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The biggest victim of this incident, Brother Ba Bai, was also left confused by the main force 😹😹😹 He’s planning to take a break today as well.
Brothers, take a look at these three orders from Brother Ba Bai a few days ago:
$SOXL (over 10x leverage)
Opening average price: 80.51
Profit: +257589.37 USDT, return rate +303.67%
$SKHY Hynix (over 20x leverage)
Opening average price: 137.3
Profit: +47579.72 USDT, return rate +288.79%
$SNDK K SanDisk (over 10x leverage)
Opening average price: 1223.2
Profit: +33776.36 USDT, return rate +126.26%
Total unrealized profit: 338945.45 USDT
Current SOXL: 77.59
SKHY Hynix: 150.47
SNDK SanDisk: 1156.6
This is definitely not the bottom now; this is just a pause in the downtrend.
The market rebound is very weak, all moving averages are pressing overhead, and the support is completely insufficient.
Looking ahead at the earnings calendar, November has a bunch of heavyweight earnings lined up: Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, ARM, and finally Nvidia.
Crude oil remains high, inflation expectations are suppressing rate cuts, and long-term valuation targets like storage and computing power are in an unfriendly macro environment.
The negative factors haven’t fully played out yet; the bottom won’t come that easily.
Be patient and wait for the earnings wave to finish and the negative factors to be realized before considering action. For now, watch more and act less. #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 $COMP
Governance is a central part of Compound’s investment thesis. Decisions around lending parameters, collateral requirements, and protocol upgrades can influence how the lending market operates. However, governance participation does not automatically translate into stronger token demand. The important distinction is between COMP’s role in protocol decision-making and the economic benefits token holders may actually receive under the prevailing governance framework.Two whales simultaneously liquidated their entire $HYPE holdings, one making 10 million, the other 16.5 million.
Address 0x2685 sold 912,400 tokens, pocketing 10 million USD. Address 0x648F sold 296,700 tokens, pocketing 16.5 million USD.
Note the contrast: the former sold more than three times the amount of the latter but earned less, indicating a significant difference in entry cost. 0x648F had positioned earlier, while 0x2685 chased in later.
Two large addresses acting simultaneously and in the same direction is unlikely a coincidence. Whales collectively reducing positions usually has two explanations: either they have information retail investors don’t see, or their unrealized profits are substantial enough to take profits now.
The biggest risk for such highly volatile assets isn’t a price drop, but liquidity being drained. Total sell-off exceeded 1.2 million tokens, enough to cause double-digit percentage drops during thin order book periods.
But don’t rush to be bearish. Taking profits and being bearish are different. What matters is how many tokens remain in these addresses after selling, and whether new addresses pick up these chips. Turnover to long-term wallets is healthy; full flow to exchange hot wallets signals selling pressure beginning.
The key now isn’t storytelling, but on-chain data. Whale selling is just the first layer of signal; the second is where these tokens ultimately go.
Don’t make decisions on the day whales move. Wait two days, watch if volume abnormally spikes, and see if price holds key support levels.
Position sizing is more important than judgment.891 million is not the money shorts will lose
$ETH currently has $891 million worth of short liquidation pressure hanging above.
This number indicates the position size that will be forcibly closed when the price hits $2345.
How this number is calculated: it aggregates the liquidation thresholds of short positions across all major platforms.
The higher the price goes, the more shorts get liquidated, and the stronger the buying pressure.
At the moment of triggering: shorts are bought back by the system to close positions, pushing the price further up.
The same applies downward; breaking below $2124 triggers over 440 million worth of sell orders waiting to be liquidated.
The difference between the two sides is double, indicating that those betting on a drop are more crowded than those betting on a rise.
Resistance going up is smaller than going down.
If it really surges, the ones being liquidated are shorts, not that the market itself is that strong.
If this rally really happens, it only means the leverage was on the wrong side.
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 $ETH Short-term funds seem to be recovering, but the real main force has not stopped retreating yet
Don't be fooled by a few hours of green fund bars; switch to 24-hour and 30-day cycles, and the fund performance of BTC, ETH, and SOL tells a completely different story.
🔻 $BTC: There is inflow in both short-term contracts and spot, but net outflows of about $570 million on both ends over 24 hours, and cumulative outflows exceeding tens of billions over 30 days. Short-term recovery is not enough to prove institutional funds are re-entering.
🔻 $ETH: Spot net inflow of $284 million over 24 hours, but contract side net outflow of $380 million; spot still outflows about $3.1 billion over 30 days. Someone is taking over spot, but the overall fund structure remains weak.
🔻 $SOL: Spot funds have clearly returned in the last 8–12 hours, but still net outflow of nearly $30 million over 30 days. Active short-term buying does not mean the mid-to-long-term trend has reversed.
My judgment: Short cycles reflect sentiment, but only long cycles can reveal whether funds have truly returned. Looking only at a few hours of inflow can easily mistake a technical rebound for a trend reversal.
Against the backdrop of core PCE rising to 3.1% and still high rate hike expectations, I prefer to wait for sustained fund inflows rather than rush to chase gains.
When you look at fund flows, do you pay more attention to 24-hour data or 30-day trends?
#BTC #ETH #SOL #CryptoMarket
#FedHikeOutlookDivided Don't just focus on those few lines jumping up and down on the intraday chart, switch to the order book depth and take a look—it's all tricks played by the main players! Some orders hanging there are definitely not waiting for you to execute; they're purely traps for you.
First, look at $BTC current price 77280, the order ratio is 52 to 48, which looks quite balanced, but looking further down, near 76000 there's a massive buy order of over ten million USD slammed in, and above at around 79000 there's a layered selling pressure. Without volume to push the price up, the main players place a big order below to prop it up, most likely to stabilize your emotions, but they can withdraw the order anytime to dump the price.
Next, look at $ETH current price 2242, the buy side slightly dominates (55 to 45), with over seven million USD of support orders at 2187. But everyone knows Ethereum's sluggish nature; above at 2300 there's a thick red selling wall. This structure with support orders below and a solid ceiling above means that unless big real money comes in, dreaming of a V-shaped rebound is just wishful thinking.
Finally, look at $SOL current price 96.6, the order ratio is 36 to 64, the sell side is crushing the buy side. At 98 above, there's a selling wall of over 1.8 million USD, clearly telling you that any rebound will be a target for shorts. As soon as the market softens a bit, SOL is very likely to lead the price dump.
Summary: Weekend liquidity is poor, order placements and cancellations depend entirely on the whims of manipulative traders. Never chase longs just because the buy orders look thick below; watch more and act less.
What do you think— is that ten-million buy wall at 76000 real support or just a bait painted by manipulative traders? Do you have any positions now?
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Weekend casual news browsing
Uber pilots on-chain weekend liquidity
HSBC tokenized deposits buy Franklin Templeton tokenized money market funds
Buy on Thursday, can sell on Sunday
Earn about 1.5 days of interest extra
Previously had to exit on Friday
Weekend cash just lying idle
Canton atomic settlement 24/7
Tradeweb and Fireblocks are both present
Corporate treasury wants to keep less idle cash but be able to pay anytime
This story is quite interesting
First, look at the process
No trading callsNarrative Yields to Chip Structure: Whale Defense Line and Macro Suppression
When the "October Rally" was shattered by a $76,000 spike, and the AI star Pre-IPO contract plunged 7% after the S-1 disclosure, the market cruelly declared: the narrative is giving way to chip structure.
$BTC (77,354 USD): Clinging tightly to the $76,000-$78,000 betting zone. Whales reduced positions by two-thirds in this range and then bought back at $76,000, confirming $58,000 as the bottom of this round.
$ETH (2,243.61 USD): Technically broke below the key support at $2,385. Whales sold about 160,000 coins over several days (over $348 million), and exchange balances increased by 100,000 coins, creating sustained selling pressure. Coupled with the indefinite delay of the Glamsterdam testnet upgrade causing a narrative vacuum, the $2,000 target is not alarmist.
$ANTHROPIC (167.40 USD): The Pre-IPO premium is being corrected by financial reality. Although it only fell 1.66% intraday, it once plunged 7% after the S-1 filing. Tenfold leverage combined with 24/7 trading makes private placement valuation bets extremely sensitive without public financial details; this is the speculative pricing inevitably converging toward verified information.
Summary: The core contradiction is not direction but who holds the chips. Whales are drawing lines or unloading at key levels of BTC and ETH. Under a 5% risk-free rate backdrop, the tolerance for chasing highs is compressed to the extreme. Waiting for confirmation signals at key positions has far more survival value than guessing direction.
#闪迪Q1营收同比增378%，Q2营收指引强劲 Previously, it was believed that the BTC $78,000 level would be difficult to break below, but the actual price remained above $79,000 until a recent black swan event caused it to break that level. The individual had previously closed about two-thirds of their long positions near $76,000 to guard against a repeat of the extreme market conditions seen on October 11. After observing market stabilization over the past two days, they have re-entered full long positions in the $76,000 to $78,000 range. Their core judgment remains unchanged, still considering $58,000 as the bottom for this BTC cycle. They further pointed out that the bottom of the first phase of this bull market may be near $118,000, with the second phase's target being twice the $78,000 level, approximately $150,000, and they expect BTC to potentially reach $120,000 within this year. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Revenue rose 378%, but the stock price still fell: This lesson from SanDisk is different from Google's
Google's lesson is about expectation gaps: the earnings report wasn't bad, but it was worse than expected, so the stock fell. SanDisk's lesson is different: Q1 revenue increased 378% year-over-year, Q2 revenue guidance is also strong, yet the stock price still dropped 12.85%.
Strong guidance but a drop indicates one thing: the degree to which the market has priced in matters more than the earnings report itself. No matter how good the guidance is, if the stock price has already priced in the good news, the earnings night only has one outcome: fulfillment.
So, when looking at earnings reports, you need to consider three things. First, look at the expectation gap—whether the numbers are higher or lower than expected. Second, look at the guidance—whether it is being revised upward or downward. Third, look at the position—how much the stock price has already risen before the earnings report; the more it has risen, the higher the bar for earnings night.
Google's lesson sets the bar at expectations. SanDisk's lesson sets the bar at position. Together, these lessons show: whether earnings are good or not is one thing, but the market's grading of them is another.
When you look at earnings, do you first look at the numbers, or do you first look at how far the stock price has already moved before the earnings?
(Personal record, not investment advice. Numbers cited from Orbit topic page: SanDisk Q1 revenue up 378% YoY, Q2 revenue guidance strong (topic name), SNDK -12.85%; Google's comparison cited from my post on 10-30. No price points, no stock tips, no position cards. Contract risk is extremely high, leverage with caution.)$XAU Gold plunged over 100 points overnight! Short positions hit take profit points, is the truth that the economy is too good?
Brothers, did you enjoy the short-selling feast on gold yesterday? The short position suggested around 4010 has been perfectly realized! The gold price plummeted over 130 points, hitting a low of 3880. Friends who followed along, did you enjoy the gains?
Many are puzzled why gold fell instead of rising when the Chicago PMI was clearly below expectations. Actually, PMI is just a trigger; the real bomb is the overheated economy combined with high inflation! Core PCE exceeded expectations, indicating inflation remains stubborn, and strong employment data proves the labor market is hot. This directly caused the market to worry that the Fed will keep interest rates high for longer, strengthening the dollar and US Treasury yields, which severely suppressed gold prices.
The strong resistance zone at 4030-4040 is confirmed, rebounds only lead to pullbacks, and the bearish momentum is fully unleashed. Currently, gold has fallen to around 3880. A short-term technical rebound may occur due to overselling, but as long as the strong resistance zone above 4000 is not effectively broken, the overall strategy still recommends shorting on rallies.
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 Two large transfers squeezed into the same headline easily lead people to imagine a group of whales acting in unison. I think this news might have a greater impact on short-term sentiment than on proving actual supply and demand.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a certain whale received 9,625 $ETH from FalconX 4 hours ago, worth about $21.57 million; another address withdrew 3,377 ETH from OKX 8 hours ago, worth about $7.52 million. The numbers are indeed eye-catching, and I also paused for a few seconds after seeing them, but these are still two records that need to be understood separately.
Just because it's ETH doesn't mean the decisions behind them are the same. The data doesn't indicate any connection between the two addresses, so stitching them together as "whales collectively bullish" is missing a bridge. Also, "received" describes asset transfers without specifying when the transactions occurred; withdrawing from OKX doesn't explain how the assets will be used afterward, so you can't directly infer long-term holding.
What concerns me more is how such headlines affect ordinary people's judgment: the larger the amount, the easier it is for people to take others' fund movements as their own directional signals. If similar continuous and verifiable behaviors appear later, then discussions on supply and demand will be more solid—that's my speculation. For now, I will treat this as an observation clue and won't rush to write investment declarations for two unfamiliar addresses. Exchanging $10,000 in cryptocurrency costs $20 in tax and only $3 in protocol fees.
Yesterday was the deadline for comments. Uniswap, a16z, and the DeFi Education Fund jointly submitted a letter requesting that non-custodial protocols be excluded from the definition of brokers.
Illinois taxes based on total asset value, regardless of gains or losses; the draft also requires retention of private key records.
⚖️ I think the dispute is not about the tax rate, but whether DeFi counts as an intermediary; software that doesn't touch users' funds shouldn't act as a tax collector.
$UNI Strategy Q3 profits explode, can Seller really be the last to laugh?
Let's break down the data first. Strategy holds about 847,000 BTC, with an average position price of $75,000. BTC once touched $87,000 in Q3, and the new fair value accounting standard directly puts unrealized gains into net profit, resulting in a single-quarter record high.
But don't get too excited yet. First, this is rearview mirror data: Q3 surged sharply, but by the end of October it dropped to 76,472. If this happens in Q4, profits might be given back or even turn into unrealized losses. Second, the key is still financing: no matter how good the profits look, if the stock price has no premium and new shares can't be issued, the coin-buying flywheel will stall; the previous repurchase of preferred shares indicates pressure on the financing side.
For BTC: in the short term, it's a sentiment booster. The giant treasury making money will reinforce the narrative of "hoarding coins to amplify bull market gains." But the price is still grinding below 77,500, with 80,000 as a newly welded ceiling and 76,000 as the previous low blood bottom. Don't chase the rally triggered by the financial report; wait for the panic from hacker sell-offs to be digested, then consider going long near 76,500. Trusted 1000/2000! The price points mentioned are only a review of the original views and do not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH $SOL #StrategyQ3净利润创单季新高，数字资产收益贡献显著 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 $ZEC
I'll take a position first on ZEC: the area above 1270, I see as a cash-out zone, not the starting point of a second wave.
Today, an on-chain address cleared all its long ZEC positions, with a total profit of $21.9 million. They bought from below and aren't bothered by selling near 1270. Meanwhile, fees are still positive, longs are still paying, and the open interest of $147 million hasn't shrunk much—those taking positions remain, and those exiting are also present.
More lively than the price is governance. A few days ago, Zooko posted on the forum about cutting off ZCG's funding flow and slimming down the treasury, allocating 50 million for future development and legal defense funds; co-founder Bowe proposed shutting off the faucet even earlier. The treasury holds 125 million, with 144 ZEC flowing in daily, amounting to tens of millions annually. When funds are low, no one fights over them; when funds grow, those managing the money become targets.
Profits are easy to share, power is hard to divide. If you hold ZEC, will this position move?
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 The main funds played a trick of a golden cicada shedding its shell here, don't just focus on the small profits in front of you
First look at $BTC short-term (within a few hours) contracts and spot, both are indeed net inflows, it looks like a counterattack is coming. But if you scroll down, contracts have a 24-hour net outflow of 570 million, spot also outflows 570 million, and over 30 days both lines outflow over 10 billion. The short term gives you a little sweetness, but in the long term big money is still retreating crazily. The pump is just to unload, don't be the bag holder
Next look at $ETH spot, it barely held strong with a 24-hour net inflow of 284 million, but contracts ran off 380 million. This is clearly spot supporting the bottom while contracts are dumping. Looking at 30 days, spot outflowed 3.1 billion. This is called a dead duck stubbornly trying to survive; the support can last a moment, but not forever
Finally look at $SOL, quite interesting, spot 8 to 12 hours are all green bars aggressively bottom fishing, but note that 30 days still outflows nearly 30 million. Short-term funds are trading inside, but the big trend has not reversed at all
In summary, short-term data is just a smokescreen used by manipulative traders to draw charts, the big cycle fund movements are the trump card. Without continuous big money entering, the current rebound is all an illusion
Do you usually watch the market focusing only on short-term excitement or on big cycle trends? Have you ever been fooled by such short-term illusions?
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 $BTC $ETH $SOL The $HYPE project team spent 67 million on buybacks in one month, yet the price still dropped by 20%.
If you do the math carefully, you'll understand.
For every 1 token burned, 16 new unlocked tokens are directly dumped onto the market.
This buying pressure is purely a stepping stone for insiders to cash out.
Once the funds are exhausted, the market can't hold up at all; expect continued bearishness on rallies.
#HYPE
$HYPE
👇$BNB is building a new public chain for high-frequency and AI without issuing a single new token.
CZ said, "Multiple chains, one coin," with Gas and staking all locked to BNB.
This is called not splitting the temple or issuing new stocks, but directly building skyscrapers on the existing foundation.
If it were another project team, they would have already cashed out by issuing a bunch of new tokens under the guise of a new ecosystem.
This time, BNB injects all new demand into the old token, completely eliminating the risk of new tokens crashing the market.
This hard logic of locking scarcity makes it difficult for the market not to break upwards in the future.
#BNB
$BNB
👇When I was learning to write strategies, the easiest place to slack off was equating "exception resolution" directly with "risk reset to zero." If written as a strategy: if the protocol has ever experienced withdrawal restrictions, it should enter the watchlist and cannot be automatically removed just based on a single recovery announcement. 🤖
This time, Jupiter Lend stated that the liquidity shortage situation has ended. After replenishing liquidity, $USDC withdrawals have returned to normal, and the previously surging utilization rate has also declined. Previously, due to the overall market environment, the protocol's liquidity was tight, and some withdrawals were affected.
My judgment is that this is a substantial improvement for users with withdrawal needs, but it is not enough to label the protocol as "pressure resistance verified." Withdrawal recovery solves the immediate availability issue; the decline in utilization indicates some relief in tension but cannot alone answer whether it can withstand the next round of concentrated withdrawals.
The advantage of this rule is to avoid being led by announcements, but the loophole is that it may be overly conservative: without continuous data, I might never dare to remove it from observation. According to my speculation, if subsequent smooth withdrawals and stable performance after liquidity replenishment can be continuously observed, then removal from observation is more justified and cannot rely solely on the moment of recovery.
If you were to write the conditions for "removal from the watchlist" yourselves, would you require continuous observation of withdrawal status, or must you also include information about the source of liquidity?#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 Apple is very likely to deliver a good earnings report this quarter, with revenue and earnings per share having a certain chance to exceed expectations
iPhone 18 Pro series has already entered the sales cycle, and this quarter includes initial sales data from the launch period, so revenue is very likely to increase.
Storage chip costs: my biggest concern
Rising memory prices, supply chain constraints, and product cost pressures may squeeze Apple's hardware profits.
The company's gross margin guidance for this quarter is 47%–48%, which also includes about a 1 percentage point benefit from tariff refunds.
Without one-time factors like tariff refunds, the core operating margin might not be as strong as the surface data suggests.Another big investment in the AI inference sector. Baseten has launched a new $2 billion funding round, with a valuation reaching up to $30 billion, and Sands Capital is expected to lead the investment.
What further illustrates the situation is the pace. Founded in 2019, it only raised $1.5 billion at a $13 billion valuation in June this year, and in less than four months, its valuation more than doubled. Its competitor Fireworks AI was valued at $17.5 billion in July. Nvidia invested $150 million in it this January.
A company focused on model deployment and inference, with a valuation surpassing most public companies, indicates that capital pricing for "selling shovels" has not yet peaked. Inference costs are the largest expenditure in AI applications; whoever can reduce the unit cost will capture this growth.
What’s the relation to on-chain? The connection lies in narrative transmission. The AI plus crypto theme has been searching for justification this year—decentralized computing power, inference markets, etc. As long as traditional AI financing continues to push valuations higher, there remains benchmarking space for similar on-chain projects; once the market cools, this theme will be the first to be drained.
My interpretation is: it does not change the fundamentals of any coin but gives the AI concept a breath of fresh air. The real focus should still be on the overall market. Whether $BTC holds determines if concept coins have a second wave; the strength of $ETH and $SOL decides whether funds stay in mainstream or move to small caps. For AI to move, the prerequisite is that the big market stabilizes first. #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 。
The focus of AMD's earnings report is the commercialization of the Helios rack-level AI system. It has been mass-produced and delivered to Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, and others, with some customers increasing their demand. The report pays attention to the shipment and revenue recognition slope, order visibility, and whether the ROCm ecosystem and pricing can fulfill the TCO commitments."So what if the earnings report exploded? I insist on betting No"
First, reveal my chips: $SNDK (SanDisk), I choose No. Not because the fundamentals are weak, but precisely because this earnings report is so impressive!
Revenue surged 378% year-over-year, and the guidance looks fierce, sounding like a charge? Wrong! The AI storage segment had already surged before the earnings report, and expectations have been fully priced in well in advance. When the good news is fully out in the open, the moment it lands is often the signal for profit-taking to start.
To be more explicit, storage has a very strong cyclical nature. Capital is not focused on how strong this quarter is, but on the future supply pattern and Q2 guidance. As long as the guidance is not "explosively ridiculous," it's hard to keep fueling high valuations.
Looking at the current sentiment, today both optical communication and storage in the computing hardware chain are retreating simultaneously, and the sector's beta is already weakening. $SNDK trying to independently close in the green against the whole sector? Too difficult.
Giving No a 65 score means most capital simply doesn't believe "good earnings = continued rise." What I’m betting on is the pullback right after the good news is fully priced in. This is not bearish on its fundamentals, but a real "expectation gap" trade. In crypto and US stocks, buying the expectation and selling the fact is always the truth.
$BTC
#闪迪Q1营收同比增378%，Q2营收指引强劲 Last night, the global markets experienced an indiscriminate bloodbath. The Nasdaq plunged 2.86%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was hammered down 7.2%, even gold, long considered a safe haven, crashed 3.5%, and silver fell below the $50 mark, plummeting over 6%. Our BTC also couldn't hold up, directly dropping below $77,000.
Looking at this market, many were stunned. What exactly happened? The comments below revealed the truth: liquidity across the entire market has been drained, and everyone is indiscriminately deleveraging.
Look at the bond market in the chart: the 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to 4.93%, and bond prices surged sharply. What does this indicate? It means that at this extremely panic-stricken moment, large funds are frantically cashing out and exiting. To cover margin calls, even hard assets like gold are being indiscriminately sold off, and ultimately all the liquidity flows into risk-free US Treasuries.
In this deleveraging meat grinder, there is no such thing as an independent "safe-haven asset" rally. When institutions face liquidation and redemption pressure, BTC, gold, and tech stocks all turn into cash machines. This is a classic precursor to a liquidity crisis.
Back to our market, BTC has fallen below $77,000 and is now on an extremely dangerous edge. Looking further down, the 76,100 to 76,800 range is the densest liquidation zone for longs, very close by. If BTC continues to crash down with volume and breaks through this area, triggering a chain reaction of long liquidations, that will be the truly darkest moment. #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 $BTC The kitchen exhaust fan buzzed under a fierce fire: in Amazon's big pot, retail is just a slow simmer, while AWS is like a ladle of boiling oil poured into the stove, accelerating for the sixth consecutive quarter with the hottest flames in nearly five years. Third-quarter revenue was $201.9 billion, up 12% year-over-year, slightly below expectations, like a starter dish lacking a bit of flair; but cloud business AWS revenue was $45.984 billion, up 39.3%, this is the main course suddenly spiced up, fragrant and sharp, also hot enough to wake you up. The problem is the charcoal fire under the stove money is soaring simultaneously: quarterly capital expenditure was $75.9 billion, and free cash flow was negative $42.4 billion over the past twelve months. The fiercer the fire, the thinner the pot bottom; this is not reducing the sauce, it's adding cash flow fuel to the stove.
Making an investment portfolio is the same principle as seasoning a dish: mainstream coins are the main course, altcoins are the seasoning, and leveraged contracts are the extra spicy chili—too much chili burns the stomach, no matter how fierce the fire, it can't be saved. XASTS, this small plate of US stock tokenization, smells of AWS broth when served, but the kitchen floor is already leaking oil; diners see the plating, the master chef watches the stove eye, the flue, and the accounts. Accelerating cloud business is good, but uncontrolled capital expenditure is also true; these two flavors mixed together are like chili powder sprinkled in caramel, sweet and stimulating, with a strong aftertaste.
This dish's aroma can fool the nose, but the charcoal fire money can't fool the accountant. #amazonq3awsacceleratesOctober ended, money is moving faster than anyone else, all hiding in places with performance.
On the A-share side, the dual innovation sector collapsed again, the ChiNext Index fell ten points in a week, Tianfu Communications retreated over 26% in a week, AI hardware became a cash machine. But banks were embraced by the main force, China Merchants Bank had a net inflow of nearly 1.3 billion in a single week, Wuliangye and Moutai also attracted money against the trend.
The Hong Kong stock market is even more twisted, the Hang Seng Index rebounded 335 points on Friday, but northbound funds ran nearly 28 billion for the whole month, creating the largest single-month outflow in five years.
The US stock market was completely liquidated overnight, Intel crashed 28.59% in one day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.2%, the Nasdaq dropped 2.86%, the worst single day since June. Amazon's free cash flow went negative 42.4 billion, the AI money-burning ledger completely collapsed.
The crypto circle is suffocated by Binance's 6.3 billion dollar incident, $BTC once fell below 78,000, a six-week low, with over 1.1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, 180,000 people carried away. $ETH is the worst, the bulk of the hacker's loot is it, the daily RSI is oversold, touching 2175 intraday.
The most divided are commodities, gold fell below 3930, silver lost 50, but Brent oil stood above 114. Safe-haven assets started moving first.
Stock market kills crowded positions, crypto kills leverage, today whoever has cash in their pocket is the boss. #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
Moderna will release its Q3 earnings before the market opens on November 6. Revenue is expected to be $889 million (down 12.5% year-over-year), with a widened loss per share of $1.11 to $1.37.
The core issue is: although Q3 is the peak seasonal revenue period (accounting for about 55% of the second half), the foundation still heavily depends on the COVID vaccine. The newly launched flu and RSV vaccines are not assumed by management to contribute revenue in the full-year guidance, so they are unlikely to carry the load in the short term.
The real variable lies outside the earnings report: the Phase III interim data of the cancer vaccine intismeran, developed in collaboration with Merck, is the biggest catalyst for the second half. Additionally, Q3 bears about $900 million in settlement expenses.
An old Moderna saying: seasonal revenue determines whether this quarter meets expectations, but intismeran’s data will determine if Moderna can tell the next story. The earnings report itself is not a trading point; the pipeline update after hours is what matters $ETH $BTC $SOL Interesting.
Any assets that cannot be recovered through clawback or existing company holdings need to be repurchased. The specific repurchase amount has not yet been announced. The expected loss amount is $6.3 billion, of which about $3 billion has been frozen. The frozen funds will be re-minted and returned to Binance, while the remaining frozen funds will be permanently frozen. The entire $6.3 billion accounts for 3.91% of Binance's total assets. Once Tether/Circle reissues the frozen $3 billion, the remaining stolen amount will drop to $3.3 billion, accounting for 2.05% of Binance's total assets. Therefore, if no new freezes occur in the coming days, this means: Binance will be forced to repurchase $3.3 billion of stolen assets, including a large amount of Bitcoin. In other words, the hacker holds $3.3 billion worth of Bitcoin but will not sell it, as the hacker prefers to hold Bitcoin. Additionally, Binance needs to purchase $3.3 billion worth of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin. Therefore, mathematically, this hack actually brings in a $3.3 billion inflow of funds. This is why the harm from this hack is less than liquidation events like FTX.昨晚 $BTC 刚砸出 76260 的新低，还没缓过劲，美联储那边三位官员又排着队出来放鹰了。 先说事实。本周三议息会议，利率按在 3.75% 到 4% 没动，还有两位委员投反对票，嫌没加。周五洛根放话：至少再加两次、每次 25 个基点；穆萨莱姆更急，说收紧要尽快。底气是数据：9 月核心 PCE 同比 3.1%，四个月新高，通胀黏得很。 但市场没被吓住：12 月加息概率不升反降，从 84% 掉到 75% 上下，官员的嘴和市场的钱难得对不上。我赌市场看的是另一头：9 月非农才新增 2.9 万人，就业在降温。放鹰多半是预期管理，真定生死的是 11 月 6 号的非农和 12 月 8 到 9 号的会议。 落到我自己，今早的计划不变：$BTC 反抽到 77900 附近等空，不抄底。加息这把刀没落地之前，我宁可慢半拍。 以上都是我自己的盘感和计划，不构成建议。 你们赌哪边：12 月这 25 个基点，加，还是不加？#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 The black swan event in U.S. tech stocks is penetrating across markets in a highly destructive manner. $INTC experienced its largest single-day drop in 40 years, with selling momentum quickly spreading to the on-chain derivatives market. While Hyperliquid saw a daily trading volume of $308 million, long leverage faced a devastating liquidation, with $7.22 million in long positions forcibly closed and only $30,000 in short positions liquidated, exposing a severe mismatch in on-exchange liquidity absorbing the risk of U.S. stock assets.
This wave of panic selling clearly demonstrates the destructive power of cross-market linkage. The sharp deterioration in U.S. stock fundamentals triggered traditional funds to firmly short, while on-chain existing funds habitually speculated on rebounds, blindly catching falling knives. The collapse in valuations of external hard-tech leaders directly shattered the risk control defenses of some local longs, and the weak on-chain depth quickly created a liquidity vacuum in the face of one-sided selling, further draining active chips on the exchange.
Once risk aversion in the U.S. tech sector spills over, it easily causes liquidity withdrawal and risk suppression in the crypto market. Against the backdrop of sustained external risk aversion pressure, the $BTC long defense line will face severe tests, with the lower liquidity concentration zone shifting toward the $75,000 and even $74,000 levels. Until cross-market volatility returns to stability, on-chain derivatives with shallow depth and high-level altcoins are highly prone to continuous bleeding.
$SOL $ETH #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 Even if $CAP is pumped up, no one is buying, how many times has this happened, yet it keeps pumping, the order book is too thin, might as well pump if not, right The detail that made me most alert in Logan's latest speech is that although she voted to keep interest rates unchanged this time, she still believes that at least two more 25 basis point hikes are needed.
This is more worth pondering than simply hearing a hawkish statement. Supporting a pause in October does not mean she agrees that the current rate is sufficient to curb inflation. In her explanation, when market volatility is high, slowing the pace of adjustments allows the economy to adapt, but the ultimate policy destination has not changed.
Musallam also suggested that further tightening of policy is needed soon. At least for now, the market still finds it hard to interpret this pause as the end of the rate hike cycle.
I think the upcoming debate will be harder to trade. People are not only guessing whether there will be a move in December but also reassessing where rates might ultimately settle. Even if there is another pause next time, as long as expectations for maintaining high rates for a longer period strengthen, risk assets may not feel comfortable.
Of course, these are individual officials' judgments, not actions already decided by the committee.
But for BTC, hoping that a single pause will bring sustained easing is indeed a bit extravagant right now. I would rather accept continued market fluctuations than automatically filter out those unpleasant signals in policy just to catch a rebound. The market will not end this debate early just because we are tired of hearing it.
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 To conclude first: your USDT is two things — the issuer's credit, plus a switch held by someone else.
On 10-29 20:04 UTC, Binance was hacked for $6.3 billion (the largest ever). The hackers first exchanged coins: converting freezable USDT/USDC into unfreezable BTC/ETH, with 325 million converted to ETH in less than an hour. Tether froze about $1.567 billion USDT (the first large freeze happened 37 minutes after the funds entered the main wallet), and Circle froze $823 million USDC three minutes later.
The slip-through was even more glaring: from 20:58 to 21:01 UTC, the attacker deposited 60 million USDT into Aave V3 and borrowed 44.6 million WETH, 40 minutes before the first freeze, with the position still overcollateralized to this day. There is no pause button on-chain; the money just slipped through the cracks.
On the other hand: Tether's Q3 attestation (BDO) shows an overcollateralization of $7.95 billion at the end of September (up from $4.1 billion in June), Q3 profits of $1.5 billion, and holdings of $132.4 billion in US Treasuries and $8.37 billion in BTC reserves.
So it's not that "USDT is unsafe," but that the money recorded under someone else's name, the credit and the switch, are all in someone else's hands.
Which side do you care more about — the growing reserves, or the switch still held by the issuer? $USDT The name of the institution can sometimes stir emotions more than the transfer itself. When I saw this message, the first thing I wanted to remind myself was: don't take the label on the address as the institution's investment stance directly.
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, since yesterday, a16z-related entities have transferred 118,000 $HYPE tokens in batches to Wintermute, Galaxy Digital, and Cumberland. Based on an average price of $90.72, the value is about $10.7 million, but the specific purpose is still unclear.
My judgment is that the emotional impact of this news is more direct than its proof of selling pressure. "Related entities" does not equal an official statement from a16z; the $10.7 million is the transfer value calculated at the average price, not the amount already sold; the clear list of recipients does not mean the purpose of the funds is clear. If these three distinctions are squeezed out by the headline, a single asset movement can easily be read as a bearish vote.
When I usually read this kind of breaking news, I deliberately cover the institution's name and read it again. If the conclusion doesn't hold after covering it, my guess is that the judgment includes an amplification effect brought by the reputation. This information is suitable for the watchlist but not enough to draw conclusions for holders. If you were to edit this reminder, would you put "a16z-related" or "purpose unclear" in the most prominent position, and why? On the radar echo, the warm and moist jet stream over the data center has already reached 40 degrees north latitude, but Advanced Micro Devices' Q3 earnings report will only be released after the U.S. stock market closes — this is not a clear day, but the calm before the cumulonimbus cloud passes overhead. Data center revenue in Q2 surged 107% year-over-year, like a highly efficient convective outbreak of precipitation; however, the market is now focused not on how heavy the rain was, but on whether the two new convective cells—Instinct AI acceleration chips and Helios rack-scale systems—can convert cloud providers' deployment demand from water vapor flux into actual revenue in the rain gauge.
Cloud providers' capital expenditure is the upstream water vapor transport, rack-scale system delivery is the condensation process, and revenue recognition is the ground rain gauge reading. No matter how thick the order backlog is, if it gets stuck in the inversion layer of delivery, acceptance, and gross margin, it may look bright red on the radar but only be high clouds with little sunlight in the financial report. The Q3 post-market release naturally has low visibility; the post-market wind shear will amplify any marginal changes in data center growth into a downburst; the market first trades on expectations, then waits for the pressure gradient from the earnings call to give direction.
Looking at the linkage of this tokenized target XAMZN, it is not the same thunderstorm cell but more like a sea-land breeze circulation: when cloud providers' computing demand expands, the chip supply chain and cloud business expectations resonate in sync; but once wind shear increases, this correlation quickly shifts after hours. If Helios can convert rack-scale deployments into visible revenue, the data center business will maintain strong convection; if there are only order clouds without revenue precipitation, even a strong warm and moist airflow is just latent heat release. My professional judgment: if Q3 data center cannot translate deployment demand into measurable revenue, this cumulonimbus cloud is a bloated thunderstorm cell that will dissipate with any wind shear. #amdq3heliosrevenue$ETH – Long-Term Bullish, But Short-Term Pressure Is Building To be clear, I remain bullish on major cryptocurrencies over the long term. However, in the current market environment, short-term conditions deserve more attention. Right now, $ETH appears to be caught in a battle between institutional buyers and sellers. BlackRock has continued to face selling pressure, while Fidelity had been stepping in to accumulate ETH at lower prices. However, yesterday's data showed that Fidelity's buying ac$SNDK SanDisk has completely crashed, yesterday the 1320-1350 resistance zone was directly broken, even 1200 was breached.
Alang thought it over himself, it's not surprising to fall like this: the better the performance, the better the timing to sell. The previous huge gains and high expectations made the earnings report release a perfect window for big players to unload, and concentrated selling was unstoppable.
Plus, with the AI concept collectively fading, the market started doubting the investment returns of the AI sector, and SanDisk, bearing the reputation of a "shovel seller," couldn't hold up either. Funds are flowing into energy stocks with higher certainty; as that side strengthens, fewer people are willing to catch the fall here.
So Alang's own judgment is: the trend has turned bad, don't rush to bottom-fish. In terms of operation, wait for a rebound near 1180-1200, and when the upward momentum clearly weakens, short accordingly, with targets first to break 1150, then look down to 1120.
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 US stocks plummeted, A-shares plummeted
Intel and Google plummeted
The panic index surged
Historically, there have only been 3 VIX gaps that were not filled, on April 14, 2025, April 8, 2026, and yesterday's gap
Historical data shows the probability of filling the gap within 180 trading days is about 97%
I started bottom-fishing US stock indexes, buying more as they fall, only buying spot, no leverage, but I avoid A-shares [Binance Incident Day Three: The Cat-and-Mouse Game Enters a Critical Phase, Regulatory Reactions Begin to Ferment]
On October 30 (Friday, US), the $6.3 billion security incident at Binance entered its third day. The focus of the event shifted from "what happened" to "how much can be recovered" and "what consequences it will trigger."
Details of the offense and defense battle are becoming richer. According to Cointelegraph's investigation, hackers rushed to act before various freezes took effect, converting a large amount of stablecoins— which could be frozen by issuers—into Bitcoin and Ethereum, because the latter have no issuers and technically cannot be "frozen." This "stablecoin-to-major-coin" speed race directly determines the final recoverable proportion: funds remaining in stablecoin form are highly likely to be frozen and returned, while the portion converted into BTC/ETH enters a lengthy on-chain tracking process. The Block's in-depth investigation points to the attack path: the hot wallet's signature infrastructure was compromised, which corroborates Binance's claim of "engineers' laptops being hacked," but blockchain security company Blockaid's suspicion that it was "private key misuse rather than external theft" has not been ruled out.
Political and regulatory aspects are beginning to ferment. US President Trump publicly stated he is monitoring the hacking incident, and the US Congress's calls for improved crypto industry legislation have clearly increased after the event—every major industry-level security incident eventually turns into an agenda item for lawmakers. Historical patterns are worth remembering: rules often emerge after crises.
The market shows intriguing divergence. Bitcoin fell only about 4% on Friday—compared to double-digit drops in similar events in previous cycles, this reaction is considered restrained. CNBC attributes this to structural buying from spot ETFs and the issuer's rapid freezing; however, crypto-related stocks did not hold up, with Coinbase leading the decline, and companies like Circle and Strategy also seeing stock price drops— the stock market expressed real concerns about "tighter regulation + rising industry trust costs."
Three things to watch over the weekend: the progress of the hacker wallet's coin swaps, announcements on Binance's withdrawal resumption, and statements from regulatory agencies worldwide. The incident is far from over, and its ultimate form (whether a catalyst for industry consolidation or a turning point for the self-custody wave) may be decided within the next two weeks.The Supreme Procuratorate disclosed a U Coin fraud case involving 1.2 million yuan. The real weight in the headline is not the amount, but the latter half: virtual currency transactions are not within the regulatory scope of contract fraud.
In everyday language, this means if you get scammed while trading crypto, suing in court as a contract dispute to recover principal plus penalty is basically a dead end. Buying and selling virtual currency is not regarded as a contractual relationship, so the case won't even get filed, forcing reliance on fraud or collusion charges, which are harder to prove.
It's clearer when you look at the market. When you place a buy order for $BTC or swap $ETH for $USDT, no party guarantees the money. There is no customer service on the blockchain, nor a seven-day no-questions-asked refund. Once the address transfers out, ownership is completely transferred—this is by design and also the most despairing part for victims.
The signal from such rulings is simple: protection only extends to the few seconds before you hit confirm. Is the other party really who they claim? Has the recipient address been replaced via clipboard? Who backs that 30% annualized promise? Is there third-party custody in internal channels? Asking these questions is more useful than hiring ten lawyers afterward.
Don't pin your hopes on asset recovery either. Cross-border, coin mixing, multiple transfers—recovery rates have always been dismal. Experienced players are willing to spend where it counts: hardware wallets, multisig, whitelisted addresses, and small test transfers first.
$USDT is not cash; it's more like a statement sent out that can't be taken back.$725 million USD, this is the total net asset value of the ZEC spot ETF in the material, and also the input I most want to keep for this code review. The news says that the combined net outflow of XRP and ZEC spot ETFs on the day mainly came from ZEC.
My judgment: The short-term liquidity of $ZEC is relatively weak, but directly translating it as "trend deterioration" is not logically sound yet. Net outflow should be viewed in the context of asset scale; the same withdrawal amount puts different pressure on products of different sizes. Another bug is that net asset value is also affected by coin price changes, so its decline cannot be entirely counted as capital withdrawal.
💻 If I were to revise this judgment logic, I would consider the proportion of outflow relative to asset scale and whether the outflow continues afterward, rather than drawing conclusions based on one day's data. I will focus on sustainability next and not let the headline make the judgment for me yet. "Smart Money Blogger Weekly Review" Issue 9 · Crypto Circle Director: He gave a price that could be entered, 546 more in 14 days
On the morning of October 27, the director dropped a sentence in the channel: ETH was given at 2345, this 2343.96, who sniped it. The price point he gave was actually just 1 dollar off the actual transaction, and he still had to ask in the group. Honestly, being able to calculate the price point to within 1 dollar means this order was given very precisely.
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This person's habit of giving prices is like this. He sets the position first, whether the price comes or not is up to the market.
In the past two weeks, he gave 25 orders, most of which were waited for, and the price really reached near the line he drew, about eight out of ten. For those that didn't reach, they weren't far off either, the closest missed by 25 points, the accuracy is very impressive. Simulated with 10,000, after two weeks, there was a gain of 546. Out of 18 settled orders, 9 won, a win rate of exactly half.
Where he is truly stable is in how he writes stop losses. All are based on 15-minute closing price breaking down, hourly level holding steady, only closing beyond the boundary counts as a break, spikes don't count. According to his rule, 9 out of 18 orders won. To be honest, this rule is more rigorous than most bloggers, he really studied how to avoid being stopped out. BTC dropped from 81,000 to 77,000 this week, with the Federal Reserve holding steady but pushing the December rate hike expectations to 85%. The same high-interest-rate logic is pressuring both ends.
On the crypto side, Strategy hasn't added positions this week, ETF funds are flowing in and out, the 80,000 level is repeatedly changing hands, and the short-term focus is on whether the 75,000 support holds.
On the US stock side, the Nasdaq plunged 1.38% on Thursday, with Google, Intel, and Amazon diving after earnings reports. The AI narrative is shifting from unlimited investment to questioning returns.
I now believe more in the line of higher interest rates lasting longer. BTC retaking 80,000 and Nasdaq holding above 26,000 are two key switches to watch.
Both sides are still fluctuating within the same macro environment; whichever side holds up first is the one to watch, no rush to call a direction.
$BTC $NVDA $QQQ #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 I bet No, and the underlying logic behind this judgment is not that the financial report is bad; on the contrary, the financial data is very strong. First, the AI storage theme had already experienced a big rally before the financial report, so the positive news was largely priced in by the market, turning the good news into bad news upon realization. Second, although the current revenue and orders are outstanding, storage is a cyclical sector. The market will prioritize pricing future supply an"Smart Money Blogger Weekly Review" Issue 8 · BOJAN: He admitted that both short positions in two days were stopped out, but he still posted a new map the next day
On October 26, BOJAN wrote a truthful sentence in the first paragraph of his daily report: Both short orders on Friday triggered stop losses. The next day, he still posted a new one on time, first reviewing the past, then marking positions.
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BOJAN has a habit: around 2:30 PM every day, he posts a pre-market analysis, first admitting yesterday's mistakes, then giving two paths for today—one main choice and one alternative—finally narrowing down to 3 to 5 price levels. I summarized the positions he posted over the past two weeks; guess how many prices actually reached near the lines he drew? Out of 32 positions, 18 were reached, more than half. Within 12 hours after reaching, 9 moved in the direction he indicated.
What he provides is not trade orders but a map—marking where support and resistance might be, giving direction to those without a clear path, and every position is backed by evidence. So he doesn't show "how much profit was made after following for two weeks" because he doesn't provide orders with stop loss or take profit.
But each price level is not drawn casually; each is anchored by a volume point: yesterday's high, weekly open price, or the densest volume segment. Then he clearly states what to do at that point—wait for someone to take the position, only enter after that. He even specifically writes, "These are planned areas, not signals."一根深夜还在盈利的仓位，天亮前却变成强制平仓，问题往往不在方向，而在杠杆。$ETH 昨天在2305一带还有买盘承接，$ZEC 在1238附近进场，$BTC 在79800一线布局——这套组合在午夜前一度浮盈高达600%，但随后价格不是回调，而是直接转跌，一小时内触发止损，今晨亏损落袋。 真正值得拆解的，是这段过程里的心理路径：起初计划让利润继续奔跑，回调时反而加仓，直到确认“这不是回调”才砍仓。这不是判断失误，而是把高杠杆仓位当成了低波动持仓来管理。当仓位规模远超承受力，任何一次正常波动都会被放大成生死线。 最刺眼的数据来自$ETH：在2240和2210分批挂单买入，最终全部成交，清算价落在2179，而当日最低触及2170，止损单挂在2180——价格精准穿过止损与清算之间的窄缝。这不是运气问题，而是杠杆把容错空间压缩到了几个点位。$ZEC 此前600%的浮盈，也在同一波下跌中回吐。 更值得警惕的是市场结构信号：昨天大量买盘在低位被吸引进场，今天却没能延续上涨，反而出现诱多后的回落。周五这个时间窗口，流动性本就偏薄，多头拥挤的仓位一旦松动，踩踏会比预期更快。$BTC 从79800回落，$E"Smart Money Blogger Weekly Review" Issue 7 --- Brother Feng
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On the night of October 20th, Brother Feng said in the group: This trade was stuck all day; to avoid prolonged uncertainty, exiting is the best choice. That day, he didn't wait for take profit or stop loss, he just pulled out directly. Those who followed him didn't lose a cent.
This is his most valuable trait. From September 27th to October 27th, he gave 17 trade signals, all 17 were entered successfully, never missing a reachable position. Of the 15 closed trades, 9 were wins and 6 losses, a 60% win rate, with the longest losing streak only 3 trades. He still holds 3 trades open.
The problem lies elsewhere. Starting with 10,000 yuan, the final amount is 9,777 yuan, down 223 yuan, basically breaking even. Despite a 60% win rate, the account hasn't grown.
It's stuck on the odds. He gains an average of only 0.49 times per winning trade but loses a full 1 time per losing trade; it takes 2 wins to cover 1 loss. Because he exits early, 70% of the profit is secured, and the stop loss is pushed to the break-even point. This approach makes the win rate look good but cuts off profits.
But don't rush to conclusions. All 17 trade calls were executed, which is rare in this industry. $BTC #加密行业协同守护资产安全 $AKE is not recommended to catch; this is purely "licking the blade."
Why is it falling?
The main reason is market makers dumping. On-chain data shows that AKE's market makers have recently continuously transferred over $2.2 million worth of tokens to Binance Alpha and sold them, directly causing a flash crash of 33%. Coupled with the retreat of the new coin's initial premium, the price has pulled back over 83% from its historical high, representing a typical profit-taking stampede and liquidity vacuum. Market makers still hold about $800 million worth of tokens on-chain, accounting for more than 54% of the circulating supply, so selling pressure is far from over.
Technical aspect
On the 15-minute chart, the price has fallen below the lower Bollinger Band (0.01149), hitting a low of 0.01148. Although KDJ is at a low level (K=5.9, D=8.4), there is no stable golden cross signal, indicating a weak dulling after a one-sided waterfall drop rather than an oversold reversal.
Strategy
Do not reach out. Market makers have extremely low holding costs, and the current price still yields huge profits for them, so selling pressure can come again at any time. If you really want to speculate, wait for one of two signals: a volume-backed recovery and stabilization above 0.013, or a clear support test around 0.010. Until then, watching the show is safer than bottom fishing. Position size must be controlled within 5%, and stop-loss must be strict. #AKE #catchingtheknife.$BTC just hit a new low, and the Federal Reserve is calling for two more hikes—I trust the data, not the talk
Last night $BTC just dropped to a new low of 76260, and before it could recover, three Fed officials lined up to hawkishly speak out.
Let's look at the facts. At Wednesday's rate-setting meeting, the rate was held steady at 3.75% to 4%, with two members dissenting, wanting a hike. On Friday, Logan said: at least two more hikes of 25 basis points each; Musalem was even more urgent, saying tightening needs to happen quickly. Their confidence is based on data: September core PCE year-over-year at 3.1%, a four-month high, inflation is sticky.
But the market wasn't scared: the probability of a December hike actually dropped from 84% to around 75%, showing a rare disconnect between officials' talk and market money. I bet the market is looking at something else: September nonfarm payrolls only added 29,000 jobs, showing cooling employment. The hawkish talk is mostly about managing expectations; the real make-or-break will be the November 6 nonfarm payrolls and the December 8-9 meeting.
As for my own plan this morning: $BTC rebounds to around 77900 to wait for a short, no bottom-fishing. Until this rate hike knife lands, I'd rather be a bit late.
All of the above is my own market sense and plan, not investment advice.
Which side are you betting on: will December see this 25 basis point hike, or not? #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 [0.2% Transaction Tax Nearly Forced DeFi Into Traditional Brokerage]
$UNI swap, a16z, and the DeFi Education Fund jointly filed an objection with the Illinois Department of Revenue, targeting a 0.2% digital asset tax. According to the regulation, the tax rate is calculated based on the value of assets involved in the transaction, not the platform's fee, and was originally set to take effect on January 1, 2027.
The draft may require DEXs to undertake obligations such as identifying users, determining their location, calculating taxes, and reporting, even involving private key records. The problem is that protocols like Uniswap typically do not custody user assets and do not know who is behind the wallets. Forcing the compliance framework of traditional brokerages could ultimately push front-end platforms out of the local market, driving users to other platforms.
This dispute is no longer just about paying less tax: the industry also demands clear exclusion of users' own wallet transfers and cross-chain operations to avoid taxing assets simply moved to another location. Currently, industry groups are also challenging this law in court, with the implementation date postponed to July 2027. What truly deserves attention this time is whether U.S. regulators are willing to acknowledge that software running smart contracts is not equivalent to a financial intermediary managing money on behalf of users.