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Tonight's nonfarm payrolls really give BTC no room to breathe...
New jobs added: 165,000, expected only 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%
After the data release, $BTC quickly dipped from around 76,000 to about 75,600, then although it rebounded somewhat, it still couldn't firmly reclaim 76,000
This is a bit frustrating
Last night's sharp drop in US stocks has already caused a significant contraction in market risk appetite, and BTC itself is in a weak recovery phase after deleveraging;
Now with nonfarm payrolls far exceeding expectations, the Fed's confidence in maintaining a tightening policy is stronger, the dollar and US Treasury yields are strengthening, which is obviously not friendly to risk assets
I currently maintain a bearish bias:
In the short term, focus on whether 76,000 can be firmly reclaimed, with support near 75,000 below; if even the previously broken level can't be recovered, this rebound probably won't go far
Tonight's US stock market opening performance will be quite critical, especially whether the Nasdaq can hold steady
What BTC needs now is probably a truly strong rebound
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 The earnings report set a record, but the stock price dropped 22% in one day. SanDisk really confuses people.
The Q1 earnings report on October 29 showed revenue of $11.03 billion, exceeding expectations, with data center revenue at $4.8 billion, up 61% quarter-over-quarter, and next quarter guidance between $12.2 billion and $12.6 billion.
However, on Thursday it closed at $806.43, down 22.26%, with an intraday low of $803.97. The $1000 mark was broken easily.
Honestly, the performance didn’t change, what changed was the expectations.
After the midterm elections, the market worries about tightening in data centers. Goldman Sachs estimates that states possibly tightening account for about 45% of the planned capacity in the US, and the story of storage price increases has been crushed.
It’s not just this company; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12.25% on Thursday, the worst since March 2000, and Micron also dropped 17.46%.
I think this cut isn’t about the earnings report, it’s about sentiment. Since the beginning of the year, it has still risen 240%.
It has already bounced back to around $905 pre-market, up more than 12%, but I won’t chase this rebound.
My plan is: if it stands back above $1000 at the open, I’ll add a position to take a look; if it doesn’t hold, I’ll keep waiting. If it falls below $804, I’ll admit my mistake and exit.
I won’t make a move before the non-farm payrolls report at 9:30 PM tonight. $SNDK $MU $NVDA
#存储芯片股反复震荡，调整是否结束？ Hyperliquid achieves the cryptocurrency "Triple Crown" by having fee income from L1, DEX, and stablecoins. $SSV is priming for a massive bullish reversal rally.
The recent dip has tapped directly into a high-probability demand block[span_16](start_span)[span_16](end_span).
Buy Zone
2.10 - 2.252[span_17](start_span)[span_17](end_span)
Ep
2.17
Tp
2.42
2.65
2.90
Sl
1.98
Selling exhaustion is complete as aggressive buyers step in to defend structural support floors with absolute confidence. Expect a fast expansion back upward.
Let's go $SSV
#OKXOrbitTopics 1. Seasonally adjusted new nonfarm payrolls: 165,000
Expected 65,000, previous value revised up from 29,000 to 60,000; August and September combined revised up by 84,000, employment resilience significantly exceeding market expectations
2. Unemployment rate: 4.1%, expected 4.2%, previous 4.2% (slight decline)
3. Average hourly earnings
Month-over-month +0.4% (expected 0.3%); year-over-year +3.1% (expected 2.9%), wage inflation stickiness higher than expected
4. Labor force participation rate: 61.9%, previous 61.8%, slight increase
Overall stronger than expected: new employment significantly exceeded expectations + historical data revisions + wage increases, indicating that the US labor market has not weakened as quickly as previously anticipated by the market.
Market pricing changes:
The market has revised upward the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates / no rate cut in December, with US Treasury yields rising rapidly; growth stocks, tech stocks, and cryptocurrencies, which are sensitive to interest rates, are under pressure.
- Private nonfarm payrolls increased by 159,000, manufacturing added 19,000, employment growth mainly driven by services and manufacturing.
Immediate market reaction
1. US Treasuries: 10-year Treasury yields rose sharply
2. US stocks: Nasdaq and tech stocks plunged in the short term (high valuation assets most sensitive to rising rates)
3. Gold: sharp short-term decline
4. Cryptocurrencies: BTC and ETH further pressured, continuing the correction trend.Zcash ($ZEC): Does Financial Privacy Matter More Than Ever? 🔐
Privacy is an important part of the broader blockchain conversation. Zcash offers privacy-focused transactions through zero-knowledge cryptography, allowing users to protect transaction details when using shielded features. Its technology highlights how blockchain systems can explore confidentiality while maintaining verifiable transactions. As digital finance expands, should privacy be considered a fundamental feature of crypto🚨 AI BUBBLE CRACKS, US STOCKS AT RISK OF DEEPER DECLINE!
The S&P 500 just dropped 4.36% in one session, Nasdaq lost over 5.5%. Selling pressure increases as AI stock valuations remain high.
SCENARIO:
* EMA 200 → key support zone
* 6,200 points → deep decline target
* Support holds → possible recovery
* Support breaks → risk of prolonged correction
The sell-off is not enough to confirm the AI bubble has burst, but it signals a warning of a greater correction risk.Cosmos ($ATOM): Can Different Blockchains Finally Communicate? 🔗
Blockchain fragmentation remains one of the industry's biggest challenges. Cosmos approaches this problem through an interconnected ecosystem built around interoperability and the Inter-Blockchain Communication protocol. The goal is to help independent blockchains exchange information and assets more effectively. A connected blockchain economy could unlock new possibilities for developers and users. Is interoperability more imporAt 10 PM, on the eve of the US stock market opening, BTC fell below 76,000 approaching 75,600. The black swan deleveraging combined with the pre-nonfarm liquidity crisis has fully erupted.
Just checked the latest data across the network: BTC dipped below the critical 76,000 mark, triggering another wave of liquidations across the network; market makers' depth was halved and ETFs continued to withdraw funds, with a severe gap in buy orders on the order book, and the price is heavily suppressed around 75,600.
$BTC: 75,600 hanging by a thread, the 50-week moving average faces a life-or-death battle.
Previous reference price was 80,200. After a failed rally, bulls exhausted, 77,500 quickly turned into a strong short-term resistance. Buy orders on the order book are extremely fragile; if the US stock market opens and fails to hold the 75,000 level, beware of a drop to 73,500.
$ETH: Lost the 2,300 level, retreating to weak consolidation around 2,260.
Previous reference price was 2,410. Weak follow-up gains combined with on-chain selling pressure shadows, the exchange rate is testing a new low. Currently pulling back to 2,260 in a tug-of-war; if the 2,200 defense line breaks, a faster drop to 2,100 is feared.
$SOL: Rebound blocked at the 100 level, falling back to oscillate near 93.
Previous reference price was 97. Encountered dense unlocking selling pressure just below 100 after a rally; after the market weakened, it fell back again near 93. The depth of support is seriously insufficient, chips are loosening significantly, and the rebound is very likely to trigger a second sell-off.
Summary: After a false breakout, a quick pullback broke through 76,000, BTC bottomed near 75,600, altcoins have even weaker support. Prices and funds are still searching for a bottom at low levels.
With the US stock market opening imminent, the true stable bottom has yet to emerge.
#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 Elizabeth Warren May Lead Senate Banking Committee: A New Warning Sign for the U.S. Cryptocurrency Industry.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Senator Elizabeth Warren is expected to become the chair of the Senate Banking Committee. This development is significant because she has long been considered one of the strongest voices in Congress opposing the cryptocurrency industry.
If this happens, the cryptocurrency industry may face increased regulatory pressure, especially in areas such as anti-money laundering, investor protection, stablecoins, and exchange operations.
What is concerning is not only new regulations but also the possibility that legislation to establish a legal framework for cryptocurrencies may be delayed or tightened.
From a market perspective, this could negatively impact U.S. investor sentiment and digital asset businesses. However, the actual impact will still depend on Senate control and the committee's agenda.Jupiter ($JUP): Making Solana DeFi Easier to Navigate 🪐
Finding efficient token swaps across decentralized markets can be challenging. Jupiter helps Solana users discover trading routes and access DeFi tools through one ecosystem. Its role highlights how aggregation can improve the overall trading experience without requiring users to manually compare every available route. As decentralized finance evolves, will platforms like Jupiter become essential tools for everyday crypto users?Ondo ($ONDO): Bringing Traditional Finance On-Chain 🏦
Real-world asset tokenization is connecting traditional financial products with blockchain technology. Ondo Finance is working in this space through tokenized financial products designed to provide on-chain access to traditional assets. This approach could make financial markets more accessible and programmable, although regulation and asset backing remain important considerations. Could tokenized real-world assets become one of crypto's mo$XRP I'll be straightforward, the 1.182 price level for XRP is a mess! The manipulative whales are aggressively dumping money, each candlestick looks worse than the last, this shakeout is way too obvious, clearly with malicious intent. 🔥
From a technical perspective, there's heavy selling pressure above 1.18, the rebound lacks volume, MACD shows a bearish crossover pointing down, the short-term is completely dominated by bears. Don't fantasize about any good news, this is purely a capital-driven dump, jumping in now is just catching the knife.
My straightforward idea: short along the trend near 1.182, set stop loss above 1.205, target first at 1.15, if broken then look at 1.12. Don't chase highs or bottom-fish, follow the whales' rhythm.
If you want to get in, click the market card below to see real-time order book, don't wait until it rallies to call me. Whether you follow or not, risk is on you.
👇👇👇【On-Chain Trading Activity｜xyz:SOXL】
Monitored address 0x6838 opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $46.01
▪ Transaction amount this time: $50,193.86
▪ Leverage: 2x
Note: This address has earned over $182,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +36.43% XRP holders responded to Litecoin's recent taunts with a three-year CoinMarketCap chart. The chart shows XRP in a gain range, while LTC is below its starting level. On November 5, Litecoin's official X account posted a response video containing discriminatory language against people with disabilities; according to BeInCrypto, since the end of 2024, XRP's price has more than doubled, while LTC's trading price is over 85% below its $410 record set in May 2021. This dispute also includes Litecoin mocking Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse in August 2025. Readers pointed out that Zcash has outperformed LTC this year; meanwhile, on days when Bitcoin and Ethereum funds suffered losses, the US spot XRP ETF still recorded inflows. $XRP $BTC $ETH Arbitrum ($ARB): Ethereum Scaling Is Still a Big Conversation! ⚡
Ethereum's ecosystem needs efficient scaling solutions, and Arbitrum is an important name in that discussion. Its Layer 2 technology helps process transactions outside Ethereum's main execution layer while benefiting from Ethereum's security architecture. Lower transaction costs and improved user experience can support broader decentralized application adoption. Do you think Layer 2 networks will become the primary gateway to EtheBut the real key lies in the 3.1% in the hourly wage. 1. First, let's lay out the data Beijing time 21:30, BLS released the October employment report: Nonfarm payrolls +165,000 +59,000 +29,000 Unemployment rate 4.1% 4.4% 4.2% Average hourly earnings (YoY) +3.1% — +3.0% Average hourly earnings (MoM) +0.4% (+14 cents to $38.00) — +0.1% August revision upward by 53,000 (to +186,000) — +133,000 Average weekly hours 34.4 hours (unchanged) — 34.4 hours The new jobs added are 2.8 times the expectation and 3.4 times the average of the past 12 months (48,000/month). The unemployment rate did not rise; it actually fell. BLS original statement: "Nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 in October, above the average monthly increase of 48,000 over the past 12 months." The increase was concentrated in three sectors: professional and business services, healthcare, transportation and warehousing. This is not a report of "employment is okay," but a report that completely overturns the "recession narrative." 2. But the truly important figure is 3.1% If you only look at the headline — 165,000, far exceeding expectations — the first reaction should be "The Fed will raise rates, risk assets will crash." But the market did not crash. Why? Because the year-over-year hourly wage increase is only 3.1%. Putting the three numbers together, the logic becomes clear: Employment greatly exceeded preNonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, narrowing the decline, but long positions are still taking hits
A quick look before 10: Nonfarm added 165,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 65,000, unemployment rate at 4.1%. The decline in the three coins narrowed compared to the afternoon, but long positions are still taking hits.
$BTC: Decline narrowed, more short positions taking hits
Current price 75,850, 24h down 4.91%, low 75,200 not broken, narrowed from 5.99% in the afternoon. Long-short ratio 2.89. Open interest 2.632 billion U. In the last 277 minutes, 100 liquidations: longs 565,000, shorts 723,000, rebound first lifts shorts.
$ETH: Decline narrowed, still the harshest
Current price 2,235.61, 24h down 6.43%, low 2,206, narrowed from 7.96% in the afternoon, still the harshest. Long-short ratio 3.29. Open interest 1.553 billion U. In the last 90 minutes, 100 liquidations: longs 608,000, shorts 113,000.
$SOL: Decline narrowed, longs bleeding the most
Current price 90.28, 24h down 5.40%, low 88.29. Long-short ratio 3.68, the tightest among the three coins. Open interest 318 million U. In the last 563 minutes, 100 liquidations: longs 820,000, shorts 65,000.
Commentary: Narrowing is a fact, but the long-short ratio is all above 2.9, SOL longs are still being liquidated, don't take it as a trend reversal.
Summary: Narrowing is not a reversal, not breaking 75,200 is good news, but bulls are still crowded, don't rush to conclusions before bed. With such strong nonfarm data, is it stabilization or a pullback continuation?
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $ZEC On September 15, the CLARITY Act failed a procedural vote in the Senate by 49 to 50, officially declaring it "stillborn." The Democrats collectively opposed it, with the core reason being — "We cannot allow crypto assets to bypass the SEC's strict regulation." The bill originally aimed to shift the primary regulatory authority over digital commodities from the SEC to the more industry-friendly CFTC, but now it's completely off the table. What's more troublesome is that after the Democrats took control of Congress, the new framework under discussion is to expand the SEC's authority in the opposite direction and reduce the CFTC's role. Secret tracks? Won't they be targeted?BTC fell below 76,000 dollars, but the real killer is actually leverage!
On November 5th, BTC smashed through 76,000, triggering 1.08 billion dollars in liquidations across the entire network within 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 954 million.
This drop is not isolated to the crypto market; tech stocks in the US stock market also took a hit, causing market risk appetite to cool off sharply. Coupled with chained leverage liquidations, the decline was amplified.
Now, the focus is on three things: whether spot funds are stepping in to buy, whether contract leverage has been fully liquidated, and whether the volume can keep up during the subsequent rebound.
How much the price falls is just the surface; the capital structure is the core. A big drop followed by a bullish candle does not equal a reversal. Don’t rush to guess the bottom everywhere; first see if it can stabilize before saying anything.Nonfarm payrolls exploded: 165,000 people, expected only 65,000
The nonfarm payrolls report at 21:30 tonight came out with numbers much stronger than expected: 165,000 new jobs added in October, while the expectation was only 65,000, more than two and a half times higher. The unemployment rate is 4.1%, expected 4.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from September's 4.2%.
Previous months' numbers were also revised upward: September was revised from 29,000 to 60,000, August from 133,000 to 186,000, totaling 84,000 more jobs over two months. Hourly wages rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, both hotter than expected.
This is not good news for the crypto space: the hotter the employment, the less reason the Fed has to ease, and the December rate hike sword still hangs. $BTC is currently around $75,600, basically unchanged after the data release, still close to the $75,200 low.
The next test is the CPI on November 10.Some altcoins have their own momentum, so their price action doesn't always follow the broader market trend (although this usually doesn't last for long). As for $AKE , I think it's better to wait for a deeper pullback. Right around the 3940 support level would be a good long entry, with a target around 7000.Render ($RENDER): Is Decentralized GPU Power the Future of AI? 🤖
AI development needs enormous computing power, and that is where Render Network enters the conversation. RENDER connects people who need GPU resources with providers who have computing capacity available. Its decentralized model creates an alternative approach to accessing rendering and AI infrastructure. As demand for compute grows, could decentralized GPU networks become an important part of the AI economy?Jobs beat expectations — and $BTC still hasn't broken $75,000. A strong print usually means fewer rate cuts and a stronger dollar, yet BTC is holding at $75,854. Support $75,000, resistance $76,873. If the jobs beat can't break it, what will? #Bitcoin #BTC #USJobsBeatExpectationsGlobal market are crashing
Nasdaq entered in bear territory and S&P falling too
$BTC and crypto dumping with US markets and if US markets slips further then crypto will go more down
Keep eyes on US markets
Hard to predict bottom but it's depend on War situation and democrats decisions$TU
When will the high dividend of telecom stocks become a burden?
TELUS appears on this Friday's earnings calendar. Telecom revenue has a certain degree of repeatability, but network construction, competitive promotions, and debt interest will affect the cash balance after dividends. Dividend yield cannot replace coverage ability.
If capital expenditures decline while customer retention remains stable, cash returns have a stronger foundation; if continuous borrowing is needed to maintain dividends, I would view the yield as a risk signal rather than proof of cheapness. When Boss Shi placed the order this time, many people directly got liquidated. To put it simply, even the best experts can make mistakes! Everyone's position size, leverage, and trading cycle are completely different, so don't blindly follow the crowd.
Take my order from yesterday as an example. I prepared two plans myself: if BTC firmly breaks through 82,000, I would decisively stop loss and wait to short again in the 84,000–84,800 range; if it can't break 82,000, I would hold the position, take some profit, and then wait and see.
Having been creating content for so long, I've shared all the technical knowledge I can, but trading mindset can only be honed by oneself. Repeatedly making mistakes and executing trades, gradually refining a trading system that belongs to you—this path is inherently difficult.Recently, the crypto market has gotten lively again, but don’t rush in right away.
First, check your own wallet to see if you can handle the ups and downs.
$BTC is like a big pancake, more stable, but it can still wobble.
$ETH has more stories, rises fast, and falls just as harshly.
Don’t borrow money to play, don’t put your rent or living expenses at risk.
Just watch the group calls, the real money comes from your own pocket.
If you want to try, start small and plan ahead when to exit.
Don’t get cocky when you profit, and don’t lose your head when you lose.
The market is open every day; opportunities won’t miss this one. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅
#美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 Vietnam study camp ended, just got home, no live streaming tonight, chatting about the market in text
BTC's current decline drivers
External: Nasdaq dropped 5% in one day, Tesla -11%, Nvidia -7%, risk appetite sharply declined, optimistic election sentiment faded.
Internal: CVD continues to hit new highs but price stagnates without breakthrough, upward momentum insufficient, clear signs of bull exhaustion, decline was anticipated early.
Large-scale daily false breakout at 82800 confirmed, price fell back into range and made a lower low, trend is bearish
Rebound conditions and targets
Bottoming signal: After breaking below previous low 74800 and quickly recovering, funding rate turns negative, initiating a confirmed B-wave rebound.
Volume breakout above 1-hour horizontal resistance at 76500, short-term stop of decline and stabilization can be a buy signal
After the surge the day before yesterday, sentiment was extremely euphoric, generally mistaking small-scale bottom breaks as "major bottom + bull market restart," which is emotional judgment. Avoid defining bull or bear markets based on single-day moves; short-term candlesticks do not represent long-term trend reversals
Short-term strong support: 74800 USD (previous low) is a good entry for long positions; as long as price does not effectively break below this level, do not be overly bearish
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC $ETH I don't understand why every time an exchange is hacked, it seems like the exchange is also a victim?
Assuming it's a staged event, could it be that some coins are effectively frozen, and the compensation paid to users is essentially an external inflow of funds into the market?
This money could be used to profit from both long and short positions, and the earned profits would be enough to cover the so-called "compensation".
The money of the wealthy is fully returned, while the common people's money is split 70/30.$SNDK group members ask, why am I so persistent about SanDisk shorting? First, I am in the chip industry; secondly, SanDisk won't get many storage chip orders in Q4 and next year, or will get very few. Moreover, they plan to split the stock. Also, today's financial tokens and financial stocks are all crazily rising and then falling.Brothers, keep a close eye on these three altcoins today, don’t rush in impulsively just because you see a rebound 🧐
$AKE: The sell-off has no bottom at all
It’s a daily slow decline, and some always think this is the bottom. Altcoins don’t have a solid bottom; there’s a bunch of trapped positions above. Why would the whales pump it for you? There might even be a delisting trap later, so don’t blindly bottom-fish.
$BEAT: Consolidating at a high level, clearly waiting for someone to take over
The movement is similar to the previous pump to 10 bucks, consolidating for a few days before making a move. But consolidation doesn’t mean it will rise; once enough bottom-fishers pile in, it can crash anytime.
$FOGO: The overall trend is still bearish
After such a long drop, just a small rebound and people want to enter? The risk is huge. This pump might just be sweeping out short positions rolling over; there’s no sign of a reversal at all.
The biggest fear in altcoins isn’t missing out, it’s bottom-fishing halfway up the mountain and getting more trapped the more you buy. Until the trend is clearly established, controlling your impulses is better than anything else. My Bitcoin trading strategy for November 6. $BTC
Bitcoin's price has just experienced a fairly sharp drop, falling from around $80,800 to about $75,300. Notably, during this decline, selling pressure significantly increased, and trading volume also surged dramatically.
From the H1 timeframe perspective, I don't believe Bitcoin will immediately reverse its upward trend. Instead, I lean toward the price potentially continuing to drop to the potential liquidity zone of $74,500-$75,000 before forming a technical rebound.
My trading strategy
Currently, I prefer to wait for Bitcoin's price to fall back to the $74,500-$75,000 range to look for long opportunities. If a buying pressure confirmation signal appears, the near-term rebound target price will be in the $76,500-$76,900 range.A while ago, I was transferring $USDT to a friend.
After copying the address, I was about to paste it.
My hand trembled and I took another look.
I found the first few characters matched,
but the ending was different.
I quickly deleted it and copied again,
muttering to myself.
Later I learned this is called address poisoning.
Someone inserts a similar address into your history,
waiting for you to be careless next time.
Since then, I always do three things before transferring.
First, verify the first six and last six characters of the address.
Then, make a small test transfer.
Only after it arrives do I send the rest.
For large amounts like $BTC, I’m even more cautious.
After copying, I always double-check.
Before transferring $ETH, I also check if the network is correct.
Now when others urge me to hurry,
I say it’s not worth rushing this step.
If the address is off by one character,
the money is gone.
Taking a little more time to check carefully
is better than anything else.#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
#美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势
#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 This drop in $ETH has even triggered the ancient whales to come out. Early this morning, the whales made a big bottom-fishing move, with an average buy-in price of 2248, and the first wave bought up 2221 ETH.
So although ETH is currently stuck in a descending channel, with the price below all short-term moving averages and the price having fallen below the 2250 bullish lifeline, there's no need to panic. The faith in ETH as a major coin is strong; when it hits the bottom, buyers will step in, and when the market turns, it will rise quickly.
Just like $BTC today, after breaking below the 7-day and 25-day moving averages yesterday, it has been oscillating around 76,000 today. Of course, large-scale bulls haven't entered the market yet, so the bears still dominate over the bulls.$AERO Damn it! The AERO market movement is so weird, the shakeout is making people's scalps tingle. This wave is purely a capital showdown, the candlestick clearly wants to make a move, is the manipulator suppressing it from rising? Don't be greedy, set your stop loss and jump in! Enter at 0.6024, this wave is solid 🔥 If you want to follow, go to the token market card below to ambush, don't chase the high. ⚠️ The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, please make decisions cautiously, profits and losses are your own responsibility.
👇👇👇Suddenly realized, in every Bitcoin crash crisis, wealth is being brewed
2011: Crashed 94%, Bitcoin fell from $32 to $2 due to a hacker attack
2013: Crashed 90%, from $1000 down to $100, China's first round of regulation
2017–2018: Crashed 84% again, from $19,000 down to over $3,000, the entire industry bubble burst
2021–2022: Crashed 77% again, from $69,000 down to $15,000, due to Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and the FTX collapse
2025–this year: From $126,000 last December down to $75,000 now, due to the overall decline in enthusiasm within the crypto industry and severe capital outflow.
So, every crash is brewing a rebirth, just to surge higher next time. Non-farm payrolls at 165,000, expected only 65,000, way better than expected, the market immediately started betting on a December rate hike.
$BTC dropped straight to 75,520 within 15 minutes after the data release, but was quickly pulled back above 75,800, not even touching the afternoon low. Normally, such data should have pushed it down through support, but it only dipped briefly. The problem is there’s no improvement above either; the highest tonight was 76,350, still unable to reach 76,400. Now it’s stuck between 75,100 and 76,400. The 1H candle close on either side will determine the real direction tonight.
$ETH is the same, dipped to 2,223 then pulled back, didn’t break the afternoon low of 2,212, and 2,250 is still pressing down.
The bearish pressure can’t push it down, so the bears seem weak; but to move up, it still needs to reclaim 76,400 first. $XAU $XAU
Overall, gold is under short-term pressure due to the strong non-farm payrolls and rising rate hike expectations, but medium- to long-term support remains. The key factors to watch next are CPI, Federal Reserve statements, US Treasury yields, and whether the $4035 level can hold.The overnight market experienced a sharp deleveraging, with nearly 200,000 traders forcibly liquidated. Over 90% of the losses came from long positions, and about 10 billion in risk exposure was cleared within 24 hours. Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently near 75,756, having previously dipped to a seven-week low of 75,463. The 50-week moving average at 75,733 is also precarious. The 75,000 level has become an important watershed; holding it means only the leverage bubble has been cleared, but if it breaks, a deeper correction space will open. Ethereum ($ETH) is showing different pressure. Spot ETFs have seen continuous outflows for several days, and the price near 2,232 diverges from on-chain activity, reflecting that paper demand is falling faster than actual network usage. It first needs to hold the psychological level of 2,200. Only if the daily close stands above 2,400 can a warming signal be confirmed. SOL ($SOL) has the weakest technical pattern among the three, currently priced at 89.71. The daily RSI has dropped to 29.4, entering oversold territory, while breaking below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming a downtrend. The previous low of 88.76 is the last support; if lost, the target is 80. The core trigger for this round of decline is leverage chain liquidations, not a fundamental change. After liquidation, a short-term strong rebound often occurs, but this does not mean the long structure is repaired. The focus going forward is whether spot buying can hold $BTC at 75,000 and whether Ethereum ETF funds can stabilize. If it is just a simple deleveraging washout, the rebound will come quickly; if Bitcoin$HYPE – 1H Signal
Entry: 79.10 – 79.30 (after breakout)
TP1: 80.00
TP2: 80.80
TP3: 81.50
Stop Loss: 78.20
Resistance: 79.10
Support: 78.00 / 77.70
Price is showing recovery, but confirmation is needed above 79.10. Avoid chasing before breakout.
Risk management is essential.
#DailyOrbit @OKX 预言家 $ZEC Observation: NU7 upgrade is live, spot price almost flat
Zcash mainnet activated NU7 at block 3543405, reducing target block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds
Transaction fees: 60% go into the network perpetual mechanism, 40% to miners, supply cap remains 21 million
OKEx current price about $1311, 24-hour increase 0.07%, volume about 93.9 million, high/low 1336.73 / 1213.56
During the same period, BTC dropped about 4.7%, ETH dropped about 6.4%, upgrade benefits not immediately reflected in price.SanDisk has been extremely volatile these past two days: first a crash, then a rebound, with volatility maxed out.
November 5 (Wednesday): A single-day plunge of 22.26%, closing at $806.43, with an intraday low of $803.97. Trading volume surged sharply to 30.1 million shares (compared to only 11.54 million shares the previous day). This was not just a SanDisk issue; the entire storage chain was hit hard: Micron fell over 12%, Western Digital dropped over 13%, Seagate declined over 13%, Kioxia ADR fell over 15%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 8.31% that day. The direct trigger for the crash was the midterm elections resulting in the Democrats sweeping both chambers, raising market concerns about tighter data center regulations and collective valuation cuts across the AI infrastructure chain. The storage sector became an outlet for emotional selling.
November 6 (Thursday): Pre-market saw a sharp rebound of over 11%, reaching $896.66, recovering $90 from the previous close of $806.43. Chip stocks rose broadly in pre-market trading, with Nvidia up over 5%, AMD up over 8%, and SanDisk up over 12%. However, it is important to note that the overnight rebound only recovered about half of the previous day's losses. The stock price still has a significant gap from the November 4 closing price of $1037 and remains well below the $1200–$1400 range seen at the end of October $SNDK $DKNG
This time DraftKings didn't see a drop in revenue, but rather a shift in spending direction. Q3 revenue increased 16% year-over-year to $1.329 billion, but net loss widened to $469 million; the company is allocating more resources to its prediction market business, with adjusted EBITDA investment expected to be $650 million to $700 million by 2026.
The stock price was clearly under pressure before Friday's open, as the market focused on losses and guidance rather than just revenue growth. OKX's DKNG perpetual contract is currently at 17.13, with a 24-hour open at 23.07 and a low of 16.92, already reflecting the earnings gap quite directly.
I'm not in a hurry to interpret this drop as a complete business collapse. Whether the prediction market will bring returns is still unproven, but the investment is already on the books; in the short term, I will watch how the company delivers going forward rather than prematurely pricing the long-term story into valuation on behalf of management.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 I always thought "smart accounts" were just multi-signature tools to help manage private keys. But it turns out they had $57.64 billion on the books at the end of Q3.
What’s even more outrageous is that $12.4 billion of that is DeFi positions, which is the net value after deducting $2.37 billion in loans. At the end of Q2, it was only $27.24 billion, so it doubled in three months. Part of it was a free gain from $ETH rising 66%, and another part was real stablecoin inflows of $7.48 billion, up 15%.
But the transfer volume only increased by 13.7%. Assets doubled, but activity didn’t double — just like the small amount of coins in my account: it looks like more, but actually nothing was done.$SNDK ｜ Why I am firmly bearish on SanDisk?
The market is treating the cyclical boom in the storage industry as an endless growth story.
But I believe the biggest risk for $SNDK right now is not that the company is not good enough, but that the market has overdrawn too much of the future in advance.
① The storage industry cannot escape cycles. NAND price increases can improve profits, but high profits also stimulate supply recovery. Today's tight supply and demand does not mean it will remain tight tomorrow.
② Stock price increase does not equal value appreciation. When the market starts pricing with the most optimistic expectations, any shortfall can become a trigger to kill valuation.
③ AI demand is not a universal talisman. AI can bring new demand, but it does not mean all storage manufacturers can enjoy excess profits in the long term.
④ Short selling does not require the company to go bankrupt, only that market expectations return to reality.
Bulls trade on the imagination of unlimited future growth, bears trade on the possibility of valuation and cycle reversion.
What I am bearish on is not SanDisk's products, but the market's excessive optimism about $SNDK.
The more it rises, the more cautious you should be about expectation reversals.
I choose to stand on the bearish side, waiting for the market to reprice.
#SNDK #SanDisk #USStocks #ShortSelling #NAND #StorageChips
Personal opinion, not investment advice.#AAOIQ3 revenue increased by 128% year-over-year, hitting a new high for six consecutive quarters (Applied Optoelectronics). This financial report strongly proves the fundamentals of the AI optical module sector. The core driver of the revenue surge is the data center business, with this segment's income soaring 254% year-over-year. The 800G volume ramp and 1.6T securing long-term large orders from leading cloud providers, along with turning profitable on a GAAP basis, officially achieving profitability, demonstrate strong fundamental fulfillment.
However, two concerns should be noted. First, the gross margin fell short of guidance due to a higher proportion of low-margin 400G products, which boosted revenue but dragged down profit elasticity; second, the expansion of the new US domestic factory has been delayed, limiting capacity ramp-up. Although 1.6T orders are sufficient, delivery bottlenecks will restrict subsequent shipment ceilings, and next quarter's revenue guidance is below market consensus.
A bigger contradiction lies in the sector environment: currently, Philadelphia Semiconductor and computing power chains are collectively cutting valuations, with capital withdrawing from the computing power supply side. Even if performance exceeds expectations, individual stocks will be swept up by sector sentiment, likely resulting in a "good news priced in" scenario.
Going forward, key tracking points include the pace of capacity deployment, the progress of 1.6T mass delivery, and cloud providers' capital expenditure plans. Only if capacity is smoothly released and the proportion of high-margin high-end products rises can the sector offset macro pressures. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Samsung has integrated $USDC into its Samsung Wallet, which is a noteworthy move for stablecoins. $SAMSUNG
About 82 million Galaxy devices in the U.S. are compatible with USDC transfer functionality, allowing eligible users to use this feature.
The best part is, cryptocurrency doesn't necessarily have to start from an exchange. Now, it can be deposited directly into the mobile wallet you are familiar with.$ETH
The Moscow Exchange announced that BTC, ETH, and USDT trading will start on December 1, beginning with a pilot phase. This news has regulatory implications, but I don't equate "starting trading" directly with a new large buying wave.
Retail investors still need to pass tests first, and the annual purchase limit per single broker is 300,000 rubles, which is only a few thousand dollars. It seems more like opening the door to compliant trading; how much real volume it can bring initially depends on participants and product details.
ETH spot is currently around $2236, with a 24-hour low of $2206; perpetual positions are about $1.55 billion, with slightly negative funding rates. The price remains near the daily low, so I will consider Moscow's progress as a mid-term observation and will not use it to justify immediate buying pressure.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Why is an unemployment rate of 4.1%+ and a month-over-month hourly wage increase of +0.4% a fatal blow to the bulls?
Unemployment rate drops instead of rising (4.2%$\rightarrow$4.1%): The core reason the Fed started the rate cut cycle was to prevent the unemployment rate from exceeding 4.3%–4.4%, which would trigger the "Sam Rule" recession warning. Now, with the labor force participation rate rising to 62.8%, the unemployment rate has counterintuitively fallen to 4.1%, indicating that U.S. companies still have strong hiring demand. The probability of the Fed pausing rate cuts in December (holding steady) has instantly surged in the interest rate futures market.
Hourly wages surge +0.4% month-over-month (the most dangerous inflation bomb): Wall Street originally expected hourly wages to drop from 3.0% year-over-year to 2.9%, but instead, the month-over-month rate jumped +0.4%, pushing the year-over-year growth back up to 3.1%. Wage increases mean inflation pressure remains, making it difficult for U.S. Treasury yields (10-year now above 4.86%+) and the dollar index (DXY holding above 102.04) to fall tonight.
With stronger rate hike expectations, prices continue to fall tonight. $BTC $ENA $ETH