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Uniswap officially named Robinhood Chain as the fastest chain to reach $100 billion in trading volume. Robinhood Crypto retweeted the confirmation on the same day, stating that the figure is the fastest ever, not just media hype.
This is cumulative volume, not a single-day spike. The rapid surge is likely due to meme and gambler traffic piling up during the new chain's cold start; protocol fees and UNI holder dividends may not keep pace. The milestone proves liquidity can rise but does not guarantee the moat is secure. Arbitrum's official account also congratulated, indicating competitors acknowledge this achievement.
Don't directly convert the speed record into a valuation re-rating. If within two weeks the chain's weekly Uniswap volume falls below half the peak, or spot price drops below 6.8 and fails to recover, treat this as a cold start report card. Snapshot around 16:06 Beijing time, Binance spot about $7.49, 24h approximately +6.9%.
$UNI
#UNI #Uniswap #cryptocurrency #Báo cáo tài chính của Circle sắp ra mắt, liệu sự tăng trưởng của stablecoin có thể hiện thực hóa lợi nhuận không? The common people voted with their feet; inflation ultimately sent the Democratic Party into Congress. The midterm election results are out, with the Democrats sweeping both chambers, and Trump directly hobbling. Those previously staunchly supportive states flipped blue, basically because supermarket discount goods were snapped up, and oil prices rose higher than milk—people just couldn't make ends meet, so naturally, they voted out the ruling party.
At the moment the results came out, BTC got scared and even dropped below $76,000 because the market feared the Democrats would crack down hard on the crypto industry. But within a few hours, it made a V-shaped recovery back above $78,000. The reason is simple: no matter who wins, once the boot drops, the biggest uncertainty is gone. Capital fears bad news less than it fears not knowing what pitfalls lie ahead.
In the short term, don’t expect the Democrats to hand out sweeteners to the market; those folks have never been friendly to cryptocurrencies, and tighter regulation is a real pressure. But fortunately, the White House is still in Trump's hands; he has veto power to block outrageous bills and can push administrative orders, so there won’t be a catastrophic policy reversal. Both sides will keep tugging, and crypto legislation will most likely turn into a long tug-of-war.
The real key to BTC’s fate has never been who wins the election, but whether the Federal Reserve and the market have enough money. Inflation is still high now, so the Fed can’t immediately turn to easing; if the dollar strengthens, BTC will still have to stay down.
In short, the election just blew away the political fog; what we should focus on next are inflation data and interest rate trends. Whether $78,000 can hold is ten thousand times more important than who won the midterms.The rally looks impressive, but liquidation data suggests a different story.
$BTC saw $33.74M in short liquidations compared to just $6.7M in longs, pointing to a short squeeze rather than strong organic buying pressure.
$ETH followed the same trend, with $34.87M in short positions wiped out. Forced buying fueled the upside, but genuine spot demand is still unconfirmed.
$CORE highlighted how quickly momentum can reverse, with both long and short positions getting liquidated. $ADA ADA holds a market cap of 7 billion USD, but the daily on-chain fees are only $1,400.
Even the turnover of a small village shop is higher.
The community constantly brags about the technology, but on-chain, no one is actually spending Gas to use it.
It's all just existing old holders holding on hard.
Without a real ecosystem to support it, this kind of purely faith-driven inflated market cap can't withstand even a little selling pressure at the bottom.
#ADA
$ADA
👇It's often said that platform tokens rely on burning to support their valuation, but when I actually looked into the cash flows of BNB, HYPE, and OKB, I found they are quite different.
$BNB is the one with real income. Q3 network revenue was $54.2 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54%, but daily active addresses dropped 14% to 2.1 million. Tokenized stock trading volume was $25.6 billion, which looks large, but 80% is concentrated in just one product, QQQB. There were 37 burns totaling 1.646 million tokens, supply compressed to 131.5 million, with a target of 100 million. Although it makes money, the revenue structure is too thin, and currently the burn narrative is insufficient to push the token price up.
$HYPE has the strongest cash flow, with cumulative revenue of $1.34 billion, 97% of fees flowing back to AF buybacks, having already bought $1.26 billion worth of chips. Annualized buyback is 7.5%, P/E ratio is 13, the model is clean. But the unlock on November 6, which will bring about $760 million selling pressure at current prices, is looming overhead, so it's best to wait and see before it lands.
$OKB is the most boring, with no protocol revenue, no L1 narrative, fixed supply of 21 million tokens, and 0% inflation over 90 days. It's a pure deflationary shadow, but in a flat market, it actually highlights value.
Each deflation narrative has its own storyline. Whether there will be sustained buying support really depends on real cash flow and selling pressure.$CORE still needs to play with big coins; at least big coins have inflows. Look at this thing, outflows for 100 days and 90 days, inflows are pitifully low, maybe just 100 million outflow, 5 million inflow 这波拉升更像一场空头挤压，不像真正的买盘在接管。 你看到的是追涨信号，还是又一次被清算数据推着走的FOMO？ 周末复盘清算图的时候，我第一反应是：这不像增量资金进场，更像一场被迫平仓的连锁反应。BTC 这边空头被清掉约 3374 万美元，多头只有 670 万，比例悬殊得有点刺眼。ETH 几乎是同一个剧本，3487 万空头被抹掉。翻译成人话就是：价格是被"强制买回"推上去的，而不是有人心甘情愿在这里建仓。 这就带出一个容易被忽略的点：当上涨主要由空头回补驱动，行情的"燃料"其实是一次性的。空头平完了，推力就断了。真正决定能不能延续的，是现货买盘愿不愿意在这个位置接手，而目前这一点还没有被确认。所以现在的阶段，我更愿意定义成博弈与洗筹的混合体，不是干净的追涨窗口。 CORE 的走势是个很好的提醒：多空两头都被清算，说明节奏切换可以非常快，前一刻还在逼空，下一刻就可能反过来清洗追高的人。这种结构下，山寨的情绪弹性会被放大，涨得急，回撤也会很干脆。风险偏好看似回暖，但底层并不稳，更像是情绪被衍生品杠杆临时点燃。 偏多的路径当然存在：如果现货成交在挤压结束后继续放大，说明是真需求接棒，那这波就不Waiting for the wind is not as good as lying flat first (￣▽￣)ノ
Today, queues at polling stations across the US made me question life, and the results won't be slowly revealed until early Wednesday morning. At times like this, the best move is actually—doing nothing. (:з」∠)
$TRUMP fell the hardest, dropping six points and wiping out all the positions built before the election. It’s the most sensitive to political outcomes; whoever wins could amplify volatility. I didn’t move a single share; touching it before the results is basically gambling with life (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻
$XRP is relatively stable, even slightly up. It depends on who controls the regulatory framework and whether the congressional balance changes—these directly determine the pace of progress. I’m holding my long-term position; that’s where it should be ٩(๑•̀ω•́๑)۶
$DOGE is weak in the middle, following the market’s slow decline with no independent story. Meme coins only follow sentiment during event weeks, don’t expect it to move first. If you want to add positions, wait for the results first (￣▽￣)ゞ
The market before the results is the fairest: no one knows the answer, so no one should move. Waiting for the wind is not as good as lying flat first~ (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $ETH $BTC Is this major rally in mainstream coins a rebound recovery or a bull trap???
The bottom rebound and this wave of gains are mainly because the Democrats took control of both houses, removing the negative overhang. The US stock market's strong rebound even led to a V-shaped recovery for the bottomless pit that is SanDisk. Ultimately, the election is just a short-term fluctuation; the real direction is still determined by the Federal Reserve's interest rates and inflation data. Volatility will still amplify as stimulus is digested, so do not blindly chase orders at this position. Control your position size and wait for a clear stabilization signal before taking action. $SNDK
Mainstream coins have fully absorbed the negative news and have surged in a deep V shape. The key level of the market structure is pushing back; with such gains pre-market, there might still be action before the US stock market opens tonight. Remember not to panic or take chances.
Follow Kaige for continuous in-depth market analysis and capital game logic to help you identify opportunities and avoid risks! #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 Calculate it: for every 1% adverse movement in the nominal position, about one-quarter of the theoretical initial margin will be consumed. This rate of amplified profit and loss is the starting point for how I read this trade.
Core Trader 74 (0x68cb35…02d1e) opened a long ETH position this time with 25x leverage, holding 89.5446 ETH, with a nominal value of approximately $205,500, at a reference price of $2295.5.
① Dividing the nominal value by 25, the theoretical initial margin is about $8,222, excluding fees. I do not interpret the $205,500 nominal value as the amount of principal invested; nominal exposure and principal are accounted separately.
② Roughly calculating 1 ÷ 25, an adverse movement of about 4% approaches the theoretical liquidation distance, corresponding to a reference price drop of about $92. This is not the actual liquidation price; margin mode, additional funding, and maintenance margin requirements will affect the result, but the buffer is clearly thin.
③ The $2295.5 reference price is just a material reference and cannot be directly taken as the average price of the entire position. If this is an add-on, the original average price will affect the overall risk; with current information insufficient, I will not judge the quality of the entry position based on this.
My judgment is that the price tolerance requirement for this long position is more important to watch than the nominal amount. Even if the direction is correct, it may not withstand adverse fluctuations during the process; going forward, I want to observe whether the average price and leverage change together, and I won’t take a large position to bolster my judgment.#On-chain tokenized stock scale hits a new high, traditional financial institutions accelerate layout Sony earnings preview
The whale long-short ratio gap widens, how to identify short-term signals?
31.9% of the whale long-short ratio is on SOL, shorts have already taken floating profits; this signal can explain the oscillation pressure in the 15-minute cycle but cannot confirm a downward breakout. ETH's 24.02% long-short ratio corresponds to the 2291 price level, both longs and shorts are at a loss; it only indicates a stalemate, not an imminent directional choice.
BTC's whale long-short ratio is 20.01%, price 77825, indicator divergence has appeared. Holding this position maintains the original long structure; once broken, the likelihood of a pullback will significantly increase.
Open the position list, check the stop-loss points of short-term positions, and confirm they match your own risk tolerance.
$SOL $ETH $BTC #BTC spot ETF capital outflow, corporate treasury accumulation slows down
$BTC I am temporarily watching. The price and active buy-sell orders have not given a consistent direction yet.
Analysis: BTC faces resistance at the upper cost line of short-term holders, with a pullback observation range between $72,300 and $75,700.
OKX BTC perpetual contracts have had nearly 4 full hours with active buying at 52.9%, open interest increased by 5.34%, and the current funding rate is 0.0088%. Buying and selling forces are close, and changes in open interest do not equal net capital inflow.
The lowest point of the previous 20 hourly candles is 75,690.1, the highest is 78,170.2; only a volume breakout close has directional significance.
Market analysis, for reference onlyUnderstand the current BTC with three numbers
First number: $78,155.90. This is the current price of BTC, 24h +0.91%, last 7 days -3.92%, last 30 days -8.65%. The data speaks: short-term shows signs of stabilization, but the last 30 days still indicate a deep correction.
Second number: 15%. This is BTC's position percentile within the last 30-day range. 15% means it is currently in the lower part of the range, valuation pressure has mostly been released, and the margin of safety is increasing.
Third number: $76,807 ~ $85,561. This is the current key operating range—support at $76,807 below, resistance at $85,561 above. As long as the price stays within this range, it is consolidating; a breakout above $85,561 targets $87,273, a breakdown below $76,807 targets $74,502.
Connecting the three numbers, the conclusion is clear: BTC is currently in a "low-level consolidation" phase, direction unclear, but downside risk is narrowing.
Strategy: sell high and buy low within the range, respond with light positions; increase activity after a volume breakout above $85,561 or breakdown below $76,807.
Numbers don't lie, but they can change. Data is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.Conclusion first: $CC current price is 0.0994, up 5.8% in 24 hours. On October 30, I wrote about it here with the title "The day institutional narrative was loudest, but the coin price was green," at that time it was 0.0958. What really changed: today the SEC recognized Canton Coin as a digital commodity and granted a conditional minting exemption—this is the first time the institutional narrative has regulatory endorsement.
But the three numbers in the wallet are more important.
① Trading volume is still thin. Perpetual 24-hour volume is 2.74 million USD, spot only 1.21 million, 2.3 times difference. The narrative is institutional, but the chips are still retail.
② Funding rate flipped. On November 3 it was -0.0218% (shorts paying longs), today at 12:00 it turned to +0.005% floor price, longs are no longer squeezed.
③ Open interest only rose 2.7%, from 2.629 million to 2.701 million USD. Market cap is 3.97 billion USD, Canton chain TVL is only 13.78 million, accounting for 0.35% of market cap. On-chain business hasn't started yet.
So this rally, leverage hasn't caught up, my previous conclusion needs revision: it's not "$CC is bought by retail," but "$CC still has no on-chain business to buy." It is still 48.8% away from ATH.
Do you believe this is the start of a revaluation, or just another narrative pulse? $CC The President of Iran stated that the Supreme Leader has granted the government certain authority to advance negotiations. This news is worth noting because how far the negotiation representatives can go will affect whether the plan has a chance to continue moving forward.
However, the scope of the authorization has not been fully disclosed, so it cannot be directly interpreted as all key conditions having been approved.
Follow-up news on November 3 still shows that there are differences between the US and Iran regarding the agreement. Diplomatic channels continue to operate, and military tensions have not disappeared. After a previous sharp drop, oil prices have rebounded, showing how sensitive the market is to these changes.
I am more inclined to view this authorization as progress in the negotiation conditions. It may reduce some internal coordination resistance, but it remains to be seen how the US will respond and whether the arrangements can truly be implemented.
The reopening of the Strait involves transportation security and also the trust of both parties in the commitments. Who takes action first and how the other side verifies it—any ambiguity could slow the process.
Repeatedly reviewing this news is indeed exhausting. Every time there is a positive statement, prices move up for a while, only to find that some conditions are still unresolved.
Therefore, I will raise the confirmation standard: both sides must explicitly agree on the same arrangement before seeing if execution begins. Authorization can bring opportunities, but the safe passage of oil tankers is the ultimate result the market needs.
#伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？ Kamino is a major lending protocol on the Solana network with a TVL of about $1.34 billion and active loans around $862 million. The $KMNO token, however, has zero holders revenue. We analyze exactly where the disconnect lies between the protocol's income and the token's value, and what is happening with vesting. Context: Kamino combines three areas: lending, liquidity management, and leveraged strategies. This is not a niche play: the product is in demand by Solana users who need loans and position automation in pools. But the designA few days ago, there was a new project I chose not to touch, but it doubled in a few minutes. Honestly, it hurts not to be involved.
But when I checked the contract, I saw a line: the team can open the pool early at any time, and the opening price is roughly the minting cost.
This means whether it goes up or not depends entirely on the team's mood and the external hype, which I can't judge. So I set a rule for myself: only consider projects where "the pool automatically opens when full" is hardcoded. Earning less once is better than getting hit by an "early pool opening" or the pool never opening and the team running away.
Do you check contract permissions before joining new projects? Or do you just jump in based on hype?
Just a personal note, not investment advice. #NewProjectReview #Web3Security #Cryptocurrency
$BTC Coins that have been recovered but not distributed yet are not considered recovered
$CORE had 68.15 million coins recovered, and the price dropped over 6% that day.
Where did this money come from:
A hard fork moved the attacker’s coins into a recovery address.
The transaction was not rolled back, and the attack record remains on the chain.
Who is placing orders here:
The 68.15 million coins are just sitting in the recovery address, not distributed to the victims.
In other words, this batch of coins can turn into sell orders at any time.
Looking further ahead, the opposing side is waiting for this.
Since the coins haven’t been distributed, the selling pressure hasn’t materialized yet.
The price drop is an early calculation of this.
Only when the recovery address starts transferring out does it truly begin.
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 $CORE #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
USDC's scale is growing, but profits may not necessarily follow. In Q3, the circulating volume was about $74.58 billion, showing moderate growth; analysts expect revenue around $789 million, but EPS is only about $0.38, clearly under pressure. The core issue lies in distribution costs: for every $1 of income Circle earns, about 59 cents go to partners, leaving only about 7 cents net retention, with Coinbase taking the largest share. So don't just focus on circulation volume; what really matters is whether reserve yields and RLDC (revenue after distribution costs) improve. The scale story sounds good, but realizing profits still depends on interest rates and the revenue-sharing ledger.I think it's quite understandable why sports are so popular in on-chain prediction markets. Matches come with their own fan base, the rules are familiar, so you don't have to spend a lot of time studying project documents first. Buying tokens also lets you discuss valuations and narratives, while sports betting is simply about asking who will win, making the entry barrier much lower. But odds aren't just about calculating strength; home team bias and star player popularity can also factor in. When I watch these discussions, I often see them drift off-topic—just a moment ago they were presenting data, and suddenly they're defending the team's history.After the change in the congressional landscape, large-scale fiscal stimulus is hindered, and the Trump-style tax cut/spending agenda is temporarily shelved.
📉 Risk assets: Regulatory pressure on the tech/AI sector increases, facing short-term pressure; however, the presidential veto power can still block major legislation such as tax hikes, with mid-term historical trends leaning upward.
🥇 Gold: Fiscal expansion is limited → US dollar and US Treasury yields decline; policy confrontations intensify → safe-haven demand rises. Dual support strengthens gold prices.
⚔️ Geopolitics: Executive power still dominates foreign and military affairs, and presidents facing domestic obstacles tend to pursue diplomatic breakthroughs, increasing uncertainty rather than reducing it.
In short: Fiscal policy is locked down, diplomacy remains free; gold benefits, geopolitical risks persist.#Anthropic潜在IPO投资者建议估值降至1.5万亿美元
Anthropic's valuation cut from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion—does this cool down the AI frenzy?
Looking at Anthropic's latest S-1/A prospectus data, Q3 single-quarter revenue was $16.96 billion, a year-over-year increase of over 11 times. However, revenue growth quarter-over-quarter sharply dropped from 144% to 47%, and due to high-priced spot computing power constraints, it returned to a loss of $567 million. Along with nearly $900 billion in long-term computing power leases, institutional investors pressing pause is completely reasonable.
High marginal cost of computing power
Q3 computing power accounted for 58% of revenue. The larger the model scale, the more expensive the marginal cost to maintain performance, making it extremely difficult in the short term to run a sound standalone economic model.
Risk prevention for bottom-line guarantees
$69.8 billion in computing power bills must be paid in the next year. If Q4 annualized revenue does not meet expectations, the huge commitments will directly turn into debt burdens.
Subsequent valuation is likely to be set between $1.5 trillion and $1.6 trillion. The biggest winners in capital expenditure remain infrastructure providers such as NVIDIA $NVDA, Amazon $AMZN, and Google $GOOGL. The industry is fully entering a new phase of refined competition on computing power conversion efficiency.
DYOR #CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货 Analyst target price spread 7 times, where is the core anchor point of Circle's financial report?
Many people use revenue growth rate to price, which is a common misinterpretation. The full-year revenue forecast is raised by 10%, but the EPS forecast falls to 1.15, directly halving from last year's 2.35, with institutional disagreement stuck on the profit side.
The financial report will be released in 12 hours, with a 52-week high of 140, and the current price has already significantly retraced. The change in USDC scale is the key; only if it turns positive month-over-month will revenue growth have sustained support. This judgment will become invalid when the financial report is officially released.
Open the position page, calculate the proportion of this asset in your total funds, and confirm whether it exceeds your pre-set position limit.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Non-farm payroll data is about to ignite the market! What BTC fears most might be that both good news and bad news turn into bearish factors.
The U.S. economy is caught in an awkward situation: the October ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5, marking the 10th consecutive month of expansion, but the price index remains high at 75.2; September core PCE year-on-year rose to 3.1%, with inflation rebounding, making it difficult for the Fed to easily pivot to easing. Market bets on a December rate hike once rose to about 84.6%.
Next, the non-farm payrolls will be the key variable. Strong employment could further push up rate hike expectations; a significant deterioration in employment would amplify recession concerns. For BTC, what truly matters is not the number of new jobs itself, but how the data changes rate expectations, the dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields.
Therefore, it is unwise to bet one-sidedly before the data release. Focus on whether non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage growth move in the same direction, then see if BTC can increase volume and choose a direction. During this macro test, controlling leverage and being wary of two-way spikes is more important than guessing the answer in advance. $BTC #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $SNDK This trade has only one thing right: I didn’t short at the spike on 11/2, nor did I freeze at the bottom afraid to catch the fall.
I was watching closely the night the earnings report exploded but it still dropped. The market is pricing in "NAND price peak," I remember that line from Nomura—but oversold is oversold, 1067 is the needle tip, 1070 the lower Bollinger band, 1060 the yearly moving average convergence of three layers, and on 1H with shrinking volume I placed a 75x long at 1079.8 with a stop loss at 1058. Today the sector recovered, sellers held back before the split, pushing it to 1128.6, I got the first leg right.
The foolish part is the half that’s already showing: looking at 338%, my mind is already drawing "if it breaks 1150, look at 1250." That’s a sickness. 1150 is the trapped wall from the crazy money in August, one bullish candle can’t break through it, and betting on a "reversal" with 75x leverage is like trying to melt ice with a match.
Tonight the rules are reset: ① Lock in the breakeven line, never move it down; ② 1150 must hold with volume for a full day, or no adding positions; ③ If it falls back to 1100 and can’t hold, exit immediately, no catching a second knife.
Climbing out of the pit is luck, daring to stop at the wall is progress. I’ve done half of that today, will continue tomorrow. $BTC $ETH #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 BTC is battling around the 50-week moving average
A new variable has emerged in the market
News has surfaced that Trump is internally assessing the worst-case scenario for the midterm elections
There is a possibility that the Democratic Party could take control of both the House and Senate
The previous pricing basis for this round of crypto assets
largely bet on the Republicans maintaining control of Congress
which would lead to favorable crypto regulatory policies
Once control of both chambers switches
policy advancement will be directly hindered
and positive expectations will quickly be discounted
Currently, market volatility is not severe
Funds have not yet started large-scale panic selling
but this has become a key variable hanging over the market
Future prices will continue to swing back and forth with election expectations#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 📂 20U Real Account Record 114
💰 Principal: 20U
📉 This trade's profit: Currently at a floating loss
✅ Cumulative earnings: About 0U
📌 Current position: $UNITREE short position
You reminded me about the 0.77% fee. I recalculated this trade, and after finishing, I felt a chill down my spine.
0.77% is the 4-hour rate, not daily. On Binance, the current fee rate for UNITREE perpetual contracts is about -0.7775% per 4 hours.
Applied to my 20U account, this number looks even more glaring. Even if the short position has only a few hundred U nominal value, the daily fees deducted represent a percentage-level loss relative to the 20U principal. If the direction is right, maybe a little profit; but if the direction grinds for two days, the principal is first heavily eaten by the fees.
And the short squeeze structure is still in place. In the past 12 hours, UNITREE had $1,928,400 in liquidations across the network.
A-share Yushu rose more than 3% today.
So I reconsidered this trade. The short logic hasn't changed: Yushu's 505x P/E ratio, 260.4 billion market cap, G1 commercialization in early stages—these are facts. But the 0.77% fee means the position itself is bleeding. Using 20U principal to bear an annualized 1200% holding cost, time is not on my side.
Either wait for the fee to converge and the short squeeze to weaken before entering, or reduce the position to a very small size and only bet on a brief price inflection. Continuing to "hold and wait for direction" like before, 20U won't last a few days October's $141M in Solana stablecoin-card spending is notable because it points to payments use moving beyond transfers. But KAST and Rain supplied about 93% of activity, so the growth is still highly concentrated. Active users, repeat payment frequency, and retained balances will show whether this is durable adoption.
#SolanaCardSpending141M The hacker who stole 6.3 billion from Binance is desperately trying to convert the stolen funds into Bitcoin.
What he can move now are 970,000 stolen SOL tokens.
The conversion method is quite convoluted: first convert to stablecoins, then transfer to Ethereum to exchange for ETH, and finally use THORChain to convert to Bitcoin.
Four steps across three chains, and in the fastest case, $46 million was converted within an hour.
Why Bitcoin?
Because the Bitcoin pool is the deepest, it can absorb the volume globally, and once converted to Bitcoin, no one can freeze it.
Coins keep changing hands, but with every step, the ledger records another transaction.
But he seems to have forgotten one thing: the ledger cannot be erased.
Tracking companies are watching the live stream in real time,
and the FBI is applying for freezes along the route one by one. The frozen 2.85 billion came from this process.
The more frequently he converts, the faster the remaining funds get frozen.
If these coins are ever sold on exchanges in the future, it will be ironclad evidence.
The Bitcoin he ends up with is actually "money with a name".
It seems that successfully stealing the funds is less than half the battle; the real headache is laundering and cashing out cleanly.Iran delays escalation, but Congress changes hands: Which is riskier, BTC or ETH?
The US midterm elections and the situation in Iran are simultaneously influencing the market. Previously, the market was worried about an escalation of military actions after the election, but Trump then signaled a continuation of negotiations, easing geopolitical risk premiums. However, what truly affects the crypto industry's midterm expectations is that with the Democrats taking control of both houses of Congress, regulatory battles may enter a new phase.
The GENIUS Act has become law and will not automatically expire due to the election; the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate procedural vote in September by 50 to 49, making its passage in 2026 very difficult. The Democrats have gained more powers for hearings, investigations, and subpoenas rather than directly rewriting existing laws.
BTC is mainly driven by US dollar liquidity, ETF funds, and institutional allocation, making it relatively more resilient but not immune to declines; ETH and the DeFi ecosystem are more sensitive to regulatory frameworks, and policy uncertainty may suppress valuation flexibility. The focus going forward will be on regulatory investigations, ETF net flows, and US Treasury yields. Don't mistake geopolitical easing for an all-around positive, nor equate regulatory deadlock simply with a bearish outlook for BTC.
$BTC #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ It seems necessary to pay more attention to the opportunities on Robinhood Chain
- Backed by Robinhood, known for retail investor trading, as a traditional broker aiming to continuously gain Crypto trading share and convert traditional users, exclusive asset listings are essential
- In the Q3 earnings season, management mentioned that the growth of Chain and its associated ecosystem, as well as Robinhood Wallet, exceeded expectations, and there will be more momentum to promote Robinhood Chain going forward
- Pairing with stock tokens in the pool might also be considered a slight liquidity innovation, with fee sharing turning stock tokens into another form of "dividends." This gameplay originated on Robinhood Chain. The current Crypto main theme is the major integration with TradFi, betting on a second wave$PUMP
Pump.fun opened a channel today, allowing NEAR ecosystem tokens to be traded directly on it without cross-chain. Such product moves usually go unnoticed.
The price is being generous though, opening at 0.003948 and now at 0.004402, +11.5%, close to the 24h high of 0.004436. The 1H trading volume ranges from 1.6 million to 2.09 million contracts per hour, very stable, no particularly explosive spikes.
Holdings are at $25.56 million. When I wrote about it around 3 AM, it was $25.57 million, basically unchanged after more than ten hours. The fee rate is 0.005%, only half the benchmark, very low. OKX spot 24h volume is only 9.4 million, and perpetual holdings are nearly three times that.
Price rose by 10%, leverage hasn’t moved, the buying is spot. I initially judged it as pulse buying, not continuous buying, but it kept grinding up, that was a strong hit to my face.
I won’t add positions at this level now. If chasing, wait for it to pull back to 0.0041, which is the starting point of this four-hour rise; if it loses that, consider the rise never happened.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ The real pressure on BTC may not be the election results, but the reshuffling of regulatory expectations!
The biggest suspense of the U.S. midterm elections is fading. The latest reports show that the Democratic Party has won control of both the House and Senate. This means that over the next two years, the White House will face stronger congressional checks on legislation and appointments, but it does not mean that U.S. crypto policy will immediately shift completely.
What truly deserves attention is the CLARITY Act. The bill failed to advance in a Senate procedural vote in September by 50 to 49, falling 10 votes short of the 60 needed. The leadership of committees, agenda setting, and bipartisan negotiations in the new Congress will determine whether the bill can be restarted.
In the short term, the political outcome may cause emotional fluctuations; in the medium term, regulatory uncertainty may raise compliance costs for the crypto industry, with trading platforms, stablecoins, and some altcoins facing more direct policy pressure. BTC is also unlikely to be completely unaffected, but its trend will also depend on ETF funds, dollar liquidity, and U.S. Treasury yields.
My view is: the election results are already revealed, and what the market will trade next is the ability to deliver on policies. Don’t rush to equate the Democratic victory with a guaranteed BTC drop; what really needs to be observed is whether ETF funds continue to flow out and how prices react after regulatory news is announced. Politics sets expectations, but capital decides the market. $BTC #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？
$BTC $XAU $SNDK
Tonight, the US stock market is very likely to show a "low open, high close, and sharp divergence" volatile pattern, with index declines expected to narrow significantly compared to the early session, but AI-related sectors will bear pressure alone.
Although the Democrats sweeping both the House and Senate was within expectations, the scale of the "blue wave" still triggered intense pre-market battles: Nasdaq futures once plunged over 2%, then rebounded to around a 0.4% decline, while Dow futures even turned positive. The VIX volatility index futures briefly broke above 20, indicating high short-term market caution.
The core suppressive force precisely targets AI infrastructure—newly elected Democrats openly oppose data center construction, raising market concerns that AI capital expenditures will hit regulatory walls. However, the underpinning logic is also clear: a divided government means fiscal expansion is limited, and falling US Treasury yields ease valuation pressure; historical patterns also show that US stocks on average rise about 11% in the three months following midterm elections. Therefore, tonight is more likely to be an "all clear" at the index level, combined with structural hedges from Democratic-benefiting sectors like healthcare and clean energy, but the AI data center industry chain will bear the main political risk pricing alone.ETFs are withdrawing, but Binance's funds are returning — this is today's most easily overlooked contrary signal
After the hacker incident, Binance's net inflow has turned positive by about $2.3 billion, but the ETF side is still bleeding: on November 2, BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of $399 million, and on November 3, another approximately $27 million; ETH ETFs have had outflows for 7 consecutive days totaling $85.3 million, with ETHA alone accounting for $74.4 million.
$BTC: around 77,100—77,450. Short-term support is at 76,000—76,600, resistance at 79,500—80,500. Only a recovery above 80,000 counts as sentiment repair; falling below 76,000 may trigger a new round of sell-off.
$ETH: around 2,274. The only one among the three coins to close relatively positive, but ETFs have had outflows for 7 consecutive days; 2,200 is the line still supported by the order book.
$SOL: around 92.8—93. SOL ETFs had a weekly net outflow of $71.47 million, the largest since launch; a giant whale deposited about 1.49 million tokens to exchanges over 10 days. The 200-day moving average is near 98; only a recovery above 100 marks the first step of a trend reversal.
Midterm election voting day, followed by Friday's nonfarm payrolls. ETFs are withdrawing, exchanges are recovering, direction and data are forthcoming.
For market record only, not investment advice.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $BTC
199.83 coins. According to the breaking news, this is the amount of Bitcoin liquidated across the entire network within two hours. There's also an address where the short position was liquidated six times in two hours.
The price is now 78141. At 11 o'clock, the 1H candle dropped to 75690, then at 12 o'clock with 970,000 contracts and at 13 o'clock with 990,000 contracts, two big bullish candles fully recovered the losses. At 15 o'clock, this candle only had 320,000 contracts, volume shrank to a quarter, yet the price touched 78345.
It looks like the shorts are conceding. I checked the open interest: 2.53 billion at 12 o'clock, now 2.71 billion, an increase of 185 million. The fee rate is 0.0088%, one tier lower than the 0.01 benchmark.
Liquidate a batch, replenish a batch. Leverage is rotating, not leaving. The price is climbing, supported underneath by new short positions and longs unwilling to pay a premium. I don't chase this kind of structure. If 78,300 doesn't hold, today's move is just a retracement to fill the wick.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ When I see this kind of news, I first calculate the risk and return, and I don't rush to treat the shrinkage as an opportunity. According to DefiLlama, the TVL of Optimism Bridge is currently about $508 million, down about 20.9% over the week, with a single-day change of +0.7%. My judgment: this is a risk signal, but not enough to conclude that funds are continuously withdrawing.
There are two reasons: the TVL decline may come from net outflows or just token price drops, and the implications for bridge usage demand are different; a single-day rebound also cannot prove that the weekly trend has reversed. For me, this news raises the priority of risk investigation, not the odds of bottom-fishing.
If funds stabilize after excluding price effects, then further research is worthwhile; if net outflows continue, the so-called attractive odds may just be an illusion. I will first look at the breakdown of fund flows and asset prices, and not use a shrinkage ratio to boost my confidence.Nvidia, which just rose 2.29% yesterday, fell 1.5% overnight.
The Democrats swept both chambers overnight, and the new Texas governor even threatened to put the brakes on data centers.
Interestingly, the panic only lasted half the night, with Nasdaq futures narrowing their drop from 2% to just 0.3%.
I think the variable for AI infrastructure has changed: before, it was just about demand and orders, now you also have to consider Washington's mood 🏛️.
For the first time, the shovel sellers have to watch policy moods to make a living.
$NVDA A friend told me that $BTC C always declines after the US midterm elections. According to him, this is a period when leveraged trading and futures contracts should be avoided. But is this really true? Let's look at the charts and compare Bitcoin's performance in November 2014, 2018, 2022, and 2026. **2014:** Looking at Figure 1, the 200-day moving average was still trending downward, and Bitcoin's price remained firmly below it. The price hadn't even broken through the descending trendline. So w#索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？
The boss has something to say
I have already written about Sony's earnings preview before, so I won't repeat it.
The market fell today, SONY dropped 0.90%, xSONY dropped 1.34%. Why the drop? The comments explain it well: although the yen is weak, and overseas profits converted back to yen can make the earnings report easily beat expectations, the game business hardware growth is weak. Moreover, the PS5 console price has actually risen against the trend, breaking the usual pattern of price drops over the product lifecycle, indicating real pressure on the hardware side.
The current core focus is whether software and PS+ subscriptions can hold steady. If the earnings report is beautified only by exchange rates but core subscription data is weak, investors won't buy it.
Bitcoin is still fluctuating between 77,000 and 80,000. Let's see if it can hold above 80,000; if not, expect a deeper correction. Resistance is between 84,000 and 85,000. Don't chase the rise or kill the dip; set your stop-loss orders properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; make sure to set your stop-loss orders. Good luck. $ETH $BTC $ZEC I always thought that once the GENIUS Act passed, stablecoins would be considered safe. But after reading the details, I realized that only the issuers are safe, while those rowing the boat are still in the water.
The bill provides a federal framework, but it doesn't exempt the state-level licenses. Exchanges, wallets, payment processors, remittance companies—anyone involved in receiving, exchanging, or transmitting funds—may still need to register with FinCEN and apply for licenses in each state.
The most frustrating part is the phrase "approved issuers do not automatically meet state-level requirements." Translated: compliance of $USDT $USDC issuers is one thing, and whether your wallet is compliant is another.
Don't think that regulation ends just because the framework is in place.#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？
Democrats sweep, market crashes then rallies, what exactly is the money betting on?
Today’s market looked like the apocalypse at the open, Nasdaq futures plunged over 2%, Nikkei and Korean stocks crashed 4% intraday, but what happened? A full V-shaped recovery. At close, the Dow was still down 0.38%, Nasdaq actually rose 0.83%, and Korean stocks turned from -4% to positive.
The most eye-catching were gold and silver. Spot gold surged straight up 4000 in the afternoon, a single-day jump of over $90, up 2.29%, silver was even stronger, up 3.82%.
What exactly is the market trading?
The first reaction was to sell off AI because Democrats want to regulate tech and block data center approvals. But money quickly realized one thing: Trump still holds veto power.
Democrats want to spend but can’t, Trump wants tax cuts but can’t push them through, ending in a policy deadlock. Fiscal expansion is suppressed, US Treasury yields fall, the dollar weakens, and gold benefits from this "return to fiscal discipline."
So don’t mistake the V-shaped reversal for risk-on. The money didn’t return to tech stocks; it fled into gold, silver, and US Treasuries. This trade is about deadlock, not growth.#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Many people read the GENIUS Act as "stablecoins are finally legal" and then breathed a sigh of relief. But what this bill actually does is first establish a federal framework, while leaving the state-level layer completely intact.
Who does it protect? The bill provides a federal pathway for stablecoin issuers, allowing approved issuers to have priority application of state laws on certain matters. Up to this point, the story is smooth. But the priority application has boundaries—it only applies to approved issuers, not to third parties involved with stablecoins.
Third parties include exchanges, wallets, payment processors, and remittance companies. As long as they are involved in receiving, controlling, exchanging, or transmitting value in any way, they may still need to register with FinCEN and obtain state-level money transmission or virtual currency licenses. Approval of issuers and FinCEN registration do not automatically mean state-level compliance.
The key mechanism here is that U.S. money transmission regulation is dual-track: the federal government manages anti-money laundering registration, while states manage licensing and capital requirements. The GENIUS Act affects the former track but not the latter. Therefore, whether a license is required does not depend on the "stablecoin" label but on the business activities and the states in which the business operates.
Implementation will be very fragmented. For the same product, State A may only require registration, while State B may require a license plus a bond. Companies operating across states must comply with each state's rules individually, rather than relying on a single federal approval as a pass.
$USDT $USDC $BNB7×24 hour quote inquiry trading, this detail gives me a bit of a familiar feeling from the previous cycle: traditional assets moving into the crypto market, and trading hours are extended accordingly. OKX has launched simple options this time, supporting call and put trading of tokenized stocks. What I care more about is whether it can meet the real needs of position management.
In the last cycle, I mostly heard "everything can be on-chain," but this time it's different; products are starting to focus on asset supplementation tools, not just adding a tradable name. I think this is a step toward practical application in the industry, but having 24/7 quote inquiry does not mean there are suitable quotes all the time. If the cost of quotes outside traditional trading hours is relatively high, then the convenience of time might be offset, which is my speculation.
Looking at it in the cycle, I prefer to see it as infrastructure catch-up rather than a signal of a new narrative taking off. What I want to observe next is the quote performance at different times, not how simple the entry is. Conclusion first: I'm not chasing ZEC this round. The bulls' main battlefield is on BTC and ETH, not on a coin with imminent news to be realized. ZEC's recent surge looks like a different person, up 12% in 24 hours, swallowing the previous day's 11% long bearish candle in one gulp, with the price hitting the lower edge of resistance at 1,279. The reason is not mysterious: the network upgrade NU7 activates on November 5 at block 3,543,405, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, cutting three confirmations from four minutes to just over one minute, and allocating 60% of fees into the network sustainability reserve pool. For the first time in three years, it is simultaneously upgrading capacity and funding mechanisms, and the market is buying in advance. But the market data does not support chasing the highs. ZEC's long-short account ratio is only 0.59—long accounts are 40% fewer than short accounts. Such a structure means the big rise is driven by shorts being forced to cover, not by new money building positions; the volatility is 14.5%, RSI 64 is already close to overbought. More importantly, the timing window: the upgrade lands on November 5, and the standard script for such good news is always a spike first followed by a long-term decline. On the day of Ethereum's merge in September 2022, the price was above 1,470, but two months later it dropped to 1,070. The news was there, and the market played out the news. I've seen many chase at this position, and in the end, they pay the price for the pumpers. If you want to gamble on this, cut your position to one-third of usual and set stop loss below 1,240. Don't take Why do I think capital prefers a stable policy environment? Compared to the Republican administration, BTC and ETH performed relatively steadily during certain historical periods under the Democratic administration. But what I want to say is not that one party is necessarily better for the crypto market, but rather: what capital truly needs is a stable, clear, and predictable policy environment. In recent years, the crypto market has become increasingly institutionalized; BTC and ETH are no longer just internal capital games within the crypto circle but are also influenced by US dollar liquidity, interest rate expectations, traditional financial markets, and global risk appetite. When policy directions suddenly change, the market must reprice. Tariff escalations cause the market to worry about inflation and trade frictions; conflicts between the US and Iran raise concerns about energy prices and geopolitical risks; policy reversals make it difficult for institutions to assess future costs and risks. The impact of these events is not just a large bearish candle when the news breaks but further affects interest rate expectations, funding costs, and risk appetite. Another change worth noting: with the entry of ETFs and institutional funds, the crypto market is increasingly linked to traditional financial markets. When the macro environment is stable, capital finds it easier to allocate; when uncertainty rises, risk assets are more likely to be reduced. Therefore, I prefer to understand this viewpoint as: capital does not necessarily fear strict policies but definitely cares about whether policies are inconsistent; it does not require the market to rise every day but needs to be able to assess risks. Of course, the trends of BTC and ETH cannot be simply attributed to the president's party. The Federal Reserve cycle, US dollar liquidity, regulatory progress, andThe flames on the stove leap higher than a person, and the aroma drifts across three streets—yet when I lift the pot lid, underneath lies a credit bill of 895.4 billion, of which 69.8 billion must be settled within twelve months.
This is the first glance at the "Anthropic big pot" in the kitchen: diners in the front hall are still arguing over the price. Originally, the signature dish was priced at two trillion, but now several old regulars—institutional financiers—are pressing the price down with fingers, saying they will only start eating if it’s between 1.5 to 1.6 trillion. The price tag hasn’t been set yet, but the soup in the pot has already boiled over three times.
First, taste the flavor: third-quarter revenue is 16.956 billion, a year-on-year surge of 1,127 percentage points. What kind of heat is this? It’s the kind of fierce stir-fry where the oil pan bursts into flames with a bang, and the whole kitchen hears it. But standing at the stove, I’m looking at the second pot—the quarter-on-quarter growth rate dropped from 144 to 47. The fire hasn’t gone out, but half the steam has leaked. A true chef doesn’t look at how high the flames are but whether the pot’s heat can stay steady; a fierce stir-fry that’s done in three seconds is beautiful, but tossing it too much burns the bottom.
Next, look at the accounts: operating loss of 567 million. This isn’t because the ingredients are expensive; it’s because I piled the most expensive truffles and the finest wagyu into the pot. The aroma is enough, but the returns haven’t climbed back onto the plate yet. Even worse are the long-term computing power and lease commitments—an ingredient pre-order of 895.4 billion, with cold chain, warehouses, and fuel all mortgaged behind it—69.8 billion due within a year, with the delivery guy at the kitchen door urging to sign the receipt. Whether revenue can grow into sustained profitability is like asking: can this pot of soup be sold for more than the firewood it burns?
Over in the US stock market, tokenized leveraged products fluctuate with the saltiness and blandness of this pot of soup; when the heat is off, the chili explodes in oil. Speaking of chili—the leveraged contract is that super spicy chili pepper; slicing it into the pot adds aroma, but throwing the whole bunch in will cause your own position to perforate your intestines the next day. Adding seasoning fiercely before the main dish is cooked ruins the taste first.
My verdict in one sentence: aroma up 1,127 times, payment term twelve months—this is not a dish ready to be served, it’s a dish still gambling on reducing the sauce on the stove. #anthropicipopricedebate#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 The current market's main point of contention is whether this nonfarm payroll report can change the Federal Reserve's policy pricing for December. The Fed has consistently used a dual anchor of "employment + inflation"; strong employment resilience leaves room for rate hikes; if employment weakens significantly, combined with a drop in wages, it will weaken the rationale for further rate hikes within the year.
The focus is not on a single monthly number but on four core aspects: new jobs added, unemployment rate, average hourly wage growth, and revisions to previous data. Wages are paramount; wage stickiness is key to persistent service inflation; even if job additions are modest, as long as wages exceed expectations, hawkish sentiment will intensify.
1. Employment and wages both stronger than expected: employment resilience confirmed, the market directly raises the probability of a December rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen, while U.S. stocks, gold, silver, and crypto assets come under pressure.
2. Data meets expectations, mild cooling: maintain current pricing, the Fed continues to wait and see, awaiting subsequent CPI/PCE data, with the market likely to fluctuate within a narrow range.
3. New jobs significantly below expectations, wages decline, previous data revised downward: signals of weakening employment materialize, the market bets on a pause or even a long-term hold on rate hikes, the dollar weakens, and risk assets get a recovery window.
The risk lies in the high volatility of nonfarm payrolls themselves; a single data point rarely settles the matter decisively. Even if employment is somewhat strong, if inflation continues to fall, the Fed can still choose to hold steady; conversely, if employment is weak but inflation rebounds, tightening expectations will resurge. $BTC $ETH $ZEC