Post
wesley教授
Influential Creator
又有人问：中东打成这样，沙特 24 小时空袭上百次，避险资金是不是该往比特币和黄金里跑？
这套「打仗利多避险资产」的老剧本，这一轮基本失灵了。逻辑链你顺一遍就懂：中东升级，油价扛着战争溢价，通胀预期被重新顶起来，央行就更不敢降息。本周英国央行刚加了 25 个基点，市场给 12 月美联储加息的概率已经打到八成。
所以这轮战争，市场不是当避险事件在定价，是当「加息理由」在定价。结果就是黄金和 $BTC 经常一起跌，而不是一起涨。别再拿打仗当你多头的救命稻草。
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