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#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Tonight (pre-market Beijing time), Circle is releasing its earnings report, which is essentially a report card for the stablecoin sector.
Don't be fooled by the chart showing USDC circulation expanding—that's just surface level. The key is in the latter part: reserve income, distribution costs, and profitability.
Simply put, Circle's business relies on earning interest from U.S. Treasury bonds. The Federal Reserve is stubbornly holding high interest rates, so theoretically, Circle should be comfortably earning interest. But the problem lies in distribution costs—they have to pay a large sum to channels like Coinbase. The real profit that ends up in their own pocket is the core issue.
What does this have to do with BTC? Very direct.
Look at the current macro environment: the Democrats just took both houses, regulatory pressure is looming, and tonight there's the big non-farm payrolls report. BTC is struggling around 76,000.
If Circle's earnings show that the USDC supply hasn't really grown, or profits are completely eaten up by distribution costs, it means no new incremental funds are coming in off-exchange; everyone is just watching.
If even a must-have business like stablecoins is struggling to grow, it will be even harder for BTC to have an independent rally.
From a trading perspective, don't bet on a one-sided move from the earnings report. Regardless of performance, the current macro chaos is the key driver for BTC. Hold your ammo, wait for tonight's non-farm payrolls and this wave of earnings sentiment to settle, then confirm support on a pullback before making a move. Stay steady. $BTC The US military started as early as Wednesday, three aircraft carriers have already been deployed in the Middle East, and one of them has to return to port at the beginning of the month — this time window is too narrow to be a coincidence, yet the market is still betting with the old script. The real risk is not the war itself, but the moment you subconsciously buy $BTC. Past rounds of geopolitical conflicts have repeatedly proven: $BTC is not digital gold, but a high-beta cousin of the Nasdaq. When the panic index soars, it and $ETH are often the first to be sold off to exchange for liquidity, not a safe haven where funds rush in. Retail investors’ muscle memory is "buy safe havens when trouble arises," but recent years’ market trends have torn this textbook to shreds — when risk appetite contracts, crypto assets are the first to be liquidated, not the last fortress. What’s different this time is the pace. Starting right after the election, with a very short aircraft carrier deployment window, indicates decision-makers do not intend to give the market time to digest. This "quick strike" structure is the least friendly to risk assets: no buffer period, no expectation management, only sudden volatility spikes. $BTC’s performance in such an environment historically resembles a highly liquid risk asset rather than a store of value. What really deserves attention are US Treasuries and gold. Geopolitical risk is an event-driven shock, not a reason to increase positions. If you must look for signals in this window, watch whether $BTC can hold key support amid panic — if it can’t, it means it’s once again playing the role of an ATM; if it can, then a narrative shift can be discussed. But don’t mistake "possible" for "already." One sentence to remember: war is not a buy signal, it’s a liquidity test. $BT $BCH IS +29.79% OVER 90 DAYS BUT -12.81% OVER 30. Now it's 276.20, up 0.49% today, above the 263.36 chart low. I see a bounce, not confirmation. Strong long-term numbers can mask weak short-term momentum.
Which matters more for BCH now: 90-day strength or 30-day weakness?Anthropic's third-quarter revenue was about $17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1127%. This growth rate is astonishing, but in the same quarter, the company recorded an operating loss of about $567 million, whereas in the second quarter it had an operating profit of about $974 million.
I think this set of changes is more valuable for judgment than focusing solely on the huge net loss.
The net loss includes non-cash adjustments related to the valuation of financing instruments, so it cannot be entirely understood as cash burned in the quarter; the shift from profit to loss at the operating level indicates that cost pressures during expansion still genuinely exist.
Demand growth has been validated by revenue; the next question is whether the company can gradually stabilize profitability while providing more services and continuing R&D.
High valuations ultimately need to be supported by future profits. The larger the revenue base, the harder it is to maintain extremely high growth rates, and investors must also assess how much profit the company can retain after growth slows.
I do not dismiss Anthropic's products and business progress just because of a quarterly loss.
However, the most exciting growth figures before the IPO are also the easiest to overshadow cost changes.
This update makes me more confident in demand but still patient regarding valuation. Customers willing to pay is already a big step; making each round of new revenue bring more stable operating returns will make this business more worthy of long-term holding.
#Anthropic营收暴增1127%，能否支撑IPO高估值？ The rate of linking reserve profits to USDC growth is 25%,
but reserve revenues increased by only 5%, which reduces the profit margin $OFC
On-chain token holder address analysis:
- The top 5 combined account for about 87.4%, indicating extremely high concentration.
- The 1st and 2nd are project-related addresses (bridge contract + multisig wallet), totaling over 66%.
- The 3rd is clearly the OKX hot wallet, mainly holding user-custodied OFC.
- The 4th and 5th also tend to be exchange-related addresses.
- The top 100 together hold about 98.65% of the tokens.
The tokens are basically with the project team and OKX. The easiest place for the project team to dump is OKX, which basically means they are treating us as bag holders After the $BTC election results were finalized, the market showed a typical pattern of initial suppression followed by a rebound. BTC once dipped below $76,000, then quickly recovered in a V-shape, surging to $77,883, and ultimately closed the day up 0.5%.
Options trading related to this election was very active, totaling $660 million, more than double the previous day’s volume. The capital structure showed a strong bullish sentiment, with $420 million spent on call option purchases versus only $105 million on sales, indicating intense long-side speculation. Nasdaq futures also staged a recovery, narrowing losses from over 2% at the lowest point to just a 0.3% decline, signaling a rapid rebound in risk asset sentiment.
However, there is a crucial divergence here: this rebound is mainly driven by options speculation, while the spot market has not kept pace. Outflows from spot ETFs continue, with a net outflow of $515 million last month, and in just the first two days of this month, outflows have nearly reached last month’s level.
In simple terms, currently only speculative options funds are chasing the rebound, while spot institutions continue to reduce positions, and fundamental capital has not returned. This structure requires extra caution; short-term sentiment recovery does not equal a trend reversal. Until the spot outflow turning point appears, the foundation of the rebound is not solid. #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ I used to be optimistic about $XRP as well, but recently there's been a very unusual phenomenon: wallets and on-chain transactions keep exploding, yet the coin price keeps weakening. Why is that?
The core reason is that business revenue and the token are completely decoupled. Ripple's institutional business revenue cannot be shared with XRP holders, and there is no stable buyback or burn to support the price floor. After the positive news has been repeatedly realized, without continuous cash flow narrative support, funds naturally are unwilling to actively push the price up.
Another token close to traditional finance, $BCH, has real merchant payment adoption, supported by BitPay and CoinGate, with merchant acceptance ranking among the top in crypto payments. But this story is too old; from the high of $654, it has retraced over 65%. Funds have all moved to AI public chains and new RWA tracks. Plus, the spot ETF progress is very slow, institutions have little willingness to allocate, so it is likely to grind repeatedly around 284, only waiting for ETF news to catalyze.
In the end, no matter how good the on-chain usage and real-world scenarios are, it does not necessarily mean the coin price will rise. XRP and BCH are the best examples.🔥 A long lower shadow appeared on the BTC daily chart! With election uncertainty fading, could the market rebound be a reversal signal?
🔵 BTC: This time the daily candle indeed formed a relatively long lower shadow. Although it didn't reach the expected 120-day moving average, support appeared around $76,000. Then, consecutive large bullish candles on the 15-minute chart quickly pushed the price back near $78,000, indicating strong short-term buying and short covering.
🔴 Macro: The US midterm election results are becoming clearer, political uncertainty is fading, and risk appetite has somewhat recovered. US stock futures and crypto markets have also rebounded in sync.
🟡 My judgment: This may be the start of short-term sentiment repair, but it cannot yet be directly considered a bull market reversal. The key for BTC is whether it can hold above $79,000 with volume. Only if it breaks through and confirms on a pullback will there be a chance to further open up rebound space.
⚠️ Risk reminder: If the rebound lacks spot capital support, it may still be just an oversold bounce. Do not chase the rally intraday; wait for a 15-minute pullback confirmation and strictly control stop losses.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH $SOL #美伊谈判未突破，油价为何单日跌逾7%？ Many people are puzzled: the negotiations clearly did not reach a substantive agreement, so why did crude oil prices plunge sharply? The core logic is not "conflict resolution," but rather the falsification of extreme blockade expectations, leading to a concentrated flight from geopolitical risk premiums.
A large part of this recent oil price surge was priced in as a "black swan premium" for a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and large-scale shutdowns. The market had previously priced in escalating conflict and a complete cutoff of the strait. Although this round of negotiations did not finalize an agreement, Qatar's mediation reopened communication channels; both sides have not closed diplomatic windows and have signaled willingness to continue dialogue and temporarily avoid full-scale war. Capital immediately judged that the most extreme blockade scenario would not occur in the short term, causing the panic premium that had been priced in early to be rapidly unwound, with bulls taking profits en masse, directly driving a deep drop in oil prices.
Additionally, constraints from the midterm elections play a role. After the Democrats took both chambers, it is significantly more difficult for Trump to launch a new large-scale military strike or request additional war funding, further reducing the probability of short-term conflict escalation and suppressing oil's risk-hedge valuation. $BTC $ETH $SNDK 🔥 BTC hits resistance breaking through $80,000! ETF outflows continue, corporate treasuries can't save the day either!
🔵 BTC: Spot ETFs have a cumulative net outflow of $1.042 billion, with total net assets dropping to $98.1 billion. Strategy bought 811 BTC, spending $65.5 million, while also using $208 million to repurchase preferred shares; Strive increased holdings by 124 BTC but relies on 15% annualized financing. Corporate accumulation does not equal large-scale new market inflows.
🔴 ETH: Funds remain under pressure, lacking independent buying support. If BTC weakens again, ETH may face greater correction pressure.
🟡 My judgment: BTC is currently oscillating between $77,000 and $80,000, with insufficient buying strength intraday. Sporadic corporate treasury accumulation temporarily fails to offset ETF outflow pressure. Without sustained spot capital inflows, $80,000 remains a key resistance.
📉 Trading approach: Do not blindly chase gains; focus on whether $80,000 can be firmly held with volume and if ETF funds turn back to net inflows.
⚠️ Risk reminder: Outflows do not necessarily mean prices will fall; beware of false breakouts and rapid rebounds. Control position sizes in contract trading and strictly set stop losses.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH $ZEC King Dong becomes lame king
Previously, the Polly Market predicted the Republican probability of holding the Senate at 24%, and holding the House at 6%
The probability of Republicans holding both chambers simultaneously is only 4.5%
The Democrats lead by 8.9 percentage points in the generic congressional ballot (voter preference for which party to elect congressional members); Trump's support rate is 38.4%
The Democrats need a net gain of 3 House seats and 4 Senate seats.
Losing the Senate is already decided, and holding the House may be a luxury.
The one who defeats King Dong is not the Democrats, but Iran and the Houthis.#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Within one hour, Coinbase Institutional's BTC flow opened bidirectionally.
First, 668 BTC, approximately 52.45 million USD, was transferred from Coinbase Institutional to an unknown wallet; at 17:24, 1086 BTC, about 85.08 million USD, was transferred back from another unknown wallet. One out and one in, net inflow of 418 BTC, roughly 32.63 million USD.
The volume is not large. 418 BTC added to the daily on-chain BTC flow is not a flood. What’s worth noting is the direction: large transfers out and even larger transfers in on the same day, both involving the same institutional custody channel, indicating this is not retail arbitrage but a rhythmic position adjustment.
However, a commonly confused point: transferring into an exchange does not mean immediate buying. Coins sitting in custody addresses could be prepared for sale, internal account transfers, collateral allocation, or market-making inventory replenishment; the direction can only be verified afterward. To claim institutions are bottom-fishing just by looking at these 1086 BTC is lazy.
My judgment leans neutral to slightly bullish: net inflow is positive, indicating increasing demand on the custody side; but the net amount of only 418 BTC does not support a trend-level narrative, more like a tentative position increase.
A question worth pondering: $BTC’s next move depends on the continuity of this flow line. Sustained net inflows over several days would signal a trend change; if outflows surpass inflows again, this 418 BTC is just noise.$MSFT
Is the increase in AI infrastructure supply good news for Microsoft or a new expenditure pressure?
AMD's latest announcement lists Microsoft as a partner. More supply options may improve deployment efficiency, but procurement ultimately depends on cloud service and product revenue recovery.
If the new capacity quickly turns into paid usage, the investment cycle is clearer; if depreciation and operating costs rise first and revenue realization is slow, cloud business growth may not prevent margin pressure. I am focusing on computing power utilization and cash recovery.$PEPE
0.0000051871. The highest point today appeared only for a few minutes, the 1-hour candle at 16:00 was also the largest volume of the day, with 439,000 contracts.
This morning I wrote that it was just a breath away from the previous high of 0.0000050272, at that time it was 0.0000049. Later it really broke through, closing at 0.00000509 after the break, now at 0.0000050846.
The two volumes after the breakout were 260,000 and 117,000, halving and halving again, the price did not touch back 0.0000052.
The fee rate is 0.01%, exactly on the benchmark, premium is still positive at 0.037%, perpetual is a bit more expensive than spot, bulls pay, but not heavily. Open interest is 43 million, 24-hour turnover is 280 million, one order of magnitude difference.
BONK +10.6%, SHIB +2.6%, DOGE +1.2%, meme coins really led the rise today. PEPE broke the previous high relying on that one spike, no one followed after.
The top was not smashed out, it collapsed by itself because the steps were not fully built. Let's watch first.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $SNDK
At noon, I said SanDisk formed a double top, and if 1075 breaks, don't buy. I was proven wrong.
At 11 o'clock, the 1-hour candle dropped to 1049.1, down 8.8%, the lowest of the day. Seven hours later, it rose back to 1145.4, up 9.2%, only ten yuan away from the 24-hour high of 1155.8.
Volume didn't quite cooperate. At 11, 60,000 contracts were sold off, at 13, 64,000 bought back, at 14, 70,000, then 32,000, 27,000, 43,000, 25,000, gradually thinning out, while the price hovered around 1145.
The fee rate was cut from 0.051% in the morning to 0.0285%. Open interest is 129 million, thicker than the 123 million in the morning. Bulls haven't fled, but no one is willing to pay extra to chase higher.
Changxin Storage is up 12% in 24 hours, KOSPI turned positive, the storage sector is not moving alone today.
If I was wrong, I was wrong, no excuses. The 1155 line is still there; whether it holds at tomorrow's open is more valuable than this sentence.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Let's calculate: the inverse volatility buffer for 10x leverage is roughly only 10%, which concerns me more than "going long $756,500." In the material, Core Trader 97 goes long 8,730.82 HYPE at a reference price of $86.65; I won't guess what opportunity he saw yet, but first let's see how much deviation this position can withstand.
① The nominal value is about $756,500; roughly estimating with 10x leverage, the initial margin corresponds to about $75,700. The nominal position is not the principal; the large amount doesn't mean a thick safety cushion.
② If the price moves 1% against the position, the loss is about $7,565, equivalent to 10% of the margin mentioned above. This is my simplified deduction: leverage amplifies not only gains but also narrows the room for error correction.
③ A 10% drop from $86.65 is about $77.99. This is just a risk scale calculated based on the reference price, not the actual liquidation price; the reference price cannot be directly treated as the average transaction price, as maintenance margin, fees, and additional margin calls will affect the result.
My judgment is that this long position tests risk management more; just looking at the amount doesn't reveal the odds of success. I will pay attention to whether the position and leverage increase together, reminding myself not to misinterpret a large position as confirmation of direction. Bitcoin was slammed down to 75,700 last night, then rose back to 78,300 within a few hours.
When it was falling, almost everyone who wanted to buy stayed away; the price was forcibly pushed down.
But the drop was so severe that the rebound was also quick.
Where did the money come from?
420 million worth of long orders rushed in, while shorts only had 105 million, a fourfold difference.
Short sellers were forced to cover, and had to buy back, resulting in a V-shaped market.
This V didn't bounce by itself; it was pushed up by money.
On the other side, ETF buyers withdrew 1.16 billion in three days.
While some were betting on whether the price would rise these days, others were actually selling coins.
Currently at 78,300, it is still 1,700 USD short of the 80,000 psychological level.
If it breaks through this level, then 81,300 can be discussed; if it fails, it will have to try 77,000 again.
But if it really breaks 80,000, the money in contracts alone won't be enough; real money buying coins must come in.
ETF is that source of money: as more people buy this fund, the fund company has to go to the market to buy coins back.
Only when it switches from selling to buying will this wave truly hold.Rising and rising, the leverage has been added back again
All three coins rise together, long-short ratio drops together, but positions all increase, with liquidations still mainly on short positions.
$BTC: New high, positions increased
Current price $78,497, up 2.43% in 24 hours, high 78,520, low 75,734. Long-short ratio 1.93, 4 hours ago 2.30, decreasing. Positions about 2.76 billion U. Funding rate +0.0078%. In the last 86 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: shorts 806,000 U, longs 7,861 U.
$ETH: All liquidations are shorts
Current price $2,322.8, up 2.44% in 24 hours, high 2,329.33, low 2,226.55. Long-short ratio 1.72, 4 hours ago 2.06. Positions about 1.543 billion U. Funding rate +0.0086%. In the last 75 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: shorts 905,000 U, longs 0 U.
$SOL: Most crowded longs, highest funding rate
Current price $93.09, up 0.87% in 24 hours, high 93.95, low 89.88. Long-short ratio 3.21, 4 hours ago 3.38. Positions about 343 million U. Funding rate +0.0100%. In the last 351 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: shorts 431,000 U, longs 20,000 U.
Commentary: Long-short ratio down, leverage not down: positions all increase, funding rates all positive, longs are paying to carry the rally.
Summary: How long can paying to carry the rally last? Is it fuel for continued rise or the wick for the next squeeze? Watch if 78,520 holds steady
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The Democratic Party really took control of both chambers, Senate 51 to 49, and flipped the House
Trump directly entered a lame-duck state
The most immediate consequence might be the "death sentence" for the CLARITY Act
TD Cowen's conclusion is very straightforward: the probability of passing in the next two years is zero; if it’s not resolved before the new Congress opens in January next year, it has to start over
The Senate Banking Committee will most likely switch to Elizabeth Warren, and the House Financial Services Committee to Maxine Waters, both of whom are not friendly towards crypto
Today $BTC fell below 76,000 then rebounded, the panic index went from 26 back to 34, but it’s still in fear territory
On November 4, US spot ETFs had net outflows for the third consecutive day, losing $115.6 million
$BTC bounced back to 78,500 due to overselling, but ETFs continue to bleed
Next, it depends on how many times the 76,000 line can hold under outflow pressure
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The most telling signal in crypto tonight isn't a price print — it's the lopsided borrow book. Across three majors, traders are paying to borrow coins to go long at a scale that dwarfs short-side demand, and one leveraged participant just used that imbalance as a reason to walk away from most of their exposure. The raw numbers make the crowding plain. On $BTC, long-side coin borrowing sits at 1,524.93 versus just 69.67 borrowed to short — a roughly 22-to-1 tilt. $ETH shows about 15,900 coins borThe bank finally admitted it, but the amount of money is still not acknowledged.
French bank Crédit Mutuel Arkéa confirmed to CoinDesk that it was attacked; fraudulent transactions are now under control.
Bitquery on-chain data only confirms $108.8 million USDC flowed out from Kraken, Crypto.com, and OKX within 21 hours. The majority was converted to Ether because Ether has no issuer-controlled freeze switch.
The bank says customer interests are fully protected, some transactions have been suspended, and authorities have been notified, but it did not specify whether the lost assets were fiat or crypto, nor how much was lost.
The bank admits the attack but not the amount. On-chain traceable amounts and reported figures always differ. The key to recovering funds is not whether the bank admits it, but what form the money has been converted into.
#Arkea #Hack #ZachXBT #USDCThe midterm election results are out, and the Democrats have taken control of both the House and Senate. Bitcoin's reaction last night was typical: it first dropped to $75,618, the lowest since mid-September, then pulled back to around $78,000 a few hours later.
I noticed two details. First, the lowest point almost touched the 50-week moving average (about $75,700), which has been supporting the price since September; second, the total long liquidations across the network were about $288 million, which is not large. This indicates panic, but not to the level of a stampede.
My view: this feels more like the "boot dropping" moment and should not be taken as a reversal signal. The uncertainty has disappeared, but regulatory bills will most likely be delayed, and there are still many sell orders above $78,000. Ordinary people should avoid chasing the rebound with leverage these days and first see if the weekly chart can hold the 50-week moving average. If it holds, this drop is just an emotional purge; if it doesn't, it's not too late to look for a lower position.
$BTC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH
In this midterm election, Trump has basically lost completely.
Now the sentiment in the crypto circle is visibly panicked; many people have already predicted a big drop in the crypto market.
The current vote count is very clear: the Democratic Party is leading by a large margin, firmly taking the House of Representatives, and also making a reverse comeback in the Senate. Next, the new Speaker will take office, holding investigative powers, and has long made harsh statements that the first thing upon taking office will be to strictly investigate three major issues.
The most fatal of these is a thorough investigation into the financial arrangements of the Trump family.
In the past two years, he has heavily invested in the crypto sector, including WLFI, the USD1 stablecoin, and the recently obtained banking license—all are on the investigation list. This means the crypto empire he built single-handedly is now facing a comprehensive liquidation.
This is also the core reason for the market panic.
For the entire previous year, the biggest policy backing for the crypto circle was on this side; everyone was playing with relaxed expectations. Now that Congress has changed, regulatory expectations have instantly reversed, naturally putting pressure on the market.
However, there is no need for blind panic.
Historical patterns show that after midterm elections, the balance of power between the White House and Congress makes it difficult for extreme new policies or extreme regulations to be implemented.
The negative news is real, but the probability of a direct crash is not high; it is more about emotional sell-offs and washing out floating chips. Patience to endure the volatility is key.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 【Two extremes: AI keeps booming, $CORE don't rush to catch the falling knife (•̀ᴗ•́)و】
AI optical communication heats up again: Marvell plans a stock swap acquisition of Lumentum, giants heavily investing in underlying computing power, peripheral funds still hyped on AI infrastructure (￣▽￣)～■□～.
On the other hand, CORE's "asset recovery good news" turned into an emotional bomb. The hard fork recovered 68.15 million CORE, but the market dropped over 6% (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻. The transaction was not rolled back, but the attack record is permanently on-chain — technical patches can be applied, but trust cracks are hard to mend (｡•́︿•̀｡). More critically, these tokens only went into a recovery address and have not yet been distributed to affected users, the invisible selling pressure hangs like a sword overhead.
Combined with macro disturbances from the midterm elections, sentiment is fragile. CORE holders: first verify your holdings, reset stop losses, focus only on core support; only with support can recovery happen, break it and withdraw (•̀ᴗ•́)و. Don't treat "good news" as a buy signal, funds are running, don't rush to catch the flying knife (；一_一).
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) are often touted as "disrupting traditional cloud services" and flourishing. But beneath the surface, many networks do not run on real demand; instead, they rely on inflation subsidies to sustain false data.
Comparing these three projects:
$FIL: The former storage giant. The total network capacity is huge, but the actual enterprise-paid storage revenue is very low. Node (SP) earnings still heavily depend on block inflation rewards. Its token value capture is extremely reliant on the realization of the future narrative of "AI data storage."
$RNDR: The leader in the computing power track. The BME mechanism (burn and mint equilibrium) has been successfully implemented, and the mechanism design is sound. But the pain point is that the absolute income scale from AI inference is not yet large enough; the buy pressure from token burns relative to its circulating market value is insufficient to create a big wave.
$HNT: The veteran in IoT communication. Initially grew through hotspot mining subsidies, now transitioning to 5G networks. Its token capture depends on real network data consumption (Data Credits), with a clear path, but limited by the overall growth rate of the IoT sector.
Conclusion:
FIL relies on "inflation subsidies and new narratives"; RNDR has a "working mechanism but a small market size"; HNT is "seeking real communication demand." When buying DePIN, the hard metric is to look beyond node counts to real external payments and see how much remains after subsidies are deducted. Whale moving 10,000 BTC—is it a sign of an impending dump?
Suppose one day there’s a large on-chain transfer of 10,000 BTC; just looking at that number is quite intimidating.
Especially when someone says “whale activity,” it’s easy to jump to the conclusion that someone is preparing to sell.
But an on-chain transfer doesn’t equal an actual trade.
If it’s just the same entity reallocating assets between different wallets, no buying or selling may have occurred at all. Even if the funds are transferred to an exchange, it only means the capital might be ready for trading, not that it will definitely be sold.
So I think when seeing whale news, besides the amount, it’s more important to check who the sending and receiving addresses belong to.
However, on-chain address labels can also be inaccurate, so it’s still hard to judge the true intent based on a single transfer alone.
When you see a large whale transfer, do you immediately worry about a dump, or do you first check the wallet addresses? $BTC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The results of the U.S. midterm elections are out, and the crypto industry has delivered a very poor report card.
To start with the conclusion: $64 million did not buy the desired outcome. Sherrod Brown successfully won re-election, and the money the industry spent on his opponent did not work.
Looking at the specific losses: pro-crypto representatives Bryan Steil, Zach Nunn, and Ann Wagner all lost their seats, and Mike Lawler has also conceded defeat. This is not an individual issue but a collective failure of a whole group.
Why didn’t the money work? Voters’ sensitivity to crypto issues is far lower than to pressing topics like inflation and employment. The industry spent money on advertising, but on voting day, people were thinking about other things. The $64 million bought exposure, not votes.
What does this mean for the market? Policy expectations will be pushed back. The pro-crypto forces in this Congress are weaker than anticipated, so the narrative of pushing legislation forward won’t have a timetable in the short term. Part of the pricing of $BTC and $ETH originally included a premium for regulatory easing, which now needs to be discounted. Highly volatile assets like $SOL react more noticeably when sentiment cools.
But it’s not all bad. Losing an election doesn’t mean the issue disappears; the industry’s political donation capability has been proven. What’s really worth considering is: who should this money be given to for it to be effective? If the same results keep happening over several cycles, the industry may need to change its way of engaging in politics rather than just increasing the budget.I bought $CRCL thinking USDC +25% = money printing.
I was wrong.
Reserve income only +5%. Coinbase eats >60%. Rates falling. $900M redeemed in a week.
I learned: growth without margin is just volume.
I'm still holding into earnings tomorrow, but not blind anymore.
Are you holding or selling?
$CRCL
#CircleQ3USDCGrowth Is $BTC going to be rescued by Trump again? Where exactly is the funding coming from?
The midterm election results are still unfolding, and the Republican side is under considerable pressure, causing market sentiment to fluctuate back and forth. The non-farm payroll report is just ahead on Friday, and the current rebound clearly lacks volume, so rushing to chase the highs is not recommended.
Looking at past patterns, one to two months after the midterm elections often present good opportunities for positioning. But in the short term, the focus remains on the non-farm payrolls, as this data will directly influence the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision. September's non-farm payroll added only 29,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. The market now expects October's additions to be between 55,000 and 60,000.
The current market consensus is that short-term rate cuts are basically off the table; the core concern is how long high interest rates will be maintained.
However, persistently high interest rates are not set in stone. If subsequent employment and economic data continue to weaken and pressure accumulates, the Fed is more likely to adjust its policy later. The crypto market is especially sensitive to liquidity expectations; often, before real funds enter, the market already speculates on rate cuts, which can easily trap traders.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $ETH The big dip down to 76000 this morning definitely shouldn't be shorted; it's a very strong support. You can only short if the support fails and the rebound can't go up. I don't understand the idea behind shorting at 76000. I also said this morning that you can go long with a stop loss and a light position on $BTC $ETH $BTC ETF outflows reached $1.16 billion, with institutions saying it's a short-term sentiment weakness.
However, open interest rose 3.5% in 24 hours and the price increased by 1.93%, indicating new long positions are entering, not just a simple retreat.
The $79,742 level has been tested 7 times on the upside, pulled back 5 times, and broken through twice. I'm watching this level closely; if it doesn't hold, I won't chase longs.
The US nonfarm payroll data for November 4 is about to be released, and the market may not follow historical patterns. Do you think it will break above $79,742 first or pull back to $77,601 first? #Чистый отток средств из спотового биткойн-ETF в США за два дня превысил 1 миллиард долларов 🚨 Apple's earnings report seems like a big win, but the market isn't buying it! The real risk might be hidden in next quarter's gross margin.
$AAPL Apple's Q4 revenue and profit both exceeded market expectations, but the stock price dropped after the earnings release.
The question is: with such good results, why are investors selling?
The answer may be just one: the market is not looking at how much was earned in the past, but how much can be earned in the future.
What is most worth watching this time is Apple's guidance for next quarter's gross margin.
📉 1. Gross margin decline is what the market is truly worried about
Apple expects the December quarter gross margin to be 45%–46%, a clear drop from this quarter's 47.9%, and below analysts' previous expectations.
This means that even if revenue continues to grow, profit margins may be squeezed.
📉 2. Rising memory prices are transmitting cost pressure
The CFO clearly stated that memory prices are currently at unprecedented highs.
Previously accumulated low-cost inventory is gradually being used up, and cost pressures may continue in the coming quarters.
On top of that, investments related to Siri AI are starting to be accounted for, so Apple faces not only sales growth challenges but also how to maintain profit margins.
📉 3. Service business growth is slowing, another profit engine is cooling down
The service business growth guidance for next quarter is slowing to 8%–9%.
Although the service business still has relatively high profit margins, the slowdown in growth also means that Apple's hopes to further improve through the service business are diminishing 🔥The most alarming signal has appeared: both BTC and ETH are holding near critical levels, but institutional funds have not shown active inflows! BTC is hovering around 78,000, ETH is tugging around 2,300, prices have not crashed drastically, yet there is also a lack of strong upward momentum. 📉 Previously, BTC spot ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of about $643 million, and ETH ETFs have experienced outflows for several consecutive trading days, with a single-day net outflow of about $139.7 million on November 2, mostly contributed by BlackRock's ETHA.
🧠 This indicates the market is currently more in a risk digestion phase rather than having re-entered a strong buying stage. BTC's rebound may partly be due to short covering, but whether sustained incremental funds appear depends on subsequent spot trading and ETF flows. The 78,556–78,836 range is a short-term resistance zone to watch for BTC, while ETH needs to be monitored for an effective breakthrough of 2,350–2,370. ⚠️
Additionally, BTC's near-term options implied volatility has risen from about 43.5% to about 51%, meaning the market's expectation of short-term volatility has clearly increased. Policy uncertainty after the U.S. elections and employment data may continue to affect risk appetite. 🧭 Before funds truly flow back, I prefer to control positions and wait for confirmation rather than guessing which bullish candle signals a reversal. When do you think institutional funds will re-enter? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 🔥Don't just focus on the results of the U.S. midterm elections; what’s truly worth studying is the timing overlap between them and BTC's four-year halving cycle! In 2014, 2018, and 2022, the three midterm elections all occurred during bear markets, and BTC continued to decline after the elections before gradually starting a new recovery phase. 📊 The lows were approximately 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days from election day, respectively, which on the surface suggests the cycle bottoms seem to appear earlier each time.
But this does not mean the elections are the switch for market downturns. The years 2014, 2018, and 2022 were accompanied by different industry shocks, especially the 2022 FTX collapse, which had an independent and significant impact on the market. 🧠 Therefore, the halving cycle and political cycle can be studied together but should not be conflated, nor should the three historical events be treated as an inevitable script.
⚠️ What’s most special about 2026 is that BTC’s phase low already appeared early in July, several months ahead of the November election. This could mean the market has completed part of its adjustment early, or it could indicate that the structure of this cycle has changed. Tonight, rather than guessing whether the market will drop again after the election, it’s better to focus on key lows, capital flows, and trend confirmation. Do you trust the four-year cycle more, or do you believe institutional funds will rewrite history this time? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Both chambers flipped blue overnight, and the crypto sector's policy tailwind is about to be discounted
The results of the U.S. midterm elections are out: Voting took place on November 3 local time, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for election. The Associated Press confirmed the Democrats secured at least 218 seats in the House and also flipped the Senate blue, resulting in both chambers changing majority control. Trump's second half of the term officially becomes a divided government, with the new Congress taking office in January next year.
For the crypto sector, the significance lies not in who won, but that the tailwind is gone. Over the past two years, crypto benefited from the White House and Congress being controlled by the same party: deregulation, legislative progress, all green lights. Going forward, with legislative and oversight power switching sides, the pace of digital asset-related bills and personnel appointments will face more hurdles, and uncertainty will clearly increase.
But I’m not strictly bearish. Divided government is best at gridlock; with fiscal policy stalled, liquidity expectations might actually loosen. On election night, $BTC first dropped below 76,000 then bounced back above 78,000, reflecting the market betting on both sides.
My stance: The news only changes my mid-term assumptions, not my short-term tactics. Don’t overfill your positions; keep doing what the charts indicate, and don’t chase gains or panic sell based on a single news item.
All of the above is my personal market sense and plan, not investment advice.
What do you think—does the chambers flipping blue mean the crypto sector’s downside is fully priced in, or is the tailwind just over? 👇#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The Senate flipped blue, and CLARITY's plans need to be redone
The most crucial piece of the U.S. midterm elections puzzle has been settled: The Associated Press called Iowa, where Democrat Josh Turek defeated Republican Ashley Hinson to claim the 51st Senate seat, officially securing Democratic control of the Senate. Other flips that night included Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Kansas, and Maine—Texas's Talarico became the first Democratic senator from Texas since 1988, and Ohio's Brown also won.
For the crypto community, the most painful part was the Ohio race: the industry spent about $176 million across more than 100 districts this cycle, with over $50 million spent in Ohio alone opposing Brown, yet Brown still won. The money couldn't buy the seat back.
Don't be too optimistic about legislation yet: On September 15, the CLARITY Act failed a procedural Senate vote 49 to 50, short of the 60-vote threshold; even with a change in majority, it won't automatically become easier. The more likely scenario is that figures like Warren and Brown, who have been tough on crypto, will first lead oversight agendas, with hearings and subpoenas coming before legislation.
With the Senate changing hands, the crypto community's question shifts from "Will the bill pass?" to "Which hearing hurdle will come first?" ZEC's trading volume in the last hour surged nearly 3.7 times, yet the closing price dropped by $2.45.
On OKX, the spot price closed at $1286.67 between 17:00 and 18:00, down from $1289.12 in the previous hour; trading volume rose from $1.8134 million to $6.7175 million. At 18:00, the nominal contract open interest was about $190.33 million, an increase of approximately $4.433 million compared to 17:00. At 18:19, the current price was around $1304.90.
My judgment is that the increase in both trading volume and open interest is significant, but the closing price for that hour did not keep up. Whether the current upward momentum holds until the hour mark will better indicate if the buying pressure can sustain. The total open interest does not distinguish between new longs or shorts.
I am more focused on whether the price between 18:00 and 19:00 can close above the previous hour's high of $1292.32. If it falls back below $1286.67 while open interest continues to rise, the recent upward move will need to be reassessed.
$ZEC Let's calculate: comparing $500 million to over $1 billion, the former is less than half of the latter, but investment is not the same as revenue. When I saw this news, my first reaction was to break down the scope and not equate a large amount directly with a big problem.
① According to reports, Robert Garcia, who will serve as chairman of the House Oversight Committee, stated that Trump's crypto-related business has generated over $1 billion in revenue and said he will examine the family's crypto transactions and other business dealings. This figure indicates the significance of the subject under review, but it is currently his statement and cannot replace the conclusion of an investigation.
② The Democrats previously focused on a member of the UAE royal family who invested about $500 million in World Liberty Financial last year. My focus is that this company is still applying for a nationwide bank license that requires approval from relevant U.S. Treasury departments. The clarity of the funding relationships and the approval process is more critical than the amount itself.
③ The Democrats plan to start inquiries and subpoenas related to the companies and donors from February next year. This is the timeline for subsequent procedures, not proof of any problems found; if the inquiries affect license approval, then the uncertainty of business progress may increase, which is my speculation.
My judgment: this is somewhat negative for Trump's family-related crypto business but not enough to be bearish for the entire industry. I would pay more attention to investigation evidence and license progress rather than headline volume. Which indicator do you usually value most: funding sources, investigation evidence, or license approval progress? "The boot has landed, but that doesn't mean buying has returned"
With the midterm elections concluded, the crypto market first played out "buy the rumor, sell the fact." The Democrats' sweep of both chambers briefly ignited fears of tighter regulation, causing BTC to drop below $76,000 and ETH to dip near $2,225 (´･ω･`). Then, as the results became clear and uncertainty faded, short sellers covered, pushing BTC back up to around $78,468 and ETH recovering above $2,300 to $2,326, a seemingly lively V-shaped rebound (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
However, this feels more like an emotional swing rather than a confirmed trend. The Democratic victory had already been priced in by Polymarket at over 75%, with over $660 million in BTC options traded on election day, about $420 million of which were calls, indicating bets on "bad news being fully priced in" (・∀・). The issue is that spot ETFs have seen net outflows for more than twenty consecutive trading days, with BlackRock's ETHA seeing a single-day outflow of $138 million; BTC's rebound mainly relied on short covering, with no significant new buying entering the market.
Therefore, $78,000 and $2,300 seem more like psychological stop-loss levels for both bulls and bears. Holding these levels does not equal buying returning (￣▽￣). If capital flows do not turn positive going forward, the rebound may still be just a short-term correction.
$BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
The voting results are in, marking a critical watershed for the AI theme in the US stock market.
The market’s core question is simple: Can Trump’s all-in AI strategy continue moving forward?
Previously, Trump’s AI strategy centered on loosening regulations, accelerating data center network approvals, and advancing the $500 billion Starlink AI infrastructure, easing restrictions on computing power, chip, and cloud providers. This was the key policy backing for the current AI capital expenditure cycle. But now, with the change in Congress’s composition, the biggest variable has emerged: executive orders can be pushed, but budget, bill approvals, and energy and land review powers lie with Congress.
The conclusion is clear: The broad AI direction won’t be overturned, but the pace of progress will be significantly slowed.
A completely unrestricted acceleration model is hard to replicate, and the difficulty of implementing strong fiscal stimulus has increased; however, the underlying logic of Silicon Valley giants, computing power demand, and the global AI race remains intact. Regulation will shift from "full liberalization" to "conditional approval."
Impact on US tech stocks:
In the short term, expectations will be cut; high-valuation AI computing power and semiconductors are prone to volatile battles, and capital will first realize the premium from policy dividends;
In the medium term, there will be differentiation. Targets with orders already in place, such as computing hardware, energy support, and data centers, will be more resilient; AI application targets relying purely on policy expectations to tell their story will continue to face valuation pressure.
In the long term, the AI capital expenditure cycle is not over; it is just shifting from "policy-driven" to "performance-driven," with increased volatility.SNDK at $1145, do you dare to catch it?
Revenue surged 378%, but the stock price crashed 13% in one day, halving from 2300 to 1145 — is the explosive performance of SNDK a golden opportunity or a flying knife? Just now, 1050 held.
First, look at the surface: explosive earnings report, but the stock crashed.
Q1 FY2027 revenue $11.031 billion, up 378% year-over-year, up 23% quarter-over-quarter; EPS $49.51, significantly beating expectations; gross margin 85.1%; data center revenue $4.8 billion, up 61% quarter-over-quarter; $5 billion buyback; long-term agreements with minimum committed revenue of about $93.9 billion. All positives, right?
But after the earnings report, the stock dropped over 13% in one day, falling from the June high of 2300 down to 1145, a 35% drop in a month and 13% in a week. The market isn’t ignoring the results; it has already priced in the earnings. Think it’s an overreaction? Hold on, read on.
First point: Why did the stock crash despite explosive earnings? The market fears not the earnings but the "growth slowdown."
Year-over-year revenue growth of 378% sounds scary, but quarter-over-quarter growth is retreating from a higher level; consumer segment (PC/mobile) revenue is under pressure, high prices suppress demand; peers like Kioxia warn limited room for consumer price increases. The market is buying not the present but the next quarter.
What’s more painful: stocks rise on expectations, not facts. Before earnings, it rose from 36 to 2300, over 60 times, the good news was already digested. When earnings came out, institutions’ first reaction wasn’t "Wow, amazing," but "Is there anything better?" — no, so they sell first.
This is traditional finance play: all good news priced in becomes bad news. If you trade it with a meme mindset, you’ll get hurt badly.
Second point: The $93.9 billion minimum committed revenue is not just a promise.
Long-term agreements (NBM) signed with multiple customers cover about half of FY2027 and two-thirds of FY2028 bit production, with minimum committed revenue around $93.9 billion. In plain terms: more than half of the next two years’ revenue is already booked.
Moreover, the company is debt-free, cash-rich, with adjusted free cash flow about $5.7 billion, profit margin over 50%, and this quarter repurchased about $5 billion. This is not a company short on money; it’s a money-printing machine.
AI data center storage demand (HBM + enterprise SSD) is expected to continue through 2027-2028, with supply tight and hard to ease quickly. SNDK is a pure NAND/SSD player, data center accounts for over 40%, deeply cooperating with the three major US hyperscalers, holding strong pricing power. The AI storage shovel seller’s business is intact; what’s bad is the stock chips.
Third point: Technicals show oversold rebound but no mid-term reversal.
Fell from 2300 to 1145, a roughly 50% retracement. Daily RSI rebounded from oversold but remains weak; MACD death cross with shrinking histogram shows signs of bottoming but no golden cross; moving averages in bearish alignment, price below MA20/50. Short term is repair, mid-term is a downtrend channel.
Support: 1050-1100 (recent lows + psychological level) → 1000 (structural break)
Resistance: 1180-1200 (first line) → 1250-1300 (dense trading zone) → 1500+
Only a volume-backed hold above 1200 counts as a reversal; failure means just an oversold bounce.
Also note: 8-for-1 stock split, record date around November 9, trading starts around November 20. Volatility will amplify before and after the split, liquidity may be speculated, but leverage will be swept back and forth.
Bull vs. Bear, you decide
On one side:
Revenue up 378% YoY, gross margin 85%, data center +61%
$93.9 billion minimum committed revenue, more than half of two years’ revenue booked
Debt-free + $5 billion buyback + $5.7 billion free cash flow
Halved from 2300 to 1145, RSI oversold recovery
AI storage supercycle not over
On the other side:
Quarter-over-quarter growth slowing, consumer segment weak
Valuation still requires high growth to justify, PE 8-9x not cheap
Bearish moving averages, mid-term downtrend channel
Post-earnings volume sell-off, selling pressure remains
Volatility amplified around stock split, leverage easily swept
Trading strategy
Aggressive short-term (1-3 days):
Light long positions at 1120-1145, stop loss below 1080 (exit if below recent low). First target 1180-1200, sell half; if breaks 1200, look to 1250. Position size 5-10% of capital, leverage ≤5-10x.
Conservative mid-term (1-4 weeks):
Wait for pullback to strong support at 1050-1100 to build positions gradually, or wait for daily volume-backed hold above 1200 to chase. Stop loss below 1000, target 1300-1500. Position size 10-20%, build in batches. Reduce leverage before and after split, reduce positions before macro events (nonfarm payroll, FOMC, semiconductor peer earnings).
Bearish view:
If rebound at 1180-1200 meets resistance with volume and bearish candle, light short positions, stop loss above 1220, target 1100-1050.
SNDK now is like Nvidia in 2023 —
99% think "It’s risen too much, wait for a pullback," but when pullback comes, they don’t buy, then it rallies back and they regret.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK “The boot dropping” does not equal funds returning
After the results of the U.S. midterm elections were announced, the crypto market first went through a stress test, then quickly saw short covering. The Democrats took control of both the House and Senate, and concerns about tighter regulation once crushed risk appetite: Bitcoin fell below $76,000, Ethereum dipped to $2,225. But once the results were no longer uncertain, the market trading logic immediately shifted from "fear of bad news" to "bad news fully priced in," with Bitcoin making a V-shaped recovery to $78,468, approaching the $79,000 mark; Ethereum reclaimed $2,300, closing at $2,326.
The fuel for this rebound was not the election itself. The Democratic victory had long been priced in by Polymarket at over 75%, what was truly bought back was certainty. On election day, Bitcoin options block trades exceeded $660 million, with about $420 million in call buys, some funds clearly betting on a short-term rebound after the results were finalized.
But price reclaiming key levels does not mean incremental funds have returned. Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net outflows for more than twenty consecutive trading days, with BlackRock's ETHA seeing a single-day outflow of $138 million; Bitcoin's rebound also came more from short covering rather than sustained new buying. The $78,000 and $2,300 levels currently look more like psychological stop-loss lines for bulls and bears rather than trend confirmation signals. The market has temporarily stopped falling, but after "buying the expectation, selling the fact," the real answer from funds is still awaited.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $ETH has been stronger than BTC this afternoon. The lowest point on the hourly candle at 11 AM Beijing time dropped to 2,226, then started to hold above 2,300 in the afternoon, just now reaching a high of 2,330, currently around 2,325, up 4.4% from the low, and +2.4% in 24h.
Binance ETH contract open interest rose from 5.34 billion to 5.50 billion USD in 24 hours, while BTC only increased from 7.73 billion to 7.74 billion. The new leverage is basically all on ETH.
Swolecharts reports that from 0:00 to 10:00 UTC today, ETH liquidations totaled 47.4 million USD, with longs at 27.2 million and shorts at 20.15 million. Shorts have also started to be squeezed in these hours.
$BTC also broke through the large holder's liquidation price of 78,192 at noon, reaching a high of 78,586, now at 78,480, with both sides' fees at +0.01%.
My view is that ETH is currently pushing upward by increasing positions. Undertow statistics show that on Hyperliquid, there are 49.2 million USD worth of short liquidations pressing above the price, while long liquidations below are only 14.4 million. Short-term shorts are more uncomfortable, but since yesterday ETH ETF still had a net outflow of 85.35 million USD and spot hasn't caught up, I don't consider this a reversal yet.🔥What BTC truly lacks is not an election result, but the certainty that can reassure institutions to enter the market! Today, the price hovers around $77,000, the Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 33, and long liquidations totaled $211 million in the past 24 hours. 📊 These data indicate that market sentiment remains fragile; even a slight pause in the rebound could force leveraged longs to exit.
Looking at the CLARITY Act, the Senate procedural vote on September 15 failed to reach the 60-vote threshold, resulting in 49 votes in favor and 50 against. The controversies focus on ethical constraints, stablecoin yield arrangements, and banking competition issues. A change in leadership and agenda priorities in the committee due to turnover does not mean the existing disputes will disappear. 🧩 If negotiations fail to reach a compromise, the legislative certainty the market expects may be further delayed; however, regulators may still advance some matters through rulemaking.
Therefore, do not treat the election directly as a buy signal for BTC. Whether ETF funds have stopped falling and whether macro interest rate expectations ease are the key points to watch next. ⚠️ In the short term, BTC first looks at $76,000; if it breaks down effectively, the focus below is $74,000–$74,900; only by reclaiming $78,000 can the weak structure improve. Do you think the next rally requires a policy breakthrough, or is a capital inflow enough? 🔥No matter how lively the election results are, they can't catch the sell-off for BTC! Today, BTC is still hovering near $77,000, with a slight 24-hour increase of 0.28%, but the Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 33, indicating market sentiment has entered the fear zone. What’s more concerning is that in the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across the network reached $282 million, with long positions accounting for $211 million. 📉 The price not plunging sharply does not mean the leverage risk has disappeared.
Many people pin their hopes on which party controls Congress in the U.S., but the deadlock over the CLARITY Act shows that legislation can’t be completed with a simple majority change. On September 15, the Senate procedural vote failed 49 to 50 to advance the bill; ethical rules, stablecoin yields, and banking concerns remain negotiation obstacles. 🧠 Even if congressional seats change, further negotiation, revision, and voting are needed, so legislative progress is uncertain.
Meanwhile, ETF fund flows and interest rate expectations are more direct short-term variables. If institutions continue to reduce positions, election sentiment alone is unlikely to sustain a continuous rise. ⚠️ I will focus on whether ETF funds can stop outflows after the non-farm payroll data release and whether BTC can regain and hold above 78,000. On the downside, watch 76,000 first; if broken, then pay attention to 74,000–74,900. Today, do you trust political narratives more, or real capital flows? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 🔥Stop treating the U.S. elections as a BTC price pump button! Whether the Democrats or Republicans hold the advantage affects the political arithmetic of the future Congress, but it won't directly create buying pressure in the market. BTC has been tugging around $77,000 today, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 33. There were $282 million liquidations across the network in 24 hours, including $211 million losses on long positions.📉 The price seems to fluctuate only slightly, but leveraged funds have already paid the price.
What really deserves attention is the CLARITY Act. The Senate procedural vote on September 15 failed to pass, with 49 votes in favor and 50 against, still short of the 60 votes needed to advance. The controversy is not only about the regulatory framework but also includes ethics provisions for public officials, stablecoin yield structures, and conflicts of interest between banks and the crypto industry.🧩 Changing the majority party does not mean these divisions will automatically disappear.
Continuous ETF outflows and tight macro interest rate expectations are the key reasons for current capital hesitation.⚠️ In the short term, watch for support at $76,000; if broken, focus on $74,000–$74,900; on the rebound, see if funds truly flow back. Elections provide a long-term narrative, but daily ETF subscriptions and redemptions more directly affect buying and selling forces. Do you think BTC will hold $76,000 first or continue downward to find support? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
Yes, but profits will be significantly diluted. Expansion in scale (increase in USDC circulation) can indeed bring more reserve income such as U.S. Treasury interest, but this does not mean net profits will surge proportionally.
· The key obstacle is "cost": Circle needs to pay very high "distribution costs" (revenue sharing) to major channels like Coinbase. In addition, the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cut expectations will directly reduce its interest income.🔥If historical patterns continue to hold, is BTC's cycle bottom arriving earlier each year? Looking back at 2014, 2018, and 2022, the U.S. midterm elections all occurred near the end of Bitcoin bear markets, with the actual cycle lows appearing about 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days after the elections, respectively. 📉 From the time intervals, there is indeed a trend of gradual shortening, which is why many cycle analysts keep a close eye on the midterm elections.
However, we cannot conclude that the fourth low will definitely come earlier just because the previous three lows have moved closer to the election date. Each market cycle has its own variables: 2014 had exchange platform crises, 2018 experienced an industry winter, and 2022 saw the FTX incident. The halving cycle provides an observational framework, but liquidity and sudden risks can also alter the trend. ⚠️
What’s more noteworthy is that the BTC phase low in 2026 already appeared in July, about four months before the November election. Whether this time the bottom is early or there will be a second dip later cannot be determined yet. 🧭 I prefer to observe whether the low holds, if trading volume recovers, and whether the long-term moving averages can be reclaimed. Do you think this round of adjustment has already ended early? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 🔥Three U.S. midterm elections, three times BTC continued to test new lows after the elections. This timing pattern deserves serious study! After the 2014 election, it took about 71 days for BTC to hit the cycle low; about 39 days after 2018; about 13 days after 2022.📊 Looking only at these three data sets, the timing of the lows does seem to be gradually advancing, as if each bear market completes its final panic sell-off after the election results are settled.
But here is a key issue: coincidence in timing does not mean the election caused the decline. In 2014, there was the aftermath of the Mt.Gox incident; in 2018, there was an internal crisis in the crypto market; in 2022, the FTX collapse was an additional factor.🧠 What really drives BTC to bottom may be the combined effects of the halving cycle, liquidity, industry risks, and the macro environment, rather than a single political event.
🌍 In 2026, a different situation appeared: the phase low already occurred in July, earlier than the November election. This suggests the market may have completed part of its adjustment early, or it might just be a temporary low that still needs to be verified later. When discussing cycles today, we cannot just look at historical numbers; we must also consider price structure and capital flows. Do you think this time will continue the pattern of the previous three rounds, or will it take a completely different path? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权