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The $72.8K zone makes sense from a risk-reward perspective, especially after BTC's sustained sell-off.
One detail worth adding: Strategy's average BTC acquisition cost is currently around $75,451, with 849,327 BTC in its treasury. A move towards $72.8K would put price meaningfully below that cost basis, making the zone an important psychological level for the market.
That doesn't guarantee a bounce, but combined with an oversold market and potential short-coveringWhy does it keep falling? CORE's five nooses: from 6.47 to 0.013, an endless plunge
As of November 3, 2026, CORE is priced at about $0.012, down approximately 11.5% in 24 hours, nearly 30% over 7 days, having retraced over 99% from its all-time high. Noose 1: Ecosystem revenue far below expectations. Modules like SatPay, AMP, LST have launched, but actual TVL is only in the tens of millions of dollars range, protocol revenue is too small, and buyback strength cannot offset unlocked selling pressure. Noose 2: Long inflation cycle. Total supply is 2.1 billion tokens, with about 48% circulating. Mining rewards continue to release with a 3.61% annual decay for 81 years, causing long-term supply-side pressure. Noose 3: Extremely fragile liquidity. 24-hour trading volume is only about $3.09 million; large sell orders can trigger liquidation cascades. In March this year, the Colend protocol liquidation caused a single-day drop of 50%. Noose 4: Repeated security incidents. At the end of October, the b14g protocol was attacked, with 97 million CORE stolen. Although a hard fork recovered about 68.15 million tokens, the distribution plan has not been implemented, damaging trust again. Noose 5: Governance handover causes uncertainty. Core DAO is transferring control from the core team to the community, with unclear decision directions, and the market is voting with its feet. The chain is alive, but the coin is "effectively dead." The team is still developing, institutional cooperation is ongoing, and there is no trigger condition for a total wipeout. However, if buybacks and burns cannot outpace inflation and TVL cannot return to growth... Monday Market Observation｜Four assets each with their own storyline👀
$BTC｜78145
Asian funds entered, rebounding from 76300 to 78145, futures up 1.5%. Binance resumed withdrawals with outflows of 3.64 billion, yet the market did not crash. Next, the key focus is whether Asian funds can hold the 78000 level.
$OKB｜111
Down for three consecutive days, although there is positive news that OKX, ICE, and Trade.xyz are pushing perpetual contracts into the US compliant market, funds are not buying in. The platform token shows independent weakness, and the exchange sector as a whole is dragged down by the Binance hack incident.
$RE｜0.37
A public chain insurance protocol, with a trading volume of only 530,000 and very thin order book. Logically, the Binance hack would be the easiest trigger for insurance narratives, but funds have completely stayed out, and the concept failed to gain traction.
$WLD｜0.42
World App users continue to grow, but the token price has yet to follow suit. The project has a real user base, but the risk of biometric privacy regulation hangs overhead, and this sword has yet to fall.
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 Title: 71 days, 39 days, 13 days! BTC Midterm Election Bottom Pattern, Will It Still Hold This Time?
After the past three U.S. midterm elections, BTC exhibited an interesting phenomenon: the market did not bottom immediately after the election ended.
About 71 days after the November 2014 election, BTC bottomed in January 2015 at around $170; about 39 days after the 2018 election, BTC dropped to about $3,200 in December; about 13 days after the 2022 election, BTC dipped to around $15,500 in November.
Even more coincidentally, the intervals between bottoms showed a gradual shortening pattern of 71, 39, and 13 days. In the subsequent three cycles, BTC rose to approximately $20,000, $64,000, and above $126,000 respectively.
But is this really a pattern brought by the midterm elections? Not necessarily. The 2018 period coincided with a crypto bear market, and 2022 was further impacted by the FTX collapse. Macro environment and industry cycles are the key variables.
What’s more noteworthy is that in 2026, BTC’s annual low so far appeared on July 1 at about $57,850, 125 days before the November 3 election. The historical rhythm has clearly shifted.
My view: History can provide an observational framework but cannot offer precise bottom-timing dates. Rather than waiting for the 13th or 39th day after the election, it’s better to focus on ETF capital flows, macro liquidity, and whether the market structure truly reverses. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ What’s next for BTC? Will it continue to fall or start to rise?
Rumors about a $6.3 billion hack at an exchange have been circulating wildly recently. If we were still in a bear market, the price would have already dropped below 70,000 or even 60,000 last week. But the fact is, the decline that started from 87,395 has lasted 39 days with an overall drop of only 12.88%.
This confirms my judgment: the drop from 87,395 is a weekly-level correction against the weekly rise from 57,800 to 87,395, To pour some cold water first, what I see is not "institutions finally squeezing into the same market," but rather that they can continue to maintain their own ledgers separately. Just because technology connects the doors doesn't mean the people inside are willing to do business with each other; I don't want to skip over this distinction.
Consensys's sovereign network interoperability solution is based on Ethereum, allowing institutions to settle securities, exchange currencies, and issue collateral across ledgers without cross-chain operations or moving assets to a shared ledger; assets remain on their native ledgers, execution is verified by zero-knowledge proofs, no additional trusted intermediaries are needed, and transactions are visible only to relevant parties. I tend to see this as a tool for institutional collaboration rather than a liquidity boost for the entire market. There are two reasons: the ability to execute between ledgers does not mean participants are willing to provide quotes and collateral; there is still a business willingness gap between technical connectivity and transaction depth; privacy can reduce information exposure but cannot alone imply an expanded participation scope, and it remains unanswered how much convenience ordinary users can share.
Of course, optimists might be right. If we later see different institutions continuously conducting real settlements rather than just proving the system can run, I will raise my evaluation of it; if it can also show how these businesses improve market depth, I would be willing to take back this cold water. What I will focus on next is whether there is business after the connection, not how smooth the interface sounds.① $BTC
Contract net outflow of 194 million USD, spot market simultaneously outflowing 76.36 million USD. Both contract and spot markets are fleeing; it's not just leverage withdrawing, long-term spot holdings are also exiting.
② $ETH
The weakest market structure. Contract outflow of 95.69 million, spot outflow of 114 million, spot outflow exceeds contract. Real money is continuously fleeing, the foundation visibly weakening.
③ $SOL
The only slight glimmer: contract outflow of 79.49 million, but spot market slightly net inflow of 8.84 million, showing some support at low levels. However, this amount is negligible compared to the massive contract outflow, merely partial absorption, far from a sign of strengthening.
Afternoon market confirms: in the one-hour cycle, all four coins' positions collectively retreat, volume expands, positions can't keep up. Even ZEC turnover is hot, but positions continue to withdraw; the entire market is pulling back to observe.
Multiple variables pressuring the market tonight: 23:00 JOLTS job openings data; US midterm election voting begins, results expected Wednesday morning; second phase of withdrawals advancing simultaneously, liquidity disturbances ongoing.
My bottom line is clear: to rebound and stabilize, two signals must appear—spot outflow rate narrows first, followed by contract funds returning. Before these two signals materialize, firmly no chasing the rally.
What do you think, which will return first—the spot funds or the contract funds?
#USMidtermElectionsApproaching, which results are worth watching❓
$BTC $ETH $SOL$BCH BCH shorts are really stubborn now. Not only are they paying interest to the longs every day, but the spikes at the 289 level have all been instantly pulled back, clearly the market is a bit hard to push down. After CME compliant futures launched, institutional hedging channels just opened, and the old coin has switched to a new playstyle with storytelling. The main force just casually raises a hand, and below is all ready-made short squeeze fuel.
#BCH
$BCH
👇$SUI scares people every day with large unlocks, but when checking the on-chain data, 70% of the unlocked tokens are immediately put back into the staking pool.
There really isn't much increase in circulating supply in the market.
Those who hastily shorted trying to ride the wind must have miscalculated this time; do they really think tokens are free?
#SUI
$SUI
👇If I were to write a strategy, I would set one rule: if the stock token collateral expands, record it as an "increase in capital usage scenarios," not directly as a positive signal. Lighter recently added 12 new stock tokens as collateral on Robinhood Chain, bringing the total number of listed stock tokens to 23.🤖
As a quantitative newbie, what I care more about is: with more varieties, will the risk become harder to calculate? The benefit is that users holding the new collateral have more usage channels; the downside is that multiple stocks do not equal multiple independent risks. If they move in the same direction, the seemingly diversified collateral basket may still face pressure together. This is my speculation and does not represent something that has already happened.
So I would add one observation condition: after expansion, whether the collateral assets are concentrated in a few stocks, rather than just the number of new additions. If you were to write this condition, would you look at the proportion of a single stock or the correlation between stocks?$ETH just after 2 PM, exactly the time when your eyelids are drooping and you want to grab some afternoon tea to recharge. I casually checked the contract data of these popular altcoins, and wow, it almost shocked me awake! These coins are plunging like a waterfall below, and the most ridiculous thing is that retail bulls are still frantically bottom-fishing!
First, look at $ZEC, current price 1132, which has plummeted 11% today. But if you look closely at the 4-hour long-short ratio, it’s still 1.91. Despite falling to this terrible state, retail investors are still buying, and all the chips are in the bulls’ hands. The big players’ scythe is specially designed to cut down all dissenters. Don’t think you can buy just because it’s dropped a lot.
Next, $HYPE, current price 83.5, the previous hype has completely dissipated. Now it’s a slow decline at a high level, with a long-short ratio of 1.94. The open interest keeps refusing to drop, bulls are holding positions stubbornly below. The big players have finished distributing chips at the high level, now it’s a dull knife cutting flesh—whoever goes in gets trapped.
The most outrageous is $UNI, current price 6.97, the most crowded leverage in the market, with a 4-hour long-short ratio as high as 2.04. The daily chart keeps falling without stopping, retail investors buy more as it falls, and all the leverage is crowded on the bullish side. As soon as the market trembles even a little, this coin will definitely be the first to be pulled out as a sacrifice, with a downward spike ready to trigger.
To sum up, the current market is a panic sell-off that hasn’t fully played out, leverage hasn’t been cleaned out, and catching the fall is purely stubborn. Watch more, act less.
Which of these three struggling brothers do you hold? Are you prepared to hold on to the end, or are you rushing to cut losses and run?
#US October Nonfarm Preview: Employment Growth May Influence December Rate Hike Expectations Afternoon of 2026-11-03 $ETH is roughly in the $2248–$2262 range
Price is weak, but the divergence between fundamentals and macro capital flow is deepening.
ETF funds continue to outflow: In October, spot ETH ETF net outflow was about $1.61 billion, the worst single-month performance since launch; as of October 30, ETH ETF single-day net outflow was about $156 million, and the capital flow has not stabilized.
Aftermath of Binance hack: Since Binance resumed withdrawals, cumulative net outflow reached $4.72 billion, about 3% of platform assets; the platform has replenished about 95% of affected assets with its own funds, but customer funds are still withdrawing.
Macro environment pressure: US tech stocks turned down in the afternoon, the market is re-evaluating AI capital expenditure and returns; the upcoming US midterm elections also bring new policy expectation changes for risk assets.
Strong on-chain fundamentals: Ethereum ecosystem active addresses hit a record high (15.4M), Gas fees are at historic lows (about 10.4 Gwei), RWA market exceeds $38 billion, JPMorgan has expanded JPM Coin to Ethereum.
Resistance above: $2,370–$2,390; if volume increases and price stands back above, the rebound will be more convincing.
Support below: $2,160–$2,200 (200-day moving average about $2,158); if broken, $1,950 may be tested
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Funding rate turns negative, ETH hides a bearish trap 📉
$ETH funding rate hits -0.0000299 /8h, shorts are crowded, the apparent selling pressure seems to have been digested, and the price has a slight rebound.
But here is a core point easily overlooked: Ethereum spot ETF hit a record in October, with about $1.6 billion outflow in a single month, and the outflow trend is forming.
Compared to a short squeeze driven by crowded shorts, the probability of spot buying power fading is higher, making the likelihood of ETH continuing a slow bearish decline greater.Scared because I shorted at 87000, 84000, 80000, and 78500?
Don't worry! I'm going long now! Publicly setting up BTC long positions!
Why enter long at 72888? Technically, 72888 is a strong chip concentration zone after an extremely deep drop. BTC has been hammered down from the 80,000 level; if it really reaches around 72,000, it means panic sellers have been completely wiped out, and leveraged longs are basically annihilated. Buying chips with losses at this position has minimal defense space, maximizing the risk-reward ratio.
Looking at the capital and bottom cards: Strategy's overall position cost is about $75,446. If the price drops to 72,888, it means breaking through the world's largest long position defense line. Big funds will definitely use spot holdings to defend in this deep water zone to protect the market, and will never allow the price to collapse easily. Plus, after continuous sharp drops, short-term technical indicators are severely oversold, and a retaliatory rebound repair could come at any time.
Order placement method is fixed: place a long order directly at 72888; if it continues to dip to 72500, add another position. Stop loss is strictly set below 71500; a valid break means the large-scale structure has completely collapsed, so unconditionally admit defeat and exit, never hold the position. The first target is 74500; if broken, look to 75500 or even 76800. At 74500, close most of the position to lock in profits, and move the stop loss up for the remaining.
If the price hasn't reached the position, just hold cash and watch the show. Wait for that big bloody bearish candle to break through, then we enter to take profits. Follow the discipline. $BTC At the same price level, some people have already worn down a large portion of their principal by going back and forth. Have you ever had that feeling: the price barely moves, but your account keeps shrinking? Just now, when reviewing the market situation, I noticed this detail and was stunned for a moment. A certain trader entered and exited the semiconductor and storage line seven times; the price basically remained the same as a few days ago, but the cumulative loss has already reached 26 million USD. Breaking it down is even more interesting: SOXL 4,897 units, opening price 81.6, unrealized loss of over a thousand dollars; xKORU 8,157 units, opening price 11.6, unrealized gain of over a thousand; SKHY 649 units, opening price 156.9, unrealized loss of about five hundred. None of these single trades are exaggerated, but after seven round trips, the numbers look like this. I stared at these lines for a long time because this is not a matter of directional judgment, but of timing and position sizing. The price returning to the starting point indicates the market has not moved in a one-sided trend; what is truly being consumed is the trader's volume and patience. Every entry and exit incurs costs, and every "try again" amplifies exposure. From the perspective of derivative structures, this repeated in-and-out often corresponds to amplified losses in leveraged products. SOXL, a triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF, suffers continuous erosion from volatility in a choppy market; even if the underlying index returns to its original level, the net asset value may not recover. The same applies to xKORU. This is not simply "wrong directional calls," but the product structure itself eats away in a sideways market. Thinking deeper, this case actually reflects a facet of the current risk appetite: people are willing to in the semi-conductorThe probability of the Democratic Party taking both houses exceeds 75%, and what Musk needs to guard against is not the stock price, but the hearings.
According to prediction markets, the probability of the Democratic Party simultaneously taking both the Senate and the House is about 76.5%. The US votes today, and the results will be clear by tomorrow morning Beijing time. Old Bull doesn't take sides on who wins or loses; he only watches Musk.
According to foreign media reports, Democratic lawmakers have long stated that if they take the House, they will investigate Musk's time at the Office of Government Efficiency, the contracts SpaceX signed with the government, and the clean energy subsidies Tesla has received. It was disclosed that Trump mentioned late Monday night Beijing time that he could preemptively pardon government staff if necessary. Speaking of Musk, he said this was just talk but that relevant people need protection.
Old Bull's interpretation: first distinguish which is emotion and which is the threshold. Hearings and subpoenas are emotional; they can last two years but cannot change the launch orders SpaceX has already signed. The real threshold is government contracts and subsidy money, which depends on how the subsequent appropriations are negotiated.
According to US stock market data, SPCX closed at 136.37 on Monday, and TSLA closed at 403.82; according to contract data, the two perpetual contracts are currently around 136.9 and 401.7 respectively, with no major moves ahead of the election.
The risk lies on the day the results come out; both stocks may first be driven by emotion for a while, and the noisier the news, the greater the volatility. The short-term long position on SPCX around 138.6 is still held as usual; Old Bull neither adds to the position nor opens a new one. The above is Old Bull's market notes before the vote, purely business, not politics. $BTC $ZEC $UNI 8th Anniversary, Founder Shares Five Sets of Data
On UNI's 8th anniversary, the founder shared several sets of data, containing a wealth of information.
1. The ratio of DEX to CEX trading volume has grown from 0 to 40%.
Decentralized exchanges are moving from the fringe to the mainstream; a 40% share is already a force that cannot be ignored.
2. UNI's spot trading volume is already equivalent to 31% of a certain exchange.
Hayden believes that if this number reaches 50%, UNI has the chance to become the world's largest trading venue.
3. In Q3 2026, there are 14,000 assets on Uniswap, with single-asset 30-day trading volumes exceeding $100,000.
This indicates that long-tail asset trading is very active, and UNI's position as the preferred platform for "new asset cold starts" remains solid.
4. Over the past approximately one and a half years, RWA trading on UNI has grown by 9,000%.
RWA (Real World Assets) is the hottest direction in this cycle; a 9000% increase shows UNI is rapidly capturing market share in tokenized asset trading.
5. Hooks on UNI v4 now account for 11% of protocol trading volume and are still growing rapidly.
The v4 Hook architecture is being adopted by more and more users; innovations like permissioned pools and dynamic fees are becoming Uniswap's new growth engines.
Eight years ago, the challenge was centralized exchanges.
Eight years later, the real opportunity to challenge lies in the trading infrastructure of traditional financial markets. 🔍 $504 million is still locked in the Optimism Bridge. What I want to check more is: has the "passage" of this bridge been affected? According to DefiLlama, its TVL has decreased over the week and is also dropping daily, but the material clearly states that fund inflows and outflows as well as price fluctuations can cause changes.
Don't rush to conclusions. I think for ordinary cross-chain users, whether withdrawals are smooth is more important than the ranking of locked assets.
An interesting detail here: the material provides the scale of funds but does not give withdrawal times, so the TVL decline cannot be directly judged as a problem with the bridge.
This is my speculation: if funds are indeed continuously withdrawing and withdrawals are slowing down, then this news might turn from emotional noise into a warning about user experience. I will continue to monitor withdrawal status and times, first separating the lines of "less money" and "bridge not working well."Three Scenario Trading Map for Both Chambers
JPMorgan provides probabilities: Democrats sweep both chambers at 66%, Republicans hold both chambers at only 7%. A low probability does not mean little market impact—Republicans holding both chambers is actually most favorable for US stocks.
The reason lies in policy continuity. If Republicans retain both chambers, AI infrastructure, deregulation of energy, and tax cut momentum will likely continue, congressional investigation risks will decrease, and uncertainty premiums will quickly recede. JPMorgan expects the S&P to rise 1%–1.25%. Corresponding actions: S&P target 7600–7700, BTC surges to 80,000, Brent crude oil falls back near 90, gold falls back to 3800–3900, buy on dips in tech infrastructure and energy.
If Democrats sweep, investigation authority and expectations for AI and crypto regulation will intensify, friction with the Trump administration will escalate, and volatility will likely remain high. The S&P may retest 7300–7400, BTC may fall below 75,000, Brent crude oil may surge above 100, gold may rise to 4100.
A divided Congress is a middle ground: executive policies are hard to be completely overturned, but regulatory and investigation intensity will be between the two extremes, with the market focusing more on policy tug-of-war.
Regardless of the outcome, the real pricing factor is not who shouts the loudest, but how control changes regulation, investigation, and policy rhythm. Scenario simulation, not investment advice.
$BTC $BZ $XAU
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The U.S. midterm elections have entered a critical phase, and JPMorgan Chase has simulated four possible power scenarios for Congress's future. Notably, the most likely outcome does not necessarily mean the strongest market reaction. According to prediction market data as of November 1, the implied probability of the Democrats controlling both the House and Senate is about 66%, Democrats winning the House while Republicans hold the Senate is about 26%, Republicans holding both chambers is about 7%, and Republicans controlling the House with Democrats controlling the Senate is only about 1%. JPMorgan Chase expects the potential performance of the S&P 500 under these four scenarios to be: Democrats control both chambers: -0.25% to +0.5%. The market may worry about AI regulation and data center policies, but the president's veto power is an important constraint. Democrats control the House, Republicans control the Senate: +0.5% to +1%. Divided power may limit major policy advances, which the market might view as a short-term positive. Republicans hold both chambers: +1% to +1.25%. Policy continuity is stronger, but expanding fiscal deficits may push up long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Republicans control the House, Democrats control the Senate: +0.25% to +0.75%. Budget battles and government shutdown risks may re-enter the market's focus. What insights does this data offer for the crypto market? First, pay attention to U.S. Treasury yields. Changes in fiscal spending expectations may affect long-term rates, thereby altering dollar liquidity and risk asset valuations. Second, watch AI tech stocks. If AI investment sentiment cools, it may transmit to the crypto market through the Nasdaq and overall risk appetite. Third, focuFirst, consider the worst-case scenario: my concern is not that no one visits the website, but that someone reads "targeted at the public sector" as "government endorsement," and then takes risks based on that expectation. Having done risk control, I am quite sensitive to this kind of cognitive leap.
The Ethereum Foundation has launched a dedicated website for the public sector, aimed at governments, multilateral organizations, NGOs, and other public welfare institutions. It provides accessible explanations of Ethereum, real-world case studies, and practical resources, introducing its potential as digital public infrastructure.
My judgment is that this helps the public sector understand Ethereum, but it is insufficient to prove new demand. ⚠️ There are two risks: presenting potential does not equal a commitment to adoption by institutions; existing cases cannot directly prove replication across different organizations, as compliance requirements and implementation conditions remain uncertain.
For ordinary people, my risk control advice is to separately record "confirmed facts" and "personal speculation." I will continue to look for concrete evidence of adoption and not substitute dissemination progress for actual implementation progress.*Institutions have exited, retail investors are taking over*
ETF: Outflow of 643 million on October 30 → Only 6.7 million returned by November 2, BlackRock 0
Attitude: No movement is an attitude
Retail investors: BTC long-short ratio 2.65, ETH 2.68, desperately opening longs
Institutions withdraw, retail rush in → Who is the fuel?Satellites can cover the entire US, yet SpaceX lacks ground stations 🤨🤨
Washington Post: Musk is reportedly discussing acquiring Boost Mobile or borrowing its network (unconfirmed).
Boost has 7.4 million, Starlink 13.6 million, and the three major carriers each have over 100 million.
But Boost's network rents from AT&T and T-Mobile, both of which have previously rejected Musk.
$SPCX intraday +5.4%, closed only +1.2%.
Challenging carriers by first borrowing their towers?
$SPCX Market Notes: $ZEC Catching Up on Decline, $HYPE Unstaking, and $CAP Unlocking Rhythm
This morning, ZEC saw a significant drop, once nearing the 1100 mark. Given BTC's continuous weakness, this is not surprising: previously, ZEC's actual price did not decline in sync, and now it seems like the start of a catch-up drop, with downward pressure still not to be underestimated.
Regarding HYPE, there has been a notable amount of tokens unstaked on-chain, requiring close monitoring to see if these tokens will be restaked. If the purpose of unstaking is to release tokens, the potential selling pressure is considerable—over 2 million tokens flowing out at once is enough to cause a significant price dip. In the short term, the destination of these tokens should be closely watched.
CAP remains in a sideways consolidation. It is not on this month's unlocking list; the timing is more likely in January. Tokens with small circulating supply and high control often experience rapid price surges before unlocking, so be cautious of a rhythm shift.
Overall, the interplay of catch-up declines, unstaking, and unlocking lines means market sentiment remains fragile. This is just a market observation and should not be taken lightly.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Don't catch the flying knives! South Korean retail investors are aggressively buying $3 billion to bottom-fish SOXL, but where is the bottom?
Intel's earnings report caused a "nuclear explosion" with a single-day plunge of 28%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 7.2% breaking below the 200-day moving average! Coupled with ChangXin Memory challenging the AI storage narrative, the semiconductor sector is bleeding heavily.
Market reality:
On the 15-minute chart, SOXL was hammered from 82.93 down to 77.01, currently priced at 78.44. Moving averages are all in bearish alignment, MACD shows a death cross downward with volume increasing—this is a mass exit from stop-loss orders and forced liquidations, definitely not a low-volume gradual decline.
The most painful logic:
South Korean retail investors net bought $3 billion in October playing the "bottom-fishing god," but institutions showed a $386 million selling advantage. More critically, SOXL’s 3x daily reset mechanism means: on declines, passive deleveraging occurs; during sideways moves, continuous erosion happens. Playing SOXL perpetual contracts on OKX is like leverage on leverage; in a choppy market, time is never on the bulls' side.
Key levels:
77.4 is the short-term lifeline. If it doesn't hold, look for forced liquidation zone at 75.0-76.0; only above 78.0 can a rebound be discussed. Don't mistake pre-market green as confirmation of a bottom!
⚠️ The above does not constitute investment advice. Leverage stacking plus mechanism erosion means position management is paramount.
$SOXL $xKORU #闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13% An announcement usually contains only two lines: a certain exchange will launch OXY/USDT and PFE/USDT perpetual contracts tonight at 18:00 SGT. But behind these two lines lies a question—who is setting the price for this?
First, look at the action itself. Perpetual contracts are not spot listings; they don't require the project to have an actual circulating supply first, nor do they need market makers to establish spot depth. The exchange only needs to connect the index price and set the funding rate parameters for a contract pair to open. So these new perpetual launches are always faster than "a coin really being adopted by more people." The fact that $OXY and $PFE can be traded tonight indicates the exchange is willing to provide this tool, not that consensus on these two assets has been formed.
Next, consider the structure. After the contract goes live, the real determinants of profit and loss are not the underlying assets but three things usually omitted from announcements: the initial leverage cap, the funding rate range, and how thickly market makers are willing to post orders at the open. When these three are missing, the first hour's trading can be pushed around by very small capital; a price jump doesn't mean someone is opening a position, it just means the order book is thin.
Therefore, for new contracts like $OXY and $PFE, I tend to treat them as an "observation window" rather than an "opportunity window." The information contained in the opening jump is greater than the price itself—it tells you how deep the pool is and how many people are truly watching.
It's worth considering: when the cost of launching new contracts is this low, the expansion of contract numbers will continue to outpace real demand growth. Your attention might be the scarcest liquidity here.When I saw this message, my first reaction was: visible price VS actually being able to sell, the difference is not just a matter of a quoting interface. When the stock market is closed, the risk of collateralized lending does not take a holiday.
According to Chainlink, Aave Horizon uses perpetual contracts to provide weekend pricing for stock collateral. This dynamic reference price can reveal the decline in collateral value during non-trading periods, but it does not guarantee that seized assets have buyers to take over.
My judgment is: this is risk control catch-up, not liquidity clearance. Continuous quote updates can reduce the blind spot where collateral has dropped but is still valued at the old price; however, having a reference price does not equal having transaction depth. My speculation is that if weekend buyers are insufficient, then even if the risk is identified in time, disposal may still get stuck.
Therefore, I value "being able to sell" more than just "being able to see". When you evaluate this type of stock-collateralized lending, do you prioritize the weekend quoting mechanism or where the liquidation buyers come from? 1103 Review 🥃
This wave is really wearing people down.
$BTC has been hammered from 78800 down to around 76500, and ETH also dropped from 2318 to 2240. The rebound has basically had no strength; any slight pull-up is immediately pressed back down.
Right now, for BTC, watch the 76300-76500 range below, and for $ETH, watch 2235-2240—these are levels already touched today. If these hold, I think there will be some short-term recovery, but don’t rush to heavily buy the dip just because it’s dropped so much.
The most frustrating thing about this market is watching it drop a lot, feeling it should rebound, but every small rebound just grinds down further.
My current stance remains: don’t chase shorts, and don’t rush to bottom-fish.
Let the market find its own direction first.
If BTC can’t hold 76300, it might have to keep taking hits; conversely, if it can reclaim above 77000, at least it looks like it’s coming back to life.
The most important thing these days isn’t how much you make, but just don’t die before dawn. 😭Regarding the outflow of funds for $BNB, more data may be needed to make a judgment.
Within a few hours after the withdrawal function was restored, it is reported that only about $2.5 billion was withdrawn, accounting for less than 2% of Binance's custodial assets.
This at least indicates that, at present, it is not possible to conclude a solvency crisis on the platform based solely on net outflow data.
Next, continue to monitor the flow of funds and official reserve proofs.
$BTC A whale lost $5.84 million in 4 days, teaching us a lesson
$ZEC $BTC
Today, there was a case on-chain worth printing out and posting on the wall:
A whale spent $31.78 million over the past 4 days to buy 25,002 ZEC at an average price of $1,271; at the same time, he opened a long position of 18,910 ZEC contracts at $1,378.
This morning, ZEC fell below $1,200, triggering stop-loss on all his contract positions, losing $2.58 million; the spot holdings are currently at an unrealized loss of $3.26 million — totaling $5.84 million, wiped out overnight down to the waist.
Note, this is not a retail trader. Someone who can put up $31.78 million in cash plus heavy contract positions has capital and information channels far beyond ordinary people. If even he loses like this, it speaks volumes about how tough this market is.
Let's review: where did he go wrong?
First, he didn’t buy value, but the tail end of a narrative. ZEC has risen 142% year-to-date, 223% in six months, soaring from a 52-week low of $188 to $1,683. The $1,271 average price was bought at the tail end of a 6x rally. Buying into a 6x rally with "optimism about privacy coin narrative" is not faith, it’s hindsight faith.
Second, opening both spot and contract longs doubles the mistake. If the direction is right, profits double; if wrong, the wounds are salted. His contract entry price ($1,378) was 8% higher than the spot average price — a typical case of adding positions during a rise, raising the cost basis. A drop below $1,200 was enough to wipe out the leveraged portion.
Third, the stop-loss execution was decisive — this actually saved the remainder of his capital. Exiting contracts with a $2.58 million loss without stubbornly holding to liquidation shows discipline. The real problem was the quality of the entry decision, not the exit.
The broader significance of this case
Whether in US stocks or crypto, the script for chasing highs is the same: afraid to buy after a 3x rise, finally convinced after a 6x rise, then buying at the most crowded narrative moment. ZEC has now retraced nearly 30% from its 52-week high of $1,683, and today it dropped another 6%-9% in a single day — crowded trades always clear out fast and hard.
I have one rule for myself: for any asset, if the pullback from the high is less than 30%, don’t talk about "value," only "volatility." The former requires research, the latter discipline; mixing them is gambling.
What to watch next for ZEC?
- The support strength around $1,100-$1,200: this is the consolidation platform in the current rally; a break below would indicate a worsening mid-term trend
- Whether the privacy narrative’s heat is fading: XMR is still rising today, but ZEC is falling; internal divergence often signals the end of a rally
- Don’t forget that a week ago it was still at $1,280 being hailed as "value returning" by the whole network — market sentiment turns faster than you can adjust your positions
The market gives free lessons every day; today’s $5.84 million tuition was paid by the whale for us.
Do you know any examples of "heavy buying at the end of a rally" around you? Share in the comments to warn future traders.
(Personal opinion, not investment advice.)
#ZEC #Whale #TradingDiscipline #MarketAnalysis4.5 for 1. The terms are straightforward.
Marvell is acquiring Lumentum in an all-stock deal, exchanging 4.5 shares of MRVL for each share of LITE. Official announcement states: implied enterprise value of $115 billion, equivalent to about $1132 per share, a premium of approximately 23.9% over prior rumors. On paper, it looks quite attractive.
The market disagrees.
In the US stock market, LITE closed down 18.59%, MRVL down about 12.7%. Both the acquired and the acquirer stocks fell. This combination is quite rare.
OKX tokenized stocks also plunged simultaneously. xLITE current price 687.85, down about 21.05% in 24h, lowest touched 681.04. xMRVL at 170.92, down about 15.72%.
The key lies in the words "all-stock." The value of LITE basically depends on MRVL's performance. If MRVL weakens, the exchange value shrinks accordingly.
Calculating: 4.5 × 170.92 ≈ 769.1. xLITE at 687.85 is about 10.6% below this implied price.
This 10% price gap is not given away for free. The transaction is expected to complete in the first half of 2028, still needing shareholder and regulatory approvals. The road is long, so a discount is necessary.
Do you think this 10% price gap is pricing in approval risk, or does the market simply not believe in this price at all?
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 $xLITE $xMRVL First, I calculated a tolerance account: to gain a bit more market flexibility, how much monitoring time must be paid, and how much volatility can be tolerated? These costs are hard to quantify, so I prefer to have less room for imagination and be more stable.
According to SoSoValue data, on November 2nd Eastern Time, the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $140 million, marking six consecutive days of net outflows. Among them, BlackRock's ETHA had a net outflow of $138 million, while Morgan Stanley's MSSE had a net inflow of $3.1511 million. This account shows that the outflow on that day was highly concentrated, and not all products were withdrawing funds.
My judgment is short-term bearish, but this cannot be directly equated with an overall $ETH demand downturn: continuous outflows mean that the ETF funding support is weak, and the differentiation among products indicates it cannot be generalized. I would choose to wait and not guess a reversal based on this data. If outflows continue, will you play it safe and wait for funds to return, or are you willing to bear volatility and bet on an early turnaround?Funds are flowing out of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold... but they haven't left the market!
In the last five trading days of October, there was a significant reversal in fund flows:
Winning groups:
• Small caps: +37
• Utilities: +36
• Energy: +35
• Banks: +20
Groups under pressure:
• $ETH : -52
• $BTC : -30
• Nasdaq 100 Index: -29
• $XAU : -28
What happened?
With the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, the market is starting to consider the possibility of rate hikes.
WTI crude oil prices broke above $104 per barrel, reigniting inflation concerns.
Technicals are weakening, and cryptocurrencies are facing pressure from security vulnerabilities and a liquidation wave worth about $1.5 billion.
Important lesson: Don’t try to buy just because asset prices have dropped sharply!
Look for fund flows, seek relatively strong assets, and wait for clear risk entry points.
The market is always full of opportunities, but not all opportunities are where the crowd is focused.
If you had to choose now, would you follow the fund flows into energy and banking, or patiently wait for Bitcoin and Ethereum to recover? The leaderboard still shows #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化, but the latest market situation has changed a bit: On November 2, gold rebounded, while oil prices weakened due to negotiation expectations.
This combination is worth pondering. Intuitively, with eased geopolitical tensions, the safe-haven demand for gold should decrease; however, falling energy prices may also ease inflationary pressure, prompting investors to reassess how long high interest rates will persist.
The same news, through different channels, affects gold in ways that may not be consistent. Reduced war risk is one factor, while changes in interest rate expectations are another.
This is also why I dislike forcing every daily rise or fall in gold into a safe-haven narrative. Last week's decline was influenced by positions and liquidity, while this week's rebound is compounded by energy and policy expectations. Behind the price, there are often multiple forces at play.
But a single rebound does not prove the trend has been restored. Whether oil prices can continue to fall and how real interest rates change still need observation. Temporary easing of energy pressure does not guarantee other sources of inflation will cool down simultaneously.
My understanding of gold's recent performance is that the market is beginning to reassess different risks. Assets that were sold together before may not continue to rise and fall together later.
The market has changed, and explanations should adjust to new facts accordingly. Judgments made yesterday cannot simply be reissued today with a different price.
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 🔷 CryptoX-ray #27: $TRX - $628M hacked through the network
There are $94.4B stablecoins on the network, and fees of $23.8M over 30 days are burned, holders are not paid. Emission continues.
Red flag: 612.7M USDT and 46.4M TRX were withdrawn from the hacked exchange through TRON. This does not prove network vulnerabilities.
Verdict: the network is strong, the token is indirect. Waiting for data on burning and ETF flows. Prepared for −30%.
Is a token needed for stablecoins? 👇BTC重新站到78,355，76,265还压在下面。这次上涨是反弹起点，还是下跌中的一次反抽？ 一、新闻。BTC报78,355.7美元，24小时涨0.48%、近一周跌2.58%；20日低点为76,265.2美元，20日高点仍是84,899.6美元。此前跌破的79,220目前仍未完全收回。市场同时消化币安提款恢复、约58亿美元净流出以及黑客资金转移受阻的消息。 二、资金影响。BTC ETF最新单日净流入3,470万美元，5日净流入4.138亿美元，10日净流入1.769亿美元。美元指数报101.92、日内涨0.04%，黄金涨0.42%，恐惧贪婪指数从34升到37。风险偏好有所修复，但资金流入正在收窄，外部宏观也没有形成明确顺风。 三、BTC含义。价格从低点回升只能证明卖压暂时减弱，还不能证明趋势反转。真正的确认要同时看到两点：BTC日线重新站回79,220，并且ETF净流入继续为正。若反弹在79,220附近受阻，76,265会再次成为市场测试的低点；只有低点抬高、关键位收回，反弹才会升级为修复。 四、观察指标。我接下来盯四个指标：一是76,265能否继续守住；二是日线能否收回79,220Net outflows for 6 consecutive days—what comes to my mind isn’t "institutions smashing the door and running," but rather funds clocking in daily, with the attendance sheet showing just one word: withdraw. Others accumulate annual leave at work; ETFs accumulate suspense at work 😂
This time, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $140 million, with BlackRock having the largest outflow, though some products had net inflows. What concerns me more is the continuity of the outflows: single-day data might be portfolio rebalancing, but continuous outflows at least indicate that net demand through this channel hasn’t recovered yet. I judge this as a short-term bearish sentiment for $ETH, but it can’t be directly equated to institutions collectively being bearish; ETF funds don’t represent the entire Ethereum market.
My speculation is, if the outflows continue, the market’s concerns about new absorption will grow heavier. Which side are you on: wait until the continuous outflows end to reassess demand, or place more emphasis on on-chain activity—the ETF attendance sheet, is it a core subject or an elective?#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
On the eve of Circle's earnings report, USDC is the hidden ace! Will CRCL see a valuation re-rating?
If traditional banks make money through deposits and loans, Circle is exploring a new digital finance business model: putting the dollar to work on the blockchain, then generating income through reserve yields and financial services.
This is the most noteworthy aspect of USDC!
In Q2, Circle's reserve income reached $668 million, a 5% year-over-year increase; other income reached $34 million, a 41% year-over-year increase. This means the company is not entirely dependent on USDC reserve interest, and subscription and service businesses are gradually growing.
Of course, interest rate changes remain an important variable. If rates decline in the future, reserve yields may be squeezed. Therefore, whether payment services can take over will determine Circle's future growth potential.
I believe what’s truly worth looking forward to is not how big USDC is today, but how many enterprises will be willing to use it for cross-border settlement and daily payments in the future. If the digital dollar becomes financial infrastructure, Circle’s potential naturally goes beyond stablecoins! $USDC A loss of 5.84 million! A whale heavily invested in ZEC, long positions brutally wiped out 💥
ZEC plunged nearly 9% today, a big player went long on both spot and futures, and got completely wiped out.
✅ Spot side: Bought 25,002 coins over four days with 31.78 million U, cost 1271U each, currently floating a loss of 3.26 million
✅ Futures side: Simultaneously went long 18,910 coins on Hyper at 1378U cost, triggered full liquidation after dropping below 1200 at dawn, losing another 2.58 million
Holding spot with floating losses while cutting losses on futures, the dual long strategy met a rapid pullback, causing maximum damage.
High leverage + heavy positions in the same coin, once the market turns, risk comes fast.When I saw it, I was reminded of my early mistake when I first entered the space: putting several coins under the same headline and assuming their situations were similar. Now I try to look at them separately first, without rushing to draw conclusions about the entire sector 🤔
According to SoSoValue data, on November 2nd Eastern US time, the US XRP, HYPE, and ZEC spot ETFs had net outflows of $529,500, $2,859,800, and $3,632,400 respectively, totaling $7,021,700. On that day, only Canary's XRPC recorded a net outflow for XRP.
My understanding is that this is more like a snapshot of funds that needs to be read separately, but I’m not sure if that’s correct. The outflows are mainly concentrated in HYPE and ZEC, so the pressure can’t be evenly distributed among the three; XRP only had one fund outflow, which is not enough to indicate a full retreat. Also, without comparing their respective asset sizes, the amount doesn’t equal outflow intensity. I haven’t figured out a fair way to compare yet, so I will pay attention to each one's outflow ratio going forward and remind myself not to just focus on the total number.$ZEC Why has ZEC dropped so sharply? Is it just because of the hacker incident? It's really like getting shot while lying down!
ZEC and XMR both belong to privacy coins. When news broke that hackers chose privacy coins to launder money, funds directly caused concern for the entire privacy sector.
There are worries about a new round of delisting and trading restrictions on exchanges, leading traders to flee early to avoid regulatory risks, resulting in collective sell-offs.
ZEC itself has a history of trust scars.
Previously, the Orchard privacy pool vulnerability incident left a deep psychological shadow on ZEC: the market has always worried about the existence of unverifiable counterfeit tokens. Many large holders and well-known traders have already chosen to reduce positions and exit. The foundation itself is relatively fragile, so any disturbance is more likely to trigger a dump.
Internal governance uncertainty.
Changes in the project development team and governance continuously make the market doubt the long-term development and maintenance capabilities. Compared to XMR, many funds feel that ZEC carries higher risk and prioritize abandoning ZEC when negative news arrives.#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $UNITREE Due to the high funding fees, I just closed my position on Unitree Robotics. It seems shorting is not profitable. If I had held the short positions from a few days ago until now, the price hasn't changed much, but most of the principal would have been eroded, so shorts are really suffering. If you keep holding short positions at this level, you're afraid that after a few more days of volatility, the funding fees will eat up your principal. This is even more painful than losing on a pump.Market rebounds triggered by geopolitical news are often just short-term fluctuations rather than trend reversals. After news of talks with Iran emerged, the crypto market quickly rebounded, and Bitcoin ($BTC) rallies triggered leveraged short squeezes, causing many short sellers to waver in their positions. However, the driving logic behind this rally is relatively weak. Such news only changes short-term volatility distribution and cannot reprice Bitcoin's sustained structural buying. Traders are facing a reflexive market reaction to the news, which is a secondary trading opportunity and does not indicate a change in market direction. For position management, when facing a squeeze driven by such news, it is more appropriate to rely on stop-losses to maintain the original judgment rather than abandoning the view outright. Ethereum ($ETH) is also within this logic. Shorts established around 2300 target 2100, betting that relative weakness will continue amid noisy market action rather than speculating on a single news cycle. If the rebound continues to strengthen, it means the initial position was wrong; if it only captures short-term liquidity, it means the entry timing was too early. Levels like Bitcoin at 74000 should only be considered potential observation points, not guaranteed targets. One notable aspect of this rally is its asymmetry: news shocks quickly affect leveraged traders, but the spot market structure itself remains unchanged. The same news can increase volatility but has no impact on the medium- to long-term trend. Going forward, it is necessary to continuously observe whether recurring geopolitical news will gradually break this state and turn short-term noise into Bitcoin ($BTC)#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
USDC's scale is growing, but Circle's profits may not surge accordingly! The CRCL earnings report this time needs to reveal a truth.
When investing in Circle, don't just focus on USDC's circulation! Because a large scale doesn't necessarily mean large profits, just like a restaurant with daily queues doesn't mean the owner counts money until their hands are sore every day.
In Q2, Circle's reserve income reached $668 million, but distribution, trading, and other costs were as high as $412 million. This means that while revenue grows, costs also need serious scrutiny.
Especially in USDC's ecosystem distribution partnerships, Circle needs to share economic benefits with key platforms. The larger the scale, the more revenue it might bring, but cooperation costs may also increase.
On the November 4 earnings report, what I most want to see is not how much USDC grows, but how much of every additional dollar of revenue the company ultimately retains.
My view is that Circle has long-term growth potential, but a great business model must withstand the test of profit margins. Investing can be about dreams, but earnings reports must be about numbers! After all, the stock market is never short of stories, but it lacks profits that can be consistently delivered. $USDC Calculating, SBI's crypto asset business had a pre-tax loss in the past six months about 10.9 times that of the same period last year. What concerns me more is this amplification rather than the revenue decline itself: the business scale shrank, but the loss clearly expanded, which makes me more cautious than just looking at revenue alone.
① The pre-tax loss expanded from ¥147 million to ¥1.595 billion, an increase of ¥1.448 billion. Since the original loss base was small, the multiple looks scary, so I consider the additional loss amount together rather than using a single multiple to dramatize the entire industry.
② Revenue for the same period was ¥23.083 billion, which translates to about ¥6.9 pre-tax loss per ¥100 revenue. This is not a cost ratio, but it helps me quantify: the revenue scale still exists, but that doesn't mean this business can generate profit yet.
③ Revenue declined 30.1% year-on-year, corresponding to the operating period from April to September 2026. The combination of shrinking revenue and expanding loss leads me to judge that profitability is under pressure, but since the data doesn't provide expense breakdowns, I cannot directly conclude it is due to cost overruns.
My judgment is that this is negative for SBI's own crypto business profitability expectations, but not enough to define the entire sector. If revenue rebounds later but losses do not narrow, then I will be more worried about its ability to convert to profit; this is my speculation. Going forward, I will focus on whether revenue can truly turn into profit. #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Apple's Q4 revenue exceeded expectations, but next quarter's gross margin guidance is under pressure. This earnings report really captures the current awkwardness in the tech world.
On the surface, the numbers look great: revenue of 114.5 billion, iPhone sales at 57.6 billion, both surpassing expectations. The new models are indeed selling well.
But the capital market is not buying it at all. What's the problem? Look at the last sentence: next quarter's gross margin guidance is only 45%-46%, below expectations.
Why can't they hold up? The chart explains it clearly with two reasons: rising prices of storage chips and AI service costs.
This ties directly into the logic loop we've been discussing. AI giants have absorbed all production capacity, causing storage prices to skyrocket. Now even Apple, a giant with strong pricing power and the ability to squeeze its supply chain to the extreme, is having its profit margins squeezed hard. On top of that, the cost of building AI infrastructure is so high that even Apple is struggling.
In short, this is called backlash. The profits upstream in the industry chain are completely eaten up by AI, and downstream hardware giants have to swallow the bitter pill themselves. The entire market faces huge capital and cost pressures.
Under this macro high pressure, global capital is holding firm. The crypto market's big coins are the same—no money is coming in, so they can only grind at the bottom. Don't make rash moves, stay steady. $AAPL Using perpetual contracts to price stock collateral over the weekend, I thought about bookkeeping in daily life: updating the ledger frequently doesn't mean you have more cash on hand. When people retire and then learn about digital assets, I tend to first ask, does the new tool add convenience but also shift some responsibility onto the user?
Chainlink said Aave Horizon adopted this approach; the reference price can reveal the drop in collateral value during market closures but does not guarantee that seized assets will be taken over by someone. I think this news is significant; the change is that borrowers' weekends might no longer be idle. My speculation is, if the weekend reference price is included in risk control assessments, then the collateral risk that was originally only monitored when the market opens may need to be addressed in advance.
Young friends, don't mistake "prices available anytime" for "less to worry about." If you really use stocks as collateral for loans, can you accept keeping an eye on collateral status over the weekend, or would you rather borrow a bit less to give yourself some rest?Funds are switching sides, but what’s really worth watching is not who’s rising the fastest, but who has the ability to catch this spillover. $HYPE has the most solid support, with market share and TVL rising in sync, but a significant portion of its buybacks remain in agent accounts and are not truly burned, so the circulating supply hasn’t actually shrunk. This means the recent overhype will suppress the price; an increase in share doesn’t mean you can get excited blindly. This is exactly where the market is most prone to misjudgment: mistaking "strongest narrative" for "healthiest structure." $HYPE is the biggest beneficiary of this round of diffusion, but the strength of benefits and price elasticity are two different things—the former has been verified by data, the latter depends on changes in the real circulating supply. The real signal confirming the bullish logic is when the buyback path shifts from agent accounts to on-chain verifiable burns, not another round of emotional price pumping. $ASTER is pursuing a product iteration strategy to grab market share, relying on mechanisms like HIP-3 to reduce fees and attract new markets, trying to carve out territory under Hyperliquid’s shadow. But with the registration window open until November 28, potential selling pressure hasn’t yet dissipated, and TVL has dropped significantly from its peak. It wants to catch funds, but its token structure and registration phase make it the hardest to support. $UNI’s support method is the most stable. It is the main AMM of Robinhood Chain; v2/v3/v4 and UniswapX are all online. When US stock users want to enter Binance compliantly, funds will flow directly into Uniswap’s pools. It is catching traditional users POL continues to experience weak fluctuations. Polygon remains one of the key narratives for Ethereum scaling and enterprise collaboration, but the current market valuation logic for Layer 2 increasingly emphasizes actual usage, fee revenue, and ecosystem capital retention. The value capture expectations following POL's upgrade from MATIC still require time to be digested, and short-term funds are relatively cautious. Without new ecosystem catalysts, the trend may continue to follow the broader market; if trading volume remains sluggish, the sustainability of any rebound should also be discounted. $POLSeeing headlines about Ethereum fund outflows, I get a bit of a familiar feeling from the last cycle: whenever the market faces pressure, people tend to withdraw funds and directly translate that as "institutions are quitting." But now, when I see such news, I first hold off on conclusions and break down where the money is actually going.
According to Trader T data, yesterday Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $139.75 million, with BlackRock's ETHA seeing a net outflow of $138.3 million and ETHB a net outflow of $4.6 million. Morgan Stanley's MSSE was the only product with a net inflow that day, bringing in $3.15 million.
This time, we can't just apply the emotional reading from the last cycle; product-level details are crucial. The outflow scale of ETHA is close to the overall net outflow, indicating that this report is heavily influenced by a single product and cannot be directly interpreted as all institutions retreating in unison; the reverse inflow in MSSE also shows that fund directions are not uniform.
My judgment is that this is short-term negative for $ETH's funding, but it's still too early to confirm a cycle shift based on this. Single-day net outflows reflect the day's subscription and redemption results and do not explain the motivation behind the funds. If multiple products continue to have synchronized outflows later, then I would be more concerned about demand, rather than just focusing on one day's big numbers.
Do veteran players have the same familiar feeling? When encountering such highly concentrated outflows in a single product, do you pay more attention to the total amount or whether it spreads to other products in the following days?