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#Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？
【Oklo Q3 Earnings Report: Is This the Future Energy Giant or the Biggest Story of the AI Era?】
Q3 revenue was only $1.86 million, but net loss exceeded $41 million.
However, the company has cash and marketable debt securities totaling $3.131 billion.
This is the biggest contradiction with Oklo: plenty of money on the books, a big story, but the real ability to make money has yet to be proven.
I have always believed that one of the biggest bottlenecks of the AI revolution is energy. Data centers need power, and nuclear energy could become an important answer for the future.
But here’s the question: is the market investing in a nuclear energy company, or is it prematurely betting on an AI energy dream that hasn’t been realized yet?
The $3.1 billion capital reserve certainly gives it a lot of room for imagination, but having sufficient funds doesn’t guarantee project success, and AI needing power doesn’t mean Oklo will necessarily get a piece of that pie.
If future projects are successfully implemented, today’s losses might just be investments before commercialization.
But if progress falls short of expectations, who will pay for the current high valuation?
I am optimistic about the future of nuclear energy, but that doesn’t mean I’m willing to pay any price for a story that hasn’t been fulfilled yet.
Do you think Oklo is the next energy giant, or the next AI concept stock overhyped by the market?$BTC has managed to hold the critical $75,000 support level, but looking at the 4-hour chart, I remain cautious about the possibility of a recovery. Bitcoin experienced a massive bearish candle, falling sharply from $81,944 and significantly weakening bullish momentum. It is now hovering around $76,140, giving the impression that a temporary bottom may have formed. However, the moving average structure tells a different story. EMA20, EMA50, and EMA100 are all positioned above the current price,#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？
The boss has something to say
I saw this about SoftBank, connected with today's Anthropic IPO delay and Berkshire Hathaway hoarding cash: SoftBank will release FY26 Q2 results on November 10, having invested a total of $64.6 billion in OpenAI, and is still negotiating a 50 billion deal to build a data center in Malaysia. But the community reminds us that SoftBank is betting on OpenAI with junk bonds yielding about 10%, its stock price has dropped 50% from the June peak, and CDS has risen to 432 basis points. Today's +8.6% looks more like a rebound after a crash.
My interpretation is: SoftBank is the most leveraged player in the AI bubble. OpenAI's own valuation is shrinking, related data center IPOs are delayed, and SoftBank's structure of betting on an unlisted giant through bond issuance means that once the AI narrative weakens, it will be the first to be squeezed out. For the crypto world, this is another gauge of AI risk appetite—SoftBank's CDS rising and Anthropic's IPO delay both indicate the market is starting to reassess the sustainability of AI's cash burn.
BTC current price is about 74,500, I remain out of position. My take: tonight's rate hike trade dominates, 75,000 is resistance, looking down to 73,000; this kind of AI leverage story has nothing to do with BTC in the short term, but the direction is consistent—they are both waiting for this wave of the dollar to pass. Light positions over the weekend, no leverage.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Nonfarm payrolls 165,000? You're pulling my leg again. Every time there's off-market panic, it's an on-market trading opportunity. Still sticking to the plan to be bullish on Bitcoin.
Currently, go long on BTC at 75,000-75,500! Set stop loss at 74,000, targets at 77,500 and 78,500. #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 A couple of days ago, I said to go long at 76, clearly stating there's a high probability of a lower point. Bitcoin came as expected. Currently, 76 counts as a valid breakout. So there's a high chance it will go near 725. As for Ethereum, I think it also has a lower point, at least breaking below 2150 once. I'm a bit confused about ZEC. Although I've always thought 1048 is the bottom, it has been strong so far. Nothing else, if you want to bottom-fish, wait around 725. The trend is really diffic$AFRM
Will Affirm's expanding transaction volume also amplify credit risk?
Affirm is on the post-market watchlist following this week's earnings. Growth in installment business depends on both merchant and consumer usage, as well as funding costs, delinquencies, and loan sale conditions. Transaction volume does not directly represent distributable profits.
If financing costs are controlled, delinquencies remain stable, and unit transaction yields improve, expansion is healthier; if volume growth relies on looser credit, I would downgrade the quality of growth and first study whether losses appear with a lag.#Nonfarm Payroll Data Boosts Rate Hike Expectations
【Follow Old Chive Wealth You Have】! The US added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, far exceeding the market expectation of 65,000; the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month.
This data sends an important signal:
The US economy is not as weak as the market imagines, and the Federal Reserve may not ease monetary policy so quickly.
According to Reuters, after the nonfarm data release, the market's probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in December rose to about 85%, up from about 75% previously.
Why is this unfavorable for the crypto market?
The logic is simple:
Strong employment → rising rate hike expectations → interest rates may remain high → dollar and bond yields move in opposite directions under pressure → risk asset valuations face pressure.
I think the key points to watch next are:
Whether BTC can maintain spot buying under macro pressure;
Whether ETH/BTC continues to weaken;
Whether altcoins see more obvious capital outflows than BTC;
Whether the US CPI on November 10 can ease rate hike concerns.
But don't misunderstand: the market raising the probability of a rate hike does not mean the Fed has already decided to hike.
Old Chive's observation: the short-term macro environment is bearish, so no rush to bottom-fish altcoins for now.
What really matters is not guessing the Fed, but observing whether the dollar, US bond yields, and crypto market capital flows resonate.
Macro determines the direction, capital determines the trend. $BTC $ETH $SOL ⚡ RWA INTELLIGENCE | TETHER × REDSTONE
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BitChoice | Satya
$USDT $USDS Stay Bearish on Bitcoin $BTC – The Bigger Downside May Still Be Ahead! I'm maintaining my bearish outlook on Bitcoin. The market has not necessarily reached its bottom yet, and the $72,000 level remains my next downside target. For now, I don't think rushing into long positions is a good idea. The recent selling pressure is too strong, and short-term market conditions remain extremely uncertain. Last night, the Democrats delivered an unexpected political shock, triggering a sharp sell-off in th#AAOIQ3营收同比增长128%，连续六季创新高 I stared blankly at SOXL's intraday chart for three seconds, then quietly closed the page. Have you ever had that feeling—not that you can't afford to lose, but suddenly you just don't want to guess what the US side is thinking anymore? Last night's tug-of-war with semiconductor leverage really shattered my illusion that "short-term trading in US stocks is easy money." It's not about direction judgment; the rhythm is simply not in my hands: a surge at the open, repeated fluctuations during the session, and a closing move that catches you off guard. That feeling of being led by overnight sentiment is more exhausting than losing money. So I decided to return to the crypto world I'm familiar with, at least here I recognize the breathing rhythm. Back to the main point. This idea of "returning from US stocks to crypto" is not just mine. I've observed a subtle preference shift: when high-volatility assets outside start to become unpredictable, some funds instinctively contract to places with more focused narratives and more continuous trading sessions. BTC's recent performance is a projection of this psychology—it hasn't exploded, but every dip finds buyers, indicating that people willing to hold at this level are still around. This isn't frenzy; it's a compromise bullishness of "too lazy to fuss anymore." I agree with this mostly bullish logic: if the outside world continues to disappoint, the crypto space, as a relatively familiar battlefield, will absorb some of the returning attention. BTC stabilizes first, then ETH and major altcoins get a chance to catch their breath. But the risk is obvious—this return flow is driven by sentiment, not incremental capital. Once US stocks offer a sweet deal again, attention will drift away. Also, BTC's current stability feels more like no one is selling rather than someone aggressively buying; this kind of "passive stability" is actually...Respecting the market is right — but $70,000 needs $75,000 to break first, and it hasn't. $BTC has held $75,000 all day through the jobs beat, at $75,736 now. Lose $75,000 and the road to $72,000, then $70,000, opens fast. Until then, the call is loud but the level is louder. Are you shorting the break or waiting for it? #Bitcoin #BTC #USJobsBeatExpectationsThe jobs beat did two things to $BTC: it proved the economy is still standing, and it pushed December rate-cut hopes further out. $BTC didn't flinch — still holding $75,853 above $75,000 support. The December decision is now the market's next cliff. Resistance $76,873. What moves $BTC first — the Fed or the next ETF flow print? #Bitcoin #BTC #USJobsBeatExpectations. His Trump Media company has started liquidating Bitcoin, selling as much as 99.99% of its holdings! The company sold 4,259 BTC, equivalent to $343.67 million. The timing of this large-scale sell-off is very delicate: the Democratic Party is preparing to investigate the crypto industry and the financial connections between the Trump family and crypto assets. This batch of Bitcoin holdings once peaked at a market value of $1.4 billion in 2025, but now has been almost entirely cashed out. #美股遭大幅抛The OI gap among BTC, ETH, and SOL is significant, with altcoin leverage distribution even more dispersed
Sharpe.ai 10:00
UTC statistics: BTC about $32.29 billion, ETH about $18.67 billion, $SOL about $3.59 billion. The position sizes of BTC and ETH are much larger than SOL, but SOL's volatility per unit of liquidity is easier to amplify. Position amount is not the risk rate; what really needs to be compared are OI changes, trading depth, and price amplitude.
#VanEck与富兰克林推出含BTC配置的新型ETF #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 The most vulnerable link is actually not the price itself. Have you noticed that what really kept people awake last night was leverage, not the candlestick chart? Last night, global risk assets generally weakened, but BTC stubbornly held around 75000, and ETH didn’t drop below 2200. On the surface, it looks like they "held up," but when I was watching the market, I paid more attention to another thing: how much high-leverage positions in the derivatives structure were liquidated during the decline. The original author said they didn’t open a BTC long position and also closed their MSTR trend position, then turned to look at relatively cheap targets like PURR. This action itself indicates that risk appetite is contracting, not expanding. Some signals I noticed: - BTC and ETH holding key levels indicates that spot selling pressure is not out of control, but holding does not mean strengthening. - High-leverage positions without stop-loss are hard to survive such a night; forced deleveraging will amplify short-term volatility. - HYPE has given back most of its historical gains, returning to previous lows; such high-beta assets weakening often reflect a cooling of speculative sentiment earlier than the broader market. - The original text mentioned "all coins returning to previous lows," which sounds like an opportunity, but from another perspective, it’s also evidence that capital is unwilling to pay a premium in advance for a rebound. My understanding is that the market is currently trading not on "bad news fully priced in," but on "survival first." The bullish path is clear: near previous lows, stop-loss space is small, and once support is effective, the rebound elasticity will be large, especially for fundamentally sound assets that have already fallen sufficiently. But the risk is also hidden here—if BTC breaks below 75000 and ETH falls below 22 To get rich, you have to bet big.
Now it's bad, even the underwear is tied up.
A few days ago, the whole network was hyping that new address, but today it completely collapsed.
At that time, he chased ETH up with $14,760,000, with an unrealized profit of $470,000, looking like a war god.
But today, when the market crashed, this guy not only didn’t run, just now he forcibly withdrew 3,500 ETH from a certain exchange, forcibly pulling the average price up to 2305.
Got it?
This is called buying more as the price falls; he has already poured $22,530,000 in a single week.
But the current cost is: an unrealized loss of $640,000.
Retail investors get scared and cut losses after losing a few hundred dollars, but this guy lost hundreds of thousands and is still holding on and adding positions.
This is not "betting big," this is basically signing a death pact with the market manipulators.
Now Bitcoin has directly smashed below 76,000, and Ethereum has dropped to 2,300.
Will this whale be able to counterattack from the brink and catch the bottom, or will he be liquidated and sent off tonight?
The above is only a personal review and does not constitute any trading advice.
$ETH $BTC $AAVE
Regarding fixed interest rates, Aave has truly taken a step forward this time. Labs has acquired the Avon team and technology; fixed and variable lending, as well as on-chain order books, are all within the scope of the deal, and the team will remain to continue development.
I view this news somewhat positively, but I wouldn’t directly attribute tonight’s price increase to it. AAVE spot is quoted at 131.61, with a 24-hour low of 122.13 and high of 133.32; perpetual positions are about $14.79 million, with a funding rate of 0.01%. The price has rebounded from the low, but contract size remains small; news hype and new capital inflow are not the same.
The Avon terms have not been disclosed, and there are currently no answers on when the fixed interest rate product will launch or who will use it. The direction is set, but implementation still needs to wait.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 As of the time of writing, the US stock market shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.31%, the S&P 500 up 0.80%, and the Nasdaq up 1.57%, potentially recovering part of Thursday's losses.
Yesterday, semiconductor and memory chip stocks that had plunged rebounded strongly: AMD surged over 10%, Micron Technology and SanDisk rose over 7%, Western Digital climbed over 6%, Intel gained over 5%, and SK Hynix, Seagate Technology, and Broadcom increased over 4%.
$BTC $SNDK $SKHYNIX #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $ZEC
ZEC has passed 1360, but this time I'm not rushing to treat the upgrade news as fuel. NU7 has already been activated, the protocol changes are solid, and the price reaction is indeed strong.
However, the market isn't that clean. OKX spot is currently at 1356.95, with a 24-hour low of 1213.56 and a high of 1387.89; perpetual positions are about $190 million, and the current funding rate is 0.01%. It has risen a lot, and leverage hasn't exited; those chasing after the surge are not having it easy.
I prefer to see this phase as a re-pricing after the upgrade landing. Whether it can go far still depends on whether spot trading volume can keep up, rather than just focusing on breaking integer levels.
The panic near the recent low is still there, and above 1360 is not an automatic safe zone either. Let's first watch the volume and pullbacks, and talk less story.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 I think this round of meme coins only has speculative value, no allocation value.
Here's a harsh fact: the pricing factor for meme coins has never been fundamentals, but market risk appetite. Now that the appetite has collapsed, the meme sector has fallen 7.55% in 24 hours, the worst performer overall.
$DOGE is at 0.0723, down 6.2%; $PEPE is at 0.0000048, up 27% in 30 days, considered a survivor, but still took a hit today; $SHIB is clinging to the critical support at 0.00000448, breaking it means the next level down.
In this environment, meme coin positions should be cleared or minimized. Only when BTC stands back above 77000 and the fear index rises above 50 is further upside possible.Today is somewhat unusual; both bulls and bears are aggressively building positions before the non-farm payrolls. Has the US stock market been losing badly recently? Tonight feels quite scary. Wednesday's small non-farm ADP data was flat compared to the previous value, indicating stable employment. However, this data alone cannot serve as a forward-looking indicator. I believe employment between 50,000 and 100,000 meets expectations and allows the market to recover. If it's below 50,000 or even Interest rate hike expectations soar to 77%! Will Bitcoin bottom out or crash tonight?
The probability of an interest rate hike expectation has surged to 77%, liquidity expectations tighten again, directly adding another heavy bearish factor to BTC, which is already under pressure. Bitcoin is a risk asset highly sensitive to interest rates; in a high-interest-rate environment, funds prefer to flow into U.S. Treasuries for safety, and high-volatility assets face valuation suppression. This is the core reason for the recent continuous weakening of bullish confidence.
The current market faces two possible evolution paths:
✅ Bottoming scenario: Effective support near 75,000, leverage is mostly released, ETF outflow pace slows down. The market enters a long period of oscillation and bottoming, repeatedly shaking out positions to exhaust short sellers, but it is difficult to immediately start a strong rebound. 76,000 has become strong resistance, and selling pressure remains heavy when the price rebounds to this level.
❌ Crash risk: If the key support at 75,000 is broken with high volume, it will trigger a new round of cascading liquidations, passive sell-offs will surge, and the decline speed will significantly accelerate.
Judging the subsequent trend cannot rely solely on the interest rate hike expectation indicator; spot ETF fund flows and leverage levels are the core to verify strength or weakness. As long as ETFs continue net outflows, even if short-term stop-loss signals appear, it will only be weak oscillation.
During market weakness, altcoin risks are amplified. Assets like CORE, which have ongoing fundamental issues and shrinking liquidity, can easily experience independent downtrends. Interest rate hike expectations are just the fuse; fund withdrawal is the key factor determining the depth of the market movement.SNDK and SOXL combined liquidations exceed $100 million, AI trading is also deleveraging
Among the four exchanges' statistics, SNDK's 24-hour liquidation is about $55.34 million, SOXL about $52.09 million; both are mainly long liquidations. During the same period, $BTC liquidations were about $224 million. AI semiconductors and crypto assets are both under pressure, indicating that risk reduction is not limited to the crypto circle, and cross-market leverage is contracting simultaneously.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 October's 165K payroll gain was not an isolated upside surprise: the 84K upward revision to August and September adds weight to the strength, while 0.4% monthly wage growth complicates any easy policy pivot.
Higher Treasury yields reflect that reassessment. Still, one report cannot settle December policy; the durability of wage pressure remains the open question.
#USJobsBeatExpectations #The CLARITY Act faces setbacks, SEC regulatory authority may expand The CLARITY Act was originally a rights-confirmation bill anticipated by the crypto industry, with the core goal of delineating SEC and CFTC jurisdiction: classifying sufficiently decentralized tokens as digital commodities under CFTC oversight, narrowing the SEC's "Howey Test" discretionary space, and providing the market with clear classification standards. Now the bill failed a procedural vote in the Senate, compounded by the Democrats taking control of both chambers.
The bill's shelving means the industry's hoped-for "regulatory separation" has failed, allowing the SEC to continue applying the existing securities law framework and independently determine that the vast majority of tokens are securities, significantly expanding its enforcement scope. Exchanges, issuers, and DeFi protocols will face higher compliance pressure, and the previously expected regulatory certainty dividend in the market has directly disappeared.
On the market front, this news is bearish for crypto. Although spot ETFs have been approved, subsequent new project launches, token listings, and tokenized securities businesses will face stricter review standards; regulatory uncertainty around stablecoins and on-chain derivatives is rising again.
However, boundaries must be distinguished: the bill's failure does not equal a total ban, SEC enforcement will still be constrained by judicial precedents and will not expand without limits. In the medium to long term, it depends on whether the new Congress will introduce alternative versions or if the SEC will issue dedicated digital asset rules.
Key follow-ups: new SEC lawsuits against platforms and projects, tokenized asset approval criteria, and whether bipartisan compromise legislation emerges.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK $ZEC showed remarkable resilience yesterday as the US stock market experienced severe turbulence and $BTC came dangerously close to breaking below the critical $75,000 support level. Despite the broader market weakness, $ZEC moved in the opposite direction, pushing its daily high to $1,322. This kind of performance highlights its relative strength and shows that capital interest in the asset remains particularly strong. Looking at the daily chart, the $1,200–$1,210 support zone continues to hNon-farm payrolls surged by 165,000! BTC falls instead of rising; can 75K hold tonight?
Non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000, significantly exceeding market expectations. The data itself indicates strong economic resilience, but it is bearish for Bitcoin, directly suppressing rate cut expectations: an overheated job market will cause the Federal Reserve to pause its rate cut pace, U.S. Treasury yields rise, and a high-interest-rate environment puts pressure on liquidity-sensitive risk assets like BTC. This is the core logic behind BTC falling instead of rising after the data release.
The previous 76,000 support has already been broken, and the market focus has now shifted down to the critical 75,000 defense line.
✅ If 75,000 holds: it would be a short-term buffer, likely triggering a technical rebound, but since 76,000 has turned into strong resistance, it will be very difficult for the rebound to regain strength.
❌ If 75,000 is decisively broken with volume, a new round of cascading liquidations could easily be triggered, opening further downside.
Currently, two key indicators need close monitoring: spot ETF fund flows and whether long leverage positions are being concentratedly cleared. If ETFs continue to see net outflows, even if a short-term bottom forms near 75K, the sustainability of any rebound is questionable.
In a market under pressure, altcoin risks increase. Tokens like CORE, which have experienced cascading crashes and liquidity shrinkage, will be much less resilient than BTC. The macro shock from the non-farm data is just the fuse; the real determinant of market direction is whether institutional funds continue to withdraw.This nonfarm payrolls report exploded again, with October seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment increasing by 165,000, expected 65,000, previous 29,000.
This is definitely bearish for the market, but after last night's leak like this, there is no momentum for a second sell-off. A downward spike of several hundred points as a sign of respect, it feels like as long as it slightly meets expectations, it will be a big bullish candle.
Next week we still need to watch the probability of a December rate hike. This week might end like this, as long as it can hold steady tonight! $ZEC $BTC $ETH #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 BTC large orders net sold about $86 million, price rebound depends on active buying
Swiftedge order book report shows BTC large order net flow about -$86 million, 24-hour active buy-sell net flow biased to selling. Meanwhile, there is a sell wall above the order book and a buy wall below. Even if $BTC rebounds in the short term, it is necessary to confirm whether large active sell orders are converging; relying solely on order book support can easily lead to false stability.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 BTC falls below $75,000
📉 BTC officially fell below the $75,000 mark, dropping about 5% in 24 hours, quickly retracting from the high near 80,000 yesterday.
It has retraced nearly 40% from the historical high of about $126,000 in October 2025.
The main driver of this decline is clear: a major drop in US tech stocks, with the Nasdaq experiencing one of its worst single-day performances recently. The sell-off of AI-related stocks directly transmitted to the crypto market. Coupled with concentrated liquidations of leveraged long positions, the total market liquidation amount exceeded $1 billion in the past 24 hours, most of which were long positions.
Key levels are now very sensitive:
• 75,000 is an important psychological threshold; breaking below it increases short-term pressure
• The next support range is around 73,000–74,000
• To stabilize in the short term, BTC needs to reclaim and hold above 80,000
⚠️ A common pitfall: many rush to add leverage to buy the dip once a round number is broken. History repeatedly shows that after key levels are breached, there is often a secondary bottom test rather than an immediate reversal. When volatility increases, leverage amplifies losses, not opportunities.
For ordinary holders, this looks more like an adjustment caused by an overall decline in risk appetite rather than a sudden collapse of Bitcoin’s fundamentals. The two things to watch next are: first, whether ETF capital outflows continue, and second, whether upcoming macro data releases (especially non-farm payrolls) will further strengthen or ease this risk-off sentiment.
If BTC can quickly recover to the 75,000–76,000 range, it indicates that selling pressure has temporarily eased; if it continues to break down and test 73,000, the adjustment period may be prolonged.
Are you going to keep watching, reduce your position to lower volatility, or prepare to buy in batches at lower prices?
$BTC
#BTC #Bitcoin #Below75000 #CryptoMarket #MarketAnalysis #AvoidPitfallsGuide #OKXStar $ZEC nu7 upgrade big positive newsThis crash, the news is just the fuse
Last night, both the US stock market and the crypto market fell together, but blaming the news alone no longer explains it. In the previous major drops this year, once tariffs, war, or interest rate decisions were announced, a rebound followed—those were news-driven; this time it seems more like an internal buying problem.
Exchange trading revenue dropped by 43%, indicating fewer participants; treasury companies spent three times more on stock buybacks than on buying crypto, meaning funds for buying crypto were diverted to support stock prices; ETF funds flowed in and out without a stable direction. These three issues point to the same problem: marginal buying is drying up.
So don’t just focus on the nonfarm payrolls going forward. Nonfarm payrolls at most determine volatility for a day or two; what really decides whether there will be a market rally are three endogenous indicators: whether ETFs can have net inflows for a continuous week, when treasury companies will restart buying crypto, and whether trading activity can return. If none of these move, any rise is illusory; if one moves first, then it’s worth serious attention.
This wave is less the fault of the news and more the fault of the crypto market itself. The news is just the fuse; the buying is the underlying fire.
$BTC
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 November 6｜Global Market Analysis After US Nonfarm Payroll Release
The most important change today is: US employment data was significantly stronger than expected, but the market did not simply fall across the board; instead, there was a divergence with stock market rebound, US dollar strengthening, and gold under pressure.
1. Nonfarm Data: Clearly Hawkish
+165,000
US October Nonfarm Payrolls Added
Market Reaction:
The US Dollar Index rose about 0.7% to 102.18.
2-year US Treasury yield rose about 5 basis points.
10-year US Treasury yield rose about 4 basis points.
The probability of a Fed rate hike in December rose to about 78%.
Data source: Reuters, November 6.
Core implication of this data:
The US labor market is more resilient than the market expected, and the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates in the short term.
However, note that strong nonfarm payrolls do not mean the economy has no problems; real wage purchasing power and employment structure still deserve attention.
2. What happens to major markets after the nonfarm data?
There is a very notable phenomenon:
Nonfarm data is bearish for gold, but the Nasdaq rebounded.
This shows that today you cannot simply explain all assets with one macroeconomic data point.
The Nasdaq rebound includes a technical correction factor after the tech stocks plunged the previous trading day; concerns about AI sector valuations have not disappeared.
3. Why is nonfarm bearish but Nasdaq rises?
This is the most worthy area of study today.
US stock early trading around 11 PM Beijing time on November 6:
Nasdaq rose about 1.1%.
S&P 500 rose about 0.2%. $PIEVERSE opened long at 1.2919 with 20x leverage, mark price at 1.3755, floating profit 129.42%, position still open.
The market shows strong support, with quick rebounds on low volume pullbacks, continuous buying pressure, firm defense, and a solid bullish structure. It is recommended to take profit on 50%–60% to lock in gains first, and watch the remaining position at the 1.40 resistance zone; if volume breaks through, continue holding; stop loss set below 1.2919. Those not yet involved should not rush to chase highs, wait for pullback confirmation. @大勇干短线（互动）
The key is market judgment, not staring at the screen but holding steadily; as long as the trend exists, hold firmly. Everyone, don’t get emotional, participate rationally in the upcoming rotation $BTC $ETH $HYPE Observation: The schedule lists nearly ten million tokens, but only 180,000 were actually distributed today
Unlocking on the same day, the two numbers differ by more than fifty times
Calendars like Tokenomist mark the core contributor unlock on November 6 at about 9.92 million HYPE, equivalent to approximately $780 million at the current price
Hyperliquid Labs confirmed on Discord that only 180,000 tokens were actually given to the team today, about $14.12 million, accounting for only about 1.8% of the schedule and about 0.075% of the approximately 239 million circulating supply
OKEx spot current price is 78.458, down 2.6% in 24 hours, with a volume of about 59.16 million USDT, intraday low at 76.265
The undistributed portion has not been canceled but postponed to later months; whether the recipients sell immediately depends on on-chain transfers.The non-farm payroll data exploded directly, with 165,000 new jobs added in October, while the market expected only 65,000. The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1%, and the combined revisions for August and September added 84,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month. Both employment and wages exceeded expectations, completely overturning the narrative of a cooling labor market. Once the data was released, the market immediately repriced the December rate hike, and U.S. Treasury yields surged.
Strong employment and sticky wages suggest that inflation may fall more slowly than expected, leaving room for further upward revision in December rate hike pricing. Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar directly suppress interest-free risk assets like BTC. However, strong employment also alleviates recession concerns, so risk assets may not decline unilaterally; short-term is more likely to see high volatility and repeated repricing.
The data is bearish, but don't chase the downside. Watch whether BTC's rebound to the 77,000 to 78,000 resistance zone shows shrinking volume; if the rally lacks strength, you can lightly short with a stop loss above the previous high. If BTC pulls back and stabilizes at the 74,000 to 75,000 support, and ETF outflows narrow, short-term recovery can be observed, but avoid heavy bottom-fishing. The core message is this: the non-farm data reinforces rate pressure, not a trend reversal. Expect large volatility after the data; manage leverage well and set stop losses properly. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC $ETH $SNDK The sauce of this $APT pot has already boiled up to the edge — a 4.41% rise in 24 hours isn't crazy, but the 1-hour RSI hitting 70.3, the short-term Bollinger Band price position at 120%, with only 0.6% space left on the upper band and still 3.7% buffer on the lower band, means the heat is just right for a crispy surface but the bottom is about to burn. The sell signal isn’t just a guess; the 1-hour RSI > 64 is like a knife already at the pot’s edge; the long-term RSI at 54.1 is still neutral, like the main dish center isn’t fully cooked and can’t be served directly. The mid-term Bollinger Band position at 97%, with only 0.2% space on the upper band and 5.2% buffer on the lower band, indicates this wave is more like too much seasoning added, not a recipe change for the main dish.
My stove rules: mainstream coins are the main dish, altcoins are the seasoning, and leveraged contracts are the extra spicy chili. This $APT dish only has a small spoon of seasoning, you can’t treat extra spicy chili as the main oil. Current price around 0.63, short-term overbought, shorting should wait for a rebound to 0.64, entry 2.0% higher than current price, like waiting for the oil temperature to rise before adding ingredients; take profit 1 at 0.59, 6.1% below current price, take profit 2 at 0.60, 4.9% below; stop loss at 0.70 corresponds to 12.1% risk, too much chili will burn your stomach. This ratio isn’t a full banquet, just a small dish to test the flavor, once the heat is off, immediately take it off the stove.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.64 (current price +2.0%)
Take Profit 1: 0.59 (-6.1%)
Take Profit 2: 0.60 (-4.9%)
Stop Loss: 0.70 (-12.1%)
I won’t chase the high on this $APT pot, just wait for the pot to cool down, short position goes in, and once the heat is right, immediately take it off the stove.Look? The market hasn't let us off yet.
Yesterday I warned everyone to be cautious after the midterm elections, and today the market plunged again.
On November 5th, the U.S. stock market faced severe selling pressure:
- The Nasdaq index fell 5.5%, wiping out $2.5 trillion in market value.
- The S&P 500 index dropped 4.4%, marking its largest decline since April 2025.
- Semiconductor stocks fell 12%.
- $BTC dropped nearly 6%, retreating to the 75-76K range.
In the cryptocurrency sector, over $1 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, most of which were long positions.
This time, it’s not just cryptocurrencies that are weak. The U.S. stock market was also sold off, especially AI stocks after the election.
The end of the year is usually a sensitive period, and this year’s political situation is even more turbulent, requiring extra caution.
Those who focus on the long term and trade over longer cycles will benefit more. But those doing short-term trades now are likely to lose everything.
My long-term view remains unchanged; in the short term, I will wait for tonight’s nonfarm payroll report and then update everyone in the channel.$TEAM
Atlassian is growing well, so why might the market still compress its valuation?
Post-earnings after-hours reports this week have listed Atlassian as a notably volatile stock. Software company valuations depend on a combination of growth and costs. Even if revenue exceeds short-term forecasts, it may not meet the market's higher expectations for guidance, cloud migration, and AI investment returns.
If retention and cash flow per share continue to improve, a pullback is worth reconsidering; if growth slows while sales or computing costs rise, profit recovery could be delayed.The market is so intense! SNDKUSDT perpetual current price 874.6, up 5.01% in 24h, but the spike down from the high of 914.2 is nerve-wracking 💔 📊【Key Signals】 1️⃣ News split: AI sell-off (chip crash + regulation) VS SanDisk FY2027 Q1 earnings beat expectations (EPS $49.51), bulls and bears are fiercely rotating! 2️⃣ 15-minute chart warning: EMA5/10/20 (886/888/887) all pressing overhead, MACD death cross (DIFF 3.9 < DEA 6.6, green bar -5.3), short-term pullback trend obvious. 3️⃣ Volume and price: 24h turnover 3.361 billion USDT, turnover rate 5.11%, P/E ratio only 6.86, fundamentals support but technicals need correction. 🎯【Direction Judgment】 Short term looking at 875-880 range battle! If it can't hold the EMA dense zone, high probability to retest 860 or even 793.7 (24h low). But the earnings base is solid, a deep drop is an opportunity for bulls to accumulate. A market with explosive moves on both sides, which side are you on?👇 SNDK #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 SanDisk #cryptocurrency #contracttrading #marketanalysis $SNDK $BTC $ZEC deBridge Analytics aggregates every on-chain traffic settled through deBridge into a unified, real-time, fully open dashboard. No fees, no permissions required, open to everyone, with real-time data updates, intuitive charts, and support for freely switching time dimensions and chain dimensions.
- Fund flows between chains over any time period (today, last 7 days, 30 days, 3 months, all time)
- Total number of transactions, total transaction amount, DAO revenue
- Daily transaction volume and cumulative transaction volume trends
- Daily active users and new users
- Transaction share and amount proportion of each chain
- Supports bidirectional filtering from/to specific chains BTC, ETH, and SOL all fell together, with ETH experiencing the heaviest deleveraging
12:35
Within the same 24-hour UTC period, BTC dropped 4.8%, ETH fell 6.8% with liquidations of $169.1 million; $SOL dropped 5.1% with liquidations of $36.73 million. ETH's decline and liquidation scale are more prominent. A larger drop does not mean an immediate rebound; first, we need to see if open interest can stop falling and whether spot can absorb the sell-off.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 The most dangerous thing on the chessboard is not being in check, but thinking you are on the attack. $AAVE's move has surged 4.68% in 24H. On the surface, it looks like the enemy is at the gates, but in reality, it's a classic sacrifice to lure the opponent—short-term RSI has already touched 70.4, lighting up the overbought red zone, while the long-term RSI is only 55.9. The midgame isn't even over yet, so where is the endgame harvest?
Looking at the Bollinger Bands chessboard: the short-term price position is at 132%, with only -1.1% room left to the upper band, but a deep abyss of +4.9% to the lower band. This is a typical "overextended pawn," moving too fast and unstable at the heel; one counter-move from the opponent will force a retreat. The mid-term position is 66%, with +5.8% to the lower band and +2.8% to the upper band, indicating there is still breathing room in the big picture, but a short-term tactical mistake has already been planted.
My judgment: this is setting the stage for a pullback. Entry is set at $97.99, 2.9% above the current price—not chasing the rally, but waiting for the opponent to move the piece into the square I have preset before making my move. A true grandmaster never chases the board but lets the board move into their calculation.
📉 Short:
Entry: 97.99 (current price +2.9%)
Take Profit 1: 87.10 (-8.5%)
Take Profit 2: 90.03 (-5.5%)
Stop Loss: 109.29 (+14.8%)
The stop loss is placed at +14.8%, not out of cowardice, but to leave room for midgame maneuvering and sacrifice. Target 1 is set at -8.5%, corresponding to the gravitational zone at the mid-term lower Bollinger Band; Target 2 at -5.5% is the necessary path for the short-term mean reversion. The two take profit points act like a double rook fork, first capturing pawns then forcing the king.
Don't be fooled by the 4.68% 24H rise; the short-term overbought combined with the Bollinger Band upper band overflow is a feint before the "check." The real killing move comes after the pullback confirmation. The long-term RSI at 55.9 still firmly holds the central army camp, indicating the big picture is intact, but in this short-term move, the opponent has already shown a flaw.Long liquidations accounted for 88% of the day, but the short-term scenario is no longer the same.
The total 24-hour liquidation volume across the four exchanges is about $892 million, with longs at $785 million and shorts at $107 million; however, in the last 4 hours, short liquidations have exceeded long liquidations. Note that the total includes stocks and fund perpetual contracts, not purely the crypto market. For $BTC and $ETH, the full-day deleveraging and short-term rebound must be judged separately.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 $ZEC needs an inflow of 4 billion USD to reach the high point, is that possible? It's not just 200 million.A rather ironic scene tonight: On the same day that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index in the US stock market dropped ten points in a single day and the S&P lost three trillion, the Fed's Musalem was publicly endorsing AI, saying that data center construction is driving strong demand, AI will significantly boost productivity, and casually attributing this round of excess inflation to AI infrastructure as well.
My experience is that when policymakers need to personally step in to endorse an asset, it's often not the bottom; it means sentiment is already starting to unravel. The market votes with its feet, officials stabilize with words, and when both sides are at odds, I trust the price more.
This time, my short bet has never been on whether a particular chip manufacturer is profitable or not, but on the financing pipeline fueling the entire AI arms race. As long as the pipeline isn't loosened, I won't be at ease. Do you think the officials' current statements reflect genuine confidence or are they just firefighting?First, remove the safety net: $DOGE surged 5.43% in 24 hours. This is not a thickening of the load-bearing wall, but the curtain wall bulging in the wind. The short-term RSI has shot up to 67.9, just one floor below the overbought red line; the long-term RSI is only 50.3, with the main structure still on the central axis, indicating this wave is a local cantilever, not an overall foundation lift.
Looking at the Bollinger Bands, it resembles a cross-section: the short-term price is at 72%, only 1.0% from the upper band and 2.6% from the lower band; the mid-term is already at 92%, just 0.7% from the upper band but 8.4% from the lower band. The price is hugging the upper band, like the top floor displacement exceeding limits—visually appealing facade but the stress at the joints is off. The 5.43% rise in 24 hours only proves the scaffolding was erected quickly, not that the concrete grade is sufficient. The white paper is the design blueprint, the community is the construction fence, but the real load-bearing depends on development, liquidity, and long-term scalability; for $DOGE, there is plenty of activity but insufficient structural redundancy.
My construction judgment is straightforward: do not chase this bulging curtain wall; wait for a retracement to the old cracks before hammering down. Entry is at the current price +3.4%, a pullback confirmation level, not chasing a high. Short RSI 67.9 is the beam end torque, long RSI 50.3 is the column axial force; the former has reached its limit first, the latter has not yielded yet; mid-term Bollinger Band at 92%, 0.7% from the upper band means the cantilever end only has one temporary support left, 8.4% from the lower band is like an unfilled foundation pit, the retracement space is already written in the structural joints.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.08 (current price +3.4%)
Take Profit 1: 0.07 (+4.9%)
Take Profit 2: 0.07 (+7.7%)
Stop Loss: 0.08 (-14.3%)
Take Profit 1 targets a 4.9% pullback first, Take Profit 2 looks at a 7.7% extended displacement; both targets are at 0.07, indicating the downside is not a single slab but a settlement joint that must be accepted in segments. Stop loss is set at the upper edge of 0.08, corresponding to a 14.3% risk exposure; if the retracement turns into a structural breakout, exit immediately and do not negotiate facade effects. The 5.43% in 24H is just wind load, not the foundation bearing layer; short RSI 67.9, mid-term Bollinger Band 92%, 0.7% from the upper band—these three numbers together are overload signals.
This building will not be accepted.When $BTC hovers near low-level support, it’s easy to develop the illusion that a halt in decline and sideways movement means the downtrend has ended.
This is my personal market observation. The current quote is about $75,583, with a rolling 24-hour range of $75,200–$78,103. The price has fallen back near the lower support and temporarily slowed its decline, showing low-level consolidation. However, a brief pause in the downtrend does not mean the bearish momentum is exhausted, nor can it be directly concluded that the bottom has formed; I will not rely on minor support holding to ignore the downside risk caused by repeated probes and support failures.
Until there is a clear signal of stabilization and counterattack at the support level, I will not rashly switch to a bullish stance. Repeatedly bottom-fishing and trying longs within the support range may show small floating losses per trade, but frequent attempts accumulate and can consume the preset risk budget. Rather than rushing to guess the bottom and catch a rebound, it’s better to stick to the pre-set trial-and-error limit and stop opening positions once the line is reached.
My judgment is that only if the price firmly holds above the moving average resistance near $77,300, with stable and strong support during pullbacks, is it worth reevaluating the possibility of a continued rebound; if multiple attempts to break resistance fail and the key support at $75,200 is directly broken, then the current consolidation pattern must be redefined. Without confirmed signals, do not keep adding positions, and don’t passively convert short-term support plays into long-term longs.
This is for opinion exchange only.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Just two days after the election
Tesla ($TSLA) and SpaceX ($SPCX)
have together evaporated over $450 billion in market value
As a result, at 22:30 tonight when the market opened, funds betting on an oversold rebound rushed in directly
Even though SpaceX, which was hammered down to $123.62 last night, rebounded
SpaceX is still struggling below $135
Tesla's rolling P/E ratio is still stuck at a high level of 378 times
Far above the 5-year median of 107 times
Friends entering the market tonight to catch the Musk rebound
Are you planning to do a day trade and run
Or betting that the political downside has already been fully priced in?