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Multiple banks in the United States are restricting AI agents' access to customer accounts, indicating that automated trading and risk control are tightening. This makes the volatility transmission of leveraged semiconductor targets more sensitive. I judge the short-term outlook as bearish but with support on the downside. Market contradictions are obvious: both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are in a downtrend, with the 4-hour chart having retraced 47.52% from the high, yet the price has only rebounded 4.07% from the low, currently at 84.07, down 1.6%, with a volume of 4.868 million. The buy-sell ratio of the top 10 levels is 0.67, showing selling pressure dominance, but the funding rate is as high as 0.0816%, with open interest at 652,000. Bulls are still paying to hold positions, and sentiment has not cleared. Strategically, a light short position can be tried on a rebound to 85.63, with a stop loss at 86.94 and a target of 81.37; if it pulls back to 81.09 and stabilizes, a short-term long can be taken, with a stop loss at 80.21 and a target of 84.55. Single position size should not exceed 20%, and exit immediately if stop loss is hit.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SOXL#GENIUS Act details released, stablecoin reward restrictions adjusted
#Multiple US banks restrict AI Agent access to customer accounts
$SOXL Oil prices have already reached 117, rising 90% this year, but the real trigger point may not be now, but after the midterm elections on November 3rd.
The logic is straightforward: no action before the election is a political necessity, and after the election, the constraints are gone. Current polls show the ruling party has a 92% chance of losing the House of Representatives, with approval ratings dropping to 31%. Once the president becomes lame-duck, shifting conflicts externally is the easiest path.
If real action is taken, where will oil prices go? Institutions generally expect above 120, with the first stage of conflict reaching 125 to 130. Once the Strait of Hormuz is blocked and global diesel inventories remain low, prices above 130 are not just talk.
What about Bitcoin? With inflation expectations rising and rate cut expectations dashed, US Treasury yields are pushed up, and non-yielding assets get hit first. The current 80K defense battle may just be an appetizer.
Whether your position can hold or not, you need to think it through first. $BTCWhat is the most profitable business in the crypto circle?
Top 5 by fees today:
1. $PUMP 24-hour fees 5.78 million, revenue 1.94 million, retention 34%
2. Aethir 24-hour fees 3.75 million, revenue 750,000, retention 20%
3. $HYPE 24-hour fees 3.64 million, revenue 2.78 million, retention 76%
4. Polymarket 24-hour fees 2.88 million, revenue 520,000, retention 18%
5. $UNI 24-hour fees 1.77 million, revenue 160,000, retention 9%
Aethir (ATH) appears on the list for the first time, a DePIN providing AI and gaming GPU computing power. 24-hour fees are 3.75 million.
PUMP has been dominating the list recently, but its buyback and burn is not as strong as HYPE's. UNI distributes most of its revenue to LPs, so its revenue is very low, with the weakest buyback and burn ratio.#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings $OKB
OKX and ICE's US stock tokenization plans now have 22 publicly listed companies explicitly opposing them, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Goldman Sachs, Broadcom, Qualcomm, and McDonald's.
The SEC's Innovation Exemption provides a waiver channel but includes a key restriction: before tokenization, the listed company must be notified and given a 30-day objection period. If they object, the exemption cannot be applied.
My judgment is that the compliance route is destined to be slow—each objection is a real setback in progress. On the contrary, those exchanges that boarded first and settled later have taken advantage of the window period to build volume. In the long term, tokenization is the trend, but in the short term, whoever complies first suffers first—ironic but true.Core Trader 14 just opened a new $ZRO long position, holding 21,000 ZRO, with a nominal value of about $35,876, reference price 1.7084, and 5x leverage. When I see this kind of position opening, my first reaction isn’t a “bullish signal,” but curiosity: is he expressing a judgment, or betting on his ability to withstand volatility?
I prefer to view this trade as a risk management test. With 5x leverage, a roughly 20% adverse move could make margin pressure quite apparent; but this is just a rough estimate, as the actual liquidation distance will also depend on margin and position settings. The position size looks eye-catching, but it doesn’t tell us about his stop loss, holding period, or plan.
When watching, it’s easy to get carried away by the big number “$35,876” and then use confirmation bias to justify it: thinking that because a whale is going long, you must be right. But on-chain data only shows actions, not hesitation, nor the risk boundaries behind them. Traders may have their own rhythm, but spectators often misread a moment as the answer. 😶
I also remind myself not to take others’ positions as my own basis just because I want certainty. When you see this, what is your first emotional reaction: curiosity, excitement, or concern about leverage risk?黄金单日暴跌2.91%，现货跌破4,000美元。而BTC只跌了0.29%。避险叙事崩了吗？ 先说新闻。今天的数字：黄金期货4,029.4美元（日内-2.91%），现货3,995.30——跌破4,000整数位。同期BTC报81,441.4美元（24小时-0.29%、近一周+0.11%）；美股标普500跌0.64%到7,663.43；美元指数101.60（-0.01%）；恐惧贪婪指数从68跌到50。资金侧：BTC ETF连续第六天净流入（+2,950万），5日+2.061亿、10日+3,520万。 再看资金影响。黄金暴跌的原因，通常有三种：一是获利了结（前期涨幅过大）；二是实际利率上行；三是多头拥挤度太高。今天美元平稳、美股下跌，说明不是利率驱动，更像是"拥挤交易解除"——当所有人都持有同一个方向时，任何风吹草动都会引发踩踏。这也解释了为什么跌幅这么集中。 对BTC的含义：黄金暴跌对BTC是双刃剑。好的一面是：避险资金的替代选择变少，BTC的相对强度凸显；坏的一面是：如果黄金暴跌引发全市场去杠杆，BTC也会被波及。今天BTC只跌0.29%，说明它暂时扛住了，但还需要观察明天。 我接下来盯四I don't touch high-leverage contracts, and short-term guessing on price ups and downs isn't really suitable for me either. Seeing how lively the prediction market is, Old Chen still prefers to ask first: Is this noise or a signal for long-term value?
According to Bloomberg, data from Dune Analytics shows that the nominal trading volume of cryptocurrency-related event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $2.7 billion last week, setting a new record. Bitcoin short-term price fluctuation contracts are especially active, and cryptocurrencies have become the second largest trading category on both platforms, just behind sports.
My judgment is: this is a signal of trading demand, but not enough proof of $BTC's long-term value. Nominal trading volume cannot be directly taken as new spot funds, nor should it be casually interpreted as an increase in long-term buying. Prices are stuck in a range-bound oscillation while short-term contracts are active; I think this more clearly indicates that the market still has strong interest in short-term speculation.
Looking further ahead, I am more concerned whether this heat can settle into sustained usage, rather than just revolving around the next price move. If the heat always depends on short-term guessing, then for me, it still leans more toward price noise. Anyway, I hold and watch slowly.
Also, a gentle reminder: don't treat short-term bets as stable income, especially when using leverage, leave some room. For friends holding long-term, will you see this $2.7 billion as a signal of expanded adoption, or just short-term funds moving to a new place to speculate?Just put the baby to sleep and picked up my phone to see this post; the water in my cup has gone cold. Bitcoin is still fluctuating within the range, but the contracts predicting its short-term ups and downs have become lively. 🍼
According to Bloomberg, data from Dune Analytics shows that the nominal trading volume of cryptocurrency-related event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $2.7 billion last week, setting a new record. Short-term Bitcoin price movement contracts are especially active, and cryptocurrencies have become the second largest trading category on these two platforms, second only to sports.
My judgment is: this looks more like a surge in short-term participation enthusiasm and should not be directly taken as positive news for $BTC prices. Nominal trading volume does not equal new funds; both bullish and bearish bets contribute to volume, so direction cannot be inferred from this. The hotter the short-term contracts get, the more attention it demands from people like me who can only check the market occasionally.
If I were a small investor like this, I would first want to understand the rules, fees, and the maximum loss I can bear before considering whether I have the energy to study it. When grocery shopping, visiting a couple of stores to compare prices is possible, but frequently checking the market doesn’t necessarily save money. Living expenses and emergency funds must be kept stable first. The speed I developed from putting the baby to sleep isn’t suitable for chasing market trends either. ☕
For friends who also have kids or work, when encountering this short-term prediction contract craze, would you limit your daily market checking time or just turn off notifications to reserve time for family and rest?October's flash PMI complicates the apparent case for a Fed pause. A 57.6 composite reading points to resilient activity, while selling prices rose at their fastest pace since August 2022. That pairing gives policymakers little room to sound complacent about inflation.
Rates may still stay unchanged, but the guidance could matter more: December remains a live question, not a conclusion.
#WillFedPauseInOctober Brothers, ZEC has dropped to 1166, but ETFs and mining companies are quietly exchanging hands underneath
$ZEC $1,166
ZEC has retraced from the high of 1698 at the end of September to around 1166, a drop of about 31%. The price is falling, but the underlying capital flow is shifting.
ETF has had net inflows for four consecutive days. Grayscale ZCSH recorded a net inflow of $20.52 million on October 23, with the historical cumulative net inflow rising to $204 million and total assets under management at $707 million. This is the first time since the redemption wave in early October that the ETF channel has had consecutive days of recovery.
The concentration issue at the mining company level has surfaced. Bloomberg revealed that Cypherpunk and Fortitude each account for about 20% of Zcash's total network hashrate. Both are planning to invest tens of millions of dollars to expand hashrate, and Winklevoss has already submitted a Zcash ETF application this month. Hashrate and ETF applications are piling up in the same direction, and the chip structure is shifting from dispersed to concentrated.
The NU7 date is completely locked in. Block height 3,543,405 is expected to activate on November 5, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. ZEC in the old Sprout pool will be unusable after the upgrade, and holders have less than two weeks to transfer.
Technically, 1150 is short-term support, and 1100 is a psychological barrier.
Let's discuss in the comments, with ETFs buying for four consecutive days, can ZEC stop this drop?👇
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Brothers, SNDK has dropped to 1242, a 46% retracement, but the real issue isn't Chinese competition
$SNDK $1,242
SNDK closed sharply down 8.51% to 1260.93 on Thursday, with an intraday low of 1244.60. Your quoted 1242 is basically the closing and after-hours low range. From the June peak of 2354, the retracement is nearly 47%.
The surface reason for the sell-off is Yangtze Memory and Chinese production capacity. GF Securities expects NAND's quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4 to slow to low single digits, and the market worries that the storage price hike cycle will be cut short by Chinese supply. But one detail is overlooked: data centers now account for about half of NAND demand, up from around 30% last year, and enterprise SSD prices are still rising in Q4.
The real risk lies in SNDK's own structure. It only makes NAND, unlike Micron which has both DRAM and HBM to diversify. Some analysts bluntly say: if NAND prices fall, SNDK's revenue and profits will sink along with it. Long-term contracts can buffer but cannot eliminate cyclical risk. The forward PE is only 5.76, the market is already pricing in “next year's earnings are unsustainable.”
The Q1 earnings report on October 29 is the last card. Wall Street expects EPS of $46.21 and revenue of $10.65 billion. Whether the gross margin can hold the 83%-85% guidance is more critical than any narrative about Chinese competition.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Brothers, BTC and ETH have been dragged down again by the mess in the Middle East. BTC lost the 81,000 level, ETH stuck at 2,380
$BTC $80,850 |$ETH $2,380
Bitcoin slid from above 82,000 to 80,850, while Ethereum struggles around 2,380. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $498 million, with longs accounting for $340 million. BTC longs liquidated $81.33 million, ETH longs $50.55 million.
The culprit behind the dump is still the Middle East. Trump hinted at possibly launching a "small-scale epic fury" operation against Iran, sharply increasing shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged to a 7-month high. BTC order book buy/sell ratio is only 0.15, with sell-side depth concentrated at 80,631. The shallow order book has amplified short-term selling pressure.
But on the ETF side, there is a counterintuitive data point. Bitcoin spot ETFs have had net inflows totaling 1.08 billion over 3 consecutive days, and in October, net flows turned from outflows to inflows totaling 461 million. Then on the 22nd, there was an outflow of 635 million, with BlackRock's IBIT losing 254 million. Funds are fluctuating repeatedly, indicating institutional hesitation.
On the ETH side, there is a detail in the order book: Coinbase spot buy orders are 13.72 million, exceeding sell orders by 3.48 million. The near-term buy orders are thicker, indicating someone is buying around 2,380. ETH ETF had a single-day outflow of 111 million, with BlackRock's ETHA losing 75.45 million.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $IRYS｜A textbook-level short position hunting 📉
While the market is clearing chips, the top gainers list hides the clearest harvesting script by the whales.
A single candle surged nearly 18 times; this is not driven by positive news but a standard bottom chip accumulation plus targeted liquidation hunting.
First, look at the core data on the liquidation panel: total liquidations in 24 hours reached $67.67 million, with short liquidations close to $58.95 million, accounting for over 87%. The market status is marked as 【Mainly Short Liquidations】. The largest single short liquidation was $4.31 million, and the liquidation volume is 6.73 times the 7-day average, an extreme level.
This means after the whales accumulated enough chips at the bottom, they directly used a pump to clear out all the ambushed short positions as a sacrifice.
Compared to ALPHA in the same sector, whose gains are far less fierce than IRYS, it clearly shows this round is not a sector-wide resonance but an independent manipulation by the project team.
Many people mistake this as a signal for the start of a copycat season, which is the biggest misunderstanding.
This kind of purely contract-driven pump has already prepared selling pressure above; now the main force has entered the turnover and cash-out phase.
In the short term, only sentiment supports the price; technically, there is no solid foundation.
The pattern of sentiment coins is always consistent: the pump is to clear opposing positions, and after turnover is complete, it’s free fall.
Small coins hype themselves; chasing highs is strictly prohibited.
Key question for everyone to ponder:
When the vast majority of liquidations are shorts, is the pump a trend start or the whales’ exit prelude?Gold $XAU does not need to wait for the Federal Reserve to actually cut interest rates to rebound. As long as the market begins to believe that the rate hike cycle is about to end, gold prices may reverse ahead. The second phase has already appeared, and the third phase may be starting.
Next, three key signals need to be closely observed:
① Probability of a Fed rate hike in December: This indicator has dropped from about 90% to 78% within three days. If it falls below 50%, it means the market believes the Fed has ended rate hikes.
② Two-year US Treasury yield: The current yield is about 4.69%, well below the CPI-adjusted high of 4.95%. If it continues to decline, it may indicate that a turning point is near.
③ Initial jobless claims: This data is currently still close to 200,000. If it continues to rise to 250,000, the Fed's stance will change. The real insight from the Grayscale rankings: crypto assets should be valued based on net cash flow, not narrative or market cap valuation
As of October 24, 2026, it can be cross-verified that Grayscale released research on October 21, which was publicly reshared by the head of the research institution on October 22; media reports show high consistency in the names, rankings, and percentages of the two lists, but this study could not independently obtain the original Grayscale report PDF or official attachments, so media secondary reports cannot be regarded as officially verified primary documents. The core question raised by the rankings is: can protocols generate sustainable net cash flow by deducting real income such as fees, lending spreads, and liquidation fees from the costs paid to liquidity providers, lenders, and incentive recipients; and can these cash flows be distributed to token holders through buybacks, burns, fee allocations, or staking rewards without being offset by new issuance. The reported data shows that HYPE and LIT token holders have yields of 8.0% and 7.9%, respectively, while CAKE, AERO, and UNI have 2.6%, 0.9%, and 0.8%; RAY and AAVE have -0.5% and -1.0%, indicating that "protocols making money" and "token holders making money" are two different conclusions. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ $AERO $UNI $AAVE Futures trading volume is 9 times that of spot, leverage amplifies a single data shock into a massacre
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out a key structure after the liquidation event: the trading volume of crypto futures is currently about 9 times that of spot.
Think about what this means.
When an event like the CPI triggers, leveraged long positions are forced to liquidate. Forced liquidation sell orders push prices down, price drops trigger more long liquidations, and more liquidations generate more selling. In a market where futures volume is 9 times that of spot, this chain reaction is amplified exponentially by leverage.
The liquidation heatmap data on Gate Square also confirms this: ETH "almost swept all the liquidity below, the 4-hour K dropped directly from $2527 to $2358, without even a decent rebound, completely targeting long positions."
2352 is not a "verified support level." 2352 is the "fault line where the long stop-loss line and the liquidation engine intersect." That giant whale long order of 4890 ETH was liquidated at 2356, precisely indicating that around this position, there is a massive death line of leveraged longs. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Both are falling, but market sentiment is completely different. BTC is in panic, ETH is going crazy.
Bitcoin's bullish sentiment has dropped to 0.82, entering the extreme fear zone. Meanwhile, Ethereum's bullish sentiment is as high as 2.05, directly entering FOMO mode.
One is in the ICU, the other is in the KTV.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 498 million, with long positions liquidated at 340 million. Bitcoin long liquidations were 81.33 million, Ethereum long liquidations were 50.55 million. Bulls got bloodied, but the mentality on both sides is completely different.
Those holding $BTC are numb, too lazy to even curse.
Those holding $ETH are still fantasizing about ETH hitting 3000, still shouting "hold on" in the groups.
Why is it split like this?
Because BTC is now traded as a "macro asset" — the Fed isn't cutting rates, ETFs are flowing out, and no one sees hope. ETH is treated as a "narrative asset," with staking, ETFs, Layer 2 solutions, and everyone feels "this time is different."
But the market punishes all disbelief. BTC's fear and ETH's greed, one side is always wrong.
Take sides in the comments:
Type 1: ETH will catch up, BTC is the real bottom.
Type 2: BTC will rally, ETH is the pioneer.
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ AI investment has already achieved phased profitability realization in Google Cloud (revenue, profit margin, and backlog are all strong), but capital expenditure pressure has increased, and free cash flow is temporarily under pressure. The return is "profit realized first on the income statement, cash flow return lags," still in a heavy investment cycle, not a steady-state return Strong Oil, Weak Crypto: Same Risk, Two Prices
The Middle East situation has reignited crude oil. Brent surged intraday to $117.45, closing at $116.72, with a monthly increase of over 10%; WTI surpassed $103. A tanker in the Strait of Hormuz hit a mine, involving more than 4.5 million barrels of crude, combined with expectations of escalating US-Iran conflict, causing a rapid revaluation of geopolitical premiums.
But the crypto market did not rally in sync. BTC weakly oscillated around $81,000, with $80,000 serving as both institutional cost support and a cluster zone for about $3.57 billion in longs; selling pressure above $85,000 remains heavy. ETH tugged around $2,400, with $2,330 as a short-term watershed and $2,500 as the threshold to restore confidence.
This is not a simple "risk appetite rebound," but a structural split: rising oil prices reinforce the "higher for longer" inflation narrative, which in turn compresses the valuation space for risk assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum have not yet collapsed, but repeatedly testing support is itself a cautious market vote. Holding on is just a breather; breaking down is when the real pressure begins.
$BTC $ETH $BZ
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 The Binance long-short ratio for $BTC has surged above 2, showing that bullish positions are heavily outweighing bearish ones. The market is entering a tense phase. Many retail traders are still trying to catch the bottom, while larger players may be reducing exposure near current levels. Meanwhile, Coinbase's negative spot premium suggests that US-based spot buying demand remains weak. If fresh demand fails to emerge, the market could struggle to sustain a recovery, leaving late buyers vulneraIn the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $498 million.
Long positions liquidated $340 million, while short positions only $158 million.
The market has already cast its vote with real money. 90% of liquidations are longs. This number is not an opinion, it's a bill.
You think you're trading BTC. You're actually trading a tweet from Trump.
On October 23, Trump personally said: there might be another small-scale "epic fury" operation. He also added—whether it happens or not is uncertain.
Meanwhile, the US and Israeli militaries have already drafted specific plans to strike Iran again after the midterm elections.
Your long positions are essentially betting on two things: Trump not approving, or Iran not escalating.
Neither of these variables is in your trading terminal, nor in your technical indicators.
The trend lines you draw can't control oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
Now look at the order book. This is the most painful part.
BTC is currently around 81,000. Glassnode says the range is 80,000 to 87,000, with ETF and treasury cost support near 80,000, but the scale is smaller than the peak.
Sounds like 80,000 is a bottom, right?
At the same time, order book data shows: the buy-to-sell ratio is only 0.15, with 90.5% of sell-side depth concentrated at one price level, and the shallow order book is amplifying every attack.
To translate: the buy side is as thin as paper, the sell side is piled like a wall. One piece of news hits, and the price doesn’t "pull back," it gets directly swept through.
Below 80,000, the 77,000 to 81,000 range is stacked with massive liquidation liquidity, which could become the next target to be swept at any time.
The Federal Reserve decision on October 28 is just ahead.
The market only gives a 10% to 30% chance of a rate hike, but economists say this pricing is seriously underestimated. Oil prices remain high, inflation is not dead.
You’re betting on the Fed on the left, the Middle East on the right, and in the middle is a shallow order book that could be swept through by a single candlestick at any time.
This is not trading. This is standing on ice guessing which step won’t crack.
Here are three non-directional suggestions you can use even if you don’t understand direction:
First, reduce leverage. With current volatility, even 3x is too heavy. In a shallow order book environment, stop-loss orders and liquidation orders are no different.
Second, shorten holding periods. Don’t use a "weekly-level bottom" mindset to catch a move driven by "hourly-level news." Geopolitical pricing is measured in hours; your position shouldn’t be held in weeks.
Third, don’t touch the left side. Wait for the news to land, wait for the order book to rebuild depth, wait for liquidity to return. Earning less for a while is a hundred times better than betting wrong once.
Before peaceful news lands, 81,000 is not support; it’s the thinnest layer of ice in liquidity.
$BTC $XAU $BZ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 The market is clearing out chips, but the top gainers list is quite interesting $IRYS !!!
It's really like a golden dog appearing, a single candle rising 1000%. First, let me say I didn't get in on it, this is pure analysis without hindsight!!
Definitely bottom-building and market-making for market cap, the project team is accumulating at the bottom and then pumping to sell off. All short positions in the market are doomed to be sacrificed. I checked ALPHA's price and it hasn't been pumped by contracts. If you didn't know, you'd think it's a monopoly knockoff season. Small coins hype themselves, so don't chase the rally. The upside is clearly pushing back now. In the short term, you can talk about sentiment, but from a technical perspective, we need to see if the current price can hold and continue to rise. It's best to avoid emotional coins and just watch for now.On October 21, an unconfirmed rumor exploded in the market: the US and Iran might reach a peace agreement.
What was Bitcoin's reaction? In less than an hour, it surged straight from 81K to 84K. Brent crude oil simultaneously plunged, with intraday losses exceeding 3% at one point.
Then the official denial came. Prices reverted to their original levels.
But in that short hour, the market's bottom cards were already revealed.
Look at another set of data, even harsher than that one hour.
In the past six months, "peace signals" between the US and Iran appeared nine times—rumors of agreements, the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, progress in negotiations.
On those nine days, Bitcoin closed higher eight times, with an average gain of 1.74%.
The only time a pure "escalation signal" appeared, Bitcoin fell 3.08% that day.
The market is telling you in the most honest way: what it wants is never what you imagine.
The phrase "war as a safe haven" is the most expensive bitter pill in this cycle.
On October 22, it was reported that the US and Israel planned to strike Iran again after the midterm elections. According to the old script, you should buy gold and BTC as safe havens, right?
The reality: gold and Bitcoin fell hand in hand. Bitcoin crashed from 84.8K down below 81K, marking the largest drop in two weeks. Over 90% of liquidated positions in the past 24 hours were longs. One hundred thousand people, over 400 million dollars, wiped out in one sweep.
Those waiting for "war to be good for BTC" didn’t get a safe-haven buying spree; they got their positions burned as fuel.
Why? Because the transmission chain was reversed from start to finish.
War expectations push up not gold prices, but oil prices. Brent briefly broke $111.
Every notch oil prices rise, inflation expectations rise accordingly. Inflation won’t come down, so the Federal Reserve has no reason to ease. With interest rates suppressing, all high-beta risk assets—including Bitcoin—are held underwater.
In this pricing framework, BTC is not "digital gold." It’s in the same boat as the Nasdaq, moving faster than anyone else.
When war becomes an aid to rate hikes, war bulls become hostages in geopolitical games.
Conversely, why can peace rumors make BTC erupt instantly?
The logic couldn’t be simpler:
Peace expectations → oil price falls → inflation pressure eases → imagination space for interest rates peaking opens → risk assets catch a breather.
One false rumor, eight out of nine times closing higher. The market isn’t trading the word "peace." It’s trading the possibility that the interest rate shackles loosen.
Bitcoin is now about 35% below its historical high; the core variables pressing it are interest rates and liquidity, not any news from Tehran. War is just the noise that keeps pushing oil prices up.
You watch every explosion in the Middle East, waiting for "safe-haven funds to pour in" to lift your positions.
But the data has already slapped the answer in your face: escalation news makes you lose money; peace rumors make you profit.
The direction you’re waiting for and your position’s direction have been opposite from the start.
Peace is the cheapest catalyst for BTC in this cycle.
It doesn’t need to actually happen. One rumor is enough. The market can rally 3K on a fake news item instantly deleted by officials—you can imagine what would happen if oil prices systematically fell due to easing tensions, and the interest rate nail pressing down on all risk assets loosened.
Stop waiting for war. War has never saved your positions; it only buries them.
$BTC $CL $BZ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $SNDK is still looking for opportunities to short US stocks; short-term rebounds don't change much.
The crazier AI burns money, the more dangerous the US stock market becomes! Funds are quietly withdrawing.
The biggest hidden risk in the market now is not that AI has no prospects, but that more and more money is being invested, and whether it can be earned back in the future has become a problem.
On October 24, the Nasdaq 100 index recorded its worst two-week performance since April 2025, with AI-related stocks down 4.9% this week, and Meta falling more than 9% in a single week. Meanwhile, funds are accelerating into US Treasuries, with bond ETFs inflowing about $58 billion this month, showing a clear rise in defensive sentiment.
Here's the problem: AI giants are frantically spending to expand computing power, the US government is continuously issuing debt, and everyone is competing for limited capital. Financing demand is growing; once the market starts doubting investment returns, high-valuation tech stocks may face repricing.
What’s even more worrisome is that corporate credit risk is also rising, and companies with weaker financing capabilities may be the first to come under pressure.
What does this mean for the market?
In the short term, be wary of continued pullbacks in tech stocks and risk sentiment spreading to the crypto market. Especially when US stock funds start to defend, risk assets like BTC and ETH may also be dragged down.
Next, focus on whether US tech stocks can stabilize, how bond yields change, and whether credit risk continues to expand Today's liquidation data review: Both longs and shorts hit hard, beware of trap coins
1. Mainstream coins crush longs: BTC and ETH long liquidations far exceed shorts (BTC longs liquidated 80.83 million), the market is in a slow downtrend washout phase, chasing the rally is very risky.
2. IRYS extreme anomaly: short liquidations reached 57.88 million, 7 times the long liquidations. This is a typical "painted door" trap coin scenario—first a violent pump to liquidate shorts, then a slow downtrend to trap longs.
3. Operation warning: The current market is in a "structural harvesting" phase. Friends holding IRYS and other trap coins, do not be misled by short liquidation data to blindly go long. Beware of a second dump after the main force lures longs. It is recommended to reduce positions on rallies and strictly control risk. $BTC $ETH $IRYS The input of this information is very clear: According to Bloomberg, the nominal trading volume of cryptocurrency-related event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $2.7 billion last week, setting a record high. Bitcoin short-term fluctuation contracts were the most active, and cryptocurrencies became the second largest trading category on the two platforms, second only to sports.
My judgment is: this is a strong signal of the prediction market's heat, but it cannot yet be directly regarded as a positive for the crypto market. Bitcoin is currently in a range-bound oscillation, with no clear direction in the spot market, so users are more likely to focus on short feedback games like "will it go up or down in a few hours."
There are several potential bugs here: First, the $2.7 billion is nominal trading volume, which does not equal real capital inflow, nor does it represent overall participant profitability; second, the activity in short-term contracts may indicate rising speculative sentiment or simply the market seeking stimulation during a sideways period; third, the larger the trading volume, the easier it is for ordinary users to overlook contract rules, settlement times, and probability pricing, ultimately turning the prediction market into a guessing game.
If I were a product manager, I would separate the statistics of "record trading volume" from "long-term user retention, prediction accuracy, and risk education completion" to avoid a flashy number misleading the judgment logic. 💻 Everyone, please help review my view: does the $2.7 billion really represent industry maturity, or is it just an amplifier of sentiment in a choppy market? Point out any flaws.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK Hynix's Q3 earnings report (expected to be released on October 28) is approaching, and HBM4 has become a substantial contributor to profits starting this quarter. However, its profit margin is influenced by the complex interplay of product mix and cost factors, and is not simply a story of "rising volume and price".
HBM4's profit contribution: Q3 marks the start of "full reflection"
Multiple Korean media outlets and brokerage firms unanimously confirm that Q3 is the first quarter where HBM4 sales are "fully reflected" (substantially realized), with the core driver being NVIDIA's next-generation AI platform "Vera Rubin" ramping up HBM4 orders starting in Q3. SK Hynix began mass production and shipment of HBM4 as early as Q2, entering a scale ramp-up phase in Q3.
NH Investment & Securities predicts that DRAM business including HBM will account for 77.6% of SK Hynix's Q3 revenue and 80.4% of operating profit, with HBM4 being the core incremental source in this structure.
Apparent profit margins are extremely attractive. Market consensus on SK Hynix's overall Q3 operating margin is about 78%, with some brokerages even expecting up to 80%. HBM4's pricing itself is also at a high level: SK Hynix's initial price for HBM4 supplied to NVIDIA is about $500 per unit, showing a significant premium over HBM3E; after negotiations with NVIDIA, the HBM4 contract price increased by more than 50%, with Q1 contract prices once rising about 100%.When oil prices rise, the most easily confused are risk expectations and actual supply losses that have already occurred.
News such as the evacuation of Saudi Aramco headquarters does make the market nervous, but personnel evacuation, facility threats, and actual production declines correspond to different levels of impact. You can't just see a safety measure and casually calculate how many barrels of oil the world has lost.
I think the difficulty in trading oil prices now is precisely because the market must price in risks in advance, while the real-world impact takes time to confirm.
If you wait until supply losses are fully verified to react, prices may have already moved; but if you calculate all threats as the worst-case scenario, once the situation eases, the premium is easily given back.
So this time I want to distinguish two things: the actual affected links and how long recovery takes. Short-term interruptions and long-term damage have very different implications for supply.
Also, high oil prices do not benefit all energy-related companies equally. The pressures of procurement, transportation, and cash flow also fall on other companies in the industry chain.
I remain vigilant about supply risks but do not want to make judgments chasing the scariest headlines. The more frequent the news, the more you have to resist the urge to turn "possible" into "already happened." Otherwise, if you chase the worst-case scenario today and get tossed around by a clarification tomorrow, it’s exhausting.
#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Storage manufacturers making more and more money doesn't necessarily mean that phones and computers are suddenly selling much better.
Looking back at Micron's previous earnings materials, there's a very specific phenomenon: revenue growth in mobile and client businesses is mainly driven by price increases, while shipment volume decline actually offset some of the growth.
This detail quite well explains the current market situation. Strong AI demand not only increases data center orders but also affects how manufacturers allocate capacity. After some supply shifts toward high-value businesses, other markets, even with average demand, may face higher purchasing prices.
So my view on storage stocks doesn't simply stop at whether "AI is hot or not." It also depends on whether revenue growth relies on volume or price.
Profit improvement from price increases can happen quickly but also raises customer costs. Customers might reduce purchases, adjust product configurations, or look for other suppliers. A nice price increase doesn't mean demand will never be affected.
I'm still interested in this market cycle but don't want to directly apply current profit margins to several years later. Especially when stock prices already include high expectations, even a slight slowdown in price growth can cause noticeable volatility.
The most exciting thing about the storage business is that when good times come, reports improve particularly fast. I hope the next earnings report will show that beyond price, real shipments and product mix also support growth.
#AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 The most uncomfortable aspect of this PMI is that economic growth has slowed slightly, but companies are raising prices even faster.
The preliminary US PMI for October shows that business activity is still expanding, but the increase in sales prices for goods and services has reached the fastest pace since August 2022. For those waiting for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes, this combination is really unfriendly.
Slower growth might have provided a reason to pause rate hikes; but if companies can continue to raise prices, the Fed will find it hard to be at ease. Especially after costs rise, whether companies choose to absorb them or pass them on to customers has completely different implications for future inflation.
What worries me more now is that the market is overly focused on whether the economy is cooling down, while underestimating the possibility that price pressures will continue to transmit.
This will also affect stock assessments. Companies that can raise prices may have profit support; those lacking bargaining power will suffer more when costs rise. The same economic data can lead to very different results in different companies' financial reports.
For BTC, expectations of a pause in rate hikes remain, but the policy space afterward may not necessarily widen because of this. Don’t jump to schedule rate cuts just because growth indicators have fallen a bit.
Before next week’s meeting, I will pay more attention to the price components. It’s certainly better for the economy to hold up than to suddenly contract; but if prices stubbornly refuse to come down, the easy days the market is hoping for may still be a while away.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $ETH Review: After a false breakout, is the rebound more like a shorting opportunity?📉
On 10.21, $ETH surged to 2500, peaking at 2514.49, seemingly breaking out; but on 10.22, it was swallowed back by a long bearish candle, dropping 4.52% with increased volume, confirming selling pressure. The current price is below multiple moving averages, RSI at 38.9, weak but not oversold. ETH/BTC continues to weaken, with a 30-day decline greater than BTC, still being led by US stocks 😕.
Unfavorable macro environment: CPI exceeding expectations cools rate cut expectations, US Treasury yields rise, oil prices and Middle East disturbances persist. Spot ETFs mainly saw net outflows this month, with limited inflows on the 22nd; staking yields have a negative spread against US Treasuries, motivating institutions to reduce holdings. New highs in locked positions are a slow variable, short-term support is weak; BitMine buy orders may expire by the end of November, which is easily overlooked ⚠️.
Derivatives show contrast: 24h active buy orders at 51.8%, OI +2.2%, seemingly supported; but the long-short account ratio rose from 1.69 to 2.98, more like retail chasing longs after a breakout. Buy orders in the last 6h dropped to 47.5%, weakening support, no short squeeze conditions yet 🧐.
Strategy: Short in the 2415-2455 resistance zone on the rebound, stop loss at 2492, unconditional bullish if 4H closes above 2527; targets at 2358/2315/2245. Secondary option: short on 4H break below 2355 followed by a pullback, with half position size.🔥#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #Tesla Q3 automotive gross margin rebounds, free cash flow turns positive #三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓
Operating profit of 107.4 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of +782.5%, surpassing 100 trillion KRW in a single quarter for the first time; revenue of 195 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of +126.6%, operating profit margin at 55.1%.
Profit scale exceeds the historical single-quarter peaks of Nvidia and Apple.
Three points to watch in the full financial report on October 29:
1. Actual proportion of HBM4 and HBM profit margin: meeting the proportion target and expanding profit margin indicate a shift in profitability from "quantity" to "quality."
2. 2027 supply and demand outlook and Long-Term Agreement (LTA) coverage ratio: determines the market's pricing of the cycle length.
3. Composition of the narrowing foundry losses: whether it is due to one-time depreciation improvements or operational profitability.
Q4 market expects operating profit of about 114.7 trillion KRW, only about 6.8% higher quarter-on-quarter, with growth likely to continue slowing.
The 8-fold increase is already history; future pricing depends on the speed of HBM profit realization, the quality of foundry improvements, and how much premium the market is willing to pay for "how long the memory boom can continue." $SAMSUNG $BTC @OKX中文 @OKX星球 Yesterday, the craziest in the crypto circle was IRYS. A week ago, it was hovering around $0.012, and on OKEx it surged from 0.0244 to 0.32 within 24 hours, rising up to twelve times. Today it dropped back to 0.09, retreating more than 70% from the peak.
Why did it rise so sharply? No project announcements or exchange listings were found; it was driven by shorts. Yesterday, over $24 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with $21.4 million being short positions. Traders tracked that within four hours, more than $18 million in shorts were forcibly liquidated. When shorts are liquidated, they have to buy back at market price, causing prices to rise more and more, which triggers more liquidations—a classic short squeeze. The spike to 0.32 was exactly where shorts were heavily liquidated, but it couldn't hold that level.
The capital flow further explains the situation. According to CoinGlass data, IRYS contract open interest surged nearly 9 times yesterday to about $500 million, with contract volume at 7.2 billion; meanwhile, at 0.14 price, the market cap is only 360 million, so contract open interest exceeds the entire market cap. The price was basically driven by contracts, not spot buying.
Looking at the token distribution: IRYS has a total supply of 10 billion tokens, with only about 20% circulating. Investors and insiders hold over 40%. There is a large unlock scheduled for the end of next month, rumored to release about 10% of the total supply. The price surge coincides with the unlock, so caution is advised.
My view is that this is a leverage-driven move without fundamentals; after the shorts are liquidated, the bulls take over. On the 4-hour chart, RSI is still above 70, EMA20 is at 0.043, only half the current price, so if it really corrects, there is significant downside space. $IRYS The market is still shaking out chips, but a dark horse $IRYS has suddenly exploded on the gainers list!
One line pulled it up tenfold. To be clear, this is not hindsight talk, just a straightforward discussion of the market logic.
This is a typical project team bottom-fishing to build market cap, absorbing enough chips at a low level before directly pushing up, targeting short positions that are basically going to be buried. Comparing with ALPHA, you can see the spot gains lag far behind the explosive power of the contracts, it looks like a copycat market.
But this kind of small coin pure sentiment pump, don’t chase longs impulsively! The selling pressure above has already appeared, now the market is just being propped up by sentiment. In the short term, you can watch the sentiment-driven speculation; if it really continues to rise, it depends on whether it can hold the current price steadily.
This kind of sentiment coin carries huge risk, if you’re not confident, just observe first; less action is the safer choice. $SOL $ZEC #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ 🔍 Bitcoin is moving sideways, but prediction contracts betting on its rise or fall are heating up: is this a new demand or just old trading moving to a new venue? At first glance, I was also attracted by the $2.7 billion, but let's not jump to conclusions yet.
According to Bloomberg, Dune data shows that the nominal trading volume of cryptocurrency-related event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $2.7 billion last week, a record high. Short-term Bitcoin rise and fall contracts are especially active, and cryptocurrencies have become the second largest trading category on both platforms, second only to sports.
An interesting detail here: the statistic is nominal trading volume, which cannot be directly considered as new funds; the active trades are short-term directional bets, and repeated trading can also boost turnover; being the second largest category indicates demand, but the data does not provide the number of unique users, so the breadth of participation cannot be judged.
My judgment is that this is generally positive for the attention on prediction markets, but has limited indication for the price direction of $BTC. Here is my speculation: if range-bound oscillation leads some traders to shift to shorter judgment windows, then this heat may come more from increased trading frequency, and whether users can be retained still needs further investigation.
Next, I want to monitor whether the number of unique trading users can expand accordingly. Let's all keep an eye on the follow-up: do you lean more towards "newcomers entering the market" or "existing players trading more frequently"? Let's see whose speculation is closer.Last night's plunge scared many brothers, who handed over their chips overnight? If you really sold at the bottom, chances are you were deceived by the main force! Looking at the latest ETF fund movements, it turns out things aren't that bad at all.
$BTC had a net outflow of only 3.39 million yesterday, which is tiny compared to the massive 75 million sell-off the day before. Fidelity (FBTC) only withdrew 3.9 million, and BlackRock didn't move at all. What does this mean? At the 81K level, big institutions also feel they can't push prices down anymore; the selling momentum is basically exhausted, and they're starting to lie low and watch.
Looking at $ETH, a reversal has come! Not only was there no outflow yesterday, but there was a net inflow of 1.84 million. Fidelity (FETH) alone bought 1.5 million. Keep in mind, the day before, there was a frantic withdrawal of over 400 million. Now, they have directly turned around to enter and buy the dip. Smart money is genuinely accumulating at this level, quietly repairing Ethereum's spot foundation.
Finally, $SOL had zero inflow and zero outflow yesterday, completely lying flat. Compared to the tens of thousands running away in the past few days, the current selling pressure is so weak it can be ignored.
Summary: Big money has stopped selling BTC, is buying the dip on ETH, and SOL's selling pressure is exhausted. Although the market is still bottoming and deleveraging, the worst panic phase may be passing. Strategically, don't chase shorts or rush to go all in; wait for a confirmed right-side signal before making a move.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
#ETF单日流出超6亿美元，BTC价格能否企稳？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC is stuck at 81,000, but the liquidation map has already marked the "accelerate button" position.
These past two days, watching the market has made my eyes sore. $BTC is grinding around 81,000, neither going up nor down. In the group chat, the mood flipped faster than the candlesticks—from "it's about to break out" in the morning to "is it going to crash" in the afternoon.
But the liquidation map you provided has actually torn out the "key page" of the script and laid it on the table.
The short liquidation intensity above is 1.35 billion, with the biggest pain point at 82,200. Once the price breaks through here, short liquidations will turn into buying pressure—not a slow push, but a scramble to cover—at that time, the rise won’t be a "walk" but an "explosion."
Below, the long liquidation intensity is 850 million, with the biggest pain point at 80,300. If it breaks below here, long liquidations will turn into selling pressure, and the drop won’t be gentle either.
So the real value of the liquidation map has never been to tell you "will it go up or down tomorrow." It tells you: at which points the market will suddenly shift gears. 80,300 and 82,200 are those two shift points. The current price is stuck in between, like a rubber band stretched tight at both ends—whoever lets go first, the other side will snap out.
But just looking at the liquidation map isn’t enough. The news adds a more tangled background to this picture.
On the ETF side, Thursday saw a single-day net outflow of $635 million, the largest since June. BlackRock’s IBIT withdrew $254 million, Fidelity’s FBTC withdrew $217 million. Interestingly, in the first three days of this week, ETFs still had a net inflow of over $1 billion. The money isn’t absent; it’s coming very hesitantly—rising a bit and some run, falling a bit and some buy, institutions themselves weighing repeatedly around the 80,000 mark.
The derivatives side is even more subtle. Funding rates are still positive, Binance at 0.0075%, OKX directly at 0.01%, meaning longs are still paying shorts "holding fees." The proportion of long accounts remains relatively high, but active trades are leaning toward sellers, with Gate’s active sell ratio hitting 66.7%. In plain terms: many are still verbally holding longs, but their hands are ready to hit close positions anytime. Under this structure, once the long pain point at 80,300 is touched, the stampede will be more decisive than expected.
The real referee isn’t in the candlesticks but on October 28. The Federal Reserve meeting is widely expected to hold rates steady this time, but the expectation of a rate hike in December still lingers around 83%. CoinShares puts it bluntly about Bitcoin’s sensitivity to interest rate paths: the next phase’s direction is more likely to be decided by rate expectations rather than the crypto community’s own narrative. Plus, the PCE data on the 29th follows right after the meeting; the price moves in the early morning could be flipped by inflation data by evening.
As for SK Hynix and HBM4, honestly, the transmission chain to the short-term $BTC market is too long and convoluted. HBM4 certification delays and AI chip narratives affect mining machine hashrate expectations and longer-term cost structures, not the decisive variable for whether 82,200 breaks tonight. Using them as anchors for short-term trades risks getting yourself tangled.
So my stance is simple: between 80,300 and 82,200, don’t guess the direction, just wait for acceleration. If it breaks above 82,200, the short covering buying will carry you up; if it breaks below 80,300, the long pain liquidation will smash out lower chips for you. The liquidation map doesn’t predict; it tells you—after the gunshot, which way to run.
Whether to pull the trigger depends on whether you can handle the rubber band snapping back in your face.
$BTC $ETH
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $ZEC
ZEC current price is 1165, down more than 4 points in 24 hours, the worst among mainstream coins. But I casually checked the ETF data; the two US spot ETFs for ZEC and NEAR had a combined net inflow of $21.51 million yesterday.
Price is falling, money is coming in, the directions are conflicting. Some say institutions are buying on the dip, while others say $20 million can't move the market. I lean towards the former: ETF money is locked in, unlike longs in contracts ready to run at any time.
The drop is deserved; a couple of days ago it was smashed from 1258 down to 1158, those who chased at the high are still down.
I've been watching ZEC for a long time; it's volatile, a 10% daily swing is common. If 1100 really doesn't hold, I admit defeat. Anyway, I won't touch it with leverage, just watching the show.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ This time it's not a panic sell-off, but a buying strike. The biggest problem for BTC is not the drop itself, but that no one is buying even when it falls near 80,000.
BTC is currently back near $81,000, with an intraday low of $80,468. Normally, when the price approaches a round number, bottom-fishing funds and short-term traders would push volume higher.
This time, however, it's the opposite.
BTC's trading volume in the past 24 hours has dropped about 32.6%, and ETH's volume has decreased about 22.7%. The price continues downward, but volume is clearly shrinking, indicating that there is no fierce battle between bulls and bears, but rather that active buying is decreasing.
This is different from a large-scale liquidation sell-off. Liquidation events usually cause rapid price drops with high volume, and after the clearing, a rebound is likely. Now it looks more like buyers collectively stopped buying, and sellers don't need much force to push the price down bit by bit.
BTC holding $80,000 only means it hasn't been broken through for now. Volume needs to expand again and push the price back above previous highs to indicate that funds have truly returned.
I won't rush to bottom-fish just because it's near 80,000 over the weekend. Without volume support, it's just a price line, not effective absorption. $IRYS IRYS's single-day doubling surge looks impressive, but the order book is actually leaking.
A massive unlock of nearly 80 million tokens is about to be dumped. Keep in mind, the institutional bottom cost is only 0.0074, so selling now means huge profits. On-chain data can no longer hide it; the main players are frantically offloading in batches at the high.
Looking at the contracts is even clearer: the number of large short positions is more than twice that of longs. Shorts are happily counting money, while bulls are stubbornly holding onto floating losses. Smart money is openly dumping to cash out.
Rushing in enviously now is just paying the dealer's bill.
#IRYS
$IRYS
👇#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
SK Hynix's Q3 earnings report is scheduled for release on October 28, 2026 (Seoul time). Market consensus expects an operating profit of approximately 76.964 trillion KRW, with an operating margin around 78.4%, potentially setting a record high for the sixth consecutive quarter; HBM4 will contribute to profitability, but in the short term, the boost is limited due to shipments falling short of expectations, customer progress, and competition. Full-scale volume and profit contributions are more likely to concentrate in Q4 and beyond.
Earnings report timing and consensus expectations
• Official schedule: Press release before 9 AM on Wednesday, October 28, followed by a Korean-English simultaneous interpretation conference call at 9 AM.
• Consensus (FnGuide, etc.): Q3 operating profit around 76.964 trillion KRW (margin about 78.4%), with Q4 consensus further rising to about 87.27 trillion KRW. Some broker ranges are wider (about 70–80 trillion KRW). Consensus has been revised down about 5.6% compared to three months ago.
• Drivers: Strong demand for AI servers, continued price increases for general DRAM/NAND, combined with a higher proportion of high value-added products (including HBM). Q2 achieved revenue of about 79.3 trillion KRW and operating profit of about 60.5 trillion KRW (margin 76%), with HBM4 starting mass production shipments in Q2.
Current status of HBM4 and its impact on profitability
HBM4 (6th generation high bandwidth memory) is the current core focus, but the pace is not smooth$BTC Binance's long-short ratio has directly topped above 2, with all the bulls holding firm inside.
The current market situation is nerve-wracking; retail investors are still blindly bottom-fishing, while big players are quietly retreating at this level.
Just a glance at Coinbase's spot negative premium shows that the US dollar buying power has already dried up. The main force lingering at this position is purely using retail investors as liquidity for unloading.
With such a heavy long position, unless there's a downward squeeze to clear the leverage, this game simply won't end.
#BTC
$BTC
👇$SNDK is still looking for opportunities to short US stocks; short-term rebounds don't change much.
The crazier AI burns money, the more dangerous the US stock market becomes! Funds are quietly withdrawing.
The biggest hidden risk in the market now is not that AI has no prospects, but that more and more money is being invested, and whether it can be earned back in the future has become a problem.
On October 24, the Nasdaq 100 index recorded its worst two-week performance since April 2025, with AI-related stocks down 4.9% this week, and Meta falling more than 9% in a single week. Meanwhile, funds are accelerating into US Treasuries, with bond ETFs inflowing about $58 billion this month, showing a clear rise in defensive sentiment.
Here's the problem: AI giants are frantically spending to expand computing power, the US government is continuously issuing debt, and everyone is competing for limited capital. Financing demand is growing; once the market starts doubting investment returns, high-valuation tech stocks may face repricing.
What’s even more worrisome is that corporate credit risk is also rising, and companies with weaker financing capabilities may be the first to come under pressure.
What does this mean for the market?
In the short term, be wary of continued pullbacks in tech stocks and risk sentiment spreading to the crypto market. Especially when US stock funds start to defend, risk assets like BTC and ETH may also be dragged down.
Next, focus on whether US tech stocks can stabilize, how bond yields change, and whether credit risk continues to expand How many of the 7 milestones promised in the roadmap have been fulfilled? Core DAO 2026 Progress Report
The 2026 revenue roadmap set seven core goals: AMP asset management, BTC LST liquid staking, dual staking market, SatPay, institutional ETF integration, DAT enterprise treasury integration, and normalized revenue buyback flywheel. Reviewing Q4, only the underlying staking framework is operational; nearly all other commercialization milestones have failed.
AMP and LST remain in testing and small-scale pilots, with no large-scale capital inflow; SatPay, the core revenue driver, has been continuously delayed with no public test version; institutional ETF and DAT enterprise treasury integrations have not materialized; the revenue buyback planned to start in Q3 has not been executed continuously due to near-zero on-chain fees and lack of cash flow support.
The originally planned validator expansion to 31 has instead contracted, with official nodes withdrawing and fewer than 20 active validators. Coupled with controversies such as the August 31 vulnerability, 69 million ghost tokens, and large transfers from reserve addresses, the revenue narrative in the roadmap keeps being postponed.
The Hermes hard fork completed the underlying technical upgrade, and the chain can produce blocks normally, but this does not equate to fulfilling commercial milestones. BTC staking relies on Bitcoin time locks, so principal remains unaffected. Of the 7 core commercialization goals, very few have been achieved; the roadmap feels more like a long-term stabilization PPT plan.$IRYS last night at 3 AM the 1H candle peaked at 0.409, now at 0.089, a 78% retracement from the high. The 24-hour gain is still +235%, but "up 235%" and "retraced 78%" are two sides of the same coin.
Three numbers show this is liquidations running, not a market trend:
1. Open Interest (OI): At 1 AM it was $23.25 million, by 5 AM only $6.43 million remained, evaporating 72% in 4 hours. Price crashed, leverage disappeared together.
2. Funding Rate: At 4 AM it hit +1% (platform cap), longs squeezed to the limit paying shorts; at 6 AM it flipped to -0.12%, direction reversed.
3. Trading Structure: Perpetuals 24h volume $1.32 billion, spot only $105 million, a 12.6x difference. Daily turnover 1.75 billion tokens, 8.7 times the circulating supply (2 billion).
Irys is a Layer-1 datachain for data storage + contract execution, launched on OKX on May 27, circulating 2 billion / total 10 billion, FDV $890 million, market cap only $178 million.
Conclusion first: The price surge is real, liquidations are real too. If you want to bottom-fish, first think clearly whose leverage you are taking over.
Do you think 0.089 is the floor or halfway up the mountain? $IRYS Fun fact of the day: Bitcoin mining cost is split about 50/50 between compute capex and electricity. Meanwhile, AI inference is almost completely dominated by compute capex.Naivety has collapsed
Oil prices surged to 116, Middle East supply risks reemerge, the crypto circle is taking hits for inflation, and ZEC short positions might indeed break through before longs. Brent's spike burns the Fed's rate cut script to smoke; this is not "safe-haven buying of crypto," but the trigger for "rate hikes reloading."
BTC at 81,000, down 3% in 24h and 1% weekly, holding ground but hurting. Initial jobless claims at 194,000 (57-year low) + US debt "higher for longer" + FOMC quiet period, Nasdaq plunges suppress crypto liquidity. ETH at 2404, down 5.5% in a day, worse off; October ETF net outflow of 1.08 billion, institutions cut positions—it's always the first to be dumped. The long-short ratio once hit 3.03 but was counterattacked; weakness persists.
$ZEC at 1236, retraced 20% from 1595, Grayscale ZCSH redeemed 115 million in October, Winklevoss still filing ETF applications, money just changing pockets. 500 short positions hanging steady, previous IRYS high-level distribution and ETH short positions with 100x leverage warnings all remind: controlling positions under high volatility is paramount.
Don't guess the bottom, watch oil prices first. With oil above 100, the Fed can't ease; crypto lacks return fuel; only if Brent falls back below 100, or BTC holds above 83,000 with ETF volume continuing (e.g., daily 528 million turning positive and sustained), will I move. Spot is better than futures, not investment advice, $BTC $ETH $ZEC Imagine you hoarded 200,000 $ETH at an average price of $80.97 during 2016-2022
So now all you need to do is: sell a little from time to time depending on your mood 🤪
Address 0x11A…5c992 is doing exactly that — 7 hours ago it deposited 1000 ETH (about 2.4 million USD), and in the past three years the only thing this address has done is "sell coins," selling at around $3800 and also at $1537, after all, compared to his cost it's just a matter of earning more or less…
Wallet address 0x11A05633E78AAbF81cBc84d58E0F8D07fd25c992