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$ETH 【About ten days before the midterm elections, the crypto space must first get through the interest rate hurdle】
November 3 is the U.S. midterm election day, not a presidential election. But closer are the October 27–28 Federal Reserve meetings, both dates local to the U.S. For BTC and ETH, I pay more attention to interest rate signals rather than assuming “someone will support the market before the election.”
This round of recovery already lacks momentum: spot trading volume samples this morning are weak, both BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw net outflows on October 22, and overnight oil prices and long-term interest rates rose again. The election may add policy uncertainty, but we can’t attribute the current weakness entirely to it.
My baseline judgment is that from now until election day, the market will likely oscillate repeatedly, and the recovery is easily interrupted by news. I’m watching whether the congressional makeup will change crypto policy expectations, but there’s still a long way between campaign statements and policy implementation.
If interest rate signals turn milder, oil prices cool down, and spot trading volume recovers, I will raise my confidence in the continuation of the recovery; if yields or geopolitical risks rise again, we still need to guard against a second downturn. The election is not a guarantee of a rally, and the results do not mean risks automatically disappear.
$BTC $ETH
Conditional observation, not investment advice. $BTC $ETH #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ In the futures market, for the same long position, some use it to follow the trend, while others just try to capture a segment of volatility. Just looking at the direction doesn't reveal the nuances. My old habit when looking at position size is to first calculate how much adverse movement it can withstand, then consider how much profit it can make.
This time, on-chain monitoring shows that Core Trader 14 (0x24fb65…bed0f) opened a long $BTC position with 40x leverage, holding 10.5 contracts, with a notional value of about $848,800. My judgment is that this trade tests position management the most; opening a long position alone doesn't indicate how long the trader plans to be bullish.
Roughly calculating initial margin by dividing the notional value by leverage, it corresponds to about $21,200; if the price moves 1% against the position, the loss would be about $8,488, which is 40% of this margin. This is a simplified estimate; the actual liquidation price depends on margin mode, additional funds, and maintenance margin, so you can't directly take a 2.5% adverse move as the liquidation line.
Coming from traditional commodities to crypto, I especially pay attention to the fact that trading is 24/7 here, so monitoring and stop-loss arrangements need to be readjusted. My rule is still to first decide how much I can afford to lose, then determine the position size. Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? When facing such 40x leverage, do you prefer to reduce position size first or tighten stop-losses, and why?The Federal Reserve meets next week and the consensus leans toward no further rate increase, yet the incoming chair has refused to signal anything in advance. That silence matters more than it might appear. With rates expected to hold at 3.75%-4.00%, headline CPI still at 3.7% and core CPI at 2.6%, the disinflation story looks less settled than the pause narrative implies. Traders positioning for a benign outcome are effectively buying a forecast that has not been confirmed. That tension is visiChatting briefly about three targets in the early morning📝, market drivers have little correlation with the Federal Reserve interest rates.
$DOGE 0.08 🐶
Major news: Bitwise Dogecoin Spot ETF (BWOW) officially liquidated.
This institutional trial-and-error has proven that Meme coins without cash flow cannot take the ETF route for now❌.
Don’t expect the narrative of “DOGE launching an ETF” to pump the price; the current price is purely supported by community sentiment, and liquidity is poor over the weekend, making a rally unlikely.
$UNITREE 76.81 🤖
The robotics theme is showing an independent market!
While tech stocks overall are weak, it rebounded over 6% against the trend. The pricing core depends on Series A financing and product delivery; the market cap is small, and news causes huge volatility.
Be sure to distinguish: is it a solid product launch or just pure concept hype.
$RE 0.389 🛡️
On-chain insurance coin, basically in a “shutdown state” over the weekend.
The contract has a built-in automatic risk compensation pool, but daily trading is thin, and weekend funds are even less.
To trigger a rally, a chain-linked cascade liquidation event is needed; for now, just quietly observe.
💡Simple summary:
The overall market is waiting for the FOMC, but some small-cap coins follow independent narratives with completely different speculation logic; don’t mix them when watching the market. The same dollar — different risk. On October 22, SoFi launched SOFIE: a tokenized deposit with a variable interest rate of 4.40% per annum as of October 20 and FDIC insurance within limits. It can be exchanged 1:1 for SoFiUSD to purchase crypto assets and make transfers. But after the exchange, it is a different product: SoFiUSD is not a deposit and is not FDIC insured. A filter for any “yield dollar”: who is the debtor, where the rate comes from, and what changes after conversion.The green candle is lying. That is the uncomfortable message from this week’s order-flow data, where a flat, low-volume tape is being read by retail traders as a bottom forming rather than what it more closely resembles: a distribution window. Long-account ratios among smaller investors remain elevated, while aggressive sell volume keeps printing fresh peaks and dwarfing active buying. In plain terms, the crowd is holding the bid and catching a falling knife while larger capital uses the sideway黄金在跌，股票在跌，$BTC 在跌，白银在跌，连网页都开始崩了——当所有资产同时熄火，钱到底去了哪里？😂 答案并不神秘：现金、短期国债、保证金账户，以及被强制平仓后用来还债的那部分资金。真正值得追问的不是“钱消失了”，而是这场同步下跌究竟只是一次去杠杆，还是一场更大规模流动性危机的开场。 先厘清一个常见误读：资产价格下跌不等于等量资金蒸发。一部分钱确实转移了——从风险资产撤入避险工具；另一部分则随估值收缩而“账面消失”，它从未以现金形式存在过。理解这个区别，才能读懂当下这轮全资产抛售的真实性质。当市场遭遇流动性冲击，投资者会抛售此前最受追捧的资产来换取现金，连黄金和$BTC 都未必能幸免。这不是避险逻辑失效，而是现金在最恐慌的时刻本身就是最稀缺的资产。 这里藏着一个被多数人低估的信号：当黄金、股票、$BTC 同步下跌，说明抛售的动机不是“看空某类资产”，而是“需要钱”。前者是配置轮动，后者是流动性挤压。两者的后续路径完全不同——轮动会带来结构性机会，挤压则往往伴随连锁强平与保证金追缴。$ETH、$SOL 这类高贝塔资产在这种环境里通常承压更明显，因为它们是杠杆资金最先被清理的仓位；而$BTC is consolidating around 80,722.7, down 1.19% in 24h with a volatility of only 2.0%. Long liquidations reached $31.28 million, significantly more than short liquidations at $14.44 million. The price drop in gold jewelry reflects weak physical gold demand and has no direct capital flow connection with the crypto price, thus weakly influencing the market. Our data aligns with this: DVOL at 37.7, options are not pricing in large volatility; funding rates for three periods have not exceeded 0.0100%, and long leverage has not been forced to unwind. The bearish signal appears in options trading, with a put/call ratio of 1.20, higher than the open interest ratio of 0.93, indicating more new contracts are buying protection. The judgment is short-term weak consolidation, with the low of 80,461.6 likely to be retested. Bearish reversal condition: break below 80,461.6 while contract open interest rises above $7.5 billion, indicating increased short positions chasing the drop. Bullish reversal condition: reclaim above 82,035.3 while put/call ratio falls back to around 0.93.#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
U.S. Stock Market Analysis: Oil Prices Break $116 Trigger Inflation Panic, Dow Plunges 650 Points, Money Flows from Stocks and Bonds to Energy
Overnight, U.S. stocks faced a double hit in stocks and bonds. The Dow plunged 1.23% to close at 52,215 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.52%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.21%. Brent crude surged to $116.72, WTI broke through $103, and concerns over Middle East supply disruptions fully ignited inflation anxiety.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned above 5%, with safe-haven funds unusually abandoning gold for U.S. bonds, and spot gold falling below the $4,000 mark.
The macro impact chain on assets is clear:
Oil price surge → rising inflation expectations → risk assets sold off ahead of the Fed meeting. The consumer staples sector led the decline, down 1.83%, with Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble acting as cash cows; the energy sector bucked the trend, rising 2.51% to hit a record high, with Schlumberger soaring 7% after earnings.
Cybersecurity stocks strengthened amid PHP vulnerability panic, with CrowdStrike rising over 8%. Apple's intraday market cap briefly surpassed Nvidia's but closed slightly down 0.14%, as new product enthusiasm failed to translate into buying.
Oil prices have replaced credit concerns as the core variable suppressing valuations, with defensive sectors sold off first, and funds concentrating on energy and a few leading tech stocks. Ahead of the Fed meeting, chasing any asset requires weighing the knife of inflation.The pause in October is not a positive development but a smokescreen. The market is self-excited, fixated on the 92.8% probability of a pause, but what we should really fear is that the PMI shows the fastest increase in sales prices since August 2022. Inflation is shifting gears; the door for December is definitely not closed. The Federal Reserve is taking a cautious approach, looking three steps ahead. The October hold is just to save face for the data, not a free pass for risk assets.
BTC is currently consolidating, waiting for a signal. ETF funds flow in pulses; a few days ago, it just took a small hit but can give back most of it in a day, indicating that the incoming money is trading capital, not allocation capital. The resistance above is stacked with the annual opening price and moving averages, and without sustained net inflows, it can't break through. Real buy orders accumulate only at the lower cost bands. I won’t chase this position; I’ll wait for the FOMC to release the December wording before making a move.
ETH is simpler; it’s just the shadow of BTC, and the shadow breaks first. ETF outflows are even harder to stop than BTC’s. There’s no new narrative in the ecosystem to pull off-exchange funds in. When BTC consolidates, ETH appears stable; when BTC weakens, ETH falls fastest. Don’t mistake consolidation for stabilization.
XAUT shouldn’t be viewed only as a safe haven or a rising asset. It bounces when U.S. Treasury yields fall, but if high interest rates persist, the short-term rebound will be fleeting. The real support comes from central bank purchases and geopolitical factors. Once the market seriously prices in that the fiscal side can’t sustain high interest rates, gold will follow an independent trajectory. Don’t mix its rhythm with BTC’s. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
The market generally prices in the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes in October, but a pause does not mean a shift to easing policy. The biggest risk in this meeting comes from the post-meeting statements.
U.S. core inflation remains sticky, combined with potential upward pressure from rising oil prices. If the meeting signals a hawkish tone, implying that the option to raise rates in December remains, the rebound in U.S. Treasury yields will continue to suppress risk assets. Additionally, there is no consensus within the FOMC; some members still support further tightening, so the voting results and dot plot could exceed expectations.
Short-term market moves are easily disturbed by fluctuating expectations, so do not simply bet on “pause in rate hikes equals positive.” Focus on the wording of the post-meeting press conference, strictly control positions, and avoid sharp volatility around the news release.
$BTC $ETH ETH has dropped to 2379, I just took a quick look at the spot order book and found it quite interesting.
On Coinbase, there is a buy order of $13,725,900 and a sell order of $10,238,800, with the buy side exceeding the sell side by $3,487,100. Binance spot also has thicker buy orders than sell orders, but the scale is not as large as Coinbase.
This makes me a bit conflicted. Previously, ETH fell steadily from above 2500, today it touched a low of 2352, then rebounded near 2400 but was pushed back down. Plus, that ancient whale who bought in at an ICO cost of only $0.31 just sold 1000 ETH. I originally wanted to keep looking for shorting opportunities.
But looking at the order book now, there is at least a batch of buy orders waiting around 2370–2380, so I'm a bit hesitant to short directly.
Of course, orders can be withdrawn at any time, and a thick buy side doesn’t necessarily mean someone will actually buy. Especially on weekends when liquidity is poor, a large order on a thin order book exchange can move the price first.
I still want to wait for ETH to rebound to around 2395–2410 before shorting, and if it goes above 2425, I’ll admit I was wrong and first watch 2360. If it breaks below 2352 directly and the buy orders clearly withdraw, then I will reconsider chasing shorts.
Right now, what I want to watch most is the buy wall on Coinbase. That $13.72 million buy order looks intimidating. If it really drops to around 2360 again, will those orders be filled or suddenly disappear?
I was about to open a short near 2380 just now, but after checking the order book, I pulled back.$DOT Bitcoin is dozing sideways at 82,000, and with no new stories for funds to chase, they’ve started revisiting old accounts.
DOT, along with DASH and ATOM, these old-timers, are catching up in a cluster—pretty slick moves. The bulls on the order book dare to push hard upward, mainly because they’re confident the chips are clean.
Annual inflation has been cut directly by 53.6%, plus these old coins have long been fully circulated, so there’s none of the messy chain unlocking dumps that new projects have now.
This round of bullish structural repair is pretty clean, support is solid, so we’ll follow the chart to see how far it can climb.
#DOT
$DOT
👇$XRP contract retail bulls have completely gone crazy this round.
The long-short ratio was directly pushed to 3.34 by retail traders.
But looking at the big holders' positions, the long-short ratio is still hanging at 1.52 pretending to be dead.
Big funds are completely watching coldly, it's all a bunch of small retail traders holding against the trend.
Such a fat bullish liquidity is glaringly displayed on the order book, the main force smashing down with one spike is just a matter of convenience.
#XRP
$XRP
👇ETH options send another signal before the FOMC: protection demand leans toward ETH, BTC bulls remain calmer
First, look at two sets of derivatives data:
On the BTC side, position sentiment is relatively stable:
• Among the 6 most active option contracts, 5 are call options; the call contract expiring on 11-27 with a strike price of 98,000 USD is the hottest in trading
• The 1-week option put skew has dropped from 14% mid-month to 4%, indicating a clear cooling of downside concerns
On the ETH side, the defensive positions are more crowded:
• Put options occupy the top two in trading volume; the put contract expiring on 10-26 with a strike price of 2200 USD has about 9,000 contracts, leading in volume
• The 1-week 25Δ put is 7.4 vol points more expensive than similar calls (CoinbaseMarkets data)
Judgment: This is not simply bearish on ETH, but a hedging action by large holders before the FOMC on 10-27/28. More notably, the protection is concentrated on ETH, without a corresponding buildup on BTC.
Interpretation: The options market is pricing in "ETH is more fragile than BTC." ETH's current price is 2377, still struggling below 2400; BTC can still hold at 81,000. This price difference is expressed by the options market through protection costs.
$BTC $ETH $IRYS #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Just finished lunch, brothers let out a full burp and opened the market screen, does the meal suddenly lose its appeal? Over the weekend, BTC sideways again, and these few altcoins below have started the slaughter mode
$ZEC current price around 1173, down 4.4%. Logically, with such a drop, the shorts should be making a killing, right? But looking at the 4-hour long-short ratio, it's only about 1.30, and the open interest is steadily declining. This indicates the bulls have all been washed out, now the shorts are extremely crowded. Chasing shorts at this time risks a short squeeze counterattack by the big players
Next, $HYPE current price around 77.2, the drop doesn't look much, but the data is painfully clear. The 4-hour long-short ratio is as high as 2.57! Retail bulls are stubborn to the extreme, holding on desperately, the position is too heavy, most likely it will be smashed down further to clean out the leverage
Finally, $UNI current price 6.95, down 3.3%, heading straight for the previous low of 6.79. This position is ridiculously heavy too, the 4-hour long-short ratio has surged to 2.64, and open interest is sharply shrinking during the decline, indicating a batch of bullish leverage has already blown up, but the remaining retail investors are still holding on desperately. Once it breaks the previous low, it could trigger a new round of cascading liquidations
Summary: In the current market, as long as retail bullish sentiment doesn't die, the market will struggle to find a bottom. BTC sideways conceals the bloodbath in altcoins. Continue to stay out and wait for this wave of high leverage to be completely cleaned out
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 I suspect that those big bullish candles of IRYS last night triggered a bunch of altcoin pumpers.
I was ready to chill over the weekend, but when I checked the gainers list today, BIRB surged 85%, BMT 60%, INU 41%, ERA 25%, all as if they had coordinated.
The funniest part is BTC is still hovering around 81,000, ETH can’t even hold 2,400, the major coins are barely moving, while some small coins are already doubling.
Last night, I thought such an extreme move from IRYS would be hard to see again. Unexpectedly, just a few hours later, the gainers list started to stir collectively.
I’ve seen this scene too many times before. When a coin suddenly pumps several times, people who originally had no trading interest get drawn out. Some chase the highs, some look for the next target, and some watch the gainers list preparing to short.
Now I’m actually curious to see those small coins that have been sideways for a long time and suddenly start increasing volume. Weekend liquidity is poor, so the cost to pump might be lower than usual. If someone really wants to stir things up, a few 15-minute candles can hype the heat.
But IRYS has now dropped back to around 0.09, nearly half down from last night’s high of 0.16873. Those who jumped in at the top yesterday probably aren’t laughing now.
Damn, this kind of market easily gets people hyped. Watching others multiply their holdings overnight while you’re stuck waiting for a few hundred points rebound on BTC is really frustrating.
I just checked the gainers list again, and BIRB has already surged to first place. #现货黄金跌破4000美元关口
The boss has something to say
Spot gold has fallen below the $4000 mark, dropping about 4% this week. The Middle East situation persists, but the safe-haven demand can't stop the gold price from falling.
Why the drop? Inflation concerns driven by rising oil prices, combined with changes in interest rate expectations, are suppressing gold. More importantly, market volatility has created liquidity needs, causing some investors to sell gold to raise cash. Once liquidity dries up for high-level assets, they get used to cover holes.
I believe this round of gold decline is the trigger for "rate hikes reloading." The comment in the discussion section is very accurate: with oil prices soaring, the crypto market is taking the hit for inflation. When Brent crude burns, the Fed's rate cut script goes up in smoke. Safe-haven funds are not buying crypto; both gold and BTC are falling, indicating the market is trading on tightening expectations.
In this environment, BTC is unlikely to remain unaffected. ZEC short positions might recover before long positions because the macro outlook is bearish.
BTC took a waterfall drop last night; now we watch if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Don't chase the rally or kill the dip; set your stop losses properly. $BTC $ETH $IRYS
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set your stop losses. Good luck.To be honest, whenever I used to see news about mining companies selling coins, the first thought that popped into my head was: Did they know something in advance? Later, I realized that taking someone else's business moves as your own directional signal is a trap in itself.
This time Bitdeer disclosed on X that as of October 23, it produced 283.4 BTC this week, all of which have been sold, resulting in a net increase of 0 BTC. Currently, their Bitcoin holdings stand at 0 BTC, excluding customer deposits. Seeing "zero holdings" does tend to make people lean toward a bearish sentiment on $BTC.
My judgment is: selling coins brings supply, but this news as a bearish basis carries limited weight. What was sold is this week's production, which cannot be directly interpreted as suddenly liquidating a large amount of historical inventory; moreover, data from a single mining company does not simultaneously tell us how the market demand is absorbing it, so it cannot be used to infer the direction of the entire market.
This reminds me of the kind of market atmosphere where everyone looks for reasons to justify price rises or falls based on news. The most common mistake ordinary people make is translating "they sold" into "I must rush to short," missing several layers of judgment in between.
Now I stick to two rules: when seeing mining companies selling coins, first distinguish between production sales and inventory changes; a single piece of information does not trigger contract opening positions, no matter how urgent the sentiment is. Have you ever been misled by news like "mining companies selling coins"? Would you be willing to share a rule you later established?IRYS has completely ignited the altcoin market this weekend. Damn, we were just discussing yesterday whether to short it after a 100% rise, but it suddenly surged to 0.16873 overnight, more than 8 times the intraday low.
Opening the gainers list today, things are heating up. BIRB is up 85%, BMT up 60%, IRYS had a sharp pullback but still gained 43% in 24 hours, INU up 41%, and ERA also rose 25%.
BTC is still struggling around 81,000, ETH can't even hold 2400, but these altcoins are all showing strong momentum.
I feel many small-time manipulators are getting restless. IRYS's huge pump last night drew all liquidity and attention to it, and the trading funds for other small coins are probably drooling. Especially on weekends when the order book is thin, even a bit of concentrated capital can push the candlesticks to look extremely exaggerated.
What worries me most now is that once this money-making effect spreads, everyone will start hunting for the next IRYS across the market. A 30% rise gets no attention, 80% starts attracting followers, and once it doubles, the whole network is talking about it.
But I haven't forgotten when IRYS crashed back from 0.16873 to around 0.12 last night—the crazier the pump, the scarier the dump.
I'm planning to keep watching the weekend altcoin gainers list, especially those small coins that suddenly show volume spikes and continuously break previous highs.
BIRB and BMT have already moved today; will it be the turn of others next?The derivatives tape is telling three different stories about the same market. Liquidation data for $HYPE, $XRP and $ZEC over the past 24 hours shows a combined washout running into the millions, but the composition of that damage matters far more than the headline totals. $HYPE presents the cleanest one-sided flush. Roughly $2.40 million was liquidated over 24 hours, with about $2.29 million of that from long positions and only $110,700 from shorts. The one-hour window sharpens the picture: $10The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has just expanded their BLOOM project, increasing participants to 3 central banks, 24 industry members, and the World Bank Group, while $RLUSD remains the only Token specifically named in the project. Ajian explains to friends who don't understand that this project mainly focuses on Tokenization and blockchain applications in financial markets, with Ripple responsible for testing the integration of RLUSD with Unloq, which is quite significant. If real trade settlement, cross-institution collateral, or capital market transactions can truly emerge later, it might even have an impact on $XRP 🤔 Bitcoin is getting stronger and stronger
Trends from the end of 2021 to now in 2026
Total crypto market cap was 2.97 trillion USD in 2021,
2.76 trillion USD in 2026, a slight decrease of about 7.1%
BTC market cap was 1.13 trillion USD at the end of 2021, now 1.66 trillion USD in 2026, an increase of about 46.9%
BTC's share was 38.0% in 2021, now 60.2% in 2026, a significant increase of 22.2%
Other tokens had a market cap of 1.84 trillion USD in 2021, now 1.10 trillion USD in 2026, shrinking about 40.2%
Interpretation behind the data
1. Significantly strengthened dominance: Bitcoin's market share jumped from 38% to 60.2%, indicating that amid overall crypto market fluctuations, funds tend to concentrate more on Bitcoin, further reinforcing its "leader" and "digital gold" attributes.
2. Counter-trend expansion: Although the total crypto market cap slightly decreased from 2.97 trillion to 2.76 trillion, Bitcoin's own market cap increased from 1.13 trillion to 1.66 trillion, demonstrating strong resilience and growth capability.
3. Relative decline of altcoins (other tokens): The total market cap of other tokens sharply shrank from 1.84 trillion to 1.10 trillion, with their share dropping from 62% to 39.8%. This reflects market funds withdrawing from higher-risk altcoins The market sentiment remains tense this afternoon. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $498 million, with $340 million in long liquidations and $158 million in short liquidations; the bulls are still bleeding continuously. BTC briefly plunged and is now hovering between 80,947–81,212, with 80,515 as the key support below. If it fails to reclaim 81,200 above, any rebound is just a paper tiger. ETH is tugging around 2,380, with 2,376-2,337 as the first support zone, 2,313 as the bottom line, and 2,417-2,461 as strong resistance above. If it can't break above, the bearish logic remains unchanged. SOL is the weakest; the Fibonacci level at 102.09 is close to the swing low of 100.43. Breaking below 100 points directly to 80, while the two resistance levels at 107.65 and 110.91 are tightly suppressing it.
The short position average price for ETH at 2383.26 is exactly stuck at the lower edge of the key resistance zone between 2,376-2,417. Keep a close watch on 2,350. If ETH cannot fall below or shows signs of stabilizing in the 2,350-2,383 range, short positions should take profits and not be greedy for the last bit. If BTC simultaneously breaks below 80,515, ETH will likely break below 2,350 as well, at which point short positions can be held with targets down to 2,313 or even lower. Use 20x full position leverage, do not hold losing positions, do not add to positions, and take profits when possible.
In short: Shorting at the upper edge of the resistance zone is a smart move, but even smart trades need to exit quickly. If BTC breaks 80,515 and ETH breaks 2,350, your short positions will yield big profits; if they hold, take your gains and secure them.#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Trading Notes on the October 24 Earnings Report｜The crazier Robinhood users trade, does the platform make more money?
Robinhood will release its Q3 earnings after the U.S. market closes on October 27, early morning Beijing time on October 28.
Analysts expect revenue of about $1.44 billion and earnings per share of $0.56.
More noteworthy are the trading data for the first 24 days of September:
Stock trading volume was about $267 billion.
Options trading was about 234 million contracts.
Crypto trading was about $17 billion.
Event contracts traded about 4.4 billion units.
This company is transforming from a stock trading platform into a multi-asset trading and prediction market gateway.
But large trading volume does not necessarily mean profits grow in sync.
🔮 Trading Plan
15 minutes: After the earnings report, wait for the opening range to form; do not chase the first sharp rally.
1 hour: Watch for a volume breakout above the range high, then observe if the uptrend continues; if it breaks below the low and the rebound fails, guard against pullbacks.
4 hours: Combine earnings guidance and trend direction to decide whether to continue holding.
Retail investors are responsible for trading; the platform is responsible for operations. What really matters is how much profit Robinhood ultimately retains after the trading frenzy.
Are you more optimistic about its crypto business or the prediction market?
$HOOD The annualized staking yield for SOL is currently around 7% to 8%. Many people only know there is a yield but don't know where it comes from. The sources are twofold: one is network inflation issuance, and the other is transaction fees.
Network inflation is the Solana protocol proportionally issuing new SOL. The newly issued portion is distributed to validators and delegators according to their staking proportion. This yield is not wealth created out of thin air; it is obtained by diluting all SOL holders. Those who stake receive the newly issued SOL, while those who do not stake have their holding proportions diluted. So, the essence of staking yield is: reclaiming the share that would have been diluted by staking.
The transaction fee part is the base fee paid for each transaction on the network, distributed according to validator weight. When Solana processes thousands to tens of thousands of transactions per second, this yield becomes considerable; when on-chain activity is low, the transaction fee portion to be distributed is very small.
Together, these two parts mean that the real significance of staking is that holding and staking SOL can outpace inflation dilution, effectively preventing your holdings from shrinking; if you don't stake, your holdings will be diluted by the inflation issuance proportion each year.
$SOL is currently around 102.5. If holders do not stake their SOL, their nominal holdings remain unchanged, but in reality, they are diluted by more than 7% annually. Staking is not extra income; it is reclaiming the portion that originally belongs to you. [Crypto Circle Script]
#Middle East crude oil supply risks rise again, oil prices continue to strengthen
This crude oil really knows how to find reasons
Prices rise when supply is tight
Prices remain high even when supply recovers
BTC dropped directly to 80456 this morning 📉
Now worries about conflict start again
Anyway, there’s always a reason for prices not to fall
This is interesting
More and more oil tankers are running
Yet oil prices remain high
Before, the worry was no oil to buy
Now the worry is oil can’t be transported even if available?
To put it simply
The market isn’t afraid of oil shortage today
But sudden supply cut-off tomorrow
After all, the Strait of Hormuz is too important
A large amount of global oil transport passes through here
If the situation escalates again
Even if oil fields don’t stop production
As long as transportation is affected
Crude oil supply could face problems
So now in oil prices
There’s not only supply and demand
But also market concerns about future conflicts
What’s more troublesome
Is that long-term high oil prices
May push inflation pressure up again
The U.S. wasn’t in a hurry to cut interest rates anyway
Now energy prices add more pressure
For BTC and U.S. stocks
This is not good news
But risk premiums
Come fast
And may go fast too
If the situation eases later
Transportation continues to recover
The previously inflated risk premiums
May quickly fall back
So what’s most worth watching now
Is not how much crude oil rose today
But whether the Middle East situation will continue to escalate
Brothers, what do you think?
Can this wave of oil prices keep rising
Or has the risk already been fully priced in?
$BTC $ETH $IRYS Western Digital's report of customers discussing supply needs for 2030-2031 is encouraging, but it establishes interest rather than contracted demand or margins. The rebound in SK Hynix and Micron therefore reads as a reset in expectations, not proof that AI memory pricing has turned. Capex discipline will decide how much demand reaches profitability.
#AIMemoryDemand Operation on 10.24: Short positions are the path of least resistance, beware of bull traps
After breaking on 8.1, although it didn't drop further, crypto has already shown a weak pattern against US stocks
The capital market faces triple troubles of inflation + stagflation + expected returns, so we see various major assets moving in a very conflicted way:
US stocks - tech fell then recovered, consumer stocks fell, the main trading theme shifted from expected returns to inflation
US Treasury yields - fell to 4.9 then rebounded to 5.0, funds want to hedge but fear inflation
Gold - the only one continuously falling, everyone fears risk but it's not yet at a safe haven level
In terms of attributes, #BTC is right in the middle of several asset classes. So trading volume and turnover rate have been low these two days, which is why no clear direction emerged after the 8.1 breakdown. The situation is still bearish, but it's not recommended to bet on direction. Better to wait for 80,000 or after 8.2 to follow the trend SK Hynix's Q3 report, what I most want to hear about is the mass production yield of HBM4, not just how many orders were secured.
The company is scheduled to announce its Q3 results on October 28. Whether HBM4 can boost quarterly profits cannot yet be concluded in advance.
New products are priced high and naturally attractive, but how many qualified products can be produced during manufacturing also affects costs. Especially with complex stacking and packaging, after securing orders, stable delivery is required to truly demonstrate profitability.
SK Hynix has previously emphasized the importance of yield, quality, and supply capability. This time, I am more eager to see whether these advantages continue after the new generation product ramps up.
If revenue growth is accompanied by cost control, that growth will be more convincing; if higher costs are incurred to meet delivery deadlines, profit improvement may be slower than the market expects.
I am optimistic about HBM demand, but it is no longer easy to be directly impressed by the words "next-generation product." Competitors are also advancing technology, and customers will ultimately compare performance, price, and supply stability.
What truly makes me willing to raise my evaluation is the company's ability to repeatedly deliver complex products on time and with quality. Everyone gets excited when parameters are released, but after the financial report comes out, we find out how well the factory is performing.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ [Q4 Demand Review: Macro Raises Prices, Three Functional Modules Roll Back Together]
Middle East Brent crude closed at $116.72, a six-week high; WTI stands above 103, and the probability of a 25bp rate hike in December has been pushed to 74.8% by CME. The demand description is just one sentence: risk assets first take a step down.
Module A · $BTC: Current quote around 80,900. User feedback data is very divided—net inflow about 1.07 billion in the first three days, single-day outflow of 635.6 million on Thursday, wiping out nearly 60%, and cumulative net outflow of about 176 million in October. Conclusion: inflows are gray-scale testing, not official volume release; price hasn't collapsed because selling pressure hasn't increased, not because of any bottom-support logic.
Module B · $ETH: 2,383, repeatedly testing the 2,400 level. ETF side cumulative outflow about 1.18 billion in October, with BlackRock's ETHA as the largest outflow source. But staking side’s network share at about 36% hits a record high; whales are locking up, ETFs are redeeming, the same asset running two sets of KPIs.
Module C · $SOL: 102–103. Alpenglow launched, finality compressed from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, version delivery quality is fine; price fell from 108 to 104, ETF had net inflow only on two trading days in October, cumulative outflow about 68 million. Typical "feature launch equals user loss."
Review conclusion: When macro changes, the three modules first absorb a round for the entire system. ETF buying is maintaining stability, not driving growth.$XRP
Retracement is greater than BTC, how can payment use become support?
In this morning's spot snapshot, XRP's 24-hour price change was -1.31%, ranging from 1.2818 to 1.3308 USDT.
Payment adoption does not necessarily correspond to long-term holding. With fast settlement turnover and short capital retention, business activity may increase, but secondary market buying may not increase proportionally.
Verify the actual use of the token and sustained demand; if there is only business exposure while the relative price continues to decline, the payment narrative cannot be used to explain undervaluation in the short term.The most outrageous coin these past two days has to be $IRYS, which surged nearly 250% in 24 hours with a trading volume of over a billion dollars 🤯
But I really don't recommend chasing it now. On the 1-hour chart, the day before yesterday it was just above 0.02, then volume picked up starting at 11 PM last night. At 3 AM, the upper wick shot up near 0.40, then in the same hour it was slammed back down to 0.11, and later dropped to 0.060. At 9 AM it pulled back up to 0.128, now hovering just above 0.09. Chasing this kind of movement is basically carrying the bag for others.
My own plan is to wait for a pullback:
0.083 was the low at 11 AM, I’ll place long orders between 0.0835-0.0855.
Stop loss at 0.0775; if it falls back to the 0.07 platform from this morning, it means the hype is gone and I’ll admit I was wrong and exit.
Target 1 is 0.103, the high at noon; Target 2 is 0.1125, the high at 10 AM. I’ll take half off at Target 1 and move the stop loss to break even on the rest.
This coin can move 20% in one candle, so I’m only using half my usual position size. If it breaks 0.0775 without looking back, I won’t touch it; if it doesn’t pull back and rockets straight to 0.103, I won’t chase either. The funding rate is only 0.0025%, longs aren’t crowded yet, and that’s the only reason I’m willing to participate.
Will you catch the pullback here, or think these meme coins are not worth touching?
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR
#IRYS #ContractStrategy #MemeCoin$ZEC If you had invested $1000 in every major coin at the 2021 bull peak and held for 5 years...
After analyzing 33 major coins, only 6 have actually made a profit to date.
You'd think that extending the timeline would let faith overcome bull and bear markets, but reality is really harsh. Even more surreal is that the ones who made huge profits and those who lost everything are completely beyond comprehension.In crypto, liquidity can matter just as much as price.
An asset may show an attractive market price, but if trading activity is thin, entering or exiting a large position can move the price against you.
Before judging a token by its chart, consider its trading depth, spreads, and the size of the position you want to take.
A price is only useful if you can trade near it.Countdown 3 days: The outcome of the October meeting is basically written, the risk is in December
FOMC meets next Tuesday, and the market pricing has tilted even more: the probability of no change is about 92%, with rate hikes only in the single digits remaining. This meeting has no dot plot, so the decision itself holds little suspense; the key is what Powell says at the press conference. The real change is later: a Reuters survey of 100 economists shows all expect another rate hike in December, whereas less than half held this view a month ago. There's also a new variable in the middle — Brent crude rose 6% in a week to 116.7, and if oil prices don't retreat, the risk in December will only grow bigger. My stance remains unchanged: BTC won't move unless it breaks 80,000, waiting for Wednesday's statement and Powell's words. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $BTC 🍱 Four coins at noon on Saturday, each linked to what
$BTC 82300, weekend position management is more important than price prediction 📈
Before the interest rate decision next Tuesday, 82300 is a middle ground, neither bulls nor bears have the advantage. My approach is not to add or reduce positions over the weekend, saving bullets for Tuesday. If you already hold on Friday, don’t watch over the weekend; it’s pointless.
$ENA 0.1927, what’s the difference between USDe and USDT 🌬️
USDe is synthesized by Ethena using a collateral portfolio, without holding USD cash, earning basis income for holders by going long spot and short futures. Those buying at 0.1927 seek extra yield, not just a stablecoin.
$HYPE 80, what’s the difference between on-chain order books and AMM 📊
Hyperliquid is a real order book where buyers and sellers place orders directly for matching, similar to traditional exchange experience. The 80 token is the platform’s fee share distributed to holders; the more active the on-chain trading, the more it benefits.
$SOL 104, what applications are hottest in the ecosystem now 🚀
Recently, the most active on Solana isn’t DeFi but memes and micro-payments. This chain is fast and has low fees, naturally suitable for high-frequency small applications. At 104, the ecosystem is hot, but the price hasn’t fully reflected it yet.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#Coinbase integrates Deribit, can Q3 revenue improve?⚠️ Big Brother Maji's position this time is clearly playing "long-short hedging," but the real danger might be $HYPE.
The latest perpetual positions show a total scale of about 58.04 million U, with BTC short, ETH long, and an added HYPE short position, making the overall setup look more like hedging market volatility with positions in different directions.
📌 BTC: Short
About 244 BTC, nominal value 19.87 million U, 40x full position; average price around 84070, currently floating profit about 640,000 U, liquidation line near 106241.
📌 ETH: Long
About 7224 ETH, value 17.35 million U, 25x full position; entry around 2500, currently floating loss about 710,000 U, liquidation price about 1537.
📌 HYPE: Short
About 268,000 tokens, position about 20.82 million U, 5x full position; cost near 66.24, currently floating loss already exceeding 3 million U, liquidation zone near 98.35.
The most worth watching is still the HYPE short: the floating loss scale is far higher than the other two, and if the price continues to rise, the short position may face further squeeze.
So this combination cannot be simply understood as "bearish on the market," but more like directional speculation among different assets.
Next, focus on the linkage of $ETH $IRYS $ZEC, and whether $HYPE continues to be squeezed. The more intense the market, the more important position management becomes. #SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings THE ACTIVITY ILLUSION Why On-Chain Activity Is Not the Same as Real Adoption Market Insights: Network Growth, User Behavior, and Sustainable Crypto Ecosystems The Opening Question What if a blockchain could show rising activity, growing transaction counts, and thousands of participating wallets—yet still struggle to build a product people genuinely want to use? This is one of the most important questions in crypto market analysis. The industry has become increasingly skilled at measuring activitHistory always repeats itself in astonishing ways. Looking at the gold K-line chart now, the 2011 trend is very similar to the current one! The highs are successively lower, and the rebounds are getting weaker—a bullish exhaustion double top/multiple top structure! The subsequent trend is very likely to decline.
The first chart shows the historical market in 2011:
1. The peak labeled 1 is the ultimate top of that bull market at 1921; after that, the rebound highs labeled 2, 3, and 4 are progressively lower, with each rebound failing to surpass the previous high;
2. The bottoms of the rebounds also gradually move lower, and the moving average system slowly shifts from a bullish alignment to suppressing the price;
3. This is a typical bullish exhaustion and multiple top distribution structure at the end of a bull market, where each rebound serves as a window for bulls to exit and bears to position, eventually breaking down into a major bear market.
The second chart shows the current market cycle, with the marking logic fully replicated:
1. The peak labeled 1 is the peak of this bull market at 5598.75; the rebound highs labeled 2, 3, and 4 also progressively decline, with each rebound weaker than the last;
Similarly, after surging, each rebound fails to reach a new high, and the moving averages gradually shift from support to resistance, consistent with the rhythm and pattern seen after the 2011 peak.Conclusion first: $USDT accounts for 60% of the global stablecoin market, totaling 182.4 billion USD. On October 22, Senator Blumenthal gave Tether a deadline of November 3 to hand over contracts, payment, and lobbying records between Bo Hines and Nxum.
The investigation is not about money, but "who wrote GENIUS for Tether." WSJ's October 14 investigation revealed that a contract signed by Tether in May 2025 allowed Nxum to receive 6.3 million USD, with the first payment largely transferred into Nxum's wallet split into three parts. Hines served as Executive Director of the White House Digital Assets Advisory Committee and promoter of GENIUS; after leaving the White House, he became CEO of Tether's US operations and lobbied to extend the compliance period from 18 months to 36 months.
Tether says external lawyers conducted an in-depth investigation and found no wrongdoing; Nxum claims Hines did not receive any money during his tenure.
Prices remain unchanged: DefiLlama reports USDT at 0.9992, USDC-USDT on OKX at 1.00108, a discount of about 10 basis points, unchanged for three days.
November 3 is both the deadline for submitting materials and the midterm election day. What do you think—who wrote GENIUS for Tether, and should it affect the interest rate you get on USDT? #AI demand supports the storage market, chip stocks fluctuate
On one side, AI demand is bursting the threshold, on the other, chip stocks are on a roller coaster every day. This storage sector's script is really tough for those with weak hearts.🎢
This wave of market fluctuations looks like funds are dumping on the surface, but essentially it's a fierce battle between "long-term shortage" and "short-term cash shortage."
Let's peel back the K-line to see the bottom cards:
🧱 The foundation is solid: AI servers' appetite for HBM is bottomless, and the three major manufacturers' capacities are already fully booked. Spot goods are still hard to get, this is not bragging, but real orders.
💸 The market is faking a fall: with such strong fundamentals, why the drop? Because of macro interest rate pressure and tight liquidity. Plus, after a big rise earlier, big institutions are waiting for earnings reports to clear risks, and retail investors are getting shaken out in the volatility.
Simply put, it's like a prime location in a busy district where tenants line up to grab shops, but because the neighboring bank's interest is high, the landlord's shop valuation is forced to be discounted.
Don't keep staring anxiously at those little red and green numbers. This is the "road repair period," the AI gold rush is just beginning, and storage is the most stable "shovel-selling" business. Those who understand don't guess tomorrow's ups and downs, they only watch inventory cycles and long-term contract prices.📉
As long as AI pipelines keep widening and water is held inside, it will flow out sooner or later.🔧$SNDK Cloud growth rate rising from 48% to 63% and then to 82%, Google's money-printing machine is accelerating
Let's lay out the sequence: Google Cloud revenue growth was 48% in Q4 last year, 63% in Q1 this year, and 82% in Q2, reaching $24.8 billion, with operating profit of $8.8 billion and a profit margin of 35.6%, and about $514 billion in backlog. Among the big three, it is the smallest in scale but the fastest runner—Azure's latest growth is 43%, AWS is 37%. However, its stock price has only risen about 7% this year, underperforming the market. The market is calculating a different equation: the full-year capital expenditure guidance has been raised to about $200 billion, and free cash flow turned negative in Q2. The Q3 report is due after market close next Wednesday, coinciding with the FOMC decision day. The only question is: can the 82% growth continue, and can the money spent start flowing back? #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ $GOOGL $BTC [Pharaoh's Market Watch] My inbox exploded, everyone is asking Pharaoh: French government bond yields have hit 5%, a 24-year high. Will this bond market risk spill over to Bitcoin? Pharaoh says directly, this fire won't burn Bitcoin in the short term, but it will make Bitcoin shiver through the "risk appetite" hidden channel. First, let's see how bad it is in France. The 10-year French bond yield surged past 5% intraday, the first time since 2002. The France-Germany spread hit 157 basis poin#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
SanDisk released its earnings report after market close on October 29, with the company guiding revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion. AI data centers are driving demand for enterprise-grade SSDs, combined with rising NAND flash prices, which is expected to support performance and profit growth.
The growth risk lies in the fact that previous performance gains were largely driven by price increases, with limited contribution from shipments. If the pace of NAND price increases slows, profit elasticity will weaken; meanwhile, weak consumer demand and peer capacity expansion pose risks of price declines.
Key points to watch in the earnings report: the revenue share of the data center business, gross margin levels, and management's guidance on NAND prices and long-term contract orders. High growth is likely to continue, but whether it exceeds expectations depends on data center shipments and the realization of flash memory prices.Adjusted EPS of 0.64 exceeded expectations, yet it surged over 7% on Friday in one go. $SLB This rebound in oil services, I attribute more to the oil price boost.
Q3 adjusted EPS was 0.64, compared to the market estimate of about 0.62; revenue was about $9.45 billion, versus approximately $9.28 billion. Year-over-year growth was about +5.8%, quarter-over-quarter about +5%.
North America revenue was about $2.4 billion, strengthening quarter-over-quarter; Middle East and Asia rose about +9% quarter-over-quarter to around $2.81 billion. The company projects total Q4 revenue around $10 billion, up +5% to 7% quarter-over-quarter, with the Middle East expected to remain flat for now.
Honestly, the numbers beat estimates, but adjusted EPS year-over-year still dropped from about 0.69 to 0.64. On Friday, energy stocks surged along with oil prices, Brent crude hit a new high since April, and oil services followed the rally more on sentiment.
For now, I’m watching if it can hold around 50 to 51 on Monday, and only if it stabilizes above Friday’s high of about 53.45 will I reconsider; if the daily close breaks below the previous close of about 49.55, this earnings premium will ease.
Do you think it’s more likely to continue rallying at next week’s open, or will it first give back some gains?
$SLB
#MarketTalkToday Seeing a big player lose money, there's actually a strange sense of comfort in my heart... This guy held a long position on $SNDK stubbornly for a whole month, and finally couldn't hold on at dawn today, liquidating everything and running away. The average entry price was $1814, and the average exit price was $1247, cutting losses by 31.3%! Just from liquidating these last 5,000 shares, he lost $2.83 million in one go, with a total loss of $4.58 million, equivalent to over 30 million RMB. That's$BTC In the Middle East conflict, the so-called "safe-haven asset" gold, which should have risen according to textbooks, actually fell 4.1% this week, dropping below $4,000, marking the largest weekly decline since June.
This week's report card (as of Friday's close):
🛢 Brent crude +6.2%, $116.72, a six-month high
🟠 BTC about +0.4%, basically flat
🥇 Gold -4.1%, $3,991
Gold falling during wartime is because the market is trading not "safe-haven," but "oil price rise → inflation returns → interest rates can't be lowered." Neither gold nor BTC yield interest, so the higher the rates, the worse it is for them.
This week BTC held up better than gold, but don't rush to call it "digital gold": they face the same headwind, it's just that this time BTC wasn't knocked down. Before the Fed meeting next week, oil prices are more important than any crypto news.
During wartime, the first to rise is not the safe-haven asset, but oil.
Not investment advice｜Crude oil/gold: Reuters, Dow Jones#Middle East crude supply risks rise again, oil prices continue to strengthen Don't just focus on the Ethereum upgrade for $ETH; the current ETH situation depends on the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's stance.
In the past couple of days, news shows that the US-Iran conflict has intensified again. Meanwhile, tech stocks in the US market are being sold off due to AI-related cash burn concerns, causing market sentiment to tighten. Naturally, risk assets like ETH are also feeling the pressure. Currently, there are basically two core factors affecting ETH.
First factor: War drives up oil prices, which in turn pushes inflation higher, ultimately forcing the Federal Reserve to avoid cutting interest rates.
People originally thought that during a war, funds would flow into Bitcoin and gold as safe havens. But this time the script has changed—the escalation of the US-Iran conflict has made the market most worried about a surge in oil prices. Brent crude oil once surged above $110. When oil prices rise, global inflation pressure follows. If inflation can't be controlled, the Federal Reserve won't easily cut rates, keeping interest rates high. High interest rates make risk assets like ETH, which do not generate interest, less attractive, so funds naturally withdraw. $BTC
So in recent days, you can see not only ETH falling but also US tech stocks dropping; everyone is in the same boat.
Second factor:
ETH has a characteristic: it rises sharply when market sentiment is good, but when macroeconomic headwinds hit, it often falls even harder than Bitcoin. Currently, ETH is trading around $2380, technically having broken below the $2400 level. Additionally, Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net outflows recently, with institutional funds withdrawing, creating significant short-term selling pressure. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Meta’s AI bet is also a bet on flexibility. Bloomberg reported on Oct 22 that Meta had about $825B in future lease and contract commitments, up from nearly $700B disclosed in July. The figure brings a question to the AI trade: how much room does Meta retain if demand, technology or financing conditions change? The commitments include: · $355.7B in operating and finance leases not yet included on the balance sheet · $454.5B in noncancelable short- and long-term contracts · Up to $14.7B in cloud c