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PEPE is showing surprising resilience, up +4.4% today and +75% over 90 days. It's holding firmly above the MA20 ($PEPE 0.00000463) after a recent dip. With volume stabilizing and a solid base built, a push back toward the $0.00000568 local high looks highly likely if Bitcoin remains stable.$AKE 📉🔥 AKE — BEARISH MOMENTUM | SHORT SETUP 🔻
AKE is showing bearish momentum near 0.00490. Sellers may remain in control if support breaks.
🎯 TRADE IDEA: SHORT AKE
📍 Entry Zone: 0.00486–0.00494
🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 0.00512
🎯 TP1: 0.00478
🎯 TP2: 0.00465
🎯 TP3: 0.00448
⚡ Confirmation: Breakdown below 0.00486 with strong selling pressure.
❌ Invalidation: Price reclaims 0.00512 and holds. A quick glance before getting off work.
$BTC: Grinding above 75,000
Current price 75,697.2, down 5.99% in 24h, low 75,200. At 2:30 PM it was 75,599.3, now 75,697.2, moved less than a hundred in two hours. Long-short ratio 3.00, 4 hours ago 2.94. Open interest 2.667 billion U. In the last 169 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: long 338,000 U, short 124,000 U.
$ETH: Decline narrowing, still the harshest
Current price 2,227.62, down 7.96% in 24h, low 2,206, narrowed from 8.24% at 2:30 PM, still the harshest among the three coins. Long-short ratio 3.39, 4 hours ago 3.39. Open interest 1.531 billion U. In the last 52 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: long 143,000 U, short 122,000 U.
$SOL: Decline expanding, most long positions bleeding
Current price 89.71, down 7.12% in 24h, low 88.29, decline expanded from 6.50% in the afternoon to 7.12%. Long-short ratio 3.85, 4 hours ago 3.82, the tightest among the three coins. Open interest 315 million U. In the last 459 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: long 785,000 U, short 611,000 U.
Commentary: BTC did not break 75,200, both longs and shorts took hits; ETH is the harshest, SOL longs are bleeding the most.
Summary: 75,000 is holding for now, will it hold before the 9:30 PM Nonfarm Payrolls tonight?
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% The $ETH 4-hour chart is still in a consolidation phase following a decline. After a large bearish candle near 2450, the price found brief support around the 2206 low, then rebounded and moved sideways in the 2220-2240 range.
The current price is 2226, still below MA5 (2238), MA10 (2313), MA20 (2311), and SuperTrend (2354). Resistance above is in the 2320-2330 area, with support below at 2216 and the previous low of 2206.
Current candlestick observation:
The sideways movement is a normal digestion process after the decline. Volume is currently weak, with no signs of a volume breakout or strong reversal. The price is entangled near the short-term moving averages, with bulls and bears temporarily balanced, but the overall bearish structure remains dominant.
Trading advice:
It is recommended to continue to wait and watch.
• Long positions: There is clear resistance from the moving averages above. If the sideways range breaks downward, it could quickly retest 2206 or even lower, making the risk-reward unfavorable.
• Short positions: Chasing shorts during sideways movement is prone to stop-loss hunting and lacks sufficient certainty.
More valuable directions to wait for:
• If the sideways range breaks down below 2210 with volume increase, consider light short positions.
• If the sideways range breaks up with volume above 2250-2260 and holds, then evaluate short-term long opportunities.
• Before a clear directional choice emerges, staying out of the market is the optimal choice. Seven days of roughly $1.12B in net outflows put ETF demand under real scrutiny, even with a small latest-session inflow. Glassnode's observation that activity stayed above August lows suggests engagement has not disappeared, but it does not establish durable demand.
BTC moving with the Nov 5 equity selloff leaves near-term risk appetite firmly in the frame.
#BTCETFOutflowsInFocus Seeing this news, I thought of an old saying in business: opening a storefront doesn't mean the neighborhood recognizes it. After retiring and learning about digital assets, I've gradually developed the habit of first seeing how far things have progressed before listening to how grand the vision is.
Vlad Tenev stated that stock tokens have launched on Robinhood Chain and are open to developers, with AI Agents able to interact directly. Robinhood wants to make it the preferred chain for RWA and Meme sectors, and popular tokens are already displayed in the wallet and main app.
I think this is significant, but the significance lies in the entry point, not in the word "preferred." Developers being able to build applications around stock tokens is more practical than just slogans; having their own app provide displays also adds another way to reach users. However, display doesn't equal usage, and interaction doesn't mean less risk. Young friends, don't rush to take the vision as achievement; I will continue to watch for truly useful applications.Anthropic originally planned to launch the largest IPO in history before Thanksgiving with a valuation of about 1.5 trillion dollars, aiming to raise up to 100 billion dollars. However, the recent plunge in AI-related tech stocks caused several major investors ready to participate to hit the brakes on the spot.
They generally believe that 1.5 trillion is too high, with some directly lowering expectations to around 1 trillion. Some have also suggested postponing the offering or cutting the fundraising size to about 80 billion dollars to avoid pushing too hard in front of institutions recently burned.
The reason is straightforward: the market has just undergone an AI narrative revaluation, and risk appetite has not yet returned. Although Anthropic's annualized revenue exceeded 80 billion dollars in October with impressive growth, its previous valuation has been cut down from nearly 2 trillion. Coupled with massive computing power commitments, ongoing losses (partly from accounting revaluation), and a structure where the founders maintain firm control through special voting rights, institutions are now more cautious.
Simply put, this is not a sudden collapse of the company's fundamentals, but a window closed by market sentiment. Whether the valuation needs to be lowered further or the roadshow postponed will become clearer in the next few days. #Anthropic #IPO #Anthropic加快IPO进程，AI估值进入验证期 $PUMP According to Lookonchain on November 6, the whale address FGjDGz sold 674.32 million PUMP about 7 hours ago, exchanging for approximately 2.59 million USDC, with a trading loss of about 409,000 USD. Based on the transaction amount, the average selling price was about $0.00384, estimating the original holding cost at around 3 million USD, with a loss margin of about 13.6%. 1. Why did the whale choose to exit at a loss? The noteworthy point of this transaction is not the 409,000 USD loss, but that the whale still chose to sell while at a loss. This usually means the investor may no longer be willing to bear further downside risk or needs to recover funds. 2. Are other whales also selling? In fact, PUMP has recently experienced multiple large-scale sell-offs. On October 15, Lookonchain monitored three addresses cumulatively selling 2.9 billion PUMP in a short time, cashing out about 12.58 million USD. On the same day, another whale sold 1.264 billion PUMP in a single transaction, incurring a slippage loss of about 300,000 USD due to the large trade. Of course, the market is not only selling pressure. On October 4, the whale netherlol repurchased about 383 million PUMP, worth about 2.4 million USD, and another new wallet withdrew about 189 million PUMP from MEXC. This indicates that PUMP's major holders are not uniformly bearish, but there have indeed been multiple concentrated sell-offs before, so supply pressure is worth watching. 3. Pump.fun fundamentals outLast night, the US stock market took another sharp dive. Why does the script feel a bit like 2022?
Back then, after the midterm elections, the S&P dropped more than 2% on November 9.
But on November 10, when the CPI was released, the S&P surged 5.54% that day, and the Nasdaq jumped 7.35%.
This year, there was also a big drop after the midterm elections.
Today is November 6, the non-farm payrolls release; next week on November 10, the CPI.
Two elections, the same November, the same big drop, followed by important economic data.
Is history about to repeat itself?Democratic Party's big win in the midterm elections
Is the impact really that strong?
Bitcoin dropped from 81,000 to 75,000 in 4 hours
The market worries about tighter AI regulations
Data center construction is restricted.
Elon Musk's net worth shrank by $91.2 billion in one day,
The top five tech billionaires lost a combined $152.9 billion.
The panic index VIX surged 69.66% in one day. #US stocks suffered a massive sell-off: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded its largest single-day drop since March 2020 #US stocks suffer heavy sell-off: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hits largest single-day drop since March 2020 On November 5th, US stocks experienced a major crash, with the S&P down 4.36% and the Nasdaq down 5.52%. The hardest hit were the semiconductor and AI sectors. Those AI tech stocks that were previously hyped suddenly lost their appeal. Why? Because after the US midterm elections, the Democrats took control of Congress, and the market started fearing two things: first, that regulation on AI data centers will definitely become stricter; second, everyone suddenly realized whether these tech giants, who have spent hundreds of billions of dollars on AI infrastructure, can actually recoup their investments? My personal view is: this is a typical "crowded trade" triggered chain stampede. Has the fundamental situation worsened with this plunge? Actually, no. The high interest rate environment combined with redemption pressure forced those highly leveraged AI funds to quickly liquidate to survive. The current cross-market allocation is basically all betting on the same "AI infrastructure" assumption. Once this assumption wavers even slightly, all funds rush for the exit. The door is only so big, so a stampede happens. When institutions deleverage and machines start selling off, even the best can't hold up. What’s the impact? In the short term, it’s definitely a nuclear-level bearish event. Bitcoin is now being dragged down directly, and DePIN tokens and computing power altcoins riding the AI concept are even harder hit. Once liquidity tightens on the US stock side and the deleveraging stampede spreads, the crypto market’s highly leveraged contracts will also be swept away. Trying to bottom-fish now is very likely to catch a falling knife. #韩股KOSPI暴跌触发熔断，半导体集体重挫 Fee Semi plummeted 11.2%, high valuation risk assets were sold off simultaneously
Bottom-fishing funds temporarily paused entry, sell-offs concentrated in the tech sector, Nasdaq fell 5.3%, S&P 500 dropped 3.5%, QQQ closed down 4.44%, marking the strongest sell-off in the US stock market since April 2025.
Crypto markets weakened in tandem, this is just a correlated movement, not equivalent to cross-market capital rotation. This round of Fee Semi's decline matches the extreme market conditions of March 2020.
AAOI's Q3 earnings forecast is unlikely to hedge against the current risk-off wave, the correlation will break when risk appetite recovers.
If the current low holds, the correlated market will temporarily ease; if the low is broken, the sell-off will spread further.
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$BTC $ETH $SOL Gold once again followed my early session analysis, smoothly breaking below the 38.2 Fibonacci level (4060), reaching near the 50 Fibonacci level (4033), and finally, as I said, stabilizing and rising to around 4070. Congratulations to the friends who followed the reference for making a profit!#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
I think it's a bit risky now to still use the past four-year cycle to predict when BTC will peak or bottom out.
In the past, studying the BTC cycle, the halving was indeed a very important reference. The 2017 and 2021 bull markets had similar rhythms, followed by a deep retracement of over 70%.
But the problem is, the market participants have changed.
Previously, it was mainly retail investors, miners, and crypto-native funds playing; now there are spot ETFs, institutional funds, and macro interest rates and dollar liquidity have a more direct impact on BTC.
This means that the supply changes brought by halving still exist, but they may no longer dominate the entire market as before.
ETH is even more complicated. With L2 offloading, staking, changes in token economic models, plus competition from other public chains, today's ETH and 2021's ETH are no longer the same market structure.
So if I have to choose between time progress and retracement depth, I pay more attention to retracement depth, but I don't just look at how much it has fallen.
For example, if BTC falls 30% from its high, if leverage has clearly been cleared and long-term funds are still continuously absorbing, that's completely different from funds continuously flowing out and it just temporarily falling 30%.
I think what is truly worth being cautious about is not that the cycle model suddenly fails, but that it is slowly failing while we are still using the old timetable waiting for a definite bottom. I saw this message and first thought of the worst-case scenario: if tax incentive expectations are taken as a signal for immediate capital inflow, positions might be enlarged before the rules are finalized, and the drawdown would have to be borne personally. Having done risk control for a long time, I care more about how much can be lost if expectations are not met.
Hong Kong's Deputy Director of the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau, Chan Ho-lam, stated that the scope of tax incentives for funds and single-family offices will be expanded, with digital assets, precious metals, and others proposed to be included as eligible investments; after the relevant amendment bill is passed, the measures can be implemented starting from the 2025/26 tax year. I judge this as a positive signal at the institutional level, not proof of short-term capital inflows.
⚠️ I am watching three risks: the bill is pending approval, and implementation still has conditions; the scope of eligibility determines who truly benefits and cannot be directly applied to all assets; a reduction in tax burden does not mean institutions will immediately allocate, as sentiment may run ahead of capital.
Ordinary people might as well first write down the maximum account loss they can bear per trade before looking at the news. When facing such policy expectations, how much stop loss do you generally set for a single trade?Here are 8 revised versions for you:
*Version 1 - Original Optimized*
> Previous low support broken, limited upside for recovery rally
>
> The earlier rebound around 990 after bottoming out was just a brief correction following an oversell. This support level has now been breached, and the market has entered a new round of decline, hitting a low near 794. Currently, it is only a slight rebound at a low level.
>
> The HBM sector remains hot, but expectations for flash memory price increases have weakened. Supply pressure from large manufacturers' capacity expansions persists. U.S. Treasury yields continue to cause disturbances, making it difficult for market risk appetite to rise. This rebound has seen no volume increase and no new capital entering to support it.
>
> Previous support has turned into resistance. A low-level rebound does not indicate a trend reversal. The bearish supply-side logic remains intact. Short-term outlook.
*Version 2 - Minimalist*
> Previous low support broken, limited upside for recovery rally. The earlier rebound around 990 after bottoming out was just a brief correction following an oversell. This support level has now been breached. The market has entered a new round of decline, hitting a low near 794. Currently, it is only a slight rebound at a low level. The HBM sector remains hot, but expectations for flash memory price increases have weakened. Supply pressure from large manufacturers' capacity expansions persists. U.S. Treasury yields continue to cause disturbances, making it difficult for market risk appetite to rise. This rebound has seen no volume increase and no new capital entering to support it. Previous support has turned into resistance. A low-level rebound does not indicate a trend reversal. The bearish supply-side logic remains intact. Short-term outlook.
*Version 3 - Trader's Version*
> Previous low support broken, limited upside for recovery rally
> The earlier rebound around 990 after bottoming out was just a brief correction following an oversell. This sup"BTC, ETH, SOL: The rebound is here, is the altcoin season still far off?"
Recently, with the market rebounding, the group chat has started shouting about a quick bull return. But after experiencing continuous pullbacks, I’m now more concerned about one question: Is capital flowing back into the entire crypto space, or is it concentrated only in a few leading coins?
First, let’s look at BTC. Bitcoin’s core value remains its scarce supply and decentralized settlement. In the short term, observe spot buying, ETF net flows, and breakthroughs of previous highs. If the price rises without matching volume, be wary of another drop after short sellers cover their positions. Macro interest rates and a stronger dollar could also suppress the rebound.
Next, ETH. On November 3, the Ethereum Foundation released a research article on digital public infrastructure, emphasizing the potential use of open networks in public services. This is a research direction, not new institutional orders. Going forward, watch stablecoin settlements, on-chain fees, and upgrade testing progress. The risk is that application growth may not directly translate into ETH demand.
Finally, SOL. On November 5, Solana officially confirmed that eligible U.S. Galaxy users can now use USDC on the Solana chain through Samsung Wallet. The payment entry has indeed expanded, but this doesn’t mean users will immediately migrate en masse. Key indicators to watch are active payment addresses, real transfers, and fees, while being cautious of fading hype.
My judgment is: BTC determines market direction, ETH validates long-term applications, and SOL competes for new users. A true altcoin season requires sustained capital diffusion beyond these three.
Who do you think will lead the next rally?The decline in US tech stocks has transmitted to the crypto market, with a clear contraction in risk appetite.After reading, I noted three things:
1. I focused on the sale of 1 million $UNI within two days, which directly impacts short-term supply, but I won't take it as evidence of the protocol's fundamentals worsening. According to Lookonchain monitoring, this address received tokens from the Uniswap UNI Timelock wallet a year ago.
2. The wallet source helps track token holdings but doesn't directly explain the selling motive, nor can it be used to conclude that the team is bearish; I think this news affects short-term sentiment more than it explains the protocol's value. Mixing these up can easily scare yourself.
3. If this address continues selling, I will pay more attention to whether the selling persists and whether the market can absorb it. This is my observation approach, not a concluded outcome. A note to myself: track fund behavior, don't assign psychological motives to whales.The Nasdaq's sharp drop this time essentially treated crypto as high-beta tech stocks and liquidated them together.
Funds first withdrew from AI-related tech stocks; as risk budgets tightened, crypto was conveniently sold off. BTC was hammered from around 80,000 down to the 75,000 level, ETH fell even harder, directly approaching 2200. On the surface, it looks like a follow-down, but in reality, leveraged long positions were concentratedly liquidated, with over $1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, almost all longs.
This time is different from a simple news-driven drop. It’s compounded by hedge funds deleveraging, representing passive selling pressure. Prices collapsed first, narratives followed. Crypto has no fundamental negative news of its own, but when liquidity is drained, it is often more fragile than tech stocks.
In the short term, whether BTC can hold around 74,800 will determine if sentiment continues to worsen. Holding that level offers a chance to rebound; breaking below opens more downside. The market is still digesting Wall Street’s position clearing, and crypto is just being swept along.
Once the Nasdaq stops falling and the VIX retreats, crypto will truly have a chance to catch its breath. #USStocksSufferHeavySelloff: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index posts largest single-day drop since March 2020 $BTC #Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ Oklo aims to launch the first Aurora sodium-cooled fast reactor power project between the end of 2027 and 2028. The test reactor has achieved criticality, DOE site permits and fuel support are underway, and orders are tied to data centers, aligning the narrative with zero-carbon computing power demand. However, the biggest bottleneck lies in the NRC's official commercial license. Sodium-cooled reactors inherently have leakage safety risks, HALEU fuel costs are relatively high, and financing consumes significant resources. $SNDK What's going on?
After breaking below the strong support at 970 from the end of July, it just kept falling nonstop,
last night it dropped sharply to a low of 793 before briefly stopping the decline.
SanDisk went from 1908 -> 793, Micron $MU from 1100 -> 650, SK Hynix $SKHYNIX from 1400 -> 809,
this round saw the three storage giants collectively halved, nearly a 50% cyclical sell-off, leaving the stubborn bulls who held onto hope barely alive.
Many big funds on the profit leaderboard have been continuously long on SanDisk, going from tens of thousands of dollars in profit to tens of thousands in losses, giving back all their previous gains, it's truly brutal!
The long-short ratio has dropped from a high of 9.73 to 5.5, the majority of bulls have surrendered, only a few stubborn ones remain.
It's always long, always tears!
Uncertainty from new AI policies and tech funds rushing to exit caused this big drop in US stocks.
From the US stock pricing framework, SanDisk at over 800 has already reached the institutional pessimistic valuation range.
But a fair valuation doesn't mean the market will immediately stop falling; non-farm payroll data is still to be released tonight.
No matter how fierce the bears are, there will always be a moment of exhaustion.
At this point, should you bottom-fish directly or wait for a right-side stabilization confirmation signal?
Referencing the big rebound in early August, when the bulls counterattack, the rebound can be very strong,
so what would you choose?[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Brothers and sisters, the palace intrigue drama has started again in Washington! The old and new US Congress are undergoing a handover, and Pharaoh shakes his head while holding coffee: these people are very likely to exploit the US-Iran situation to grab power.
This causal chain is very exciting: old and new Congress handover ➡️ power vacuum period, for votes and party struggles, the new Congress might cut off war funding, or the old Congress might apply extreme pressure before leaving ➡️ Middle East situation expected to be extremely volatile ➡️ oil prices jump up and down ➡️ if the situation eases, oil prices continue to fall, inflation drops, and Pharaoh is delighted (good for risk assets); if the situation gets out of control, oil prices soar, and Pharaoh can only grit his teeth and continue hawkish policies, with BTC getting drained along with US stocks.
Now look at your situation: US stocks were just bloodied last night, and tonight there's the "nuclear bomb" of the non-farm payrolls, macro uncertainty is everywhere.
If BTC pulls back to the 75000/74000 range, I think it's a very good bottom-fishing zone, nephew 500, close friend 1000/2000 points, very exciting! $BTC $ETH $SNDK #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 #Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ Oklo aims to launch its first Aurora sodium-cooled fast reactor power project between the end of 2027 and 2028. The test reactor has already achieved criticality, DOE site permits have been obtained, and fuel support is progressing. Orders are tied to data centers, aligning the narrative with zero-carbon computing power demand. However, the biggest bottleneck lies in the NRC's official commercial license. Sodium-cooled reactors inherently have leakage safety risks, HALEU fuel costs are relatively high, and financing consumes significant resources. Optimistically, a demonstration unit could be operational by 2028; large-scale commercialization will likely be delayed until after 2030. Successful demonstration does not equate to low-cost scalable replication; regulation and economics remain the two major variables.🔥Bitcoin's pennant pattern has broken below 76,000 again, testing the critical support level at 75,000
Bitcoin $BTC is currently around 75,700
Yesterday's news mainly triggered by the Democratic Party preparing to restrict AI data center construction caused a sharp drop in storage sector US stocks like MU, SNDK, dragging down the overall US market and pushing the crypto market to crash accordingly
Currently, Bitcoin is showing a downward pennant pattern again, returning to the lower boundary of the continuation flag structure
The 78,600-78,800 range should be considered an important bullish defense line; if broken, the bullish trend will reverse again. So partners who see this should exit in time, minimizing bullish losses. If it breaks below 78,600, going short with the trend will also be very profitable
The 75,000 level is the nearest support now; if it breaks again, we should look at the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level below, near the green trendline, roughly in the 72,100-72,600 range
Therefore, in terms of operation: the bullish defense is to exit if it breaks below 75,000, for example, setting a stop loss exit at 74,700 (to prevent fakeouts). If it breaks effectively, I will choose to short with the trend on the right side down to the 72,100-72,600 range and then reassessAs of the end of September, the physical gold backing XAUT was about 827,400 troy ounces, equivalent to 25.7 tons. At the end of last year, it was about 16.2 tons, an increase of 59%. This increase refers to the physical quantity of gold, with the starting point of the statistics being the end of last year. Each XAUT still corresponds to one troy ounce of gold.
This makes me think of a question that is easy to skip before buying: when can the gold on the screen be exchanged for money at the price you expect? The physical reserves answer how much gold is behind it, and the trading depth determines how much you can sell at. When the market is stable, these two things seem very close. When there is a sharp drop, large sales, or fewer trading channels, the quoted price and the actual transaction price may diverge. If you want to redeem the physical gold directly, you also need to look at the issuer's conditions.
I am quite happy to see gold circulate on-chain in smaller fractions. It makes some transfers that were originally very troublesome more convenient, but "convenient transfer" and "convenient cash-out" each have their own conditions. Seeing the reserve growth, I would first look at the disclosure criteria, then look at the usual price spreads and exit channels. When you really need to sell urgently, the string of gold ounces in your account ultimately has to be calculated at the price that can be transacted.
#Tether旗下XAUT黄金储备增长59% Both Bitcoin and ETH have dropped, but the logic is not exactly the same: one looks at the macro situation, while the other also considers ETF outflows.Cryptocurrency Market Plummets: Bitcoin Falls Below $76,000, Over $1.2 Billion Liquidated in 24 Hours
Amid a sharp decline in the US stock market, the cryptocurrency market also dropped, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $76,000.
On November 6, Bitcoin continued its downward trend from the previous trading day. OKX data showed that Bitcoin (BTC) once dropped to around $75,200, after rebounding above $80,000 the day before; Ethereum (ETH) fell to around $2,206, with a 24-hour decline exceeding 7%, and major cryptocurrencies like SOL also generally declined.
The significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market triggered concentrated liquidations. According to cryptocurrency data platform CoinGlass, in the past 24 hours, a total of 238,600 people were liquidated globally, with total liquidations amounting to approximately $1.254 billion, including $1.11 billion in long liquidations and $140 million in short liquidations.
This cryptocurrency market decline coincided with a sell-off in US tech stocks. On November 5 local time, the three major US stock indices collectively plunged: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.44%, the S&P 500 dropped 4.36%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 5.52%.
The Democratic Party's significant victory in the US midterm elections sparked market concerns about potential increased AI regulation and restrictions on data center construction in the US. Coupled with prior investor doubts about massive capital expenditures and investment return prospects in the AI sector, leveraged long positions were liquidated en masse, further intensifying market volatility.
$BTC $ETH $PUMP
$PUMP
The trend of Meme coin trading platforms shifting to perpetual contract business is accelerating.
On Thursday, the daily active traders of perpetual contracts on FOMO and Pump.fun both saw significant growth. Among them, FOMO's daily active traders for perpetual contracts approached 4,000, with a single-day trading volume of $334 million; Pump.fun's daily active traders for perpetual contracts approached 1,200, reaching a record high, with a single-day trading volume of $25.3 million.$SNDK $MU
Retail investors really buy more as prices fall
I'm increasingly understanding why most people lose money
The more it falls, the more they bottom-fish; the more it falls, the more they hold their positions. In a one-sided downtrend, those going long outnumber shorts by several times. If the market doesn't harvest you, who else will it harvest? If Bitcoin continues to drop with increased volume, liquidity below 75,000 may be further tested.Hold off on rushing the pace for now. I'm more worried that the rebound might give a false impression.
CryptoQuant analyst Adler noted that the Nasdaq 100 dropped 6.36%, and the VIX rose from 16.6 to 28.2. I judge the short-term outlook as bearish: if the stock market continues to sell off and funds reduce positions to control risk, $BTC could also be passively pressured.
I'll first watch if the US stock market can stop falling, then wait for crypto to pull back for confirmation; if after entering the market the correlation weakens, I'll exit as planned. In this kind of cross-market shock, would you wait for volatility to subside or act on a sharp dip rebound?$xSPCX rocket plummeted 9% in a single day! Musk concept stocks suffered a heavy blow, shorts charging forward!!!
From the news perspective, the US midterm election results have intensified market concerns about rocket politics and regulatory risks. With the Democrats controlling Congress, the market fears that AI data center expansion approvals will be hindered. Meanwhile, the rocket's approximately $40 billion AI equipment financing plan has also sparked discussions about funding pressure. From a technical perspective, the rocket's latest close was $123.62, down 9.05% in one day, with a trading volume of about 172 million shares, significantly amplified. Around 120 is an important short-term support, while 131–136 forms the upper rebound resistance. If the rebound cannot firmly hold above 131, weakness may continue; if it effectively breaks below 120, it will further decline. The stock lacks on-chain capital data, so focus is on trading volume and institutional movements. Volume-driven decline indicates obvious selling pressure. Let's also look at macro factors. The Nasdaq and semiconductor sectors fell sharply together, as the market is shrinking risk exposure to AI overvalued assets. Interest rates, data center policies, and financing costs may continue to affect SPCX valuation!
Short selling plan:
Rebound short: If resistance is met in the 131–136 range and weakening signals appear, consider gradually building short positions.
Stop loss: Above 140
Targets: 123, 120
Breakdown short: If it effectively breaks below 120 and the rebound fails to recover, consider following the trend to short.
Targets: 115, 110
$BTC #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $LAB Looking at this chart, I really took a sharp breath! It surged straight up from 0.04043 with a deep V-shape, violently rising over 11%, instantly breaking through the resistance of the moving averages above. Seeing this bright red surge is indeed exciting, but looking at the data below, I immediately sobered up.
The long position ratio has actually soared to a terrifying 82%+, with a long-short ratio as high as 4.66! This indicates that retail investors are all crazily FOMO chasing the highs, while the tiny remaining short positions have long been wiped out by this surge without a trace left. The current market is extremely crowded with longs, and short fuel is nearly exhausted. Although the short-term moving averages have formed a golden cross and momentum is off the charts, this is very likely a high-level bull trap set by the main players to attract trend followers.
Chasing longs at this position has a shockingly low margin of safety and a terrible risk-reward ratio; it’s basically taking the bag to die. I absolutely won’t join this hype and will patiently wait for this wave of sentiment to subside. As long as there is volume expansion with stagnation at the high level, the opportunity to short on the right side with the trend will come.
When others are fearful, I am greedy; when others are greedy, I am fearful. A whale sold 1 million $UNI in the past two days (worth $7.32 million).
This whale received 20.32 million $UNI from the Uniswap UNI Timelock wallet a year ago (worth $139.4 million).
Address: 0xFfBeaE414F6f3146E52f18d17ff7894086BE1Ca3
Address: 0xAdCBF72CFd3667d858202a66ba29Ada9C2CdeC86
Address: 0x5069A64BC6616dEC1584eE0500B7813A9B680F7EETH dropped to around 2200, and on-chain activity is also not lively, with insufficient short-term catalysts.How to determine if the market environment has changed? Which signals are worth paying attention to, and which are just short-term noise?
In the previous article, we discussed a question: why might a once effective trading strategy gradually lose its edge?
One important reason is that the market environment has changed.
But the real difficulty lies in this: the market fluctuates every day, so how do we know if this is normal volatility or if the market condition has truly shifted?
If the reaction is too slow, one might continue using strategies that no longer fit the current market.
If the reaction is too quick, one might prematurely change the original trading plan due to a few abnormal candlesticks, a sudden surge in volume, or a brief price breakout.
Therefore, judging the market environment should not rely solely on price movements but should comprehensively observe price structure, trading volume, volatility, market depth, and capital behavior.11.6 Nonfarm Payroll Data and Gold Market Analysis
I. Fundamental Logic
Gold prices were clearly suppressed by high interest rates in September and October. The recent rebound in gold is not driven by risk-off sentiment but is the result of the combined effects of a weaker dollar, declining U.S. Treasury yields, and falling oil prices. Meanwhile, the nonfarm payroll data is a key watershed determining the subsequent gold trend.
II. Personal Forecast
October's new nonfarm payrolls are expected to be in the range of 60,000 to 75,000, with the unemployment rate likely to remain at 4.2%, and month-on-month wage growth between 0.2% and 0.3%, showing an overall pattern of "moderate expansion plus wage growth." This will slightly reduce the probability of a rate hike in December but will not completely eliminate the possibility.
III. Notes
1. Do not overly rely on a single nonfarm payroll data point; subsequent market direction should also consider inflation data such as CPI and PCE.
2. The gold market has liquidity sell-off traps; even if the data is positive, prices will not immediately rise.
3. Gold will fluctuate in the short term between 4120 and 4150; attention should be paid to breakthroughs at key levels such as 4170 and 4230.
The above content is only a discussion of macro logic and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $XAU $BTC Last night the crypto market crashed so hard, many people only saw the AI regulation panic including Lu Jie. After looking up some information, Lu Jie found a factor that is easily overlooked.
That is, the day after the Democrats took control of Congress, a company affiliated with Trump transferred $343 million worth of BTC (30% of its total holdings) to an exchange. These coins were originally used for transferable collateral. The company also has $1 billion of debt maturing at the end of November. The market's understanding is that the coins are being sold to repay debt. Coupled with policy risk expectations, the panic intensified, driving the market down sharply. Tonight, the main focus is still on the non-farm payroll data. If it meets expectations, there will be a rebound.$UNI According to Lookonchain on November 6, a whale holding a large amount of UNI transferred about 1 million UNI to Binance in the past two days, valued at approximately $7.32 million. It is worth noting that this address received 20.32 million UNI from Uniswap's UNI Timelock wallet more than a year ago, which was worth about $139.4 million at that time. This means the initial token amount obtained by this address was extremely large, and the 1 million transferred this time only accounts for about 4.9% of the original amount, which is not a large proportion. 1. Who is this whale? This fund was not bought on the open market but came from the Uniswap Timelock wallet. The Timelock can be understood as a time-locked wallet for project governance funds, usually used to manage tokens arranged through governance. This implies that the address may be related to early project fund allocation or ecosystem fund arrangements. However, the specific identity cannot be determined solely based on this transfer, nor can it be directly concluded that it represents an official Uniswap sell-off. More importantly, the original holding was as high as 20.32 million UNI, so if this whale continues to take action later, the selling pressure will be very significant. 2. Are other whales buying or selling? From the overall data, there is currently no obvious sign of collective whale flight from UNI. According to Deep Blue Alpha data as of November 6, in the past 7 days, tracked whales transferred about $22.4 million to exchanges.Trading news-driven markets really feels like battling through levels and monsters 😂
Previously fell into a big trap: didn’t understand conditional orders, stop loss triggered and suddenly an extra position appeared out of nowhere, totally confusing me.
Gradually figured out the trick: the "reduce only" option is a lifesaving little switch.
Reminder to everyone: during big events like Nonfarm Payrolls, sudden spikes happen, and stop losses get triggered on both sides as a regular occurrence.
When placing protective orders, prioritize using the built-in take profit and stop loss of your positions, which have their own closing logic and won’t secretly open reverse positions for surprise attacks.
Markets change in the blink of an eye, and slippage can appear anytime.
Watching the market for fun is fine, but never get carried away with your positions; preserving your principal is the biggest win.
Markets carry risks, trade rationally. Don't think the congressional transition is a peaceful handover; in essence, it's a year-long power vacuum period, and the massacre is just beginning. The old Congress is still in power, and the new Congress won't take over until 2027. During this time, it's a lawless period for policies. Trump could launch a sudden strike in the Middle East at any time, while the Democrats scrutinize the accounts with a magnifying glass. This expectation of division turns the market into a meat grinder.
Look at $BTC, the big coin; the slight dip now is just playing dead. With a macro vacuum, all ETFs are on hold, and no long-term fresh capital is entering. The overhead trapped positions are very heavy. If the non-farm payrolls drop tonight, it will definitely spike crazily above seventy thousand. Holding long-term is fine, but chasing highs in the short term is pure suicide. Shorting in the short term must have a tight stop loss; shorting is shorting—don't hold on to death. Not setting a stop loss is just giving away money.
Look at $ETH, Ethereum, it's even worse. With the Democrats controlling both chambers, the Trump-related crypto dividends are lost or even under investigation, and regulatory Damocles' sword hangs overhead. Ethereum has no new narrative, and a regulatory crackdown will cause the fastest drop. Smaller altcoins without support are being sold off heavily; don't try to catch a falling knife.
Look at $XAUT, gold and crude oil, the focus of geopolitical games. Whether there will be conflict in the Middle East depends on politicians' moods, and crude oil won't fall easily. Gold is the real bottom line; no matter how Washington fights internally, safe-haven buying firmly supports it, showing resilience far beyond the crypto world.
Going forward, the macro environment will be a double squeeze of bickering and stubbornness. Control your hands, endure this turmoil, survive, and then pick up chips again. #The transition between the old and new US Congress may affect the US-Iran situation Tonight at 21:30, the non-farm payrolls report is a key short-term catalyst.
The October non-farm payrolls are expected at 65,000, previous value 29,000, with an unemployment rate forecast of 4.2%. The data directly impacts the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations.
If non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, rate cut expectations cool down, the dollar and US Treasury yields rise, putting pressure on BTC and ETH, aligning with the current bearish logic.
If the data meets expectations, there will be a brief recovery but it’s unlikely to change the weak trend.
If non-farm payrolls weaken significantly, it will temporarily trigger a rebound in rate cut expectations, but weak employment will raise recession concerns, limiting the rebound space.
Additionally, with the Democrats controlling both chambers, AI and crypto regulation expectations are tightening, so selling pressure remains above.
The market is likely to experience wide fluctuations and is unlikely to see a one-sided rebound. Focus on non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly wages, and the linkage between US Treasuries and the dollar. Wait for the data to be released before taking action; do not bet in advance.
$BTC $ETH
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ #IREN加速转型AI云，业务收入环比增长182% $LINK
Macroeconomic volatility can increase the value of oracles, but does it raise the valuation of LINK?
There is a clear event risk tonight with the employment report. When prices fluctuate sharply, reliable data becomes more important; however, there are still different transmission links between service necessity, actual payment, and token demand.
I focus on sustained calls and payment scale. If usage increases but does not strengthen token demand, valuation cannot be mechanically raised; if real revenue and economic rights improve simultaneously, the judgment is more justified.The rollercoaster market just ended, and tonight's non-farm payrolls are about to "stir things up" again?
The market these past two days probably shook many traders dizzy. First came the sudden, unanticipated sharp plunge, followed by a vengeful deep V-shaped rebound. BTC and US tech stocks played out an extreme "rollercoaster". Amid the double-sided liquidation, the sounds of forced liquidations kept rising.
This extreme "big ups and downs" essentially reflect a market sentiment that is highly unstable, with funds undergoing a frantic shakeout. Tonight at 21:30, the US October non-farm payroll data (expected employment increase of 65,000, unemployment rate 4.2%) will be released with heavy impact.
With the data combined with recent intense volatility, tonight's market will definitely be "hellishly difficult." If expectations deviate, it can easily trigger even more extreme spikes. In such a market, never bet on a one-sided surge or plunge at the instant of data release. $BTC $ETH $530 million gone in a flash, the ETF door closes faster than anyone else.
The combined net outflow of the US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on Thursday was about $530 million. Bitcoin fell below $76,000, US stocks declined simultaneously, and the post-election gains were basically wiped out. Source: Cointelegraph.
Bearish judgment: This is a direct signal of institutional funds withdrawing from the ETF channel, not just retail sentiment fluctuations. ETFs have been the main entry point for incremental funds over the past year. Continuous net outflows mean marginal buying disappears, and prices are more easily dominated by selling pressure; Bitcoin falling below $76,000 while dragging down US stocks is a macro-level risk aversion, not unique to the crypto space.
Observation points: In the short term, focus on whether ETF funds can stop the bleeding and whether there is support below $76,000; if outflows continue, high-beta assets like ETH usually fall more sharply. Involving $BTC, $ETH, the overall tone is bearish.
Are you more concerned about ETF funds stopping the bleeding or support below $76,000? According to the data from Lianshang, Big Brother Maji has just been liquidated again. In the past 4 days, he sold off 15 NFTs at a loss, barely raising about $223,000, which is roughly $505,000 less than his purchase cost. He put this money into the contract, but it was quickly wiped out again.
Now, he has accumulated losses of about $37.4 million on one contract position, and another position has lost about $909,000. His positions are basically still high-leverage long ETH trades. On one hand, he is selling Bored Apes at a loss to top up margin, and on the other hand, he keeps opening long positions, repeating the same drama over and over.
There are quite a few people like this in the crypto world—when they make money, it’s like they’re cheating; when they lose, it’s the same. Watching them makes your palms sweat.
For beginners, it’s recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC Retracement levels are not support levels; they are just the places where the price previously paused.
$BTC dropped from 107,736 to 57,761, and this move was sliced into several segments.
The 61.8% retracement level falls at 76,852.
How this number is calculated:
The difference between the high and low is 49,975, multiplied by 0.618 equals 30,884.
Subtracting this from the high gives 76,852.
The moment it was triggered:
On November 4th, the price reached this level, volume increased, and then it rebounded.
Currently at 80,693, it has moved back above this line.
Common misinterpretations:
The 50% level is at 82,749, about 2.5% away from being reached.
Below that, the 78.6% level is at 68,456, which is the next lower tier.
Retracement levels only indicate where the price has paused; they do not indicate that buyers stepped in at those levels.
A rebound accompanied by volume increase is what truly shows that real money has accepted that price.
#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 $BTC $SOL — SHORT
entry: 89.61
tp1: 87.20
tp2: 84.50
stop: 93.20
$SOL has struggled to recover after its latest decline. The repeated inability to reclaim 90 keeps the downside scenario relevant.