Orbit Post Sitemap
The stablecoin supply is retreating, but I care more about the capital's ability to absorb than rushing to declare the market dead. DefiLlama data shows that the total circulating supply of USD stablecoins across the network is about $298.5 billion, down $463 million in one day and $4.457 billion in one week.
I see this as a bearish signal on the liquidity front: stablecoins are an important carrier of on-exchange purchasing power, and a shrinking scale means less ammunition for potential buyers. However, this round of contraction is uneven; USDT decreased by $3 billion in a week, while USDC only dropped by $55.95 million. We cannot mix changes in different capital groups into a story of a "full-scale retreat."
There is another distinction I remind myself of: circulating supply is not buy or sell orders and cannot be directly used to infer coin prices. If the contraction continues, I will be more worried about a lack of support for a rebound; for now, I am watching whether the shrinkage continues and will not write the market's conclusion based on one week's data.Uniswap ($UNI) Aggregator Hooks earnings are indeed a bit low.
Currently, it's only about $200 per day, which amounts to just over $70,000 per year.
Compared to the overall trading volume of Uniswap, this income is almost negligible.
It seems unrealistic at the moment to expect significant burn growth for $UNI from aggregator fees.
Compared to this time when bn was hacked, OKX has never experienced a large-scale attack since its establishment, so $OKB is worth having! $ETH
BTC is still sluggish, but ETH surprisingly shows no mercy, shooting straight up from a standstill!
【Hardcore review of this “ETH uprising”】：
Look at the 1-hour chart, it surged hard from 2171 all the way to 2307, completely breaking through the moving average resistance. MACD shows a golden cross above the zero line, with the red bars continuously expanding, indeed forming an independent trend even stronger than BTC.
But here’s the unique insight: switching to chart 2 data, retail long positions account for as high as 66.19%! And the funding rate has actually turned negative. What does this mean? Retail investors are blindly chasing longs, while the smart money is quietly shorting. This rally looks more like a bull trap, and it could retrace at any time, wiping out those chasing the highs.
Macro logic: Overall market liquidity is tightening, BTC is consolidating and draining funds, so speculative capital inside the market can only seek volatility in ETH.
My advice: Don’t get greedy chasing highs! Where retail crowds gather is where traps are set. Wait for a pullback that doesn’t break the previous low (around 2250), then we can enter on the right side. Jumping in now risks becoming lunch for the market manipulators again $BTC $SOL #Nonfarm payrolls incoming, will the December rate hike change? Tomorrow is the midterm election, and many people ask me what I think. To be honest, the election result itself is noise; the real game is in the "path behind the result." The market basically has its cards on the table now: on Polymarket, the Democrats have a 93% chance of taking the House and a 67% chance of taking both chambers. Since everyone is already betting that the Democrats will take at least one chamber, the real expectation gap is not in the House but in the Senate. I'll put it this way: the impact of this situation on our market mainly depends on three things: First, the Fed's "political burden" is lifted. If, as expected, the government and Congress are divided, the White House's attempt at fiscal expansion will be blocked. This is good for inflation, easing supply pressure on long-term interest rates. For the Fed, with fiscal expansion limited, the political pressure on Waller regarding the December rate hike is reduced. So no matter who wins, as long as Congress is split, it actually mildly supports a "higher for longer" interest rate path. Don't expect a big liquidity injection right after the election. Second, the crypto circle's critical point is on one chair. Don't listen to those who only look at macro and talk nonsense. What crypto really fears is the Democrats sweeping both chambers. Why? Because if the Democrats really take both chambers, the Senate Banking Committee chair will be Elizabeth Warren. She is the number one enemy of the crypto world; she led the opposition to the CLARITY Act. The first thing she would do upon taking office is definitely to issue subpoenas and investigate the OCC's granting of bank charters to Ripple, Coinbase, and the Trump family projects.The recharge port just froze two linked accounts,
which does not mean the money has been recovered,
nor does it mean the entire laundering path has been cut off.
Keep an eye on whether they will change addresses and continue to funnel funds into other ports.
$TRX At lunch, Bitcoin bounced back to 78,500, finally catching a breather. The aftershocks of the Binance hack haven't faded yet; wherever the money moves, that's where the market goes. BNB, OKB, and HYPE are each stuck at three key levels.
$BNB near 712.7, bleeding but not collapsing
Up 1.4% in 24 hours. Withdrawals resumed on Sunday. DefiLlama calculates a net outflow of $5.8 billion in 24 hours, Binance claims to have reimbursed 95%. It dropped to 699 on the day of the hack and is still about 5% below pre-incident levels, pressing below the 50-day moving average.
$OKB near 113.95, most buyers 🏦
Up 3% in 24 hours. The Block cites DefiLlama data: on the day Binance had net outflows, the top ten exchanges had a net inflow of $368 million, with OKX alone taking $316.8 million. OKX's assets are only 29 billion, Binance's 171 billion, so much of this is sentiment premium.
$HYPE near 87.72, ICE bullishness fading
Down 0.5% in 24 hours. On October 29, ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, announced bringing Hyperliquid perpetuals to the US, causing a 13%+ jump that day. Now it has fallen back below the 88 breakout line, with about $870 million unlocking on the 6th.
OKB is the strongest but is absorbing Binance's outflows; once outflows peak, the premium will retreat first. As long as BNB holds 699, it means the market trusts full compensation. HYPE is the most precarious; if it can't reclaim 88, it will likely seek support between 80 and 82 before unlocking. #NonfarmPayrollsIncoming, will December rate hikes change? $PEPE hackers dumped a full 30 million dollars, flooding the market with 7.77 trillion PEPE tokens, but the price only dropped to around 5000 before the buy orders at the bottom instantly absorbed everything.
The 7.77 trillion token gap from the Binance hack hasn't been filled yet; sooner or later, buy orders will have to be placed on the spot market to restock.
Even a massive 30 million dump couldn't break through; there are still rigid buy orders waiting to take over. The support at this low level is extremely strong, and if the bears keep holding on stubbornly, they'll just end up paying interest.
#PEPE
$PEPE
👇$NEAR NEAR is hyping up the AI hackathon quite a bit, but when I checked the accounts, I couldn't help but laugh.
In the past month, the protocol revenue was only $760,000, not even enough cash to cover the $250,000 event prize, so they paid it entirely with freshly minted native tokens.
The key point is that the amount of new tokens issued each month is several times more than the tokens bought back, and the repurchased tokens are not burned but kept in the project team's account.
They're purely riding the AI hype by overissuing tokens, and once the hackathon ends, there will be a bunch of sell pressure and flight. I remain bearish on this position.
#NEAR
$NEAR
👇$SUI spot is sideways like a dead fish around 0.9, but the contract long-short ratio has been forcibly bought above 2.1.
A large unlock is coming soon, and the open interest is still rising strangely. The entire network's bulls are crowded at this position, hoping to catch a rebound.
Look at this crowded carriage, with such a lousy market, if it doesn't plunge down with a big wick to wash out this batch of early runners, the market makers will pull the price up.
#SUI
$SUI
👇Are you still unaware of the seriousness of this matter while surfing the internet? 🏄
Traditional giants do not reject blockchain technology itself, but firmly resist "unauthorized third-party wrapped tokens." Nvidia, Costco, Nike, and 50 other top publicly traded companies collectively exercised the SEC-granted "one-vote veto power."
More and more publicly traded companies are refusing to cooperate with OKXICE.
Why? DTCC's securities tokenization service and OKXICE, a tokenized securities platform jointly established by OKX and Intercontinental Exchange, represent two completely different technical and institutional paths for US stock on-chain: "top-down extension of traditional core infrastructure" versus "compliant sandbox integration of DeFi trading architecture."
OKXICE:
Network choice: Built on XLayer, an Ethereum Layer 2 network under OKX, with a permission-modified on-chain liquidity pool architecture at the base layer.
Token generation logic: The platform itself and its affiliates do not issue any tokens but allow "third-party institutions unrelated to the listed companies" to package underlying US stocks into tokens for trading, paired with compliant payment stablecoins. This architecture essentially "wraps" traditional stocks into ERC-20 format certificates through third-party trusts or SPV structures.
For crypto exchanges to truly bring mainstream US stocks into the DeFi architecture, relying solely on regulatory "sandbox exemptions" is not enough; in the future, they must shift from "third-party unilateral token issuance" to an issuer authorization model that cooperates directly with listed companies and underlying custodians.My first reaction was to record this order as a “bearish signal” and I almost bookmarked it, but then I felt I was jumping to conclusions too quickly. After being in the circle for a year, I still tend to treat large transactions as answers 🤔
This monitoring shows that Core Trader 98 (0x376a38…9a9ff) opened a short position on BTC with 20x leverage, holding 1.91164 BTC, with a notional value of about $150,000, at a reference price of $78,468. Currently, this is just the opening information; the result of this trade is not yet available.
My understanding is that this is more suitable as an observation clue and cannot be directly used as a market judgment, not sure if that’s correct. First, the $150,000 is the notional exposure, which does not equal the amount of principal invested, nor can it directly measure how bearish he is. If the price rises 1% against the position, roughly calculated at the current position size, the unrealized loss would be about $1,500, excluding fees; leverage amplifies the capital pressure. Second, the monitoring only shows this one short position; if there are spot holdings outside the wallet, it could also be used for hedging, which is my speculation, but the data cannot confirm this.
I haven’t figured out yet how to distinguish between actively betting on direction and hedging needs; just looking at this alert is obviously not enough. Next, I will observe whether this address continues to add shorts or reduce positions, reminding myself not to imagine a complete strategy from someone else’s single action.$CL This market is so surreal. Yesterday, a tanker was just bombed in the Strait of Hormuz, and today Iran throws out a "two-day plan" — Day one: the US unfreezes funds, lifts the blockade, and ends regional wars; Day two: the strait reopens, with very tough and full conditions. $BTC $ETH
Trump's side is also playing along, saying negotiations are progressing smoothly, then arrogantly adding that there's no rush to succeed, and casually naming Iran's Natanz nuclear facility. Both sides are fighting with words; the real trump cards probably won't be revealed until after the November 3 midterm elections.
Crude oil is currently the most conflicted: the strait explosion pushes prices up, negotiation expectations pull them down, and Brent crude can drop several dollars in a day. This kind of news-driven market, geopolitical premiums come fast and go fast; the market surges on panic sentiment, making it a good window to short on rallies.
But don't just look at the news. The physical market is actually tight now; US commercial crude inventories have dropped to a low of 411 million barrels, and Goldman Sachs raised the year-end Brent target from 90 directly to 105 dollars. So shorting on rallies is fine, but be sure to set stop losses. If something big really happens in the strait or the situation escalates after the election, the rebound will be very violent.
Keep an eye on three signals these days: whether the US accepts the two-day plan, the November 3 election results, and whether there are new tanker incidents in the strait. #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？# This macro variable is suppressing risk appetite, but BTC still slightly rose against the trend early this morning. The short-term and mid-term directions are clearly conflicting; I tend to treat this rebound as a correction rather than a reversal. Both the four-hour and one-hour moving averages are pointing downwards, the price has retraced 7.01% from the four-hour high, yet is only 2.22% above the low, indicating the weak structure remains unchanged; the order book shows 1297 buy orders versus 848 sell orders in the top ten levels, a ratio of 1.53, with buyers clearly supporting around 78582.5. The funding rate at 0.0065% is relatively neutral, and with 34,000 contracts open, no panic exits are seen. The divergence lies in "short-term long, long-term short." Strategically, a light long position can be tried on a pullback to 77965, with a stop loss at 77385 and a target of 79325; if the rebound at 79325 is resisted, then reverse to short, stop loss at 79915, target 78085. Single trade risk is controlled within 1.5% of total capital, halving positions before the non-farm payroll.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$BTC#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
$BTC $BEAT firmly holds short positions. The bullish whales are trapped with so many positions; the market makers definitely won't easily help them get out. Even if it rallies, there will be significant selling pressure.$UNITREE liquidity dried up during the market closure, with the main force crushing the price from 97 down to 86 at extremely low cost before pulling it back, a pure long-short double kill meat grinder.
From a fundamental perspective, Unitree's Q3 revenue surged nearly 70%, but profits fell 17% (R&D spending is burning fiercely). With a sky-high P/E ratio of 465 times (industry average is 38 times), the market is currently "killing high valuations" to cool down the previous frenzy buying.
The market closure spike is purely a trap. Don't chase it at all; wait for the US stock market to officially open to see the real support. If it holds firmly above 97, it means the bulls are strong enough; if it opens and falls back below 95, then the current rebound is a shorting opportunity. Charging in now is just giving away your head.BTC rose 0.48% intraday but fell 2.58% on the weekly chart. Is this bullish candle the start of a recovery or just a brief pause in a downtrend? 1. News. BTC is priced at $78,355.7, up 0.48% in 24 hours and down 2.58% over the past week, with a 20-day range between $76,265.2 and $84,899.6. The market is still digesting a net outflow of about $5.8 billion following Binance's withdrawal resumption. The price has rebounded from the low but has not yet reclaimed the previously lost $79,220 level, showing a clear divergence between the trend and intraday performance. 2. Capital impact. The latest single-day net inflow into BTC ETFs is $34.7 million, with a 5-day net inflow of $413.8 million and a 10-day net inflow of $176.9 million. The US Dollar Index stands at 101.92, up 0.04% intraday; gold is up 0.42%; the Fear & Greed Index rose from 34 to 37. Capital, sentiment, and price are all improving simultaneously, but each improvement is modest. 3. BTC implications. A one-day rise only indicates a temporary easing of selling pressure and does not confirm a reversal. If BTC continues to hold $76,265 and reclaims $79,220, the daily chart recovery will be confirmed; if the rebound is blocked again near $79,220, the current rise looks more like a technical correction of the previous decline. The weekly chart remains negative, so chasing gains requires stricter conditions. 4. Observation indicators. I will focus on four indicators next: first, whether $76,265 can continue to hold; second, whether the daily chart can reclaim $79,220; third, whether ETF single-day inflows can recover above $100 million; fourth, the fearIs Bitcoin's four-year cycle about to start a new round?
Looking at the weekly chart over a longer period, the past two cycles basically consisted of three years of bull market and one year of bear market.
Breaking above the 50-week moving average often signals the gradual unfolding of a bull market; falling below it, the bear market gives investors a tough time!
In this cycle, $BTC has dropped from above $120,000 to around $60,000, and now it has climbed back above the 50-week moving average and the bull-bear transition zone, currently around $78,000. Will history repeat itself again?【The US Wants Russian Gas to Return to Europe, Energy Business Becomes a Ceasefire Bargaining Chip】
The US is pushing to restore Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine, even considering having the US act as an intermediary to handle sales and escrow the revenue, giving Putin a reason for a ceasefire while allowing Ukraine to collect transit fees. The most notable aspect of this deal is that energy supply is directly placed on the Russia-Ukraine negotiation table.
Europe currently does lack cheap gas. As of October 21, EU storage was about 75%, lower than the same period in previous years, and TTF natural gas futures recently briefly exceeded €100/MWh. Disruptions in Middle Eastern supply and intensified LNG competition have pushed European energy costs higher, making the restoration of pipeline gas realistically attractive for lowering prices.
The biggest obstacle is that Europe has legislated to gradually ban Russian natural gas $NATGAS imports, with pipeline gas set to be fully phased out by autumn 2027 at the latest. Russia currently accounts for about 11% of the EU's gas supply, while US LNG already accounts for about 30%. The US is promoting the return of Russian gas while also being one of Europe's largest suppliers, indicating that there are clearly considerations beyond just ceasefire.
In the short term, it looks more like a bargaining chip rather than new supply. Only if it materializes will European gas prices have a sustained downward reason; before EU policies and Ukraine's stance soften, don't rush to treat this as bearish for the energy market. #Triển vọng báo cáo tài chính Palantir: Tăng trưởng cao có thể hỗ trợ định giá cao không Conclusion first: Bitcoin $BTC's current correction is not over yet, don't mistake the rebound for a reversal. Recently, I reviewed the mid-cycle pullbacks of every bull market, and the pattern all points to the same signal: this is still not the bottom.
After the price surged past 83,000 last month, market sentiment quickly heated up, with bullish voices everywhere. More people chased longs above 80,000, afraid to miss out. But the more unanimous this expectation, the more likely it becomes a leverage liquidation zone. Similar to gold $XAU's state after last year's peak, when sentiment is maxed out, it is often followed by a significant pullback.
My judgment is that high-leverage longs above 80,000 will most likely be swept out, with the downside target near 72,000 first; I won't consider going long until it drops below 72,000. $ETH will also follow BTC's rhythm, so don't rush to catch the bottom. What do you guys think?
This is just my personal review and does not constitute advice.
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 On the day Binance was hacked, 1390 ETH was dumped to reduce risk, and once a large withdrawal opened, another 2074 ETH worth about $4.7 million was withdrawn — an address linked to Kanye West, seemingly betting that ETH can still surge.
This address 0xdeA…a1d5c was tagged by on-chain analysts as associated with Kanye West, but it is not officially confirmed by him.
Around 0:36 this morning, it received about 2073.98 ETH from Binance's hot wallet, valued at about 2269 at withdrawal time, totaling about $4.7 million; ETH is now around 2309.
The funds are still sitting in the wallet, about 2083 ETH not deposited into Aave; it has collateralized about 21109 ETH in Aave and Spark combined, borrowing about $27.71 million in stablecoins, with health factors around 1.44 and 1.62.
No positions currently on Hyperliquid.
Simply put, withdrawing funds does not mean immediately increasing positions.
Whales cycling long positions is inherently volatile, and followers are most likely to catch the last leg.
I'm just watching myself, not following.
If this batch of ETH is transferred back to exchanges to sell, or if the health factor approaches 1.3 again, this story of increasing positions won't hold.
$ETH #波动雷达：币种异动观察 When I see this message, what comes to mind is when large capital will be willing to take on risk again. On a macro level, elections can change policy expectations, but the available funds in accounts do not automatically increase just because the voting has ended. I am used to viewing these two things separately.
According to Odaily's relay of Coin Bureau's analysis, the bottom of the past three Bitcoin cycles all appeared after the US midterm elections: 71 days after the election in 2014, 39 days in 2018, and 13 days in 2022. If this pattern repeats, the next window might be from the end of 2026 to early 2027. This provides a time reference for $BTC but is not evidence of a capital shift.
My judgment is that this message's effect on short-term sentiment may be greater than its effect on actual capital flows. Three samples can suggest a correlation but are insufficient to prove that elections drive the bottom; the continuously shortening intervals also cannot be directly extrapolated as a countdown to the next one.
My speculation is that if policy uncertainty decreases after the election, and at the same time interest rate expectations and US dollar liquidity move toward easing, then large capital resuming risk budgets would have a stronger foundation. Conversely, if financing costs remain high and capital still prefers risk aversion, then even if the calendar enters the window, it may not withstand the selling pressure.
I will keep this window on my watchlist but place more emphasis on whether funding costs and sustained absorption improve, rather than letting a pleasing cycle story make the judgment for me.It's almost noon, close to twelve. I glanced at the market and noticed that BTC and ETH secretly surged at noon. I guess many brothers threw down their chopsticks, slapped their thighs, and rushed in chasing the highs again. Stop right there! Watching the rising candlesticks feels great, but if we focus on the contract data, retail investors have already quietly started a mass exodus below!
First, look at $BTC, current price 78595, 4-hour long-short ratio 2.35. Although the bulls still dominate, it has clearly dropped from the high this morning. The area from 79000 to 80000 is full of trapped positions and short sellers lying in ambush. Chasing highs now is purely being used as stepping stones by the main players.
The most interesting is $ETH, current price 2306. This surge caused ETH's long-short ratio to crash from 3.44 this morning down to 1.88! The price went up, but bulls are frantically closing positions and running! This shows retail investors are scared of being trapped; they quickly take profits at the slightest pullback. This structure means heavy selling pressure above, so don't get carried away.
Next, $SOL, current price 95.5, is the most stubborn of all. The long-short ratio stubbornly stays high at 3.54! The open interest hasn't dropped at all; it's a bunch of bulls refusing to give up fighting to the end. With this layered leverage, if the big players don't drop a deep bomb to shake the market, it wouldn't do justice to these numbers.
To sum up, don't get blinded by this noon surge. The bulls themselves are quietly fleeing. Watch more, act less, and don't catch the falling knife.
What did everyone have for lunch today? With this surge, did you get a piece of the meat, or are you stuck halfway up the mountain again?
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
US stocks fell, and gold and silver also plunged. What happened to the promised safe-haven assets? Where did the money actually go?
Pharaoh bluntly says, this is called "everyone flies away when disaster strikes, only to find there’s not even a safe harbor, and all the money ends up in the US debt drain."
First, look at this bizarre scene. Tech stocks reported disappointing earnings, so the US stock market plunge is understandable. But gold and silver, the traditional kings of safe havens, also plunged in sync. Why? Because the Fed officials are still hawkish, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is stubbornly stuck above 5%. Think about it, isn’t it better to just lie back and earn a 5% risk-free interest? Who would want to spend money buying non-yielding gold? Even gold, with its thick eyebrows and big eyes, is being ground down, so silver naturally suffers too.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is in the most awkward position right now. It wanted to wear the "digital gold" label to hedge risk, but when it looks down, it still has the "high beta tech stock" tag stuck on it. When US stocks fall, it falls too; when gold falls, it can’t escape either. Not to mention it was just hacked for billions a few days ago, and market confidence hasn’t fully recovered. But Pharaoh has to say a long-term logic: when gold’s safe-haven halo is stripped away by high interest rates, capital will sooner or later realize that the US debt hole is getting bigger and bigger. This extremely distorted macro environment, in the long run, is actually the best breeding ground for Bitcoin’s "non-sovereign asset" narrative, it’s just that in the short term everyone is still panicking. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 To pour some cold water first, the more orderly the historical pattern, the more I want to ask: was the answer decided first, then the samples selected? My skepticism is not about Bitcoin itself, but about the confidence in packaging three coincidences as a timing advantage.
Coin Bureau analysis states that Bitcoin's past three bottoms all occurred after the US midterm elections: 71 days after in 2014, 39 days in 2018, and 13 days in 2022, proposing a potential window from the end of 2026 to early 2027. I think this inference is easily overestimated: with only three samples, coincidence cannot be ruled out; the intervals vary greatly, and "after the election" can describe sequence but cannot explain why the bottom occurs, nor predict the exact timing of the next one.
Of course, they might be right. If by then $BTC no longer continues to break lows amid bad news, and this resilience persists, I will reduce my doubts about the bottoming judgment. My reminder is: don't mistake date coincidence for logical fulfillment.🔴 Breaking: Withdrawal gates just opened, money is flowing out, but prices are surging up
The exchange hack incident has reached the stage of compensation and withdrawals: assets are compensated to users at actual amounts, and the USDC withdrawal channel on the ETH chain has reopened. The first reaction on-chain is not to buy the dip, but to relocate — some withdraw and then move funds into stablecoin wealth management.
But prices did not fall accordingly. BTC 78472 up 0.96%; ETH 2297 up 1.42%, back above 0.618 at 2220. Only SOL 95.05 down 0.45%, the only laggard.
Money is moving places, not exiting; this wave is short covering plus oversold recovery, not new capital inflow. The evidence is SOL lagging — if risk appetite truly returned, it shouldn’t be in the red. Weekend liquidity is thin, so gains should be discounted; Monday’s US market open is the real test.
Key levels: BTC 77620 is the low of this wave, losing it means a fake rebound; ETH 2247 is the intraday bottom, 2300 is a dense short squeeze zone above, a quick bounce doesn’t mean stronger, just that shorts are more squeezed.
📊 Investment advice
• BTC bullish — TP $84,750 / SL $72,195
• ETH bearish — TP $2,021 / SL $2,573
⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice. The market is volatile, please DYOR, risk at your own discretion. A giant whale was detected on the $ZEC chain buying 3,052 ZEC spot, and also going long 8,000 ZEC with 2x leverage!
Plus, with the NU7 mainnet upgrade on November 5, the market's most favored narrative is set.
The daily coin issuance remains unchanged, total supply is 21 million, halving schedule stays intact, no dilution downside, just splitting one large block into three smaller blocks, miners' daily earnings remain the same.
The Ironwood privacy pool has already launched, with a new encryption scheme that is resistant to future quantum computer attacks, enhancing privacy protection and securing a leading position among privacy coins. Currently, privacy transfers account for 62% of all transactions, and more users are willing to use it for private transactions, increasing demand.
What else is there to say? Just operate a long position at the current price of 1277, targeting 1320. #Nonfarm payrolls incoming, will the December rate hike change? Capital differentiation after the turmoil among leading platforms is more worth noting than price fluctuations: BTC products see capital outflows, ETH remains under continuous pressure, while TRUMP experiences a unique chip battle.
$BTC: Reference price around $78,600. On October 30, US spot ETFs had a net outflow of $643 million, but the previous four trading days saw a cumulative inflow of $441 million. Capital is not continuously withdrawing; the key is whether $78,000 can hold and $79,000 can be broken through.
$ETH: Around $2,307. Related ETFs have had net outflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $431 million. However, the price has climbed back above $2,300, indicating a divergence between short-term performance and product capital direction. Whether it can hold steady still needs confirmation.
$TRUMP: Around $1.73. The latest activity rules show that on November 12, coin holding rankings will be finalized; the top 185 can participate in the November 22 dinner, and the top 29 will have VIP status. Rankings are calculated based on the amount held and holding duration, which may create a phase of holding demand, but there is also a risk of capital exit after the cutoff. Short-term observation points are support at $1.70 and resistance at $1.80.
In short: BTC tests capital support, ETH tests rebound quality, and TRUMP tests how long demand driven by the event can last.
Do you think TRUMP will break through $1.80 first, or will the heat cool down after the ranking cutoff?
For personal record only, not investment advice
#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 $ETH
432 million USD. Ethereum spot ETFs have seen outflows like this for five consecutive weeks.
But the price hasn't followed. This morning ETH climbed from 2247 all the way to 2318, now at 2307, up a bit over 24 hours. ETFs are withdrawing, but the market is pushing up; these two flows of money are clearly not the same batch.
I casually checked the perpetual funding rate, still slightly negative, meaning shorts are paying longs. This structure either means shorts haven't given up yet, or spot is pulling the price up.
I lean toward the latter. The ETF outflow story has been talked about for over a month and is already priced in; using it as bearish news now will only make the market reaction more and more dull.
If it really wants to drop, it would need ETFs still flowing out and the price breaking down together—that would be a bad signal. With the current combination, I'm not short.
By the way, Coinbase's discount to Binance hit the largest of the year; such a spread is never without reason.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ Spot gold $XAU has returned above $3,900 per ounce today, but this does not change one fact: gold has just experienced a very weak October, with a monthly decline of about 6.8%. Some friends have asked why gold did not receive safe-haven inflows when tech stocks and other risk assets fell. Ajian emphasizes again that in the current high interest rate environment, any macro signals other than interest rates are just noise for gold. This is the view I have been stating since around $4,800: gold is strong, but don’t be stubborn. In the short-term market, no asset can keep rising forever. $FIL
Decentralized storage has an interesting problem: technical capability does not automatically translate into consistent commercial demand. Filecoin's broader proposition depends on attracting clients who genuinely need reliable distributed storage rather than temporary ecosystem incentives. Actual storage utilization, recurring customer activity, retrieval performance, and sustainable economics deserve more attention than headline network capacity alone.People tend to see stablecoins going on-chain as an ecological benefit, but I see it with some skepticism. On the flip side, deployment is just the starting point; payment demand is the real barrier.
Yuanbi Technology has partnered with HashKey On-Chain, and $RDUSD will be deployed on HSK Chain. Both parties will explore applications such as cross-border payments.
I judge that this is more significant for corporate payments than for short-term on-chain hype: banks and payment channels need to be connected; going on-chain cannot replace that. Fund management requires continuous usage; announcements alone won't generate demand. I will first look at actual usage and am not in a hurry to add value to the chain's valuation.#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
Apple's new CEO, Tim Cook, presents the first report card for iPhone 18: global growth is only 3.1%, relying entirely on China.
China saw a sharp increase of 28%-29% year-on-year, dominating the top five weekly sales; the US and Japan experienced declines year-on-year, with price hikes and weak upgrade appeal discouraging users. Goldman Sachs points out that revenue depends on "lower volume but higher prices" — shipments down 4%, average price up 20%, and Apple has shifted orders from Pro to Pro Max. The foldable Duo has a waiting period of about 100 days, with orders increased by 30%, marking the next observation window.
In short: China is paying, the world is watching; the first report card isn't bad but falls short of a strong start.
#苹果新CEO #iPhone18Calling it a meme coin with the name covered, I believe it; calling it an A-share, I’m really shocked.
Unitree 688836 dropped from 647 to 565 this morning, falling over 12% at one point.
Within two hours, it bounced back to 672.80, turning positive again, rebounding about 19% from the low, with morning trading volume around 3.61 billion yuan.
What I see: The Q3 net profit attributable to the parent company was 113 million yuan, roughly halved quarter-on-quarter.
It had risen more than 70% in the previous two weeks, so profit-taking was heavy; the report of cooperation between Meta and Fourier acted more like an emotional amplifier.
My view: This is a theme fade combined with earnings digestion, not a single-day negative shock.
The pre-noon rebound looks more like short covering and short-term speculation; the trend hasn’t stabilized yet.
What I’ll do: Observe without chasing or catching falling knives.
If it breaks below 565 effectively, the rebound narrative is invalidated; at least wait to stabilize above 647 before watching volume.
#宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ $UNITREE Bitcoin rebounded intraday to around $78,500, up about 0.7%, but the Fear and Greed Index is only 34, still deep in the fear zone. Moreover, the spot ETF saw a net outflow of $643 million in a single day, indicating the rebound lacks institutional capital support and appears more like a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. Crude oil plunged due to progress in US-Iran negotiations, with Brent falling 1.59% to $111.62 and WTI down 1.73% to $102.32. On the surface, this is a "peace pricing," but in essence, it is a passive unwinding of geopolitical risk premiums. The issue is that the US threat to resume strikes on Iran as early as after the November 4 midterm elections remains unresolved. Oil prices could pulse rebound at any time, reigniting inflation concerns and suppressing rate cut expectations. An asset barely supported by sentiment, combined with geopolitics optimistically priced in advance, means any negative news could trigger a sharper pullback than the current gains.$ETH So the POAP founder is actually the owner of the address that subscribed to 100,000 $ETH in the 2015 ICO? It all connects, everything connects 😝
Patricio Worthalter sold 2000 $ETH on-chain 10 hours ago, exchanging them for 4.53 million USDC at an average price of $2269. He then transferred the USDC to 0x95A…C2C7f, which was previously marked as the ancient ICO whale.#Meta credit outlook turns negative, AI investment credit risk draws attention
The leader has something to say
The issue of Meta's credit outlook turning negative has already been written about today, so no repetition.
There is a deeper data point in the comments section worth noting. AI infrastructure has spawned over $4 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments, with hidden leverage becoming a new credit risk. Moreover, it's not just Meta; Anthropic and OpenAI are facing financing difficulties, and AI credit pressure is spreading along the industry chain.
This indicates the problem is much more serious than simply being bearish on a single company. Rating agencies are starting to focus on these off-balance-sheet liabilities, meaning the entire AI industry chain's financing costs will be forced to rise. Giants have cash flow gaps, startups can't get funding—this is a chain of ticking bombs ready to explode at any time.
On the market today, META rose slightly by 0.27%, AVGO up 1.23%, just a weak rebound after overselling, not changing the long-term trend of rising credit risk. Funds are all on the sidelines.
Bitcoin fell below 77,000 last night, now slightly up 0.65% hovering nearby. Let's see if it can reclaim 80,000. If it can't hold, expect a deeper correction, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Don't chase the rise or kill the dip; set your stop losses well.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck to you. $BTC $ETH $SOL $SUI relies on the "foundation buyback" as a faith support every day, but the math is just too embarrassing.
This year, nearly 1 million tokens have been bought back in total, yet the unlocked amount in November alone reached over 10 million to 20 million tokens...
This is not a buyback to support the bottom; it's clearly like scooping water out of a leaking boat with a small spoon.
What's even more ridiculous is that different parties can't even agree on the exact unlocked sell pressure data, with discrepancies up to three times in the range. The coin price is still grinding; let's first get the unlocking numbers clear before anything else."Dage's Market Watch"
#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 Palantir is like that dazzling resume candidate in the dating market: Q3 revenue expected at $2.18 billion, up 84% year-over-year, full-year guidance at $8.15 billion, AIP selling like it's free, thriving in both government and commercial sectors. Just looking at the resume, everyone would say "such great qualifications."
But when you meet, the problem arises—the asking price is a 97x forward P/E, over 70x price-to-sales, and free cash flow yield under 1%. Translated into dating terms: the person is indeed excellent, but the bride price demands your next ten years' salary, with guaranteed annual raises, no illness, and no quitting.
So tonight's earnings report, I'm not worried about whether they "do well," I'm worried about "do they do well enough." The market expectation is already pulled up to $2.18 billion, but the company itself only set a $2.16 billion line. If they just meet the line, sorry, that 97x price tag will have to be cut on the spot; if they beat expectations and raise the full-year guidance, then this match can continue.
The disagreement is also quite amusing. On one side, some shout $80, meaning "even with such conditions, I can't afford to marry." On the other side, the median is $223, thinking "gritting teeth, I can still get on board." I'm in the middle watching the show, feeling very calm: I trust the company, but I'm timid about the price. A good girl, but the bride price is too high; I'll just pull up a stool at the door and wait for the mother-in-law to loosen up. I won't chase if it soars, but if it drops to a decent correction, I'll take another look—poor, accepted.To start with a cold splash of water, I’m more worried that the phrase "market recovery" might cause people to underestimate the divergence and rush to conclude that the market is strengthening. According to the SoSoValue data cited in this information, the CeFi sector rose 1.34% in 24 hours, AI fell 1.61%; $BTC rose 1.04%, returning above $78,000. My judgment is: this looks more like a partial repair, not evidence of a full recovery.
I’m mainly stuck on two points. First, the coverage of the rise is insufficient: Layer1 only rose 0.35%, PayFi only 0.05%, DeFi and Layer2 are still falling; a market uptrend doesn’t mean most sectors can hold on. Second, the performance of individual coins can easily mask the sector’s true state: TRUMP rose 10.16% intraday, while the Meme sector fell 0.25%. Intraday and 24-hour data are not the same metric, and you can’t use one standout number to endorse the entire sector. This kind of misreading is especially easy for those watching the gainers list.
Of course, the bulls might be right. If the subsequent rise spreads to more sectors and the weak sectors continue to recover, I will retract my bearish view; these are my observation conditions, not progress that has already happened. I don’t expect all sectors to rise together, but I need to see a relay. Based on this data, are you bullish or bearish? Do you trust more in BTC’s leading role in the rebound, or worry that sectors won’t keep up? Share your reasons.People watching the market tonight might have missed a detail: the earnings report of a US-listed company can now be traded on-chain the night before.
MSX is scheduled to launch the TOST US stock token spot on November 2, while Toast's Q3 earnings report will only be released after the US market closes on November 3. The token launches first, the earnings report comes later, with a full trading day in between. This sequence is worth pondering.
First, let's look at the company itself. Q2 2026 revenue was $1.908 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase; ARR was $2.4 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase. Both growth rates are above 20%, and the difference between revenue and ARR growth is only 2 percentage points, indicating that the new volume mainly comes from sustainable subscription revenue, not one-time projects.
Next, consider the mechanism. What tokenization of US stocks truly changes is not whether you can buy US stocks, but the trading hours. Earnings reports are released after market close, and traditional brokers have to wait until the next trading day opens to react; the token market operates 24/7, so pricing can happen the moment the news breaks. The mismatch between TOST's launch time and the earnings report timing clearly highlights this difference.
My judgment: the short-term highlight of such products lies not in liquidity but in pricing efficiency. Whoever has a longer trading window digests information first.
One point to consider: when earnings reports can be traded immediately after market close, how much room is left for strategies that rely on opening gaps?I feel that there is still quite a bit of capital on the sidelines in the market, not truly leaving the crypto market.
BTC's performance during this period has surprised me a bit. Despite the Binance hack incident and a series of negative news, the price did not experience the expected sharp decline. Instead, altcoins like $LIT, $PUMP, $ZRO, and NEAR have started to show some strength.
Concerns about the AI bubble have been suppressing the crypto market for several months. During this time, AI stocks have been rising steadily, while the crypto market has been sideways for a long time. I believe some of the pessimistic expectations have already been priced in.
If the hype around AI stocks cools down later, and the crypto market can still maintain strength, then the funds originally chasing AI assets might well turn their attention back to Crypto.
What I am more focused on is the market environment after the midterm elections. If uncertainty gradually fades, off-market funds might look for opportunities again.
The market doesn't need all news to turn positive; what really matters is that despite continuous negative news, prices never fall. When bad news becomes increasingly unable to push the market down, I am actually willing to remain somewhat optimistic about the future trend.#circl Is Monday's arrival a reversal or a rebound? Kanye's associated address suspected of repeatedly going long on $ETH increased position by $4.7 million👀
After the Binance hack news was disclosed on 10.30, this address sold 1390 $ETH on-chain to reduce liquidation risk. Today, after a large batch of withdrawals were opened, it also withdrew 2074 ETH from #Binance. It is not yet clear whether this is an increase in position or simply a token withdrawal.
Currently, it has collateralized 21,109 ETH and borrowed $27.71 million in stablecoins, with health factors of 1.44 and 1.62 respectively; portal 👉 0xdeA611a2f605FE63962E0151e724E9ce4C8a1d5cDon't deceive yourself, this Nonfarm Payrolls report will shatter many bulls' illusions about Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The market has already priced in a 70% chance of a December rate hike. Bitcoin's slight recovery now is bulls betting in advance on weaker employment. But the fuller the expectations, the greater the damage when things go wrong. If the Nonfarm data is strong and rate hike expectations heat up again, Bitcoin will quickly give back its gains, and Ethereum's fate will be even worse.
Ethereum's chart is loaded with dense leveraged contracts. As soon as the dollar and US Treasury yields jump, a liquidation wave will come, often causing Ethereum to fall much more than Bitcoin. Even if the data weakens, it doesn't mean a trend reversal—at best, it's a brief rally designed to trap those chasing highs.
Don't think you can make a sure profit by betting on the data. Bitcoin loves to spike both ways around data releases, harvesting both longs and shorts. Many are already fully invested, waiting for a takeoff, which is precisely the most dangerous signal.
If you don't have enough margin for error, don't bet hard at this point. Nonfarm Payrolls isn't a giveaway; it's a battlefield that devours blind gamblers.
$BTC $ETH #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ Withdrawals have opened, the market is rebounding, but $SOL is still consolidating around 95: OKX about 95.6 (24h almost flat), 48h high/low about 96.4/93.1; BTC about +1.1%, fear and greed index about 37. I lean towards seeing this as a box pattern digesting selling pressure, rather than a failed rally. On DefiLlama, Solana DEX is about $830 million (−13%), TVL about $5.5 billion; SOL ETF still shows 10/30 −10.8 million, no new moves Monday morning. Update #4 phase including SOL, about $3.6 billion outflow narrative is digesting, PoR estimated 11/3; tomorrow is the eve of the midterm elections, volatility may increase. Will you open $SOL to check the market, or wait and see? Let's have a real talk.
Just personal observation, not investment advice.
$SOL $BTC #BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 [The panic index has risen to 37 in two days, is the market really starting to recover?]
This round of panic sentiment has not truly eased yet. The Fear and Greed Index rebounded from 30 to 37, rising for two consecutive days, but it is still some distance from the neutral range. On October 22, the index was at 68, and in just a few days, it plunged into the panic zone, indicating that the market sentiment experienced a rapid cooldown rather than ordinary daily fluctuations.
After the Binance security incident on October 30, $BTC once dropped to $77,646, and $ETH also hit a two-month low. The crypto market saw about $1.57 billion liquidated within 24 hours, with longs being the main victims. The panic index stayed at 30 for two consecutive days, which exactly reflects the impact of this deleveraging on market confidence.
Now the index has returned to 37, and BTC is back near $78,000, indicating that the most panicked phase has eased, but it is still too early to say that funds are actively re-entering. My judgment is that short-term sentiment is recovering, but the overall market remains cautious. A score of 37 is not a bottom-fishing signal; what is truly worth looking forward to is the index rising back above 45, BTC holding key support, and spot buying catching up. Sentiment can rebound first, but whether funds are willing to return is the key to whether the market can stabilize.$BTC Market Brief Analysis (2026-11-02)
BTC is around $77,800–78,000, up slightly about 0.4% in 24 hours, but still down 3.4% for the week.
Technical aspect: 76,000–77,000 is the core bottoming support; breaking below this looks toward 74,000–74,900. On the upside, 78,000 is the first level to reclaim, and only a firm hold above 78,600 counts as short-term structural improvement. Selling pressure is heavy above 80,000.
Capital flow: Last Friday, ETFs saw a net outflow of $643 million, with about $859 million outflow accumulated over the past 6 trading days. However, whale on-chain holdings increased to about 3.03 million coins, marking the fastest accumulation since February this year. ETFs are selling while whales are buying, showing a real opposing direction. Derivatives exposure is rising while spot ETFs are flowing out; the sustainability of the rebound depends on whether spot buying can follow through.
Key variables today: Post-Binance hack, ETF outflow pressure remains. The midterm elections on 11/3 and the nonfarm payrolls on 11/6 present dual tests, with short-term liquidity thin.
In short: Bottoming above 76K, 78K is the short-term dividing line. Before the nonfarm data release, the range is likely to continue oscillating between 76K and 78K, with direction needing volume confirmation.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
This does not constitute investment advice; the crypto market is highly volatile. Did you understand this move by $UNITREE?
This morning, $UNITREE dropped directly from around 98 to 86. Everyone thought $UNITREE was starting to decline, but unexpectedly, it suddenly rebounded back above 95.
Actually, Beichen tends to see this move as a shakeout of short positions. The earlier drop caused shorts to keep entering, then the price suddenly reversed upward, triggering stop losses and forced liquidations of shorts, which further pushed the price up at the open.
It's still not time to catch the top. Beichen's personal view is to short around the resistance at 100-102 for a more conservative approach!
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ Under the surgical light, the greatest fear after cardiac arrest is not the incision, but the silent ischemia of the myocardium; the market is the same. A price crash is just an alarm on the monitor, the real investigation is where the perfusion has been interrupted. IREN has shifted from Bitcoin mining to intelligent computing power cloud services. This is not a simple valve replacement, but a cardiac revascularization surgery: the old myocardium still bears a high energy load, while the new perfusion must rely on GPU clusters and data center delivery to establish collateral circulation. The Q1 results on November 5 are like intraoperative frozen pathology; the key is not whether the narrative is appealing, but whether the anastomosis is unobstructed. Computing capacity delivery is the anastomosis, cloud revenue growth indicates whether the myocardium survives after revascularization, and capital expenditure is the extracorporeal circulation time; the longer the extracorporeal circulation, the more likely inflammation storms, capillary leakage, and volume load imbalance will occur. Delays in data center delivery equal thrombosis at the anastomosis; deploying GPU clusters but failing to convert them into billable revenue equals transplanted vessels with anatomical blood flow but no functional perfusion. Linked targets are only peripheral perfusion indicators and cannot replace central venous pressure and cardiac output. The real focus should be on delivered capacity, contract revenue, depreciation formation, and cash flow perfusion pressure. The old mining cycle still carries a load, the new cloud cycle is not yet fully offline; during this dual-cycle parallel period, the greatest fear is an imbalance between oxygen supply and metabolic demand, causing myocardial stunning. If capital expenditure leads and revenue ramp lags, the balance sheet will be slowly drained like postoperative effusion. If on November 5 there is no perfusion curve showing billable capacity and revenue ramp, this transformation is not revascularization but silent ischemia of the myocardium under the surgical light. #irenq1aiclouddelivery