute chart, it spikes with a long upper shadow, showing obvious lack of momentum, a typical pump-and-dump; once the hype fades, the true nature is exposed.
$USELESS USELESS is on my blacklist, not even worth analyzing. Pure stagnant water variant and Meme collector, relying on the name to disgust people, pumping once to scam once. This kind of trash coin has no game theory logic at all, just block it and don't look at it; touching it is just giving away money.
In summary, with the current high-interest environment tightly suppressed, there is basically no incremental fresh capital entering the market. Altcoins are just robbing each other, chaotic and reckless. Control your hands, hold firmly the big coins like BTC and ETH with solid fundamentals for the long term, and don't touch these meat grinders.