Orbit Post Sitemap

10.29 Midnight Gold Outlook Tonight, focus on the US Core PCE inflation data, which is the Federal Reserve's most important inflation indicator. It will directly influence market expectations for rate cuts and is the biggest variable in the midnight session. If the data exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations will cool down, putting downward pressure on gold prices; if inflation falls, it will be favorable for a gold rebound. Market volatility will sharply increase before and after the data release, with frequent shakeouts, so avoid heavy positions betting on a single direction. Market Analysis: Gold prices surged to 4082 yesterday, but the bulls lacked follow-through momentum, gradually oscillating downward during the day. The short-term trend shifted from strong to weak, currently in a high-level oscillation adjustment phase. Key Levels Resistance: 4065, 4080 Support: 4015, 4000 Trading Suggestions Sell short when the rebound meets resistance in the 4045-4065 range; initial target is 4030, breaking below that looks toward 4020 and 4000. If it stabilizes in the 4010-4020 pullback zone, consider buying long; targets are 4040 and 4060, with a break above 4080. $XAU $BTC Last night this surge pushed above 81,000. I just checked the 15-minute RSI. The reading dropped from the previous 77 down to 65. Although the price is still holding at a high level, the indicator reading has dropped significantly. Short-term buying momentum hasn't kept up with the price. Taking a look at the daily RSI gave me a jolt. The daily RSI just climbed back near 50, still hovering in the neutral zone. A few days ago, when the price rose, the daily RSI actually dropped from 50 to 47. There's a bearish divergence on the daily chart; the long-term momentum hasn't strengthened. The position on the daily chart is very critical. The current price has just reached the daily resistance level above 81,000. Several EMAs on the 4-hour chart are diverging downward and still hovering above. After consecutive short-term rallies, the price has hit a heavy resistance zone. Previous attempts to hold this level failed. I tend to expect weakness. The daily resistance is right above, and the daily RSI still shows bearish divergence. Without large volume pushing upward, it's likely to be blocked and pull back first, then revisit to confirm the support around 81,000. $ETH $SOL #Anthropic招股书引发争议，算力承诺受质疑 Microsoft: Whether AI investment can pay off depends on cash returns. Microsoft's FY27 Q1 revenue was $92.3 billion, with operating profit up 21% year-over-year. JPMorgan Chase maintains an overweight rating, setting a December 2027 target price of $625, based on about 24 times the 2028 projected P/E ratio. My judgment: Whether the valuation can rise further depends on whether Azure's growth can be realized alongside improvements in free cash flow. If capital expenditures accelerate and consume cash flow, revenue growth alone will not be enough to support a higher valuation. $MSFT Source: Gangtise | JPMorgan Chase FY1Q review summary, entered on 2026-10-29, original publication date pending verification; financial data available at [Microsoft October 28 announcement](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2027-q1/press-release-webcast).$ETH has dropped more than 10% this month, grinding down to around 2350. At least Bitcoin still has buyers; Ethereum really has no one caring for it. The most heartbreaking part is the ETF money. Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows for three consecutive days, turning positive in October. Ethereum ETFs had a slight outflow yesterday, with a total net outflow of $1.35 billion in October. The same group of institutions is buying Bitcoin without hesitation, but continuously moving Ethereum out. Retail investors aren’t selling off so neatly; I’m more inclined to believe it’s big money reallocating. I have some ETH in my cold wallet, holding long-term. At times like this, I neither add nor move. Last week’s dip to 2280 was considered a bottom; if it falls below that again, don’t rush to call it a bottom. Do you think ETH is being unfairly punished, or should it naturally give way to Bitcoin? $ETH $BTC $SOL #ETHFallingBehind The overall environment sets the tone, amplifying volatility in small-cap coins. On October 29, Bitcoin's monthly chart weakened, spot demand has been negative for consecutive days, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates with internal disagreements on rate hikes, and market liquidity expectations are tightening. $DOS formed a stage top around 0.319, breaking down after volume-price divergence. I chose to short 20x at this time, leveraging the macro tailwind to capture the small coin's catch-up decline. The price dropped to 0.1934, yielding +787.46%, perfectly fulfilling the logic. Looking ahead, if $BTC falls below 79,000, DOS may test the 0.15 support; even if it rebounds, the 0.23-0.25 dense trading zone will become strong resistance, and the bearish trend remains unchanged. $ETH #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #Strategi Pratinjau Laporan Keuangan: Keuntungan Buku BTC Melonjak Tajam Strategy’s Q3 report highlights major BTC gains, with a focus on financing strategy, capital allocation, and long-term Bitcoin accumulation.$BTC #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 This ZEC trade with 50x leverage gained 329 points, the timing was just right. Recently, privacy coins have started to surge from low levels, with clear capital rotation. After consecutive bullish K-lines, the price closed with upper shadows at high levels, moving averages are widely diverged, indicators show overbought conditions warning of a top divergence, and the bulls and bears are increasingly divided. Professional logic: Triple floating profits suffer the most from pullbacks. Move the base position up to break even and cut losses, lock in profits on the main portion without greed for the tail segment. Run on low volume and release volume, shift focus from offense to defense, wait for a pullback to support before evaluating the second wave. Enjoy the gains quietly, control your actions at high levels with independent judgment, patiently wait for the next rhythm, do not follow blindly. $SNDK #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #Financial Report Forecast Strategy: BTC's Book Profit Surges Back Strongly They still rate $COIN as Stronger than the market, however, they have lowered the target to $250 from $330 and cut 2026 revenue by 32% to $5.5B They believe this is due to Q3 spot trading volume seemingly stuck near $150 billion, with stablecoins making up the majority So why remain optimistic? The market expects combined spot and derivatives revenue to reach $2 billion by 2028, up from $600 million earlier this year Hawkish stance and options expiry squeeze put three major cryptocurrencies on the brink The current market is extremely fragmented. The FOMC kept rates unchanged but the probability of a December rate hike surged to 86%; today, $11 billion worth of BTC options expire, accounting for one-third of Deribit's total. With the November 3 midterm elections approaching, sellers' cautious stance may cause volatility buffers to disappear after tonight. $BTC: Currently at $81,360, with a monthly return of -4.2%. The 85,000 level is a resistance, and long leverage near 80,000 has been cleared. After tonight's expiry, if the 78,000-79,000 support breaks, a faster decline will follow, with resistance at 81,500-82,000. $ETH: Currently at $2,357, breaking below the June ascending channel. The 2,300-2,315 zone gathers triple support from the 200-day EMA, on-chain data, and whale cost bases. October ETF outflows reached $1.32 billion, and whales hold dense long positions between 2,286-2,299; a break below may trigger a chain liquidation. $SOL: Currently at $102, repeatedly contesting the 100 level. October ETF outflows neared $100 million, with institutions turning net sellers. Technically forming a head and shoulders pattern, 100 is the neckline; if daily closes confirm a break below, 80 is the next level to watch. Summary: Macro pressure, options expiry, and election uncertainty overlap, potentially amplifying volatility after settlement. BTC at 80,000, ETH at 2,300-2,315, and SOL at 100 are short-term lifelines; holding them maintains consolidation, while breaking opens room for a pullback. #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 #تقرير Pre-Earnings Strategy: Realized BTC Revenues Surge Significantly News from BlockBeats, on October 30, the Strategy Earnings Report for Q3 is about to be released, and its perpetual preferred shares STRC rose for the first time in 165 days to $99.95.$NEAR $NEAR NEAR's buying pressure these days is like a bottomless pit. Every time the bears try to push down, the orders at the bottom just swallow them up. The trading volume jumped from the usual tens of millions straight to over ninety million, clearly showing that funds are blindly scooping up. Check out the HSP-029 proposal, and you'll see that the current vote aims to cut the annual issuance from 2.5% directly down to 1.6%, effectively changing the medium- to long-term supply and demand fundamentals. No wonder the support at this level is so strong; big players are all betting on the production cut passing. #NEAR $NEAR 👇*$ETH TOP?* 5 waves up done. Price higher high, RSI lower high = Bear div. Next: Big correction Wave A/1, then Wave C/3 up. Low not in yet - wait for confirmation. #ETH$DOGE has touched 0.081 twice near 0.079, but both times it was directly pushed back down, with 4-hour volume as dry as if the market hadn't opened. What's more frustrating is that there hasn't been any significant liquidation this month; the price has been slowly declining by about 0.0018 daily, gradually wearing people down, and those trapped at high levels can't even place stop-loss orders. This slight volumeless pull-up now looks more like the main force using the rebound to sell, with weak support below. The longer the low-volume sideways consolidation drags on, the more you have to watch out for a sudden sharp drop. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $DOGE 👇#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Reasons for exceeding expectations 1. USDC circulation expands beyond expectations, reserve interest income is highly elastic The core revenue source of CRCL is the interest from USDC reserves invested in short-term debt. If the new USDC minting scale this quarter is significantly higher than analysts' assumptions, the total circulation will rise. Under the environment of sustained high U.S. Treasury yields, reserve interest income will directly surpass expectations, boosting EPS. USDC demand is rapidly increasing in institutional cross-border settlement and AI agent on-chain payment scenarios, making the incremental volume easily exceed model forecasts. 2. Federal trust license obtained, institutional clients increasing CRCL has obtained OCC federal trust bank qualification and is deepening cooperation with large institutions like BNY Mellon and BlackRock. The inflow of institutional funds using USDC and the growth in custody business are increments that many analyst models conservatively estimate or do not fully price in. The USDC deposits brought by institutional funds are an additional surprise. 3. Arc public chain ecosystem launched, new revenue realized The Arc mainnet is live, and paid solutions for enterprise clients focused on AI Agents and RWA asset tokenization are starting to be implemented. The mainstream market expectation only gives a very low revenue estimate for Arc. If enterprise subscriptions and developer service fees are realized early, it will become additional incremental revenue, directly exceeding expectations. BTC experienced a corrective rebound today, with the price rising from a low of $79,496 back above $81,000, and short-term sentiment slightly warming. Meanwhile, U.S. tech stocks continued their strength, with risk appetite marginally improving, but the reaction in crypto assets remains hesitant. Notably, the Nasdaq rose 1.18% in the previous trading session, and the semiconductor sector continued to strengthen, yet BTC failed to expand its gains in sync, still fluctuating around the $80,000 level. This divergence indicates insufficient willingness of funds to chase prices in the crypto market, and the rebound appears more like a technical repair after an oversell. I am still watching the $84,000 level, but the premise is that $82,000 can be effectively reclaimed and held. If incremental buying is not seen over several consecutive trading days, a single-day rebound will be difficult to convert into a trend, and the upside space will be limited. Currently, more attention should be paid to volume and support on pullbacks, rather than being driven by short-term rallies in sentiment. Only with sustained buying can BTC hope to open further upward space. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ CRCL (Circle) Core Reasons for Outperformance (Suitable for Predictive Trading Yes Use) 1. USDC Circulation Expands Beyond Expectations, Reserve Interest Income Highly Elastic The core revenue source for CRCL is the interest from USDC reserves invested in short-term debt. If the new USDC minting scale this quarter significantly exceeds analyst assumptions, the total circulation will rise. With U.S. Treasury yields remaining high, reserve interest income will directly surpass expectations, boosting EPS. USDC demand is rapidly increasing in institutional cross-border settlements and AI agent on-chain payment scenarios, making incremental growth likely to exceed model forecasts. 2. Federal Trust License Secured, Institutional Clients Scaling Up CRCL has obtained OCC federal trust bank qualification and is deepening cooperation with large institutions like BNY Mellon and BlackRock. The inflow of institutional funds using USDC and custody services represents incremental growth that many analyst models conservatively estimate or do not fully price in. The USDC volume deposited by institutional funds is an additional surprise factor. 3. Arc Public Chain Ecosystem Launch, New Revenue Realization The Arc mainnet is live, with paid solutions for enterprise clients focused on AI Agents and RWA asset tokenization starting to take effect. Market mainstream expectations assign very low revenue estimates for Arc; if enterprise subscriptions and developer service fees are realized early, this will become extra incremental income, directly exceeding expectations. *WHALE DROPS $79M PRE-FOMC 🚨* Betting on pump: $72.5M $BTC long + $6.2M $ZEC long Up ∼$1M unrealized. #BTC #ZECThe Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, but the divided vote suggests that inflation risks remain a concern. Recent BTC ETF inflows have added another layer to the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers. 📊 Key BTC Levels 🔺 Resistance: $80,800–$82,000 🔻 Support: $79,000–$78,000 📉 Market Outlook Over the next 24–72 hours, BTC may remain volatile with a bearish bias. Tonight’s US GDP and PCE inflation data could determine the next directional move. • Below $79,000: So far, the number of companies opposing OKXICE tokenized stocks with $OKB has risen to 38 companies out of a total of 63 companies. As of today, 25 companies remain, but the opposition continues to increase. Today, Hype had a huge positive news surge, violently pushing the price up. Some KOLs stopped being bearish and started posting aggressively, claiming $OKB is a super big positive and even saying it will soon become the number one in the universe. These kinds of posts are typical scams to get people to buy in. All for traffic with no bottom line! #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 The new CEO's first earnings report, with the company's own upper limit 1.1 percentage points lower than the market expectation. ▪️ Q4 earnings released after market close on November 2, covering June 28 to September 26, the first report since Turner's takeover on September 1. ▪️ Company guidance year-over-year +9% to +11%, corresponding to $111.69 billion to $113.74 billion. ▪️ Some institutions expect about +12.1%, 1.1 percentage points higher than the guidance upper limit. ▪️ Goldman Sachs gives $113.598 billion, an 11% increase, within the upper end of guidance; EPS $2.01 vs consensus $1.99. ▪️ iPhone 18 Pro sales only counted for about two weeks; holiday season guidance is the real demand test. ▪️ The impact of rising storage chip costs and price increases on gross margin is the second variable this quarter. ▪️ Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating, raising the 12-month target price to $390. ▪️ Cook transitions to Executive Chairman of the Board; the conference call is hosted by Turner for the first time.#Strategy Earnings Preview: BTC Book Profits Rebound Sharply Tonight’s 8:30 PCE report could shape BTC’s direction over the coming weeks. I’ve laid out the full roadmap in a longer article, but here are the key points. The Fed held rates steady last night, but the 10–2 vote revealed a divided committee, with two members favoring a hike. Meanwhile, the probability of a December rate hike has reportedly climbed from 36% to 78% over the past month. PPI inflation is already at 6.35% year over year, and tonight’s PCE forecast is 3.6%. My expectation is a 60–70A massive +18% breakout has shattered the resistance! With the highest daily volume on the board, momentum is explosive. If buyers hold the $HYPE 95 support, a retest of the $100 psychological barrier is imminent. Question: Will HYPE reclaim $100 this week, or is this a fakeout pump?#US September Core PCE rises to 3.1%, rate hike expectations remain high Core PCE data rebounds, directly reigniting market concerns about further rate hikes. BTC quickly surged from the low of 79666, peaked at 81944, then pulled back, currently oscillating around 81278; ETH strengthened in sync, bottoming at 2292, surging to 2391, now priced at 2355. After a volume surge rebound on the hourly chart, profit-taking by bulls caused the price to retreat. Inflation data did not ease but instead rose, breaking the market's brief relief. Even though the previous FOMC kept rates unchanged, this inflation data means the Fed is unlikely to quickly shift to easing, and the probability of a rate hike option in December has risen again. This rebound is a recovery after an oversell, not a trend reversal. The resistance in the previous high area above is heavy; if inflation expectations continue to ferment, the market is likely to come under pressure again. In the short term, it is important to observe whether this rebound can hold above the moving average. $BTC $ETH #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 Revenue hit a new high, cloud business doubled, but free cash flow was negative $9.07 billion. ▪️ Revenue $127.577 billion, up 25% year-over-year, $623 million below expectations, missing by 0.49%; search ads underperformed expectations. ▪️ Diluted EPS $2.12, expected $3.02, missing by $0.90; net profit $26.17 billion, down 34% year-over-year. ▪️ Quarterly equity investment book loss of $8.66 billion, mainly from SpaceX; the same holdings contributed $99.03 billion in Q2. ▪️ Free cash flow negative $9.07 billion, second consecutive quarter in the red. ▪️ Cloud business revenue doubled year-over-year, the only segment to do so. ▪️ Full-year capital expenditure guidance $195 billion to $205 billion, with 2027 guidance exceeding $300 billion, about 50% more. ▪️ In the same week, Microsoft Cloud $63.9 billion, Azure up 48%, free cash flow shortfall $27.7 billion. ▪️ After-hours $293.09, down 9.79%, market cap evaporated over $300 billion.Woke up in the middle of the night, and BTC quietly surged by a thousand dollars At 12:40 AM, if you opened your phone now, you'd probably be stunned. BTC $BTC at 81,200, ETH $ETH at 2,353, quietly climbing over a thousand dollars from where it was last night during the sideways trading. No big bullish candle, no volume spike, just quietly creeping up while you were dozing off. You probably had that thought again: after so long of sideways movement, it finally moved, should I chase? Hold on. Look at where it climbed to. BTC at 81,200, with 50 million+ short positions stacked at 82,600 and 83,000, just waiting for the price to hit; ETH at 2,353, with resistance at 2,423 and 2,435. Chasing now is like lining up at their door to get served. I’ve noticed a pattern: the more these late-night, unnoticed surges happen, the more cautious you should be. If it’s a real breakout, it will boldly surge for everyone to see, making it impossible for you to chase; the sneaky climbs are mostly traps for people like you who wake up to a bullish candle and react faster than your brain. I haven’t moved my short positions; if 82,600 doesn’t break, I’ll just pretend this surge never happened. If you’re really tired, just sleep; check again when you wake up. Don’t make decisions under the covers. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $ZEC main holders still refuse to sell, it seems they want to wait until the upgrade is implemented. Before the upgrade lands, there might be a short squeeze rally pushing to new highs.A textbook V-shaped recovery from $BNB 705! BNB is steadily climbing, looking to flip the 20-day MA into support. Despite today's minor dip, the 90-day trend remains hugely positive (+27%). Question: Will BNB push back toward $770 resistance in the next few days? *$ETH - 5 WAVES DONE?* 5-wave up looks complete. Top divergence confirmed: Price = higher highs, RSI = lower highs. Momentum faded at top. What’s next? Likely a bigger Wave A / Wave 1 correction brewing. After this flush → High odds of Wave C / Wave 3 up. But low not confirmed yet. Don’t front-run. Let market show its hand first. #ETH #BTCThe two days when the crops surged the most, the old-timers instead sharpened their sickles first—$ACH short-term RSI has already climbed to 65.1, and the price is standing outside the upper Bollinger Band. This isn’t a bumper harvest; it’s the vines climbing over the trellis. It rose 2.12% in 24 hours, looking like a heavy rain, but the soil temperature didn’t keep up. Short-term RSI at 65.1 is just a thin layer away from the overbought threshold; long-term RSI is only 41.7, still in the soil recovery phase, roots not deep yet. What’s the biggest fear for this kind of seedling condition? A late spring cold snap—top shoots grow fast, but the base is weak, and a gust of wind will knock it down. The short-term Bollinger Band position is already at 114%, 0.3% above the upper band, meaning the seedlings have pierced through the greenhouse film; the mid-term position is 72%, just 1.3% below the upper band and 3.5% above the lower band moisture trough. There’s not much room to go up, but there’s three feet of open space below. So I won’t chase this position. Chasing highs is like planting seeds before the dew dries—seeds sown then will rot. Wait for it to pull back 1.8% above the current price to that ridge top, let the ears of grain settle and the wind calm, then start cutting short. This is the old rule: don’t sell grain when the seedlings are green; act when the ears turn yellow. 📉 Short: Entry: 1.8% above current price (wait for pullback to ridge top before cutting) Take Profit 1: 4.7% below current price (harvest the first crop into storage) Take Profit 2: 3.4% below current price (second crop depends on weather, secure the bag) Stop Loss: 11.2% above current price (build a wider dam; if breached, exit—don’t fight the weather) This stop loss at 11.2% means the dam is wide, but also indicates unstable water conditions in this field. A wide dam means planting sparsely—keep position size small, don’t bet the whole season’s food supply on one ridge. First take profit looks at the deep well at 4.7%, then the shallow moisture at 3.4%; take two cuts, harvest whatever you get, don’t be greedy for the last ear. I’m playing the mid-to-long term game, not rushing to the market. Long-term RSI at 41.7 shows the field hasn’t reached its peak growth period; this little greening now can’t be counted as a bumper harvest. The real yield comes around frost descent, when soil fertility is fully restored and the grain weighs heavy. Cutting green seedlings hastily during the ear emergence period will leave the drying yard full of empty husks. For this ridge, I’m just waiting for the wind to stop and the ears to settle; if moisture conditions aren’t right, I’d rather let the land lie fallow than sow seeds on stones. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC BTC81, 500 is the ETF weighted cost line; a rebound to this level is a zone to relieve selling pressure, not a position to chase more. ETF inflows over three days total 424 million, but 99% come from IBIT, indicating a fragile structure; the probability of a rate hike in December is 82.6%. Do not chase highs; only consider a breakthrough if volume supports a stable hold above 82,300. If it falls below 79,000, look for 77,500.#MetaFinancingTo97.5B 💸 Meta prices $97.5B equity Oct 27: $25B common 40M @ $625 (forward sale to Oct 29 close, settle by Nov 2027), $12.5B 6.5% mandatory convert pref due Aug 2029, + $60B ATM Class C from Q1 2027. Total ∼6% dilution, 5x oversub. Nvidia $3B + AMD $1B + Broadcom $1B strategic = circular finance debate. Q3 rev $64.6B +26%, costs $51.6B, op margin 20% vs 40% YoY, FCF -$2.12B first negative in decade on $34.9B capex. Capex guide $135-145B for AI data centers + Muse. $DOGE DOGE wobbled to the 0.077 level, with significant contradictions in the order book. Retail investors are overly shorting, enduring daily interest losses just to hold on, yet Binance whales' long-short ratio has directly surged to 2.6. Large funds are clearly casting a net underwater to support the price. The funding rate is so negative, yet they keep aggressively selling—do they really think the market makers are doing charity? Just a random throttle push could trigger a stampede. #DOGE $DOGE 👇#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 估计预期Watching the market late at night, $WLD gave a position worth taking. The price previously dipped to a low of 0.4086, then rebounded steadily. Seeing it approach 0.44 again, I started to closely watch the resistance above. The 4-hour chart is still overall weak, with the 10-period and 20-period moving averages around 0.43. Having rebounded to this area, I’m reluctant to chase more longs. Ultimately, I opened a short near 0.4429, and the current floating profit has nearly doubled. Now the 1-hour chart shows signs of a pullback after a rise, but the MACD still maintains red bars, indicating the bulls have not fully exited. So for now, I consider 0.4386 as a short-term observation point, and pay close attention to 0.4296 below. If it rises again and holds above the entry area, the short position will need to be reconsidered. I’ll handle the market as it moves; there’s no need to make definitive statements in advance. $ZEC $PEPE #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 ⚡️ LATEST: Stablecoin transfer volume reached $891 billion in Q3 2026, more than quadrupling since early 2023 as U.S. banks expand adoption, a report commissioned by Coinbase shows.ETF is inactive but prices remain firm, consolidating and waiting for an opportunity I quite agree with CryptoQuant founder's judgment on this wave. This year, the ETF engine has barely turned, with net inflows close to zero since the beginning of the year, yet $BTC has only dropped 7%. Weak ETF demand but prices remain so firm indicates that the probability of OG whales and miners selling off in large quantities is extremely low; those who wanted to sell have sold early, and the chip structure is quite solid. My mid-term view: now is the time to consolidate and wait for an opportunity. Once the uncertainty of the US midterm elections dissipates and ETF inflows resume, bullish momentum will definitely return. Don't be scared by short-term fluctuations; the more retail investors panic at this position, the steadier the main forces are. In terms of operations, after the election shoe drops, Bitcoin is very likely to regain its upward trend, and this position is worth holding. $ETH $ZEC #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 This building called $DOGE has lively blueprints, but the load-bearing structure has long started creaking—rising 5.43% in 24 hours, the price has been forcibly pushed to the 92% position of the Bollinger Bands mid-cycle, with only 0.7% clearance left to the upper band. This is not the eve of a breakout; it’s a typical dangerous building with added upper floors but no foundation piles. I looked at its short-term RSI, 67.9, already clinging to the overbought red line, while the long-term RSI is only 50.3. The slopes of these two time frames don’t match at all—like conflicting elevation marks on architectural drawings. Short-term funds are propping up the facade, but the long-term foundation shows no improvement. The short-term Bollinger Bands price position is 72%, with 2.6% buffer to the lower band, which seems to have some room, but the mid-cycle is already at 92%, with 8.4% gap to the lower band—the divergence between these two time frames, in my eyes, is a sign of structural displacement, not reinforcement, but cracks spreading. The current market price is stuck at $0.07, but my entry point is set at $0.08, 3.4% higher than the current price—why wait to go up? Because I want to see it finish the last segment of the inflated cantilever structure, wait for those chasing the highs to fill the rooftop, and then wait for it to collapse on its own. This is not chasing a long position; it’s shorting from a high place. 📉 Short: Entry: 0.08 (current price +3.4%) Take Profit 1: 0.07 (-4.9%) Take Profit 2: 0.07 (-7.7%) Stop Loss: 0.08 (+14.3%) Take Profit 1 is set 4.9% below the current price, Take Profit 2 is further down by 7.7%—this retracement is structurally called "demolishing the illegally added top floors," returning to the true foundational load-bearing surface. The stop loss is set 14.3% above the entry price, allowing enough margin for construction errors, but once triggered, it means my structural judgment itself should be overturned. From an engineering acceptance perspective, this target’s blueprint (whitepaper) is only a sketch, construction quality (development progress) has long been stuck at the foundation pit stage, and ecological scalability (load-bearing system) relies entirely on community sentiment as infill walls—such a building can be leveraged short-term, but don’t expect it to be topped out long-term. The short-term RSI of 67.9 combined with the mid-cycle Bollinger Bands at 92% is a typical case of "scaffolding higher than the main structure." No matter how fancy the blueprint is, if the foundation can’t bear the load, the acceptance report can only be stamped with a red mark: demolish.In today's market where both $BTC and $ETH surged significantly, this long-short hedged position portfolio showed a very split profit and loss performance, reflecting the current extreme divergence in the crypto market. Short $BTC: Large unrealized profit against the trend This 40x fully leveraged BTC short position recorded an unrealized profit of $945,400 despite BTC's strong rally, and also earned $139,900 in positive funding fees. The opening price was $84,070, and the current price is approaching the liquidation line at $93,567.67, indicating that this BTC rally is nearly touching the forced liquidation threshold for this position. The holder is holding the short position firmly during an extreme uptrend, gaining inverse returns through a large short position, representing a very aggressive counter-trend trading strategy. Long $ETH: Significant unrealized loss despite the rally In contrast to the BTC short, this 25x fully leveraged ETH long position suffered an unrealized loss of $1,259,000 amid ETH's strong rally today, and additionally paid $70,000 in funding fees. Its opening price was $2,500.18, with a liquidation price of only $1,859.3, indicating that the starting point of this ETH rally was well below $2,500. The holder chased the price higher by opening a long position during ETH's surge, but subsequent sharp corrections caused deep unrealized losses, completely mistiming this ETH rally. $HYPE short: Extreme losses on high-leverage altcoin The position with the highest margin ratio is a 5x fully leveraged HYPE short. Although the leverage is the lowest, it has already suffered an unrealized loss of $5,700,000, with positive funding fees of $1,111,500. The opening price was $66.2399, and the liquidation price is $98.68, indicating that HYPE experienced a violent surge far exceeding mainstream coins today, pushing the low-leverage short position to the brink of liquidation. Altcoins have much higher volatility than BTC and ETH, and the risk of shorting altcoins is greatly amplified in a broad rally. Overall, this portfolio is a typical "short mainstream + long mainstream + short altcoin" chaotic hedge. In today's broad rally, only the BTC short position benefited, while the other two positions suffered large losses. The overall account risk exposure has reached an extremely high level, and any further price surge could trigger a chain of liquidations. #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 $BTC is currently trading at about $81,225, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 1.47%. The Fear and Greed Index is at 51, indicating a neutral zone. The most noteworthy aspect is the short liquidation zone overhead. Two Hyperliquid whales collectively hold about $26.52 million in BTC short positions, with liquidation prices concentrated between $80,861 and $80,867, just a step away from the current price. Moreover, the two liquidation prices differ by only $5, with 331 short positions forming a concentrated liquidation zone within an extremely narrow range. A rise of less than 1% could trigger a chain short squeeze. The price has already reached this dangerous level, and the shorts are under pressure. However, the whale community's direction is not unified. Hyperliquid whales tracked by Glassnode have turned net short for the first time since March. Larger leveraged liquidation clusters exist near $85,000 and $87,000 above; if a short squeeze starts, $87,000 is the next target. Below, there is still a key liquidation zone near $79,600. The biggest question remains whether the shorts are betting on a pullback or are being cornered by the rebound. The ETF fund structure is worth watching. There have been net inflows totaling $423.6 million over three consecutive days, but yesterday, out of $137.3 million, $136 million came solely from BlackRock's IBIT, Fidelity's FBTC only $24.5 million, and other issuers almost zero. This is "BlackRock demand," not a broad institutional inflow. Technically, $85,000 is a hard ceiling formed by a dense cost zone of long-term holders, about 4 million BTC.Three tokens are flying together today, with completely different logics $APR 0.05678, Monad testnet nodes were pulled early by funds 🚀 aPriori (renamed Capricorn) does liquid staking + MEV on the Monad public chain, soaring 16.09% today. Raised $10 million, invested by Pantera/ConsenSys/OKX Ventures. Nodes launched on Monad testnet, funds are ambushing early. $BICO 0.01739, account abstraction rose 9.72% today 🔧 Biconomy helps users use on-chain products without remembering mnemonics, up 9.72% today, with a volume of 12.08 million. The direction is right but no breakout app has arrived yet; today's big bullish candle is either someone pulling or a real app integration, still needs observation. $ENA 0.21129, interest-bearing coin bounced 7.69% 🌾 Ethena’s USDe collateralized short-term US Treasury interest-bearing, PCE rose to 3.1% with higher rate hike expectations, but it rose 7.69% today instead. With high interest rates lasting longer, yields on interest-bearing stablecoins become more attractive. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. HYPE LIQUID PERPETUAL TRADE SELL SETUP Short from $96 Currently $96 Targeting $86.50 or Down (Trading plan IF HYPE go up to $103 will add more shorts) Its not a Financial advice $HYPE $BTC $ETH U.S. stocks stumbled last night, but crypto didn't break this leg. Alphabet closed at 285.12 on 10-29, down 12.2% from 324.89 the previous day. CNBC on 10-29 called this its largest single-day post-earnings drop ever, wiping out about $450 billion in market value: Q3 revenue and search income both missed, capital expenditures doubled year-over-year, and cash burn intensified (Reuters 10-28); Google Cloud revenue doubled to 31 billion (Fortune 10-28). Crypto AI didn't follow the drop: TAO +1.6%, FET +1.3%, RENDER +1.2%, ICP +0.6% (OKX perpetual 24h). TAO has its own reason: Grayscale filed for a Bittensor ETF (Form 144, 10-28). Back to the money bag: $TAO was still at 320 in September, now 256. On OKX, TAO perpetual 24h trading volume is about $28.4 million, with open interest at $18.87 million; longs pay 0.01% funding fee every 8 hours — this price increase is buying the ETF story, not new buying pressure, but the rent is real. Regarding the AI narrative leg, do you trust U.S. stock cash flow more, or the crypto ETF path?"It's a small position to test the direction—if you can't make big money, you shouldn't lose money either." $SOL 100x short, 102.79→101.85, +91.44%. The reason for opening it is very simple: this direction still holds, after the price breaks down and moves at a low level, it's a position worth continuing to follow. The position is small, so losses won't be significant. The significance of the test position is not in the profit number. 91% is nothing; its value lies in maintaining a sense of participation in this direction with a cost locked to zero. I am also clear about the cost: the reverse space is about 0.09%, and altcoin spikes can swallow it at any time. So my attitude toward it is completely different from the old position— Old position: lock in profits, keep a little to follow. New position: survive first, then talk about other things. The key resistance above is not far away. If it breaks, clear the position and take profits; if it continues to new lows, follow along. Small position to test the direction, large position to defend the gains—I've always done these two things separately. $BTC $ETH #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #Coinbase integrates Deribit, can Q3 revenue improve? ⚡️ LATEST: Stablecoin transfer volume reached $891 billion in Q3 2026, more than quadrupling since early 2023 as US banks expand adoption, a report commissioned by Coinbase shows.$ETH ICE plans to bring on-chain perpetuals to the US｜No confirmed ETH contract yet｜Awaiting both approval and price confirmation My stance is cautious observation, not treating a cooperation agreement as an immediate buy order for Ethereum spot. On October 29, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Trade[XYZ] announced an agreement to establish a perpetual contract market and independent clearing structure in the US based on Hyperliquid technology, covering categories such as crypto assets. ICE also announced a strategic investment in Trade[XYZ]. The key qualifier is "plans": the related market and leveraged trading still require regulatory approval, and specific products and launch dates have not been announced. The announcement does not state that the ETH contract has been approved or listed, nor can it be inferred that institutions are currently buying ETH. CoinDesk's report on pending approval aligns with ICE's original statement. The significance of this for the crypto market lies first in the trading structure, not in an overnight increase in spot demand. If compliant channels are implemented in the future, more funds may hedge risks through regulated venues, which would change the basis between perpetuals and spot, funding rates, and liquidation transmission; but it could also simply shift existing trading volume to new channels. For ETH, only when actual contract specifications, liquidity, and spot trading improve simultaneously can it be considered a more direct positive. At present, interpreting "cooperation" as "ETH will definitely rise" skips over the three yet-to-be-fulfilled hurdles of approval, launch, and real capital. Market reactions should also be viewed separately. The above is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.Google dropped 13%, but I didn't rush to buy the dip. Here are two points I noticed: 1️⃣ Google's free cash flow in Q3 was -$9.07 billion, with revenue and profit missing expectations. Microsoft is also investing heavily in AI, but its cash flow remains positive, and it rose about 2% pre-market. The market is starting to be selective; not every AI-related stock goes up. 2️⃣ September's PCE year-over-year was 3.6%, and the probability of a rate hike in December is already around 85%. With interest rates weighing down, high-valuation stocks suffer the most. My approach: For AI positions, only keep those with solid cash flow; wait for sentiment around Google to settle before considering it; no adding positions before Amazon's earnings report tonight. Will you buy some on this Google dip, or wait longer? This is not investment advice #USStocks #AI #FederalReserve⚡️ LATEST: Stablecoin transfer volume reached $891 billion in Q3 2026, more than quadrupling since early 2023 as U.S. banks expand adoption, a report commissioned by Coinbase shows.Trading insight: Even when there’s no clear opportunity, regular trading requires identifying key market catalysts. Right now, the key factor is the US midterm elections. Trump could lose control of both chambers, creating a potentially bearish outlook for $TRUMP .
Orbit Topic Sitemap