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Whether the rebound can continue is now more driven by news; just focusing on the K-line is far from enough (｡･ω･｡)
The US midterm election results are about to come out, and which party controls Congress will directly affect crypto regulation, fiscal policy, and market risk appetite. Tonight's JOLTS report, plus Friday's nonfarm payrolls, have the market pricing in December rate hike expectations, making macro-driven volatility easy to amplify.
BTC spot ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $643 million, with institutions still actively reducing risk. Although Bitcoin has shown resilience, the lack of sustained inflows only proves strong support below; the trend reversal cannot yet be confirmed.
ETH spot ETF had a single-day outflow of $156 million, with about $1.61 billion outflow over the past thirty days, facing the greatest midterm capital pressure. Contract sentiment leans bearish; if BTC stabilizes, ETH has a chance to stage a short squeeze rally (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
SOL spot ETF had a single-day outflow of $10.74 million, totaling about $144 million over the past thirty days. Officials remind validators to watch for Linux kernel vulnerabilities; currently, there is no evidence of breaches, nor is it a Solana code issue, but short-term sentiment has already been affected.
A simple summary of the outlook: BTC is suitable for steady holding, ETH is waiting for stabilization and recovery before looking for a rebound opportunity, and SOL is the most aggressive but also has the lowest fault tolerance 😊
#USMidtermElectionsAreComing, which results are worth watching?This trade has the potential to generate an estimated 5 million RMB in profits under a conservative projection. SanDisk is back in the spotlight, and I'm getting ready for the next move! But there's another major factor to watch: the US October Nonfarm Payrolls report. Employment growth could significantly influence expectations for a December Fed rate hike. Here's what I'm watching: - BTC: Overall market sentiment and liquidity. - ETH: Whether strength in major crypto assets continues. - SNDK: U.S. Midterm Elections｜Gold + BTC Correlation Analysis
1. Core Summary
The essence of the midterm elections is not a one-sided positive or negative; the core lies in how the congressional power structure determines fiscal policy, regulation, and dollar expectations; gold is anchored by "dollar credit, real interest rates, fiscal deficit, and risk premium"; BTC simultaneously has attributes of digital gold and strong regulatory policy, so their price trends may diverge in phases.
Historical pattern: The impulse market moves caused by election results are mostly short-term (1–7 trading days), while the medium- to long-term main drivers remain Federal Reserve interest rates and U.S. Treasury real yields.
2. Two Scenario Simulations
Scenario A: Democrats take both the House and Senate (currently the market's higher expectation)
✅ Gold Logic
With Democrats controlling both chambers, checks on the current administration weaken, making fiscal spending and debt ceiling negotiations easier to compromise, raising expectations for fiscal deficit expansion; this is long-term bearish for dollar credit and bullish for gold.
On the other hand: Democrats tend to be hawkish on inflation control, which will constrain the pace of rate cuts, slowing the decline of real interest rates and limiting gold's upside.
Market rhythm: The outcome is likely to first buy into the expectation being realized, with a short-term spike followed by a pullback; key focus on subsequent debt legislation, military spending, and welfare bills.
✅ BTC/Crypto Logic (somewhat bearish)
Democrats generally impose stricter crypto regulations; the SEC's strong regulatory stance will continue, the likelihood of the "CLARITY Act" passing further decreases, and scrutiny on stablecoins and platform compliance tightens; XRP and altcoins face greater pressure.
Bitcoin is relatively resilient: it has been classified as a commodity by regulators, ETF capital structure is stable, so bearish impact is less than on smaller coins, mostly sentiment-driven sell-offs, making a trend-level crash unlikely.
Scenario B: Republicans win at least one chamber, resulting in a divided Congress (a lame-duck government)
✅ Gold Logic (most bullish scenario for gold)
Divided Congress = policy gridlock. New legislation is hard to pass, large-scale fiscal stimulus unlikely; meanwhile, repeated debt ceiling and government shutdown risks increase U.S. sovereign uncertainty premium, which is gold's favored environment.
Markets worry about government shutdowns, stalled fiscal reforms, and dollar system uncertainty, leading to capital allocation into safe-haven assets; U.S. Treasury yields tend to be pressured downward, a double positive for gold prices.
Risk point: Republicans tend to control fiscal spending, which may lower inflation expectations and temporarily suppress gold.
✅ BTC/Crypto Logic (somewhat bullish)
Republicans are key lobbying targets for the crypto industry; large political donations from crypto mainly bet on Republican lawmakers; with Republicans controlling the House, they will restrain the SEC's aggressive regulation, push to restart discussions on the "CLARITY Act," and expectations for stablecoin and spot compliance frameworks will rise, benefiting Coinbase, BTC, and increasing risk appetite for these assets.
Bullish divergence: BTC and compliant sector coins show the strongest resilience; air coins and Ponzi schemes only follow sentiment pulses without fundamental support.
3. Gold vs. BTC Similarities and Differences
1. Similarities
Both are highly sensitive to dollar credit and U.S. Treasury real yields; during rising political uncertainty, theoretically both have safe-haven buying. In recent years, BTC and gold correlation has steadily increased, reinforcing the "digital gold" pricing logic.
2. Core Differences (key points)
- Gold: A century-old mature safe-haven asset with weak regulatory variables; main drivers are real interest rates, dollar, geopolitics, and fiscal policy. Elections act more as catalysts and rarely change the big trend.
- BTC: Policy weight is extremely high, regulation is an independent major factor. The same election result may cause gold to rise while BTC falls (Democratic win); or both gold and BTC to rise sharply together (Republican control of Congress), leading to trend divergence.
4. Market Rhythm Forecast (Trading Perspective)
1. Expectation Phase (before vote counting)
Capital pre-positions, market tends to price in early. If the market has already priced in a Democratic win, once results meet expectations, it is likely "good news is already priced in."
2. Vote Day to 3 Trading Days: Emotional Pulse Period
Highest volatility, many false breakouts, avoid chasing news; often the market moves opposite on the day, buying expectations and selling facts is common.
3. Medium Term (1–2 months)
Election heat fades, capital refocuses on Fed dot plots, inflation data, and U.S. Treasuries; election impact gradually diminishes.
Historical review: In the 2018 and 2022 midterms, BTC experienced sharp volatility around elections, but subsequent trends were ultimately driven by monetary policy; gold's election impulse moves generally lasted very short and rarely led to a sustained bull market.
5. Key Monitoring Indicators (Focus for Watching)
Gold Tracking
- U.S. 10-year TIPS real yield (primary core indicator)
- Dollar Index
- CPI, fiscal deficit, debt ceiling timeline
Crypto Asset Tracking
- "CLARITY Act" proposal schedule in the new Congress
- SEC Chair and Commissioner personnel hearing statements
- BTC spot ETF fund inflows and outflows
- Stablecoin regulatory bill news
6. Risk Summary
1. Gold: Midterm elections are catalysts, not trend drivers; do not overweight based solely on election results; if real interest rates continue rising, gold prices will be pressured even amid political turmoil.
2. Crypto: Policy expectations can reverse quickly; regulatory bearishness is a hard damage; domestic participation is strictly prohibited; do not be attracted by short-term positive narratives.
3. Biggest Black Swan: Election disputes, ballot litigation, and social unrest will simultaneously raise gold's safe-haven premium; BTC is a risk asset and under extreme liquidity squeezes will fall with risk assets—it is not a traditional safe haven.🚨 BITCOIN IS AT A MAKE-OR-BREAK MOMENT — WILL $76K HOLD OR ARE WE HEADING LOWER? 👀
$BTC is hovering around $77,251, down 0.7% in the last 24 hours following the recent Binance hack-related market shock.
Right now, all eyes are on one important level. The next move could set the tone for Bitcoin's short-term direction. 📉📈
📊 Key levels to watch:
Support: $76,000–$76,600
200-day EMA: $76,463
Resistance: $79,500–$80,500
20-day EMA: $80,181
#OKXOrbit #BTC #Bitcoin
#DailyOrbit Full-screen good news but continuous decline? Unveiling the extreme split truth of the crypto market!
The market is experiencing a counterintuitive "great split": macro funds are fleeing in panic, while on-chain infrastructure is surging ahead. BTC is struggling around 77,000, SOL ecosystem hits new highs, yet the candlesticks dampen enthusiasm. Is this a shakeout or a cycle reversal?
$BTC: The critical 76,000 lifeline
Currently at $77,536, slightly down 0.16%. In parallel, four days ago, the US BTC ETF recorded a record net outflow of $643 million. Institutional defensive selling creates tension with the short-term cost line at 76,000. If $77,400 cannot be reclaimed, the lower support will face severe tests.
$ETH: Price floor, capital ceiling
At $2,292, slightly down 0.27%, the ETH/BTC rate hits a three-month low. In parallel, the US ETH ETF saw a monthly outflow of $1.61 billion, but 1.37 million ETH are queued on-chain for staking over 24 days. Traditional funds withdraw, on-chain capital locks up, causing extreme supply-demand mismatch.
$SOL: The brave in the oversold zone
At $93.26, slightly down 0.47%, daily RSI enters oversold territory. In parallel, its on-chain stablecoin market cap breaks $15 billion, a historic high. But SOL ETF has had outflows for four consecutive weeks, with ecosystem improvements and short-term selling pressure fiercely tugging.
The market is in a "bottoming phase of fundamental and capital divergence." As sentiment recedes, value troughs will emerge. Interaction: Will you hold the $76,000 BTC line or bet on a rebound with oversold SOL?
#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 🔥Attention! The Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle and the historical trend of $BTC hide a cycle pattern worth noting.
Reviewing the bottoming trends at the end of three rate hike cycles:
📍2014 rate hike cycle: bottomed about 65 days after policy implementation, low at $165
📍2018 rate hike cycle: bottomed about 34 days after policy implementation, low at $3150
📍2022 rate hike cycle: bottomed about 11 days after policy implementation, low at $15600
Starting from these lows, the subsequent bull market gains were:
🚀$165 → $19800, over 100 times
🚀$3150 → $63700, nearly 20 times
🚀$15600 → $124000, about 8 times
An interesting detail:
After the rate hike implementation, the market's time to find a bottom gets shorter and shorter: 65 days, 34 days, 11 days.
History tells us that the panic tail of liquidity tightening often breeds a new big market move.
This round, will $BTC replicate this cycle script again? 👀
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期
#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Everyone is waiting for BTC to bottom AFTER midterms like 2018 & 2022.
But look: This cycle -23% vs -80%+ before.
Community view says pre-election bottom may form. I agree.
If you’re waiting for a bigger dip, you’ll miss it.
Are we already at the bottom? 👇
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook Binance recovered 70% of the stolen assets, and CORE hard fork did something
Recovered 68.14 million CORE from three attack addresses, accounting for 70% of the total affected amount. No transaction rollback, no token minting, no change to total supply. The recovered tokens have not yet been allocated, and the compensation process has not been released, but technically it at least proves that on-chain asset recovery is feasible. This case is a valuable reference for handling exchange security incidents.History says $BTC bottoms AFTER midterms.
2014: -58%
2018: -84%
2022: -77%
2026: -23% so far.
This is NOT the same drawdown. Weak hands already flushed.
My take: The bottom is IN, pre-election. The midterm dip everyone is waiting for? Already happened.
You still waiting for $70k or you buying fear?
$BTC
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook 🚨 THE CRYPTO MARKET IS UNDER PRESSURE — AND THE NEXT MOVE COULD GET WILD!
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Zcash are facing fresh selling pressure as ETF outflows and shifting liquidity keep traders on edge.
📉 Key Market Levels:
🟠 BTC: Short zone at $77.7K–$78.1K
SL: $78.6K | Targets: $76.5K → $75.8K
🔵 ETH: $2,305 is the key support to watch.
SL: $2,345 | Targets: $2,230 → $2,200
💎 ZEC: Down 7.4%, breaking below EMA20 and EMA50.
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook #BTC #Trading
#DailyOrbit 6.3 Billion Hacker Mystery and Midterm Election Day: The Major "Trust Discount" Shakeup for BTC, ETH, and OKB
On November 3rd, Midterm Election Day, the crypto market lacked directional catalysts. Instead, under the dual shadows of Binance's $6.3 billion hack (with $3.24 billion still in hacker wallets) and the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, the market showed a fragile "localized recovery."
$BTC closed at 77,522 (+0.95%). As the most defensive in the eye of the storm, it only fell 7.8% in October, but ETFs saw a single-day outflow of 643 million, with the 80,000 resistance level holding firm and lacking independent upward momentum.
$ETH closed at 2,291 (+1.71%). Leading in gains but fragile, a large amount of ETH in hacker wallets creates implicit supply pressure, compounded by six consecutive days of ETF outflows, causing a serious disconnect between price and capital.
$OKB closed at 108.56 (-0.69%). The only one with negative gains, reflecting real changes: Binance outflowed 7 billion, while OKX led inflows against the trend with 445 million. The slight decline indicates capital movement leading price, with the market showing a lag in pricing the "trust premium."
Summary: The three form a "defense-fragile-beneficiary" spectrum. The current core contradiction is the repricing of the "trust discount," with the Fed's balance sheet expansion so far only causing a frictional rebound. Keep a close watch on BTC's range-bound oscillation and ETH's hacker-related anomalies.
#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 🔥 Attention! There might be an interesting pattern between the US midterm elections and the historical trend of $BTC.
Looking back at the performance after the last three midterm elections:
📍2014: Bottomed about 71 days later, price around $170.
📍2018: Bottomed about 39 days later, price around $3,200.
📍2022: Bottomed about 13 days later, price around $15,500.
From these lows, the subsequent gains were:
🚀 $170 → $20,000, over 100 times
🚀 $3,200 → $64,000, about 20 times
🚀 $15,500 → $126,000, about 8 times
An interesting detail: the time to bottom shortened each time, being 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days respectively.
Historically, the most panic in the market often also breeds the opportunity for the next cycle.
Will $BTC repeat this pattern this time? 👀Why was Binance hacked, but the ones that died were other small and medium exchanges?"Unlocking the calendar is not a sell button"
$ENA and $HYPE were consecutively flagged by third-party calendars, tightening market sentiment initially. But "unlocking" is merely a supply observation, not a sell signal. There is a gap between quota, arrival, and placing sell orders involving execution and motivation; a single screenshot cannot determine a short position.
For ENA, the initial rule is that core contributors hold 30%, locked for one year and vested monthly; the platform has differences in batch criteria, and November 5 is just an observation point. More attention should be paid to actual on-chain transfers, net inflows on exchanges, and whether the USDe scale remains stable. Having real product demand does not mean new chips will be automatically absorbed.
For HYPE, the official confirmation is that the team has no external financing, and the token still carries staking functions; staking to spot usually takes 7 days. Third parties list November 6 as the team allocation observation day, but the estimated upper limit is not a confirmed sell volume. The focus is on the real distribution of team addresses, spot market depth, and whether the buy orders formed by protocol fees can absorb the supply.
I will not blindly short just because of "unlocking," nor will I ignore supply because the project is strong. Are you more worried about the new chips themselves, or that no one will take the other side? #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 It's 5:30 PM, just about to pack up and get off work. I switched back to the market screen and wow, the main force is harvesting so thoroughly, they don't even plan to leave a root. All the leverage below is lining up to be sacrificed.
First, look at $DOGE, current price 0.074. The 4-hour long-short ratio has shot up to an outrageous 5.23. Despite the drop, there's a whole bunch of bulls stubbornly holding on below. The leverage is stacked like a fortress. The main force must be grinning at this data. Without a big bearish candle to completely wipe out this group, there's no way to pump the price.
Next, $SUI, current price 0.87, is steadily declining with no sign of stabilization. But the long-short ratio stubbornly stays at 2.8. Retail investors keep buying more as it falls, the old bad habit unchanged. The open interest remains high. This is clearly like boiling a frog slowly, grinding down the bottom-fishing leverage bit by bit. Don't catch the falling knife.
Finally, $PEPE, current price 0.0000047, is the harshest. The funding rate has directly dropped to negative 0.15%. Bulls have been tormented into submission and are now paying to beg for mercy. The long-short ratio has fallen from the morning's high, indicating many can't hold on and are cutting losses. When panic selling hits, there might be a short-term rebound, but the overall trend remains weak.
In summary, until the main force is full, any rebound is a bull trap. Control your hands, don't use real money as cannon fodder.
How are your positions? Have you cut losses and fled, or are you planning to hold on to the end?
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 #Circle's financial report is about to be released, will the growth of stablecoins translate into profits? Devcon 8 opens today in Mumbai, Nov 3-6 at Jio World Centre — 300+ speakers including Vitalik, and the big one for me is tomorrow's Nov 4 debate on $ETH issuance (EIP-8363). No Glamsterdam mainnet date yet, so I won't trade the hype. $ETH is $2,285 — my line is $2,200 support, $2,300 to flip bullish. Do you think Devcon moves ETH this week? #Ethereum #Devcon$ETH $BTC Midterm Election Timeline
House of Representatives: Basically determined around noon Beijing time on November 4, with an error margin of no more than one day.
Senate: If North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas are clear that night, conclusions will be available by the afternoon of November 4; if it depends on Pennsylvania or Maine, wait until November 5–6; if it depends on Alaska or triggers a runoff, it will be delayed until mid-November or even early December.
Official certification (state certify results) is separate and usually takes 2–5 weeks, but that does not affect market judgment. Therefore, for the market, the real risk window is the gap period of "Senate undecided" from the afternoon of November 4 Beijing time until before the non-farm payroll release on November 6.$WLFI
Sun Yuchen went to court again, but this time the dispute isn't about the coin, it's about the shareholders' nationalities.
Someone in the group saw "motion to sanction WLFI" and shouted that the market would turn. Let me pour some cold water on that; this motion doesn't mention price at all.
The matter itself is simple: his lawyer submitted a sanction motion yesterday, claiming World Liberty reported shareholder identities late. Initially, only Florida was listed, but after months of litigation, 22 entities were added, including Florida, Delaware, Puerto Rico, and the UAE. Nationality is not a trivial matter in the U.S. federal court; it determines whether the case can proceed.
So this move shifts the battlefield from smart contracts to procedural grounds. The frozen amount is still those 4 billion tokens, bought for $45 million, currently valued at over $200 million at 0.0513 each on the books, but not a single token can be withdrawn. The more impressive the numbers, the more it shows he wants unlocking, not market movement.
The market indeed hasn't taken it seriously. Last night at 8 PM, it surged to 0.05213, then fell back to 0.0513 within two hours, rising less than 3% in 24 hours, with contract positions only at $6.9 million. What really prices it is whether those 4 billion tokens will be dumped all at once someday. As for when—I don't know, nor do I intend to guess.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $SNDK
SanDisk surged to 1153 then dropped back to 1117, the contract here finished early
The semiconductor sector is really strong at the US market open. SanDisk closed at 1075 previously, hit a high of 1153 intraday, up 7% at one point, now back to 1117, still holding 3.9%.
But OKX's SNDK contract finished at the 10 o'clock hourly candle. Volume spiked to 205,000 contracts touching 1155.8, slightly higher than the underlying stock; two hours later at 1119, volume dropped to only 27,000 contracts, down 80%.
Open interest tells more. At 20:00 it was still increasing, up 5.3% in one hour to 128 million; at 22:00 during the spike it directly decreased 4.9%, now 119 million. The spike was from reducing positions, not new longs. Funding rate is 0.0023%, longs aren't even willing to pay a premium.
I believe in this semiconductor recovery, but tokenized stocks have an old problem: the underlying stock closes but the token keeps moving, and after US market hours late at night it’s easiest to get exaggerated moves. This upper shadow tonight, judging by turnover, I don’t consider it a breakout.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 🚨 Don't rush to bottom-fish! $SNDK might not have finished falling yet; the real risk could still be ahead!📉
After last night's opening of the US stock market, it plunged all the way down. Many people's first reaction might be: the opportunity has come, time to bottom-fish!
But I don't think so right now.
Market weakness has spread across multiple sectors. The US dollar continues to weaken, crude oil is down, and even gold hasn't provided enough safe-haven support. In comparison, mainstream US stocks and $ETH have fallen more sharply.
What really worries me is that the market currently lacks enough buying support. Panic sentiment keeps rising, and institutions seem to be reducing their risk exposure. If selling pressure continues to increase, it will be hard to find enough funds to catch the fall.
Less than 24 hours remain until the US election results are announced. In such a highly uncertain environment, off-market funds will likely be more cautious and unwilling to take risks easily.
My current approach remains primarily short-selling; I'm not in a hurry to bottom-fish.
Remember: a market decline doesn't mean the opportunity has arrived. Sometimes preserving capital is more important than rushing to catch the bottom!
#SNDK #ETH #USStocks #CryptoMarket #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy
#DailyOrbit AMD hasn't released its earnings report yet, but its stock price has already dropped 19%. It closed at 466.84 on Monday, losing twice as much in three trading days as the 9% drop predicted by options expiring on Wednesday. Moreover, most of this 19% drop isn't due to AMD itself, but because Intel gave a poor guidance. Intel's Q4 revenue guidance after market close on October 29 was $15 billion to $16 billion, while Wall Street estimated around $17 billion. Intel also said the PC market will remain weak until the first half of next year, with shipments down 12% this year and another 10% next year. Intel's stock fell 28.6% the next day and 37% over three days. AMD, which also makes PC CPUs, dropped 10.9% on Friday and another 7.5% on Monday, totaling a 17.6% decline in two days. Meanwhile, Nvidia only fell 6% over the same three days, and the semiconductor ETF SMH dropped about 10%. Actually, PC chips are no longer a major part of AMD's business. Last quarter, it generated $11.5 billion in revenue, with data centers accounting for 58%, and PC chips just a bit over a quarter. This time, Intel is struggling to produce enough server CPUs. Cantor analyst said Intel is clearly losing server market share to AMD. Morgan Stanley also said on Monday that AMD's server CPUs are strong enough to at least offset the drag from the PC segment. Lisa Su mentioned in the August earnings call that memory and component prices are rising, and she has already planned based on a weak PC market. After the numbers come out$NIGHT
Control situation: The top 100 on-chain addresses control over 98%, with retail circulation only about 5%. The project parties (two major entities) collectively hold more than 50% of the tokens with no lock-up restrictions, maintaining absolute control. Coupled with the selling pressure left by the historically stolen cross-chain bridge, the chip structure is extremely fragile.
Price point analysis: The current price is about $0.0427. Resistance is in the 0.043-0.044 range (recent high near 0.043159); only a volume-backed close above 0.044 can open upward space; support is first seen at 0.040-0.041 (near EMA20/50), with strong support at 0.039 (previous low 0.039522). The 15-minute chart shows MACD volume contraction and RSI falling to around 65, indicating short-term momentum weakening and a need for a pullback.
Trend judgment: In the short term, it is highly likely to surge and then fall below 0.044, testing lower support; in the mid-term, as long as the control structure remains unchanged, any rally is more of an "emotional pulse" rather than a reversal, with heavy overhead resistance and high risk in chasing highs. In terms of operation, short positions near resistance require strict stop-loss to prevent a short squeeze; if volume breaks through 0.044, reassess again. 🚨 BITCOIN CONFIRMS BREAKDOWN ON THE MONTHLY CHART
$BTC closed the candle below last month's bottom, wiping out the September uptrend. The FVG zone around 75,000 dollars is becoming the focal point.
Scenario:
- 75,000 dollars → important FVG zone
- 70,000–72,000 dollars → deep liquidity sweep
- Reclaim structure → start recovery
- Break above 87,000 dollars → strengthen uptrend
- Next target → 96,000 dollars
If BTC holds the FVG after the sweep, the recovery potential will be reinforced.🔥Midterm Election Storm Approaching
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The midterm election market is expected to drop again,
but it won't fall too much.
After this event passes,
the market will start to bottom out.
The bottom of the past three Bitcoin cycles
all appeared after the US midterm elections:
2014: 71 days after the election
2018: 39 days after the election
2022: 13 days after the election
If this pattern repeats,
the end of 2026 to early 2027
could be the time window for Bitcoin's next cycle bottom.
If you find this review useful, please give a like!
Press 1 if it drops first then bottoms out, press 2 if it reverses directly.
This is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ SanDisk is more than 10% below the long-term average price, and HYPE is also shrinking in scale
$HYPE 82.95, down 6.0% in the past 24 hours, contract open interest decreased, and price is also weak 🪁
During a completed 12-hour period of the corresponding contract, open interest fell by 1.3%, contract price dropped 3.5%, both open interest and price are contracting.
Scale has shrunk, but price pressure has not disappeared; spot price is also near the low of 82.59, recovery position remains low.
I am cautious; a rebound requires position improvement and cannot interpret the reduction in contract open interest directly as the selling pressure having ended.
$SNDK 1089.12, down 8.7% in the past 24 hours, the gap with the long-term average price is larger than the daily drop 💾
SanDisk's 20-day closing average price is about 1275.52, quoted about 14.6% lower, the long-term gap remains large, 1100 has not yet been reclaimed.
This gap has accumulated over multiple trading days; one or two upticks do not necessarily mean the recovery is complete, short-term rebounds do not equal longer-term recovery.
I see this as a partial rebound during adjustment; the longer-term area has not been recovered, evaluation should not be based solely on rebound speed.
$NEAR 3.808, down 11.8% in the past 24 hours, heavy decline, trading has not calmed down 🌱
In the past two full hours, it dropped 1.6%, trading volume increased by 87.6% compared to the previous two hours, the decline corresponds to active expansion, trading has not decreased.
The quote of 3.808 is only about 0.5% higher than the low of 3.79, the rebound is still at a low level, around 4 has not been reclaimed.
This performance is weak, activity needs to be seen in which direction it falls, more trading does not automatically bring a higher position.$XTZ offers an example of blockchain governance designed to support protocol evolution over time. Upgrades can improve performance and introduce new capabilities, but their impact depends on developer adoption and practical use. Governance participation, application growth, network activity, and the quality of implementation deserve attention.#AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 Currently, AMD is priced with extremely high expectations, with a forward P/E ratio as high as 144 times, and the options market implies a single-day volatility ranging from 8.95% to 10.85%. If the Q4 revenue guidance (consensus around $16.29 billion) fails to meet aggressive investor expectations, it is very likely to repeat last quarter's scenario of "earnings beating expectations but still plunging after hours." The odds of beating expectations remain very high, but the stock price is unlikely to escape a post-market plunge Evening session on 11.03: Triple negative factors resonate, rebound is a short opportunity!
Currently, the market is steadily declining. $BTC is priced at 76410, the weekend rebound to 78831 was brutally rejected, with both 1-hour and 15-minute moving averages in a full bearish alignment. The 78000-78800 range above feels like a heavy mountain pressing down. $ETH is at 2242, having plunged nearly 17% in 30 days, weaker than BTC.
Looking at liquidation data, it's a battlefield. The dense liquidation zone above BTC at 76966 is the first critical resistance for a rebound; ETH faces even tighter suppression above 2289. The most dangerous is that the current price is close to the liquidation zone below; once it breaks effectively, a chain reaction of liquidations will trigger an accelerated decline instantly.
The news side brings a "triple kill" resonance:
1. Big players exit: Arthur Hayes clearly stated he has sold $22.28 million in crypto assets and is now watching from the sidelines.
2. Institutional retreat: ETF net outflow on October 30 reached $643 million, the largest since June.
3. Macro risk aversion: AI tech stocks are weak, compounded by geopolitical risks in Iran, severely suppressing risk appetite.
Large capital bearishness + institutional withdrawal + macro suppression leave bulls powerless.
Trading strategy (firmly short on rebounds):
BTC: Short in batches on rebounds between 76800-77300, stop loss above 77600, target first at 75800, break below targets 74708
ETH: Short in batches on rebounds between 2260-2290, stop loss above 2310, target at 2220, break below targets 2180 $ENA is linked to Ethena's synthetic dollar ecosystem, which uses crypto-market mechanisms rather than conventional bank deposits alone. Its model requires careful assessment of funding rates, collateral, liquidity, and counterparty exposure. Understanding how the system behaves during stressed markets is more useful than judging it solely by yield opportunities.$BTC $ETH $SOL
Multiple on-chain data indicate that recently, the holdings of long-term BTC holders have been continuously rising, with circulating chips on the market steadily consolidating and selling pressure steadily decreasing. Under the uncertainty of the election, short-term speculative funds have exited, while institutional funds with a long-term perspective continue to accumulate at low levels, continuously strengthening the bottom support of the market.
From a historical cycle perspective, the stage of high chip lock-up is often the accumulation phase for a new major market rally. In the short term, market fluctuations are limited due to macro sentiment disturbances, but the support below is extremely solid, systemic crash risk is very low, and the market is waiting for the macro benefits catalyzed by the US election to trigger a new round of upward recovery.U.S. Midterm Elections + Nonfarm Payrolls
$BTC +$ETH Market Trends
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Two major macro events resonating will dominate the subsequent trends of BTC and ETH. Different midterm election outcomes will directly change the U.S. Treasury and dollar liquidity environment, indirectly affecting the crypto space.
If the Republicans take both chambers, fiscal expansion expectations will push up U.S. Treasury yields and strengthen the dollar, putting pressure on BTC and ETH; if the Democrats control both chambers, fiscal constraints will apply, U.S. Treasury yields will decline, benefiting crypto assets. The market is most likely to see a divided government, with both parties checking each other, making major policy changes unlikely, leading to wide-range market fluctuations. If the election results are disputed, risk-off sentiment will surge, causing crypto prices to quickly plunge.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Overlaying the October nonfarm preview: stronger-than-expected employment data will reinforce December rate hike expectations, tightening liquidity and suppressing Bitcoin and Ethereum; weaker-than-expected employment will cool rate hike expectations, creating rebound opportunities.
BTC and ETH are highly sensitive to U.S. Treasury yields. Before these events unfold, avoid heavy one-sided bets, prioritize observing U.S. Treasury and dollar signals. Under a divided government scenario, volatility will intensify; high leverage must be risk-controlled, waiting for clear signals before positioning accordingly.
$BTC $JUP is associated with Jupiter's trading ecosystem on Solana, where efficient token discovery and execution are important to users. A competitive interface can attract traders, but retaining them requires reliable routing, liquidity, and useful features. Platform activity does not automatically translate into proportional economic value for token holders.Let me make one thing clear early in the morning: the second phase of asset-by-asset release by Mouan does NOT mean the market has warmed up. The release means assets are being checked one by one; the withdrawal channels have loosened, but that doesn't mean the buyers have returned. Don't equate these two things.
The evidence from the market is actually the opposite: in 24 hours, BTC positions dropped 0.95%, ETH dropped 2.14%, SOL dropped 0.56%, ZEC dropped 4.63%; none of the four coins' positions went up. In 1 hour, only BTC rose 0.13%, ZEC rose 1.35%, while ETH and SOL continued to fall. The slight uptick can't even cover the gap for a whole day.
What’s even more painful is the cost basis of positions: BTC is still holding at 0.0102%, ETH at 0.0081%, SOL at 0.0075%, ZEC loosened to 0.0033%. Long positions are still paying to hold, but positions are getting lighter day by day. The number of people paying to stay is decreasing, not increasing.
So my direct judgment: the release is just the channel reopening; position recovery is the real signal. The data on position vacancies overnight is already behind us; the market has digested a wave, and I don’t take it as directional evidence. Those who rushed in chasing the release news are betting that the channel equals sentiment, but the reality is positions are still going down. The channel loosened, but positions haven’t returned. Before positions stop falling within 24 hours, don’t rush to read the release as positive news, and don’t chase the uptick to add positions. Wait for positions to stabilize first, then talk about direction. Which coin’s position do you think will stop falling first? 👀#Circle財報在即，穩定幣成長能否轉化為收益？ From the current market expectations, Circle's upcoming earnings report is likely to barely meet revenue expectations, but exceeding them won't be easy. Although the overall scale and on-chain activity of USDC have continued to grow, the decline in reserve yields caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has been eroding their profit margins. Coupled with a recent miss last quarter, the market remains cautious about its profitability performance. The key will be whether USDC's growth rate can offset the impact of falling interest rates. A simple trap set by the manipulator scared a bunch of retail investors.
Brothers, tonight's rebound—how many of you are shouting that the reversal is here, that the bull market is about to start again?
Look closely, $ETH only touched 2308 at the highest before immediately softening, not even breaking through the dense moving average resistance above.
Looking further down at the bottom volume, this rebound has no capital follow-through at all; it's all shorts taking profits and retail investors chasing longs creating a false illusion.
This is a classic case of "low-volume bull trap."
Why do many brothers panic as soon as they see a rise?
Because they are fully invested, heavily leveraged, or even close to forced liquidation prices.
But in trading, you focus on the bigger trend and risk-reward ratio.
Look at my short position at 2671, the profit has already been securely taken at 1438%.
The major downtrend structure hasn't changed at all; the highs have dropped step by step from 2579 to 2538, then to tonight's 2308.
The next plan remains clear: once this wave of emotion is vented, as long as the rebound can't push through the 2300 - 2310 resistance zone, it's an excellent shorting opportunity.
Looking further down, once it breaks below the 2236 consolidation low, it will most likely test the previous low at 2174 directly.
Don't be scared by the manipulator's little tricks, recognize the big trend, hold your bottom chips firmly, this meat is ours to eat.
$BTC
$ZEC
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 🔥 TRENDING ON OKX TONIGHT — Fearful, But Dip-Buying!
Mood: Fear & Greed 26 = fear. Yet $BTC holds its key level + traders keep buying dips. That's not panic, that's positioning.
Trending:
$BTC/USDT $77,641.20 +0.16% — holding
$ETH/USDT $2,298.49 +1.09% — leading
$OKB/USDT $109.01 -2.38% — cooling
Educational: In fear, smart money watches flow, not feelings. Capital rotating toward OKX = liquidity + confidence.
Watch $BTC hold, $ETH follow-through. Risk: fear can flip fast, size small.Circle's earnings per share this quarter, I expect to be above 0.38. What makes me think this is not what Circle itself said, but Coinbase's Q3 report released last Thursday. Circle's money mainly comes from the interest earned on the hundreds of billions of dollars in USDC reserves invested in government bonds. However, a large portion of this interest has to be shared, with Coinbase receiving the largest share. In Q2, Coinbase took nearly 80% of Circle's total distribution costs. On page 36 of Coinbase's Q3 report, this is clearly detailed. Coinbase reported that the average market value of USDC in Q3 was about $73 billion, down about 5% from $77 billion in Q2. The money Coinbase received from USDC was $328 million, only $8 million more than in Q2. This amount is basically the share Circle pays to Coinbase. Based on Circle's full-year guidance given in August, the proportion shared in the second half of the year is expected to increase significantly, causing a drop in profit margin. According to Coinbase's figures, the drop in Q3 was not that much. Additionally, Coinbase has over $100 million in coins on its books, all accounted for at market value. In Q3, HYPE, Bitcoin, and Ethereum rose between 40% and 70%, but the largest holding, Canton Coin, fell about 10%. Roughly calculated together, there was a gain of over $10 million. TwoWhether the rebound can continue now seems more driven by news; looking at the K-line alone is not enough (｡･ω･｡)
With the US midterm election results window approaching, the composition of Congress affects crypto regulation, fiscal spending, and risk appetite; tonight's JOLTS and Friday's nonfarm payrolls combined with December rate hike expectations may increase macro volatility.
BTC spot ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $643 million, institutions are still reducing risk; BTC is relatively resilient, but funds have not continuously flowed back, which only indicates strong support but no confirmed reversal yet.
ETH spot ETF had a single-day net outflow of $156 million, totaling about $1.61 billion over the past 30 days, showing the most significant mid-term capital pressure; contract sentiment is bearish, but if BTC stabilizes, ETH might trigger short covering (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
SOL spot ETF had a single-day net outflow of $10.74 million, about $144 million over the past 30 days; the team advises validators to guard against a Linux kernel vulnerability, with no evidence of breach and not a Solana code issue, but short-term sentiment is disturbed.
From another perspective, BTC is relatively stable, ETH offers a recovery-driven short-covering opportunity, and SOL is the most aggressive with the lowest tolerance 😊
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 🚨 If Bitcoin drops to $74,700, I might really take action! 👀
Having observed BTC for so many years, I've gradually found that the 120-day moving average on the daily chart is often an important support area worth watching.
If $BTC falls back to around $74,700, I will definitely seriously consider going long. After all, there aren't many obvious support levels nearby right now, so this position deserves close attention.
Shorting BTC might seem like the trend, but I personally remain cautious. For retail investors, shorting can sometimes become a trap, and if the market suddenly rebounds, the risk can quickly escalate.
From here on, it's best to proceed carefully. Managing leverage well, practicing good risk management, and avoiding blindly chasing highs or selling lows are the keys to long-term survival.
If BTC really drops to $74,700, would you choose to buy the dip and go long, or continue waiting for confirmation? 👀
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #BitcoinTrading #美国中期选举
#DailyOrbit When others panic, Strategy keeps accumulating! $BTC
Strategy purchased another 811 BTC between October 26 and November 1 at an average price of $80,800. Its total holdings have now reached 849,327 BTC, acquired at an average cost of around $75,500.
Despite market uncertainty, the company continues its long-term Bitcoin accumulation, backed by approximately $4.9B in cash reserves. 💰
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook $CL
Recent crude oil plunge is mainly due to the concentrated squeeze-out of geopolitical risk premium.
With the US and Iran simultaneously signaling easing through negotiations, market bets on a supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have quickly cooled, leading bulls to exit en masse; combined with limited OPEC+ production cut constraints, increased Middle East exports, and downward revisions in demand expectations, the weak fundamentals have been exposed, and programmatic selling has amplified the decline.
There is significant divergence in the outlook. Bears believe that after the geopolitical logic is disproven, oil prices will return to fundamentals with further downside potential; supporters emphasize low inventories, insufficient supply elasticity, and OPEC+ support, with Goldman Sachs even raising oil price forecasts.
Currently, a short-term phase of high-level wide-range oscillation and increased volatility is more likely: after the geopolitical premium is given back, a new fundamental anchor needs to be found, but conditions for a sustained deep decline are insufficient; if negotiations stall or conflicts reignite, a rapid rebound could be triggered. The probability of a smooth one-way decline is limited, so key focus remains on US-Iran negotiation progress and on-site Middle East frictions.
#伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？ #加密行业协同守护资产安全 The heat remains, but the 24-hour volatility continues to compress?
DOGE is stuck at 0.0733, community narratives persist, but the 0.070 defense line shows no capital support signal.
ETH has dropped to 2240, the 2300 resistance has not been absorbed, and the linked volatility is weak.
The December rate hike expectation remains undecided, making this time window prone to locking volatility.
Volatility contraction will not last forever; the non-farm payroll release will trigger its expansion again.
Open your position list and check if your stop-loss can withstand the impact after volatility rises.
Focus on the 77000 level today.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE The altcoins are moving in tandem with Bitcoin, both weakening with synchronized fluctuations. After a short-term upward test, pressure caused a pullback. The resistance above is obvious, and there is a lack of sustained upward momentum after the rally. The market is tugging back and forth between bulls and bears; do not blindly chase longs. Wait for the rebound to reach the resistance zone before following the trend to look for a pullback.
Trading advice
Rebound pressure is expected in the 2295-2310 range; follow the trend to set up shorts, with targets initially at 2270-2250. If broken, continue to look down toward around 2230. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC $ETH Toncoin ($TON)
📱 Messaging platforms and blockchain technology could create new ways for people to access digital services. Toncoin is connected to an ecosystem with a strong focus on Telegram-related applications. The challenge is turning a large potential audience into active blockchain users. Could messaging apps become the easiest gateway into crypto?BTC is currently at 77379.9, with MA20 at 80260.1.
Pressure hasn't broken; it's too early to talk about a reversal.
Strategy bought 811 BTC for 65.5 million USD, then used 208 million USD to repurchase preferred shares.
Where the money comes from and where it goes is very clear.
The treasury strategy has already split.
Strive increased holdings by 124 BTC, backed by 15% annualized SATS preferred share financing.
BitMine acquired 8573 ETH, bringing holdings to 6.06 million.
Metaplanet repaid 50.64 million USD debt, raising the coin purchase budget to 212 million.
Some are borrowing to expand the balance sheet, others are reducing burdens first.
They are not collectively pushing the market up; each is making their own allocation.
ETH is now down -0.52%, BTC down -0.37%.
Ethereum is weaker, and this is no coincidence.
Institutions are accumulating, but the market may not follow the rise.
When BTC turns, ETH usually crashes first; when BTC rebounds, ETH mostly follows.
It currently has no independent mainline, only dependency. $BTC $ETH #Strategy回购规模超购币三倍，财库策略转向？ The strength or weakness of the $BTC US dollar is the core anchor affecting BTC's medium- to long-term trend, and this US election will directly determine the future tone of US dollar monetary policy. If subsequent loose fiscal policies are implemented, it will likely suppress the US dollar index, benefiting BTC and other non-US scarce assets to rise; if it leans toward tightening regulation, it will temporarily suppress risk asset valuations.
Currently, the market is in an expectation game phase, with small fluctuations in the US dollar index driving BTC to oscillate back and forth, and the market's ups and downs completely follow macro sentiment. Compared to short-term fluctuations, more attention should be paid to the policy $ implementation pace after the election, which will determine BTC's overall trend direction in the fourth quarter. $ZEC $SOL CoinMarketCap's report says Bitcoin open interest contracts have dropped to a 12-month low of $284.1 billion
It sounds like the market has lightened up, but the remaining batch of longs are still paying an extremely expensive "toll" — the funding rate remains stuck at a 90-day high (about 0.93 basis points), even higher than the previous week
The total leverage has decreased, but the remaining position costs have become more expensive, and as soon as some fall, others immediately fill in
Spot $BTC ETFs have seen outflows of $859 million over nearly 6 trading days, with BlackRock's IBIT alone experiencing 10 consecutive days of outflows, totaling over $2.24 billion
However, whales are adding positions against the trend, with total holdings rising to 3.03 million coins, the fastest pace since February this year
The most critical level now is $76,000
This is the average cost line for short-term holders, whose unrealized gains are currently only about 2%. If these holders shift from slight profits to losses, it could easily trigger sell-offs
As long as the $76,000 barrier is not broken, the market will continue to grind within this narrow range; once broken, the next deep support zone is between $73,000 and $74,000
$BTC #BTC range consolidationSei ($SEI)
⚡ Trading-focused blockchain infrastructure is an interesting niche in the crypto market. Sei has been designed around performance and applications that need fast execution. Its long-term opportunity depends on active users and sustainable applications. Would you choose a specialized trading chain over a general-purpose blockchain?Staring at the K-line for half a day is not as useful as looking at today's news mentioning the "NU7 developer controversy".
This is the real reason behind ZEC's sharp drop.
Technical breakdowns can be charted, but a fundamental trust crisis is fatal.
The community is bickering over the developers' interests, and big investors seeing this kind of news react by retreating without regard to cost.
Look at the market: the price has plunged directly from the high of 1398 to 1195, with the moving averages above pressing down hard. Every very slight rebound is just supplying bullets to the bears.
Currently, 65% of the market is shorting, which shows that the smart money has long understood this game and is following the trend to push the price down.
The current 1195 is definitely not the bottom, just a resting point in the downtrend.
As long as it dares to weakly rebound, that will be our best opportunity to enter a high short position.
Face reality and don't fight the trend.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？