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STRK 4h, current price 0.08695
Resistance 0.09709, support 0.08249
After a previous surge, it has continued to decline, with the price having fallen below all short-term EMAs, currently in a correction channel, following the overall market weakness. A rebound that holds above the 0.09709 resistance level is needed to have a chance to reverse the short-term downtrend; if it breaks below the 0.08249 support, further decline is expected.
News: The market is re-evaluating the Starknet ecosystem, discussing its L1 transformation expectations and narrative shortcomings, combined with the current market sell-off, leading to capital flight for risk aversion.
$BTC $ZEC $W
#CPI and PPI announcements imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are expected in the October 15 earnings report? The cooked duck has flown away, and I even lost some rice on top. Staring at the market, I really want to give myself a shake—why can't I take profits every time I’m in the green?
$BTC current price 82,480, down 1.4%. It touched 84,200 in the early morning, my account briefly turned positive, and I was planning to push a bit more before exiting. Hesitated for a few seconds, then a big bearish candle smashed it down to 82,300. The breakeven line at 83,800 turned from underfoot to a ceiling. Profit turned into loss, all with just one candle from the main force.
$SOL current price 110.8, down 2.3%. Watching it slide down from 116, I thought it could rebound, but it got stuck halfway down the slope. I placed an order at 112.5, now just above 110, the daily drop was straightforward. Thought I was picking up a bargain, but actually caught a flying knife. The big players seem to be watching my small position closely; every time I buy, it crashes.
$ETH current price 2,515, down 0.5%. Ethereum still has the old problem: it never misses a drop but always plays dead on the rise. It touched 2,560 then softened back, I added two lots, just breathing along with the market. Already worn down with no temper, gains and losses are left to fate.
In the end, greed plus slow hands—these two are what the market specializes in punishing. Next time I profit, I’ll pocket half first and push the rest to breakeven. Don’t let the meat in your mouth fly away again.
Just personal venting, not investment advice.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed
#Voice of Trading: Your experience deserves to be heard Good morning everyone, I originally wanted to post earlier, but around 7 o'clock, the market continued to drop, so I decided to wait until the market stabilizes a bit before posting.
1. BTC/USDT Perpetual / $BTC
BTC continues to fall toward our target price.
Yesterday I predicted there would be a second wave of rise to get closer to the upper trendline, but the price fell back instead.
It's okay, during this time, I didn't hold any long or short BTC positions because the space is limited.
So let's wait and see how the price performs around 80000; this is a place to try going long, with a stop loss at 79500.
If it breaks down, we will continue to see 78000.
For those who need to build spot positions, you can continue to do so now, but as you know, don't fully load your spot positions at once; leave 20%-30% and continue to add gradually later.
2. ETH/USDT Perpetual $ETH
I already reduced half of my ETH position last night.
Because I expected BTC to test upward a bit, driving ETH to rebound slightly, then fall.
This is actually fine; ETH has already reached my target take-profit level this morning, so I took full profit.
Of course, I will continue to watch the price reaction at 2400; I might go long again in the next couple of days, and this time the position can be a bit heavier.
3. SOL/USDT Perpetual $SOL
Trading SOL is cost-inefficient; consider buying spot instead!400亿美元的回购，说停就停了。
昨晚存储股集体跳楼，美光跌破1000，闪迪跌了6个点，海力士跌3个点，费城半导体跟跌2个多点，大饼被砸到81247。
今晨答案才出来，三星和SK海力士把史上最大规模的回购计划提前终止了，400亿美元，不买了。
回购是什么？是这轮存储行情的地基。公司自己下场买自己，等于告诉市场，我家股票便宜，我来兜底。现在兜底的撤了，比什么利空都吓人。
还有个细节更要命。长鑫科技宣布4F²架构突破，单元架构上领先韩国巨头两年。一边停回购，一边被追兵咬上，韩国双雄这画面很难看。地基没了，楼盖得再漂亮也得晃。
我空过SNDK，被1791那根阳线教育过，从那以后我看存储只看一件事，价格里装了多少预期。现在不止预期装满了，地基还在抽。财报好是真的，回购停也是真的，两个都是真的，但价格只听后面那个。
存储这条线我盯了一个多月，第一次说，短期别碰了。不是不看好，是地基抽掉之后，得重新打，急不来。
大家觉得，回购终止是利好出尽，还是周期见顶？
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 $SNDK $BTC $ETH Got up at 6:30 AM, checked $ZEC, price was 1208, which hit yesterday's psychological buy target, so I went all in with 6x leverage on the sub-account; while brushing my teeth after getting up, I saw a notification that $BTC dropped below 82000, and $ZEC was already at a floating loss of 150 dollars; no indicators to back this, just a subjective judgment, other coins would be dragged down by BTC, so I decisively stopped loss and cleared the position, then immediately opened a half-position short, floating profit of 298 dollars. Because I had to go to work and couldn't keep watching the market, I took profit and closed the position, now in a flat position.Good morning brothers! Yesterday's signal already rebounded to resistance, so be aware that it will retest the support again. If it can't break above 84500, it will only be a regular rebound without a direct breakout. Currently, it looks like it will perfectly complete this second retest. The key support for the second retest remains at 80000. If 80K holds steady, it will continue to oscillate; if it breaks below here, a regular correction will follow. The target for the regular correction is 75000-78000. Reaching this range is still a buying opportunity. For the short term, focus on the strength of the second retest. It hasn't ended yet. This is just my personal opinion for reference!On Monday, the US stock market opened (Columbus Day, bond market closed), overall value rotation overshadowed the surface calm of the indices. The Dow can rise, the Nasdaq is dragged down by tech, and the S&P is almost flat, indicating that funds are avoiding high valuations and seeking certainty rather than a full exit. The Dow Jones closed at 51850.55, up 195 points, +0.38%. The S&P 500 closed at 7807.24, down 4 points, -0.06%, just shy of the October 6 high. The Nasdaq closed at 27245.90, down 120 points, -0.44%. The Russell 2000 fell 0.45%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped about 2.7%, with the tech sector being the main drag. Eight sectors closed higher, led by energy up about 1.4%-1.5%, with consumer staples and communication services also strong, and financials seeing some buying ahead of bank earnings. Trading volume was noticeably light, reflecting the holiday effect. The market was focused on two things. First, the Middle East risk premium. The Houthi forces attacked Riyadh airport over the weekend and affected oil tankers, pushing Brent crude to around $106.65, up about 1.8%, with energy stocks following suit. Second, AI hardware gave back gains at high levels. Optical and storage-related names continued to digest previously overly optimistic expectations; Lumentum fell nearly 10% in one day, after surging due to "capacity sold through 2029," the market is now questioning delivery and return pace. Software was relatively better; Salesforce rose about 2% after a Bank of America upgrade. The aftermath of OpenAI's revenue discrepancy (about $50 billion versus previously higher figures) is still ongoing, and funds are becoming more selective about pure AI infrastructure stories.10.13 BTC near 82000 with Qingcang support, defense at 82700, targets 80800/80300. Brothers who missed the support yesterday still have a chance to get in today.
Those wanting to go long can wait near 80000 for stabilization, defense at 79400, targets 81200/82000.
BTC 1H has fallen from 86976 continuously, lowest wick at 80344, currently 81422 is just a weak rebound, moving averages are in a bearish alignment, 82000-82500 is resistance above, 80300 is the immediate key support.
USD is strengthening, oil price breaks through 107 dollars, combined with Middle East situation and this week's CPI, any slight change in news could accelerate the market again.
9 years of trading experience: don't chase sharp drops, only look for positions on rebounds.
Don't get thrown off by others making profits; real opportunities require a plan to seize. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #CPI and PPI releases imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests #Russia-Ukraine may reach "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation #TSMC Q3 revenue hits new high, what to watch in the October 15 earnings report? Before the rate hike, Ethereum surging? I don't believe it.
Conclusion straight up: it won't break through.
Looking at volume, it rebounded about 150 points from 2406 to 2564, but the 4-hour volume actually shrank, and buying power can't keep up. The 2560-2600 area above is a dense zone of trapped positions, combined with the 30-day moving average resistance, every time it approaches it becomes a point for shorts to add positions.
The funding situation is worse: BitMine stopped increasing ETH holdings, validators exiting the queue surged from 166,000 to 851,000, and a large amount of staked ETH will unlock in the next two weeks. Supply increases, demand decreases.
The Fed minutes show most officials support continuing rate hikes, liquidity will only tighten further.
So this rebound looks more like handing chips to the shorts. My short position at 2671 is still open, with a floating profit of 400%. If it breaks 2600, I will add to my position. The short-term support below is 2497; if it breaks, look for 2400.
Surging before the rate hike? I don't believe it.
$BTC $ETH $MAGIC
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? Crypto Circle Morning Express｜10.13
Morning.
$BTC total market cap has climbed back above 4 trillion, up about 5.6% overall in the past 24 hours. Around 216 million USD worth of liquidations occurred network-wide in the last hour, mostly short positions.
A few key points:
1. Binance has compensated 283 million USD to users affected by USDe de-pegging; the previously seen “zero price” in spot was just a display bug, not an actual asset wipeout.
2. Fed voting member Harker stated: policy will shift toward tightening, favoring smaller, more frequent rate adjustments.
3. The UK High Court ruled on the Qian Zhimin (Blue Sky Gree) case: the recovery of 61,000 BTC is subject to Chinese law, involving about 4.1 billion GBP, and victims are unlikely to receive subsequent appreciation.
4. The FSB (Financial Stability Board) warned: global stablecoins have yet to face a major stress test; cross-border regulatory monitoring needs strengthening.
5. HKEX today launched Pando’s second spot SOL ETF, ticker 2831.HK, with a 0.6% management fee, no staking, no leverage.
On trading, QCP’s view: the options market currently shows a mix of defensive and bullish sentiment. If it can firmly break above 87k, the next target is 94k. There is about 180 million USD of sell orders stacked near 84,500, with buy support at 82,000.
This week’s main events remain Powell’s speech and the CPI data.ETH一夜闪崩4.2%！2411血洗近10亿，谁在凌晨屠杀多头？
屠杀规模有多大？
据CoinGlass数据，最近1小时全市场 1.45亿美元 被清算，其中多单占比高达 97.5%，空头几乎毫发无伤。过去24小时ETH单币种爆仓 5814万美元，多单占64%。2411这个低点，正好击穿了此前提到的 2401美元 关键清算带——若继续下破，主流CEX累计多单清算强度将达 5.53亿美元。
三重压力同时引爆：
① 中东火药桶再燃。胡塞武装袭击沙特石油设施，布伦特原油升至 107.25美元，WTI突破 94美元，通胀担忧重燃，风险资产集体挨刀。
② 美债收益率创24年新高。10年期美债收益率触及 5.36%，30年期升至2002年以来最高水平，持有无息资产的机会成本骤增。
③ ETF连续9日失血。上周ETH现货ETF净流出 5.42亿美元，其中贝莱德ETHA单周流出 4.77亿美元，创今年最差纪录。 一觉醒来，$BTC 又重新到了8w1这个位置了，那看来我的$BTC 多单平的是非常好，否则要亏450u起步。
做单还是要看长级别（4小时k起步），开比特币多单是因为一小时k站上了120日均线，但是那个时候四小时k其实是碰到120均线后有急速触顶回落的信号。
也就是说中级别和大级别有信号不统一的情况，这个时候要尽可能关注大级别，中小级别实在是噪音干扰太多了。
同时我的两个空单$MAGIC 和bome开始浮盈，bome从0.001空到了0.00077，感觉向下空间有限了，考虑找个合适时机给它平了！
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 I monitored 20 on-chain addresses and found a net sell-off of as much as 35 million pons. (Top 20 holdings on-chain, statistics as of September 30, excluding exchanges and pools, etc., up to today). This data looks quite overwhelming!
From the data on October 11, daily transaction fees and protocol revenue decreased by 25.14% and 21.4% respectively compared to the previous day. The data is still too poor; there's no choice, the drop was inevitable.Liquidation countdown: (life extension version).
At 08:26 this morning, waking up, these two positions are still bleeding, and the health bars are even shorter.
SNDK, 50x leverage, estimated liquidation price 1084.4. Margin left only 9.28U, maintenance margin rate dropped from 692% to 569.82%. There is about 25% space left before liquidation, but with 50x leverage, if the price drops another 2%, the system will start the death stare. Yesterday it was said the neck was under the guillotine, today the blade is already pressed against the back of the neck.
ZHIPU, 10x leverage, return rate -172.90%, for ZHIPU, the liquidation price 50.55 is just a thin sheet of glass away. 10x leverage on small coins is not investing, it's like buying a lottery ticket, and one that you already know you won't win before the draw.
The most outrageous is the account structure. The two long positions in SNDK and ZHIPU are on life support in ICU, and the ETH and BTC longs are also bleeding.
So the liquidation countdown is not a scare tactic. SNDK liquidation price 1084.4, ZHIPU liquidation price 50.55, it still looks distant, but under the triple squeeze of small coins + high leverage + funding rate, a 20% drop in one day is like child's play.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? #Institutions continue to position, why is BTC still under pressure? $BTC $ETH $ZEC Unity of knowledge and action, why is it so difficult?
Clearly, the MACD daily chart shows a bearish divergence, indicating a high probability of a market pullback, yet I still can't control my own hands.
When profitable, I am unwilling to take profits; after the price falls below the cost, I am reluctant to accept losses, choosing to hold the position and even cancel stop-loss orders. In the end, I even add to losing positions against the trend, trying to average down the cost, turning a light position into a heavy one, and the more I lose, the less willing I am to admit mistakes.
In fact, the market has given opportunities.
During the previous big drop, the market offered chances to rebound and reduce positions, but I did not cherish them. When Bitcoin rebounded to around the Fibonacci 0.618 level, it encountered resistance and formed a large bearish candle on the hourly chart, closing at the lowest point. These signals were clearly seen, but because of unwillingness, I chose to ignore them. The same mistakes keep repeating.
When prices rise, I fear missing out and blindly open positions; when prices fall, I fear admitting mistakes and refuse to stop losses; when losses expand, I try to recover by adding positions.
Ultimately, it’s not that I don’t understand the principles, but greed and fear have taken over.
Always hoping to double in a day or multiply tenfold in a week, yet unable to calmly accept a normal stop loss. Always wanting to catch every market move, but unwilling to admit that I can be wrong too.
What’s truly frightening is not the loss itself, but the continuous bigger mistakes made to avoid losses.
This time, I don’t want to comfort myself by blaming the market conditions.
Going forward, I won’t rush to recover losses or blindly pursue doubling. I will rebuild trading rules, learn to take profits, stop losses, and stay out of the market; no longer covering mistakes by adding positions, no longer avoiding losses by holding on.$ETH: Short on rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 2,450-2,460 range (EMA5 and previous small platform resistance zone) and then enter short after resistance.
· Target the previous low at 2,405 first; if broken effectively, look at 2,380. Set stop loss above 2,500.
Core basis:
1. Bearish moving average alignment: On the 1-hour level, EMA5/10/20 diverge downward, price is suppressed below all moving averages, rebound highs are continuously decreasing, confirming a short-term weak trend.
2. Systematic market decline: Figure 2 shows mainstream coins sharply falling across the board ($SOL down 6%, FIL down 10%, $STRK down 29%), panic sentiment spreading in the market, lacking independent strength.
3. Whale chips causing long liquidation: Figure 3 shows the average long cost at 2,551, currently deeply underwater (unrealized loss of 40.88 million U). Heavy trapped positions near 2,550 above, rebounds to this level will face forced selling pressure, making shorting with favorable risk-reward ratio.
#Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation Set take profit near 80500, wait for tonight's upward spike to short again, see how high it can spike, expected to approach the top of wave B, might even break the top of wave B. If tomorrow's PPI exceeds expectations, it will accelerate the decline of wave C.The most honest signal in the current market is trading volume. BTC is declining with shrinking volume in the $81,000-$82,000 range, ETH is weakly consolidating between $2,450-$2,500, and the volume does not support a reversal. Without volume confirmation, any "stop in decline" is just a continuation of the shrinking volume downtrend, not a bottom.
A bottom requires three signals to appear simultaneously:
First, ETF outflows stop. The daily net outflow of BTC and ETH spot ETFs returns to zero or turns into net inflows. This is the first solid signal of improved capital flow, more honest than any technical indicator.
Second, leverage cleansing is complete. The proportion of long liquidations drops from the current 73% to below 50%, indicating the market is no longer a one-sided slaughter. The current disparity in long and short liquidations shows the cleansing is not yet finished.
Third, a sustained decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year yield falls from 5.24% to below 5%, not just a 1-2 basis point fluctuation but a continuous downward trend. Before this, any rebound is a pulse, not a trend.
In terms of operations, BTC stabilizes with shrinking volume at $81,000-$82,000 plus continuous net inflows in ETFs for 2-3 days; lightly go long with a stop loss at $79,500 and targets at $83,400-$83,900. If the daily close breaks below $79,000, do not catch the falling knife. ETH currently has less favorable odds than BTC; $2,401 is the stop loss line, $2,636 is the first target, but under the background of systematic ETF withdrawal, this is only short-term speculation, not a portfolio strategy.Observation: Both crypto and stocks are hit hard, no one can escape the macro liquidity drain
It's not just the crypto market taking a hit; US tech stocks are equally brutal.
Micron (MU) fell 2.42%, SanDisk (SNDK) dropped 2.87%, SK Hynix (SKHYNIX) declined 2.61%, and the 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL) plunged 4.01%. Even SpaceX (SPCX) fell 1%.
On the crypto side, BTC retreated to 81323, down 1.65%; ETH broke below 2421, crashing 4.26%.
What exactly happened?
First, the US dollar index surged to a high level, combined with Brent crude oil holding firm at $106, severely draining macro liquidity.
Second, Broadcom and Intel CEOs warned that AI infrastructure funding costs are too high, causing the market to question returns, directly hammering the semiconductor and tech sectors.
Third, CPI data will be released tomorrow night, prompting large funds to collectively retreat to avoid risk.
Crypto and stocks move in tandem, sharing the same heat and cold. Big money is waiting for the macro shoe to drop; at this critical moment, watching more and acting less is better than anything else.
#CPI and PPI releases are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test BTC has successfully (for the bears) lost the steady uptrend on the 3- and 4-hour timeframes. The basic targets and potential breakdown levels are shown in the screenshots. As can be seen, the furthest basic target is $80,984. As previously mentioned, we interpret this as confirmation of the version that the high of the rebound from October 8 was the maximum on October 12, at the level of $84,352. And further decline will continue to new local lows. On this signal, as planned, we once again added to our August short position. This raised the breakeven level to $78,582,BTC 82,048｜84K failed to hold, the market has returned to a key support level.
BTC has fallen back near 82K again, indicating that selling pressure above remains heavy. Previously, support appeared around 80K, pushing the price to rebound, but to reopen upward momentum, it must first reclaim 83K and then break through 84K–84.5K. Conversely, 82K is the current short-term defense line; if it fails and remains below, watch out for a retest of 81K or even a pullback to 80K.
There is a key background to this volatility: the US September CPI will be released on October 14, and last week the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $681 million, so capital demand has not yet clearly recovered. Inflation data may change the market’s judgment on the Fed’s rate path, and changes in the dollar and yields will also affect BTC’s rebound strength. $BTC #CPIandPPIupcoming, rate hike expectations face a test
Contract strategy: first see if 82K can hold, then check if the rebound has sustainability. Only by standing back above 83K is there a chance to retest 84K; if 82K fails, beware of expanded downside. The easiest mistake now is to mistake a rebound for a reversal or a drop for an inevitable continued decline.
This week’s direction may not be decided by technicals alone; CPI is the next hurdle the market must overcome.
For market analysis only, not investment advice.单币合约异动｜近15分钟
$RSR 下跌伴随增仓。价格-1.53%，持仓量+4.19%；成交195万USDT，为此前1小时折算15分钟均量的2.0倍。Morning Report 2026.10.13
BTC $81,789｜ETH $2,446｜SOL $105
As of October 13, 2026, the crypto market accelerated its decline, with the three major coins simultaneously hitting recent lows. ETF funds have fully withdrawn, awaiting CPI guidance.
📊 Major Asset Market
BTC: Around $81,789**. Total network open interest is **$55.05 billion, up slightly 1.28% in 24H. Price is falling while open interest rises, shorts are adding positions. Binance rate +0.0019%, OKX +0.0066%.
ETH: Around $2,446**, breaking below the lower boundary of the whale liquidation zone. **$2,401 is the critical line for bulls; breaking it will trigger $553 million long liquidation. Binance rate -0.0033%, OKX -0.0017%, shorts dominate.
SOL: Around $105**, 24H liquidations total **$10.89 million, longs account for 94%, bulls are suffering the harshest unilateral liquidation. Open interest $7.01 billion, down 3.91% in 24H, deleveraging is ongoing.
💡 Trading Suggestions
BTC: No rush to bottom-fish, wait for volume expansion and stabilization signals near $80,000.
ETH: $2,401 is the critical line; strictly exit if broken.
SOL: Do not chase shorts; wait for open interest to stabilize and rates to turn positive before reassessing.
Maintain low leverage and control positions before CPI release; avoid premature speculation. 观察：恐慌盘踩踏，现货布局窗口正在打开
BTC跌至81300，ETH失守2430，主流山寨齐跌超4%
市场情绪降至冰点，满屏都是割肉离场的声音。
但换个角度看，这恰恰是现货捡筹码的时机。
合约面临爆仓清算，而现货没有强制平仓的达摩克利斯之剑
情绪化杀跌砸出的坑，往往是给耐心者留的入场券。
但明晚CPI尚未落地，宏观不确定性依然巨大
分批慢慢接是唯一能控制风险的方式，抱着赌的心态一把梭，容易被反复摩擦。
等恐慌盘彻底出清，真正的底部才会浮现。W很热，但还不能叫全面回暖
$W 这次确实走出了明显强势。
最近24小时涨约35%，近一周涨约66%，价格已经把阶段成绩带起来了。
我会提高关注度，但不会因为一个币大涨，就把整个市场的预期一起抬高。
它能继续上涨，和其他币能不能跟上，需要分别判断。
眼下更想看急涨之后的承接。
如果停下来还能留在高一些的位置，后续才有继续推进的基础；如果热度一降就迅速退回去，这口上涨的持续性就要打折扣。
$OP 还有周内成果，短线却在回吐。
最近24小时跌约4.8%，近一周仍涨约2.7%，不能只挑其中一个数字来判断强弱。
我的评价是阶段上涨尚未完全丢掉，眼下先看调整。
后面需要止住回落、恢复主动推进，而不是靠前几天的成绩一直维持偏强判断。
$BICO 暂时没有跟上这股热度。
最近24小时跌约4.3%，近一周跌约15.2%，月内也回落约6.3%。
所以我不会拿“别人涨了，它也该涨”作参与理由。
补涨先要有自己的表现。眼下多看少动，等价格开始改善，再考虑提高排序，不能靠想象把分化写成普涨。$ETH shorts finally got liquidated this time!
ETH experienced a massive liquidation this time, with a total of 160 million liquidated in 24 hours, 130 million from longs, and only 24.266 million from shorts.
Whether it's 1 hour, 4 hours, or 12 hours, the volume of long liquidations overwhelmingly surpasses shorts, clearly indicating a sharp drop market where many longs chasing highs were wiped out. Few shorts were liquidated, showing this was mainly a dump to harvest longs, making short-term long chasing extremely risky.
⚠️Risk warning: Liquidation data only reflects completed liquidation records and cannot predict future market trends 总市值24小时掉了4.91%，剩2.76万亿美元。$BTC 只跌2.67%报81430，$ETH 跌4.23%，$SOL 跌5.93%。BTC占比59.29%，大盘跌幅接近比特币的两倍，多出来的全压在山寨身上。
$STRK 一天砸掉30.38%，换手率61.11%，六成流通市值换了手。$W 跌14.92%，换手率232.61%。跌得深的都带着大成交，筹码在往外走。
逆势的只有 $RSR，涨27.23%，换手181.53%。它的资金费率是-1.16%，全市场最负，$BLUR 也有-0.77%。现货在拉，永续上空头付着钱压它，这种读数后面多数是回吐。
未来48小时山寨继续弱于比特币。翻多要两件事同时出现：$BTC 守住81430，BTC占比从59.29%往下走。$RSR 看费率，-1.16%不往零轴收，这段涨幅守不住。Market Breakdown: The Joys and Worries of Earnings Season, Multiple Tests for Risk Assets
Semiconductor Earnings Season: A Tale of Two Extremes
TSMC's Q3 revenue approaches NT$1.5 trillion, up 51% year-over-year, setting a record high for six consecutive quarters; Samsung's operating profit surpasses 100 trillion KRW for the first time, soaring nearly 8 times year-over-year. AI computing power demand continues to materialize, and memory chips have entered a "money-printing moment." However, ASML's Q3 earnings report is about to be released, and whether EUV orders can support its AI premium has become a market focus.
Macro Geopolitics: US Treasury Alarm Raised
Trump announced a "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, but both sides have yet to officially confirm, and actual implementation is doubtful. More worrisome is PIMCO's warning that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6% under extreme scenarios, with high oil prices, stubborn inflation, and debt expansion forming a triple threat.
Crypto Market: Trust Crisis and Security Reflection
Institutions continue to increase holdings, with Strategy's position reaching 848,000 BTC, yet prices remain under pressure. The Ledger theft investigation points to a single Southeast Asian distributor channel, involving nearly $93 million, exposing security weaknesses in the hardware wallet supply chain. Coupled with the US's plan to seize Iran-related crypto assets and security threats brought by AI and quantum computing, the industry is facing a critical window for trust rebuilding.
In summary, TSMC and ASML's earnings will test the substance of the AI narrative, the trajectory of US Treasury yields will determine the valuation center of risk assets, and the crypto market needs to find a new balance between security and compliance. $BTC $ETH 凌晨出现放量下杀行情：4小时级别一根大阴线直接击穿EMA5/10/20全部均线，BTC自83600一线快速下探至81300，ETH从2550上方回落至2413，振幅逼近5%。
盘面结构上ETH显著弱于BTC，24小时跌幅接近BTC的三倍，资金有明显从山寨、公链赛道撤离，回流BTC避险的特征。
短线指标已经进入超卖区间，1小时KDJ的J值回落至0附近，存在技术性反抽的动力；但各周期MACD绿柱仍在持续扩张，均线呈空头排列，本轮反弹大概率属于下跌中继，不适合急于抄底。
重点观察支撑位：BTC首要观察81300能否企稳，一旦跌破下一目标看80400；ETH重点守住2400整数关口。#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ ETH has slipped back to 2515 again. The most fragile link is actually not the price. Have you noticed that what really keeps people awake at night is never a 1% drop, but that the leverage hasn't been fully cleaned out yet? When watching the market at night, ETH hovers around 2515; during the day it surged above 2550 but failed to hold, then retraced along with BTC. The rebound from last week's low is now being slowly digested by the market. On the surface, it looks like a normal pullback, but the derivatives market hides a more real story. Key levels are as follows: - Support is between 2480 and 2500, with 2460 below that. - Resistance is from 2550 to 2580, then 2600. Holding 2500 means the short-term structure can still hold; losing it might lead to a test down to 2450. Why do I focus on these numbers but care more about open interest and funding rates? Because if after the rebound the funding rate remains positive and long positions are still piled high, this pullback is not a simple correction but a trigger for a squeeze. The price hasn't broken key levels, but the leverage structure is already weakening. Once around 2480 is quickly breached, stop-losses and forced liquidations will pile up, causing the decline to be sharper than the candlesticks suggest. The bullish path is also possible: as long as 2500 can be reclaimed, funding rates cool down, and open interest lightens, ETH can reorganize an attack relying on spot buying, driving altcoin sentiment recovery. If BTC stabilizes, risk appetite will gradually return, but this takes time and cannot be solved by a single bullish candle. What is easily overlooked is that the market is now trading not direction, but position health. Last week's low rebound made many people$BTC ：反弹做空
策略：
·等待价格反弹至81,900-82,300区间（EMA5/EMA10及多头成本密集压制区）受阻后进空。
·目标先看81,247（24小时低点），有效跌破则看80,351前低。防守止损设在82,700（EMA20）上方。
核心依据：
1. 均线空头压制：1小时级别EMA5(82,037)、EMA10(82,345)、EMA20(82,700)向下发散，价格运行于三线之下，自86,656见顶后高点不断下移，弱势格局明确。
2. 筹码面主力猎杀：聪明钱数据显示多头极其拥挤（1.96B），平均成本82,302。当前价格已跌破多头成本线，多头处于亏损状态。主力极大概率向下砸盘，引爆这近20亿的多头止损，形成踩踏。
3. 量价配合极差：下跌阶段伴随放量，当前低位反弹量能极度萎缩，表明多头承接无力，上方套牢盘沉重，顺势做空盈亏比极佳。
$ETH $ZEC
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 The core catalyst this week is the US CPI data on October 14. If inflation is high, the US dollar and US Treasury yields will strengthen, and BTC may retest $80,000–$81,000; if the data is moderate, there is a chance to retake $84,000–$85,000.
Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw significant net outflows, with institutional funds being cautious in the short term; however, whale addresses are still accumulating at low levels, showing an on-chain divergence of "institutional outflows, large holders accumulating." The crypto world is truly the biggest mental asylum in the history of human finance.
Bitcoin rises 2%, bulls start researching buying property in Dubai.
Bitcoin falls 2%, bears start studying global financial crises.
Up 5%, someone declares the dollar system is about to collapse.
Down 5%, someone declares Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme.
The most abstract thing is:
Bulls losing money say they are long-termists.
Bears getting liquidated say they are hedging systemic risk.
Spot holders stuck say they are positioning for the future.
Contract holders going to zero say they paid their tuition in cognitive fees.
A group of people study the Federal Reserve every day, yet in the end, they don’t even understand their own positions.
Bitcoin might not know where it’s going.
But everyone in crypto knows they will be financially free tomorrow.
I seriously suspect now that the biggest consensus in crypto isn’t Bitcoin, but that everyone thinks the others are fools.
If you disagree, come debate—first disclose your position size, not your beliefs.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test 反弹只是喘息，验证仍在路上
10月9日恐慌抛售后，市场情绪回暖：总市值回到2.89万亿美元，贪婪指数升至56。但修复不等于反转——美国现货比特币ETF连续两日净流出4.85亿、2.44亿美元，机构退潮，散户观望。
$BTC 在84,000附近徘徊，83,000既是ETF平均成本，也是多空分水岭。上方套牢盘密集，只有放量站稳才算突破；下方77,000是支撑，市场押注10月跌破8万概率67%。$ETH 约2,566，跌幅远超BTC，ETF六日失血，2,550—2,600成压力带，冲不过或回踩2,470甚至2,400。$SOL约113，短线偏强，关键看买盘能否接力。$ZEC 约1,265，灰度ETF与隐私叙事带来高弹性，但获利了结压力不轻。
接下来就看两件事：通胀数据会不会再超预期，俄乌能源停火是真是假。操作上别急着追，BTC盯83,000能不能放量站稳，ETH看2,600修不修得回来，SOL看有没有资金接力，ZEC弹性大但别接最后一棒。反弹先当反弹做，等回调确认再下手。
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $W has entered the oversold zone; a rebound and a bottom are two different things.
$W is down 15.96% in 24 hours, currently priced at 0.01864. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 8 and 52 respectively. Oversold conditions can trigger rebound demand, but a rebound only indicates a sharp drop, while a bottom requires the price to stop breaking the structure.
Volume does not support the trend: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.15 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can also move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next market phase. A single touch or one long candlestick is not enough to draw conclusions.
Looking back at the 24-hour range: the low is 0.01864, the high is 0.03175. The current price at 0.01864’s position within this range directly affects the meaning of the same signal. When near the high, strength needs to prove it’s not a spike followed by a fall; when near the low, a rebound needs to prove it’s not a continuation of the downtrend. The range is not a forecast target, but a tool to check if the current narrative is hiding risks.$BTC B浪大顶（87000）如果确认是本轮反弹的顶部，从见顶算起，12～18个月区间，就是大底出现的时间窗口。
高点是2026年下半年，往后推12~18个月，大底落在2027上半年，正好和咱们之前推演的时间对上。
你现在说的：现在起未来6个月（2026年10月 — 2027年4月）就是大底显现的窗口期，这个推演是符合这套周期框架的。
前半段（11、12月）：C浪主跌释放抛压，途中会有多次诱多反弹（死猫跳），不断清洗高位追涨的资金。
• 后半段（2027年初）：主跌结束打出终极低点，随后进入低位横盘磨盘，反复假破位消耗抄底者耐心。
6个月之后（2027年下半年）：筑底收尾，等待流动性转暖
底部震荡充分消化B浪87000的套牢筹码，宏观上看美联储降息周期落地，美债长端收益率下行，风险资产估值修复，才会启动新一轮大级别上涨。
两个关键前提，这套时间周期才成立
1. 87000必须确认是有效的B浪顶部
也就是BTC后续周线有效跌破57000，C浪结构确认。
如果行情守住57000，只是中级调整，那87000就不是大顶，这套12~18个月寻底的周期直接作废。行情震荡几个月就会再度挑战新高。
2. 没有超预期的巨大宏观黑天鹅
如果出现极端通胀、全球流动性危机，下跌周期会拉长，大底时间会延后；如果通胀快速回落，流动性提前宽松，底部也有可能提前出现，不用等到2027上半年。#CPI and PPI Announcements Imminent, Interest Rate Hike Expectations Face Test
$BTC The core focus this week is the US September CPI and PPI inflation data. As the Federal Reserve meeting approaches at the end of the month, the data will rewrite expectations for rate hikes or cuts, driving sharp volatility in cryptocurrencies and gold.
CPI reflects consumer-end prices, while PPI reflects upstream production costs. Only by combining both can we judge whether inflation is truly easing or just a short-term illusion.
Currently, the market is only undergoing an oversold correction, not a trend reversal. Early in the week, there is no major data, so the market mainly plays on expectations. The market will most likely fluctuate and consolidate, with frequent long and short traps. Do not mistake test fluctuations for a directional move.
$ETH $ZEC I have closed my positions in Ethereum and small Bitcoin; the pattern is no longer favorable. I’m taking profits first and will go long again after further declines. Currently, Bitcoin is still looking at 86000.SK Hynix suddenly plummets: It's not a fundamental collapse, but the chips loosened first
Among the three major memory manufacturers, SK Hynix has fallen the most sharply this round.
Many people's first reaction: Is the AI storage logic gone? Actually, not entirely.
The real trigger is the change in capital structure: foreign capital continues to sell, the large buyback dividends that previously supported the stock price have basically faded, and a large amount of passive buying support is missing. Coupled with active retail trading in the Korean market itself, once expectations waver slightly, turnover rises rapidly, floating chips increase suddenly, and a "long liquidation" rapid drop can easily occur.
One key point to note: SK Hynix has the highest proportion of HBM, with many orders under long-term contracts. The spot price increase dividends are actually less direct than those of Micron and SanDisk, and the market is beginning to reassess its profit elasticity.
Now it's not simply about "good or bad," but the market has shifted from blindly bullish to testing chip stability through turnover rate.
High turnover = increased divergence: if turnover quickly falls after a drop, it indicates selling pressure is gradually exhausted; if it remains high, the time for a bottoming consolidation may be extended.
The long memory cycle remains, but the era of high volatility has arrived, and the risk of heavily betting on a one-sided move has clearly increased. 本来准备在11.3号美国中期选举之前，无论是止盈还是亏损，都要清仓trump代币的。今天早上大饼和以太开始阴跌了，盘面上给了我一种大肃杀的感觉。
今天也已经是10.13号，距离11.3号也不过就20天了，今天止损，也合理。trump的项目方真是不争气，就知道砸盘出货，这么好的中期选举利好，也不拉盘，也是服了。
但我也有做的不好的地方，trump币这一轮最高拉到了3.6，按照我的交易纪律，我应该是腰斩一半，也就是1.8入场的。如果我真的按照交易纪律去执行了，现在价格也在1.8附近，我也亏不了什么钱。
当时的我，也被市场上fomo的情绪感染到了。大饼以太狂拉，链上土狗，各个链的都在拉盘，rh链的代币拉的更猛。我只有2层仓位在车上，就会有点慌，结果就追高了trump。今天止损的时候，足足亏了800多刀，人民币接近6000块了，挺多钱了。我现在，对钱已经是有概念了的，不再像以前那么浮夸，没概念。$ZEC currently lacks directional views but needs verifiable conditions.
Scenario 1: Break through 1,349.3 and hold, indicating the continuation of a weak structure. Scenario 2: Fall below 1,150.45, invalidating the short-term logic.
Current price is 1,158.5, about 0.69% away from the 1-hour support at 1,150.45, and about 16.47% from the resistance at 1,349.3. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are weak, with RSI at 8 and 37 respectively. Volume is 0.62 times; for now, it only provides clues and does not conclude price direction.
With these two scenarios laid out, do you think the upper confirmation or the lower invalidation will trigger first?
The above is a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull Talk.8小时策略复盘｜2026-10-13｜极简复盘
统计区间：2026-10-13 00:00 至 2026-10-13 08:00（Asia/Singapore，不含结束时刻）
合约：BTC-USDT-SWAP
交易所成交回执：0 条
开仓或加仓成交：0 条
平仓成交：0 条
回执已分页核验并按成交标识去重；部分成交按回执条数计算，不等于订单数。
少一些推测，保留可核对的事实。
该区间未查到成交，不代表全天无交易，也不代表没有持仓。
信号数量、账户余额与净盈亏本轮未单独核验，不作数值结论。
仅作为策略测试和真实交易记录，不构成投资建议。开局一张图，
内容全靠编。
大饼这个走势，
把前几天赚的又都亏回去了。
如果昨晚出来，
这一手还不会亏。
而且浮亏反弹，
平仓了结正是超短线价值。
拿到早上的下跌，
承受不住压力了。
浮亏止损，
回不去的超短线。高杠杆合约玩的就是心跳，$SOL 这单算是踩准了节奏。
10月面临宏观压力和筹码出清，盘面波动极大，一不小心就会爆仓。
考虑到指标超买且资金流出，我严格控仓在108.93开了100倍空。
价格回落到104.5，收益达到406.68%。
后市事件落地前后估计还会剧烈洗盘，建议降低开仓频率，保护好利润最重要。$ZEC $BTC 拿100u全自动跑$ETH 第54天（08:15）｜价在跌，仓在撤
前两天说的去试2410，当时没去成还冲了波高的，晚了一天，早上8点砸到2412，该来还是会来。
昨天问的那句"平完有没有新钱接上"，答案今天出来了：没有。2508、2470、2440挨个破，持仓量连着两天在掉，现货ETF连9天净流出，小7个亿。
2578没够着4小时长均线，日线留了根50点的长上影；三个周期下轨本来全挤在2480，也没守住，砸到昨天说得支撑点。下轨翻了当盖子，反弹上面先看2480。
白天那波是空头挨扫推上去的，一个钟头扫了1.31亿、空的占八成五，扫完没人接就下来了；一整天多空两头扫出去6.87亿。
筹码还在换手：散户还是六成五做多，没动；大户空仓没接着退，空的那头还占上风。
$BTC $ZEC
🤖 这边白天倒很舒服，多单在上涨中分批出，集中在2560上下换手。晚上空单开得也还行，在破位前——2525一带就把空挂上了，在下跌中也是分批出。接的多就不是那么舒服了，在下跌中接了一路，目前位置还行，就是挂着的。$BLUR BLUR is currently at 0.01352, news about "frontend deprecation" triggered liquidations, the market is in chaos. The daily chart shows strong bearish momentum, but don't chase the bottom, control your impulses.
Playing with 0.58U, placed a short order at 0.01405 waiting for a rebound, stop loss at 0.0146 to cut losses immediately; if it doesn't rebound, this trade is dead. The order is set to auto-patrol, going to grab a coffee, let it fall however it wants.BTC rebound failed again, near 80,000 I actually don't want to make rash moves
Yesterday it bounced from 80,400 to 84,000, I thought it could hold a bit longer, but this morning it dropped back to 81,400
This market is quite difficult to trade now, if you chase shorts, 80,400 below is already very close; if you try to bottom-fish directly, the 4-hour chart clearly still shows a bearish structure.
So my own idea is simple: don't chase shorts before 80,400 breaks, if it really returns near 80,000 then see if it can stop falling.
If it can hold and then reclaim 82,000, this rebound still has potential; if 80,400 is decisively broken, then just keep waiting.
The easiest way to lose money these days is not the lack of market movement, but thinking every rebound is the bottom. $BTC BTC short at 84100 is profitable
Last month's Micron MU short at 1090
SNDK SanDisk short at 1900 continues to be profitable $BTC $PUMP 一天砸了 12.18%，我反倒看多。翻筹码的时候看到很少见的一幕，价格往下掉，大资金那边在把盘面接过去，位置就在距 90 天高点回撤 27% 的地方。抛压一天之内集中放完了，跌出来的筹码有人拿走，这个价位有人认。未来 24 小时 $PUMP 结构偏多，跌势在这里收住，接下来走企稳修复。$BLUR BLUR midnight raid, a single spike shatters the bulls
Bro, this midnight dump really messes with your mindset. BLUR plunged 25% in a cliff-like drop from 0.019 straight down to 0.0135, not even giving time to react.
The 15-minute chart draws a door, a deep red long wick with no pullback at all. The most ironic part is that the news feed still features a podcast interview saying "the market will still rise 10x," but the manipulator flipped the table.
On the eve of CPI, funds seek safety; altcoins are basically cash machines. With liquidity drying up at midnight, the manipulator can break through defenses at extremely low cost.
This late-night sneak attack is clearly a precise demolition of the bulls' leverage. Doing this in the dead of night, the whole story is written in the candlestick chart.$SNDK This morning Hynix directly fell below 1150, and SanDisk followed with a drop, hitting a low of 1427.6. It feels very similar to mid-July, with Hynix plummeting during the day dragging SanDisk down, and SanDisk falling even more at night dragging Hynix down 🤣