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On the eve of the FOMC: Don't bet two days as one direction
The real challenge this week is two days, not choosing one direction:
1) Wednesday, October 28, 14:00 Eastern Time, FOMC decision. The probability of "no change" on Polymarket has reached 94%, up from 52% on October 14. 80,000 was smashed three times, but the group on-chain never stopped
Watching $BTC hover around 80,000 back and forth, honestly, it's a bit frustrating.
Four consecutive daily red candles, three consecutive weekly red candles, 80,000 has turned from "support" into a meat grinder of bulls and bears stabbing each other. The forums are full of voices saying "80,000 will break," ETFs have seen a net outflow of $67.41 million since October, and the sentiment is indeed bleak. But if you only look at this side, you will most likely miss what’s happening underneath.
$BTC: Under obvious bearish news, there’s a very strong hidden line
First, admit that the short-term structure is bearish. The price is running below the mid-to-long-term moving averages, rebound highs keep dropping, 68% of derivatives longs have been liquidated, and the long-short ratio is "artificially high," indicating more people are holding positions than actively attacking. None of this is false.
But what’s really worth pausing to look at is another set of data.
The 365-day simple moving average lies between 79,200 and 80,500. Over the past 9 days, the price has been tightly pressed between 80,000 and 86,000, and the 30-day volatility has compressed from 13% to 6%. When volatility converges to this extent, it usually means not "the market is over," but "the direction is about to burst out."
More importantly: ETFs are selling, whales are buying. CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin whales have net accumulated about 243,000 $BTC in less than three months, worth over $20 billion at current prices. The one-year whale holding change indicator narrowed from -282k $BTC to -39k $BTC, and selling pressure has been exhausting since July. What you see on the chart is 80,000 being repeatedly smashed; on-chain, you see wallets holding 10 to 10,000 coins accumulating at the fastest pace since February this year.
This is not a "call to bottom-fish," but an objective divergence: marginal sellers are decreasing, large holders are increasing, and the price is pressed near the moving averages. This structure won’t last forever. Glassnode frames corporate treasuries and ETFs’ cost basis between 80,000–81,500, meaning this level is not just a psychological barrier but a real cost line of substantial holdings. If it breaks, they hurt; if it holds, they have reason to defend.
$ETH: The supply story is real, but it lacks a "spark"
On the $ETH side, the chip structure is indeed solid.
Staking volume hit a record, about 43.7 to 43.8 million $ETH locked in validators, accounting for 35% to 36% of supply. Exchange balances have been squeezed to a historic low of 3.49%. To translate: the chips that can be dumped anytime are visibly decreasing.
But I don’t intend to overstate this story. Supply tightening is a "condition," not a "trigger." October spot $ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of about $955 million, and BlackRock’s products also had large outflows; short-term marginal buyers are indeed weak. The price halved from the August high to around 2,300, not because staking isn’t enough, but because fewer people are willing to bid at the margin.
So the significance of 2,300 is not that it’s an "iron bottom," but that it’s the psychological referee line for bulls and bears this round. Closing above it on the daily chart means the supply squeeze logic is still on the table; closing below means short-term trend strength must be acknowledged. Repeated bottom tests and rebounds in the past indicate funds are absorbing in this area, but absorption doesn’t mean immediate rally. What’s being ground down is never the price, but people’s patience.
The macro card: don’t wait for rate cuts, wait for "expectations to be fully priced in"
The original post said "just missing a macro catalyst," which is half right, but the direction needs correction.
On October 28 FOMC, CME and Polymarket show a hold rate probability between 87% and 94%. The market has long stopped pricing in a rate cut in October. The real suppressing variable is that the probability of a rate hike in December remains above 80%. In other words, the macro "bad news" has been mostly priced in but not fully realized.
If the FOMC holds steady as expected and the wording isn’t more hawkish than the market has digested, it’s not a "positive" for risk assets but rather "the hanging sword being lowered." What $BTC and $ETH need now is precisely a window of "uncertainty removal," not a rate cut.
My position discipline, clearly stated
No all-in on the left side, no chasing highs on the right side—this is my own rule, and I suggest you consider it.
$BTC: 79,200 is the key zone where the 365-day moving average overlaps recent lows. If it can’t close below on volume, scaling in on the left side is logical, but stop loss must be set below 79,000; if broken, accept it and don’t hold on. The confirmation signal upward is a volume-backed close above 80,700, which would indicate the short-term bearish structure is broken.
$ETH: 2,300 is the referee line. Holding it means the supply squeeze story continues; closing below means looking down to 2,280 or even 2,200–2,250. Don’t rush to catch falling knives with "faith." The first decent confirmation upward is a volume-backed close back above 2,400; before that, grinding is more likely than flying.
Finally, a frank word.
The hardest thing about this position is not the unclear direction, but that both sides make sense. ETFs are running, whales are buying; macro is hawkish, volatility is compressed to the extreme; $ETH supply is tight, but marginal demand hasn’t returned. The market deliberately makes the chart a "left and right slap" to make most people hand over chips before the direction emerges.
I don’t advise you to go full long or full short. I just say: if you believe around 80,000 is a long-term cost zone, don’t handle long-term positions with short-term anxiety; if you’re trading short-term, then honestly watch 79,200 and 2,300—exit if broken, hold and wait for confirmation if it holds. What’s being ground down is people, not coins.
$BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Institutional funds have already started to split. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $442.67 million this week, ending a streak of outflows, but Ethereum ETFs experienced net outflows of $224.9 million for four consecutive weeks, indicating that institutions have inconsistent pricing for risk assets. In the past 24 hours, the total network liquidation reached $523.58 million, with longs facing concentrated forced liquidations, showing that high-leverage positions remain very fragile. Justin Sun called for a return to real demand at TOKEN2049; the slogan is correct, but the market only recognizes liquidity.
While waiting at a red light, I tightened the strap on the delivery box and casually glanced at the liquidation chart. The BTC hourly-level bearish structure remains unchanged, moving averages are diverging downward, and MACD continues to weaken. There is a large accumulation of short liquidation pressure in the 82,000 to 83,000 range, and the long liquidation intensity is also relatively high in the 79,000 to 80,000 area. In the short term, there is liquidity condition for a false breakout to the upside to test resistance again, but no trend reversal signal has appeared yet.
At the current price near 80,090, it is not advisable to directly chase shorts. Light short positions can be tested on a rebound to the 81,500 to 82,000 range, with a stop loss placed above 83,300. Take profit should first target near 79,000, and if broken, then look at the 78,000 level. If volume increases and price stabilizes above 83,000, the bearish logic is invalidated.
$BTC
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
@OKX星球 Brazil election surprise? Brazilian stock market falls!
$EWZ drops over 20%
The core trigger for this sharp drop in the Brazilian stock market is the reversal of the election result.
Previously, the market widely bet on the right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro winning, known in the circle as the "Bolsonaro trade."
Funds were optimistic that his administration would implement fiscal austerity, privatization reforms, and strictly control government debt, and this expectation had already pushed the stock index up in advance.
But in the end, Lula reversed the outcome and won re-election, directly breaking the market's previous optimistic pricing, causing funds to collectively close positions and flee, triggering a plunge in the index.
The market fears that Lula will continue the left-wing big government approach, maintain high welfare spending, and that fiscal deficits and public debt pressures will be difficult to contain.
Brazil's public debt-to-GDP ratio has already risen, and ongoing fiscal pressure will push up long-term interest rates, suppress corporate profits and stock valuations. The market also worries about possible future tax increases and interventions in resource companies, which will significantly impact heavyweight resource stocks like Vale and Petrobras.
Coupled with external headwinds, the Fed's high interest rate expectations persist, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, emerging market foreign capital is prone to outflows, and the real exchange rate is simultaneously under pressure and depreciating, further amplifying panic.
Commodity price volatility also adds extra pressure to the Brazil stock index, which is heavily weighted in resources.
In the short term, the market will continue to trade on fiscal risks. Going forward, the focus will be on Lula's fiscal plan statements for the new term and the situation of foreign capital inflows.
Will the U.S. midterm elections also see such large fluctuations?💻Breaking down by code review: The input is detected by Onchain Lens, reporting that multiple users of Bloom Trading have had their wallet assets stolen. The suspected thief address received 9,408 $SOL, approximately $954,000, involving 49 victims, with actual losses possibly higher.
My judgment: For ordinary users, this is primarily a permission security alert and cannot be directly attributed to the chain itself. Logically, multiple victims require investigation of common interaction points, but the material does not provide the root cause, so we cannot directly "convict" the platform or a specific vulnerability. A potential bug is treating disconnection as revoking authorization, which are not the same.
If I were to revise the security process, I would separate the investigation of connection, authorization, and key risks, then handle the remaining assets according to risk to avoid fixing the wrong part. Everyone, please help review: When encountering such an event with an unclear root cause, would you first check the authorization records or migrate the assets first, and what is your reasoning?Plunged 13%, what happened?
Wall Street bet wrong!
This morning Beijing time, heavy news came from Brazil: Bolsonaro Jr., supported by Trump, lost in the second round of the presidential election, and the incumbent president Lula successfully won re-election.
European and American stock markets were closed, and the first to react was the Japanese stock market, where the Brazilian ETF plunged 13%.
Why is Lula's re-election understood as negative news by the mainstream financial circles in Europe and America?
The main reason is that Trump strongly supported Bolsonaro and his son and did not want to see Lula re-elected.
Jair Bolsonaro (Bolsonaro Jr.'s father), born in 1955, served as Brazil's president from 2018 to 2022, known as the "Brazilian Trump," with a political style, populist mobilization methods, and conservative stance similar to Trump.
Lula, who successfully won re-election, was born in 1945 and was elected president of Brazil for the fourth time. His opponent in this year's election was Bolsonaro Jr., born in 1981. Therefore, Lula's election is a major setback for Trump's Latin America strategy.
The market fears that the U.S. will impose the previously threatened 50% tariffs and initiate a Section 301 investigation, including more Brazilian exports (steel, pulp, aircraft parts, processed agricultural products) on the high tariff list.
There are important meetings in the first four days of this week, and the main forces will continue to stabilize the market. Whether there will be significant favorable policies remains to be seen. The policy bottom has appeared, but the market bottom still needs verification. The Federal Reserve has a rate meeting this week and is likely to keep interest rates unchanged.
Note: This article is for sharing opinions and information and does not constitute any investment advice. 80,000 is not a solid bottom; it's a cover-up for this round of bulls.
$BTC softened again in the Asian morning session, at 79,800, grinding at this level for the third time. $ETH directly kicked below 2300, and $SOL can't even hold above 100. Altcoins are falling harder than Bitcoin; this isn't rotation, it's bloodletting.
Most people are focused on Wednesday's Fed meeting, but what's really weighing on the market is something else: the market suddenly doesn't want to pay for the "story" anymore.
Alphabet's cloud growth of 82% is explosive, but capital expenditures soared to 205 billion, free cash flow turned negative, and the stock was still hammered after hours. The AI narrative shifted from "growth competition" to "cash flow competition," and as tech stocks' risk appetite shrinks, crypto, as a high-beta asset, is the first to be dragged down. $BTC's volume increased during earnings week—not because someone is bottom-fishing, but because someone is rotating out to escape.
Back to the Fed. October's pause is almost a sure bet, but the probability of a rate hike in December has already topped 75%. As Lao Zhang said sharply: the real knife is hidden in the wording; interest rate expectations are the Damocles sword hanging over $BTC's head.
There's a detail on the chart more painful than the price: the long-short ratio rose from 1.55 a week ago to 2.2, retail investors are adding longs, but 670 million was liquidated in 24 hours, of which 457 million were longs. The more bullish you are, the harder you get hit. The ETF side isn't peaceful either; BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day outflow of 254 million, institutions chose to reduce rather than hold above 80,000.
Now everyone is waiting for the 79,000 level to give an answer. If it holds, it's a recovery; if not, panic selling will act before you do.
Before Wednesday, I choose to watch the show. What about you, act or wait?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 Google Cloud +82% YoY to $24.8B last quarter (Q2). Margin 35.6%, backlog $514B. They added more incremental revenue than Search.
CapEx $45B, FCF negative, 2026 guide still massive. Demand is real.
Q3 reports Oct 28. Another strong Cloud print keeps the AI bid alive for risk assets. CapEx scare = dip.
Positioning before or fading the print?
#AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI On the eve of the FOMC, the blood inside the market was almost drained.
Gold just broke below 4000 last Friday, hitting a low of 3975, but after a weekend, it stubbornly climbed back above 4000. Crude oil is even more interesting—Middle East export volumes have recovered to over 80% of pre-war levels, transportation is resuming, yet Brent remains stuck between $110 and $117, unable to drop. Freight rates have soared from $4 per barrel a year ago to $30 now, with Middle East routes at $35. What is this? This is called geopolitical premium not going away, just changing the way they charge you.
Both gold and crude oil pools are simultaneously being drained. Safe-haven money flows to gold, inflation money flows to crude oil, and liquidity in risk assets in the middle is being squeezed. The crypto market now faces a pool that is either stagnant or shrinking.
$BTC at 80,000 is holding up poorly.
Early session dipped and pulled back, with 15-minute level rebound volume pitifully thin. The real sting is the on-chain trump card: retail $BTC deposits on Binance doubled in 30 days from 5.5 billion to 10.75 billion, the fastest in nearly six months; meanwhile, whale inflows to exchanges dropped 36%, shrinking from 5.9 billion at the end of August to 3.8 billion. In plain terms—retail investors are queuing above 80,000 to send chips to exchanges, whales are quietly accumulating below, but their pace has clearly slowed. At the start of the month, ETFs still saw a single-day net outflow of 600 million, keeping sentiment tightly suppressed. Above 82,000, trapped positions pile up layer upon layer, without volume, pushing up is just providing liquidity for others to exit. A second dip is not a scare tactic, it’s the most common script in a zero-sum game.
$ETH at 2320 is even more exposed than BTC.
ETFs have continuously bled over 1 billion, Glamsterdam’s promised upgrade on October 26 was delayed again, and the whole network is shouting $ETH is done. Daily charts show bearish alignment, RSI stuck in the oversold zone between 34 and 40, the problem of falling without rising hasn’t changed at all. But one data point most people missed: 170,000 $ETH were withdrawn from exchanges in a single day on-chain, staking volume has reached over 43.7 million, accounting for 35% to 36% of circulating supply. More importantly, $ETH’s on-chain realized price is about $2311, and the current price of 2320 is right on this cost line. 2300 is not a technical support, it’s the bulls’ last shred of dignity. Holding it means a false sell-off; breaking below leads to 2180, and further down is a psychological vacuum zone.
The practical takeaway: before the FOMC decision lands, don’t be cannon fodder in low-volume moves.
The decision in the early hours of October 29 has an 84% to 90% probability of no change; the market consensus expects a hold, but every word in Powell’s press conference could overturn the table. The fear and greed index has dropped from greed at the start of the month to around 50, neutral to slightly cold, but far from the extreme panic “golden pit” zone. This means truly bloodied chips have not yet flooded out.
Before volume confirmation on the right side, every "bottom fishing" in low-volume oscillation is a gamble on luck, not trading. Whales are hoarding for the long term; retail is cutting losses for short pain. The tug-of-war in between is about who cracks first.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC $ETH is temporarily stable, but don't take it as a "bottom" signal: BTC holding 80,000, ETH holding 2300 is bleeding control, not a takeoff
Why call it "temporarily stable":
BTC 79.8K–80K long lower shadow support, hasn't broken the 79.2K previous low, bulls firmly defending the 80,000 level
ETH 2300 hasn't closed below daily, 2310–2330 reclaimed, short-term selling pressure exhausted but not turned bullish
Volume hasn't expanded, RSI weak (BTC ~40 / ETH ~36), this is a "bear trap rebound," not a spot market attack
ETF withdrew a total of 774 million last Thursday to Saturday, buying hasn't continuously returned, institutions dare not bet before FOMC (10.27–28)
Key levels:
BTC: support 79,800–80,000 / 79,200; resistance 81,200 → 82,400 → 85K+
ETH: support 2,315–2,330 / 2,275; resistance 2,365–2,400 / 2,425
True stabilization signal: BTC daily close above 81.2K with volume + ETH back to 2,400 + ETF net inflow
Stability means "caught after falling down stairs to catch a breath."
It's not a bull market return, it's the 80,000 defense line holding + liquidation clearing + waiting before FOMC.
A rebound reaching 81.2K is acceptable; failing to surpass 82.4K is just a fake smile. $BTC Stayed up all night watching this lousy market, the ashtray is full, and my heart is completely cold.
Rode the roller coaster until now, the fattest chunk of meat not only wasn't eaten, but even the last bit of base position in my pocket was taken out and washed clean. What's most frustrating for the mindset? Even the most resilient ETH turned from profit to loss. The defense line that was broken wasn't the price, but the breath holding on without cutting losses.
$ETH opened at an average price of 2314.89, now directly dropped to 2307.75. Floating loss -6.16U looks small, ROI -6.16% is just a needle prick, but the pain is that—it's ETH. This wave of ETH rolled down from 2430, now gasping around 2300, RSI hanging weakly between 33 and 36, after breaking the 200-day moving average at 2320, the previous low defense zone between 2280 and 2300 is the last face to save. The 1042% margin rate is indeed stable, so stable that even the qualification to stop loss seems redundant, can only watch it slowly decline. The stabilizing needle is leaking, more painful than altcoin crashes.
$DOGE is even more annoying. Bought at 0.0757199, current price 0.076391, floating profit +17.72U, ROI +17.72%. The numbers are in the red, but I can't smile at all. The highest profit of over 50U was forcibly squeezed down to just over 17U. $DOGE spot ETF had a net outflow of $538,000 last week, the largest single-week outflow since mid-August, institutions are clearly pulling back, if 0.0764 breaks again, below is a vacuum zone. The 834% margin rate barely keeps it alive, Dogecoin isn't weak itself, but no one in the market is willing to support it.
$SOL is also half-dead. Average price 99.7, current price 100.65, floating profit +14.28U, ROI +19.05%. $SOL slid down from 109, the 100 level is repeatedly tested, RSI 36 to 37, structurally both highs and lows are moving down. ETF funds had a cumulative net outflow of about $68 million in October, big players' shorts above 100 are very obvious. $SOL is now taking selling pressure on its face, the 14U profit above 100 is as thin as paper.
Do you understand the essence of this sell-off? It's not retail investors cutting losses, it's high-leverage longs being collectively taken out. On October 22, spot $BTC ETF had a single-day net outflow of $635 million, the largest since June; 89% of liquidations were longs. Although weekly $BTC spot ETF data turned positive with 301 million inflow, October still had a net outflow of 314 million, IBIT ran 500 million in two days. Institutions are withdrawing, leverage is blowing up, altcoin ETF money is flowing out too. This is not a simple shakeout, it's a double kill script of leverage cleansing and ETF retreat happening simultaneously. $ETH, as the last long faith, is even starting to lose money, indicating this round of clearing is not over yet.
I just want to ask: Did you cut losses, or are you holding on like me?
$ETH $DOGE $SOL
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $BTC broke below 80,000, but the worst part isn’t the breakdown itself—it’s standing on the wrong side at this level.
Over the weekend, the low hit 79,226, turning 80,000 from a solid floor into a meat grinder. In 24 hours, over $800 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with longs making up the vast majority; more than 210,000 people were wiped out. Over $400 million in long positions evaporated within 4 hours, 94% of which were longs. This move isn’t just a simple technical breakdown—it’s a cascading liquidation caused by leverage.
But if the only word in your mind right now is “short,” I advise you to pause for three seconds.
Beneath the surface, there’s a very conflicting divergence.
ETFs are indeed bleeding. On October 22, there was a single-day outflow of 635.6 million, the harshest day since June. Over two days, a total of 774 million was withdrawn, giving back more than 70% of the 1.07 billion inflow from earlier in the week. BlackRock’s IBIT withdrew 254 million, Fidelity’s FBTC withdrew 217 million—clearly, institutional buying is pulling back.
What about retail? They’re stepping in. On Binance, retail inflows over 30 days rose from 5.5 billion to 10.75 billion, nearly doubling, hitting a six-month high.
Normally, retail buying while institutions exit would mean the crash continues. But whales aren’t cooperating. Since late August, the amount of BTC whales transferring into Binance dropped from 5.9 billion to 3.8 billion, a 36% decrease. More importantly, on-chain: wallets holding 10 to 10,000 $BTC have cumulatively increased their holdings by 85,000 to 89,000 coins since mid to late September, bringing pure whale holdings to the highest level since November 2025.
In plain terms: whales aren’t selling, but they’re not rushing to buy either. They’re waiting—for retail to hand over the bloodied chips, and for the FOMC to resolve uncertainty.
This is very different from “whales are retreating.” Reduced transfers to exchanges don’t equal selling; on-chain accumulation is the real trump card.
The 75,000 level isn’t just Peter Schiff shouting.
Peter Schiff has been calling for 75,000 for a long time, and many have laughed it off. But this time, the reason 75,000 deserves a serious look isn’t because of Schiff’s talk. Strategy (MSTR)’s average cost basis is around 75,000, and when the weekend low hit 79,000, it was only about $3,000 away from breakeven. Once this level is tested, it’s not a matter of “prediction,” it’s real chips speaking.
So 75,000 isn’t an empty short bet. It’s the next real level to watch whale activity—if they reach out again near there, that’s a zone worth serious consideration for support.
The FOMC is the real referee this week.
On October 28, there’s a 92.8% chance rates remain unchanged, so the result itself isn’t much of a surprise. But the real risk isn’t whether they hike or not—it’s the wording. If the Fed holds steady but tightens the tone for December, risk assets could be pressured again. Wintermute previously pointed out that 82,500 is a key watershed; if effectively broken, a move just above 70,000 isn’t impossible. Conversely, if the tone is dovish and core PCE doesn’t fuel inflation, combined with ETF capital inflows, the recovery above 80,000 will have a foundation.
The path of rates is ten times more important than the rate decision itself.
My stance is clear: below 80,000, no chasing shorts.
It’s not that you can’t be bearish, but the risk-reward of chasing shorts here is painfully bad. The bearish logic—ETF outflows, liquidation cascades, macro pressure—has already been mostly priced in. Chasing shorts near 79,000 targets a short-term range of 78,000 to 78,600 below, while above could be a quick rebound to 81,000 triggered by Fed wording or a whale buy order. The odds aren’t right.
I’m waiting for only two signals:
A decisive volume-backed break below 79,200 confirming short-term bears, then watching 78,000–78,600, with 75,000 only in extreme scenarios.
Or a volume-backed recovery above and hold at 81,000, invalidating the breakdown, easing liquidation pressure, then considering the right side.
Until either happens, the best position is patience, not direction.
The breakdown is real. But when sentiment is at its peak, that’s often when the market most wants you to stand on the wrong side.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.95%, with the first-level pair scale about $802; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 8%. Capacity limit set.
The first-level positive spread for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.68%, with the first-level pair scale about $992; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 10%. Small orders can probe, but large volume must look at deeper levels.
$SOL marked spread is positive, but the buy near sell far first-level quote is inverted. Near-month annualized +7.89%, far-month annualized +0.45%, near end is more expensive; marked near-far spread +0.1%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread -1.11%. Positive mark, negative first-level.India's largest telecom company is going public, but its stock is already being sold on-chain in advance.
Jio Platforms is the digital telecom business under Reliance Group, with 533 million users as of the end of June. The IPO subscription ended on October 23, oversubscribed by 22.19 times, with an issue price between 1065 and 1119 rupees, and it was listed on October 28.
On the same day, Hyperliquid launched JIO's pre-IPO perpetual contracts, deployed via HIP-3, offering 24/7 trading, up to 5x leverage, and isolated margin. The contract is pegged to the USD price of 1 share of Jio Platforms, with an initial reference price of $13.
The data after launch is solid: 24-hour trading volume is about $908,200, open interest nominal value about $2,278,200, and the mark price is $12.963.
Using the $12.963 mark price and the 94.9432 exchange rate to convert, the implied stock price is about 1231 rupees, roughly 10% higher than the upper limit of the issue price. The market has already priced in some of the expected listing gains.
Two variables to watch: the stock price and the rupee exchange rate will both affect the quote; if the rupee depreciates further, the USD price will move accordingly. The contract also has a maximum 60-day listing grace period; if there is a serious delay, it may trigger alternative settlement.
So this is not risk-free arbitrage; essentially, it is a bet on the sentiment at the opening on October 28. With 5x leverage, a 10% premium retraction is enough to wipe out half the margin.76%的资金押注闪迪会超预期，这个数字本身就值得停下来看一眼。 你猜市场现在是在交易业绩，还是在交易"预期差"？ 美东时间10月29日盘后闪迪要出财报，预测盘口里超过七成资金站在"会超预期"这一边。表面逻辑顺得几乎挑不出毛病：AI数据中心需求还在扩，NAND报价往上走，公司自己给的营收指引是103亿到108亿美元。听上去像是一手好牌，对吧。 但我盯着这个76%有点发凉。押注比例这么高，意味着好消息已经被提前写进价格里了，剩下的悬念只有一个——下一季指引还能不能继续炸。市场早就不关心你上季卖了多少，它只想知道增长曲线会不会在这里拐头。前阵子西部数据就是活教材，业绩超了、指引也不差，股价照样往下走。只要闪迪的指引里透出一点利润率见顶、或者NAND涨价放缓的味道，这76%会瞬间从买盘变成砸盘的力量。 我更在意的是它和加密这边的跨市场传导。半导体是全球科技股的风险温度计，这份财报会直接拨动我们这边的情绪。偏多的路径是：业绩超预期、股价还能顶住抛压往上走，科技板块的信心稳住，BTC也能跟着松一口气，风险偏好回暖，山寨才有喘息的空间。偏空的风险则更隐蔽——如果业绩很好、股价却被当场摁下去，那说明华The ripple effect of AI credit cuts hit stock prices first: CoreWeave down over 10% in a week, Meta down over 9%
In the same week Elon Musk warned that new cloud providers couldn't get loans, the stock prices had already validated half of that for him. Last week, CoreWeave dropped over 10%, Meta fell over 9%, making AI trading a hard-hit sector. The chip index slightly rebounded, with SK Hynix US shares up over 4%, but Western Digital, despite good earnings, still fell 3%, indicating the market doesn't price based on earnings quality but rather on "how much the AI narrative is worth."
This chain of transmission is very clear: the bond market closes first, stock prices reprice next, and finally come orders and earnings. Musk's phrase "few will survive" is now understood by the market as: first, the valuation drops, then we see who can really survive.
The same applies to the crypto world: AI concept coins and computing power narratives now need to answer not "how big the story is," but "whether cash flow can cover debt." Companies that can't get loans and projects that can't issue tokens often end up the same way.
Regarding this AI stock pullback, do you think it's a shakeout or the start of a valuation system re-evaluation?
#SpaceX raises $40 billion, Musk warns of AI cloud credit cuts
$BTC📉 $BTC Capital Flow Alert: Short-term Bull Trap, Main Force Retreating?
Latest contract data shows a typical "short-term long, long-term short" divergence signal in the BTC market:
1. Short-term illusion: Slight net capital inflow at 5-minute to 1-hour levels (+10 million to 36 million), indicating quant or short-term traders are speculating on oversold rebounds.
2. Long-term reality: Significant net outflows across all periods over 2 hours! Over 2 billion outflow in 7 days, nearly 8.3 billion outflow in 30 days. This indicates that medium- to long-term main players are substantially reducing positions during the rebound.
3. Market sentiment: ETF capital inflows and outflows fluctuate sharply, contract open interest declines, indicating the market is "deleveraging." Retail investors are entering to buy the dip, while whales are contracting their battle lines #This week's announcement of the October FOMC interest rate decision? Is it the key to determining $BTC's direction?
It is an important catalyst, but not the only deciding factor. This FOMC is more likely to act as a "short-term volatility trigger" rather than the sole variable determining BTC's medium- to long-term direction.
Why is it called "key" but not "only"?
· The key lies in the expectation gap: The market has largely priced in "no change in October" (probability about 83%-90%). If the result meets expectations, BTC's reaction may be muted; the real risk lies in an unexpected rate hike or an extremely hawkish statement, which could instantly tighten liquidity expectations and suppress BTC.
· The real anchor lies elsewhere: Some analyses point out that compared to the Fed's overnight rate, the 30-year US Treasury yield may have a more direct suppressive effect on BTC. Currently, this yield hovers around a high of 5.6%, raising the risk-free return requirement, which is the "return hurdle" BTC finds harder to overcome.
· Internal factors are equally critical: BTC has recently been pressured due to concerns over the AI bubble, Middle East geopolitical risks, and ETF fund outflows, once falling below $80,000. Even if the FOMC dovetails, if these internal negatives are not digested, the rebound will be limited.
Conclusion: The FOMC is the biggest source of uncertainty this week (especially a hawkish surprise), but whether BTC can truly strengthen depends more on whether long-term US Treasury yields fall back and whether the internal capital situation in the crypto market stabilizes.After $HYPE recovered losses over the weekend, today it seems more like it's consolidating around 75–77, with a bullish bias seeing it as digestion before the rate decision, not a bearish reversal.
24h change is about −0.85%, with a high/low around 77.6/75.0, showing slightly more resilience compared to ETH. On-chain: HYPE perpetual daily nominal is about 280 million U, OI about 1.58 billion U; protocol perpetuals total about 3.84 billion, TVL about 8.19 billion. Buybacks have not stopped—Aid Fund bought about 13,000 tokens/~996,000 U on 10/25, holding about 48.27 million tokens; October revenue so far is about 53.49 million, with daily pace still aiming for the 60 million threshold.
Before the FOMC, will you wait for it to break above 80, or continue consolidating between 75–78? Feel free to share your thoughts.
$HYPE
Just personal observation, not investment advice. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $HYPE The Ethereum Foundation still chooses the most trafficked selling method: openly selling during market pullbacks 🫠
Its associated address 0x5CB…22059 sold 2,785 ETH via Cowswap two hours ago, worth 6.42 million USD; this is another sell-off by the foundation's associated entity following the $ETH deposit on 10.12, when the coin price was still $2534, now down nearly 9%
Wallet address 0x5CBC6299faB3320E7758ac97fd4CA45E5B722059"Floating loss of 22.78 million but still calm? The big short's trump card is 'holding on' (￣▽￣)"
This whale has cumulatively earned over $180 million, with another $25.22 million gained in the last 24 hours; currently, the combined floating loss on BTC, ETH, and SOL short positions is 22.78 million USD, approximately 12.06 million, 4.76 million, and 5.95 million respectively. Despite facing headwinds, the real focus is on position size.
He is short 2,637 BTC, nominal $210 million, 5x leverage, average price 76,327; short 106,400 ETH, nominal $250 million, 5x leverage, average price 2,322; short 720,000 SOL, nominal $73.87 million, 7x leverage, average price 94.3. Total nominal value is $530 million, a top-tier short hasn't fled (・ω・)ノ
The key lies in the liquidation price: BTC around 140,000, ETH 3,838, SOL 316, still far from current prices, making it hard for short-term volatility to force him out. Low leverage buys room, floating loss buys time; he is betting on 'time for price,' not immediate profit or loss (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
So although there are whale short positions pressuring from above, the real risk isn't the current floating loss but whether prices will continue pushing toward liquidation zones. Whether to follow or not, don't just focus on profit and loss numbers, first look at position management. Copying trades is fine, but first copy risk control (￣▽￣)
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 When I show newcomers this kind of news, I first ask: Did you buy fund shares, or a “coin” that has an independent price? The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved the world’s first tokenized funds offered to the public to be traded on licensed virtual asset trading platforms in the secondary market. Two existing recognized tokenized money market funds have started 24/7 trading today.
My judgment is that this is a substantial progress in the trading method for compliant funds, but it should not be directly interpreted as a positive for the entire token market. What changes is how shares are transferred, not that the underlying assets suddenly generate more returns.
📌 Using these two funds to explain a basic concept: subscription and redemption are entering or exiting according to fund rules; secondary market trading is the transfer of shares between investors. If the buyer’s price is higher than the fund’s net asset value, the extra amount paid is a premium. This is a mechanism example and does not mean these two funds have already shown a premium.
A common misconception among newcomers is equating “money market funds” with “transaction prices that do not fluctuate.” The underlying returns and purchase price are two different things; 24/7 trading increases operation time but does not change the fund’s asset nature. Also, the SFC said it monitors trading and will consider expanding the scope in due course, not that all products have been approved.
What else don’t you understand: why might the on-exchange trading price of these tokenized funds differ from the fund’s net asset value? Leave a comment, and I’ll continue to explain.#法国10年期国债收益率自2013年来首超美债 什么意思呢？ 就是借钱给法国，现在比借钱给美国利息还要高，这可是2013年以来的头一遭。 10月22号，法国10年期国债收益率直接飙到了5.14%，创下了2002年以来的新高。最关键的不是它自己涨，而是它竟然首次超过了同期限的美国国债！法国和德国的国债利差也扩大到了175个基点，创下15年新高。虽然评级机构穆迪维持了它的评级，但展望依然是“负面”。 小马哥给大家翻译一下这背后的白话： 以前大家觉得法国那是妥妥的发达国家，借钱给它安全得很。现在呢？市场觉得法国财政赤字太严重，预算谈判又搞成了一锅粥，政治也不稳定，大家怕它还不上钱，或者钱不值钱了，所以要求更高的利息才肯借钱给它。你想想，连核心欧洲国家的信用都遭到这种质疑，这绝对是传统金融市场的超级大地雷。 小马哥的个人看法： 这就是典型的“主权信用危机”苗头。这帮华尔街和欧洲的大资金是最怂的，一有风吹草动立马拔腿就跑。他们抛售法国国债，转手去买美债和德债避险。这叫什么？这叫全球流动性的再次收紧。现在宏观面本来就悬着美联储议息这个靴子，欧洲债市再这么一闹，高利率带来的融资From 1950 to 2022, within one year after midterm elections, the S&P 500 has always risen. According to the analogy of carving a mark on a boat to find a sword, after the election on November 3rd this time, the US stock market index is still very likely to rise.
But this doesn't mean it will keep rising continuously; there will be declines in between, and it will eventually rise back, so overall it counts as an increase. If the US stock market continues to rise, Bitcoin will also follow. Could the 57,800 this year really be the historical bottom?
I can't agree with that. At least for Bitcoin at 80,000, I can't pull the trigger. Doubling to 160,000 would be the top, and halving to 40,000 is also possible. With this kind of risk-reward ratio and odds, I'll stay calm and take it step by step, no rush.To be honest, I used to easily mishear "regulatory approval" as "market is coming," with only the fear of missing out in my mind. Later, I realized that a step forward in regulation doesn't mean my position should rush forward.
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved the world's first tokenized funds offered to the public to conduct secondary trading on licensed virtual asset trading platforms. Two existing recognized tokenized money market funds are now available for 24/7 trading starting today.
I see this as a positive for product channels, not a reason to add leverage on contracts. The first batch mainly consists of money market funds, which cannot be directly pushed as overall demand growth for the entire crypto space; 24/7 trading extends trading hours, which can easily make office workers mistake "always tradable" for "always an opportunity." This atmosphere feels somewhat familiar.
I now stick to two rules: don't use regulatory news as a switch to add leverage; first understand the underlying assets and trading rules before considering participation. Have you ever misread "approval" as a market signal? Would you be willing to share a rule to avoid chasing news?* Confirmed: SK Hynix will hold its Q3 earnings conference call on October 28 (Wednesday) at 9 AM Korea time. The press release will be issued before 9 AM, along with the announcement of expanded shareholder return measures.
* Not confirmed: Korean media reports suggest the company may distribute a special dividend of about 16 trillion KRW, possibly funded by proceeds from the sale/disposal of its Kioxia investment. The company has only confirmed that it is "evaluating multiple shareholder return options" without confirming any amount or form.
* Existing plan: SK Hynix previously announced a buyback and cancellation of about 40 trillion KRW in treasury shares and plans to allocate over 50% of cumulative free cash flow from 2025 to 2027 for dividends, buybacks, or cancellations.
Market impact interpretation:
* If the official plan approaches "16 trillion KRW special dividend + existing buyback and cancellation," it would be clearly bullish for SK Hynix in the short term and help stabilize Korean semiconductor valuations.
* If it only reiterates the existing 40 trillion KRW plan without additional cash returns, since the market has already anticipated this, it may result in a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario.
* For NVDA, TSMC, and SOXL, what really matters are HBM shipments, pricing, HBM4 progress, 2027 order visibility, and capital expenditures in the earnings report; shareholder returns mainly support SK Hynix’s stock price and cannot alone prove a renewed acceleration in AI demand. Therefore, SK Hynix’s strength against the trend today partly reflects bets on the October 28 shareholder return announcement $ZEC liquidity has shown marginal improvement, but signals are mixed and do not yet indicate a trend reversal.
ETF stop the bleeding: Last week saw a net inflow of $41.1 million, ending three consecutive weeks of outflows, but only recovering about 29% of the previous $143 million loss. ETFs currently hold about 3.4% of ZEC's supply.
On-chain divergence: A whale withdrew coins to accumulate (814.7 ZEC withdrawn on October 20, approximately $1.03 million), but longs on the derivatives side are clearly under pressure, with about $10.03 million in long liquidations over 24 hours compared to only $3.99 million in shorts.
Key levels: Currently around $1,190, with support between $1,175–$1,100 and resistance at $1,214 (20-day moving average). The next catalyst is the NU7 upgrade around November 5.
Summary: Institutional funds are replenishing, leveraged longs are being liquidated, and ZEC is in a "stop-the-bleeding observation period," not a confirmed reversal phase.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓 Samsung's preliminary Q3 results are quite explosive: operating profit of 107.4 trillion KRW (about $80.2 billion), a year-on-year surge of 782.5%, breaking the 100 trillion KRW mark in a single quarter for the first time; revenue of 195 trillion KRW, up 126.6% year-on-year. However, revenue was slightly below expectations, and within this 107 trillion profit, the semiconductor division is expected to contribute 107 trillion, while the mobile and consumer electronics divisions each lost about 0.6 trillion KRW.
The core driver is memory: HBM4 shipments in the quarter increased nearly 50% quarter-on-quarter, with HBM4 sales expected to account for over 50% of total HBM sales starting Q3; DRAM and NAND prices continued to rise quarter-on-quarter, with HBM4's average price expected to increase 100%–150% year-on-year next year. Samsung has also completed HBM4 deliveries to Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform, gaining a technological lead during the window period.
But note two divergences: while the earnings report is explosive, Samsung's stock price has fallen 36% from its June peak, as the market believes the high profits have already been priced in, and what investors are really waiting for is evidence of how long the favorable conditions can last. Additionally, losses in the mobile business and exchange losses caused by the won's appreciation partially offset the quality of the profits.
The key points of the full earnings report on October 29 are not the profit figures themselves, but rather: the supply and demand outlook for 2027, how much new LTA long-term agreements have been added, and whether shareholder return plans will be increased. These three factors will determine whether the stock price can climb out of the "good news fully priced in" pit.$BTC has broken 80,000, short-term bearish, but don't chase shorts.
The market has changed
BTC fell below 80,000 over the weekend, hitting a low of 79,226 USD, with a rebound blocked at 80,900-81,000. 80,000 has turned from support into resistance.
Suppressing factors
· ETF outflows: On October 22, a single-day outflow of 635.6 million, totaling 774 million over two days, offsetting over 70% of early-week inflows
· Retail buyers stepping in, whales retreating: Net inflow from retail to exchanges doubled from 5.5 billion to 10.75 billion, while whales dropped from 5.9 billion to 3.8 billion
Avoid being overly bearish
Whales have not concentrated their selling; exchange inflows are decreasing, not increasing. Peter Schiff's target of 75,000 is the next level to watch, which is also where whale accumulation might resume.
Key price levels
Direction Trigger Target
Continue downtrend Stay below 79,200 78,000-78,600, extreme case 75,000
Recovery rebound Reclaim and hold above 81,000 Relieve liquidation pressure, 82,000 marks reversal
Trading strategy
Do not chase shorts below 80,000. The bearish scenario is partially priced in; chasing shorts near 79,000 has poor risk-reward. Wait for a volume break below 79,200 to confirm short-term bearishness, or reclaim 81,000 to invalidate the breakdown. Around 75,000 is the level to consider scaling in.
In short: The breakdown happened, but don't take the wrong side when emotions are at their peak.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 I imagined a price interview: $100 gets you a suit, but $99.96 means you have to explain a gap in your work history. Even though it's just a few cents difference, the treatment feels like a different person 😂
Hyperliquid perpetual public market shows $SOL just dropped below $100, currently at $99.96, down 2.37% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of about $102 million and an open interest of about $551 million. What I care more about is the contrast: the price is going down, but the funding rate is still positive, at 0.0013% per hour, which annualizes to about 11%. This means longs are still paying holding costs, so "price drop" doesn't directly equal "longs have exited"; plus, this is data from a single platform and can't be used to represent the entire market.
My judgment: compared to the integer break, the subsequent changes in funding rate and open interest carry more information. Would you choose to watch the funding rate or the open interest? In this interview, do you check the payroll or the roster first? Looking at SK Hynix's latest earnings report, I want to hear more about the collaboration behind HBM4.
Hynix previously announced cooperation with TSMC to develop HBM4, involving the use of advanced logic process technology to manufacture the base wafers. This change is worth pondering: as HBM moves forward, competition increasingly depends on the coordination between memory, logic process, and customer systems.
For Hynix, this is an opportunity. If the product is more deeply involved in customer design, procurement won't just be about price comparison. Customers wanting to switch suppliers also need to consider the costs of re-verification and adaptation. This kind of business interests me more than simply waiting for storage prices to rise.
But the deeper the cooperation, the more delivery tests coordination ability. Having memory ready doesn't mean the logic wafers, packaging, and the entire system can all be ready simultaneously. If any link slows down, the final revenue recognition may also be delayed.
Therefore, the phrase "strong demand" in the earnings report is no longer enough to excite me. I want to know how customer projects are progressing, whether delivery arrangements are clear, and if the increased technical content has resulted in better profits.
HBM4 is worth looking forward to. However, the market has already paid a lot for expectations, so next, the project progress and business results should speak for themselves.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The coming week could be a stress test for the global markets!
Oil prices, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, employment data, plus the Middle East situation — multiple risk factors are about to converge.
Key dates to watch:
Monday: U.S. markets reopen; the Iran situation may impact oil prices and risk appetite.
Tuesday: U.S. employment, housing, and consumer confidence data.
Wednesday: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and speech by Kevin Walsh. Even if rates don’t rise, any hint of tighter future policy could pressure the market.
Thursday: PCE inflation and GDP data. Inflation is forecast to rise to 3.6%. If oil prices push inflation higher, the market may reassess the prospects for rate cuts.
Friday: Japan’s unemployment rate and U.S. wage inflation data.
Meanwhile, with the U.S. midterm elections approaching, market sentiment may become even more sensitive.
The truly dangerous combination is: rising oil prices, rebounding inflation, and the Fed unable to ease policy.
If this scenario unfolds, stocks, gold, and crypto assets could all come under pressure, and $BTC will hardly be immune.
Of course, volatility doesn’t necessarily mean a crash. The key is to manage risk in advance, not just react after the market moves.First consider the worst-case scenario: if there is 24/7 trading but a lack of counterparties, you may only be able to exit at a discount when you urgently need cash. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved the first batch of public tokenized funds to conduct secondary trading on licensed virtual asset platforms. Two recognized money market funds have started 24/7 trading today.
I see this as progress in channels, not the disappearance of risk. ⚠️ I will monitor liquidity and the deviation of transaction prices from net asset value: being able to place orders at any time does not mean transactions can be executed at reasonable prices. Ordinary people should first factor in the loss from discounted exits within their tolerance range. This round of BTC dropped from 84,875 to around 79,000. On the surface, it looks like a technical breakdown, but the real drivers of the decline are the tightening macro environment and the absence of institutional buying. My judgment going forward is cautious: as long as macro pressure does not ease and ETF funds do not resume sustained net inflows, the sustainability of any rebound is questionable, so I am not in a hurry to call the bottom.
The core reasons for this decline:
1. High oil prices reignite inflation concerns, squeezing the space for risk assets
The repeated turmoil in the Middle East has kept crude oil prices high, with Brent crude once rising to around $102, directly disturbing market expectations for easing inflation. High oil prices mean the Federal Reserve has little room to maneuver on rate cuts, and even rate hike expectations remain in flux. For high beta risk assets like BTC, the marginal tightening of macro liquidity expectations itself is a valuation pressure.
2. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, funds flow to interest-bearing assets
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stays above 5%, even touching 5.36% at one point. When risk-free assets can offer attractive fixed income, institutional funds have a real incentive to withdraw from more volatile assets. BTC’s "digital gold" narrative temporarily yields to liquidity considerations in a high interest rate environment, as evidenced by ETF fund flows.
In short, the root cause of this decline lies in macro factors, not crypto itself. Without easing macro pressure, a rebound is just a rebound, not a reversal. Wait for signals, don’t guess the bottom. I misjudged HYPE this time; the problem wasn't the fundamentals but the token distribution and position sizing.
When revenue hit a new high in September, I was still focused on fundamentals, overlooking another fact: the team, Multicoin, and whales had already started moving tokens out.
Good revenue doesn't necessarily mean the token price will rise. If some keep selling and the buy side can't absorb it, the price will still fall.
When it dropped below $77, my stop-loss condition had actually been triggered. I should have exited then instead of finding excuses while it kept falling, thinking the fundamentals were good and the price would eventually recover.
The mistake in this trade was setting the rules in advance but failing to follow them.
On the bright side, $HYPE's revenue hasn't returned to the low levels of April; at least from a fundamental perspective, the long-term logic isn't completely broken yet.
Moving forward, I prefer to wait for the token distribution to gradually digest and see if there's an opportunity when the price returns near the MA200.
Compared to when it was $90, it is indeed worth reassessing the risk-reward ratio now, but that doesn't mean you should buy just because it dropped to the moving average.
Fundamentals determine why you are optimistic, token distribution determines when it will rise, and position sizing determines if you can hold on until the end.
The biggest lesson this time wasn't that I was wrong about the direction, but that I refused to admit it when I was wrong. $HYPE Bitcoin Penetration Rate and Price Trend Analysis
Penetration rate is already high: The biggest impact on Bitcoin's price is that the penetration rate is already quite high.
Each bull market peak's increase is less impressive than the previous one.
Early bull market peaks rose tenfold each time: $20,000 in 2017, over $60,000 in the previous round, and over $100,000 this round.
Whether the next round can reach $200,000 is uncertain.
Bitcoin is gradually becoming like gold: The increased penetration rate makes Bitcoin similar to gold. Volatility decreases, and gains narrow.
Its positioning is digital gold, no need for flashy technology. $ETH has been hovering around 2,300 all morning
From 9 to 11 o'clock, three consecutive hourly candles tested 2,291-2,298, all were supported, now bouncing up to 2,319. But each high is lower than the last: 2,364 at midnight, 2,351 at 6 AM, 2,341 at 7 AM, now 2,320.
Honestly, the short position from last night was stopped out at midnight, this time the stop loss is set above that high.
Funding rate is slightly positive (about +0.005%), open interest at 627,000 ETH hasn't dropped much, bulls are still holding. With the Fed meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday, I don't think there's big money rushing to buy the rebound.
Key levels:
· 2,338-2,345: area where this morning's rebound failed to break through
· 2,366: above the midnight high
· 2,296: three tests of the morning bottom
· 2,282: near the three-day low
My plan:
· Direction: short on rebound
· Entry: 2,338-2,345
· Stop loss: 2,366
· Target 1: 2,296
· Target 2: 2,282
If it doesn't bounce into the entry zone, no chase; if it breaks below 2,290, no chase either. If the hourly candle closes above 2,366 with volume, admit the mistake and wait.
Do you think 2,300 can hold?
Just my personal view, not investment advice, DYOR
#ETH #ContractStrategy #FedMeetingBosses, I just opened my eyes and took a look at the market, and I came to one conclusion: the price hasn't moved, but the money has already left. This is the coldest divergence I've seen tonight.
The total open interest across the network shrank by 1.15% in one day, down to 139.466 billion. The contract trading volume shrank even more drastically, dropping 39.82% in one day to just 87.708 billion. With volume shrinking like this, BTC is still hovering above 80,500, ETH is oscillating around 2,350, and SOL is grinding near 101, with price changes all under 0.25%.
BTC open interest shrank by 1.65%, ETH by 2.63%, and SOL by 1.83%. The price hasn't collapsed, but positions are withdrawing first. This isn't panic selling; it's big money pulling chips off the table. Without strong data support on Monday, a 40% volume drop isn't surprising; but positions moving out simultaneously means it's not just Monday sluggishness.
Only ZEC is moving in the opposite direction: its open interest rose 3.80% in one day to 2.43 billion, and its price jumped near 1,216. But its liquidation amount reached 3.76 million, surpassing SOL's 3.31 million. The hotter the money chases, the more people get liquidated inside; this wave isn't purely strength.
It's like people haven't left yet, but half the chairs are already empty. If BTC can't hold the 80,500 level, the next step depends on whether trading volume returns to fill the gap; for ZEC, with this chasing pattern, if the three major mainstream coins don't add positions and ZEC doesn't chase higher, positions will be pressed down another level, and direction will be discussed once volume returns. $PEPE $RLS $XRP #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $PUMP
ai16z founder Shaw said that their reverse engineering of pump.fun's contract is not a simple copy but aims for byte-level consistency.
That doesn't sound quite right to me. pump.fun has long stopped losing on the code front; its moat is the early batch of players and liquidity it accumulated, the code is the least valuable part.
PUMP is now at 0.004194, down 2.6% in 24h, with a volume of over 15.8 billion tokens, equivalent to more than sixty million USD. The volume is there, indicating people are still in the pool, but no one is willing to push it up.
I've always been skeptical about the token issuance platform track; the threshold is low, there are many imitators, and in the end only one or two remain. The new king's rise has never relied on code alignment but on harsher fees or a crazier community.
So I have a question mark on ai16z's current promotion. If they really want to grab market share, subsidizing creators with money is much more effective than being stingy over contract bytes.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 To start with the conclusion: $CAP rose 37.8% in the last 24 hours today, climbing from 0.0826 to 0.1175, just 3% shy of the all-time high of 0.1208 on October 12. But on-chain data is moving in the opposite direction.
Cap protocol's TVL dropped from $232 million on October 22 to $201 million today, a 13% decline over 4 days; its native stablecoin cUSD circulation shrank from 82.83 million on October 21 to 75.43 million, down 9% in 4 days, yet the price remains steady at 0.9999. The protocol's 24-hour fees are only $11,000, with a 30-day total of just $474,000.
On OKX, $CAP has no spot anchor, only perpetuals: open interest rose from 340,000 contracts to 557,000 (+65%) in one day; 24-hour trading volume reached 149 million CAP, about $155 million, which is 25 times the open interest; funding rates climbed from a floor of 0.005% to 0.0375% over 4 hours, with longs starting to pay real money. CoinGlass readings align with this: a long-short ratio of 1.65, and a whale-retail difference of -0.066, indicating retail investors are pushing.
What’s rising is leverage and sentiment, not protocol cash flow. With this volume-price divergence from on-chain data, who do you think is making money chasing $CAP now? $ETH
6.42 million USD. The Ethereum Foundation just sold 2,785 ETH through CoW Swap, at a price just over 2300 each, roughly the same as the current 2319.
At the same time, another more interesting news: an ancient giant whale that hasn't moved for 11 years transferred out 5,000 ETH in 2 hours, worth over 11 million USD at the current price.
I've long been immune to the Foundation selling coins; they need to pay salaries and grants monthly, so selling coins is tied to payroll, unrelated to bearish or bullish views. Every time they sell to stir the market, I find it boring.
But money that hasn't moved for 11 years suddenly moving is different. Such old addresses either mean a team wallet is unfrozen or early participants really need the money; in any case, it's not a casual transfer.
ETH is now 2319, with a 24h low touching 2293, having dipped below 2300. My view is that this wave of selling pressure mainly comes from old coins changing hands, not from new negative factors. As for what comes next... let's first see if 2300 can hold back.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The post released by $UNITREE last Friday said that if you want to ride the continuation of the emotional premium, you could open long positions on Friday, and today is the time to take profits.
Continuing from last week's post, on Friday the robot sector resonance index and quantitative flattening caused an intraday peak, and Monday was the day to realize expectations. The opening today extended the profit effect, then divergence appeared, and many robot stocks fell back, which was already considered last Friday.
After the quantitative realization here, no new themes emerged to take over these funds, so the probability of intraday outflow is relatively high, which can also be understood as quantitative trading doing intraday arbitrage, selling high and buying low.
So after saying so much, the summary is quite simple. As I said before, the resonance index repair theme is not ending so easily; at least it will fluctuate repeatedly in the next few days. Plus, a few hours ago during sector divergence, Yushu Technology performed very well, stabilizing the sector's lower limit, so there is no rush to short yet.
I've said a lot of valuable points, not sure if anyone can understand. Because I professionally trade A-shares, what I say might only be understood by those who trade A-shares. If you don't understand, just focus on the key point: don't rush to short. 【Whales earned $353 million, I don't even have that many Happy Beans】
On October 26, Abraxas Capital's two accounts on Hyperliquid accumulated profits exceeding $353 million, still holding about $1.29 billion in short positions. The numbers are intimidating, but don't rush to follow the shorts: the nominal value of shorts does not equal actual invested capital, and cumulative profits do not mean all these positions are profitable.
This institution was previously tracked shorting ETH while buying spot as a hedge: in August, it withdrew about $173 million worth of $ETH from Binance, possibly running a long-short strategy.
The market environment is indeed weak: $BTC dropped back near $80,000, and on October 23, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net outflow of about $636 million, so selling pressure is not imagined.
Next steps: watch whether Abraxas continues to increase shorts, simultaneously reduces spot holdings, and whether shorts take profits when prices fall; if BTC stabilizes and shorts start to cover significantly, this "smart money" trade could also turn into bullish fuel.Sisters, the most dangerous part of this ETH wave is not how much it has already dropped.
It's that the price keeps weakening, key supports are getting closer, yet more and more people in the market are bullish!
You might think the drop is a buying opportunity, but what if the support breaks? Would those buying the dip instead become the driving force for the next wave of decline?
Look at the trend over the past two days, $ETH has been pressured down from 2368, with the lowest point around 2291.
There were rebounds in between, but every time it pulled up, it failed to truly reverse the downtrend.
Now the price is back around 2312, which looks like it has stabilized.
But what I’m more concerned about is: is this rebound really someone stepping in to buy, or just a breather that makes people let their guard down during the downtrend?
First, look at the long-short data: long accounts already account for 71.52%, shorts only 28.48%, with a long-short ratio of 2.51.
Market sentiment is clearly leaning bullish, and many are expecting a rebound.
But sisters, remember, more long accounts don’t mean these people have bigger funds, nor does it guarantee the market will move the other way.
What’s truly worth cautioning is that if everyone is waiting for a rise but the price can’t move up, once disappointment spreads, the market could get uglier.
So my view still leans bearish.
The trend is weakening, support is right ahead, but bullish sentiment is getting more crowded.
What we need to watch next is not who shouts the loudest, but where the price actually goes.
$BTC
$ZEC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH's drop this round looks worse than $BTC's, and the reason isn't in the market itself but in the October subscription and redemption report.
The spot ETH funds have seen a cumulative net outflow exceeding one billion dollars this month. During the same period, Bitcoin funds still had a net inflow of three hundred million last week—the early-month losses were basically recovered in the following days.
This is not a general market decline; it's capital choosing between the two leaders. On the BTC side, corporate treasuries are financing and taking positions off-exchange, but on the ETH side, there are no corresponding buyers: the largest listed company buyer stopped once their position hit a self-imposed limit, leaving only the ETF route, which is currently flowing out.
The significance of 2300 is not because it's a round number. If spot falls below 2286, leveraged long positions worth nearly seven hundred million dollars on major exchanges will enter forced liquidation zones—this threshold lies just below the critical level. So what really matters is not where it closes relative to 2300, but whether 2286 is touched.
What's more troublesome is that there's no compelling narrative now. Funds are leaking, the upgrade timeline remains unclear, and on-chain fees are so low that no one is queuing. Money, narrative, and usage are all simultaneously absent.
Above, 2370 is a resistance level, and beyond that is 2440. To rebound, we first need to see the subscription and redemption report turn from negative to positive—the price can bounce somewhat on liquidations, but that path is blocked, and after the bounce, it returns to the same place.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC Gold price fell below $4,000, and the crypto community is saying "BTC has dropped back to 80,000." Let's measure with a different ruler: How many ounces of gold can 1 BTC exchange for now?
🥇 2025/8 High: 36.7 ounces
📉 2026/3/1 Low: 12.3 ounces
📍 Now: 19.9 ounces
From March 1 to now, BTC has only risen about 22% in USD terms; in gold terms, it has risen 62%. The difference is all in the gold price: it dropped from 5,360 to 4,014 during the same period, a 25% decline.
So "BTC is weak" and "BTC is stronger than gold" can both be true, depending on what ruler you use. Just don't celebrate too early; it's still nearly half away from the 36.7-ounce high.
Price changes are not just about the price itself, but also about what you use to measure it.
Data compiled, not investment advice｜OKX BTC-USDT ÷ XAUT-USDT daily close #现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 $BTC Midterm election “curse” about to replay? November 3rd becomes the observation window 🗳️📉
🔍 Historical review: After the 2018 midterm election, $BTC dropped about 45.5% within a month; in the same period in 2022, the decline was about 7%, showing a big difference in magnitude. The sample size is small, so "post-election must fall" cannot be taken as an ironclad rule.
🌐 Macro perspective: Elections may disturb regulatory expectations, fiscal imagination, and risk appetite, but BTC is more influenced by liquidity, interest rate paths, and institutional funds. The real signal lies in the capital flow, not slogans.
📌 Key observation: Around $80,000 is an important short-term support. If it breaks down effectively, beware of deeper pullbacks; if it rebounds with volume and retakes this level, short-term pressure may ease.
💭 Personal view: Volatility may rise before and after the election, but history will not simply repeat. Rather than betting on a crash date, focus on support levels and whether ETFs continue net outflows.
⚠️ Risk reminder: The above is a review of history and market conditions, not investment advice. Do not heavily short due to the election cycle; manage leverage and position size carefully.
Do you think the “curse” will replay this time, or will BTC chart an independent course? Feel free to discuss👇#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 昨晚，一条价值2.72亿美元的多头仓位距离爆仓只差30美元。$ETH 最低插针至2282，而这位巨鲸的ETH清算价挂在2256——换句话说，市场再往下多走一根影线，近4亿美元的$BTC与ETH多头组合就会瞬间归零。这不是电影情节，而是过去24小时真实发生的杠杆惊魂。 真正值得玩味的不是他差点死掉，而是他活下来的方式。凌晨紧急补入921万USDC保证金，把ETH清算线从2256硬生生压到2181，暂时推出ICU。这个动作本身就是信号：大资金选择扛，而不是砍。在我看来，这恰恰是当前市场最容易被误读的地方——散户看到的是暴跌，聪明钱看到的是防线后移。 ETH这波下跌的暴力程度被低估了。四小时内从2527直坠2358，下方流动性几乎被一次性扫空。更关键的是，最近一簇密集的多头清算带就压在2340至2370，意味着价格刚刚踩过雷区边缘，而非彻底出清。$BTC 那边同样留有隐患：82000至83800是空头止损的集中区，脚下80000以上的多头清算带也尚未被完全清扫。市场结构因此呈现一种微妙的分裂——ETH已趟过最近的雷，巨鲸暂时安全；BTC的引信却还埋着。 过去24小时全网爆仓超8亿美元，多单占First consider the worst-case scenario: if the decline continues, leveraged positions might trigger forced liquidation before a rebound occurs. When I look at this message, the key point is not breaking 100, but how much drawdown the account can withstand. Hyperliquid perpetual contract market shows that $SOL just fell below $100, currently at $99.96, down 2.37% in 24 hours.
⚠️ I am more concerned about two risks: the position size is about $551 million; if volatility increases, leverage may exacerbate forced liquidation pressure, but position size alone cannot confirm a chain liquidation; the funding rate is 0.0013% per hour, if it remains positive, longs have to bear funding costs while waiting. This is data from a single platform and should not be taken as a complete picture of the entire market.
My risk control habit is to first write down the maximum loss per order that the account can bear, then check if the position size and stop loss match. Stop loss may also experience slippage, so preset loss should not be treated as an absolute limit.$BTC
In the last bull market, there were a total of 6 major corrections
Each correction ranged between
20%-30%
The last bear market corrected by
77%
This bear market corrected by
53%
Each cycle of bear and bull market fluctuations is getting smaller. With smaller fluctuations, larger leverage is required to achieve previous returns. This is why normal fluctuations now cause long liquidations equal to previous major downturns.
According to the pattern of decreasing volatility, the correction range for this bull market is
10%-15%
We are now at the tail end of this correction