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#Google Cloud business grows 82%, how is the AI investment return? "Google Cloud growth of 82%" actually refers to Q2 2026 data; the latest Q3 cloud business has grown 103%, with revenue of $30.7 billion, operating profit of $11.1 billion, and an operating margin rising to 36.2%. AI investment on the cloud side has already started to pay off.
The quality of returns is not bad: cloud business growth significantly outpaces AWS and Azure, driven jointly by TPU external sales and AI infrastructure demand, with profitability improving faster than revenue growth. But overall returns remain uneven: advertising revenue is below expectations, capital expenditure reaches $51.4 billion, and free cash flow turns to -$9.1 billion, causing a sharp drop in after-hours stock price.
More precisely, Google's AI return is "cloud validated, advertising lagging, cash flow under pressure." Next, it remains to be seen whether, as capital expenditure continues to rise in 2027, cloud revenue can continue to cover depreciation and computing power costs, and whether AI search advertising can make up the shortfall on the advertising side. MicroStrategy (Strategy) launches "daily interest payment" Bitcoin stocks
Saylor has a new move: the special shareholders' meeting on the 28th preliminarily approved changing the four Bitcoin preferred stocks STRC, STRF, STRK, and STRD to daily interest calculation, including weekends and holidays. STRC will start on November 1, and the other three will follow on January 1 next year. The interest rates remain unchanged (STRC annualized 12%, STRF/STRD 10%, STRK 8%), but the "money flavor" is made to roll daily like a money market fund. Simply put, the goal is to package BTC as an "interest-bearing cash substitute"—the addiction is growing stronger.ETF has recovered some funds, but don't treat it as "true love"
On the 26th (Sunday's data), the spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $110.3 million, all taken by BlackRock IBIT alone, with others at zero; on the 27th, another $176 million came in, with IBIT taking $151.5 million, totaling $286 million over two consecutive days. However, for the entire October, it still showed a slight net outflow (depending on different statistics, about -$170 million to -$26 million), with a single-day outflow of $635 million on October 22. Funds have flowed back, but it seems more like a cautious lick rather than a fierce rush.“Uptober” really crashed this year
It's quite awkward: Bitcoin has still dropped 4.2% this month as of the 25th (83600→80051), clearly about to close October in the red for the second consecutive year—between 2020 and 2024, October averaged about an 18% gain. CryptoQuant says the 30-day "apparent demand" has fallen to negative 76,000 BTC; since October 14th, new buyers have been absorbing coins slower than miners are producing them. Coinbase premium hasn't been positive all month, hitting -0.146 on the 24th, Americans aren't taking delivery, and pricing power has shifted back to Asia and offshore.DTCC launched its tokenization service yesterday. I translated the participant notice and feel the phrase "around the clock" should be taken with a grain of salt.
Among the first 20 signatories are JPMorgan, Citi, Fidelity, and Citadel. After securities become tokens, they can indeed be transferred day and night, even on weekends, but only between whitelisted wallets, and only on the Canton chain and DTCC's own private Besu network; other networks will have to wait until next year.
At first, I also thought this meant US stocks were on-chain and could be accessed anytime. But looking further, the exchange between original securities and tokens is only accepted Monday to Friday from 2 PM to 6 PM Eastern Time. Currently, that translates to 2 PM to 6 AM Beijing Time, with no service on weekends.
So if something happens over the weekend, tokens can be transferred within the whitelist, but to convert back to the original stocks, you have to wait until Monday. I also didn't find New York Mellon or Goldman Sachs on the whitelist.
From what I see, this step tokenizes securities rights held in DTC custody, but we're still far from retail investors being able to directly access on-chain US stocks. If someday the conversion step also operates 24/7 including weekends, then I'll admit I was premature. #美加稳定币监管推进，社区银行获邀入场 The Fed "holds steady," giving Bitcoin a breather
In the early morning, the Fed kept the interest rate at 3.75%–4.00%, with 10 votes in favor and 2 votes for a hike, basically in line with market expectations. BTC pulled back from around 80,000 to about 81,200 USD (+around 0.6%), ETH followed with a 1% rise. Don't rush to call a reversal—the price briefly fell below 84,000 before the decision, and it was only after short sellers were forced to cover about 110 million USD that the price was pushed back up; the entire market saw liquidations exceeding 167 million. This rebound, supported by a short squeeze, has a foundation thinner than paper.$BTC The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.75%–4% last night, but 2 out of 12 votes favored an immediate rate hike. Despite such a hawkish signal, BTC only fluctuated by 1.37% in the 6 hours following the decision.
In the past 14 rate decisions, the average volatility during the same period was 2.38%, with only one instance showing less movement than this time.
The leverage chart from last night also matched up: the highest surge was 1.16%, the lowest pullback was 0.21%, longs and shorts within 50x leverage are still active, while 100x shorts have already been liquidated.
The hawkish votes didn’t scare the price, but "no movement" doesn’t mean "safe"; tonight the US will release Q3 GDP.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX BTC-USDT 1-hour chart; Decision source: Federal Reserve statement #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 I have a long position in $BTC with an average price of $83,030, no adding to the position, and no chasing in the middle of the range.
A) Holding above $82,007, the resistance above is the descending trendline at $83,946, which is still dropping; if it falls back below $80,849, it becomes invalid.
B) Breaking below the ascending trendline at $80,018 (which is still rising), the next level is $79,220; if it climbs back above $80,849, it becomes invalid.
The $81,051 level has been tested 13 times, held 6 times, broken 5 times, and no reaction 2 times.
In 46.8 hours, shorts liquidated $10.73 million, longs $4.64 million, indicating the shorts above have been swept once.
On October 29, there is the Federal Reserve rate decision and US PCE inflation data; I won’t guess the outcome, the price may not follow the usual pattern.
If it rebounds near $83,946, I will take half profits first and move the stop loss to the cost price of $83,030.
Which side do you lean towards? #OKXTraderVoices Two Fed members voted for a rate hike, yet BTC options volatility barely moved, this calmness looks a bit fake
The statement kept rates steady at 3.75%–4%, Cook and Hammack immediately wanted to raise by 25 basis points, and the CME December rate hike probability rose to about 82.6%.
Logically, a hawkish stance should have caused some jitter. But Deribit's DVOL basically stuck around 37.5 before and after the statement, Coinbase only rose 0.33% from the statement to evening, hovering roughly between 80600 and 81234 in the first hour.
Spot is still around 81200 now, with a 24h high of 81823 and low of 80397. The overnight candle didn’t widen either.
I think it looks more like "priced in long ago," not a sudden influx of buying. Volatility not rising and price not moving far means everyone is waiting for the next move, not rushing to take sides.
First, see if 81000 holds; if 1H closes below 80500, this "calm" act is over, then watch for a move down to 80000.
Do you think it’s truly digested, or will volatility explode a bit later?
$BTC
$ETH
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 The supply side of Bitcoin is shifting, but only halfway.
On October 26, exchanges saw a net inflow of 7,278 BTC, which flipped to a net outflow of 12,702 BTC on the 27th — a complete turnaround in one day. The 7-day net outflow was 4,633 BTC, and the 30-day net outflow was 4,048 BTC. Although there were 4 days of net inflows in the past 7 days, the overall trend has tilted toward withdrawing coins. With fewer coins on exchanges, there are naturally fewer spot assets available to sell.
Derivatives are not as optimistic. The funding rate is 0.00762%, higher than the 7-day and 30-day averages, indicating longs are still paying to maintain positions, reflecting a relatively hot sentiment. Open interest stands at $25.67 billion, up 0.56% over 7 days and 0.33% over 30 days, showing leverage has neither increased nor decreased. While spot is flowing out, the money on the contract side hasn’t left, showing a divergence in direction.
The key focus should be on long-term holders. SOPR dropped from 1.1657 to 1.0124, approaching the breakeven point of 1. This indicator measures the profit multiple when old coins are sold; the closer it is to 1, the thinner the selling of the most steadfast holdings. In other words, fewer people are willing to give up their old coins at this price level, pushing the psychological price higher.
Putting it all together, the outlook is neutral: supply improvement is a fact, and the high funding rate is also a fact, canceling each other out. The real signal will come when two things happen simultaneously — net outflows continuously expand, and the funding rate falls below the average. Until then, $BTC looks more like it’s sideways consolidating rather than preparing for a breakout.PEPE rose about 10% in the past 24 hours, with the nominal value of contract positions nearly 46% higher than the same hour yesterday, and the current fee rate at +0.01%.
At 08:46 on OKX, the spot price was 0.000005056, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $45.3 million. The nominal value of contract positions recorded at 07:00 was about $48.39 million, compared to about $33.17 million at 07:00 yesterday. The current price has pulled back about 3.5% from the 24-hour high of 0.0000052374.
My judgment is that the rise is accompanied by an expansion of open interest risk exposure, and next we need to see how these positions are digested. Since positions are measured by nominal value, price increases themselves will also raise this figure; it does not distinguish the long or short direction of new positions. The +0.01% fee rate alone cannot confirm crowding on the long side.
I am more focused on the close and open interest of the next full hour. If the price approaches 0.0000052374 again and open interest continues to increase, then we will see if the fee rate rises significantly; if the price falls back below 0.0000050 while open interest remains high, the leverage risk during the pullback will become more prominent.
$PEPE Robinhood closed at 91.43 the day after releasing its earnings report, down 3.3% from 94.56 the previous day. Since last April, this marks the seventh consecutive time the stock closed lower the day after earnings.
The opening was even worse, with a direct drop of 5.6%, opening at 89.23. It then gradually recovered, closing 2.5% higher than the opening price. The options bet on a roughly 10% move up or down, but the actual drop was only 3.3%, much smaller than the bet.
Both predictions in the outlook were correct. Earnings per share came in at 0.51, below the expected 0.555, and the stock also closed lower the next day. The 4 cents difference from my estimate of 0.55 was due to taxes; the unrealized loss on RVI didn’t offset the tax much.
Both 'No' bets won: the beat expectation averaged 18.4 cents, and the next day’s rise was 67 cents per share.Exhausted, the Federal Reserve's October interest rate decision is out, just as I said before: no rate hike in October, hike in December.
The rate remains unchanged at 3.75%-4%, with a 10:2 vote; Cook and Hammack voted against, requesting an additional 25 basis points hike. The Fed's statement: strong economic growth, stable unemployment rate, consumption still robust, but inflation remains high. Coupled with geopolitical uncertainties, they continue to stick to the 2% target. The overall tone is hawkish, indeed leaving room for a December hike, which the market has basically priced in.
The initial crypto reaction is very muted; Bitcoin is still oscillating above 80,000 (around 81,000), with leverage pressure unchanged. Short-term negative factors are exhausted, no need to worry too much, but the "hawkish overhang" in December plus midterm election results are the real variables ahead. As I always say: zero leverage, slowly accumulate spot, don't get shaken out by volatility. I originally planned to stay up late to trade crypto tonight, but BTC is behaving very calmly… $BTC $ETH $ZEC The oil pot has just been taken off the heat, yet the valve at the Strait of Hormuz is still being pressed down by a military boot—Brent at $109.74/barrel, WTI at $99.50/barrel, this ladle is far from a light broth. Iran's Supreme Leader has set conditions for a ceasefire, and warnings are coming from the Gulf direction; the kitchen is like it’s simultaneously on fire and ventilating: on one side skimming off diplomatic foam, on the other side guarding against military chili oil splashing the pot. This price level is not cheap fare; the broth still has oil floating on top. The market treats the “willingness to end the war” as a salt reduction, but Trump has yet to make a final decision, so shipping and energy security at Hormuz remain uncertain; shipping fees are like the food delivery channel—if the rhythm of serving the whole table is disrupted, supply disturbances are like the stove’s gas flame—if it flickers, all pots need to be re-seasoned. Whether oil prices can continue to fall depends on whether this broth is just skimming foam or changing the soup entirely. Geopolitical news is like extra spicy chili—adding a little enhances the aroma, but too much burns the stomach.
XMETA, this tokenized US stock offering, is not a lonely dessert. On the surface, it’s a tech main course, but underneath it’s drenched in macro oil sauce: high oil prices stoke inflation expectations and interest rate heat, and growth stock valuations fear the stove temperature fluctuating wildly; shipping and energy costs act like invisible thickeners, sticking to risk appetite. A drop in oil prices gives risk assets a spicy breath of relief, but with military risks still burning, safe-haven funds act like cold water poured on a hot pot—no matter how resilient XMETA is, it depends on the heat. On the menu, this dish’s top notes are a tech story, the mid-notes are the advertising cycle, and the base notes are interest rates and energy costs; a change in the oil price’s spiciness can suppress even the most fragrant top notes. The portfolio mix has always been: mainstream coins as the main course, altcoins as seasoning, and leveraged contracts as extra spicy chili—when the oil price ladle pours chili oil, no matter how fragrant the seasoning, it can’t cover up the stomach’s turmoil. XMETA’s linkage isn’t about watching a single headline dish, but whether the three pots of Hormuz valve, shipping fees, and inflation expectations are all stable simultaneously. Diplomatic hope is the foam skimmed off, military risk is the hidden fire; skimming off foam doesn’t mean the broth isn’t boiling. This pot of soup is still one fire short of clarity, and XMETA’s dish can only follow the stove’s temperament. #oilfallsamidiranrisks☀️ Uncle's Morning Report｜10.29 (Thursday) 🌍 Summary in one sentence: Microsoft Azure grew 48%, after-hours surged over 5%; Google Cloud grew 103%, but Alphabet fell due to profits falling far short of expectations. With similar AI bets, the market is starting to differentiate: growth is important, but whether growth can translate into profit is even more important. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 3.75%—4.00%, but there were two dissenting votes advocating for a rate hike this time. The A-share market rebounded with volume yesterday; today’s test is not whether it can open higher, but whether it can continue to rise. 🪙 Crypto｜Consolidating near 81K, waiting for direction BTC around $81,290, ETH around $2,360 (pre-market reference prices). Uncle’s observation: The Fed decision is out, but that doesn’t mean macro risks are gone. Watch if it can hold above 82K; don’t mistake a rebound for a reversal. 🇺🇸 US Stock Market Overnight｜AI starts facing profit scrutiny Dow +0.19%, S&P +0.28%, Nasdaq +0.27%. Microsoft: Azure grew 48%, next quarter growth guidance continues to accelerate, after-hours surged over 5%. Alphabet: Revenue grew 25%, Google Cloud grew 103%, but EPS was $2.12, far below market expectations, stock fell after hours. Uncle’s observation: Google Cloud grew 103%, yet the stock still fell—the market isn’t doubting AI, but is starting to ask when investments will convert into profits and cash flow. Microsoft got rewardedGoogle has released its earnings report, and the drop is unbearable to watch.
Earnings per share were 2.12, while Wall Street estimated 3.02. The miss was expected, but the surprise was how sharply the stock price fell.
On Wednesday, Google closed at 324.89, and after hours it dropped to a low of 287.57. By 8 PM Eastern Time, it was at 292.47, down 10%, breaking through the 6% drop that options had bet on.
In my outlook, I listed several numbers that could prove me wrong. Cloud revenue was 30.7 billion, surpassing the 30.5 billion threshold, and capital expenditures for 2026 did not increase further. Only the backlog was 561 billion, not reaching 650 billion. Most of the good numbers were there, yet the stock price still fell. Revenue was roughly as expected; the news cited the reasons as earnings per share missing estimates and spending being too high. The CFO also said capital expenditures will significantly increase in 2027.
What surprised me most was the orders on OKX perpetual contracts. I thought longs would close positions after the drop, but the long-to-short ratio rose from 6.3 last night to as high as 8.5 before 8 AM. Positions increased from 58,000 shares to 108,000 shares, nearly doubling—buying more as the price fell.
The No chosen for exceeding expectations won. The No chosen for the next day’s rise will have to wait until tonight’s US market close.
Alright, these are all my personal views and actual positions, not investment advice. First, to pour some cold water, when I see this kind of judgment "price will rise once uncertainty fades," I tend to look for which link is missing inside. My view is cautious: price resilience means toughness, but directly translating it into upward momentum might be overreading the market.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that ETF net inflows have been close to zero year-to-date this year, yet Bitcoin has only dropped 7%. Based on this, he speculates that the possibility of large-scale selling by veteran whales or miners is low, and expects bullish momentum to return after midterm election uncertainty fades and ETF inflows resume. I think there are two key points here: net inflow close to zero is just a net figure and cannot alone confirm that selling pressure has cleared; fading election uncertainty does not necessarily mean ETF funds will definitely flow back. The former is a supply judgment, the latter a demand assumption—missing either link cannot support a complete bullish logic.
Of course, he might be right. The ability to hold up under weak demand itself should not be underestimated. If ETF net inflows continue afterward and $BTC price strengthens accordingly, rather than funds coming in without price rising, I will adjust my bearish view. For now, I want to focus on whether funds and price can mutually validate each other, and not rush to price in a condition that has yet to be realized. October 29 Crypto Market Analysis
BTC around $81,245, ETH around $2,360. The Fed's "hawkish pause" was implemented; the decision itself did not trigger a sell-off, but the internal 10:2 vote included two dissenting votes advocating for a rate hike, pushing the December rate hike expectations above 85%.
BTC: Neutral to cautious. ETF holders' average cost is about $81,500, and the current price is battling near this level. Continued closing below it may trigger redemption pressure. The resistance above $87,000 has twice suppressed rebounds this year and caused at least a 25% pullback. Short-term support at $81,000 maintains consolidation, with a lower probability of a sharp drop compared to a gradual decline.
ETH: Weak. It has broken below the daily ascending channel lower boundary since June (around $2,400). The futures active buy/sell ratio of 0.973 is the lowest since the June sell-off. October ETF outflows total about $1.26–1.32 billion, approaching a monthly record and about six times the BTC outflow scale. The $2,310–2,328 range is a dense area of on-chain cost, 200-day EMA, and large holder cost; losing this level sets the next target at $2,256.
Core changes: The decision was moderately implemented but with a tough tone, which suppresses BTC's rebound height rather than causing a sharp drop; ETH's technical breakdown combined with continuous ETF outflows results in higher short-term risk than BTC. $BTC $ETH Microsoft has reported earnings, and a big bullish candlestick has appeared. Azure rose 48%, which is one point higher than the 47% line in the buyers' minds. In the earnings call, the CFO gave next quarter's Azure guidance at a constant currency growth of 49% to 50%, even faster than this quarter.
In my preview, I wrote that if Azure reaches above 48% and the next quarter's guidance is also raised, and the stock closes higher the next day, then I would be wrong. Now the first two conditions have been met. On Wednesday, Microsoft closed at 531.01, and after hours it surged to around 568, up 7%. By 8 PM Eastern Time, it was 546.50, up another 2.9%. On OKX, MSFT perpetual futures were at 547.5 by 8 AM Beijing time, roughly the same as after-hours.
Earnings per share were no surprise, reported at 4.92, adjusted 4.89, while Wall Street estimated 4.71. The "Yes" choice for beating expectations won, the "No" choice for next day rise lost; let's see what happens tomorrow.
The only chance for a turnaround is the pattern I mentioned in the preview: in the past 8 times, 7 times the stock closed lower than it opened the next day. After the US market opens tonight, we'll see if it can open high and hold.
These are all my personal views and actual positions, not investment advice. The Federal Reserve held steady overnight, keeping rates at 3.75% to 4%, with a 10-2 vote; Cook and Harker both voted for a rate hike, and the September vote was unanimously 12-0.
The statement changed the economy description from solid expansion to strong expansion, and the previous sentence about rate hikes helping inflation return to 2% faster was removed. The Wash press conference gave no forward guidance.
CME FedWatch shows over an 85% chance of a rate hike in December, and the 10-year US Treasury yield peaked at 5.025%.
$BTC was around 80,800 when the decision came out, rose to 81,100 during the press conference, surged to 81,768 at 4 a.m. but was pushed back, now hovering around 81,130 with a funding rate of 0.01%.
Holding steady does not mean easing; the two votes for a rate hike are clear, the December rate hike threat still hangs, and yields are so high. I consider this rally a bounce from the boots dropping, not a trend.
Short-term support is between 80,950 and 81,000; the lower shadows of several hourly candles overnight are around here. Cut losses if it breaks below 80,950.
Resistance above is at 81,450; if the long upper shadow at 81,770 can’t be surpassed, don’t chase.
Stop loss below 80,700; target first at 81,770; keep position size small as usual. #OctoberFOMCRateDecisionComing $BTC $HYPE
One of the core participants in the ecosystem, HyperLabs, applied to redeem nearly 180,000 HYPE, equivalent to 14.49 million USD. Whose holdings wouldn't shake a bit with that?
So what happened? HYPE's current price is 80.5, down 1% in 24 hours, hitting a low of 79.5 before bouncing back. With such a large redemption request on-chain, this is the market's reaction.
There are two interpretations. One is that the chip structure is indeed solid: over 1.7 million tokens traded in 24 hours, so 180,000 is about two to three hours' volume, and the buyers aren't panicking. The other is that no one really cares—you redeem yours, I trade mine.
I lean towards the former but don't intend to bet on it. I've always thought HYPE's valuation is somewhat story-driven; a real on-chain redemption knocking on the door, and the price not moving doesn't mean nothing's happening, maybe the time just hasn't come.
Wait for this real sale to complete, then see if the market shows respect.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Integrating Bitcoin into a multi-asset portfolio is essentially like adding a modular steel structure annex to an existing reinforced concrete framework—not a rebuild, but a reinforced expansion. VanEck's WBMO launched on October 27, supported by four pillars: stocks, bonds, gold, and BTC. The BTC allocation benchmark is 2%, adjustable between 1%-5%, operating through a spot ETP channel. To me, this is a "tuned damper design": it’s not expected to be the main load-bearing wall, but it can absorb shear waves when an earthquake hits.
Franklin Templeton’s FBEQ and FIBT are more straightforward, starting with about 95% US stocks and 5% BTC, then continuously increasing BTC through dividend reinvestment. Translated into construction terms: using operational cash flow to reinforce the foundation, converting the dividend drainage pipe into a prestressed anchor cable. The design logic is clear, but the construction sequence matters—pour the main structure first, then tension; reversing the order causes stress concentration.
The real highlight isn’t the allocation numbers but the shift in the structural system. Previously, BTC was an irregular building on an independent plot—striking in shape but isolated. Now, asset managers have made it a prefabricated component with standard floor height and load, embedded into the beam-column joints of traditional portfolios. A 2% allocation sounds like decorative reinforcement, but an adjustable range up to 5% means this joint design reserves capacity for seismic grade upgrades. From dividend reinvestment to multi-asset portfolios, what asset managers are doing is reclassifying BTC from a "landscape structure" to a "structural component."
This triggers a chain reaction in engineering terms: when BTC enters mainstream portfolios at single-digit percentages, its volatility characteristics are diluted by the portfolio’s inertia, but the portfolio’s drawdown path is reshaped by it. The correlation depth with the US stock token $xSPY is essentially a seismic wave transmission issue between two adjacent buildings on the same foundation slab—once resonance frequencies align, whether the seismic gap is wide enough becomes a matter of life and death.
I’ve seen too many projects fail due to construction quality—not because the blueprints were bad, but because the reinforcement ratio and concrete grade didn’t match. The adjustable BTC allocation from 1% to 5% tests not the design institute’s imagination but the asset manager’s on-site management capabilities—rebalancing frequency, tax frictions, custody chain—all hidden engineering challenges. The path of dividend reinvestment to increase BTC is compound interest on paper but continuous prestressing in engineering; overtensioning leads to brittle fracture.
The white paper is the design drawing, the ETF is the construction permit, but what determines whether this building can withstand the next cycle is the redundancy of the underlying architecture and the ductility of the joints. The 2% allocation is evolving from an experimental component to a standard practice, and the structural significance of this trend far exceeds the number itself.
A building with insufficient reinforcement ratio cannot withstand a shear wave no matter how beautiful the curtain wall is. #vaneckfranklinbtcetfsShort-term Key Variables and Observation Points
In the coming weeks, the direction of the crypto market is likely to be driven by the following events:
1. Federal Reserve FOMC Statement Wording: The October rate hike is fully priced in; the real signal lies in the strength of guidance on a December rate hike in the statement and press conference. If hawkish, the $80,000 support will be tested again; if flexibility is maintained, a brief respite may be possible.
2. Tech Giants' Earnings and AI Narrative: Capital expenditure guidance from Microsoft, Google, and Amazon will influence overall risk appetite. AI spending has a "diversion effect" on crypto funds—if tech stocks regain favor, marginal buying in the crypto market may further weaken.
3. Technical Significance of $80,000: Bitcoin has been oscillating between $80,000 and $82,500 for three weeks. A clear weekly close below $80,000 points to the next support near $76,000; reclaiming $82,500 is needed for short-term momentum improvement.
Summary: The current difficulties in the crypto market are not due to structural collapse within the industry but rather the combined effect of tightening macro liquidity expectations and shrinking risk appetite. Until inflation data shows substantial cooling or the Fed's rate path expectations shift, sustained upward momentum is unlikely. The $80,000 level is a key window to observe whether short-term sentiment slides from "neutral to slightly weak" toward "panic." $BTC $BTC
Once the midterm elections are settled, BTC can resume its upward trend — I half believe what the founder of CryptoQuant said.
The other half I leave to the market to decide. The real price is 81160, fluctuating between 80350 and 81786 in 24 hours, with a neutral 0.01% fee rate; neither bulls nor bears have secretly increased their positions. I trust the real money on the market over verbal judgments.
However, there is one set of data I am closely watching: the short-term holders' cost basis is 76,500. This group is still in profit and cannot be shaken out; only if it truly falls near that level will stop-loss selling flood in. So before this line breaks, I don't think there's any one-sided trade to make.
Also, a guy named Grant Cardone has made a million-dollar bet that BTC will reach 126,000 within two years. Betting is betting, but that's two years from now and has nothing to do with the current daily candle in front of me.
My stance: during these weeks of election hype, BTC is in this box range. Either wait for a pullback to 76,500 to see if it holds, or wait for it to break out with volume on its own. Around 81,000, I stay out and watch.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 A super low-pressure system with a central valuation approaching two trillion dollars is completing its numbering on the Nasdaq surface. The formation document submitted on October 26 was just its initial disturbance; what truly alerted the watch room was the sounding profile: precipitation in the first half of the year—i.e., revenue—was 16.3 billion, a fourteenfold year-on-year increase, yet the eyewall simultaneously carried a net loss of 80.7 billion, of which 72.4 billion was non-cash valuation adjustments, not a single drop reaching the ground. Excluding this part, the actual business loss was 693 million.
This vertical structure is called an elevated thunderstorm in meteorology: the cloud tops surge very high, radar echoes are dazzlingly bright, but the dry layer at the bottom is too thick, resulting in extremely low precipitation efficiency. The market only focuses on the bright temperature at the cloud top and assumes a heavy rainstorm is coming.
Looking at its water vapor flux commitment—the long-term computing power expenditure cap is 750 billion. This is the convergence budget for the next decade, equivalent to staking all the water vapor in the entire monsoon trough. The problem has never been how high the clouds can grow, but whether the precipitation efficiency can keep up. A fourteenfold increase is a typical feature of a strong convective outbreak period, but the outbreak period will not last forever. Once the stratification turns stable, the revenue curve will quickly flatten, while computing power expenditure is a rigid downdraft. The pressure gradient between the two will sooner or later tear open a front.
On the November 16 window, if priced between 1.5 trillion and 2 trillion, it will surpass the previous listing record of 1.77 trillion, becoming the strongest landing ever observed. But historical data repeatedly remind us: the lower the central pressure, the more frequent the eyewall replacement before landing, and the greater the path deviation. The linkage logic of tokenized US stock targets is very simple—it is not a weather forecast, it is a barometer; the wind has not arrived, but the mercury column moves first; volatility will react before valuation, and price spreads will precede volume expansion.
The watch room's current judgment: this is an explosive deepening process, with a complete warm-core structure, but the upper-level divergence conditions are still unclear, and numerical models still show huge divergence in its path. What really needs monitoring is not the 2 trillion central pressure reading, but the actual precipitation in the second half of next year—whether revenue can continue convection or will prematurely hit the inversion layer, locking all the water vapor at the cloud base.
Eyewall replacement has already begun; before the next sounding data comes out, any judgment on rain or shine is a gamble. #anthropicipofiled[The Federal Reserve Targets South Korea, AI Still a Hot Topic]
Wachtel specifically emphasized that his concern for the South Korean economy "exceeds your imagination," and there is a very direct reason behind this: South Korea is providing key components for the U.S. AI boom. Chip $SKHY exports and semiconductor equipment investments are upstream thermometers for the expansion of U.S. AI infrastructure. South Korea's Q3 GDP grew 1% quarter-on-quarter, higher than the market expectation of 0.7%, with semiconductors estimated to contribute about half of the economic growth.
No matter how attractive AI returns are, they cannot escape interest rates. Rising financing costs will affect data center construction, computing power procurement, and corporate capital expenditures; if demand for Korean chips cools, the investment chain of U.S. tech companies may also come under pressure. Wachtel has previously made it clear that AI investment is not an "immune zone" for monetary policy.
Wachtel's focus on South Korea is not a sudden interest in the Asian economy but an observation of whether AI demand can continue to transmit to the U.S. Currently, South Korean exports and equipment investments remain strong, but private consumption has already declined 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, so the economy is not fully booming. For the market, what really needs to be watched next is whether chip orders and corporate investments are slowing down; once this chain weakens, the pressure on AI concept stocks may be more tangible than one or two Federal Reserve statements.$FIL filcoin project, what is the total real income of the entire network per day now?
Conclusion first: Filecoin's entire network "real income" depends on how you define it; different metrics differ by several orders of magnitude. Below are separate calculations.
1. On-chain total fees / protocol revenue (most commonly used metric)
According to DefiLlama data on 2026-10-27:
Chain Fees (24h): $19,083
Chain Revenue (24h): $19,083
Details "actual user paid fees": about $21,815/day
Sector Alpha aggregated 30-day fees up to 2026-10-23 are $83.9K, averaging about $2,800/day, roughly the same scale as the latest value above (with recent fluctuations).
This layer of income mainly includes Gas fees, Base Fee burns, penalties, and other on-chain economic activities, not the money from storage orders themselves.
2. External customers' "real cash paid storage fees"
This is the strictly defined "real business income," and the numbers are very small:
Onchain Cloud (new paid warm storage service) from 2025-11 to 2026-08 totaled only $1,676
Annualized: about $2,000/day or less (daily average ~$5.5)
Old storage market from 2025-05 to 2026-08, out of over 17 million transactions, only 21,000 involved payments, total paid 0.0488 FIL
Filecoin Pay transactions $53,932, of which $51,140 came from the same wallet to the same address, so it cannot be counted as decentralized real demand
In other words, external customers' real storage payment averages at the "thousand-dollar level or even lower" per day.
3. Block rewards (not counted as real income but often mixed in)
The entire network mints about 56,000–60,000 FIL daily
At FIL ≈ $0.9–1.1, nominal value is $50,000–66,000/day
Essentially inflation subsidies, not income; after the Solstice upgrade, this part will gradually link to "bringing paying customers"
Summary comparison
Metric
Estimated daily income
Notes
On-chain total fees/protocol revenue
About $19,000–22,000
Gas + burns + penalties
External customer storage payments
Thousand-dollar level (<$1,000)
Real business cash flow
Block rewards (nominal)
$50,000–66,000
Inflation subsidy, not income
So the question "What is Filecoin's entire network real income per day now?":
Answer by on-chain metric: about $20,000/day
Answer by "actual money customers pay for storing data": less than $1,000/day, possibly only a few to tens of dollars on some low-activity days
This is why the market often says FIL is "narrative far greater than cash flow"—the storage infrastructure is running, but paying demand has not yet picked up.
Do you want to continue to see income trends, miner net income, or compare income with Arweave and Storj? 【Market Real-Time Quotes】$BTC $81,290 (+0.51%), $ETH $2,360 (+0.45%), $SOL $103 (+1.31%), $BNB $757 (+1.57%)【Market Real-Time Quotes】. Fear and Greed Index at 51, neutral. On the surface, this looks like a typical "bad news turning into good news" scenario. 👇 But breaking down the structure, what truly deserves attention today are three mutually contradictory signals: 🏦 Fed's Rift: Interest rates remain at 3.75%–4.00%, as expected. However, the vote changed from 12:0 last round to 10:2, with Harker and Cook dissenting. The market is unsure whether these two votes oppose tightening or loosening; consensus is starting to loosen. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in December has risen to 86%. 💥 Shorts Are Being Squeezed: In the past 24 hours, about $132 million in liquidations occurred network-wide, with short liquidations at $94.24 million, accounting for 71.31%, which is 2.5 times the long liquidations. $BTC short liquidations account for **78%**, $ETH 69%. Prices are moving up, and those shorting are being consumed in reverse. 📉 Retail Trading Engine Cooling Down: Robinhood's Q3 crypto trading revenue was $120 million, a year-over-year plunge of 55%; crypto trading volume was $50 billion, down 38% year-over-year. Meanwhile, its prediction market (event contracts) revenue reached $173 million, soaring over 6 times year-over-year, already surpassing crypto revenue. Market reaction to this earnings report isETH does not have a unified “whale standard”; thresholds vary across different platforms, distinct from BTC (≥1000 BTC) criteria: The two most commonly used classifications within the community (Santiment / Glassnode) 1. Super Whales: ≥100,000 ETH Very few addresses, ranging from several dozen to over sixty. ⚠️ The majority here are: Beacon Chain staking contracts, exchange custody wallets, ETF custody addresses; genuine individual whales are very rare. 2. Standard Whales: ≥10,000 ETH (the tier most closely watched) Approximately 800 to 1100 addresses; this tier represents the whales commonly referred to who actively trade and influence the market, including funds, large holders, and institutional self-custody wallets. 3. Large Holders/Sharks: ≥1,000 ETH This tier has many more addresses, numbering in the thousands, including many mid-sized funds, staking service providers, and DeFi treasuries. The most important misconception (same as BTC) Address ≠ real independent person - Beacon Chain deposit contracts, Lido, Coinbase staking pools, and major exchange cold wallets are all counted as whale addresses; - One whale can split assets across dozens of wallets; one wallet can hold funds from tens of thousands of retail users (custody). Therefore, on-chain data can only count wallet addresses and cannot accurately determine how many independent “people” are whales. A brief comparison with the BTC standard you just asked about: - BTC whale standard: ≥1000 BTC,CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju expressed the view that as the U.S. midterm elections gradually approach, the market continues to price in the regulatory and fiscal policy uncertainties brought by the elections. Once the elections conclude and uncertainties dissipate, Bitcoin is expected to enter a new round of upward momentum. He analyzed the current market situation, pointing out that although Bitcoin ETF inflows have nearly stalled this year, Bitcoin's price has only slightly retreated by 7%, showing price resilience beyond expectations. This phenomenon indirectly indicates that large-scale sell-offs by market whales and miners have basically ended, and market selling pressure has been fully released, laying the groundwork for subsequent market rallies. Reviewing historical market trends, excluding the very early stages when the market size was minimal, Bitcoin has averaged gains of over 50% within 12 months after several past U.S. midterm elections. The conclusion of midterm elections and clearer policy expectations are often important triggers for risk assets to start rising. However, analysts also caution that elections are just one of many influencing factors. Whether Bitcoin can truly start an uptrend ultimately depends on Federal Reserve monetary policy, U.S. Treasury yield trends, and whether spot ETF inflows can resume net positive. If the high interest rate environment persists, relying solely on election expectations will hardly support Bitcoin in sustaining a large-scale bull market. There are also divergent views within the market. Some institutional research reports suggest that even if the election results are finalized, if a divided Congress emerges, legislation related to crypto assets will still be deadlocked, and regulatory uncertainties will not completely disappear, potentially affecting the market's trajectory.[Microsoft Earns Cash Back Through AI, While Google Is Scared by Burn Rate and Drops]
Both are investing heavily in AI, but Microsoft $MSFT is clearly more favored by the market this time. Quarterly revenue reached $92.3 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, with Azure growth hitting 48%, and it expects to accelerate further to 49%–50% next quarter. Commercial order backlog reached $677 billion, indicating customers are indeed continuing to pay.
What reassures investors even more is the cash flow: Microsoft’s free cash flow reached $18.6 billion, far exceeding the market expectation of about $8.5 billion; capital expenditures were $45.2 billion, also below the previous expectation of about $50 billion. After-hours stock price rose over 4%, as the market finally sees that AI investment is not just burning money but also generating revenue and cash.
Of course, part of the reduced spending this time is due to delays in third-party computing power delivery, so it can’t all be counted as efficiency improvement. Microsoft’s real advantage is that while Azure accelerates growth, cash flow remains strong. The AI arms race continues; going forward, it’s not about who spends more, but who can convert computing power into cash faster—that’s who will have the confidence to keep investing.
#微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？ Dogecoin (DOGE) Whale (Whale) Classification Criteria (Market General Standard) - 🐬 Dolphin: 1 million~10 million DOGE - 🦈 Shark: 10 million~100 million DOGE - 🐳 Whale: ≥ 100 million DOGE (can clearly drive market trends) - 🦑 Super Whale: ≥ 1 billion DOGE (institutional/exchange level) Quantity and Token Situation According to Santiment: There are about 140 wallets holding 100 million DOGE ≥, and these addresses collectively hold over 108 billion DOGE, with token concentration far higher than BTC and ETH. Key pitfall: The top spot on the rich list isn't a big player, but Robinhood's custodial cold wallet (about 27.2 billion DOGE, about 17.5% of circulating supply), which contains hundreds of thousands of retail investors' tokens, not just one person's; Second place is Upbit, third is Binance, both are exchange custody wallets, which are user asset custodians, not private whales. The legendary super address that once held nearly 30% DOGE was split at the end of 2021 and is no longer a single whale. Features (compared to BTC/ETH whales) 1. DOGE is a meme coin with thinner liquidity. A truly private whale makes a large transfer or dumping the market, causing much more volatility than BTC or ETH, which easily triggers crash sentiment and triggers chain liquidations. 2. Highly concentrated chips: the top 10 addresses together account for the circulating marketWhen I see news about this type of institution entering the market, I usually hold back my excitement first. I don't play with high leverage; I hold spot positions long-term. When reading news, I'm more concerned about what it changes rather than how long it can keep the market lively.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries, Germany's fourth-largest asset management company, DekaBank, disclosed for the first time that it bought 104,921 shares of the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy, valued at about $15.2 million. I would highlight "disclosed for the first time" because it doesn't mean we already know the full buying process.
My judgment is that this is a small signal of traditional asset management getting involved with Bitcoin-related assets, but it's not strong enough evidence to consider it a long-term value indicator. They bought company stock, not Bitcoin directly, so this amount can't be counted as new spot buying; stocks are also affected by company operations and financing arrangements, so they can't be equated with holding coins. The data also doesn't show what proportion this holding is of their portfolio. Just looking at the amount, it's hard to judge how much the institution values it.
As for me, I hold without moving and am more interested in whether there will be continuous disclosures later, rather than imagining a trend from a single piece of news. Taking it slow is fine; don't treat the news of institutions buying stocks as a reason to increase your own leverage. For friends holding long-term, will you see this disclosure as a signal of allocation trends, or will you wait for changes in holdings before making a judgment?$ETH big money is quietly making big moves.
In 11 days, 1,847 BTC were sold, then all smashed into ETH at an average price of 2,400, directly lifting 63,000 ETH out.
On the other side, the company Bitmine's holdings are almost 5% of the entire network, and in a single week, they bought over 10,000 ETH against the market trend despite the sell-off.
Exchanges had a net outflow of 160,000 ETH in a single day, with all chips moving into wallets.
Paper chips are flying everywhere, but on-chain spot is all locked up. The market looks soft at this position, but underneath, all the hard assets are being accumulated.
#ETH
$ETH
👇What’s truly worth the crypto community’s attention in Microsoft’s earnings report isn’t the revenue, but that $170 billion.
Capital expenditures exceeded $50 billion in Q2, with a full-year capital expenditure guidance of about $170 billion, accelerating further in the second half of fiscal 2027. Revenue guidance is $96 billion to $97.1 billion, with Azure growth expected at 49%. After the earnings release, the stock jumped 6% in after-hours trading. A company worth trillions of dollars is maintaining positive cash flow while investing its profits aggressively.
This indicates the AI arms race hasn’t slowed down; it’s actually speeding up. Computing power is the ammunition, and no one dares to back off first because doing so means handing customers over to competitors. Therefore, the capital expenditure curve is much steeper than the revenue curve, and the after-hours price surge is the market’s vote.
The transmission to the crypto market isn’t through servers but through liquidity. The world’s wealthiest companies continuously converting cash into computing power assets means risk appetite hasn’t waned. What Bitcoin fears most has never been negative news but the lack of incremental funds coming in. This scale of spending itself is a signal of new capital.
There is a cost. The more expensive computing power becomes, the greater the pressure on miners’ electricity bills and hardware depreciation. Computing power continues to concentrate in low-cost regions and large mining farms, squeezing out space for small and medium miners, with no short-term reversal expected.
So, in the short term, rising computing power costs are bad news for miners; in the medium term, loose liquidity is good news for holders. The bottom for $BTC and $ETH depends on whether capital is willing to pay a premium for the future.
Don’t chase the highs; wait for a pullback confirmation. Today, let's first look at the capital inflow, but we can't rush to judge a reversal yet.
BTC spot and futures are flowing in simultaneously, ETH mainly sees leveraged funds replenishing, while SOL has spot buying support but futures continue to retreat. These three capital structures represent three different strengths and weaknesses.
BTC spot net inflow in 4 hours is $63.39 million, futures net inflow is $9.02 million. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $229 million, futures net inflow is $139 million. However, over 30 days, spot still has a net outflow of $724 million, and futures a net outflow of $6.63 billion. Short-term funds have indeed returned, but mid-term deleveraging is not over yet.
ETH spot net outflow in 4 hours is $1.52 million, but futures net inflow is $39.74 million. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $32.01 million, futures net inflow is $228 million. The intensity of futures inflow is clearly stronger than spot, indicating this round of replenishment relies more on leverage. Over 30 days, spot net outflow is $3.07 billion, futures net outflow is $7.33 billion, so the mid-term structure remains weak.
SOL spot net inflow in 4 hours is $220,000, futures net outflow is $19.98 million; over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $39.02 million, futures net outflow is $27.9 million. Over 30 days, spot still has a net inflow of $39.6 million. But futures have a cumulative net outflow of $1.83 billion, indicating spot is being supported by buyers, but leveraged funds are still withdrawing.
Currently, BTC has the best structure, SOL has spot support, ETH has the greatest short-term elasticity but also the highest leverage risk. 🐋 Whale's triple short positions show unrealized losses but remain calm: funding fees become "lifeline cash flow"
On-chain big player activity spotted again: the same whale shorts BTC, ETH, and SOL simultaneously on perpetual contracts. All three positions show unrealized losses, but the whale relies on continuous funding fee income to hold the positions, a typical "fee-eating long-term short" strategy.
📊 Position breakdown:
✅ $BTC | 5x full position short, 2,613.29 contracts, market value 210 million U
Opened at 76,343.5 U, unrealized loss 10.5955 million U, funding fees collected 3.1767 million U, liquidation price 137,300.27.
✅ $ETH | 5x full position short, 106,400 contracts, market value 250 million U
Opened at 2,322.74 U, unrealized loss 1.5599 million U, funding fees collected 4.302 million U, liquidation price 3,723.54.
✅ $SOL | 7x full position short, 719,900 contracts, market value 72.6776 million U
Opened at 94.3199 U, unrealized loss 4.7799 million U, funding fees collected 3.8379 million U.
Combined unrealized loss across three positions is about 16.9353 million U, total funding fees collected 11.3166 million U, net unrealized loss after offset is 5.6187 million U; total margin exceeds 102 million U, liquidation prices are far from current prices, so short-term forced liquidation pressure is low.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元
$SKHYNIX's revenue has hit a new high again, and operating profit also reached a new peak.
The stock price has risen from the previous low of around 850 to about 1100 currently.
However, relatively disappointing is the decline in net profit, which fell short of market expectations, but fortunately it is not an operational loss.
The main cause is exchange losses (11.6 trillion KRW).
Due to the appreciation of the Korean won against the US dollar during the reporting period, there was a book loss when converting its foreign currency assets back into Korean won.
Secondly, there was an investment asset valuation loss (22.9 trillion KRW), mainly from the fair value revaluation of investment assets such as Kioxia.
However, Hynix expects the tight memory supply and demand to continue until 2030.
Fortunately, more than half of the capacity for 2027-2028 is already covered by long-term agreements, and investment in 2027 is expected to increase significantly. Observing AI investments and profit margins, it seems that investments are slowing down and profit margins are declining 🤔 Watch out for risks!$ETH Big bro Maji is walking the tightrope again.
Added 40 ETH from unrealized profits, long position piled up to 272 ETH. This time not a single cent was added, all relying on unrealized profits to roll hard, $22,000 margin holding a $645,000 position, actual leverage close to 29x.
The liquidation price has been pushed up all the way to 2,334, current price is only $35 away from the liquidation line.
Just $35 short, let's see if he quickly tops up or just sets off fireworks.Institutional Holdings in This Game: More Coins Locked Up, But No New Money Following
Let's talk some hard numbers. Globally, publicly listed companies (excluding mining firms) collectively hold 1,167,845 BTC, accounting for 5.8% of the circulating market cap, valued at about $93.6 billion; just last week, net purchases totaled $510 million, with Strive alone spending $510 million at an average price of 82,732 to buy 6,182 BTC. Sounds impressive, but breaking it down: Strategy didn't buy that week, nor did Metaplanet. In other words, buying is shifting from "one dominant player" to "several sharing the load," and a new round of collective surge hasn't formed yet. Additionally, the approximately 328,000 BTC held by the U.S. government are confiscated reserves—they won't be actively sold or newly purchased—so the circulating supply is actually being slowly locked up. From a long-term perspective, this is a base position logic; from a short-term view, without new capital inflow, locked holdings can't push the price up. Uptober This year is basically a total bust
Here's a harsh truth: Bitcoin is very likely to close October down this year. As of October 25, it has already dropped 4.2% this month; October 2025 was -3.8%, while the average gain for October from 2020 to 2025 is 22.5%. The mystical "October must rise" theory has been proven wrong two years in a row. The reasons are not mystical: weak US spot demand, AI stocks sucking up money, and interest rates still rising. CryptoQuant's bull market score index also fell from 90 to 60. I actually think this is a phase favored by veterans—retail investors no longer talk about the "October surge" story, leverage is decreasing, and the selling pressure of old coins on-chain is also weakening. The bottom is never shouted out; it is slowly ground out when no one talks about it anymore.#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
【Cloud Business Doubles, But Stock Price Drops Nearly 10%】
Google $GOOGL is growing its business bigger and bigger, yet shareholders are the first to get scared away. Q3 revenue reached $127.6 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase; Google Cloud revenue hit $30.7 billion, doubling directly, with operating profit also up 30%. AI computing power is indeed being paid for, and the cloud business has started turning demand into real cash.
The investment is just too aggressive, a bit hard to sustain. Google’s single-quarter capital expenditure was $51.4 billion, free cash flow turned negative $9.1 billion, and full-year capital expenditure is still expected to reach $195 billion to $205 billion. Management also forecasted a significant increase in investment continuing through 2027. Meanwhile, net profit fell 25% year-over-year, mainly dragged down by about $8.7 billion in equity investment losses, not a sudden slowdown in core business.
The market worries that AI revenue is growing too fast, while the bills for building data centers, buying chips, and power supply are also rising quickly. Cloud business backlog orders have reached $561 billion, indicating strong demand, but order fulfillment and investment returns both require time.
The nearly 10% drop after hours is not because the market doesn’t see AI growth, but because it wants to know when this money-burning race will truly pay off. What Google needs to prove next is that revenue growth can outpace capital expenditure; otherwise, the hotter the cloud business gets, the more shareholders have to pay upfront for the future.Brothers, the pain point list has been updated again, with big changes compared to a few hours ago.
BTC gravity is biased upward at 65%, with 38.99 million short orders stacked above 81869. This is similar to before; the short orders above are still heavier, so the market maker will most likely pull up a bit more to sweep the shorts.
But ETH's pattern has changed — previously biased upward at 68%, now biased downward at 62%. ETH dropped to 2359, with 22.56 million long orders stacked below 2332 and 21.46 million short orders stacked above 2402. The long orders below have already exceeded the short orders above. This means if ETH drops further, it will first trigger the batch of long orders at 2332.
SOL also shifted from biased upward 55% to biased downward 66%, with 4.34 million long orders stacked below 101.16. Once SOL breaks below 101, the long orders will cascade explode.
BNB is the strongest, biased upward 86%, with the heaviest short order pain point above 775. ZEC is biased upward 67%, XRP biased upward 62%.
I think the current situation is very subtle — BTC is still sweeping shorts upward, but ETH and SOL have already started to look downward to trigger long orders. This indicates funds are concentrating from altcoins back to BTC.
If tonight's PCE turns hawkish, ETH and SOL will most likely fall first, while BTC will be relatively resistant to the drop. Don't open longs on all coins simultaneously; funds now only recognize BTC.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Can the storage sector usher in a new round of rebound? SK Hynix has already delivered an answer.
SK Hynix's latest earnings report is indeed strong: revenue of 104 trillion KRW, operating profit margin as high as 80%, and DRAM average selling price up nearly 30% quarter-on-quarter. This indicates that the current price increase in storage is still supported by performance, and demand for high-end products is also improving.
What is even more noteworthy are the long-term contract orders. The number of customers increased from about 10 to 14, and over half of the capacity for 2027–2028 is already covered by agreements. The volume and price negotiations for HBM customers in 2027 have also been completed. For storage companies, the higher the order visibility, the more support there is for profits in the coming quarters.
This earnings report is also a positive signal for SanDisk $SNDK. Improved enterprise SSD demand and stronger NAND prices at least indicate that industry demand has not yet shown signs of a comprehensive downturn. What I look forward to more is how much of these price increases will ultimately convert into SanDisk's gross profit and cash flow.
Next, the focus is on Samsung and SanDisk. If Samsung continues its strong performance, the market's profit expectations for the storage industry may continue to be revised upward, providing more fundamental support for the sector's rebound.
However, SK Hynix's expansion into high-end NAND and enterprise SSD layouts may also become competitive pressure for SanDisk in the future. An upward industry trend is a common benefit, but after capacity expansion, the market will ultimately compare whose profit growth is faster.
In the short term, watch price increases; in the medium term, watch profit realization; in the long term, watch supply and demand patterns.
#SK海力士Q3營收首破100萬億韓元 The U.S. Treasury Secretary's remarks should be seriously listened to by long-term holders
At the Swell conference in New York on October 27, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made it very clear: USD stablecoins are not speculative toys; they are infrastructure to maintain the dollar's reserve status. Currently, over 90% of stablecoins are pegged to the dollar, and the GENIUS Act requires issuers to hold cash or U.S. Treasuries 1:1. The logic is simple: for every expansion of stablecoins, there is one more buyer of U.S. Treasuries. She also took a jab at the CLARITY Act—which failed in the Senate in September by a 49:50 vote, missing by 11 votes. This is indirectly positive for BTC: the smoother the compliance channels, the less awkward institutional entry becomes. But don't get excited in the short term; legislation takes time to implement, and price reactions depend on real cash ETFs and earnings reports, not just a speech to pump the market.The wall above 87,000 is not something that can be broken through by emotion alone.
Some analysts using Glassnode data say that above $87,000 there is a large amount of trapped chips. Historically, every time the price touches that area, it is often followed by a 25% or even deeper pullback. Looking further down at support: between 80,000 and 81,500 is the average holding cost of spot ETFs and the buy order book zone. So the current pattern is very clear — there is a position to unwind above, a support position below, and 80,000 fluctuates in the middle. On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 within the year is only 17%, which is a completely different world from the six-figure calls at the beginning of the year. I don't see this as despair; rather, it indicates the bubble has been mostly squeezed out. In trading, don't chase; wait for it to either break 87,000 with volume or pull back to 78,500–80,000 to be supported by funds before making a move.Strategy stopped buying, and this is more important than the earnings report
Latest disclosure from Strategy: As of October 25, it holds 848,517 BTC with an average cost of about $75,446, and still has $5.1 billion in cash. But note, from October 19 to 25, it didn’t buy a single coin, nor did it issue ATM stock to raise funds. So where did the money go? $205 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred shares. Looking ahead, in Q3 it recorded $21 billion in digital asset gains from coin price revaluation, its first profit in four quarters, yet the amount spent on repurchasing its own preferred shares during the same period was eight to nine times the amount spent on buying coins. Seller hasn’t called it quits, but he eased off the gas. For the crypto world, the biggest “infinite buy order” has hit pause, and you need to note this signal in your trading notes. Tonight it will release the Q3 earnings report, which will be the next trigger point.My first reaction upon seeing this message was to calculate the profit first, not to rush into the AI hype. The real accounting is how much profit remains after deducting costs when the business scales up.
Alphabet's Q3 revenue was $127.6 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase; Google Cloud revenue was $30.7 billion, a 103% year-over-year increase. Operating margin was 31.8%, meaning $31.8 operating profit per $100 revenue. However, earnings per share dropped from $2.87 last year to $2.12, which is also an important figure not to overlook.
My judgment is that cloud business growth is substantial but cannot be directly regarded as a positive for on-chain AI projects. Cloud revenue is actual business, which is different from hype around concepts; operating profit growth did not translate into synchronized earnings per share growth, indicating that focusing solely on growth rate can overlook risks.
I would choose a more stable approach: focus on whether demand can be sustained, and not take the big companies' results as endorsement for all AI projects. When facing such doubling growth news, do you wait for more solid profitability performance, or are you willing to take the risk and bet on the spread of the AI narrative?Looking at the ETF accounts this week, I feel a bit disheartened
Data from SoSoValue: On October 27th Eastern Time, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $176 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone taking in $151 million. Sounds pretty good, right? But if you zoom out—the first three weeks of October looked like this: Week 1 +$241 million, Week 2 -$681 million, Week 3 -$229 million, Week 4 rebounded with +$443 million. Calculated for the whole month, it's still a net outflow of about $175 million. September had a full-month net inflow of $2.6 billion, and August $3.5 billion. In other words, buying is coming back, but it hasn't yet filled this month's gap. Even more disheartening is that Coinbase's premium has been negative for 33 consecutive days, currently at -0.15%, showing that domestic spot buying in the U.S. is weak. For the price to really move, we need to see the ETF not just heat up for a day, but stay green for three to five consecutive days.Why "no rate hike" hasn't pushed the crypto price up
Many people wonder: the interest rate hasn't changed, so why hasn't BTC skyrocketed? Let me break it down for you. First, the September CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, core CPI 2.6%, both higher than last month, with energy as the driving force; second, the University of Michigan's long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.5%, and the one-year expectation to 4.7%, both the highest since May. Inflation isn't coming down, so interest rates remain high or may even rise. Bitcoin is tightly linked to tech stocks—by mid-October, its correlation with the US stock market was the highest since the end of May. So the current "good news" is just that things aren't worse, not that they've improved. If you want to bottom-fish, wait for signals: either the 10-year US Treasury yield turns back from around 5.01%, or ETFs buy real money continuously for several days.