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## 今日 T+24H 突发（4 条）
1. 🔴 **伊朗革命卫队 10/12 在霍尔木兹再扣一艘违规油轮**（两天内第三艘），航运风险持续升级
2. 🔴 **胡塞再袭沙特空军基地**，利雅得机场关闭延至 10/18；沙特 24h 内 119 次空袭报复；**美军暂不直接下场仅情报支持**（关键缓释）
3. 🔴 **克利夫兰联储哈玛克放鹰 "需小步快频加息"**；CME 12 月加息 25bp 概率升至**70.3%**（上期 64.1%）
4. 🟠 **俄乌 "能源停火" 罗生门**：佩斯科夫正式拒绝 60 天停火；泽连斯基指控俄一边克制一边被打加油站；俄方至今未确认
## 核心盯单点
- **今日盘前银行财报**：JPM EPS $5.93 / GS $14.47 / C $2.64 / WFC $1.844
- **明日 CPI**（10/14 20:30）：预测整体 + 3.6% / 核心 + 2.5%，核心环比 0.21% 为决胜点
- **模拟交易**：维持 100% 空仓，CPI + 银行财报双重事件前不追多October 13 Crypto Market Daily: The recovery didn't hold, the pullback has arrived. BTC fell back to $81.8K, ETH lost $2,500, SOL dropped below $106 — yesterday's small rise was swallowed by today's bearish candle. As of around 07:35 Beijing time on October 13: BTC: $81,820, 24H -2.19%
ETH: $2,451.52, 24H -3.27%
SOL: $105.66, 24H -4.94% 24H trading volume: BTC about $27.35B
ETH about $13.10B
SOL about $3.11B Market cap: BTC about $1.645T
ETH about $299.66B
SOL about $62.30B All three declined simultaneously, with clear strength hierarchy: BTC is the most resilient, ETH second, SOL the largest drop. The trading volume clearly expanded, indicating this is a volume-backed decline, not a low-volume gradual drop. In short: this is a pre-CPI early reduction of positions, not a trend collapse, but definitely not a time to add positions. 1) Price structure: recovery failed, BTC fell back to the lower boundary of the range BTC reported at $81,820, 24H -2.19%. Binance 24H range about $81,800-$84,352. BTC dropped directly from above $84K back to $81.8K, basically giving back all of yesterday's recovery, heavy💎 ETH: Security Is Just as Important as Growth!
One Ethereum development I find worth discussing is the Foundation’s research into native transaction assertions.
The idea is to help users verify that a transaction produces the intended outcome, rather than relying only on the fact that a transaction was signed. 🔐
In my view, making blockchain transactions safer and easier to understand is an important part of wider adoption. 📉 大盘回调别慌，这4个标的正在“蓄力”！
今天SUI、PUMP、ZEC、ARB都在跌，但基本面利好却在密集轰炸，典型的“借势洗盘”：
SUI (-5.4%)：机构资金狂飙！纳入CME指数 + 解锁5亿美元BTC流动性，基建正在疯狂补全。
PUMP (-6.4%)：Meme赛道王者护城河深，日均回购销毁125万美元，累计已烧掉3亿美金，通缩逻辑最硬。
ZEC (-7.8%)：隐私币ETF费率战开打！Gemini申请ETF管理费仅0.25%（灰度是2.5%），机构配置成本大降。
ARB (-4.0%)：Robinhood链上线两月交易量狂飙346亿刀，“Meme+美股”玩法引爆流量外溢。
💡 观察员观点：恐慌是检验基本面的最佳时机。CPI数据前多看少动，但这几个左侧逻辑很硬的票，值得加入自选重点盯盘！👀
#Web3 #加密货币 #SUI #PUMP #ZEC #ARB #投资观察$ETH The Federal Reserve is the hidden big player in the crypto market: One sentence from Harker makes the market more bearish than Twitter news
Honestly, trading crypto now without watching the Federal Reserve is like driving without looking at traffic lights.
The hardest news today: Cleveland Fed President Harker said U.S. interest rates still need to rise further, inflation will stay at 2.5%–3.0%, companies are raising prices faster than costs, and "inflation mindset" is solidifying. She is also a voting member for the October meeting and is "open" to whether to raise rates on October 27–28.
The market pricing now is: 79.5% chance of no change in October, 20.5% chance of a 25bp hike; 70.3% chance of a 25bp hike by December. This is very clear—not an immediate hike, but the "easy money dream" is gone.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
Strong dollar → risk asset valuations pressured → BTC/ETH unlikely to have a crazy bull run
High U.S. Treasury yields → funds prefer 5%+ yield in Treasuries rather than gambling in crypto
Weak U.S. tech stocks → crypto follows down, especially high beta like ETH/SOL
So today ETH grinding between 2447–2500 is not decided by retail investors, but the "Fed expectations" pressing down the ceiling. Don’t believe in "$100k soon," believe first that the Fed won’t turn hawkish again. $BTC #CPI and PPI releases are imminent, rate hike expectations face a test $BTC 现在币圈的流行姿势是“囤”。上市公司把比特币当储备资产，矿企挖出来的币捂在手里等升值——但有一家上市矿企，偏偏把每一枚挖出来的币当场卖掉，账上留零。
吴说区块链 10 月 10 日的快讯显示，纳斯达克上市的比特币矿企 Bitdeer（比特小鹿）在截至 10 月 9 日的一周里，把挖出的 300.6 枚 BTC 全部卖出，公司比特币持仓维持为零。也就是说，这家公司的“比特币净增持”，长期是 0。
这个数字放在行业里，相当扎眼。
过去两年，“囤币”几乎成了上市矿企和持币公司的标准动作：把挖出来的币留在资产负债表上，既是看涨押注，也能在币价上涨时美化账面。Bitdeer 反其道而行——挖矿产出直接变现金，一枚不留。它上一次出现在“持仓增长”的新闻里，还是 2025 年 9 月，当时它宣布持仓增至约 1966 枚。如今归零，等于把两年的囤币叙事整个翻篇。
为什么敢这么干？先看它的家底。
Bitdeer 2026 年 6 月的运营数据相当能打：比特币产量同比增长 388%，达到 990 枚；自挖算力 73 EH/s，自挖矿机规模 24.3 万台。$BTC BTC 82600，ETH 2487，XRP 1.38：今天这仨走的不是同一个故事
今天主流币别看都红绿差不多，逻辑完全不一样。
BTC 约 82625 美元，周末摸过 84000 又回来，说明 84000 上方抛压真有，但 82000 又有人接。大饼现在是“宏观晴雨表”：美债 10 年收益率在 5.24% 附近，美元强，它就不敢乱冲；但只要美股风险偏好回来，它又第一个被买。
ETH 约 2487 美元，跟 BTC 高度相关，但弹性更大。BTC 跌 1%，它经常跌 1.4%——今天新闻里就是“比特币跌超 1%，以太坊跌超 1.4% 报 2493”。也就是说，ETH 现在吃的是“同一份宏观饭”，但胃更浅，容易吐。
XRP 约 1.386 美元，涨 0.38%，不算猛。它现在不是纯加密叙事，更多是“法律/支付/机构采用”的慢变量。短线资金没那么疯，但也没崩，属于那种“你追高不舒服，跌破反而不敢空”的票。
今天别把三个币当同一个品种做。BTC 看宏观，ETH 看弹性和止损，XRP 看横住能不能换量。#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 网格小机器人打卡更新✅，现在已经跑了6天10小时啦🥰
网格本身依旧很努力，网格收益来到+0.77%，累计套利次数冲到598次，每天差不多稳定93次来回套利，只要价格在格子里面震荡，它就会乖乖赚取价差，干活一点没有摸鱼！
但是行情继续往下走咯😮💨，价格从上次截图的123.94跌到现在120.69，离启动价131.88越来越远。
小机器人还是坚守指令，价格往下就继续买入加仓，冰箱里面又新添了好多还来不及吃掉的小菜🥬，未配对浮亏扩大到-6.81%！
网格辛辛苦苦赚来的一点点小钱，完全扛不住持续新增的库存损耗，整体总收益率掉到了-6.04%，比上次又加深了亏损😭ETH（以太坊）
ETH $2,487
宏观：BTC 回落至 82,600 附近，ETH 相对 BTC 继续走弱（ETH/BTC 近 20 天约 -4%），资金并没有从比特币轮动到以太坊，这是它最弱的一环。
技术：今晨北京时间 05:00 那一小时单独跌 1.4%，直接击穿 2,510 关键支撑，最低 2,482；1H RSI 只有 26（超卖），但价格已在 1H 的 MA20/MA50/MA200 全部下方——破位已经成立。
看点：2,510 已从支撑翻成压制，反抽到 2,510–2,535 收不回去就仍是下跌中继；下方 2,470 是本轮反弹起点、最后一道近端支撑，失守直奔 2,406（10 月 8 日崩盘低点）。$ETH ETH is now at 2447. Don’t just look at the number; look at which “battlefield” it’s on.
Brothers, ETH is quoted around 2487–2493 USD outside today, but many are focused on the 2447 whole number. Why? Because 2400–2450 is the short-term bullish defense zone. If it breaks, it’s likely to drop to 2350–2380; if it holds, there’s a chance to test 2500+ again.
Today isn’t just “ETH playing by itself,” macro factors are pulling it: the US Dollar Index is hovering around 102.5, and Fed’s Harker hawkishly said “interest rates need to rise further.” The market partly believes there’s a 79.5% chance rates won’t move in October, but also fears a 20.5% chance of a rate hike surprise at the October 27–28 meeting. At times like this, ETH is easiest to shake out: it rises and someone sells, it falls and someone buys.
Don’t get emotional in trading: 2447 is not a “must-buy,” it’s an “observation point.” If it really moves, wait for 2447 to hold on a rebound with volume, or if it breaks 2400 and then fails to reclaim it on a rebound, then talk about a weakening trend. ETH is no longer a junk coin logic; it’s the “risk asset among risk assets.” When the Fed coughs, it sneezes first. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$BLUR top accounts are more bullish, positions are more bearish, divergence narrowing mainly from the account side. Bullish accounts ratio 59.4%→55.7%, bullish positions ratio 41.7%→41.3%; gap narrowed by 3.32 percentage points.
$BOME top accounts are more bullish, positions still bearish. Bullish accounts ratio increased by 1.8 percentage points, bullish positions ratio increased by 0.06 percentage points, still at 47.2%.🚨 Alert! Ledger hardware wallets suffer supply chain attack (malicious chip implanted)
Ledger confirms that some devices sold through Southeast Asia authorized distributor (CryptoBilis) were tampered with in the supply chain, with unauthorized hardware modules implanted!
⚠️ Attack methods and threats:
Highly covert: The malicious implant retains the original secure chip, perfectly bypassing Ledger's official Genuine Check.
Mnemonic theft: During user wallet initialization, the module captures the mnemonic displayed on the screen and quietly transmits it via a built-in cellular module.
💥 Impact and losses:
Hundreds of wallets have been emptied, with estimated losses reaching $70 million – $93 million+.
Some community reports indicate the risk may not be limited to this single distributor channel.
ℹ️ Official response: Ledger emphasizes that its official system and devices sold directly on the official website are unaffected. However, this incident has severely shaken supply chain trust in the self-custody industry.
🛡️ Security advice:
Always purchase hardware wallets only through official direct channels; do not rely on third-party authorized dealers.
Regularly inspect device casings for signs of resealing or tampering.
#Ledger调查东南亚经销商渠道资金损失 #Crypto #Cybersecurity #HardwareWallet #BlockchainSecurityThis account has fully closed its ONDO long position, exiting with 330,000 USD at an average price of 0.467429. Closing the position does not mean a bearish view; let's see if they open a new position again.
ONDO trader closed long | Account 52c8e6 | Position change 329,210 USD
Average execution price 0.467429 · Position after change 0 USD · Leverage 3x
$ONDO $BTC was excited for nothing. I saw Bitcoin rise to 550,000, and I thought I was going to get rich quickly, but it turned out to be an OK bug.Woke up early to a harsh reality, currently floating at a loss of -41.35U. Stared at the screen for a while, sighed deeply, and decided to let it be, really exhausted mentally.
🍂 $ETH: All profits gone, plunged into hell.
Entry price 2,501.22, current price 2,447.98, 20X long position, huge loss of -53.23U (-42.56%). The +62U earned a couple of days ago is completely wiped out, breaking below 2500 directly. Liquidation price 2,386, feeling powerless watching it.
🌧️ $TRX: The dragging anchor on the brink of despair.
Entry price 0.3353, current price 0.3286, 20X long position, floating loss of -10.04U (-39.96%). Continuous decline with no rebound, just a step away from liquidation price 0.3209, no strength left to struggle.
☀️ $BTC: The only lifeline.
Entry price 82,544.12, current price 81,813.17, 20X short position, profit +21.92U (+17.71%). The market finally crashed, the short position barely recovered some ground, liquidation at 86,341.
Brothers, close the app, have some breakfast, get a good rest. Life is yours, let it be, good morning everyone.👇
$BTC $ETH $TRX
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what to watch for in the October 15 earnings report? Stop sleeping, wake up quickly, 82000 is gone
I jumped out of bed and opened the OKX app.
$BTC 81778, down 2.28% overnight.
I bottom-picked at 82000 last night, now I'm standing on the edge of an abyss.
I'm not the only one having this morning. I checked, 512 million liquidated in 24 hours, bulls account for 84%, 122,262 people are sleepless with me.
The worst is Binance's 9.65 million BTC long position, liquidated at 81772. Whales and retail investors, same treatment this morning.
$ETH 2447, down 3.49%, funding rate turned negative, shorts start paying. Total network open interest shrank from 142.3 billion to 138.8 billion, leverage is being cleared.
The off-exchange fire hasn't died out: crude oil 105, US Treasury yield 5.3%, ETFs ran 680 million last week.
Key points:
1. I think breaking below 82000 is not a pullback, it's macro bloodletting plus stop-loss stampede. Even whale positions got liquidated, this path is full of bull corpses.
2. Ethereum funding rate turning negative, extreme pessimism is often the eve of a rebound. Bottom picking is okay, but don't use leverage, I certainly don't dare.
3. ZEC dropped 9.31% catching down, the altcoin falls first. Before tomorrow's CPI release, I choose to stay out and watch.
I closed the app, decisively don't want to watch the market, decided to have breakfast first and get ready to work hard.
What about you, do you still dare to open positions today? The window outside brightened, others greeted the morning light to start a new day, while I stared at the devastated market, my hands and feet cold. The account shows an unrealized profit close to 600U, yet I feel a bone-chilling cold.
$BTC (The cold bloodsucking machine)
Entry average price 85,763, current price 81,857.
Isolated margin setup, unrealized profit 285.49U, ROI 91.07%.
The big coin smashed through 82,000, the defense line far away at 89,753. Extremely safe, yet it became the shackle locking my warmth. That bearish candle is filled with others' wails.
$ETH (The bleeding MVP)
Entry average price 2,712.23, current price 2,449.35.
Isolated margin setup, unrealized profit 305.72U, ROI 193.84%.
So tragic! Ethereum plummeted, shorts earned nearly double. This is the most dazzling record in the account, and also the abyss of others' flesh and blood.
$DOGE (The last warmth being strangled)
Entry average price 0.08427, current price 0.082228.
Isolated margin setup, unrealized loss 2.42U, ROI -48.44%.
Amid the chaos, I used the remaining 5U to lay out a tiny bit of faint goodwill, trying to find a trace of warmth. Reality is ruthless, even this last innocence is to be crushed.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE
#CPI and PPI announcements imminent, interest rate hike expectations face test
#Russia-Ukraine may reach "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, what highlights remain for the October 15 earnings report? Once shouting slogans of unwavering loyalty to SK Hynix and Samsung, the outlook now seems less optimistic.
Some data:
1. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) has dropped a cumulative 22% in the second half of this year, becoming one of the worst-performing major stock indices globally.
2. This year, foreign investors have net withdrawn as much as $131 billion from Korean stocks, the largest withdrawal scale in all of Asia. Among them, Samsung's foreign ownership ratio has fallen to 46.38%, the lowest in 18 years since the 2008 financial crisis; SK Hynix's foreign ownership has also dropped below 50%.
3. Samsung and SK Hynix's combined $41 billion stock buyback plan is supporting the market floor. However, the buyback progress has already exceeded 80% and is expected to conclude by mid-October.
4. The average daily trading volume in the Korean market has plummeted 70% from the peak in late May, retail investors' outstanding margin loans have decreased from 38.6 trillion KRW to 33 trillion KRW, and securities account balances have also shrunk significantly.
Speculative rotation, refusing to pay for the last feast. $SAMSUNG $SKHYNIX Sharing a spot slow-wealth framework! 🧭
For steady progress, keep only $BTC, $ETH, BNB, SOL in the main portfolio. These leaders have strong consensus and good liquidity, more reassuring than chasing small coins. 🪙
Profit relies on cycles, not frequent trading. Buy in batches during bear markets, sell in batches during bull markets, wait 2-3 years for trends, aiming for 5-8x returns. 📉➡️📈
To raise the ceiling, learn some candlestick charts, do swing trading on weekly charts, target 8-12x; when the trend is clear, try small positions in sector leaders, exit if wrong. ⚖️
Two bottom lines:
① When the market is overheated and positive news floods in, take profits in batches to lock in floating gains. 💸
② Avoid contracts and high leverage; one liquidation means zero. 🚫
Spot trading, spare money, patience, and discipline are needed to survive bull and bear markets. 🌱
This is just a personal approach, not investment advice. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation Coin Watch Morning Report 2026.10.13
BTC $81,789｜ETH $2,446｜SOL $105
As of October 13, 2026, the crypto market accelerated its decline, with the three major coins simultaneously hitting recent lows. ETF funds have fully withdrawn, awaiting CPI guidance.
📊 Major Asset Market
BTC: Around $81,789**. Total network open interest is **$55.05 billion, up slightly 1.28% in 24H. Price is falling while open interest rises, shorts are adding positions. Binance rate +0.0019%, OKX +0.0066%.
ETH: Around $2,446**, breaking below the whale liquidation zone lower boundary. **$2,401 is the bulls' lifeline; breaking it will trigger $553 million long liquidation. Binance rate -0.0033%, OKX -0.0017%, shorts dominate.
SOL: Around $105**, 24H liquidations total **$10.89 million, longs account for 94%, bulls are suffering the harshest unilateral washout. Open interest $7.01 billion, down 3.91% in 24H, deleveraging continues.
💡 Trading Suggestions
BTC: No rush to bottom-fish, wait for volume expansion and stabilization signals near $80,000.
ETH: $2,401 is the lifeline; strictly exit if broken.
SOL: Do not chase shorts, wait for open interest to stabilize and rates to turn positive before reassessing.
Keep low leverage and control positions before CPI release; avoid premature speculation. Building an AI-weighted moonbag not names with “AI” in the ticker, projects with real usage behind them.
$TAO $NEAR $RENDER $LINK $SOL all still 64-83% below their ATHs. Not a call to buy the dip, just where these sit on the monthly chart right now.
The idea small size, long hold, forget about it until the next cycle tells a different story.$NEAR has already entered the oversold zone, but "it's time to rebound" and "it has bottomed out" are completely different things.
Current price is 5.038, 24h -14.16%; 1-hour is weak, 4-hour is weak, volume is about 1.01 times the average volume of the last 20 bars.
I break it down into two scenarios: A, breaking through 6, short-term structure confirmed; B, falling below 5.007, original judgment invalid, next observation point shifts to 4.445.
No preset answers, just watching which condition happens first. Which scenario do you think is more likely to occur first, A or B?
The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.Macro Summary Part 3 This Week — The U.S. Stock Market Q3 Earnings Season Officially Kicks Off! This week features earnings reports from U.S. banks, ASML, and TSMC, representing three key links in the AI industry chain: capital supply, semiconductor equipment, and advanced chip sanctions. The quality of bank earnings reports will determine whether the environment for AI capital expenditure is abundant; ASML, as a core equipment manufacturer, decides on key technologies, equipment capital expenditure, and capacity expansion speed; while TSMC is responsible for providing capacity, yield rates, product pricing, and packaging, determining the actual supply capacity and manufacturing cost of AI chips. #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a record high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? Therefore, the earnings reports of these three sectors will be the key "first shot" of the U.S. stock market Q3 earnings season. Whether they start off well will determine the market's valuation adjustments for subsequent companies. Especially under the current macro pressure of global inflation plus high long-term bond yields, a curious phenomenon emerges: strong earnings companies versus high risk-free returns. How should capital choose? Should it pay for companies? First, it looks at whether the industry environment is healthy, then whether individual earnings are strong, only then will capital pay for the current valuations. For U.S. banks, currently in a phase of high long-end interest rates plus continued AI capital expenditure expansion, earnings reports should be analyzed by focusing on loan growth, net interest income/net interest margin, investment banking and debt capital markets, credit loss provisions, and management guidance. The core is to see whether the current macro environment, while boosting bank profits, is beginning to suppress corporate financing and credit expansion.Overall, the account looks pretty good today. The two short positions on $ETH and DOGE are still held, with comfortable profits. Just opened a long position on BTC, currently a slight loss.
$DOGE: Entry price 0.09984, current price 0.09504, full position 20X leverage, unrealized profit 624U, ROI 101%. This position has been held for several days, steadily going down without much adjustment. Continuing to hold the short, target first at 0.09, will consider exiting once reached.
$ETH: Entry price 2739.79, current price 2675.86, full position 20X leverage, unrealized profit 223U, ROI 49%. Was still underwater yesterday, but turned positive today, dropped smoothly, continuing to hold looking at 2600.
$BTC: Entry price 84407.31, current price 84302.30, full position 20X leverage, unrealized loss 17U, ROI -2.49%. Newly opened long position, just entered near the cost line, holding to observe. As long as BTC doesn't fall below 83000, no big problem; upper target is 86000.
Summary: Shorts are for making money, longs are for testing the waters, overall the account is still in the green. Trading doesn't need to be complicated; hold on if the direction is right, don't panic with small positions when underwater. That's it for today, will check again tonight for opportunities.
#CPI and PPI releases imminent, interest rate hike expectations face test
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, what to watch in the October 15 earnings report?
#Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation For blockchain projects, rewards and ecosystem activities do not guarantee token price increases. Participants need to consider transaction fees, time, token depreciation risks, and liquidity withdrawal capability. Increase: Price breaks resistance with volume and actual demand improvement. Decrease: Losing support while altcoin cash flow weakens. What to do: Calculate net profit after fees, not just the number of tokens received. Perspective: Realized profit is more important than the number of tasks completed. $NEAR #NEAR #Airdrop #CryptoIs it still time to roll the position now? I really regret not doing it earlier!
Seeing ZEC's big bearish candle directly smashing through 1162, my heart is truly bleeding.
It's not because it dropped, but because I hate myself!
Clearly, when it was above 1300, I was sure it couldn't go higher, so why didn't I dare to be bolder and roll the position?
Now looking at the 1354% profit in my account, others envy it, but I only feel regret.
In this bearish trend, I got some gains, but because of fear, I missed out on the fattest piece!
Why am I so sure this drop isn't over yet?
Check out the latest fundamentals: ZEC's NU7 upgrade plan has sparked concerns that v4 transactions might be disabled.
Privacy coins fear protocol instability the most, and this basically shakes its technical foundation!
The main players are using this news to wipe out retail investors who were shouting "bullish quick recovery."
Look at the 4-hour chart: from 1384 down to 1112, then rebounded to 1349, and now turning down again to 1162.
This is not bottom building; it's the main players repeatedly pumping and dumping, tricking hopeful bulls to get slaughtered one wave after another.
Now retail traders are scared and rushing to short, the long ratio plummets, but this actually shows the real panic selling isn't over yet.
The major trend has completely turned bearish
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#InstitutionsKeepPositioning, why is BTC still under pressure? When will this big bearish candle end?
I still can't see the end.
At least not yet.
What I see now is that other major altcoins are falling less than BTC.
Just like before when the market was rising.
During the rise,
major altcoins led BTC up,
most altcoins could outperform BTC,
but this time,
most major altcoins are falling even worse than BTC.
This is value reverting.
Where it will revert to,
I don't know.
We can only wait and see.Japan's current "wave of bankruptcies" is not a single crisis but a combination of cost shocks + labor shortages + interest rate normalization + external shocks + population aging, which together have crushed the most vulnerable small and medium-sized enterprises first. 1. Core reasons 1. Sharp rise in prices and import costs - Long-term depreciation of the yen → imports of food, energy, raw materials, and components become more expensive. - However, many small and medium enterprises lack bargaining power and dare not pass all costs onto customers, squeezing profits from both ends. - Cases of bankruptcy "due to high prices" rose significantly in 2025 and continued to increase in the first half of 2026. 2. Labor shortage + forced wage increases - Declining birthrate and aging population shrink labor supply, hitting catering, construction, nursing, transportation, and software outsourcing the hardest. - Large companies can raise wages to attract workers; small and medium enterprises also raise wages to retain staff, resulting in "labor costs rising faster than profits," causing cash flow collapse. - The first half of fiscal 2026 saw record highs in bankruptcies "due to labor shortages" and "due to inability to find successors." 3. Bank of Japan exits zero interest rate policy, raising financing costs - Previously, low interest rates allowed many inefficient companies to "hang on half-alive"; - Now with rising rates (around 1.25% mentioned in 2026), banks no longer lend without limits, and zombie companies begin to be cleared out. - Increased interest expenses deliver a fatal blow to small companies already struggling to break even. 4. U.S. trade200 million liquidation, longs account for 70%! I'm still holding on, just one step away from liquidation, how about you?
Brothers, as of October 13th, 8:30 AM.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $195 million, with longs liquidated at $143 million, accounting for 73.31%. $ETH leads with $58.14 million liquidated, longs account for 64%; $BTC liquidated $54.89 million, longs account for 78%; $ZEC liquidated $15.07 million, shorts account for 59%—ZEC is the only coin where shorts liquidated more than longs, because the earlier short squeeze was too intense, causing a short squeeze stampede counterattack.
Looking at my positions: BTC long -240%, ETH long -92%, ZEC long -115%, only CL short +16% is holding up. I was almost one of that 73.31%.
But I won't cut losses. The reason is simple: CPI hasn't been released yet. If the CPI cools down on October 14th, short covering will give all deeply trapped longs a chance to escape. If CPI exceeds expectations, then I'll accept the loss.
Holding positions is not heroism; it's preserving chips before data release and decisively admitting mistakes after data disproves your position.
Are you among that 73.31% of liquidated longs? Do you plan to hold until CPI or cut now?
Fortunes rotate; after longs get liquidated, will shorts be next?
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test "The sharp pull-up at dawn, who chased to the high ridge?"
$BTC surged to 84,500 then quickly fell back to 83,800; ETH rose from 2,530 to 2,580, then dropped back to 2,520. One false breakout, one real drop, the market is full of drama.
1-hour chart: BTC's red bars remain, DIF at 188.3, MACD at 3.9, golden cross still alive; but the J value has slipped to 42.7, momentum quietly loosening. Upper boundary at 84,550, lower boundary at 83,350, break whichever side, follow that side. ETH also has a golden cross, J value at 54.2, upper boundary at 2,588, lower boundary at 2,498.
Key levels to watch: BTC must hold above 83,800 to recover; if it breaks 83,350, look for 82,800; ETH holding 2,500 means consolidation, losing 2,498 points to 2,450.
Early morning rallies are the easiest to deceive; without volume and without holding steady, chasing in means taking the bag. Don't let a single bullish candle change your view, wait for breakout confirmation before acting.
For personal observation only, not investment advice.$ZEC has been oversold in the short term, showing a slight stop in the decline and a small rebound. The large range above is mostly trapped positions, creating heavy resistance.
The price has dropped sharply in one direction with strong downward momentum. Although there is a small rebound after the oversold condition in the short term, the overall trend has already weakened. The rebound is most likely a correction within the downtrend.
Those who just entered are now trapped. Teachers, how much do you think it will pull back, or will it continue to fall?凄惨，太凄惨了。
早上还在算着552U的浮盈，现在总浮亏938U。这哪是交易，这是被市场按在地上反复摩擦。
看一眼这满目疮痍的账户：
$ETH：浮亏539U，持仓已加至8.245个，现价2449，强平价2400。距离爆仓不到2%。机构还在持续往交易所转移ETH，这是最让我绝望的信号。
$DOGE：浮亏317U，现价0.0821，强平价0.0813。距离爆仓仅剩1%！这是全场最致命的定时炸弹。狗狗币的高贝塔特性在下跌中暴露无遗，任何一次插针都能让我直接归零。
$BTC：浮亏81U，现价81818，大哥也守不住8.2万了。中东局势骤然升级，油价飙升推高通胀预期，ETF单日流出4.87亿美元，10月14日CPI数据公布在即。宏观面全是利空。
昨晚还在幻想着“柳暗花明”，今天就被现实扇醒了。20倍杠杆下，所谓的“扛单”和“抄底”，不过是在悬崖边闭着眼睛往前迈步。DOGE和ETH的强平线已经贴在脚底，现在不是考虑赚多少的问题，是能不能保住本金的问题。
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ The market is under pressure, with a bearish capital flow. BTC is currently around 81,990, ETH has fallen below 2,500, down approximately 2.1% and 1.1% respectively in the last 24 hours. Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $678.9 million, ETH a net outflow of $542 million, both the worst recent performances. On the macro level, CPI and PPI data are about to be released, the Fed's September minutes are hawkish, and overall risk appetite remains cautious.
BTC technicals are bearish. The price has fallen below the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, with the 200-hour MA at 83,877 forming a key resistance above. On-chain data shows that $84,000 to $85,000 is the largest cost concentration area, forming the main resistance zone; $77,000 to $79,000 is the core support zone below. Strategically, do not chase shorts; wait for CPI release to confirm direction. If the price pulls back to around 81,300 and stabilizes with a 15-minute level stop-fall signal, a light long position can be tried, with a stop loss below 80,800 and a target of 82,800. If a rebound to the 83,300 to 83,500 resistance zone fails to break out with volume, it is a short-term short opportunity.
ETH technicals are weaker. The 15-minute level just experienced a sharp drop; ETF outflows and large on-chain sell-offs resonate, with F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun transferring 2,160 ETH to exchanges, miner address transfers usually seen as sell signals. The current price is trapped between the support zone of 2,444 to 2,478 and the resistance zone of 2,548 to 2,648.#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
$BTC The biggest market suspense this week centers on the upcoming US September CPI and PPI inflation data releases.
With the Federal Reserve's policy meeting approaching at the end of the month, these two inflation reports will directly reprice expectations for rate hikes and cuts, causing sharp volatility in crypto, gold, and risk assets.
What to watch in the two data sets
CPI (Wednesday evening) — Consumer inflation
The market's most focused core indicator, reflecting prices of goods and services consumed.
If the reading rises again, it indicates persistent inflation, and the market will reprice the likelihood of rate hikes. US Treasury yields and the dollar will strengthen, directly suppressing risk assets.
If inflation falls, tightening pressure eases, providing a basis for risk asset recovery.
PPI (Thursday) — Upstream industrial inflation
A leading indicator of factory raw material and energy costs.
A rising PPI means upstream cost pressures are high and will eventually pass through to consumer CPI; a falling PPI indicates inflation pressure is easing at the source.
Only by combining both data sets can we see whether inflation is truly cooling or just a temporary illusion.
Current market situation
After last week's pullback, the market is merely undergoing a correction after being oversold, not a trend reversal.
With no major data early in the week, the market enters a phase of expectation games, with neither bulls nor bears initiating major moves. Oscillations and shakeouts will be the main theme.
BTC is stuck between resistance and support, with much of the intraday price movement reflecting capital testing the waters; false breakouts and traps are common.
Brothers, what are your thoughts on tomorrow night's data…To be honest, when I discussed with him, I did feel this way too. Bitcoin and Ethereum often fluctuate sideways, and the trend is sometimes not obvious at all, which can be confusing. Even when a trend emerges, if you chase it then, the volatility is not that big anymore. Unlike altcoins, when a trend starts there, if you chase it, there's at least a 10%-15% volatility range to follow.Someone privately asked: Bitcoin dropped two points, now at 81975, is it a good time to buy the dip?
Let me do the math for you: 82000 is resistance above, 81750 is support below, with only 250 points of space in between.
If you buy in now, your stop loss should be at 81500, risking 475 points; the target is 82000, only gaining 25 points. This risk-reward ratio isn’t trading, it’s just giving money to the market.
I used to do this foolish thing: buy when it drops, get stuck, hold on, then cut losses when I can’t hold anymore. That’s how I lost 200,000 U.
The correct approach: wait for 81750 to break before deciding the next move, or wait until 82000 truly holds before following. Don’t trade in between; missing out is not shameful.
With a small 5000 U position, always use stop loss, never hold through losses. Trading doesn’t mean catching every move, just the ones you understand.
$BTC
#Institutions continue to position, why is BTC still under pressure? $ #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed Live trading record day 183!
The data hasn't come out yet, but the knife has already fallen.
CPI and PPI hang overhead, funds choose to retreat first, and risk-off sentiment directly pushes the market into defense mode. The current rebound looks more like a breather after a sharp drop, not a turnaround.
$BTC reported at 82832, smashed down with a big bearish candle in 1 hour, followed by only a slight weak recovery. The price is still suppressed by all EMAs, the bearish framework remains intact.
RSI6 is at 38.2, MACD green bars continue to expand, selling pressure is still pouring out. The upper resistance at 83240 is not reclaimed, so no short-term strength reversal; the lower support at 82348 is a buffer for now. The current upward move is considered a pullback.
$ETH reported at 2529, continues to follow BTC, stuck below EMA55, RSI6 at 38.66, also weak. The upper resistance is 2548, the lower support is 2512. Its own elasticity is insufficient; direction still depends on BTC.
$SNDK reported at 1492. Down 7.34% in 24 hours, volume breakout, all short-term moving averages lost, RSI6 dropped to 20.6, oversold but oversold. However, sentiment in the storage sector has worsened. Resistance above is 1555, support below is 1467. Selling pressure is not fully digested; the rebound should be seen as a repair, not a bottom.
Weak consolidation after a big drop, rebound quality is low, blindly bottom-fishing is risky. Focus on whether BTC can retake 83240.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed Before the market opens, take a look at the chessboard: placing these twelve pieces—Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, SpaceX—at once on Solana's grid lines is not a simple pawn advance; it's castling the king and rook of traditional finance directly onto the opponent's home ground. Behind each token is a one-to-one backed real equity, with dividend rights and voting rights—note, these are not fake “shadow pieces” like CFDs, but real physical pieces truly placed on the board. This move is heavy and extremely risky.
As someone used to counting squares in endgames, the first thing I see is not the list of targets but how many empty squares remain on the liquidity chessboard. The biggest fear in asset tokenization is not an ignored opening but a standoff in the midgame—when dividend distribution, voting rights exercise, and redemption channels are all under threat simultaneously, who guarantees the board won't collapse? Securitize uses registered broker-dealer settlement, pegged to USDC, effectively adding a moat for itself, but the deeper the moat, the narrower the drawbridge for exit. Redemption can hold temporarily, but it cannot withstand everyone demanding cash out simultaneously when market sentiment shifts abruptly—this is a classic token redemption trap; it looks like the pieces are balanced, but the initiative has already changed hands.
Then look at the phrase “allowing qualified investors in the market”—these five words are restrictive rules on the chessboard. Qualified means not everyone can place pieces; liquidity is naturally cut. The not-yet-launched digital trading venues and subsequent settlement channels are still unlit squares; the game hasn't reached there yet, and any premature celebration is a rookie mistake.
The real highlight is the linkage between US stocks and these twelve tokens. If targets like XEWY form a high-pressure hedge with US stock spot markets, token premiums and discounts become the pawn promotion in the endgame—one step difference decides win or lose. My judgment is: whether this model can succeed depends not on technology but on whether market makers are willing to hold their positions under redemption pressure. If willing, it’s a solid midgame advantage; if not, it’s forced piece sacrifice.
The layout is complete; the midgame struggle has just begun. #securitize12stocksDay 15 of Quantitative Scanning
Current assets: ¥1460.93
$BTC officially adopted a brand-new execution approach yesterday. During the day, it maintains approximately one full market scan per hour, capturing RSI reversal signals followed by a secondary screening to choose the right entry timing. From the logic of signal capture, the overall direction is correct, and most trades during the day are profitable.
$ETH took small profits on winning trades; losing trades were stubbornly held without a rigid exit rule. Positions looked stable before sleep, but unfortunately, the market suddenly dropped sharply overnight, causing passive drawdowns on overnight holdings.
$ZEC coincided with a collective market crash yesterday. Under extreme conditions, the account's drawdown remained controllable without catastrophic losses. The strategy is beginning to take shape, but there is still significant room for improvement in risk-reward ratio and risk control rules. Whether the strategy is viable long-term still needs repeated verification over time, gradually refining the details.Look at that load-bearing structure called Grain Management being completely pulled out, and the three main pillars of AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon simultaneously sank by nearly six percentage points — this isn’t market sentiment shaking, this is someone about to lay down a whole new foundation right next to the existing city skyline.
The nationwide 800 MHz spectrum acquired by SpaceX is essentially an old plot of land that others have held onto for many years. It itself generates no value, like a vacant lot without construction plans. What really made me sit up straight in front of the blueprints is this: this land combined with the low-earth orbit satellite network above it forms a complete vertical load-bearing system for the first time — from ground base stations to near-earth orbit, from physical fiber optic cables to radio frequency beams, a person can stand simultaneously on the structure of two floors. What operators used to pride themselves on was that nationwide underground duct network and towers, which were reinforced concrete poured over decades, extremely dense, with a very deep moat. But now someone isn’t competing on how thick your walls are; they are changing the structural system.
But I want to point out something all architects understand: building a skyscraper, the most expensive part is never the steel, but the foundation and construction timeline. Spectrum is just a permit, satellites are just tower cranes, the real factor deciding whether this building can be topped out is the cash flow, the post-tensioned prestressing tendon. Starlink Mobile needs to supply the building simultaneously from space and ground, the capital expenditure curve required is not a slope, it’s an almost vertical cliff. The current collapse in old operators’ stock prices reflects not their fear of losing residents today, but their worry that once this new blueprint starts construction, the entire industry’s cost-sharing structure will have to be recalculated.
Look again at that derivative structure marked $xEWY, hanging in the podium of the US stock market building, shaking together with the spire. The connection method of this type of asset is a soft connection, with no independent load-bearing; the wind transmits through it. The real judgment anchor point is not on it, but on when that spectrum permit lands, whether the launch pace can hold up, and whether the user growth beam can hang before the interest cost.
When evaluating a project, don’t look at the renderings, look at the specifications and spacing of every rebar in the cross-section. What SpaceX is delivering now is an extremely ambitious plan; whether it can turn from blueprint to reality depends on whether the construction team is willing to keep investing money in the unseen places.
The pile foundation of this building has already been driven in, while the original three old buildings are still re-measuring their settlement. #starlinkspectrumdealEarly session dropped to $81,803, $BTC retested the low.
Current market shows BTC at $82,134, down 1.9% in 24 hours.
It once bounced to around $83,149 in the early morning but failed to hold and fell back.
Early session further probed the daily low at $81,803, breaking through last night's weak rebound around $82,400.
ETH is currently at $2,466, down 2.7% in 24 hours; SOL down about 4.4%, with even softer elasticity.
Contract funding rate is about +0.003%, almost flat; open interest in the last 24 hours increased by about 1%, but positions have been falling since the early morning peak, more like liquidation by selling off rather than leveraged shorting.
ETF net inflow for the latest day is about $21.1 million; from the 5th to the 9th, there was still a net outflow of about $679 million.
The capital channel hasn't been repaired yet, but the price has already given up the weak rebound at $82,400.
Wednesday still has the US CPI; positions are generally light before the data, so volatility can easily be suddenly amplified.
Short term, watch if $81,800-$82,400 can hold.
If it holds, most likely it will continue to oscillate between highs and lows before CPI.
If it breaks further down, $81,800 will become sensitive first. A record warm and moist airflow is surging into the gold market from the west—about $10 billion of ETF inflows in September, totaling $31 billion for the entire third quarter, lifting holdings by 67 tons to a historic high of 4,256 tons. Yet on October 7, spot gold prices plunged to $4,066 per ounce, marking the lowest point since August 5. The warm and moist airflow accumulates in the mid-levels, while dry and cold northwesterly winds blow at the surface—this is a typical "warm aloft, cold at surface" inversion structure.
The cause of the inversion layer is not mysterious. The dollar's high-pressure ridge continues to strengthen, U.S. Treasury yields keep climbing, futures market long positions are being forcibly liquidated, and the subtropical high pressure firmly suppresses gold prices below the front. Capital is precipitating, but prices are cooling; the two systems are at odds.
What’s more concerning are the energy-driven inflation factors. If traditional energy prices rise again, it means continuously injecting warm advection into the interest rate high-pressure system, forcing it to remain elevated. Interest rates don’t fall, the dollar doesn’t weaken, futures longs aren’t rebuilt, and every ton of ETF accumulation is just piling another layer of snow above the snowline—looking thick but melting fast.
As for the $xDELL stock reflecting the U.S. stock market, it resembles a stratocumulus cloud at the edge of a frontal cyclone: sharing the same macro circulation as gold, dragged by the same strong dollar jet stream, but lacking its own independent convective energy. When gold futures positions are cut, these correlated stocks often feel the gusts first, lagging behind the main cloud system’s movement.
Can ETF demand support gold prices? In the short term, it is a sustained precipitation; in the medium term, it depends on when the interest rate high-pressure ridge retreats eastward and when the dollar jet stream breaks. Currently, all sounding data points to one conclusion: cold advection at the surface still dominates, and the warm moist airflow is temporarily unable to lift the zero-degree layer height.
The next turn in gold prices does not depend on how thick the buying is, but on when the high-pressure ridge releases pressure. #goldetfsvshighratesOn-chain data shows that large addresses have accumulated over 200 BTC around 81800, indicating someone is quietly buying at this level.
But the market looks grim; Bitcoin dropped sharply from 84348 to 81750, falling more than two points in one day. The 82000 round number is being tugged back and forth, and 81750 has become the last line of defense.
I used to panic during such big drops, nervously selling at a loss, only to see a rebound afterward, getting slapped in the face repeatedly. That's how I lost 200,000 USDT.
Now I've learned: I play with a small position of 5000 USDT. If 81750 holds, I lightly try going long, setting a stop loss at 81500, aiming to recover 82000.
If 81750 breaks, I’ll honestly wait and watch, not rushing to bottom-fish; there’s still 81000 below waiting.
Don’t hold onto positions stubbornly; exit at the stop loss. Preserving capital during big drops is much more important than trying to catch the bottom.
$BTC
#BitcoinFallsBelow81K $ #CPIandPPIReleaseImminent,InterestRateHikeExpectationsFaceTest $ETH Ether: First it "stood above 2550 as my main rise," then it dropped back to 2480—don't blame the manipulative traders, this is called "thin weekend trading + pre-CPI deleveraging"
Ether's "strength" is the most deceptive—rising high without volume increase, falling back without buyers stepping in, it's just a fake bullish move by shorts covering.
The three needles that crushed the market afterward:
Spot ETH ETF withdrew nine times in a row, institutional buying hasn't returned, and above 2,535–2,565 is all pressure from stop-loss selling.
High beta characteristic: Bitcoin sideways, Ether kneels first; rebound with low volume, then a plunge with high volume = weak retracement.
Before 20:30 on 10.14 CPI, market makers thin out weekend order books, a single 3 million USDT market order can wipe out the long chasers.
Three lines not to get carried away:
Close above 2,516 on 15m = rebound revival, target 2,550
Break below 2,480 again = 2,442→2,405 (previous low area)
Daily close below 2,405 = bears control, doors open to 2,350 / 2,300
A true reversal is not "just touching 2550," but standing above 2,565 after CPI + ETF stops withdrawing + 10Y yield returns to 5.1%
This thing called Ether: when rising, "I want to lead the altcoin season," when falling, "I'll take the hit for Bitcoin first."
Saying strong at first is emotion, crushing afterward is structure.
2480 is not the bottom, it's the test stone on the eve of CPI.
(Not investment advice · for reference only) $ETH BTC, ETH, SOL subsequent developments? Geopolitics, interest rates, institutional funds, three lines intertwined.
BTC 83700｜ETH 2560｜SOL 112
🌍 Middle East tensions and oil price fluctuations push up inflation expectations, the US dollar is relatively strong, and risk assets are under pressure. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test, possibly becoming a short-term trigger.
💰 Funding conditions are not easy: US spot BTC ETF saw continuous net outflows last week, ETH ETF outflows were about $542 million, SOL ETF ended 14 consecutive weeks of net inflows. A rebound does not mean a full return of funds.
Key observations for the three coins:
📌 $BTC: Is the 83000 support stable? Can 85000 be effectively broken?
📌 $ETH: 2500 support, can 2600 be reclaimed?
📌 $SOL: 110 support, can 115 be broken?
My judgment: Be cautious with short-term rebounds, guard against a second dip; after macro pressure eases and funds return, the market can still reverse.
If BTC alone breaks 85000 while ETH and SOL remain weak, would you dare to follow this rally? #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed The stablecoin narrative is currently one of the core storylines in the crypto space.
Simply put: stablecoins are the on-chain lifeblood of the US dollar. The public chain that can accumulate a large amount of US dollar stablecoins will reap the financial benefits.
1. Old narrative: In the past, people evaluated public chains by TPS, smart contracts, NFTs, GameFi, and which applications were more fun; the new stablecoin narrative: public chains compete based on their ability to accumulate US dollar funds. If a chain has a large circulation of USDT and USDC, can handle RWA, cross-border settlements, and institutional fund flows, that chain has real financial demand.
2. Core highlights of stablecoin public chains: They can directly use stablecoins to pay gas fees without holding volatile native tokens; they focus on bringing US dollar assets on-chain, tokenizing real-world assets (RWA), cross-border payments, and institutional settlements; the more stablecoins accumulated on-chain, the stronger the on-chain transaction volume and DeFi locked funds, enabling the ecosystem to sustain itself.
Representative projects: Celo, AVAX, Frax, Ronin, APT are all pushing the stablecoin ecosystem.
3. Underlying logic of the narrative: The credit of the US dollar is the foundation. As long as the US dollar system exists, the story of US dollar stablecoins will continue. Capital will preferentially flow to public chains that can accommodate US dollar stablecoins. $BTC $ETH current market is closer to a state of "technical weakness + cooling sentiment + rising risk premium." A sharp drop is not a predetermined outcome, but if prices continue to be under pressure, capital outflows expand, and leveraged longs do not significantly shrink, the risk of increased short-term volatility will rise. Conversely, if support at low levels strengthens, capital flows stabilize and prices reclaim short-term moving averages, market pressure may be temporarily relieved. Everything is possible before a clear direction is set. I still remember in 2021, when Amazon announced it would buy $1 billion worth of $BTC, the market immediately surged 20% that day. Such events are very hard to predict. The most important thing right now is to stay at the table!Crypto Circle Morning Express｜10.13
Morning.
$BTC total market cap has climbed back above 4 trillion, up about 5.6% overall in the past 24 hours. Around 216 million USD worth of liquidations occurred network-wide in the last hour, mostly short positions.
A few key points:
1. Binance has compensated 283 million USD to users affected by USDe de-pegging; the previously seen “zero price” in spot was just a display bug, not an actual asset wipeout.
2. Fed voting member Harker stated: policy will shift toward tightening, favoring smaller, more frequent rate adjustments.
3. The UK High Court ruled on the Qian Zhimin (Blue Sky Gree) case: the recovery of 61,000 BTC is subject to Chinese law, involving about 4.1 billion GBP, and victims are unlikely to receive subsequent appreciation.
4. The FSB (Financial Stability Board) warned: global stablecoins have yet to face a major stress test; cross-border regulatory monitoring needs strengthening.
5. HKEX today launched Pando’s second spot SOL ETF, ticker 2831.HK, with a 0.6% management fee, no staking, no leverage.
On trading, QCP’s view: the options market currently shows a mix of defensive and bullish sentiment. If it can firmly break above 87k, the next target is 94k. There is about 180 million USD of sell orders stacked near 84,500, with buy support at 82,000.
This week’s main events remain Powell’s speech and the CPI data.• $ETH BOLL Bollinger Bands: Upper band 2805.54, middle band 2622.92, lower band 2440.29. The current price is just near the lower Bollinger band, indicating a short-term oversold range.
• WMA Moving Averages: The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages are all above the price (2502 / 2523 / 2583), showing a bearish moving average alignment; the daily trend has weakened.
• SAR Red and Green Markers: A large number of S (sell signals) above; recently, continuous S signals appeared at high levels, after which the price fell steadily from the 2806 peak; only a few B buy points in between, representing small rebounds during the downtrend.
• Volume: Increased volume during the decline phase, reduced volume during rebounds, a typical sign that selling pressure exceeds buying.
$ETH is more volatile than $BTC. This chart shows the first pullback after the B-wave rebound peak:
The high was 2806, and after forming a top consolidation platform, it broke downwards.
• Near-term support: 2440 at the lower Bollinger band, which is the current first short-term support.
If this support fails, the next support level is at 2356 (previous low on the chart).
• Near-term resistance: The first resistance is near 2500 (5-day moving average), with stronger resistance at 2622 (middle Bollinger band).Altcoin Market Analysis This Week (Part 1)
This data week isn’t about whether the CPI is high or low,
it’s about whether the altcoin season opens or closes.
The market isn’t focused on the inflation numbers themselves,
but on whether Bitcoin’s money is willing to spill over.
Has altcoin been rising in the past month?
Actually, it’s narrative rotation within a fixed supply game:
AI, RWA, SOL, MEME, L2 each take a turn.
When Bitcoin weakens, ALT/BTC all retrace.
No BTC capital outflow = no foundation for altcoin season.
BTC ETF:
10/7 outflow $484.9M
10/8 outflow $244.1M
Two-day total: -$729M
10/9 inflow $21.1M, less than 3% of the outflow in the previous two days
It’s not a real inflow, just "catching breath after bleeding."
ETH is even more awkward:
ETF continuous net outflow, staking yield ~2.6%, US 10Y Treasury yield 5.3%+.
Institutions calculate:
"With the same money, buying US Treasuries gets you coupon income for free, buying ETH means bearing beta risk."
So ETH is temporarily not an asset, but a cash machine.
It falls hardest when Bitcoin falls, and rises slowest when Bitcoin rises.
Gold/XAUT actually has real buying demand:
Q3 global gold ETF net inflow $31B, a record.
Energy and US Treasury yields suppress it in the short term,
but the stagflation + de-risking logic remains intact.
Once interest rates peak, hard assets will fly before altcoins.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test