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Saw a message where someone dumped about $22.28 million worth of coins.
A pretty well-known figure in the circle has almost completely cleared their directional positions. About 6,400 ETH accounted for roughly $15.2 million, about 14 million ENA around $2.76 million. On the UNI side, about 323,000 tokens, nearly $2.24 million. ETHFI, AERO, and PENDLE also saw some sell-offs, with the whole basket totaling about $22.28 million. He himself said that the macro and geopolitical outlook looks a bit shaky, so it needs to drop first before it can rise again, and he's sitting on the sidelines waiting for a signal. Nine days ago, he was still bullish on BTC and ETH, but now he's settling for safety with altcoins first.
Bullish or bearish calls can change daily, but real money leaving the market is what counts. That's the daily life in crypto.#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
$IRYS Why has it surged so much these past two days?
1. Direct ignition: Short squeeze
On October 23–24, IRYS's 24-hour increase once ranged from +260% to +580% (varies by platform sampling), soaring from about $0.02 to the $0.09–0.15 range.
During this period, over $21 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated, and perpetual contract open interest surged several times within hours.
Logic: Many were initially selling → price suddenly spikes → shorts stop loss/get liquidated → passive buying pushes price even higher. This is not pure fundamental buying by buyers; it's a leverage structure collapse.
2. Underlying structure: Low circulating market cap, price flies with any buying push
Total supply is 100 billion tokens, but only about 20% is circulating, so valuation is based on a "thin market."
Market cap is only tens to hundreds of millions of dollars; a few million dollars in net buying can push the price up by dozens of points.
Thin order book and large slippage make it suitable for momentum funds to break out, not for valuation based on large-cap coin logic.
3. Fundamental endorsement: Cascade upgrade + "AI data chain" narrative
Irys mainnet launched the Cascade storage upgrade: supports 30-day / 1-year storage terms, cost reduction, permanent storage, combined with IrysVM allowing data to be directly read by contracts. I saw ETH plunge 2% sharply within an hour this morning and thought the leverage in the contracts had finally been flushed out.
At 6 o'clock, OKEx ETH perpetual contracts saw a reduction of about 12,000 positions in that hour, one of the few noticeable drops in the past four days.
But just four hours later, all those positions were fully restored. By noon, the open interest was just over 600,000 contracts, even more than before the drop, while the price did not recover.
The number of participants didn’t surge accordingly; at noon it was 2.5 million, quite a bit less than yesterday. The new positions added weren’t just small accounts squeezing the longs; both sides were adding.
So this move just replaced a batch of traders, with no reduction in leverage in the market. If by this time tomorrow OKEx ETH open interest falls below 590,000 contracts, then I’ll admit I was wrong.
Just to reconcile, I said yesterday that if the number of participants at noon today stayed above 2.8 million, I’d be proven wrong. It actually was 2.5 million, so that statement still stands.After the U.S. stock market closed, the trends of gold, natural gas, and copper showed a clear strength and weakness hierarchy: gold was pressured and lost a key level, natural gas fell to a multi-month low due to weather expectations, while copper tentatively stabilized after being oversold but still recorded a weekly decline.
Gold: Fell below $4000, inflation expectations outweigh safe-haven logic
Spot gold closed again below the $4000/ounce mark at $3997.79; COMEX gold futures closed down 1.24% at $4010, with a weekly cumulative drop of 4.22%, marking the worst weekly performance in over four months.
The core pressure comes from inflation and rate hike expectations triggered by soaring energy prices. High oil prices reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain tightening, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Although U.S. Treasury yields briefly declined on Friday due to safe-haven buying, gold did not benefit; instead, it faced technical selling, accelerating selling pressure after breaking below $4060 intraday. The safe-haven demand from geopolitical conflicts was completely overwhelmed by the "oil price → inflation → rate hike" chain in this battle. The market still prices a 74.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, which is a short-term constraint for gold.
Natural Gas $NG: Warm weather dominates, falls to two-month low
U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% on Friday, with the near-month November contract down $0.07 to $2.726 per million British thermal units, the lowest close since August 17, and a weekly cumulative drop of about 13%.
The suppressing factor is clear and direct: weather forecasts show that most of the U.S. will have above-normal temperatures through November 7, suppressing heating demand. This marks the seventh consecutive trading day of price decline and the third consecutive day in the technical oversold zone, the first since July. The 2027 calendar contract fell to a nearly five-year low of $3.09, and the 12-month contract dropped to a two-year low of $2.90, reflecting the market's lack of concern about long-term supply and demand. On the supply side, production in the 48 U.S. states has recovered from previous lows to about 113.3 billion cubic feet per day; inventory surplus is narrowing (estimated 0.7% above normal as of the week ending October 23, down from 1.0% the previous week) but not enough to reverse the price decline. LNG exports average 18.2 billion cubic feet per day, higher than September but still below the April record, unable to provide effective hedging.
Copper $XCU: Tentative stabilization after overselling, but weekly decline remains
Copper prices rebounded slightly from a five-week low on Friday, with London copper intraday gains up to 1.3%. The weekly decline narrowed to about 1.5%, potentially avoiding a third weekly drop in four weeks.
The direct catalyst for stabilization is the easing of tech stock sell-off, temporarily cooling market concerns about copper demand for data centers and power infrastructure; AI-related assets, which had been under continuous pressure, have also caught a breather. However, the support is tentative rather than trend-setting. On the macro level, uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy still looms—large amounts of copper have flowed into the U.S. due to tariff expectations, and traders remain doubtful whether the policy will be fully implemented. On the supply side, Chile's finance minister stated that the country's copper output is expected to decline 8% to 9% this year, with multiple mine accidents and extreme weather worsening production prospects. Copper prices have risen about 14% this year, but the strong unilateral rally has temporarily ended, entering a phase of macro pressure and low inventory reality.
The trends of these three commodities point to the same macro theme: Middle East supply risks push up oil prices $BZ, reigniting inflation and rate hike concerns, a pressure that continued to dominate pricing after the U.S. stock market closed. Gold is suppressed by real interest rate expectations, natural gas is dragged down by its own weather fundamentals, and copper seeks temporary balance amid macro uncertainty and supply contraction. Next week's Federal Reserve meeting (October 27-28) and September PCE data (October 29) will be key tests of whether this logic can continue. 🔥 All eyes are on next week's Fed meeting, but the real risk for Bitcoin may come after it. 👀 📊 Reuters' economist poll expects the Fed to hold rates on Oct. 27-28. Yet all 100 respondents see a hike in December. 🚨 💹 A pause isn't easing. $BTC 's reaction could hinge more on Powell's guidance than on the rate decision itself. #WillFedPauseInOctober The $27.6M ETF outflow on Oct. 23 matters mainly because it was far smaller than the prior day's $636M withdrawal. That softens the signal of a broad exit, especially after $1.075B entered over Oct. 19-21.
BTC holding near $80K suggests flows have yet to impose a durable direction. A return to inflows would be constructive, but one quieter outflow is not confirmation.
#BTCETFFlowSwings #Spot gold breaks below the $4000 mark Buying gold in chaotic times? This time the script has changed. The Middle East is still on edge, which should be a time for safe-haven assets to thrive, but gold actually crashed first, directly breaking below the $4000 threshold. On October 23, spot gold fell below $4000/ounce for the first time since mid-July, dropping nearly 4% over the week. Logically, with wars outside and oil prices soaring, gold should have flown up as well, right? Instead, it has been steadily declining. Related tokenized gold assets also slightly retreated on the market. My personal view is that this is not surprising at all; the core logic can be summed up in four words: interest rate suppression. Everyone must understand that although gold is a safe haven, it has a fatal flaw—it does not yield interest. Now with turmoil in the Middle East, oil prices are skyrocketing and inflation expectations are rising again. Inflation won’t come down, so the Federal Reserve absolutely won’t dare to cut rates, and high interest rates will have to be maintained longer. Since buying U.S. Treasury bonds yields steady high interest, why would big money buy non-yielding gold? Moreover, when the market fluctuates violently, many institutions have to sell their gold holdings to raise cash to meet margin calls—this is a typical liquidity squeeze. What’s the impact? In the short term, this is an extremely important warning signal. Even gold, the oldest risk hedge, is being sold off for cash, indicating that global market liquidity is tightening severely. The crypto market, as a high-risk asset, will also face pressure from capital outflows. If Bitcoin wants to try to borrow$BTC Binance retail long positions ratio surged from 50% to 66%.
Retail investors are all rushing in to bottom-fish, while major holders are taking the opportunity to reduce their positions, even Coinbase spot is showing a negative premium.
Big holders have no intention of supporting the price.
Once retail traders have fully leveraged their longs, the market could suddenly crash and trigger liquidations at any time.
Rushing in at this point is like handing your chips over to the barrel of a gun.
#BTC
$BTC
👇$ETH 越跌，车上多头反而越挤。
多空人数比直接飙到 3 以上，持仓还在往上堆，全是散户在头铁硬接。
大户那边多空比才 0.84，人家根本不买账。
底下流动性全成了活靶子，这盘面不往下一脚踩到底爆一波，多头根本不会死心。
#ETH
$ETH
👇$GOOGL Earnings Preview: I am more optimistic about performance exceeding expectations, AI commercialization is the key!
My judgment is that Google's Q3 earnings have a certain chance to exceed expectations, focusing on whether Google Cloud's growth can continue to accelerate and whether AI investments can be converted into actual profits. The market expects Q3 revenue to be about $111.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 28%, with earnings per share expected to be about $2.94.
From a business perspective, Google's advantage is not just search advertising. Last quarter, Google Cloud revenue reached $24.8 billion, up 82% year-on-year. Enterprises' demand for AI computing power, cloud services, and models is becoming a new growth engine. At the same time, the integration of Gemini with the search business has led the market to reassess AI's impact on Google's traditional advertising business: AI may not necessarily replace search but could enhance user experience and commercial monetization capabilities.
Google's 2026 capital expenditure guidance has been raised to $195 billion to $205 billion, with huge investments in AI infrastructure and pressure on free cash flow. If cloud business growth falls short of expectations or management continues to raise capital expenditure, the market may reassess its profitability.
Google Cloud's growth rate, operating profit margin, and 2027 capital expenditure guidance are the key factors determining whether the stock price can continue to rise after the earnings report.
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ The market has evolved, retail investors have evolved, and market makers have also evolved.
$IRYS saw a single-day liquidation of $60 million, which is almost certainly the record for the largest single-day liquidation amount among altcoin tokens currently.
Previously, people thought a $20 million liquidation was a temporary peak, and shorting was a guaranteed profit. Now the facts prove that using past experience to predict the market maker's next move has completely failed.
After retail investors' pockets have been completely emptied, the market has long since shifted from a "retail investors vs. market makers" game to a highly probable "whales vs. market makers" showdown.$CP As long as you short at higher points after I post, you will make money. The narrative of this coin is very good, including AI revenue, but I have checked the official website. After such a long time, there is still no income, and it is still an Indian market. Brothers, I don't need to say more. You can just short this coin at higher points! Don't go long and get stuck, or it will be very painfulThree days ago I wrote: WLD fell back to 0.506, the leveraged gains didn't hold for a day.
Today is Saturday, and this prediction came true, two days later than my deadline. A late break is still a break.
First, let's show that wave of gains.
10/20 closed up 11.2%, holding nearly 30% long positions, fees at max for four periods.
10/21 touched 0.5987 intraday, the peak of this wave.
Then came the payback.
10/22 dropped 7% first, 10/23 was flat for a day, then at 6 AM this morning, that hourly candle,
over 20 million worth dumped, down six points in an hour, low at 0.4706.
In the same window, Bitcoin hit a nine-day low, WLD just amplified it, not immune.
This scenario played out on 10/12: max fees for six periods, dropped nearly 10%.
I acknowledge this invalidation line.
Friday closed at 0.532, maybe it would have muddled through. A late break looks worse than an on-time break—
prices pushed up by leverage, when paying back, principal plus interest.
Two details I noted.
In these two down days, fees twice lit up back to max—bulls paying rent going downstairs.
Volume shrank from 270 million to less than 100 million, no new money coming in.
I won’t catch it at 0.475.
Frankly, catching it means catching those paying at the highest rate.
Standing back at 0.506 and exiting max fees = admitting a mistake; breaking 0.4706 looks at 0.4561; Monday close.
Which do you choose: reclaim 0.506, or 0.4561?
$WLD $BTC $ETH
#WLDReview
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heardETF single-day outflows exceeding $600 million are certainly ugly. But focusing only on this number can easily skew the view of the week's fund movements.
According to Farside data, from October 19 to 21, the total net inflow of US BTC spot ETFs was about $1.075 billion; on the 22nd, there was an outflow of about $636 million. The latter withdrew a large portion of the earlier buying, but did not erase all the inflows from the first three days.
This at least indicates that the current situation looks more like funds adjusting back and forth, and it’s not yet justified to conclude that all institutions are exiting based on just one day. As of the query time, some major products had not yet reported on the 23rd, so don’t rush to calculate the full week’s results.
What makes me uneasy about this round of market activity is how quickly buying and selling switch. One day it looks like funds are recovering, and the next day there’s a large redemption, which easily makes people raise their expectations and then immediately doubt themselves.
What’s more worth observing now is whether subsequent redemptions will continue and whether prices will keep weakening accordingly. Continuous outflows and a single concentrated adjustment require different judgments.
Of course, buying in the first three days is not a reason to feel confident holding now. Funds can change at any time; no one promises they will stay once they come in.
I don’t want to rush to call the bottom for the market yet. Let’s wait for the data to be complete and then observe the cumulative changes over a few days. One day’s data is enough to stir emotions but usually not enough to clearly explain the trend.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ 恐惧贪婪指数从68跌到50，一天之内回落18点。但BTC只跌了0.29%。情绪为什么反应这么剧烈？ 先说新闻。情绪侧：恐惧贪婪指数从68跌到50（前值68），回到多空分界线。价格侧：BTC报81,441.4美元，24小时-0.29%、近一周+0.11%。资金侧：ETF连续第六天净流入（+2,950万），5日+2.061亿、10日+3,520万。宏观侧：黄金-2.91%、标普500-0.64%、美元101.60。 再看资金影响。情绪指数对"波动率"和"市场热度"非常敏感——黄金单日暴跌2.91%这种级别的波动，会瞬间拉高恐慌分项，即使BTC本身没那么弱。所以今天情绪回落的主因是黄金，而不是BTC。这就是为什么"情绪跌18点、BTC只跌0.29%"——情绪被外部事件带崩了。 对BTC的含义：这种"情绪超调"往往是机会而不是风险。当情绪快速回落但资金持续流入、价格保持稳定时，说明抛压主要来自情绪而非真实卖盘。历史上这种组合之后，价格往往会修复。但这需要资金流入的持续性来验证。 我接下来盯四个指标：一是恐惧贪婪指数能否在50附近企稳；二是ETF流入能否延续；三是BTC能否守住79,775；四是First, look at the long-short ratio of large accounts: during this cycle, the number of short accounts has long exceeded the number of long accounts, with only the morning of October 22 reaching a high of 0.79, which was the strongest proportion of long accounts during this period. It then quickly fell back, hitting a low of 0.48 on the 23rd, followed by a slight rebound to the current 0.54. This means that currently, the number of large accounts opening short positions is still greater than those opening long positions, with the short large account group dominating.
Next, look at the long-short ratio of large account positions, where the contrast appears. Before 4 PM on the 22nd, the long-short position ratio was consistently low, with short positions slightly dominant. Starting from the afternoon of the 22nd, it surged sharply, rising continuously to a peak of 12.5 in the early hours of the 24th, then falling back to 6.0.
This indicates: although there are more large accounts shorting, a few large long accounts have entered with heavy positions, and the volume of long positions has significantly surpassed the shorts.
To summarize my view:
The market currently shows a typical divergence structure. Many large and retail accounts choose to place shorts, but some leading large accounts are holding long positions in ambush. This "more short accounts, heavy long positions" structure easily triggers volatile shakeouts.
On one hand, clustered shorts are prone to being swept out by the main force; on the other hand, concentrated heavy longs can quickly face selling pressure if the market weakens.
Do not simply follow the number of accounts or a single data point to trade. The probability of volatility is currently high, and chasing trades carries high risk. Be patient and wait for the direction to become clear before taking action. $BTC #Middle East crude oil supply risks rise again, oil prices continue to strengthen
The Strait of Hormuz, as a global energy chokepoint, is seeing renewed geopolitical tensions, with the market worried about disruptions to crude oil shipments. Oil prices continue to strengthen, and the market logic has shifted from supply and demand to geopolitical risk premiums.
Although OPEC+ maintains spare capacity and the US has the option to release strategic reserves, short-term conflicts are sudden. Once shipping is disrupted, oil prices can quickly surge. The biggest chain reaction to rising oil prices is the renewed increase in inflation expectations, which directly restrains Federal Reserve policy and suppresses risk assets like crypto.
My view: Geopolitical markets are the hardest to predict, with frequent conflicting news. After a surge, prices can quickly fall due to easing signals. Do not blindly chase oil-related logic. For $BTC and $ETH, high oil prices = rising inflation concerns, which is a macro condition that is somewhat bearish.
Trading approach: Prioritize reducing positions and observing. As the situation escalates, be wary of risk assets weakening under pressure; only when peace talks and easing signals emerge, causing the oil price premium to quickly dissipate, is there an opportunity to play a rebound. Geopolitical news fluctuates very rapidly, so strict stop-losses must be maintained.$ETH has been consolidating sideways between 2390-2415 for the past couple of days. This morning at 6 AM, it finally chose a direction—downward.
That 1-hour bearish candle had trading volume four to five times the usual, crashing straight down to 2350.1, breaking through the two-day support at 2392. It bounced back to 2387 at 7 AM but couldn't go higher. Since then, each hourly high has been lower: 2389 at 11 AM, 2385 at 12 PM, 2381 at 1 PM, and now around 2376, with volume shrinking significantly.
Funding rate is still slightly positive (0.0098%), and open interest remains around $1.4 billion without much decline—bulls haven't fled.
My plan is to wait for a retracement to short, not to chase here:
Entry at 2390-2396, with the previous support now acting as resistance.
Stop loss at 2412, the high zone from last night to early this morning; if price climbs back above, it means the morning dip was a false breakdown, and I'll accept that.
Target 1 is 2352, today's low; Target 2 is 2333, the low from the spike on the 19th. Close half the position at Target 1 and move the stop loss to breakeven for the remainder.
If it breaks below 2350 with volume and no retracement, I won't chase. If Bitcoin leads a pullback above 82000, this plan is void.
For ETH here, are you waiting to bottom-fish or following the short? 🤔
Just my personal view, not investment advice, DYOR
#ETH #ContractStrategy #Ethereum"Countertrend Gainers, Don't Rush to Chase"
$IRYS has surged strongly against the trend this round. On the surface, it looks like an independent narrative, but breaking it down, it resembles a rebound after leveraged liquidation: current price is about $0.08672, spot and futures trading volumes are shrinking together, with open interest around $4.12 million; previously, there was a nearly 580% single-day surge, mainly due to about $21.4 million short positions being forcefully liquidated, and open futures contracts once surged to $122 million. The Layer 1 data chain story is true, but about 77.59 million tokens will unlock on October 25, with only 20% circulating supply, concentrated chips, and thin order book. After the squeeze and retreat, whether spot buying supports the price is the real test (｡•́︿•̀｡)
$BTC broke below 81,000, macro risk appetite is contracting, and there are still spot sell orders to digest around 83,000; when it rebounds, don't just look at green or red candles, volume and support after a breakout are more critical. $BNB had its 37th burn of 1.646 million tokens, about $120 million, reducing supply, but it hovers between 730–745 and fails to break 750 for a long time, indicating selling pressure hasn't disappeared; burning does not equal buying (￣▽￣)
My view: The probability of a short-term "first drop" after IRYS unlock is not low, especially under the combination of thin liquidity and concentrated chips, where a shakeout is more common; but if spot buying supports steadily after unlocking and futures open interest doesn't collapse, it could shift from a short squeeze to consensus. Countertrend gainers on the leaderboard are often the most crowded (ง •_•)ง
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ One week after the halving, $FIL dropped from 1.27 to 0.99, and community sentiment quickly shifted from anticipation to disappointment: where is the promised halving rally? But what really deserves questioning is not the K-line chart, but a structural change behind this round of decline that most people have overlooked — Filecoin's halving has never been a $BTC-style supply shock script. The whole network is hyping the "halving," yet few have unpacked FIP-0118 (Solstice proposal) to see its core. In the past, miners could buy hard drives and upload data to get coins to dump, but this model is being forcibly rewritten by the official side: block rewards are split in two, and the portion of tokens not earned from real paying customers is directly burned. What does this mean? The supply contraction comes not only from the halving schedule but also adds a layer of deflationary mechanism of "no work, no coins." To understand from another angle: the official side is forcibly shifting the ecosystem from "competing on computing power" to "competing on customer acquisition." This is a reset of the incentive structure, not a simple production cut. The miners' income logic is rewritten, and one source of selling pressure is cut off — the future incremental circulation of $FIL depends on how much real storage demand is signed, not how many hard drives are activated. The market is clearly pricing the new rules with the old framework. Buying high at 1.20 and getting trapped, panicking and cutting losses at 0.95, essentially all treat the halving as a $BTC-style bullish event to be realized, but they overlook that this Filecoin halving comes with increased deflation rather than just reduced production. The underestimated point by the crowd is that the marginal impact of the burn mechanism will accumulate over time, not just atThe most classic deflation narrative of ETH is being harshly contradicted by reality!
In the past, when talking about $ETH, many people liked to discuss the burn mechanism.
The more active the transactions, the more burns occur, giving ETH supply a chance to decrease. Coupled with the staking mechanism, it sounds like a story of an increasingly scarce asset.
But the reality is: in the past 30 days, Ethereum has only burned about 2.7% of the newly issued $ETH during the same period.
In other words, the burns have not offset the new issuance at all.
Currently, the annual growth rate of $ETH supply is about 0.86%, while Bitcoin's is about 0.82%. The issuance mechanisms of the two are completely different, so this number cannot simply be equated to which is more valuable, but at least it shows one thing:
Stop treating ETH as an inherently deflationary asset!
Ethereum's burn mechanism has not disappeared, but its actual effect depends on network activity and fee levels. If network usage demand is not strong enough, the burn naturally cannot support the deflation narrative.
What’s even more awkward is that when the market starts discussing continuous ETF fund outflows and upgrade delays, ETH's scarcity story also fails to provide an indisputable positive.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Today's top gainers +5%, top losers -4%, happening simultaneously in the same market on the same day.
It's neither a broad rally nor a broad sell-off; money is selectively moving within high-beta coins.
$ENA 0.209, +5.03%, market cap 2.82 billion, OI up 5.0% in one day to 595 million. Price up and positions increasing means bulls are actively adding leverage, not shorts covering.
$BCH 282.58, +3.24%, market cap 5.68 billion, volume 168 million. An outlier among old coins, outperforming most major ones today.
$NEAR 4.74, -3.2%~-4.1%, market cap 6.21 billion, OI down 4.3% to 1.36 billion. Price down and positions decreasing means forced liquidations, not sell-offs.
Price up and positions increasing means chasing; price down and positions decreasing means washing out. If you don't understand this sentence, then don't touch contracts yet.Brent crude oil touched $117.45 intraday, with a monthly increase of over 10%. Expectations of renewed US-Iran conflict have brought geopolitical premiums back into focus. Risk appetite has contracted, putting pressure on the crypto market, but the three coins reveal three different structures.
$BTC is around 80,900, still holding above 80,000. Notably, while ETFs saw net outflows of 635 million on Thursday and another 138 million on Friday, another layer of activity appeared on-chain: 40 new wallets withdrew about 9,458 BTC from market maker Wintermute, and wallets associated with Fidelity and BlackRock also received a combined total of over 660 BTC from exchanges.
$ETH is around 2,380. A marginal change that is easy to overlook: Ethereum ETFs had a net inflow of $4.4 million yesterday, ending the previous continuous outflow trend, but compared to the cumulative outflow of over $1 billion in October, this is just a drop in the bucket. The direction has turned, but the scale is far from enough.
$SOL is around 102. After the Alpenglow upgrade went live, the price actually fell back from 108. On October 22, ETFs saw another outflow of $8.9 million, totaling $17.6 million outflows during the week. However, rumors of spot ETF approval next week are circulating; expectations are halfway there, but the price has yet to catch up with the funds.
In short: oil prices have brought macro risks back to the forefront. BTC is undergoing turnover, ETH has just begun marginally stemming losses, and SOL is waiting for a possible catalyst that might "sell the news."
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $SNDK
Western Digital's earnings beat expectations across every line, and the guidance was solid, yet it still dropped 6.5% after hours. The reason for the drop is quite awkward: the NAND it bought got more expensive. And the NAND getting more expensive is exactly the revenue for SNDK.
In the same week, SNDK itself first had a big bearish candle of -8.5%, then dropped another 1.8% intraday on Friday. I pulled the OKX token version: current price 1240.6, 24-hour high 1318.5, low 1229.2, with $100 million in perpetual positions still open there.
Earnings report next Thursday, October 29. Institutions expect revenue of $10.65 billion and EPS of 46.21, with an average target price just over 2100, about 70% higher than the current price. I always treat target prices as a sentiment thermometer, not as navigation.
I've been watching this storage stock for a few months, and the two times I thought I understood it, I was clearly wrong. This time I won't guess either; I'll wait for the earnings report to give the answer.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $ETH
Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of $4.4 million yesterday, while Bitcoin saw a net outflow of $137.9 million. Some are already talking about capital rotation. I’m not buying that story today.
4.4 million is a scale that’s one-thirtieth of Bitcoin’s, not even enough to fill a decent sell order on the market. Last time I said Ethereum’s trouble is external, not internal, and after several days of testing, the number is even smaller now, so I won’t change my stance.
The numbers I pulled: OKX current price 2377, 24-hour high 2417, low 2352; Binance’s low is 2350, both align, down 1.2%. Perpetual fee rate 0.0098%, open interest $1.44 billion, slightly thicker than this morning.
This amount of money in the ETF is not the main course. Before the 28th, I maintain my original judgment: it follows external trends, nothing wrong internally. If I have to admit I’m wrong, I’ll wait until 2300 is broken through.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
The recent pump of IRYS is basically a short squeeze; don’t talk to me about AI storage narratives.
On the news front, there’s no substantial positive development. No mainnet upgrade, no major exchange listings, the project team is very quiet.
What really exploded was the contract data: over $24 million in 24 hours, with $21.4 million of that being shorts getting liquidated. The perpetual contract surged 780% in 4 hours, shooting straight to 0.5, while the spot price only followed to 0.32 before being slammed back down to 0.1.
The circulating supply is only 20%, the market cap is shallow and easy for whales to manipulate. Veteran community members say this script is exactly the same as the previous DOOD—after killing the shorts, it cascades down.
From a technical perspective, the 0.10 level is awkward. It’s already been halved twice from 0.32, with all the late buyers trapped at the peak. The 0.15-0.17 range above is a dense trading zone from before, and without volume, it can’t break through. The 0.095-0.10 range below is the last line of defense; if broken, the next support is the 0.03 launch platform.
Directionally, I expect a short-term correction, not a rebound. The reason is simple: the shorts are mostly dead, the fuel is burned out, and there’s still an unlocking window looming in November.Core DAO Roadmap Update: ✅ Twitter posts ✅ Promises ✅ Node withdrawal ❌ SatPay ❌ Buyback ❌ Revenue
A checklist that sums up the reality of Core's 2026 roadmap: the only things that can be reliably done are social platform promotion, continuous narrative output, and gradual withdrawal from official validator nodes; the three major revenue pillars that were highly anticipated are all falling short.
SatPay was originally scheduled to launch in the first half of the year but has been repeatedly delayed with no public testing so far; the revenue buyback planned for Q3 has no substantial execution record due to low on-chain transaction volume and nearly zero gas income, resulting in no cash flow support; large-scale ecosystem revenue is out of the question, and the BTCFi revenue-generating flywheel has not started at all.
The official withdrawal of nodes is packaged as a gradual move towards decentralization, but in reality, it is shedding operational costs and network failure responsibilities. The number of active validators has shrunk to fewer than 20, and the consensus circle continues to narrow. The controversy over the 69 million ghost tokens left by the 8.31 vulnerability and the large transfers from reserve addresses is still ongoing.
A reminder about asset boundaries: staking BTC relies on Bitcoin's CLTV time lock, with private keys self-held, so the principal is unaffected. The roadmap update shows that all the checked items are zero-cost promotional actions, while all the business activities requiring real cash investment are marked with crosses.过去24小时BTC/ETH/SOL集体收阴1-2%，多单爆98.6万U、空单爆9.6万U——押注最一致的人先挨刀。 $BTC：丢8.1万关口，多头还在付费80759.6，24h -1.36%。多空比2.13（4h前2.16），资金费率+0.0030%多头付空头，持仓24.65亿U。风险在哪：付费看多的人太多，爆的却是自己人。 $ETH：空头被收割，价格没跟上2377.9，24h -1.12%。多空比2.55（4h前2.61），资金费率+0.0094%。空单爆66.2万U、多单爆12万U：空头被干掉了，价格却没涨，两头都不舒服。 $SOL：跌得最狠，多空比最极端102.37，24h -2.05%。多空比3.03全场最高（4h前3.05），资金费率+0.0100%。多单爆84.4万U、空单1.6万U。102附近找支撑，3:1一边倒却不给涨，今天最拧巴。 总结：三币一个逻辑——多头占优、多头付费、爆仓的全是多单，盘面在给“看多”降温。付费挨打的盘面，我一般只看不伸手。 仅作盘面记录，不构成投资建议。 #ETF买盘持续回流，BTC为何仍未走强？🔥Don't be fooled by that sharp drop candle of ETH! The real focus should be on the following four hours.
📉This morning, ETH dropped about 2% in one hour, and OKEx perpetual positions simultaneously decreased by about 12,000 contracts, which looks like a round of leverage clearing.
📈But then the positions quickly recovered, exceeding 600,000 contracts by noon, while the price did not fully rebound. This indicates that positions are being rebuilt, and the market hasn't completely relaxed after that drop.
⚠️There are two possibilities next: one is new shorts entering, pushing the price further down; the other is longs buying the dip, waiting for a rebound. Based on position data alone, it's currently unclear who has the upper hand.
🎯My approach is to wait for the price to confirm direction first, not to chase shorts just because positions suddenly increase, nor to bottom-fish just because positions recover after a sharp drop. The more crowded the leverage, the more you need to control your position size.
Do you think ETH will rebound first, or will there be another round of liquidation? #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Bitcoin hasn't fallen below 80,000 yet⬇️
The market is already predicting a big crash on the 29th📉
These days, you can even book the market trend in advance
Are we already looking at next week's Black Thursday?
But there really is a big event on the 29th
At 2 AM Beijing time
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision
Bitcoin has been weak recently
The US stock market is also unstable
Everyone is especially sensitive to bad news
But I'm puzzled
Does an interest rate decision always mean a crash?
The market generally expects rates to remain unchanged now
If the result meets expectations
The real impact on the market
Might actually come from the subsequent statements
For example, whether there will be more rate hikes in the future
How severe the inflation pressure really is
How long the Fed plans to keep rates high
These are what the market truly cares about
And there's another question
If everyone thinks the market will crash on the 29th
Would people foolishly wait until the 29th to sell?
Of course
It's also possible that the news is more hawkish than expected
Causing the market to continue falling
So the 29th is worth watching
But it doesn't mean a crash is set in stone
I want to ask
Those who are predicting a crash in advance
What basis do they really have
Or are they just creating panic?
Do you think the market will really crash on the 29th
Or is it just another false alarm? $BTC 🔥The most interesting thing about this ETH wave: it seems the leverage hasn't been fully cleaned out, but rather piled back up!
📊At 6 AM, OKEx ETH perpetual positions once decreased by about 12,000; four hours later, positions almost fully recovered, exceeding 600,000 by noon.
❗But the price did not rebound accordingly, which is a warning sign: the market added many new positions, yet the price didn't return to its original level, indicating significant disagreement between bulls and bears.
🧠However, an increase in positions doesn't necessarily mean all are shorts, nor does it mean the price must continue to fall. What really needs to be observed is whether positions continue to increase during price drops and whether volume supports the rebound.
🎯If the price remains weak and positions keep rising, don't rush to bottom-fish; if the price recovers key levels, don't easily assume the bears will win.
Brothers, do you value price trends more, or changes in positions? #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $IRYS This market situation is a bit outrageous, it's completely the main force forcing shorts to buy. The long-short ratio of retail investors on OKX dropped to 0.23, all stubbornly holding short positions, but within one day, short positions worth over 57 million USD were liquidated. The chip game is too obvious; the whales are just targeting these retail investors' short position withdrawals. There will be unlocks in the next few days, retail investors think it will fall, but the main force is pulling it up in the opposite direction. As long as the funding rate is negative, the short squeeze won't stop.
#IRYS
$IRYS
👇🔥ETH plunged 2% sharply in the early session, and I thought this wave would finally wash out the contract leverage!
📉 At 6 AM, the hourly K-line of OKEx ETH perpetual saw open interest drop by about 12,000 contracts, which is relatively significant over the past four days. Normally, a price drop combined with reduced open interest might indicate some positions were liquidated.
⚠️ But strangely, within just four hours, the open interest recovered. By noon, open interest climbed back above 600,000 contracts, yet the price failed to regain lost ground.
🧠 What does this mean? At least it shows new positions have entered, but whether it's longs bottom-fishing or shorts adding on rallies can't be determined by open interest alone.
🎯 Next, focus on whether the price can rebound, and how funding rates and aggressive buy/sell orders change as open interest increases. If the price is weak but open interest keeps rising, beware of intensified long-short battles.
Brothers, do you think this is bulls bottom-fishing or bears accumulating positions again? #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Shorts dominate both markets, but neither side is comfortably profitable. BTC has $2.4B in short exposure, with bears facing $126M in unrealized losses. Longs are also underwater, creating pressure on both sides. ETH shows a similar imbalance, with shorts controlling over 80% of capital. My view: BTC has greater short-squeeze potential due to its massive bearish exposure. ETH remains vulnerable to further selling, but a recovery could This meme looks quite strong from the 1-minute chart, with a V-shaped rise, but from the 15-minute chart, there is obvious "potential overextension." The first bullish candle exhausted the strength (this is because too many chips were bought early on, and during the rally, no selling occurred, causing excessive selling pressure as the price rose), resulting in insufficient strength in the subsequent bullish candles. Actually, one should have exited when the bearish candle appeared.I really don't get it. Now that BTC has dropped to around 80,000, why is everyone suddenly shouting bear market? Predictions of 70,000, 60,000, even 50,000 have come out, making it seem like a crash is imminent tomorrow.
But I just saw a set of whale data that made me even more determined to stay bullish.
In July, the one-year holding change of BTC whales was still negative 282,000 coins, but now it has rebounded to negative 39,000 coins. In less than three months, it improved by 243,000 BTC.
This change is quite exaggerated. Although the one-year holding change improved by 243,000 coins, it can't be directly taken as buying 243,000 coins in these three months, but the pressure from whales continuously reducing holdings is indeed easing. At this rate, the indicator might really turn positive later.
Now I want to ask, if the bull market is really over, why is the large holders' holding change still moving in a positive direction?
Of course, whale data can't guarantee BTC will rise immediately. The short-term level of 80,500 still needs to hold; if it breaks, I'll continue to wait for 80,000. As long as around 80,500 can hold steady, I still want to try going long between 80,700–80,900, with a stop loss at 80,300, first targeting 81,500, then 82,000.
My judgment on this bull market hasn't changed; the major trend since mid-August hasn't made me fully turn bearish.
The most interesting thing is, when BTC was rising before, everyone thought it was too expensive, and now that it has dropped, everyone thinks it will get even cheaper.
I actually hope the market gives me another comfortable low entry opportunity; I haven't added enough to my position yet Retail investors have already started shouting that BTC will crash to 70,000, but looking at the data from the whales, the more I look, the more interesting it seems.
In July, the one-year holding change of BTC whales was still negative 282,000 coins, but now it has rebounded to negative 39,000 coins. In less than three months, this indicator has improved by a full 243,000 BTC, and it’s about to turn positive.
Note, this data reflects the rebound in the one-year holding change indicator and cannot be directly counted as a net spot purchase of 243,000 coins in the last three months. But at least it shows that the strong continuous selling momentum from the big holders has clearly weakened.
Now that BTC has dropped to around 81,000, many people see these few bearish candles and think the bull market is over, but I really don’t think so.
Since mid-August, I have leaned towards the bull market still continuing. I admit the short-term drop looks ugly, especially yesterday when it was smashed down from above 84,000, even failing to hold 81,000. But if the whale holding change really turns positive next, I will be more patient waiting for a rebound.
For trading, I’m still watching 80,500, 80,700–80,900 for stabilization to try going long, with a stop loss below 80,300. First target 81,500, then 82,000. If 80,500 doesn’t hold, I’ll wait to re-evaluate around 80,000.
I’m quite curious now, when BTC one day breaks back above 82,000, will those who shout 70,000 every day suddenly start shouting 100,000 again? Anyway, this time I don’t plan to throw away my bull market expectations just because of a few bearish candles. #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复
SK Hynix is expected to continue strong performance growth, but "impressive earnings reports" and "exceeding market expectations" are two different things. The real test this time is not only how much profit can grow, but whether the market's high expectations for AI storage can continue to be fulfilled.
Why might strong earnings still not lead to a stock price increase?
Although Samsung Electronics recently announced preliminary third-quarter results with significant growth, revenue and operating profit still fell short of market expectations. The strong fundamentals of the memory chip industry do not guarantee that every company's stock price will rise due to earnings growth.
When IBK Investment & Securities lowered its earnings forecast for Hynix in the third quarter, it mentioned the Korean won exchange rate factor. At the same time, price changes and shipment structure of traditional DRAM and NAND also determine the actual profit margin.
On October 23, Hynix announced it would stop evaluating a potential IPO of Solidigm and stated that it still needs to consider funding arrangements for capacity expansion. The company said this adjustment is related to the capital market environment and stock price performance, rather than denying its business growth prospects. This also reminds investors that there is still a gap between strong demand and market valuation.
On October 28, key points to watch:
Operating profit exceeding 80 trillion KRW
Customer adoption and subsequent supply of HBM4
Demand guidance for Q4 and 2027 This liquidity depth table is the easiest to deceive.
$ETH has $1.14M in the top five buy orders, with a spread of 0.000%, looking the "safest." But take a look at how much $ETH ETF outflow occurred in October—nearly $1.1 billion in total, with BlackRock's ETHA as the main pressure source. The depth is thick because someone is willing to buy near 2400, not because no one wants to sell. These two situations look identical on the order book but tell completely different stories on the settlement sheet.
$PEPE has a depth of only $156.4K, with a spread of 0.022%, superficially the "thinnest." But what is happening on-chain? On October 16 alone, 4.77 trillion PEPE left exchanges, a net outflow of about $20 million, eight times the average from October 11 to 15. $BTC and $ETH basically moved sideways from October 17 to 22, while $PEPE surged 13% in the same period. Thin depth combined with continuous exchange withdrawals, versus thick depth paired with ETF bloodletting— which is more likely to be pierced by a needle during rapid fluctuations? The order book won't tell you.
$HYPE has a depth of $2.2K, with a spread of 0.001%—this combination is honest in itself. The extremely narrow spread shows market makers are watching, and the very shallow depth shows no one is willing to place large orders below. More worth noting is the reaction to news: a full $36 million buyback and burn landed, yet $HYPE moved only 0.1% in 24 hours, from 77.42 to 77.72. The buyback authorization was raised from $30 million to $100 million, but the price has already dropped 21% from the September 23 high of 97.96. The positive news caused no ripple, which says more than the shallow depth itself.
So when asked "which coin to trust amid rapid fluctuations," my answer might be unpopular: trust the one whose order book looks worst but has real money voting on-chain, not the one with the thickest orders but macro and capital flows all pulling the ladder.
$ETH's Glamsterdam testnet was originally scheduled for October 26, but the Ethereum Foundation has announced a delay for the Hoodi testnet deployment, with the mainnet date undecided. This catalyst has been pushed back, and the "iron bottom" near 2400 temporarily lost an emotional support point.
Keep an eye on $PEPE as well: from October 19 to 22, exchange supply replenished by 2.11 trillion tokens, exceeding 40% of the previous outflow. Whales are buying but also depositing back to exchanges; volatility under thin depth will be more intense than it appears.
Ultimately, liquidity quality tests "what the order book looks like right now," not "who will win next." $ETH's depth is an institutional defense line above 2400, $PEPE's thin book signals on-chain chips are moving, and $HYPE's ultra-narrow spread reflects buybacks propping the price but unable to hold the trend.
Which you choose depends on whether you bet on depth holding through volatility or chip structure leading price changes.
I bet on the latter. But thin depth means positions must be more restrained than usual, and stop losses harsher than usual. NFA, manage your risks accordingly.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $ETH $PEPE $HYPE The most tormenting thing on the eve of the FOMC is never a crash, but the suffocating feeling of having a wall hanging at 81,000, yet no one knows if there’s anyone behind that wall.
Order book, on-chain, institutions— all three directions are moving tonight. But if you just rush in seeing “buy orders exceeding tens of millions,” you’re very likely to fall into the same trap.
---
First, about that wall at 81,000. It’s real, but it’s not an iron bottom.
Glassnode and Bitfinex order book data show that Binance BTC perpetual’s largest buy order cluster is indeed at 81,000–81,250, hanging there since early October. Near-term buy orders exceed sell orders by about ten million dollars, and there is short-term support below, that’s true.
But “support” and “bottoming” are two different things.
The same data source states very plainly in another report: this buy wall near 80,000 is a limited budget from a specific trader, not a valuation bottom. It was eaten once on October 15, the price dropped to 79,800, and although it was rebuilt later, the rebuilt thickness is thinner than the first time. Glassnode’s original words were “an eroding safety net”—the resistance encountered on the next dip will be weaker than the last.
More worth watching is the funding rate. The $BTC perpetual funding rate has turned negative, with an 8-hour average around -0.0044%, meaning shorts are paying longs. This indicates leveraged longs have mostly been liquidated, with liquidation intensity only one-ninth of the same period last year; the market is indeed no longer “exploding at the slightest touch.” But thinking the other way: if leverage is already cleaned out and the price still can’t rise above 81,000, then what’s pressing down is not liquidations but spot sell orders.
Bitfinex’s pre-FOMC range is 81,300–84,400, while ETF holders’ average cost is 84,333, and the price hasn’t reclaimed that level yet. The trapped positions above are waiting to break even, and the buy wall below is thinning—this is the real situation at 81,000.
Old whales’ moves are more honest than the order book.
That address which swallowed 200,000 $ETH at an average price of $80.97 from 2016–2022 transferred another 1,000 $ETH to Kraken 7 hours ago, worth 2.4 million dollars. The amount isn’t large, but this person’s past selling points are very telling: sold at 3,800 and also at 1,537.
To translate: he’s not a “diamond hand” who won’t move unless it’s over ten thousand. He acts both at cycle highs and panic lows. Now ETH is around 2,400, and he continues moving to exchanges. You might say it’s just a small amount, but the direction doesn’t lie—the oldest batch of chips is not accumulating, it’s unloading.
This creates a subtle tension with the $BTC order book’s “support feeling”: contracts have orders to catch, but the smartest old money on-chain is quietly sending to exchanges. Which side is closer to the truth will be revealed after the FOMC.
---
On the $XRP side, it’s a different story.
Franklin Templeton dumped about 150 million dollars worth of tokenized money market fund shares on the XRPL, with sgBENJI’s total dropping from 48 million to 193 million tokens, all piled in one wallet. At 1.039 dollars per share, that wallet holds nearly 200 million dollars in institutional-grade tokenized assets.
And $XRP’s price? It’s down 13% in 30 days, hovering between 1.25–1.35 dollars, with market sentiment neutral to slightly cold. The price is lying flat, institutions are scooping up real on-chain yield assets, not memes.
This is not a call to chase $XRP now. But on the eve of the FOMC, while everyone is watching the 81,000 buy wall on $BTC that could thin at any moment, someone is moving real money into a long-neglected on-chain money market fund—this signal deserves to be on the watchlist, not to be brushed off.
---
The suspense of the FOMC itself is not in October, but in December.
Latest CME data: 92.8% probability of no change in October, almost a done deal. But the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point hike in December is 74.8%, and a 50 basis point hike still has a 19.5% chance.
In other words, the market has fully priced in “no action in October.” The real factor that will tear the market apart is the shadow of December in Powell’s words. $BTC has been grinding in the 81,000–84,400 range for nearly two weeks, with the fear and greed index stuck between neutral 48–55. At this position, rushing in to bet on direction before the FOMC is essentially betting on the tone of a sentence, not on the structure.
---
Orders are being defended, whales are moving, institutions are laying groundwork. Three signals point in three directions, and the FOMC is the hand pulling all the threads together.
My view is simple: you can watch the wall at 81,000, but don’t bet your life on it. The wall is orders, not faith. Wait for Powell to reveal December’s cards, then decide which side to stand on—it’s much more worthwhile than guessing whether the wall will be eaten through now.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$DOOD Large sell order cost decreased, small sell orders almost unchanged. Simulated slippage for 100,000 scale sell orders dropped from 1.48% to 1.29%. Selling 10,000 still about 0.22%. Cost improvement can moderately restore order volume, still based on actual measured levels.
$AXIS After enlarging orders, slippage on both buy and sell sides increased significantly. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.24%/0.30%, for 100,000 it is 1.12%/1.46%. Depth is discontinuous by scale; the 100,000 level is the real execution constraint.
$IRYS Buy costs for two levels both increased. Simulated buy slippage: 10,000 rose from 0.13% to 0.19%, 100,000 rose from 1.09% to 1.30%. Slippage increased, order book is thinning.$BTC vs $ETH : Smart Money Is Trapped on Both Sides
Shorts dominate both markets, but neither side is comfortably profitable.
BTC has $2.4B in short exposure, with bears facing $126M in unrealized losses. Longs are also underwater, creating pressure on both sides.
ETH shows a similar imbalance, with shorts controlling over 80% of capital.
My view: BTC has greater short-squeeze potential due to its massive bearish exposure. ETH remains vulnerable to further selling, but a recovery could $PEPE PEPE这盘面真的挺有意思。
现货挂单挂得稀稀拉拉，合约持仓反倒凭空暴涨了22%，全是在这高位硬塞进去的多头杠杆。
现货大户压根不愿接盘，纯靠衍生品在左手倒右手。下面连个像样的买盘托底都没有，上面多单全挤成沙丁鱼。
这种盘面只要稍微往下震一脚，立马就是多头排队连环踩踏。没有现货买力托着的杠杆拉升，往下插针只是时间问题。
#PEPE
$PEPE
👇⛏️ The BTC mining industry is undergoing a new round of reshuffling!
The competition for Bitcoin network hashrate continues to heat up, with miners facing multiple challenges between costs, profits, and transformation.
📊 Mining difficulty keeps climbing
According to BlocksBridge Consulting data, BTC mining difficulty increased by 5.92% on October 16, and the next adjustment is expected to rise by another 5.16%. If the forecast holds, the cumulative increase will reach about 11.4%, potentially further squeezing miners' profitability.
🤖 Large mining companies accelerate shift to AI
Some publicly listed mining firms are adjusting strategies, planning to cut about 23% of mining capacity while pursuing approximately 52% revenue growth opportunities in AI business. Hashrate resources are gradually extending into AI infrastructure.
⚡ But mining competition is not cooling down
Small and medium miners in regions with lower electricity costs are actively expanding, with related data showing their purchased mining equipment valued at around $1.5 billion. The transformation of large enterprises does not mean the BTC network competition will weaken.
🎯 Three market directions worth attention:
• Impact of rising mining difficulty on miners' profits
• Whether AI business can truly improve mining companies' revenue structure
• Effect of small and medium miners' expansion on overall network hashrate competition
#AIMemoryDemand As mining companies continue to cash out as much as they mine each month, maintaining high mining costs and daily expenses, they form a stable suppressive force on $BTC. However, the Bitcoin rewards mined now are quite different from those four years ago, with significantly fewer rewards and more coming from transaction fees. Therefore, the suppressive force is not as strong. But with the approaching U.S. midterm elections and the U.S. debt crisis, alongside persistent inflation in the U.S. and the simultaneous risk of interest rate hikes, there is a macro threat to high-risk assets like $ETH and $SOL. At the same time, on-chain whale sell-offs are increasing, especially the plague Arthur Hayes has started to heavily sell altcoins such as ena, zama, ethfi, uni, which had large gains earlier, locking in profits. The adjustment and suppression of altcoins continue to intensify, and the crypto space still faces many risk points.#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
Q3 trading revenue is very likely to remain strong, but growth mainly relies on "existing users trading more," not new money inflows, so exceeding expectations is easy, but sustained valuation increases are difficult.
1. Expectations themselves are not high
Q3 revenue consensus is about $1.43 billion, up only around 12% year-over-year; EPS about $0.55, actually lower than last year's Q3 $0.61. Compared to Q2 revenue of $1.31 billion, +32% YoY, EPS +44% with a big beat, the bar is actually lowered.
2. Trading data is overheated
September's average daily trading volume hit a record: options contract volume is about 11% above consensus, crypto trading volume up 25%, event contracts up 17% month-over-month. BTIG therefore raised Q3 trading revenue expectations and estimated full-year EPS at $2.21. Event contracts earned $156 million in Q2 (12% of revenue); with the soccer season following the World Cup, Piper Sandler is optimistic about continued volume growth in Q4.
3. The hidden risk is "active ≠ growth"
BTIG points out: net inflows in July and August were weak, average deposit per user declined; this strong performance is supported by trading enthusiasm, not user or deposit growth. Event contract volumes dropped 5% and 23% month-over-month in July and August, with some volume shifting to the joint venture exchange Rothera, which may dilute revenue per trade due to revenue sharing. Crypto revenue fell 38% quarter-over-quarter to $100 million in Q2. Additionally, event contracts face lawsuits and regulatory uncertainty in multiple states. $BTC $ETH $XAU Approaching the FOMC meeting, possible variables.
1. Rising oil prices push up inflation stickiness, the market lowers rate cut expectations, repricing the possibility of a rate hike in December
Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset, BTC is a highly elastic risk asset, both substantially impacted by U.S. Treasury bonds
2. 【No rate hike ≠ positive】, the biggest fear is a “hawkish pause”
The real damage lies in Powell’s speech and the dot plot. If the stance leans toward “high rates maintained longer,” it’s a hawkish standstill. Funds are reducing positions early to avoid meeting risks, which is front-running trading.
3. Liquidity stampede amplifies the decline
Previously, gold bulls were crowded, and BTC leveraged positions were also significant. When rate expectations shift, bulls collectively stop loss; during broad market declines, gold may even be liquidated to cover margin, causing forced selling and accelerating a double whammy.
4. Both now share the same root and macro theme, currently BTC and gold are highly correlated, with the main drivers being U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and rate cut expectations.
-Practical approach
Don’t bet on “no rate hike means a rise.”
The focus of this FOMC is not whether to hike rates, but whether the Fed will continue to emphasize inflation risks and delay rate cuts. Before clarity emerges, prioritize controlling leverage and avoid heavy bottom-fishing, waiting for a clear inflection point in expectations. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Floating profits exceeding one million are certainly eye-catching, but what’s truly worth studying about these two trades by Boss Shi is the position sizing.
Both BTC and XRP were shorted with 10x full positions, which sounds like high leverage, but the actual margin used totals about 1.37 million U, less than 20% of the total assets. In other words, he didn’t bet on direction with full positions but left enough room for the positions to have time to realize the trend.
The cost of the BTC short is 86195.3, current price 80989.9, floating profit 780,800 U, return rate 60.39%; XRP was shorted from 1.5022 down to 1.2924, floating profit 251,800 U, return rate 139.68%. The two combined floating profits total about 1,032,600 U, and he has held them for half a month.
This round of trading went smoothly partly because BTC and XRP were both in a corrective structure, and partly because he didn’t frequently tinker after entering. Light positions, following the trend, and holding on—only then did these profits materialize.
A 100% win rate and a maximum drawdown of 3.23% in the past 30 days is indeed impressive, but don’t idolize it outright. The cycle is short and the sample size small; whether it can be replicated going forward remains to be seen.
Currently, the two short positions have not yet taken profits, which only shows he is still sticking to his judgment. The real test of trading ability will come when the market rebounds or reverses—whether he can hold onto profits instead of letting the floating gains slip away. The macroeconomy of the past two decades revolves around two variables: debt and demographic structure.
Population aging slows economic growth, and slower growth makes governments more reliant on borrowing to fill gaps. This cycle is difficult to fully resolve with traditional policies alone.
But another force is emerging: AI, robotics, energy technology, and Crypto could all become part of the next wave of productivity transformation.
The core contradiction of the future is whether growth created by new technologies can outpace the pressures brought by aging and debt expansion. If there is a breakthrough in productivity, the logic of the economy and asset pricing could change; if the technological dividends are not realized quickly enough, the debt problem will still weigh heavily on the market.
To understand the future, we must look at how much debt the old world has accumulated and how much real growth new technologies can actually create.BTC has recently shown resilience against negative factors, which indeed reflects the limited selling pressure in the current market. The previous continuous rally caused a large amount of capital to miss out, resulting in relatively concentrated spot holdings.
However, resilience does not mean an immediate surge.
This firmness is partly due to the exhaustion of selling pressure within the market and partly because institutional funds like ETFs are providing support.
If macroeconomic negative factors continue to ferment and liquidity tightens, the market could very well enter a prolonged sideways consolidation to digest valuations.
A good chip structure is a necessary condition for a rise, but the start of a main upward wave ultimately requires a warming of macro sentiment and the genuine entry of incremental funds.