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The midterm elections are expected to cause another dip in the market, but it won't fall too much. After this event passes, the market will start to form a bottom.
In the past three Bitcoin cycles, the bottom appeared after the US midterm elections: 71 days after in 2014, 39 days after in 2018, and 13 days after in 2022.
If this pattern repeats, the time window for Bitcoin's next cycle bottom could be from the end of 2026 to early 2027.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC The five layers of CORE dissection: Security, Narrative, Revenue, Inflation, Liquidity — which layer can still be saved?
As of November 3, 2026, CORE is priced at about $0.012, down approximately 29% over 7 days, with a 24-hour trading volume of only about $3.09 million, and a circulating market cap of about $12.48 million, down over 99% from its all-time high. Layer 1: Security, the most critical. In September, a validator over-claimed tokens due to a bug and did not roll back the ledger; at the end of October, the b14g protocol was attacked, affecting about 97 million CORE tokens. On November 3, a hard fork recovered about 68.15 million tokens, but they have not yet been allocated to affected users, and funds frozen by exchanges have not been returned. Layer 2: Narrative, fading. The premise of BTCFi is "Bitcoin assets securely on-chain." After two security incidents, competitors like sBTC and Stacks continue to vie for the same narrative, and CORE's differentiated moat has clearly thinned. Layer 3: Revenue, too small in scale. The 2026 economic model has shifted to using BTCFi's real revenue to buy back and burn CORE, but protocol income still struggles to offset long-term unlocking pressure. Layer 4: Inflation, capped but long-term. Total supply is 2.1 billion tokens, with about 48% circulating. Mining rewards decay annually and will be released over 81 years, so supply pressure is far from over. Layer 5: Liquidity, the most fragile. Trading volume is only about $3.09 million; a small number of sell orders can trigger a sharp drop, and rebounds lack support. Among the five layers, the security layer must be fixed first. If the b14g recovered tokens cannot be clearly allocated, buybacks and burns cannot outpace unlocking, and TVL cannot rebound,Trump just stated that greater benefits should be gained from Iran than from Venezuela. It looks like he's asking for too much again. You say you want to negotiate properly, but you're the one who repeatedly flips the table! With the current oil prices and inflation, most of the responsibility falls on him, not to mention the $TRUMP coin he specifically uses to cash out! After these remarks tonight, the crypto market started to decline again. No matter how we analyze technical indicators, the rise and fall depend on his words. The market now is truly hellishly difficult!
$BTC $ETH
#伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？ Tonight, I still lean towards the bulls for the following reasons: The midterm elections, Yellow Hair (Trump) must have done his groundwork beforehand. If both chambers are lost, there's a high probability he will be impeached and lose the next presidential position. What does that mean? Previously, Trump amassed wealth extensively through his position, and after impeachment, he will definitely face military court with the risk of imprisonment.
As an extreme businessman president, Trump surely considered this aspect, so tonight the control of one chamber will definitely be secured 100%. Whether both chambers can be taken depends on the subsequent results. As long as Yellow Hair doesn't fall, it will definitely be positive for the crypto space. Brothers wanting to trade tonight can enter longs on Bitcoin at 765-770, set stop loss at 757, with targets at 785 and 795. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Today the index is green, but the market underneath is bustling.
A-shares solid-state batteries suddenly exploded, Shangshui Intelligent surged 20cm directly, Longpan and Fengyuan hit the daily limit one after another and followed with limit-ups.
On the other side, AI comics and short dramas continue to go crazy, Wentou Holdings hit 6 limit-ups in 10 days, Zhangyue 3 limit-ups in 5 days, with funds crowding in.
But computing power hardware collectively fell flat, Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communications are both dropping, and the STAR 50 index fell 2.54% at midday.
The index falls, themes fly, money is picking where to go.
US stocks are even more twisted pre-market, storage chips collectively rebound, SanDisk and Micron rise over 3%, but Apple dropped more than 4 points pre-market due to memory cost pressure.
In the same sector, upstream is profiting, downstream is getting hit, the split is quite obvious.
Crypto is still the same dead scene, $BTC is grinding around 77000, $ETH stuck around 2250, fear index dropped to 33.
ETFs keep pulling money out, BlackRock alone withdrew over 500 million in one day, but whale holdings surged to 3.03 million coins, the fastest accumulation speed since February this year.
Institutions are selling, big players are buying, the direction is still
not clear.
In this market, not afraid of the index falling, afraid of stepping on the wrong side. I have a basic signal when watching the market: when retail investors overwhelmingly call for a long, that's when the market is about to reverse. This signal lit up again tonight.
First, look at the number of people. The retail long-short ratio on the BTC market is 2.64, while the number of large holders is only 0.52. Retail investors overwhelmingly bullish, large holders bearish — on the same market, the crowd is split.
Next, look at the results. The 24-hour positions of the four coins are all moving down: BTC down 2.04%, ZEC down 5.92%, ETH and SOL down 1.15% and 1.41% respectively. The side shouting the loudest for longs is the first to lighten positions.
Then look at the large holders. The number of people is bearish, but their positions are pushed up to 2.17. Few in number but heavy in position, the total network positions compressed to 135.3 billion, down 1.56%, while volume expanded to 174.9 billion, up 36.39%. Positions didn’t keep up, volume ran ahead.
So the motto remains: when the longs shout the loudest, chips change hands the fastest. BTC’s position cost is still held at 0.0104%, the most expensive among the four coins, while ZEC is only 0.0064%. The expensive positions don’t give ground, the cheap positions fall deepest, and the side following the trend is in no rush.
The large holders’ strategy is simple: don’t compete on numbers, press on positions. When the direction emerges, the first to be cleared is the side shouting for longs.
Tonight at 23:00, the position vacancy hasn’t opened yet, expected between 7.10 million and 7.22 million; August was 7.08 million. Before it lands, I won’t catch the retail side’s positions. Don’t bottom-fish before heavy long positions are cleared; follow the short when it breaks down, then flip back to long when it returns to holding side 🎯.IRYS JUMPS 11.12% AS BUYING ACTIVITY ACCELERATES
$IRYS is trading around $0.02217, up 11.12%, making it one of the strongest gainers on the displayed list.
The sharp move puts IRYS firmly on the market radar. After a rally of this size, the key test is whether buyers can defend the gains or profit-taking begins to emerge.SEMICONDUCTOR ETF RALLIES 4.91% AS CHIP STOCKS STRENGTHEN
$SOXL is trading around $73.69, up 4.91%, with turnover near $786M.
The move highlights strong demand across semiconductor exposure. However, SOXL is a leveraged ETF, so its gains and losses can be amplified. Sustained strength in the underlying chip sector will be important.Last week, all three directions I bet on hit the mark, and it was the kind of hit that didn’t require waiting: one already reached the take-profit point, the other two are still halfway there, but the direction was definitely right. Let me start with the results, then explain how I placed my bets this round—tonight, I increased my position size heavier than usual. First, about the market, don’t rush to call a crash. Bitcoin is at 77,231, down 0.8% in 24 hours, spot products have seen large net outflows for two consecutive days, nearly $400 million outflow in the last day, the Fear and Greed Index is 26, and October closed down 7.3%—the worst October in twelve years. It looks like all bad news, but there’s a counterintuitive point: the 24-hour trading volume shrank by about 75% compared to the previous day. When prices fall and volume collapses, it means those wanting to sell have already sold, and buyers haven’t rushed in to grab it; in such situations, trends don’t break, but opportunities arise. It was the same after the crash in March 2020; the real panic isn’t the price, it’s that no one is willing to bid; what’s different this time is that the leverage side has been calculated very clearly—long liquidations across the network exceeded $1 billion, all positions that should be cleared have been cleared, and floating positions are unusually clean. Reviewing without sugarcoating: the last round’s three picks all hit, a 100% hit rate. XRP was bought from 1.25 to 1.28, +2.11%, take-profit at 1.27 already reached; LINK from 11.11 to 11.19, +0.66%, take-profit at 11.33 not yet touched; HYPE from 84.10 to 85.73, +1.94%, take-profit at 86.20 just a bit away. All three directions were right, none was luck.OKB/USDT Market Update
OKB is trading at $OKB 109.33, down -0.04% today.
After pulling back from $OKB 123.33 down to a support floor around $OKB 106.00, the price is holding steady and consolidating.
Looking at past ups and downs, OKB often builds a strong base near support levels before starting a bounce.
My best prediction of all time for OKB is that if buyers hold support above $106.00, it can break past key resistance at $112.50 and push back toward $123.33+ to reach new highs! Midterm elections (starting November 3) are not presidential turnover
Friday's major non-farm payrolls (impacting December rate hike expectations)
This wave is just an oversold correction rebound after the big drop
It's not a trend reversal, long positions cannot get complacent
Wait for another bullish move before getting complacent again
End determination:
• Short-term resistance: $3980-3990
• Mid-term watershed: Effective hold above $4200-4220 to confirm the downtrend has ended.ZCASH STANDS OUT WITH A STRONG 4.84% ADVANCE
$ZEC is trading around $1,190.37, up 4.84%, making it the strongest crypto performer among the major coins visible in this snapshot.
Turnover has reached approximately $1.56B, highlighting significant market activity.
ZEC is showing clear relative strength. The important test is whether buyers can defend these gains.Many traders expect a market rebound ahead of the US midterm elections, believing the worst news is already priced in. However, the latest ETF data suggests caution is still necessary. On November 2, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $398.6M in net outflows, including $405.3M from IBIT, while FBTC attracted $6.7M. This follows another massive $643.2M outflow on October 30. Institutional demand needs to recover before BTC can build a stronger bottom. $ETH is facing similar pressure. Ethereum spot ETXRP LEADS THE MAJOR ALTCOINS WITH A 2.44% GAIN
$XRP is trading around $1.2802, up 2.44%, making it one of the stronger performers among the major assets shown.
Turnover has reached approximately $254M, indicating active trading.
The key question now is whether buyers can maintain this strength and push XRP toward its next resistance area.BITCOIN HOLDS ABOVE $77K AS BUYERS KEEP CONTROL
$BTC is trading around $77,274, up 0.62%. Bitcoin is showing modest strength, with turnover reaching approximately $5.6B.
The move is positive, but buyers still need stronger follow-through to turn this into a convincing breakout.
Watch whether BTC can maintain its position above $77K.The daily RSI of Bitcoin shows signs of being oversold! $BTC
Recently, the bulls have been thoroughly tested, with Bitcoin dropping from $86,000 all the way down to around $76,700, and the 365-day moving average has been fiercely contested.
However, take a look at the RSI indicator below, it's quite interesting! In February and June this year, the RSI fell to around 30 or even below twice, after which BTC experienced rebounds of varying degrees. Now the RSI has dropped again to around 35, not far from the oversold zone. I still believe BTC is in the early stage of a bull market, but the short-term trend is indeed weak.
RSI entering the oversold zone does not mean an immediate rebound, nor does it guarantee the bottom has been reached. Next, we need to see if it can hold steady around $76,000 and reclaim the 365-day moving average. This bull has been doing deep squats continuously lately; is it really preparing to jump?
Keep observing and patiently wait!#anthropicipo faces investor price pressure, valuation expected to drop to $1.5 trillion
【Follow Old Leek Wealth You Have】
📊 What impact does this have on the market?
US tech stocks: If Anthropic ultimately goes public at a valuation significantly lower than previously expected, it could further affect market pricing of the AI sector, especially companies with high valuations and longer profit realization cycles.
$NVDAB and the computing power industry chain: AI demand remains huge, but investors may focus more on whether computing power procurement can generate actual revenue, not just the scale of data center construction.
$BTC, $ETH: The impact mainly transmits through macro risk appetite. If AI valuation adjustments trigger further tech stock sell-offs, risk assets may be suppressed by sentiment, but this does not necessarily mean the crypto market will follow down.
AI-related tokens: The market may place more emphasis on real users, revenue, and commercial implementation capabilities. Projects relying solely on AI concepts for valuation premiums may face stricter market scrutiny.
Based on this valuation range, it is about 20% to 25% lower than previous expectations. However, this is only the pricing tendency proposed by investors; Anthropic has not yet finalized its valuation, number of shares issued, or issue price.
📌 There are three noteworthy details about this valuation change:
1️⃣ Investors are beginning to worry that AI valuations are too high
2️⃣ Revenue growth is astonishing, but costs and losses are equally staggering
3️⃣ IPO pricing may become an important indicator for the AI industry There's something I've never quite understood: why do some people always choose to sell when the market is falling?
This morning, an address did exactly that. It had been inactive for 22 days, but as soon as the market dropped, it first redeemed from Compound, then sold 1,470 ETH on-chain, worth 3.31 million USD, and also cleared out 63.46 WBTC and cbBTC, worth 4.868 million USD, totaling 8.18 million.
They don't sell when prices rise, but sell when prices fall. If it were me, I'd probably think, since it's already dropped this much, just wait a bit longer. But this person waited 22 days. Maybe for them, whether the price falls or not isn't important; what's important is that they've realized they shouldn't hold so much.$SOL + explosive bullish breakout charging ahead as buyers fiercely defend support zones.
EP: 92.80 - 93.30
TP: 97.50
SL: 91.20
Solana is priming for a massive wave upward with intense market pressure driving the next leg higher.
Let's go $SOL
#OKXOrbitTopics $SNDK Tonight, SanDisk (SNDK) and Ethereum (ETH) show fundamentally different logic and technical patterns, but both face some short-term downward pressure. Here is a detailed analysis of the movements of these two assets tonight:
1. SanDisk (SNDK): Earnings surge can't hide short-term selling pressure, technicals severely oversold
SanDisk's recent performance shows a serious divergence between "strong fundamentals" and "technical collapse."
Fundamental positives: The company set a record with Q1 revenue of $11.03 billion, a year-over-year surge of over 370%, and announced a $5 billion stock buyback plan along with an 8:1 stock split. Institutions like Morgan Stanley remain optimistic about its data center demand, maintaining a $1750 target price.
Short-term negatives and technicals: Despite strong earnings, SanDisk's stock price has recently plunged. On one hand, the CFO admitted weak demand in the low-end consumer market, sparking concerns about smartphone and PC sales declines; on the other hand, Apple’s gross margin expectations fell due to rising storage chip costs, causing a post-market drop of over 2%, which negatively impacted sentiment toward SanDisk.
Tonight's outlook: Technically, SanDisk's current price has fallen below all key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 200-day), and indicators like RSI show deep oversold conditions. After the US market opens tonight, SanDisk is likely still in a bottom-seeking and consolidation phase. Although fundamentals are strong, given the current market-wide capital withdrawal from the tech sector, a strong V-shaped rebound may be difficult in the short term, and the risk of continued downward momentum should be watched.
$ETH
2. Ethereum (ETH): Bears dominate, short-term downtrend unchanged
Ethereum's movement tonight is expected to continue the recent weak and volatile pattern.
Macro and capital flow: Ethereum faces severe outflow pressure, with October spot ETFs recording a historic net outflow of $1.61 billion. Additionally, the aftermath of the Binance hack and macro uncertainties (such as the upcoming nonfarm payroll data) keep market sentiment in the "fear" zone.
Technicals: Ethereum’s price is hovering around $2250-$2280. Technical analysis shows ETH is continuously suppressed by the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) and is running along a major downtrend line. The relative strength index (RSI) also signals negativity, with the short-term dominant trend remaining downward.
Tonight's outlook: Ethereum is very likely to remain under pressure tonight. The price may oscillate narrowly between $2237 (24-hour low) and $2300. If it breaks the key support at $2160, it could trigger further liquidation cascades. Without short-term positive catalysts, resistance to a rebound tonight is significant. #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC
The Bitcoin four-year cycle perfectly coincides with the US midterm elections, which is quite a coincidence.
Every midterm election period marks the end of a bear market. This was the case in 2014, 2018, and 2022. After the midterm elections, there is another sharp drop, the market bottoms out, and the bull market begins.
The difference is that each bottoming time has been occurring earlier. $SOL has been running continuously for 1000 days, with tokenized stock value reaching $3.9 billion in October, yet SOLANA's stock price still dropped by 21%!
On November 2nd, the Solana network reached 1000 consecutive days of operation since its launch on February 6, 2024, and processed $3.9 billion in tokenized stock transactions in October. However, the SOL token fell about 21% that month, and a critical security vulnerability affecting five validator nodes led to approximately $135,000 being stolen.
A stable network and high transaction volume do not necessarily mean SOL needs to be purchased, as tokenized stock trades are paid using USDC. The validator issue was related to operator keys, not a protocol error, and the custodian's funds were not affected.
Should a well-operating network see its price increase?Today's market is a bit divisive.
On the A-share side, the media sector surged over 7%, short dramas and games hit the 20% daily limit in batches, and liquor stocks followed Maotai upwards.
Money is being pulled out from banks and coal into growth and major consumer sectors, the style rotation is quite intense.
In the US pre-market, memory chips are surging again, with SanDisk and Micron up over 3%, but Apple's earnings report actually dropped 4%.
Within the same tech sector, they are also competing against each other.
Looking at crypto, it's much gloomier; $BTC is bottoming around 77,000, $ETH stuck around 2,250, and the fear and greed index has dropped directly to 33.
ETFs have had net outflows for several consecutive days, BlackRock alone withdrew over 200 million in one day, and leveraged longs are being squeezed layer by layer.
The strange thing is that whales are secretly accumulating, ETFs are selling, big players are buying, both sides are opposing each other.
The stock market is searching for its own local opportunities, while crypto is overall suppressed by fear; the real direction might have to wait until after the non-farm payrolls to see if ETFs can stop the bleeding.$ZEC + massive bullish surge dominating the charts with intense buying pressure.
EP: 1,180 - 1,190
TP: 1,260
SL: 1,155
Zcash is rocketing upward with strong continuation signals backing a massive run.
Let's go $ZEC
#OKXOrbitTopics .$BNB 正在讲一个市场最不爱听的故事：生态在加速，价格却在拖后腿。$BNB Chain 推进 Jenner 硬分叉与支付通道优化，代币化基金与 RWA 陆续落地，交易所公链的定位被反复加固——可 $BNB 报价约 697，成为三大主流资产中承压最重的一个。 这种背离才是当下最值得盯住的信号。市场习惯把“生态进展”直接翻译成“资金回流”，但提款恢复、资产代币化、链上工具扩张，都不等于持币者会立刻看到买盘。叙事切换到长期用户转化，需要时间；而短期定价，仍被近期安全事件的余波压着。 先看 $BTC，约 76850，24 小时内明显回落，已失守 77000。能否重新站稳这一关口，是判断短线情绪修复的第一道门槛；若站不回去，反弹更像技术性回抽而非趋势反转。 再看 $ETH，约 2248，走势相对跟随。2300 附近的压力仍在，短线上攻动能偏弱，它更像是被动跟涨的角色，而非领涨引擎。真正的观察点是它能否在 $BTC 企稳后补上相对强度。 $BNB 则是三者中压力最大的一枚。690 是眼前的关键防线，一旦继续失守，短期抛压可能被放大。反过来，若生态落地能换来真实的链上资金流入，它也是三者中预期差最TRUMP/USDT Market Update
TRUMP is trading at $TRUMP 1.595, down -0.43% today.
After sliding from $TRUMP 1.922 to a recent support level near $TRUMP 1.467, price action is attempting to stabilize around the $1.60 zone.
Historically, political and meme tokens experience sharp swings before consolidation phases.
My best prediction of all time for TRUMP is that if buyers defend the $1.46 floor, a recovery push toward $1.80–$1.92 is likely. $EDGE - the token of the Definitive project. It is a non-custodial platform and API for trade execution. The coin is trading approximately 91–92% below its August 2025 peak, and its FDV is 3.6 times higher than the market capitalization. The analysis answers two questions: what the token actually does and how well the connection to the platform's revenue is confirmed. Context: The Definitive project operates as an execution layer for traders, funds, and integrators. The user does not transfer funds to the platform but signs transactions themselves. For andIf you destroy so many stablecoins, where do you get the funds to drive the market?
This morning, Tether destroyed another 2 billion USDT.
In the past 30 days, the total supply of stablecoins has also decreased by nearly 9 billion USD. USDT alone dropped by about 3 billion USD within 7 days. ETFs have also been relatively weak recently.
→ Currently, cash flow remains weak; any rebound will mainly be technical rather than significant growth.
This is somewhat similar to what happened in June, when stablecoin supply sharply declined. $BTC did rebound, but the momentum was not strong enough. We need to wait until around August, when funds flow back in, for it to rise again.Saylor often buys low and sells high, but this time he was different. $MSTR $BTC
Between October 26 and November 1, Bitcoin's price plummeted to $76,000, and Saylor took the opportunity to buy 811 more bitcoins.
Saylor currently holds 849,327 bitcoins.
I don't know how he will profit, but this time the price he bought at was definitely the lowest.针对美国联邦调查局（FBI）呼吁 THORNode 运营商拦截与币安被盗资产相关的交易，THORChain 联合创始人 John-Paul Barraford 作出回应，称节点运营商掌握的所有信息均已公开并可实时获取，调查人员无需传票即可获得。FBI 此前将币安超 60 亿美元资产被盗事件归因于朝鲜黑客组织 TraderTraitor，并呼吁 THORNode 运营商等拦截涉及所列地址或源自这些地址的交易。Barraford 于北京时间 11 月 1 日 08:02 作出上述表态，其回应涉及信息获取，但并未承诺拦截相关地址。 理念冲突：去中心化与执法干预 此次交锋凸显了去中心化金融的无许可精神与执法部门主动干预之间的根本矛盾。THORChain 是一个去中心化流动性协议，依赖独立节点运营商网络来验证跨链兑换。与中心化交易所不同，它没有中央权威来执行黑名单。Barraford 的立场强调，虽然协议的透明度有助于调查——任何人都可以查看链上数据——但它并不实施地址级别的审查。这一区别至关重要：FBI 的请求暗示了一种去中心化协议在结构上无法提供的控制水平。 对 DeFi 与执法的影响 FBWhen the market falls, some wake up.
On the morning of November 3rd, a whale address that had been silent for 22 days suddenly moved. It first redeemed assets from Compound, then sold them in bulk on-chain: 1470 ETH, about 3.31 million USD; 63.46 WBTC and cbBTC, about 4.868 million USD. In total, it cashed out approximately 8.18 million USD.
8.18 million is not an astronomical amount, but the timing is worth noting. The market is falling, most people choose to hold steady; it chooses to convert its position into cash during the decline, and it sells in concentrated bulk rather than placing slow limit orders.
More importantly, the structure. Someone who only wants to reduce ETH wouldn’t casually clear WBTC and cbBTC, and someone who only wants to reduce Bitcoin exposure wouldn’t touch ETH. Selling both assets simultaneously points not to swapping coins, but to holding fewer coins overall, reducing the overall proportion of crypto assets. The money was still redeemed from Compound, so it had to be moved out of the protocol before selling.
But a single address’s action can’t prove "funds are withdrawing," nor can costs and profits be confirmed. The 8.18 million might be a take-profit planned 22 days ago, or a hedge against further short-term decline.
What’s worth thinking about is not what it sold, but that it waited 22 days. An address that could hold still chose to act on the day of the drop, likely not based on price, but on something it believed had changed. What that something is, the blockchain won’t tell you.🚨 The bull isn't dead, but it's still at the ICU door!
$BTC's rebound to around 77,000 remains weak, with the 78,000 level repeatedly resisted. If 76,300 USD is lost, it may face pressure again.
$ETH has returned to around 2,280 USD, with 2,300 USD still a key resistance; $SOL has dropped to around 90 USD, and the weak trend has yet to reverse.
📉 Latest news: The US spot BTC ETF has seen net outflows for two consecutive days, with about 399 million USD withdrawn on November 2 alone. The capital retreat combined with the uncertainty of the US midterm elections keeps market sentiment cautious. Friday's non-farm payroll data will also be a new catalyst for volatility.
The boss says:
A rebound does not equal a reversal, and a bull market isn't declared by shouting. Whether BTC can reclaim 78,000, ETH can hold above 2,300, and SOL can defend 90 are the key points to watch next.
The trend is not confirmed, so don't rush to call the bull's return!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
⚠️ Always set your stop-loss orders properly.Revenue nearly doubled, but the stock price is being hammered down. Would you dare to take on such an earnings report?
Palantir's Q3 revenue was $2.31 billion, up 96% year-over-year, exceeding expectations. But the market focused on another figure: new contract value only increased by 6%, compared to 49% last quarter. Investing.com mentioned that U.S. commercial contract value dropped from 153% to 11%.
Binance perpetual futures fell nearly 11% in one day yesterday, now around 166. The first key level I'm watching today is the low at 165; a rebound would first target 178 (Monday's close). My view: growth rate can't be faked, but the slowdown in orders will lead to a revaluation. I'd rather wait for it to stabilize before making a move.
Do you think this is an overreaction, or is the valuation finally correcting downward?
$PLTR $NVDAThe impact of this on the stock market, crypto circle, bond market, and the US dollar—don't listen to analysts making it sound too mystical; essentially, it's about how funds position themselves. $BTC $ETH $SNDK First scenario: Republicans take both chambers. The US stock market and AI trading will breathe a sigh of relief, regulatory environment will most likely remain loose, and legislative resistance in the crypto space will be much smaller. But the bond market might come under pressure, as the market worries about expanded fiscal spending, bond yields rise, and the dollar strengthens accordingly. Second scenario: Democrats sweep both chambers. AI and big tech stocks face the most pressure, regulatory and investigation risks increase, Trump's proposed tax cuts and spending plans are likely to be blocked, and crypto legislation negotiations will drag on for a long time. Market volatility may amplify. Third scenario, and the most likely stalemate: one party controls one chamber each. Major bills basically won't pass smoothly, uncertainty over government funding and debt ceiling will cause market fluctuations. But this might not be bad for stocks; without major policy changes, funds might actually feel safer. If the results drag on for a long time, for example requiring a recount, stocks, bonds, and the dollar will definitely wobble in the short term. Finally, a blunt truth. Many people think if Democrats win, the stock market crashes; if Republicans win, the stock market soars. That's not true. Historical data shows that since 1950, the S&P 500 has recorded positive returns one year after every midterm election, with an average gain of about 15%. The market isn't afraid of bad news, it's afraid of uncertainty. Once the result is out, everyone goes back to doing what they should. So don't heavily bet on election outcomes. Wait for it to settle; if it really drops, that's when to look for opportunities.#$WLD
Breaking news: A whale deposited $51 million worth of AAVE and WLD into several exchanges over 10 days. The comment section below is full of "It's going to crash."
I first pulled up the contract pool to check. WLD perpetual positions hold $29.25 million. Twenty-nine million, not two hundred ninety million. The 24-hour volume is around 20 million tokens.
The price dropped from 0.3801 this morning steadily down to 0.3642, with a low of 0.3636, a 5% drop.$ZEC: Short on the rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 1210-1215 range (bulls' average cost line and previous intermediate resistance platform during the downtrend), then enter short.
· The target is first 1120 (24-hour low); if it breaks down effectively, then look at the 1100 round number. Set stop loss above 1235 (bears' average cost line).
Core basis:
1. The large-scale bearish trend remains unchanged: Although there was a deep V rebound at 1120 on the 1-hour chart, the overall trend is still within the descending channel since 1397. The current rally is a technical correction after overselling and has already hit EMA20 resistance, limiting upward space.
2. Heavy selling pressure from trapped longs: Chart 1 shows the bulls' average cost is as high as 1214. The current rebound price is approaching this area; once reached, the previously trapped longs will desperately cut losses and flee. The main force will definitely not easily lift the price to help retail investors break even.
3. Long-short double trap: Short positions reach 200 million U (5 times the longs). The main force is highly likely to use this rebound to lure longs, then smash the market after retail investors chase longs, breaking below 1120 to trigger a long squeeze and profit from the shorts.
$BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ With such a large short sentiment, has the market already bottomed out?
Historical pattern: In the past three midterm elections, Bitcoin's median return three months after the election was about -31%, with the low point occurring between 13 to 71 days post-election. But the average increase one year after the election is about 54%, so the bulls are betting on a drop first and then a rise. Everyone says it hasn't bottomed yet, so I'll play this big wave; if successful, it will accelerate our plan to flip the position by year-end, and if it fails, it's just a retreat of early profits! "Duodan stop loss set at 76000, take profit set at 80000" $BTC $ETH $SNDK #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 #CoinbaseQ3ProfitReturns
A closer look at Coinbase's $719M Q3 profit reveals an important distinction.
Reported net income: $719M. Adjusted net income: approximately $78M.
Crypto investment gains played a major role in the difference.
Strong headlines matter, but understanding the quality of earnings matters even more.
#Coinbase #COIN #Web3 Opinion: Bitcoin $BTC may enter a period of several months of volatility, potentially becoming an opportunity for short-term traders before the next rally $ETH $ZEC
Odaily Planet Daily reports that trader Killa stated the Bitcoin market may continue to fluctuate over the coming months. If the Bitcoin bottom has already formed, the pace of this cycle's advancement will obviously be faster. Before the next upward trend arrives, the market is likely to enter a phase of volatility suitable for frequent short-term trading. $PENDLE An anomaly, it feels a bit uncomfortable when looking closely at night.
Logically, when a withdrawal recovery happens, once the news is out, someone should rush in and volume should increase. But what about this? It dropped 12 points in 7 days, and the trading volume is only half of the usual. It's not just me feeling unenthusiastic; the whole market is inactive.
What's even more awkward is the price level — now at 1.75. Those who bought it 90 days ago have a 25-point unrealized gain, while those who bought 30 days ago are stuck, still down 28 points without recovery. On one side, holders have floating profits ready to cash out anytime; on the other, short-term holders are trapped waiting for a rebound to escape. So even though the news is out, no one is stepping in to buy, which means "withdrawals are possible" doesn't mean "someone wants to buy."
I wrote about it during the day today; the lifting of the seal has never been good news. Now this view is even more confirmed.
What I care about is whether it can hold the 1.7 level, a price point it has seen before. If it breaks down, it means a new round of bottom searching; if it holds, it just recovers some short-term momentum. There's no need to rush in the meantime. What I'm more concerned about is who will break this deadlock. $PENDLE $CRCL Q3 earnings report is about to be released, and this time I chose NO, which means betting that the earnings will not meet market expectations.
My core judgment is: revenue may not be bad, but there could be pressure on the profit side.
First, USDC circulation at the end of Q3 was about $74.58 billion, with limited growth compared to the end of Q2; the stablecoin scale expansion speed is not outstanding. Second, Circle's core profit model relies on interest income generated by USDC reserve assets. The Federal Reserve's rate cuts will lower the yield on reserve assets, so even if USDC scale grows, it does not mean profits can grow in sync.
Additionally, Circle's operating expenses have increased in previous quarters, which will further squeeze profit margins. Compared to revenue, I am more worried that this EPS will not meet market expectations.
Of course, NO is not a guaranteed win. The market may have already priced in some negative factors, and if revenue exceeds expectations and management provides optimistic guidance, market sentiment could be reversed.
My strategy is to continue favoring the NO direction, focusing on EPS, reserve income, and management's outlook on future interest rates and USDC growth. Hopefully, my position won't be blown out!
#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Bitcoin (BTC): Currently trading between 76,000 and 77,000 USD, down about 1.7%–2% in the last 24 hours. Heavy selling pressure near 78,000 USD; the weekend's volume-less rally was wiped out by a single bearish candle. On the downside, watch if the dense zone around 76,500 USD can hold; if broken, lower levels will be tested.
Ethereum (ETH): Currently around 2,250–2,280 USD, down about 1.4% in 24 hours. The trend is weaker than Bitcoin's, unable to keep up on the rise and leading the fall. Short-term support is near 2,230 USD, with further support at the previous low of 2,172 USD.
Why the drop: It's not a single negative factor but a combination. The US midterm elections are voting today, so funds prefer to withdraw and wait; tech stocks are under collective pressure, the Nasdaq just entered a technical correction, and risk sentiment is spilling over into crypto; Bitcoin ETFs recorded large net outflows a few days ago, with institutional buying noticeably absent above 80,000 USD.
$BTC
$ETH $LIT Michael Selig, Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), announced on November 3 that equity perpetual futures (Equity Perps) have been approved for the first time to be listed and traded on qualified U.S. regulated exchanges. These exchanges must be registered with the CFTC and have completed the notice registration for securities futures product exchanges with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Selig stated that the related contracts have been deemed approved under CFTC rules and are securities futures products subject to dual regulation by both the CFTC and SEC. This move expands the scope of U.S. regulated perpetual futures products from digital commodities to traditional stocks, providing U.S. traders with a compliant domestic trading channel. 🐂 The bull isn't dead, but recovery is still uncertain.
$BTC is hovering near $77.8K, facing strong resistance at $78K. Losing $76.3K could trigger further downside.
$ETH is around $2.3K but needs a stronger hold to confirm recovery.
$SOL remains weak near $93, with ETF outflows and monthly losses adding pressure.
The biggest issue isn't sentiment—it's the lack of fresh capital. US midterms and upcoming jobs data could bring more volatility.
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ The core profit logic of Circle is very clear: the vast majority of revenue comes from interest on USDC reserves in U.S. Treasuries. An increase in on-chain transaction volume does not equate to a simultaneous rise in profits. What truly determines profitability are the circulating supply, reserve yield, and the high channel distribution costs. The core market contention in this round is whether the expansion of stablecoin scale can offset the income shrinkage caused by falling interest rates.
On the positive side, USDC leverages compliance advantages and the CCTP cross-chain protocol to continuously capture institutional funds and traditional dollar transfer demand. The EU's MiCA compliance support also opens overseas opportunities. If the circulating volume rebounds in this earnings report and the platform's self-custody proportion increases, it can reduce channel commissions paid to exchanges, significantly improving profit margins. This is the signal most valued by bulls.
Risks are also prominent. The Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle suppresses reserve yields, so even if USDC issuance rises, the incremental interest income is easily eaten up by lower rates; meanwhile, USDT continues to seize market share, and channel incentive costs are hard to reduce amid industry competition. Additionally, regulatory uncertainties, reserve audits, and rumors of runs will disturb funds.
The earnings report focuses on four key indicators: average USDC circulation, reserve yield, distribution cost ratio, and adjusted EBITDA. If only transaction volume surges but circulating supply growth is weak, even with high on-chain activity, performance expectations are likely to fall short. In the short term, stock prices are highly sensitive to circulation data and interest rate guidance, amplifying volatility. $BTC $ETH $SNDK A rebound is not a signal of a trend reversal: The high shorting windows for BTC, ETH, and ZEC are waiting for confirmation
I still maintain a bearish perspective on this rebound. As of November 3rd, 22:00, BTC is currently at 77,238, down 0.82% in 24 hours. The daily MACD remains in a death cross, SuperTrend is at 82,779 and trending downward; although there was a short-term pullback from around 76,389, the volume is only 0.65 times the 7-day average, making the rebound look more like a correction rather than a trend reversal.
ETH is at 2,285, down 0.18% in 24 hours, with the MACD death cross not yet reversed, and the SuperTrend downtrend at 2,490. The area around 2,360 is not a reason to "go long just because it's bullish"; the key is whether the rebound can gain volume and firmly hold near the 25-day moving average; otherwise, selling pressure after a rally may still dominate.
ZEC is at 1,191.66, down 5.54% in 24 hours. Although it rebounded from 1,120 during the day, there is net capital outflow, the MACD just formed a death cross, and there is still significant room below the 7-day high of 1,398. Around 1,350, if there is another volume-contracted rally with weakening support, that will be a key structural level for bears to watch.
On the news front, changes in stablecoin supply and anti-fraud warnings have not directly reversed risk appetite. For me: going long requires confirmation, and going short also requires the rebound structure to complete; do not mistake an oversold rebound for a trend reversal. BTC+ETH+ZEC surged sharply at the US stock market open—is this a bull trap?
The above is market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.76,386 📉—— The most expensive lower shadow today.
The 76,600 this morning was not a breakout, but a hunt. That lower shadow dipping to 76,386 wasn’t held for 1 hour and then pulled back, now it’s back above 77,200.
Long positions at full rate (0.01%) haven’t withdrawn, OI is stuck at 2.57 billion with no movement—no one really dares to short on the drop.
US futures turned green: Nasdaq +1%, S&P +0.33%. However, oil prices surged due to the Middle East, gold fell below 3900, risk appetite is split.
My judgment: 76,600 won’t be lost, at least a retest of 78,800. Only if it closes above on the 1-hour chart will 80,500 be in sight. Valid from tonight’s US session until 8 AM tomorrow before rate settlement.
If 76,600 is lost again, this daytime rebound is fake, I admit my mistake here, target returns to 75,200.
Nasdaq this time, will crypto follow?
$BTC $ETH #BTC continues to be under pressure, capital and market trends diverge
The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. BTC dropped to about 73,508, with roughly $1.587 billion worth of long position liquidation pressure stacked below.
ChainCatcher relayed from Coinglass: breaking below $73,508, the cumulative long liquidation pressure on major CEXs is about $1.587 billion; breaking above $81,144, the short side pressure is about $1.43 billion. At the time of writing, BTC is around 77,228.
The pool below is closer than the one above: if the price dips further, long position pressure will be triggered first. The intensity is based on monitoring criteria and will adjust with the order book; it does not mean a large number of positions have already been liquidated.
Are you more afraid of hitting 73,508 to liquidate longs first, or breaking up to 81,144 to squeeze shorts first?
I will continue writing when the liquidation map updates, please follow. #BTC
$BTC 🔥 The US midterm election curse reappears? BTC's historical patterns are worth noting!
Looking back at the past three midterm elections, $BTC has hit a phase bottom after each election:
📉 2014: Bottomed about 71 days later at around $170, then surged over 100 times!
📉 2018: Bottomed about 39 days later at $3,200, then later peaked above $64,000!
📉 2022: Bottomed in just 13 days at $15,500, then once surged up to $126,000!
Interestingly, the time for BTC to bottom is getting shorter, suggesting the market might be forming some cyclical pattern.
📰 Latest news: The 2026 US midterm election is held today. BTC had already dropped to about $57,700 in July, breaking the previous pattern of bottoming only after the election. The market is currently focused on the election results, ETF fund flows, and the volatility brought by this week's non-farm payroll data.
A word from the leader:
History can be a reference but not a script. The rebounds in the past three rounds don’t guarantee a repeat this time.
The more panic in the market, the more you need to stay calm. 👀
Will $BTC bottom early this time, or face another deep correction?
Make sure to set your stop-loss orders properly.Odaily Planet Daily reports that trader Killa recently predicted that Bitcoin is very likely to maintain a volatile range in the coming months.
If the bottom has already been established, the speed of this cycle's start may exceed expectations. Before the arrival of a new major upward trend, the market is more suitable for short-term traders to operate repeatedly.
During the volatile phase, bulls and bears tug back and forth, easily triggering stop losses repeatedly. Trend traders can patiently wait for a clear direction, while short-term traders must strictly control stop losses. There is no absolute standard answer for the market; do you think the bottom has been confirmed?