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No matter how good the underlying technology is or how grand the long-term market potential, these belong to future value pricing; meanwhile, asset theft, custody security vulnerabilities, and continuous hacker sell-offs represent immediate, realized risks. Market trends in the short and medium term are determined by capital, confidence, and supply-demand of chips, while long-term technical narratives struggle to withstand selling pressure during confidence collapse phases and cannot stop downward trends.
1. Technical value is a “long-term option,” while theft risk is an “immediate cash loss.”
Technologies like STRK’s STARK zero-knowledge proofs, post-quantum cryptography, independent L1, and BTCFi privacy pools have realization cycles measured in years. The market prices in technical premiums on the condition that investors are willing to wait patiently, bear the time cost, and trust that their held assets will be safely realized in the future. However, asset theft events directly break this premise:
1. Assets held in exchange custody, no matter how advanced the underlying public chain technology is, can still be stolen by hackers; the absence of vulnerabilities in the base chain does not mean there are no vulnerabilities in custody, permissions, or social engineering layers;
2. Stolen tokens become zero-cost sell orders, continuously liquidated on the market, representing a real and persistent supply;
3. Investors will prioritize the question: even if technology surges years later, will my tokens be stolen before then?
When security anxiety outweighs future optimism, long-term technical valuations are the first to be discounted. Technology is a slow variable; theft risk is a fast variable, and fast variables dominate short-term trends.
2. Technology addresses cryptographic risks but cannot cover all security risks.
It is crucial to distinguish two layers of security boundaries:
✅ STRK’s post-quantum technology: addresses the risk of future quantum computers breaking private key signatures, belonging to underlying cryptographic security;
❌ Does not address: exchange permission hijacking, social engineering phishing, contract vulnerabilities, internal permission leaks, or attack-defense vulnerabilities in centralized custody systems.
The Binance theft incident is a typical example: it was not the Starknet chain’s cryptography that was compromised, but the centralized custody system that was breached.
In other words: post-quantum technology defends against quantum threats but cannot prevent current nation-state hackers’ custody attacks.
Investors will not ignore the risk of their tokens being stolen or wiped out on exchanges now just because the chain is future-proof against quantum attacks. The protective scope of technology is limited and cannot cover the market’s most concerning security pain points.
3. When confidence collapses, value narratives fail and valuation logic switches.
In a bull market, the market likes to price in long-term stories: everyone is willing to imagine the huge incremental growth brought by the post-quantum era, BTCFi ecosystem, and independent L1, and willing to overlook unlocking and potential hacker risks.
Once large-scale theft occurs, valuation logic reverses immediately:
From [pricing premiums based on future technical value]
To [discounting and hedging by accounting for all known and unknown current security risks]
The same technology is evaluated completely differently before and after.
Positive factors become muted, negative factors are infinitely amplified. Even if people keep educating about its technical advancement, the first choice of capital is to sell for risk avoidance, not to buy the dip for long-term value. Once consensus loosens, technical fundamentals cannot withstand emotional sell-offs.
4. Chip sell-off resonance creates supply pressure that technical value struggles to absorb.
Taking STRK as an example:
A fixed monthly unlocking of 127 million tokens plus invisible selling pressure from stolen tokens in hackers’ hands creates dual continuous supply.
The new demand brought by the technical ecosystem grows slowly; unlocking and hacker sell-offs are continuous and rigid sell orders.
Demand growth cannot keep up with chip release speed.
Even if everyone recognizes it as the next-generation post-quantum infrastructure, in an environment where buying interest dries up and everyone wants to exit on rallies, without enough incremental capital to absorb the continuous sell orders, the price base can only keep moving down.
No matter how good the value is, it requires buying interest to realize; without buying interest, technical advantages remain only on paper.
5. Summary of the transmission chain
Top platform asset theft → investors realize custody security is unreliable, advanced technology ≠ asset safety → risk appetite declines, capital sells to hedge → buying interest shrinks, liquidity thins → long-term technical narrative attractiveness declines, valuation discounts → downward trend forms and self-reinforces
It’s not that technology has no value, but the logic of realizing technical value is interrupted by asset security crises.Bitcoin Falls Below 76,000: Why Saying "This Time Is Different" Might Be Right Again
In every deep market correction, voices claiming "this time is different" often emerge, which many times are just illusions born of panic. But this time, breaking the critical support at 76,000, the capital structure and market participants have undergone a qualitative change; the difference is real❌ Characteristics of past corrections: previous declines were mostly short-term leverage liquidations and news shocks. Retail funds often entered to bottom-fish after sharp drops; even if there was a brief weakness, ETF incremental funds still flowed in overall, and the core foundation of the bulls remained unshaken, making quick recovery after declines easy🎯 1. The market's main force has shifted to institutional funds, and ETFs have changed from an incremental engine to selling pressure—this is the most crucial change. The biggest driver of this bull market was the continuous net inflow of spot ETFs; now it has turned into net outflow. Once investors initiate redemptions, funds must sell BTC to pay out, creating mechanical selling pressure. The market no longer relies on retail bottom-fishing to support prices; when institutional funds hedge and exit, the absorbing power will be noticeably lacking. 2. The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq has significantly increased, and the "digital gold" safe-haven narrative has failed. In an environment of fluctuating rate cut expectations and U.S. stock market corrections, Bitcoin no longer charts an independent course but has become a high-beta risk asset. Once macro liquidity tightens, it will be sold off first, breaking the past expectation that it would strengthen counter-trend during crises. 3. After breaking support, a large amount of chips are trapped, and the resistance structure has permanently changed. 76,000 has turned from support into a major resistance. Even if a rebound occurs later, reaching this levelBTC fell below 76,000, spot ETFs are running — are institutions also cutting losses?
BTC broke through the key support at 76,000, and spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows. Many are questioning: is this a signal that institutions are collectively cutting losses and fleeing?
❌ First, clarify a key point: ETF outflows ≠ fund managers actively bearish and selling off
The underlying mechanism of ETFs is: retail and institutional investors redeem shares, then the fund needs to sell Bitcoin to fulfill redemptions.
Outflows mean ETF holders choose to take profits or hedge and exit, not necessarily that fund companies like BlackRock are actively shorting Bitcoin. However, it is undeniable that consecutive days of net outflows mean the market's largest incremental buying power is weakening, turning from a "reservoir" of funds into a source of selling pressure, which is a clear signal of declining risk appetite.
🎯 Two core signals
1. Short-term portfolio adjustment and hedging
With US stocks pulling back and interest rate cut expectations wavering, many funds prioritize reducing exposure to high-volatility assets amid uncertainty. Continuous ETF net inflows during a bull market are the main driver pushing the market up; once inflows reverse and outflows persist, buying power significantly weakens, making support levels easy to break.
2. Distinguishing between "short-term redemptions" and "long-term complete exit"
If outflows last only a few days: this is profit-taking after a rise, and funds may flow back after a correction; if net outflows persist for several weeks, it is a very dangerous trend signal, indicating medium- to long-term funds are starting to withdraw, and the logic of this bull market is being challenged.Three targets, three rhythms (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
$SNDK gave a guidance of $12.2-12.6 billion for the next quarter, significantly higher than the disclosed quarter, definitely an upward direction. But the contract fell 8.9%, a stark contrast—the market has also raised the bar. Growth alone is not enough; it must exceed the already elevated expectations to possibly change the price, making fulfillment quite challenging (￣▽￣)"
$BEAT rose 7.4%, with price up 1.5% and open interest up 1.7% in 8 hours, price and positions moderately expanding in the same direction. The increase is not exaggerated, so don’t call it a big position build-up; the quote is still below the 0.10488 high point, participation in recovery exists, and judging by the actual numbers, the 7.4% gain cannot be fully attributed to this position increase (｡･ω･｡)
$JUP rose from 0.2373 to 0.2609, leaning towards the upper part of the 24-hour range, still some distance from the 0.2659 high point. The recovery shows actual displacement, which can be seen as somewhat positive, but no need to rush for a new high—the ability to hold a high quote is more meaningful than quickly touching the upper end. The market has moved on, so the judgment should be updated, don’t trap it with old weak impressions (๑><๑)
The three targets have different rhythms: one with a raised threshold, one with moderate position expansion, and one with initial displacement. Look at the actual numbers, don’t overdramatize it~ (￣ω￣;)On the surface, it looks like just a "pullback," but underneath there's a completely different script. This drop has been so smooth— is it really just driven by news? Watching the market these past two days gives a very subtle feeling: the chat groups are still talking about a "bull retracement," but the market feedback is completely different. BTC slid all the way down from above 81,000 to 75,500, with the bears' momentum barely interrupted over 30 hours, 9 consecutive price gap opportunities realized, and unrealized gains close to 5,000 points. The excitement belongs to others; the weakening structure is our own. Breaking it down, what's really being traded is actually a combination of three things. First, macro expectations were front-run: on November 5, ADP private payrolls increased by 86,000, higher than the market expectation of 69,000, and ISM services employment continued to expand, so funds naturally priced in both October nonfarm payrolls and December rate hike expectations earlier. Once expectations are front-run, risk assets come under pressure first. More importantly, there are moves on the institutional side. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows of about $1.16 billion over three consecutive trading days, with BlackRock's IBIT alone withdrawing $734 million, accounting for over 60%. This is not a minor portfolio adjustment; it's a retreat of marginal buying. ETF outflows often don't immediately reflect in sentiment but gradually drain the spot market's support, which is easily overlooked. Then there's the chain reaction on the leverage side. In the past 24 hours, nearly $1 billion in liquidations occurred across the network, mostly long positions, with BTC longs liquidated$ETH surged from 2300 to 2343.89, trapping a short seller in the middle: a realized loss exceeding $30,000, an unrealized loss of $130,000, and the short position was almost entirely squeezed out. This is not an isolated case but a signal worth pausing to consider—when those "betting on a black swan" start openly admitting they are stuck halfway up, it often indicates that the fuel for this rally is not spot buying but the shorts' own stop-loss orders. Looking at this within the current market structure makes the logic clearer. The $ETH advance from 2300 to 2343.89 is not exaggerated, but it is deadly enough for highly leveraged shorts: with each price level increase, margin call pressure adds another layer, and forced liquidations in turn push prices higher, creating a self-reinforcing squeeze loop. The original author mentioned "all sellers were swept away," which itself is evidence of the market's microstructure—liquidity thins on the upside breakout, and short covering becomes the most convenient buying demand. What is even more intriguing is the shot he dodged. He originally planned to open a $BTC short but ultimately did not, otherwise both positions would have been losing simultaneously, bringing him closer to forced liquidation. This shows that the current market is not an isolated move in a single coin but a correlated squeeze amid an overall risk-on environment. $BTC did not simultaneously give a short signal, which exposes the shorts' fragile judgment: they were betting on a systemic downturn, but the market delivered a bifurcated trend—$ETH strengthening alone, with shorts being picked off one by one. What the crowd underestimates is that these "individual liquidation narratives" are usually dismissed as emotional noise Billion-Dollar Liquidation Night: The Triple Logic Behind BTC Dropping Below 76,000
Bitcoin broke through the critical support level of 76,000, triggering massive long position liquidations overnight. Tens of billions in funds were cleared amid intense volatility. This round of decline is not caused by a single news shock but is the result of the resonance of three forces.
🎯 Logic One: Decline in macro risk appetite, BTC redefined as a high-beta risk asset
With cooling expectations for rate cuts and a pullback in the US tech sector, the market began actively reducing high-risk positions. As ETF funds deeply intervene, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq continues to rise. In times of crisis, Bitcoin does not act as an independent safe haven but instead becomes a priority asset for liquidation. The short-term safe haven narrative of "digital gold" fails.
🎯 Logic Two: Death spiral of leveraged funds, liquidations further amplify the decline
A large number of long positions crowded in earlier. After breaking the important cost threshold of 76,000, a chain reaction of forced liquidations was triggered. The liquidated orders pushed prices lower, inducing more stop-loss exits, forming a negative feedback loop in a short time that accelerated the downward trend. This is the most direct driver of the current liquidation wave.
🎯 Logic Three: Insufficient buying support, sentiment reversal after losing support level
In previous pullbacks, bottom-fishing funds would quickly enter to support prices; however, after this breakdown, off-exchange funds chose to wait and see, lacking enough counterparties to absorb selling pressure. The 76,000 level turned from support into strong resistance for subsequent rebounds. Many short-term traders were trapped, creating sustained selling pressure from forced exits.The Nasdaq tech stock plunge has directly slammed the crypto market hard: within just a few hours, over $1 billion in liquidations occurred across the network, BTC fell below $75,000, and altcoins suffered massive losses.
The capital logic behind this is extremely brutal; once understood, you won’t blindly liquidate or mindlessly bottom-fish at this point:
1. The AI-driven US stock market and Crypto are essentially backed by the same batch of high-leverage capital from Silicon Valley and Wall Street. When tech stocks face capital tightening due to AI’s long monetization cycle and disappointing earnings, long positions in traditional markets are forced to be liquidated. To cover margin calls in US stocks, the most liquid and 24/7 withdrawable crypto assets become the priority "ATM withdrawal machines" for forced selling and cashing out.
2. The trigger for the plunge is macroeconomic, but the deep pit is caused by derivatives liquidation. The market accumulated a large amount of long leverage below $80,000; when the US stock market opened and spot selling pressure hit stop losses, the liquidation engine indiscriminately sold at market price, creating a downward spiral of "sell-off - liquidation - further crash."
3. A big drop is never the end of the trend; chips are squeezed from high-leverage retail and short-term funds back into ETF spot channels and long-term institutions.
There is no systemic cliff in macro liquidity; the phased pullback in US stocks has cleared Crypto leverage, forming a "no-leverage hard bottom."
Don’t contribute liquidity to the liquidation wave. Once leverage is cleaned out, the market will become lighter.
#BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 BTC Breaks Below 76000 Deep Review: Why the "Safe-Haven Asset" Dies Alongside the Nasdaq This Time
Bitcoin broke through the critical 76000 support level, resonating with the Nasdaq in a joint sell-off. The once deeply ingrained narrative of digital gold and safe-haven asset is once again facing serious scrutiny. When the crisis hits, it did not show an independent rally; instead, it became a high-risk asset prioritized for selling.
❌ Three Core Logic Layers Behind the Resonant Decline
1. After institutional entry, BTC's correlation with the Nasdaq surged significantly
With the launch of spot ETFs and large-scale holdings by companies like MSTR, Bitcoin has deeply integrated into the traditional financial system, sharing the same pool of risk capital as tech stocks. When liquidity is loose, they rise together; when panic arrives, institutions prioritize selling high-volatility assets to raise cash, with BTC being the first to go. The correlation coefficient keeps rising, severely weakening its safe-haven attribute.
2. The negative leverage cycle amplifies the decline
A large amount of long leverage piled up at high levels, and breaking the 76000 support triggered a chain of forced liquidations, with liquidation orders further pushing the price down. This creates a death spiral of selling the more it falls, with drawdowns far exceeding those of ordinary assets.
3. People confuse "long-term inflation hedge" with "short-term safe haven"
A fixed supply and resistance to fiat overissuance belong to long-term logic; but in short-term liquidity crises and collective market panic scenarios, Bitcoin lacks stable cash flow and is highly volatile, so funds do not treat it as a safe harbor. Gold remains the more recognized safe-haven choice.Bitcoin Falls Below 76,000 — Is the Digital Gold Narrative Completely Shattered?
BTC breaks below the critical support of 76,000. In the context of a synchronized pullback in the US stock market, Bitcoin follows risk assets down sharply, moving in the exact opposite direction of the safe-haven asset gold. The market has begun intense debate: Has the long-standing digital gold narrative become invalid? ❌ The core contradiction emerges, challenging the foundation of the digital gold theory: a fixed total supply of 21 million, decentralization, used to counter fiat currency oversupply, and serving as a safe-haven asset in times of crisis. However, this round of decline exposes fatal flaws: 1. The price is highly correlated with risk assets; once market panic and risk appetite decline, Bitcoin is the first to be sold off by funds, failing to exhibit an independent safe-haven behavior, instead resembling a highly volatile tech speculative asset. 2. Volatility far exceeds that of gold: gold remains relatively stable during turbulent phases, while Bitcoin frequently suffers large drawdowns. Such extreme volatility makes it difficult to serve as a reliable store of value. 3. A large portion of funds come from ETFs and leveraged traders; short-term capital inflows and outflows cause severe price disturbances. When institutional funds exit, selling pressure quickly intensifies. 🎯 A dialectical perspective: The narrative is not entirely gone, nor is the scarcity logic completely invalidated. The long-term logic of fixed supply and inflation resistance still has believers. But on a short-term trading level, its "safe-haven attribute" is unstable. In an environment of rising inflation expectations and prolonged monetary easing, people are willing to treat it as a scarce asset to position in; however, during collective market deleveraging and financial crisis-like panic, it is treated as a high-risk asset and sold off first.#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
As soon as Moderna's cancer vaccine data leaked, the stock price plummeted 25%. Is it that the vaccine is ineffective, or is the market just overreacting?
Pharaoh directly said the vaccine hasn't collapsed; it's Wall Street's "expectation bubble" that burst first.
Let's first look at the actual data. The personalized melanoma vaccine jointly developed by Moderna and Merck has solid Phase 3 clinical data: combined with Keytruda, it reduces the risk of cancer recurrence or death by 42%, distant metastasis risk by 38%, and has a two-year recurrence-free survival rate of 82%, compared to 70% in the control group. This data is absolutely milestone-level in the field of cancer treatment.
So why did the stock price crash? Two reasons.
First, expectations were set too high. In August this year, the two companies only announced "significant positive results" without disclosing specific numbers. Moderna's stock price had already surged over 500% this year, with the market fully pricing in a "miracle drug." When the full data came out, the 42% reduction, although excellent, was lower than the earlier Phase 2 data of 49%, making investors feel it was "not explosive enough."
Second, the way the leak happened was too sensational. There’s something I’ve never quite figured out. Are prediction markets considered finance or gambling?
Arkansas basically asked this question on behalf of everyone this time. The accusation is that Kalshi told users the platform was legal and safe, but didn’t mention that there are professional traders involved, insider trading risks, and that people under 21 can also open accounts.
Then they issued two fines: pay the owed taxes, and up to $10,000 fine for each violation.
The phrase "each violation" is pretty serious — it’s not just a $10,000 fine, but counted and fined item by item.
But the funniest part is the age. Over at $BTC, no one asks how old you are; you can transfer as soon as you open a wallet. Here, they have to check if you’re an adult first. This time, the prediction market has been restrained by the state government. The lawsuit in Arkansas is very specific: Kalshi claimed to users that the platform is legal and safe but failed to disclose the risks of professional traders' participation and insider trading, while also allowing users under 21 years old to use related products. They demand two things: to recover unpaid taxes during the state's operation period and to impose a civil fine of up to $10,000 for each violation according to state law.
Note the fine structure. It is not a one-time fine but charged "per violation." The number of users, promotional claims, account opening processes—any link deemed a violation can be counted separately. The real exposure depends on how finely the regulator wants to slice it.
Why target age and taxes? Because they bypass the hardest qualitative issue. The prediction market has always been stuck on "is this finance or gambling?" The state government doesn't need to win this definitional battle first; just proving you target minors and haven't paid the required taxes is enough to shut you down or make you pay. This is the lowest-cost offensive route and the easiest for other states to replicate.
For the secondary market, mainstream assets like $BTC and $ETH are almost unaffected since they trade liquidity and macro expectations. The truly sensitive ones are small-cap assets propped up by prediction narratives and scenarios relying on platforms settled in $USDC to drive volume.
Here’s a question worth pondering: if prediction markets ultimately fall under gambling regulation, can they still maintain their current pricing efficiency? Arthur Hayes warns: AI giant IPOs may trigger liquidity crisis, crypto market could be impacted. Former BitMEX CEO and current Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes recently issued a stern warning, pointing out a dangerous transmission chain forming between the AI capital market and crypto liquidity. Hayes believes that the upcoming mega IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will list with extremely low float, followed by massive dilution when insiders’ lock-up periods expire. He estimates that by June 2027, Anthropic’s dilution rate could reach as high as 83%, making it difficult for the stock price to sustain an upward trend. The mechanism Hayes describes is not uncommon among venture-backed tech companies: an artificially small float creates scarcity, driving up the IPO valuation. Once employees and early investors are allowed to sell, oversupply will crush the stock price. For AI giants that have invested tens of billions of dollars in computing power and talent, a post-IPO stock price crash is far from an isolated market event; it will affect the credit markets increasingly financing AI infrastructure. From IPO breakdown to credit contagion Hayes’ core argument is that a failed AI IPO—that is, a stock price falling below the issue price—will widen credit spreads on AI-related corporate debt. Many such companies finance data centers, GPU clusters, and acquisitions through debt. If the stock market signals distress, lenders will demand higher risk premiums, forcing companies to shrink their balance sheets. For long-termCan't even hold 76000? Bitcoin might be different this time
76000 USD is a very critical cost support zone in this cycle, concentrating a large amount of recent entry capital's position cost. After the support was broken, many realized: this correction is essentially different from previous ordinary oscillating corrections. ❌ Core differences from past corrections 1. Obvious absence of buying power
In the past, after a rapid dip, bottom-fishing funds would quickly enter to support the price; but this decline did not trigger a strong buying surge, it is a slow decline driven by exhausted buying power, not a one-time panic sell-off. Market confidence is slowly eroding, and the rebound lacks sustainability. 2. Institutional fund flow reversal, spot ETF funds shifted from continuous net inflow to temporary net outflow, showing wavering institutional sentiment. Coupled with large holders like MSTR whose floating profits are continuously narrowing, if the price continues to drop, there is a potential risk of forced selling, which would amplify the downward impact. 3. The vulnerability of altcoins has been fully exposed; in a weakening market environment, illiquid narrative coins will fall far more than BTC. Like CORE, which faces exchange delisting and long-term inflationary selling pressure, once the market trend weakens, it can easily accelerate towards zombification with very weak risk resistance. 🎯 Two key signals to watch closely ✅ Whether it can quickly reclaim above 76000: if the support is recovered in a short time, it indicates only a short-term shakeout; if it effectively breaks below and continues to operate under 76000, it means a large number of short-term holders are trapped collectively, which will create a heavy burden for future recovery Last night the contract surged so fiercely, did you think big funds were frantically buying? These institutions are completely two-faced! $BTC endured outflows for a full four days (tens of millions outflowing daily in previous days), but yesterday finally saw a turnaround with a net inflow of $9.63 million. However, looking closely at the details, BlackRock (IBIT) withdrew nearly $26 million, while Fidelity (FBTC) smashed in $30 million to cover it. This clearly shows internal disagreements among institutions. Although they started tentatively taking the position, the old foxes are very cautious. Looking at $ETH, there was heavy bleeding in the past few days; yesterday showed a superficial net inflow of $23,300, but don’t rush to celebrate. BlackRock (ETHA) alone dumped nearly 100 million in a single day. Grayscale is buying in, but BlackRock is frantically selling, indicating institutions are distributing at highs during the rebound. This ETH rally won’t last long. The funniest is $SOL — yesterday’s data showed zero across all metrics. A few days ago there were daily outflows, now institutions don’t even pretend anymore and are completely lying flat. This means SOL is now purely retail traders hyping contracts with no big money backing it. In summary, contracts reflect sentiment, spot is the real money’s trump card. Although the Bitcoin ETF has stopped falling, disagreements remain large. Don’t blindly rush just because the candlestick is up; understanding institutional intentions is the key. Do you think Bitcoin can firmly hold 80,000 this time? Are you holding long or short positions now? #NonfarmPayrolls are coming, can employment data strengthen December rate hike expectations? $BTC $ETH $SOL Moscow Exchange Launches Crypto Trading: A Compliance Increment, Not a Major Bull Run
On December 1, Moscow Exchange will list BTC, ETH, and USDT, with trading hours from 06:50 to 23:50 Moscow time. Clearing will be handled by the National Settlement Depository, with same-day or next-day settlement, and swap tools provided to manage liquidity. Retail investors must pass a test first and can buy up to 300,000 rubles (about 3,700 USD) worth of crypto assets per year through a single broker; there is no limit for qualified investors. The outlook is neutral to slightly bullish, but there is a clear divergence between bulls and bears.
Russia integrating crypto assets into mainstream securities trading infrastructure effectively opens a compliant entry channel for domestic funds, representing an incremental increase for local BTC and ETH buying and practical use cases for USDT. However, the quota cap positions it as a controlled market with limited retail capacity, making it difficult to generate a global-scale capital surge in the short term.
A greater risk to watch: Moscow Exchange and the National Settlement Depository were sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in June 2024, and since USDT is issued by Tether and can freeze wallets on sanction lists, holding USDT on this platform carries a real risk of passive freezing.
My view: Treat this as a mid-term tracking item for Russia’s compliance narrative rather than a reason to chase gains; for the USDT part, prioritize monitoring custody and on-chain freezing paths, and do not consider the quota-limited, sanction-affected buying as the main market driver.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Bitcoin spot price has experienced a double severe shock over the past week—first, a major exchange disclosed a historic-level security breach involving $6.3 billion, followed by the 2026 U.S. midterm elections ending with an unexpected Democratic sweep of both the House and Senate. Despite a technical correction of about 10% from the September peak, Bitcoin still shows strong buying support within the core support range of $76,000 to $78,000. Speculative chips deeply cleansed On-chain data shows a drastic reset in market position structure. The profit supply ratio of short-term holders once climbed to an extremely greedy level above 97.5% in early October, but has now plummeted to about 38%, indicating that the vast majority of recent buyers are currently at a floating loss, and the previously accumulated speculative bubble has been fully digested. Bitcoin is currently precisely retesting the key breakout point from August with increased volume. The real market average of active investors is around $77,700, and the cost line for short-term holders is near $75,700, both providing technical buffers below the spot price. As long as Bitcoin remains solidly above these core averages, the upward structure built since August remains intact. Leverage clearing, short squeeze fuel accumulation This round of correction has thoroughly cleared the high-leverage long positions accumulated since August, significantly reducing the systemic risk of cascading liquidations triggering panic selling. Meanwhile, short positions above the market are expanding against the trend, with the largest cluster of forced short liquidations densely concentrated near the $87,000 level, highly coinciding with the September peak. Once the priceA quick overview of the current crypto situation. $ETH: Spot ETF saw a net outflow of 1.61 billion in October, RWA dropped another 2.6 billion; at Devcon, developers openly criticized, community fractures exposed, 72% of supply still under quantum-resistant migration pressure. On the technical side, block time confirmed to shrink to 12 seconds, a rare consolation. $BTC: After the election, it bounced past 80,000, liquidating 300 million shorts; but regulation is stalled by the election, Riot sold nearly 79% of holdings to shift to AI, hashrate price dropped 17.54% pressuring miners, hacker incidents also dampened sentiment. $SOL: Schroders' 1.1 trillion asset management went on-chain, monthly transactions hit a record 3.38 billion, over 1000 days without interruption, Stripe stablecoin payments launched, SKR repurchased and burned 1.2 million; unfortunately, hackers laundered 81% of stolen SOL via THORChain. Mid-term ranking: SOL has stronger fundamentals, BTC continues to grind, ETH first endures capital outflows. Hold your chips steady and wait for the market to turn. (Don’t rush to take sides, watch the data first!) #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #索尼Q2营业利润增长45%，上调全年业绩指引 Can you still hold CORE? Three data points tell you whether to run or hold
Many holders are torn inside: should they keep holding or exit directly? No need to rely on feelings, focus on the following three core data sets. 📊 Three key observation data 1. Bithumb is about to delist trading; if more exchanges follow, trading volume will continue to shrink, order book depth will thin, and large sell orders will cause slippage to expand sharply. ✅ Judgment: If liquidity continues to deteriorate, prioritize reducing positions. Once liquidity dies, even if there is unrealized profit on paper, it will be hard to cash out. 2. Token supply pressure: block rewards have been continuously released for 81 years, constantly adding new chips, and long-term inflationary selling pressure will not disappear. Currently, there is no rigid burn mechanism to hedge supply. ✅ Judgment: The supply issue has no solution and will continue to suppress the coin price long-term, making it difficult to enter a major bull market. 3. Ecosystem value capture data: on-chain Gas revenue is minimal, BTC staking business is operating genuinely, but the yield is hard to transmit to the CORE token; meanwhile, Babylon and Merlin keep dividing the BTCFi sector market share, and ecosystem growth is below expectations. ✅ Judgment: The narrative remains, but fundamentals cannot support the valuation; this is a typical case of the business surviving while the token is under pressure. 👉 Suitable for gradual exit: liquidity continues to worsen, no implemented buyback and burn plan, TVL keeps declining; if any two conditions are met, do not keep hoping for a reversal. 👉 Can gamble with a small position: limited to a very small position, must simultaneously have: delisting wave stops, real burn implemented, and BTCFi sector sees a comprehensive major rally #美国中选改变美伊预期，布伦特跌破95美元
Brothers, with the midterm election boot dropping, the oil market has directly turned upside down. Brent crude plunged 8.67% in a single day, closing at $94.62, hitting an intraday low of $93.22, retreating over $20 from the October 30 high of $114.29 in just three trading days.
The logic is simple: the geopolitical premium has been "squeezed out."
The Democrats took both chambers, Senate leader Schumer directly stated "the Iran war must end," and clearly intends to use funding powers to block the White House's war budget. Vice President Pence even blamed the Republican defeat directly on this war. The market sees that Trump's room to escalate the conflict is locked down, and the previous over $20 premium betting on war expansion has been completely wiped out in three days.
But don't think the oil market is peaceful now. The Democrats truly controlling the "purse strings" won't happen until January next year, while the White House might accelerate actions before the new Congress is sworn in. Meanwhile, U.S. distillate inventories have dropped to the lowest since 2003, and the supply side's tight balance remains unchanged.
The oil price center shifts down in the short term, but the geopolitical volatility has not been fully resolved. The midterm election changed expectations but did not change reality. $BTC $ETH $SOL Attention CORE dollar-cost averaging investors: Adding positions at this point might mean you're catching falling knives
Many dollar-cost averaging investors see the price has dropped significantly and start continuously adding positions to lower their average cost. However, continuing to dollar-cost average in the current environment essentially means repeatedly catching falling knives❌ 1. Bithumb delisting event impacts liquidity: CORE trading stopped on November 30, and withdrawal channels closed on December 30. If other exchanges follow suit, market depth will shrink further, and the risk of slippage when selling will sharply increase in the future. 2. Continuous block reward release for 81 years, with a constant influx of new tokens suppressing the price long-term; the original burn mechanism has been adjusted, and fees are no longer used for deflationary burns, leaving the token lacking intrinsic value support. 3. Intense competition in the BTCFi sector, with Babylon and Merlin continuously capturing funds; CORE ecosystem growth falls short of expectations, and narrative benefits have long faded. 🎯 Dollar-cost averaging suits fundamentally solid assets that can generate cash flow over the long term, but it is not suitable for narrative tokens facing liquidity crises and tokenomics flaws. Persisting with dollar-cost averaging here only increases your position size, and once stuck in a zombie market, funds will be locked for a long time, incurring huge opportunity costs. 💡 Signals suitable for restarting dollar-cost averaging ✅ The exchange delisting wave stops, and liquidity no longer deteriorates ✅ Project implements verifiable buyback/burn plans to hedge long-term inflation ✅ On-chain TVL and active users recover, attracting sector funds again 💡 Takeaway: Don't rely solely on the mindset of "buy more when the price drops more." The sharp drop in the US stock market 📉, as long as the US stock market crashes, no financial market can remain unaffected. Today, Bitcoin's rebound was directly dragged down, $BTC directly drew a door (sharp drop). Previous posts have been reminding to build positions and buy spot. This round might replicate the 2020 trend, violently dumping to harvest until the last wave before starting the next round of market movement. This round will not replicate the previous round's pattern of pulling back to the neckline and then stretching.I suddenly realized, after the past US midterm elections, when Bitcoin hit bottom and when it rebounded
2014: hit bottom after 71 days, then the market started to rise.
2018: hit bottom after 39 days, then the market started to rise.
2022: hit bottom after 13 days, then the market started to rise.
Yesterday, Bitcoin rose from $77,000 to around $81,000, then today it dropped to about $75,500. Technically, this is normal, possible, and not absurd.
2026: How many days do you think it will take to hit bottom before the market starts to rise?CORE Holders Self-Test: Can Your Position Withstand Another 70% Drop?
Many people buy the dip assuming "it has already dropped so much, the downside is limited," but CORE still has the potential for a significant further decline. It's worth asking yourself first: if the price drops another 70%, can you handle it?
❌ The Root Risks Remain Unresolved
Inflation pressure from token releases has persisted for 81 years, on-chain yields are hard to pass on to the token, the BTCFi sector is split between Babylon and Merlin, and liquidity is gradually shrinking. These core issues have no substantial solutions yet. A huge historical drop does not mean it can't fall further.
🎯 3 Self-Test Questions
1. If it drops another 70%, will this loss directly affect your living expenses? If yes, your position is too heavy and you need to reduce exposure immediately to avoid risk.
2. If the price continues to slowly decline or consolidate at the bottom over the next two to three years, can you hold on and resist the urge to keep buying the dip?
3. If exchanges further delist trading pairs and liquidity dries up, causing large sell orders to suffer massive slippage, can you accept the difficulty of exiting smoothly?
💡 Insight
Don't judge the bottom solely by the size of the drop. For tokens like this, the safest rule is: only invest money you can afford to lose entirely without concern. If you can't handle further deep declines, you shouldn't continue holding or adding to your position now. On November 5, a former FBI agent pleaded guilty to telecom fraud and money laundering. Prosecutors said he used wallet credentials collected during investigations to steal about $2.47 million in cryptocurrency.
What’s even more notable is the scope: these credentials involved 35 separate investigations, through which he completed about 100 fraudulent transfers. The affected wallets were not only those of suspects but also wallets controlled by hostile nation-state actors, as well as wallets the FBI itself created for operations. It wasn’t just money that was compromised, but multiple investigation leads, intelligence sources, and methods.
The mechanism is simple. Ownership of on-chain assets is essentially a set of credentials that can sign transactions. Whoever holds the credentials can transfer funds; there is no counter, no review, no second signature. KYC, risk control, and compliance checks guard against external accounts; once credentials leak internally, all these safeguards are bypassed. And on-chain transfers are irreversible, so by the time the theft is discovered, the assets are already elsewhere.
So this is not a vulnerability of any single platform but a common weak point of all centralized trust: when you entrust assets to a process, the people within that process become your actual custodians. The more valuable $BTC and $ETH become, the greater the temptation at this position.
One point to consider: he will be sentenced on March 4, 2027, with a maximum of 20 years. Accountability takes three years, but transferring $2.47 million only takes a few minutes. This speed gap is the hardest challenge for the industry to fix.Review of the timing patterns for bottoms during midterm election years
1. 2018 (rate hike cycle not yet ended)
Stage pre-election low: late October; the final true bottom was delayed until after the election (end of December)
2. 2022 (rate hike expectations marginally peaked)
Full-year bottom: mid-October (about 3 weeks before the election), bottom formed early, rebound confirmed after the election
1. If following the 2022-style pre-election bottom:
First a quick pullback, hitting a stage low in mid-October, then quickly stabilizing and rebounding
2. If following the 2018-style, October is only a stage low, the second wave of decline comes after the November election, and the lowest point of the year appears in December
Just a personal 💡 share~ Not investment advice
@八佰哥爱理财 Take a look at this… Preserving capital and holding on is the only chance. Why is it said that CORE being "neither dead nor alive" is the worst outcome?
Many people think: as long as it doesn't directly go to zero, there is still hope. But for holders, being stuck in a zombie state of neither dead nor alive for a long time is often more tormenting than a one-time crash to zero❌ A one-time crash to zero: the pain is instantaneous, investors can quickly accept the loss, cut their losses completely and exit, freeing both funds and emotions. But being neither dead nor alive is a prolonged drain: the chain still produces blocks, the token still has minimal trading, giving the illusion that "there is still hope for a reversal," yet the market never really recovers🎯 1 Funds are locked for a long time, opportunity cost is extremely high, with 81 years of continuous inflation releasing chips, combined with competitors continuously diverting funds, making it hard to have a big market move. Funds trapped in CORE miss other opportunities in the sector, draining year after year. 2 Liquidity slowly shrinks, exit barriers get higher and higher, trading volume becomes thinner and thinner, exchanges gradually delist trading pairs, and selling later will incur huge slippage. The longer it goes, the harder it is to get out, slowly evolving from "shallow losses" to completely having value but no market.
3 Constantly breeding illusions, repeatedly tempting retail investors to add positions and bottom-fish, because the project is not completely dead, occasional small rebounds and positive rumors appear, continuously luring holders to keep adding and lowering their cost basis, the more they add, the heavier the position, and losses keep expanding💡 What investors fear most is not a clear death signal, but this half-dead illusion. When the project's fundamentals cannot improve and inflationary selling pressure persists, relying only on the chain still running to support the market, beware of falling into a long-term zombie trap.Global markets just staged a rally that looked, on the surface, like relief at the removal of uncertainty. US equities, gold and $BTC all climbed together, and the easy explanation wrote itself: the bad news had become good news, and the world exhaled. That reading misses the mechanism entirely. The clearer signal came from JD Vance, who framed the defeat bluntly: the war was lost because conflict pushed oil prices higher and drove inflation up, a point he said even Trump acknowledged. Once markCORE's BTC staking is real, but the token being worthless is also true
Many retail investors are attracted by CORE's Bitcoin staking narrative, but there is a very critical disconnect here: the BTC staking business truly exists, yet this system does not transmit ecological value to the CORE token itself. ✅Fact: The Core chain has indeed implemented a non-custodial BTC staking function, allowing users to stake Bitcoin to earn returns. The BTC staking at the technical level is not false advertising, and this was the foundation for it to brand itself as BTCFi initially. 1 The value generated by staking 1 BTC is difficult to capture in the CORE token. Although staking CORE is required to obtain higher-tier staking rewards, the ecosystem's fees and staking income are not designed with a rigid mechanism for continuous repurchase and burning of CORE. 2 The token has a continuous release period of 81 years, with ongoing inflationary selling pressure continuously diluting holders' equity. Even if BTC staking is operating within the ecosystem, the supply pressure of new tokens exists long-term. 3 Competition in the sector intensifies, with Baby and Merl diverting a large amount of BTCFi funds; combined with liquidity shrinkage and some exchanges delisting trading pairs, this further suppresses the token price. A painful phenomenon: the on-chain BTC staking business is still running, but the market value of the CORE token continues to decline, resulting in a split scenario where the business is alive but the token keeps depreciating. When investing in narrative-driven projects, it is essential to distinguish: whether the project function is real ≠ whether the token has value support. The business can be real, but if the token economic model design is lackingSpot $BTC ETF has seen a cumulative net redemption of 1.042 billion in this round, with total net assets shrinking to 98.1 billion, showing a clear outflow on the ETF side.
Looking at the capital flow: Strategy bought 811 $BTC, spending 65.5 million; meanwhile, it repurchased preferred shares worth 208 million.
Calculating the net: 208 million minus 65.5 million, a net withdrawal of about 140 million. The scale of coin purchases is actually lower than the buyback.
This indicates that the treasury's increased holdings are more like position adjustments, not new external funds; sporadic buy orders cannot support the ETF outflow.
$BTC has been fluctuating between 77,000 and 80,000, with weak support. To break through the 80,000 mark, sustained capital inflow is needed.
$BTC Risk capital is still willing to rush into small-cap tokens to chase gains in a dollar-strong environment, but the cash-out pressure concentrates at 0.354, causing the price to fall back to 0.2655, with an intraday low reaching 0.252. The slight intraday gain masks the unrealized losses on these high-chasing positions. There is a long-observed correlation between a strong dollar and the cashing out of highly elastic altcoins; this chain cannot be defined as a causal driver but merely raises the threshold for risk asset liquidation. During periods of dollar strength, capital compresses the risk budget allocated to thematic tokens, whose price increases heavily depend on continuous inflows of incremental hot money. After external liquidity preference tightens, high-position chips are more likely to choose to exit and realize profits. Positions trapped at high levels need to first see an environment improvement brought by a shift toward dollar easing to have a chance for recovery; a single token's own buying pressure rarely can independently counteract cross-market risk contraction. The expected real interest rate of U.S. Treasury bonds forms a second cross-market transmission path. During phases of rising rate expectations, the valuation framework for forward premium assets continues to compress. CARDS pricing carries a large amount of forward premium driven by thematic narratives and is more sensitive to changes in rate expectations than mainstream crypto assets. Rate expectations only change the premium level the market is willing to pay; they are not the direct trigger for this round's peak pullback. When rate expectations adjust downward, the market is willing to assign higher valuation space to thematic assets, giving high-position trapped holdings a chance to reduce losses through risk appetite recovery; if rate expectations continue to rise, each rebound will encounter more proactive cash-out pressure, and the rebound space will be continuously suppressed.This morning I saw "Nasdaq 100 expected to lose $1.8 trillion," and my first reaction was: How can a single vote burn so much money out of thin air?
Then I realized, this money isn't actually in anyone's account; it's always been tied to the idea that "AI data centers will keep being built." Now someone is telling the market that this might not get approved, and once that thought loosens, the money disappears.
Every time $BTC drops, everyone looks for bad news, but in most cases, it turns out the expectation collapsed, not that someone actually dumped the market. Don't rush to bottom-fish yet; see if the $1.8 trillion is panic or a repricing.Many people skimmed past this breaking news: The Nasdaq 100 index is expected to lose $1.8 trillion today. What triggered this is not earnings reports or the Federal Reserve, but an expectation — a Democratic landslide victory that could hinder AI data center construction.
This statement deserves a closer look. The past two years of U.S. stock market gains have largely been bet on AI capital expenditures. Chips, servers, electricity, cooling, land — the entire chain is supported by the same phrase: computing power is never enough, data centers must always be built. The companies with the largest weights in the Nasdaq 100 have valuations that include this incremental growth.
So the $1.8 trillion lost is not profit, but imagination. What the market fears is the phrase "unable to build" — data centers are capital-intensive, long-cycle, and heavily regulated businesses. Where the power comes from, whether land permits are approved, whether environmental assessments pass — if any link is blocked, the capex curve must be revised downward. When capex is cut, valuations collapse first, not current earnings.
What does this mean for the crypto market? $BTC’s correlation with the Nasdaq index fluctuates, but its relationship with risk appetite has never broken. When the AI narrative weakens, the first to suffer are altcoins and computing power tokens propped up by the AI concept; mainstream assets like $ETH and $SOL are more dragged down by liquidity, their own fundamentals remain intact.
One point worth considering: if AI data centers are truly blocked by political cycles, the premise of "computing power scarcity" will actually be reinforced. Short-term valuation cuts and long-term pricing are two different things; these are not contradictory, just different time scales.The most vulnerable aren't actually BTC, but those small-cap coins that seem to "no longer fall." Are you sure that's really the bottom, and not the starting point of the next downhill? This feeling was especially obvious when watching the market today: BTC and ETH still have big funds willing to buy at key levels, while the rebounds of several small-cap coins have volumes as thin as a layer of fog, dispersing at the slightest breeze. Let's start with AKE, whose price is slipping down every day, dropping a little each day like a dull knife cutting flesh, yet some still think "it must be the bottom after falling so much." The problem is, the real bottom of altcoins is never formed by falling prices, but by piled-up buy orders. Now the chips are so scattered and trapped, with people above waiting to break even, who will push it up? Who will buy when it rises? Not to mention the tail risk of delisting hanging over it, blindly bottom-fishing in such a structure has extremely low cost-effectiveness. BEAT is more interesting, moving sideways at a high level, as if waiting for people to get on board. This pattern indeed easily reminds people of the previous script of rising high then consolidating before moving again, but sideways itself does not necessarily mean upward. If there are many orders below trying to catch a rebound, it might instead become fuel for a breakdown. Sideways is a neutral signal, not a bullish one, which many people confuse. FOGO is a standard small rebound in a downtrend. After falling for so long, a single bullish candle makes people want to rush in, but it is more likely just washing out short-term short positions chasing the rebound; the signal of trend reversal has not yet appeared. Looking at these three together, you can actually sense the change in capital preference: big coins still have support, small coins are left only with speculation. When risk appetite contracts, funds are not spread evenly but flow toward higher certainty.I happened to see Brother Ba Bai's position, losing $3.81 million and still adding to the long positions. I think I understand this strategy now.
The account is indeed eye-catching: a cumulative loss of over $3.81 million, a return of -86.78%, and a win rate of only 10.9% in the last 30 days. At its peak, four accounts lost more than 30 million, and now they are slowly recovering.
The positions are heavily long, with three trades totaling $4.54 million. Two $BTC trades: the old position at 67701 has an unrealized profit of 375%, the new position at 77997 has an unrealized profit of 59%; one ETH trade at 2289 with an unrealized profit of 94%. Leverage ranges from 17 to 20 times, the margin rate is at least 943%, the liquidation price is empty, and the account is far from liquidation.
The idea is to buy on dips, buy more as the price falls, and split the positions. Not aiming for a high win rate, tolerating multiple losses, and relying on big trades to recover losses; the 67701 trade was picked up during a big drop and has been held until now.
Positioning sense and margin discipline are real skills. But the -86% also shows the old problem remains: from earning $1.59 million to losing $3.83 million, winning but not withdrawing, and giving back even more. There is also a BTC full position at 19x leverage, most afraid that a single spike could drag down the entire account.
The market also suits his style: BTC holding around 80000, $ETH recovering, SOL weaker, ZEC the most volatile. He only trades BTC and ETH, which is somewhat restrained. Tonight the Bank of England rate decision and initial jobless claims, tomorrow night the nonfarm payrolls; if it really crashes, he will most likely keep adding.
#索尼Q2营业利润增长45%，上调全年业绩指引 #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ A trader kept raising the average price on $ETH from 2300 to 2343, but chose to hold firm without cutting losses during the drop to 2225. Now, even with the rebound, he is still being suppressed, with an unrealized loss of $160,000. More striking is his confession: it's not that he doesn't want to exit, but that he is unwilling to add more margin and increase his position, fearing forced liquidation. This statement reveals the most genuine current sentiment — the bulls are not unafraid, but too scared to act. 😰 Here lies a structural signal overlooked by most: the real risk is not the unrealized loss itself, but that position management has failed. Opening at 2300 and adding at 2343 pushed the cost higher by his own hand; failing to stop loss at 2225 shows the decision-making chain has shifted from "judging direction" to "resisting the market." When a trader starts consoling himself with "the unrealized loss is okay," it often means he is mentally preparing for the next forced exit. $BTC not opening a short position yesterday was called "lucky" by him, which ironically exposes the same problem: the scenario of two positions under pressure is just one step away from playing out. Even more intriguing is his handling of $ZEC. Although he sensed the market was off and closed the short, he shorted again because "volume didn't keep up," only to get stuck. This is not an isolated case but the most typical trap in the current market: using volume as a confirmation signal, yet repeatedly getting slapped in an environment of shrinking liquidity. Volume lags price, and by the time it "catches up," the best positions are gone. The painful rebound of $ETH is precisely because bears and bulls are exhausting each other in the same market move. My judgment is, this kind of trading...Overnight, the US stock market closed up 1.6%, but semiconductors were under pressure against the trend: Micron, SanDisk, and Marvell all fell more than 7%, and Nvidia also followed down. On the surface, it looks like sector rotation, but behind it seems more like the market is repricing the "expansion speed" of AI infrastructure.
The trigger came from the US midterm elections. The Democrats won the Texas governor's race, and the new governor previously advocated pausing new data center approvals until a stricter regulatory framework is implemented. This means that a previously favorable assumption embedded in AI chip valuations—that tech giants would continue high capital expenditures and data centers would expand smoothly—is now facing political variables.
Pressure on power, water usage, and community capacity is shifting from engineering issues to election topics. The market's concern is not that existing computing demand will suddenly disappear, but that the approval pace for future incremental projects may slow and costs may rise. Projects already signed and under construction still have momentum, but the certainty of new investments is declining.
Therefore, this round of decline looks more like a discounting of the slope of AI infrastructure expansion rather than a collapse in computing demand. Going forward, focus should be on tech giants' capital expenditure guidance and the actual implementation of data center approvals in various states. The AI narrative is not over; the pricing focus is shifting from "how fast it can run" to "how stable it can run." #美中期选举后AI数据中心监管分歧引发行情波动 #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Brothers, today let's focus on the market changes of these three altcoins
$AKE: A rebound does not mean a reversal
Previously, the funding rate was negative, mainly due to excessive short positions, which suppressed the contract price. Some short positions were closed early this morning, causing the price to rebound. This is not an active buy by bulls, nor does it mean the whales are preparing to pump the price. The market is still bearish, so don't rush to bottom-fish
$MERL: Oscillating upward, temporarily on hold
The daily chart shows an overall oscillating upward trend. Currently, there is a pullback, with long positions floating a loss of $368,000, but there is no obvious increase in volume yet. For now, wait for the next direction
$BEAT: Balanced between bulls and bears, direction unclear
Currently, the long-short ratio is relatively even. Recklessly guessing the price movement is not cost-effective. It's safer to wait for the trend to develop before taking action rather than entering blindlyOvernight liquidation of 1.1 billion dollars, and I didn't run away
Last night before I went to bed, I checked BTC at over 78,000; this morning it was over 75,500.
Overnight, 200,000 people were liquidated.
In 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 1.033 billion dollars, with 198,931 people forcibly closed out. In just 4 hours, 880 million was liquidated, with long positions accounting for more than 90%.
BTC dropped to a low of 75,558, ETH dipped to 2,237; it’s not just one coin falling, it’s the whole market.
US stocks crashed first. The Nasdaq plunged, led by chip stocks. After the Democrats' big win in the midterm elections, the market fears Congress will tighten AI regulations, so tech stocks sold off first, and BTC was sold off along with them.
There are two other things many people haven’t noticed yet.
One is Trump Media, which transferred 4,259 BTC to Crypto.com on November 5, worth 342 million dollars. The other is Keel Infrastructure, which sold all 2,520 BTC it held in Q3, cashing out 192 million dollars.
Whales are moving, retail investors are holding on, and leverage is blowing up. That was last night.
I didn’t open any positions last night. It’s not that I’m that good; after writing that article the day before yesterday, I said that in this market, chasing longs with leverage is just giving money to the market.
Tonight is the key.
At 21:30, the US October nonfarm payrolls will be released, expected to add 62,000 jobs, while September’s previous value was only 29,000. Today, there are also 2.65 billion dollars worth of BTC options expiring, with the biggest pain point at 79,000. Just watch two numbers: whether BTC can hold above 76,000 and 78,000.#美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 ⚡ Tech sell-off + computing power regulation shock: BTC breaks 76,000, $1.1 billion in chained liquidations
All post-election gains wiped out overnight.
Why such a sharp drop?
AI computing power regulation black swan: After the election, Democrats control both chambers; NBC poll shows 76% of voters oppose community data centers, 33 out of 45 local referendums impose construction limits; Meta warns of stricter environmental rules for new projects, Goldman Sachs says big tech capital expenditures may be delayed until 2027. Tech stocks crashed first, crypto followed.
Election benefits fully priced in: Pre-election “Trump crypto bonus” discounted, regulatory uncertainty back on the table, institutions reducing positions.
Leveraged long positions liquidated in chain: $1.12 billion liquidated network-wide in 24h (longs $990 million), over 210,000 forced liquidations, price dropped from 78,767 to 75,986 in 1 hour, classic long squeeze.
Macro resonance: Nasdaq lost 200-day moving average, oil prices rebounded, real interest rates remain tight, risk assets deleveraging together.
Support: 75,700 → 73,000
Resistance: 79,100–79,600 → 81,200
Summary
Not the end of the bull market, but a triple kill pullback of “AI regulation expectations + election pricing shift + high leverage cleanup.” Computing power narrative under short-term pressure, AI concept altcoins first to fall; BTC has institutional support, but 80,000 becomes the new top, only reclaiming 79K counts as recovery.
Tech stocks fell due to “computing power delays,” crypto fell due to “leverage casualties.”State root miscalculation, cross-chain temporarily halted — this issue is not about token prices, but about ledger alignment.
The Reth execution client and its derivative client op-reth have been disclosed by the security agency Blockaid to have a state root calculation error, affecting several EVM blockchains including multiple OP Stack chains. Unpatched nodes may experience synchronization stalls or consensus inconsistencies, and LayerZero has suspended related cross-chain services.
This is judged as bearish for the infrastructure layer: the state root is the anchor point for ledger alignment between nodes; a miscalculation can cause nodes to go offline at best, or at worst, different nodes may reach different conclusions on the same batch of transactions, with cross-chain verification and message passing being the first to be impacted. For traders, this is not a bearish signal for any particular chain's token price, but a trust disruption for the OP Stack ecosystem and node operators relying on Reth; there is no clear short-term tradable token, so do not short ETH or OP series tokens based on this.
Two scenarios to observe: one is that nodes and platforms running Reth/op-reth upgrade to the fixed version and re-verify the state root; the other is that LayerZero and affected chains resume cross-chain operations, which may involve withdrawal delays or on-chain anomalies. Risk reminder: the impact of a client-level bug depends on upgrade coverage; unpatched nodes may still drag down network-wide consensus, so the speed of fixing is more important than the narrative.
Are you more concerned about upgrade coverage or the time to resume cross-chain operations?
Source: Wu Shuo#美股AI板块走势分化：云服务商走强、数据中心股承压 One-sided decline, heavy accumulation of bottom-fishing positions
During the decline, new buy orders continuously enter to support, many positions choose to hold and add, spreading the cost higher and higher.
When high-volatility small coins move one-sidedly, funds that keep taking over positions are easily consumed by the market; do not enter lightly without a stabilization signal.
Open the position list and verify
,
MU each order's stop-loss position.
$SNDK $MU $BTC Good map of the trap 👏 Most downside liquidity is cleared, but one pocket is still sitting below $75K — that's the level to watch. If it gets swept and $BTC reclaims $78,500, the path up gets much cleaner. $BTC support $75,000, resistance $77,770 then $80,000. Sweep first or bounce first? Comment $BTC Opened a 50x long position at 1450, added once at 1366, and added again at 1131 — $SNDK In my view, the last two add-ons are increasing risk. The real reference point is the wick on 7/30 that dipped to 972. I only bought 2.43u at 972 myself; with 4x leverage, that’s 9.72. Holding such a light position doesn’t mean I’m bearish; it’s just that 960.1 can’t really be considered a solid bottom. Going down to 860, 760, 660 is still within the realm of possibility. Before storage heated up, it was originally something worth just a few hundred.
Later at 900, 813, 734, 668, I will gradually buy in to lower the average price. Total principal is over 2200, currently invested less than 4u, with leverage it’s only 16u, which accounts for 0.73% of the total position.
Trying at round number levels is fine, at most one-tenth of the funds, and after leverage, don’t exceed 10%. I won’t change this rule.#RocketLabQ3Neutron These are very delicate times for $RKLB, but it just refuses to break down from $50 as the holder base is strong after a 70% decline from all-time highs.
Earnings are incoming too.
Hopeful but realistic that we can get lower.
In my mental model the market cap currently without Neutron producing any revenue till 2028 is around 20-30B and it has nothing to do with their finances but with the cost of replacement of their technology.$BTC fell back to 76,000 overnight. Yesterday, it was full of short squeeze rebounds and shorts got liquidated; today, it's completely reversed, and the main force being liquidated has switched to the longs.
More important than the price is this: crypto tonight is almost synchronously dropping with the Nasdaq. Many still treat BTC as a safe haven decoupled from the US stock market, but in days when the whole market is deleveraging, it and tech stocks are basically part of the same liquidity pool, both getting drained together.
True decoupling is when, even as everyone is selling risk assets, it can still chart an independent trend—that's what safe haven means. Clearly, that is not the case now.
Remember this: don’t bet on it suddenly decoupling when correlation is at its highest.Tonight, the US stock market is bleeding heavily, but there's a detail more honest than the indexes: Cloudflare, also labeled as a tech stock, rose nearly 20% after hours because its earnings report shows solid subscription cash flow; meanwhile, semiconductor stocks relying on burning cash to build AI capacity saw the Philadelphia index drop 12% in a single day, marking the worst day since March 2020.
This doesn't mean tech stocks as a whole are doomed; the market is finally starting to distinguish between who is running a real business and who is just telling AI stories.
In a bull market, all boats rise together, making it hard to tell the depth; when the tide recedes, you see which ones stand on cash flow and which ones hang by narratives. Now is the time of the tide going out. Which type does the stock in your hand belong to? Someone asked me again if I have closed my short position. I haven't; tonight, there's actually one more reason to add to it.
Iren just revealed: due to Microsoft's unilateral request for changes, the delivery date of the data center has been postponed, and no delay compensation will be paid. In plain language, the buyer is starting to hit the brakes.
My short position is never a bet on whether a chip manufacturer makes money or not—AMD's revenue is still doubling. What I'm betting on is the financing chain and demand side that fuel this AI arms race. As long as the buyer starts to delay and contract, the first to bleed in the entire chain will definitely be those upstream companies desperately ramping up capacity.
Financial reports reflect the past quarter, but the buyer's actions indicate the next few quarters. If you focus on the wrong place, even if the direction is right, you'll still get repeatedly slapped in the face.🔥🔥🔥 Election suspense settles, crypto first breaks down then V-shaped rebound
Last night the market was really focused on Washington, not the candlesticks. The Democratic Party took control of both houses of Congress, Trump is constrained, BTC first fell below 76,000, then V-shaped pulled back to 80,500; ETH rose more than 6% simultaneously, recovering to 2,430 USD.
The core is not "who wins," but "uncertainty disappears." After the result settles, safe-haven positions are replenished; checks and balances limit fiscal expansion, US Treasury yields fall, risk assets overall ease pressure, the S&P rises, gold breaks 4,000, crypto rebound is just part of liquidity repricing.
But don’t mistake the rebound for a bull return. The underlying tone this time is still derivatives and sentiment: spot ETFs continued outflows before the election, Binance turmoil aftershocks remain; 82,000 BTC and 2,450 ETH are clear selling pressure zones; regulatory "Clear Act" resistance increases, Warren heads the banking committee, compliance narrative tightens short term.
So right now it looks more like a "bearish exhaustion style repair." If spot volume above 80,000 cannot hold, the rebound easily becomes leverage’s wedding dress. Going forward, focus on the sustainability of US stocks and whether ETFs flow back, more useful than election gossip.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH