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As the U.S. midterm elections approach, the market is focusing on how the shift in congressional control will impact crypto regulation. The current Congress's crypto regulatory bills have encountered obstacles, and the outcome will determine whether the new Congress will restart related legislation. If it leans crypto-friendly, it will help clarify the regulatory framework and benefit institutional capital deployment; if regulatory tightening expectations rise, Ethereum's DeFi ecosystem will face greater pressure, typically underperforming Bitcoin. Before the election results are finalized, polling fluctuations will amplify market volatility, with long and short positions being liquidated back and forth. But it is important to understand that the midterm elections are merely a catalyst for the market; the core factors determining the major trends of BTC and ETH remain the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and ETF capital flows. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Trump: "The moment of decision" has arrived, either negotiate or fight. Four possible scenarios before the midterm elections👇
① Continue with rhetoric, no immediate action (most likely)
Starting a war would push up oil prices and increase casualties, which would backfire on the Republicans. Iran also wants to wait for the election results. The market will fluctuate repeatedly with the news.
② Achieve limited diplomatic results
First reach partial consensus on reducing attacks and ensuring shipping safety, leaving difficult issues for after the election. Risk appetite will recover in the short term, but sustainability depends on whether shipping truly improves.
③ Limited strikes to show toughness
If the deadlock harms the tough image, Trump might opt for a quick decisive strike. But the scale of the strike is controlled by the U.S., while the scale of retaliation is not. If Iran restrains itself, the impact will be short; if energy facilities are affected, it will get out of control.
④ Forced escalation due to sudden events (most to guard against)
U.S. military casualties, new Israeli actions, or obstruction of the strait could all ruin the "wait until after the election" plan. Oil prices will rise again, and U.S. stocks and Bitcoin will be sold off first.
Watch closely for three signals: whether there is a joint arrangement, whether shipping improves, and whether there are major casualties.
The election gives Trump the motive to control the situation but does not give him the ability to control the opponent's reaction.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ In short: Q3 depends on whether the fundamentals can be stabilized; HBM4 is not about the present, but about the expected realization of AI storage's second growth curve.#OilFlowsRecover
*Oil flow recovery this week — short summary:*
*What happened:*
- *September rebound was real:* Gulf crude exports *+4.4 mb/d to 13.9 mb/d* in Sep — *>75% of pre-war*. Hormuz total flows *+3.7 mb/d to 10.9 mb/d* (ship-to-ship transfers + East-West pipeline). IEA says global supply 102.3 mb/d in Sep.
- *This week crashed again:* Oct 7 Hormuz flows dropped to *2.72 mb/d from 12.26 mb/d* on Oct 4 due to Houthi attacks. Weekend attacks on Saudi airport + oil facilities. ETH near 2300, BTC holding 80,000: Which one shows support first, and is worth following?
I will first check if BTC holds 80,000 USD, then look at ETH's support at 2300. The reason is simple: if BTC stabilizes at this key level, it indicates that the overall market risk appetite has at least not worsened; ETH bouncing near support might just be a short-term rebound, and entering solely on that could mean buying into a retracement. Currently on OKX spot, BTC has just returned above 80,000, while ETH remains near its 24-hour low, with strength and weakness not yet reversed.
However, "BTC stabilizing first" doesn't mean ETH can't strengthen first. If ETH repeatedly tests but doesn't break below 2300, raises its lows, and reclaims the 24-hour opening price near 2353, while BTC holds 80,000, that would be a higher quality relative strength; if it's just a wick pullback without volume support, I wouldn't call it a confirmed support.
Conversely, if BTC breaks below the 24-hour low near 79,378 and fails to rebound above 80,000, even if ETH temporarily holds 2300, it could be dragged down by the broader market; if ETH effectively breaks below around 2293 and fails to rebound, its own support judgment fails. My observation sequence is BTC first providing the risk bottom line, then ETH confirming the bounce. If ETH reclaims 2353 first and continues to outperform while BTC remains sideways near 80,000, then the "look at BTC first" judgment should be overturned.
$BTC $ETH #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 收着资金费，仓位也可能越扛越吃力。夺竿秋在10月26日的持仓更新中称，麻吉大哥的HYPE空单未实现亏损为253.7万U，资金费收入为109.36万U。这是作者提供的记录，尚未经独立核验，并非实时持仓。 若这些数字口径一致，资金费只能抵消部分浮亏，不能把这笔空单说成盈利。收入看着可观，也不代表继续持仓就能覆盖价格逆向波动。 我的看法是，BTC空、ETH多、HYPE空同时存在，不等于风险已经对冲；不同币种走势分化，反而可能让亏损集中在一条腿上。 你会先看资金费能收多少，还是先看亏损仓位有没有缩小？ 来源：夺竿秋 https://www.okx.com/zh-hans/orbit/post/91055354823168It's just past 1 PM, I just finished lunch and opened the market screen. Do you feel like BTC is now oscillating up and down and seems to have stabilized, making your hands itch to jump in and bottom-fish? Don't rush to act yet!
Look at the green bars in front on the $BTC chart: there is indeed a net inflow of fifty to sixty million in 1-hour and 2-hour intervals. Retail investors think the opportunity has come and rush in hard, but if you look further right at the long-term data, the 30-day contract net outflow is as high as 7.682 billion, and spot has also lost 1.237 billion. The short-term inflows are all to lure retail investors to take the bags; big money started a crazy retreat a month ago.
Now look at $ETH — this data is even more painful! The short-term 1-hour just saw an inflow of over 80 million, but over 30 days, contract funds have fled 8.595 billion, and spot outflow is 3.784 billion. The capital loss in ETH is even more severe than BTC. Every short-term rebound is providing liquidity for big money to unload.
Finally, look at $SOL — it’s somewhat more resistant to decline, but the 30-day contract has also outflowed nearly 2 billion. The overall trend is still outflow.
Summary: Don’t be fooled by the green bars in front of you for just a few dozen minutes. This is called giving you a little sweetness in the short term while hollowing out your principal in the long term. Big money is cashing out crazily on the rebounds. Without real gold and silver to support the bottom, what can drive the price up? I firmly stay out of the market and watch the show.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Today I came across discussions about BNB's new L1, and the reflex of opportunists: a new chain, is there a new coin? 😂
I checked the official info, and the answer is straightforward: no new chain coin will be issued; BNB will continue to be used. It's not about retiring BSC, but launching another chain aimed at scenarios like trading, payments, AI, etc.
I actually think this is more worth discussing than performance specs. Every time a new chain is made, it doesn't necessarily have to come with a new coin, forcing users to re-study valuation, circulation, and unlock schedules.
But since it's still in internal development, the public testnet and mainnet aren't open yet, so don't rush to find faucet links.
What I really want to see is whether it can retain users by being practical without relying on the airdrop expectations of a new coin. That's more interesting than how many TPS are shouted at launch events.Is ZEC about to take a big hit? I just saw that Josh Swihart, the core developer of Zcash, publicly opposed Shielded Labs' Crosslink staking proposal, arguing that it increases risks and lacks sufficient community consensus, so the upgrade has been paused. On the very same day, both $ZEC and $XMR experienced noticeable declines. First of all, everyone knows that ZEC's gains over the past three months have been the only independent rally in this cycle, so although this drop isn't particularly large and may not necessarily be related to this news, it still deserves special attention. This is because it's the first time ZEC has encountered governance issues, rather than the privacy coin's biggest risk that the community has always worried about—regulation.
Secondly, while governance risks usually don't immediately reflect in the price, they gradually erode consensus premium. Crosslink aims to shift ZEC from PoW to hybrid staking, which affects the distribution of benefits between miners and token holders. Even though ZEC holders usually don't care about governance and only care about the narrative, historical experience tells us this is often the most vulnerable point, where internal splits can easily cause failure if not handled carefully.
That's all, DYOR SOMETHING STRANGE KEEPS HAPPENING EVERY 4 YEARS Look at the timing 2014, 2018, 2022 And no, I'm not talking about the clichéd 4-year cycle. I'm talking about the MID-TERM ELECTIONS 3 U.S. midterm election years = 3 brutal Bitcoin dumps $BTC lost roughly : 57% in 2014 73% in 2018 64% in 2022 Then came the years that followed : 2015: +34% 2019: +92% 2023: +155% The same sequence keeps showing up in the chart. A midterm year brings a major drawdown, and the following year brings a powerful recoveryFirst, consider the worst-case scenario: if more tokens continue to flow into exchanges and buying support is insufficient, short-term volatility could amplify. This is my stress test, not a result that has already occurred. According to Ember monitoring, a whale who subscribed to 100,000 ETH at $0.311 each in 2015 has transferred 50,000 ETH for the first time after holding for about 11 years, with 1,500 ETH already flowing into exchanges.
⚠️ I am more concerned about the uncertainty of potential selling pressure rather than the "ancient whale" label. First, transferring to exchanges does not equal selling, so directly assuming a dump can lead to misjudgment; second, their historical cost is extremely low, so you cannot use the average holder's cost basis to guess their willingness to sell.
Having done risk control, I am used to first verifying the maximum loss tolerable per transaction, including slippage, rather than guessing direction based on whales. Moving forward, I will only observe whether transfers continue and whether actual trades can absorb the volume.帕尔 $BTC 行情周报 -10.26 一、K 线分析 1）周线大区间仍在 60-98。行情掠夺 6W 后向上突破周 LH，吃掉上方 fvg 流动性打到 874，随后进入震荡下跌。目前已经连跌 3 周，整个 10 月基本都在震荡回调里，价格到了 eq 79 附近。 2）流动性：核心看 75。75 是 ssl，下方是大块 fvg。本周关键就是看这里会不会被掠夺。 按下跌预期，位置分三档： 1）77-78 吸筹震荡；突破 80、站稳 79 看涨 2）掠夺 75，插针 72 附近，再拉起站稳 75 3）延续下跌，测试 64-65 ob 二、数据分析 1）ETF 上周 ETF 总计流入 +3.01 亿，终结 10 月前两周连跌，但周内博弈很惨。前三日狂吸 +10.75 亿（周一 IBIT 爆买 6.65 亿打底，周三 IBIT+FBTC 合买 4.48 亿）冲击 $85k；周四受美股科技财报和油价冲击，单日暴砸 -6.36 亿，全周最终净流入 +3.01 亿。 IBIT 净流入 +5.66 亿单骑救主；FBTC（-1.17 亿）和 ARKB（-1.00 亿）是砸盘主力。 目前 $83.6k-$SpaceX's reported $40B GPU debt financing points to a sharper divide in AI infrastructure: lenders appear more willing to back compute expansion when it sits alongside established revenue from launches and Starlink. That does not prove rental-focused providers will fail, but tighter credit could make scale alone an insufficient strategy.
#SpaceX40BGPUFinancing $BTC $ETH $SOL
Sudden large capital inflow in 1 hour, but still huge outflow in 24h.
This kind of "long inflow short entry" divergence is usually an oversold rebound or a bull trap.
Before the major trend changes, do not blindly chase highs and beware of false breakoutsCore Market Assessment: $BTC BTC breaks below 80K support line, ETH under pressure with on-chain divergence
Compared to the previous trading day, a key shift has occurred: BTC has confirmed a drop below $80,000. Over the weekend, BTC declined stepwise, hitting a low near $79,280, currently hovering just below $80,000. More critically, 64% of net long positions are built above $81,993, meaning a large number of longs are at unrealized losses. If the price continues to fall, it could trigger a cascade of liquidation selling pressure. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached $481 million, with longs accounting for over 70%.
$ETH ETH also fell below $2,300, down about 2.58% in 24 hours. However, a notable divergence signal has emerged: Ethereum exchanges saw a net outflow of approximately 169,800 ETH in one day, the highest in nearly 4 months, reducing exchange sell-side supply and theoretically easing selling pressure. Yet, spot ETH ETFs recorded a cumulative net outflow exceeding $1 billion from October 1 to 22, indicating persistent capital pressure. Santiment marks $2,330 as a short-term key level; breaking below weakens the bottoming case, while holding above $2,500 strengthens bottom expectations.
Specific Trading Strategies
Bitcoin (BTC): Bearish below 80K, watch for retracements to long cost zones
Core Logic: $80,000 has shifted from support to short-term resistance. Until $81,993 (dense net long cost zone) is reclaimed, rebounds should be treated as shorting opportunities. However, geopolitical news (US-Iran conflict) could trigger sharp rallies, so shorting on the rebound requires caution.
• Short on rebound (main logic):
• Entry: If price rebounds to $80,500–$80,900 resistance zone (previous support turned resistance and intraday sell wall).
• Stop loss: Above $81,500 (near lower edge of net long cost zone).
• Target: First $79,300–$79,500 (intraday lows), then reduce position and target $78,000–$78,600.
• Short on breakdown (to guard against accelerated decline):
• Condition: 4-hour candle closes below $79,200.
• Target: Below $78,000, further down to $77,500.
• Stop loss: Back above $80,000.
• Counter-trend small longs (high risk, short-term only):
• Entry: Only attempt light positions near $79,200–$79,400 if clear 15-minute level bottom signals appear (high volume long lower shadow or double bottom).
• Stop loss: Below $78,900.
• Target: $79,900–$80,200 (quick in and out, no prolonged holding).
Ethereum (ETH): Weak follow-through, awaiting key level reaction
Core Logic: ETH technicals are weaker than BTC, and ETF capital outflows continue to suppress rebounds. However, exchange net outflows hitting multi-month highs warn shorts to be cautious of sudden rebounds from supply contraction. $2,330 is a key observation level marked by Santiment.
• Short on rebound (trend-following logic):
• Entry: If price rebounds to $2,330–$2,350 resistance zone (previous support turned resistance and key observation level).
• Stop loss: Above $2,380.
• Target: $2,280–$2,300 (intraday lows), then reduce position and target $2,250.
• Short on breakdown:
• Condition: 1-hour candle closes below $2,280.
• Target: $2,220–$2,250.
• Stop loss: Back above $2,320.
• Right-side small longs (requires strong confirmation):
• Condition: Only consider light longs if ETH recovers above $2,380 with volume and holds.
• Target: $2,450–$2,500.
• Stop loss: Below $2,340. Bottom fishing at current levels is not recommended.
Key Risk Management Reminders
1. FOMC is the biggest variable this week: The Federal Reserve's rate decision and Chair's press conference will occur this week. Ahead of the decision, large funds tend to stay on the sidelines, casting doubt on the sustainability of one-sided moves. If holding swing short positions, partial profit-taking or hedging before the meeting is advised to guard against sharp reversals triggered by hawkish/dovish statements.
2. Sudden geopolitical shocks: The risk of US-Iran military escalation remains, with high oil prices exacerbating inflation concerns. Any sudden military news could cause rapid sharp drops or spikes in risk assets. Strict stop-loss discipline is essential; do not hold through adverse moves.
3. High long crowding: BTC net longs are concentrated above $81,993, with ETH showing similar structure previously. This suggests rebounds may lack sustainability—each rally could face selling pressure from longs trying to exit losing positions. Long positions should be short-term only, not swing trades.
4. Thin liquidity: Currently in Asian early trading hours, order book depth is shallow, and small capital can cause sharp price moves. Use limit orders preferentially; avoid chasing with market orders.
Can PONS still be saved?
Today, PONS's data is basically flat compared to yesterday, with a daily trading volume of about $24M. Compared to the previous all-time high of $923M, it has shrunk by 97.4%.
Previously, I predicted that PONS's daily trading volume might stabilize between $30M and $40M. Now it seems that was too optimistic; I wonder if $20M can be maintained?
Looking at Robinhood Chain, the on-chain trading volumes for the past two days were $542M and $484M respectively. Compared to the all-time high of $3.5B, it has shrunk by about 86%, and its ranking in total chain trading volume has dropped to fifth.
PONS's slump is no longer just a problem of the project itself; the overall trading activity on Robinhood Chain is continuously declining.
For PONS to turn things around, it probably has to wait for Robinhood Chain to heat up again. The Federal Reserve holding steady in October is almost a foregone conclusion, with CME data showing only about a 10% chance of a rate hike.
Economists aren't really concerned about whether there will be a hike this time; 94% expect a pause.
The real key point is that the dot plot still shows 12 members believe there should be another hike this year, and several hawkish officials are likely to directly vote against the pause at this meeting.
At that time, attention should be paid to Waller's speech to see if he signals hawkishness 🦅.
The market is betting everything on December; currently, the probability priced in for a 25 basis point hike in December has surged to nearly 68%.
$BTC is currently struggling painfully around the 80,000 level.
In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated $670 million, with $457 million in long positions liquidated, triggering another wave of long liquidations—basically, if you dare to chase at 80,000, you'll keep getting cut.
However, contract open interest is rising, with both longs and shorts betting.
The likely script for this week is: no rate hike in October, possibly a short-term "bad news is priced in" pulse, but as long as Waller doesn't back down in the press conference, or even hints at action in December, the little space $BTC has ground out above 80,000 will soon be squeezed back down.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 BTC｜Liquidity Watch💧 10 / 26
1. Upper magnet: 81,000 – 81,350 has accumulated over $200 million in short liquidations and stop-loss orders (highlighted on the heatmap), exactly corresponding to the BSL above the weekend's high.
2. Lower magnet: Around 78,850 has gathered $188 million in long liquidations, exactly corresponding to the SSL below the weekend's low.
3. Next is last Friday's equal-height liquidity at 82,100, gathering $200 million in liquidations.The crypto market over the weekend sent a rather glaring signal: $BTC directly broke through $80,000, hitting a low of 79,700, marking the lowest point in over a month; $ETH weakened in sync, once dropping below 2,300. The real question is not the extent of the drop itself, but who ran first and who ran the hardest this time. First, let's look at the geopolitical trigger. In recent days, the U.S. has significantly reduced personnel deployments in the Middle East, with embassies in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Lebanon, Qatar, and Jordan all shifting to limited operations. Intelligence shows that Iran's actions targeting Americans have entered an advanced stage, and Trump has publicly stated that action against Iran could be taken at any time. When risk rises, the first reaction of capital is always to withdraw, and Bitcoin, as a risk asset, is the first to be sold off. But the more critical detail lies in the capital flow: ETFs moved ahead of the price. On October 22, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $635 million in a single day, followed by another $227 million outflow on October 24. $ETH's ETF performance was even worse—a $320 million withdrawal over a week, with outflow intensity ten times that of $BTC. This is not ordinary profit-taking but institutions proactively reducing positions before the event materializes. Here is an easily overlooked mismatch: while prices were still consolidating at high levels, the ETF channel was already bleeding continuously. Retail investors see the candlesticks, but institutions vote with their feet through liquidity. When the two directions diverge, it often means smart money is pricing in risk in advance rather than waiting for news confirmation. The outflow intensity of $ETH far exceeds that of $BTC, indicating that institutions are more#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
HBM4 itself is a super high gross margin product
1. Product Positioning
HBM is a high-end, high-bandwidth memory paired with AI server GPUs. HBM4 offers higher bandwidth, faster speed, and a higher unit price than HBM3E, with gross margins far exceeding those of ordinary DRAM/NAND. It is one of SK Hynix's most profitable products.
2. Customer Binding
Mainly supplied to leading AI chip manufacturers like NVIDIA. The continuous capital support for AI computing power keeps driving HBM orders. Long-term supply agreements have been signed with core major customers, ensuring strong demand certainty.
3. Technological Leadership
SK Hynix is a first-tier HBM manufacturer, having delivered HBM4 samples early and steadily improved yield rates. The 12-High version has entered customer validation and supply stages, while the 16-High version is progressing continuously, maintaining technological competitiveness.
✅ Mid-to-long term: HBM4 is SK Hynix's most important profit growth engine
⚠️ Short term Q3: HBM4 is more of an "expectation story" with limited incremental profit impact this quarter. This quarter's performance mainly relies on price increases of HBM3E and regular storage.#SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? Just after closing the chest under the surgical light, the monitor is still ticking. What I see is not a price curve, but an enlarged heart supplied by a single coronary artery—this is the current lesion of intelligent computing expansion. Musk said Space Exploration Technologies Corp secured $40 billion in GPU debt financing for compute chips to be delivered in the first half of 2027; meanwhile, he warned that the debt market has basically stopped funding intelligent computing data centers without other income sources and predicted that over 200 emerging intelligent computing cloud providers will fail or consolidate. Don't mistake the crash for the cause; that's just the monitor alarm. The real hemodynamic change is on the credit side: perfusion pressure drops, vascular resistance rises, duration mismatch occurs, yet myocardial oxygen consumption remains high.
Starlink and launch revenue act like collateral circulation, allowing Space Exploration Technologies Corp to maintain coronary perfusion; companies relying solely on compute leasing are like single-vessel disease, with concentrated customers, thin margins, and short debt maturities. Any credit spread widening is like donor vessel spasm, causing thrombosis at the anastomosis and myocardial stunning distally. The debt market refusing to continue funding data centers without other income is not emotional treatment but stopping ineffective perfusion; the merger phase of over 200 cloud providers is the necrotic zone after extensive myocardial stunning. The first to fall are not the smallest but those with the poorest collateral circulation. The linked tokens follow this hemodynamic pattern: price volatility is arrhythmia, credit spread is perfusion pressure; looking only at price curves is like watching heart rate without stroke volume—before ventricular fibrillation, the monitor can be very quiet. The real risk is not chip delivery delays but mismatch between financing terms and cash flow recovery, like the heart unable to eject autonomously when weaning from extracorporeal circulation; the real opportunity is not in emotional rebounds but in building income structures with multiple collateral flows. Mergers are not recovery but redrawing necrotic boundaries; debt is not a cardiotonic but a volume load—too much causes pulmonary edema. Compute expansion without collateral circulation is not growth but myocardial ischemia; the first sign of ventricular fibrillation never appears on the price chart. #spacex40bgpufinancingThree round numbers came under pressure on the same Sunday, and the resulting price action was less a clean selloff than a slow grind that punished both sides. The macro backdrop explains the mood: October rate-hold odds have climbed above 87%, with Polymarket briefly touching 94%. That should read as a tailwind, yet bulls are not pressing. The market has already moved on to pricing a December hike, and Goldman Sachs has begun flagging March of next year. When easing expectations are this fully Pouring 848,000 bitcoins directly into the raft foundation, a single quarter's unrealized gain of $2.09 billion is just rooftop neon, not a load-bearing wall. When I review such projects, I don't look at the renderings first; I check the structural calculation book first: fair value gains are book revaluations, equivalent to revaluing the floor price after land appreciation, which can raise net assets but do not automatically generate cash flow, nor do they change the load path.
What this company truly deserves attention for is the reinforcement ratio of its capital structure. Holding over 800,000 bitcoins is like making a super-large core tube a single-point main load-bearing system, with astonishing lateral stiffness, but redundancy, liquidity nodes, and dampers under extreme market conditions must be verified simultaneously. Repurchasing $176 million in preferred shares is like replacing old shear walls: if replaced with lower-cost capital for rigid repayment, it strengthens the capital structure; if done by consuming cash or continuing to leverage, it's like increasing foundation depth without dewatering—when the rainy season comes, settlement will be tested first.
Financing strategy is not about slogans; it's about duration matching and payment order. Preferred shares, convertible bonds, and common stock issuance are different grades of concrete, with completely different strength, shrinkage rates, and construction windows. Accelerating expansion at the peak of unrealized gains is like adding a floor on an uninspected slab; repairing the balance sheet through revaluation, extending debt duration, and reducing interest rigidity—that's structural reinforcement. The linkage of related token targets is more like a glass curtain wall: it reflects the outline of the main structure and amplifies light and shadow, but the curtain wall never bears the core tube's load. The underlying net assets thicken due to coin price revaluation, and token prices will be revalued; premium discounts, liquidity, and redemption paths are the node welds that must be inspected.
I only recognize one construction bottom line: treating unrealized gains as cash flow is like treating renderings as as-built drawings; if the next capital allocation chart does not clearly mark the reinforcement ratio of cash flow, the taller the building, the sooner you hear hollow sounds when the wind blows. #strategyq3btcgains$ONDO
Tokenized real-world assets connect blockchain infrastructure with financial products linked to traditional markets. Ondo operates in this space, where regulatory clarity, asset transparency, and access restrictions are just as important as technical execution. Growth in tokenized assets does not automatically translate into equal demand for the associated token. The distinction between product adoption and token value remains essential when evaluating this sector. Reviewing the weekend market, how should we operate today?
From the market perspective, BTC previously attempted to break through $85,000 but failed to hold above it, with obvious selling pressure above. On the last trading day last Friday, the spot ETF saw a net outflow of funds, with BlackRock-related outflows of about $110 million and a total market net outflow of about $138 million.
The most critical level right now is $79,000!
If this level can hold, there is still a chance for a technical rebound; but if $79,000 is effectively broken down, the focus should shift to support around $77,000 below.
Currently, the price is near $80,000. Should we buy the dip or short? My bias remains bearish, but I do not recommend blindly shorting at low levels. First, after the recent CPI release, the market has generally weakened and sentiment has not clearly improved; second, uncertainty remains around the US midterm elections, and macro risks may continue to affect risk assets; plus, with the Fed's FOMC meeting approaching, policy signals are still unclear, so short-term market fluctuations are possible.
$BTC: Watch for a rebound in the $81,000–$85,000 range and look for shorting opportunities based on actual price action; if $79,000 is effectively broken, then focus on support near $77,000.
$ETH: Watch for a rebound in the $2,350–$2,370 range and wait for signs of resistance before considering shorting.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ BTC narrowly defends the 80,000 mark, is there a turnaround after leverage liquidation?
Bitcoin experienced intense volatility over the weekend, briefly dipping to $79,200 before barely reclaiming the psychological $80,000 level. In the past 24 hours, approximately $547 million in leveraged positions across the network were liquidated, with over 110,000 traders facing liquidation, causing market sentiment to hit a freezing point.
However, on-chain data reveals a glimmer of hope. CryptoQuant shows that the one-year change in whale holdings has narrowed significantly from a previous reduction of about 282,000 BTC to just a 39,000 BTC decrease. Although it has not yet turned into a net increase, the selling pace of large holders has clearly slowed, easing supply-side pressure.
From a technical perspective, if a solid bottom can be established near $80,000, combined with the concentrated clearing of high-leverage positions, the market's fragility may actually decrease. Once selling pressure exhaustion is confirmed, BTC has the potential to recover toward the $84,000 range. The current bleakness may well be an expression of extreme sentiment rather than the end of the trend.
$BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 On the eve of the FOMC: Don't bet two days as one direction
The real challenge this week is two days, not choosing one direction:
1) Wednesday, October 28, 14:00 Eastern Time, FOMC decision. The probability of "no change" on Polymarket has reached 94%, up from 52% on October 14. 80,000 was smashed three times, but the group on-chain never stopped
Watching $BTC hover around 80,000 back and forth, honestly, it's a bit frustrating.
Four consecutive daily red candles, three consecutive weekly red candles, 80,000 has turned from "support" into a meat grinder of bulls and bears stabbing each other. The forums are full of voices saying "80,000 will break," ETFs have seen a net outflow of $67.41 million since October, and the sentiment is indeed bleak. But if you only look at this side, you will most likely miss what’s happening underneath.
$BTC: Under obvious bearish news, there’s a very strong hidden line
First, admit that the short-term structure is bearish. The price is running below the mid-to-long-term moving averages, rebound highs keep dropping, 68% of derivatives longs have been liquidated, and the long-short ratio is "artificially high," indicating more people are holding positions than actively attacking. None of this is false.
But what’s really worth pausing to look at is another set of data.
The 365-day simple moving average lies between 79,200 and 80,500. Over the past 9 days, the price has been tightly pressed between 80,000 and 86,000, and the 30-day volatility has compressed from 13% to 6%. When volatility converges to this extent, it usually means not "the market is over," but "the direction is about to burst out."
More importantly: ETFs are selling, whales are buying. CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin whales have net accumulated about 243,000 $BTC in less than three months, worth over $20 billion at current prices. The one-year whale holding change indicator narrowed from -282k $BTC to -39k $BTC, and selling pressure has been exhausting since July. What you see on the chart is 80,000 being repeatedly smashed; on-chain, you see wallets holding 10 to 10,000 coins accumulating at the fastest pace since February this year.
This is not a "call to bottom-fish," but an objective divergence: marginal sellers are decreasing, large holders are increasing, and the price is pressed near the moving averages. This structure won’t last forever. Glassnode frames corporate treasuries and ETFs’ cost basis between 80,000–81,500, meaning this level is not just a psychological barrier but a real cost line of substantial holdings. If it breaks, they hurt; if it holds, they have reason to defend.
$ETH: The supply story is real, but it lacks a "spark"
On the $ETH side, the chip structure is indeed solid.
Staking volume hit a record, about 43.7 to 43.8 million $ETH locked in validators, accounting for 35% to 36% of supply. Exchange balances have been squeezed to a historic low of 3.49%. To translate: the chips that can be dumped anytime are visibly decreasing.
But I don’t intend to overstate this story. Supply tightening is a "condition," not a "trigger." October spot $ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of about $955 million, and BlackRock’s products also had large outflows; short-term marginal buyers are indeed weak. The price halved from the August high to around 2,300, not because staking isn’t enough, but because fewer people are willing to bid at the margin.
So the significance of 2,300 is not that it’s an "iron bottom," but that it’s the psychological referee line for bulls and bears this round. Closing above it on the daily chart means the supply squeeze logic is still on the table; closing below means short-term trend strength must be acknowledged. Repeated bottom tests and rebounds in the past indicate funds are absorbing in this area, but absorption doesn’t mean immediate rally. What’s being ground down is never the price, but people’s patience.
The macro card: don’t wait for rate cuts, wait for "expectations to be fully priced in"
The original post said "just missing a macro catalyst," which is half right, but the direction needs correction.
On October 28 FOMC, CME and Polymarket show a hold rate probability between 87% and 94%. The market has long stopped pricing in a rate cut in October. The real suppressing variable is that the probability of a rate hike in December remains above 80%. In other words, the macro "bad news" has been mostly priced in but not fully realized.
If the FOMC holds steady as expected and the wording isn’t more hawkish than the market has digested, it’s not a "positive" for risk assets but rather "the hanging sword being lowered." What $BTC and $ETH need now is precisely a window of "uncertainty removal," not a rate cut.
My position discipline, clearly stated
No all-in on the left side, no chasing highs on the right side—this is my own rule, and I suggest you consider it.
$BTC: 79,200 is the key zone where the 365-day moving average overlaps recent lows. If it can’t close below on volume, scaling in on the left side is logical, but stop loss must be set below 79,000; if broken, accept it and don’t hold on. The confirmation signal upward is a volume-backed close above 80,700, which would indicate the short-term bearish structure is broken.
$ETH: 2,300 is the referee line. Holding it means the supply squeeze story continues; closing below means looking down to 2,280 or even 2,200–2,250. Don’t rush to catch falling knives with "faith." The first decent confirmation upward is a volume-backed close back above 2,400; before that, grinding is more likely than flying.
Finally, a frank word.
The hardest thing about this position is not the unclear direction, but that both sides make sense. ETFs are running, whales are buying; macro is hawkish, volatility is compressed to the extreme; $ETH supply is tight, but marginal demand hasn’t returned. The market deliberately makes the chart a "left and right slap" to make most people hand over chips before the direction emerges.
I don’t advise you to go full long or full short. I just say: if you believe around 80,000 is a long-term cost zone, don’t handle long-term positions with short-term anxiety; if you’re trading short-term, then honestly watch 79,200 and 2,300—exit if broken, hold and wait for confirmation if it holds. What’s being ground down is people, not coins.
$BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Institutional funds have already started to split. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $442.67 million this week, ending a streak of outflows, but Ethereum ETFs experienced net outflows of $224.9 million for four consecutive weeks, indicating that institutions have inconsistent pricing for risk assets. In the past 24 hours, the total network liquidation reached $523.58 million, with longs facing concentrated forced liquidations, showing that high-leverage positions remain very fragile. Justin Sun called for a return to real demand at TOKEN2049; the slogan is correct, but the market only recognizes liquidity.
While waiting at a red light, I tightened the strap on the delivery box and casually glanced at the liquidation chart. The BTC hourly-level bearish structure remains unchanged, moving averages are diverging downward, and MACD continues to weaken. There is a large accumulation of short liquidation pressure in the 82,000 to 83,000 range, and the long liquidation intensity is also relatively high in the 79,000 to 80,000 area. In the short term, there is liquidity condition for a false breakout to the upside to test resistance again, but no trend reversal signal has appeared yet.
At the current price near 80,090, it is not advisable to directly chase shorts. Light short positions can be tested on a rebound to the 81,500 to 82,000 range, with a stop loss placed above 83,300. Take profit should first target near 79,000, and if broken, then look at the 78,000 level. If volume increases and price stabilizes above 83,000, the bearish logic is invalidated.
$BTC
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
@OKX星球 Brazil election surprise? Brazilian stock market falls!
$EWZ drops over 20%
The core trigger for this sharp drop in the Brazilian stock market is the reversal of the election result.
Previously, the market widely bet on the right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro winning, known in the circle as the "Bolsonaro trade."
Funds were optimistic that his administration would implement fiscal austerity, privatization reforms, and strictly control government debt, and this expectation had already pushed the stock index up in advance.
But in the end, Lula reversed the outcome and won re-election, directly breaking the market's previous optimistic pricing, causing funds to collectively close positions and flee, triggering a plunge in the index.
The market fears that Lula will continue the left-wing big government approach, maintain high welfare spending, and that fiscal deficits and public debt pressures will be difficult to contain.
Brazil's public debt-to-GDP ratio has already risen, and ongoing fiscal pressure will push up long-term interest rates, suppress corporate profits and stock valuations. The market also worries about possible future tax increases and interventions in resource companies, which will significantly impact heavyweight resource stocks like Vale and Petrobras.
Coupled with external headwinds, the Fed's high interest rate expectations persist, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, emerging market foreign capital is prone to outflows, and the real exchange rate is simultaneously under pressure and depreciating, further amplifying panic.
Commodity price volatility also adds extra pressure to the Brazil stock index, which is heavily weighted in resources.
In the short term, the market will continue to trade on fiscal risks. Going forward, the focus will be on Lula's fiscal plan statements for the new term and the situation of foreign capital inflows.
Will the U.S. midterm elections also see such large fluctuations?💻Breaking down by code review: The input is detected by Onchain Lens, reporting that multiple users of Bloom Trading have had their wallet assets stolen. The suspected thief address received 9,408 $SOL, approximately $954,000, involving 49 victims, with actual losses possibly higher.
My judgment: For ordinary users, this is primarily a permission security alert and cannot be directly attributed to the chain itself. Logically, multiple victims require investigation of common interaction points, but the material does not provide the root cause, so we cannot directly "convict" the platform or a specific vulnerability. A potential bug is treating disconnection as revoking authorization, which are not the same.
If I were to revise the security process, I would separate the investigation of connection, authorization, and key risks, then handle the remaining assets according to risk to avoid fixing the wrong part. Everyone, please help review: When encountering such an event with an unclear root cause, would you first check the authorization records or migrate the assets first, and what is your reasoning?Plunged 13%, what happened?
Wall Street bet wrong!
This morning Beijing time, heavy news came from Brazil: Bolsonaro Jr., supported by Trump, lost in the second round of the presidential election, and the incumbent president Lula successfully won re-election.
European and American stock markets were closed, and the first to react was the Japanese stock market, where the Brazilian ETF plunged 13%.
Why is Lula's re-election understood as negative news by the mainstream financial circles in Europe and America?
The main reason is that Trump strongly supported Bolsonaro and his son and did not want to see Lula re-elected.
Jair Bolsonaro (Bolsonaro Jr.'s father), born in 1955, served as Brazil's president from 2018 to 2022, known as the "Brazilian Trump," with a political style, populist mobilization methods, and conservative stance similar to Trump.
Lula, who successfully won re-election, was born in 1945 and was elected president of Brazil for the fourth time. His opponent in this year's election was Bolsonaro Jr., born in 1981. Therefore, Lula's election is a major setback for Trump's Latin America strategy.
The market fears that the U.S. will impose the previously threatened 50% tariffs and initiate a Section 301 investigation, including more Brazilian exports (steel, pulp, aircraft parts, processed agricultural products) on the high tariff list.
There are important meetings in the first four days of this week, and the main forces will continue to stabilize the market. Whether there will be significant favorable policies remains to be seen. The policy bottom has appeared, but the market bottom still needs verification. The Federal Reserve has a rate meeting this week and is likely to keep interest rates unchanged.
Note: This article is for sharing opinions and information and does not constitute any investment advice. 80,000 is not a solid bottom; it's a cover-up for this round of bulls.
$BTC softened again in the Asian morning session, at 79,800, grinding at this level for the third time. $ETH directly kicked below 2300, and $SOL can't even hold above 100. Altcoins are falling harder than Bitcoin; this isn't rotation, it's bloodletting.
Most people are focused on Wednesday's Fed meeting, but what's really weighing on the market is something else: the market suddenly doesn't want to pay for the "story" anymore.
Alphabet's cloud growth of 82% is explosive, but capital expenditures soared to 205 billion, free cash flow turned negative, and the stock was still hammered after hours. The AI narrative shifted from "growth competition" to "cash flow competition," and as tech stocks' risk appetite shrinks, crypto, as a high-beta asset, is the first to be dragged down. $BTC's volume increased during earnings week—not because someone is bottom-fishing, but because someone is rotating out to escape.
Back to the Fed. October's pause is almost a sure bet, but the probability of a rate hike in December has already topped 75%. As Lao Zhang said sharply: the real knife is hidden in the wording; interest rate expectations are the Damocles sword hanging over $BTC's head.
There's a detail on the chart more painful than the price: the long-short ratio rose from 1.55 a week ago to 2.2, retail investors are adding longs, but 670 million was liquidated in 24 hours, of which 457 million were longs. The more bullish you are, the harder you get hit. The ETF side isn't peaceful either; BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day outflow of 254 million, institutions chose to reduce rather than hold above 80,000.
Now everyone is waiting for the 79,000 level to give an answer. If it holds, it's a recovery; if not, panic selling will act before you do.
Before Wednesday, I choose to watch the show. What about you, act or wait?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 Google Cloud +82% YoY to $24.8B last quarter (Q2). Margin 35.6%, backlog $514B. They added more incremental revenue than Search.
CapEx $45B, FCF negative, 2026 guide still massive. Demand is real.
Q3 reports Oct 28. Another strong Cloud print keeps the AI bid alive for risk assets. CapEx scare = dip.
Positioning before or fading the print?
#AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI On the eve of the FOMC, the blood inside the market was almost drained.
Gold just broke below 4000 last Friday, hitting a low of 3975, but after a weekend, it stubbornly climbed back above 4000. Crude oil is even more interesting—Middle East export volumes have recovered to over 80% of pre-war levels, transportation is resuming, yet Brent remains stuck between $110 and $117, unable to drop. Freight rates have soared from $4 per barrel a year ago to $30 now, with Middle East routes at $35. What is this? This is called geopolitical premium not going away, just changing the way they charge you.
Both gold and crude oil pools are simultaneously being drained. Safe-haven money flows to gold, inflation money flows to crude oil, and liquidity in risk assets in the middle is being squeezed. The crypto market now faces a pool that is either stagnant or shrinking.
$BTC at 80,000 is holding up poorly.
Early session dipped and pulled back, with 15-minute level rebound volume pitifully thin. The real sting is the on-chain trump card: retail $BTC deposits on Binance doubled in 30 days from 5.5 billion to 10.75 billion, the fastest in nearly six months; meanwhile, whale inflows to exchanges dropped 36%, shrinking from 5.9 billion at the end of August to 3.8 billion. In plain terms—retail investors are queuing above 80,000 to send chips to exchanges, whales are quietly accumulating below, but their pace has clearly slowed. At the start of the month, ETFs still saw a single-day net outflow of 600 million, keeping sentiment tightly suppressed. Above 82,000, trapped positions pile up layer upon layer, without volume, pushing up is just providing liquidity for others to exit. A second dip is not a scare tactic, it’s the most common script in a zero-sum game.
$ETH at 2320 is even more exposed than BTC.
ETFs have continuously bled over 1 billion, Glamsterdam’s promised upgrade on October 26 was delayed again, and the whole network is shouting $ETH is done. Daily charts show bearish alignment, RSI stuck in the oversold zone between 34 and 40, the problem of falling without rising hasn’t changed at all. But one data point most people missed: 170,000 $ETH were withdrawn from exchanges in a single day on-chain, staking volume has reached over 43.7 million, accounting for 35% to 36% of circulating supply. More importantly, $ETH’s on-chain realized price is about $2311, and the current price of 2320 is right on this cost line. 2300 is not a technical support, it’s the bulls’ last shred of dignity. Holding it means a false sell-off; breaking below leads to 2180, and further down is a psychological vacuum zone.
The practical takeaway: before the FOMC decision lands, don’t be cannon fodder in low-volume moves.
The decision in the early hours of October 29 has an 84% to 90% probability of no change; the market consensus expects a hold, but every word in Powell’s press conference could overturn the table. The fear and greed index has dropped from greed at the start of the month to around 50, neutral to slightly cold, but far from the extreme panic “golden pit” zone. This means truly bloodied chips have not yet flooded out.
Before volume confirmation on the right side, every "bottom fishing" in low-volume oscillation is a gamble on luck, not trading. Whales are hoarding for the long term; retail is cutting losses for short pain. The tug-of-war in between is about who cracks first.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC $ETH is temporarily stable, but don't take it as a "bottom" signal: BTC holding 80,000, ETH holding 2300 is bleeding control, not a takeoff
Why call it "temporarily stable":
BTC 79.8K–80K long lower shadow support, hasn't broken the 79.2K previous low, bulls firmly defending the 80,000 level
ETH 2300 hasn't closed below daily, 2310–2330 reclaimed, short-term selling pressure exhausted but not turned bullish
Volume hasn't expanded, RSI weak (BTC ~40 / ETH ~36), this is a "bear trap rebound," not a spot market attack
ETF withdrew a total of 774 million last Thursday to Saturday, buying hasn't continuously returned, institutions dare not bet before FOMC (10.27–28)
Key levels:
BTC: support 79,800–80,000 / 79,200; resistance 81,200 → 82,400 → 85K+
ETH: support 2,315–2,330 / 2,275; resistance 2,365–2,400 / 2,425
True stabilization signal: BTC daily close above 81.2K with volume + ETH back to 2,400 + ETF net inflow
Stability means "caught after falling down stairs to catch a breath."
It's not a bull market return, it's the 80,000 defense line holding + liquidation clearing + waiting before FOMC.
A rebound reaching 81.2K is acceptable; failing to surpass 82.4K is just a fake smile. $BTC Stayed up all night watching this lousy market, the ashtray is full, and my heart is completely cold.
Rode the roller coaster until now, the fattest chunk of meat not only wasn't eaten, but even the last bit of base position in my pocket was taken out and washed clean. What's most frustrating for the mindset? Even the most resilient ETH turned from profit to loss. The defense line that was broken wasn't the price, but the breath holding on without cutting losses.
$ETH opened at an average price of 2314.89, now directly dropped to 2307.75. Floating loss -6.16U looks small, ROI -6.16% is just a needle prick, but the pain is that—it's ETH. This wave of ETH rolled down from 2430, now gasping around 2300, RSI hanging weakly between 33 and 36, after breaking the 200-day moving average at 2320, the previous low defense zone between 2280 and 2300 is the last face to save. The 1042% margin rate is indeed stable, so stable that even the qualification to stop loss seems redundant, can only watch it slowly decline. The stabilizing needle is leaking, more painful than altcoin crashes.
$DOGE is even more annoying. Bought at 0.0757199, current price 0.076391, floating profit +17.72U, ROI +17.72%. The numbers are in the red, but I can't smile at all. The highest profit of over 50U was forcibly squeezed down to just over 17U. $DOGE spot ETF had a net outflow of $538,000 last week, the largest single-week outflow since mid-August, institutions are clearly pulling back, if 0.0764 breaks again, below is a vacuum zone. The 834% margin rate barely keeps it alive, Dogecoin isn't weak itself, but no one in the market is willing to support it.
$SOL is also half-dead. Average price 99.7, current price 100.65, floating profit +14.28U, ROI +19.05%. $SOL slid down from 109, the 100 level is repeatedly tested, RSI 36 to 37, structurally both highs and lows are moving down. ETF funds had a cumulative net outflow of about $68 million in October, big players' shorts above 100 are very obvious. $SOL is now taking selling pressure on its face, the 14U profit above 100 is as thin as paper.
Do you understand the essence of this sell-off? It's not retail investors cutting losses, it's high-leverage longs being collectively taken out. On October 22, spot $BTC ETF had a single-day net outflow of $635 million, the largest since June; 89% of liquidations were longs. Although weekly $BTC spot ETF data turned positive with 301 million inflow, October still had a net outflow of 314 million, IBIT ran 500 million in two days. Institutions are withdrawing, leverage is blowing up, altcoin ETF money is flowing out too. This is not a simple shakeout, it's a double kill script of leverage cleansing and ETF retreat happening simultaneously. $ETH, as the last long faith, is even starting to lose money, indicating this round of clearing is not over yet.
I just want to ask: Did you cut losses, or are you holding on like me?
$ETH $DOGE $SOL
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $BTC broke below 80,000, but the worst part isn’t the breakdown itself—it’s standing on the wrong side at this level.
Over the weekend, the low hit 79,226, turning 80,000 from a solid floor into a meat grinder. In 24 hours, over $800 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with longs making up the vast majority; more than 210,000 people were wiped out. Over $400 million in long positions evaporated within 4 hours, 94% of which were longs. This move isn’t just a simple technical breakdown—it’s a cascading liquidation caused by leverage.
But if the only word in your mind right now is “short,” I advise you to pause for three seconds.
Beneath the surface, there’s a very conflicting divergence.
ETFs are indeed bleeding. On October 22, there was a single-day outflow of 635.6 million, the harshest day since June. Over two days, a total of 774 million was withdrawn, giving back more than 70% of the 1.07 billion inflow from earlier in the week. BlackRock’s IBIT withdrew 254 million, Fidelity’s FBTC withdrew 217 million—clearly, institutional buying is pulling back.
What about retail? They’re stepping in. On Binance, retail inflows over 30 days rose from 5.5 billion to 10.75 billion, nearly doubling, hitting a six-month high.
Normally, retail buying while institutions exit would mean the crash continues. But whales aren’t cooperating. Since late August, the amount of BTC whales transferring into Binance dropped from 5.9 billion to 3.8 billion, a 36% decrease. More importantly, on-chain: wallets holding 10 to 10,000 $BTC have cumulatively increased their holdings by 85,000 to 89,000 coins since mid to late September, bringing pure whale holdings to the highest level since November 2025.
In plain terms: whales aren’t selling, but they’re not rushing to buy either. They’re waiting—for retail to hand over the bloodied chips, and for the FOMC to resolve uncertainty.
This is very different from “whales are retreating.” Reduced transfers to exchanges don’t equal selling; on-chain accumulation is the real trump card.
The 75,000 level isn’t just Peter Schiff shouting.
Peter Schiff has been calling for 75,000 for a long time, and many have laughed it off. But this time, the reason 75,000 deserves a serious look isn’t because of Schiff’s talk. Strategy (MSTR)’s average cost basis is around 75,000, and when the weekend low hit 79,000, it was only about $3,000 away from breakeven. Once this level is tested, it’s not a matter of “prediction,” it’s real chips speaking.
So 75,000 isn’t an empty short bet. It’s the next real level to watch whale activity—if they reach out again near there, that’s a zone worth serious consideration for support.
The FOMC is the real referee this week.
On October 28, there’s a 92.8% chance rates remain unchanged, so the result itself isn’t much of a surprise. But the real risk isn’t whether they hike or not—it’s the wording. If the Fed holds steady but tightens the tone for December, risk assets could be pressured again. Wintermute previously pointed out that 82,500 is a key watershed; if effectively broken, a move just above 70,000 isn’t impossible. Conversely, if the tone is dovish and core PCE doesn’t fuel inflation, combined with ETF capital inflows, the recovery above 80,000 will have a foundation.
The path of rates is ten times more important than the rate decision itself.
My stance is clear: below 80,000, no chasing shorts.
It’s not that you can’t be bearish, but the risk-reward of chasing shorts here is painfully bad. The bearish logic—ETF outflows, liquidation cascades, macro pressure—has already been mostly priced in. Chasing shorts near 79,000 targets a short-term range of 78,000 to 78,600 below, while above could be a quick rebound to 81,000 triggered by Fed wording or a whale buy order. The odds aren’t right.
I’m waiting for only two signals:
A decisive volume-backed break below 79,200 confirming short-term bears, then watching 78,000–78,600, with 75,000 only in extreme scenarios.
Or a volume-backed recovery above and hold at 81,000, invalidating the breakdown, easing liquidation pressure, then considering the right side.
Until either happens, the best position is patience, not direction.
The breakdown is real. But when sentiment is at its peak, that’s often when the market most wants you to stand on the wrong side.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.95%, with the first-level pair scale about $802; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 8%. Capacity limit set.
The first-level positive spread for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.68%, with the first-level pair scale about $992; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 10%. Small orders can probe, but large volume must look at deeper levels.
$SOL marked spread is positive, but the buy near sell far first-level quote is inverted. Near-month annualized +7.89%, far-month annualized +0.45%, near end is more expensive; marked near-far spread +0.1%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread -1.11%. Positive mark, negative first-level.India's largest telecom company is going public, but its stock is already being sold on-chain in advance.
Jio Platforms is the digital telecom business under Reliance Group, with 533 million users as of the end of June. The IPO subscription ended on October 23, oversubscribed by 22.19 times, with an issue price between 1065 and 1119 rupees, and it was listed on October 28.
On the same day, Hyperliquid launched JIO's pre-IPO perpetual contracts, deployed via HIP-3, offering 24/7 trading, up to 5x leverage, and isolated margin. The contract is pegged to the USD price of 1 share of Jio Platforms, with an initial reference price of $13.
The data after launch is solid: 24-hour trading volume is about $908,200, open interest nominal value about $2,278,200, and the mark price is $12.963.
Using the $12.963 mark price and the 94.9432 exchange rate to convert, the implied stock price is about 1231 rupees, roughly 10% higher than the upper limit of the issue price. The market has already priced in some of the expected listing gains.
Two variables to watch: the stock price and the rupee exchange rate will both affect the quote; if the rupee depreciates further, the USD price will move accordingly. The contract also has a maximum 60-day listing grace period; if there is a serious delay, it may trigger alternative settlement.
So this is not risk-free arbitrage; essentially, it is a bet on the sentiment at the opening on October 28. With 5x leverage, a 10% premium retraction is enough to wipe out half the margin.76%的资金押注闪迪会超预期，这个数字本身就值得停下来看一眼。 你猜市场现在是在交易业绩，还是在交易"预期差"？ 美东时间10月29日盘后闪迪要出财报，预测盘口里超过七成资金站在"会超预期"这一边。表面逻辑顺得几乎挑不出毛病：AI数据中心需求还在扩，NAND报价往上走，公司自己给的营收指引是103亿到108亿美元。听上去像是一手好牌，对吧。 但我盯着这个76%有点发凉。押注比例这么高，意味着好消息已经被提前写进价格里了，剩下的悬念只有一个——下一季指引还能不能继续炸。市场早就不关心你上季卖了多少，它只想知道增长曲线会不会在这里拐头。前阵子西部数据就是活教材，业绩超了、指引也不差，股价照样往下走。只要闪迪的指引里透出一点利润率见顶、或者NAND涨价放缓的味道，这76%会瞬间从买盘变成砸盘的力量。 我更在意的是它和加密这边的跨市场传导。半导体是全球科技股的风险温度计，这份财报会直接拨动我们这边的情绪。偏多的路径是：业绩超预期、股价还能顶住抛压往上走，科技板块的信心稳住，BTC也能跟着松一口气，风险偏好回暖，山寨才有喘息的空间。偏空的风险则更隐蔽——如果业绩很好、股价却被当场摁下去，那说明华The ripple effect of AI credit cuts hit stock prices first: CoreWeave down over 10% in a week, Meta down over 9%
In the same week Elon Musk warned that new cloud providers couldn't get loans, the stock prices had already validated half of that for him. Last week, CoreWeave dropped over 10%, Meta fell over 9%, making AI trading a hard-hit sector. The chip index slightly rebounded, with SK Hynix US shares up over 4%, but Western Digital, despite good earnings, still fell 3%, indicating the market doesn't price based on earnings quality but rather on "how much the AI narrative is worth."
This chain of transmission is very clear: the bond market closes first, stock prices reprice next, and finally come orders and earnings. Musk's phrase "few will survive" is now understood by the market as: first, the valuation drops, then we see who can really survive.
The same applies to the crypto world: AI concept coins and computing power narratives now need to answer not "how big the story is," but "whether cash flow can cover debt." Companies that can't get loans and projects that can't issue tokens often end up the same way.
Regarding this AI stock pullback, do you think it's a shakeout or the start of a valuation system re-evaluation?
#SpaceX raises $40 billion, Musk warns of AI cloud credit cuts
$BTC📉 $BTC Capital Flow Alert: Short-term Bull Trap, Main Force Retreating?
Latest contract data shows a typical "short-term long, long-term short" divergence signal in the BTC market:
1. Short-term illusion: Slight net capital inflow at 5-minute to 1-hour levels (+10 million to 36 million), indicating quant or short-term traders are speculating on oversold rebounds.
2. Long-term reality: Significant net outflows across all periods over 2 hours! Over 2 billion outflow in 7 days, nearly 8.3 billion outflow in 30 days. This indicates that medium- to long-term main players are substantially reducing positions during the rebound.
3. Market sentiment: ETF capital inflows and outflows fluctuate sharply, contract open interest declines, indicating the market is "deleveraging." Retail investors are entering to buy the dip, while whales are contracting their battle lines #This week's announcement of the October FOMC interest rate decision? Is it the key to determining $BTC's direction?
It is an important catalyst, but not the only deciding factor. This FOMC is more likely to act as a "short-term volatility trigger" rather than the sole variable determining BTC's medium- to long-term direction.
Why is it called "key" but not "only"?
· The key lies in the expectation gap: The market has largely priced in "no change in October" (probability about 83%-90%). If the result meets expectations, BTC's reaction may be muted; the real risk lies in an unexpected rate hike or an extremely hawkish statement, which could instantly tighten liquidity expectations and suppress BTC.
· The real anchor lies elsewhere: Some analyses point out that compared to the Fed's overnight rate, the 30-year US Treasury yield may have a more direct suppressive effect on BTC. Currently, this yield hovers around a high of 5.6%, raising the risk-free return requirement, which is the "return hurdle" BTC finds harder to overcome.
· Internal factors are equally critical: BTC has recently been pressured due to concerns over the AI bubble, Middle East geopolitical risks, and ETF fund outflows, once falling below $80,000. Even if the FOMC dovetails, if these internal negatives are not digested, the rebound will be limited.
Conclusion: The FOMC is the biggest source of uncertainty this week (especially a hawkish surprise), but whether BTC can truly strengthen depends more on whether long-term US Treasury yields fall back and whether the internal capital situation in the crypto market stabilizes.After $HYPE recovered losses over the weekend, today it seems more like it's consolidating around 75–77, with a bullish bias seeing it as digestion before the rate decision, not a bearish reversal.
24h change is about −0.85%, with a high/low around 77.6/75.0, showing slightly more resilience compared to ETH. On-chain: HYPE perpetual daily nominal is about 280 million U, OI about 1.58 billion U; protocol perpetuals total about 3.84 billion, TVL about 8.19 billion. Buybacks have not stopped—Aid Fund bought about 13,000 tokens/~996,000 U on 10/25, holding about 48.27 million tokens; October revenue so far is about 53.49 million, with daily pace still aiming for the 60 million threshold.
Before the FOMC, will you wait for it to break above 80, or continue consolidating between 75–78? Feel free to share your thoughts.
$HYPE
Just personal observation, not investment advice. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $HYPE The Ethereum Foundation still chooses the most trafficked selling method: openly selling during market pullbacks 🫠
Its associated address 0x5CB…22059 sold 2,785 ETH via Cowswap two hours ago, worth 6.42 million USD; this is another sell-off by the foundation's associated entity following the $ETH deposit on 10.12, when the coin price was still $2534, now down nearly 9%
Wallet address 0x5CBC6299faB3320E7758ac97fd4CA45E5B722059"Floating loss of 22.78 million but still calm? The big short's trump card is 'holding on' (￣▽￣)"
This whale has cumulatively earned over $180 million, with another $25.22 million gained in the last 24 hours; currently, the combined floating loss on BTC, ETH, and SOL short positions is 22.78 million USD, approximately 12.06 million, 4.76 million, and 5.95 million respectively. Despite facing headwinds, the real focus is on position size.
He is short 2,637 BTC, nominal $210 million, 5x leverage, average price 76,327; short 106,400 ETH, nominal $250 million, 5x leverage, average price 2,322; short 720,000 SOL, nominal $73.87 million, 7x leverage, average price 94.3. Total nominal value is $530 million, a top-tier short hasn't fled (・ω・)ノ
The key lies in the liquidation price: BTC around 140,000, ETH 3,838, SOL 316, still far from current prices, making it hard for short-term volatility to force him out. Low leverage buys room, floating loss buys time; he is betting on 'time for price,' not immediate profit or loss (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
So although there are whale short positions pressuring from above, the real risk isn't the current floating loss but whether prices will continue pushing toward liquidation zones. Whether to follow or not, don't just focus on profit and loss numbers, first look at position management. Copying trades is fine, but first copy risk control (￣▽￣)
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 When I show newcomers this kind of news, I first ask: Did you buy fund shares, or a “coin” that has an independent price? The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved the world’s first tokenized funds offered to the public to be traded on licensed virtual asset trading platforms in the secondary market. Two existing recognized tokenized money market funds have started 24/7 trading today.
My judgment is that this is a substantial progress in the trading method for compliant funds, but it should not be directly interpreted as a positive for the entire token market. What changes is how shares are transferred, not that the underlying assets suddenly generate more returns.
📌 Using these two funds to explain a basic concept: subscription and redemption are entering or exiting according to fund rules; secondary market trading is the transfer of shares between investors. If the buyer’s price is higher than the fund’s net asset value, the extra amount paid is a premium. This is a mechanism example and does not mean these two funds have already shown a premium.
A common misconception among newcomers is equating “money market funds” with “transaction prices that do not fluctuate.” The underlying returns and purchase price are two different things; 24/7 trading increases operation time but does not change the fund’s asset nature. Also, the SFC said it monitors trading and will consider expanding the scope in due course, not that all products have been approved.
What else don’t you understand: why might the on-exchange trading price of these tokenized funds differ from the fund’s net asset value? Leave a comment, and I’ll continue to explain.#法国10年期国债收益率自2013年来首超美债 什么意思呢？ 就是借钱给法国，现在比借钱给美国利息还要高，这可是2013年以来的头一遭。 10月22号，法国10年期国债收益率直接飙到了5.14%，创下了2002年以来的新高。最关键的不是它自己涨，而是它竟然首次超过了同期限的美国国债！法国和德国的国债利差也扩大到了175个基点，创下15年新高。虽然评级机构穆迪维持了它的评级，但展望依然是“负面”。 小马哥给大家翻译一下这背后的白话： 以前大家觉得法国那是妥妥的发达国家，借钱给它安全得很。现在呢？市场觉得法国财政赤字太严重，预算谈判又搞成了一锅粥，政治也不稳定，大家怕它还不上钱，或者钱不值钱了，所以要求更高的利息才肯借钱给它。你想想，连核心欧洲国家的信用都遭到这种质疑，这绝对是传统金融市场的超级大地雷。 小马哥的个人看法： 这就是典型的“主权信用危机”苗头。这帮华尔街和欧洲的大资金是最怂的，一有风吹草动立马拔腿就跑。他们抛售法国国债，转手去买美债和德债避险。这叫什么？这叫全球流动性的再次收紧。现在宏观面本来就悬着美联储议息这个靴子，欧洲债市再这么一闹，高利率带来的融资