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SPCX last night that short position was realized, gained an extra 1.2. Last night wrote "Break 137.88 then pull back to short, first target 136.0", at 03:00 a volume of 108,281 contracts slammed down to 134.81, target exceeded by 1.2, closed at 135.0. All resistance above is useless: at 22:00 and 23:00 two volumes of 167,000 contracts pushed up to 140.5, then all given back at once — supply from piled-up money. Now it’s not a direction issue but lack of participants: from 04:00 volume collapsed to a few thousand contracts, at 20:00 only 628 left, sixteen 1H bars total less than 75,000 contracts, about 70% of the 03:00 volume, price stuck grinding between 137.0~137.4 for twelve hours. Current price 137.3, -0.67%, MA20 136.7. US stock market opens at 21:30, so this price doesn’t count: Close with volume above 137.40 (≥80,000) → pull back to 137.0~137.2 to go long, stop loss 136.5, targets 138.5/140.5, risk-reward 2.3/5.7. Close with volume below 136.70 (≥80,000) → pull back to 136.9~137.1 to short, stop loss 137.6, targets 135.3/134.81, risk-reward 2.8/3.7. $SPCX (Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)#Federal Reserve officials signal rate hikes, December expectations still divided More hawkish signals again, Fed officials just shout to scare people, brothers don't panic! St. Louis Fed's Mouselim directly said that to curb inflation, policy tightening will have to continue soon; Dallas Fed's Logan is even more aggressive, thinking at least two more 25 basis point hikes are needed. The September core PCE year-on-year has already reached 3.1%, still clearly far from the 2% target, inflation stickiness is evident. But the market wasn't scared into a crash. The pricing for December rate hikes has fallen from 85% to 70%-80%, indicating everyone understands: it's very likely there will be one more hike this year, not a series of sharp increases. The economy itself is still strongly expanding, employment is relatively balanced, and officials emphasize "small steps" to avoid hitting growth too hard at once. So my stance is very clear: One more hike this year is very likely, but there's no need to worry excessively now. The rate hike path has been partially priced in by the market, and gradual tightening impacts ordinary people far less than a sudden shift. What really needs attention is the October nonfarm payrolls on November 6; if the data is good, continue on this pace, if the data weakens significantly, expectations may be adjusted again. In terms of action: Don't be led by short-term hawkish rhetoric. Those with positions should continue with their own plans, don't chase highs or panic sell; those without positions wanting to enter can wait for the nonfarm data before deciding. Interest rates are just one variable; focusing on controllable cash flow and risk is much more useful than watching Fed meetings every day. $BTC $ETH UNI at $6.9, what are you still waiting for? The monthly chart dropped 22%, hackers dumped 7 million tokens crashing the price, Illinois plans to tax — but just as everyone is calling Uniswap an "outdated old DeFi," daily active addresses hit a new high since 2020, Standard Chartered sets a $100 target for 2030, and the v4 upgrade turns fees directly into UNI burn. Is this the last chance to escape, or the eve of the old DeFi king reclaiming dominance? First, the surface: down 23%, the whole network is complaining. UNI has been hammered from $10-11 in September down to $6.9, a 23% monthly drop, daily price oscillating narrowly between $6.8-$7.3, volume shrinking, and social media filled with voices like "Uniswap is done" and "DEX has no future." But look closely at the data: daily active addresses at 14,600, new addresses breaking 13,000 in a single day, the highest since 2020. Price is falling, but users are exploding — what is this? Price down, volume up, a classic bottom signal. First point: hackers dumped 7 million tokens, but UNI didn’t crash. Recently, there was a large UNI sell-off related to Binance outflows and hacker disposals, about 7 million tokens, nearly $50 million at $6.9. Sounds scary? But look at the market — UNI didn’t break below $6.6, instead bounced from $6.79 back to $6.9. Same selling pressure: first dump 5%, second 2%, third time the market just lay flat. What does "bad news fully priced in" mean? This is it. Hackers want to run, exchanges want to clear out, these chips must be sold off. Once cleared, no more knives over your head. Cutting losses here means handing bloodied chips to bargain hunters. Second point: after v4 upgrade, UNI is no longer just a "governance token." Before, buying UNI was basically buying a voting right; fees had nothing to do with you. This is why UNI was called "the most useless DeFi token." Now it’s different. v4 Aggregator Hooks launched, connecting external liquidity, covering over 90% of DEX activity on Ethereum, Base, and Robinhood Chain. Protocol fees start generating, part directly used to buy back and burn UNI. September protocol revenue already in the millions to tens of millions of dollars range. In plain terms: every Uniswap trade matches, a portion of money is used to burn UNI. Every UNI you hold is automatically deflating by code. Also, Unichain is expanding, TVL on Base steadily growing, Robinhood Chain becoming a new growth point. Uniswap is evolving from "one app" to "multi-chain liquidity infrastructure." This narrative is on a completely different level from 2020 when UNI was first issued — back then it was air governance, now it’s real cash flow capture. Third point: Standard Chartered’s $100 target is not just talk. Standard Chartered reiterates a 2030 UNI target of $100, with two core logics: Binance-related events accelerate capital migration to DEX — CEX trust crisis, money flows on-chain, Uniswap is the biggest beneficiary. Protocol fee capture + burn mechanism improves tokenomics — UNI transforms from "useless governance token" to "cash-flow generating deflationary asset." Do the math: now $6.9, $100 is 14x. Is Standard Chartered crazy? But when UNI rose from $1 to $45 in 2020, no one believed it either. You can doubt institutional price targets, but you must see if the underlying logic holds. Fee burn + multi-chain expansion + CEX capital outflow — each logic is being realized. Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself On the bullish side: v4 Hooks launched, protocol fees start buyback and burn of UNI Daily active addresses hit highest since 2020, user growth exploding Standard Chartered calls for $100 by 2030, CEX capital migrating to DEX TVL $3.6 billion, multi-chain expansion on Ethereum + Base + Robinhood Chain Strong support at $6.6-$6.8, multiple tests without break On the bearish side: Monthly drop 23%, daily trend weak, MACD bearish 7 million UNI sell pressure related to hackers/Binance Illinois tax proposal, DeFi compliance uncertainty Macro pressure, BTC hovering at $77,000, altcoin liquidity poor Heavy supply above $7.2-$7.3, rebounds repeatedly suppressed Key levels Resistance above: $7.2-$7.3 (short-term moving averages + recent highs) → $7.5-$7.9 (200-day MA) → $8.0+ Support below: $6.8-$6.9 (psychological + recent lows) → $6.6-$6.7 (strong demand zone) → $6.25 (extreme case) Trading strategy Short-term traders: Lightly buy in batches at $6.80-$6.90, stop loss at $6.55-$6.60 (exit if broken), first target $7.20-$7.30 for half exit, second target $7.50-$7.80. For shorts, wait for rebound resistance at $7.25-$7.40 then lightly try, stop loss above $7.55. Swing traders: Wait for volume breakout and hold above $7.30 before entering, target $8.0+. If it breaks below $6.6, don’t rush to catch the bottom, wait near $6.25. Key is BTC — if BTC is stable, UNI has a chance; if BTC crashes, UNI runs first. Long-term believers: Buy and hold below $6.8 with eyes closed. UNI fell from $10-11 to $6.9, down 35%, but protocol revenue, user count, multi-chain deployment all rising. Fee burn mechanism just activated, the real deflationary flywheel hasn’t started turning. 2027-2030 target $20-$50, betting on the big trend of DEX replacing CEX. Standard Chartered’s $100 call can be discounted, but the direction is right. UNI now is like Uniswap in 2020 — When first issued, everyone mocked "what use is a governance token," but it went from $1 to $45. $BTC $ETH $UNI Is it the story of "Marking the Boat to Seek the Sword"? $BTC $QQQ What I'm focusing on isn't the transfer amount, but the words "short-term holders." CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that within 24 hours, short-term holders transferred over 36,600 $BTC at a loss to exchanges, reflecting that this group is under pressure.👀 This is somewhat interesting, but I prefer to treat it as a stress test of sentiment in small-cap coins rather than a direct verdict of a price drop. Transferring to exchanges doesn't mean they've sold yet; based on this number alone, we can't judge whether the market can absorb the potential selling pressure. I'm cautious for two reasons: if this batch of coins further turns into selling pressure, risk-off sentiment might reduce everyone's willingness to participate in high-volatility assets; if market attention shifts to defense, even if there is news in small sectors, it may not attract sustained capital. Conversely, if the potential selling pressure is absorbed, sentiment recovery could bring opportunities to high-volatility assets. These are my inferences, not outcomes that have already occurred. My observation sequence is to watch if transfers continue, then see if prices hold, and whether small-cap coins follow with amplified volatility. Rather than rushing to find resilience, I want to first distinguish whether this is localized pressure or a contraction in risk appetite. Given this kind of signal, which sector that everyone has been watching recently can best test market sentiment, and why?No matter how much excitement surrounds $UNITREE , I seriously doubt it will ever reach 1,000 yuan (approximately $150). A huge number of investors previously got trapped at that price level, and if the stock rallies back there, many will rush to sell and exit. At this point, both bulls and bears are frustrated. Bulls fear a sudden limit-down move, while bears continue bleeding money through extremely high funding fees. Neither side seems comfortable holding their position. $UNITREE Amazon's earnings report was met with a cold shoulder from the market after just a glance at the numbers; even a 39% increase in AWS couldn't save it. Q3 after-hours Thursday: Revenue was $201.94 billion, up 12% year-over-year, slightly below the expected approximately $202.2 billion. Earnings per share were $1.89, also below the expected approximately $1.97. The numbers aren't actually bad: Operating profit was $28.1 billion, up 61% year-over-year, with a record-high profit margin of 13.9%. AWS sales reached $46 billion, up 39% year-over-year, the fastest growth in five years. The problem lies in spending: Equipment purchases for the quarter were $77.3 billion, compared to only $35.1 billion in the same period last year. Free cash flow over the past 12 months was negative $42.4 billion, whereas a year ago it was positive $14.8 billion, with no cuts to the full-year $220 billion expenditure. Honestly, this isn't a bad earnings report; the market just cares about cash now, and AI spending is outpacing profits. On the same day, the Nasdaq dropped 2.86% to a three-month low, Intel plummeted 28.6%, driven by the narrative of AI burning cash. I'm holding, waiting to recover above $243.79 (Thursday's close); if it falls below $229.36 (Friday's low), that judgment fails. On Friday, it once dropped over 7% intraday but closed down only 1.41% at $240.35; some bought in, but it's not a bottom. When spending can buy growth, no one asks about the price; now that they do, earnings reports must answer with cash flow. $AMZN $NVDA $INTC #英特尔Q4指引不及预期，股价暴跌近30% $AKE This sharp drop in AKE was not a surprise at all. On-chain data had already revealed the truth: market makers transferred over $2.2 million worth of chips to Binance Alpha to dump, directly triggering a 33% flash crash. Even more frightening, market makers still hold $800 million on-chain, accounting for 54% of the circulating supply, so the selling pressure is far from over. Many retail investors tried to bottom-fish after the drop, only to get trapped. I never try to guess the bottom; I only act after confirming on the right side. When it showed a weak rebound and broke below a key support level, I decisively entered a short position at 0.01379. Using 20x leverage, I captured a +308% profit from this move. Facing a target with clear signs of unloading, going short with the trend is the only correct choice.$AKE, 20x short position, entry at 0.02077, target at 0.01155, profit +887.81%. The shape of the zigzag line on the chart is worth mentioning: it is a smooth one-way downward trend with no decent consolidation in between. This kind of movement looks the best but is also the most dangerous—because it accumulates the "pullback" energy for later. Normally, after a drop without a rebound, the market tends to have a corrective rebound, and that rebound is usually strong. Looking at the trend: now at 0.01155, it has dropped 44% from the cost of 0.02077, the absolute downward space is narrowing, upward corrective momentum is accumulating, and the risk-reward is starting to become asymmetric—unfavorable for short positions. Specific numbers: from 0.01155, a 10% rise to 0.01271 reduces unrealized profit from 888 to 637, a loss of 251 points; a 20% rise to 0.01386 leaves about 665... no, recalculating: a 20% rise to 0.01386 yields about 665. Conversely, a 10% drop to 0.0104 increases unrealized profit from 888 to 998, an increase of only 110 points. In other words, for the same 10% fluctuation, going up loses 251 points, going down gains only 110 points—this asymmetry is very telling. So I won’t keep too much position here, taking the bulk off first and leaving a small portion to follow. $BTC $ETH #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 I always thought that once stablecoins are frozen, that's it—the money is locked inside. Actually, that's not the case. Some people deposit stablecoins into lending protocols and receive a deposit certificate in return. They transfer this certificate to a new wallet, and the new wallet redeems it to get the money out. The issuer freezes the address, but can't freeze this certificate. That's how 500,000 USD moved. Circle and Tether froze about 2.8 billion; the number sounds solid, but the part they missed exploited the loophole that "certificates can be transferred." In short, freezing controls accounts, not assets. $TRX $ETHCFX, KAIA, and SYRUP's unlimited issuance is a continuous burden, with tokens constantly increasing, and long-term selling pressure will lower the value baseline. Celo, RVN, and DOT have capped total supply, which slowly accumulates potential energy; the incremental supply continues to converge, and scarcity consensus will gradually support the market.$SOL spot has broken below the $100 mark, yet the bulls are still holding on stubbornly. The amount of borrowed coins for long positions is tens of times that of shorts, all "adding more as it falls". The load is really too heavy. With such a top-heavy leverage structure, unless the main force pushes it down to $85 to flush out this group, the market won't be properly cleaned up. #SOL $SOL 👇Stablecoins can be frozen, which is why many people dare to hold $USDT overnight. Now there is a method that specifically bypasses this checkpoint. The attacker first exchanges TRX for stablecoins on Tron, deposits them into a DeFi lending protocol, and receives a deposit certificate in return. The key is the next step: the certificate is transferred to another new wallet, which redeems the stablecoins and then uses a cross-chain bridge to convert them into $ETH and exit. At no point is the frozen address touched. What is split into two parts are: the claim represented by the certificate, and the freeze control imposed on the underlying stablecoins. The issuer freezes the address, so the balance cannot be moved; however, the certificate is a transferable debt claim—whoever holds it redeems it. Control remains with the old address, but the claim has already left with the certificate. According to monitoring, the North Korean TraderTraitor group has used this method to transfer over $500,000. On the other side, Circle and Tether have assisted in freezing about $2.8 billion—this large figure shows that freezing is indeed effective, but also that it has limits. For holders, the significance is not the $500,000, but how much trust the words "frozen" carry. Compliance focuses its efforts on blacklisting addresses, but DeFi’s transferable certificates wrap assets in another layer. When the shell is changed, the freeze remains in place. Since certificates can be transferred, shouldn’t the blacklist extend from addresses to issuers? Currently, no one manages this layer for such protocols on $TRX.#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 Every time the market crashes, Apple manages to hedge risk#卡塔尔斡旋美伊谈判，油价仍受冲突风险支撑 Qatar, as a neutral country in the Middle East, is leading mediation efforts, bringing market expectations of a temporary easing. Oil prices have seen a short-term pullback, but it is difficult for them to enter a sustained downtrend. The core reason is that this negotiation only cools the crisis rather than achieving a long-term reconciliation. The core differences between the US and Iran remain huge, with no substantial breakthroughs on key issues such as the nuclear problem, regional proxy conflicts, and sanctions relief. Both sides are only temporarily managing conflict red lines. The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of the world's seaborne crude oil. If the route is blocked, supply shocks will quickly push oil prices up, and the market continues to factor in geopolitical risk premiums. On the supply side, OPEC+ production cuts provide a floor to oil prices; meanwhile, expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and a stronger dollar suppress the upside for oil prices, intensifying the tug of war between bulls and bears. Going forward, two points are key to monitor: first, whether the Doha negotiations yield agreements on navigation and ceasefire; second, whether there are further attacks on ships or military skirmishes around the strait. In the short term, oil prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels. Easing news tends to be quickly priced in, but if tensions flare up again, oil prices will be highly volatile. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Sideways movement is not accumulation, it's that no one is willing to make the first move $SNDK has been grinding back and forth within a narrow range these days. Short-term traders are watching it, waiting for a gap-up bullish candle. First, what others think: after a long sideways period, a big move is bound to happen. The quieter the market, the more it looks like it's building up for a wave. Now, what I think: sideways movement just means neither buyers nor sellers are willing to act first. As volume shrinks, the price naturally gets pressed down in place. To jump up, someone needs to buy with real money. If no one buys, no matter how long it stays sideways, it’s just sideways. Wait for it to break out of the range on its own, then decide whether to follow or not. #闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13% #$SNDK So when will things improve? 1. U.S. Treasury yields stop rising, and the Federal Reserve steps in to support the market, such as restarting bond purchases. ​ 2. The U.S. economy can't withstand high interest rates, the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates, and capital will flow out of cash to embrace gold and risk assets again. This process could be very long. Those waiting are the retail investors trapped now and the highly leveraged forced sellers. The narrative and fundamentals for this year have basically ended. The trapped funds can only wait for random events to hope for a turnaround, such as U.S.-Iran tensions, the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, or even AI super-evolution...Recently, the stock market, bonds, gold, and silver have all been falling, and even the previously considered most stable US Treasury bonds can't hold up. This kind of global crash gives a sense of a financial crisis. People are frantically shouting to buy the dip in the square, but is this really the bottom now? Why is this happening? There are three main reasons: 1. Many institutions have taken on high leverage. When companies like Google and Intel fall, they have to make margin calls and can only quickly sell assets that can be liquidated. Assets with good liquidity like gold and US Treasuries are sold first, causing a chain reaction. ​ 2. US inflation has not come down. The probability of a rate hike in December is over 80%. Buying US Treasuries not only fails to make money but may also lose principal due to rising interest rates. Funds originally invested in bonds have turned back into cash. ​ 3. The Federal Reserve now keeps interest rates around 4%, allowing cash to earn a stable 4%-5% risk-free return in a year, so other assets are being ignored. Actually, Wall Street is not unwilling to enter the market; they are waiting for the market to bottom out, for retail and institutional investors to panic sell, and then buy the dip to pick up cheap chips.It's almost mealtime, brothers, what tasty food are you planning to have tonight? Look at these altcoin data, Bitcoin is sideways, and the leverage under these popular coins is about to explode! The big players are preparing to launch a sneak attack while everyone is eating. First, look at $XRP, current price 1.247. Don't be fooled by its recent grinding trend; the 4-hour long-short ratio stubbornly reached 3.72, open interest keeps surging, retail investors are bottom-fishing. With such strong long leverage, the big players can't push it down with a big bearish candle to wash them out, so it can't really move. Next, look at $DOGE, current price 0.075. This one is even crazier, the long-short ratio shot up to 4.9. The shorts don't dare show their heads now; it's all stubborn bulls hyping themselves up. With such an extreme one-sided situation, any slight disturbance could trigger a chain stampede. Finally, look at $PEPE, current price 0.00000499. The long-short ratio at 1.94 looks okay, but pay attention to the funding rate—it instantly dropped to negative 0.15%, indicating the long-short battle has become fierce. Bulls are holding on desperately, while whales are aggressively opening short hedges. The price spikes up and down here can make people dizzy. In summary, weekend liquidity is already poor, and mealtime is the favorite sneak attack window for big players. These coins are all crowded long zones. Control your hands; don't become the big players' appetizer by mistake. What good food are you having tonight to recharge? Do you have positions in these three popular coins? Are you holding on or preparing to run?醒来第一眼看到$BTC跌破80,000，我竟庆幸自己没开真仓。可翻到积分记录那一刻，脸像被自己扇肿了😤 这种反差，是新手最典型的一课。 10月27日，$SNDK只赚1.4%，我跑得比兔子还快，落袋两百多XP便沾沾自喜；10月28日深夜，却把全部本金50倍押在SpaceX（SPCX）上。随后两天市场连续放量抛售，美股代币在开盘前流动性枯竭，我硬扛两天，今早7点，139.64被系统无情强平，-1199 XP直接归零。 硬核拆解：为什么小赚就跑、大亏死扛？全仓加最高杠杆，最怕的就是“假死锁仓”。宏观趋势向下、代币流动性干涸，又不设止损，硬扛只会被做市商扫干净。这轮是花血本买来的教训。 真正的信号不在亏损本身，而在结构：当美股的代币化标的在非交易时段失去深度，高杠杆仓位等于把强平价交给最薄弱的时刻。$SNDK的快速止盈与SPCX的死扛，本质是同一枚硬币——缺乏规则。$BTC、$ETH的宏观下行只是背景，流动性与杠杆纪律才是决定生死的变量。可复述的一句：小赚就跑不是谨慎，是没规则；大亏死扛不是信念，是没止损。 #OKXTraderVoices Tonight's trending topic is $LSK. As of 20:03 Beijing time on October 31, LSK on OKX is quoted at 0.275 USDT, up about 34% in 24 hours, ranging from 0.199 to 0.295; CoinGecko shows a 24-hour total network trading volume of approximately 115 million USD, also trending on the hot search list. The news is very focused: today is the day the Lisk chain is shutting down. After the DAO proposal passed, 100 million LSK tokens were destroyed at once, accounting for one quarter of the total supply, reducing total supply from 400 million to 300 million; afterwards, LSK remains on Ethereum, transforming into Lisk's loyalty token, with no token swap or new contract. My view: The burn is a real supply contraction, but it is a one-time event, and the official statement says no further burns are planned. The chain is shut down, staking is gone, and the token's value going forward will rely on new product merchant reward scenarios, for which data is not yet visible. The trading volume far exceeds usual levels, with strong short-term sentiment. For this "event realization" market on the shutdown day, I pay more attention to the follow-up support after the event rather than chasing the current bullish candle. $LSK 2️⃣ Don't just look for coins that are on sale You need to find a reason why that coin could outperform other Here's what you need to do: 🔘 Start classifying assets based on their potential recovery drivers 🔘 Check if there are any catalysts that could trigger new demand 🔘 See if the narrative surrounding the coin is actually benefiting from this situation, or if it's just being dragged down by the liquidation market #Strategi Pratinjau Laporan Keuangan: Keuntungan Buku BTC Melonjak Tajam Binance has replenished 80% of the stolen funds, and the withdrawal resumption has also been scheduled. The announcement shows that approximately 80% of the $6.3 billion assets stolen in the TraderTraitor (linked to North Korea) attack have been replenished, and phased withdrawal resumption is planned within about 34 hours. The security incident itself is bearish, but the official rapid completion of a large-scale replenishment and the clear withdrawal timetable are positive repair signals, which can temporarily ease users' concerns about a bank run and asset reserves. The key points to watch are: whether the remaining approximately 20% gap can be filled before withdrawal resumption, which directly determines whether the bank run risk is truly eliminated; the replenishment is mostly done through OTC coin purchases, which will bring phased buying pressure to related tokens but also consume exchange reserves. For Binance users, there is no need for panic actions before withdrawal resumes; after resumption, focus on whether concentrated withdrawals occur. On the same day, Japan's Iole plans to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings, a neutral to bearish supply signal at the institutional level but limited in scale; the SK Group chairman met with the OpenAI CEO to discuss HBM supply and infrastructure cooperation, an industry narrative with no direct catalyst for the coin price. Source: PANews Are you more concerned about whether the remaining 20% gap can be filled, or whether concentrated withdrawals will occur after withdrawal resumes? PAXG, ATOM, and ETH perpetual issuance continuously dilute the denominator, with the circulating supply increasing, causing the coin price to quietly decline over a long period. RVN, Celo, and Ronin have a hard cap on total supply, which gradually builds confidence; with decreasing increments, scarcity will slowly drive the price up over time.$TRUMP TRUMP has dropped to around 1.7, yet the team stubbornly holds onto 80% of the tokens and keeps moving them to exchanges every day. Insiders have siphoned off nearly 1 billion through unlocking and fees, while retail investors have painfully absorbed a 3.8 billion loss. Once the hype dies down, there isn’t even a decent buy order. Next month, nearly 29 million internal tokens are set to unlock, basically a blatant distribution. #TRUMP $TRUMP 👇TRX is showing massive network strength with 16 billion transactions! After a sharp spike to $TRX 0.37, the current pullback to 0.322 is just a healthy reset. Watch for a solid bounce off the 0.320 support zone. If bulls step in here, we could see a rapid 10-15% recovery toward the recent highs. The Layer 1 narrative remains hot. Question: Will TRX hold the 0.32 support to trigger the next breakout?BTC暴跌，黄金也跌，传统避险资产为什么没有接住资金？ 一、新闻。BTC报76,885.6美元，24小时跌5.98%；COMEX黄金报4,007.6美元，单日跌1.09%，现货黄金约4,005.1美元。美元指数跌0.30%至101.74，标普500跌0.30%，恐惧贪婪指数从51降到30。多家外媒同时报道币安约53亿美元异常转出，市场进入跨资产降风险状态。 二、资金影响。黄金与BTC同跌，说明资金并非简单从BTC轮动到黄金；美元也没有走强，因此也不是典型的美元避险交易。更像部分基金和杠杆账户在补保证金，先卖出最容易变现的资产。反常的是，BTC ETF仍净流入1.528亿美元，5日净流入2.583亿美元，配置盘没有跟随交易盘撤退。 三、BTC含义。在急性流动性冲击里，BTC仍表现出高贝塔风险资产特征，不能把“数字黄金”叙事当成短线保护。但ETF持续流入说明中期资金逻辑尚未瓦解。判断这次是短促去杠杆还是趋势转折，关键要看事件澄清后，BTC和黄金能否分别恢复各自的定价逻辑。 四、观察指标。我接下来盯四个指标：一是黄金能否重新站上4,050；二是美元指数是否守住101附近；三是BTC ETF净【Weekend Thoughts】Gold and silver plunge, is the opportunity really here? Gold has fallen from its high at the beginning of the year, with a maximum drop close to 30%. Both the duration and magnitude of the correction are approaching historically typical large-scale retracements. The core reasons for this round of decline remain threefold: liquidity tightening, high interest rates, and a strong dollar. But cheap prices do not mean a bull market will start immediately. Historical experience shows that gold rebounds may only take a few months, while breaking through previous highs again could take a year or even longer. Compared to gold, I pay more attention to silver. Currently, speculative short positions in silver are at extreme levels. Once the macro environment improves, concentrated short covering could trigger a strong rebound. From November to December, if the U.S. Treasury releases liquidity, it could also become a potential catalyst, though uncertainty remains. My order of focus: gold and silver mining stocks ＞ silver ＞ gold. One last reminder: a rebound does not equal a reversal, and a trading opportunity does not equal a long-term bull market. Don’t turn short-term trades into long-term holds, and don’t treat being trapped as faith. #Gold #Silver #FederalReserve #InvestmentStrategy $XAU Frankly, the reaction of $BTC this time really caught me by surprise. Just imagine, if we had known in advance that the world's largest centralized exchange would suffer a security breach worth as much as 6 billion USD, logically, everyone would expect Bitcoin to face a panic sell-off. However, the reality is that today $BTC only dropped about 3%. Facing such a heavy negative shock, the market's resilience to decline is definitely worth pondering. Maybe we are getting closer and closer to the true market bottom? #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 $XRP XRP on exchanges has been continuously withdrawn, and I side with the withdrawal wave. Binance's XRP reserves dropped 8.18% in two days, leaving only 2.47 billion tokens, the lowest since December 2022. Balances on Bybit and Bithumb are also decreasing simultaneously, so it's not just one exchange bleeding. Previously, I was skeptical when exchange balances dropped, thinking transfers between hot and cold wallets could produce similar charts. But this time, several exchanges are dropping together, which looks more like real withdrawals rather than accounting adjustments. Binance just had $6.3 billion moved out, users are on edge and are pulling their coins back to their own wallets, which makes perfect sense. I casually checked the market: XRP is currently priced at 1.25, fluctuating between 1.2287 and 1.2626 in 24 hours. The perpetual funding rate is still positive, and contract leverage hasn't changed much. This selling pressure mainly comes from spot trading. There's just one thing I haven't figured out: withdrawals from exchanges are usually seen as a bullish signal, but this contraction happened right after trust issues emerged. I can't say which factor weighs more. Are you still keeping XRP on exchanges? #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 $BTC This thing in France is quite funny. The kidnappers rushed into a residence with masks on, demanding 660 bitcoins. The owner opened the Ledger and saw there were only 0.066 bitcoins in the account. Later investigation revealed that during a tax platform data leak, the decimal point was misplaced by a factor of ten thousand, turning a 4000 euro balance into 40 million euros. The kidnappers came based on this incorrect figure. Two people have been sentenced, but the mastermind is still at large. After laughing about it, thinking further, the ones actually sending BTC to exchanges recently are a different group. In the past 24 hours, over 36,600 bitcoins in loss positions were transferred to exchanges. Short-term holders really can't hold on this time. The current price is around 77,600; it rebounds to 78,088 then turns down, always just missing the mark. My view is that those cutting losses and those waiting to catch are just passing each other by at this level. It won't take long to see who is right or wrong. I haven't moved my position; I’m keeping my bullets ready to see who blinks first. #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 10月30日，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆表示，通胀压力仍在，后续不排除进一步收紧货币政策；达拉斯联储主席洛根则提出，可能还需要两次加息，每次25个基点。 但市场并没有完全按鹰派讲话交易。12月加息概率定价已从接近85%回落至70%-80%区间。美国9月核心PCE同比3.1%，通胀回落慢于预期，11月6日的非农就业数据因此成了下一处观察点。 📊 盘面上，BTC报77413.9，小幅下跌0.21%，24小时高低点为78070 / 76260，波动有所收窄；ETH报2247.18，上涨0.97%，价格在布林带中轨上方震荡；CORE报0.01430，下跌7.20%，抛压明显。 💡 我的看法。 宏观信号偏鹰，币种表现却没有同步转弱，说明资金正在分化：BTC更像是在等待新数据确认方向，ETH短线相对抗跌，CORE则直接承受卖压。这里的反差值得留意，单看美联储表态，无法解释所有币种的强弱差异。 如果非农继续强化加息预期，波动可能被放大；若数据没有进一步推高利率预期，BTC能否守住当前震荡区间、ETH的相对强势能否延续，会比单次讲话更有参考价值。你更关注11月6日非农对BTC的影响，还是CORE的下0.13314, a decisive kill at the high point. A precise ambush with a 50x short position, violently smashing the price down to 0.11255, locking in a floating profit of +773.24%. No emotions, only execution. In the face of the trend, hesitation is the breeding ground for liquidation. The market shows a neatly aligned bearish formation, with moving averages crossing downwards; every bearish candle crushes the bulls' illusions. The downward momentum is extremely fierce, making any rebound look pale and powerless. This is not a correction, but a one-sided slaughter. Looking ahead, the 0.1 whole number level is the real battlefield. A rebound that fails to break through is the entry signal; follow the trend to take profits, go against it and face liquidation. Calmness is the assassin's only armor. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 On Friday, US spot gold dropped from 4,021 to 3,870, closing at 3,876, breaking below 3,900 and hitting a new low since October last year. Silver simultaneously fell below $50, dropping 5.8% in a single day. The 4-hour chart shows a downward price selection. The price was pushed back three times this week when it surged to between 4,060 and 4,067, hovering around 4,000 for two days, and the last 4-hour candle broke through the lower boundary of the range. Resistance above is at 3,921, where the 5-day moving average lies, then 4,000, which after breaking down turns from support into resistance. Below, 3,870 is the Saturday low, 3,850 is the low area from October last year, and breaking 3,800 would open up deeper downside space. The macro side doesn’t align. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell from above 5% in October to 4.92%, declining over 30 basis points for the month, ending seven consecutive months of increases. Long-term rates are retreating, yet gold is also falling. The sell-off is driven by deleveraging forced by the tech stock crash, along with a single-day outflow of 10.5 tons from gold ETFs. Next Tuesday, November 3, is the midterm election. The market currently prices in a 65% chance of a Democratic sweep of both chambers. If this result occurs, fiscal expansion will be hindered, long-term rates have room to fall further, and oil prices lose the excuse for escalation. According to Caitong Securities, since 1950, gold has an 83% probability of rising in the 180 days following midterm elections, with an average increase of 6.4%. Therefore, I am short-term bearish but not long-term bearish. The 4-hour moving averages are in a bearish alignment; a rebound from 3,921 to 4,000 is a position to reduce holdings. If it cannot reclaim 4,000, no long positions will be taken. However, if after the election 3,850 holds and yields continue downward, this round of decline must be reassessed. Gold has fallen more than 30% from 5,598 at the end of January to now. Discipline is required when shorting at this level.Teacher, my Bitcoin is set in the 76500-74500 range, Ethereum is set in the 2150-1900 range, and Uni is set to buy if it goes below 6.7; if it breaks 6, increase buying. All are spot positions. I hope you can help me see if I need to make any adjustments 😆 --- I don't know your current position size, so I can't give very specific advice. If anyone wants to consult, it's best to provide existing position ratios, prices, risk tolerance, etc. The more dimensions, the better. You can refer to the $BTC price range I posted today (see image 3). For long-term positions, your prices are fine. My spot cost is 75k. You can also watch for opportunities in Bitcoin's alternative MSTR; if there's a discount, you can allocate some. Sellers are more mature this round. The prices for $ETH and $UNI are also fine, but note the special situation of these two being stolen coins this time. For small stolen coins like UNI, the price was dumped during the theft, then reversed sharply (V-shaped), showing strength, but after withdrawals open, they will follow market trends. ETH was strong before withdrawals opened, but weak after, as hackers started washing coins. It will likely drop for a while, with 500,000 ETH dumped on the market. Binance will open withdrawals tomorrow. Refer to Btbit's stolen 510,000 ETH: it dropped during the theft, rose before the exchange gathered the coins, and once hackers started laundering, it dropped. So, I opened a short position yesterday, but noticed many more shorts opened today, haha, planning to exit when the opportunity arises. $TAO is just a mini position, but this coin is quality air. #37DegreePositionClinic Issue 11There's something I've never quite understood: a crypto exchange gets kicked out for five years, yet they can still sit down and negotiate for 10 months. Is that a punishment or a bargaining chip? In July 2021, Malaysia stopped Binance's local operations, then in 2024 removed it from the investor warning list, as if turning a new page. But this month, it was put back on the list again. Meanwhile, the spokesperson said they had been negotiating with the Securities Commission and the central bank for 10 months, trying to get the license back. What's even more subtle is that because Lim Guan Eng requested an investigation, Binance directly shut down a market linked to the Malaysian Ringgit. The $BNB price barely reacted, as if everyone was already used to it. So who is really waiting for whom? It doesn't quite seem like regulators are enforcing the law; it feels more like both sides are dragging it out, seeing who will give in first. Coinbase第三季度的标题数字很漂亮：净利润7.187亿美元，比去年同期增长66%。不过翻开10-Q，大头其实是所持加密资产的未实现收益，约7.15亿美元；经营利润仅约6170万美元，调整后净利润约7800万美元。 我觉得收入结构更有看点：总收入12.2亿美元，与上季度持平，比去年同期少35%。CFO提到，本季全市场加密交易量环比减少约10%；同一时间，今年初才推出的预测市场年化收入突破2亿美元（上季度超1亿美元），预测市场和衍生品合计贡献了约25%的交易收入。 从后端开发者的角度看：币价重估带来的利润，行情一变就可能反向，眼下BTC约77,374美元（CoinGecko快照）。我更在意的是业务重心的迁移，Coinbase正把收入来源从现货手续费扩展到事件合约、衍生品和稳定币。 Coinbase posted 718.7M USD in Q3 net income, up 66% YoY. Yet in the 10-Q, roughly 715M was unrealized gains on crypto held for investment. Operating incomTo be honest, I used to think that high fees meant strength, and paying some fees was no big deal. The lesson is: popularity doesn't equal cost-effectiveness. This time, $ZRO's funding rate absolute value ranks first, at 0.0080% per hour, approximately 70% annualized. I treat it more as a long position cost warning: a positive rate means longs pay shorts, and the longer the position is held, the more the accumulated fees cannot be ignored. Now I stick to two rules: calculate holding fees before opening a position; don't use high fees as a reason to chase the price. Survive first, don't just focus on gains. Binance's situation in Malaysia presents two opposing signals simultaneously, worth analyzing separately. First, the progress. A Binance spokesperson confirmed that for the past 10 months, they have been communicating with the Malaysian Securities Commission and the central bank, discussing a licensed business model with the goal of re-entering the local market. Ten months is not a short time; this is not just testing the waters. Next, the historical record. In July 2021, the Malaysian Securities Commission ordered Binance to cease local operations, effectively a removal. In 2024, the agency removed Binance from the investor alert list, which was a relaxation. But this month, it was re-listed. In the same month, while negotiating licenses, Binance was also named, indicating that negotiations have not yet been finalized. There is another detail. In response to the investigation request by Lim Guan Eng, Binance shut down a Papua New Guinea Kina trading market linked to the Malaysian Ringgit and also responded to complaints from the Romanian Leu market. The pattern is clear: when local currency faces controversy, compliance actions are taken first to close the loophole before further talks. This is not an expansion rhythm. Mechanism-wise: for an exchange to return to a market from which it was removed, simply submitting a license application is not enough; regulators must be convinced that past issues will not recur. Local fiat channels, abnormal trading pairs, and public inquiries are all observation windows. The judgment is: $BNB will not have price movement in the short term due to this news; it is neither approved nor banned, just still in talks. The watershed is the license approval, not the length of communication. Worth pondering: being re-listed on the warning list in the same month as license talks—is this regulatory price pressure, or is the process just this long? $ZEC: Go long! Strategy: · Wait for the price to pull back to the 1265-1275 range (EMA moving average dense support zone) and stabilize before entering a long position. · The initial target is 1297 (24-hour high); if this is effectively broken, look towards 1320-1350. Set stop loss below 1245. Core basis: 1. Moving average bullish support: On the 4-hour level, EMA5/10/20 are tightly converged near 1265 and turning upward, with the price holding above all three lines, establishing a short-term bullish structure. 2. Whale short squeeze: Chart 1 shows short positions as high as 203 million U (nearly 3 times the long positions), average price 1261, current price 1281 has caused shorts to be fully underwater. Once the price rallies, it can easily trigger a short squeeze. 3. Pattern oscillating higher: Since the 1200 bottom rebound, lows have been rising continuously; currently in an accumulation phase before breakout, pulling back to buy offers an excellent risk-reward ratio. #加密行业协同守护资产安全 #US stocks and gold & silver plunge simultaneously, safe-haven capital flows diverge #US stocks and gold & silver plunge simultaneously, liquidity stampede across the entire market: sell what can be liquidated first, regardless of safe-haven or growth Global assets are collectively sold off, driven not by a single fundamental negative factor but by institutional liquidity stampede. US stocks: Nasdaq dropped 2.86% in one day, with over $2 trillion market cap evaporated in October; Google plunged 12.6%, Intel crashed 28.6%, semiconductor sector became the main driver of the sell-off. A-shares weakened in sync, STAR 50 fell 5.48%, ChiNext dropped over 4%. Precious metals completely lost their safe-haven status: gold fell 3.3% in one day, silver dropped 5.9%, accumulating declines of 6.5% and 18.3% respectively in October. Crypto market under pressure: BTC bottomed at $76,300, 24-hour decline of 3%-5%, with about $1.57 billion liquidated across the market. The $76,100-$76,800 range is the core long liquidation cluster; breaking below with volume will trigger a new round of forced selling pressure, worsening an already fragile market. Underlying logic: when institutions face margin calls and redemption pressure, they prioritize selling highly liquid assets—whether tech growth stocks or traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver—to convert everything into cash flow first. In a liquidity crisis, there is no absolutely safe asset. $BTC $ETH $BTC $ETH are pulling back on low volume, what am I watching? Liquidity is thin over the weekend, both BTC and ETH are in a low-volume tug-of-war rhythm. It's too early to say "stabilizing and rebounding," it looks more like searching for a temporary balance zone. BTC: The 76,000 area is the current defensive observation point, with 78,500–79,000 above forming the first resistance. I don't guess the direction, just watch the conditions: can the monthly candle close above 77,000? If yes, the bottom structure can be considered initially established; if not, a second retest is a scenario to watch. ETH: 2,150–2,200 is the core defense, only above 2,300 can we talk about recovery, and the 100-day EMA near 2,350 remains a strong resistance. Before the structure completes, repeated range movements are normal. More worth watching than price levels are two things: Hedge funds recently reduced about 68,000 BTC worth of ETF exposure; a single-day inflow cannot change the net outflow trend for the month; the Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.75%–4%, with two members even advocating for hikes. The high-rate environment directly suppresses incremental capital's willingness to chase highs. My personal observation framework is simple: low-volume rebounds don't count; only a high-volume recovery above resistance zones warrants reevaluating the structure. Weekend volatility tends to amplify, so position management is more practical than direction guessing. The above is just my personal review notes and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and control risks. #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 $SOL: Short on rebound Strategy: · Wait for the price to rebound to the 96.50-97.00 range (EMA20 resistance zone and previous downtrend consolidation platform) and then enter short. · Target first at 93.50 (24-hour low), if broken effectively then look at 92.26 (previous low). Stop loss set above 98.00. Core basis: 1. Bears absolutely dominate: Figure 1 shows the nominal long-short ratio is only 28.57%, with short positions reaching 357 million U (3.5 times that of longs!). The average short cost is 98.72, currently holding nearly 67% profit, with a large defense margin; while longs average 107.49 deeply underwater, losing over 12.59 million U. The market is completely controlled by bears. 2. Moving average bearish pressure: On the 1-hour level, EMA5 (95.59), EMA10 (95.67), and EMA20 (95.83) are tightly converged and slightly downward, price rebounds are very weak, unable to effectively break above the moving averages, bearish trend remains unchanged. 3. Low volume weak rebound: Since the rebound from 92.26, volume has severely shrunk, with heavy trapped positions in the 98-100 area (also the short cost zone), bulls are powerless to push up, typical downtrend consolidation pattern. The rebound is an opportunity to enter short, with an excellent risk-reward ratio. $BTC $ETH #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 US stocks plummeted, A-shares plummeted Intel and Google plummeted The panic index surged Historically, there have only been 3 VIX gaps that were not filled, on April 14, 2025, April 8, 2026, and yesterday's gap Historical data shows the probability of filling the gap within 180 trading days is about 97% I started bottom-fishing US stock indexes, buying more as they fall, only buying spot, no leverage, but I avoid A-shares #加密行业协同守护资产安全 #加密行业协同守护资产安全 Progress on the $6.3 billion theft case: layered payout of stolen funds, altcoin sell pressure looming Latest update on the Binance theft incident: approximately $3 billion of involved assets have been frozen, covering 80% of the funding gap. Joint efforts with the FBI and other agencies are underway to trace the source. Plans are in place to resume withdrawals soon and issue reserve certificates. Difficulty in recovering stolen assets varies significantly: - Stablecoins can be directly frozen by issuers, making recovery paths the clearest - Native blockchain assets like BTC and $ETH cannot be frozen on-chain; only CEX withdrawal channels can be intercepted, while off-exchange mixing still allows for liquidation possibilities - Altcoins such as $ARB, ENA, AVAX remain in hacker addresses; $ARB alone totals 74.56 million coins, too large to be sold off in bulk, creating long-term potential sell pressure on the market. Market risk points: Exchanges need to repurchase $ETH to compensate, possibly triggering an independent short-term rally; however, hackers selling in batches will continue to suppress rebound highs. Historically, similar thefts have caused $ETH to drop 800 points in a single day, dragging $BTC down nearly 10,000 points. The essence of the incident is a major test of industry trust: security capabilities and asset transparency are becoming core competitive advantages for exchanges. The impact is not just on funds but on the entire industry's trust foundation. Strict stop-loss measures must be enforced. $BTC $ETH $ARB 💥 Panic and speculation resonate! ANTHROPIC climbs against the trend to the top Total network liquidation of $1.65 billion Panic index drops to 29 ANTHROPICUSDT $169, nearly ten million in volume directly topping Risk aversion panic and crazy speculation happening simultaneously $ANTHROPIC Pure synthetic exposure No real equity Implied valuation at 1.9 trillion Trading is hot, but depth is very shallow Retail longs are six times the shorts No big players taking over Funds flock to the most hyped narrative and thinnest liquidity areas $BTC & $ETH Same panic, two ledgers BTC 77392.5 USDT (+0.14%) Dipped to 76400 early morning Long liquidations account for 86% ETH 2243.73 USDT October ETF outflows nearly 1.32 billion But whales average price 2237 Quietly bought 9,375 coins in half a month Institutions are withdrawing, whales are absorbing BTC spot ETF is the only support on the board $SOL Oversold, withdrawal data diverge Current price 95.62 USDT (-0.68%) RSI on 14th is 27.6, entering oversold Small rebound after 92.34 support On-chain withdrawals 68,000 coins Funding rate is positive Decline mainly driven by spot selling SOL is still searching for a new bottom Summary Market lacks incremental funds, certainty is insufficient $6.3 billion black swan aftershocks have not dissipated 78% probability of rate hike in December The cost of chasing hot narratives far exceeds patiently waiting for stabilization signals Will you gamble on ANTHROPIC's AI narrative or safely hold mainstream for certainty? Observation based on market data only, not investment advice $BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 $BTC experienced such a major security incident, yet not a single drop of blood was spilled. The 20,000 coins in the hacker's hands are tightly locked on-chain and simply can't be dumped. The exchange has to forcibly buy back on the spot market to cover the hole. Bad news can't move the market, which actually means good news; the market is much stronger than expected. #BTC $BTC 👇Many people don't realize one detail: the user compensation fund next door exists in the form of $BTC! That means, to compensate users, they must sell off $BTC into USDT. So although BTC wasn't directly dumped in the hacker incident, the 18,000 BTC (about 2.4 billion) next door became a looming inventory. Coupled with the panic caused by the hacker incident, BTC's technicals have hit a 30-day low of 77430, RSI at 36.5, and MA7/20/30/60 all pressing down from above, with the bearish alignment unchanged. Of course, some rejoice while others cry; the hacker incident actually gave $ZEC a privacy + self-custody narrative (Grayscale Trust has had 8 consecutive days of net inflows). Technically, it stands above MA7/30/60, up 11% in 7 days, RSI neutral at 51.8, with 1276 still some distance from the 30-day high of 1372. $XRP is the worst hit, because the hacker's XRP wallet still holds 290 million tokens locked and unmoved, which remains a persistent risk of dumping. Ripple's self-rescue has no direct help to the coin price. Technically, 1.2487 is the 30-day low, RSI 37.9, and all five moving averages at 1.2932, 1.3124, 1.3581, 1.3961, 1.3294 are pressing from above. A 16% drop in 30 days is the weakest performance.Panic and Speculation Resonance: ANTHROPIC Tops $1.65 billion liquidated across the network, panic index drops to 29. ANTHROPICUSDT tops at $169 with nearly ten million in volume, an extreme coexistence of risk aversion and speculation. $ANTHROPIC: Pure synthetic exposure. No real equity, yet valued at 1.9 trillion. Large volume but shallow depth, retail longs outnumber shorts by six times with no major holders supporting, funds flow to the steepest and shallowest narrative corners. $BTC and $ETH: Panic on the same stage, two ledgers. BTC at 77,392.5 USDT (+0.14%), touched 76,400 at dawn, with 86% of long positions liquidated. ETH at 2,243.73 USDT. A stark contrast: ETH ETF outflows near 1.32 billion in October, yet whales bought 9,375 coins at an average price of 2,237 over half a month. Institutions exit, whales enter, BTC spot ETF becomes the sole supporter. $SOL: Oversold and withdrawal divergence. At 95.62 USDT (-0.68%). 14-day RSI dropped to 27.6 oversold, rebounded after 92.34 support. But on-chain withdrawals total 68,000 coins, while funding rate remains positive. Decline mainly driven by spot selling, SOL is seeking a new foothold. Summary: Market lacks certainty from incremental funds. The aftershocks of a 6.3 billion black swan event persist, December rate hike probability reaches 78%, chasing narratives costs more than certainty. #英特尔Q4指引不及预期，股价暴跌近30% #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 This quarter is very likely to "exceed expectations," but this looks more like a report "made" by the time window and product mix rather than a signal of broadly stronger demand. The real market test is not the past September quarter, but how Ternus describes the guidance for the December quarter in the conference call—that will be the first real window to assess "whether the price increase can be continuously absorbed" and how significant the $ "memory cost impact" is. If this quarter's numbers are good but the guidance is soft, the stock price may face profit-taking pressure. We'll see later.
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