Orbit Post Sitemap
#SK海力士Q3 revenue surpasses 100 trillion KRW for the first time
The boss has something to say
SK Hynix's Q3 revenue reached 104.62 trillion KRW, operating profit 83.33 trillion, both setting quarterly records. Net profit was 39.78 trillion, up 216% year-on-year but below analyst expectations.
There are flaws in the financial report data, but the market gave a strong positive response directly. SKHYNIX surged 6.42%, SKHY rose 4.84%. Why does the market ignore the net profit missing expectations? Because the company gave an extremely optimistic guidance. Management expects memory supply-demand tightness to continue until 2030, with over half of the capacity from 2027 to 2028 already covered by long-term agreements.
I believe this is the strongest shot in the arm for this wave of the memory market. Net profit falling short due to taxes and accounting items is not important; the market is buying the long-term expectation of “shortage until 2030.” If you previously went long around 1250, you can say you have made it through and caught a big gain. Long-term contracts locking capacity mean the cyclical nature is greatly weakened, and valuation logic is shifting toward high-growth stocks.
Market sentiment is fully ignited, with short-term momentum for further gains. But after a big rise, be sure to take profits in batches and secure gains. No need to chase the highs.
BTC had a waterfall drop last night and now we watch if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn’t hold, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Don’t chase the rise or panic sell; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; make sure to set your stop losses on your positions $BTC $ETH $ZEC Earnings Preview｜Microsoft & Google (After Market Tonight)
This week marks a critical window for validating AI capital expenditure returns. The market's tolerance for "spending effectively" has significantly decreased, shifting focus from pure growth rates to: whether cloud business can absorb new capacity, the alignment between CapEx and free cash flow, and the pace of commercialization realization.
Microsoft (FY27 Q1, July-September 2026)
• Consensus: Revenue about $90.7 billion (+16-17%), EPS about $4.72
• Key observation: Whether Azure's constant currency growth can reach or exceed management's previous guidance of 44-45%
• CapEx: This quarter's guidance exceeds $50 billion (last quarter about $41 billion), depreciation and operating costs will continue to pressure cloud gross margin
• Other focuses: Overall growth of Intelligent Cloud, Copilot paid penetration rate, changes in commercial remaining performance obligations (RPO), degree of free cash flow pressure
• Other focuses: Resilience of Search advertising (whether affected by AI search diversion), YouTube ad growth, Gemini enterprise penetration and TPU monetization, overall operating leverage
Current situation assessment:
As long as cloud-related data from both companies is not significantly below expectations, a positive short-term reaction is highly likely. However, AI investment has shifted from "narrative-driven" to "realization validation period," with a narrower margin for error than in the first half of the year — the degree of outperformance, subsequent guidance, and the alignment between CapEx and cash flow are more important than absolute numbers. This outflow does not support an upward trend; I see pressure on bullish sentiment. Yesterday, the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $60,217,800, with only BlackRock's ETHA showing a net outflow.
I analyze trends with three criteria: looking at combined forces, the total outflow reflects weak demand; looking at breadth, only one fund outflowing does not indicate a full retreat; looking at persistence, one day's data cannot determine a reversal. Trend is the best friend; I don't try to time the top based on isolated news.
When judging the $ETH trend, do you focus more on continuous net flows of ETFs or on price and volume?#Moody's Grants rlusd A2 Long-Term Deposit Rating
【Follow Old Chives, Wealth Is Yours】Moody's has given RLUSD an A2 rating! Is Ripple's stablecoin about to start capturing the institutional market?
On October 28, Moody's assigned an A2 long-term deposit rating and a P-1 short-term deposit rating to RLUSD, the US dollar stablecoin issued by Ripple, covering native RLUSD on both the XRP Ledger and Ethereum.
What does A2 actually mean? First, look at the rating itself. Moody's long-term rating of A2 is upper-medium grade, indicating relatively low credit risk, but it is not the highest rating. The short-term rating P-1 is the highest tier in Moody's short-term rating system.
This assessment considered RLUSD's reserve backing arrangements and also evaluated the risks holders might face if the issuer were to go bankrupt or encounter similar situations. For institutions, third-party credit assessments help incorporate stablecoins into more familiar risk management frameworks.
What does this mean for Ripple and RLUSD?
I believe the real focus is on the threshold for institutional adoption. Competition among stablecoins has long been about more than just transaction volume; it also depends on reserve transparency, compliance arrangements, redemption mechanisms, and whether institutions are willing to use it for payments, settlements, and asset collateral.
Obtaining a Moody's rating could make RLUSD easier to discuss during institutional due diligence and risk assessments. However, whether the rating translates into real adoption will depend on issuance scale, circulation volume, and whether payment scenarios continue to expand. $XRP Will the Federal Reserve stay put tonight? Don't rush, the hawkish tone remains 🦅
The FOMC meeting runs from October 27 to 28, and the market consensus is: no rate hike this time. CME gives a 93.4% probability, with rates likely steady at 3.75%—4.00%. All 94 economists surveyed by Reuters agree. 📉
But don't get it wrong, this is not a dovish turn, it's a "hawkish pause." They just hiked in September, and Williams and Jefferson have said there's no need to move consecutively; let's watch the data first. Plus, with US Treasury yields soaring and financial conditions tightening on their own, the Fed is taking a breather. However, September's CPI was still 3.7%, with energy and tariff costs weighing down, so disinflation isn't smooth, meaning the statement and remarks will likely show no easing at all. 🦅
$BTC $ETH $DOOD
No new economic projections this time, so the decision itself carries limited information. The real focus is December: the market prices nearly a 75% chance of at least a 25 basis point hike, and all 100 economists surveyed by Reuters expect action then. Even more exciting is Chair Kevin Walsh's voice—he usually avoids forward guidance, but this time he has to explain "why the pause" and convince people that the fight against inflation remains strong. If interpreted as being too lenient on inflation, the bond market will instantly question credibility. 😬
In short: calm on the surface tonight, but hawks are everywhere beneath. December is the real test. 🎯#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
The FOMC decision in the early hours of October 29 Beijing time carries a core signal not about "whether to raise rates" (the market prices in about a 90% chance of a pause), but about how the Federal Reserve will set the tone for the policy path in December and beyond amid inflation still above target and resilient economic data. This communication stance will have spillover effects through two channels.
The core transmission is through real interest rates and risk appetite, not the rate decision itself. The Fed's policy impacts the crypto market via four paths: liquidity, real yields, the dollar, and risk appetite.
Currently, Bitcoin is under pressure near the $80,000 mark. If the statement is hawkish and strengthens expectations of tightening in December, the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets will rise, and high-beta crypto assets will be the first to bear liquidity contraction pressure.
Hawkish communication may push BTC down to test the $78,000 range; a neutral to slightly dovish tone would help stabilize it between $80,000 and $83,000; only a clear dovish shift can open space for risk appetite recovery.
Within assets, BTC is relatively resilient due to spot ETFs and deep institutional participation, while SOL and altcoins are more sensitive to marginal liquidity changes, with both elasticity and downside risk.
The Q3 GDP and September PCE data released at 20:30 the same day serve as a secondary validation of the FOMC signals. If growth resilience and inflation stickiness are both confirmed, year-end tightening expectations will further solidify, and the crypto market's high volatility window will not close with the decision but may instead be extended.Afternoon review: today's Asian session was basically "holding back".
$BTC has been fluctuating between 80,620 and 81,224 since 8 AM this morning. In the afternoon, hourly trading volume dropped below 11 million USDT, as everyone is waiting for the interest rate decision at 2 AM tonight.
What reassures me a bit is the 4-hour RSI: it was still above 36 at this time yesterday, now it's back around 53, so the short-term is no longer that weak. But the daily MA50 and the middle Bollinger Band around 81,900 overlap, so I won't consider it a reversal until it breaks above that.
My own approach is simple: no adding positions before the rate decision; after the result, I'll see which side breaks first and then decide whether to follow. $ETH is still weaker than BTC, so I continue to just watch.
Data timestamp 10.28 15:37, personal review, not investment advice.
After the rate decision, do you bet on BTC breaking 81,900 first or falling back to 80,600 first?
#BTC #FederalReserveBitcoin’s push above $80,000 looks less like a broad surge in conviction than a mechanical squeeze through a thin derivatives market. $BTC is trading at $80,668, up 0.96% over 24 hours, yet total open interest has fallen and the long/short ratio has slipped to 2.05. Price rising while positioning contracts is a specific signature: leveraged shorts are being removed rather than fresh longs arriving in force. The liquidation data supports that reading. Over 261 minutes, roughly $439,000 of short p$SKHYNIX earnings report explains that performance growth does not necessarily mean the stock price will rise!
SK Hynix's third-quarter revenue reached 104.62 trillion KRW, operating profit 83.33 trillion KRW, and the demand for HBM high-bandwidth memory driven by AI remains strong. However, for the AI chip sector, which has already been highly anticipated by the market, pure performance growth does not necessarily bring new upward momentum.
What I pay more attention to is that the market had already held very high expectations for the AI industry chain's growth. If subsequent performance and future guidance do not bring bigger surprises, capital may choose to take profits. What will truly affect the stock price next is whether next year's performance growth can continue to exceed market expectations and whether AI capital expenditure can maintain the current level.
This earnings report cannot be simply understood as negative, but it is also unwise to blindly be bullish just because profits hit a new high. The AI chip market has reached a point where the market is trading not just on performance, but on how much more growth can be expected in the future.
#SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 $BZ #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动
#Middle East crude oil supply risks re-emerge
Oil prices just fell for two days before violently rebounding! The real big threat in the Middle East chess game is hidden after the midterm elections.
Yesterday, both Brent and WTI fell more than 1.6%, and the market once mistakenly thought the situation was easing; today, it directly reversed and rebounded, with Brent returning above $111.6 and WTI breaking through $102, both rising more than 2% intraday, with intense high-level shakeout.
This round of decline was a false signal: G7's 100 million barrel strategic reserve bottom support, high oil prices suppressing end demand, and Trump's deliberate oil price suppression before the election to maintain approval ratings—all three squeezed out panic premiums. But the Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping volume remains low, and the risk of substantial supply disruption has never been lifted.
More worrisome is the delayed risk: The US and Israel have finalized a "short but intense" strike plan against Iran after the midterm elections. The US military is deploying Patriot air defense systems and replenishing ammunition, and a new aircraft carrier strike group is about to reinforce the Middle East. Currently, the cost of war with Iran has soared to $47 billion, with American households bearing an average additional expense of $2,000.
For the market, a short-term oil price decline can slightly cool inflation expectations, benefiting risk assets; but if the situation escalates after the elections, oil prices could surge to new highs at any time, causing inflation to rebound and directly blocking rate cut space, putting renewed pressure on US stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Do you think oil prices will hit new highs after the election? Leave your judgment in the comments.No rate hike in October is an open card; Wash's speech is the hidden card
At 2 a.m. the Fed's October rate decision will be announced. The market basically knows whether there will be a rate hike or not. Gold is stuck near 4050, and both bulls and bears are waiting for Wash's press conference at 2:30 a.m.
Currently, gold is trading at 4058, back above 4000, with strong resistance between 4080-4100. Gold ETFs continue to be reduced, with funds lowering positions in advance to hedge risks.
The market prices in nearly a 90% probability of no rate change in October. After the September hike, Fed officials have expressed no support for consecutive hikes. The market expects a pause in October and possibly a final hike in December. The numbers are not surprising; the focus is on how Wash will leave the door open for a December hike. He won't state it directly but will signal through his description of inflation.
Three scenarios:
1. Hawkish: Emphasize stubborn inflation, paving the way for a December hike; U.S. Treasuries and the dollar strengthen; gold dips to 4000-4020 support;
2. Neutral avoidance: No clear guidance, market self-games; gold oscillates between 4020-4060, awaiting subsequent GDP and PCE data to break the deadlock;
3. Unexpected dovish: Downplay urgency of December hike; gold may surge to 4080-4100, but with high oil prices, dovish space is limited.
In summary: No rate hike in October is the open card; Wash's speech is the hidden card. It is not recommended to heavily speculate before the decision; wait for the press conference at midnight to settle. $BTC $CORE block production decentralization is one thing, but the team cashing out and dumping tokens on the community is another.
For months, liquidity and token distribution have never been publicly addressed, core contributors quietly wiped "Core" from their Twitter bios, the token price plummeted to an all-time low, and then they turn around and announce "mission accomplished, officially handing over to the community"?
Frankly, it's just packaging a run-away in a more grandiose way. Validators running blocks can't control the treasury and reserve tokens in your hands that can be dumped at any time. If the community were truly in charge, the team wallets would be transparent first; don't use "decentralization" as a get-out-of-jail-free card to abandon the mess.BTC has rebounded as expected to the first target range I mentioned, 81000-81500. So, will it rise or fall next?
Yesterday, I specifically reminded everyone in my post that there were a large number of people shorting around 79000, while spot buyers were quietly accumulating. This kind of situation often leads to a rebound. I warned everyone not to short near 79000, and as expected, the rebound happened on schedule, reaching the first position I mentioned, 81000-81500.
This rebound primarily forced the shorting retail traders to cover their positions. So, what’s next, rise or fall?
First of all, from the current perspective, I do not believe BTC has stopped falling in the mid to long term. After this rebound ends, it will still drop, with 75000 remaining the first position I mentioned. The question is where this rebound will go. The first target range I mentioned, 81000-81500, has already been reached. Next, we should focus on the liquidity above the second target at 82000. This level is likely to be reached because when BTC rebounded near 81200, there was no obvious weakness, and volume did not increase significantly. Spot CVD is still steadily growing, and there is no clear spot outflow.
Given this situation, it’s possible BTC will make another move up to capture liquidity above 82000. If it does, I estimate the rebound will reach the 82400-83000 range. If it gets there and then encounters weakness, I will consider continuing to short.$HYPE rose 4.19% that day, with its ETF seeing an outflow of $4.3 million. HYPE, boosted by Kraken, is at $81.066, up 4.19%, with a market cap of 20.59 billion. The story is solid: Kraken is built on the Hyperliquid execution stack, and HIP-3 weekly volume jumped from 12.4 billion to 19.6 billion (+58%). The HYPE ETF saw an outflow of $4.3 million yesterday.
The only one deleveraging is $UNI at $7.059, down 0.13% in 24 hours, with OI down 1.21%, the minority in the market. Uniswap V3 single-day fees dropped 15.5%, Curve down 21%, DEX overall is contracting, and the decline is due to fundamentals, not sentiment. Price and OI falling together indicates liquidations, not sell-offs; holding the low at 6.944 means consolidation, breaking it would mean a downtrend.
$DOGE, which can't build leverage, is at $0.07829, up 1.46%, with OI only up 0.32%. Futures OI is 14.68 billion coins, and since 10/21 it hasn't surpassed 15 billion. OI returning to 15 billion coins is needed for a sustained rebound; breaking 0.0750 and 0.0700 is just a matter of time. The only standard for divergence is whether there is real new demand in fiat.
HYPE has Kraken, UNI only has declining fees. If you have a sum of money that you won't need in the short term, in the past your options were limited to deposits, money market funds, or short-term bonds. Now, in the stablecoin space, there's a new product: a flexible investment referencing tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds.
Take RWUSD as an example: the page shows an annualized yield of 3.6%, with daily rewards, supporting flexible subscription and two redemption speeds—fast and standard. Fast redemption returns USDC instantly but may incur fees; it can also serve as USDT-margined contract margin in eligible joint margin and unified accounts, and can be used as VIP loan collateral. This design doesn't change the yield but improves capital efficiency—the same funds earn yield while simultaneously occupying margin without needing to move back and forth.
Another approach is position-based rewards: a 2% APR on the net USDC balance, with the condition of accumulating $2,500 USDC-M contract trading volume each weekly cycle. This isn't an investment product but a subsidy on margin costs for those already trading contracts.
So, the 3.6% and 2% rates shouldn't be compared directly. First, ask three questions: Is the money already in this ecosystem? Does it need to be available as margin at any time? Can you accept redemption restrictions?
Two premises: APR is adjusted by the platform according to market conditions and is not a fixed coupon interest; earnings start accumulating from the day after subscription; in extreme market conditions, redemptions may be delayed, restricted, or even suspended. Contract margin itself is a high-risk scenario. $USDCThe kitchen stove fire has already licked the range hood—an annual prep budget of $195 billion to $205 billion. This isn’t just adding more fuel; it’s like pushing the entire cold storage into the furnace. Anyone who cooks knows, the fiercer the fire, the more it tests the chef’s control over the heat; when the fire is too strong, the original flavor of the ingredients is easiest to burn.
Let’s start with the ratio. The main dish of this established restaurant has always been search ads—precise cuts, quick serving, and thick profit margins, forming the base flavor that holds the entire menu down. Cloud services are the side dishes—beautifully plated and impressive on the table, but the most labor- and time-consuming in the kitchen. Intelligent computing power is the extra spicy chili added in recent years; customers get addicted with one bite, but if you keep adding it, the kitchen’s prep costs can never be pushed back down.
Here lies the problem: the main dish is still steadily delivered, but the side dishes require you to first pay to replace the entire stove. Once prep costs rise, the profit margin pot is destined to lose a layer of glaze. Anyone in the restaurant business knows the renovation period looks the worst—tables and chairs aren’t fully occupied yet, but depreciation has already started to bite.
Now look at cash flow. The kitchen’s cash flow depends on same-day income and same-day payment, but this computing power stove is a long-term account of three to five years; money is paid upfront, income comes back slowly. It’s like buying a whole container of truffles six months in advance; customers come table by table, but the truffles age day by day. The heavier the prep, the longer the account period, the tighter the kitchen’s hands.
What really matters isn’t the volume of growth, but the rhythm of serving dishes. In the cloud business, increased capacity doesn’t mean the seats are full, and full seats don’t mean customers are willing to pay that price. No matter how good the cuts or how steady the heat, once unit prices start discounting to attract traffic, the heavy upfront investment becomes dead weight on the cutting board.
But if you ask whether this set of dishes is made wrong? Not really. Chili placed right is the soul; too much chili burns through the stomach. The current problem with this stove is: the chili is already in the pot, customers haven’t all arrived yet, and the main dish still has to be supplied nonstop, not a single spoon can stop. The ratio of the whole table’s dishes is no longer decided by the chef—it’s pushed forward by the kitchen’s never-stopping fierce fire.
Fierce fire makes good dishes, but also burns through the pot bottom first. #alphabetq3cloudandai$XRP
Whales hold 68.5% of XRP, hitting a new high since the end of 2022. It sounds like someone is bottom-fishing, but the price doesn't agree: down nearly 14% this month, nearly 30% this year, still more than halfway away from returning to $2.
What’s more painful is that this number doesn’t necessarily mean "smart money is buying." Exchange cold wallets, ETF custody, and Ripple’s own treasury all count as whales. Money moving from one hand to another can also increase the share — the ledger is busy, but buying pressure may not actually come.
The ETF side is even colder: cumulative inflows are stuck below the peak, with most days seeing almost no new money entering. The price is still below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, underperforming BTC, ETH, and SOL this year. The higher the whale pile, the more it looks like someone is holding on, and the more it looks like someone is waiting for a reason that won’t come on its own.
The whale peak in 2022 eventually reversed, but only after lawsuits, elections, and regulatory easing. Concentrated chips aren’t a price-up button, just lonely background noise. To really turn bullish, new money must push the ETF past the peak, and the price must close cleanly above 1.40; breaking below 1.28 would make this 68.5% look more like a relocation than a belief.
$BTC $ETH
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 Seagate's next quarter guidance directly points to over $9 per share, but after hours it dropped more than 5%, $STX I see the chips are running here.
The earnings report released around 4 a.m. Beijing time this morning showed adjusted EPS of $7.68, market expectation was $7.39, revenue about $4.2 billion.
Next quarter revenue guidance is $4.7–4.9 billion, EPS $9.00–9.40, both higher than expectations (about $4.56 billion, $8.61).
On Tuesday regular trading, it first rose 3.67% to close at 667.85, then after hours dropped to about 631, a difference of nearly $37 in and out.
Honestly, the numbers are flawless, the AI data center needing large capacity hard drives line is still there.
The problem is it has already retraced more than 40% from the yearly high of about 1145, and recently Wells Fargo cut the target price from 1180 to 865, the market was already divided, a good earnings report just gives people an exit point.
Tonight at 21:30 market open, I'll first see if it can hold around 650, which is roughly Tuesday's low.
If it opens below 630 and can't recover, this move is more than just taking profits on good news.
If you want to get in, wait until the first hour is over, this kind of gap down is less risky if you are a bit late.
Do you think this is selling on good earnings news, or is the storage cycle nearing its end?
$STX $WDC $MU
#SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 The rating covers native RLUSD on both the XRP Ledger and Ethereum, a detail that gives me a bit of a familiar feeling from the previous round: it's still the same asset extending across multiple chains, but this time what's on display isn't on-chain popularity, but credit issues.
Moody’s assigned an A2 and P-1 deposit rating, weighing the reserve backing against the risk exposure to holders in the event of issuer bankruptcy. I think this is more important than "just another institution's endorsement." Previously, when looking at cross-chain layouts, I tended to first look at coverage; this time it's different. No matter how widely the asset is distributed, the underlying credit of the issuer cannot be bypassed, and more chains do not equal risk diversification.
My judgment is that this is more like a signal that the industry is shifting from an expansion narrative to credit pricing, rather than proof of scale. What I want to see next is whether this set of traditional financial evaluation language can truly enter the asset choices of on-chain users, rather than just staying in news headlines.There has never been a note on the blueprint saying "just casually add some Bitcoin." When VanEck writes a 2% BTC allocation into WBMO's load-bearing system, with an adjustable range of 1% to 5%, this is not decorative lines—this is formally incorporating a highly volatile material into the structural calculation manual. Franklin's two products are even more aggressive: 95% US stocks as the main framework, 5% BTC as the core tube, and they continuously inject dividends as operating cash flow into the BTC layer. Do you understand? Traditional asset management is reclassifying Bitcoin from a "roof decoration component" to a "seismic energy dissipation node."
I've done structural design for twenty years, and the thing I fear most is the client saying "just put it in casually." Any material entering the load-bearing system must answer three questions: how is the node anchored, how is the load transferred, and how is long-term creep controlled. BTC is now facing the same set of review logic. 2% looks like a partition wall, but adjustable up to 5% means a reserved structural expansion joint—today it's a non-load-bearing partition, tomorrow it could become a shear wall. Reinvesting dividends to buy BTC is equivalent to pouring the building's operating income back into the foundation slab, a typical self-strengthening process; if the construction sequence is wrong, no one will cover the cracks in the post-pour joint.
What really made me spread out the blueprint was that term: standard practice. What does standardization mean in construction? It means it has entered the code, has acceptance standards, and the general contractor dares not change it casually. The linkage of US stock Token targets is essentially two units sharing the same pile foundation on the same master plan—if the bearing layers of BTC and Nasdaq differ in settlement, the upper structure will crack no matter how beautiful it is. The so-called multi-asset portfolio is not just dumping materials into a mixer; every beam's reinforcement must be recalculated. Franklin feeding BTC with dividends is very much like prestressing: it can suppress cracks in the short term, but once the anchor slips, the loss is instantaneous.
The adjustment knob from 1% to 5%, in my eyes, is the jack stroke in post-tensioning. Too small means insufficient prestress, too large crushes the concrete. Those who cram BTC into traditional portfolio managers are still at the stage of "adding a structural column for peace of mind," far from the level of producing structural calculation manuals. But the direction is set—when asset management starts using dividends, the most conservative cash flow, to pour into the most aggressive asset layer, it means the geotechnical survey report has already implicitly approved the bearing capacity of this site.
The blueprint's review stamp hasn't been affixed yet, but the construction team has already entered the site. #vaneckfranklinbtcetfs$JUP
Solana’s DeFi ecosystem depends on more than fast transactions; users also need efficient ways to discover liquidity and execute swaps. Jupiter has built its identity around trading infrastructure within that ecosystem. The next stage of its story depends on sustained usage, competition among aggregators, and the value its token captures from ecosystem activity. Strong product adoption and token demand are not automatically the same thing.A 24-month lock-up period means that core contributors and early supporters cannot unlock at TGE, which many people see as a positive for $PREDICT.
On the other hand, I think this sense of security is easily overestimated: locking these two types of holders does not mean there is no circulation pressure from other allocations; delaying the release only adjusts the timing of supply and does not automatically create demand. I am more interested in seeing what indispensable use cases the token has, rather than just giving it extra credit based on the lock-up period.Noticed that $BTC has nearly $38 million of spot sell pressure settled around the 82,500 level.
This batch of orders has lingered on the market for over 96 hours, coinciding exactly with the eve of the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, making the intention quite intriguing.
From a four-hour chart perspective, this position is very tricky. It is not only the top trendline resistance of the current downtrend channel but also a clear FVG (Fair Value Gap) left from earlier.
It is foreseeable that a large number of technical traders will choose to position short orders here.
But beware of the main force's "liquidity hunting" tactic: if the price truly approaches the daily resistance, this obvious "sell wall" will very likely be instantly withdrawn.
Once the wall is removed, those who placed shorts near 82,500 will be forced to become the prime "short squeeze fuel" for this rebound.
$ETH $SOL
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $BTC
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that cryptocurrencies can help the dollar maintain its top position. I find that interesting, but this can't be directly translated as a bullish signal for Bitcoin, right? I understand that the real beneficiary might be the dollar stablecoins, and whether funds are willing to buy Bitcoin involves quite a few other factors. It might have a slight positive effect on Bitcoin sentiment, and if the price moves up now, some might credit her for it, but I think that's a bit of a stretch. Is this praise for the crypto space, or is it about finding new channels for the dollar?Conclusion first: $CEG perpetual futures traded only 1,252 contracts in 24 hours, about 320,000 USD. On the same day, CEG spot shares traded 3.18 million shares, about 820 million USD. The perpetual futures volume is only 0.04% of the spot volume.
At 18:00 on October 27 (Beijing time), OKX launched CEG/USDT perpetual futures, along with BAC, IBKR, and MPWR. On the same day, Constellation officially announced it secured a conditional loan commitment of up to 5 billion USD from the U.S. Department of Energy for upgrading 8 nuclear power plants totaling 1.1GW. The spot price that day peaked at 265.78, closed at 258.98, up 2.58%.
What really matters is the volume distribution: in the first 6 hours after launch, 1,166 contracts traded, accounting for 93% of the daily volume; in the following 15 hours, only 86 contracts traded, averaging about 1,500 USD per hour. With 20x leverage, 1 contract equals 1 CEG share, open interest is only 131 contracts, 34,000 USD. The best bid is 259.11, best ask 261.28, spread 0.84%, and the top 20 bid levels total only 12,900 USD. The four new contracts combined traded about 1 million USD on their first day.
If you want to leverage this news, the first question isn’t whether the direction is right, but whether there will be anyone to take the other side when you want to close your position. Do you think contracts of this volume can still be leveraged?If the FOMC really holds steady tonight, then the market's early trading is probably not about "no change in interest rates." Have you noticed that the longer BTC hovers around 80,000, the more it seems like it's waiting for an answer that's already a foregone conclusion? The most direct feeling from watching the market these past two days is: it looks calm on the surface, but underneath it's not easy. BTC's current price is roughly between 79,330 and 79,800, with a 24-hour high touching 80,291, and an intraday pullback ranging from 0.54% to 0.76%. The monthly cumulative decline is close to 5%, marking three consecutive weeks of losses. The Fear and Greed Index has slipped from 50 to 48, landing in the lower neutral zone; sentiment is neither panicked nor optimistic. What really concerns me is the structural divergence in interest rate expectations. The probability of the FOMC keeping rates unchanged this time is as high as 90.6% to 91%, a figure that is almost fully priced in, meaning the decision itself is unlikely to be a directional driver. But the probability of a rate hike in December has suddenly risen to nearly 80%, and this is the part the market is repricing. In other words, the trade is not on "no change tonight," but on "possibly tighter later." This delayed expectation shift is most likely to unsettle short-term positions because prices won't drop all at once but will repeatedly wear down the patience of those chasing longs. About $135 million was liquidated in the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for $91.74 million. The leverage longs clearly showed signs of retreating before the decision. BTC is probing back and forth around 80,000, while ETH and altcoins show weaker resilience, indicating risk appetite has not returned and funds prefer toThis post aims to answer a question a friend asked me about configuring public chain targets.
Question: Which do you think is better to configure in terms of public chains, $SOL or $ETH?
In my view, sol's long-term performance will be better than eth's. I'll just give some very simple reasons for reference. These are just some potential reasons; I won't talk about fundamentals for now.
I'm not denying eth, I just think sol's price performance will be better than eth's.
1) eth's market cap is 4.8 times that of sol, so purely from a market cap perspective, eth's growth rate will be lower than sol's;
2) From the team perspective, I still believe sol's US-based team is more proactive, and sol is a native US public chain. The US remains the center on-chain;
3) Regarding the community, sol's community activity seems much stronger to me than eth's;
4) From a technical perspective, looking at eth's performance over the past few years, it's basically stablecoin-like, no rise or fall, while sol's performance is better;
5) Whether it's meme, rwa, or stablecoins and payments, the sol ecosystem gives me the impression of rapid growth, while eth feels like slow growth, but none of these areas are anywhere near saturation yet.
6) eth's team seems a bit too grand, trying to solve everything—execution, scaling, security, privacy—because it needs to safeguard L2, but L2 gives back very little in return. I don't really like this kind of effort without reward. Sun Yuchen secretly hoarding is worth a closer look
I came across an interesting news flash: 10 hours ago, an address linked to Sun Yuchen withdrew 4.65 trillion $PEPE from Poloniex. I specifically checked Arkham's data and was shocked—his marked and inferred wallets together already hold about $51.25 million worth of $PEPE, accounting for 2.82% of the total supply, likely making him the largest individual holder.
Some say he lost 98% trading TRUMP and isn't skilled. But from another perspective: someone who suffered a huge loss on TRUMP then turns around and puts over fifty million dollars into PEPE—is that just playing around? Top players' moves are often more honest than their words.
Looking at another set of data: some dormant large PEPE holders moved 2.27 trillion $PEPE in the past two days, and another large holder deposited over 36.6 billion $PEPE to Coinbase, interpreted as possibly preparing to sell. These two events together are even more interesting: old chips are loosening, but new big money is stepping in. Chip turnover is often the classic script before a market rally.
Of course, following the big whales is not a guaranteed win—they have unlimited ammo, we don't. My approach is to use their moves as directional reference, but manage my own position. At least in terms of direction, the richest group is voting with their actions, which carries more weight than any analyst's talk.$ZEC
Privacy coins are still the strongest in this round. ZEC turns ten years old today, currently priced at 1310, up nearly 7% in 24 hours, while BTC only rose 1.5% in the same period.
At the end of September, it surged to 1700, was pushed back to 1050 in mid-October, and now has climbed back above 1300, with its market cap ranking 9th, pushing HYPE and DOGE down.
What’s driving it isn’t just the birthday atmosphere. The co-founder proposed redirecting future $125 million in block rewards into a developer fund, securing a long-term financial support for the network. Along with the NU7 upgrade on November 5, the rush of funds is understandable.
I looked at it around 1100 last round but didn’t buy because it was too slow. Looking back now, the privacy narrative always accelerates only after you confirm it. This time, I tend to believe it’s real money betting on it; this run before the upgrade doesn’t look like pure hype.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 "NO" because
☑️Cloud & Search Ads⬆️ (revenue ~ $29B). However, AI infrastructure depreciation ⬆️ surged in Q3 (Capex⬆️ to $195B–$205B) + expensive AI/Gemini operating fees have eroded profit margins
☑️Non-operating profit in Q3
- Private capital markets did not record record valuation increases (like the $99B profit in Q2)
- Mainly from bank deposit interest + valuation of technology/startup investment portfolios (maintained at a flat/stable level, not booming as before, causing the market value assessment of the Equity Securities segment not to increase significantlyThe leverage lending structure of the current three major mainstream assets has become extremely skewed: $BTC long loans are 1,346.95 coins versus shorts at only 76.29 coins; $ETH longs at 16,200 coins against shorts at 878.16 coins; $SOL longs at 105,000 coins versus shorts at 4,012 coins. The long-to-short lending ratios reach approximately 17.7x, 18.4x, and 26.2x respectively. This is not ordinary directional bullishness but a "one-sided crowding" at the capital structure level. What is truly worth cautioning is not just the abundance of longs, but the manner in which longs are leveraged. The buying pressure for these three coins is continuously building with leverage, and the borrowing-to-buy ratio keeps climbing, indicating that the current rise is not steadily driven by spot capital but by continuously stacking leveraged funds. This structure has a distinct characteristic: when prices rise, buying power is extremely strong because leverage amplifies the efficiency of every incremental gain; yet its vulnerability lies in the same place—once the market reverses, a large number of leveraged longs will simultaneously trigger stop-losses and liquidations at similar price levels, causing rapid declines and long lower shadows with sharp wicks. The market often underestimates that many equate "long dominance" directly with "trend safety." On the contrary, when long lending suppresses shorts by more than tenfold or even twentyfold, it means shorts have been largely squeezed out, leaving thin opposing positions. At this point, price continuation upward lacks the boosting force of short covering, while dense leveraged liquidation zones accumulate below. In other words, this is not a healthy sign of strong longs but a tense state where upward fuel and downward risks are simultaneously amplified. In one sentenceWhen institutional risk budgets rebound, do infrastructure tokens benefit more? The Nasdaq rises driven by AI heavyweight stocks, indicating the market is willing to revalue the long-term tech narrative; but oracle demand ultimately depends on on-chain finance and cross-chain activity. If actual calls and integrations increase, I will raise the weighting on fundamentals-driven factors; if only tech stock valuations expand while on-chain demand stagnates, narrative premiums will be hard to sustain. On the morning of the FOMC decision day, market trading volume was extremely low. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network reached $134 million, with long position liquidations at $62.26 million and short position liquidations at $71.5 million. In the double liquidation scenario, short position liquidations surpassed longs, indicating that short-selling funds were also hit, and the market leverage clearing is nearing its end.
BTC is currently trading around 81,000, with the 80,000 level continuing to see repeated tug-of-war. There is a buy support of 73 million at the 79,300 level below, while heavy sell pressure exists at the 81,000 round number above. The liquidation map shows that breaking below 76,566 will trigger $1.572 billion in long liquidations; breaking above 84,036 will trigger $1.068 billion in short liquidations.
ETH plunged more than 6% to around 2,350, with 2,285 as the short-term critical level; failure to hold this at close will expose the 2,250-2,200 range below. SOL dropped about 5.5%, losing the 100 level, corresponding to a liquidation amount of approximately 31 million; 98.5 is the support baseline, and a break below points to 93-96.
The core market variables hinge on tonight's FOMC decision and subsequent data. The strategy remains to short on rebounds: BTC can be shorted when it rebounds to 81,000-81,500 and meets resistance; if volume breaks below 79,300, follow the trend to short. ETH and SOL move in tandem and should be shorted accordingly. Leverage should be kept within 5x, closely watching closing prices: BTC at 79,300, ETH at 2,285, SOL at 98.5; intraday breaches do not count, capital preservation is priority.
#BTC spot ETF capital flow fluctuates, can market buying stabilize? #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降
Revenue hit a record high but net profit declined, with the profit drop including a one-time loss of $67 million, as well as structural expenses and increased credit provisions;
Crypto revenue shrank significantly, event contracts took over the growth baton, but they contribute to "growth contribution" rather than "profit contribution," and whether this can continue depends on regulation and event supply.$ETH At noon I was watching that 25x short position, and now looking again, it's still floating at a loss. 9,700 ETH, the person who opened the position has strong hands.
But what really made me pause is the line below: 2205. If it breaks below here, the forced liquidation strength of longs on mainstream exchanges could pile up to around 900 million USD.
What does 900 million mean? The price is now 2353, just 6 points away from this level. A little more downward stretch and it will get there.
There's another strange thing: an ancient address holds 45,000 ETH, worth over 100 million, and three hours ago just sent 5,000 to an exchange. When an old whale transfers coins to an exchange, it's usually not for sightseeing.
So this market situation is very twisted: on one side, longs are clinging to the liquidation line, a big crowd of longs queued up waiting to die; on the other side, the old whale is carrying coins to the counter; in the middle, there's a 25x short position, floating at a loss but not liquidated.
I don't dare say which way it will go. But it has dropped 4 points in 7 days, bounced 2 points today, volume is just normal level, I don't believe this rebound has strength.
The area below 2205 is where the real battle between bulls and bears happens. Let's watch first and talk when it gets stuck there. $ETH The biggest drawback of tokenized funds has always been that you can buy but not sell freely. On October 26, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission approved the first batch of tokenized funds offered to the public, allowing secondary trading on licensed virtual asset platforms. On the same day, two money market funds from China Asset Management (Hong Kong) opened 7×24 hour trading. This is the world's first public tokenized fund to have secondary circulation on a regulated platform.
Previously, the selling point was only that shares were recorded on-chain, but to exit, you still had to go through subscription and redemption. If it was the weekend or the underlying assets' market was closed, you could only wait. The secondary market fills this gap: you can directly buy and sell with other participants, and trading time is no longer restricted by traditional financial business hours.
However, around-the-clock trading does not mean transactions occur at net asset value (NAV) all the time; prices are still constrained by liquidity, and if you urgently want to sell late at night, you still have to pay the spread.
The significance is not just having two more products, but connecting two systems: the fund manages the underlying assets, shares are recorded on-chain, the platform handles matching, and regulators oversee pricing and disclosure.
Next, there are three questions: Can deep liquidity be achieved outside trading hours? Will the order book prices deviate from NAV for a long time? How to balance convenience and underlying liquidity? Once this works, the compliant infrastructure supporting $BTC and $ETH will benefit, and stablecoins and tokenized treasury bills will also be pushed into the same pool.
Ordinary people don’t need to rush to new products but should watch the signals: public funds are starting to have 24/7 turnover on-chain, widening the compliant channels for entering and exiting the digital asset market.
Markets carry risks; make your own decisions.Seeing this, I feel a bit of familiarity from the last cycle: when an industry starts aggressively reporting results, the market tends to treat the entire concept chain as beneficiaries. After being involved for a while, I tend to first ask, who exactly is pocketing the profits?
In the material, SK Hynix's Q3 revenue reached 104.62 trillion KRW, surpassing 100 trillion for the first time; operating profit grew 632.1% year-over-year, and the stock price rose 10.14% intraday. This time, unlike merely speculating on expectations, AI infrastructure demand has already been reflected in the suppliers' revenue and profits.
My judgment is that this is a strong signal for AI hardware, but it cannot be directly counted as a benefit for the on-chain AI sector. Chip manufacturers have supply-demand and financial report support, but tokens still need to prove how value flows back; if storage shortages persist, applications relying on hardware might actually face cost pressures. Viewed in the cycle, I prefer to see this as part of the industry's realization rather than a new starting line for all AI narratives. Next, focus on revenue realization and avoid over-imagining concepts.#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
Google Cloud's 82% growth is real, but the free cash flow of -5.8 billion is also real.
The return on AI investment is already visible on the income statement, but the cost is mortgaging the balance sheet and cash flow statement.
The concentrated release of depreciation in 2027 will be the first "stress test" for cloud profitability. Q3 cloud growth market expectations are 90%—100%, but that is investment bank forecasts, not company guidance.Hyperliquid whale real-time monitoring data overview 🐳
Attention. The giant whale market shows an extremely tangled "long-short double kill" battle.
According to the latest monitoring, the total position of the giant whale reaches $10.989 billion, with short positions holding $5.91 billion, significantly higher than the long positions of $5.079 billion. The shorts hold the advantage in total positions.
But the strange thing is the profit and loss ratio 📊: longs currently have unrealized gains as high as $182 million 📈, while shorts are experiencing unrealized losses of $128 million 📉. This indicates that although the short positions are heavy, the current market price favors the longs.
Even more interesting is the funding fee: longs are paying out money ($66.08 million) to maintain their positions, while shorts are receiving money (earning $112 million). Although shorts collect interest, they are losing principal and face the risk of further short squeezes at any time ⚠️.
The current market logic is very clear: the shorts are heavily positioned at the border, but the longs have stronger pull in spot/market. If the price continues to push upward, these $5.9 billion short positions could trigger a stampede liquidation at any time. However, longs endure daily funding fee losses, and if momentum stalls, they may quickly retreat.
At this stage, the giant whale's trump card is already on the table; it’s a matter of who can hold out until the end 🛡️.Hynix's financial report gets more interesting the more you look at it; the market never really cares about the book numbers, but the real trends. $SKHYNIX $SNDK $BTC
Q2 net profit and EPS both exceeded expectations, but revenue didn't keep up; profits were mainly supported by the depreciation of the Korean won and selling idle assets, yet the stock price fell. Q3 net profit and EPS missed targets, but revenue and operating profit both hit new highs; the net profit decline was purely due to exchange losses from the won's appreciation, and the stock price actually rose. Q2 seemed like a consolation pill for shareholders, but Q3's core business was strong enough that it wasn't needed. Brother Feng predicted losing one round, but $SKHY's average cost is $138, and the stock price won.
Looking at operating profit and revenue, Hynix is still accelerating growth, but the operating profit growth rate is already slower than revenue growth, and profit margin expansion is slowing. This indicates AI storage is indeed still in short supply, but the gap may be narrowing; Q4 data still needs to be closely watched. Looking at Hynix alone, AI storage still has room, and we will cross-verify once SanDisk's financial report is out. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 $BTC is showing losses across the board! The three short positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL have a combined unrealized loss of about 17 million, with over 11 million collected in funding fees. Holding such large positions at 5–7x leverage, relying on thick margin and funding fees to fight a long battle, betting on a market turnaround—ordinary people really shouldn't copy this.$ETH Big Brother Maji's ETH long position just increased from 82 to 232 tokens.
After the first deposit on 10/18, 13,211.79 USDC was credited, and within 18 minutes, he added another 150 ETH at an average price of about 2,362, adding approximately $354,000 to the position.
The total position is now about $548,000, with a liquidation price of 2,317.56, only about $43 away from the current price. For every $1 drop in ETH, the account incurs an unrealized loss of about $232.
Before reaching the liquidation line, will he continue to add funds or reduce the position first?"Meme fever is cooling down, but launchpads remain money printers. There is a huge difference in mechanisms between platform fees and returns to token holders.
$PUMP: On April 28, 2026, about $370 million worth of PUMP was burned in a one-time event, after which the buyback ratio was reduced from 100% of net income to 50%, with the other half used for operations. Buybacks are still ongoing but have been halved from their peak intensity, and the token itself still lacks rigid use cases.
$RAY: 12% of daily trading fees are used to buy back RAY. Calculated at a 0.25% fee rate, the effective buyback is about 0.03% of trading volume. However, note that the repurchased RAY is held in a public protocol address rather than being burned, which is fundamentally different from "permanent deflation." The advantage is that it consumes liquidity from the entire Solana network, not just a single launchpad.
$BONK: No longer a "zero-revenue Meme." Ecosystem products do generate fee income, and part of that income is used to buy back and burn BONK. However, in July 2026, BonkDAO suffered a $20 million governance attack and was subsequently delisted by Upbit, exposing structural governance risks in the Meme ecosystem.
Summary:
PUMP is "buyback intensity halved from peak, token still lacks rigid use cases"; RAY is "underlying hub consumes liquidity from the entire network, but repurchased tokens are not burned"; BONK is "has a buyback mechanism, but governance attacks and exchange delisting severely damaged its trust foundation."
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $KAS
Kaspa’s proof-of-work approach offers a different route to scaling than the account-based designs used by many smart-contract networks. Its blockDAG architecture aims to support faster block production while preserving core proof-of-work principles. The challenge is turning that technical distinction into broader utility. Developer activity, security, decentralization, and sustained user demand will matter more than architecture alone.SK Hynix's earnings report today was quite good, marking a strong start. Revenue reached 104 trillion KRW, with an operating profit margin of 80%. The overall average selling price of DRAM rose nearly 30% quarter-over-quarter, NAND increased about 25%, and the price hikes combined with a higher proportion of premium products jointly drove profitability. If Samsung and SanDisk's upcoming earnings reports follow this trend, we can expect a solid rebound cycle in the market.
The number of long-term contract customers increased from about 10 to 14, with typical contract durations of 5 years, and some customers are negotiating extensions. This covers over 50% of total capacity through 2027–28, maintaining a similar ratio in the mid-term. Including volumes under negotiation, it can even be considered that DRAM and HBM volumes are "effectively sold out" through 2029. Additionally, price and volume negotiations for 2027 HBM with major customers have been completed.
The full-year shareholder return plan is about 100 trillion KRW, which includes the 40 trillion KRW buyback announced in August and recently completed; this is not an additional 100 trillion KRW buyback today, but the figure is eye-catching enough for news headlines.
This earnings report shows NAND pricing remains strong, and enterprise SSD demand is improving the product mix. This weakens concerns that "SanDisk is about to face a simultaneous downturn in demand across the entire industry."
In the future, after SanDisk's stock price rebounds to a high level, SK Hynix's expansion of high-end NAND and enterprise SSD supply can also be interpreted as competitive pressure on SanDisk.
$SKHYNIX $SKHY $SNDK #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 A 19% rise and a 14% drop happened on the same day
$BEAT is now quoted at 0.08616.
The 24-hour increase shows 19.1%.
How is this number calculated: the increase is based on the price 24 hours ago.
The 13.9% drop during that one hour is not included in this 19.1%.
At the moment it triggered: about 18.85 million USDT was traded in that hour.
That's 2.4 times the volume during its previous rise.
In other words, more people traded when the price went down.
The daily increase only records the start and end points.
$SOL moved from 100.12 to 100.15 in two hours.
It reached 101.23 in between, then almost returned to the original point.
$LINK traded 2.56 million USDT in the first two hours.
The price only moved 0.006.
Increased trading volume does not equal a directional move.
It just records the number of back-and-forth trades.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#$BEAT $SOL Robinhood’s Q3 results show why record revenue doesn’t always translate into stronger profits.
Crypto revenue fell 55%, while event contracts climbed past $170M and operating expenses grew faster than total revenue.
The business is diversifying, but the real test is whether that growth can translate into more consistent earnings across different market cycles. 📊
#RobinhoodQ3ProfitFalls I am A Cheng. Last night, Bitcoin rose from 79,000 to 81,000. What exactly influenced this increase?
This time, BTC rebounded from around $79,000 to around $81,000, an increase of about 2.53%. The most supported explanation currently is: a rebound in US stock risk appetite, a drop in international oil prices, and renewed inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.
But this was not driven by any single major positive news.
1. The three most likely factors driving the rise
1. Strengthening of the US tech sector, rebound in risk appetite
On October 27, the US stock market was boosted by enthusiasm for AI-related investments, improving market risk appetite. Bitcoin, as a risk asset, also received some support.
This is one of the most direct macro explanations for the rebound that night.
2. Drop in international oil prices, easing inflation concerns
Oil prices fell that night, reducing market worries about energy prices pushing up inflation.
The transmission logic is: oil price drop → easing inflation pressure expectations → reduced interest rate concerns → support for risk assets.
However, this does not mean the Federal Reserve has shifted to easing.
3. Renewed net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs
On October 26 (Monday), US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $110 million, ending two consecutive trading days of net outflows.
This indicates improved institutional demand, providing support for the rebound.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $BTC ZEC 18 hours 1,272.6 → 1,306.1 (+2.6%), high at 1,329.3. 24h liquidation $3.62 million, shorts $3.29 million accounting for 91%, a typical short squeeze. But OI only increased by 5.4%, trading volume was 0.81 times the 14-day average, and at the new high of 1,329, OI was actually lower than at midnight — volume, price, and open interest diverged. Judgment: short squeeze ending, high-level turnover. Key level 1,290 (MA20), breaking below and OI rising indicates weakness; new high with OI declining is a bearish divergence #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 , not investment advice.Predict.fun has turned the story into a multiple-choice question this time: announcing a total supply of 1 billion $PREDICT tokens, with 16% unlocked at TGE; 70 million tokens airdropped in the first season, users can claim 35% immediately or lock for 12 months to receive all. The tokens haven't reached the claiming stage yet, but the trade-offs are already in front of the users.
I think this arrangement is somewhat favorable for short-term supply constraints but shouldn't be directly interpreted as a price boost. Early supporters and core contributors lock their tokens for 24 months first, then release them monthly over 36 months, delaying this portion of chips entering the market; however, 16% is still unlocked at TGE, so the immediate supply cannot be ignored. The airdrop choice between two options places immediate liquidity and long-term waiting on opposite ends of the scale.
The moral of this story, as I see it, is that locking tokens can postpone the test but cannot replace real demand. Do you think the outcome will be more people accepting to wait, or would they rather only claim 35% and keep liquidity?