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PK Day | Verdict on $BTC
The results are out, let's start by naming names
Seven-day test window (from 10/22 to this morning's snapshot) results are in: $BTC return -2.30%, $ETH -4.22%, the big brother took only half the hit; max drawdown 2.3% vs 4.2%, volatility 21.9% vs 38.8%, Sharpe ratio -6.34 vs -6.57. Overall report card: $BTC barely passed all, this round's verdict is still $BTC, reigning champion. The judgment remains: in a bear market, it's not about who earns more, but who loses more gracefully — in this skill, the second brother has fallen behind twice in a row. $ETH camp, don't throw your phones yet, there are details on the back of the paper, let's look at each subject slowly.
First subject: Return rate, who slid less
Normalized curves plotted on the same chart: on 10/22 both stood shoulder to shoulder at this cycle's peak ($BTC 82,048, $ETH 2,417), then descended together, the slope is the entire difference — big brother gradually slid to 79,777, second brother slipped directly to around 2,305. Drawdown is more straightforward: big brother's deepest 2.3%, second brother 4.2%, same seven days, second brother's slide was twice as long. Their pace was basically synchronized, both took a hit on 10/23, bounced on 10/24, then slowly declined, the difference was this morning's drop — big brother closed down -0.92%, second brother -1.25%, who led the jump is clear at a glance.#AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？
AWS demand has been confirmed, pricing focus shifts to "realization speed and profit quality"
① Baseline: AWS growth at 38%-41%, profit margin 37%–39%, only confirming "in realization," hard to exceed expectations, stock price reaction is relatively neutral;
② Upside: AWS growth above 42%, and 2027 profit margin signals converge toward 46%, the "investing in the future" narrative is repriced;
③ Downside: AWS growth below 37% or profit margin compressed beyond expectations, CapEx and negative free cash flow quickly flip from "investment" to "eroding the present."
Sold-out computing power proves demand is not lacking buyers, but does not automatically prove supply-side investment can timely convert into profits. The real threshold on earnings night is whether AWS growth can cross the buyer psychological line of about 42%, and whether profit margin divergence can converge toward the optimistic side—merely confirming "demand still exists" is no longer enough. Brothers! The fifth wave of ETH's current rally is almost complete, and next, a larger-scale wave A or wave 1 is very likely to be brewing! $BTC $ETH $SNDK
The top divergence signal is very clear now! The price keeps hitting new highs, but the RSI indicator's peaks are continuously declining. After reaching the high point, the upward momentum is obviously weakening.
Once this correction lands, there is a high probability of another upward move in the subsequent structure, forming wave C or wave 3.
The current correction low has not been confirmed yet, so no need to rush into the market. Be patient and wait for the market to show its direction clearly before making a move!#美國9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息預期仍高
US September core PCE rose from 3.0% to 3.1%, with overall PCE also reaching 3.6%. Although the data met market expectations, inflation remains stubbornly high, which is never good news for risk assets. The market's expectation of another 25 basis point rate hike in December has already exceeded 80%.
Here are the points I think are worth watching:
1️⃣ USD and US Treasury yields
If rate hike expectations continue to heat up, the USD and US Treasury yields may keep strengthening, putting pressure on US stocks and the crypto market.
2️⃣ $BTC liquidity resilience
Bitcoin is increasingly influenced by institutional funds, and the importance of ETF fund flows is growing. If funds continue to flow out, it will be difficult for retail sentiment alone to sustain a rally.
3️⃣ Altcoins may suffer more
In a high interest rate environment, capital usually prefers assets with better liquidity. If BTC shows no clear performance, it will be even harder for altcoins to have an independent rally.
However, I think the market's biggest fear may not be rate hikes themselves, but a sudden change in the originally expected policy path. Since rate hike expectations are already so high, any signs of cooling inflation data could instead become a catalyst for market sentiment reversal. At this stage, I will continue to watch the USD, US Treasury yields, and fund flows of $BTC and $ETH.
#美国PCE #美联储 #BTC #加密市场 #宏观经济Market Analysis for October 29
Last night, Sandisk peaked at 1421, then declined steadily, reaching a low of 1338 today.
Yesterday's rise effectively released the previous bullish momentum, and the market has returned to a normal rhythm.
For several consecutive days, the bulls have worked hard but with little success, clearly indicating that the current level is not the bottom, so a major drop must be guarded against. Trading strategy: short on rebounds, small rebounds for small shorts, big rebounds for big shorts, stay flat and watch if no rebound occurs; do not assume a rebound is guaranteed, focus on trend over price.$BTC has been consolidating around eighty thousand all day, with the highest and lowest prices only about a thousand apart, and the volume is so thin it feels like the whole market is holding its breath. Many people interpret this "unable to fall" as a sign of a rebound, but I understand it the opposite way: while the semiconductor sector in stocks is still partying and the Nasdaq is surging, crypto is not following at all. The divergence of stocks rising and crypto falling indicates this move is more like a retracement rather than a reversal, showing internal weakness. I've been holding the short position below, betting not on which candlestick will appear today, but on the fact that this valuation will sooner or later have to reconcile with cash flow. The difference between holding a position and stubbornly holding it is just a matter of life: as long as your line of admitting a mistake is still there, it's called holding; once it's gone, it's called stubbornly holding.When community banks put one-to-one reserves on the board, the stablecoin game is no longer a wild quick exchange but a king's wing pawn chain personally pushed by the rule makers. The regulatory first move landed on October 26: community banks can apply for stablecoin issuance qualifications directly or through subsidiaries, with capital, risk control, redemption, and reserves all weighed; yet the rules set the effective date on January 18, 2027. This is not a delay but a layout—giving traditional banks a time window to weave customer transaction flows, payment networks, and compliance frameworks into a pawn chain, while using the effective date clock to force crypto issuers to prematurely expose endgame weaknesses.
The real tactical point lies in the interest ban. Issuers cannot pay interest, effectively sealing off the rear wing pawn's exchange channel; the third-party compliance reward leaves a breath, an open line, and a restraint. Canada's October 24 draft similarly suppresses holder yields and caps redemption fees at one percent, effectively welding shut the backdoor during a run. The network effects of the two major USD stablecoins are ready-made pawn advantages, but banks don't need to race at the opening; they can treat deposit customers as the central square, payment networks as rooks and roads, first castle to protect the king, then use midgame exchanges to dismantle opponents' yield subsidies.
One-to-one reserves are not decoration but the baseline pulling stablecoins back from slogans to redemption capability; redemption rights are long-range pieces that can check at any time. Capital and risk control requirements will block issuers without endgame technology before promotion. Banks' true advantage is not issuing a new coin but existing account relationships and payment networks—this is the most solid pawn chain structure in the midgame. The bill seals off interest subsidies, forcing competition back to reserve quality, clearing speed, and compliance costs; the third-party reward, though left open, is like a pinned knight—able to jump but with limited routes. Canada's one percent redemption fee cap seems mild but actually drags fast attacks into endgames, preventing stampede-style runs.
$xSNDK's linkage is a tactical signal on the board, not the strategic whole. When liquidity is insufficient, it acts more like a restrained minor piece: when the bill's timeline moves, it wobbles; when banks' qualification applications land, it may be exchanged. Don't be fooled by single-day fluctuations into countdown reading; watch who controls redemption rights, reserve transparency, and payment entry—these three open lines. The stablecoin endgame is not about who has the loudest voice but who can maintain one-to-one redemption under capital constraints and turn customer payment flows into an irreversible pawn chain.
The real winning move is not the 2027 effective date but who first converts bank counter credit into on-chain payment initiative; by then, $xSNDK's linkage is just a restraint at the board's edge, not the king. #uscanadastablecoinpushAfter this surge and pullback of BTC, it has been grinding back and forth at a low level. On the larger time frame, the highs keep moving lower, indicating an overall weak trend. Don't easily interpret this as a bottom reversal.
Although the hourly chart shows a slow rise from the low of 79666, seemingly stabilizing, the key issue is the lack of volume. This kind of rebound is very fragile.
In the short term, focus on the 80700 level. Only if volume supports holding above this point will the short-term trend strengthen and attempt to test the previous high at 81700. If it fails to break this resistance, there is a high probability of a second dip to test lower support.
This stage is a consolidation phase with multiple possibilities. Only a breakout upward offers a chance to go long; if it faces pressure and falls back, weakness will continue. In a choppy market, the biggest mistake is to rush into heavy positions betting on direction.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 $ZRX — Decentralized Trading Depends on Better Execution
0x provides infrastructure for exchanging digital assets across applications. Its technology addresses an important need in Web3: efficient token trading without relying entirely on a single centralized venue. However, competition is intense, and integrations must generate real activity to matter. For ZRX, evaluate current protocol usage, developer adoption, liquidity, and governance utility. Infrastructure success is measured by practicaBTC has fallen back near $80,000, ETH has dropped even deeper, and the market is not yet at a point where it’s safe to bottom-fish!
📊 $BTC — around $80,000 (24h -1.5%)
Short-term focus on the $79,600 support. Only if it climbs back above $81,000 is there a chance to recover from the decline; if it continues to break down, further pullbacks need to be guarded against.
📊 $ETH — around $2,324 (24h -1.8%)
Underperforming BTC, key to watch if $2,300 can hold. If it keeps lagging behind BTC, it indicates that risk appetite among investors remains low.
📊 $LIT — around $2.79 (24h -7.7%)
Significant short-term drop, selling pressure is worth noting. A bigger drop doesn’t mean the bottom is in; first observe if the decline can be stopped and whether buying interest returns.
Right now, I’m more focused on the market’s ability to absorb the selling rather than rushing to guess the bottom. If BTC fails to hold key support, high-volatility tokens often experience amplified drawdowns.
Do you think BTC will stabilize near $79,600, or continue downward to find support? #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Even I, the "Line Drawing Hermit," am cautious about drawing lines too neatly and getting slapped in the face. 📈 When it comes to opening short positions, I focus on the price relative to moving averages, volume and price behavior near previous highs, and whether a pullback after a breakdown can reclaim the level—without prematurely scripting the market's story.
Core Trader 02 (0x9c062c…00560) recently opened or added to a short position on HYPE using 10x leverage, with a notional value of about $250,100. This entry feels like a proactive bet on a pullback, but I won’t treat a large short position as confirmation of a top.
The reason is straightforward: there’s no candlestick data to tell if this is a short opened on a rally meeting resistance or a short entered after a decline—each scenario offers different entry context; plus, 10x leverage amplifies the pressure from adverse moves. My guess is that only if the price breaks key structures and fails to reclaim them on a pullback will the bearish case become more convincing. I’ll wait for price confirmation and won’t substitute wallet size for judgment.No panic in the rates, no position fleeing, this is the worst news for a slow decline
$BTC Latest rate +0.009%, the bulls are still paying rent to the shorts point by point, sentiment is far from panic. Looking at the tax bills over seven days for details: on 10/22 it was only +0.0044%, on 10/27 it rose steadily to +0.0100%, last night it fell back to +0.0089%—sentiment started to warm up bit by bit after the 10/23 sell-off, but last night it was cooled down halfway by a bucket of cold water. Contract open interest is $2.53 billion, volume barely moved, indicating this round of decline is not a stampede caused by short squeezes; the market is most grueling but also best suited for shorts to hold their positions. Before the FOMC, total market volume shrank by 11%, spot demand was called out as weak by research institutions, and the $2.7 trillion total market cap also looks grim. Smart money was waiting for this morning’s result—once it landed, the first to run is respected. $ETH Open interest $1.48 billion, rate +0.0086%, sharing the same expression as the big brother.
$ETH: When diving, the second brother never misses
24 hours -2.29%, falling more sharply than the big brother’s -1.65%, this is the second brother’s etiquette: rebounds are slow and hesitant, but he leads the plunge. Bias: if you want to short, you can take the second brother along—short at 2,360-2,390 on the rebound, stop loss at 2,420 (just above previous high 2,417), target support at 2,281, but position size only half of the big brother’s is enough; the second brother’s “surprises” are always two-way.$PRCL — Bringing Real Estate Data On-Chain
Parcl explores blockchain-based real estate markets and property-related data. Connecting digital markets with real-world assets presents opportunities, but accuracy, liquidity, and regulatory considerations are essential. PRCL's long-term relevance depends on whether traders and developers continue using its products. Watch platform activity, data quality, product adoption, and token utility rather than assuming that a large property market guaranteesStrategy 昨天收在 145.16，比 9 月底的 153 还低了 5%。美东今天收盘后它出三季报，换成北京时间是明早 4 点前后，5 点开直播。 超预期这关基本没有悬念。10 月 5 日公司自己发了公告，三季度比特币账面赚了 209 亿美元。按它的股数算，每股收益在 40 美元以上，华尔街估的平均才 18 左右，好多家还没跟上季末的币价。所以明早的标题会很好看，赚了 190 亿上下。 可这个标题对第二天没什么用。过去 8 次财报，它第二天 3 涨 4 跌，还有一次是平的。每股收益超不超，跟第二天涨不涨基本没关系。去年 7 月那次每股收益大超，第二天跌了 8.8%。今年 2 月那次大亏，第二天反倒涨了 26.1%，那天比特币涨了一成多。 所以决定第二天的还是比特币。Strategy 手里有 84.8 万枚左右，平常 MSTR 一天的涨跌，大概是比特币的 1.5 到 2 倍。比特币现在 8 万左右，9 月底是 8.35 万，这一季还没涨回来。算上债和优先股，公司整体现在只比手里的比特币贵一成左右，市场已经不太愿意给溢价了。 电话会上大家会问一件事。三季度它发普通股募了 50 多亿美Three hundred trillion dollars worth of rebar is being quietly welded into the financial foundation, while the acceptance report is still buried in the concrete, not yet demolded. The ground ring beam poured by DTCC on October 28 covers 34 stocks, ETFs, and government bonds, with 20 institutions—general contractors like JPMorgan and Citibank—already having signed construction access agreements. This is not about issuing a white paper for conceptual rendering; this is directly embedding steel into the existing load-bearing structure.
First, look at the reinforcement logic: securities held in DTC custody are mapped one-to-one with tokens, with rights intact and transferable 24/7. Translated into construction terms—the original cast-in-place slab is to be converted into prefabricated assembly, but the load path must not change, and the rebar anchorage length cannot be reduced. Canton and private Besu are the pioneers, equivalent to building two model units first; the subsequent public chain integration is the real general contractor expansion. The model units focus on node construction, not exterior wall coatings.
But the real structural risk lies in the node area. The 30 trillion in qualified assets is the blueprint's floor area, not the actual usable area after completion acceptance. Efficiency improvements in settlement and collateral management depend on whether the construction team can align reserved holes and prevent embedded parts from shifting. The 20 institutions signed construction permits, not completion settlement sheets. After pouring the ring beam, there is a curing period; the honeycomb and rough surface after demolding is where the supervisor must sign off.
Now about $xLLY, this linked asset. Next to this 30 trillion giant foundation pit, it is just a thin layer of fine stone concrete protective coating. Market linkage essentially is stress transmission—the large base slab settles, and adjacent independent foundations tilt slightly, but this does not change the reinforcement ratio of the independent foundations themselves. If the load transfer path of tokenized securities can truly enable continuous 24-hour pouring, then the liquidity gap during non-US trading hours is the original expansion joint, now to be filled with elastic sealant. The question is whether the sealant has aging test data; currently, the blueprint does not specify this.
My judgment is straightforward: this is a foundation reinforcement project, not the topping out of the main structure. The first batch of Canton and Besu networks are test piles; before the test pile report is out, no one should treat it as a completion drawing for construction reporting. The real structural safety factor is hidden in settlement failure rates, collateral discount rates, and cross-chain bridge bearing displacements. The tokenization of 34 assets and whether the reinforcement ratio is sufficient depends on crack width under extreme loads—not on the flying buttresses shown in the renderings.
As for the public chain integration plan, that is the phase two expansion design disclosure. If phase one hasn't even properly handled the post-cast joints, adding floors in phase two is just joking with structural redundancy. The entry of 20 institutions is construction organization design, not a building user manual. The completion filing form still lacks the tripartite seals of the survey unit, design unit, and supervision unit.
In this structural system, $xLLY's market linkage is like a short-leg shear wall, capable of bearing local loads but don't expect it to withstand seismic conditions. The real load-bearing system lies in the custodian banks, collateral pools, and the accuracy of on-chain and off-chain account reconciliation. If the concrete curing time is insufficient, the day of demolding is when the honeycomb and rough surface defects appear. This building is currently just at zero level, the tower crane has just been erected, and the main structure acceptance is still far off. #dtcctokenizationliveThe earnings report showed a profit of 20.9 billion, but the "whales" are hitting the brakes.
Strategy is releasing its earnings report tonight, with an extremely impressive paper profit, but what’s more worth watching is its moves: the whale holding 848,000 BTC has recently not only slowed down its accumulation but also repurchased $176 million worth of STRC preferred shares. This sends a clear signal — at the current rebound peak, the largest obvious bulls are choosing "defense" rather than continuing a reckless charge.
Back to the market, this explains why the market is so tangled. After BTC surged, there is a lack of incremental funds to take over, heavy selling pressure above, and it can only digest through high-level oscillation. Without whales leading the ignition, the funds in the market are all engaged in short-term speculation, warning of the risk that a prolonged plateau will lead to a drop.
ETH shows even more fatigue. As a higher-risk asset, once BTC stalls, ETH easily becomes a cash-out machine. Its trend is not only constrained by macro liquidity but also depends on BTC’s performance. Currently, the rebound strength is obviously weak, and the support below will face repeated tests.
In tonight’s earnings call, if Strategy’s executives cannot confidently express continued optimism and plans to increase positions, the market will likely use this opportunity for a shakeout in the short term. In terms of operations, don’t be blinded by paper profits; manage risk well on rallies and wait for the whales to make their move. $BTC $ETH #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 ICE might be the OTC buyer of 3.75 million HYPE, with 625,000 HYPE transferred to TradeXYZ as part of ICE's investment
On October 29, X platform KOL MLM (@mlmabc) posted that out of the 3.75 million HYPE traded OTC last month, 3.125 million were staked to a single wallet, with validators being Hyperliquid Strategies and Unit; the remaining 625,000 were transferred to another HyperEVM wallet and remained idle for nearly three weeks. Yesterday, 1 HYPE was sent to a new wallet, which on the same day received multiple transfers funded by wallets associated with TradeXYZ's purchases on Hyperliquid. Currently, the 625,000 HYPE have been transferred into this new wallet and moved from HyperEVM to Hypercore. MLM speculates that ICE is the buyer of these 3.75 million HYPE, though this has not been confirmed; the 625,000 may have been transferred to TradeXYZ as part of ICE's investment, with on-chain links indicating this portion of HYPE likely belongs to TradeXYZ. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC $ETH $HYPE On October 25th, when BTC's closing price settled at $80,086, the PSIP (Profit Supply Percentage) was 64%.
I once mentioned in a tweet (see quote) that historically, a PSIP below 50% corresponds to the bottom range of bear market cycles. During the bear-to-bull transition period, a PSIP below 65% indicates that the pullback has entered a reasonable range.
So, based on the most recent data point on October 25th, this corresponds to a BTC price of 80k or below.
Relatively speaking, BTC at 80k now is equivalent in cost structure to BTC at 75k on September 15th; because on that day, the PSIP was also 64%.
Of course, if you ask "Where is the lowest point of the pullback starting from 87k this time?" probably no one knows, and I certainly don't know either.
But what I do know is that everything below this point is worth paying attention to—the lower, the better the cost-performance ratio. If the PSIP can reach the 60-55% range, that would naturally be best, but who can guarantee it will definitely get there.
Reposted from MurphyZachXBT: Axis Robotics insiders sold over 76 million AXIS tokens, with the token dropping about 40% in 24 hours
On October 29, according to on-chain detective ZachXBT, Axis Robotics (AXIS) insiders obtained over 76 million AXIS tokens from a multi-signature wallet, valued at over $12 million, then sold them through decentralized exchanges and transferred some tokens to Bitget. In the past 24 hours, AXIS price dropped about 40%. One insider sold 42 million AXIS tokens that day, with their 8 wallet addresses holding over $5.04 million in USDC. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC $ZEC $SOL Hyperliquid Founder Jeff: Never Expected ICE to Build on Hyperliquid's Technology and Realize It Within Just One Year
On October 29, Hyperliquid founder Jeff posted that ICE, trade[XYZ], and Hyperliquid have jointly opened a new chapter. He introduced that ICE started in 2000 as a power trading platform, and 13 years later acquired the NYSE, becoming a key infrastructure provider for the US energy, bond, and mortgage markets; trade[XYZ] is the first HIP-3 deployer, launching the first RWA perpetual market a year ago. According to the announcement he quoted, the cooperation structure is: Hyperliquid provides the underlying technical infrastructure through HIP-3*, trade[XYZ] is responsible for designing and implementing the market, ICE operates the regulated market and clearing structure, the existing trade[XYZ] HIP-3 market remains unchanged, and trading still requires regulatory approval. Jeff also said that about a year ago when he spoke with ICE CEO Jeff Sprecher, he asked me what success meant in my view. I thought for a moment and joked that it was seeing ICE build based on Hyperliquid's technology. I never expected Hyperliquid to make such huge progress in just one year and ultimately achieve this goal. Looking forward to creating more brilliance together moving forward. #$HYPE #US September Core PCE rises to 3.1%, rate hike expectations remain high Today's show stars the Federal Reserve, with BTC just a collateral bystander.
The FOMC held steady as expected, but the aftermath was full of drama: out of 12 officials, 2 actually want a rate hike, Chair Powell's speech was flawless, and the market filled in the blanks with "a hike in December," pushing the rate hike probability to 79.8%. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5%, and Bitcoin weakened accordingly—at 14:14 it was quoted at $80,133, down 0.9%, erasing yesterday's one-day rebound; altcoins fared worse, with ETH and SOL both down over 1.5%. The position landscape is filled with a "lying flat" mood: the long-short ratio is 49.99:50.01, as precise as if both sides signed a ceasefire; the 24-hour total liquidations across the network were only $145 million, indicating leverage has long been tucked away.
Forecast: The $80,000 level will continue to be contested tonight, with the MSTR earnings report as a hidden wildcard. If it breaks down, look for support between $78,000 and $79,300; to rebound, we need the "December rate hike" narrative to cool off. Strategy: keep low leverage and avoid catching flying knives.
$BTC A single reconnaissance balloon rises to an altitude of three thousand meters, and all the clouds without tethering will be exposed on the spot: the one-to-one reserve requirement is exactly the balloon released over the North American continent today.
On October 26, the currency regulatory authority issued a launch permit to community banks: they can directly apply for stablecoin issuance qualifications or declare through subsidiaries; the premise is a one-to-one reserve, smooth redemption channels, and compliance with capital and risk control standards, with the effective date locked on January 18, 2027. Almost simultaneously, a draft from Ottawa pressed down from the north, regulating holder earnings and capping redemption fees at one percent. The two airflows align, merging into a frontal system spanning North America.
Having worked in meteorology for many years, what I fear most is never heavy rain, but the kind of weather that seems mild on the surface yet has been trapped in an inversion layer for three days. The key this time lies in the inversion layer: issuers are not allowed to pay interest. The surface is held down, moisture cannot rise, but the draft leaves a boundary layer gap for compliant third parties to receive rewards. The width of this gap determines who ultimately bears the brunt of this rain.
Looking at timing again. January 18, 2027, to me, is not an imminent warning but a model forecast beyond seventy-two hours. The longer the forecast, the greater the divergence in ensemble predictions. What you can be sure of is the trend: the pressure gradient is increasing, and the wind is about to rise. What you cannot be sure of is the landing zone: which bank will launch first, which payment channel will fill up first.
Community banks hold decades of accumulated moisture channels: deposit customers, clearing networks, local merchants. In contrast, Tether and USD Coin have long been entrenched in the subtropical high-pressure zone at low latitudes—stable, steady, and widely covering. New convective cells trying to break through the high pressure rely not on volume but on continuous moisture transport.
Observation must also be tight. That triple-leveraged long target essentially places an anemometer in the updraft of a thunderstorm cell, amplifying readings threefold while the direction remains unchanged. When the parent pressure field moves, it jumps first.
I am more concerned about system movement speed. From announcement to effect, fourteen months remain, during which several rounds of pressure field changes and liquidity jets will pass. Historically, fronts delayed this long often land with strength differing significantly from the initial model field.
Visibility is declining. When visibility drops, the first to fail is never the instrument. #uscanadastablecoinpushHassett's one statement has once again poured cold water on the market's rate cut fantasies.
White House National Economic Council Director Hassett publicly stated that the US GDP growth rate is moving toward 4%. It sounds good, but for the crypto world, this signal needs to be carefully considered.
First, with such a strong economy, the Federal Reserve has no urgent reason to cut rates. The market's originally expected easing pace may be pushed back again. Without rate cuts, the dollar remains strong, and the valuation ceiling for risk assets continues to be suppressed.
Second, money doesn't disappear out of thin air; it just moves places. Some is absorbed by the US stock market, and the remainder goes to crypto. So you'll see this contradictory market: the better the macro data, the more hesitant the coin prices.
Third, the real turning point lies in the expectation gap. If 4% is just talk and later data contradicts it, that’s an opportunity for reversal; if it truly holds at 4%, the main theme of this cycle won't be a liquidity-driven bull but a profit-driven bull, depending on who has real use cases and cash flow.
Looking at the market, BTC is currently in an awkward position, pressured above and supported below, oscillating back and forth. ETH follows the broader market with slightly more volatility. Altcoins only have localized opportunities, so don’t chase highs recklessly.
My view: in a macro environment leaning strong, it’s not suitable to go all-in betting on direction; it’s better to hold cash and wait for a correction. Only when prices truly drop is it time to accumulate chips.
Don’t be blinded by the phrase "economic improvement"; the crypto world has never profited from good news but from expectation gaps.5 whales collectively went long on 597,912 HYPE within hours
On October 29, according to Lookonchain monitoring, in the past few hours, 5 whales opened long positions on HYPE, totaling 597,912 HYPE, valued at 52.7 million USD. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC $ETH $HYPE #三星Q3营业利润创新高，净利润不及预期 #Doanh thu dịch vụ đám mây của Google tăng 82%, lợi tức đầu tư AI ra sao? $ZEC repeatedly tested the previous resistance zone but failed to break through; the market structure has already given a signal. The volume couldn't keep up during the rally, and heavy sell orders above indicate a typical false breakout with weakening momentum. Once the trend reverses, the downward speed is often faster than the rise, so wait for confirmation of weakness on the right side before following the trend.
Currently, the price is around 1276.98, and the short-term decline has already been largely absorbed. However, be aware that this highly volatile asset can also rebound strongly and may bounce up at any time due to market movements. Going forward, focus closely on the market's support situation; once the trend stabilizes, the rhythm will need to adjust accordingly. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Two test orders included.
A product with a high probability of making money, strictly speaking, does not lack users.
Because users will come looking for it themselves.
The real difficulty is: how do you prove that you have a "high probability"?
I usually only look at four things: whether the backtest is real, whether risk control is executable, whether the live trading is consistent, and whether mistakes are admitted when it fails.
Not investment advice.
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 SanDisk closed yesterday at 1,404.77, up 13.5% over three trading days. After the U.S. Eastern market closes today, the earnings report will be released, which corresponds to just after 4 a.m. Beijing time tomorrow, with a conference call at 4:30 a.m. I think the chance of beating expectations is somewhat higher. Wall Street estimates about $46.4 per share, while the company’s own guidance is $44 to $46. Since SanDisk's spin-off listing, revenue has exceeded its own guidance upper limit every time; out of 5 verifiable occasions, the minimum beat was 2.8%, and the maximum was 24%. This time, as long as revenue is around 10.7 billion and gross margin reaches 85%, a rough calculation puts earnings per share at about 47, and revenue hasn't yet reached the guidance upper limit of 10.8 billion. However, I think the extent of the beat this time won’t be as large as previous times. NAND prices are still rising this quarter, but not as sharply as in the first half; Samsung said NAND average prices rose 17 to 18 percentage points quarter-over-quarter in Q3. More than half of SanDisk’s volume is under long-term contracts, so price increases are not fully captured. Also, starting this fiscal year, it has to pay a minimum tax of 15%, whereas the previous effective tax rate was only around 12 to 13%. So I estimate about a 60% chance of beating expectations, not 90%. The day after is hard to say. In 6 SanDisk earnings reports, the day after saw 4 rises and 2 falls; in the two declines, the stock had already risen significantly in the 5 days before the report, once by 14.7%, once by 32.9%. This time, the stock rose 13.5% in the three days before the earnings. But there are exceptions: in April this year, the stock rose 17.6% in the 5 days before earnings and still rose 8.3% the next day. This quarter, storage peers released"97% on the screen is just a number, 4.70% is the reality."
$OKB 20x leverage, 106.91→112.16, +97.83%.
Don't be fooled by the percentage. With 20x leverage, the underlying asset only rose about 4.91% to generate this 97% paper gain. Conversely: if the price falls about 4.70% from the current mark price, this 97% unrealized profit will instantly vanish.
The death of a high-leverage long position is never a trend reversal, but volatility. A normal market fluctuation or a profit-taking by bulls is enough to turn this fat profit into thin air.
My trading logic is never driven by greed. The only move is: firmly push the stop loss above the cost line, turning this position into "a small amount the exchange owes me." If it doesn't exit, set a deadline; funding fees will turn inertia into losses.
Survive, then the numbers are truly yours. $BTC $ETH #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Missed trades cost nothing.
But recklessly jumping on board to chase the market will make you buy at the top, liquidate at the bottom, and lose everything.
The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is capital. Missing out just means no profit, but recklessness can really be fatal.[A $170 Million Order Only Earned $119,000, Hyperliquid's Crude Oil Market Suspected of "Staging"]
Solidus Labs found that from March 8 to 10, two Hyperliquid accounts cumulatively placed abnormal crude oil $BZ contract orders exceeding $170 million, with cancellations amounting to about 30 times the actual reverse transaction volume, reportedly earning about $119,000 in three days. The typical tactic is to first place large sell orders to create selling pressure, quietly buy on the other side, and then cancel the sell orders after the trades are executed.
Currently, $HYPE is expanding its business from cryptocurrency to traditional assets such as crude oil and stocks. The larger the market, the more traders need to trust that the order book reflects genuine buying and selling intentions. If large orders can be used to intimidate or lure others into trading, ordinary users face not only price volatility but also the risk of being misled by false liquidity.
Hyperliquid responded that orders, cancellations, and transaction records are all publicly available on-chain for external verification. However, transparency of records does not automatically prevent manipulation; Solidus has not yet confirmed any manipulative intent by traders. The real test this time is whether the platform can turn transparent records into effective regulation. If not handled well, the impact could affect not only the reputation of crude oil contracts but also market confidence in Hyperliquid's expansion into traditional asset businesses.Starting with 100,000 in contracts and now having a net worth of over 30 million, my journey in crypto trading is like a novel story! Sharing my personal experience to help everyone achieve their dreams in the crypto world!
1. If your initial capital isn't very large, for example under 100,000, catching one big market swing per day is already enough. Avoid greed and holding positions all the time!
2. When encountering major positive news, if you don't sell on the same day, remember to sell at the high open the next day. Often, the realization of good news turns into bad news.
3. News and holidays are also very important. When facing major events, you should adjust in advance (reduce positions or even go flat). Historically, major events always bring significant market volatility. If you can't predict the direction in advance, then wait for the market to come and follow the trend!
4. For mid-to-long-term strategies, always enter with light positions, leaving enough room for maneuver. Steady operation is the best approach; avoid heavy positions!
5. Short-term trading focuses on following the trend, entering and exiting quickly. Avoid greed and hesitation. Look for suitable entry points during big market swings. If the market is sluggish and inactive, stay flat and wait patiently [L2 Entering Elimination Phase: $LSK, $G Alpha Shutting Down Soon, 26 of 32 Chains Not Fully Ended]
A tracking report on L2 shutdown progress shows: Lisk will shut down on October 31, Gravity Alpha will shut down on November 1; among the 32 chains in the statistics, 26 have not fully ended yet, and users with assets still need to withdraw them as soon as possible.
Crypto KOL BITWU.ETH reviewed and believes the peak period for L2 was from 2023 to the end of 2024, with the $ARB airdrop on March 23, 2023, being a key turning point. Since then, L2s have basically operated on the same template:
1) Launch a chain first;
2) Use points, cross-chain, deposits, and trading rewards to attract yield farmers;
3) Build data and secure funding;
4) After TGE, users and liquidity quickly leave.
He believes that after L2 commercialization, supply and demand became unbalanced, with many chains lacking unique applications, merely replicating the same DeFi, NFT, and points mechanics. The remaining L2s can be divided into three tiers:
First tier: Base, Arbitrum
Second tier: OP Stack ecosystem, Mantle, Starknet
Application-specific winners: Lighter, Unichain, InkU.S. stocks opened sharply lower and plunged! Panic on the market, but the trend hasn't collapsed ⚠️
U.S. stocks directly opened down over 300 points
Overall market sentiment is suppressed
BTC, ETH, and altcoins are all under pressure
But remember the key point:
Short-term decline does not mean the trend is completely broken!
The market is always counterintuitive
The more collective panic there is
The easier it is to see an unexpected rebound
Bullish, but never blindly go long!
The best current approach:
Wait and watch
Keep an eye on the strength or weakness of U.S. stocks
Hold key supports of BTC and ETH before taking action
Two possible scenarios for the market:
✅ U.S. stock decline eases → crypto market sees a recovery rebound
❌ U.S. stocks continue to fall with volume → market continues to retest lows
My personal view remains unchanged:
Overall leaning bullish
No reckless chasing, strictly control position size, and set stop losses
The more chaotic the market, the more you need to be steady!
Are you panicking bearish now, or waiting for an oversold rebound?
Personal market notes only, not investment advice
$BTC $ETH
#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 On the same day, two tokenized stocks both labeled as AI infrastructure went in completely opposite directions. On OKX, XMRVL was down 11.53% in 24h, XORCL was up 8.23% in 24h, while BTC was only down 0.39%. So it’s not driven by the overall market, but these two moved on their own.
For Marvell, it’s news-driven: According to Bloomberg, it is in deep talks to acquire optical device company Lumentum, which might be announced soon, but currently it’s just a report with no final decision. The market’s first reaction was concern over financing and dilution; Marvell’s US stock dropped about 13%, while Lumentum’s rose about 6%. Lumentum’s market cap is about $83 billion, Marvell’s about $221 billion, so this is a big bite to take, and the top question is where the money will come from.
Oracle went the opposite way: at its investor day, it set a target of over $225 billion total revenue by FY2030, said free cash flow will turn positive in the second half of FY2028, and new financing from FY27 to FY30 will be capped at $20 billion. Its US stock closed up 10.73% on the last trading day.
My understanding is that the market hasn’t stopped believing in AI; it’s just starting to audit the books 😅. Those who can clearly explain where the money comes from won’t be questioned, but those who need to spend big money will get grilled first.
Who do you think will be the next to be asked “Where’s the money coming from?” With headline inflation accelerating and core inflation still elevated, the path to easier monetary conditions looks less straightforward.
The next move in crypto may depend on whether incoming data supports rate cuts or forces markets to price in a more hawkish Fed. BTC is repeatedly tugging at the 80,000 level; can this rebound hold?
📊 Market Snapshot
BTC: $80,164 (24h -0.93%), 4H range $79,782 – $80,527
ETH: $2,325 (24h -0.93%), 4H range $2,305 – $2,335
1️⃣ Wyckoff Perspective
The intraday low touched 79,710 before quickly recovering above 80,000, showing a spring effect near the support level. 4H volume is moderately shrinking, selling pressure shows signs of easing, but before breaking through the 80,500 resistance, this can only be seen as a consolidation phase of accumulation, and the distribution phase cannot be confirmed.
2️⃣ 2B Rule Judgment
The previous low near 79,710 was tested twice without a valid break below; a 2B pattern is forming. If it retests without making a new low and then breaks above 80,500 with volume, the reversal signal is confirmed; conversely, if volume breaks below 79,700, beware of a false breakout turning into a real breakout.
3️⃣ Dow Theory
Short-term high at 81,788 and low at 79,710, price is oscillating widely around 80K. The trend structure is intact but no new highs confirmed. ETH moves synchronously with no relative strength divergence, representing a typical waiting-for-direction phase.
🛡️ Trading Strategy
80,500 / 81,800 are key resistance observation points, 79,700 is the short-term lifeline; keep hands off until direction is clear #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) Q3 earnings report will be released tonight. The market has already priced it in: Bitcoin rose about 43% in Q3, the company forecasted unrealized digital asset gains of approximately $20.9 billion, ending four consecutive quarters of losses, with holdings stable at 848,500 BTC (average price about $75,400).
The real highlights are not "how much was earned," but three things:
1. Under fair value accounting, BTC price directly determines the income statement; a good-looking earnings report ≠ cash inflow;
2. Recently paused buying coins and turned to repurchasing STRC preferred shares, indicating capital allocation shifting from "mindless accumulation" to "stable leverage";
3. MSTR premium narrowed to about 6%, the market begins to question the sustainability of the "coin hoarding leverage model."
The impact on Bitcoin is twofold:
- Short term: Positive expectations are basically priced in; if MSTR does not continue to expand its premium after the earnings report, BTC lacks new leveraged buying, making the $80,000 level prone to repeated spikes and dips;
- Medium term: Strategy remains the largest institutional long indicator; as long as it does not sell coins or collapse preferred share credit, it remains a bottom support force for BTC; once financing ability is questioned, it will amplify the correction.
In a word: this earnings report is a "paper bull," not "new ammunition." For BTC to climb to the next level, it must rely on ETF net inflows and interest rate cut expectations, not on Saylor's balance sheet. $HYPE broke through $90 today, rising over 10% intraday
Opened a small position at an average price of 75, unexpectedly made a profit
The reason: ICE and Trade.xyz have reached a cooperation agreement to launch a perpetual contract trading platform targeting the US market after CFTC approval
This platform is built on Hyperliquid, covering stocks, indices, commodities, forex, and crypto assets, with 24/7 trading
If the CFTC gives the green light, Hyperliquid will transform from an offshore derivatives platform into part of Wall Street infrastructure
$HYPE, as the native token of Hyperliquid, is not benefiting from sentiment premium but from a structural revaluation after the compliance channel opens
I posted last week when I entered the position, quite optimistic that this coin will get better and better like $OKB
#HYPE#美加稳定币监管推进，社区银行获邀入场 The US OCC, relying on the GENIUS Act framework, proactively invites local community banks to participate in the stablecoin sector, allowing them to apply to become stablecoin issuers and custodians; Canada is also synchronously improving regulatory details for reference-type crypto assets. Both North American regions are advancing stablecoin compliance implementation simultaneously, no longer limiting entry qualifications to large banks and leading crypto enterprises.
✅ Positive implications
1. Expansion of participants in the sector: Community banks deeply serve local small and micro enterprises and regional customers. After integrating stablecoins, they can provide on-chain payment and cross-border settlement services to local merchants, filling the underserved markets that large banks do not cover, further broadening stablecoin application scenarios.
2. Natural compliance advantages: Community banks inherently have mature KYC, anti-money laundering, and deposit risk control systems. Compared to pure crypto projects, they more easily meet regulatory hard requirements such as 1:1 reserves, regular disclosures, and redemption guarantees, reducing regulatory implementation resistance.
3. Accelerated integration of traditional finance and crypto: More licensed financial institutions entering the market helps enhance trust in stablecoins and promotes the advancement of RWA and on-chain payment businesses. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Brothers, don’t look down on my small position and little profit! As long as the direction is right, even if I make just one or two bucks, it’s all real skill wrestled from the dog traders’ hands! I short confidently and boldly!
Look at the latest market: $ETH current price is 2320.82, I opened a short at the high of 2354, and now the floating profit has further expanded to 4.22%! And what are these retail traders doing? Looking at the bottom data, the bulls’ proportion has surged again to 71%, while the bears are only 29%. They really have the memory of a fish—after such a drop, they still dare to rush in crazily. The market makers love you bag holders the most!
Let’s dig into the order book to see the real intentions of the main players:
First, the selling pressure above is tightly pressing down. Keep an eye on 2320.84, where a large sell order of 175.22 coins is directly suppressing the price. As soon as the bulls dare to show up, they get smashed back immediately.
Second, the buy orders below are all a confusing trap. Although there’s a buy order of 325.17 at 2320.83, which looks bigger than the sell orders, did the price go up? Not at all! This is bait set by the main players below to fish, deliberately creating the illusion that "it can’t fall further" to lure retail traders in.
Third, the trend is a typical descending channel. The moving average system is firmly pressing from above, and all the weak rebounds are volume-less bull traps.
Don’t be the sucker who takes the bag. My very small short position is held steadily, the forced liquidation price is far away, no matter how the main players shake the market, they can’t blow me out.
$BTC $ZEC #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Hyperliquid whales are net short $BTC for the first time since March.
This group managed to long the bottom, but the positioning flipped last week.
The question is whether they are early to a deeper pullback, or about to be squeezed if price turns higher.The 0.0013%/hour funding rate is the number I care about most in this message. In the futures market, when there's a sharp rally, I usually first check whether the position cost has become more expensive, similar to looking at the premium or discount in commodity futures; you can't just focus on how much the price has risen on the screen. Although the mechanisms differ, both serve to account for the excitement in the market.
This time, $LIT rose 6.49% in one hour, with the price reaching $3.19. I actually think that based on this funding rate alone, it's not enough to conclude that the bulls are already crowded. A fast price increase doesn't necessarily mean that leverage sentiment is overheated; these two things need to be considered separately.
The difference between crypto perpetuals and traditional futures is that the funding rate continuously affects the position cost and can change. The annualized rate of about 11% given in the material is just calculated based on the current rate, not a locked-in cost for a year. If the positive funding rate continues to rise, then the burden on long positions chasing the rally will increase; this is my inference, not something that has already happened. A snapshot at this moment also doesn't reveal what exactly is driving this rise.
My old habit might be a bit of a downer: when there's a sharp rise, I first look at the cost before discussing strength or weakness. Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? When you encounter such a one-hour surge, do you first check whether the funding rate can be sustained, or do you first look at changes in volume and open interest, and why?I'm buying Google at this price without hesitation. The financial report looks pretty good. It was sold off just because of investments in SpaceX and AI layout. Those who want to sell, go ahead. This position is really attractive. I'm planning to hold GOOGL starting with 280 for the medium to long term. #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高
Today’s intraday quick review of the US stock market (2026.10.29): Google drags down the Nasdaq, money is frantically rotating
The opening trend is clear at a glance: money is withdrawing from "burning cash to buy the future" stocks and squeezing into "stocks with earnings, buybacks, and solid fundamentals."
Once Google's earnings report came out, the market immediately voted with its feet. GOOGL is currently around 283.6, down more than 12%, with trading volume soaring to 8.8 billion. This volume is not something retail investors can generate. The issue is not revenue but free cash flow being negative for two consecutive quarters. The money spent on AI infrastructure shows no short-term return, so funds are running first. GOOG also hit the floor, temporarily giving up its top spot.
But the market is not collapsing entirely. Microsoft rose nearly 1%, Apple is up, Meta is holding strong, and Eli Lilly surged 8%, indicating money hasn’t left the market, just changed tables. Funds are moving from AI narrative stocks with high capital expenditure and cash flow pressure to defensive growth stocks with higher earnings certainty.
The worst hit is ServiceNow, which plunged more than 22%, marking the largest intraday drop since 2016. The software SaaS sector was bloodied today. Storage players like SanDisk and Micron also took hits, showing clear differentiation within semiconductors.
Traders’ intuition: today is not indiscriminate selling but precise position cutting. Google dragged the Nasdaq down, but Microsoft and Eli Lilly caught some of the liquidity.【Nasdaq futures fall nearly 1%, the AI money-burning spree begins to pay the price】
US tech stocks are taking a hit, with the focus squarely on how much profit AI investments can actually generate. On October 29, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped about 1% at one point, Alphabet, Google's parent company, fell over 10% pre-market as core search ad performance missed expectations and AI spending continued to drain cash flow. Microsoft, however, rose against the trend due to strong cloud business growth and cash flow, showing that the market is starting to differentiate between AI spenders.
This selling pressure isn't just dragging down Google. Nvidia fell pre-market, AMD and Intel declined even more, and software stocks also reported earnings shocks. Meanwhile, US Q3 GDP grew 3.4%, core PCE rose 3.1% year-over-year, indicating the economy and inflation remain robust, making rate cut expectations hard to gain traction. The crypto market has also been affected, with BTC briefly dropping below $80,000 and over $300 million liquidated in 24-hour contracts.
What concerns me more than the Nasdaq $QQQ dropping 0.9% is that AI trading is shifting from "who spends the most" to "who can actually make money back." Tonight's earnings reports from Amazon and Intel will be another test; if the market continues to punish companies with high spending and low returns, both tech stocks and crypto assets will face short-term challenges.The SOL spot ETF lost about $24.8 million in two days, but the coin just broke around 100 and then bounced back. I'll keep an eye on this level first.
According to SoSoValue on 10/27 Eastern Time, the spot SOL ETF had a net outflow of about $19.16 million in one day, and on 10/28 it lost another $5.66 million, totaling about $24.8 million over two days.
The 10/27 redemption was the second largest single-day redemption since last December. The cumulative outflow in October has exceeded about $105 million, while the cumulative net inflow is still around $1.5 billion.
During the same period, the BTC spot ETF continued to see inflows (about $137 million on Wednesday). While BTC is still attracting funds, SOL is losing them.
On OKX, the current price is about 100.3, with a 24h high of about 103.9 and a low of about 99.3. The Beijing opening price was about 101. The price did dip near 99 during the session but is now hovering around 100.
I tend to see institutions redeeming while the spot price tests around 100 back and forth; this is not a bottom-fishing signal. Let's first see if the 99.3–100 range can hold. If it recovers to about 103–104, then we can talk. If the 4H candle closes below about 99.3, the psychological barrier at 100 will loosen.
Do you think 100 can hold, or will it test 96–98 first?
$SOL
$BTC
#VanEck与富兰克林推出含BTC配置的新型ETF 中期选举牵动加密监管 链上金融作为技术革新，在全球多数地区仍处于监管萌芽期。不同于传统金融拥有成熟的合规环境，加密行业的发展高度依赖政策走向。 美国中期选举直接决定了下一届国会的议员构成，这将直接影响2027年新国会是否愿意以及在多大程度上重启对加密货币的市场结构立法。随着选举临近，加密资本正通过各种政治行动组织直接干预选举结果。 Fairshake重金组建亲加密阵营 本轮选举的核心操盘手是由 Coinbase、Ripple 和 a16z 出资成立的超级政治行动委员会（Super PAC）Fairshake。该组织的目标是在美国历史上组建规模最大的“亲加密议员集团”。 在2024年总统选举周期中，Fairshake 及其关联组织筹集并支出了1.3亿至2亿美元，成为当年企业政治支出最大的主体之一。该组织通过在数十场国会选举中投放广告，全力支持亲加密候选人并阻击立场不友好的议员。 俄亥俄选战阻击反加密议员 俄亥俄州参议院席位成为本次中期选举中最受瞩目的关键战役。前银行委员会主席Sherrod Brown被视为加密行业在国会中最大的对手。 2024年选战结果：Fairshake 投入约400Coinbase 昨天收在 162.32，9 月底还是 186.41，一个月跌了 12.9%。同一段时间比特币只跌了 2.8%，股价比币跌得狠多了。美东今天收盘后它出三季报，换成北京时间是明早 4 点多，5 点有直播问答。 每股收益这关我不太担心。华尔街是按调整后的口径估的，大多是每股亏一两毛。可公布出来的 GAAP 数里有一行，是 Coinbase 自己手里的比特币、以太坊按季末价记账。三季度比特币涨了 42.8%，以太坊涨了七成，粗算这一行有 6 亿多美元的账面收益。前三个季度币价往下走，它连着亏了三季，这季反过来，我粗算每股能赚 1.5 到 2 美元。 我真正等的是股东信里的一个数。Coinbase 每次出财报，都会在股东信里顺带报一下这个季度到前几天为止的交易收入。7 月底那次报的是 7 月前 26 天 1.3 亿美元左右，一天 500 万，比二季度一天 660 万慢了两成多。第二天股价跌了 10.6%。 这次要报的是 10 月。10 月比特币从 8.36 万跌到了 8 万左右。Coinbase 交易所几个主要币对的成交额，我粗算比三季度平均少了一成多。好的一面是 10 月币价