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$ETH
62.97 million USD, five hours, 27,553 ETH. The most eye-catching on-chain transaction today is this one.
My first reaction was that someone was snatching up coins. Looking at the market calmed me down: ETH is now 2292, up only 0.9% in 24 hours, peaked at 2318 then dropped, with a daily range of 2247 to 2318.
No follow-up on perpetuals. The fee rate is 0.0023%, close to zero, and total open interest of 1.51 billion USD shows no obvious increase. If it were a real consensus grab, the fee rate wouldn't be this quiet.
OKX spot 24-hour volume is just over 200 million, and this single buy accounted for nearly one-third of the daily volume. Such a large volume only lifted the price by less than one point.
My interpretation is cautious. This scale is mostly institutions building positions, ETF subscriptions/redemptions, or OTC hedging seeking liquidity on the market, not short-term money buying aggressively expecting immediate results.
So I’m not following. I’ll take a serious look when 2318 is taken back; for now—just watching.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ The second USDC reserve income from Hyperliquid is about to arrive! $15 million ready to enter, is there a new move for HYPE buyback? 🔥
Hyperliquid is about to "refuel" its ecosystem again this time.
On-chain data shows that a 2.52 USDC AQAv2 test transfer arrived at the Hyperliquid Assistance Fund (AF) at 00:00 UTC on November 2. This small move seems inconspicuous but is very similar to the process before the official payment last month, so the market is starting to pay attention: the second month's USDC reserve income may be arriving soon.
What really deserves attention is the money that follows.
According to the currently disclosed information, Hyperliquid expects to receive over $15 million in USDC reserve income in November. This can be understood as: the platform has a USDC reserve that generates income, and this income will flow into the Assistance Fund.
Based on the current HYPE price estimate, this fund is expected to buy back about 180,000 HYPE.
Simply put, the AF will use USDC to buy HYPE on the market, which is equivalent to adding a potential buying force to the token. If sell orders in the market are continuously absorbed, the short-term supply and demand relationship may naturally be affected.During last week's hack time, the market's capital attitude towards three crypto concept stocks showed even greater contrast than the crypto circle: $CRCL, $MSTR, and $COIN are all crypto equity plays, but it's clear at a glance which one is treated as a safe haven.
Circle, as the issuer of USDC, is actually the most stable in this wave. It just obtained the OCC national trust bank license, and today FSOC listed stablecoin custody as a systemically important activity, delivering real regulatory benefits.
During the hack incident, Circle also cooperated to freeze related funds, thus gaining the capital trust dividend and embracing the compliance narrative of stablecoins.
MicroStrategy is a BTC treasury stock, purely BTC beta, and can no longer be viewed as a US stock but rather as a leveraged BTC play. It wobbles around the 78,000 level; without BTC returning to 80,500, it’s hard for it to have an independent rally.
COIN is Coinbase, which is the most contradictory this time. The troubled industry next door drags it down (on the 30th, the short sellers hammered it down by more than ten points in one day), but the overflow traffic and long-term trust transfer from the adjacent sector are incremental gains for Coinbase in the long run. COIN is dragged down by the industry in the short term but benefits from competitor spillover in the long term. This split is the biggest test of whether investors can hold on.17.85%, this is the ratio I care about most when looking at this message. Within the framework of macro liquidity and large capital portfolio adjustments, I am more concerned whether this portion of chips will turn into sell orders, rather than the unstaking action itself. The material also mentioned that Paradigm previously had operations of unstaking followed by consolidation and restaking, but the specific arrangement this time has not yet been confirmed.
My judgment is: this seems more like a potential supply change that needs to be tracked, not enough to directly classify as bearish. Unstaking makes the chips more flexible in their destination, but it does not mean the funds have already withdrawn. Seeing institutional wallets move and imagining a dump, I think it is easy to misread a risk warning as a definite conclusion.
My own inference is that if macro liquidity tightens, market willingness to absorb weakens, and this batch of chips enters a sellable state and is actually sold, then the pressure on HYPE will be more direct; if it is just consolidated and restaked, then concerns about selling pressure may be overestimated. The key is whether the subsequent destination matches the market's absorption capacity; we cannot just focus on half of the on-chain actions.
Therefore, I tend to treat it as an observation item first, not rushing to label it as institutional withdrawal. When judging the impact of this batch of chips now, which macro factor do you care about most: interest rate expectations, the strength of the US dollar, or the overall capital inflow into the crypto market? $ZEC 📅 November 2 · Bears have stopped on BTC, bulls are bleeding on altcoins
🚨 $44.91 million liquidated across the entire network in the past 24 hours. The total number doesn't seem scary, but breaking it down is quite interesting.
BTC liquidations at $16.33 million, with shorts at $9.86 million — bears actively closed positions near 77,000 to take profits and secure gains. Ethereum is milder, with longs and shorts roughly balanced.
But looking down at altcoins, the picture changes drastically. SOL liquidations at $4.13 million, bulls account for 92%; ZEC liquidations at $3.25 million, bulls account for 90%; DOGE bulls account for 94%. When prices fall, altcoin bulls don’t even get a chance to escape.
BTC bears already feel the drop is enough, while altcoin bulls are still being pressed and bleeding. The same market, two completely different positions telling two different stories.
Is your position the type where bears have already stopped, or the type where bulls are still bleeding? 🐷🐷🐷
@dylanyu88#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 Not necessarily The crypto world spent $100 million, yet still couldn't stop one person? 😂
This person is Sherrod Brown, former chairman of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee and a well-known tough opponent in the crypto space.
In 2024, the crypto industry spent about $40 million through political action committees to successfully defeat him. Unexpectedly, two years later, he's running again for Ohio senator!
This time, the crypto world is spending even more! Fairshake invested about $56 million, and other crypto political funds have also joined in. Over two years, they've spent more than $100 million just to prevent Brown from returning to the Senate.
And the result? Pre-election polls show him slightly ahead, with Kalshi even giving him a 68% chance of winning.
Why is the crypto world so afraid of him?
Because if Brown is elected, he could enter important Senate committees and continue to influence crypto regulatory legislation. If the Democrats also take the Senate, Warren might regain control of the Banking Committee.
I think this election is quite interesting. The crypto world has learned to use money to influence politics over the past two years, but voters may not necessarily buy it.
The person they spent $100 million trying to get rid of might end up with an even more powerful seat. 😂 $ENS
Blockchain naming systems can make decentralized applications easier to access by replacing complicated wallet addresses with readable names. Ethereum Name Service benefits from this usability proposition, but the challenge is building recurring utility beyond speculative domain registrations. Integration quality, renewal behavior, wallet compatibility, and everyday use across applications offer a more meaningful picture of adoption.#闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13%
This is indeed a rather interesting anomaly.
Many people dove headfirst into the earnings report, only to get stuck at a high price. In fact, the capital market is often counterintuitive, and the logic behind this is worth careful consideration:
First is the classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact." Institutions had already anticipated its strong performance and pushed the price up months in advance. Now that the earnings report has actually landed and the good news is realized, if there is no more unexpectedly positive future story, large funds will naturally choose to take profits. What retail investors see as good news often becomes a cover for major players to sell off.
Second, a stock split itself is not a booster. The essence of a stock split is just exchanging one 100-yuan bill for two 50-yuan bills; the company's fundamentals and intrinsic value have not changed. Although it lowers the single-share threshold and increases liquidity, sometimes when executives announce a stock split, subconsciously they feel the current stock price is already high. In the capital market, this can easily be interpreted as a short-term peak signal.
Finally, there is concern about the industry cycle. SanDisk benefited greatly from the price increase of storage chips, but the market now worries that as future capacity gradually releases, the profit peak of this storage cycle may have already passed.
In the face of such a crash caused by expectation gaps, the worst thing is to blindly catch a falling knife. When good news fails to spark any reaction and instead a large bearish candlestick breaks support, it indicates that the bears have taken absolute control. At this time, it is better to observe more, not be swayed by superficial news headlines, and following the true market trend is the safest strategy.Huang Licheng adjusted his positions, but this was not an ordinary reshuffle.
First, look at the moves: He closed a 10x leveraged long position of 11,000 HYPE, taking a loss of $31,600; immediately after, he increased his $ETH long position to 5,200 tokens, raising leverage from 10x to 25x. He cut losses on one side while doubling down on the other, with a very clear direction.
Next, look at the results: After the adjustment, the overall position shows an unrealized profit of $158,000, with a return on investment of 32.56%. This figure is the key—he proactively switched structure while in profit, not forced to cut losses by the market. The $31,600 loss was a cost taken from profits, not a principal bleed.
Mechanically, this is a typical move to cut the lagging asset and concentrate leverage on the main position. HYPE with 10x leverage didn’t perform as expected; holding it would only occupy margin and drag down overall returns. $ETH is the direction he has more confidence in, so instead of lowering leverage, he increased it from 10x to 25x. Leverage itself doesn’t represent risk level; it depends on where it’s applied.
The risk to watch here is that 25x leverage means a roughly 4% adverse move in $ETH would wipe out the unrealized gains on those 5,200 tokens. The 32.56% return is supported by high leverage; if the direction is wrong even once, the drawdown will be much faster than the accumulation.
His position size can withstand such volatility; ordinary accounts may not. The real lesson isn’t the 25x leverage, but the courage to decisively cut the worst position while still making money. $RUNE is currently at 0.504 USDT, down 20.22% in 24 hours, with a low of 0.497 USDT. I think this message is suitable to explain the "arithmetic of breaking even" to newcomers.
📌 Based on this drop, after falling 20.22%, it needs to rise about 25.34% to return to the original position, because the principal base has already shrunk during the decline.
Newcomers often mistakenly think that falling by a certain percentage and then rising by the same percentage will break even; leveraging further makes it easier to underestimate the risk. I first calculate my tolerance and do not base trades on the desire to break even.My first reaction was to bookmark this address to see if there would be any verification or judgment later. But after thinking a bit more, I felt that in my one year in the circle, the easiest mistake is to misread "someone placing a bet" as "someone knowing the answer" 🤔
This time, Core Trader 86 (0x536496…86026) opened a short position on $SOL with 10x leverage, holding 603.93 tokens, with a notional value of about $57,700, reference price $95.5. Seeing this, I want to clarify: is this a standalone bearish bet, or a hedge for another position?
My judgment is that this record can indicate his trading direction but is insufficient to reveal his overall stance. If the wallet also holds spot assets, this short might be a hedge; if not, the directional risk he bears is different. This is just my speculation, as the data does not provide other holdings.
The risk can be calculated more concretely: assuming position size remains unchanged and ignoring fees, for every $1 increase in price, the unrealized loss on the short increases by about $604. The 10x leverage amplifies margin profit and loss fluctuations, so my understanding is that before looking at the notional amount, one should first ask how much adverse price movement he is prepared to endure, not sure if that’s correct.
I haven’t figured out how to identify hedging solely based on on-chain records. I’d like to ask experienced seniors: when encountering such a short position, would you first check the spot balance of the same wallet, or other contract positions? Which one better helps in making a judgment?🔷 CryptoX-ray #25: $G - a token with two price tags
Market cap $29 or $44 million: it all depends on who counts the turnover (7.23 vs 11.2 billion G). Alpha closed on November 1. 12,000 TPS - project’s claim. $73 million volume on aggregators - not market depth.
Red flag: demand for G is not proven by numbers. “Burned 7 million” - unconfirmed, bridge lock ≠ burn.
Verdict: high risk, watch, don’t chase.
Do you believe in L1 Galxe or not? 👇$PONS $PONS has fallen for two consecutive days, with trading volume hitting a new low again.
On October 31, daily trading volume was $17.97M, down 33.9% from the previous period. Starting from the $51.7M peak reached after Wallet launch, two days have wiped out two-thirds, even lower than the $24M before the rebound.
Not only PONS, Robinhood's 24-hour trading volume has dropped to $366M, also halved. Can Robinhood recover?
📊 October 30 → 31
• Trading volume: $27M → $18M (-33.9%)
• Platform fees: $222K → $154K (-30.8%)
• Protocol revenue: $37K → $27K (-26.3%)
• Newly launched tokens: 1,112 → 894 (-19.6%)
• Number of transactions: 245K → 185K (-24.4%)
The previously set goal of "staying above $40M for three consecutive days" failed on the second day, and now it hasn't even held $20M.
🔥 Burn data
Yesterday, 157,000 PONS were burned, rising for the third consecutive day, with the cumulative burn ratio increasing to 32.86%.
The buyback channel balance remains about $255K (splitter $199K + escrow $56K). $HYPE $BTC $BTC $SNDK $SKHYNIX
Today, South Korea's KOSPI experienced a sharp reversal: it opened down nearly 2%, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix pre-market declines exceeding 4%. However, supported by institutional net purchases of about 1.16 trillion KRW and SK Hynix's buybacks during the session, KOSPI surged over 3% at one point. SK Hynix reversed from deep losses to rise more than 5%, and Samsung Electronics narrowed its losses to a gain of over 2%. This is not a simple oversold rebound but a concentrated emotional recovery in the Asian semiconductor supply chain after extremely pessimistic pricing.
Looking ahead to tonight's US stock market, there are several key points to watch:
First, whether semiconductors can stop falling is critical. Last Friday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 7.2%, and Intel dropped nearly 29% in a single day, as doubts about AI investment returns are brewing. Today's reversal in Korean stocks indicates Asian capital is beginning to try "catching the falling knife" in semiconductors, but this is only an early emotional signal. The real determinant of the US stock market direction remains the strength of domestic semiconductor stocks' support after the opening.
Second, pre-market futures have given a somewhat bullish signal. Nasdaq 100 futures in the Asian session rose over 1% at one point, and S&P 500 futures increased about 0.5%. However, last Friday the Nasdaq just fell 2.86%, with a cumulative 5.3% drop in October, so the sustainability of this emotional recovery is questionable.
Third, tonight features Apple's earnings report (after market close) and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Apple is the key finale of this tech earnings season; if it provides positive guidance, it may continue the rebound sentiment from Korean stocks. If it falls short of expectations, the pre-market futures gains will quickly be given back. When playing meme coins, even hearing "the dealer is still in" doesn't reassure me much. Retail investors may not be clear about the dealer's cost or how many chips they have left, but they are quick to calculate the dealer's pump plan. What I really want to figure out is how much capital in the pool can actually absorb the sell orders, and whether the profits on paper are truly realizable. But every time this comes up, someone says the dealer has to make money too. Well, if he has to make money, why is it assumed that I'll be included?$TRUMP Negative news: It rose 4%, but there are still 900,000 tokens unlocking daily waiting to be sold
TRUMP is now at 1.667, up 4.32% in 24 hours, reaching a high of 1.779, with a trading volume of 26 million U, ranking first in today's gainers
Breaking down some numbers, about 904,000 tokens unlock daily, roughly 1.5 million U at the current price, all belonging to creators and CIC Digital
754 million tokens have already been released, accounting for 75.4% of the total supply, and on December 1st there will be another batch of 28 million tokens, about 47 million U
This rise has no news from TRUMP itself, basically following the overall recovery after Binance resumed withdrawals
On November 22nd, the Washington dinner ranked the top 185 holders based on the snapshot from November 12th; the previous two such events saw volume spikes followed by dumps
Tomorrow is the US midterm election, this coin is most sensitive to the results, don't expect it to stay quiet during the vote counting hours.$NEAR NEAR has really gone a bit too far this time.
They issued 13 million dollars worth of tokens in a month, but only bought back 1.9 million. The funniest part is that the tokens bought back are not burned but all stored in the treasury.
This is not deflation; it's just like scooping water with a leaking ladle.
Liquidity on the market is already tight, and a large amount of new tokens off-market are waiting to be dumped into the market every day.
Without a substantial burn mechanism, no matter how strong the buying pressure is, it's just the project team taking the bag. How can the price recover?
#NEAR
$NEAR
👇Nearly $650 million withdrawn in one day, institutions fleeing faster than hackers.
The US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $643 million last Friday, the largest single-day outflow since June 25, triggered by Binance's largest-ever hack incident. ETFs are the main channel for incremental buying in this cycle; withdrawing this amount in one day indicates institutions chose to reduce risk exposure after the hack rather than buying the dip.
This suggests a short-term bearish bias for BTC, driven by event-based risk aversion rather than a fundamental shift in Bitcoin's outlook. Traders are focusing on three key issues: whether ETFs can return to net inflows this week, whether Binance's withdrawals and reserve proofs can stabilize trust, and whether the stolen funds show any on-chain movement.
If outflows continue combined with slow trust recovery, any rebound is more likely to be seen as a window to reduce positions; if replenished within a few days, it would represent a position rebalancing after an emotional shock.
Source: The Block
Are you more concerned about ETF fund inflows or Binance's reserve proofs? This time, looking at Palantir's earnings report, the biggest risk is not poor performance, but rather "not exceeding expectations enough." Currently, with a market value of about $442.4 billion, it corresponds to approximately 77 times the trailing sales ratio and 157 times the trailing P/E ratio. The high growth for the next few years has already been priced in. The apparent expectations are revenue of $2.18 billion and EPS of $0.41, but the real threshold might be closer to $2.28 billion and $0.44. Even if both beat, as long as growth slows or Q4 guidance is weak, the stock price could still fall.
#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 I see very few people talking about the midterm elections, so I'll update you on the current situation of the midterms.
Tomorrow at 7 PM, the midterm election polling stations will start closing and counting votes, and by early morning the day after tomorrow, the counting will finish to determine control of both chambers.
Currently, market expectations are:
The House of Representatives is basically expected to be taken back by the Democrats, with a 92% probability, almost certain.
The Senate is more tense. The Republicans currently hold 53 seats, and the Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to flip control. The remaining 7 swing state seats are evenly matched. Republicans are essentially giving up the House to fully focus on holding the Senate.
The House controls the purse strings and represents public opinion.
It manages finances,
initiates impeachment,
oversees supervision,
and handles people's livelihood.
It's similar to ancient censors, inspectors, and local gentry.
The Senate represents state rights and acts as gatekeepers for personnel and foreign affairs.
It manages appointments,
foreign affairs,
and final legislative review.
It's akin to the ancient cabinet headquarters or prime ministers.
If the Republicans win everything, Trump's crypto-friendly regulatory policies will likely advance, and Bitcoin could rise to 83,000-85,000. Oil supply might also cool down, though this is unlikely.
If the Democrats only take the House, they might impeach Trump and tightly block financial matters, which could be somewhat bearish. This is the most probable scenario. $DOOD DOOD co-founder directly scolds retail investors with "floor it and gtfo," then the treasury moves 690 million tokens to the exchange.
With such a massive amount of chips hanging overhead, the support below is like a joke, the buy orders are as shallow as a sheet of paper.
Calculating the time, another wave of team unlocks is about to be released. The current rebound on the market can't even reach the previous high, it's completely relying on no one dumping to hold on.
Once those tokens in the exchange start to be sold off, this pitiful liquidity will be drained instantly.
#DOOD
$DOOD
👇$DOOD In the past 30 days, the net spot inflow has smashed 64% of the total market cap, and the on-exchange chips are almost completely eaten up.
The main force openly drained the circulating supply. Going head-to-head with such a level of buying pressure to stubbornly short is purely fueling the main force's short squeeze drama. I really don't understand where so much stubbornness comes from.
#DOOD
$DOOD
👇$DOGE From the contract position data, the 4-hour level long-short ratio of DOGE has reached 4.9, with the bulls holding an absolute numerical advantage, and a large number of traders in the market choosing to go long.
Interestingly, the extremely high long positions have not driven the price into a strong upward trend; the overall market trend remains weak, forming a very obvious divergence. Many bulls are crowded together, with many holding on with hope, stubbornly maintaining their positions, hoping the market will suddenly produce a big bullish candle to break even and profit.
This extremely one-sided position structure itself harbors considerable hidden risks. When the bulls are highly crowded, the market faces the problem of lacking incremental counterparties to continue pushing upward. The bears do not even need to actively dump large amounts; as long as the price dips slightly, it will continuously trigger stop-loss orders set by the bulls. After a large number of stop-loss orders are consecutively triggered, it is easy to form a stampede among the bulls, quickly breaking key support levels and triggering a chain liquidation event.
For contract products, extreme long-short sentiment often signals a market turning point. When everyone unanimously goes long, the resistance to further pushing the market up increases, making it easier to trigger a shakeout to digest this clustered long position capital. Traders need to be cautious of this liquidity risk, avoid blindly following the crowd to go long, implement proper risk control, and set reasonable stop-loss orders to avoid suffering large losses in concentrated liquidation events.Tonight's judgment is confirmed again: $BTC short positions are set above 78000, as expected.
The core trend this week is downward, so my approach has always been that any rebound is a shorting opportunity.
This strategy does not aim to capture every big profit segment but focuses on avoiding heavy positions and controlling risk personally.
Looking at the market, gold XAU has sharply retraced, and US stocks are under pressure simultaneously, indicating a systemic risk appetite contraction. Under this major trend, crypto assets are unlikely to break away and form an independent rally.
Federal Reserve officials have hawkish statements, and there is still room for debate on a December rate hike, so macro pressure continues. Maintain a bearish outlook with a target of 72000. $ETH #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 In this round of decline, institutions are not the main players, but their actions carry the most information. Because retail investors can bet on sentiment, institutional subscriptions and redemptions follow a process—slow but real. Looking at capital flows is not about direction, but about the nature of redemptions.
For $BTC, on the first full trading day after the event, ETFs had a net outflow of 643 million, the largest single-day outflow since the end of June, with IBIT alone withdrawing 234 million. But looking at the base: cumulative net inflow is still 57.4 billion, with net assets of 103.2 billion. This is deleveraging, not liquidation.
$ETH is worse, with net outflows for five consecutive days, 431 million withdrawn in a week, and 1.61 billion outflow in the entire October. Institutions clearly have less patience for ETH.
$SOL ETFs were originally small in scale, also with five consecutive days of outflows, only two days of net inflows in the whole month, and the cold start of the new product was directly interrupted.
The ETF story is not over, but the pace was forcibly stopped by this event.#PalantirQ3Valuation An annualized funding rate of about 11% concerns me more than breaking an integer price level. Let's consider the worst-case scenario first: if you are long with leverage, and the price continues to drop while the positive funding rate persists, then unrealized losses and holding costs could together consume your margin, potentially triggering a liquidation in severe cases. ETH has broken the price level this time, but the price movement over the past day is still positive, so this cannot be taken as direct evidence of a one-sided decline.
I believe that for leveraged longs, holding costs should be calculated more carefully than integer price levels. ⚠️ There are two risks here: under a positive funding rate, longs have to pay even while waiting for a rebound; the annualized rate is just a conversion of the current rate and does not represent fixed future costs. This is my risk analysis, not a prediction of future price movements.
My reminder to myself is: when calculating the maximum tolerable loss per trade, don't just consider the stop-loss price; also budget for funding fees and slippage. A stop-loss is a constraint, not a guarantee of execution—don't mistake the ability to withstand on paper for actually being able to hold through.#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 以前咱们币圈在华盛顿面前，那是出了名的“软柿子”，谁都能来捏两下。但现在不一样了，兄弟们，这回咱们是真金白银砸下去，直接去跟老美政客玩“权力的游戏”了！ 马上就是美国的中期选举了，众议院435个席位全部改选，参议院也要换35个席位。这可不是换几个人那么简单，谁拿下了国会的控制权，谁就掌握了未来几年美国立法和财政的生杀大权。最炸裂的消息是啥？咱们加密行业这回雄起了，直接通过政治行动委员会砸了大概2.33亿美元进去，就为了把那些支持加密货币的政客给抬进国会。不过，地缘政治上也有个雷，有消息说以色列总理在暗中催促特朗普，等选举一结束就去打击伊朗。 小马哥的个人看法是：这就叫“打不过就加入”，用魔法打败魔法。 以前SEC天天追着咱们屁股后面罚钱、定性证券，咱们只能被动挨打。现在好了，币圈的大佬们终于想明白了，与其天天被裁判吹黑哨，不如自己花钱去当赞助商、去选个对咱们有利的裁判。这2.33亿美元砸下去，绝对不是做慈善，这是在给自己买“护身符”。只要国会里多几个懂Web3、支持加密法案的议员，未来那些奇葩的监管阻力就会小得多。不过，中东那个潜在The election is tomorrow! Stop guessing blindly; the whales' "trump cards" have long been written on the chain.
Lords, tomorrow is the midterm election, followed closely by the non-farm payroll on Friday. Retail investors are sweating over the candlestick charts, while whales are doing three things:
First, "ducking" before the event. In the 24 hours before the FOMC decision, whales reduced their holdings by 8,162 BTC (about $664 million) in one go. Data shows that whenever there’s an election, CPI, or non-farm payroll, whales’ default move is to reduce exposure and increase stablecoin allocation before the event, never betting on direction.
Second, not betting on direction but "collecting rent." A certain whale built a $650 million short portfolio that looks bearish on the surface but is actually playing funding rate arbitrage, earning $74 million in 7 days passively. Retail investors get liquidated on spikes, while whales earn interest in derivatives.
Third, acting separately after the event. After the non-farm payroll release, some whales chasing the ETH rally stopped losses and lost $10.67 million; meanwhile, large funds quietly accumulated 41,025 BTC in the ten days before the election. Whales chasing rallies die in the short term; whales accumulating survive in the long term.
So, lords, whales have only one rule: unload risk before major events land, then pick up chips afterward. If you can’t handle a $650 million arbitrage pot, at least don’t stick your neck out as a target when whales are "ducking." In the past couple of days, rather than watching who is bottom-fishing, I’m more focused on tracking the hackers’ addresses.
What can be seen on-chain: some of the stolen tokens have already been swapped for ETH, with a transfer of 17,260 ETH to a new address. Binance said about $3 billion of the involved assets have been frozen on-chain.
Swapping to ETH is a smart move. Stablecoin issuers can directly freeze tokens, but ETH doesn’t have that feature. So swapping reduces the risk of being directly frozen.
But a transfer doesn’t equal a sell-off, so we need to keep monitoring.
Going forward, I’ll watch whether the address continues splitting, whether it enters exchange channels, and if there’s a reaction in the ETH order book after large transfers—checking if the timing and amounts match. After Bybit was hacked last year, ETH was split for a long time before gradually entering channels. Let’s wait and see how the pace goes this time.I saw the integer level being broken down, and my first reaction was not to guess the bottom but to look at risk appetite and leverage costs. Macro liquidity determines whether funds are willing to take risks; individual price levels act more like amplifiers of sentiment and cannot be taken alone as a verdict on the trend.
This time it was $ETH breaking below $2,300, currently at $2,294, but still up 1.22% in 24 hours. The publicly available perpetual market data from Hyperliquid cited shows a 24-hour trading volume of about $382 million, a funding rate of 0.0013% per hour, annualized about 11%, and an open interest of about $2.251 billion. This is just a contract slice from a single platform, not the entire market's capital flow.
My judgment is that short-term sentiment is bearish, but directly inferring a trend reversal is a bit hasty. Breaking the integer level and rising in 24 hours are not contradictory; they reflect different observation windows. A positive funding rate means longs are still paying to hold positions but does not prove that large funds are bottom-fishing.
In my speculation, if macro liquidity tightens, risk appetite falls, and price is under pressure while open interest does not decrease, then leverage costs may amplify the pressure on longs. Conversely, if open interest falls and funding rates cool down, it may be digesting leverage, so we should not just focus on the break to call danger.
I prefer to first look at the capital environment, then the gain or loss of the level. Facing this break, which macro factor is everyone most concerned about now: a stronger dollar, interest rate expectations, or overall risk appetite? $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
Bitcoin Market Today: The rebound is a “self-rescue,” not a “reversal”
· Midterm Elections: Expectations for a Democratic “blue wave” are heating up, which may bring regulatory pressure, making market sentiment cautious.
Combining market performance: BTC fluctuated between 77,600–78,900 today. The core driver of this rebound is Binance resuming withdrawals, alleviating liquidity panic caused by last week's hacking incident. But note several details:
① The Fear and Greed Index remains in the fear zone at 34–37.
② The price is still below SMA20 (around 80,900) and SMA50 (around 81,900), with MACD showing a bearish alignment.
③ The options market shows a rare inverse spread, with near-month contract prices lower than spot, indicating short-term hedging demand exceeds speculative long demand.Spot is continuing to be supported, and contract funds are also starting to flow back
Just finished reviewing the latest capital flows; BTC, ETH, and ZEC all show synchronized net inflows in both spot and contracts, but the intensity varies significantly.
BTC's net contract inflow in the past 24 hours is $170 million, with spot net inflow at $66.5612 million. Both leveraged funds and real buying are returning simultaneously, making it currently the most stable to hold. However, looking at the week-long data, BTC contracts still show a net outflow of $2.603 billion, indicating that short-term sentiment is recovering, but mid-term funds have not fully shifted yet.
ETH's net contract inflow in the past 24 hours is $54.4817 million, with spot net inflow at $11.5629 million, also warming up following BTC, but the strength is noticeably weaker. It currently looks more like previously withdrawn funds are replenishing positions, and it cannot yet be defined as a strong accumulation.
ZEC's capital structure is relatively independent; 24-hour contract net inflow is $13.9143 million, spot net inflow is $19.2928 million; spot still shows a net inflow of $43.5742 million over the week, indicating that the support is not solely driven by leveraged funds, but spot side also has backing.
Currently, BTC is responsible for stabilizing the market, ETH continues to follow, and ZEC maintains independent strength. In the short term, a rebound continuation can be expected, but weekly and 30-day capital data remain weak, so it is still too early to talk about a full reversal.$SUI (Sui)
SUI HAS TECHNOLOGY MOMENTUM, BUT SUPPLY PRESSURE MATTERS!
$SUI is trading around $0.90, with recent weekly weakness. Its expanding integrations and AI-agent demonstrations provide interesting ecosystem developments. However, the scheduled November token unlock deserves attention because additional circulating supply can influence market liquidity and sentiment.
#Sui #SUI #Layer1 #CryptoResearch #OKXOrbit$PONS $PONS has dropped from 0.78 to around 0.24, and many people have started asking "Is it a good time to buy?" Here's the conclusion: it is not a token that has "fallen enough"; it is a token whose "story is still there, but the flywheel is stuck."
Pons is the launchpad on Robinhood Chain. $PONS operates through protocol fee buyback and burn, with 80% of revenue going into the buyback pool. The model itself is sound — the more tokens issued → the more fees → the more buybacks → the more burns, the logic chain is complete.
The problem lies in the starting point of "the more tokens issued." Pons' graduation rate has always been a major weakness; many new tokens fail to complete the curve and die halfway. Once token issuance shrinks, the fuel for buybacks is cut off. The community has previously questioned the timeliness of buybacks and the relatively low burn rate. Founder Ozzy admitted in early October that the burn rate had not yet been adjusted, and the Claim process is not fully decentralized.
Currently at $0.24, with a market cap of 164 million, and 24h trading volume of 21.88 million — liquidity is still there.
So this is not to fud you, but to remind you of one thing: the bullish logic of PONS depends on the return of token issuance enthusiasm on Robinhood Chain. Buyback and burn are the result, not the cause. Instead of focusing on burn data to buy the dip, it's better to watch daily token issuance and graduation rate. If the flywheel spins, it is a deflationary machine; if the flywheel is stuck, it is a shell with a story but insufficient fuel.My schedule this week is packed with earnings reports 👇
On the morning of 11/3, I'll first look at Apple and Palantir.
Palantir set its own Q3 revenue guidance at $2.16 billion, with a 93% growth last quarter. The valuation is already so high; I want to see if it can hold up this time.
On the morning of 11/4, the company I'm most eager to watch is AMD, which guided Q3 revenue at about $13 billion (with a $300 million margin). Last week, cloud providers spent so much money; this is the first time to verify demand from the chip seller's side. On the same day, there are also SMCI and Arista.
From 11/4 to 11/5, it's Circle, Arm, and Qualcomm's turn. Honestly, Circle is the one I care about most. I work on-chain myself and really want to see if the stablecoin issuer's revenue can convince Wall Street.
On the evening of 11/6, there is also the US October nonfarm payroll report.
Last week, the free cash flow of cloud providers already shocked the market. This week, I will focus on one thing: whether the chip sellers can pull the sentiment back.
Are you betting on AMD to beat expectations, or will the valuation continue to be cut?
#AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 ZEC rebounded more than 5% intraday from the low point, with whales chasing the rally by buying about $23 million. Is it moving again?
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
The short-term rebound has volume and logic but is far from the "takeoff again" stage; it's more of an oversold recovery plus event-driven rather than a trend reversal.
1️⃣ Price-wise, it rose from the low to the 1270-1280 range, with a significant intraday recovery and outperformance against BTC in 24h, indicating funds are accumulating at low levels.
2️⃣ Whales chased longs over $23 million, combined with Lookonchain's previous report of spot + low-leverage long positions, showing some smart money is actively positioning rather than pure retail sentiment.
3️⃣ Fundamentally, the privacy narrative has heated up again after the hacker incident, with increased demand for "verifiable privacy"; the NU7 upgrade is approaching; meanwhile, ZEC-related ETFs saw net inflows last week, indicating marginal funds are indeed flowing in.
But looking deeper, risks remain.
Overall market fear sentiment hasn't dissipated; macro variables like mid-term elections and employment data persist. Although ZEC's market cap has returned to the top ten, leverage positions are concentrated. Once macro weakens or short covering ends, rapid pullbacks are likely. Whale chasing is a double-edged sword itself, as adding positions at highs increases volatility.
Trading advice:
You can lightly and gradually monitor the 1250-1280 support zone for effectiveness, consider adding positions after breaking previous highs;
Strictly set stop-loss below the low point to avoid chasing highs.
Position size should be controlled within 5% of total funds, prioritizing observation of ETF flows and NU7 rollout pace. $ZEC $BEAT is really surging aggressively, not dropping at all. It can't go up nor down, is it brewing a big move? Manipulators.
Near support: 0.102–0.105
Strong support: 0.095–0.100
Near resistance: 0.112–0.115
Strong resistance: 0.120–0.130
OKX BEAT long-short ratio
Retail investors: ↑ 2.19 → Bullish
Number of large holders: ↓ 1.58 → Bullish
Large holders' positions: ↓ 0.82 → Bearish
Main force sentiment: Extremely bearish
The structure shows a typical divergence of “more people bullish, positions bearish, main force extremely bearish.”
Retail and large holder numbers lean bullish, but large holders' real positions lean bearish, and the main force is extremely bearish. Historically, this structure tends to lead to "bull trap followed by a dump" or a high-level oscillation then decline, so caution is highly advised.
Around November 1, about 17.6–22M BEAT (about 5–6% of total circulation, valued around $1.8–2M) will unlock, involving Community, Advisors & Angels, Foundation, Team, etc.
Similar scale linear unlocks will continue at the beginning of each month.
Project progress: Audiera, as a game/AI-related project, has a burn mechanism to offset some supply, but unlocking pressure still exists. Overall, it is heavily influenced by market sentiment.
$BTC $ETH #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ On Monday morning, $BTC pulled back to 78,600, but what concerns me more is that in this rebound, there is almost no "new money" pushing it.
Looking at several data points together:
· BTC rose about 0.7% in 24 hours, $ETH is around 2290 USD;
· In the most recent trading day (10/30), the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about 643 million USD, ETH ETF outflow about 156 million, and ETH ETF has had net outflows for 23 consecutive trading days;
· On OKX, the current funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is about 0.005%, below the usual 0.01% level, indicating leveraged longs are not crowded.
My understanding: this looks more like a technical correction after digesting the panic from the exchange hack, shorts are covering, but incremental funds have not yet entered. The advantage is that leverage is not heavy, so it’s not easy for a sharp drop to occur; the downside is the lack of sustained buying, so around 79,000–80,000 there will likely be hesitation.
I’m watching two points myself: whether the support near 76,000 (the low area after the hack news) holds; and whether the ETF data from the US stock market trading day tonight (to be released early tomorrow Beijing time) can turn positive. If ETFs continue to see outflows but prices go up, I will be more cautious rather than chasing.
What do you think? Is this round driven by new money entering, or shorts covering?> US stocks plummeted, A-shares plummeted
> Intel and Google plummeted
> Panic index surged
> Historically only 3 VIX gaps not filled: April 14 2025, April 8 2026, and yesterday's gap
> Historical data shows probability of filling gap within 180 trading days ∼97%
> I started bottom-fishing US stock indexes, buying more as they fall, only spot no leverage, but I avoid A-shares
#AMDQ3HeliosRevenue Big bro Maji got slammed by the trend again this round.
He threw in 65 million dollars, trying to hedge ETH longs with BTC shorts, but got slapped on both ends.
The craziest part is he still dared to heavily hold HYPE shorts against the trend, stubbornly fighting the main uptrend.
All I can say is no matter how big the capital, it's just an ant; in front of the trend, all beings are equal 😂 $BTC $ETH #闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13% $DOGE is at a loss because it simply doesn't follow the upward trend.
No movement over the weekend, and $DOGE's unrealized loss has returned to around 300U.
How is this number calculated: it gains less when rising, but doesn't drop a step when falling.
Adding and subtracting, after giving back all the gains, what's left is the loss.
Where exactly is it weak: mainstream coins have capital support, it relies on sentiment to push.
Once sentiment dissipates, the price hangs in place with no one to catch it.
$BTC is hovering around 78000, looking like it's waiting for someone to take the order.
But sideways movement itself doesn't indicate direction, it only shows that neither buyers nor sellers are in a hurry.
What really needs watching is whether the 76000 level can hold.
If it doesn't hold, the earlier batch of leveraged long positions will be directly liquidated by the system.
The sell orders will push the price down further, and the next batch will be sold off as well.
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 $DOGE $BTC $OP looks suspicious: up over 30% in 7 days, but trading volume is only around 30% of normal.
This suggests a weak rally driven more by limited selling than strong buying demand. Low-volume pumps can reverse quickly when larger sell orders hit.
Meanwhile, OP remains 17% below its 30-day level and 20% lower over six months, leaving many late buyers underwater.
The recovery looks promising, but without stronger volume, it's hard to trust this momentum.
$OP #Crypto #TradingPalantir is also a Yes, but not so certain.
It needs to exceed consensus by a penny or two to pass the line, which sounds like a lot, but $PLTR has beaten expectations very strongly in past quarters, not just gradually. At this pace, a penny or two is not difficult.
What makes me hesitate is that recently analysts have been quietly lowering their expectations, and the company's own revenue guidance is slightly below what the market wants.
#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 手里有300枚BTC现货，我却总在想那个提前下车的自己 你有没有算过，一次"怕穷"的念头，到底值多少钱？ 翻到一条旧帖，看完安静了好一会儿。2022年底，有人本可以拿到300枚BTC现货，却因为害怕突然归零、害怕被清算，撤走了八成资金，转身去抄了200港元的腾讯，还卖得很早。2024年BTC到57000，他去做空，交易账户亏掉两百万美元，补了一百万，一个多月又赚回来。到2026年，账户里重新站上300枚BTC的等值。绕了一大圈，回到原点，但中间那些失眠的夜是真的。 我盯着这段复盘，第一反应不是羡慕，是心疼那个每次都在关键节点被恐惧推着走的人。这其实是一份很典型的仓位管理病历：不是看错方向，是拿不住对的仓位。撤资抄底腾讯，本质是把高波动资产换成低波动资产，风险偏好瞬间降档；57000做空，是在上涨趋势里逆势加杠杆，赌的是回调，输的是节奏。两次操作背后是同一个东西：对回撤的忍耐度太低。 现在的市场在交易什么？我觉得不是单纯的方向，而是资金对"确定性"的偏好。BTC走到这个位置，愿意追高的人变少了，愿意在回调里接的人也在挑位置。ETH和山寨的弹性还在，但资金明显更愿意给有叙事、有现金流预期的Besides Binance, three other platforms are bleeding!
Binance was hacked for about $6.3 billion, and the whole network is watching. But in the same week, at least three others were also stolen from, just smaller amounts and no one is talking.
Unleash Protocol, around October 29, about $3.9 million: multisig governance was exploited, the attacker gained admin rights, pushed an unauthorized contract upgrade, and directly withdrew funds; 1337 ETH went into Tornado Cash.
Troves, October 31, 8.6 BTC: the old rebalancing contract was replaced but permissions were not revoked, the attacker entered through an open door; the team could only post an on-chain message, offering 1 WBTC to ask the attacker to return the funds.
Premia Labs, November 1, about $464,000 (according to PeckShield): flash loans plus short option pools, collateral from six vaults was drained — its total locked value on Arbitrum was only about $530,000, nearly 90% lost.
PeckShield statistics: 56 major attacks in October, total losses $6.48 billion, Binance alone accounts for about 97%, the remaining 55 attacks total about $180 million.
Also stolen: Binance covered and replenished about 95%; Troves is pleading with the hacker; Premia has not yet said whether it will compensate. Annualized returns are clearly priced, but security never is.
$BTC C #securityCT peaked at 0.15466 yesterday and has fallen back to around 0.133 today.
At 11 o'clock yesterday, the hourly candle closed with a trading volume of $317,500, closing at 0.14805. By 13:32 today, OKEx spot reported 0.13279, down about 8.27% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of approximately $2,648,100. The buy and sell orders within 1% of the current price are about $99,700 and $68,700 respectively.
My judgment is that the volume surge and price spike yesterday did not continue. The recently closed hourly candle from 12 to 13 o'clock had a trading volume of $88,700, which is lower than the average volume of $96,700 over the previous 12 closed hours. The price has fallen back, and the volume has not shown new expansion.
It is easy to mistake the buy orders still hanging on the order book as someone having caught the decline. Next, I will watch for two consecutive closed hourly candles; if the volume exceeds $96,700 and the closing price rises candle by candle, I will reassess this pullback; if the volume remains low, I will not consider the order book depth as evidence of a bottom.
$CT $ETH $BTC $SOL prices have risen, but institutional funds have not yet returned.
On the morning of November 2, CoinMarketCap data showed $BTC at about $78,296, up 1.16% in 24 hours; $ETH at $2,278, up 1.18%; $SOL at $94.57, down 0.82%. Among the top 100, $TRUMP led gains with an 8.43% increase, while Meme fell 6.09% at the bottom. The Fear and Greed Index was 35, still in the fear zone.
Why the disconnect? Two sets of facts: First, on October 30, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $643 million in one day, giving back the approximately $441 million inflow of the previous four days; the Ethereum ETF also had a net outflow of about $156 million that day. Second, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $76,190 last week Monday but closed daily above the 365-day moving average of $77,019.
The logic is: short-term is emotional repair, long-term is capital confirmation. Price rebounds do not equal institutional re-entry; ETF outflows slowing or turning positive is a stronger confirmation signal. $TRUMP led gains while the Meme sector overall fell 0.25%, indicating this is just a localized rotation. Solana minted $250 million USDC on-chain but did not drive $SOL to rise.
Price ranges: $BTC fluctuated between $77,517 and $78,422, with $78,000 as a contested level; $ETH ranged from $2,248 to $2,278, with around $2,300 as a signal?$TRX
I've been watching a detail for two days. After the Binance hack, the largest money laundering flow on the chain went through TRON.
In two days, about 242 million USD was laundered from the hacker's hands via TRON. Today Gate said it froze two related accounts; 250,000 was still deposited there 12 hours ago.
TRX is now 0.3145, up 0.16% in 24 hours. The range is 0.3094 to 0.3157, as narrow as if no one is trading.
The contract side is even colder. TRX perpetual total open interest is 23 million USD. The hacker handled 242 million, ten times the open interest, yet the price remains unchanged.
I've thought about it for a long time; the logic is simple. Money laundering needs a transfer channel, not chips. The dealer just passes through, doesn't build a position, so no matter how lively the chain is, it doesn't reflect on the order book.
Conversely, if one day TRX suddenly surges with volume accompanied by such news, my first reaction probably wouldn't be positive.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？