Orbit Post Sitemap
👀 Looking back at history, $BTC experienced significant drops after the 2018 and 2022 US midterm elections.
But there is a key difference:
In both instances, BTC was near the low point of the past year.
Right now, BTC's price is about 33% above the annual low.
Currently, there is no clear indication that this time will repeat the previous downward pattern.
History can be referenced, but not directly copied.
$BTC #تقرير أرباح Circle على الأبواب، هل يمكن لنمو العملات المستقرة أن يحقق عوائد؟
Circle earnings report drops today.
Does stablecoin growth translate into real returns?
Yes — the company’s core income comes from reserve yields.
However, a large share of revenue goes to distribution partners like Coinbase, which pressures margins.
Key metrics to watch: USDC circulating supply and the retained revenue ratio.
#USDC #Circle #CRCLThe US stock AI sector is undergoing a stress test—opportunities after the midterm elections!
1. Midterm Elections: Market Turning Point
The 2026 US midterm elections will be held on November 3.
Statistics since 1950 show that in the 12 months following the election, the S&P 500 index tends to perform strongly, with an average gain of about 15%. Regardless of which party holds the advantage, as election uncertainty gradually dissipates, market risk appetite may recover, though different election outcomes still impact various industries differently.
What truly matters is not just which party wins, but the fiscal policy, tech regulation, trade policy, and monetary policy expectations after the election.
For tech assets that have seen significant pullbacks, the next two months offer a chance to reassess valuations and positioning.
2. AI Investment Enters the Second Half: From Storytelling to Cash Flow
Over the past three years, AI valuations have mainly focused on three points:
1. Whether there is core technology and competitive advantage?
2. Whether demand for computing power continues to grow?
3. Whether there are enough customers and backlog orders?
As long as growth expectations are strong, the market often grants high valuations. But now, the evaluation criteria are changing.
AI investment is shifting from a computing power arms race to rigorous scrutiny of balance sheets, financing ability, and free cash flow.
On October 30, the Nasdaq index fell about 2.86%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped about 7.2%, reflecting market concerns over AI’s massive capital expenditures and return cycles.
But what I want to say is: a decline in tech stocks does not mean global computing power demand is drying up.
AI infrastructure is still being built; the market’s real question is: when will investments turn into profits? Will capital expenditures consume cash flow? How much can companies finance at what cost?
This is a stress test of AI companies’ financial sustainability, not an industry collapse.
The future winners won’t necessarily be the companies that invest the most, but those that can sustain investment, control debt, and ultimately generate free cash flow.
In the short term, watch elections and liquidity; in the long term, focus on profits and free cash flow. A crash brings opportunity, but the timing of buying still depends on company quality, valuation, and position management🫡$BTC $ETH $ZEC 59 companies, the words "blacklist" evoke more fear than the number itself. With Apple and others newly added, I'm worried that onlookers might directly interpret it as the entire stock token sector being rejected.
I think this interpretation is overblown: the issuer's objection does not equal a lack of user demand. My guess is, if a company is concerned about brand usage boundaries, then the objection might be about fighting for control rather than evaluating the sector's value.
I also tend to fall into confirmation bias due to negative wording. Reminding myself: fear can signal risk but cannot replace judgment.😶$XRP
With policy expectations improving, can it replace payment usage growth?
The regulatory environment constrains participants, but from policy discussion to business implementation, institutional access, liquidity, and continuous settlement are still needed.
If payment activity growth is accompanied by deeper spot liquidity, the demand explanation is more complete; if the price only reacts to political news and usage indicators remain unchanged, I would consider it event-driven trading. When policy fulfillment falls short of expectations, the premium may quickly decline.When I hear "voting with money," I always feel that this phrase makes money sound too straightforward. In on-chain prediction markets, those betting on Bitcoin's rise aren't necessarily very optimistic; they might just think the odds are right or are hedging positions elsewhere. Normally, you can wait when buying coins, but here you have to accept the result at expiration, so the mindset is indeed different. Therefore, when I look at the odds, I try to figure out what the underlying demand is and don't dare to take it directly as everyone's true winning probability. Especially when a big player moves funds around—does this count as changing their stance, or just a simple portfolio adjustment?#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 The market is awaiting Moderna's Q3 earnings report, with the main focus on the latest trends in vaccine sales.
Previously, vaccine clinical data was leaked early; the trial results were generally positive but failed to meet the market's earlier optimistic expectations, which put pressure on the stock price after the news broke. The continued decline in demand for traditional COVID-19 vaccines is the biggest short-term revenue pressure. Procurement orders, shipment volumes, and gross margins of routine vaccines will be the core metrics for this quarter's revenue.
The capital market is re-pricing Moderna, no longer viewing it solely as a COVID-19 vaccine company but gradually re-evaluating it as an mRNA oncology technology platform company. The mRNA oncology pipeline is a long-term story. Investors will focus on pipeline R&D progress, clinical trial enrollment status, and the pace of R&D expenditure in this earnings call. However, oncology drug development cycles are long and carry high failure risks, making it difficult to contribute sales revenue in the short term.
Overall, the Q3 performance foundation relies on sales of mature vaccine products; the company's medium- to long-term valuation depends on the quality of progress in the mRNA oncology pipeline. If the decline in vaccine sales is controllable and oncology pipeline data continues to improve, it could support valuation recovery; conversely, if vaccine revenue falls short of expectations and there is no notable progress in the cutting-edge pipeline, the stock price will remain under pressure. At the time of the earnings release, it is important to closely track revenue guidance, pipeline milestone updates, and cash burn status.I often find the comment sections after crypto prediction markets release results a bit amusing. Those who guessed correctly are busy showing screenshots, while the other side suddenly goes quiet, leaving the screen full of "I knew it all along."
But which side the odds favor only shows which possibility the funds were more willing to price at the time; no one had the answer in advance. When buying coins that drop, people can still talk about long-term expectations, but once a prediction is settled, it's hard to argue stubbornly. Those who argued the loudest before the results came out, why don't they return to the original post anymore?A trader was liquidated for $52.5 million over 7 days and still hasn't exited.
On-chain data shows: he shorted BTC on Hyperliquid, accumulating $52.5 million in liquidations over 7 days, with an actual loss of $881,000. He still holds $5.54 million in $BTC short positions, with 40x leverage, unrealized loss of -$149,600, and lifetime P&L of -$885,500. Only 0.27% away from liquidation.
Breaking down the numbers: $52.5 million is the size of liquidated positions, not the money he lost; the actual amount wiped from his account is $881,000. The nearly 60x difference means each time the position was liquidated first, only a small portion of principal was lost, then he added back to continue shorting. It wasn’t a single liquidation but repeated liquidations and re-entries over seven days.
Regarding the mechanism: with 40x leverage, a 2.5% adverse price move wipes out the principal. He only has 0.27% room left—if $BTC moves up by a couple dozen basis points, this $5.54 million is gone. This kind of position isn’t a holding; it’s a bet hanging on the liquidation line.
My judgment: this isn’t bearish sentiment, it’s a position that must be right immediately. A true short would allow for error; someone at 40x leverage is betting on a single needle move without any upward wiggle.
What’s worth considering: lifetime loss is -$885,500, and in the last 7 days alone he lost $881,000. Previous trades were basically for nothing; his entire net worth was lost in this one week. The position remains, but the account is effectively finished.#美伊谈判未突破，油价为何单日跌逾7%？ $BTC $ETH
The negotiations failed to reach a breakthrough; logically, this should have been positive for crude oil, but instead, oil prices plummeted. This indicates that the market had already priced in the "no conflict" scenario, or that weak demand outweighed the geopolitical premium.
For the crypto market, geopolitical disturbances to the overall market are weakening, and capital is not buying into it. There's no need to overinterpret the Middle East situation; focus back on the fundamentals of capital flow itself.Gold has retreated back to the average transaction zone, SLX continues to slide down
$XAU 3940.56, up 0.8% in the past 24 hours, the gain remains, quote returns near the average price 🥇
The volume-weighted average price of gold contracts in the past 24 hours is about 3943.68, with the quote at 3940.56 returning nearby, the distance from the recent high is narrowing.
The high of 3977.95 was not sustained, but it also did not fall back to the low of 3899.18, closer to the middle of the range.
From my judgment of the upward surge turning to digestion, the strong bias needs to be discounted, the upward distance has not yet reopened.
$SLX 0.03868, down 6.3% in the past 24 hours, price retreating quickly, contract quantity changes little 🟩
In the same completed 12-hour period, the price dropped 6.7%, and the number of open contracts decreased by only 0.3%, the downward move did not correspond with a proportional scale exit.
Quantity is close to the original level, but the exchange price is already lower, this contrast deserves attention.
Short-term remains weak, stable quantity should not be mistaken for price stability, nor is there a basis to assign holding direction for these contracts.
$LINK 11.078, down 2.6% in the past 24 hours, active buying is bullish, but did not push the price up 📡
In the past two full hours, active buy transaction volume accounted for 55.5%, price still fell 0.6% during the same period, active buying did not result in upward movement.
Quote at 11.078 is again close to the low of 11.004, no recovery near 11.2, feedback remains cold.
I pay more attention to displacement after transactions, the buying ratio can describe trading style but cannot be directly taken as net capital inflow.Coincidentally, the $BTC four-year halving cycle exactly aligns with the U.S. midterm election cycle on the same timeline. Historically in 2014, 2018, and 2022, these three midterm elections all occurred near the end of bear markets. After the midterm elections, there is often one last wave of sell-off and panic liquidation, which marks the cycle bottom, followed by the gradual start of a new bull market. Even more interestingly, the timing of the bottom has been advancing. In 2014, the bear marToday's market showed wide fluctuations. In the early session, driven by expectations for the US midterm elections and risk aversion sentiment, $BTC quickly dipped near $75700, hitting the intraday low before funds stepped in to support a rebound, pushing it back above $77400; ETH followed the sell-off, bottoming at $2226 and rebounding to around $2290. Over the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations exceeding $419 million, with a higher proportion of long position liquidations. This indicates a clear short-term shakeout, with volume concentrated during the sell-off phase and weaker volume on the rebound, characterizing a corrective bounce.
After the midterm elections, I hear two voices in the market: "Bad news priced in, ready to take off" and "Midterms always lead to sharp declines, history as a lesson."
$BTC support levels: $76100 (first strong support), $74800 (defensive bottom line)
Resistance: $78100 (first intraday resistance), $79600
78 and 80 are two key resistance points. There won't be a big surge here, as market makers will have large funds suppressing the price. $HYPE ✅ Key HYPE transfers today (November 4, as of 15:24)
1. a16z related address newly deposited 32,862 HYPE to exchanges
- In the past 5 days, this related address has cumulatively transferred about $15.02 million worth of HYPE to exchanges
- Market interpretation: If this batch of tokens is sold, estimated profit is about $1.08 million
2. Yeti0x: exchanged to obtain 29,870 HYPE, deposited to Hyperliquid, has already started spot selling
- Worth about $2.45 million, key selling pressure order
3. HyperLabs team unstaking redemption progress (old notes matured for payout)
- Previously staked tokens redeemed as planned, some routed through OTC channels, not through regular exchange deposit addresses From tonight until tomorrow, watch two things
Whether BTC can hold above 77,800. Tilen from 10x Research says the stochastic indicator shows oversold, with the next target at 82,000. But the ETF is still bleeding, and bullish bets in the options market alone won’t hold up for long. ZEC’s NU7 activates tomorrow, and around the upgrade rollout, the 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' volatility will likely increase. The 76,400 level held today, and it needs to hold again tomorrow. 盘口刚弹了一下，BTC在77,500附近磨蹭，买盘喊得热闹，脚下却没多少真金白银。 这波反弹，你猜是启动前的最后一次深呼吸，还是派发前的礼貌性回抽？ 我盯着这根均线压制的结构看了好一会儿。上方均线像一排没关紧的窗，风一直往下灌。资金费率还在天天抽买方的血，这种位置去追多，基本等于替别人挡子弹。原文给的空头思路很明确：等回抽77,400到77,600分两笔布空，均价77,500，止损78,250，跌破76,260减半，74,735全部了结，杠杆2到3倍、仓位不超总资金5%。我认同这个节奏的核心，不追现价，等反抽给位置。 但我想补一层情绪面的观察。现在买方那个状态，很像街头追着拍照的人群，喊声很大，人却越走越远。情绪还在，承接没了，这是分歧阶段最典型的体感。真正要派发的时候，反而不会这么吵，会安静得让你以为稳了。 ETH这边更诚实一些。报价2,249，24小时跌2.58%，七日区间2,171到2,391，跌幅比BTC还实在。未平仓合约18.5亿美元，单日净流出740万，十天累计净流入才4,230万，放到BTC那2.971亿的对比里，几乎可以忽略。翻译成人话：空头刚进场，下方还有空间，但ETThe fate of the CLARITY Act affects the industry more than the election results themselves.
Democratic control of Congress means this bill is very likely to be renegotiated rather than quickly restarted. Warren is a major opponent, and if she becomes chair of the banking committee, the legislative process will slow down. The market has largely priced in this factor, but pricing it in does not mean it will come to fruition. Seeing this, I get a familiar feeling like the script from the last market cycle is being replayed: once the external suspense eases, the market rushes to stamp the new cycle. I’m now more inclined to be cautious and first see if the reasons for the price increase can be sustained.
According to CoinDesk, as uncertainty around the US midterm elections gradually fades, BTC has made a strong V-shaped rebound, approaching $78,000. This time, unlike the familiar cycle narrative from the last round, the direct catalyst given by the news is the decline in political uncertainty, not a new change in on-chain demand.
My judgment is that this is short-term bullish but not enough to confirm a cycle shift. Reduced suspense can lower the resistance of funds waiting on the sidelines; however, relieving concerns and creating new demand are two different things. If there is a lack of sustained demand afterward, I guess the effect of this catalyst will gradually weaken. Do veteran players have the same familiar feeling: after the election suspense settles, what signals would you wait for to recognize that the rise is not just a sigh of relief?"Midterm election historical data: rises after one year, but dips in between
Since 1950, in 19 midterm elections, the S&P 500 has risen every year after the election, averaging 15.1%. Bitcoin's three full cycles also showed positive returns one year later, but it dipped for a while in the weeks following the vote. This year, the US stock market is only 3% below its peak, so the recoverable decline is naturally limited. History can be a reference, but don't treat it as a script.When I saw this message, the first thing I thought of wasn’t how big a story stock tokens could tell, but whether the odds had factored in the issuer’s attitude. Convenient trading access doesn’t mean the underlying resistance is small; I view these two matters separately.
OKXICE announced on November 3 that Apple, Home Depot, and GE Vernova have joined the issuer objection list, increasing the list from 56 to 59 companies. My judgment is that this is somewhat bearish for the stock token sector sentiment, but "raising objections" should not be directly interpreted as "trading has already stopped."
The expansion of the list makes me pay more attention to the uncertainty brought by issuer opposition; if objections further affect product arrangements, then the value of convenience must be discounted. This is my speculation, not a result that has already occurred. If the boundaries of rights and objection handling mechanisms are clear, such products are worth further study; if they only attract attention by familiar company names, I think no matter how tempting the odds are, it’s hard to count on the expected value. What I want to see next is how the objections are handled, not how lively the list is.At 5:15 AM Beijing time on November 4, AMD released its Q3 earnings report. Revenue was $13.38 billion, up 45% year-over-year. Data center business reached $8.5 billion, up 97% year-over-year, nearly doubling. The Q4 guidance is around $17 billion, with a 3% margin of error, and the midpoint is about 66% higher than the same period last year. After-hours stock price surged over 8%. Last Friday, Intel also delivered a decent data center performance, with revenue up 78% in Q3. However, its stock price dropped 29% that day. The market is worried about its guidance and whether it can meet demand. Both companies are growing, but the market rewarded only one. The market is buying the next quarter. Comparing the two earnings reports, the dividing line is not the past three months but the next three months. AMD's Q4 guidance is significantly higher than analysts' average expectation of about $16.2 billion. Lisa Su said on the call even further: server revenue is expected to double by 2027, and overall company revenue is expected to grow over 80%. Anyone can report growth. The real measure for this round of pricing is whether the next quarter's shipments can be delivered. The real threshold is written in the supply chain. There was a sentence on the call that carries more weight than all growth rates: the wafers, substrates, advanced packaging, memory, and other key components needed for next year have already been negotiated with the supply chain by AMD. AI chips currently do not lack orders; what is lacking is on-time delivery. Capacity must be locked in first before guidance can be raised. AMD is no longer quite like a computer chip company The ZEC community grant controversy has loosened the coin holding structure.
ZCG holds about 91,500 ZEC in the funding pool; some feel the money is being spent without restraint, and a major holder announced a full exit. Some whales are betting on the upgrade to go long, while early holders sold 25,000 coins near 1,514, profiting 27 million before exiting. On the eve of the upgrade, the holding structure is loosening.$ETH 现在过去24小时几乎也没怎么动，主打一个横盘磨性子，关键是ETF已经连续六个交易日净流出了，看起来是卖的人和接的人暂时达成了某种平衡😂
总之ETH现在和$BTC 都是差不多的剧本，机构的态度还没从盗币事件和选举里缓过来，水位在降、慢钱在撤、价格靠存量博弈撑着。这种时候比的就不是谁看得远咯，谁的仓位轻谁就能在周五非农的时候备足子弹
以上，DYOR$SOL
657 million USD, one day's volume.
Breaking news says that the single-day trading volume of tokenized stocks on Solana reached this number, more than twice any other day since September. Seeing this figure, I thought SOL would definitely react somewhat.
But it didn't. Just saw 92.94, the 24-hour high of 93.91 still looming overhead. At 11 o'clock, the one-hour candle dropped to 89.78, with a volume of 1.15 million, the heaviest of the day. Afterwards, at 12 o'clock 830,000, 13 o'clock 600,000, 14 o'clock 290,000, and at 15 o'clock only 90,000.
Volume shrank all the way, price slowly climbed back. This kind of movement is common, after a dump no one takes over selling, nor does anyone rush to buy.
Positions have been replenished though. Earlier 320.8 million, now 334.9 million, almost back to pre-dump levels. Funding rate 0.0082%, longs are not even willing to pay a premium.
My judgment: The on-chain story is hot, but the market is not. These two things can coexist, indicating that the money buying tokenized stocks is not the same group speculating on SOL tokens. Only when they merge will there be a market; for now, each plays their own game.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ A bit delicate: CZ is no longer the CEO of Binance, but a shareholder. When the company runs into trouble, the easiest thing for shareholders is to keep quiet and wait for the PR statement to be released before nodding. He, on the other hand, publicly calls it a "serious security flaw," demanding the company be transparent, take responsibility, and make substantial improvements.
It's quite an interesting scene to see someone who no longer manages daily operations come out to urge those who do to take action. Either he's genuinely worried, or he's speaking up on behalf of the users first.
For ordinary users, there's really just one question: should the money still be kept on the exchange? Whether $BNB rises or not is secondary; first, let's see if they dare to clearly explain the vulnerability. Bitcoin's Three-Cycle "Post-Election Bottom → Rebound" Review
In the history of three midterm elections, BTC has followed the same path: first a drop, accelerated clearing, then a violent rebound.
📊 Data speaks:
2014 (71 days to bottom)
Election day ~$360 → dropped to $230 (-36%) → next bull peak $20,000+
Rebound: +8,600%
2018 (39 days to bottom)
Election day ~$6,350 → dropped to $3,150 (-50%) → 2019 rebound $13,800
Rebound: +338%
2022 (13 days to bottom)
Election day ~$19,500 → dropped to $15,500 (-21%) → 2024 breaks previous high $73,750
Rebound: +376%
🔑 Three rules:
① Bottom lag days decrease: 71→39→13 (market pricing efficiency improves)
② The deeper the drop, the stronger the rebound (2018 dropped 50%, rebounded 338%)
③ Within 12 months post-election, prices are always higher than election day
🧭 Insights for 2026:
Currently, with ETF support + protection fund mechanisms, expected drop is shallower and bottoming faster. If there is a post-election pullback, it could be the "last dip" buying opportunity.
History doesn't simply repeat, but it always rhymes. There's a piece of data that gave me a chill after reading it
Historically, after midterm elections, BTC most likely drops — it was like this in 2014, 2018, and 2022
Those people call this a pattern, but frankly, it just means after the votes are counted, debts have to be paid
According to this script, now is the time to be out of the market, avoid leverage, and definitely avoid contracts
I was ready to accept this fate until I looked at this year's chart and found something off
This year's price has already broken through the downtrend line and has returned above the yearly moving average
In the previous three midterms, prices were still suppressed below the yearly moving average before the election, but this time is different — this time it’s standing on the line waiting for the vote
Same date, completely different position
Looking for answers in old charts is like driving while staring at the rearview mirror
History rhymes, but it doesn’t copy homework
ETH is the same — today at 2288, it stomped on the 2285 liquidation zone beneath its feet, standing with BTC on the same side
But to be fair, the pattern is there, and the position is indeed held; both sides have their reasons, and that’s the hardest part
Going long is blocked by the pattern, going short is capped by the yearly moving average, and people like me are stuck in the middle
Yes, still holding that ZEC short position, and tomorrow coincides with NU7
So at this position, do you trust history or your own eyes?
Comment below and pick a side, I want to see which side the majority supports
$BTC $ETH $ZEC “Attracting overseas trading backflow” is the goal I care about most. The Moscow Exchange, under sanctions, plans to launch Bitcoin and USDT in December, which is easily seen as a demand boost, but I prefer to view it as a battle for existing volume.
On the other hand, changing the trading venue does not equal new demand; launching does not mean users are willing to relocate. My guess is, if there is no advantage in liquidity depth and deposit/withdrawal experience, then the backflow will be hard to realize. I first look at the reasons for migration and am not in a hurry to consider the launch news as positive.$ONDO
Interest rates remain high, so why might the demand for tokenized U.S. Treasuries and the price of ONDO not move in sync?
An increase in underlying yields may enhance the product's appeal, but the returns to product holders do not necessarily translate automatically into cash flow for governance token holders.
If the product scale grows but value distribution remains unchanged, it cannot directly raise the token valuation; only if economic rights and usage growth form a clear connection can the assessment change. Redemption experience and liquidity also need ongoing verification.CZ has spoken out again, this time about the company he once managed.
Binance recently experienced a security vulnerability, and CZ's characterization is severe: it's not a minor glitch, but a serious security flaw. His current role is shareholder, not CEO, but he mentioned three things—maintain transparency, take responsibility, and make substantial improvements. Each of these is harder to fulfill than the last.
What’s worth pondering is the position from which he made these remarks. The founder stepping back to a shareholder role should be the most suitable position for silence: say nothing when problems arise, wait for management to handle it, then nod in agreement—minimizing risk. Yet he chose to speak out publicly. To outsiders, this looks like a "founder returning to the kitchen," but internally it seems more like a stress test—whether they are willing to lay out the details of the vulnerability, its impact scope, and the remediation progress openly.
The real damage a security incident causes to an exchange is never about what was lost, but that users start to doubt "Will it be me next time?" Once this doubt forms, actions become conservative: funds get moved first, positions get reduced first, liquidity thins out first. Fixing the code might take weeks, but restoring trust takes years.
So the key this time isn’t the vulnerability itself, but the response. How transparent will they be, who will take responsibility, and whether there is a timeline for improvements—these three points being fulfilled matter more than any comforting words.
$BNB holders are essentially pricing something very intangible: whether this exchange is still trustworthy. Once the security narrative weakens, valuation moves first, price follows.#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
The implied volatility of options is very high (close to 89%), indicating that funds are betting on significant earnings report fluctuations; community voting leans optimistic, but institutional research warns: "Revenue exceeding expectations does not mean core business improvement, it may rely on one-time income to prop up the situation"#تقرير Circle earnings are on the horizon, can stablecoin growth deliver returns? But this is not a simple case of "Democrats win = world peace"; it may instead open a new window of risks. #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ The US-Iran situation will not cool down. Trump has already admitted that the Iran conflict was one of the reasons for the Republican defeat, but he also insists that "significant action must be taken against Iran." After the Democrats take control of Congress, his domestic legislative space will be squeezed, and congressional investigations will follow one after another. In this situation, the motivation to divert contradictions and consolidate the base through external military actions is even stronger. However, since Congress controls the purse strings, large-scale wars cannot be launched, but the probability of small-scale skirmishes and airstrikes increases. Trump's policies will be constrained. Tax reform, increased tariffs, and deregulation of AI will all face congressional opposition. A divided government means a deepening legislative deadlock, and the president can only rely more on executive orders, reducing policy stability and predictability. Europe is likely to be under pressure. High oil prices combined with dollar fluctuations are a double blow to Europe, which is highly dependent on energy imports. Eurozone inflation is already fragile, and if the Middle East becomes chaotic again, the European Central Bank's policy space will be further compressed. The Middle East is entering a period of fragmented turmoil. Iran will not easily submit, and the shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz remains a constant threat. Regional mediation is underway, but the structural differences between the US and Iran are too great, and temporary agreements could be torn up at any time. Oil prices will surge in the short term but may not hit historical highs. Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end Brent forecast to $105, while Shenwan Hongyuan believes it may fall back to around $75 after the election. There is a large divergence between the two, with the core issue being ZEC initially dropped about 10% on Tuesday before rebounding to lead the gains; OKX current price is about 1269, up about 12% in 24 hours, I am not chasing.
Seen: CoinDesk (US Eastern 11/3 23:48) reported that ZEC rebounded about 5% to around 1200 after dropping about 10% on Tuesday, leading mainstream coins.
TokenPost (US Eastern 11/4 00:27) recorded that at 00:25, Binance spot was about 1234, up 3.31% in 1 hour and 8.48% in 24 hours; Binance/Bybit/OKX had about $550,000 in short liquidations that hour, far exceeding long liquidations of about $30,000.
OKX spot is currently about 1269, 24h high 1279, low 1125; perpetual positions about $168 million, funding rate about +0.01%.
My view: This looks more like a short squeeze pulse after a dip, not a confirmation of a new trend; vote counting noise continues, so rallies are more likely to be retraced.
My plan: Observe and not chase. First see if it can retest and hold 1250; if it breaks below this round's low of 1125, the short-term rebound narrative fails.
Do you think we should wait for it to hold above 1250 or wait for a retest confirmation before acting?
$ZEC $BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？Last night, during the US midterm election vote count, $BTC dropped from nearly 78,000 to 75,700 within a few hours, then bounced back to around 78,000—a sharp dip followed by a quick recovery.
I monitored a few numbers: spot ETF net outflow was $399 million on 11/2, and as of 11/3, it’s still showing net outflow; funding rates have hovered around the 0.01% baseline, with no clear signs of bulls adding leverage; the Fear & Greed Index is at 34, still in the fear zone.
My view: this rebound seems more like short covering combined with some uncertainty from the election settling down, rather than new money entering the market. Until institutions stop the bleeding, I won’t chase above 78,000. The 76,000 level has been repeatedly tested these past few days; last night’s sharp dip briefly broke below it once, and if it breaks again, we’ll be looking at 75,000.
I’m holding spot myself, no leverage, waiting for the ETF to turn positive for several consecutive days before making moves. The election results aren’t fully out yet, so volatility may not be over.
What do you think—was that sharp dip a bottom signal or just a continuation of the downtrend?@八佰哥爱理财 has already been beaten down with no fight left, the price remains the same, but the positions have disappeared hahaha
$BTC from 75734 to 77933, today's 2200 points drop was caused by the election and also pulled back by the election.
The spike at midnight down to 75734.5 is the lowest point in 30 days.
With no vote count out yet, the market is betting on whether the two chambers split or the Democrats sweep.
The media judges that the Democrats took both chambers, Trump says he is willing to accept it.
Once uncertainty is resolved, the price climbs out of the pit, rising 1.77% in 24 hours.
The initial drop then rise is not because the news got better, but because the news became clearer.
Honestly, this drop has little to do with the election.
On October 30, the daily candle dropped from 81778 to 76519, a 5% drop in one day.
Those who needed to exit have already done so.
The election just gave the shorts one last knife, letting the price touch a new low.
RSI is 23.9, oversold to this extent, a bounce is very normal.
MA20 is at 80318, MA50 at 82023, two moving averages pressing down overhead, current price is still 2400 points below MA20.
With Democrats controlling both chambers, Trump won’t be able to push crypto-friendly legislation in the last two years.
The impact of the midterm elections on the crypto space is not in today's candle, but in the policy premium unwinding over the next two years.
$ETH $XAU #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ However, I wouldn't attribute every move in tech stocks to the election. AI valuations, heavy capital expenditure and questions about when those investments will generate meaningful returns were already weighing on sentiment.
The election has added another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile market.
One important detail: a lot of investors had anticipated a Democratic comeback.
#USMidtermsCongressWatch Calculating, the 199.83 BTC liquidated is about 2.82 times the remaining 70.99 BTC short positions. What I care most about is the latter: after this round of liquidation, the risk exposure has not yet returned to zero. When I see this kind of news, I usually first look at how much is left, rather than rushing to treat the liquidation amount as a bullish achievement.
① There have been 6 liquidations in the past 2 hours, according to PANews citing monitoring data from Lookonchain. The number indicates that liquidations are happening continuously, but this does not mean traders are repeatedly opening short positions, nor should it be imagined as "the more they lose, the more they gamble."
② The liquidated positions amount to 15.45 million USD. This number is eye-catching, but it represents the size of liquidated positions, not the net loss of accounts; mixing the two will exaggerate what this news can indicate.
③ The remaining short positions are about 5.5 million USD, with a new liquidation price of 78,192.79 USD. The material only mentions that $BTC rebounded and broke through 78,000 USD, without providing a real-time price, so I won’t directly calculate the current safety distance using this round number.
My judgment is that this is more like an account risk alert, not enough to serve as evidence for a bullish trend. If the price continues to approach the liquidation line, the remaining positions may be pressured again, which is my speculation; but a single account not holding up does not mean the entire short side has failed. When you see this kind of liquidation news, do you usually pay most attention to the remaining positions, the number of liquidations, or how far the price is from the liquidation price?Macro: Three big pressures weigh down, money dares not move recklessly
1) US Midterm Elections: Not afraid of the result, but afraid "the result hasn't come out yet"
Voting just ended, results will be released gradually over time. Who controls Congress directly determines whether the pro-crypto policies can still be pushed forward.
The market's hardest pain is never good news or bad news, but "not knowing what the news is"—so just pull back and don't bet heavily.
Adding to that, the previous $11 billion options cluster expiration, originally helping to "suppress volatility," sellers have withdrawn, making prices more prone to wild swings.
2) November 6 Nonfarm Payrolls: Too good employment is actually bad news
On this day, the US October employment report will be released. The logic is basically one chain: jobs are found too easily → the Fed has no reason to ease, might even raise rates again → the dollar gets stronger, less money available for speculation → volatile assets like Bitcoin get hit first.
Some trading models now price the probability of a December rate hike at about 79%. The dollar index also rose 0.15% to 101.867, adding another layer of pressure on all dollar-denominated coins.
3) Safe-haven signal: Bitcoin hasn't held up as well as gold recently
Look at a simple indicator—1 BTC now exchanges for about 20 ounces of gold, this price ratio has broken below the old 20x threshold.
Bloomberg's Mike McGlone puts it bluntly: this is not a good sign, tech stocks and "risk assets" like crypto may need further adjustment, and funds prefer to hide in gold.
Arthur Hayes agrees: until the Fed or banks inject more money into the market, BTC is unlikely to have a decent rally, so it remains weak for now.
The only consolation: Trump said "no plan to strike Iran immediately," easing the tension a bit, so today oil, gold, silver, and crypto all rose slightly together.
But note, this is a "breather" small rebound, not a trend reversal to bullish. #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 💎 $SKHYNIX USDT – SK Hynix
SK Hynix is under selling pressure. A recovery needs stronger buying volume.
Entry: 1,040–1,045
SL: 1,025
TP1: 1,060
TP2: 1,080
#SKHYNIX #OKX #SonyQ2GamingAndMusic #Solana稳定币卡月消费额创新高
"Solana Stablecoin Card Monthly Spending Hits New High"
Paymentscan data shows that Solana chain stablecoin cards spent $141 million in October, setting a new record.
Year-on-year surge of about 7 times, month-on-month increase of 24%. Spending is highly concentrated, with KAST and Rain together accounting for 93% of the share.
Paying through bank card networks, on-chain assets are accelerating into daily life. The key going forward is the retention of funds after gateway settlement. $SOL $ETH ETF has seen net outflows for 23 consecutive days, breaking the longest outflow record. Institutions are stuffing their pockets with tokens daily and then retreating.
What’s even worse is that hackers on the chain are still tightly holding over 120,000 ETH dumped as obvious selling pressure. With such a huge chunk of chips overhead, who dares to put real money in to catch the falling knife?
Meanwhile, retail investors are still stubbornly holding on. The long-short ratio has surged to 2.67. The money flow index (MFI) is pitifully low at just 10.98, completely diverging from BTC by falling instead of rising. The buying power on this chart is totally drained; the bulls are just stubbornly holding as a cushion, and any rebound only loosens liquidity for the bears.
#ETH
$ETH
👇#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $ZEC
I just don't understand, the ZEC narrative is still there, so why get off? Such a great opportunity!
Fundamentally, NU7 provides a foundation for an experiential Tachyon setup and an anti-quantum roadmap outlining long-term technical depth. ETFs and shielded pool locks create short-term chip resilience. But governance consensus is not solid, the proportion of transparent pools is too high, and regulatory channels are narrowing, meaning the "real explosion of privacy demand" has yet to be verified by on-chain data.
Just this week and next, ZEC's performance will definitely be eye-catching!#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Circle (CRCL) will release its Q3 earnings report before the U.S. market opens on November 4. With the expansion of USDC circulation and the growth of stablecoin payment services, reserve income, distribution costs, and profitability will further reflect the quality of growth in the stablecoin business.The US midterm elections have already started leaving their mark on financial markets.
Democrats have secured control of both the Senate and the House, delivering a major political setback to President Trump and creating uncertainty around the policy direction for the next two years.
Markets reacted quickly.
#USMidtermsCongressWatch BlackRock moved $700 million worth of BTC and ETH into custody channels within an hour, but the ETF ledger has seen outflows for the third consecutive day.
$BTC around 77,900, ETF net outflow for three days, single day 115.6 million, IBIT outflow 95 million; 76,759 is the lower Bollinger band, 78,353 is recent resistance on the chart.
$ETH around 2,295, ETF outflow for the seventh consecutive day, single day 85.3 million, ETHA alone accounts for 74.4 million; but the price is the only one among the three coins to close relatively positive. 2,225 is a key support.
$SOL around 92.7, ETF net outflow last week was 71.47 million, the largest single week since launch; reclaiming 93.5 (upper Bollinger band) is the first step for a trend reversal.
Transfers may be subscriptions or redemptions, or portfolio adjustments, and should not be interpreted solely as selling. The real trigger is Friday's non-farm payrolls.
In short: On-chain is moving assets, ledgers are bleeding, prices are bottoming.
For record-keeping of the market only, not investment advice.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ I'm really fed up! The bears finally saw BTC drop below 76,000, hitting a low of 75,690, but in the afternoon it suddenly surged back near 78,000! ETH also pushed back up near 2,290, and even ZEC followed with a rebound. My short position got trapped this round; after waiting so long for a breakdown, I got caught when it reversed! I still suspect this move might be a bull trap designed to squeeze the shorts! The Democrats took both chambers in the US midterm elections, US stock futures were clearly under pressure earlier, and Brent crude rebounded back near $104. Tonight we have ADP and ISM services data, and Friday's nonfarm payrolls haven't landed yet—where's the certainty of good news? For now, I'm leaning towards a volatile bearish bias, but I won't stubbornly insist on a drop just because I'm trapped! For BTC, let's first see if it can hold its current level; resistance above is at 78,831–79,150; for ETH, keep an eye on 2,300–2,318. If it rallies but then gets pushed down again, I still prefer to look for short opportunities on the rebound!$BCH SHORT SETUP
BCH is facing selling pressure near 272.76. A failed recovery toward 273.00 could give sellers another opportunity.
Entry: 272.70–273.10
TP1: 271.50
TP2: 270.40
TP3: 269.30
SL: 273.90
Look for bearish rejection before execution.#SonyQ2GamingAndMusic Let's talk about Zcash ($ZEC) this afternoon.
As of 15:00 Beijing time on November 4, ZEC is priced at about $1271, up approximately 12.4% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of about $1.07 billion and a market cap of about $21.6 billion, returning to the 10th position by market cap and also trending on CoinGecko's hot search list.
The hype comes from two things: the upcoming NU7 upgrade, which reduces block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds; and the community funding (ZCG) 8% block reward dispute, with the founder of ZODL now supporting a compromise plan. On November 3, large long positions were stopped out, causing ZEC to drop about 11% in one day, but it has basically recovered today.
My view: The upgrade timing is confirmed, but volatility is usually greatest before and after implementation, as the stop-loss two days ago showed. Over 7 days, it still shows a slight decline; this move looks more like a correction plus expectation trading. I am more concerned about whether there will be real changes in on-chain transactions and shielded address usage after the upgrade.
$ZEC Don't get hung up on "why was the prediction wrong this time"; instead, ask a more fundamental question: Do we really have the ability to accurately predict every market fluctuation? The underlying truth of market operation is this: the market is chaotic. Chaos doesn't mean the market is completely random; rather, it is a complex system woven from countless participants, capital, emotions, policies, and industry variables. The variables are endless, and even a tiny disturbance can change the market direction. No one has enough information or computing power to precisely predict the timing, magnitude, and turning points of every fluctuation. Many investors spend their entire lives chasing a goal that doesn't truly exist — finding a method to consistently foresee market trends, obsessing over buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest, trying to catch every market move.