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Before the election, everyone in the group was waiting for the shoe to drop, saying that once it drops, there should be a rebound.
Now the shoe has dropped, the Democrats took both chambers, BTC first fell 2.8%, breaking 76000. By evening, it climbed back to 77800.
I checked Morgan Stanley's data: since 1982, six months after the midterm elections, the US stock market has averaged a 15% rise.
Whether this time will be the same, I don't know. Anyway, the saying that it will rise once the shoe drops failed this morning first.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Don't take these two tweets from Musk as just jokes.
"Space lasers didn't work" is a rebuttal to a documentary — that film implied he used Starlink to interfere in the election, and he even sent a lawyer's letter at the time. After losing the election, he took the joke himself, turning the accusation into a conspiracy theory with a single quip.
But what he really invested was nearly $500 million.
The second tweet is the key: "Space data centers are very attractive." Behind it are applications for 1 million satellites, the acquisition of xAI, and that trillion-dollar valuation.
The policy benefits have just narrowed, but the story can't stop.
Losing an election can be shrugged off with a joke, but supporting a valuation requires an entire space program.Wow, this situation has me a bit stunned. An address held a long Intel position for 118 days, and this morning it was completely liquidated on-chain, losing about $1.82 million 😂
This wallet was trading US stocks on-chain perpetual contracts, going long Intel around $100 in July, then kept adding as the price dropped, averaging down to $94.28.
Last week Intel gave a very disappointing guidance, and in two trading days the price fell from $92 to around $60. They held about 50,900 shares, with a notional value of roughly $2.98 million. Around 9:30 AM Beijing time today, the price hit $58.44, and the system liquidated everything, resulting in a 38% loss.
What’s even more painful is they also have a Micron long position opened at $927.34, now around $837, with an unrealized loss of about $590,000, and only a bit over 6% away from the liquidation price of $783.87.
They’re not alone; in the past 24 hours, at least 5 accounts’ US stock and commodity contracts were liquidated on-chain, totaling about $7.76 million. On the Nasdaq 100 side, one address was partially liquidated 4 times from yesterday afternoon to today.
Moving US stocks on-chain means you can add leverage even in the middle of the night on weekends, which sounds great, but when stocks crash, it’s no gentler than altcoins. Holding a position for 4 months only to lose it all on one big bearish candle is exhausting just to watch.
For beginners, it’s recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying crypto, only buy $BTC The expectation that the Democratic Party will control Congress has already started to stir global assets $BTC $ETH
The market logic is straightforward: once the Democrats take Congress, political gridlock is likely, government spending will be suppressed, combined with tighter AI regulation dragging down the economy, the Federal Reserve's motivation to continue raising interest rates weakens.
The market has already reacted in advance: US Treasury prices rise, 10-year Treasury yields fall, and the stock market strengthens accordingly.
The crypto space follows the same logic; with cooling rate hike expectations, risk asset sentiment is supported.
But remember, this is all expectation trading. If the final election results differ from current predictions, the gains made so far can quickly be reversed at any time.
It's a game of strategy; don't get carried away chasing highs, manage your risk well.
⚠️This does not constitute investment advice
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？
"$BTC 77K That Spike Awakened My 'ETF Faith'"
At the end of October, I was still leveraging long positions above 85K, the logic was straightforward: continuous net inflows into ETFs, treasury companies kept buying, and expectations for rate hikes cooled down. However, on 10/30, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of 643 million, IBIT withdrew 230 million in a single day; on 11/2, another 399 million was withdrawn, and on 11/3, 116 million flowed out again. Strategies stopped adding positions since Q3, and the main buying engine went cold.
The price ground down from 85K to 77K, and I closed all leveraged positions at the upper shadow of 79.2K. It's not that I am bearish on BTC, but I realized one thing: this rally was driven by "ETF capital flow," and once the flow stopped, the price softened. The 76.5K–77K range is the 200-day moving average plus holder cost zone, the spike didn’t break it; 79K–80K is the overlapping zone of the 20/50-day EMA, every bounce up was hammered back down.
The order book was thin those days, buyers seemed to be hanging around looking for bargains, sellers looked like institutions mechanically redeeming. I didn’t chase shorts or catch falling knives, only tried a small long at 76.8K with a stop loss set below 75.9K. Later it hovered around 77K—not a bottom, but a vacuum zone after institutional retreat How much impact do elections have on Bitcoin? Let me summarize the BTC price increase statistics after several elections. Actually, it's not that scary. In the long term, BTC usually rises one year after elections (about +23% in 2014, about +45% in 2018, about +93% in 2022).
At noon, the 4-hour 12 o'clock bullish candlestick started to resist. Currently, all indicators are normal. I forgot when I placed the small order; it just matched during lunch.Great news, after Trump was swept aside this time, the two parties will check and balance each other, and any bills that do not align with the common interests of both parties will not pass. Trump still holds a veto vote.
So as long as we identify the targets that align with the common interests of both parties, it will work.
Finance is not afraid of ups and downs; fluctuations are a normal cyclical phenomenon. What finance fears most is the uncertainty like Trump’s approach, which everyone has experienced over the past two years.
Here is a summary of sectors where both parties have consensus:
1. National security, mainly the attitude towards China.
2. Semiconductors and AI, similarly, although the Democratic Party also considers domestic public opinion on AI, which conflicts somewhat with Trump’s aggressive strategy, but not significantly. In the long term, it remains a very important card.
3. Mineral resources, especially rare earths, used for defense infrastructure.
4. Nuclear energy, applicable to both technology and defense.
5. Other energy sources, which have become more important under the impact of AI, so sectors related to nuclear power deserve attention.$57.4636, the reference price for this long position on $INTC is precise to four decimal places, but what I care more about is: where is it aiming to profit, and how much loss is it willing to tolerate? In the material, Core Trader 18 used 10x leverage, holding 650 contracts with a nominal value of about $37,400, yet there is no exit plan in sight.
I don't consider the precision of the entry price as a trading advantage. For me, if the expected upside is smaller than the stop-loss distance I'm prepared to bear, even if the direction looks favorable, it's not worth it; only if the potential profit can cover multiple times the risk and the exit conditions can be executed do we have a basis to discuss expected value. These are my screening criteria, not a guess about this wallet's plan.
Leverage amplifies gains and losses but does not magically improve odds. Without take-profit, stop-loss, and margin models, I can't even calculate the loss boundary of this trade, so I'd rather observe first. For this same 10x long position, do you value the win rate of directional judgment more, or the odds of at least 2-to-1 reward-to-risk?$BTC
We nailed the entire dump to 75.8k
Now I am expecting a bearish retest into 78.5-79k to form the lower high and then dump from there
75.8k ✅
78.5-79k⌛
#AMDQ3DataCenterUp97% #AMD data center revenue nearly doubled, both revenue and guidance exceeded expectations $ZEC surged 10% in one day to hit the upper Bollinger Band with RSI at 62, while $BTC at 77818 and $ETH at 2293 are weak in following the rally. I'm the first to sell ZEC.
$ZEC directly jumped 10 points today to stand above the upper Bollinger Band, RSI at 62 hasn't reached the overbought zone yet, but I already sold part at 1252. I'm not bearish, it's just that this coin rose too fast—the upper Bollinger Band near 1250 is the short-term ceiling, MA7 is only 1214, the deviation rate is obviously too large, brothers chasing highs be careful not to get trapped. BTC is lingering around 77800 with RSI only at 51, ETH at 2293 can't even hold above 2300 with RSI at 48, these two leaders have no strength, how far can ZEC jump alone? Funding rate at 0.01% indicates longs are still paying, not a short squeeze, purely driven by sentiment.
I'm now reducing my position to take profits, leaving a base position to see if it can hold above 1250. If it falls back to the 1210-1220 range tomorrow, I'll consider buying back; if it breaks below 1197, this run is over, no point in fighting. BTC is stuck in a narrow range between 77700-78300 with no direction, ETH is even weaker, neither can drive ZEC to continue rising. Whoever is greedy now will get trapped, I'm stepping back first, you do as you please. The crypto market is not trading on charts this week. It is trading on a calendar. The U.S. midterm elections land squarely on top of the fallout from a $6.3 billion Binance hack, and the result is a market that has stopped making decisions. $BTC sits at $77,717, up just 0.17% over 24 hours, a number that looks like calm but reads like paralysis. The tell is in the flows, not the price. Customers pulled a net $4.72 billion from Binance after the breach, and that liquidity drain matters more thanOne person, one account, $163 million in positions, 95% short. This is not a joke; it’s the real ledger currently open on Hyperliquid.
The most eye-catching is a $BTC short position: 1,376.07 contracts, 25x leverage, position value about $104 million, average entry price $79,861, current unrealized profit $4.89 million. The price has already dropped well below the cost line, and this position has earned that much.
Looking closer: he also collected $426,000 in funding fees. Being paid to short means the bulls have been paying to maintain their positions recently, indicating a bullish market sentiment. The shorts not only haven’t been squeezed out but are collecting rent while waiting.
The account structure also tells a story. Total positions about $163 million, $BTC accounts for 63.8%, the rest spread across other assets, but the direction is highly consistent—95% short. This doesn’t look like a hedge; it’s more like a clear bet.
What does 25x leverage mean? If $BTC moves about 4% against him, that $4.89 million unrealized profit can be wiped out or even turn into a loss. Being the most profitable short position on the entire platform relies not only on directional judgment but also on having enough margin to withstand volatility.
One thought worth considering: when one person’s short position becomes the most profitable on the platform, that itself is an emotional indicator. The real bottom usually doesn’t appear when shorts are most comfortable.Conclusion first: $ZEC current price 1251, 24h +10.7%, yesterday's low 1124.61. This surge is not driven by buying pressure, three numbers:
① Up 10.7%, open interest only rose from 150.3 million to 153.7 million (+2.3%) — no added leverage, it's short covering.
② Funding rate has been positive for 8 consecutive periods, with 6 periods stuck at the +0.01%/8h floor price, longs have been paying continuously.
③ Yesterday early morning, a 4H candle traded 456 million, dropping from 1259 to 1125.9 (-10.6%); today this candle traded 279 million pushing back up to 1258.91. 24h perpetual contract volume is 1.85 times the spot volume of 944 million, at 1.75 billion.
News is NU7: Activation tomorrow 11-05 at block 3,543,405, confirmation speed increased 3x, Zebra 7.0.0 patched 7 vulnerabilities last night.
Yesterday's big bearish candle is even more worth noting: with the same upgrade expectation, it dropped 11% early morning due to community funding disputes (some want to cut the $300 million developer fund early); in recent days, there is an $8 million short order above and a $10.8 million buy order below.
The day before the upgrade rose 10% betting on expectation fulfillment, but the expectation was just crushed once. On the actual launch day, do you position or hide? I tend to hide. Can 1250 hold? $ZEC CLANKER's drop from 16.49 is not accidental; the 15-minute MACD histogram has been shrinking continuously, EMA has converged without a second volume surge, and RSI has already pushed into the overbought zone. The current price at 16.22 is still rubbing against a high level, with buying clearly cautious. Unless it firmly breaks above 16.40 again, this rebound is basically a chance for the bulls to escape.
Just placed a meal on the stone pillar at the community entrance, checked the phone screen, and the price is still hovering around 16.20.
On the liquidation chart, a large number of long positions piled up below 15.6 is very dangerous. This level is not support; it’s fuel. If the price pulls back to 16.35–16.45 and stalls, short directly, defend at 16.78, with the first target at the 15.60 liquidation zone, and if broken, look for 15.10.
If it first drops to 15.60 and then the 15-minute candle closes with a long lower shadow, consider going long, stop loss at 15.30, target back to 16.10. Do not add longs in the middle range.
$CLANKER
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期
@OKX星球 Stablecoins shrank by about $5.7 billion in one week, and ETFs withdrew over $1 billion in two days — the "bullets" retail investors can use are decreasing.
News about whales hoarding coins is loud, but on-exchange liquidity is being drained.
Tether CEO says they hold about 150,000 BTC (about 50,000 more than disclosed reserves); other institutions are still adding ETH. It looks like "smart money is accumulating."
But on the other hand: spot BTC ETFs had a net outflow of over $1 billion in two days, ETH ETFs have had consecutive days of redemptions, and total stablecoin supply has dropped to nearly a one-year low.
The two trends are opposite — company balance sheets are increasing positions, while funds/stablecoin channels are reducing positions. Don’t directly translate "a certain party hoarding coins" as "market liquidity has returned."
Three steps before making a move:
1) First, see if total stablecoin supply has stopped falling and started to rise (bullets available on exchanges)
2) Then check if BTC/ETH ETFs have continuous net inflows; don’t be fooled by single-day rebounds
3) Whale hoarding news can be a reference, but not a signal to go all-in
Do you trust whale hoarding more, or do you trust whether there are enough "bullets" on-exchange?
$BTC $USDT #stablecoin Around the U.S. midterm elections, the market may experience another short-term pullback, but this does not mean the market will enter a sustained crash. As election uncertainties gradually fade, investor sentiment is expected to stabilize, and BTC may gradually enter a bottom-building phase. Looking back at the past three Bitcoin cycles, market bottoms all appeared after the U.S. midterm elections: * 2014: The cycle bottom appeared about 71 days after the election ended. * 2018: The bottom was reached about 39 days after the election ended. * 2022: A phase low was formed about 13 days after the election ended. From historical data, the time to bottom seems to be shortening progressively. However, historical patterns do not guarantee future repetition. If this historical rhythm occurs again, the next BTC cycle bottom may fall between late December 2026 and early 2027, which is worth close attention. New market observation: The latest election news on November 4 shows the Democratic Party gained control of the Senate, while the House results remain uncertain. The market worries that changes in congressional power may affect U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory policies, putting short-term pressure on BTC and tech stocks. The crypto industry especially needs to watch the follow-up legislative progress of the CLARITY Act. AP News +2 My view is: The volatility brought by the election may only be a short-term factor affecting the market; what truly determines the BTC bottom remains ETF capital flows, macro liquidity, the U.S. dollar trend, and spot buying. Key points to watch next: * $76,000–$77,000: short Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $ETH is very small. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.06%, with the first-level pair size about $199; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 2%. Small orders can probe, but volume must look at deeper levels.
For $SOL, the first-level negative spread of buy near sell far is deeper than the mark price spread. Near-month annualized +5.29%, far-month annualized +0.61%, the near end is more expensive; mark price near-far spread -0.1%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread -1.35%. First look at the annualized slope, then try to confirm whether it can be traded at the spread.#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Disappointing#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
Circle is releasing its quarterly report tonight, and I bought a small position on Yes.
The betting rules are strict: diluted GAAP earnings per share must be higher than $0.37; exactly 0.37 counts as a loss. Currently, Yes is about 72¢, No is about 31¢, and trading stops around 19:00 Beijing time tonight.
1. The consensus analyst expectation at market open was $0.37, with most external updates around $0.38–$0.40, so the line isn’t tough; beating expectations slightly will win.
2. The stablecoin volume is still growing, and the market is betting it can turn that growth into profit. Yes rising from yesterday to just over 70¢ is not just talk.
3. But my win rate is about 70–80%, the market price is already 72¢, so the profit margin isn’t big. That’s why I only took a small position, not an all-in.
Risks are also clear: GAAP and the adjusted profits people usually look at are different; one-time expenses and stock incentives can push the numbers down; exactly 0.37 means a loss; volatility will be high near the announcement. Control your position size; if you lose, it’s just tuition. $ZEC
The perpetual contract is one dollar cheaper than the spot price, yet the price keeps surging. This detail is more interesting than the candlestick chart.
Current price is 1254, having climbed from 1130 to a high of 1258.91 in 24 hours, up 10.9%. But the perpetual contract quotes 1253.33, spot is 1254.35, showing a discount. The funding rate settles at +0.01%, which is the breakeven line, with no premium at all.
At 13:00, the hourly candle had a trading volume of $141 million, the largest among the last twelve. At the same time, open interest rose from 144 million to 158 million, an increase of 13.7 million. Open interest up, price up, funding rate flat—this money is not leveraged chasing, it's spot buying.
This structure is much cleaner than the 'open interest explosion + funding rate soaring to 0.1'. The downside is here too: without a premium buffer on the perpetual, if spot stops buying, the pullback won't be gentle.
I'm not chasing this leg. I'll wait for a retracement to see if spot continues to buy.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set a rule: if the Ethereum spot ETF experiences continuous net outflows, then raise the observation level for funding pressure, without immediately deducing the price direction. SoSoValue data shows that on November 3rd Eastern Time, the total net outflow was $85,346,200, marking seven consecutive days of net outflows. 🤖
I think this is a bearish signal, but I wouldn’t directly label it as "institutional full retreat." Continuous outflows require more attention than single-day fluctuations; however, on that day, BlackRock's ETHA outflow was $74,438,300, which accounted for the majority, so the total amount cannot be treated as a unanimous action by all parties. Moreover, ETHA’s historical cumulative net inflow still stands at $11.657 billion, so short-term flows and long-term holdings need to be viewed separately.
The advantage of this rule is that it forces me to pay attention to persistence; the drawback is that it only looks at capital inflows and outflows and cannot explain the motives. As a quantitative novice, I will next monitor whether the outflows continue and whether they spread to more products, rather than relying on a single indicator to make a judgment.#SpaceX业绩大增，与特斯拉合并能否推进？
The most striking change in SpaceX's Q3 is not profitability, but a complete flip in revenue structure: AI computing power revenue reached 8.3 billion, surpassing Starlink for the first time, becoming the largest source. A rocket manufacturing company now earns over half its revenue from renting computing power, and the market took several days to digest this.
The cost is also clear. Quarterly capital expenditure was 19.6 billion, higher than the 14.6 billion revenue, and free cash flow remains negative. Starlink's earnings are stable but not enough to fill the AI gap.
What’s more critical is the election. The probability of Democrats retaking Congress is bet at 99%, and SpaceX holds many government contracts, so the stock fell after hours as a sign of caution. No matter how big the story, policy shifts are a real risk.*🔥 Strategy's treasury bill is tangled! Buying coins vs. repurchasing, what exactly is going on?*
Last week's operations:
*Buy:* 811 $BTC, spent 65.5 million dollars, average price 80,846, total holdings 849,327 coins
*Repurchase:* Spent 208.2 million dollars to repurchase STRC preferred shares, more than 3 times the amount spent on buying coins!
Cash dropped directly from 242 million to 132 million
ETF is also weak, net outflow of 27.4 million dollars on November 3rd, withdrawn for 3 consecutive days, but much less than the 398 million on November 2nd, outflow is slowing down
*My view: This week Strategy is repairing liabilities, not fully increasing positions, don't take it as a bullish signal!*
Market $BTC current price about 77,000, Asian early session fell from 78,000
*Short term:*
Support 76,800, reduce positions if broken
Resistance 77,500, hold above to see 78,000
Stop loss below 76,500 #IREN矿企转型AI云服务，GPU交付进展待揭晓 IREN Q1 revenue is highly likely to exceed expectations (consensus 230 million, model estimate 240 million). The core support is the acceptance and delivery of Horizon 1 under the Microsoft contract, with AI cloud ARR doubling within the quarter to 1 billion USD, offsetting the decline in mining revenue.
However, the real critical point in the financial report lies in capital expenditure. The massive annual spending of 25-30 billion currently faces a financing gap of 3-8 billion. The market is extremely wary of the company using the remaining 3.5 billion ATM quota for equity issuance to raise funds. Currently, its short position exceeds 20%, and the stock price has halved 68% from its peak, with capital bracing for the scenario of "good performance but equity issuance crushing the stock."
In short: revenue exceeding expectations is the baseline, but stock price fluctuations depend entirely on the earnings call. As long as management provides a financing path that does not heavily rely on equity issuance, even meeting loss targets is positive; otherwise, good revenue is meaningless. Attention should also be paid to the delivery pace of Horizon 2-4 to confirm next quarter's momentum. $JUP
Jupiter illustrates how important liquidity aggregation and trading infrastructure have become within Solana's ecosystem. Its role extends beyond simply providing another token for market speculation. Trading efficiency, product development, user retention, and competition among decentralized exchanges all influence its position. One important distinction remains: platform activity does not automatically translate into proportional value accrual for the JUP token.The rally looks impressive, but liquidation data suggests a different story.
$BTC saw $33.74M in short liquidations compared to just $6.7M in longs, pointing to a short squeeze rather than strong organic buying pressure.
$ETH followed the same trend, with $34.87M in short positions wiped out. Forced buying fueled the upside, but genuine spot demand is still unconfirmed.
$CORE highlighted how quickly momentum can reverse, with both long and short positions getting liquidated. One address, $101 million, four coins, all long positions. Currently floating a loss of $1.725 million, three positions have only tens of dollars left before liquidation.
Breaking down the numbers. $BTC is a 30x long, floating loss of $709,000, remaining liquidation buffer $398.7. $ETH 15x, floating loss $378,000, remaining $86.14. $HYPE 10x, floating loss $618,000, remaining $6.58. $ZEC 10x, floating loss $205,000, remaining $38.28.
Units are in USD, not percentages. 398.7, 86.14, 6.58 — these numbers don’t indicate a buffer left, but that a small price move will wipe out the position. With a $101 million size, the margin for error is compressed to three digits or even single digits.
The mechanism isn’t complicated. Four assets, same direction, no hedging, leverage from 10x to 30x. It looks diversified normally; but when the overall drawdown happens, correlation rises together, all four positions approach liquidation simultaneously, and there’s no time to reduce exposure.
So this isn’t a directional error. A floating loss of $1.725 million on $101 million means the price just moved against the position for a bit after entry. The fatal factor is time: without even a single normal wick, the position is gone.
Many people treat floating losses as a safety cushion. But floating loss space and liquidation buffer are two different things; the former is an accounting figure, the latter is the ticket to survive until the next candlestick.🔍 Opening a short near $91.15, is it waiting for a sharp drop? I've got my eye on Core Trader 66's $SOL short position: nominal value about $262,600, using 20x leverage.
Don't rush to conclusions. Here's my speculation: he aims to capture a quick profit from the drop rather than slowly waiting for a trend. The reason is that roughly calculated by leverage, a 1% price move against him corresponds to about a 20% margin loss, not including fees.
If the price doesn't move down soon, I'll watch to see if he actively cancels the order and exits.Heat eventually has to cool down. For those holding these meme tokens or planning to buy the dip, here’s a look:
$PEPE After the sell-off triggered by the theft incident next door, a legendary trader bought 45.08 billion tokens, driving the price up, but now that the hype has died down and trading volume can’t keep up, the price can only hover around 0.000005~
$TRUMP Around 1.58, on election voting day, not a single cent of capital flowed into this political concept token. Political tokens are like this: once the event settles, they expire;
$UNI Previously, during the Robinhood chain launch event, everyone bet on a surge in RWA trading volume and fees burning UNI, which directly pushed the token price up. But now the 7u level has been flat for too long, the protocol is clearly making money, but the governance hype is nowhere near enough to support buying pressure. It was expected that the burn event would lift the price a bit, but so far, it looks like just a bottom support logic, not a short-term rally trigger;
PEPE and TRUMP are not suitable to catch at this time. If you want to catch, you need to wait for one of two things: volume expansion or new narrative; without either, don’t act. UNI is unlikely to rise unless the distribution mechanism really changes. # Latest Updates
- AMD revenue hits 13.38 billion, exceeding expectations, data center +97%, EPS 2.09 beats 1.95; Q4 guidance 17 billion +66%, shares up 6% after hours.
- Meta issues 20 billion cross-currency bonds, 15 billion in USD bonds, 10Y spread +1.6pp higher than index 0.91pp, bond market cautiously views AI capital expenditure.
- CME Bitcoin futures turned to a premium of 0.28%, BTC ETF outflow of 399 million, ETH outflow of 140 million; USDC and USDT both marginally contracted.
- US-Iran stalemate, US military strikes Qeshm Island, Brent crude at 104.27; Trump halts 4 billion aid to Israel; JOLTs 7.523 million beats expectations, 10Y at 4.96%.
- Binance reveals $6.3 billion theft case: attackers controlled employee computers via fake interviews and malware, transferring about 233.46 million XRP from five hot wallets within 4 minutes.
# Trading Analysis
- Maintain conclusion: semiconductor rebound is an oversold correction, not a trend reversal.
- JOLTs 7.523 million beats expectations, 10Y rises to 4.96%, 30Y to 5.33%. US-Iran stalemate keeps Brent crude at 104.27, yields are easier to rise than fall, focus on today's ADP (expected 67k) and Friday's nonfarm payrolls.
- AMD data center +97% locked in through H1 2027; Meta's 20 billion bond +1.6pp spread shows bond market cautious on AI spending.#AAOI高速光模块放量，Q3财报能否超预期？ The direction of AAOI's Q3 earnings report "exceeding expectations" is generally positive, but it needs to be analyzed in detail: the probability of revenue exceeding consensus is relatively high (about 70%–75%), while the difficulty of EPS exceeding consensus is greater (about 55%–60%).
Analyst consensus revenue is about $268 million, EPS about $0.14, falling within the company's guidance range of $255 million–$290 million. Q2 revenue already reached $191.9 million, a year-over-year increase of 86%, and the company guides that 800G sales in Q3 will grow nearly 5 times quarter-over-quarter, with 1.6T shipments starting in late Q3, providing solid quarter-over-quarter revenue momentum.
However, the real "exceeding expectations" will not come from 800G — this has been fully priced in. The key variable is whether the shipment pace of 1.6T at the end of Q3 is faster than the conservative wording of "initial shipments," and whether the profit margin contribution from CATV can offset the cost pressure from capacity ramp-up. The downside risk is that the decline in 100G and the capacity constraints of 800G occur simultaneously, pushing revenue to the lower half of the guidance and further compressing profits.
Conclusion: The revenue outlook is positive, but this is not a "blindly exceeding expectations" earnings report. In the past four quarters, AAOI has exceeded expectations three times with an average surprise of 40%, but the stock price halving in one month indicates the market has already priced in very low expectations. The real winning factor is the shipment volume and profit margin of 1.6T, not the volume growth of 800G itself.#Circle's financial report is about to be released, will the growth of stablecoins translate into profits? #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Q3 will not prove that "stablecoin growth can deliver returns," but will once again demonstrate the structural mismatch between Circle's scale growth and profit realization. In other words, this is not a quarter of "growth realization," but a quarter where "growth is diluted by costs and interest rates." $BNB had 6.1 billion withdrawn in 24 hours, and the selling pressure in the hacker's hands keeps pouring out continuously. The daily chart is directly suppressed and falling along the moving averages, and the current price is stubbornly holding around the 700 mark.
The most critical issue is that below 700 is a vacuum zone of chips, with no buying support to catch the fall. Once this level is broken, there won't even be resistance below, and the long positions' stop-loss orders could trigger a stampede, creating a bottomless pit.
#BNB
$BNB
👇$FLUID
DeFi liquidity is only useful when capital can move efficiently between trading and lending markets. FLUID's approach to combining liquidity across different DeFi activities addresses an important problem: fragmented capital. However, technology alone does not guarantee sustainable demand. Long-term progress depends on actual usage, competitive execution, and whether users consistently find better efficiency within its ecosystem.$BTC Market Overview
Wow, I really give up. These past two days I feel like I've been brainwashed, with daily drawdowns of several thousand. I just can't take it anymore, I'm running first and will buy back at a good position later. (By the way, my coin-based position won't move, holding at 4000.)
$BTC dipped intraday to about $76,389, then rebounded along with the Nasdaq and AI sector to retake the $77,500–$78,000 range, even briefly breaking above $78,000. The day started weak but ended strong, overall oscillating within a range while waiting for the election vote count results. The market focus is stuck between $77,000 and $78,000, with neither bulls nor bears daring to make large unilateral bets. Liquidity has contracted ahead of the major outcome.
Technical Analysis
- Resistance and Support
- First resistance: 78,600
- Second resistance: 80,200
- Short-term support: 76,200, strong support at 74,800
Funds & Contracts
Spot ETFs continue to see capital outflows, institutional buying is temporarily absent, capping the rebound; on the contract side, bulls and bears are fiercely contesting. During the sharp drop, some longs stopped out, and after the rebound, shorts increased positions to defend key resistance levels; funding rates show no clear one-sided bias, market sentiment is cautiously watchful, with no extreme greed or panic.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Short positions account for 100%. This ratio looks very exciting, but my first reaction is: chasing volatility at this time, is the odds still favorable? The material refers to the public forced liquidation records of OKEx ETH USDT perpetual contracts in the past hour. I prefer to see it as a risk warning for counter-trend leverage rather than proof that the price rise is already stable.
I would assign a higher weight to scenarios where short-term shorts are easily hurt, but I would not simultaneously increase the probability of a continuous rise. The reason is simple: forced liquidation records only tell me who has been forced out, not how much buying interest remains behind. Treating the already occurred squeeze as repeatable realized gains, I think, is double counting.
In my speculation, if the price can hold after the squeeze and the pullback does not quickly erase the gains, then continuing to observe the upward logic is more worthwhile; if it quickly falls back after the surge, then chasing this news has a poor risk-reward structure. The former at least provides a position where the judgment fails, while the latter may only leave emotions, making win rate and odds hard to evaluate.
I'm a bit of a killjoy; the more orderly the one-sided liquidation data, the more I want to first look for counter-evidence. This information raises my alertness to leverage risk but does not stamp the directional judgment. Facing such concentrated short position liquidations, do you value the win rate after the price stabilizes more, or do you prefer to participate earlier with harder-to-judge odds? #AMD data center revenue nearly doubled, both revenue and guidance exceeded expectations
Do you think AMD really has the trump card to challenge NVIDIA in the AI hardware game? $AMD $NVDA
The just-released Q3 2026 earnings report is indeed impressive, with quarterly revenue of $13.38 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.09, both surpassing market expectations
Data center business surged 97% quarter-over-quarter to $8.5 billion, with revenue share jumping to 64% in one go. Lisa Su also set next quarter's guidance near $17 billion and boldly claimed that 2027 revenue will increase by more than 80%
The soaring data center share means AMD has completely transformed from a PC processor company into an AI computing infrastructure giant. As the MI450 series and Helios architecture systems roll out across major companies, cloud providers are aggressively pouring orders into AMD to prevent NVIDIA from dominating alone
Although the traditional gaming business declined 40% due to the semi-custom chip cycle, the data center's high 34% operating margin directly compensates for the shortfall. Capacity constraints and rapidly increasing supply chain inventory are current risks that need to be managed
AI GPU revenue in the computing segment will most likely surpass traditional server CPU revenue for the first time in Q4. In the short term, the chip segment is likely to see a valuation recovery, but the real long-term game-changer lies in ecosystem development. Whether AMD's ROCm system can truly help customers lower migration barriers will determine how much market share it can carve out from NVIDIA#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Circle is about to release its Q3 2026 financial report, with the market's core focus on whether the continuous expansion of the USDC ecosystem can truly translate into profits, which is the key to validating the current valuation.
Circle's core profit model relies on the scale of USDC circulation combined with interest from U.S. Treasury reserves. The current industry characteristics are clear: on-chain transaction volume, CCTP cross-chain scenarios, B2B payments, and AI settlement demands are continuously booming; USDC's compliance advantages remain solid, and institutional capital recognition is high. However, growth has begun to diverge, with Q2 USDC circulation growth slowing significantly year-over-year, coupled with the ongoing decline in U.S. Treasury yields, putting pressure on reserve asset returns and directly suppressing core interest income.
A bigger profit pain point comes from fixed costs. Nearly 60% of Circle's revenue is used for distribution commissions to exchanges, wallets, and other channels. High profit sharing continues to erode gross margin, creating an industry dilemma where revenue growth does not easily translate into profit growth. Relying solely on scale expansion can no longer steadily increase profits.
The core highlight of this financial report is the realization of the second growth curve. The retained USDC within the platform continues to double, and non-interest value-added businesses such as payments and subscriptions are key to breaking free from sole dependence on U.S. Treasury yields. If Q3 sees acceleration in non-reserve income, controllable channel costs, and improved retention rates of existing funds, scale growth can effectively convert into profitability.
Conversely, if circulation growth remains weak, yields continue to decline, and new business implementation falls short of expectations, the market's earlier pricing logic for stablecoin growth will face a correction.The U.S. midterm elections have concluded!
Latest landscape + sector impact analysis
The results of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections are basically settled, with the Democratic Party successfully gaining full control of both the House and Senate, completely overturning the previous narrow Republican control.
The market officially enters a "Trump White House + Democratic Congress" balance of power governance cycle. Over the next two years, U.S. fiscal, regulatory, and industry policies will see significant shifts, directly affecting global asset trends.
The overall governance logic has completely changed. Trump's policies of tax cuts, defense expansion, and relaxed industry regulation are likely to face obstacles. Expectations for fiscal expansion are cooling, while congressional oversight has greatly increased, with intensified compliance reviews across various industries.
✅ From a market opportunity perspective, new energy, photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and healthcare are the core beneficiary sectors.
✅ The Democratic Party will continue to stabilize green energy subsidy policies, maximizing certainty in the industry chain policies;
✅ At the same time, healthcare-related policies remain stable, with negative impacts on pharmaceutical companies and healthcare sectors fully priced in, leaving ample room for valuation recovery.
✅ Additionally, expectations of fiscal tightening favor safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasury bonds.
❌ The pressured sectors are also clear: cryptocurrencies, AI technology, semiconductors, and defense industries face short-term pressure.
❌ Subsequent industry antitrust, compliance regulation, and special investigations will continue to be implemented. Coupled with limited defense budget expansion, sector sentiment and performance are unlikely to see strong momentum in the short term.
This election reshapes U.S. stock market policy expectations, and sector divergence trends are likely to continue.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ The House of Representatives has already determined 252 seats. What I'm focusing on are the words "determined seats," not rushing to guess the market direction. I don't play with high leverage, and this kind of news won't change that habit. In the material, Trump calls on voters to "pretend I'm on the ballot," while the seat determinations for both chambers are still ongoing.
My own judgment is: for long-term holding, this news is still just noise for now; for those eager to bet, the impact is probably greater than on the long-term value of assets. The phased seat data can tell me where the election stands, but it can't answer whether there is real demand on-chain or if ordinary people find using crypto assets more convenient.
Here's a point that's easy to confuse: news is important, but that doesn't mean it immediately changes the reasons for holding. According to my speculation, if subsequent seat changes affect the stability of regulatory rules and enforcement, then it might change the long-term operating costs of the industry. At present, this information hasn't provided that level of evidence, and I don't want to speculate further.
Anyway, I'm holding without moving, but I'm not covering my ears either. I will watch to see if there are any substantial changes in the operating environment. The most troublesome thing about leverage is that before you get to verify your judgment, your position might already be unable to hold; I give myself some time and don't rush answers with forced liquidation thresholds.Brothers, holding CORE for so long, I didn't expect to have more and more worries now.
Before, when I checked the market, I only cared about how many points it dropped today and when it would rebound.
Now it's different.
Seeing Bithumb terminate CORE trading support, my first reaction wasn't how much more the price could fall, but what to do with the coins in hand if trading channels continue to decrease in the future?
At least with price drops, you can wait for the market to recover, but if liquidity gets worse and worse, it might not be so easy to buy or sell when you want.
This is what makes me a bit uneasy.
I don't want to cause panic, nor do I think OKEx will necessarily delist CORE.
But after going through this incident, we really should reconsider our positions and risks.
Holding for a long time doesn't mean all risks can be ignored. $CORE Today's close, the biggest feeling is not the lack of opportunity, but that risks keep coming one after another.
BTC +1.4% today, at 77,742. ETH +2.0%, rebounding but volume is questionable.
Strong $ZEC +10.1%, weak $SOL +1.1%, severe divergence, don't chase the highs.
The real suppression is macro: high interest rates, sticky inflation, and repeated expectations of rate cuts. Price volatility is superficial; confidence and liquidity are hit even harder.
Keep an eye on next:
· Nonfarm payroll data (first Friday of each month)
· CPI inflation data (mid-month)
· Federal Reserve meeting minutes (three weeks after meeting)
· PCE price index (end of each month)
· ETF fund flows (every evening)
My advice: deleverage, diversify positions, don't put your chips all in one direction. Let's chat in the comments about which event you are most focused on next week #CryptoCommunity $1INCH
Liquidity fragmentation is one of DeFi's persistent problems. 1inch addresses this challenge by helping users find competitive swap routes across decentralized liquidity sources. Its long-term opportunity depends on execution quality, routing efficiency, and user demand. Competition is intense, so maintaining a meaningful advantage is essential.$EGLD
MultiversX has an ambitious vision for scalable blockchain infrastructure. Yet technology alone does not guarantee ecosystem success. Developer activity, useful applications, and consistent user participation are essential ingredients. EGLD's long-term position will depend on whether the network can turn its technical capabilities into measurable economic activity.Anonymous trader VBVIT currently holds a 25x leveraged short position of 1,376.07 BTC, with a position value of approximately $104 million, an average entry price of $79,860.8, a current unrealized profit of about $4.89 million, and additional funding income of around $426,000. The total position value of this account is about $163 million, with 95% in short positions and BTC holdings accounting for 63.8%. According to monitoring data, this position currently has the highest unrealized profit on a BTC short on Hyperliquid. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC In Binance's preliminary investigation, one detail is more unsettling than the amount of funds involved: the attacker contacted engineers through a legitimate job platform, impersonated the project leader, arranged interviews, and then requested downloading assignments containing malicious code.
The platform was genuine, and the communication process appeared like a normal recruitment, but the problem was hidden in the subsequent execution requirements.
This indicates that the security defense now faces a whole process of patiently building trust. The attacker can study the target's professional background and job role, then wait for the right opportunity to proceed to the next step.
I don't quite agree with simplifying such incidents as "an employee's carelessness" in the end. Individual actions need review, and companies also need to explain why, after the office equipment was compromised, permissions and system isolation failed to timely limit the impact.
The preliminary report still requires follow-up independent audits; specific responsibilities and the complete attack chain should await further confirmation. But this is already enough to remind the industry that recruitment, development tools, and daily collaboration are all part of asset security.
Industry collaboration can also move forward: sharing attack methods and malicious project characteristics to help other teams identify the same patterns earlier.
Chasing funds together after the fact is important, but investing in enabling the next engineer to recognize this fake interview beforehand is equally worthwhile. Users' asset security may depend on these usually overlooked operational details.
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 #Скоро отчет Circle, сможет ли рост стейблкоинов принести доход? A 378 percentage point revenue growth slammed onto the chessboard, resulting in a 13.47-point bearish candlestick — this has nothing to do with all the good news being exhausted; it's that the opponent had already planted a sacrificed piece in the grid you thought was foolproof ♟️👑
I've sat in the grandmaster position for so many years, and what I fear most is not the opponent making strange moves, but the structural loosening of the entire pawn chain. The scorecard at the start of this game looked very good: Q1 revenue grew more than threefold year-over-year, Q2 guidance exceeded expectations, and on November 20th, there will be an 8-for-1 stock split. But the market doesn't recognize the scorecard. Nearly a fourfold increase within the year is equivalent to a pawn having advanced from its original square all the way to the opponent's baseline, ready to promote, visible to everyone at the table; at this point, the stock split essentially converts one heavy piece into a row of light pieces, the total value of pieces remains unchanged, the board still has 64 squares, but suddenly the battlefield has many more scattered pawns, liquidity rises, and floating chips increase. True masters never cheer for a pawn that has already promoted; they only care about how many supporting skeletons remain in their pawn structure after the exchange.
What makes me frown even more is not the piece itself, but that Micron and Western Digital are being suppressed along with it. A single pawn being captured is not scary; what's scary is the entire pawn chain being pried apart. The memory chip sector over the past year has been a sharp, forward-pressing pawn structure, but now signs of stacked pawns and isolated pawns are emerging: the growth story has been fully priced in, and every upcoming earnings report must prove it deserves this valuation. Any slight loosening is a pure endgame test after a piece exchange, a contest of whose technique is more solid and who panics first over time.
Now look at the second chessboard beyond the board. The tokenized asset $xPLTR stretches the US stock market's move time into 24 hours; the traditional market close never means the opponent stops moving; when you sleep, they can still push pawns in the dark squares. Under this linkage, one bearish candlestick can be amplified overnight into a two-square time disadvantage, which is the truly valuable initiative.
The opening shows imagination, the middle game shows calculation depth, the endgame shows who still has breath left. Right now, this game has just passed the peak of piece exchanges in the middle game: the bulls hold the trump card of performance but have lost the initiative; the bears have gained substance but haven't cornered the king. The turnover after the stock split is the real checkmate move.
When everyone at the board can calculate the outcome of this game, the result is no longer in the calculation but in who is willing to endure three more rounds in the endgame. #sandiskearningsselloff