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Risk Warning: The following is a conditional strategy based on the public market conditions as of November 4 and does not constitute investment advice. The midterm election results are still unfolding, and the non-farm payrolls on Friday are imminent, creating a dense event window. Position management takes priority over directional judgment.
As of November 4, $BTC BTC has been fluctuating repeatedly between 77,000 and 78,000, briefly breaking above 78,000 in the early hours before retreating to around 77,000. ETH is reported around 2,265–2,276, having surged to 2,303 intraday before falling back under pressure, overall still in a weak recovery pattern. Market sentiment is in the fear zone, and directional choices require confirmation from incremental funds after event outcomes.
$BTC BTC Trading Strategy: Treat the 77,000–78,000 range as a box, do not bet before a breakout
Core Logic: BTC is currently in a rebound and repair phase after a decline. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward but the lower band is flattening, indicating short-term downward momentum is weakening, with funds supporting at low levels, but the overall bearish trend remains unchanged. The upper resistance at 78,000–78,100 combines the early morning high and the box midpoint pressure; a breakout targets 78,800–79,500. The lower support at 76,400–76,800 is a recent pullback zone; if broken, look to 76,000 and 75,600.
Strategy A: Wait and see (preferred)
• Before the midterm election results are finalized, the box midpoint (77,200–77,800) has an unfavorable risk-reward ratio; do not participate.
Strategy B: Light long position on pullback to 76,400–76,800 (aggressive short-term only)
• Entry: Enter lightly if volume increases and price stops falling or shows a long lower shadow in this area.
• Stop loss: Below 75,800.
• Target: Exit at 77,500–77,800.
Strategy C: Light short position at 78,000–78,200 (short-term only)
• Entry: Light short when a rebound to this area shows stagnation (upper shadow, volume contraction).
• Stop loss: Above 78,700.
• Target: Exit at 77,200–77,000.
Invalidation: If volume surges and price stabilizes above 79,500, the bearish logic is paused; reassess on the right side.
$ETH ETH Trading Strategy: 2,290–2,300 is a hard resistance; focus on shorting rebounds
Core Logic: ETH’s structure is weaker than BTC’s. After surging to 2,303 in the early hours, it quickly fell back, confirming 2,290–2,300 as a short-term strong resistance zone. Technically, RSI is about 36.4, indicating weakness; price is below SMA20 (2,353) and SMA50 (2,508), with moving averages in a bearish alignment. MACD histogram is converging but direction unchanged. Support below is at 2,258 as a short-term low reference; if broken, look to 2,210 (Bollinger lower band) and 2,174 (30-day low).
Strategy A: Short on rebound (main strategy)
• Entry: Light short when ETH rebounds to 2,290–2,310 and faces resistance.
• Stop loss: Above 2,330.
• Targets: First target 2,260–2,250, second target 2,210.
Strategy B: Short on breakdown (conditional trigger)
• Trigger: ETH breaks 2,250 with volume and fails to recover on pullback.
• Entry: Light short on pullback to 2,250–2,260 after breakdown.
• Stop loss: Above 2,300.
• Targets: 2,210, with an extreme target of 2,174.
Long conditions: Only if volume surges and price stabilizes above 2,330–2,350, and BTC simultaneously strengthens, are the basic conditions for right-side long positions met. The current rebound remains a window for reducing positions/shorting.
Position and Risk Management Principles
1. Total position controlled within 10%. With midterm election results unfolding and Friday’s non-farm payrolls imminent, directional bets before events are essentially gambling.
2. BTC 78,700 and ETH 2,330 are bearish stop-loss lines; exit and observe if prices rise above these levels, do not hold positions.
3. The optimal strategy is to "wait." Only if BTC breaks out above 78,000 with volume and stabilizes, or ETH surges back above 2,330 with volume, is there a right-side signal. Before that, do not chase positions in the box midpoint; cash positions themselves are a form of position.Circle released its Q3 earnings today, with revenue expected to rise but EPS forecasted to drop by one-third. The core reasons are twofold:
First, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts have caused the USDC reserve yield to fall from 4.1% to 3.5% and it's still declining; second, the USDC circulation has shrunk from 73.3 billion to about 70 billion, meaning both revenue engines are slowing down simultaneously. Moreover, the interest on USDC held on Coinbase goes 100% to Coinbase, with a 50/50 split outside, and the protocol just renewed the agreement unchanged until 2029. Nearly 60% of Circle's revenue is shared with channels.
Today's revenue beat expectations likely relies on a one-time $240 million income from the Arc token presale, which isn't a real strength. Buying a business that earns interest spread at a 50x forward PE, when rates are not only falling but circulation isn't recovering, cannot sustain the valuation. $ZEC outperformed $BTC by 4.22 percentage points in the last 24 hours.
My first reaction wasn’t excitement, but to confirm: is this a market rebound, or are a few contracts stealing the spotlight?
① As of now, among the top 5 by 24h trading volume, $ZEC rose +3.55%, closing at 1176; $BTC fell -0.67%. The trading volume threshold limits the observation scope, so don’t treat this leaderboard as a thermometer for the entire market.
② Leading gainers include $ETH -0.26%, $BTC -0.67%, $SOL -0.92%. $ZEC’s strength didn’t synchronize with these assets, appearing more like a local standout rather than a broad rally.
③ $HYPE -1.88%, differing from $ZEC by 5.43 percentage points. Such a large gap at both ends of the same observation window means focusing only on the top can overlook volatility at the other end.
My judgment: this is useful for identifying divergence but insufficient to confirm an overall rebound. The leaderboard provides trading volume but not changes in liquidity, so the quality of the rise is still unclear.
When looking at these gainers and losers lists, do you focus most on the percentage change, relative strength to BTC, or changes in trading volume? Let’s discuss in the comments #CryptoCommunity#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
The market is focused on USDC's circulating supply hitting new highs, but what I see is a different layer of counter-consensus logic.
Stablecoin growth ≠ Circle shareholders making money.
CRCL is essentially still an interest rate business — reserve interest accounts for over 90% of revenue. No matter how large USDC's scale is, as long as the Fed's policy suppresses short-term yields, the yield per unit of reserve will be eaten up. Last quarter was a typical example: circulation surged to 76 billion+, but revenue only increased by single digits, with a 66 basis point drop in interest rates directly offsetting the increment.
So the three numbers to really watch in this earnings report are not how much USDC was issued again.
1. Can RLDC retention rate hold above 40%?
2. Is there real growth in Arc/payment/RWA-related income?
3. What guidance does management provide on the rate cut cycle?
In the short term, CRCL looks more like a money market fund disguised as crypto; good earnings don’t equal narrative fulfillment.
In the long term, only if USDC evolves from a store-of-value coin to a settlement layer will Circle deserve a network stock valuation. Otherwise, the more stablecoins grow, the more the market gets conflicted — scale benefits are eroded by interest rates.
A contrarian view: everyone bets on stablecoin adoption, but few ask "Who profits from adoption?" Licensing and compliance are tickets to the game, not printing presses. The real inflection point is when BTC stagnates, altcoins quiet down, and USDC on-chain settlement volume keeps rising — that’s the fundamental for decoupling bull and bear markets.
Positioning-wise, don’t chase highs before the earnings report; wait for expectation gaps. Good news fully priced in is easy to pull back from; bad news sell-offs might actually be golden opportunities. Last night, Bitcoin showed a 4H low point formation signal around 7.7, accompanied by multi-coin and multi-timeframe resonance. There was a rebound overnight, but it continued to fall this morning with weak momentum and a weak trend. It is expected to maintain some consolidation above the support level. The movement to the right still lacks some space and time; the rebound needs to break above the upper blue descending line to have a chance to enter a rebound cycle. Currently, it is still in the left-side bottoming phase, so patience is advised. The support at 7.5 below may still be tested. Ethereum is the same as yesterday, still waiting for the descending trendline to be broken. It has been tested multiple times so far, and the 12H-level low point is still holding support, with the lower support around 2170. The crypto market currently lacks hotspots and profit-making effects overall, somewhat mirroring the US stock market trend. The US stock QQQ continues to decline, now near 670, very close to the previous low of 660, so we continue to wait and watch. Although QQQ has a 12H low point, it clearly cannot support this downtrend for now. In commodities, gold XAU hit a new low before stopping its fall and rebounding, currently around 3950. It needs to return above 4K, then move right and break through the blue descending line to have a chance to enter a new upward cycle. Refer to the price action after the daily lows in July–August. #The US midterm elections have entered the vote-counting phase; how will control of Congress change? ADA
Current status: approximately $0.188–0.191
Resistance levels
Short-term resistance: $0.195–0.20
Mid-term resistance: $0.21–0.22
Strong resistance: $0.25+
Support levels
Current support: $0.185–0.188
Secondary support: 0.18 (support near \0.182 mentioned by analysis institutions)
Psychological bottom: $0.17
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 $ADA Good morning, crypto friends, this is Mouse's liquidation quick report
Below is the $BTC 24-hour total network liquidation data.
The total BTC liquidation amount in 24 hours is: 70.1322 million USD.
Among them
The 24-hour long position liquidation amount is: 48.5135 million USD.
The 24-hour short position liquidation amount is: 21.6187 million USD. BTC rebound hit resistance at 78,000, can it still hold 76,500 today?
Just finished breakfast and checked the market. BTC surged to $78,000 last night but was pushed back, with bulls and bears still tugging back and forth.
The long positions set around $76,700 yesterday hit the first target smoothly with a gain of 1,100 points. The remaining positions have their stop loss moved to breakeven, watching for the second target.
Yesterday, BTC repeatedly tested the $76,500–$76,800 range without a real close below it, indicating there is still buying support below.
However, this level has been tested multiple times, so whether it can hold today is uncertain.
Currently, $77,800 is a key short-term dividing line, located in the middle of the range and close to the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level. Only by firmly holding here can BTC have a chance to challenge $78,600 again.
If it faces resistance and falls back again, it may test the $76,500–$76,800 support zone.
Today, I’m slightly adjusting my approach and won’t place bottom-fishing orders in advance. I’ll wait for BTC to pull back and show a clear stop-fall signal, then reclaim the key level before considering light long positions on the right side. If it breaks below $76,500 effectively and fails to recover, I’ll continue to watch.
What do you think? Can BTC hold $76,500 today or will it continue to dip to $75,000? Let’s discuss in the comments! There's something quite counterintuitive: a company earns more than expected, so its stock price should rise, but at the same time it says "we might have to pay a bigger fine."
Block is doing exactly that. In Q3, gross profit was $3.2 billion, exceeding expectations, and the 2026 outlook was also raised; yet in the same financial report, it mentioned a potential settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, with an even larger amount.
My first reaction was—does that $3.2 billion really count? It does, but it's the $3.2 billion "before deducting the fine."
For those holding $BTC, this is actually a pretty typical scenario: the core business is making money, but the bills are lined up behind.XRP
Current pattern: about $1.25–1.28
Resistance levels
Short-term resistance: $1.30–1.35
Mid-term resistance: $1.40–1.50
Strong resistance: $1.65+
Support levels
Current support: $1.20–1.23
Secondary support: $1.10–1.15
Psychological bottom: $1.00
#AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 $XRP #AMD data center revenue nearly doubled, both revenue and guidance exceeded expectations A blast on Qeshm Island, BTC first drops then rallies: This round of Middle East pulse, crypto is trading "inflation" not "safe haven"
US military conducts "limited strike" on Iran's Qeshm Island, Strait of Hormuz risk lights up red again
Brent crude nears 105, WTI stands above 96+, gold and silver spike then retreat
BTC once fell below 77,000 → pulled back near 77,400 at dawn, 24h volatility over 2%
Nearly 100,000 liquidations across the network, longs and shorts both shaken out
But this time, don't rely on the old saying "When the cannon fires, gold gains ten thousand taels."
Bitcoin is a "high volatility risk asset":
Conflict → oil price rises → inflation expectations swing → rate cut expectations delayed, US Treasury yields hold firm → risk assets first cut valuations → sentiment stabilizes then rebounds.
So what you see is:
Panic selling hits BTC/ETH first → funds realize "it's not a full-scale war" → limited recovery → but leverage is washed out. Watch three switches in 72 hours:
Whether US military confirms "no large-scale operations"
Whether Hormuz Strait actually affects tanker passage
Whether BTC can reclaim 78,000 and hold — if not, it's a downtrend continuation
Don't treat geopolitics as a one-sided positive, don't chase contracts on news-driven rallies
Limited conflict = high volatility shakeout, full escalation = liquidity safe-haven clearing
The real pricing is oil price → interest rates
Missiles fall in the Persian Gulf, liquidations happen on-chain.
This round is not a safe-haven bull market, it's a macro expectation repricing
#美伊谈判未突破，油价为何单日跌逾7%？ #Circle Earnings Report is on the way, can stablecoin growth generate returns? $RAVE Overall bearish trend, retail investors are all bullish though, be cautious when bottom-fishing, continue holding
OKX RAVE Long-Short Ratio (Core Structure)
Retail investors: ↑ 3.60 → Extremely bullish
Number of large holders: ↓ 1.74 → Bullish
Large holders' positions: ↓ 0.72 → Extremely bearish
Main force inclination: Extremely bearish
The structure shows a classic divergence of “extremely bullish in number of holders, extremely bearish in positions, and extremely bearish in main force.”
Retail sentiment is extremely bullish, the number of large holders is also bullish, but actual positions and main force are extremely bearish. This structure often leads to a "bull trap followed by a dump" or a high-level pullback.
Network-wide comparison
Binance account long-short ratio: 4.04 (extremely bullish)
Binance large holders number: 4.45 (extremely bullish)
Binance large holders' positions: 1.94 (bullish)
Upcoming unlocks:
There is a small-scale unlock soon (about 4.4M), the next larger batch is in December/January (around 21M level).
Overall unlock progress is about 23–27%, with continuous linear release afterward.
Project progress: Ecosystem-related, no obvious major negative or positive news.
$BTC $ETH #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ A payment company's earnings report is turning into a handbook for the crypto market.
Block's Q3 gross profit reached $3.2 billion, exceeding expectations, while also raising its 2026 performance outlook. For a company that relies on payments and consumer wallets, this scale of quarterly gross profit indicates expanding cash flow and user activity.
Why should people in crypto care? Block is one of the few publicly listed companies that has truly made $BTC a product entry point: selling hardware wallets, enabling self-custody, and allowing consumers to buy and sell Bitcoin directly within the app. The gross profit beating expectations, in a sense, signals that more people are willing to pay to hold and use cryptocurrencies. This kind of demand is more dispersed and sticky compared to ETFs, which are concentrated in institutional hands. The logic for $ETH and $SOL is different, but the temperature is from the same river.
There is a second easily overlooked point in the earnings report: the company mentioned a potential settlement proposal from the U.S. Department of Justice involving a larger amount. This money has not yet been realized. In other words, the better-than-expected gross profit and the raised guidance were given before deducting this.
So my judgment is: this earnings report is a mildly positive signal for crypto, representing fundamental confirmation rather than market fuel. It proves that the payment sector is still active, while reminding you that regulatory costs still hang over such companies.
One point worth considering: if the crypto business is already strong enough to drive overall gross profit, will the regulatory price for it also be recalculated based on this new scale?When I saw this message, what popped into my mind wasn't "which small coin is about to take off," but rather "the street is bustling, but which shop can really keep people?" This is somewhat interesting, but I'm not very willing to directly count the chain's busyness as a positive for small coins. 👀
Blockworks Research data shows that Solana successfully processed 3.38 billion transactions in October, an 81% year-over-year increase, hitting a new high for four consecutive months. The statistics exclude validator votes and failed transactions. This metric excludes two types of interference but still cannot be used to determine capital flow.
My judgment is that this is more beneficial for ecological applications to gain attention, rather than boosting all small coins. The increase in successful transactions can support discussions about on-chain usage demand; however, the number of tradable transactions is not new capital and does not indicate that ordinary users are willing to continuously pay for any particular application.
The opportunity in highly volatile assets lies in the possible redistribution of attention; the risk is packaging oneself with ecological hype. I will first look at which scenarios the activity comes from, then see if the related applications have sustained usage and liquidity support. If the hype only stays at the chain-level data, then the sentiment spread for small coins may run faster than the actual benefits—that's my speculation.
What I want to distinguish next is "usage heat" versus "speculation heat." Around this new transaction volume high, are people recently paying attention to Solana's payment and trading applications, or the blockchain gaming track? What signals would you look at to judge that it's not just a momentary buzz?ETH is still grinding down today, the rebound is weak, 2280 is pressing down, 2250 barely holding, a typical bear taking a breather.
Intel is even worse, dropping much more sharply than ETH, starting with over 5%, faith shattered after the earnings guidance bomb, the AI narrative turning from "infinite spending" to "bill due".
Both sides actually share one logic: risk appetite has collapsed. Crypto is sneezing in sync with Nasdaq; when tech stocks shiver, altcoins kneel first.
Now is not the time to guess the bottom, but to see who stands first. ETH eyes 2250, Intel better not catch the flying knife—the blade hasn't landed yet.Today Yushu surged 18%, and my long-short strategy also made a little profit. How did I operate? (Feeding tutorial) Just like going long Tesla and short SpaceX, I go long Yushu while simultaneously shorting Changxin Storage with an equal amount. The reasons are as follows: - As analyzed before, Yushu and Changxin have similar circulating ratios, with no new circulating supply in the short term. However, bearish sentiment is severe; since listing, it has dropped 60%, with nowhere left to fall. - 🔥Today's liquidation data set shows that the most dangerous signal is not how much the price has dropped, but that the bulls are paying the price in concentration! $BTC $ETH $SOL On November 4th, the total network liquidation in the past 24 hours reached $396 million, with long liquidations at $322 million, accounting for 81.3%, and short liquidations only $73.92 million. Bulls remain the main liquidated party; during the rebound, some shorts were squeezed, so neither side truly holds the initiative.
🟠BTC liquidations reached $107 million, with longs accounting for 82%. Open interest dropped to $44.5 billion, the long-short ratio rose to 2.74, and retail bullish sentiment remains high; however, Hyperliquid whales have a net short position of about $887 million, showing a clear divergence in capital flow. The short-term key range is 78724–79012; only if it holds and positions recover should strength be considered; breaking below means continuing weak oscillation.
🔵ETH liquidations were $59.9 million, with longs at 66%, open interest around $22 billion, and daily bearish alignment still unimproved. 2193 is a risk observation level; near 2250 just experienced a bull washout, so it's not suitable to rush to bottom-fish.
🟣SOL liquidations were $26.9 million, with longs at 88%, accounts with longs at 78.6%, but active buying only 56.6%, total open interest down over 10%, and funding rates turned negative. 94.35 is the defense level, 96.04 is the strength observation level.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $BTC odds don't lie, the Republicans lose big, the Democrats win big. Actually, elections boil down to two major financial groups balancing each other. This time, the Jewish financial group wins big over the Anglo-Saxon group. The Democrats are backed by the Jewish financial group, the Republicans by the Anglo-Saxon group. Next, it depends on when the Democrats start investigating Musk, and whether they really find anything. Just to mention here, if BTC can't hold the last line at 74800-75000, it will completely collapse. Now the whole market is watching BTC's mood, just seeing how those at 76500-77500 plan to borrow money to cover their positions and where that will lead.#US midterm elections are approaching, which results are worth paying attention to?
After the midterm elections, there might be strikes against Iran, but then Trump indicated a pause on striking Iran. What impact do the midterm elections have on crypto?
If one chamber or both chambers are lost, it could mean a continuation of regulatory deadlock, with $BTC being more resilient and $ETH more sensitive.
The mainstream consensus on the midterm election expectations is more about a slim majority rather than a decisive majority 🤔
From a regulatory perspective, the already effective GENIUS Act will not be repealed by the new Congress, while the CLARITY Act was already defeated in the Senate procedural vote before the election (49:50), making its passage in 2026 nearly impossible.
If the Democrats take one or both chambers, what they truly gain are hearing rights, subpoena power, and investigative authority, not the votes to rewrite laws.
The presidential veto remains a firewall. As for the "Democrats achieving a two-thirds majority to override a veto," the probability in this election is very low. A more likely scenario is continued legislative gridlock, with regulatory friction shifting from "Congressional legislation" to "committee investigations + administrative enforcement."
The impact on BTC is limited; its pricing anchor is macro liquidity, dollar credit, and institutional allocation. The distribution of congressional seats does not directly alter these variables. Even if the Democrats sweep, BTC remains the most resilient crypto asset.
However, for ETH, ETH and DeFi are more deeply tied to market structure legislation, securities classification, and compliance pathways. The death of the CLARITY Act combined with intensified Democratic scrutiny will suppress ETH's valuation elasticity. Pay attention to the risks The Democratic Party has a higher probability of taking the House of Representatives, while the Senate remains uncertain. JPMorgan's scenario probabilities are: Democrats sweep both chambers 66%, split Congress 26%, Republicans hold both chambers only 7%.
Currently, votes are being counted. The Democrats have secured key Senate seats in Georgia and Virginia, but the final Senate outcome depends on battlegrounds like North Carolina, Ohio, and Michigan.
Impact of different outcomes on the market
Democrats sweeping 66%: short-term pressure on US stocks, possible tightening of AI regulation, long-term US bonds benefit
Split Congress 26%: legislative deadlock, market neutral bias, US bond yields decline
Republicans holding both chambers 7%: most favorable for US stocks, S&P may rise 1%-1.25%
Key observation points $OKB
AI/Tech stocks: If Democrats take full control, data center regulation and AI expansion may be restricted, causing short-term disruption in tech stocks.
Cryptocurrency: The CLARITY Act faces increased difficulty advancing, but the GENIUS stablecoin bill has been enacted, so regulatory direction will not reverse.
US bonds: With a divided government or Democratic sweep, fiscal expansion is limited, and long-term yields are very likely to decline.
Gold: Political uncertainty + fiscal deadlock, gold still has medium-term support. $XAU
My judgment
Historically, 6-12 months after midterm elections, both US stocks and Bitcoin have a good rebound window. But in the short term, don't rush to go all in; vote counting results, key seats, and the Iran situation are three variables still present, so volatility will not disappear immediately. #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Morgan Stanley recently officially integrated DTCC's (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation) tokenization service, becoming one of the first banks to adopt it. This is true; on October 28, DTCC's DTS service just launched, and Morgan Stanley was among the initial participants. Let's look at the scale and data. The first batch of institutions to connect includes 20 entities, besides Morgan Stanley, also Wall Street giants like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citibank. Initially, 34 types of eligible securities can be tokenized, mainly some Russell 1000 large-cap stocks, mainstream ETFs, and U.S. Treasuries, representing a total market value of about $30 trillion. How does this work? Simply put, it’s not about issuing a new coin for speculation. It creates a "1:1 digital twin" within the existing DTC custody system. That means if you have real stocks held in custody at DTC, the system generates a corresponding token for you. This token is backed by real securities, with dividends, voting rights, and other shareholder benefits intact—it's not a synthetic asset created out of thin air. Why do this? Mainly for collateral management and settlement efficiency. With this token, institutions can transfer assets 24/7 within compliant wallets without worrying about whether the U.S. stock market is open. For conversions during normal trading hours, DTCC aims to complete them within 15 minutes. 0x50c2be4b3958c358e2654c6dabb4feb9e1cc7777 0xe797e34845f5c23b1f578c7c49a101fca4Fear and Greed Index is only 37, the aftermath of Binance's $6.3 billion hack is still unsettled, mainstream coins are collectively turning red—but opportunities often hide in panic.
BTC ($76,531, -1.36%): $76,000 is the average cost line for short-term holders, and the 200-day moving average at $73,169 forms the long-term trend watershed. ETFs saw a single-day outflow of $643 million, but leverage clearing is nearing its end, and the mid-to-long-term technical outlook remains optimistic.
ETH ($2,252, -1.89%): October spot ETFs recorded a record net outflow of $1.61 billion, but whales are accumulating nearly $30 million against the trend. RSI has dropped to 29.78 entering the oversold zone, and $2,200 is a critical battleground between bulls and bears.
SOL ($91.32, -2.45%): After breaking the key support at $96, $90-91 has become the last line of defense. RSI around 26-31 indicates severe overselling, short-covering could trigger a technical rebound at any time, but four consecutive weeks of ETF outflows show weakening institutional demand.
The market is in a "sentiment low + technical oversold" recovery window; stay clear-headed amid the panic.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ #Circle earnings report is coming, can stablecoin growth deliver profits? "Created three months ago," this label is what I care about most. The material says that this wallet withdrew PONS and ETH from OKX in the past twelve hours. Such news is easily read as "a new big player entering the market," but on the other hand, I think its evidential strength for new funds is overestimated.
One reason is that the wallet's age does not equal the holder's experience. My guess is that if an old user just changed the receiving address, then a wallet that looks very new on-chain could still be backed by old funds and cannot be directly counted as new demand.
Another reason is that withdrawal records can show assets leaving the platform but do not explain when they were bought. Treating withdrawals as just-occurred buying activity misses a step. For news like $PONS, I separate "large transfers" from "new demand" to avoid being misled by the three words "new wallet."#CircleQ3USDCGrowth USDC circulation: Grew 19% year-over-year to $73.3 billion in Q2 2026.
On-chain transaction volume: Increased 151%.
Business opportunity: More adoption in international payments, settlements and financial services.
Future potential: Increased USDC usage could support Circle's long-term revenue growth. $BTC dropped from 87000 to a low of 76300,
currently fluctuating between 77,000 and 78,000$, selling pressure has temporarily eased, but the reversal is not yet confirmed.
There are three signals worth paying attention to:
▫️Technical: Support at 76300-76500 is holding for now. In the short term, watch 78100; only if volume increases and it holds above this level can we look at resistance at 79600-80600. The rebound lacks volume, and the daily chart's weak structure remains unchanged.
▫️Macro: The US tech sector is recovering, improving risk appetite, but the dollar and US bond yields remain strong, so liquidity has not turned loose.
▫️Capital: Panic sentiment has been digested, but that doesn't mean institutions have returned. Focus on spot ETF capital flows; sustained institutional buying is a necessary condition for strength.
Personal view: Short-term oscillation and recovery, maintain caution in the medium term.
Key levels:
✅78100: Short-term breakout confirmation
⚠️79600-80600: Strong resistance zone for the rebound
🛡️76300: Important support; breaking below returns to weakness
Personal strategy: Don't panic sell, don't chase longs on green candles.
Consider the right side only after volume breaks above 78100; if the rebound is weak, wait for a better opportunity.
What the market lacks now is not good news, but real incremental capital.
Whether this is a bear market rebound or the start of a new trend, let the market prove it. $PEPE $SOL Bitcoin ($BTC) has shown a divergent trend during this round of correction; while the price has fallen, shorts have actually faced more liquidations. $BTC is currently near 76,909, down 1.95% in 24 hours, having previously surged to 78,831 before retreating to a low of 76,621. Recent liquidation data shows that short liquidations exceed long liquidations, indicating that this decline is more of a position reset rather than a strong selling pressure. The Bitcoin buy-sell ratio has risen somewhat, and open interest remains at a high level. During the decline, both bottom-fishing funds and crowded longs coexist, and the direction of subsequent liquidations will provide further signals. Ethereum ($ETH) has moved in the opposite direction, with pressure concentrated on the long side. $ETH is quoted at 2,259.62, down 1.30% in 24 hours, with the low of 2,237.42 being a key support level. During this period, long liquidations have clearly exceeded shorts, with leveraged buyers being the main group under pressure. SOL ($SOL) has experienced the deepest drop among the three, down 2.61% to 92.42, with the support level at 90.87 worth close attention. Its buy-sell ratio has hardly changed, and long liquidations also exceed shorts. The funding rates for $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL all remain positive, meaning buyers are still paying holding costs. The market hides contradictions: Bitcoin shorts are being squeezed, but overall leverage still favors longs. If the next wave of liquidations shifts toward ETH and SOL longs, then this short squeeze in Bitcoin may just be a short-covering event.A friend told me that historically, after the midterm elections, $BTC always declines. This period is not suitable for leveraging or trading contracts. Well, let's look at the price performance of $BTC in November of 2014, 2018, and 2022. 2014: First, looking at 2014, in Figure 1, you can see that the 200-day moving average on the daily chart is still downward, and the price is still completely suppressed by the 200-day moving average. Moreover, the price hasn't even broken through the downtrendA trader publicly revealed their consecutive short positions on $BTC at 87000, 84000, 80000, and 78500, while also announcing a plan to reverse to long at 72888. This "short to long" turning point is not an arbitrarily drawn line but a defensive line locked by triple logic. First, from a technical perspective, 72888 is not an ordinary support but an area with highly concentrated chips after a deep decline. $BTC has been continuously suppressed downward from the 80000 level; if it really drops near 72000, it means panic selling has been completely cleared, and long leverage is almost wiped out. Entering long at this "bloody" position leaves very narrow defense space, pushing the risk-reward ratio to the extreme—precisely the odds structure that contrarian traders desire. Next, looking at the capital side's bottom line: the overall position cost of the Strategy is about 75446 USD. Once the price falls to 72888, it breaks through the defense line of the world's largest long institution. The supporting funds will most likely defend this deep water zone with spot holdings, preventing the price from collapsing easily. Coupled with severe overselling in short-term indicators after continuous heavy drops, conditions for a retaliatory rebound are accumulating. The entry plan is fixed: place a long order directly at 72888; if it continues to dip to 72500, add to the position; set a strict stop loss below 71500—if it breaks effectively, it means the large structure is completely broken, accept defeat and exit without holding the position. The first target is 74500; after stabilizing there, look towards 75500 or even 76800. Take most profits at 74500, and use trailing stop loss to push the remaining position upward. Hold coins and watch if the position is not reached.Kept refreshing all night
The close was okay
Nasdaq +0.83%, tech stocks stopped falling. Everything reversed in the after-hours within an hour
Ossoff held Georgia, Cooper flipped North Carolina. Kalshi shows 97% for the House, 90% for the Senate. Nasdaq futures dropped 1.6% straight away.
The House flipping blue was priced in before the election. What the market was really digesting last night was the Senate
With both chambers in hand, the legislative path is fully open. Data center restrictions, AI regulation, tax hikes—things that were previously blocked in the Senate now have a chance to go through.
AMD’s earnings clearly blew expectations, after-hours surged double digits, but the market pulled it back to just 4%
The policy expectations for the entire AI sector were rewritten within an hour.
BTC dropped below 77,000. The pro-Republican crypto optimism after the 2024 election now has to be discounted.
My judgment: post-election night after-hours volatility is overreaction seven or eight times out of ten. Votes are still being counted.
But this time there’s a variable different from previous years—AI
Previously, flips affected traditional industries; this time it hits the most crowded sector of the past two years directly.
If it’s confirmed today that both chambers flip blue, tech stocks will need to reprice a round of policy risk. Fundamentals aren’t broken. But the dividends previously assumed to continue may no longer do so.
Sure enough, I didn’t sleep well last night. Daily report is here, why is it continuously declining😭To pour some cold water first, when I see large withdrawals, my first reaction is not "a whale is about to pump the market," but rather what exactly this transfer can prove. My judgment is: the emotional impact of this news might be greater than its proof of new buying pressure, so don't get excited too quickly.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a wallet created 3 months ago has withdrawn about 69,125,000 PONS and 5,887 ETH from OKX in the past 12 hours, totaling approximately $27.42 million. I don't take this directly as a strong positive signal for two reasons: withdrawals only indicate assets leaving the exchange, not that these coins were just bought; custody adjustments can also cause similar movements. The wallet withdrew two types of assets simultaneously but did not provide any subsequent usage, so we cannot conclude it is betting on PONS. Especially for those following PONS, counting the entire dollar value as new buying pressure can easily amplify emotions.
Of course, the bullish side might also be right. If we later see continuous net withdrawals and more evidence pointing to new purchases rather than simple relocation, I will increase my attention to tightening supply. Conversely, if it is just transfers between addresses, this story needs to be discounted. I usually separate fund relocation from real demand first; what I will focus on next is the destination of the assets, not how impressive the transfer amount looks.$DOOD
The sector report at 10 o'clock said Meme is relatively strong, so I casually scanned the meme on OKX, and it really is—BONK +1.5, PUMP +4.4, PEPE +0.5, DOGE only -1.
Only DOOD is the opposite. In 24 hours it dropped from 0.001877 to 0.001665, -9.6%, the daily low just came out on that recent candle.
At 8 o'clock, 515,000 contracts were placed, the previous candle had 185,000, and the one before that only 47,000, triple volume pushing down. After the dump, volume shrank back to 120,000, but the price kept probing lower. No one is taking it, that's what it means.
Positions hold $1.67 million, fee rate +0.005%, longs are still paying. Shorts are not piling up; the ones pushing down are not shorts but longs withdrawing.
This round of meme is differentiated, not all falling together. Picking the right sector but the wrong stocks is still wasted effort. I just told myself this last week.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ A whale is increasing short positions on Anthropic pre-market contracts. Is there something wrong with Anthropic?
#Anthropic营收暴增1127%，能否支撑IPO高估值？
On-chain monitoring shows that a certain whale is continuously increasing short positions on Anthropic pre-market contracts, with short positions reaching about $25.43 million and still increasing. Anthropic is expected to go public in about half a month, with the market expecting a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, while the implied market value of pre-market contracts has already reached about $1.8 trillion.
I believe the core reason for shorting at this time is caution over valuation premiums.
The S-1 shows explosive revenue growth, but computing power commitments are as high as about $895 billion, much of which is non-cancellable; net losses are mainly due to non-cash items such as changes in the fair value of convertible bonds. Coupled with the recent pullback in the AI sector and decreased risk appetite, pre-market pricing is optimistic, and shorts are betting that the premium will be compressed when the IPO pricing or sentiment retracts.
My view:
Anthropic's fundamentals have not "gone wrong"; its revenue trajectory remains one of the strongest in the AI field, operations are close to break-even, and demand is real. However, the current valuation demands extremely high future growth and computing power utilization rates, and short-term sentiment and pricing disagreements truly exist. Pre-market contracts are synthetic derivatives with high volatility and do not equal actual equity.
Operational advice:
Consider opening a grid between 150–230, using volatility to sell high and buy low, controlling leverage and position size to avoid heavy one-sided positions. Volatility may increase before and after the IPO, so be sure to set stop-losses $ANTHROPIC $BTC
I wrote in the early morning, "BTC fell in the first three midterm elections, but it didn't fall this time," but as soon as the vote counting started in the morning, BTC dropped from 78049 all the way down to 76670, a 1.8% drop. My face is a bit swollen.
The drop was quite significant. At 8 o'clock, the one-hour candle showed 598,000 contracts traded, while the previous one had only 220,000, nearly triple the volume.
But over 24 hours, it only fell 0.29%. Open interest dropped from 2.506 billion to 2.494 billion, down 12 million, just a light drizzle. The fee rate is still at 0.01%, and the bulls are still paying. The volume was smashed out, but the price didn't follow through to the bottom.
Kalshi and Polymarket's midterm election contracts hit 1.9 billion USD, setting a cycle record, with the Democrats sweeping priced at 75%. All five positions betting on the Republicans lost, with an unrealized loss of 620,000. These people, like me, got the direction wrong; the difference is they lost real money, I lost just a judgment.
The panic index is 26. At this level, I won't make a move; when volume is much fiercer than price, cutting positions is like handing a knife to the opponent.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $BTC $ETH short positions held up yesterday, 78000 almost wiped out Beichen!
Yesterday morning Beichen said, Bitcoin directly enters at 77500, Ethereum synchronizes at 2280. But at night, it first got slapped, Bitcoin surged all the way to 78063, Ethereum to 2309. Honestly, that position was tough for Beichen too, the stop loss was just a little off.
But Beichen didn’t let the brothers run. Because the logic from the morning didn’t change: institutions are withdrawing, retail investors are adding longs, under this structure the rebound won’t go far. And look at this high point, 78063 is even lower than the previous day’s 78254, lower each time, indicating the bulls are getting weaker each time.
The price dropped in the late night. Now Bitcoin is at 76977, this position turned from loss to profit; Ethereum at 2256, also from loss to profit. Brothers who followed this should have made some gains~
So what’s next? Beichen’s idea is to hold but not add. The reason is simple, Friday’s non-farm payroll data hasn’t come out yet, that data can completely determine the direction, adding positions now is like betting prematurely. Also, Bitcoin has been consolidating around 77,000 for four days; the longer the sideways, the harsher the breakout.
So the strategy is simple: hold existing short positions, protect floating profits down to the cost line, do not open new ones or add. Wait for Friday!
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $ZEC: Short!
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 1205-1215 range (EMA5/10/20 dense resistance zone and near the long position average cost line), then enter short after resistance.
· The target is first 1120 (24-hour low); if it breaks down effectively, then look at the 1100 round number. Set stop loss above 1235 (short position average cost line).
Core basis:
1. Moving average resistance and weak rebound: On the 1-hour level, the price rebounded from the bottom but was clearly resisted near 1250, and has now broken below EMA5/10/20 lines again. The rebound volume is shrinking, which is a typical downward continuation pattern, with moving averages currently forming strong resistance at 1200-1207.
2. Absolute dominance of shorts: Figure 1 shows the nominal long-short ratio is only 19.89%, with short positions as high as 186 million U (5 times that of longs!). The short average cost is at 1247, currently holding a large profit defense space.
3. Heavy selling pressure from deeply trapped longs: The long average cost is 1222, currently at a loss. Any rebound above will face long position stop-loss selling; the main force will definitely not lift to relieve losses, so following the trend to short has an excellent risk-reward ratio.
$BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $CRCL earnings report tonight, I am not particularly optimistic about an upside surprise.
USDC circulation is still increasing
But reserve yields are falling
Distribution costs (especially those paid to Coinbase) are too high, and core profit margins have been continuously squeezed
In past quarters, EPS often barely beat estimates while revenue missed, and the market's tolerance for the "interest business" has declined. Let's first look at the real RLDC and the quality of circulation before deciding the next steps.
The company's revenue heavily depends on USDC reserve interest, and the decline in interest rates has repeatedly offset circulation growth.
Distribution costs have long been disproportionately high (Coinbase is the largest), resulting in limited "leftover" profits.
Recent analysis remains cautious about core business growth and margin improvement; contributions from new businesses like Arc still need verification.
The stock price itself is highly volatile, often reacting to earnings reports with "better than expected but no rise" or "superficial beat but poor details." To start with the conclusion: $BTC will continue to decline this week,
Don’t rush to refute,
Let me explain the reasons.
First, the non-farm payroll data will be released on Friday,
The forecast is 65,000,
Last month it was 29,000,
Comparatively, the forecast already expects an increase.
So, when the data is released,
If it is higher than or even close to the forecast,
It will cause a drop.
Secondly, the last data release
Shocked many people at the time,
It was too low!
So this time it is veryIn the futures market, when I see a concentrated withdrawal of warehouse receipts, I usually first distinguish whether it is just inventory relocation or a real change in supply and demand. This message also made me think that while on-chain transfers are visible, the trading intentions behind them are not necessarily clear.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a wallet created 3 months ago has withdrawn about 69.125 million PONS and 5,887 ETH from OKX in the past 12 hours, with a total value of approximately 27.42 million USD. I prefer to treat this as a liquidity observation signal rather than directly considering it as a bullish sign.
There are two reasons: withdrawing tokens itself does not equal new buy orders, so it cannot be taken as confirmation of increased buying pressure; if the tradable supply decreases and the order book thins after the transfer, ordinary users may face greater slippage, which is my speculation. The crypto market has this on-chain window that traditional futures lack, but seeing the movement does not mean understanding the demand. Are there friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? For this kind of news, do you first check the exchange balance or look at the order book depth?$SNDK Let's review yesterday's short positions, did you follow along?
First, the midterm election results came out, and the trend shifted immediately.
Subsidy approvals slowed down, interest rate cut expectations were postponed, and semiconductor policies toward China might become stricter. The previously supporting loose expectations that justified SanDisk's high valuation disappeared, so funds started to flow out, and high-priced stocks were hit first. 1150 is exactly at a resistance level, making it a perfect timing to short.
Second, price hikes peaked + guidance fell short of expectations, a double negative pressure.
Kioxia clearly stated that NAND price increases are cooling down, and downstream cloud providers are no longer stocking up; SanDisk's earnings report looks good, but next quarter's revenue guidance is far below institutional expectations. All the good news at high prices has been fully priced in, and any slight miss will cause a big drop. At this price, all positive expectations are already factored in, so it can't hold.
Third, the price movement is off.
Previously, it rose dozens of times, and high-level chips were already loose. After the earnings report, it dropped for two consecutive days without stabilizing. Last night at the open, it directly hit 1155, just touching the short-term resistance zone. If it can't break through, it will fall.
Midterm view: elections suppress valuation, industry pressures profits, and the price is at a resistance level. With all three combined, shorting at 1150 is following the major trend. In the short term, watch for support at 1000; if broken, look further down to 850. Set defense at 1180.Binance Research says BTC on average rises 54% one year after midterm elections. IOSG's sample is similar, 53.8%.
Sounds great, right? Once the election ends, just hold your eyes closed for a year, and your assets increase by half.
But this 54% this year might not have a dime to do with you.
Because the premise for the historical average to hold is that the starting point is "normal." And the three starting points in 2026—U.S. stocks, BTC, and liquidity—none are near the median.
The average is a summary of the past, not a guaranteed minimum return for you this year.
The position of U.S. stocks is off: the drop wasn't deep enough.
Historically, the median maximum drawdown of U.S. stocks in the year before midterms is 16%.
This year? From June until now, the S&P 500's maximum drop is only 4.5%, the second smallest drawdown for the same period since 1962.
Morgan Stanley's mentioned 9% peak-to-trough is considered a "light injury" historically.
The key is here: the post-midterm rise is money "recovering." The deeper the drop, the bigger the recovery space.
This year, after only a 4.5% drop, waiting for a "big post-election rebound" means there's barely any room to recover.
BTIG puts it more bluntly: "The stock market often performs well in November of midterm election years because it has already dropped thoroughly before the election. This year is exactly the opposite."
What should have dropped hasn't, what should have hurt hasn't. How much of that 54% average is "space created by the drop"? This year, there is none.
BTC's position is also off: this is not a bear-to-bull transition, but a crowded betting table of bulls and bears.
In the three cycles IOSG analyzed, BTC was mostly in early recovery after a deep bear market at election time—fully dropped, shorts cleared, chips clean.
This time?
BTC peaked at 126,000 in October 2025, retraced about 50%, now bottoming around 76,000–78,000. Today it barely returned near $77,800, with volatility significantly reduced.
But what's pressing underneath? CME shorts have piled up to $2.2 billion, about 29,220 BTC.
This is not a clean starting point. This is a betting table where both bulls and bears have heavily staked.
Concentrated shorts mean two possibilities: a short squeeze upward, or shorts are right and it goes down. The average +54% assumes a market where "shorts have already surrendered." This year shorts not only haven't surrendered, they're adding positions.
Liquidity is even more off: inflows during report writing, outflows during election week.
When IOSG wrote the report, ETFs were still part of the net inflow narrative.
By election week, the tone changed abruptly.
On November 2, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $400 million; BlackRock's IBIT had a single-day outflow of $405 million, the largest since June 26. Fidelity's FBTC and ARKB also withdrew; no mainstream ETF recorded net inflows.
Selling pressure concentrated on the most liquid leading products. This is institutions adjusting total positions, not retail panic.
More painfully, the annual ledger: since 2026 began, U.S. spot BTC ETF net inflows have officially turned negative. Money that was flowing in at the end of October was fully withdrawn in the first two days of November.
The +54% in historical averages assumes liquidity is a tailwind. This year's liquidity, at least at this starting point, is flowing out.
U.S. stocks: didn't drop enough → recovery space compressed
BTC: shorts that should have cleared haven't → starting point not clean
Liquidity: inflows turned outflows → no driving force
Three starting points, none cooperating with that +54%.
IOSG buried the biggest warning themselves: "Historical averages are for understanding direction, not for setting return targets."
Direction can be somewhat optimistic. But don't fool yourself with a 54% target.
History doesn't give promises, it gives a topographic map.
The map tells you: the probability of an upward direction one year after midterms is high. BTC's three samples all were higher after one year.
But the map doesn't tell you how bumpy the road is. BTC's median return three months after the election is -31%, only after one year is +45%. Not everyone can endure that middle period.
This year's terrain is more special: no cheap chips, no clean shorts, no tailwind liquidity.
What there is, is just a crowded betting table.
The average tells you "it will rise," but not "from where it will rise, or whether it will throw you off before rising."
54% is someone else's average; your account only has 0% or 100%.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC USDC earned $1.4 billion in half a year, but the final net profit was only 7%! Is Circle's stablecoin business really as profitable as imagined?
On November 4th, USDC issuer Circle will release its Q3 earnings report.
The market expects revenue of about $800 million, with earnings per share around $0.40. But more worth watching than whether the earnings beat expectations is how much money the stablecoin business actually retains.
① $1.4 billion revenue, where did the money go?
$CRCL disclosed that revenue for the first half of 2026 was about $1.4 billion.
Of that, $819 million went to channel commissions and transaction-related costs, accounting for about 59%.
Another approximately $473 million was invested in operations, compliance, and infrastructure.
In the end, for every $1 earned, net profit only retained about 7 cents.
② Federal Reserve rate cuts may actually impact profits
Circle mainly relies on interest income generated from USDC reserve assets.
In Q2, USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, but total revenue and reserve income for the quarter only grew 7% year-over-year.
③ What to focus on in this earnings report?
Not just whether revenue exceeded expectations, but three things:
Whether USDC circulation continues to expand.
Whether reserve income can offset the impact of declining interest rates.
Whether the proportion of channel costs has improved.
#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ $BTC is hovering above 77,000, up only 0.28%, almost unchanged, with the fear index at 34 still stuck in the fear zone.
Ethereum climbed back to 2,276, but the ETF lost over 1 billion USD in the past two days, institutions haven't returned at all.
Tonight's ADP and ISM Services PMI are the real tests; once employment heats up, rate cut expectations will be pushed back again.
On the A-shares side, the ChiNext Index pulled up, Baijiu Huangtai Liquor had a 4-day winning streak, and the chip sector jumped following Yunnan Germanium's big order of 900,000 indium phosphide wafers.
But insurance and banks are dragging behind, volume is shrinking while prices rise, and the gains are all stories, not real money.
The US stock market is the most divided: the Nasdaq rose 0.83%, Nvidia and Microsoft are recovering, but Apple’s gross margin dropped nearly 2% again due to memory price hikes.
The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong opened down 74 points, Xiaomi fell nearly 2%, tech stocks are weak, and WuXi AppTec briefly resisted the trend but couldn't hold the market.
The most chaotic is commodities: sometimes US-Iran say no plans to fight, then rumors say plans are ready; oil prices first plunged then pulled back, gold is hovering around 3,923,
and copper was directly smashed to a seven-week low.
Money is just this limited; money is taken from one place and leaks from another, nowhere is stable.On voting day, BTC couldn't even hold above 78,000.
This morning in Asia, Bitcoin hovered around $77,000, up slightly by 0.28% in 24 hours. The CMC Fear and Greed Index dropped to 33, officially entering the "Fear" zone. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network was $282 million, with longs accounting for $211 million.
Everyone is waiting for one answer: will the Democrats win or the Republicans, and which is better for crypto?
But the real answer isn't in the ballot box; it's in the calendar.
The CLARITY Act procedural vote in the Senate on September 15 ended 49:50, not even reaching the 60-vote threshold.
The controversy isn't about "whether to regulate." The dispute lies in the ethics clauses and stablecoin yield structures—both parties are deadlocked on the details.
What does this mean? Changing the majority party won't solve it with a single click. Changing the majority just moves the same argument to another meeting room to replay.
So what does the election actually change?
TD Cowen's judgment is straightforward: if the Democrats take both chambers, Warren might become chair of the Senate Banking Committee, described as "the worst election outcome for cryptocurrency."
But note the next sentence: Warren cannot stop regulators from adopting policies favorable to crypto.
To translate: the election changes the legislative pace, not the regulatory endpoint. And a slowed legislative pace means the "certainty premium" for the CLARITY Act is pushed back by at least one congressional cycle.
The election is likely not a catalyst for crypto legislation. It is a delay mechanism.
BTC spot ETFs have seen a cumulative outflow of $859 million over nearly six trading days, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing a single-day outflow of $233.7 million. Since 2026 began, the net inflow for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has officially turned negative.
On-chain whales are buying, ETFs are selling. At the institutional level above $80,000, there is no willingness to absorb.
Why?
The probability of a rate hike in December is 79%, according to CME data. Legislative windows pushed back + unresolved rate hike pressure = institutions prefer holding cash and waiting rather than chasing an asset with "unclear rules."
This has nothing to do with who wins the election.
Many treat the midterm elections as a "policy catalyst" for BTC in trading.
But the election changes the political arithmetic when Congress restarts CLARITY in 2027.
It does not change the capital flow in Q4 2026.
And the latter is the direct source of your account's profit and loss.
So what should you watch?
Not CNN's seat count.
Watch whether ETF funds can stop bleeding after the November 6 nonfarm payrolls. Before that, BTC will likely hover between 76K-78K, with 76,000 as core support; breaking below targets 74,000-74,900.
The rebound is structural, not a trend. The election cannot change this structure.
Don't treat the ballot as a candlestick chart.
The election provides a four-year narrative; ETFs provide daily buying and selling.
You trade the latter, not the former.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ There was a number I read three times: The South Korean stock market triggered 6,646 volatility halts in October, 1.8 times that of August.
Volatility halts sound serious, but actually, the exchange is just afraid that machine quotes will run wild, so it forcibly pauses trading for a few minutes. 6,646 times in a month means the market basically never had continuous quotes.
KOSPI fell 16.19% for the whole month, for two reasons: no one believes the AI profit story anymore, and the US company CoreWeave has credit issues again.
I used to think a 16% drop was a big deal. Now I feel it's actually more straightforward to drop all at once; what's painful is being forcibly halted several times every day at market open. $BTC $ETH Asian buying is probably drained the same way.This is quite interesting, but at first glance, what I want to look at is not how strong the direction is, but how much room for error the position size allows for judgment. After studying high-volatility assets for a long time, I first remove the "large order filter" and then see how it withstands reverse volatility. 👀
This time, the wallet Core Trader 97 (0x940acf…7e639) opened a short position on $HYPE with 10x leverage, with a notional value of about $554,500, referencing a price of $83.1. This is an opening signal; the result is not out yet, so it cannot be prematurely considered a successful bearish case.
My judgment is: the key to this trade is not the large amount, but whether the leverage and volatility match. Based on the notional value, the initial margin is roughly $55,500; ignoring fees and margin adjustments, if the price rises 1% against the position, the floating loss is about 10% of the initial margin, so the tolerance is not wide.
High volatility offers shorts the opportunity to realize gains faster; the risk is that even if the direction is correct later, the interim pullback may hurt the position first. This is my scenario analysis; based on this monitoring alone, I cannot see his stop loss and margin arrangements.
I will continue to observe whether this address adds or reduces positions and how it handles reverse volatility, rather than taking the short amount as evidence of direction; first, see how the risk is managed, then see if the judgment can be realized. 46 hours, $11 billion withdrawn. Binance was not brought down by hackers, but by a run from its own users.
Hackers stole $6.3 billion, and Binance fully compensated with the SAFU fund. But users lost trust.
Within 46 hours after the withdrawal channels reopened, users withdrew $10.97 billion in cryptocurrency and cash from Binance. Withdrawals exceeded deposits by $5.28 billion. During the most panic-stricken hour, outflows exceeded inflows by $936 million.
CZ spoke out, and current CEO Changpeng Zhao also addressed the situation, stating strong liquidity and total assets of $171 billion. But data doesn't lie: once trust is broken, no amount of compensation can fix it.
The US FBI blamed the North Korean hacker group TraderTraitor. But retail investors don't care who did it; they only care if their coins are still there.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？