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Previously, some investors had discussed Anthropic's valuation dropping from about $2 trillion to around $1.5 trillion. Now even that figure is considered expensive by some. On November 5, potential investors questioned whether the company could start its roadshow as originally planned next week and meet the November IPO timeline. Pricing and the schedule have become part of the negotiations.
This time when reviewing the prospectus, what I care most about is voting rights. According to the disclosed design, each Class F share held by the founders' holding entity will have 50.1% of the voting power on matters submitted to general shareholders for voting, with some board seats arranged separately. For public market investors, this means they can share in the company's growth, but when it comes to disagreements over computing power investment, financing, or strategy, their influence is limited.
Some are willing to pay for the founders' long-term judgment, which is reasonable. But if they also have to accept a high valuation and very little say, I can understand why subscribers want to negotiate harder on price. Especially with tech stocks plunging and buyers having a bunch of already-declined listed companies to choose from. What matters now is whether the roadshow can start as planned and at what price investors are willing to accept this rights arrangement.
#Anthropic潜在IPO投资者建议估值降至1.5万亿美元 Macro Background: This is not a "rate cut trade," but "stagflation + renewed rate hikes". The market used to follow a script: poor data → rising rate cut expectations → risk assets rally. This script has failed this year. CPI year-on-year 4.0% (September, previous 3.7%) rose for two consecutive periods, at the 77th percentile in nearly 10 years. CPI month-on-month +0.6%, annualized over 7%. Energy sub-index year-on-year +20.4%. Iran war, imported inflation. Core CPI year-on-year 2.8%, core is acceptable, the problem lies in energy. PPI year-on-year 6.3%, upstream pressure is huge and will transmit downstream. PCE year-on-year 3.6%, far from the 2% target. Federal funds rate 3.75%–4.00% has resumed the rate hike path. 10-year US Treasury yield 4.90%, the long end does not support rate cuts. September nonfarm payrolls +29,000, employment clearly weakening. Inflation at 4% and rising, employment only +29,000, yet the Federal Reserve is raising rates. This is textbook "stagflation." Stagflation is the least friendly period for risk assets: high inflation, central banks dare not ease, but instead must raise rates; weak employment, corporate profits decline. Neither side is favorable, so there is no room for "policy market rescue." This explains the Nasdaq's plunge of 5.52% on November 5 (the largest single-day drop in 19 months), and BTC dropping from 81,196 to 75,208—the real reason is the change in macro pricing logic, not an issue within the crypto circle itself. Adding to this week's black swan: Binance was hacked for $6.3 billion (the largest financial theft in history, North Korean hackers, the Federal Reserve and OCC have already interviewed USThe Korean stock market opening today really shocked me😥
KOSPI early session plunged over 8% at one point, triggering a circuit breaker, and the entire market was halted for 20 minutes
Samsung Electronics and SK海力士 $SKHYNIX both saw double-digit intraday declines, and although the index later recovered somewhat, the panic sentiment was already very obvious
The rise of the Korean stock market this year has largely benefited from AI and the semiconductor industry chain
The problem is that Samsung and SK海力士 have too much weight; once the market starts concentrated selling in the memory sector, the index simply can't hold up;
Adding to that, overseas capital withdrawal has caused the originally crowded AI trades to experience a clear stampede
This plunge also reveals a problem: no matter how strong the industry fundamentals are, they can't withstand liquidity shocks under concentrated holdings
For now, I regard today's rebound as a recovery after panic
Going forward, the focus is on whether foreign capital selling can narrow, and whether SK海力士 can stabilize first! $SNDK $MU #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 最脆弱的一环从来不是BTC，而是那些把叙事绑在一个人身上的币。 当政治光环开始褪色，你手里的故事还剩下什么？ 这两天看TRUMP的走势，心里有点发凉。它跌到1.215美元，创下历史新低，对比曾经70美元以上的高点，回撤已经超过98%。更扎心的是，BTC已经在慢慢修复，它却还在往下探。这种背离比单看跌幅更值得警惕。 我自己的理解是，市场这轮重新定价的不是一个币，而是一整套"政治影响力可以无限变现"的预期。TRUMP从诞生起，故事线几乎全押在特朗普个人的权势、关注度和政治想象上。中期选举共和党失利、民主党拿下两院之后，未来政策推进受阻，家族加密相关活动还可能面临调查，这条叙事的支点被抽掉了。 偏多的逻辑也不是完全没有：如果后续政策出现缓和，或者特朗普本人重新制造强话题，情绪可能短线回温。但问题在于，这类反弹更依赖注意力而非基本面，持续性通常有限。而且98%的跌幅本身就在说明，共识瓦解之后，价格下坠的速度往往比想象中更快。 我还在意一个二层传导：当这类政治meme失去吸引力，部分风险偏好会回流到BTC和ETH，但更多短线资金可能直接选择观望。山寨的情绪会变得更挑剔，叙事疲劳感加重，FOMO退Last night's decline in the US stock market can no longer be lightly dismissed as a "normal tech stock correction." The Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 5.52%, the S&P 500 fell 4.36%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 3.44%. The significant rebound following the previous day's election results was almost entirely wiped out overnight. What is more concerning is that the Nasdaq has entered a technical correction zone, indicating that this sell-off is not just localized profit-taking but a reassessment of the pricing of the entire risk asset spectrum. The heaviest selling pressure remains in the most crowded AI trades of the past two years. Nvidia fell nearly 9%, Tesla dropped about 10.7%, and companies related to AI chips, data centers, and cloud computing generally came under pressure. The market fears that the new political landscape will strengthen regulations on AI infrastructure, data center construction, and energy consumption. Coupled with some chip companies' earnings and guidance falling short of expectations, the valuation logic originally based on "AI investment will continue to expand rapidly" is beginning to loosen. The real danger of this decline is not the negative news from any single company, but that the market is starting to doubt whether AI infrastructure investment can continue to grow at the original pace. In the past, whenever tech giants announced increased AI capital expenditures, the market often interpreted it as positive; now, capital is starting to question when these investments will generate returns, whether data center approvals will slow down, and whether chip demand has already been overextended. The narrative has not disappeared, but the price the market is willing to pay for this narrative is declining. The crypto market has not escaped either. Coinbase and Strategy This is somewhat interesting, but I'm more cautious about the association that "just touching AI will heat things up together." After watching many high-volatility small coins bullishly, I habitually ask first: How many layers separate the income in the news from the token itself? 👀
IREN's mining income dropped by 58%, AI sales reached $200 million; the company plans to basically complete the mining business transformation by December, but the AI business annualized revenue target of $4 billion has been postponed to early 2027. I do not mix sales figures with annualized revenue targets.
My judgment is that this provides some talking points for the computing power narrative, but it is not a general positive for the related small coins. AI sales can support the transformation story, but the postponed target also indicates uncertainty in the fulfillment pace; a company generating revenue does not necessarily mean the token can capture that value. If sentiment directly equates the two, I guess there will be short-term volatility opportunities, but also a gap when the hype fades. I will focus on the connection between business fulfillment and token value capture going forward, and not take keywords as logic. Last preview before the non-farm payrolls: Currently known data shows 86,000 new jobs added in the US private sector in October, initial jobless claims last week dropped to 189,000, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in December have somewhat decreased. Therefore, Ajian will focus on three key questions tonight:
1. Does the new non-farm payroll number significantly deviate from expectations?
2. Do the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings indicate the labor market remains tight?
3. After the data release, do US Treasury yields and the dollar show directional changes?
Additionally, to avoid impulsive actions, remember three rules:
1. Do not place bets before 21:00; any predictions before the data release are just guesses;
2. For risk assets like $BTC and $ETH, the non-farm data itself is not a trading signal. After the data, first watch BTC’s one-hour close: if it closes above 78,000 with volume, consider a rebound; if it falls below 74,000 with volume, expect pressure; do nothing if it’s in between;
3. No trades should cross the November 10 CPI date.
That’s all, DYOR. #NonFarmRevealedTonight How will the market bet on the December rate hike after the US stock market plunge? Yesterday AI trading was bloodied: Nasdaq -5.52% closed at 24315, the largest single-day drop in 19 months, officially entering correction territory; Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -12%, the second largest in history; Nvidia -9.3%, SanDisk -22%, Micron and AMD both -17%, the seven giants evaporated over 1 trillion.
The trigger was the Democratic Party sweeping the midterm elections, concerns over AI regulation and data center construction slowing down, plus Qualcomm's mobile chip revenue down 26%, slow returns on AI spending, and crowded trade stampede.
My view: short-term bearish. Overnight Nasdaq futures rebounded about 800 points but only recovered 15% of the drop, Asia session Nikkei entered a bear market, Kospi -8%, the downtrend is still spreading; tonight at 21:30 Nonfarm Payrolls, regardless of strength, are unlikely to directly reverse this—if strong, it cools rate cut expectations; if weak, recession worries take over. Consider this an oversold rebound for now, wait for Nonfarm data and stabilization of leaders before deciding.
Crypto market is under pressure simultaneously: $BTC this morning at 75734, down 5.8% in 24 hours. The above is my opinion and does not constitute investment advice. AI has burned so much money, how many years do you think it will take to break even? #Oklo How far is the nuclear power layout from commercialization?
The leader has something to say
I looked at Oklo's earnings report this morning together with last night's sharp drop, and only then did I understand why it fell 11% last night but rose 1.9% today: Q3 results were released pre-market, with market expectations of about $2.2 million in revenue, doubling quarter-over-quarter, but compared to its burn rate, this revenue is still a drop in the bucket; the first Aurora reactor won't generate power until 2028, so short-term income mainly depends on isotopes and fuel materials. Last night the entire AI chain was bloodied, so the fact that it closed up is relatively strong.
My interpretation is: For a stock like Oklo, the earnings numbers themselves are not important; what matters is the management's stance on cash burn and approval progress. ARK is still increasing its position, betting on the decade-long main theme of AI power bottlenecks; but in an environment where the Nasdaq fell 5.5% in a day and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 12%, even Microsoft and Amazon were indiscriminately sold off. For a "story stock" like Oklo not to continue collapsing depends entirely on the market sentiment holding up temporarily. It is not a weather vane, but a sentiment thermometer—its rise indicates that the worst panic selling has passed.
BTC is currently around 75,800, and I continue to stay out, waiting for tonight's nonfarm payrolls. My approach: I won't chase this rebound in Oklo, nor will I enter BTC just because it is up; I will watch if 75,000 holds, and if it breaks, look down to 73,000. With earnings season overlapping the nonfarm night, all rebounds should be treated as dead cat bounces until the data lands and the direction becomes clear.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK A $3.2 trillion loss overnight, even larger than the entire crypto market cap of $2.53 trillion. After BTC hit a new low, it temporarily stabilized above 75,000, while ETH stubbornly held above 2,200 without breaking the new low; but after the midterm elections, BTC has averaged a 37% bottoming three times over about 41 days, and the Fed's hawkish tone is rising again. Tonight at 21:30 is the non-farm payrolls, ADP at 86,000, initial claims at 189,000 are relatively strong; if the data exceeds expectations, don't be surprised by 74,000-72,000-69,000. Don't chase orders in the first minute at 9:30, wait half an hour to see the direction; as long as the data isn't one-sided, the probability of wicks up and down is very high. Set your strategy, stop loss, and position first. There was a detail this week that concerned me more than $BTC dropping back to 75,000: during Thursday's liquidation wave, the amount of money wiped out on several US stock perpetual contracts in crypto derivatives exceeded that of $SOL. According to CoinGlass statistics, about $1.25 billion worth of liquidations occurred across the entire network within 24 hours, nearly 90% of which were long positions. Among them, the perpetual contract tracking SanDisk liquidated about $58 million, the 3x leveraged chip stock SOXL liquidated about $57 million, while SOL was only around $43 million. That day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 12.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 5.52%. My understanding is: many people are simultaneously holding leveraged positions in both crypto and chip stocks on the same platform. When tech stocks plunge, margin calls come simultaneously, and forced liquidations likely don't distinguish between crypto or stocks. On OKX, BTC fell from a Wednesday high of 81,200 to a low of 75,200 today, making a round trip in two days — it's not just a crypto-only issue. A note to myself: when assessing BTC risk in the future, I need to watch the Nasdaq and chip stocks market as well; if leveraged, don't just focus on crypto prices when calculating liquidation prices, because problems in US stocks during trading hours can spill over. Do you now watch the US stock market alongside crypto before deciding your crypto positions?$DOGE
DOGE spot 24-hour trading volume is about $43.71 million, perpetual positions about $91.2 million, with the contract pool nearly twice the spot volume.
I will take a closer look at this ratio. Current price is 0.07176, down from 0.0766 in 24 hours, with a low of 0.07022; contract trading is very active, but the price is still pressed near the daily low. The rate is about 0.0063%, longs pay fees but it’s not at a crowded level.
So I don’t directly consider large trading volume as capital support. Perpetual turnover can be very fast, but spot support is harder to fake. Right now, this data looks more like leverage exchanging hands internally, and the direction hasn’t given me enough reason yet.
Watching the market too much on the bullish side, it’s easiest to mistake the activity for buying pressure.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Dash has released Core v24.0.0, and this is not an ordinary iteration. It includes the v24 network upgrade, which is a hard fork, and all nodes must update. Nodes that do not update will be left on the old chain, which is the most easily overlooked part of the cost.
First, the toughest statement in the announcement: nodes must keep up. But for those holding $DASH, the truly worth-reading part is another section — decentralized masternode shares.
The new mechanism is DIP-0026: it allows multiple parties to jointly hold a single masternode collateral, with rewards split through multi-party payments. In plain terms, previously a masternode was a business bought out as a whole machine; now it can be co-subscribed and settled by shares.
Once this door opens, the impact is more than just financial. Masternodes are also governance participants; splitting collateral into shares means the funds participating in governance change from a single large holder to a group of small partners. Who votes and who the votes represent will become blurred.
The other changes are more pragmatic: expanded masternode addresses, Dash Platform improvements, coin mixing denomination adjustments, descriptor wallets enabled by default, and support for compact quorum proofs. These don’t create stories, just pay down technical debt.
My judgment is that the hard fork itself is neither bullish nor bearish; it is an operational event. In the short term, what to guard against are transfer errors and node dropouts during the fork window, not the price.A violent rebound wave directly woke up the large holders who had been dormant for a year to sell off 😂 $BTC $ETH
Check the address polypol on X, which redeemed tokens from Aave in the past 10 hours, then immediately sold $ETH and stETH worth 6,357,000 USD on-chain at an average price of 2428.
Wallet: 0x52ee6E1Af57889a513bf65AD7010ED36DA7FAAE3
Silent for a whole year, they chose to take profits as soon as the rebound came. This concentrated sell-off by long-term dormant large holders is a real selling pressure on the rebound path, so do not blindly chase the highs.
The market is highly volatile; the above is only on-chain information sharing and does not constitute any investment advice ⚠️My first reaction: This feels like taking an elevator down, and someone next to you is handing out ride subsidies. The subsidy looks pretty tempting, but what I really want to ask is: How many floors is the elevator planning to stop at? 😂
In Hyperliquid perpetual public market data, $WLD currently has the highest absolute funding rate at -0.0065% per hour, which annualizes to about -57%, and it dropped 8.15% in 24 hours. A negative funding rate means shorts pay longs. I think this information should be treated as a position cost warning rather than a "yield advertisement": the bearish side actually has to pay to maintain their position.
The reason is practical: funding rates can change, and the annualized figure just extends the current rate—it’s not a full-year bill; longs receive funding but still bear price volatility, so receiving payments doesn’t equal making a profit. If the negative funding rate persists, under the current mechanism, the waiting cost for shorts will accumulate. That’s my speculation. Would you rather check how long the funding rate can last or how crowded the positions are—check the subsidy first, or check if the elevator is overloaded first?$BTC was still pushing towards 81,000 yesterday, but today it directly dropped back to 75,000! Those chasing longs are probably stunned by this wave.
On November 6, BTC hit a low of 75,158 USD, dropping over 6% in 24 hours, with contract turnover exceeding 21.3 billion USD.
Even more exciting, at 21:30 tonight, the US October non-farm payroll data will be released, with the market expecting about 65,000 new jobs.
First, the judgment: short-term remains bearish, no rush to bottom-fish for now.
This drop is not just ugly in price. The 4-hour contract open interest once fell from 96,600 to 91,600 contracts, clearly showing deleveraging, then it somewhat recovered.
Yesterday's big bullish rebound candle has basically been eaten back now.
The plan going forward is simple:
First, see if 75,000 USD can hold. If it breaks, next focus is 73,000.
If it rebounds near 77,000, more inclined to watch for shorting opportunities; if it firmly stands above 78,000, the short-term bearish view is canceled.
If tonight's non-farm data significantly deviates from expectations, volatility may further increase; it's not suitable to take high-leverage directional bets before the data release.
The most awkward thing now is not how much BTC has dropped, but that just yesterday people thought the market was back, and today the market has brought them back to reality.
Can 75,000 hold this time? #非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ The AI business annual revenue target has been postponed to early 2027, and I am once again reminded of the familiar narrative shift from the previous mining company cycle.
This time it's different. IREN already has AI sales revenue, and while mining revenue is declining, it also plans to basically complete the transformation of its mining business. I judge that companies like this are gradually losing their role as a crypto cycle thermometer: with the business focus changed, the stock price may no longer reflect mining industry prosperity. In the future, when looking at mining stocks, I will first break down the business before discussing bull or bear markets. Why has the $ETH cryptocurrency entered a bear market? I believe there are five deep-rooted issues:
First, the dilemma of the payment narrative.
Ethereum network fees have been persistently high, transaction costs remain elevated, and there is still a significant gap between the actual payment experience and large-scale daily applications. The payment narrative has never truly been fulfilled.
Second, the contradiction in the banking narrative.
Cryptocurrency has always emphasized integration with the traditional banking system, but there are fundamental differences in underlying operational logic, financial architecture, and trust mechanisms. Whether the so-called large-scale embrace of cryptocurrency by banks is genuine integration or just a market narrative is worth pondering.
Third, the fog of the regulatory narrative.
The market is often driven by various regulatory news, political reports, and policy expectations, including tokens issued by political figures. This creates real value expectations for investors, but sentiment driven by news does not equate to improvements in the industry's fundamentals.
Fourth, the crisis of security and trust.
If even the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges experience major security incidents, users' trust in exchanges, custodians, and the entire industry will be severely impacted. This is a very critical issue.
Fifth, the long-term security challenges brought by quantum computing.
Currently, the security system of cryptocurrencies still faces various risks, and the future development of quantum computing technology may further challenge existing cryptographic systems, leading to greater uncertainty.
In the end: if an industry’s payment value is not fully realized, financial integration has structural contradictions, regulatory narratives are full of uncertainty, and security and trust... First, a bit of cold water: just because the bridge is connected doesn't mean the funds will stay. When I see this kind of integration news, I usually separate "experience improvement" from "ecosystem takeoff." This time, I'm cautious: it's a functional positive, but I don't think the evidence is enough to interpret it as a growth inflection point.
Stargate has officially integrated with AnubisChain, synchronously opening cross-chain routing and liquidity pools for mainstream assets like USDC, USDT, DAI, ETH, etc. Based on the existing LayerZero endpoints, a single transaction completes the process, with native assets arriving and ready to use immediately, without wrapping or secondary exchanges. I'm not rushing to get excited for two reasons: the operation is convenient and indeed lowers the entry barrier for users, but if the chain lacks continuous use cases, the funds might just pass through; Stargate's cumulative cross-chain transaction volume exceeds $70 billion, making it the largest application in the LayerZero ecosystem, but that's its cumulative achievement and cannot be directly counted as new demand for AnubisChain. The volume of the channel and the attractiveness of the destination are two different things.
Of course, the bulls might be right. If we later see sustained net inflows, and the funds are genuinely used after entering, with liquidity retained, I will change my view and upgrade it from "good entry point" to "growth beginning to materialize." What I'll be watching next is what the funds stay to do, not celebrating the new chain prematurely based on the bridge's historical performance.US stocks suddenly experience a collective sell-off! AI panic spreads, why is the crypto market also turning sour?
After the US midterm elections, the Democrats took control of both houses of Congress. The market once bet that Trump's military actions against Iran would be limited, leading to a brief rebound in risk appetite.
But yesterday, the market suddenly experienced a sharp collective pullback, followed by a rebound in gold and oil prices.
There are three main reasons for this sharp drop:
1. Rising concerns over AI investment returns, with the market starting to question whether huge investments in data centers and chips can deliver profits (SanDisk, oh SanDisk).
2. With the Democrats controlling both houses, future regulations and approvals may tighten, creating new uncertainties for AI industry expansion expectations.
3. Concentrated sell-off in chip stocks triggered leveraged funds to liquidate positions in a chain reaction, spreading panic further into the crypto market.
BTC: briefly fell below $76,000, with large-scale liquidations in derivatives.
BZ: initially dropped due to easing US-Iran tensions expectations, then rebounded.
XAU: safe-haven funds flowed back, pushing gold prices higher again.
I believe this market plunge is not entirely caused by political factors; overcrowded AI trading is the direct trigger.
As US-Iran tensions become a focus again, the safe-haven logic for BZ and XAU is once again in the spotlight, while BTC still needs to digest the impact of market deleveraging.
The trends of these three assets may increasingly diverge going forward (this is the core point).
#美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 $BTC $BZ $XAU A blood pressure drop to seventy is not scary; what's scary is the simultaneous collapse of both ventricles on the monitor, while the cause is not in the myocardium itself. Putting Tesla and SpaceX's combined evaporation of about $456 billion on the operating table, the price plunge is just hypotension, a symptom; the real lesion is the regulatory immune system activated by political outcomes. The Democrats took both chambers, and Musk had previously heavily backed the Republicans. This political exposure is like a donor-recipient mismatch — not necessarily causing immediate rejection, but every hour of postoperative monitoring raises inflammatory factors.
The Dow Jones market data's combined market value loss is just a rough estimate of intraoperative blood loss. More critical is the hemodynamics: the overall tech stock sell-off is a systemic inflammatory response, regulatory scrutiny expectations are coronary spasms, and ischemia in both assets causes both ventricles to drop pressure simultaneously. Looking only at the decline looks like myocardial depression; tracing the cause reveals conduction block — the policy signal is stuck transmitting from the atria to the ventricles, so the contraction command can't get through, and perfusion pressure naturally can't hold.
The linkage of the tokenized asset $xSNDK is not another independent heart but pressure changes in the same extracorporeal circulation circuit. When the underlying asset experiences conduction block, the mapped asset doesn't beat on its own; it just relays central venous pressure, oxygen supply and consumption, and perfusion insufficiency to the market in real time. The more dramatic the price, the more it resembles the brief electrical activity after defibrillation: having a waveform doesn't equal effective cardiac output. What really needs monitoring is whether the anastomosis leaks, whether new thrombosis occurs, and whether afterload continues to increase. Whether regulatory scrutiny acts as an immunosuppressant or rejection reaction determines if this myocardium can recover from depression; whether the tech stock sell-off is blood loss or infection determines if intra-aortic balloon pump support is needed. My judgment: this is not a simple tech stock correction but coronary spasm triggered by political risk; before blood flow recovers, any rebound is just a pseudo-contraction after myocardial depression. #teslaspacex456blossTarget price is close to the current price, has gold been abandoned by institutions?
Gold price target by Goldman Sachs lowered to $4150 by year-end, and only $4800 expected by 2027
The reason behind this is the anticipated Fed rate hike in December.
Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, suppress Western ETF buying, and may strengthen the dollar.
My judgment: The structural bullish logic for gold remains, but short-term bias is bearish or sideways.
Central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization are medium to long-term floors; the current range around $4000–4100 partially reflects hawkish expectations, with limited downside and insufficient upside elasticity. It is not advisable to chase highs aggressively; better to accumulate gradually on dips rather than betting on a short-term surge.
Trading advice:
$XAU Long-term funds can invest regularly below $4000 or within the $3800–4000 range.
For short-term, opening a small short position near $4100 is also possible, but adjustments should be made promptly based on tonight's nonfarm payroll data! #非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ $XAUT The drop in the storage sector this time is really a bit exaggerated 😑
SanDisk $SNDK plummeted over 22% overnight, Micron $MU fell more than 17%, and South Korea's Hynix $SKHYNIX also dropped over 13% in early trading
Several leading storage companies were almost simultaneously sold off, what's going on in the market? Let me share some personal views
Previously, the market's pricing logic for storage was very clear: AI computing power expansion drove HBM demand, data center investments pushed DRAM and NAND demand growth, and relatively tight supply further reinforced price hike expectations
But now the market worries whether AI capital expenditure growth can be sustained
There is not yet enough evidence to show that storage demand has experienced a cliff-like drop, but when stock prices have already priced in high growth for the coming years, even a slight loosening of expectations can trigger a sharp correction
I still remain optimistic about the long-term demand for the storage industry, but I won't easily catch this accelerated decline in the short term
Let's first see if the funds can stabilize before discussing whether the valuation is reasonable
#韩股KOSPI暴跌触发熔断，半导体集体重挫 A record revenue for the sixth consecutive quarter is never a brilliant opening move—it’s simply a forced response after the opponent has repeatedly made the same structural mistake six times in a row.
The pawn chain in the data center has already reached the opponent’s secondary baseline: a year-over-year 254.2, with 156 units of pieces piercing directly into the center—this is the most typical central breakthrough in the opening phase. Total revenue at 270, year-over-year 127.5, setting a record for the sixth consecutive quarter—there are no accidental winning streaks on the board, only the same structure being repeatedly crushed. What truly deserves attention is not the growth rate itself, but the net profit turning positive under generally accepted accounting principles: in previous quarters, it had been sacrificing pieces to attack, exchanging losses for market share, leaving observers unclear about what compensation it sought; now the compensation has been realized, the sacrificed pawns have become pathway pawns, and the piece advantage has appeared on the books for the first time.
The Q4 guidance of 385 to 420, nearly 50% higher than the current quarter—this is not a forecast, it’s the next move revealed in advance, no longer hidden. The 800G and 1.6T capacity expansions essentially occupy the endgame’s spatial squares before the opponent has even figured out the midgame piece exchange sequence. Whoever controls the squares doesn’t need to rush the exchanges; this is the first chapter in all endgame textbooks.
But don’t rush to call checkmate. The linked target $xTSM is just a shadow piece on the same board; it can amplify the initiative, but it can also amplify time panic. When the price factors in good news all at once into the current square, it’s equivalent to realizing changes twenty moves ahead prematurely in the midgame—this is the most dangerous kind of move: leading in piece count on the books, but the king’s wing has yet to complete castling. The real watershed is never about how steep the revenue curve is, but about the two hidden lines of expansion pace and customer validation sequence: the realization of 800G capacity and the 1.6T certification queue—any delay in either step, and the initiative immediately flows back, turning advantage into a target.
What I’m watching is not how much it wins this quarter, but when its opponent is forced to respond, forced to exchange pieces in an unfavorable structure. After the demand-side pawn chain pushes to the secondary baseline, every capacity expansion is a check to the pursuer; but check is not checkmate—checkmate depends on who still has a pathway pawn and a bishop that can hold the key square in the endgame.
The decisive move in this game is not in the revenue curve, but in whose endgame technique first shows weakness. #aaoiq3revenueup128%At 21:30 in the evening, the U.S. October employment and wage composite data will be released, serving as the core macro pricing window affecting the short-term volatility of BTC and ETH.
Current market expectation framework: Previous nonfarm payroll increase was 29,000, consensus expectation is 65,000; previous and expected unemployment rate remains steady at 4.20%; wage annual growth expectation has fallen from 3.00% to 2.90%. The core of the market game is not the absolute data values, but the Fed rate cut path repricing caused by the difference between data and expectations.
▫️ If employment data is stronger than expected: labor market resilience is confirmed, rate cut expectations are pushed back and suppressed, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen, and risk asset valuations come under pressure. ETH has a higher beta characteristic, so its volatility premium will be higher than BTC, and there is a possibility of concentrated leverage liquidation in the market.
▫️ If employment data is weaker than expected: easing expectations are repriced, risk appetite recovers, bringing impulse rebound momentum to the market, but caution is needed for a pullback after the positive news is realized due to profit-taking.
▫️ Wage data is a hidden variable: even if employment numbers meet expectations, if wage growth exceeds expectations, the inflation resilience narrative will return, and market interpretation will turn hawkish. Employment figures alone cannot be relied upon for judgment. $BTC $ETH #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Party A's single design change order can push the topping-off node of the entire skyscraper back by nine months — and this quarterly report is essentially a monthly construction progress report with that change order attached.
First, look at the main structure. Revenue increased 66% month-over-month to $228 million; this is not a single-floor rush topping-off, but the concrete pouring rhythm of the entire building has stabilized, with the vertical structure continuously climbing. Computing power cloud revenue reached $200 million, up 182% year-over-year, equivalent to the core tube's climbing formwork system suddenly accelerating by more than double, making it the fastest load-bearing component in the entire project. Microsoft's Horizon One has been put into operation — the model floor has been delivered, and Party A's personnel have already moved in to work. This is the toughest checkpoint in structural acceptance; the physical structure stands there, not a rendering or an effect image.
But what really keeps me staring at the blueprints is that bent progress bar. The $4 billion annual recurring revenue target has shifted from the end of 2026 to January 2027, and may even slip to the end of February. The reason is honestly stated: client design changes combined with supplier delivery scheduling. These two together are the kind of combination that would wake any general contractor up in the middle of the night.
Client design changes themselves are not scary; what’s scary is that they come after the curtain wall order has been placed. The prefabricated unit panel molds have already been made and production scheduled, and now Party A wants to adjust the facade and recalculate loads, instantly breaking the previously tight critical path. Supplier delivery scheduling is the second load-bearing beam — steel structure, MEP, vertical transportation; if any link fails, the handover date of the entire building must be renegotiated.
My judgment is clear: this is not foundation settlement, but a misalignment between construction organization and supply chain rhythm. The foundation is fine, the core tube is still rising, and the revenue structure is shifting from a single long-term lease to multi-tenant, which is a healthy building logic. The schedule delay belongs to process coordination issues, not structural failure.
But the market often misreads this. The linkage of targets like $xPLTR most easily makes the mistake of treating the decorator’s work as load-bearing wall calculations — seeing the construction speed of one computing infrastructure and then inferring the foundation strength of another is like estimating foundation depth from facade renderings, which will inevitably cause problems at acceptance.
The real key node is not whether it’s January or the end of February, but whether the 182% climbing formwork speed can be maintained in the next monthly report, and whether any new hidden works appear after the change order is signed.
The change order has already been signed; now I’m only watching whether the next steel column hoisting is misaligned. #irenaicloudgrowth182%Among the thirty-four institutions, twenty-four gave the same figure: 4.2%. Tonight at 21:30, the U.S. October unemployment rate will be announced. Another eight predict 4.1%, two predict 4.3%, and Reuters expects 4.2%. The distribution of answers is very narrow, yet ten institutions stand on either side, and the tension lies within these ten.
Why is a fraction of a percentage point worth watching? The unemployment rate is the item in the nonfarm report that best reflects the labor market's temperature. It not only looks at whether people have jobs but also whether job seekers have given up. 4.1% indicates employment is still attracting people, 4.3% indicates cooling has begun. The 0.2 percentage point in between is the dividing line for whether the Federal Reserve will continue to hold steady.
For the crypto market, this data does not change the direction, only the pace. If the data lands at 4.2%, it confirms the labor market is balanced, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to maintain current interest rates. BTC is likely to oscillate within a range to digest this, ETH will follow but with greater volatility, and high beta assets like SOL will amplify the fluctuations. The truly painful scenario is 4.3%, which would be interpreted as economic weakening, causing risk assets to drop first before any talk of rate cuts.
So tonight, don’t bet on direction, bet on volatility. Lower leverage before the data comes out; spikes often happen within three minutes after the announcement.
Something to consider: twenty-four institutions agree, but historically when consensus is unanimous and wrong, market reactions tend to be more intense. The stronger the consensus, the more costly the surprise.The first cold air mass did not come down from Siberia; it was funneled in through the spot fund subscription and redemption window: a net outflow of about 1.12 billion USD over seven days, with the wind direction overnight shifting from southward to northward, causing the market temperature to plummet sharply.
This is a standard frontal passage. Warm, moist air is lifted, condenses, and then falls as rain; leveraged positions are like the water vapor lifted above the condensation level—once the rain stops, it’s gone. But what really matters is not the rainfall amount, but the low-level humidity after the rain stops: on-chain data agencies recorded that after the pullback, trading activity remained above the August low, indicating that low-level convergence persists and the moisture channel has not been completely cut off. The latest trading day saw a slight net inflow, but that was just scattered light rain behind the front, neither widespread nor sustained, and cannot be taken as a signal of a reversal in the pressure system.
The wind field is the core observation point. Over the past twelve months, Bitcoin’s annualized volatility recorded 44%, Tesla’s 46%, both almost at the same wind force level, with their level 7 wind circles overlapping at the edges—this is why when the US stock market experiences a thunderstorm, the rain falls here first. Meanwhile, the three-year correlation with gold is only about 4%, with two isobars nearly parallel, meaning it has not yet been taken over by safe-haven airflows; its safe-haven attribute remains a paper-based probe data, not reality. When the US stock market sold off on November 5, gold weakened simultaneously—not a coincidence, but the same low-pressure trough controlling the weather: when the risk appetite pressure gradient changes, it first drops temperature, then visibility.
The transmission to US stock mapped targets is similar. The upstream is the same upper trough; downstream only differs in precipitation phase; the main system does not turn, and no matter how much the tributary echoes intensify, it is only localized strong convection, coming fast and dissipating fast. Capital is like the subsiding airflow on the outskirts of a typhoon; the sky looks clear, but the feeling is stuffy—the clearer it is, the more caution is needed.
The current upper-air situation is: northwest airflow dominates, a shortwave trough is moving east in the mid-levels, surface pressure gradient is widening, and forecast consensus shows considerable divergence. This is not a climate state shift, but enough to double the wind speed at mountain passes—the same weather system makes mountain passes and leeward slopes completely different worlds.
Radar echoes show that convection in the warm zone has weakened, but the strong wind zone behind the cold front has not fully arrived; dew points are still dropping, and an inversion layer is forming. #btcetfoutflowsinfocus$BTC plunged last night along with the Nasdaq, hitting an intraday low of about $75,568. Approximately $1 billion worth of liquidations occurred across the network in 24 hours, about 89% of which were long positions (CoinGlass). This sell-off is not due to negative news from the crypto sector itself, but rather the US stock market AI chain: the Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 5.52%.
Next, I am watching three dates:
Today 16:00 (Beijing time): Reportedly about $2.65 billion in $BTC options will expire, with the biggest pain point around 79,000.
November 17 (US Eastern Time): Nvidia earnings report, the next switch for AI chain sentiment.
November 30: Trump Media convertible bond holders can request a put, involving about $1 billion. Approximately 4,259 $BTC used as collateral were just transferred to an exchange address yesterday; the company has not said it intends to sell.
On-chain, only transfers to the exchange are seen, no trades. Whether they sell or not, the answer will come before November 30.
This does not constitute investment advice, DYOR.
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ $BTC crashed from above 80,000 down to around 75,000, with $1.254 billion liquidated in 24 hours and 238,600 people forced out, long positions accounted for 1.11 billion [reference:0].
$ETH dropped to 2206, losing over 7 points in a day, leveraged longs didn't even get a chance to place orders.
The trigger isn't within the crypto circle itself; the Democrats swept both chambers in the midterm elections, and the newly elected Texas governor immediately called to suspend data center approvals, putting the brakes on the AI capital expenditure story.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index in the US stock market crashed over 12% in one day, Nvidia fell 9.3%, Micron and AMD each dropped 17%.
But the money hasn't evaporated, it just changed tables.
China's A-share ChiNext index fell 3.5% in half a day, over 4,500 stocks turned red, the electronics sector saw a net outflow of 11.7 billion yuan, but the seed industry and power sectors stubbornly hit their daily limit up.
Wanxiang Denong hit 2 limit-ups in 3 days, Xin Sai shares sealed the limit up, Li New Energy and Xin Neng shares hit vertical limit ups, the super strong El Niño is confirmed to last until February next year, and Thai rice prices surged to $499 per ton.
Yongzhen shares in photovoltaics also hit 4 consecutive limit ups, money is all moving to places with food and electricity.
The real new thing in crypto today isn't in the candlesticks; the Treasury Department has already opened public comments on the GENIUS Act stablecoin issuance licensing rules, with both federal and state-level compliance paths moving forward.
The Clarity Act is basically dead, but the stablecoin path is becoming clearer and clearer.
The excitement built by leverage shatters at the slightest touch; money only moves to tables where real things can be pulled out.The short position blew up while working, so I lost the mood to work. I took a long position for a while and it came back. $AKE rebounded near the bottom at 0.002 and pulled up, trapping some big holders again. Seeing 0.6, should I close the position? Any advice from the experts?
The two-hour increase is nearly 85%. With the market moving like this, we should pay more attention to where the selling pressure is stronger above.
On-chain data shows nearly 960,000 short positions liquidated in 4 hours, and short-term funds are still flowing in, but the price formed initial selling pressure at 0.0045 and slightly pulled back.
From the liquidation chart, are there any retail short positions liquidated above 0.0049 in the short term? If the whales want to liquidate short positions, the main force would have to push it near 0.010, with a market cap around 500 million. But does the main force have that capability?
For operations, pay attention to resistance levels at 0.0045 / 0.0055 / 0.0060 above, and watch the sustainability of the rebound below. $AKE The laboratory's order reserves are sufficient, and past financial reports often exceeded expectations. This quarter's revenue guidance is close to market expectations, with a slight potential to surpass them. However, the progress of the Neutron rocket and R&D investments will suppress profits, making it difficult to narrow losses. If performance only meets expectations, the stock price is unlikely to have strong catalysts. Aerospace stocks are highly volatile; this is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.This reminder makes me think of trying on a suit in a mall: in the mirror, you look like the chairman, but when paying, you still have to check your bank card. When I look at a large position, I also have to separate the "appearance" from the "confidence" 😂
Core Trader 14 this time used 10x leverage to go long on $HYPE, with a position of 6,500 tokens, nominal value about $505,200. My judgment is: the direction is clear, but this number alone is not enough to prove how confident he is. Roughly calculated by leverage, the corresponding margin is about $50,500; nominal value does not equal invested principal; for every $1 the price moves against, this position would roughly lose $6,500 unrealized, the appearance hides real volatility; the material also does not show the complete assets and hedging situation, so you can't read a single long position as the entire bet.
Would you rather track "whether there is continued adding to the long position" or "whether there is a hedging position"? I choose the latter; no matter how sharp the suit looks, it can't support your wallet.Storage stocks have delivered good results, so why are prices still falling?
Three storage stock-related contracts are quoted in USDT: $SNDK 859.07, $SKHYNIX 861.59, $MU 687.20, down 15.7%, 10.5%, and 12.3% respectively in the past 24 hours. Good earnings reports and difficult trading can both be true at the same time.
SanDisk's latest fiscal quarter non-GAAP gross margin was 85.1%, with next quarter guidance between 84.5% and 85.5%. The profitability is very strong, but the midpoint of the guidance does not show further improvement. For the price, maintaining high profits and profit margins consistently exceeding expectations are clearly different levels of positive surprises; after a significant pullback, the debate seems to focus on how long this high level can be sustained.
SK Hynix has already started substantial shipments of HBM4 and expects it to become a mainstream product in Q4. Here, it is important to distinguish between deliveries already made and company expectations: technological upgrades provide a path for revenue growth, but subsequent product transitions still require execution. Directly equating industry prosperity with contract price increases omits the crucial step the market cares most about: how much profit shipments will ultimately bring.
Micron's revenue guidance for the next quarter is $61.5 billion, with a fluctuation range of $1.5 billion, and a non-GAAP gross margin expected around 86.25%. Revenue expansion is still planned, but profit margins are not infinitely upward. All three companies have business support, yet contracts are still under pressure together. I tend to interpret this as high expectations being reassessed rather than declaring storage demand has suddenly disappeared based on the price drops.I think the odds in prediction markets can reflect sentiment, but with a caveat: this is the sentiment of the funds within the market, not the overall opinion of the entire crypto community. Normally when trading Bitcoin, everyone can have their own ideas about what might happen next; but in prediction markets, the disagreements focus on specific questions. However, the voices of those with more money are louder, and when the market has little trading volume, I get a bit suspicious: if the odds suddenly change, is it because many people changed their minds, or just one person moved some money?💻 When I saw this message, my first reaction was: just because the interface is online doesn't mean users will come. When writing code, the biggest fear is mistaking "deployment success" for "requirement validation success." I have the same problem when looking at the on-chain ecosystem.
The input for this review is: AnubisChain announced that the NFTX NFT trading platform has officially launched, and the network ecosystem now covers DeFi, RWA, Meme, NFT, and other fields. I judge this as a positive development at the infrastructure level, but it cannot yet be directly equated with improved NFT liquidity.
The logic is that increasing trading entry points can provide an additional scenario for asset issuance, display, and circulation; the potential bug is that having a platform does not mean there are continuous buyers, and broad coverage of sectors does not mean applications can form synergy. For creators, having works listed and having someone willing to take them are two different things.
If it were me, I would change the acceptance criteria from "how many platforms are connected" to "whether there are continuous transactions and user revisits." Next, I will focus on actual usage and won't rush to mark the ecosystem as thriving.PONS has dropped over 15%, with buy-side limit orders near the current price about twice the sell-side, but this advantage is shrinking.
At 14:23 on OKX, the spot quote is about 0.1875, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $5.03 million. Within 1% of the mid-price, buy-side limit orders amount to about $124,000, while sell-side orders are about $63,000. At 12:27, under the same criteria, it was about $122,000 versus $32,000; the buy-side amount is similar, but the sell-side has clearly increased.
My judgment is that the order book currently has some buffering, but the advantage is weakening. Limit orders can be withdrawn at any time, so the buy wall should not be mistaken for completed purchases, nor should this order book chart be taken as confirmation of a price bottom.
I am more focused on whether the buy-side limit orders can hold during the next dip and whether actual trades follow through. If the buy-side depth quickly retreats, the current assumption of support will fail.
$PONS People tend to see new product records as a positive sign, but my first reaction is: fuller shelves don’t mean more buyers.
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange launched 25 new products this quarter, including the first ETF that invests simultaneously in gold futures and physical Bitcoin; net profit fell 1% year-on-year to HKD 4.9 billion.
On the other hand, I don’t equate new launches with prosperity: the number of products does not equal new capital; the profit decline also shows that new products and performance are not synonymous. What data would you use to prove that demand has kept up with supply? I welcome those with opposing views to debate.The Korean stock market today opened and completely shocked me, dropping to a circuit breaker in just 3 minutes!
The KOSPI plunged more than 8% in early trading, breaking below 5000 points and triggering a circuit breaker, halting the entire market for 20 minutes.
Samsung Electronics fell nearly 10% intraday, SK Hynix $SKHYNIX dropped over 11%, with both semiconductor giants being sold off simultaneously. Although the index later recovered somewhat, the market panic was already very evident.
The Korean stock market's strong rise this year has largely relied on AI and the semiconductor industry chain, especially Samsung ($SAMSUNG) and SK Hynix ($SKHYNIX).
This is also where the problem lies.
These two companies have too much index weight, so once funds start concentrated selling in the memory chip sector, the entire KOSPI will be dragged down.
Coupled with the overnight plunge in US tech stocks, the market began to worry about a slowdown in US AI data center investments, and overseas funds are continuously withdrawing, causing a stampede in the previously crowded AI trades.
This crash also served as a wake-up call for the market.
Even if semiconductor industry orders and demand have not fundamentally changed, in the short term it may not withstand the shock caused by concentrated fund withdrawals.
Next, we mainly observe two signals: whether foreign capital selling can significantly ease, and whether SK Hynix can lead the stop in the decline.
If these two signals do not appear soon, there may be repeated fluctuations ahead.
What do you think? Is the Korean stock market being oversold this time, or is the AI sector adjustment just beginning?
#KOSPI下跌超過6% Cut 18 points in two hours last night, only climbed back 2 points in fourteen hours today.
At 22:00, 65,403 contracts were slammed from 296.01 down to 287.57; at 23:00, another 73,218 contracts pierced 277.57. In two hours, 139,000 contracts traded, and 18 points were lost.
Then over fourteen 1H candles, a total of 115,000 contracts, the close only moved from 280.90 to 282.80. When slammed, it moved 9.2 points in one hour; during the recovery, only 0.14 points.
Volume is still collapsing: 7,494 contracts at 08:00, 1,358 contracts at 13:00, and the current candle has even less. From Beijing close at 04:00 to pre-market at 17:00, no one priced it for these thirteen hours, so the drawn lines don’t count as support.
Current price 282.80 / -2.52% / MA20 284.87, 2 points overhead.
If the 1H candle closes with volume above 285.50 (≥4,000 contracts) and pulls back to 284.8 without breaking, go long; stop loss at 282.90, target 292.61, risk-reward 4.0, reduce half at 287.57.
No short: breaking 280.46 down to 277.57 is only 2.9 points, risk-reward 1.2.
Do nothing between 282.8~285.5, wait for it to choose.
$GOOGL
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)#NonfarmTonightRevealed, How Will the Market Bet on December Rate Hike After the Sharp Drop in US Stocks? The Trigger for the Crash Is Not in Crypto but in Washington!
From last night to today, the crypto market has been terribly down. $BTC dropped five to six points, $ETH even weaker, down eight points. By this morning, Bitcoin plunged directly to 75200, Ethereum crashed to 2205, and over 220,000 liquidations occurred across the market!
Let's start with the most direct trigger: The Democrats took key seats, changing the political landscape, and the market immediately began to worry about regulation. The most tense focus is AI—data center construction, computing power expansion, and large tech companies could all face stricter scrutiny. AI was the hottest driver in this bull market rally in US stocks, and once that expectation was questioned, selling began.
So you can see a very clear transmission: The Nasdaq dropped nearly 6% overnight, setting a record for single-day point decline; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged over 12%; the VIX fear index broke above 25, rising more than 45% in a day. The choice of funds is straightforward—not switching stocks, but withdrawing from risk assets and fleeing to short-term US Treasuries for safety. The size of US money market funds hit a historic record of 8.016 trillion dollars. The money hasn't disappeared; it just doesn't want to take risks.
This sentiment crossed the Pacific in this morning's session. The South Korean stock market dropped over 8%, triggering a circuit breaker; KOSPI fell below 5000 points; Samsung Electronics dropped 9.98%, SK Hynix fell 11.7%; the Nikkei also approached a technical bear market. The crypto market falling to 75200 is not surprising at all.
But honestly, the election is just a matchstick.Since January 2024, the average net inflow price into US spot Bitcoin ETFs has been about $843,000 per Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin is trading nearly 10% below this price. Therefore, the average dollar price of the ETFs is currently at a loss. The fund flow data also confirms this. This week: Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $490 million. On October 30 alone: a net outflow of $643 million. But since launch: net inflows still total as high as $56.5 billion. In short: some are exiting, but the majority of funds remain held. It now feels more like a phase of speculation and position washing rather than a phase of chasing gains. Are you still focusing on positions and rates, or only looking at the K-line? The most obvious feeling from watching the market these past two days is that the AI concept and price seem disconnected. BTC has slightly warmed near 80,500, with a small upward movement over 24 hours; it dropped below 81,000 but recovered, and whether it can hold steady next is the key. ETH is around 2,425, performing relatively well, with resistance still near 2,500, but its support is more reassuring than the other two. TAO is around 236, clearly weaker, with the greatest resistance among the three; 220 feels like an emotional watershed. Interestingly, Bittensor is advancing cooperation and ecosystem development to consolidate its position as a decentralized AI infrastructure, but the price has not responded in sync. Computing power contributions and subnet activity continue, but token holders do not feel timely capital inflows. What the market is trading here is not the story itself, but whether the story can bring in new buying. The narrative has already been priced in once, and now it has entered a verification period; short-term funds prefer to wait for confirmation rather than rush in first. From a derivatives perspective, this structure tends to be fragile. Prices are weak, expectations remain, bulls may be reluctant to leave, and if the rate is positive, squeeze risk will accumulate; conversely, if positions gradually clear and the rate returns to neutral, it is more conducive to a light rebound later. If BTC can hold above 81,000, risk appetite will ease slightly, and ETH’s follow-up rally rhythm will be smoother; but if BTC loses that level again, weaker assets like TAO will be the first to be taken down.Ripple's CEO Garlinghouse recently said something worth pondering: Candidates who support crypto win in both parties. The point is not who wins, but that crypto no longer belongs to any one party.
In terms of data, the U.S. National Cryptocurrency Association's report on May 13 states that about a quarter of American adults hold crypto assets, and Garlinghouse's figure is 67 million users. Any party wanting to secure a majority cannot bypass this group.
The mechanism is more direct. Chief Legal Officer Aldred credits the victory to the super PAC Fairshake and grassroots organizations. Ripple added $25 million to Fairshake in November 2024. Willing to spend this amount shows it treats the regulatory path as just another line item on the report.
What does this mean for $XRP? In recent years, its biggest discount factor was neither technology nor ecosystem, but the endless legal uncertainty. When "clear rules" shift from slogan to the new Congress's agenda, the discount factor may loosen. But Garlinghouse said it "should continue," which is an expectation, not a fact.
So this is a marginal improvement in the narrative, not a price realization. The pricing power of $BTC and $ETH lies in ETFs, while $XRP depends on regulatory expectations; these two chains are not synchronized.
What’s worth thinking about: If crypto becomes a vote bank that both parties dare not offend, the next thing to be re-priced might not be a particular coin, but the "compliance discount" itself.Tonight’s US ADP employment report lands at 21:15 with a consensus forecast of 70,000 new private-sector jobs, and for crypto traders the number matters less than what it does to December rate-cut expectations. That transmission channel, not the headline itself, is where the real trading risk sits for $BTC and $ETH. The setup is unusually balanced. Positioning is not stretched on either side, which means a strong print could force a fast unwind rather than confirm a trend. An upside surprise lifThe red K candle with 7.85 million contracts this morning is now at a loss of 22 units.
At 08:00, 7.85 million contracts pushed the price up by 47 units to 1327.89. At 09:00, it immediately closed down at 1307.28, with 1333.52 as the day's high, never touched again.
At 11:00, 4.98 million contracts and at 13:00, 4.2 million contracts pressed the price down. The current price is 1258.96, 22 units below the 08:00 bullish open price, down 4.34%, with the MA20 at 1274.97 still 16 units overhead.
Efficiency combined: pushing up 47 units cost 7.85 million contracts (167,000 per unit), dropping 70 units cost 25.47 million contracts (364,000 per unit). Sellers demand double the contracts to push the price by one unit; some truly buy between 1200-1260, but 1330 cannot be pushed up.
If the 1H candle closes above 1265.72 (≥4 million contracts) with volume, and the pullback to 1261~1263 holds without breaking, go long with a stop loss at 1246.30, target 1311.42, risk-reward ratio 3.6.
If the 1H candle closes below 1246.30 (≥4.5 million contracts) with volume, go short with a stop loss at 1268, target 1212.26, risk-reward ratio 2.1.
Do not trade between 1246~1265; do not chase the breakout on the first candle.
$ZEC
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)"Everyone is scared, so it's time to buy the dip"—I don't buy into this statement for now. Panic can indicate low risk appetite, but it cannot by itself complete a price bottom. From my personal market observation: I'm more concerned that in trying to prove oneself contrarian, one might overlook that the low point is still being tested.
Kraken's public quotes show $BTC around 75,370 USD, with the UTC daily low about 75,263, and the past 24-hour low at 75,100. The fact that the price is near the lower end is verifiable; as for whether panic has been fully released, this set of quotes alone cannot determine that, nor can it confirm that selling pressure is exhausted.
I will wait for the hourly close to reclaim 76,000 and observe whether the pullback can hold the low without further decline before I am willing to overturn my current view of not rushing to catch the rebound. If it breaks below the 24-hour low again and the rebound fails to recover, I will cancel the recovery plan; if it just moves sideways at the low, I won't increase risk tolerance just because of waiting longer.
My judgment is that contrarian moves require verification conditions; the worse the sentiment, the higher the odds is not necessarily true. I will first limit the loss boundary of continuous trial and error, without adding positions to cover judgment gaps. Would you rather wait for the key level to be reclaimed, or see the low point rise first? For discussion only, not investment advice.The Democratic Party controlling Congress is considered an "increased resistance to rise," a bearish factor; but it is only a secondary factor, with interest rates and U.S. Treasury bonds being the primary ones. If the interest rate environment is favorable, even with tighter regulation, prices can still rise; if interest rates rise, the bearish impact will be amplified, leading to greater declines.The US stock market crashed, and the crypto market took a hit too! Tonight's non-farm payrolls could be the trigger for the next market move.
Today's market is indeed turbulent.
BTC has fallen back below $77,000, at one point dropping close to $75,000, ETH has fallen even more, and SOL has also seen a significant pullback.
This decline cannot be simply attributed to negative news within the crypto space.
Last night, the US tech sector faced a concentrated sell-off, with the Nasdaq dropping about 5.52% in a single day. Tech stocks like Nvidia, AMD, and Micron weakened sharply. Concerns about AI infrastructure investment returns, valuations, and capital expenditures have resurfaced.
When risk appetite in US stocks starts to shrink, cryptocurrencies naturally find it hard to stay unaffected.
What really deserves attention tonight is the US October non-farm payroll data.
It will be released at 21:30 Beijing time tonight.
Current market expectations:
* Non-farm payroll additions: 65,000
* Previous value: 29,000
* Unemployment rate expectation: 4.2%
This data could influence the market's judgment on the Fed's future interest rate policy.
I think we need to focus on three scenarios tonight:
1️⃣ Employment data stronger than expected: This could reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain high. If the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen simultaneously, the crypto market may continue to be under pressure.
2️⃣ Employment data weaker than expected: Expectations for rate cuts may rise, supporting risk assets, but if worsening employment triggers recession fears, it may not be positive.
3️⃣ Data meets expectations: The market may refocus on capital flows, tech stock performance, and the buying and selling forces within the crypto market itself.
My view:
What we need to be most cautious about now is not how much the market has fallen, but whether there is real buying support after the decline.
If BTC rebounds without volume support and key levels cannot be reclaimed, then short-term rebounds should not be easily considered trend reversals.
Before the non-farm payroll release tonight, I prefer to control positions and wait to observe volume and price changes on the 15-minute and 1-hour candlesticks after the data is out.
The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the discipline to hold back in uncertain times.
Tonight, do you think the non-farm payrolls will bring a rebound to the market or trigger a new round of decline?
#Bitcoin #BTC #Cryptocurrency #NonFarmPayroll #FederalReserve #USStockMarketSeeing the rebound, I actually want to hit the brakes. People tend to mistake increased volume for a recovery, but I suspect this is just a breather.
DefiLlama data shows that DEX trading volume in the past 24 hours was about $11.6 billion, up 2.5% from the previous period, but down 28.9% compared to a week ago. Thinking about it the other way, I don't see this as a recovery signal: the weekly gap is still large; if it's just a rotation, increased volume doesn't mean new money is coming in.
Do you think this 2.5% rebound is enough to change the judgment? Those with opposing views, come debate.