Orbit Post Sitemap
Coinbase's net profit for Q3 2026 was $719 million, with adjusted net profit at $78 million. The gap between these two measures is significant; when analyzing profitability, it's essential to first understand what each includes and excludes.
However, in this report, I am more focused on the revenue structure.
Subscription and service revenue already accounts for 49% of net income. The average USDC held within Coinbase products reached $22 billion, a 49% year-over-year increase.
This indicates that analyzing this company by only looking at coin prices and trading volume is no longer sufficient. Users leaving funds on the platform, using stablecoins, and other services also impact its revenue.
Of course, the term "subscription and services" easily brings to mind stable software subscription businesses, but it still needs further breakdown. Stablecoin-related revenue is affected by balances, interest rates, and commercial allocation mechanisms, so the entire category cannot be treated as fixed income.
My judgment is: Coinbase's business is indeed becoming more diversified, but its resilience to economic cycles still needs to be tested in an environment of cooling trading and changing interest rates.
Next quarter, more worth tracking than the net profit headline are the composition of service revenue, USDC balances, and whether expense growth has eaten into the benefits brought by business expansion. #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 Safe haven failure? All the money is flooding into U.S. Treasuries
U.S. stocks fell, and gold and silver also plunged together, with the traditional safe haven portfolio collectively failing. It's understandable that weak tech earnings dragged down U.S. stocks, but the simultaneous drop in gold and silver mainly stems from the Fed's hawkish stance and the 10-year Treasury yield stuck above 5%. With risk-free interest rates so high, capital naturally prefers to lie in U.S. Treasuries rather than hold non-yielding gold; when gold is suppressed, silver also struggles to stand alone.
This is awkward for $BTC: it wants to tell the "digital gold" safe haven story, but the market still prices it like a "high beta tech stock." When U.S. stocks fall, it falls with them; when gold falls, it can't escape either. Coupled with the previous hacker incident that took away billions, confidence hasn't fully recovered, so short-term pressure is not surprising.
But the long-term logic is worth noting: when high interest rates can strip even gold's safe haven halo, capital will sooner or later re-examine the ever-expanding hole in U.S. Treasuries. This distorted macro environment might instead become fertile ground for $BTC's "non-sovereign asset" narrative. It's just that the short-term market is still in panic, and $ETH and $SOL are equally unable to escape the squeeze from risk appetite contraction. #U.S.stocks and gold and silver plunge together, safe haven capital flows diverge $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 Don't mistake mediation for a turning point 🌍, Brent surged to 117, hitting a six-month high, the easing narrative doesn't hold. High oil prices are the inflation powder keg, the Fed's rate cut window is blocked, and high interest rates will continue to wear down.
$BZ Crude Oil: The US-Iran deadlock remains unresolved, one side demands nuclear concessions, the other wants sanctions lifted, the risk in the Strait of Hormuz is hard to eliminate. Without squeezing out geopolitical premiums, oil prices won't fall deeply; inventories and freight support the bottom, wide-range oscillation at high levels is the main theme, don't short just because of headlines 🛢️.
$BTC Bitcoin: Macro headwinds press down, inflation won't drop without oil prices falling, high rates continue. Lack of new inflows off-exchange, ETFs are short-term biased, key levels rely on sentiment to hold, heavy trapped positions above, rebounds easily face selling pressure 📉.
$XAUT Gold: Both safe-haven and inflation-hedge logics are active, geopolitical tensions remain tight, central bank buying supports the floor. Avoid getting stuck in short-term volatility for long-term positions, resilience still stronger than crypto ✨.
Conclusion: Statements are easily changed, the market is the most honest 📊👀.btc
In terms of news, the market logic of BTC has been changing recently. The panic caused by the Binance security incident has somewhat eased, and Bitcoin found support around $76,000, currently returning to near $78,000. However, the market has not regained strength because of this; investors' attention is shifting to the US midterm elections and the non-farm payroll data to be released this Friday. It is worth noting that the US stock market has recently experienced a significant correction, and global risk asset volatility remains high. If employment data exceeds expectations, it may reinforce expectations of sustained high interest rates, putting pressure on BTC; if the data is weak, it may revive market expectations for easing policies. Short-term macro data will be a key variable in determining whether BTC can further rebound.
In terms of capital, the most noteworthy aspect currently is the divergence between ETF capital outflows and price stabilization. On October 30, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net outflow of about $643.3 million, causing the overall capital flow in October to turn from positive to negative, with a cumulative net outflow of about $515 million. BlackRock IBIT, Fidelity FBTC, and ARKB all experienced significant capital withdrawals. On the other hand, BTC did not continue to fall sharply due to institutional capital retreat; instead, it found support around $76,000. This indicates that there is still some spot buying in the market absorbing selling pressure. However, whether this support can continue remains to be seen, depending on the capital performance after the US ETF market reopens.Good news and selling pressure are all written on the order book: TRX hacker holds 475 million coins, UNI fee narrative clashes with sell wall, LIT license not yet submitted but already up 19%
$TRX is very active on-chain, but the order book remains still
After Binance was hacked, the hacker used TRX as a money laundering channel, washing about $242 million through Tron in two days. The hacker handled 242 million, which is ten times the holdings, yet the price remains unchanged. The hacker still holds about 475 million TRX and is slowly selling off
$UNI fee narrative is real, and the hacker's sell wall is also real
Up 18% in a week, with two logics: DEX grabbing CEX market share, protocol fee burn, funds shifting from "safe haven" to "income-generating" assets. But a hacker is liquidating stolen UNI through swaps, having sold about $22.8 million, with 3.16 million coins still hanging overhead. The fee narrative is pushing up, while the hacker's sell wall is suppressing
$LIT license expectations are fully priced in, lock-up selling pressure written into the contract
Top gainer, FDV reached $3.4 billion. The story is solid: license application submitted to CFTC in November, once approved it will be a compliant on-chain perpetual in the US. But on the other hand, equally solid: 50% of the team and investors' tokens are locked until December, then linearly released over three years, so selling pressure is not speculation but contract terms. Above $3, the chase is for license expectations; after December, the focus will be on token structure
Summary: TRX looks at $0.30 and hacker's remaining supply, UNI looks at whether $7 can absorb the sell wall, LIT looks at expectation over $3 being overextended
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Midterm elections in the US are approaching, which outcomes should we watch? Election countdown! BTC retreats to 77K, how to bet on this "political game"?
As the election nears, the market dips first out of respect. Watching BTC struggle to hold above 77,000, with the daily MACD diverging downward, the worst now is to recklessly charge ahead. Facing macro events, we don't guess the script, just focus on these three core battles:
1️⃣ Congressional puzzle: deadlock is the status quo
The House of Representatives is very likely to change hands, while the Senate is still in contention. Once a "split Congress" forms, it means fiscal expansion will be tightly restrained. For risk assets, the volatility from expectation gaps far outweighs one-sided rallies.
2️⃣ Regulatory blind box: who will be the sacrifice?
The "Clarity Act" is currently stalled. If the Republicans hold their ground, BTC and ETH might rebound on compliance expectations; but if the Democrats sweep, regulatory crackdowns will surely come down hard, altcoins will definitely be the first to fall, while BTC will show its resilience. Remember, the market is all about expectations now.
3️⃣ Coin positioning: face reality
Don't confuse BTC and ETH. $BTC plays the long-term logic of "distrust in fiat + liquidity," election noise won't shake its true bottom; while $ETH is highly tied to ETF funds and regulatory trends, extremely sensitive to the final composition of Congress. Betting on Ethereum's direction now is like grabbing fire.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $AMD #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展
The current market consensus anchors AMD's revenue for this quarter at about $13.08 billion, while the company’s guidance range is $12.7–13.3 billion, with a target gross margin maintained at 56%. In my view, there is clear potential for an upside surprise this time.
Last quarter, the data center business delivered $6.7 billion in revenue, soaring 107% year-over-year, becoming the main growth driver. With continued volume growth of EPYC server CPUs and Instinct accelerators, combined with new capacity coming online, this upward momentum has not stopped. Demand for inference and intelligent agents continues to expand, and many major customers’ order backlogs exceed conservative market assumptions, easily pushing both revenue and profit to surpass consensus expectations.
Of course, it’s important to recognize that the market has already priced in many optimistic narratives. Even if the data is strong, if it only slightly meets expectations, a pullback in expectations may occur; only if the server segment continues to achieve higher growth rates can it truly deliver a surprise. In short, this is not a guaranteed win, but based on the current business momentum, the probability of an earnings beat is clearly higher than that of a miss.The hacker's selling pressure has already crushed several altcoins, seemingly without regard for execution prices. PROM is a striking example: $5 million worth of tokens reportedly recovered just 0.03 ETH. With Binance stepping in to cover the shortfall, immediate selling pressure across altcoins may ease, potentially stabilizing the market temporarily. However, the next concern is asset conversion. Reports suggest the attacker is swapping SOL into BTC, with ETH potentially next. If this flow co🚨 ARE YOU NEW TO CRYPTOCURRENCIES? I CAN HELP YOU! 🤝
If you want to start trading, follow these 5 tips:
1️⃣ Learn about BTC and ETH.
2️⃣ Master the charts.
3️⃣ Start with Spot, no leverage.
4️⃣ Protect your capital.
5️⃣ Be patient: learning is more important than making quick profits.
💡 Your first goal is not to get rich, it’s to learn not to lose!
👇 Are you a beginner or already trading? 🚀Will MSTR be kicked out of MSCI? It's not decided yet.
CoinDesk cites Bitfire: The final list of MSCI's new rules for "non-operating companies" is pending, with Strategy and Metaplanet named as potential candidates.
Why it matters: Once removed, passive funds will have to sell stocks, not BTC—but this will weaken their ability to continue raising funds to accumulate coins. Meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $643 million last Friday, wiping out over 60% of this year's net inflows.
Candidates ≠ final decision; it's all probabilistic until the list is released.
Source: Media summary (CoinDesk/Bitfire), confidence medium.
Do you think the "company coin accumulation" model will be constrained by index rules? Discuss in the comments. $BTC Morgan Stanley today cut Coinbase's target price from $258 to $120, more than halving it, and downgraded the rating directly to underweight.
On the same day, another investment bank, BTIG, maintained a buy rating with a target price of $240, exactly double the former.
The divergence is not in today's stock price: last Friday Coinbase closed at $143.54, and Morgan Stanley's new target is 16% below the current price.
The divergence lies in 2027: Morgan Stanley cut its revenue forecast for that year by 28%, and adjusted EBITDA expectations down by 47%.
Their reason is straightforward: weakening trading volume, softer revenue outlook, and lingering uncertainty after Binance's $6.3 billion theft.
BTIG's logic is exactly the opposite: the stock has overcorrected, and there is still 67% upside potential on the table.
My view: this is not about being bearish or bullish on Coinbase, but Wall Street is starting to debate whether exchanges can still make money from trading volume; I am observing, not chasing.
Invalidation point: if Coinbase's trading volume continuously rebounds or the 2027 guidance is revised upward, this "deterioration of recovery" judgment becomes void.
Do you trust the cautious $120 or the optimistic $240?
$COIN $BTC
#Coinbase target price slashed to $120$ETH dip-buying strategy 📉➡️📈
Strategy:
• Do not chase the highs; wait for ETH to dip to 2265-2270 (EMA dense support zone) and stabilize before gradually entering long positions.
• Initial target is 2280-2300; if volume supports a steady break above 2300, extend the target to 2350.
• Set stop-loss below 2240; exit if it breaks the 24-hour low.
Core basis:
1️⃣ Excessive short crowding: nominal long-short ratio only 29.45%, shorts at 1.43 billion USDT, about 3.4 times the longs; short average price 2238, current price near 2271 is generally at a floating loss, a rally could easily trigger short covering 🔥.
2️⃣ Bottom structure improvement: 1-hour level long lower shadow spike at 2171 raised the low point, price stabilized above EMA5/10/20, early signs of short-term bulls emerging ✅.
3️⃣ Negative funding rate support: funding rate -0.0007%, shorts continuously paying fees, increasing holding costs, making dip-buying risk-reward more favorable.
Approach: wait for dip, watch for stabilization, test with light positions, do not hold through breakouts ⚠️. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 Drink today while there's wine, tomorrow the crypto world will come again.
Born with money, coins are useful; spend a thousand coins and they will come back.
Look at the midterm elections voting on November 3rd, the Democrats have a 90% chance to take the House. I think this is a sedative for the crypto world, not a cure—changing Congress doesn't mean the CLARITY Act will come, it might instead bring Warren to chair the banking committee.
$BTC 77,400, like posting "I'm fine" on social media after a breakup; ETF outflows of 614 million in one day, giving back four days of inflows in one day.
$ETH 2,291, five consecutive days of ETF bleeding 336 million, like being laid off but still treating others, face intact, wallet empty.
$ZEC 1200-1260, NU7 upgrade landing November 5-6, up 10,500% in two years, retail long-short ratio 0.48 queued to short, top traders' long-short ratio 1.023 secretly adding longs. Knives and forks ready, waiting for the dish.
I think before the election results land, shorting priority is ETH > BTC, avoid ZEC. Hold your hands, see who’s swimming naked after November 5.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
@你的爱播Misa @bilibili交易姬 @北伐軍一一軍需部长——B哥 @皮神⚡Misa后援团 It now feels more like a phase of event repricing rather than a chasing-the-rally phase. Are you also watching where that big money finally lands? When I reviewed the transaction structure this morning, my first reaction wasn’t excitement but a bit of a smile: a volume of 874M is laid out there, but the money’s preference is written all over the place. BTC absorbed 357.6M, ETH got 264.2M, together totaling 622M; the remaining eight top assets didn’t even touch 60M individually. This isn’t a broad rally market; it’s capital making choices. In my own position journal, today’s entry will probably say: don’t rush, first see who is being repriced. ETH rose slightly by 0.9%, BTC dipped slightly by 0.2%, seemingly calm on the surface, but seats are being rearranged underneath. The smaller tokens are more honest: NEAR dropped 6.8%, TRUMP dropped 5.7%, PEPE dropped 1.6%. These numbers matter, not because of how much they fell, but because they show that risk appetite hasn’t spread; money only wants to stay where it feels certainty is higher. What I understand the market is trading is not "the bull market has arrived," but "hold tight to the two core cards first." BTC and ETH getting the bulk means marginal buyers value depth and narrative certainty more; altcoins not keeping up means people aren’t ready to push positions beyond the curve. The biggest mistake in this phase is to see a large total volume and assume rotation is coming, then prematurely buy small tokens. I almost did that last week, but luckily I checked the transaction distribution first and held back. A bullish path also exists: if ETH$BTC
The strategy is to increase Bitcoin holdings while simultaneously repurchasing preferred shares in large amounts.
The company bought 811 BTC last week, spending $65.5M; additionally, it spent $208.2M to repurchase STRC, reducing cash reserves to $132.7M, with another $4.79B reserved to cover preferred share dividends.
I think the news is somewhat positive, but BTC is below EMA20 on both 1H and 4H charts, and EMA20 is also below EMA50. RSI is 36.6/40.4, indicating weakness remains; I am watching the 77,400.0 support level.
OKX data: BTC 77,555.40 USDT, 24h -0.74%, volume 397.9M USDT.
Do you think this increase in holdings can improve market sentiment?
#BTCMarketSignalsDiverge Not investment advice. DYOR. A few days ago, I impulsively bought Intel. Before the market opened, it dropped more than 26%, hitting a low near $67. I got in around $69, thinking such a steep drop was an overreaction and a bargain. But as soon as I entered, I got hit hard, held on for a short while, admitted my mistake, and cut my losses to run. For this kind of stock, the drop is brutal and the price looks like a bottom, but once you buy in, you realize there’s still a basement below. This isn’t a bottom; it’s a trap to catch me. This is the current state of the US stock market. So I’m outright bearish. First, let’s talk about the Federal Reserve. On October 28, they maintained the interest rate at 3.75% to 4.00% with a 10 to 2 vote. The key isn’t the status quo, but the two dissenting votes: Cook and Harker demanded a 25 basis point hike. The statement also upgraded the economic assessment from solid to strong, while emphasizing that inflation remains high. Wash’s stance is equally tough: no forward guidance, no dot plot, no forecast, and starting 2027, fewer meetings. Logan called for at least two more hikes of 25 basis points each; Musalem urged quick action. Before the meeting, the market had already priced in about a 78% chance of a rate hike in December. Why so hawkish? Q3 GDP annualized at 3.4%, up from 2.2% in Q2; September PCE at 3.6%, core PCE at 3.1%, still far from the 2% target. The economy isn’t in recession, inflation is sticky, so the Fed has no reason to rescue the market. The AI sector is also starting to show signs of bottoming. Google's October 29 earnings report showed revenue and profit both missed expectations for the first time in nearly four years: revMarket Quick Take: BTC watches Asian funds, ETH eyes 2200 🎯
$BTC 78,145, tentative buying in the Asian session, but selling pressure above remains heavy. If 78000 is lost again, next support is at 76000. Don't chase highs before volume expands 🧐
$ETH 2,240, exchange rate continues to weaken, staking outflows slow but lack catalysts. 2200 is a psychological level; if broken, look to 2150. Both bulls and bears are waiting for direction 😮💨
$SOL 94.84, ecosystem TVL is rising, but price lags, consolidating below 100. Only a break above 96 turns it strong; otherwise, it will continue to consume time ⏳
$RE 0.37, liquidity is drying up, insurance narrative needs event-driven catalysts. Market is too thin, mainly watch and wait 🫥
$OKB 111, platform coin follows an independent rhythm, ICE partnership is a long-term positive. Short-term support at 108, not following BTC step by step 📊
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 Over $1 billion in ETH and $1.42 billion in BTC stolen from Bn have limited transfers, with the rest of the funds moving quickly
On November 2, Chainalysis stated that over $1 billion in ETH and about $1.42 billion in $BTC stolen from Binance have seen limited transfer activity since the incident, while the remaining funds have been rapidly moved through DeFi, cross-chain bridges, and other channels. Chainalysis found that some funds repeatedly flowed back to previously used addresses through thousands of transactions, showing a cyclical pattern different from previous North Korean hacker money laundering activities, possibly involving automated operations, but there is no evidence yet that the attackers used AI. The agency believes the current fund flows generally align with the early-stage layered money laundering characteristics following North Korean hacker attacks. $ETH $SOL I've always been puzzled: the price barely moves, yet the comment section is shouting bull and bear every day?
Because everyone is focused on the price, but the money is actually moving somewhere else. Currently, Bitcoin futures are 5.8% more expensive than spot; buying coins three months from now costs more than buying them directly now. This isn't a fee, it's that someone is willing to pay extra to lock in their position early.
And this price difference has been improving continuously for 90 days. Note that it's improving, not surging; it moves a little each day, so you can't really see it by just looking at the market.
This kind of slow change is the easiest to overlook and the easiest to say "should have been seen earlier" in hindsight. $BTC is like this now—calm on the surface, but contracts are slowly getting more expensive. As for whether this is a good thing, I can't say for sure.#AMD Earnings Report Expectations: Progress in Marketing the HeliosAI System THIS COULD BE A BIG SIGNAL FOR ALTCOINS. 🚀
$ZEC 🇺🇸 US ISM PMI has climbed to 55.5%, marking its highest reading in three months.
This signals stronger economic activity in the US, and it could be an important catalyst for the crypto market.
Historically, every major AltSeason has taken place during periods of ISM expansion. We are now 10 months into the current expansion phase.
If history is any guide, AltSeason 3.0 could be closer than many expect. 👀#AMDQ3HeliosRevenue #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 Q3 revenue is expected to be about $890 million, still down year-over-year, with losses possibly widening to over $1 per share. The main revenue still relies on the COVID-19 vaccine; management did not include flu and RSV new vaccines in the guidance, so the "sales trend" basically means seeing how much inventory remains after the COVID-19 wave subsides.
I’m focusing on two things: first, cash—costs cut to about 4.2 billion, year-end cash target of 4.5 to 5 billion, holding that means short-term survival; second, cancer vaccines—the melanoma data from the Merck collaboration just came out, showing a 42% reduction in risk of recurrence or death, the story continues, but previous expectations were too high, and on the day of the data leak the stock price fell 25%. Data alone isn’t enough; commercialization still matters.
My view: the earnings report shows if it’s dead or alive now; the pipeline shows if it will survive in the future. Don’t focus on EPS during the call; focus on cash and the cancer vaccine development timeline. $MRNA Scrolling to the biggest losers list, BIO is glaringly hanging there: current price 0.02095, 24h open was still 0.02346, down -10.70% for the day, with volatility directly pulled up to 16.07%. Taking another glance at BTC on the same screen, -0.91%, volatility 2.04%—basically flat and unmoved.
Seeing these two side by side really tells the story. BTC’s range, frankly, means no clear direction, a move that offends no one. But BIO dropping from a high of 0.02463 down to 0.02086, swinging that widely, can’t be explained by just "market-driven" factors. If you want to blame the market, there has to be a premise that the market is moving first, right?
So when I see this kind of one high, one low structure, my first reaction is: isolate this coin and look at it alone. Someone is trading back and forth inside, chips are changing hands, sentiment is amplified, and the price is sticking near the day’s low—not just a casual shake.
Conversely, if one day BTC really makes a big move and BIO swings along with it, that’s what you call correlation. But right now, one is lying still, the other is tossing and turning, clearly separated.
When you encounter a "single coin swinging wildly while the market is still" combo, do you treat it as an opportunity or just noise? #波动雷达：币种异动观察 $BIO $BTC There is an indicator that many people overlook, but it is more honest than K-lines: the futures premium rate over spot. It is currently 5.8%.
This means buying Bitcoin three months from now costs 5.8% more than buying it directly today. This price difference is not given away for free; it measures how much the bulls in the contract market are willing to pay to "lock in" early. When the premium rises, it indicates leveraged funds are scrambling for chips; when the premium collapses, it means everyone is withdrawing.
What’s even more worth watching is the second sentence: this indicator has been improving continuously for 90 days. Looking at the 5.8% figure alone doesn’t say much; 5.8% is neither an extreme high nor low historically. But when the direction moves consistently in one way for three months, its nature changes—it represents a shift in the capital structure, not just a daily fluctuation.
So the signal from the derivatives market now is "strong," but this strength has a premise: it is based on the premium being maintainable. Once $BTC spot cannot keep up, the premium will narrow passively, and the forced liquidation pressure on leveraged positions will be sharper than the spot price drop. The term structures of $ETH and $SOL can be used for comparison; the same capital sentiment reacts at different speeds across different assets.
Here’s a question for you to ponder: the 90-day continuous improvement—is capital positioning ahead of time, or is it just arbitrageurs gradually narrowing the price gap? These two explanations point to completely opposite next steps.Those who like to "search for the bottom" are often the ones who "miss the opportunity."
$BTC is currently priced around 785,000, having broken below the 80-82K support zone last week.
Now, 73-75K is the next important support zone because a considerable number of price levels are concentrated around this point:
- Selling cost (strategy): about $754,000
- Short-term holders' cost price: about $759,000
- 200-day moving average: about $73,100
Overall, this support zone looks quite solid, but a slight pullback for a deeper correction would be better for the upcoming big wave.
This period is usually very sensitive. If you can't keep up with the market pace, you should stick to your long-term investment plan and avoid trying to catch the bottom, or else you will miss good opportunities. ZEC
🛡️ ZEC stands at $1,269! NU7 countdown 3 days
📊 On November 2, Investing.com shows ZEC at about $1,269.49 (07:24), market cap about $21.55 billion, ranked 10th, 24-hour trading volume about $620 million; previous reading (November 1) about $1,248.24.
🧮 About -24.7% from the 52-week high of $1,686.17 (calculated by me).
🔍 Coinedition: ZEC is consolidating within a triangle, upper edge about $1,383, lower edge about $1,190 to $1,205, converging around November 10.
📅 NU7 mainnet activation height 3,543,405, target November 5 (3 days from now, calculated by me).
ZEC is very volatile, I can't judge the direction, might be wrong.
📍 Positions I'm watching:
• $1,383: upper edge of the triangle
• $1,317.80: resistance this month
• $1,205: 50-day moving average
Do you think ZEC will break out of the triangle before NU7 activation?
$ZEC #Zcash #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook #AppleQ4iPhone18Outlook #PalantirQ3Valuation $BTC $ETH $ZEC eth
On the news front, Ethereum has recently experienced some noteworthy changes. The panic triggered by the Binance security incident has gradually subsided, and ETH has started to follow BTC in a corrective rebound. However, the market's focus has shifted from exchange security issues to when institutional funds will re-enter and the potential policy changes brought by the US midterm elections. Additionally, Ethereum's own long-term staking demand remains strong, with about 43.8 million ETH currently staked, accounting for approximately 35.9% of the circulating supply. This indicates that long-term holders have not significantly abandoned Ethereum, but short-term price still requires capital support.
On the funding side, institutional funds remain the biggest risk for ETH. The US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of about $155.7 million on October 30 alone, marking five consecutive trading days of net outflows, totaling about $431.4 million, and a cumulative net outflow of about $1.61 billion in October, the worst single-month performance since the ETF's launch. On the other hand, the derivatives market showed a positive signal: as of November 2, the 24-hour open interest of ETH on-chain perpetual contracts decreased by about 0.1%, while the price rose about 1.3%, indicating that part of this rally came from short covering rather than purely new leveraged funds. Short-term liquidation pressure has eased somewhat, but real incremental buying still needs to be observed $CORE Major breaking development! 70.2% of stolen assets recovered, but this hard fork has also sparked greater controversy!
Another security incident in the crypto market has a follow-up worth noting.
This time, it's not just about recovering funds; more importantly, it raises the question: to what extent can a public blockchain alter its ledger to recover stolen assets?
According to the latest update from b14g, the Core network has recovered approximately 68.15 million $CORE from three attacker-controlled addresses through a hard fork.
What does this mean?
In the October 31 security incident, about 97.05 million CORE were affected, and the current recovery rate has reached approximately 70.2%.
This recovery rate is indeed noteworthy.
But what truly deserves reflection is the underlying technology and governance mechanisms.
1️⃣ What does recovering assets through a hard fork actually mean?
This time, the Core network adjusted the ledger state via a hard fork to recover some assets controlled by the attackers.
From the outcome, this is an important asset recovery progress.
However, from the perspective of blockchain governance, it also raises another issue:
When a network can modify the ledger state through governance and consensus mechanisms, how should security and decentralization be balanced?
The ability to recover assets is a security capability; the ability to decide to modify the ledger involves governance power.
These two are not the same concept.
2️⃣ Nearly 28.9 million CORE remain unresolved
Currently $SNDK Recent Trend and Core Reasons for the Decline 1. Huge gains in the previous period, with a very thick profit-taking chip base Over the past year, it was a super main upward wave, with the stock price soaring from a low level; after peaking in October, it entered a sharp correction, with a large maximum monthly drawdown, representing a "good news realization" market. 2. The negative factor is not SanDisk itself, but the upstream partner Kioxia's guidance cooling down Kioxia lowered its profit forecast and clearly indicated: the NAND price increase slope is slowing down. The core of storage sector trading is not "price increase" but the acceleration of price increase. Previously, NAND rose 70% in a single quarter; in the most recent quarter, it only rose 25%. With the growth rate slowing, valuations of cyclical stocks must be cut, even if current prices are still rising and profits are hitting new highs. The market worries whether the high prosperity of AI storage demand can be sustained and whether cloud providers will reduce long-term locked orders. 3. Sector linkage: Micron and Kioxia were dragged down together, and storage cycle sentiment collectively weakened. Bullish logic (support) 1. AI inference's demand for large-capacity flash memory is incremental and different from the old cycles driven by phones and PCs; the HBF high-bandwidth flash memory standard is advancing, specifically targeting AI inference, opening up long-term space; 2. Supply-side constraints: manufacturers have no large-scale expansion plans, capital expenditure is restrained, making rapid oversupply unlikely; 3. Long-term contracts: leading cloud providers sign long-term supply agreements, locking in some demand in advance; 4. The company has very strong cash flow, continues large-scale buybacks, and stock splits benefit retail liquidity. There may be a rebound wave around the midterm elections, followed by a possible deep correction #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 Historically, PLTR's actual EPS quarter-over-quarter growth rates for the past five quarters were +46%, +26%, +42%, and +21%. The threshold to be met this quarter is not high itself. About 90%: reported value ≥ $0.43. The past momentum of exceeding expectations combined with the incremental revenue needed to cross the line is only about 3–4% above guidance.$PLTR Earnings Preview: Revenue Is Just the Ticket In, the Real Price Driver Is the Full-Year Guidance!
$PLTR will release its Q3 earnings tonight after the U.S. market close, with a conference call scheduled at 6 AM Beijing time tomorrow morning.
The real market concern this time might not be whether revenue beats expectations, but a more practical question:
Can Palantir still rely on growth to justify its nearly 100x forward P/E ratio?
Let's look at the stock price first.
Last Friday, $PLTR dropped 6.27%, closing at $184.11, about 14% down from the all-time high of $213.
The stock price fell, but the valuation remains expensive.
The forward P/E is close to 97x, meaning the market is buying not today's performance but the expectation of sustained high growth over the next several years.
1. The real test: How much can growth continue in Q4?
Previously, the company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $8.15 billion.
Based on the first three quarters' data and the Q4 guidance, Q4 revenue needs to reach about $2.42 billion.
Here’s the issue:
Last year’s Q4 revenue was about $1.41 billion; if this forecast holds, Q4 year-over-year growth might drop to around 72%.
What the market really hopes for is whether the company can further raise its full-year guidance.
If the full-year revenue target can be increased above $8.26 billion, then the Q4 growth expectation has a chance to stay around 80%.
This is the key figure to watch tonight.
2. The second risk: order growthApple's quarterly earnings report is highly likely to exceed expectations, but the market is really focused on the guidance for the next quarter. The disclosed revenue for fiscal 2026 Q4 is $109.417 billion, with diluted EPS of $2.02. Before the report, institutions expected about $113.4 billion in revenue and EPS of $1.99; the final result was near the upper end of the guidance. The main points to watch next are: next quarter's revenue guidance—whether it can achieve mid-single-digit growth or higher; gross margin trends—memory price increases may compress profit margins; and service business growth—App Store growth is relatively slow, with subscription services receiving more attention. Therefore, this time it feels more like "meeting this quarter's targets, setting the direction for next quarter." If next quarter's guidance is weak, the stock price may still experience significant fluctuations. This does not constitute investment advice. Last night, while watching the market, my heart really raced for a moment. When the BTC theft incident hit, my first reaction was that it was over, and that the 76,000 barrier would probably break. But it actually bounced back near 76,500. Guess what that means? The negative impact from the theft didn’t break through; is it because the buying pressure is strong, or did the panic sellers just finish exiting first? Honestly, at times like this, I’m actually hesitant to get too excited because emotional trading is the most deceptive. The incident itself is significant, but the price didn’t break down accordingly, which means the market isn’t trading on a "disaster," but rather on "whether anyone will step in after the negative news settles." Some short-term panic selling did happen, but now it depends on whether funds are willing to come back and support, not just on an emotional rebound. What concerns me more is the contract structure. Long positions outnumber shorts, and during the pullback phase, the funding rate has remained positive. This actually indicates that not many dare to push the price down, and some are buying both spot and contracts during the dip. Sounds bullish, right? But this is also a risk point: crowded longs mean that if 76,500 fails to hold, stop-losses and position reductions will trigger a stampede, amplifying the drop, and all the previous optimism will be shattered. So my current position management is very restrained; I’m not chasing highs, just watching one level: can 76,500 hold? If it holds, there’s a chance next week to test the 79,100 to 80,000 range; if it doesn’t, all previous bullish logic is invalidated. This isn’t "stable"—it’s a close fight between bulls and bears below 77,000, and whoever lets go first will be passive. To sum up: the fact that the negative impact didn’t break through is a signal, but the real answer lies at 76,500, not in emotions. This does not constitute investment advice. #US October Nonfarm Payrolls Released: Is There Still a Chance for a Rate Cut?
【Follow Old Leek, Wealth Is Yours】
US October nonfarm payrolls are about to be released: the job market is cooling down, and the market is waiting for the key answer!
1️⃣ September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 jobs, employment clearly slowing
US September nonfarm employment increased by only 29,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%.
The cooling job market theoretically eases the pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates.
2️⃣ Wage growth slows, but inflation pressure cannot be ignored
Average hourly earnings in September rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, below previous wage growth rates.
3️⃣ October nonfarm market expectations are about 55,000 to 60,000 new jobs
Currently, market institutions predict about 55,000 to 60,000 new jobs in October, with the unemployment rate expected to remain around 4.2%.
📊 What impact does this have on the crypto market?
$BTC : Nonfarm payrolls below expectations may drive the market to increase bets on easing policies, but if employment data is poor enough to trigger recession fears, BTC could also face risk asset sell-offs.
$ETH : Sensitive to US dollar liquidity and market risk appetite, rising rate cut expectations may improve valuation environment.
$SOL : If market risk appetite recovers, high-volatility assets like SOL may gain more attention, but it still depends on capital flows. Why is Intel a warning sign during the same crash, while Google might be a golden opportunity?
Recently, tech stocks have collectively pulled back, and many people are watching Intel and Google, wondering if such a big drop means a chance to buy in?
But I want to say: a big price drop doesn’t necessarily mean it’s worth bottom-fishing. What really matters is why it dropped!
🔴 $INTC Intel: What’s dropping might not be an opportunity, but operational difficulties.
On the surface, the stock price has pulled back sharply and seems cheap enough. But what really needs caution is the fundamental pressure: cash flow under strain, foundry business expansion falling short of expectations, and future profitability still uncertain.
If the company’s core business logic doesn’t improve, no matter how cheap the stock is, it might just be a stop on the way down.
The biggest fear in bottom-fishing isn’t buying expensive, but buying the wrong logic.
🟢 $GOOGL Google: Short-term pressure doesn’t mean long-term value disappears.
This time, the market’s concern about Google’s pullback focuses on increased AI investment#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
Apple gave a revenue growth guidance of 14% to 17% for the last quarter, significantly higher than the 9.1% increase analysts expected at the time; meanwhile, the company warned that a surge in AI demand has caused a shortage of storage chips, which may limit future hardware supply. These two factors will directly affect the deviation direction between this quarter's actual performance and market expectations.October's situation: Bitcoin's heat went from a high stir-fry straight down to a slow simmer, with a ring of burnt smell clinging to the pot's edge — a 7.3% drop dragged the main dish's presentation from 80,000 down to the bottom plate at 77,000, with a lingering warmth of 78,000 on the rim. Even worse, on the 30th, spot Bitcoin fund customers withdrew orders totaling 643 million in one go; the enthusiasm for adding dishes over four days vanished just as quickly, and the table turnover cooled faster than a cold dish, with the front and back of the house all hearing the cancellation bells.
The platform premium index has been negative for 38 consecutive days, hitting its lowest point since November 2022 — it's like the salt in the seasoning jar got damp and clumped, the salty flavor can't suppress the sourness, and the whole pot of broth lost its freshness. When the premium turns negative, it means on-exchange money is cheaper than off-exchange, and the aroma of the main dish can't waft out of the kitchen. If the base flavor of spot demand can't be lifted, no matter how many times the main dish is reheated or rearranged, it only looks good but tastes stale. The four days of inflows were like temporary walk-in guests, arriving fast and leaving faster; the real regulars haven't even come through the door.
Cooking requires the main dish to set the plate, seasoning to refresh, and chili to finish. Now the main dish has shrunk half an inch, the seasoning has soured the base, and the chili hasn't even hit the pot but already smells acrid — the rhythm of this meal is completely off.
Looking at the kitchen's ledger: October's miner revenue was 1.215 billion, a new high for eleven months, but revenue per unit of computing power dropped 17.5%. What does this mean? Purchase prices have hit the ceiling, but output has shrunk — kitchen costs are rising, gross profit is thinning, and miners either have to turn down the heat to save fuel or clear inventory by putting their stock on display. This selling pressure can lift the pot lid at any time, especially when output per unit of computing power is still declining; if inventory isn't cleared, the fire burns with anxiety.
Next door, the US stock token targets are also rattling their plates; this linked seasoning can't be left out, but can't be overused either — too much and the flavors mix, blurring the main dish's structure.
The overall ratio at this table is now most awkward: main dish shrinking, base flavor souring, kitchen costs inverted, and the neighboring table still rattling plates. For spot demand to reheat, it depends on whether the salt jar dries out or clumps first; if miners really start clearing inventory, the amount of extra spicy chili must be measured carefully — one more spoonful and the stomach churns; one less and the fishy smell can't be suppressed.
Thirty-eight days of negative premium isn't a seasoning mishap, it's that the whole pot's base broth never really got going — no matter how strong the fire, it can't simmer out that freshness. #btcmarketsignalsdivergeI said last week that AI-driven storage demand is real, and the industry boom is undeniable. But so is the capital-driven hype. Last Friday, storage stocks took a major hit despite strong earnings: $SKHYNIX dropped nearly 8%, $MU fell 5.3%, and $SNDK plunged 13.47%. The market is now questioning more than just valuations. Rising memory prices could hurt downstream demand, forcing customers to become more cautious with budgets and inventories. AI servers and HBM demand remain strong, so the entirJasmyCoin ($JASMY)
📱 Personal data ownership is an increasingly important digital issue. Jasmy focuses on connecting IoT devices with data management solutions that give users more control over information. Its success depends on practical adoption, not just a strong concept. Would you trust a blockchain-based platform to manage your personal data?The surgical light is already on, the chest cavity has not yet been sawed open, but the numbers on the monitor have already started to scream. #PalantirQ3Valuation In this operation, the market is not watching the incision, but the valuation heart that has already been pushed to an extremely high pressure level, wondering if it can still maintain perfusion pressure.
The imaging data from the last quarter is laid out on the table: revenue grew 93% year-over-year, U.S. commercial revenue violently surged 149%, and then management raised the full-year guidance another notch. This is not a normal myocardium thickening at a steady pace; it looks more like hypertrophic cardiomyopathy—contraction strength is astonishing, but the ventricular wall is getting thicker and thicker. Any insufficient diastolic filling could trigger outflow tract obstruction. The high valuation is that obstruction; orders and revenue must continuously provide enough preload to sustain the current stroke volume.
The problem is, anesthesia has been administered, but cardiopulmonary bypass has not yet been connected. The market has laid the stage for this company with a high multiple valuation, which means every fluctuation in vital signs is monitored with maximum sensitivity. The 93% and 149% are beautiful historical ECGs but do not constitute the predictive curve for the next quarter; the real heart chamber views to be examined intraoperatively by transesophageal echocardiography are Q3 orders, revenue, and true penetration of commercial customers. What needs to be judged now is whether growth has formed an autonomous rhythm or is entirely dependent on the temporary pacing wire of guidance upgrades.
The price plunge is only a surface symptom; fever does not mean the infection focus is here. The real lesion is often hidden downstream in hemodynamics: if the assumed slope given by valuation is higher than the actual slope of business realization, the gap will not tear immediately but will leak like valve regurgitation, quietly siphoning away effective forward blood flow bit by bit. On the surface, blood pressure may still be okay, but tissue perfusion is already deteriorating. By the time the monitor alarms, the intervention window is often missed.
What I want to see is not whether Q3 can simply beat expectations, but whether each stroke volume of growth has an independent contraction source that does not rely on external stimulation. Orders are the end-diastolic volume of the heart, revenue is the ejection fraction, and guidance is the drip rate of postoperative vasoactive drugs. If all three synchronize benignly, the myocardium truly recovers; as long as one depends on medication, this high valuation still lies on the cardiopulmonary bypass machine, not yet off mechanical support, and any time of withdrawal could trigger fatal hypotension.
The intraoperative judgment of Palantir is very clear—the high valuation has already compressed the tolerance margin of the standard procedure to an extremely thin level. If Q3 experiences even one drop in perfusion pressure, it is not just a numerical fluctuation but a beginning of questioning myocardial viability.The market has fallen significantly, and the discussion in my group has become increasingly active. Everyone keeps asking the same question: Is this the right time to buy? But one important signal is still missing: sustained ETF inflows. A one- or two-day rebound is not enough to confirm that real capital is consistently returning. A genuine market recovery needs more than temporary buying pressure. [$BTC] is hovering around $77,500, down more than 4% this week. The recent Binance security incidNo matter how stunning the facade elevation is, it can't fool the rebar inspection device during testing—the 107% revenue growth in data centers is essentially a waterproofing layer on the roof that hasn't undergone a water tightness test yet; it looks shiny but whether it leaks will only be known when the heavy rain comes.
I won't be looking at how dazzling the glass curtain wall looks on AMD's Q3 report. What I want to check is the structural calculation book. The Instinct chip is a prefabricated component, while the Helios rack-level system is the modular core tube of the entire building—the problem is never how pretty the drawings are, but whether the tower crane can precisely hoist the components to the nodes. The deployment demand from cloud giants is the general contractor contract, but the contract amount does not equal the completed floor area; there is an entire construction organization design and implementation capability in between. The Q2 data center revenue doubling year-over-year is equivalent to the topping-out ceremony of the main structure, but after topping out, there are still mechanical and electrical installations, curtain wall closures, and fire inspections; any process delay will push back the delivery schedule.
What really keeps me focused is the load-bearing system's force transmission path. The Helios rack-level integrated solution bundles computing power, interconnection, power supply, and cooling into a single load-bearing unit. The advantage is high overall stiffness and short construction cycles; the downside is that a single point failure will propagate along the node plates. Large-scale deployment by cloud providers means concentrated load application; whether the transfer layer can withstand stress redistribution is the answer I most want to hear at the Q3 call. Revenue is the live load on the floor and can be estimated; gross margin is the concrete grade and cannot be compromised; and order backlog is the foundation pit support—once deformation exceeds limits, the higher you build, the more dangerous it becomes.
As for the market correlation of the US stock token $xIWM, that's another structural logic. The token price corresponds to the building's vibration response—the chip delivery rhythm is the excitation source, and earnings expectations are the damping ratio. The 107% year-over-year growth rate has already pushed the vibration mode to a higher order; any construction deviation will amplify resonance effects, causing volatility to tear a settlement crack. The cloud providers' capital expenditure plan is the geological survey report; the report says the bearing capacity is sufficient, but when piling encounters isolated rocks, the pile length must be adjusted.
My professional habit is: first look at the foundation inspection report, then the facade plan. Whether Helios can convert deployment demand into confirmed revenue depends on the quality of node connections at the delivery end, not the PPT floor height at the release end. The strong growth in data center business must stand on the basis of repeatable construction methods, not one-off showrooms. #amdq3heliosrevenueI have already cut losses
Tonight, watching the liquidation frenzy is getting intense: 158 million liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, 56,184 people out, and the hardest hit are not the longs but the shorts. BTC liquidated shorts worth 29.54 million in one day, nearly three times the longs at 10.58 million; ETH shorts at 26.99 million versus longs at 10.03 million, shorts are bleeding as well. This drop is not just a fall, it’s clearly a squeeze upwards wearing out the shorts.
In the last hour, the pressure is increasing 🤔: ETH shorts liquidated 3.3 million in one hour, longs only 400,000, an eightfold difference; ZEC shorts 390,000 versus longs 80,000, the short squeeze is accelerating. The more the shorts resist, the more they add to their positions, but each time they get worn down—this is the most tormenting part of a grinding rally.
SOL is an exception 🚨: it liquidated 4.19 million longs in one day, more than twice the shorts at 2.05 million. While others are squeezing shorts, it’s killing longs, indicating its buying power is the weakest among the four coins, no one is catching the rebound, and the longs can’t hold on themselves. I usually don’t take this kind of divergence lightly.
Next, focus on tonight’s 23:00 ISM, expected between 54.5 and 54.7, not yet released. If the data is mild, the squeeze will likely continue, and shorts will keep paying tuition; if the data is hot, the grinding rally will break, and longs chasing today should be careful about being caught in a reversal. My strategy: follow the trend but don’t heavily chase before the data release; for SOL, where longs are self-liquidating, I’ll avoid it first and add positions after the data speaks.Everyone says the US open sets crypto's direction. But the first hour moved the token book, not $BTC.
On OKX, 5 of 23 pairs green, 18 red, $BTC -0.4%. The token book repriced: XTSLA +3.4%.
My read: waiting. Breadth 5/23 means no direction formed. Risk-on off tokenized print is premature.
If the equity-token bid holds, lift $BTC and $ETH, or stay boxed in?
#OKXOrbit #Crypto #TokenizedStocks #MarketOpen
Crypto is high-risk. Personal observation only, not investment advice. DYOR.Late at night, I went through the liquidation list from the beginning. The positions that can hold and those that can't are clearer than during the day. I also double-checked that daytime position; the structure is what we need to focus on tonight.
First, a verified statement: In the large 24-hour order, long and short positions are almost evenly split, with longs at 69.55 million and shorts at 72.65 million. The entire network liquidated 142 million, with 53,781 people out. After the night data, the suspense has been digested once; I won't add any conclusions for it.
The breakdown by coin is as follows: BTC liquidated 37.75 million, ETH 36.63 million, SOL 7.26 million, and ZEC 5.21 million. The first two account for the majority, the latter two are just a fraction. 📊
Looking at the smaller one-hour order, the situation changes completely: the whole network liquidated 2.76 million, with longs accounting for 2.5 million and shorts only 258,000. Almost all short-term forced exits were longs.
Putting the two windows together, the meaning is clear: the one-day order shows balance, the one-hour order shows a short-term one-sided trend. Different windows, conclusions cannot share the same chart. I record them separately by window and do not mix judgments.
By the way, checking some off-exchange matters: The first phase of 15 network withdrawals on a certain exchange has all resumed, including BTC, ETH, SOL, and ZEC. The second phase has no fixed schedule yet; full confirmation is expected to be generated on Tuesday.
The list is here; I'll note it down first, no rush to give direction. I'll cross-check again when the next list comes out. If it matches, I'll act; if not, I'll keep watching empty-handed. 👀An on-chain investigator posted a fund flow path: over $106 million was withdrawn, split, and transferred from multiple centralized exchange accounts within about 24 hours. The public disclosure date is November 2, and the victim is only referred to as "a certain EU entity," with no company name or mention of licensing.
First, let's look at the actions. Around November 1, large withdrawals appeared simultaneously from multiple exchange accounts, denominated in $USDC and $USDT, totaling over $106 million within 24 hours, completing a "de-custody" process.
Why bypass $ETH? USDC and $USDT carry fiat on/off-ramp records, making it easy to trace back to the original accounts; ETH has ready trading pairs on more chains and platforms, making it the best intermediary to open the most exit routes. Therefore, the vast majority of withdrawals eventually converge to "USDC/USDT → ETH," then are sent to exchange venues like WellWallet and Kyrrex for swapping, and directed to new addresses via cross-chain tools. Some reports say part was converted to $XMR through Wagyu, but with only a single source, it can only be marked as "to be verified."
Next is the characterization. No exchange was named, nor did any platform admit to being hacked. Multiple CEX accounts were involved rather than a single login point, so outsiders cannot attribute this to "a certain system being breached," nor can they rule out weak account management.
One question remains: every transaction can be seen on-chain, but seeing does not equal recovering. The security boundary of custodial accounts is ultimately determined by the platform's risk control.#PalantirQ3Valuation
Palantir Q3 drops tonight — the AI valuation test. $2.18B revenue expected (+84% YoY), EPS $0.41 (+95%), Market Cap ∼$447B at ∼89x forward P/E.
US Commercial +149% YoY is driving it, now >40% of mix. But at $184 pre-earnings, even a beat may not be enough — options price 13% move. Watch guidance.
Growth is real, price is premium.
#PalantirQ3Valuation #PLTR #Palantir #AIStocks #Earnings #OKX #OKXOrbit #AITrade #TechStocks #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
It is highly likely to slightly exceed expectations, but the guidance risk is more worth paying attention to.
Supporting factors: Apple has exceeded EPS expectations for the past eight quarters. This quarter's consensus expects revenue of about $113.4 billion and EPS of about $1.99. Goldman Sachs expects revenue of $113.6 billion and EPS of $2.01, slightly higher than consensus; Jefferies predicts revenue and EPS to exceed consensus by 4% and 5% respectively, based on the logic of an early buying spree for iPhones before the September price increase.
However, the hidden risk lies in: rising memory prices are squeezing gross margins, and Jefferies warns that next quarter's guidance may fall short of expectations due to weaker-than-expected demand for the iPhone 18 Pro and limited upside surprises from the foldable Duo. Exceeding expectations is a "point," but guidance is the "momentum"—a slight beat in performance is easy, but if next quarter's guidance is weak, the market reaction may be negative. #Perspectivas del informe financiero de Palantir: Can high growth sustain the high valuation?
I wouldn't want to talk about Palantir since over time I have stopped seeing it as an evil company that intends to spy on each of us and have started to see its fundamental value.
To answer honestly the question Can high growth sustain the high valuation?
In the long term, growth alone is not enough to maintain a high valuation.Data explodes, stock prices weaken: which signal do you trust?
South Korea's chip exports in October surged 259% year-on-year, reaching $56.4 billion in a single month, with semiconductors almost supporting half of the country's foreign trade. Normally, this should be a signal for the sector's celebration. But the market gave the opposite answer: despite positive news from SNDK, Micron, and Hynix, their stock prices have been continuously weak.
This is not a problem with fundamentals, but the trading rhythm is speaking. Export data is a rearview mirror; stock prices are the early vote. Shortages, price increases, and cycle reversals—if these logics have already been priced in by capital, then subsequent explosive data is merely a window to cash out chips.
The "super cycle" may be real, but "real" does not mean "buy now." A good story and a good buying point are always two different things. Chasing at the top earns emotions but loses principal. When narrative and price conflict, price is more honest—money does not lie.
So the question is simple: do you trust the explosive data, or the falling stock prices? #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单