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Microsoft Earnings Forecast: I Choose NO, The Key Lies in the Odds
I'm not bearish on Microsoft, but I believe the 67¢ for YES requires a high win rate and may not offer enough price advantage.
Microsoft will release its fiscal Q1 2027 earnings after the U.S. market close on October 28. The market expects revenue around $90.6 billion and EPS about $4.71–$4.72, depending on accounting standards. Previously, Azure grew about 43% year-over-year, with cloud demand and AI orders supporting performance, but the real market question is whether growth can continue to exceed expectations.
The risk is that Microsoft’s ongoing expansion of AI infrastructure investment, capital expenditures, and depreciation may squeeze margins. If Azure growth does not exceed guidance or future outlook is not optimistic, even revenue and profit growth may not meet market standards. Conversely, if cloud business accelerates, margins remain solid, and guidance is raised, YES has more advantage.
Therefore, I lean toward NO but will not chase the price.
This is not a bet on Microsoft’s fundamentals deteriorating, but rather a belief that the market may be overestimating the probability of exceeding expectations. The key is not whether Microsoft can deliver good results, but whether it can do better than the market expects Meta needs to update this news: the initial issuance was about $35 billion, but after pricing, it expanded to about $37.5 billion, with the common stock portion increasing from $22.5 billion to $25 billion, and an additional $12.5 billion related to mandatory convertible preferred stock issuance.
But what I care more about this time is that the common stock portion adopted a forward sale arrangement.
According to the announcement, Meta does not expect to receive this portion of funds immediately at the initial issuance of common stock, but will receive the corresponding funds upon settlement of the subsequent forward agreement, expected to be settled no later than November 19, 2027.
Therefore, "pricing completion" and "all funds have entered the company's account" cannot be considered the same point in time.
This arrangement allows the company to organize financing in advance and then choose settlement according to subsequent funding needs. For Meta, which is laying out AI infrastructure, whether the funding rhythm matches the project rhythm is worth continued observation.
The preferred stock portion also has a 6.5% annual dividend arrangement, indicating that capital is not free.
Yesterday, everyone mainly discussed the financing scale; today, I want to clearly see when the cash will come and what costs are borne. I have no objection to supporting AI construction; but after obtaining capital market support, the company must also prove that it can arrange financing conditions and construction progress well. When big projects spend money, they won’t wait until shareholder sentiment is ready to start.
#Meta启动350亿美元融资，支持AI基建 🔷 CryptoX-ray #17: $TAO - ETF in queue, price −67%
Limit 21 million, but issuance ≈1,314 million TAO per year (≈11%, gross valuation).
The token pays by issuance, not by revenue share. Red flag: PoA at the chain level. Grayscale filed S-1 for GTAO listing on October 23: this is an application, not approval.
Verdict: watch, no entry.
Are you waiting for an ETF catalyst or will issuance eat demand? 👇Gold rebounds above 4,000 (+0.42%), BTC holds at 80,000. Both safe-haven and risk assets recover simultaneously—what does this indicate? First, the news. Three numbers: Gold 4,024.8 (+0.42%, spot 4,014.00), BTC 80,057 (-0.46%, nearly one week -3.09%), US Dollar Index 102.08 (+0.11%). On the capital side: BTC ETF latest single-day net outflow of 32.6 million (significantly narrowed from 117.2 million the previous day), 5-day net inflow of 294.8 million, 10-day net inflow of 128.9 million. On the sentiment side: Fear & Greed Index from 50 to 48. On the stock market side: S&P 500 at 7,676.77 (+0.70%). Next, looking at capital impact. Gold and BTC recover simultaneously, US stocks rise—this is a typical combination indicating easing liquidity pressure. But we must distinguish two types of recovery: one is a return of buying interest in the assets themselves (healthy), the other is a passive rise caused by a weakening dollar (unhealthy). Today, the dollar strengthened (+0.11%), indicating the recovery comes from the assets' own buying interest, which is higher quality. Implications for BTC: gold reclaiming 4,000, BTC holding 80,000, and US stocks rising—all three markets improving simultaneously suggests the worst may be behind us. However, the Fear & Greed Index remains at 48, indicating market confidence has not yet recovered—this "price recovery with lagging sentiment" combination is usually an opportunity rather than a risk. I will next focus on four indicators: first, whether gold can hold above 4,000; second, BT My Bitcoin trading strategy for October 28.
The Bitcoin trading plan I made yesterday is still proceeding as expected. Bitcoin is currently experiencing a short-term rebound, but the overall market structure on the daily chart has not yet confirmed a bullish reversal.
On the H1 timeframe, if BTC closes above 81,300, it may continue to rebound to the 81,600 to 82,000 range, which is also a potential liquidity area I need to watch.
My trading strategy
I tend to wait for Bitcoin to rebound to the 81.6k-82k range. If there is a confirmed selling pressure signal in that range, I will consider shorting to the 79.5k-78.5k range.
Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold an interest rate decision meeting at 1 AM tomorrow. Please pay attention to fund management!
This is just my personal opinion and not investment advice!
What do you think? $BTC Did it later rebound to around 82k? Let me know, and we can discuss!14 coins will be forcibly swapped to USDC after 2 days, causing a shakeup in European stablecoins
Starting October 30, Coinbase will automatically swap 14 coins including USDT held by European users into USDC. Those who don’t swap must withdraw themselves; deposits made after expiration won’t be recognized.
Kaiko data from October 27: USDC already accounts for 56% of euro stablecoin trading volume, up from just 10% in January 2024, with an order book 40% deeper than USDT’s.
From November 12, the European Banking Authority will directly monitor Circle’s reserves. USDC is the EU’s first "significant electronic money token."
But don’t overestimate the turnaround: euro stablecoins account for less than 8% of euro trading volume, and USDT’s global circulation is still 2.5 times that of USDC.
I think compliance wins the table, not the game. Europe’s approach will eventually be copied by the US—OCC released the GENIUS rules on October 21, requiring US platforms to restrict sales of non-compliant coins starting July 2028. The critical point is that after October 30, USDT’s trading volume in Europe did not decrease but increased.
Do you think Europe’s move is giving money to USDC or users to USDT?
$USDC $USDT $COIN
#stablecoin #MiCAThe Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is about to take place, with the interest rate decision announced at 2 AM Beijing time, followed by Powell's press conference at 2:30 AM. The market consensus currently expects the rate to remain unchanged, so the real factor determining market direction is not the rate decision itself, but the signals Powell releases in his speech—whether hawkish, dovish, or neutral. Each stance will bring different volatility to the entire crypto community.
Many people tend to heavily bet on the direction in advance, trying to profit from the big moves after the news comes out. However, experience from past major macro meetings shows that at the moment the news lands, liquidity tightens rapidly, and both long and short positions often get hit with quick spikes. Whether going long or short, high-leverage positions are easily stopped out, and betting on the news often results in principal losses.
Given the current market environment, I personally prefer a more prudent approach. First, control your position size well; prioritize reducing or exiting high-leverage contracts and avoid putting most of your funds on this single news event.
If the speech signals dovishness, indicating inflation is easing and there is room for future rate cuts, the dollar will weaken, funds will flow into risk assets, and the market will have upward momentum. But be cautious of buying the rumor and selling the fact—there is a trap of a quick pullback after a sharp rise, so don’t blindly chase the rally. $SNDK #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
The Federal Reserve's decision will be announced today (October 28) at 2 PM Eastern Time, which corresponds to around 2 AM tomorrow in Hong Kong time. We are still waiting for the results, and the market generally expects no change, no rate hike.
Many people think that no rate hike will trigger a big rebound, but I think it's not that simple.
$BTC is still hovering around 80,000 with low volume and no confirmed direction. ETH is relatively weaker, with a moderate rebound. Altcoins are clearly diverging; most still follow Bitcoin and don't have independent trends, making them vulnerable to sudden drops.
If the decision meets expectations, short-term sentiment might push up again, and BTC and $ETH could follow with a rally, bringing altcoins up as well. But for a real big rebound, it depends on whether sustained real money flows in afterward, not just on expectations.
On Thursday (Friday morning Hong Kong time), there will be PCE inflation data. As long as it doesn't exceed expectations, it's positive and the market will breathe a sigh of relief; if it exceeds, the previous optimism will be discounted.
Personally, I still think the downside space isn't finished. Even if there's a rebound after the decision, it's more likely to prepare for further declines, with targets around 75,000-76,000 for a cleanup. ETH and altcoins will suffer more.
Don't rush to chase the rally now. Wait for the decision and PCE data to come out, confirm volume and direction before making a move for more stability.
#PCE "Don't Mistake 'Standing Still' for the Endgame"
Tonight's focus is not on whether the rate hike will pause. Ninety percent of bets have already laid out the answer clearly; the more unanimous the expectation, the easier it is to become an entry point for a reverse harvest. If Powell leans dovish, it will at most bring a brief pulse; Friday's GDP and PCE are the chained follow-ups, and the market may first lure then kill.
$BTC's slight rise now looks more like emotional support; long-term funds have not heavily invested, and ETFs have not formed a sustained trend. If it surges on pause expectations, chasing the high is unwise; the rally may create room for a subsequent drop. Spot can be stable, short-term must cut losses, and shorting should not be held through.
$ETH remains a weak follower: the ecosystem lacks new highlights, and funds are insufficient to support. When Bitcoin pulls back, Ethereum often breaks down first; sideways movement does not equal support, and before major macro tests, it is harder to independently hold the market—don't rush to catch a falling knife.
$XAUT Gold is the true safe-haven mainline. High interest rates and geopolitical risks coexist, with central bank buying as a floor; once economic data shows pressure, gold may develop an independent trend. Its hard logic is stronger than the crypto circle, so don't use short-term fluctuations to make long-term judgments.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 The market already expected the Fed to hold rates steady. What matters now is whether December brings another surprise.
BTC is trading around a critical zone between $80K and $81.5K. A move back above $82K with solid volume would be a better sign of recovery. Without that confirmation, it's too early to call this a trend reversal.
ETH is still struggling below $2,400, with continued ETF outflows adding pressure.
#OctFOMCDecisionDueSoon $DOGE Dogecoin, charge for me, crush the shorts!
Brothers, DOGE is currently priced at 0.079, still grinding below 0.08, but take a look at the liquidation data—shorts are already lining up for the execution.
In the past 24 hours, DOGE has seen $6.25 million in liquidations across the network, with shorts liquidated at $4.75 million, accounting for 76%; longs only $1.5 million, less than a third of the shorts.
In the last 4 hours, shorts have been bleeding continuously; every time the price ticks up a bit, a batch of short sellers gets taken out.
Does this scene look too familiar?
Retail investors saw DOGE dropping for a whole month, the whole network shouting “down to 0.06,” rushing in to short. Meanwhile, whales quietly accumulated 1.14 billion DOGE at the bottom, worth $112 million.
The long-short ratio on OKX surged to 4.87, meaning for every 1 short, nearly 5 longs are holding strong.
Shorts think they’re harvesting profits, but they’re actually the fuel.
More importantly, all the bad news is out. The Dogecoin Foundation terminated its exclusive partnership with House of Doge, demanding $400,000 in compensation and reclaiming trademark licensing for self-management.
The market’s previously feared “partnership breakdown” risk has now materialized.
The price is currently stuck just below 0.08; once it breaks out with volume, the direct squeeze target for shorts is $0.10.
My strategy is very clear: never chase shorts at this level. Shorts are already squeezed into a narrow gate; once the price pushes up slightly, stop-loss orders will turn into buy orders, burning themselves higher. $ETH 这根+2.13%的阳线，藏着一个反直觉的细节：空头被清算1722万美元，多头仅377万。涨势的真正燃料不是新买盘进场，而是空头被迫回补。🎯 换句话说，这是一次典型的“逼空式上涨”，而非需求驱动的趋势反转。新增多头杠杆的迹象并不明显，三期资金费率均为轻微正值，只能算背景噪音，谈不上多头强势信号。真正值得盯的是期权端：持仓层面的put/call基本均衡，但当日成交put/call比率已升至2.79——有人在涨势中集中买入保护。这个背离说明聪明钱并不相信这波拉升的持续性。 从盘面结构看，最大成交量恰恰落在阳线上，但其中相当一部分是空头平仓单，挤完之后便无以为继。下降趋势线与空头排列的均线仍压在头顶，24小时最高收盘价2,358.69正好卡在阻力下方，堪称“差一口气”的位置。 核心判断：逼空行情已接近尾声，接下来大概率有一次回踩测试2,296.3的动作。这不是看空信仰，而是结构使然——当上涨的边际买盘来自被迫平仓而非主动建仓，动能自然衰减。 多头若要翻盘，条件清晰且唯一：价格站稳2,358.69并同步突破下降趋势线。在此之前，偏空判断有效；一旦触发，则需果断推翻当前框架。$ETH Forever $FOREVER and Cambria $RSGP will not be listed on Binance Alpha on October 29 TGE:
Forever $FOREVER has a total supply of 1B, launching fairly at 22:00 on Robinhood's Frontier launchpad, selling 40% of tokens at a 140k FDV, plus 10% in the protocol treasury, with an initial FDV of 200k;
Public trading starts with a 50% tax that gradually decreases within 15 minutes, essentially a MEME launch but with a token presale + 50% tax, so it’s impossible to be listed on Binance Alpha, at best a new model experiment;
Frontier launchpad has never produced a leading MEME, but Robinhood MEME has shown some signs of life these days, interested parties can watch it themselves, DYOR;
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Cambria $RSGP will launch at 23:00 on Base AERO, a dual-mode Web3 game: PvP competition and cooperative building, raised 2.5M, but the official whitepaper is locked, so the full tokenomics cannot be seen;$BTC stands at 80,851.5, up 1.54% in 24 hours. During this rise, short positions liquidated amounted to $9.51 million, while long positions only $4.56 million, indicating the rally is more about shorts being squeezed out. On the gold side, physical gold is moving out, but deliverable warehouse receipts have actually increased, which looks more like inventory shifting for delivery purposes—an internal adjustment within the safe-haven asset, unlikely to directly impact the crypto price in the short term. Our data also shows no correlation: funding rates in the last three periods range between 0.0054% and 0.0100%, DVOL is 37.4, options put/call ratio is 0.77, with leverage and panic levels not heavy. The judgment is that $BTC is oscillating strongly between 79,468.3 and 81,270.6, with the lower boundary unlikely to break before short covering is complete. Conditions for bearish reversal: drop below 79,468.3 and funding rate turns negative. Conditions for bullish reversal: volume surge above 81,270.6 and contract open interest continues to rise from $7.78 billion.Can the risk appetite brought by $BNB AI stocks spill over to platform ecosystem assets? The Nasdaq rose on Monday in the US stock market, indicating that funds are willing to take on growth risks again, but the Federal Reserve meeting may still change the valuation discount rate. If risk appetite spreads to crypto spot and platform activities, ecosystem tokens will have fundamentals to follow; if only the stock market rises and on-chain activity remains unchanged, I would lower my judgment on the spillover market.Brent’s $109.74 close and WTI at $99.50 suggest markets are allowing for a diplomatic off-ramp after Iran’s conditional signal. Yet the relief remains exposed: the US has made no final decision, while Hormuz and shipping risks are unresolved. A durable decline would require those military risks to recede, not simply sit beside diplomatic hopes.
#OilFallsAmidIranRisks $BTC $ETH The October FOMC interest rate announcement is about to be released.
The market expects the rate to remain unchanged at 4.00%, with a high probability that the announced rate will be 4%. The uncertainty lies entirely in Powell's speech after the announcement, not the interest rate figure itself.
Possible risk scenarios:
Scenario 1: Interest rate remains at 4%, Powell's tone is dovish: no rate hike, signaling potential room for future rate cuts.
- Impact: The US dollar and US Treasury yields decline, BTC and ETH are likely to rally, suitable for short-term pulse trading, but prone to a sharp rise followed by a pullback.
Scenario 2: Interest rate remains at 4%, Powell's tone is hawkish: no rate hike, but emphasizes that inflation remains volatile, rate cuts will be delayed, and no rate cuts are considered this year.
Impact: This is the most likely "good news already priced in, leading to a sell-off" scenario. The rate remains unchanged, but expectations are disappointed, causing capital flight. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Hynix all fall back sharply, with a strong wick that easily triggers stop-losses.
Scenario 3: Rate hike (to 4.25%)
The market almost has no expectation for this. If it happens, it will directly kill risk assets, causing a collective plunge in the crypto sector and storage stocks, which will be hard to withstand in the short term.
This time, there is a double impact from the rate decision and Powell's press conference. The decision comes first, followed by Powell's speech after a short interval. The two market moves often go in opposite directions: for example, the decision might first trigger a rally, then a hawkish speech causes a direct plunge. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Changed it to 6 professional betting versions for you, just send it directly as top-level logic:
*Version 1 - Original Professional Version*
> Hynix $SKHYNIX I choose No, this is the one I most want to talk about today
> Everyone sees AI storage, HBM supply shortage, and instinctively says Yes, I also admit its main business is strong
> But this contract recognizes the company's officially disclosed data, and there is an investment in Kioxia lying here
> Last quarter this investment helped it earn a big chunk, this quarter Kioxia's stock price dropped a lot, the same account must be deducted in reverse
> So my view is, its main business will be good, but the book earnings per share will be dragged down by this investment
*Version 2 - Minimalist Sharp Version*
> For Hynix I choose No, it’s the one I most want to talk about
> Everyone thinks AI storage + HBM shortage = definitely Yes, the main business is indeed strong, but this time it’s about officially disclosed EPS
> Where’s the trap? It has Kioxia stock on its books, last quarter’s big profit beautified the report, this quarter Kioxia’s stock price plummeted, so it must recognize a loss in reverse
> Good main business is useless, EPS will be dragged down by investment losses, so I choose No
*Version 3 - Trading Perspective Version*
> $SKHYNIX Hynix, for the contract I choose No
> Consensus is Yes, logic is HBM sells explosively, main business is fine, I agree
> But the contract recognizes official financial report EPS, not whether the main business looks good, the key variable is the Kioxia investment, last quarter contributed large earnings, this quarter Kioxia’s stock price corrected,18,600 coins, this is the net inflow of Bitcoin by short-term holders into exchanges in the past 24 hours, mostly at a loss.
The market is cooperating as well, OKX is now hovering around 79,800, with a 24-hour low of 79,400, just grinding below 80,000. Those who chased above 80,000 and got in now are selling at a loss, no surprise.
Last time I bet it would break through a similar threshold directly, but it was ground down for three days with no reaction. This time I’ve learned my lesson; at this kind of level, I won’t act—neither cutting losses nor adding.
Also, the original Bitcoin DEX, the old version V1 of DotSwap, was hacked; within four hours, 8.5 BTC were drained from the pool, about 685,000 USD, due to the outdated server-side signature mechanism. The amount isn’t large, but the old protocol managing the custody pool is like this—when something happens, it’s a total mess.
The sell-off orders are piled up at the door, either triggering a wave of accelerated decline or grinding into a bottom. I’m betting on the latter. Integer thresholds like 80,000 are always ground out, not broken through.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 agree with this article; it is indeed the case. The details of the capital flow in the past two days are worth pondering: short-term money is indeed flowing back, but the way it moves is very sneaky. BTC spot inflow reached 111 million in four hours, and 179 million in a day, but contracts still saw an outflow of over 90 million in a day, and 7.83 billion over thirty days without turning back. Simply put, someone is buying spot, but the big leveraged money hasn't acknowledged it yet. A $30 million financing round has changed the fundamental nature of the AI chip business.
Hyperbolic completed its A-1 round, led by Walden Catalyst. This firm was co-founded by Chen Liwu and former Samsung president Young Sohn, with participation from Dell Capital and General Catalyst. Semiconductor veterans and AI funds are investing simultaneously, not in matchmaking software, but in the position of "who intermediates AI chips and computing power."
When industrial capital comes in, the first thing it provides is not money, but conditions. They are familiar with the sensitivity of chip regulations, and from the investment decision stage, clauses on cross-border compliance and controllability of technology exports are incorporated.
The bottlenecks are two old issues. First, export controls: platforms that facilitate cross-border sales or leasing must answer who the end user is, which data center the deployment is in, and whether there is any re-export. Simply acting as an information intermediary without controlling the flow of goods will collide with sanction lists.
Second, financial boundaries. Pure matchmaking and "matchmaking + settlement" are two different things in terms of regulation. Once you advance funds for both buyers and sellers, unify clearing and settlement, and add tokenized incentives, under the current enforcement environment for DePIN, it is easy to be held accountable for unregistered securities issuance.
This is also the problem that $TAO and $RENDER have to face. The demand for computing power is real, but whether funds are willing to give a valuation depends on whether the compliance path can be clearly explained.Just now, this message might be more worth paying attention to than a certain token's surge.
BlackRock, SBI, and Startale have joined forces to study connecting tokenized money market funds with the yen stablecoin JPYSC.
This means that future on-chain finance might not just involve buying coins with USDT, but will try to create a more direct link between stablecoins and traditional financial assets.
Imagine a scenario: a company holding on-chain yen needs to allocate short-term cash management assets, and it doesn't have to go back to the traditional financial system at every step; fund shares and payment funds could connect within the same digital process.
But don't rush to think of this as a product already launched. The three parties have currently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and are still researching technical, distribution, and regulatory issues, with no specific fund, launch date, or complete trading mechanism announced yet.
I believe the real highlight of this news is not "BlackRock is on-chain again," but that financial institutions are seriously studying whether stablecoins can become the cash layer of on-chain assets.
If assets can be tokenized and payments can be stablecoin-based, the next challenge is to enable safe settlement, redemption, and liquidity between the two.
The next step for Web3 might not be creating more assets, but making existing assets truly flow. #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 Currently, the only worthwhile investment targets left are google-no, hood is down, sandisk-yes, sandisk was unfairly punished, calculated on a non-GAAP basis, by this standard SK Hynix exceeded expectations, hood fell 8 points pre-market, currently no is still only 70, it can be considered as giving money away All three current positions are showing gains across the board. ETH short positions have an unrealized profit of 37.90%, BTC shorts have gained 18.77%, and BNB longs contributed 9.84%, resulting in a solid overall profit buffer.
ETH mark price is 2,353.61, yielding the most substantial profits. Since October, spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow exceeding $1 billion, maintaining redemption pressure and giving bears the upper hand. BTC mark price is 80,895.68, with dense chip accumulation between 81,000 and 82,500; the 81,300 level has flipped from support to resistance after breaking down, with shorts positioned just below this ceiling. BNB mark price is 734.7, with longs steadily following the upward trend. The quarterly burn removed tokens worth approximately $119.7 million, combined with CZ's narrative of BNB Chain as an AI-native currency, providing strong bottom support.
Stop-loss levels for all three positions have been raised to lock in profits; before the FOMC announcement, only defensive moves will be made without actively increasing exposure.
ETH: From October 1 to 22, spot ETFs recorded a cumulative net outflow exceeding $1 billion; exchanges saw a single-day net outflow of about 169,800 ETH during the same period, the largest in nearly four months.
BTC: A large amount of historical chips accumulated between $81,000 and $82,500; the $81,300 level has turned from support to resistance, and without spot buying to absorb, rebound resistance is significant.
BNB: The 37th quarterly burn permanently removed 1.6462 million BNB (about $1.197 billion), reducing total supply to approximately 131.5 million; CZ is pushing BNB Chain to become an AI-native currency network.*🛢️ Hormuz in CHAOS - Oil $113, BTC at RISK!*
STRAIT COLLAPSING
Oil flow: 14M barrels = only 82% pre-war
Ships: 20/day → 10/day
30 attacks this month = 20% of entire war
Freight: $37.37/barrel RECORD
Insurance: 3% → 10% 🔥
BTC HISTORY: Falls first, then PUMPS
2022 Russia: -8% → +14% in 4 days
2023 Hamas: -6% → +40% in 30 days
2025 India-Pak: -3% → recovered next day
Feb 2026 US/Iran: -6% → +17%
Iran says Hormuz "will never be same"
BTC bounce = oil flow.
No flow = no bounce$IRYS Look at this gains leaderboard, if you didn't know, you'd think a big bull market has arrived.
In reality, it's all a bunch of unknown altcoins causing chaos.
No one is taking the spot positions; it's all about contract price manipulations.
The whales don't care if you go long or short, they just fear you not playing at all.$ETH 侃爷这地址是真头铁，越跌越加大力度做多 ETH。
刚刚又提了 4000 个以太存进 Aave 借出 600 万 USDT 继续怼。目前一共抵押了 22,504 枚 ETH，借了 3100 多万美元出来，做多均价 2500 刀附近，这波算下来还浮亏近 250 万美元。
健康度直接压到 1.41，这是真打算一条路走到黑了。$BTC $ETH The Federal Reserve meeting tonight, will they raise rates or not?
Conclusion first: Most likely no rate hike tonight, but definitely a hawkish pause, with over a 70% chance of another hike in December.
Baseline scenario (no change + hawkish remarks): Most likely all bad news is priced in, market has already priced it in, so volatility won't be too high, and Bitcoin will likely continue its current consolidation rhythm.
Unexpected rate hike: A low-probability black swan event, risk assets will collectively come under pressure, and Bitcoin will likely dip.
Unexpected dovish stance: Almost impossible, with inflation as it is, dovish stance would mean all previous efforts wasted.
Don't hold heavy positions tonight, wait for the outcome before making moves. Focus on what Waller says about the December path and the latest judgments on inflation and employment. If a clear signal for a December hike is given, the short-term outlook is bearish; if ambiguous and leaving room, that's bullish.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Bitcoin has pulled back from $84,000 and is once again testing the psychological $80,000 level. The big question now is whether buyers can defend this key zone or if more downside is coming. Meanwhile, Asian tech stocks are moving higher, while crypto markets remain cautious. With the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting underway, traders are waiting for Wednesday’s decision and clearer signals on the future path of interest rates. 📉 Market sentiment remains cautious. Volatility is tightening, andStandard Chartered just cut BTC's year-end target price from 150,000 to 100,000, Bernstein cut it to 125,000, while Citi actually raised it to 113,000. Each of the three is more pessimistic than the last, with one bullish voice in the middle—this combination is quite interesting.
I checked the market; BTC on OKX is hovering around 80,900 now, with a 24-hour low of 79,500 and a high of 81,300. After dropping below 80,000, it climbed back a bit, so sentiment is barely holding steady.
As for target prices, I stopped using them as entry criteria a long time ago. When the price was 150,000, they shouted 150,000; now at 80,000, they start shouting 100,000—always half a step behind the price. Last time I bottomed out following a certain report and set a stop loss below, it got hit hard. Since then, I only pay attention to when they change their stance, not the numbers.
If I had to pick a side, I stand with Citi—not because it's optimistic, but because 113,000 is the number closest to what the market is willing to pay now. Standard Chartered cuts the most aggressively and is often the first to give up. When the day comes that they stop mentioning target prices altogether, that will be the real bottom for this cycle.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 In April 2025, the "Liberation Day Tariff" triggered a sharp plunge in the crypto market, with $BTC dropping to $74,000 at one point and $ETH hitting $1,384. By 2026, BTC bottomed out at $57,800, setting a new low; however, ETH only fell to $1,504 and did not break down in sync.
Behind this divergence in trends, there may be funding reasons: during the bear market, MicroStrategy was no longer able to continue increasing its BTC holdings and might even have turned to selling; BMNR, on the other hand, kept borrowing to buy ETH, with its holdings reaching 5% of the total ETH supply. The continuous buying pressure supported ETH, making its decline appear shallower.
But this is a double-edged sword. BMNR has yet to face a truly deep bear market test. ETH’s drop to $1,504 this time was relatively mild; if extreme events similar to the crashes on March 12, May 19, or the chain of collapses in 2022 occur, can it hold up? Some say BMNR borrows without rushing to repay and has ample cash. Yet financial history repeatedly proves: if borrowing money to buy coins guaranteed wealth, why have leveraged funds rarely survived for centuries?
Debt must eventually be repaid. Unless one can time entries and exits perfectly every time, leveraged players will always face their darkest moments. Spot trading is a friend of time, while leverage stands opposed to it; steady accumulation is more likely to endure.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $PEPE's largest individual holding has moved again. I've been watching this for a while and still stick to the old saying: on-chain transfers speak louder than the person themselves.
An address that had been dormant for over a year suddenly moved 1.45 trillion tokens to a new address in one go. Before the move, it held over 4 trillion. Meanwhile, the news is still shouting about increased holdings being bullish, but the price hasn't followed suit, only rising 9.7% in 24 hours with volume just 1.2 times the usual — think about it, this volume doesn't match the news, new money simply hasn't come in. $PEPE Today, October 28, the market will face two important policy decisions: the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and hold a press conference. Ajian will directly guide everyone through a quick framework for judgment and position suggestions:
First, you need to know that the market is not only focused on whether the interest rate changes this time; in fact, most of it has already been anticipated and priced in. The main focus is still on the assessment of inflation, economic growth, and the future policy path. Because even if the central bank keeps the interest rate unchanged, if the statement or press conference releases stronger inflation concerns, the market may still reprice the future rate cut space, and crypto assets will directly come under pressure; conversely, even if there is no immediate rate cut, as long as the policy guidance is more moderate than the market expects, it may also ease the pressure on risk assets 2. Core Variable: The Federal Reserve Decision Is the Biggest Short-Term Game Changer
The Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be announced tonight. The market generally expects the benchmark rate to remain unchanged at 4%, but recent inflation has been sticky, coupled with Middle East turmoil pushing up oil prices. Investors are highly alert to the Fed signaling a hawkish stance, hinting at a rate hike restart in December.
In a high interest rate environment, interest-bearing assets become more attractive, which directly suppresses the valuation of high-volatility risk assets like BTC. With the U.S. midterm elections approaching on November 3, global risk asset caution is clearly rising. The market widely expects BTC to experience a 10%-15% significant fluctuation around the decision.
3. Funding: Institutional Actions Diverge, Buying Demand Temporarily Vacant
- The U.S. BTC spot ETF still recorded a net inflow of about $442 million this week, but there was a large single-day outflow of $635 million in between, showing significant capital divergence.
- The world's largest corporate holder, Strategy, has paused its continuous BTC accumulation and instead used $205 million in cash to repurchase preferred shares. This force, long regarded by the market as a core buyer, is temporarily out, further weakening short-term upward momentum.
- Downside protection demand in the options market has surged sharply. The DVol volatility index on the Deribit platform rose to 38, with implied volatility of put options significantly higher than call options, indicating institutions are hedging against downside risk in advance.#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
On October 28, 2026, at 14:33, BTC is currently quoted at about $81,138, with a 24-hour increase of 1.43%, a total market capitalization of $1.63 trillion, overall in a volume-price divergence observation state under a key macro window. The core situation can be analyzed from four dimensions:
1. Short-term market: The dividing line between bulls and bears is right ahead
Currently, BTC is oscillating narrowly in the $80,000-$82,000 range, just rebounded from the recent low of $79,416, but there is a clear volume-price divergence: total market trading volume has sharply shrunk by 11% compared to the previous day, derivatives market 24-hour trading volume has dropped by 20.27%, yet open interest contracts have increased by 8.27% to $347.19 billion, indicating that funds are betting on imminent events, but actual trading willingness is very low.
- Key resistance upwards: $81,000-$82,500. If effectively broken through, it is expected to quickly test $85,000, $87,500, and even challenge the $95,000-$98,000 range
- Core support downwards: $78,500-$79,500. If buying in this area is insufficient, the next decisive level is $75,500. Once broken, the bullish structure established since the summer low will be destroyed, opening up deeper correction space October's decision to hold steady was almost a foregone conclusion, but the real knife is hidden in Waller's wording — the probability of a rate hike in December has soared to 84%.
$BTC: $80,920. Risk was "reduced" ahead of the meeting, briefly dropping below 80,000 to $79,800. The $80,000-$81,500 range is the cost basis for ETF holders and treasury companies, forming the first psychological support wall; above $82,000 is the previous resistance turned support level, and without a volume breakout, any rebound is just a correction, not a reversal.
$ETH: $2,353. $2,400 is the key intraday round number and also the previous top-to-bottom conversion level. ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for the fourth consecutive week, totaling $220.7 million. Staking yields lack appeal in a high risk-free rate environment, casting doubt on the sustainability of the rebound.
$SOL: $102. $100 is a barely held defensive line, pressured before the meeting. Historical data shows that after the September rate hike, SOL rebounded 18.7% within 7 days, showing much greater elasticity than BTC and ETH — but the premise is "uncertainty eliminated," not "uncertainty escalated."
Summary: The decision itself will not bring direction. Any hint from Waller at the press conference about a December rate hike is the real variable determining whether BTC can hold $80,000 and SOL can hold $100. Holding steady is known; the wording is unknown.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Can the recovery of macro risk appetite drive a re-pricing of the payment narrative for $XRP? On Tuesday, US stocks strengthened under the boost of AI, but interest rate uncertainty remains ahead of the meeting; if risk appetite spreads, cross-border payment assets may gain more attention. On the downside, the macro rebound may not translate into real network demand; if on-chain transfers and liquidity do not improve simultaneously, I would consider the market movement as sentiment-driven.$CORE still has mindless people saying core is the successor to Bitcoin. Bitcoin's last coin will only be mined in 2140, but core will be exhausted by 2104 according to 81 years. Can't understand who the real fool is, fooling the mindless uncles and aunties out there Broadcom rose 4% in one day, but a large part of the risk for this $63 billion financing falls on itself
The $63 billion AI chip financing deal was announced, and Broadcom surged 4% in a single day, closing at $342.33. However, this money is not from Anthropic, nor is it currently Broadcom's revenue.
The structure involves BofA, Citi, and Morgan Stanley arranging the first-lien debt,
Blackstone providing the second-lien debt, and a newly established SPV purchasing Broadcom's accelerators and networking equipment to lease to Anthropic, with deliveries starting in 2027. The most intriguing part is that Broadcom provides residual value support for this debt, amounting to roughly the first-lien debt, Reuters citing insiders at about $43.5 billion. Simply put: if the equipment depreciates in the future, Broadcom must absorb the loss first.
Do you think suppliers backing customers is proof of AI demand, or is the risk being shifted onto the suppliers' balance sheets?
$AVGO $BAC $C $MS $BX$UNITREE No matter how much it rises, you still have to short the toy factory; it's just overvalued.
The key point of this wave of $UNITREE's market is no longer whether the robot has a future prospect, but how much the current high stock price has already overdrawn future expectations.
First, valuation pressure is increasing. As of October 26, $UNITREE Technology's stock price rose 7.69% in a single day, with a market value returning to about ¥271.8 billion, and a trailing P/E ratio reaching 465.22 times, far exceeding the average level of the general equipment manufacturing industry. The company also previously warned in announcements that the robotics industry is still in the early stage of commercialization, and future performance realization is uncertain.
Second, the more aggressively funds chase the rise, the more the risk of pullback cannot be ignored. The stock price has rebounded continuously since October 16, rising about 65.89% over 7 trading days. Such rapid surge easily accumulates short-term profit-taking; once subsequent buying cannot keep up, profit-taking by funds may amplify the correction. It is important here to observe trading volume, support after the peak, and whether funds continue to flow in during the rebound.
Third, positive news does not equal immediate performance realization. $UNITREE has attention in robotics technology and products, but from product display to large-scale commercialization, it still requires continuous order growth, customer repurchase, and profitability to be jointly verified. The company also clearly warns that if commercialization falls short of expectations, it may face valuation reversion risk.Calculating, $176.4 million divided by 175.7 million tokens, the average reserve per token is about $1.004. When I saw this number, my first reaction was not "stable," but to first check: how can ordinary holders redeem this reserve?
① According to the reserve amount and circulating tokens, the book balance is about 0.4%. This can explain the coverage at the report date, but I wouldn’t treat this small balance as insurance against all risks.
② The 175.7 million tokens in the report are listed as redeemable USAT. The terms only allow approved clients to mint or redeem directly; other holders usually have to go through exchanges or the secondary market. For me, having asset coverage and having direct exit options are two different matters.
③ The reserve report date is August 31, which is 57 days before October 27. It is a historical snapshot and cannot directly replace today’s reserve assessment; the rest of the facts summarized: Anchorage issues independently, Tether provides support but is not responsible for redemption or guarantees, USAT and USDT have different legal arrangements, the GENIUS Act application process has not started, and no public materials show USAT has been licensed.
My judgment is that these numbers carry weight but are insufficient alone to support ordinary users’ sense of security. If secondary market support weakens, holders who cannot redeem directly may be more affected by liquidity — this is my speculation. I will next look at redemption qualifications and exit conditions alongside reserve coverage.In the early stages of a BTC bull market, it is often when the market's "panic narratives" are most intense. Looking back at 2020, the OKX withdrawal incident triggered panic, with off-exchange USDT dropping to around 4.5, forcing many to cut losses and exit, yet the market soon saw a strong rally.
Looking at 2023, crypto-friendly banks encountered consecutive troubles, and BTC fell from around $25,000 to $19,000, with the whole network shouting $15,000, but ironically, the peak of panic was close to a phase bottom.
And now?
AI bubble, US stock market crash, interest rate hike expectations, midterm elections... a series of negative factors emerge one after another, and market sentiment is once again shrouded in fear. History does not simply repeat itself, but human nature remains similar.
The harshest part of the early bull market is not the lack of opportunities, but that before opportunities arrive, the market is always filled with various pessimistic narratives.
When everyone is panicking, rather than blindly following emotions, one should calmly examine the market structure and key supports.
What truly deserves attention is not how many negative factors there are, but whether the market still cannot fall further despite the continuous fermentation of negative factors.
$BTC $ETH #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $XRP Franklin's fund size on XRPL surged 4 times, yet $XRP actually dropped 13.4%.
Many retail investors are still foolishly waiting for institutional buying, but they issued sgBENJI, which has nothing to do with $XRP spot.
Road repairs and price increases are completely different matters. The on-chain activity is lively, but lacking spot buying support, the market will most likely continue to seek a bottom.
#XRP
$XRP
👇AI companies are busy going public, while CZ is pondering another matter: AI working on its own, where the money comes from, and how it gets paid.
On October 26, Anthropic filed IPO registration documents under the ticker ANT, planning to list on Nasdaq. Revenue in the first half of the year was about $16.286 billion, compared to $1.163 billion in the same period last year. Net loss was $80.748 billion, mostly due to non-cash valuation changes of convertible notes.
On the same day, after ringing the bell at BNB Standard, CZ gave his judgment: cryptocurrency could become the native currency for AI. This company was formerly CEA Industries, holding 515,000 BNB, worth about $383.5 million.
The scenario he envisions is specific: AI agents call models, buy data, rent computing power, with service providers scattered across countries. Each transaction requires manual confirmation and card binding, breaking automation. Wallets plus smart contracts plus stablecoins would allow machines to pay themselves per task, with assets possibly in BTC, stablecoins, or even tokens issued by AI companies.
But he said that using crypto for daily expenses is currently inconvenient. Entrepreneurs shouldn’t rush to compete with Apple Pay; instead, they should first target markets where cross-border remittance is expensive and traditional payment coverage is poor.
AI revenue surging doesn’t mean it will settle on blockchain. What really matters is whether high-frequency, small payments will go on-chain. Mainstream services use credit cards, so no matter how hot AI gets, it won’t drive $BNB usage.$XRP on-chain whales just dumped over 100 million XRP, but the market didn't even flinch.
The ETF has only been live for a month and its scale has already broken $100 million. Institutions are wide open underneath, swallowing all the dumped coins whole, forcing the price to bounce hard from 1.25 back up to 1.35.
In the past, when big holders dumped, retail investors would panic sell, but now if these old whales sell all their holdings, when the real rally kicks in later, they might have to chase the price higher themselves.
#XRP
$XRP
👇$BEAT The real big money among the bulls is actually all buried alive at the peak!
Don't be fooled by the surface showing 86.8% of bulls making money; looking deeper at the leaderboard, those profiting are just retail traders with small orders of one or two hundred U.
The real heavy hitters are the large group of anonymous bulls underwater, holding a combined heavy position of over 1.5 million U, averaging an entry price of 0.124, and currently still at a loss of 240,000 U on the books.
As soon as the market rebounds slightly, the first reaction of these trapped big holders is to rush to sell and break even. Whatever price surge happens, they will hammer it down mercilessly.
With big money waiting to escape overhead pressure, smart money has already started shorting around the current price. Just follow the shorts and you're set!BTC is approaching 81,000, this rally is mainly driven by renewed AI expectations and short covering, rather than spot buying continuation. There is about 870,000 BTC selling pressure accumulated in the 81,000-82,500 range above, and the quality of capital continuation is facing a major test.
$BTC is quoted at 80,944.9 (+0.51%). Daily ETF inflows exceed 110 million, fully supported by IBIT. 81,300 USD is a key previous defense line; if it cannot break through with volume, it is likely to become a false breakout.
$ETH is quoted at 2,354.58 (+0.37%). Nearly 36% of ETH is staked and locked, but spot ETFs saw a net outflow of nearly 90 million in one day. Long-term chips are locked, short-term institutions are exiting, lacking an independent strength foundation.
$SOL is quoted at 102.08 (+1.17%). Although it has slightly rebounded, SOL ETFs have had net outflows for two consecutive weeks this month, and Meme trading activity has sharply declined. Under BTC's dominance, high-beta altcoins are temporarily neglected.
Summary
This rally is driven by sentiment recovery and short covering; capital has only continued with BTC, not spilling over to altcoins. Waiting for the Fed decision to land, watching if BTC can break through 81,300 with volume is the moment to confirm a "real continuation".
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ After reading this message, I feel that the USAT story has reached a point where the division of roles is clarified: Anchorage independently issues it, Tether provides technical, branding, strategic, and distribution support, but is not the issuer and has no redemption or guarantee obligations. The report on August 31 shows about 175.7 million redeemable USAT, corresponding to approximately $176.4 million in reserves.
My judgment is that the most important aspect of this message is not that the reserves slightly exceed the circulating supply, but that it puts "who is responsible" front and center. A familiar brand can bring trust, but USAT and USDT have different issuers and legal arrangements, so trust cannot be directly transferred.
For ordinary holders, there is another hurdle: only approved clients can directly mint or redeem; others usually have to go through exchanges or the secondary market. I consider this very important because whether the reserves are sufficient is one thing, but whether you can directly redeem yourself is another.
The regulatory process is also not complete. As of October 27, the OCC has not yet initiated the application process, and public materials do not show that USAT has obtained issuance approval under the GENIUS Act. If the market treats the rule issuance as product approval, I speculate that this expectation is ahead of the facts.
The reminder this story gives me is that the confidence in stablecoins must be found along the lines of responsibility and redemption paths. I will be watching the actual approval progress closely, rather than writing its ending prematurely.First consider the worst-case scenario: if the issuer goes bankrupt, can the money still be smoothly recovered? My habit in risk control is to ask this question first. Moody's has assigned A2 and P-1 deposit ratings to RLUSD under Ripple, covering native RLUSD on the XRP Ledger and Ethereum.
My judgment is that this news is more significant for risk identification than for stimulating trading sentiment. The rating weighs both the reserve protection measures and the risk exposure of holders in the event of issuer bankruptcy: having reserve protection does not mean there is no uncertainty in bankruptcy proceedings; if redemption is blocked, those urgently needing funds may face liquidity pressure, which is my stress scenario.
Ordinary people might as well do a check on the use of funds: assuming you temporarily cannot withdraw, will it affect your living expenses? Don't just focus on the rating letters. When dealing with rated stablecoins like RLUSD, how much stop loss do you generally set for a single transaction?After lunch, I studied Robinhood's Q3 earnings report. How to put it? It was unexpected yet predictable. The company's overall revenue hit a record $1.42B, but crypto revenue was only $120M, and nominal crypto trading volume dropped 38% to about $50B. Crypto is no longer RH's strongest growth engine; options, stocks, and event contracts are diverting user attention. In a way, this also reflects the overall market situation—retail traders' trading enthusiasm is shifting, and improved risk appetite doesn't necessarily mean users are buying crypto.
Also, there's an interesting data point: the report shows about 200,000 customers opened Agentic Trading Accounts, with related nominal trading volume exceeding $1.6B. Considering Binance's recent hot agentic wallet, the trend of automated trading is unstoppable, friends. Don't get hung up on $HOOD's price fluctuations; go have fun with your wallet #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降