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Late Night Dive Review: US Stocks Hit with a Sudden Blow, Crypto Bulls Still Holding Strong
At midnight, US stocks opened with a sudden "stall," dragging the crypto market into a chain reaction of dives. Once panic set in, so-called support levels turned out to be almost paper-thin.
BTC current price 76735, down nearly 6%, plunging from above 80,000. Interestingly, the 4-hour long-short ratio rebounded from a low to 2.04 — the crash didn’t scare off retail investors; instead, it attracted a batch of bottom-fishing bulls. The more bulls crowd in, the less likely the main players are to lift the price; further downside should still be guarded against. ETH current price 2249, down over 7%, has broken below the recent deep V low points, with a long-short ratio of 1.92, funding rates frequently turning negative, clearly showing bulls are forced to beg for mercy at a loss; if US stocks show more weakness, ETH will likely continue searching for a bottom. SOL current price 89.09, a 7% big bearish candle smashed through 90, but the 4-hour long-short ratio surprisingly surged to 3.16, with stubborn bulls below 90 adding positions and holding firm. Leverage piled up like a mille-feuille; unless the main players strike with a big bearish candle to clean out positions, they probably won’t stop.
This wave is essentially a macro sell-off triggered by the US stock market collapse. When the trend is down, don’t rush to guess the bottom; going with the flow is more important than fighting it.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美中期选举后AI数据中心监管分歧引发行情波动 BTC just crashed, and ETH was dragged down with it.
The topic says ETH fluctuated after hitting 2500 USD. I checked OKX spot, the 24h high only reached 2444.88, the 15m high around 2422.41 started to drop continuously, and the 24h low was 2236.09. When BTC suddenly dropped, market sentiment was already weak, and ETH’s surge and retreat looked more like long position holders getting cleaned out.
The 4H big bearish candle had the largest volume; after the heavy sell-off, the following small bullish candle had significantly reduced volume. The current price is around 2282, still up 1.3% in 24h. My view is: this is a recovery after the dump, not a reversal yet. All moving averages on 15m are pressing down, and there are many trapped positions above 2300, so selling pressure won’t be easy to overcome. Neither bulls nor bears have control now, but bears have a slight edge.
My plan is simple: only consider a small position if 2236 doesn’t break and 15m can hold above 2320, with stop loss below 2236. If volume breaks below 2236, I’ll stay out and not try to catch the bottom. The risk is here: if BTC drops again, ETH will fall even harder, so don’t go heavy.
Did you chase above 2400, or have you already exited?
$ETH #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 The Bank of England's night has passed, but the number of people withdrawing money hasn't left.
The number of large ETH holders is more bearish than 0.89, but the position ratio is still more bullish than 1.83. Early this morning, I first dismantled this illusion. The number of people retreated first, but the money is still on the table. This is currently the biggest illusion.😤
The decision night has passed, and the market has first digested a wave. I won't guess the vote count. The expected vote count and initial claims expectation of 197,000 are just expectations at the time of writing; I don't take expectations as results. The same goes for initial claims; expectations are just anchors at the time of writing, and the actual values will be given in the daytime hourly reports. I won't jump the gun. The suspense has landed, and the market hasn't given a new direction. I only watch where the money stands.
Ranking the risks of coins: BTC is the most stable, with a large holder position ratio of 1.97 versus an account ratio of 1.56; the money is more bullish than the people. The 24-hour position hasn't moved, and those holding steady haven't moved; the ballast stone is still there. SOL is the most crowded, with a large holder account ratio of 3.19 and position ratio of 2.61, both consistently bullish, the most crowded and also most afraid of a single needle. ZEC is the most conflicted; retail holders at 0.67 and large holder accounts at 0.65 are bearish, but the position ratio is 1.19 bullish. The number of people withdrew, but the positions remain; the chips are being collected into the hands of a few.😅
Certain security has been replenished to about 98%, with about 3 billion frozen, nearly half, and the total amount of about 6.3 billion unchanged. The second proof will only come out during the day; I just take a quick look as background.
So I first treat it as a repair and don't chase. The SOL large holder ratio will loosen below 2 before I talk about follow-up; before it loosens, positions won't move. Wait for the money to show its stance first. Before it shows, my hands won't move. Waiting is the hardest operation early in the morning, don't rush.🔒I closed my short position from $0.0175 at $0.0127. Even a small position matters when the market keeps moving against you. Protecting profits is more important than chasing every last dollar. The chart remains weak: • Persistent downward pressure • MACD bullish divergence failing to deliver a meaningful recovery • $0.0116 remains an unconfirmed potential support • Any rebound needs strong volume to demonstrate genuine buying interest The election outcome has added another layer of uncertainty t$SOL
Is breaking below 90 considered a breakdown? Breaking news at 23:52 reports SOL falling below $90, with OKX order book lowest at 89.15, down from 96.6 in 24 hours, now at 91.48.
At 23:00, the 1H candle traded 3.53 million contracts, $321 million, while at 21:00 it was only 301,000 contracts, less than $29 million, more than eleven times higher. At 00:00, volume dropped to 659,000 contracts, $59.66 million, less than 20% of the previous candle, and price climbed back from 89.66 to above 91.5.
The key is open interest. 3.427 million contracts, $313.7 million, only 35,000 contracts less than four hours ago's 3.462 million, less than one percent. With $300 million volume dumped, leverage was barely cleared, indicating a turnover between longs and shorts.
The fee rate dropped from 0.006% to negative 0.00007%, basically zero but still with shorts paying. At this point, I won't guess the direction: if 89 holds, it's a shakeout; if not, the longs above 92 become the new trapped positions. Three hours ago I was still writing about that USDC in the Samsung wallet, now it's dumped like this, the market waits for no one.
#美中期选举后AI数据中心监管分歧引发行情波动 $SNDK
The 20:00 article I wrote waited for the 22:30 stock quote, and the quote came in even worse than I expected. SanDisk's stock dropped between 17 to 20 points, with slight differences in numbers reported by various news outlets; the semiconductor sector as a whole fell by 10%.
On the token side, it dropped from 1027.8 to 808.3 over 24 hours, a 21-point drop, now at 883.8. At 23:00, the 1H candle saw 841,000 contracts traded, $719 million, eight times the 105,000 contracts at 21:00.
But at 00:00, volume dropped to 293,000 contracts, $250 million, only one-third of the previous hour, and the price bounced from 821 back to 886. Open interest is 146,900 contracts, $129.7 million, nearly 10,000 contracts and $23 million less than the 156,800 contracts, $153 million at 21:51; some were liquidated.
The fee rate remains 0.0464%, four and a half times the benchmark; the surviving longs still pay every eight hours. This is not panic selling, but knocking out one batch and then replenishing another. I won't catch the rebound; first, I want to see if the 808 spike is today's bottom. The stock is still in the market; waiting for the close.
#美中期选举后AI数据中心监管分歧引发行情波动 Last night, a follower asked: “What if the Democrats win?” My response was simple: short first, then long. Today, BTC’s price action played out with a sharp sell-off followed by a powerful rebound. The price dropped to $75,738 between 7:30 and 11:00, then reversed from 11:15 and climbed back toward $78,400. Another round of liquidations likely caught traders on both sides. The initial sell-off coincided with US midterm election results and fears that Democratic control could complicate crypto leBattle on Nonfarm Payroll Night, Bulls and Bears Tugging at the 80,000 Level
BTC 77,860 (-1.91%), ETH 2,330 (-2.81%). Yesterday's rebound failed to hold, the market surged then retreated, with the Fear and Greed Index lingering at 34 in the fear zone.
Capital Flow: ETF stops the bleeding, internal fund rotation.
Yesterday BTC (+74.6 million) and ETH (+53 million) both turned positive. But there was intense internal divergence: Fidelity inflow of 237 million, BlackRock outflow of 200 million. This indicates a redistribution of existing funds rather than large-scale external inflows. Meanwhile, contract funding rates turned negative, shorts started paying fees, and short-term sentiment reached extremes.
Macro: Nonfarm payroll bombshell tonight.
Market expects an increase of 63,000-65,000 jobs. If data greatly exceeds expectations, it will boost rate hike expectations, possibly pushing prices below 78,000; if data disappoints, it supports a recession trade. Neither side is a safe bet.
Key Levels:
BTC: Support below at 77,200-76,300, break could target 74,000; resistance above at 79,300-80,300.
ETH: Weaker than BTC, core support below at 2,345-2,285, resistance above at 2,500.
In short: Before the nonfarm release, bulls and bears will likely tug repeatedly between 80,000 and 77,200. Don’t guess the data; stay out or lightly test support levels with tight stops. Once nonfarm data lands, that’s when direction will be set.ETH’s explosive rebound is catching shorts off guard! Price is approaching $2,450, with a 24-hour gain exceeding 6%. The short squeeze has changed market sentiment almost overnight. But is this the beginning of a real reversal? The $2,440–$2,450 zone remains a critical resistance area, while $2,500 could become the next major battleground. Short covering may be driving this rally, but sustainable upside requires stronger spot demand and renewed buying volume. My key levels: • $2,350 — important The reason for the market crash has been found, it turns out to be because of these things
BTC rose all day, then fell back to the starting point within an hour.
Everyone thinks it's the Democratic Party's policies affecting AI tech stocks, but what does that have to do with BTC?
On the surface, AI tech stocks plunged, dragging BTC down with them.
I believe the underlying logic has several reasons:
1. Yesterday's rebound was too much, the market didn't stabilize.
2. The Democrats took both chambers, the market worries about long-term unfavorable crypto policies.
3. Claude's parent company plans an IPO in November, which may divert market funds.
4. The December rate hike is expected to exceed 80%. Funds are hesitant to buy in.
The above continuous negative factors make it difficult for the market to sustain a rebound.
In the next month, it may be hard to see sustained upward momentum; more likely, there will be a period of volatility. After the rate hike expectations materialize, a new direction will emerge.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC faced resistance after a surge and then experienced a rapid drop. Do not assume that the current slight halt and rebound means the downtrend has stopped.
The current market price is about 76319. After a short-term dip reaching the low of 75558, there was a slight recovery. Moving averages across all timeframes have turned into resistance.
Until it reclaims the key resistance zone and confirms buying support, rushing to bottom-fish risks further downside. To reverse the current weakness, it needs to reclaim the upper resistance and hold on a pullback; if it breaks the previous low again, the downside space will further open. Without a clear signal of a halt in the decline, it is unwise to rush into long positions. Will you wait for a second confirmation of the low, or wait for a rebound to break resistance before considering? Just sharing market thoughts.
#美中期选举后AI数据中心监管分歧引发行情波动 Storage chips were "wrongly sold off": SanDisk and Micron plunged, I started tentative bottom-fishing
The storage sector has been bloodied these past two days: SanDisk $SNDK dropped over 19% in a single day, $MU fell more than 16%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged over 11%. Micron has pulled back about 20%+ from recent highs but is still up over 150% year-to-date.
What was sold off? The Democrats' big midterm election victory sparked market fears of tighter data center regulation, compounded by cloud providers' capital expenditure growth expectations slowing from 94% to 50%. But the fundamentals haven't collapsed: Micron's Q4 revenue was 54.2 billion, gross margin 87%, HBM capacity is sold out, 75% of 2027 shipments are already locked in, Citigroup's target price is $1300, and consensus target prices imply doubling potential.
Risks must be acknowledged: DRAM month-over-month price increases have narrowed from over 60% to 10–15%, and the price hike dividend is fading. So this is not a "buy with eyes closed" position, but buying an AI upstream asset with capacity locked through 2027 at a forward PE just over 5x offers decent odds. My approach: not going all in, probing in batches, saving bullets for deeper pullbacks. The left side is uncomfortable, but cheapness itself is a reason.
#美中期选举后AI数据中心监管分歧引发行情波动 $OFC This airdrop has only received less than 2 million, most people directly swapped and sold through DEX, so the selling pressure is very highIREN will announce the Q1 financial report for 2027 after the US stock market closes on November 5. The company is accelerating its shift from Bitcoin mining to AI smart cloud services, while continuing the deployment of GPU clusters and data center delivery. This report will reflect progress in computing power delivery and cloud revenue growth.快照：2026-11-05 23:55:05（Asia/Shanghai）。当前未结束K线可能参与实时预警。 扫描：核心77个，成功73个，失败4个；当前涨幅Top20对过去48小时信号提前命中率：5.0%（1/20）。 覆盖不完整：其中历史K线不足4个，其他失败0个；这些标的不能按无信号或低风险处理。 【正式提前预警（最多3个）】 1. STX-USDT｜基础8｜质量95｜24H额11.08百万 现价 0.3331｜入场 0.3661～0.3715915｜触发 0.3661 止损 0.3137225｜止盈1 0.45153062｜止盈2 0.50665387 依据：4H双底收回；日/4H放量 3.43/2.06；24H -2.80%，7日 19.43%。等待进入入场区并确认触发 【预备观察（最多5个）】 1. NFT-USDT｜基础6｜质量78｜24H额5.17百万 现价 0.00000022｜入场 0.00000024～0.00000024｜触发 0.00000024 止损 0.00000022｜止盈1 0.00000027｜止盈2 0.0000003 依据：假跌破回收；日/4H放#美中期选举后AI数据中心监管分歧引发行情波动 81000, 80% rate hike expectations can't stop the pulse surge
The probability of a rate hike stands firm at 80%, yet the market unexpectedly shows an explosive move, with ETH surging 7% and BTC simultaneously reaching a 5% gain. Many directly interpret this bullish candle as a bull market start signal.
After the price hits 81000, it turns down and falls back. Around 82000, there is a heavy accumulation of trapped chips from a long consolidation period, creating strong resistance to the upside. A 1.2 billion trading volume was smashed out on the 15-minute level, but the price failed to break out further; selling pressure has already outweighed support.
I believe this is just a short-term pulse without the foundation for a sustained bull run. Playing the pullback along this boundary aligns better with the market signals.
$ETH $BTC $SOL Nonfarm payrolls shock the market! ETH plunges from 2429, just-earned profits vanish instantly?
This market flip is faster than turning a page. Yesterday, it was holding steady around 2429 riding the election heat, but as soon as the nonfarm data dropped tonight, it plunged hard, with gains being swallowed bit by bit.
To put it bluntly, the employment data far exceeded expectations, with both new jobs and wage growth slapping the market in the face. Everyone was hoping the Fed would ease up and slow rate hikes, but now expectations have flipped toward continued tightening in December. The dollar and US Treasury yields surged on the spot, draining all categories of risk assets. Crypto, being highly volatile, naturally took the hardest hit. $ETH
Plus, the recent rally was mainly driven by sentiment, with profit-taking piled up and traders just waiting for a chance to cash out. Once the bad news hit, they rushed to sell, dragging down a bunch of long positions chasing highs, causing a stampede that the downtrend couldn’t stop. Any long-term bullish hopes from regulatory easing are insignificant compared to the hard evidence of macro tightening.
Truly a lesson learned the hard way: never get greedy before major data releases. Lock in profits first, that’s the real wisdom. With rate hike expectations looming overhead, expect more volatility ahead. Better to reduce positions and lay low for now. $BTC "Altcoin Market Observation: Control Pullbacks First in a Weak Market, Don't Mistake a Rebound for a Bottom"
$AKE: After breaking support, the trend is weak, with piled-up chips above creating resistance; the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. At this time, bottom-fishing has limited success probability; if attempting a rebound trade, it should be light position and short-term, with stop-loss set in advance. Do not mistake a repair for a reversal.
$APR: Long positions are under clear floating loss pressure; short-term pullbacks look more like emotional repair rather than trend reversal. If positions and margin are not properly managed, avoid rushing to add longs; first observe if the rebound can hold key levels, then evaluate subsequent opportunities.
$HUMA: Frequent intraday spikes with long and short sides sweeping losses back and forth, lacking directional clarity. Such movements are not suitable for chasing highs or cutting lows, nor for opening positions based on intuition; it is safer to wait for volume breakout or support confirmation before making decisions.
Summary: Altcoins currently have a low margin for error, and repeated fluctuations easily amplify mistakes. While direction is important, position control and stop-loss discipline should come first. This is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice.Excellent breakdown — you nailed the strategic logic.
Latest data adds nuance: Qualcomm announced Nov 4 its Dragonwing QRU100 + QDU100 will power Starlink Mobile, calling it its biggest 5G deal yet — tens of thousands of sites from 2027, Massive MIMO down to 2GHz.
Yet QCOM fell to ∼$152 today, -12.2%, after Q4 handset revenue fell 26% to $5.14B, even as auto jumped 89% to $1.99B and Q4 revenue beat at $10.44B.
So the market agrees with you: brilliant long-term pivot, but execution. 🐋 Whale triple short: unrealized loss nearly 18.19 million U, funding fees have recovered 12.23 million U
Monitoring detected a whale holding full short positions simultaneously on $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL, with leverage of 5x, 5x, and 7x respectively, total position about 465 million U. The unrealized loss on the books totals about 18.19 million U, but cumulative funding fee income is about 12.23 million U, net unrealized loss about 5.96 million U, a typical "holding unrealized loss while earning funding fees" long-term layout.📉
Breakdown:
BTC: short 2,327.43 units, entry price $76,398.7, position 190 million U, unrealized loss 8.9519 million U, funding fees +3.6261 million U, margin 37.353 million U, liquidation price $137,514.07.
ETH: short 87,500 units, entry price $2,322.71, position 210 million U, unrealized loss 8.8535 million U, funding fees +4.627 million U, margin 42.4178 million U, liquidation price $3,934.94.
SOL: short 684,800 units, entry price $94.3346, position 64.9868 million U, unrealized loss 386,400 U, funding fees +3.9816 million U, margin 9.2838 million U, liquidation price $285.08.
#美中期选举后AI数据中心监管分歧引发行情波动 #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $SUI
Fast execution is attractive, but blockchain performance alone cannot guarantee lasting adoption. Sui's Move-based architecture and object-centric data model offer a distinctive technical approach to building decentralized applications. Its next challenge is demonstrating that this architecture can support applications with persistent user demand. Developer experimentation is encouraging, but retention and meaningful usage provide stronger evidence of ecosystem health.$AAVE
Aave's competitive advantage is not simply its position in decentralized lending; it is the infrastructure it has built around borrowing, collateral management, and liquidity coordination. Sustainable growth depends on whether users continue choosing decentralized credit when market conditions become less favorable. Lending demand during quiet markets may reveal more about the protocol's resilience than activity during a speculative rally. Why are US stocks and BTC strengthening against the trend?
After Trump's midterm election loss, US stocks and BTC rose instead of falling. On the surface, this seems contradictory, but in reality, the market is trading another main theme: war and oil prices.
Vance previously pointed out that conflicts push up energy prices, which also raise the cost of living for Americans. Now the market is starting to bet on a cooling of US-Iran tensions. If oil prices fall, inflationary pressure will ease accordingly. With weaker inflation expectations and stronger expectations for rate cuts, risk assets naturally benefit. Thus, US stocks and BTC have rebounded.
The transmission path is not complicated: oil price decline → inflation easing → increased easing expectations → capital returning to risk assets. For the crypto market, advancing the CLARITY Act may be more difficult, but what truly determines the market trend is liquidity. Regulatory narratives are important, but liquidity is more important.
Going forward, keep an eye on three things: the war situation, oil price trends, and capital flows. The next opportunity for $BTC does not depend on short-term sentiment but on whether the macro environment can substantially improve. If oil prices continue to fall and liquidity expectations warm up, risk assets still have room for recovery; otherwise, any rebound may just be sentiment-driven trading. Tonight, the price couldn't hold above 81,000, causing profit-taking to concentrate and the order book to thin out late at night, so a single large sell order pushed the price down.
Breaking it down specifically:
1. The sideways movement during the day already showed weakness. Yesterday at 80,900 and today at 81,200, the price was pushed back twice, indicating heavy selling pressure above. When the price can't rise, some take profits early.
2. Poor liquidity late at night. During the early morning hours, there were few large trades. When a big short order hit, no one stepped in to buy, so the price dropped straight down from 80,900 to a low of 75,558.
3. Bottom-fishing funds stepped in around 75,500. This area was a low point from a few days ago, with buy orders placed below, so after the drop, the price was pulled back to 76,300.
4. Funds are hedging first. There is a key data window from tonight until tomorrow morning. Leveraged funds are unwilling to hold overnight risk, so they reduce long positions first, which also amplifies volatility.
This small bullish candle now is just a pullback after a sharp drop, not a reversal. The 76,000–78,000 range still needs to consolidate. Don't rush to bottom-fish or chase shorts; wait for the data to be released and the order book to stabilize before reassessing. $BTC #sndk SanDisk Price Drop Reasons!!!
1. The US Democratic Party plans to suspend the development of advanced artificial intelligence, regulate the out-of-control industry, and ban artificial superintelligence. Both the Senate and the House of Representatives have proposed related bills. For violations, involved companies may face forced dissolution, and individuals may be sentenced to up to 20 years in federal prison.
2. However, the core concept of the bill, "artificial superintelligence," lacks an operable technical definition. This ambiguity itself constitutes a risk premium for AI asset valuation. $BTC $SNDK Newly elected Democratic officials in core states like Texas advocate for strict regulation of data centers, focusing on controlling electricity, water usage, and environmental approvals. Many proposed new AI computing power projects face suspension risks.
The market is worried that the data center sector, which had been expanding wildly, will face an approval winter, slowing down new computing power capital expenditures.
2. Electricity bottlenecks have long been a pain point in the AI industry.
Previously, major companies poured money into expanding AI computing power, competing for civilian electricity, driving up electricity costs, and community protests have been escalating. This election result has amplified this conflict to the level of capital market pricing.
3. Why are tech giants rising while chip and storage stocks fall?
Cloud providers with existing computing power face reduced capital expenditure pressure, market expectations for improved cash flow, and thus valuation recovery.
Meanwhile, hardware manufacturers like Nvidia, Micron, and TSMC, which heavily rely on new computing power orders, see the market lowering long-term demand expectations, leading to concentrated sell-offs. Also, I have repeatedly warned about the issues and risks of hardware in the current range but was met with insults. I feel I have done my best; you cannot stop some people from losing money that doesn't belong to them.Beginner's Diary｜Finally understood "Cold Wallet vs Hot Wallet" today 🥶🔥
Coinbase posted on 11/4: Over 99% of user assets are stored in cold storage (offline, not connected), leaving only a small portion in hot wallets for withdrawals.
My understanding👇
🔥 Hot wallet = cash register drawer, always ready to give change, but also the favorite target of thieves
🥶 Cold wallet = underground vault, unplugged, hackers can only stare helplessly through the network cable
They also mentioned a few tricks: splitting private keys into fragments, not assembling them fully during signing; speed limits on cold-to-hot transfers; flagging abnormal withdrawals for manual review first; and if necessary, directly "pulling the power" to stop signing.
Beginner's note: The 99% figure is self-reported by the platform, no independent third-party verification. Checking reserve proofs + securing your own 2FA and withdrawal whitelist is the real deal 😂
Do you keep your coins on exchanges or manage them yourself?
Learning check-in, not investment advice $CORE Core's current weaknesses focus on "ecosystem security trust damage" and "liquidity dilemma with declining volume and price." Before the b14g incident completes thorough post-event analysis, security system reconstruction, and smooth governance transition, its rebound resistance is significant.
⚠️ Risk warning: The above analysis is based solely on public market data and news and does not constitute any investment advice. CORE currently has extremely high volatility and security risks; please carefully assess your own risk tolerance and do not blindly bottom-fish. $BTC $ZEC #BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 $ANTHROPIC valuation has plummeted
The recent sell-off just hit below 150, confirming 1.5 trillion
There are rumors that the IPO is delayed, but it's inevitable to launch it now
However, financial targets are meant for cashing out 🤡Although the election results were anticipated by some, the margin exceeded general market expectations. The advancement of several key agendas will depend on negotiation and compromise with the Democratic Party.
The previously anticipated industry deregulation is now clearly more difficult to implement in the short term, requiring a recalibration of positions built around policy benefits. After the news is realized, the market will enter a new round of pricing, with a focus on how capital digests this change.
In the short term, it is unwise to rush to chase a single narrative; instead, pay attention to negotiation progress and capital flows, patiently waiting for clearer directional signals. #美中期选举后AI数据中心监管分歧引发行情波动 #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Bullets are running low, but the bulls are still holding strong: all the validation info for this wave of short positions is here
Brothers, $BTC has dropped to a low of 75,000, and we’ve made a killing on this wave of shorts. But don’t pop the champagne just yet; the market trend and on-chain validation info are right here, and after reading this, you’ll understand why this profit feels so solid.
First, look at the core validation — the “bullets” are being drained on two fronts. The total supply of stablecoins has shrunk by about $5.7 billion in a week, hitting a near one-year low; meanwhile, spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows exceeding $1 billion over two trading days. Stablecoins represent available funds on exchanges, ETFs represent marginal buying from traditional institutions, and both lines moving down simultaneously means the actual dollars willing to stay and buy the dip are decreasing, not just people selling coins.
Next, look at the liquidation structure, the harshest validation. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations on the network once exceeded $800 million, with longs accounting for over 93%, 213,000 people liquidated, and BTC itself liquidated $235 million. What’s worse is that contract open interest rose from $7.46 billion to $7.65 billion during the decline — prices falling while longs keep adding. This structure makes it hard to see a decent rebound because every bounce gives trapped longs a chance to “break even and exit,” rather than signaling new money entering.
Back to the market. In the screenshot, BTC dropped from 81,197.9 to 76,233.8, with a sell wall of 473,000 USDT at 76,233.9 above, and the order book showing 54% sell orders versus 46% buy orders. Technically, $77,700 is the cost basis for investors who entered 1 to 3 months ago; BTC has already fallen below this level, meaning this recent batch of buyers is overall underwater. CryptoQuant says: in a bull market, the cost basis acts as support, but once broken, underwater holders see breaking even as an exit opportunity, turning that level from support into resistance. If $77,000 doesn’t hold, what’s below isn’t “support” but the “next liquidation zone.”
There’s also an easily overlooked validation: whales have net inflowed about 12,855 BTC to exchanges, increasing potential short-term selling pressure. Funding rates are still slightly positive (+0.0052%), with bulls having a slight edge but not extremely crowded, indicating that this rebound repair involved a lot of short covering, not a new trend.
$ETH $ZEC #美中期选举后AI数据中心监管分歧引发行情波动 #Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ Featuring the Aurora sodium-cooled fast reactor (Generation IV small reactor), single unit 15MW/50MW, aimed at providing stable baseload zero-carbon power for AI data centers;
The model is BOO (Build, Own, Operate) + long-term PPA power purchase agreements: no sale of reactor equipment, directly selling electricity to major clients, earning long-term electricity fees, which is the biggest difference from traditional nuclear power.
- Target customers: AI computing power companies like Meta, Switch, power grids, industry, military;
- Landmark order: Meta's 1.2GW nuclear power park in Ohio (non-binding intention + prepayment framework, not a formal power supply contract), phase one earliest online in 2030, full capacity by 2034The 15-minute chart for xSNDK/USDT demonstrates a short-term bearish pullback structure trading at $xSNDK $864.3 (-16.17%), holding above local floor support at $809.6 following a retracement from peak resistance at $xSNDK $1,006.0.
Price action is testing dynamic moving average resistance with MA5 at $xSNDK $853.8, while trading below MA10 at $898.7 and baseline MA20 at $942.5, accompanied by negative MACD momentum at -23.3.
#USMidtermAIDataCenterRules Complete analysis of the three-step sequence: BTC theft irretrievable → sell-off for risk aversion → buy-side exhaustion → confidence collapse
Core logic: This is a chain reaction of negative feedback, each step driving the next, not an independent market event. Unlike stablecoins, stolen BTC cannot be frozen by issuer blacklists; on-chain coin mixing and transfers make tracking extremely difficult and recovery hopes slim. This fact is the starting point of the entire negative chain.
Step 1: Sell-off for risk aversion (panic escape, source of selling pressure)
When the market confirms that stolen BTC cannot be frozen and is hard to recover, the first reaction is risk-averse selling, divided into two types of funds:
1. Custodial funds on platforms prioritize withdrawals: Investors realize that even top exchanges are not safe against nation-level APT social engineering attacks; BTC held in custody is not secure. Large amounts of funds prioritize withdrawing BTC from exchanges to cold wallets regardless of short-term gains or losses, no longer participating in trading; some directly choose to sell and exit, no longer holding such assets. Large net outflows after withdrawal channels open signal this.
2. Short-term traders and leveraged funds actively reduce positions: BTC in hackers' hands is cost-free chips, which they will liquidate in batches opportunistically. The market anticipates rebounds will be met with sell-offs. Short-term funds unwilling to bear this unknown selling pressure sell first to avoid risk; bulls actively close positions, triggering many forced liquidations, further increasing sell pressure.
3. Hackers’ continuous selling: Hackers split addresses and cross-chain mix coins, avoiding dumping all at once. Whenever the market warms slightly, they convert and liquidate small batches, creating long-term intermittent selling pressure, continuously unsettling the market.
👉 Essence of this step: Risk appetite rapidly declines; everyone prioritizes "preserving principal" over chasing gains.
Step 2: Buy-side exhaustion (liquidity dries up, accelerated decline)
After massive sell-offs, the market quickly enters the second step: funds willing to buy disappear, liquidity shrinks rapidly.
1. Incremental funds halt and wait: Institutions, ETF funds, and OTC funds originally ready to enter delay plans after seeing top exchanges suffer large-scale BTC thefts and assets hard to recover, no longer adding buy orders.
2. Existing funds stop absorbing: Large holders and market makers reduce positions, lower order book depth, and decrease liquidity supply. They no longer actively buy dips, fearing hacker chips and new security black swans below.
3. Rebounds become selling windows: Occasional small rebounds without new funds pushing prices up turn into selling opportunities for panic sellers, hacker chips, and trapped holders.
Crypto prices heavily depend on liquidity; after buy-side exhaustion, even ordinary sell orders can cause deep price drops, leading to cliff-like declines.
👉 Essence of this step: Supply-demand imbalance, persistent sell pressure, active disappearance of buy-side support, valuation loses backing.
Step 3: Confidence collapse (foundational consensus breaks down, prolonged bear market)
The first two steps reflect capital behavior at the market level; the third step is at the belief level and is the most damaging and hardest to repair.
BTC’s long-term core narrative is digital gold, self-sovereignty, cryptographic security, and scarcity for value preservation.
The event of "large-scale BTC theft, irretrievable" directly breaks two foundational consensuses:
1. Custody consensus: BTC held on exchanges is not under one’s control; "Not your keys, not your coins" shifts from slogan to everyone’s real risk.
2. Store-of-value consensus: As digital gold, BTC should serve as a safe haven; now it becomes a high-risk asset vulnerable to nation-level hacker thefts and irrecoverable losses, invalidating its safe-haven attribute.
After confidence collapse, a long-term inertia forms:
- Long-term holders no longer insist on holding; they reduce positions on rebounds, shifting from "hold" to "sell on rallies";
- The market reprices a series of long-term risks: exchange security vulnerabilities, quantum computing future cracking risks, regulatory tracing and sanctions risks;
- Market logic completely reverses: positive news is muted, negative news amplified infinitely; any slight disturbance triggers new rounds of sell-offs.
👉 Essence of this step: The consensus foundation supporting the coin price loosens, valuation center permanently shifts downward, and the downtrend cycle lengthens, making quick recovery difficult.
Summary of the three-step linkage
BTC theft irretrievable → panic-driven sell-off for risk aversion, continuous release of selling pressure → no one willing to buy, buy-side exhaustion, liquidity thinning, accelerated decline → foundational consensus shattered, confidence collapse, forming long-term bear market expectations.
Even if Binance fully covers users’ on-paper losses, it can only solve users’ book losses, cannot eliminate the selling pressure from hacker-held circulating BTC, nor repair market trust fractures in custody security and digital gold narratives.
Also distinguish: Bitcoin mainnet itself is not compromised; what is compromised is exchange custody signing authority; this distinction is the source of STRK’s post-quantum narrative, but STRK also cannot resist exchange social engineering hijacking risks.Early morning session on November 6 🎈 bringing some warmth to the bulls
BTC daily chart has reached a support level, especially with unemployment claims and non-farm payroll data releasing tonight.
My take on this drop is that part of it is due to the US stock market crash, and part is due to tomorrow's data release.
Today saw a major pullback of 5,000 points. I'm positioned bullish in the 75,500-76,000 range, preemptively digesting the negative news. With tomorrow's data release, the market is likely to rebound, and we should see the 78,000-78,500 range without much issue $BTC The US midterm elections have changed US-Iran expectations, Brent crude fell below $95, and risk appetite has declined, dragging down the crypto market. SPCX is also unable to remain unaffected. My overall judgment is that the short-term trend remains bearish with weak rebounds. From the funding perspective, the funding rate of 0.0121% shows that longs are still paying to hold positions. The open interest of 412,000 coin-margined contracts has not significantly decreased, indicating that the decline is mainly driven by spot selling pressure rather than leverage liquidation, and sentiment has not reached extreme panic. After a 8.9% drop in 24 hours, the price is only 1.77% above the 4-hour low and 1.72% above the 1-hour low. There is support around 121.35 below, and heavy selling pressure at 128.65 above. The top 10 order book buy/sell ratio of 1.52 shows buyers dominate the orders, but the trading volume is only 1.866 million, indicating insufficient confidence in the rebound. Strategically, one can lightly short at 124.85 with a stop loss at 127.35 and a target of 121.55; if volume increases and price stabilizes above 126.45, reverse to a short-term long with a stop loss at 123.85 and a target of 129.15. Single position size should not exceed 20% and stop losses must be strictly enforced.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SPCX #US midterm elections trigger volatility due to AI data center regulation disagreements
#US midterm elections change US-Iran expectations, Brent crude falls below $95
$SPCX Moscow Exchange Crypto Listing: Compliance Increment ≠ Main Bull Run 🧭
Starting December 1, the Moscow Exchange will open trading for BTC, ETH, and USDT, from 06:50 to 23:50 Moscow time, cleared by the National Settlement Depository, supporting same-day/next-day settlement and swap liquidity management. 📅
The positive aspect is that Russia is integrating crypto assets into mainstream securities infrastructure, effectively opening a compliant gateway for local funds, which marginally increases local buying demand for BTC, ETH, and use cases for USDT. 📈
But don’t rush to call a big rally. Ordinary investors need to test first, and can buy up to 300,000 rubles (about 3,700 USD) worth of assets per year through a single broker; only qualified investors have no limit. The cap indicates this is a "controlled market," with limited retail inflows, making it difficult to generate a global-scale capital pulse in the short term. 🧱
A more critical risk is that the Moscow Exchange and the National Settlement Depository were sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in June 2024; USDT is issued by Tether and will freeze wallets on the sanctions list. Holding USDT on this platform carries a real risk of passive freezing. ⚠️
My judgment: neutral to slightly bullish, with clear divergence between bulls and bears. Treat this as a mid-term tracking item for Russia’s compliance narrative, not a reason to chase the rally; focus on custody and on-chain freezing paths for the USDT portion. Don’t mistake the capped, sanctioned-channel buying demand for the main market trend. 🔍Complete analysis of the three-step sequence: BTC theft irretrievable → sell-off for risk aversion → buy-side exhaustion → confidence collapse
Core logic: This is a chain reaction of negative feedback, each step driving the next, not an independent market event. Unlike stablecoins, stolen BTC cannot be frozen by issuer blacklists; on-chain coin mixing and transfers make tracking extremely difficult and recovery hopes slim. This fact is the starting point of the entire negative chain.
Step 1: Sell-off for risk aversion (panic escape, source of selling pressure)
When the market confirms that stolen BTC cannot be frozen and is hard to recover, the first reaction is risk-averse selling, divided into two types of funds:
1. Custodial funds on platforms prioritize withdrawals: Investors realize that even top exchanges are not safe against nation-level APT social engineering attacks; BTC held in custody is not secure. Large amounts of funds prioritize withdrawing BTC from exchanges to cold wallets regardless of short-term gains or losses, no longer participating in trading; some directly choose to sell and exit, no longer holding such assets. Large net outflows after withdrawal channels open signal this.
2. Short-term traders and leveraged funds actively reduce positions: BTC in hackers' hands is cost-free chips, which they will liquidate in batches opportunistically. The market anticipates rebounds will be met with sell-offs. Short-term funds unwilling to bear this unknown selling pressure sell first to avoid risk; bulls actively close positions, triggering many forced liquidations, further increasing sell pressure.
3. Hackers’ continuous selling: Hackers split addresses and cross-chain mix coins, avoiding dumping all at once. Whenever the market warms slightly, they convert and liquidate small batches, creating long-term intermittent selling pressure, continuously unsettling the market.
👉 Essence of this step: Risk appetite rapidly declines; everyone prioritizes "preserving principal" over chasing gains.
Step 2: Buy-side exhaustion (liquidity dries up, accelerated decline)
After massive sell-offs, the market quickly enters the second step: funds willing to buy disappear, liquidity shrinks rapidly.
1. Incremental funds halt and wait: Institutions, ETF funds, and OTC funds originally ready to enter delay plans after seeing top exchanges suffer large-scale BTC thefts and assets hard to recover, no longer adding buy orders.
2. Existing funds stop absorbing: Large holders and market makers reduce positions, lower order book depth, and decrease liquidity supply. They no longer actively buy dips, fearing hacker chips and new security black swans below.
3. Rebounds become selling windows: Occasional small rebounds without new funds pushing prices up turn into selling opportunities for panic sellers, hacker chips, and trapped holders.
Crypto prices heavily depend on liquidity; after buy-side exhaustion, even ordinary sell orders can cause deep price drops, leading to cliff-like declines.
👉 Essence of this step: Supply-demand imbalance, persistent sell pressure, active disappearance of buy-side support, valuation loses backing.
Step 3: Confidence collapse (foundational consensus breaks down, prolonged bear market)
The first two steps reflect capital behavior at the market level; the third step is at the belief level and is the most damaging and hardest to repair.
BTC’s long-term core narrative is digital gold, self-sovereignty, cryptographic security, and scarcity for value preservation.
The event of "large-scale BTC theft, irretrievable" directly breaks two foundational consensuses:
1. Custody consensus: BTC held on exchanges is not under one’s control; "Not your keys, not your coins" shifts from slogan to everyone’s real risk.
2. Store-of-value consensus: As digital gold, BTC should serve as a safe haven; now it becomes a high-risk asset vulnerable to nation-level hacker thefts and irrecoverable losses, invalidating its safe-haven attribute.
After confidence collapse, a long-term inertia forms:
- Long-term holders no longer insist on holding; they reduce positions on rebounds, shifting from "hold" to "sell on rallies";
- The market reprices a series of long-term risks: exchange security vulnerabilities, quantum computing future cracking risks, regulatory tracing and sanctions risks;
- Market logic completely reverses: positive news is muted, negative news amplified infinitely; any slight disturbance triggers new rounds of sell-offs.
👉 Essence of this step: The consensus foundation supporting the coin price loosens, valuation center permanently shifts downward, and the downtrend cycle lengthens, making quick recovery difficult.
Summary of the three-step linkage
BTC theft irretrievable → panic-driven sell-off for risk aversion, continuous release of selling pressure → no one willing to buy, buy-side exhaustion, liquidity thinning, accelerated decline → foundational consensus shattered, confidence collapse, forming long-term bear market expectations.
Even if Binance fully covers users’ on-paper losses, it can only solve users’ book losses, cannot eliminate the selling pressure from hacker-held circulating BTC, nor repair market trust fractures in custody security and digital gold narratives.
Also distinguish: Bitcoin mainnet itself is not compromised; what is compromised is exchange custody signing authority; this distinction is the source of STRK’s post-quantum narrative, but STRK also cannot resist exchange social engineering hijacking risks.It took 67 days for $BTC to reach the pre-FTX bankruptcy level.
It took only 6 days for BTC to reach the pre-Binance hack level.
A strong reason that the cycle bottom is in.
#USMidtermAIDataCenterRules Today's drop is because of this ban.
I think it's ridiculous. If it were really a ban, then other countries around the world, especially East Asia, would be overjoyed.
It's completely just an excuse to crash the market and hit Trump, while also buying some chips at a discount.
Actually, this wave of the Democratic Party winning is just inexplicable, just like their inexplicable loss in '24, and now it seems the Democratic Party doesn't have a clear leading boss.
In fact, this news just magnifies the issue of return on capital expenditure for AI infrastructure.
The US stock market fell 5% overnight, what does that even mean!
Is it going to collapse all at once?
Just like last night, don't be greedy, if the key level doesn't break, then there's a problem.
Don't panic, the drop is an opportunity. This chart shows the spread between SOFR and IORB, where SOFR is the overnight interbank loan interest rate secured by US Treasury securities, while IORB is the interest received by banks when depositing funds at The Fed. A positive figure means short-term funding is more expensive compared to the reserve interest at the central bank. It can be seen that this spread once reached +32bp at the peak in 2025, then has now risen again to around +5bp as of November 5, 2026. This condition indicates that funding stress is beginning to return The December rate hike is no longer much of a market surprise.
· On September 16, the Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point rate hike;
· On October 28, the meeting held rates steady at 3.75%-4%, though two members still favored further tightening;
· September US PCE rose year-over-year to 3.6%, indicating inflation is not easing smoothly;
· On November 3, rate futures implied nearly an 80% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December.
Even with relatively strong growth data, a rate cut window is unlikely in the short term. For bulls, if the December hike happens, it would mean this event-driven negative factor is released early; the real risk lies ahead—if inflation again exceeds expectations, the market will redraw the interest rate path for 2027. With high rates persisting longer, except for $BTC, most assets will face greater valuation and liquidity pressures.
$ZEC $SNDK $PEPE#Post US midterm elections AI data center regulation disagreements trigger market volatility #Nonfarm payrolls upcoming, can employment data strengthen December rate hike expectations? #US midterm elections: Democrats win control of both chambers of Congress #AAOI高速光模块放量，Q3财报能否超预期？ The probability of revenue exceeding consensus is somewhat positive, but the threshold for EPS surpassing expectations is not lower than that for revenue. If a true "beat" occurs, it is unlikely to come from 800G itself (which is already fully priced in), but more likely from a faster-than-conservatively-stated "initial shipment" pace of 1.6T shipments at the end of Q3, or from CATV's profit margin contribution exceeding expectations. Conversely, the biggest downside risk is the simultaneous realization of 100G decline and 800G capacity constraints, causing revenue to barely hit the lower half of guidance and profits to be further compressed by costs. $BTC
In the next 24 hours, Bitcoin's trend requires close attention to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations, the US Dollar Index, US stock market risk appetite, and market capital flows. Short-term judgments should not only consider price fluctuations but also combine trading volume and key support levels to assess bullish and bearish forces.
1. Current Market
As of the latest available data on November 5, Bitcoin is trading around $80,000, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 3.35%. Previously, due to uncertainty from the US midterm elections, BTC once dipped near $75,600, followed by a significant rebound.
The rebound is mainly driven by three factors:
- Net inflows reappeared in the US spot BTC ETF, with a net inflow of about $74.6 million on November 4.
- US stocks warmed up, the dollar weakened, and risk asset sentiment improved.
- Short sellers concentrated on closing positions, further pushing the price rebound.
2. Key Levels for the Next 24 Hours
Level Price
First Resistance $81,300
Strong Resistance $82,000
First Support $79,000
Strong Support $76,500
3. Future Trend
I believe the next 24 hours are more likely to show a volatile but bullish pattern, but whether the rebound can continue still needs observation.
- Bullish: A breakout with volume above $82,000 could further test $84,000.
- Sideways: Repeated consolidation between $79,000 and $82,000.
- Bearish: A drop below $79,000 may retest $76,500.$BTC dropped below $77,000 today, $ETH below $2,300, after $370M in leveraged positions were liquidated in just 60 minutes. Why it happened: 1️⃣ Macro risk-off: US jobless claims fell to 189k — lowest since 1969. Strong jobs = Fed has less reason to ease, and markets are pricing a possible Dec hike. Nasdaq -2.4%, S&P 500 -1.2%. Crypto fell with risk assets, not alone. 2️⃣ Fragile rally: Yesterday's push above $80,000 was mostly short-covering, not fresh buying. ETF inflows were only ~$74M and CoLTH Reduction vs ETF Uptake
In the third quarter, long-term Bitcoin holders reduced their holdings by 248,000 BTC (approximately $17.4 billion), while spot ETFs only net bought 79,800 BTC during the same period—institutions absorbed roughly only one-third.
During BTC's 42.7% rise, reaching $83,570, who did the diamond hands pass their chips to? This might be the most worth-asking question of this market cycle.The US midterm elections saw the Democratic Party take control of both chambers, raising expectations for fiscal expansion. However, SOXL, a triple-leveraged semiconductor product, is more affected by tech regulation and tax trends. My judgment is that short-term sentiment is bearish, and any rebound should be seen as a correction. Currently at 44.73, it has plummeted 31.4% in 24 hours, barely stabilizing near 42.14. The hourly chart is only 1.39% above the low, and the four-hour chart is 58.40% below the high, indicating a weak stop after a sell-off rather than a reversal. The trading volume of 28.905 million shows concentrated selling pressure being released. The order book buy/sell ratio is 1.17, slightly favoring buyers, but the funding rate at 0.0706% remains positive, and open interest at 1.541 million has not significantly decreased, meaning bulls have not conceded, and rebounds are likely to face secondary pressure. Discipline-wise, do not chase shorts or bottom-fish: short at 46.85 on a rebound, stop loss at 48.35, target 43.12; if it directly probes 42.05 with reduced volume, consider light long positions, stop loss at 41.35, target 44.62. Single position size should not exceed 20%, and exit unconditionally if stop loss is hit.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SOXL#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
$SOXL Active Address Divergence
The 30-day moving average of active Bitcoin addresses is only 629,000, down 43% from the peak of 1.1 million in December 2024;
but the daily average on-chain transfer volume has only dropped 5.4% (from 865,000 BTC to 819,000 BTC). Fewer people, but the amount of money moved hasn't decreased.
This rebound approaching $80K is driven by a few large funds; retail investors and new users have not yet returned. "Pullback" is squeezing the post-election excitement out of the crypto space. After the Democrats took control of both houses of Congress, BTC surged to about $80,000, but now it stands at 75,995.4, with that rebound basically wiped out.
For this pullback, I lean more towards the "leveraged long liquidation cascade" side. CoinGlass revealed a concentrated liquidation round of about $460.5 million, with longs accounting for about $432.7 million, roughly 94%. This ratio is more striking than "everyone is seeking safety": the forced exit pressure is clearly concentrated on the same side.
The pullback isn't just BTC: ETH is currently priced at 2,251.68 (about -7.47%), deeper than BTC's roughly -5.44%; SOL is at 90.21. The focus of discussion shouldn't just be that the rebound is gone, but how crowded the long positions are.
There is evidence on the other side as well: the Nasdaq once dropped about 3.6%, overlapping with the crypto and US stock decline period. But I tend to think that the US stock market is the source of pressure, while the concentrated liquidations are the amplifier that deepened the pullback—don't blame the crypto space's own position issues entirely on tech stocks.
How would you prefer to continue the term "pullback": is the main cause "leveraged stampede" or "dragged down by US stocks"? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH $SOL #CircleQ3 revenue exceeds expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume grows by 49%