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Last night, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index in the US stock market dropped 3.3%. I thought Asia could catch a break, but this morning South Korea took over directly: KOSPI opened down 3%, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both falling over 4%—the entire index dragged down by the semiconductor sector.
Some people backstage are still using the argument "memory shortage until 2028, the strongest fundamentals globally" to prepare for bottom-fishing in memory stocks. I don't deny the fundamentals, but what's being hit now is never the fundamentals; it's the financing pipeline that fuels the AI chain. When that pipeline tightens, no matter how strong the story is, valuations have to take a hit first.
The crack has spread from the US to Asia; this is no longer just a sentiment issue in a single market, but a collective loosening among a class of trades. My stance hasn't changed: at this point, being bearish feels more comfortable than bullish. The heroes who catch the falling knife are often the first to have their accounts wrecked.#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ This is not only a political contest deciding control of Congress but also a critical juncture affecting subsequent fiscal, legislative, and crypto industry fate. This election will renew all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats, with results directly determining future policy direction and regulatory agenda.
This round of elections sees unprecedented crypto industry investment, aiming to push the CLARITY Act into law and define regulatory boundaries between the CFTC and SEC. Crypto-related political action committees have invested about $206 million, lobbying lawmakers vigorously to secure a friendly regulatory framework.
Two scenarios to distinguish: If Republicans hold both chambers, expectations for crypto legislation advance, benefiting BTC; if Democrats regain one or both chambers, regulatory tightening expectations rise, making bill progress harder and likely suppressing the market.
November brings a cluster of macro data: CPI and nonfarm payrolls released simultaneously, combined with Fed rate expectations, multiple variables resonate. Currently, BTC is trading in a narrow range, with funds waiting and watching for the shoe to drop.
Historically, after three midterm elections, BTC has entered a bottoming phase, though the bottom realization cycle shortens each time. Technically, assuming this round is wave four of correction, after the election settles and bearish factors clear, there is a chance to start wave five upward, with the first target at 90000.
But waves are just projections, not certainties. Election results below expectations or a rebound in US Treasury yields could break this bullish scenario.
Key focus: Congress control results, subsequent statements on the CLARITY Act, US Treasury yields, and ETF fund flows. Here's a strange thing: when the coin price drops, everyone looks for reasons, but the answer lies in a number no one watches—the total market cap of stablecoins. It dropped from 270.3 billion to 263.4 billion in one month, with 6.9 billion USD withdrawn.
In plain language: the casino chips have decreased by a round. With fewer chips but the same number of players at the table, every bet is more likely to flip the table. That's why $BTC rises for two days and falls for three, and every rebound falls short.
What does a bull market look like? It's when new chips are brought in truckloads. Now, chips are being taken out truckload by truckload, and this has been going on for over a month without stopping.
Someone asked if it's time to bottom-fish. I don't know, I only know that when chips decrease, catching the falling knife requires more patience.Historically, after every U.S. midterm election, $BTC has experienced a decline.
And the next midterm election is tomorrow.
Will history repeat itself this time? 👀#Triển vọng báo cáo tài chính Palantir: Tăng trưởng cao có thể hỗ trợ định giá cao không No matter how good the earnings report is, it can't drive the stock price up; when it rises too high, institutions will cash out and harvest profits.
Have you noticed that whenever there's good news, someone sells off immediately?
Google, Intel, and SanDisk all had revenue growth, yet their stocks still fell. As long as performance doesn't exceed expectations, it's punished directly. The market's appetite was fed too much by previous gains, so even if the earnings meet the target, the stock price may not rise.
It's not that the fundamentals are bad, but expectations are too high, so when good news comes out, everyone takes the opportunity to take profits.
AI and technology are still developing, but risks need to be watched; sentiment in the US stock market has already weakened. High-volatility assets like BTC and ETH are also easily used for this, and altcoins will fall even more sharply.
Rather than looking at earnings data, it's better to watch capital flows.
Now ordinary good news is no longer effective; the market is not speculating on earnings growth but on capital flows. Let's first look at a number that's easy to overlook: the total market cap of stablecoins, which has dropped from $270.3 billion on October 1st to $263.4 billion. In just over a month, $6.9 billion has left this market. This isn't a single-day spike; it's a continuous gentle downward slope.
Why is this more important than the candlestick chart? Because the stablecoin market cap roughly equals the cash available on exchanges. When it rises, it means money is flowing in from outside; when it falls, it means someone has exchanged for fiat and left. Price is the result; stablecoin market cap is closer to the cause.
Analyst CW8900 puts it plainly: bull markets usually come with capital inflows, but now inflows have stopped, and there has been a continuous net outflow for over a month, while $BTC is in a bearish phase. When these two things overlap, the nature changes — it's not high-level oscillation or turnover, but a shrinking capital pool.
The mechanism is also easy to understand. When the pool shrinks, the same buy orders can push prices higher, but the same sell orders create deeper dips. So rebounds in this phase tend to be quick and shallow because there is no new money to take over. A true reversal usually doesn't start with a big bullish candle but with the stablecoin market cap stopping its decline and then rising continuously for several weeks — that's when the money is truly coming back.
One point worth considering: losing $6.9 billion out of a $270 billion pool isn't a large magnitude, but the direction hasn't changed for a month. The destructive power of a trend lies not in magnitude but in persistence. Instead of focusing on daily charts, it's better to check this stablecoin curve weekly to see when $BTC can rise.Be patient with dollar-cost averaging, it's time to go all in.
To be honest, still considering the Nasdaq 100 as the "best global asset" is somewhat path-dependent. The Nasdaq is essentially an AI cluster, with a few tech giants occupying an increasingly large weight in the index. Its valuation already factors in the most optimistic growth expectations for the next few years. AI capital expenditure has entered a crazy burn phase, and if profit realization falls even slightly short of expectations, both valuation and earnings forecasts could be hit hard.
Looking at the A-shares market, the real industrial advantages are becoming clearer: a complete industrial chain, manufacturing scale, engineer dividends, plus continuous upgrades in industries like new energy, robotics, semiconductors, computing power, and high-end manufacturing. Many assets have undergone years of valuation digestion, and market expectations remain relatively low, which actually provides room for a double boost of profit improvement plus valuation re-rating.
The Nasdaq has great companies but is too expensive with overly optimistic expectations; A-shares have increasingly strong industries but valuations have not fully caught up yet. One is overdrawing the future, the other is waiting for revaluation. At this point, I’d rather bet on the revaluation of Chinese assets than take the last baton for the Nasdaq. [Cheer][Cheer][Cheer]BTC is currently trading around $77,000, down 1.4% in 24 hours, struggling near $78,000 trying to recover. Technically, it shows both oversold conditions and divergence. The daily RSI is at 38.97, sellers still dominate, but the 4-hour MACD has formed a golden cross, indicating improving buying momentum, though both lines remain below the zero axis. The first resistance to break above is $78,219; surpassing this level could open space toward $79,485 and $80,508. On the downside, $77,761 and $76,460 are two progressively stronger supports. Looking at a longer timeframe, the 50-week moving average at $75,728 has held for seven consecutive weeks, which is the last evidence that the bull market structure has not yet collapsed. The news is the real driver behind this round of decline. The Binance hack on October 29, involving about $6.3 billion, slammed BTC from above $80,000 down to $76,173, with over $1.5 billion liquidated in the derivatives market. Then on October 30, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $643 million in a single day, the largest since June; BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $233 million, and no product recorded net inflows that day. The Fed's hawkish stance and cooling rate cut expectations have raised risk-free yields, directly increasing the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin. The daily close direction at $78,219 is more worth watching than the 4-hour golden cross. The hack is a clear factor, ETFs are withdrawing, and the 50-week moving average is the bulls' last anchor—if it holds, there is still room for oversold recovery; a daily close below $77,761 means $76,460 is the next real test.$ZEC This morning I compared BTC and ZEC side by side: both are falling, but the ways they fall are completely different. One still has people adding in, the other has fewer and fewer. I'll set ETH and SOL aside for now and discuss them after this.
First, look at BTC: around 76811, down 1.91% in one day, position size 53.886 billion, with a 1.52% increase in position size in one day; liquidations of 91.57 million in one day, the highest among the four, yet the position size did not decrease but increased. The liquidated positions were taken over by others, this is called turnover.
Now look at ZEC: around 1136, down 8.02% in one day, more than four times BTC's drop; position size only 2.33 billion, down 3.75% in one day; liquidations of 14.52 million in one day, about one-sixth of BTC's. Not many people were liquidated, people are withdrawing on their own, this is called ebb.
The cost basis on both sides is similar: BTC's capital cost is 0.0109%, ZEC's is 0.0101%, leverage is equally expensive; the divergence is not in cost but in staying or leaving. ETH and SOL are in the middle: ETH down 0.94%, most resistant to the drop, but position size decreased by 0.90%; SOL down 2.66%, position size still increased by 0.62%. The whole network longs vs shorts is 49.11 to 50.89, all four positions are close to the ground in one hour, and the market hasn't decided yet.
My rating is straightforward: if you want to take over, stand on BTC's side, there's still money to catch on the dip; for ZEC, before its daily position turns positive, I treat any rebound as a chance to reduce positions, not a bottom-fishing signal. With this comparison laid out, don't pick the wrong side.昨晚盯盘到快凌晨，屏幕忽然安静了一下，BTC又去探了77,273那个位置。 这波下探真的结束了吗？ 那一瞬间我盯着K线，心里其实咯噔了一下。BTC重新摸到77,442附近，24小时跌了0.89%，高点才78,867，低点77,273。4小时多空比从2.29抬到2.40，未平仓合约26.03亿美金。数字看着不大，但结构里有故事：过去4小时多头被清掉192万U，空头只爆了34.6万U。这不是简单的洗盘，更像一次定向挤压，杠杆多头正好被推到最难受的位置。 更让我在意的是，新低之后连77,601都没收回去。这个细节比跌幅本身重要。它说明抄底的手在变慢，试探性的买盘不够坚决，盘面情绪从"急着抢反弹"滑向"先看看再说"。恐惧不是尖叫式的，而是沉默式的，这种情绪往往更磨人。 ETH那边安静得有点反常。2,269，24小时只跌0.04%，高点2,318，低点2,248。上下都没力气，像在等BTC给方向。ETH不动，山寨就少了主心骨，风险偏好也很难真正打开。这时候资金更愿意躲在确定性里，而不是去赌弹性。 偏多的路径其实也清晰：多头清洗之后，如果BTC能重新站稳77,601上方，空头回补会带来一段修复，情$ZEC $ZEC Update Day 15: Only 3% left to the liquidation line
Yesterday the post still showed an unrealized loss of $390,000, but this morning it has turned into an unrealized loss of $2,350,000. $ZEC has dropped from yesterday's high of $1,284 down to around $1,151 now, a 24-hour drop of about 5.5%.
Based on the position opened on October 20: the cross margin position of 15,000 coins has an unrealized loss of about $990,000, the isolated margin position of 14,800 coins has an unrealized loss of about $1,360,000, totaling an unrealized loss of about $2,350,000. Compared to the peak unrealized profit of $3,550,000 on the 11th, it has retraced about $5,900,000.
More critically, the isolated margin liquidation price is about $1,120, and the current price is less than 3% above it. The last time it approached 6%, the post reached a series high of 22,200; this time it directly hit 3%.
Assuming the position has not changed since opening, actual position changes have not yet been confirmed. The NU7 upgrade is imminent (around November 5), and the position, liquidation, and upgrade lines are converging at the same point.今天（11 月 3 日）美国中期选举投票，35 个参议员席位和全部 435 个众议员席位改选。币圈为什么要在意？因为 CLARITY Act（加密市场结构法案）的命运，今晚见分晓。 1. 参议院归谁：银行委员会主席换不换 现在参议院 53:47（共和党:民主党），民主党需净增 4 席才能翻盘。这直接决定参议院银行委员会主席：共和党保住→Tim Scott 连任，对行业友好；民主党翻盘→Elizabeth Warren 上台，她是坚定的加密怀疑派，一直主导反对 CLARITY。这是今晚对币圈最直接的一个变量。 2. CLARITY 法案：60 票门槛才是真正的墙 众议院版本去年 7 月已过（294:134），参议院银行委员会今年 5 月也过了（15:9），但 9 月 15 日参议院程序投票 49:50，没达到 60 票门槛。关键点：60 票这个门槛不随多数党改变——共和党需净增 7 席、民主党需净增 13 席，谁都够不着。所以看的不是谁赢，而是赢完之后两党愿不愿意跨党合作；明年 1 月 3 日前不过，法案作废重来。 3. 几个关键参议员选战 Texas（Paxton vs Talaric币安净流出升到58亿美元，BTC却逆势涨0.48%。这是挤兑结束后的修复，还是市场对风险已经失去敏感？ 一、新闻。据公开报道，币安恢复提款后，净流出规模升至约58亿美元，另有报道显示THORChain因区块重组问题暂停部分兑换，拖慢黑客资金转移。价格方面，BTC报78,355.7美元，24小时涨0.48%、近一周仍跌2.58%，20日低点为76,265.2美元。交易所事件仍在影响资金、链上与市场三条线。 二、资金影响。BTC ETF最新单日净流入3,470万美元，5日净流入4.138亿美元，10日净流入1.769亿美元。美元指数报101.92、日内涨0.04%，黄金涨0.42%。ETF没有转为流出，说明配置资金尚未撤退；但单日流入已明显收窄，也谈不上风险偏好全面恢复。 三、BTC含义。净流出本身不等于币安资不抵债，它同时可能代表用户把币提回自托管。真正值得警惕的是赔付、储备和链上追偿能否形成闭环。价格能在事件中转涨，说明最恐慌的抛售暂时过去；但周线仍为负，当前更像风险定价后的修复，而不是新趋势确认。 四、观察指标。我接下来盯四个指标：一是币安净流出是否继续扩大；二是BTC ETF单日流Brothers, the midterm elections are tomorrow
Here is Bitcoin's performance after the last 3 midterm elections, scaled to today's price:
2014: dropped 48% within 71 days → about $40,500
2018: dropped 51% within 39 days → about $38,400
2022: dropped 15% within 13 days → about $66,300
These lows were all bear market bottoms
One year after the election: +24% / +45% / +92%Storage results release, can the sector see a recovery?
The fundamentals remain strong (shortage + high profits + locked production capacity), but stock prices have already priced in concerns about the cycle. This round of intensive performance verification confirms the current prosperity but has not completely dispelled the "peak" trading sentiment. The sector has room for an oversold rebound, but the sustainability and strength depend on subsequent price guidance, AI spending data, and risk appetite, rather than the quarterly performance itself. Operationally, it is necessary to distinguish between leading original manufacturers and mid-to-lower stream elasticity, and be wary of amplified volatility.
The above is an objective summary based on public information and does not constitute investment advice. The market is highly volatile; it is recommended to make independent judgments based on your own risk tolerance.$BTC The US midterm elections vote today, with results gradually coming out tomorrow morning Taipei time. Looking at the OKX daily chart, the BTC volatility on the “day after vote counting” for the past 4 US elections:
· 2018 midterms: 1.6%, only 0.6 times the usual
· 2020 election: 5.5%, 1.5 times
· 2022 midterms: 16.6%, 5.8 times, but that day was the FTX crash, not the election
· 2024 election: 10.2%, 3.2 times
Large fluctuations caused by the election itself only appear in presidential election years; for the two midterms, one was quieter than usual, the other was a black swan hitting the date.
Currently BTC is about 77,150, with a 30-day average daily volatility of 2.4%, only about 1% above the October low of 76,265. If it scans the previous low tomorrow morning, it is more likely due to leverage being liquidated rather than the election changing the trend.
Midterm elections are noise; 76,265 is the signal.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX BTC-USDT daily (UTC), sample only 4 times #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 如果把这轮下跌只当成"鲸鱼恐慌"，可能会漏掉真正该管的东西。 你的仓位，是按情绪在动，还是按规则在动？ 凌晨三点闹钟没响，倒是定投机器人安安静静替我买了一笔，醒来看到成交记录那一下还挺奇妙。400 USDG，均价 77,512.8 美元，攒下 0.00516043 枚 BTC。金额不大，但它记录的是一个没被情绪带走的决定。🌙 有意思的是人心变化的速度。85K 的时候满屏都在聊 150K，跌到 77K，喊 50K 的声音又冒出来。价格只挪了一格，叙事就换了一整套，这说明眼下交易的不是基本面，是情绪和仓位的舒适度。 从板块强弱看，这种阶段 BTC 往往是第一道防线：它跌，山寨跌得更快；它横住，资金才敢回头看 ETH 和题材。所以我不急着判断方向，先看风险管理这条线有没有被踩坏。偏多的路径是，恐慌盘出清后 BTC 先稳住，风险偏好慢慢回来，ETH 跟上，山寨才有轮动的土壤。偏空的风险是，如果 77K 附近只是中继而不是缓冲，高杠杆多头继续被清，那山寨的补跌会比想象中更钝更久。 我自己的做法没变：不碰合约，不追情绪，不因为一根阴线改计划。定投的意义从来不是买在最低，而是让决策不被凌晨三点的恐$CORE 🚨 The hard fork recovery is complete, but trust restoration has only just begun.
On November 2nd, the Core network recovered 68,146,177.22 CORE from three attacker addresses through a hard fork, accounting for about 70.22% of the involved assets. The key points are: no transaction rollbacks, no additional issuance, and no change in total supply. This restraint in handling is more telling than the amount recovered.
However, the incident involved about 97,045,600 CORE, with approximately 28,899,400 still pending recovery; exchange-frozen assets are still being pursued, and recovered funds have not yet been distributed to users. Beyond the numbers, the market cares more about whether the process is verifiable.
I judge that short-term sentiment will be soothed by the "70% recovery," but mid-term trust depends on three things: whether the remaining assets can continue to be recovered; whether b14g's user refund plan is fair and transparent; and whether CoreDAO's ecosystem support, responsibility boundaries, and funding sources are clearly explained.
So my first reaction is not to celebrate, but to see if the commitments can be fulfilled. Crises amplify the ecosystem's weaknesses and expose the quality of governance. What do you think, which better restores confidence: asset recovery or transparent communication?
Personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 【LSK burns 105 million tokens in one year, even abandoning its own public chain. Can this transformation succeed?】
Lisk has completely changed its track this time. On November 2nd, Lisk Chain officially shut down, and about 5.2397 million LSK tokens remaining will be burned. Along with the 100 million tokens burned in September, the total supply has been reduced by over 105 million tokens, bringing the total $LSK supply down to 300 million, with the inflation rate dropping to zero.
Lisk has given up continuing to operate its own Layer 2 and is shifting to enterprise financial services, attempting to integrate accounts, fiat and stablecoin payments, approvals, and portfolio management into one platform. LSK has also transformed from an original ecosystem token into a platform loyalty token, planned to be used for enterprise rewards and platform fee payments starting in 2027.
The reduction in supply certainly helps improve token scarcity, but 5.23 million tokens only account for about 1.75% of the total supply. What truly determines LSK's future value is whether the new business can generate sustainable revenue and whether that revenue can translate into real token demand. Burning solves the supply issue, but enterprise clients and actual usage are the demand issues. If the new platform fails to take off, no matter how scarce the token is, it will just be a token that nobody needs.Binance has released the latest snapshot of its zero-knowledge reserve proof, allowing users to independently verify a 1:1 backing of assets including BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, etc.; assets lost in the previous record-breaking hack have been replenished to about 95%. Source: The Block.
In simple terms, this is about closing the trust gap, not new positive news. PoR lets users check the underlying accounts themselves, and the replenishment to 95% indicates the funding gap has been largely filled, significantly reducing the likelihood of a bank-run style withdrawal. For BNB, this feels more like stopping the bleeding rather than a catalyst.
Two scenarios to observe: one is when the remaining gap will be fully replenished, and the other is whether PoR snapshots can be updated frequently rather than released only on special occasions. Which do you care more about—the progress of gap replenishment, or the frequency of snapshot updates? Tom Lee suggested in an interview that the current sell-off in the AI sector has most likely reached the bottom area. His core logic is that the current AI track is supply-constrained rather than suffering from overcapacity, and the industry's long-term demand framework has not been disrupted.
An interesting observation: even with consecutive negative shocks, risk assets have not continued to break down, indicating that marginal selling pressure has been continuously released. However, he also specifically warned that the bottom area itself is full of uncertainty and should not be simply understood as an immediate reversal; there is still the possibility of repeated downward probes.
In my view, this is more a judgment on sentiment and chip distribution levels. Whether a rebound can ultimately occur depends on two things: first, earnings fulfillment on the financial report side, and second, the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations. If inflation rises again and rate cut expectations are delayed, even if chips are cleared, the rebound space will be suppressed.
Currently, it is not suitable to directly heavily bet on a reversal. You can wait for two confirmation signals: the sector no longer follows negative news to hit new lows, and funds begin to flow back into leading stocks. The bottom game has a low tolerance for errors; it is better to wait for the turning point confirmation than to bottom fish prematurely and gamble on the lowest point.#BTC continues to face pressure, with capital and market trends diverging
During the hour around 1 AM Beijing time, SOL perpetual contracts dropped from 93.38 to 91.52, and BTC also dipped. This was less than a day before the US midterm election voting.
I just reviewed the OKEx forced liquidation orders; almost all liquidations in that hour were longs: about 67 BTC, 2,525 ETH, and 25,600 SOL, with shorts only a small fraction. The long liquidations for these three coins in that hour exceeded the total of the previous 12 hours combined.
At first, I thought it was due to election news. But no news came out; it was just a timing coincidence, so don’t blame the election for this.
The drop wasn’t actually large, BTC’s decline was less than 1%. The forced liquidations clustered in one hour indicate many were holding leveraged positions waiting for a result, but since nothing happened, the longs got shaken out first.
In the next two days, news will only get denser. If you want to bet on the outcome, don’t set your liquidation price too close to last night’s low; reduce your leverage by one level first.
Last night, BTC’s lowest hourly close was 76,667. If it breaks below that before the vote count is out, I’ll admit I underestimated this post.Can $AMD's earnings report turn the tide and save the current tech stock downturn?
The entire semiconductor sector is currently in a slump. After Intel's earnings shock, memory and AI chips have collectively faced sell-offs. The market is pinning its hopes on the upcoming AMD earnings report, expecting it to reverse the sector's decline. However, relying on a single earnings report to directly "save the market" is very challenging.
✅ Positive factors that could boost confidence
The market's core focus is on the commercial rollout of the Helios rack-level AI system. AMD has secured gigawatt-level deployment orders from top clients like OpenAI, Meta, Anthropic, and Azure. Institutions expect the earnings report to confirm AI chip revenue growth and Helios shipment progress. If revenue, gross margin, and next quarter guidance all significantly exceed expectations, AMD and the entire AI chip sector could see a short-term rebound after hours, repairing the current extremely pessimistic market sentiment.
⚠️ Core constraints making it difficult to truly save the market
1. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations are the underlying factor suppressing growth stock valuations. A single company's earnings report is unlikely to change the systemic pressure caused by U.S. Treasury yields and rate hike expectations.
2. Sector confidence has already been damaged. Intel's earnings shock has made investors more cautious about semiconductor earnings guidance. Even if AMD's data is impressive, it is difficult to directly reverse the downward trend of the entire memory and chip sector.
3. Expectations have already been priced in. If guidance only slightly meets expectations and does not reach the market's most optimistic forecasts, a "good news sell-off" with a spike and subsequent fall is likely.【Palantir Revenue Surges 96%, Commercial Revenue Surpasses Government Orders for the First Time】
$xPLTR Q3 revenue reached $2.313 billion, a year-over-year increase of 96%, with GAAP earnings per share of $0.44. U.S. commercial revenue hit $984 million, surpassing government business revenue of $953 million for the first time. The market previously viewed it as a software company reliant on government and military contracts, but now enterprise clients are becoming the new growth engine.
The underlying logic is that enterprises are starting to move AI from chat tools into actual business operations. Palantir's AIP platform can connect internal enterprise data, AI models, and business processes, enabling AI to truly participate in production, supply chain, and decision-making. U.S. commercial revenue has grown nearly 30% quarter-over-quarter for two consecutive quarters, with an adjusted operating margin of 62%, indicating strong monetization capability. The full-year revenue guidance has also been raised to above $8.53 billion.
A detail in the earnings report: the growth rate of total contract value for U.S. commercial orders dropped from over 153% last quarter to 11%, and some large orders now have shorter durations than before. Despite impressive revenue, the cooling order growth is also why the stock price fell nearly 3% in after-hours trading following the earnings release.
I remain optimistic about Palantir's long-term AI commercialization capabilities. The market's current valuation already includes very high growth expectations; what needs to be proven next is whether enterprise orders can continue to expand.
#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 很多人盯着“巴菲特买谷歌更便宜”这句话，却忽略了一个扎心事实：$GOOGL 对伯克希尔是永续资金的一环，对普通散户却可能是全部弹药。当年段永平650买腾讯，有人600跟进去，自以为比大佬更精明；结果段永平能在550、400、300一路加仓，跌到200还敢拿，靠的是稳定股息现金流做后盾。而600进场的小散，子弹早已打光，深套之后扛不住时间与心理的双重碾压。💡 这不是技术问题，是资金性质问题。大资金玩的是“永续”，普通人玩的是“有限”。盲目模仿大佬抄底，本质是拿自己的短板去复制别人的长板。真正的高手不炫耀指标多复杂、战法多花哨，而是懂得耐心等时间兑现收益。市场没来时隐忍蛰伏，机会来了死死咬住，吃下一个完整周期——这才是本事。$BTC $ETH 的持有逻辑同样如此，输家多数不是看不懂市场，而是耐不住孤独、等不到属于自己的行情。 眼下宏观变量正在搅动预期：非农数据来袭，12月加息路径是否生变，直接牵动风险资产的节奏。资金性质决定持仓底气，这条线在$BTC 和$ETH 上体现得尤为明显——永续资金可以越跌越买，杠杆资金只能被波动清洗。当市场把注意力全放在“抄底点位”时，真正的分歧其实在“谁能扛Increasing holdings by 83%, many people see this move by the Ohio Teachers' Retirement System as a bullish signal from institutions. On the contrary, I think it's too hasty to use this as proof of a large influx of funds.
Looking at it from another angle: a position value of $14.4 million is limited when placed in a $110 billion market; the purchase is in Strategy stocks, which cannot be directly equated to Bitcoin spot buying. My judgment is that the narrative is more positive than the actual capital impact. I will focus on the actual exposure and not get excited chasing the increase.Let me first make a straightforward calculation: fewer coins in exchanges does not necessarily mean more buying pressure. According to this CoinDesk report, Bitcoin traders are eyeing a rebound opportunity after the midterm elections, with bulls watching short positions, exchange withdrawals, and key price levels; however, the report does not specify the scale of outflows, so it's still unclear how tight the supply really is.
I think this is somewhat bullish for $BTC, but it’s not a confirmed rebound yet. Withdrawals indicate a tightening of tradable supply, but that doesn’t directly equate to selling pressure disappearing; if demand doesn’t keep up, less supply alone may not be enough to push prices higher. In my estimation, only if shorts cover heavily could that fuel a rebound, so the election event itself shouldn’t be taken as a reason for price increases.
My approach is to be cautious and continue monitoring withdrawal trends and key price levels to see if they corroborate each other, rather than rushing to bet on a post-election rally. Faced with this news, would you wait for stronger signals or be willing to take the risk and bet on a rebound early?#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC $ETH Still need to short if it's a short
First take a small profit, then pull down the average price of long positions
Big players and hackers are all swapping ETH, but I'm still short
Not contradicting, just taking a wave first, then lowering the cost of long positions
In the past two days, I saw a wallet
Swapped over 27,000 ETH with stablecoins in 5 hours
Binance hacker also swapped more than 130 altcoins into over 120,000 ETH
An institutional boss said the stolen ETH only dropped 4% this time, last year it dropped 20% in a week, meaning it's still a bull market
I think it's just that no one has started selling yet
$BTC is also diverging here
Saylor (Strategy founder) bought another batch last week at an average price over 80,000, now still below 80,000
But the US spot premium has been negative for 38 consecutive days
Big players are buying, US retail investors are not buying $ETH DEX Flow Capture Battle: Only Those Who Can Capture "Real Users" Deserve Market Share
This round of capital overflow tests not who shouts the loudest, but who can hold onto real users. DEXs that only attract speculative players will mostly have to give back once the hype dies down.
HYPE captures the most solidly, with its share rising in sync with TVL, but the concern lies in the fact that a significant portion of past buybacks were placed in custodial accounts rather than truly burned, so the circulating supply hasn't actually shrunk. Overheated early speculation also suppresses the price; a rising share does not mean it’s safe to chase higher.
ASTER takes a product iteration and volume-grabbing approach, using mechanisms like HIP-3 to lower fees and explore new markets, aiming to carve out a piece of the cake under Hyperliquid’s shadow. However, the claim window is open until 11/28, so potential selling pressure has not fully released, and TVL has noticeably dropped from its peak. Its chip structure and the window period make it the most strained in capturing users.
UNI’s approach is the most stable: as the main AMM on Robinhood Chain, with v2/v3/v4 and UniswapX fully integrated, U.S. stock users wanting to enter compliantly amid Binance overflow can directly land in Uniswap pools. It captures the on-chain conversion of traditional entry users and is the least likely to be dumped due to unlocking. If it doesn’t reclaim $7, consider it hasn’t completed pricing yet. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 The whale who shorted 250,000 SOL on-chain is about to crack.
A week ago, this guy was making a killing, but now he's lost more than half of his profits, with the liquidation price hanging at $123.
The shorts are now holding on by paying interest out of pocket. If the market pushes up just a bit more, triggering the forced liquidation at $123, the longs can immediately pump the price up.
Chasing shorts at this level is just fueling the market makers.
#SOL
$SOL
👇#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化
On November 3, U.S. tech stocks continued to sell off, with the Nasdaq 100 falling into a technical correction. Semiconductors, optical communications, and storage sectors all plunged. Intel dropped another 8.8%, optical module leader Marvell fell 32% over three days, Lumentum plummeted 18.6% in a single day, AMD declined 7.5%, and storage stocks like Seagate and Micron broadly fell; most crypto-related stocks weakened, with only MSTR slightly up.
This round is a typical cross-asset deleveraging trend, with stocks, gold, and crypto all sold indiscriminately. This is not the traditional safe-haven logic but rather institutions liquidating positions to meet margin pressures and raise cash. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell back to 4.93%, but the underlying pressure from high interest rates remains unresolved. The simultaneous weakness in gold and silver confirms that funds are not inclined to allocate to safe havens, prioritizing deleveraging and liquidity preservation.
Currently, leveraged funds are accelerating their liquidation; the triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF SOXL has been cut in half from its peak. There is repair expectation in November, but it requires sufficient washing out of bottom-fishing floating positions. The core points to watch are: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield holding below 5%, and AMD and Nvidia earnings reports verifying the resilience of AI demand. At this stage, it is not advisable to bottom-fish prematurely; priority should be given to waiting for right-side signals $BTC $ETH Anthropic hasn't gone public yet, but its valuation has already been discounted. Institutions have lowered their IPO valuation expectations from 2 trillion to between 1.5 trillion and 1.6 trillion. Note, this isn't a stock price drop; it's the primary market adjusting its own expectations before pricing.
Why the adjustment? The signals from the secondary market are clear. The Nasdaq index fell about 10% from its peak last week, Intel dropped 29% in a single day, and Alphabet's market cap evaporated by about $500 billion. These three figures tell the same story: money is flowing out of AI trades, and it's happening quickly.
Investors have raised three concerns. First, AI exposure is too concentrated, so a single correction could trigger a systemic withdrawal; second, there are real obstacles for data centers, not just financial but also political and regulatory; third, there's no answer yet on how long it will take for cloud service providers' AI investments to turn profitable.
The third point is the most critical. The first two are about sentiment, the third is about the ledger. The money for AI infrastructure has already been spent, and if revenue realization lags expectations, valuation models must be recalculated. Anthropic hasn't even finalized its target valuation or share sale size, indicating it is also waiting for the market to provide answers.
This logic will extend to the blockchain. AI narrative assets like $TAO, $FET, and $RENDER rely on the same primary market imagination for pricing. When top AI company valuations are revised downward, the risk premium for on-chain AI sectors rises accordingly. It's not that the business is worse; buyers simply demand higher compensation.This morning someone asked me: It has dropped to 76,000, can I buy the dip? I said yes, but not this morning.
Yesterday I bet with someone that this week it would first touch 76,300; this morning the lowest was 76,664, about 300 dollars short, so the bet is not settled yet. But what’s more worth mentioning is this price range itself: around 76,300 to 76,700, it was tested once on October 30, once the day before yesterday, and again this morning—three times without breaking through, and the trading volume is shrinking day by day—from 24,000 down to 12,600 yesterday. Fewer and fewer sellers, it’s less a crash and more that no one is willing to sell at this price anymore.
But “not falling further” and “about to rise” are two different things. The daily RSI is 27, the 3-day RSI is 25, both in the oversold zone, but above there are three moving averages at 78,200, 78,800, and 79,000, each pressing down the price; every rebound is pushed back down.
My judgment: this range will most likely consolidate sideways, not a V-shaped rebound. If it can’t hold 76,300, then it will drop to 75,000. The easiest mistake to make today is to heavily bet on direction, and the next is to add positions just because the price turns a little green.
#BTC #ETH #contract#With the US midterm elections approaching, which outcomes are worth watching?
How the US midterm elections will impact the crypto space
$ETH
They will determine whether Trump's crypto agenda can be legislatively solidified, so the crypto community treats it as a policy catalyst.
Three outcomes correspond to three pricing scenarios
Republicans hold both chambers: CLARITY Act reboot, advancement of the CLARITY Act, expanded CFTC authority, continuation of stablecoin regulations → expected to be the most bullish. The year-end median BTC forecast from the survey is 90,800. ETH/DeFi/crypto stocks show the greatest resilience.
Democrats sweep both chambers: legislative gridlock, hearings and investigations into crypto companies, restrictions on interest-bearing stablecoins, scrutiny of Trump-related projects → regulatory discount returns. Median BTC expected at 76,450. Altcoins and COIN/CRCL expected to fall first.
Split government (most likely): bills hard to pass, regulation relies on SEC/CFTC administrative rules, short-term “sell-off exhaustion rebound,” but no institutional benefits. Median BTC at 84,100, mainly range-bound.
Real transmission to the market
It’s not “who wins, BTC rises,” but rather:
Pre-election uncertainty suppresses volatility, with $11 billion options expiry plus election overlap, spikes will be amplified.
After results, first trade the "expectation gap" — Democrats exceed expectations → low open; Republicans hold → rebound above 80,000;
The real impact comes later: new Congress seats decide 2027 CLARITY, stablecoin interest payment bans, SEC personnel, and tax reform.1. AMD's earnings report tonight has a 90% probability of "numbers exceeding expectations," but there might be another sell-off after hours.
It's not that I'm bearish; the chip structure has changed.
Market consensus:
Revenue 13.09 billion (YoY +41.5%)
EPS 1.95 (YoY +62%)
Data center expected at 8.2-8.3 billion, continuing a doubling surge
In Q2, data center revenue already reached 6.7 billion, accounting for 58% of revenue. AI chips (MI350/MI450+Helios) and EPYC are the core drivers. EPS has beaten expectations for the past 4 quarters, so this "on-paper beat" is almost certain.
However—the stock price dropped 26% in 10 days, from 658 to 466, indicating the market is not satisfied with just a "passing grade":
What the market wants is Lisa Su to clearly address three things👇
Whether the 2027 data center "more than doubling" can be quantified (sell-side expects 74-75 billion, buy-side bets 80-90 billion)
Whether Helios rack shipments will truly ramp up in Q4 or remain just promises
Whether TSMC N2 + HBM capacity will be a bottleneck or not
Conclusion:
Numbers: exceed expectations (confidence 90%)
After-hours trend: guidance not aggressive enough → good news fully priced, expect continued shakeout
The real explosive point: only if "2027 guidance upgrade + major customer GW-level deployment" happen simultaneously will the current valuation be justified#AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 $PLTR 调整后每股0.44，GAAP也是0.44，一致预期0.41。前瞻里说，这家的调整后连SpaceX的涨跌都算，名义税率又跟实际交的差得远，GAAP跟调整后会差不多，这次两个数一模一样。 账对一下。前瞻粗算SpaceX这季要倒扣每股0.6分钱左右。实际其他收入一整行是负2,578万，按23%扣税摊到每股，粗算0.8分左右，二季度这一行还是正9,184万。调整后营业利润14.27亿，比指引上限12.96亿多了10.1%，前瞻说超5%就够。费用其实比指引隐含的多花了一点，8.87亿对8.68亿，营收多出来的部分盖住了。 美国商业营收9.84亿，第一次超过美国政府的9.53亿。前瞻里说，三季度这一行要是不到9亿，四季度就得做到11.65亿以上，这一关过了。全年美国商业指引又提到35.59亿以上，前三季做了23.43亿，四季度至少要12.16亿，比三季度再多两成多。 正股收在178.34，美东18点20分左右盘后到172.50，跌了3.3%，没领这份成绩单的情。☀️ 大叔早报｜11.03 🪙 Crypto｜BTC跌破77,000，风险偏好仍在承压 BTC报约76,700美元，日内跌幅约1.4%—1.7%，24小时低点在76,500美元附近。 大叔观点： BTC走弱与美股科技股承压发生在同一个风险偏好收缩窗口，但不能简单归因于苹果财报。短线先看76,500美元能否守住，失守再观察75,000美元附近的承接。选举前，仓位管理比猜方向更重要。 🇺🇸 美股隔夜｜苹果双超预期，市场仍在追问增长质量 苹果FY2026 Q4营收约1,145亿美元，同比增长约12%，EPS 2.10美元，均高于市场预期。但EPS中包含约0.05美元关税退款收益，毛利率47.9%也受到关税退款提振。苹果股价盘后先跌后有收窄，不能简单概括为最终跳水。 美股收盘分化：道指**+0.41%，标普-0.51%，纳指-1.07%，费半-3.37%**。半导体和AI相关个股承压，Lumentum、迈威尔、英特尔、AMD均出现明显下跌。中国资产相对抗跌，阿里巴巴上涨。 大叔观点： 这轮AI交易正在从“有没有增长”，转向“增长能否持续、投入能否兑现利润”。苹果的业绩并不差，但关税退款对Has $OKB OKEx exchange ever had coins stolen in its history?
Conclusion upfront: There is no conclusive public record of a "vault-level" coin theft incident on the OKEx/OKX main trading platform; however, it has experienced several "related security incidents" in its history, each of a different nature and should be considered separately.
1. The most easily confused 2020 "withdrawal suspension" — not a theft
On October 16, 2020, OKEx suddenly suspended all withdrawals for about 5 weeks, causing widespread panic in the market.
Reason: Some private key holders cooperated with public security investigations and were temporarily unreachable, making multi-signature authorization impossible.
Nature: Private key management/centralization risk, not a hacker breach of the system.
Result: Withdrawals resumed at the end of November; the official statement claimed reserves were always 100% sufficient.
⚠️ This incident is often mistakenly reported as "OKEx was hacked," but it is completely different.
2. Actual "coin loss" related incidents
1. August 2020: ETC 51% attack indirect loss
Attackers controlled Ethereum Classic network hash power to perform double-spend deposits on OKEx, stealing about $5.6 million ETC.
This was a chain-level 51% attack, not a hack of OKEx wallets.
OKEx blocked the attacker’s addresses, suspended ETC deposits and withdrawals, and absorbed the loss themselves.
2. December 2023: OKX DEX aggregator contract compromised
The private key of the abandoned DEX market maker contract’s proxy admin leaked; attackers upgraded the malicious contract and transferred assets from 18 authorized addresses.
OKX official statement: user asset loss about $370,000, fully compensated.
Third-party estimates (PeckShield, etc.): up to about $2.7 million.
Note: The incident involved DEX product line contracts, not main exchange user balances.
3. June 2024: Individual user accounts hacked
Multiple users’ assets were emptied; investigation found forged judicial investigation documents were used to obtain customer personal data, then bypassed risk controls to change binding verification methods.
This was social engineering plus process loopholes, not an on-chain vault breach.
OKX subsequently compensated users and improved facial recognition and judicial cooperation verification.
4. 2019–2020: Users exploited system bugs to "steal coins"
During a 2019 system malfunction, a user (Deng Mouming from Sichuan) exploited a pricing error to alter low-priced coins into BTC and withdraw them. OKEx later sued to recover losses worth millions. This was an internal logic flaw plus user misconduct, not an external hacker theft.
3. Industry position comparison
Exchange
Major historical coin theft
Bitfinex
$72 million in 2016
KuCoin
$285 million in 2020
Bybit
$1.46 billion in 2025
OKX/OKEx
No confirmed vault-level theft on main platform
Summary materials generally classify it as "no major user fund hacking incidents since 2017."
4. How to understand this conclusion
✅ What has not happened: Main exchange cold wallets hacked and billions in user assets wiped out overnight.
⚠️ What has happened: Chain-level attacks with collateral losses, DeFi/DEX contract permission leaks, account social engineering thefts, private key holder single point risks.
💡 The real risk lies in centralized governance: The 2020 withdrawal freeze shows that as long as private keys are centralized and key holders have issues, users cannot access assets in the short term. $AAPL 这季每股2.10，华尔街估1.98到1.99。新闻稿里写了，其中0.05是关税退款，扣掉也还有2.05，这次是实打实地超。前瞻里说每股超预期不难，难的是12月季度，两头都说中了。毛利率47.9%，含约1个点退款，剔掉是46.9%左右，比指引中值46.5%高了0.4个点，9月季度本身交得不差。 问题在下一季。CFO给12月季度的毛利率是45%到46%，华尔街平均估46.3%。把剔掉退款的毛利率排在一起看，3月季度49.3%，6月季度48.1%，9月季度46.9%左右，12月季度指引中值45.5%。前瞻里说，12月季度要是还比46.5%低，就是连着第三个季度往下走，指引给出来正是这样。12月季度的指引含不含退款，能找到的报道都没写，含的话剔掉以后还要更低。 营收指引反倒不差。12月季度给的是同比增7%到10%，LSEG汇总的预期是6.1%，服务给的是8%到9%。卖得出去，一块钱里赚到的越来越少，盘后的价格先算的是这一笔。正股收在338.32，美东18点20分左右盘后到328.52，跌了2.9%。$SOL has fallen below $95 again, currently priced at $94.80, dragging $ETH down with it 📉
A signal worth noting: although it broke below $95 again, this time it did not repeat the brutal 8.1% single-day plunge seen on October 30; the decline has clearly slowed down.
This means short-term selling pressure has not accelerated its release yet, and the market looks more like it is repeatedly bottoming after a big drop, with no new wave of panic selling emerging for now.
But don’t mistake this for stabilization! $95 is now a crucial dividing line. The key short-term focus is whether it can climb back above this level; if it fails to recover soon, the weak consolidation will likely continue to drag on. For SOL to truly stabilize, just a slowdown in the decline is far from enough — sustained buying support is necessary to hold the bottom.
#With the US midterm elections approaching, which outcomes are worth watching?
If the Republican Party wins the majority in Congress, expectations for crypto-friendly legislation will rise, likely sparking a wave of positive sentiment; if the Democratic Party controls both chambers, crypto regulation will probably tighten, putting pressure on the entire crypto market. The election results will directly influence the sentiment trajectory of risk assets in the near term, so be patient and wait for the outcome!
⚠️This is only a market review and does not constitute any trading advice
#With the US midterm elections approaching, which outcomes are worth watching? In this round of pullback, institutions may not be the main force dumping the market, but they best reveal the true attitude. Retail investors follow emotions, while institutions have to go through subscription and redemption procedures, slower but closer to the truth of the funds. When looking at ETF flows, don't just focus on direction; the key is to see whether redemptions are for portfolio adjustment, deleveraging, or withdrawal.
$BTC 🪙 On the first full trading day after the event, ETF net outflow was $643 million, the largest single-day outflow since the end of June; IBIT alone saw an outflow of $234 million. But the fundamentals remain: cumulative net inflow of 57.4 billion, net assets of 103.2 billion. It looks more like deleveraging, not liquidation.
$ETH 😮💨 Net outflow for the fifth consecutive day, losing $431 million in a week, with a cumulative outflow of 1.61 billion in October. In comparison, institutions have less patience for ETH.
$SOL 🌱 The ETF size is small, also with five consecutive outflows, only two days of net inflow this month; the cold start of the new product was abruptly interrupted.
The ETF narrative is not over, just the rhythm has been paused by the event. ⏸️ What to watch next is not emotional shouting but whether the nature of redemptions will change from "deleveraging" to "true exit." #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 📊 $BTC current price $77,147, WAIT
Still holding $BTC long positions with an average price of $83,030, no adding to positions.
A) If the rebound to $77,601 fails to hold, then falling below $76,265 after a pullback increases downside risk; holding above $78,000 invalidates this.
B) After a wick sweeps stop losses at $76,265 and then recovers to $76,519, first target $77,601; failure to recover $76,519 invalidates this.
In the past 29.7 hours, long positions liquidated $12.17 million, open interest decreased 0.9% in 24 hours, price down 1.12%, indicating bulls are exiting.
At $76,519, the price has tested support once and held once, never broken.
If it rebounds near $79,742, I will first take half profits on long positions, then watch the market with the rest.
Would you buy the dip here? #OKXTraderVoices $ETH returned to around 2290 in early trading, briefly dipping below 2250 before quickly recovering, with the trend remaining sticky. Although it seems weak, there are buyers at the low levels; although it seems strong, the 2280-2290 range has yet to be broken, with 15-minute intervals swinging back and forth, making chasing orders prone to buying at emotional highs.
Short-term disturbances mainly stem from the Binance security incident. The platform has resumed partial asset withdrawals and stated that about 95% of the stolen assets have been replenished; however, after withdrawal resumed, capital outflows increased, with Reuters reporting a net outflow exceeding $3.5 billion on Sunday at one point. Binance said it is gradually returning to normal. The incident is marginally easing, but confidence restoration still requires time.
The market is thus showing a tug-of-war: panic selling and short-term leverage are being cleared, the absorbing orders have not disappeared, but the willingness to chase prices is insufficient. At this time, it is unwise to treat the rebound as a reversal, nor to treat the spike as a trend. Operationally, reduce position sizes, watch for support near 2250 and the quality of the 2280-2290 breakout, and decide based on whether outflows after withdrawal resumption converge. Waiting for sentiment and capital to align is more stable than hard betting in the middle of the range. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ In last week's hacker incident, the funds of three crypto concept stocks chose to expose their divergence: $CRCL, $MSTR, and $COIN all belong to the crypto equity track, but their risk-hedging attributes are clearly different.
Circle proved to be the most resilient. As the issuer of USDC, it just obtained the OCC national trust bank license, and FSOC has included stablecoin custody as a systemically important activity, with regulatory recognition continuously increasing; during the hacker incident, it cooperated to freeze related funds, further demonstrating its compliance execution to investors. The compliance narrative for stablecoins was thus strengthened, and CRCL gained a trust premium.
MicroStrategy is more like a leveraged vehicle for BTC rather than an ordinary US stock. Its treasury stock attribute means its stock price cannot avoid Bitcoin's influence: fluctuations around 78,000 directly transmit, and if BTC cannot reclaim 80,500, MSTR will struggle to have an independent trend.
Coinbase is the most conflicted. Industry risk events first hit the stock price through beta, with a single-day short-sell plunge of over ten points on the 30th reflecting this; however, traffic spillover and long-term trust migration caused by competitors' incidents may become incremental benefits for COIN. Short-term pressure and long-term gains—this split most tests holding conviction. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 $DOGE $BTC Often, large institutional transfer news carries a "self-fulfilling prophecy": when the group shouts about dumping, BTC often responds with a drop. Like this time when Fidelity transferred out 1,722 BTC (about $132 million) within an hour to multiple new addresses, it looks panic-inducing but is essentially just a cold wallet relocation. The key judgment is simple: transfers into exchanges are potential selling pressure, while transfers to unfamiliar new addresses are mostly asset migrations, not equivalent to selling.
My position remains unchanged for now, with a short-term plan to try shorting, with the following strategy by asset:
BTC: Entry range 77,150–77,600, hard stop loss at 77,980, first target 76,650, second target 76,280; if 1H close holds above 77,700, cancel the order immediately. Support at 76,650/76,280, resistance at 77,700/78,300.
ETH: Entry 2,270–2,305, hard stop loss 2,321, targets 2,240 and 2,206; cancel order if 1H closes above 2,310. Support at 2,237/2,206, resistance at 2,310/2,318.
XAU (currently held): Entry 3,948–3,975, hard stop loss 3,988, targets 3,930 and 3,906; cancel order if 1H closes above 3,972. Support at 3,930/3,906, resistance at 3,975/3,995.
Risk control reminder: BTC and ETH are highly correlated, single trade risk control at 0.5–0.7% each, total not exceeding 1.5%; XAU has weaker correlation, reserved at 1%, total exposure of all positions not exceeding 2.5%. Price is falling, fees are full, is this the bottom or a consolidation?
BTC is now 77,058.
In 24 hours, it dropped from a high of 78,866 to 76,660, down 2.8%.
Yesterday the fee rate once dropped to 0.0086%, I took it as a weak rebound.
Today both settlement periods returned to 0.01%, fully loaded again.
But with fees fully loaded, some see it as a bottom-fishing signal.
The price is clearly falling, yet bulls are still paying full fees. This is unreasonable unless someone is holding on.
Positions haven't decreased. BTC perpetual OI is steady at 340,000 contracts.
This is not a bull liquidation, it's spot selling off.
Perpetuals are still at a discount. BTC premium −0.024%.
ETH −0.030%, SOL −0.032%, all three negative together.
ETH 2,259 down 0.78%, SOL 92.47 down 2.00%.
XPL 0.0668 down 5.63%. All moving down together, no safe-haven coins.
Judgment: If the 1-hour close breaks below 76,600 (today's low), I look toward 75,200.
If it stands back above 78,800 (yesterday's high), this scenario is invalidated. Valid until 16:00 fee settlement today.
Personal review only, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH #BTC跌破77000，空头回补行情是否结束Most people would see this as good news: Liquid officially announced that Bitcoin reserves have been fully restored, and all LBTC now have 1:1 BTC backing.
On the other hand, I think governance reform is more critical than replenishing reserves. First, reserves answer the question "Is there enough money?" but not "Who is responsible?" Second, nodes can verify reserves, but if ordinary users don't know how to use it, supervision still has barriers.
Which is more capable of restoring trust: clarifying responsibility or lowering verification barriers? I choose the former; those who disagree, let's debate.$NEAR
The NEAR governance vote has passed. The maximum annual issuance rate is capped at 1.6%, to be completed over 24 months.
Then the price dropped from 4.27 straight down to 3.886, a 9% decline in one day, just one step away from the daily low of 3.847.
I have always considered NEAR's high inflation a major flaw, thinking this thing couldn't make it big. The flaw fixed itself, and the market gave a slap in return.
The fee rate is still at +0.01%, contract positions are $50 million, not large. Bulls haven't fled, and no one is rushing to take over.
The positive change is to the two-year supply curve, it can't change overnight liquidity. I usually don't act on this kind of news, I'll watch for a month first.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH
In the past 12 hours, 298 million was liquidated across the network, with 271 million on long positions. Ninety percent.
The liquidations are on leverage; those of us holding spot are fine. But when these numbers are spread across the market, ETH only dropped 0.55% in 24 hours, currently priced at 2258, just about twenty off the daily low of 2237. The daily volatility is 3.6%, moving from 2317 down to 2237, then back to the middle.
It's a bit strange. If something serious had happened, it shouldn't be holding like this. The funding rate is still +0.01%, longs are paying, and contract open interest is 1.46 billion, not reduced by a cent.
My interpretation: the liquidations are from altcoins with 20x leverage; no one is really fleeing ETH. Bulls haven't conceded, and bears haven't dared to chase.
What wears people down is never the direction.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？