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For me, convenient trading does not equal favorable odds. The Hong Kong Investment Committee issued a reminder that buying and selling tokenized funds in the secondary market involves four types of risks: price spread/trading, liquidity, price segmentation, and reliance on market makers. It is also necessary to clarify the underlying fund and whether the settlement is on-chain or off-chain.
I prefer to see this message as cooling down the "tokenization premium" rather than denying the concept of funds going on-chain. According to my speculation, if the pricing depends on a few market makers, then the exit cost might offset the benefits brought by convenience; if prices are segmented across different trading channels, then seeing a low price does not necessarily mean there is a bargain to be had.
From my perspective, only when the underlying fund is understandable, the exit costs are acceptable, and the settlement responsibilities are clearly defined, does the convenience factor deserve to be included in the expected value; without these, no matter how novel the story is, it is not worthwhile. This reminder makes me more inclined to believe that future discussions will shift from the convenience of going on-chain to the exit conditions. I will first look at whether these conditions are clearly explained and will not substitute technical novelty for risk assessment.Let's talk separately about ETH's relative strength
ETH is currently around 2353, with gains on October 27 stronger than BTC, showing more resilience on the market.
But on the other hand, ETH spot ETFs are still seeing outflows, indicating a divergence between capital flow and price performance: strong gains do not mean buying is continuously increasing.
My view is to first see if this relative strength can hold up against the backdrop of ETF outflows, then determine whether it's a rotation catch-up or sustained strength, without rushing to treat it as a confirmed reversal.
Discussion: Do you think ETH's relative strength can continue, or is it just a short-term outperformance?
Personal opinion, not investment advice
#ETF #以太坊 $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 📊 $ETH funding divergence intensifies: treasury buying, ETF selling
BitMine (BMNR) latest disclosure shows holding 6,051,933 ETH as of October 25, 14:00 EST, about 4.95% of the total network. Added another 10,452 last week, with a staking scale of about 5.22 million ETH, annualized staking yield about $318 million according to company standards. Only about 58,000 ETH short of its 5% target, but buying pace has slowed; whether it can continue to increase holdings is key 👀.
On the other hand, $ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $88.6 million yesterday, with a cumulative outflow of about $1.31 billion in the past 30 days. Listed companies are buying weekly, but spot funds are reducing positions, showing a clear conflict in capital direction. Strategy almost stopped buying BTC this week, BitMine and Strive are still expanding their balance sheets, as if capital is selecting targets to continue expanding.
Current price about 2,314, 24-hour high 2,344, low 2,296. Short-term support at 2,295-2,305, reduce positions if it breaks below 2,295; resistance at 2,340-2,365, don't chase if it can't break through. Stop loss below 2,285, target first at 2,380. Keep position light, do not leverage before FOMC decision ⚠️. Before ETF funds return, relying solely on treasury buying to support price, I still don't believe it 💡. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 Sir A's live trading record｜Day 298 of dollar-cost averaging SOL, a pullback of 27,000 from the peak, but I choose to keep accumulating coins 🚀
📅 Check-in day: Day 298
💰 Current holdings: 145.01 SOL
📈 Current profit and loss: +16.27% (unrealized profit about 13,663 CNY)
🏷️ Current price: ~101.94 USDT
Today's total account assets are 98,000, a pullback of 27,000 from the previous high of 125,000. Seeing the account shrink, it's honestly painful. 🫠
But my strategy has always been simple:
1️⃣ Enable automatic buying, regardless of rise or fall, acquire coins as planned.
2️⃣ Put them in Simple Earn to earn interest, accumulating while making money.
3️⃣ Uninstall the app, don't watch the market, live well.
As long as the chips held keep increasing, short-term fluctuations are just a numbers game. In this market, lasting longer is more important than making quick profits! Waiting quietly for the next main upward wave! 🏔️
Anyone else dollar-cost averaging SOL? Raise your hand in the comments! 🙋♂️
SOL dollar-cost averaging #OKXPlanet #Solana #LiveTradingRecord #FinanceDaily #CoinAccumulator #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 $BTC $ETH In the futures market, no matter how lively the trading on an exchange is, I always look at how much industrial hedging and how much short-term capital there is. Speculation provides liquidity and is not inherently wrong, but if growth relies entirely on sentiment, when the market cools down, the underlying business quality will be revealed. My view on this Solana news follows the same habit.
According to Bloomberg, Solana is seeking to shift from relying on Meme coins and speculative trading to financial applications such as stablecoins and tokenized assets, aiming for adoption by Wall Street; JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Standard Chartered, as well as Visa and Fiserv have already started related operations on the network. The material does not provide business scale, so I will not directly equate these names with growth.
My judgment is that this looks more like a catch-up in business resilience against economic cycles, rather than a direct positive factor that can be applied to the coin price. If payment and asset circulation can generate sustained demand, then the network has a chance to reduce its dependence on speculative enthusiasm; but there is still a gap between institutions starting business and the business having already formed scale, with actual usage in between.
The crypto market is different from traditional futures; network usage does not necessarily mean value will be transmitted to tokens in the same proportion. For ordinary holders, this distinction is more important than the list of institutions. What I want to see next is whether these applications can maintain stable demand, first separating the accounting of "someone coming" and "someone staying."According to this position update, Brother Maji's perpetual contract portfolio remains BTC short, ETH long, and HYPE short. The most noteworthy aspect is not the directional combination, but the profit and loss distribution: BTC short position is profitable, ETH long and HYPE short positions are under pressure, and the funding fees have not fully offset the unrealized losses. 📊 Breaking down the three positions: BTC short: 40X full position, holding -243.96 BTC, position value 19,641,400 U; opening price 84,070.0 U, unrealized profit +868,700 U, funding fee income +129,300 U; margin 491,000 U, listed liquidation price 100,208.7. ETH long: 25X full position, holding 7,223.81 ETH, position value 16,944,200 U; opening price 2,500.18 U, unrealized P&L -1,116,700 U, funding fee expense -63,500 U; margin 677,800 U, listed liquidation price 1,658.24. HYPE short: 5X full position, holding -268,300 HYPE, position value 21,550,900 U; opening price 66.2399 U, unrealized P&L -3,778,700 U, funding fee income +1,102,600 U; margin 4,310,200 U, listed liquidation price 96.81. 💡 My view. This portfolio shows that the simultaneous presence of long and short positions does not mean the risk is already offset. The unrealized loss on the ETH long exceeds the unrealized profit on the BTC short, and HYPE is the largest source of unrealized loss among the three positions. The relative positions of different coinsLast night, the global markets were all celebrating, with the Nasdaq leading the gains at 1.18%, Tesla soaring 4 points, and tech stocks pushing the broader market upward. The US October Consumer Confidence Index also rose from 84.2 to 91.7. Looks lively, right? But after digging into the underlying data, I found this is all a damn illusion. Consumer confidence has indeed risen, but the World Federation of Large Enterprises' survey plainly states that while people verbally express confidence, they actually plan to drastically cut spending on services and big durable goods over the next six months. What does this mean? It means emotional recovery is masking a real contraction in demand. Looking at the corporate side, September's core capital goods orders rose 0.5% month-over-month, and shipments increased 1.2%, but in the face of a high-interest environment, companies' actual profitability is being tested. So don’t look at the US stock market rally and think the bull market is back; there are hidden reefs beneath the surface. Shifting focus back to our market: BTC is currently quoted at 80,683, up slightly by 0.5%, but this is hardly something to celebrate. Look at Glassnode’s data: the comprehensive holding cost tracking corporate treasuries is around $80,200. The current price is tightly defending the institutional floor. On the upside, the $81,200 to $81,700 range accumulates a clear potential short liquidation zone, less than 1.5% from the current price; on the downside, $78,700 to $79,300 is the long liquidation danger zone. This position is extremely awkward, with both bulls and bears walking a tightrope. If volume-driven selling breaks below 80,000, it will trigger another chain of massive liquidations. On the news front, there isA Brazilian election saw someone earn 1.77 million USD, while others were hit by both stock market circuit breakers and on-chain liquidations.
On October 26, Lula defeated Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.79% of the vote, breaking the historical pattern since Brazil resumed direct presidential elections in 1989, where "the first-round leader never lost in the second round."
Suspicious winners also appeared in prediction markets.
According to monitoring by @poly_beats, two newly registered accounts$BTC #ThisWeekOctoberFOMCInterestRateDecisionAnnouncement
#BTC weak rebound at 80,000 threshold: positions piled up with full leverage, two-way harvesting before FOMC
The 4-hour chart shows BTC falling back from the high of 87,238, dipping to a low of 79,220 before starting a weak recovery, currently reported around 80,950. Technically, MACD and KDJ both show golden crosses, indicating short-term rebound momentum remains, but MA5/MA10/MA20 all show bearish pressure, heavy trapped positions above 81,000, insufficient rebound volume makes effective breakthrough difficult, overall still a consolidation after decline, with box lower support at 79,178.
Capital flow divergence is extremely obvious: spot ETF side sees slight daily BTC inflow, institutions cautiously test buying at 80,000 threshold; ETH only minor inflows, SOL continuous outflows, large funds have not fully entered yet. Contract open interest climbs to 31,000 contracts, price dropped 5,000 points in the past month but open interest rose instead of falling, a typical pattern of increased positions during decline, with both long and short leverage accumulating; recent rebound accompanied by slight open interest decline, only partial short profit-taking exits, overall high leverage status unchanged.
Bearish pressure not yet lifted: on-chain whales turned bearish for the first time in 3 months, leading enterprises’ holders sold BTC for the first time, short-term holders’ exchange inflows have turned loss-dominant. Before FOMC release, volatility under high positions will be significantly amplified, rising triggers short stop-losses causing a surge, falling triggers long liquidations causing a crash, very high probability of two-way shakeout, heavy one-sided bets are easily trapped and harvested at this time.今天先看资金回流，但还不能急着判断反转。BTC现货和合约短线同步流入，ETH杠杆资金回补更明显，SOL则是现货承接、合约仍在撤退。 BTC现货4小时净流入1.11亿美元，合约净流入3618万美元。拉长至24小时，现货净流入1.79亿美元，但合约净流出9274万美元。30天合约净流出扩大至78.3亿美元，说明短线买盘回来了，中期去杠杆还没有结束。 ETH现货4小时净流入5164万美元，合约净流入2.21亿美元。24小时现货净流入8702万美元，合约净流入1.85亿美元。不过30天现货净流出37.7亿美元，合约净流出82.9亿美元。短线回补力度强于BTC，但中期资金结构依旧偏弱。 SOL现货4小时净流入866万美元，合约净流入453万美元。24小时现货净流入2370万美元，合约却净流出5894万美元。30天合约累计净流出21.7亿美元，说明现货有人接，但杠杆资金对反弹仍然谨慎。 BTC短线资金回流，ETH合约资金抢跑，SOL现货承接最明显。现在更像连续撤退后的资金回补，还不是趋势反转。继续看反弹能否带来持续增量，否则冲高后仍有回落风险。$BTC $ETH $SOL 🔍 Is the sell-off taking profits or waiting to break even? According to Bloomberg, $BTC has fallen back to around $80,000. Buyers' costs have concentrated at $87,000 and above over the past two years. This area has suppressed rebounds twice this year, each time followed by a pullback of at least 25%.
Don't rush to conclusions; cost does not equal sell orders. This is my speculation: if breaking even is the main reason for exiting, then turnover of positions is more important than the round number level, because the expectations of those taking over may differ. I will watch whether the selling pressure near $87,000 weakens.$ETH 的反弹正在失去说服力，而最诚实的证据来自成交量。MACD 金叉之后，买方并没有像市场期待的那样放大仓位，尤其是开盘后的黄金时段，整体盘面依然被价格拒绝——这不是一次干净的进攻，更像是一次试探性的反抽。 把镜头拉远，今天美股半导体板块大涨，资金明显向芯片股倾斜，但加密市场并没有同步企稳。$ETH 在 2300 这个危险位置反复震荡，距离 2227 只有一步之遥。这个位置之所以关键，是因为一旦跌破并加速下行，连 0.618 回撤位都可能守不住；若演变成阶段性下跌，整轮上涨行情就有宣告结束的风险。换句话说，2227 不只是一个数字，它是当前多头逻辑的最后一道防线。 我目前的判断偏向空头：买方在关键窗口没有拿出成交量，说明追高意愿不足，而外部资金正被半导体吸走，$ETH 缺少增量承接。但这里有一个容易被忽视的分歧点——如果 2227 能够守住，我个人更倾向于认为调整之后仍有上行空间，多头并未彻底交出主动权。市场此刻的分歧，恰恰在于"守不守得住"这个二元问题，而不是方向本身。 真正值得盯的信号不是价格反弹的高度，而是 2227 附近是否出现放量承接。缩量反弹是诱多，放量止跌才是反转的起$PEPE
After a year, a whale transferred out 1.45 trillion PEPE tokens. This address originally acquired the chips at a very low cost, and after the transfer, it still holds a floating profit of over 5 million.
PEPE surged more than 14% in the past 24 hours, currently trading around 0.00000493, and the Meme sector as a whole also rose nearly 4%, making it quite lively to watch.
One opinion I've heard is that PEPE is back on track. My view is not so optimistic—the old holders are moving out while the hype lasts; this kind of rise feels more like an emotional pulse. Anyway, I have never caught a bargain in the Meme hype, so this time I'll just watch first.
Wallets are more honest than words; no matter how much it rises, I'm just observing.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Macro conditions are not yet favorable for Bitcoin.
Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, but they will have to step in for debt markets eventually.
Be patient!As of the week ending October 18, the daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz was about 14 million barrels, only 82% of the pre-war level.
The daily number of commercial vessels passing through dropped from more than 20 per day before the conflict to at least 10.
Since the beginning of this month, there have been about 30 attacks on ships in and around Hormuz, accounting for 20% of all ships attacked during the entire war.
Freight rates for supertankers heading to Asia are approaching a record high of $37.37 per barrel. War risk insurance premiums have surged from less than 3% of the vessel's value to as high as 10%.
Oil is still flowing. But the cost of that flow has multiplied several times over.
In the past four geopolitical conflicts, BTC has always "fallen first and then risen."
In 2022 Russia-Ukraine, it initially dropped 8%, then rebounded 14% after four days.
In 2023 Israel-Hamas, it fell 6% that week, then surged 40% over the next 30 days.
In 2025 India-Pakistan, it dropped 3% on the day, then recovered the next day.
In February 2026, after the US-Israel bombing of Iran, it plunged 6%, then rebounded 17%.
The script was exactly the same four times. But the four rebounds share one common premise: energy supply was never truly cut off.
Russian oil was still being sold, the Pakistan conflict did not affect oil routes, and the February bombing did not block the strait.
This time, the premise has changed.
The Iranian Foreign Minister made it very clear: the management and navigation of Hormuz "will no longer be the same as before."
In recent weeks, the Revolutionary Guard has taken action against at least seven "violating" oil tankers; between October 21 and 22, seven tankers were attacked or struck mines. On October 27, a tanker with its tracking system turned off struck a mine and caught fire in the eastern strait. The Iranian Navy explicitly stated: vessels passing without coordination make Hormuz "an unsafe state."
The US Central Command said "there are no Iranian mines on the main shipping routes." Iran responded the next day with a burning tanker.
Both sides speak their own words. But tanker traffic data does not lie: flow is decreasing, costs are rising.
Brent crude oil is about $113.88 today, WTI near $99.90, briefly dipping below $100 intraday before pulling back.
Oil prices above $100 mean the pressure of inflation penetrating from the energy sector into core inflation is real. The Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts is nailed down by oil prices; the denominator of risk asset valuations is held down by yields.
The 10-year US Treasury yield hovers near 5%, reaching 5.365% on October 7, a 24-year high.
BTC returned to $81,000 today, up 1%. But it still fell 2.8% over the past 7 days, with heavy selling pressure above after failing to break $100,000.
A 1% rise does not mean safety. It only means the market is still waiting for an answer.
$BTC $XAU $BZ $BTC has dropped to around 80,000, so why am I not rushing to buy the dip?
It's not that I don't want to buy at the low point, but I'm afraid of running out of bullets too early. If the market keeps falling afterward, I won't have money to cope.
A big drop doesn't mean the selling pressure has been fully cleared. The market is still waiting for signals from the Federal Reserve. Even if interest rates meet expectations, it doesn't necessarily mean prices will rise. The key is to watch the statements, liquidity, and sustained buying.
I'm waiting for three signals:
1. Whether 80,000 can truly hold, not just a fake recovery followed by another drop
2. Whether the rebound has volume; a rebound without volume doesn't count as a reversal
3. Whether there are buyers stepping in on the pullback; active buying and a pause in selling are two different things
I'm not bearish, nor am I refusing to buy. Once it stabilizes, I'll enter in batches; if it breaks down, I'll cut losses—no stubborn holding on.In the AI industry chain, the traditional mechanical hard drive sector has recently been quite impressive🤨
In the early hours of October 28, Seagate released its latest financial report, showing a 61% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue, a gross margin of 57.3%, and free cash flow hitting a company record.
At the same time, the company expects revenue to continue growing next quarter!
Previously, when people talked about AI storage, the focus was mostly on HBM and manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix.
However, as data center scales expand, long-term storage of massive data also requires large-capacity storage devices with sufficiently low costs.
This happens to be the advantage of traditional mechanical hard drives.
Seagate's HAMR technology is helping it increase single-drive capacity, and combined with growing demand and supply management, profitability has shown significant improvement.
The benefits brought by AI infrastructure expansion are spreading to those traditional hardware segments that were once less noticed.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Breaking news: This morning I was still writing about Bitcoin holding at 81,000, then I casually opened OKX and saw the latest spot price at 80,791, with a 24-hour low of 79,505. Numbers that don’t match after just one night speak louder than any analysis.
This week it has already fallen below 80,000 twice; the last time was on the 23rd at 79,220, the lowest in five weeks. This morning it was just $300 short of that level, then bounced back to around 81,300 before someone started selling again, with the 24-hour high stopping at 81,298.
Beyond the price, a few other numbers are worth noting. Coinbase premium has been negative for over a month, hitting -0.176% this morning, the lowest in five months, with hardly any buying during the US session; Hyperliquid whales have turned net short for the first time since March, and in the previous bottom they were the most accurate at going long; Strategy’s SEC filings this week show they haven’t bought a single coin.
So my stance is: this looks more like a downward continuation than a shakeout before a takeoff. The 80,000 level is notorious for whipsawing; I made a wrong call in a similar area last week, and I admit it rather than stubbornly holding on.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC has been bought up to the bottom? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 10/28｜Willy Woo's Weather Station ran 10,000 simulations. On 10/26, he posted 10,000 BTC simulated paths: median peak in December 2028 at 413,000; 28th-50th percentile reasonable range 241,000-413,000. The model uses a random walk trained on history from the 2018 bottom to the 2022 bottom, with diminishing returns (power-law decay 0.45), adjusted by market cycle phase. He insists "this is a simulation, not my prediction" and also shows: median pullback to 234,000 in April 2030, surge to 1,030,000 in February 2033. On 10/27, BTC was about 80,000, roughly 37% below the October 2025 high of 126,080. I'll keep this simulation for now; the truth will be revealed by the end of 2028 $CL Important things said three times
The US is not short of oil—the US is not short of oil—the US is not short of oil!
Oil = Dollar—Oil = Dollar—Oil = Dollar!
After the midterm elections, I believe oil prices will plummet, because although high oil prices can enhance the international status of the dollar, they also cause everyone to reject using the dollar.
From the perspective of international security, if Ukraine does not receive new support on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, a ceasefire is inevitable. At that time—if the US and Iran do not cease hostilities, the next conflict hotspot will shift to them. The US military is domineering, but they are not stupid; they will not fight a protracted transoceanic war thousands of miles away, as their power would only be weakened. Therefore, peace talks between the US and Iran are imperative.
The end of the midterms is a signal; the political significance represented by the midterms is huge. No one will offend voters at this time. High oil prices have already seriously affected the lives of their own citizens, so lowering oil prices has become a political task.
One last point: The US is not short of oil, so why are oil prices high?
Because the previous high oil prices were used as a tool to harvest the global economy and stabilize domestic prices, but with the midterms approaching and competition intensifying, this tool must be discarded.
Finally, wishing everyone prosperity~If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set a rule: if a listed company continuously fails to withdraw disclosed crypto assets, then increase the risk weight for asset availability 🤖. Datavault AI reported that starting from June 2026, the inability to withdraw $BTC stored in Biconomy caused its stock price to plummet nearly 50%. These BTC came from a deal where Scilex purchased its stock and warrants for $150 million.
I think this is more like a company asset quality alert and shouldn't be directly interpreted as bearish for Bitcoin. If the money can't be withdrawn, it might affect cash flow; these BTC were transferred off-chain and recorded in the wallet, so just looking at the deposit records is insufficient to verify availability. The advantage of this rule is that it captures specific anomalies, but the flaw is: inability to withdraw does not equal a loss, and the stock price drop cannot be directly treated as a loss rate.
As a quant newbie, I also need to add a condition to lift the alert, otherwise it will keep triggering. If you were to write it, would you lift it after a successful test withdrawal, or require that the entire balance can be independently verified?离谱离谱，纳斯达克上市公司提不出自己的比特币，股价1天直接腰斩😂 这家公司叫Datavault AI，股票代码DVLT。2025年9月另一家上市公司认购它的股票，总价1.5亿美元，全用比特币付，按当时价格折算差不多1328枚。币也没走链上，对方在一家小交易所里直接往它账户记了1309枚，其实就是账本上改个数字。 到2026年1月，它又把其中491枚卖回给对方，换回大约4050万美元现金。剩下大约817.6枚，按现在8万出头的币价算差不多6600万美元，一直躺在那个交易所账户里。 今年6月公司想把币提到外面的钱包，申请交上去就没了下文。等了4个月。一枚都没出来。 10月26号公司发公告，说过去4期财报都不能再信了。这批比特币达不到算自家资产的标准，只能改记成对方欠的认购款，光2025年底的总资产就要往下砍大约9220万美元。 下一个交易日股价直接崩，24小时跌了大约49.55%，最低打到0.07美元附近。 一个靠比特币撑门面的公司，账上的币看得见摸不着，最后连财报都跟着作废。币放在别人那里，屏幕上那串数字到底算谁的，真到要提的时候才知道。 新手小白建议多看少操作，买币只买 $BTC📌Early Wednesday market session, 4 cryptocurrencies await Thursday's Washington press conference
$BTC 80,980
80,000 is the maximum strike price for options this cycle, with market makers placing a large number of hedge orders here. The Washington press conference early Thursday, after a rate hike in September, will most likely keep rates unchanged this time. However, with inflation still high at 3.7%, if the speech is hawkish, the 80,000 level will be tested. Avoid heavy speculation.
$ENA 0.215
High interest rate environment actually benefits these yield-bearing coins 🌾
USDe earns interest by collateralizing short-term U.S. Treasuries. If the Washington speech is hawkish and the high interest rate cycle is extended, the appeal of yield-bearing stablecoins will increase. This logic is contrary to the usual expectations of rate cuts, so do not blindly chase.
$ASTER 0.704
Multi-chain contract DEX is currently inactive 🛰️
The project rules are complete, but trading volume is only a few hundred thousand USD, with funds waiting on the FOMC outcome. Without new event catalysts, it is difficult to attract funds in the short term.
$HYPE 77.3
Protocol fee dividends await quarterly settlement 📊
Holding HYPE entitles you to on-chain transaction fee shares. On-chain trading data is strong this week, but the coin price has not risen accordingly; the market is waiting for the quarterly dividend to be implemented.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ZEC 1225 is like an iron lid, multiple attempts to break through have been pushed back.
What's even funnier is that the short whale holds $187 million in short positions, making a fortune.
The price has dropped to 1182, yet the funding rate is still positive.
This shows that these retail investors are stubbornly holding against the trend, paying interest to the shorts every day.
The main players are dumping their holdings onto retail investors, just waiting for the next wave of liquidation to the downside.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇In the past 24 hours, BTC hit a low of 79505 (OKX), while Binance was at 79468. The 80,000 line was truly broken once, but now it's back above 80,700.
Wintermute's reminder came just in time: after three consecutive weeks of decline, 80,000 is a key support. The support was pierced once before being bought back, which is quite ironic.
I see quite a bit of divergence. On one hand, people say the support is critical; on the other, CryptoQuant data shows the proportion of dormant coins falling to 26.59%, indicating early funds are moving; the four major Korean exchanges still have a 0.73% premium. The funding rate is 0.01%, no squeeze, OI is 2.57 billion USD, and no one is rushing to leverage up.
To take a side: this time is a probe, not a hold. If it really drops further, it depends on whether the next layer can hold; standing above 80,000 for a few more days means this three-week decline has finally eased.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $GRVT GRVT这筹码结构还敢去扎堆做空，纯属嫌保证金太多。
单日合约持仓就飙了近13%，但外面能交易的流通盘少得可怜，控盘极度集中。
现在衍生品那边一堆空头在硬扛，主力稍微点火触发强平，空军的爆仓单直接全转成市价买盘。
越涨越扫空，一旦进入这种连环爆的逼空节奏，空头全在被动帮庄家抬轿子。
#GRVT
$GRVT
👇Regarding tokenized stocks, I stand with Ethereum.
Just saw that OKX's tokenized stock plan wants to be based on Ethereum, but it was opposed by 26 issuers. It feels frustrating, but that's the reality—everyone wants to hold the bowl of tokenized stocks themselves, and who controls the settlement rights is even harder to negotiate than the product itself.
ETH is now hovering around 2341, with a 24-hour high/low of 2357/2297, not moving at all with this news. The market never reacts instantly to such matters.
My judgment: tokenized stocks will ultimately need to circulate cross-platform, and there's no way around Ethereum's network. Opposition aside, there are only one or two chains that can serve as a universal settlement layer, and I bet on Ethereum.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $PEPE ‘s breaking out of a clean triangle while most altcoins are still underperforming BTC by a wide margin. Normally that order’s reversed BTC leads, real-utility alts follow, meme coins move last once risk appetite is fully back. When meme coins go first, it’s usually not conviction, it’s bored capital chasing the highest-beta trade in the room. Worth remembering before reading this as a market-wideThe FOMC decision lands tonight, and what BTC fears most might not be "no rate hike"
What worries me more is not the Fed holding rates steady tonight, but the Fed framing "no rate hike for now" as "high rates will persist longer." The rate decision itself has likely been priced in by the market; what can truly cause risk assets to reprice is whether the statement and press conference signal a more hawkish stance.
If the Fed continues to emphasize inflation risks and avoids giving a timeline for easing, even without a rate hike, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may strengthen first. BTC then faces not a "no rate hike" tailwind, but a recalculation of the cost of holding risk assets. Conversely, if the wording is not clearly hawkish and the market hears clues of cooling inflation or weakening employment, a pause in tightening could leave room for a rebound.
So I don’t plan to focus solely on the rate outcome. BTC’s 24-hour range is about $79,505–$81,298; if after the meeting the price rallies back near $81,300 with volume, and the dollar and yields do not continue to rise, the bearish view won’t hold. If yields strengthen and BTC falls below around $79,500, it would look more like trading on "high rates lasting longer." A single drop isn’t enough to confirm a trend reversal; price and macro reactions need to corroborate each other.
The real test this time is how the market interprets the Fed’s next steps. Before the meeting, no one should bet on a single direction; wait for the statement, press conference, and price to align before deciding whether to follow.
$BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 昨夜美股继续反弹，纳指上涨1.18%，标普500上涨0.60%，AI和半导体板块重新获得资金关注。但BTC并没有同步走强，市场依然谨慎。为什么美股涨了，币圈却没什么动静？我觉得关键还是利率预期和机构资金。 ① 美国经济数据偏强，未必是币圈的好消息。 昨晚公布的10月消费者信心指数升至91.7，明显高于市场预期的81；9月耐用品订单增长1.8%。经济韧性是好事，但也可能让美联储更有理由维持高利率。反过来，如果通胀压力缓解，经济强劲也能支撑风险偏好。 ② 油价回落，宏观压力有所缓解。 布伦特原油昨晚下跌近2美元，收于113.88美元。中东外交谈判带来了一些缓和预期，但供应中断风险仍在。油价如果继续下降，有利于缓解通胀担忧；如果冲突再次升级，美元和美债收益率仍可能给BTC、ETH带来压力。 ③ ETF资金仍在分化。 已核实的10月26日数据：美国现货BTC ETF净流入1.103亿美元，ETH ETF净流出8860万美元。10月27日完整数据尚未确认。单日资金变化不能决定行情，但如果BTC持续获得流入、ETH持续流出，两者的相对强弱可能进一步分化。 ④ 明天凌晨2点，美联储公布利率决议。 北This morning someone told me again that XRP is going to crash because Ripple will unlock 1 billion tokens on November 1st. I've heard this dozens of times a year; every time before an unlock, someone shouts it out.
The current price is 1.318, 2% higher than 24 hours ago, and it hasn't broken yesterday's low of 1.285. The market has long priced in the unlock; if they really wanted to dump, they wouldn't give a heads-up in advance.
On the other hand, Bassett said at Ripple Swell that digital asset competition can strengthen the US dollar's position. Hearing this from the Treasury Secretary is a completely different tone compared to the SEC's stance from a few years ago.
I'll watch the volume closely on the unlock day; if it really breaks below yesterday's low, I'll admit I was wrong.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 To start with a bit of cold water, I don't take this statement as a collective pass for the crypto market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated at the Ripple Swell conference that digital assets can help consolidate the dollar's global dominance; he mentioned that over 90% of stablecoins are backed by the dollar, with issuers often holding U.S. Treasuries as reserves, and that adoption growth could drive demand for related assets. From my reading, he acknowledges the ability of digital assets to serve the dollar, not the value of all crypto assets.
I'm cautious for two reasons. First, policy goals and market imagination are not the same: emphasizing technological leadership does not equal a commitment to deregulation, so directly translating this statement into an all-around positive is missing a step. Second, expanded use of stablecoins could deepen on-chain dependence on the dollar. If new payments and settlements revolve more around the dollar, then non-dollar stablecoins might face stronger competition. This is my speculation; technology adoption and currency diversification do not necessarily move in the same direction.
Of course, I might be pouring cold water too early. Bessent believes stablecoins will open new markets rather than just replace existing dollars; if we later see real new usage and clear, actionable policy arrangements, I will raise my evaluation of this news. I will focus on actual adoption and rule implementation going forward, and will not use a single macro statement to stamp the entire market.As soon as Robinhood's earnings report came out, the stock dropped nearly 10% in one day. I'm not catching this falling knife.
Q3 revenue was $1.42 billion, up 12% year-over-year, but net profit was $476 million, down 14% year-over-year, missing Wall Street's expectations.
The drag came from crypto: crypto trading revenue dropped to only $120 million, a direct cut of 55%.
The prediction market, on the other hand, exploded, with event contract revenue at $173 million, more than six times higher.
HOOD contracts fell from 96.8 all the way down to 87.75, with the daily MA20 around 100.7 and MA50 around 109.4, all pressing down overhead.
I think the market is recalculating: the prediction market is truly growing, but it still can't cover the hole left by crypto.
If the coin price doesn't recover, this company's profits will be hard to look good.
I'll wait first.
If the daily closes back above 96.8, filling the earnings gap, then we'll talk; if it breaks below the late July low of 83.9, then I'll look further down.
Do you believe more in the prediction market supporting the valuation, or that crypto's slump will continue to drag it down?
$HOOD #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 💻 According to my code review: Blockaid monitoring shows that the Tranche Vault on Avalanche has been under continuous attack, with about two transactions stealing approximately $1.01 million. The attacker used flash loans to mint inflated shares, then redeemed the remaining USDC in the vault.
My judgment: The focus should be on share accounting; it’s not just the flash loan’s fault. If shares don’t correspond to real assets, redemption can turn inflated numbers into actual fund loss; since the attack is still ongoing during monitoring, it also means the loss prevention mechanism needs to be reviewed. Which specific part has a bug still requires technical disclosure.
If it were me, I would first verify whether the assets and shares before and after minting and redemption are consistent, then test if pausing is possible under abnormal conditions, rather than just blocking the flash loan entrance. Please help review: which should be prioritized for fixing, asset consistency verification or single redemption limit, and why?Ondo's official blog states: On October 27, 15 tokenized US stocks and ETFs were connected to Robinhood Chain, among which 11 entered Uniswap v4's StablePair pool along with the corresponding Robinhood Stock Tokens. They can also be bridged from Ethereum or BNB Chain via Ondo Bridge. CoinGecko spot price for ONDO is about $0.422 (snapshot around 10:03 Beijing time).
The real change happens over the weekend. When Robinhood's minting and redeeming is closed on weekends, Ondo can still mint and redeem at the current price. The corresponding tokens on both sides can be swapped within the pool, filling the liquidity gap during market closure days, not simply adding another chain. Critics will watch the pool depth and whether weekend price differences can be arbitraged away. Launching does not mean trading volume has picked up, nor does it mean the token price will rise.
Let's first observe the two weekends after launch. If StablePair remains almost inactive for a long time, this is just product groundwork; if price differences are pulled back and weekend trading continues, it means the market closure window is truly being utilized. If the pool remains unused after launch, treat this as a progress update, not a new narrative.
$ONDO
#ONDO #Tokenization After the U.S. midterm elections, things are about to heat up again!
Geopolitical risks are rising! The U.S. may take military action against Iran after the midterm elections.
According to The Wall Street Journal on October 28, the U.S. has warned several Gulf Arab countries to prepare for a brief but intense military operation after the elections. However, no final decision has been made yet, and diplomatic negotiations remain uncertain.
If the Middle East situation escalates, risks to crude oil supply could push oil prices higher, and gold may attract safe-haven funds. Bitcoin may not necessarily benefit; once the market enters a risk-off mode, capital withdrawal from risk assets could bring short-term selling pressure.
Next, focus on U.S.-Iran negotiations, crude oil trends, and BTC key support levels. News does not equal action, and expectations do not equal trends. Before the situation becomes clear, controlling leverage and avoiding chasing highs or selling lows is more important than rushing to bet on a direction. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 Within one day, the Ethereum ETF went from nearly setting a monthly outflow record to attracting $246 million in a single day.
On October 28, the US spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of $246 million, with Fidelity's FETH contributing $99.27 million and BlackRock's ETHA adding another $76.37 million. However, as of this Monday, the ETH ETF still had a cumulative net outflow of $1.26 billion for October.
$ETH is around 2,351. The price is stuck at the convergence of three lines: the on-chain average cost at 2,310, the 200-day EMA at 2,315, and the large holder cost base at 2,328, where it has found support multiple times in the past three days. 2,355 is the first resistance above; closing above it would mean truly escaping the danger zone.
$BTC is around 81,000, with an intraday high of 81,300. The ETF had a net inflow of about $119 million yesterday, but excluding the single leading product, the rest remain weak. The cumulative net outflow for ETFs in October is about $202 million. Prices are rising, but the ETF gap has not yet been filled.
$SOL is around 101. The SOL ETF had a net outflow of $19.15 million yesterday, all from one product. The $100 level is barely holding, but buying pressure has been continuously absent.
In short: The probability of no change in interest rates is over 90%, but the single-day reversal of the ETH ETF shows that money is not absent; it is just waiting for a sufficiently cheap entry point. Among the three coins, ETH has already seen the first inflow, while BTC is still waiting for the second.
#SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
US Stock Market Analysis: AI Funds Violently Replenish, But Someone Is Quietly Taking Profits
Overnight, the Nasdaq rose 1.18% to reclaim the 100-day moving average, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.60%. On the surface, it looks like an AI bull comeback, but breaking it down, the Goldman Sachs AI Index soared 5.08%, while the S&P components excluding AI actually fell 0.32%. The funds are concentrated in single-point explosions; all the gains are among “insiders.”
Macro news impact on various assets:
The core catalyst is Broadcom securing $63 billion financing to help Anthropic buy chips, plus Meta’s $25 billion secondary offering oversubscribed 5 times, and Oracle expanding cooperation with OpenAI.
Where is the money coming from? The market is answering with real money the question “Who is really paying for AI?” But note, oil prices have fallen below $100 for two consecutive times, gold dipped to 3989 before sharply rebounding to 4061, and the US dollar index rose 0.35%—both safe-haven and risk assets rising simultaneously, making the market situation itself quite strange.
Capital flows:
Cloud service providers and chip stocks are being aggressively bought; Nebius rose 11%, CoreWeave nearly 8%, AMD 5.45%. But Microsoft fell 0.24% after hours, showing divergence among the seven giants. Hot money is moving into second-tier AI concepts, while some big stocks are taking profits at highs.
Two massive financings forcibly extend the AI narrative, but tonight’s Federal Reserve decision and Microsoft and Google earnings reports are the ultimate tests.$PONS has warmed up for two consecutive days, with a daily trading volume of 35M, a week-on-week increase of 8.3%, significantly recovering from last week's low of 24M.
Platform fees are 354K (+14%), protocol revenue 53K (+10%), token issuance 1.5K (+7%), and number of trades 337K (+21%). The total DEX volume on Robinhood Chain dropped from 742M to 586M, but PONS has risen, increasing its market share.
150,000 tokens have been burned, totaling 32.8%. The buyback pool still has 266,000 tokens left, with 104,405 tokens held. The latest version of Robinhood Wallet now supports PONS, and the 30M level is very likely to hold steady.Thailand has launched an app called WORPT, which allows foreign tourists to convert USDT and USDC into Thai Baht, then pay by scanning local Thai PromptPay QR codes.
The developers are Waan Exchange and Wipay, with Tether as one of the partners. The project operates within the Thai SEC's TouristDigiPay regulatory sandbox.
One detail is easy to overlook. Stablecoins are not paid directly to merchants. They are first converted into Thai Baht within the app, then processed through PromptPay. Merchants receive Thai Baht, and the acquiring system has no connection to cryptocurrency.
Sandbox limits: no more than 100,000 Thai Baht per transaction, and no more than 550,000 Thai Baht per month.
The design intention is very clear. The first real use case for stablecoins found in Thailand is currency exchange for tourists. At the local payment layer, it has not yet touched $BTC $ETH $ZEC $ATOM market is still pricing ATOM with "infinite inflation," but its underlying logic has already shifted.
In August 2026, Cosmos Hub officially switched to a fee buyback and burn model, and Osmosis terminated OSMO inflation with a 91% voting rate, also canceling new ATOM minting. The supply side changed from "only increasing" to "decreasing," marking a structural turning point, not a short-term sentiment.
On the demand side, IBC v2 is linking Solana and all EVMs, while the global RWA tokenization market is expected to expand to $418.6 billion by 2026—ATOM’s role is to be the trustless settlement layer for cross-chain flow of these assets.
The price is stuck in the critical decision zone of 1.60–1.63; once it breaks above 1.85 with volume, the path to 2.20 will open. Coupled with an 18%+ staking annualized yield, the cost of waiting is gradually being offset by returns.
The suspense has never been about the price itself, but whether ATOM near 1.6 will still be waiting for you when the market finally understands the deflation + RWA play.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 刚刷到一根急拉，群里立刻有人把目标改到六位数，前脚还在等六万。你身边也有这种一秒换剧本的声音吗？ 我盯着盘面那一下，第一反应不是兴奋，是觉得吵。价格一动，叙事就跟着动，昨天还在教你等深水区的人，今天已经开始画更高的位置。表面看是情绪热闹，真正要看的却是板块强弱：谁在领涨，谁只是被带着弹一下，谁冲高后没人接。这个落差比口号重要得多。 BTC 破不破某个整数位，本身只是触发点。市场实际在交易的，是风险偏好有没有回来、杠杆敢不敢加、回调有没有人愿意接。如果只有头部资产走强，ETH 和山寨跟不上，那更像一次情绪修复，不是全面回暖。反过来，若回调时量能收得住、板块内部有接力，才说明承接是真的。 偏多的路径在于：突破后不急着追高，等回踩确认，让强势板块自己证明韧性。潜在风险是，大家把"看见上涨"误当成"趋势已定"，提前把降息、增量资金、新高预期都计价进去，结果一根回撤就把追进去的人洗出来。更隐蔽的是，价格越热闹，越容易忽略板块之间的分化，表面红一片，真实承接却很薄。 我自己的节奏是，不跟喊单比嗓门，先看强弱排序和回踩质量。热闹可以看，仓位要慢。你更在意突破那一下，还是回踩那一下？ 时间会奖励有耐心Today there are signs of capital inflow, but it is still far from confirming a reversal. BTC spot and futures both show net inflows on the 4-hour timeframe, ETH's leveraged capital replenishment is stronger, while SOL shows a divergence pattern with spot absorbing and futures continuing to withdraw.
$BTC
🔻4-hour spot net inflow of $111 million, futures net inflow of $36.18 million. Over 24 hours, spot still has a net inflow of $179 million, but futures have turned to a net outflow of $92.74 million. More importantly, the 30-day cumulative net outflow of futures has expanded to $7.83 billion. Short-term buying has returned somewhat, but the mid-term deleveraging process is not over.
$ETH
🔻4-hour spot net inflow of $51.64 million, futures net inflow as high as $221 million. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $87.02 million, futures net inflow is $185 million. However, from a 30-day perspective, spot has a net outflow of $3.77 billion, and futures net outflow reaches $8.29 billion. The short-term replenishment is clearly stronger than BTC, but the mid-term capital structure remains weak.
$SOL
🔻4-hour spot net inflow of $8.66 million, futures net inflow of $4.53 million. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $23.7 million, but futures have a net outflow of $58.94 million. The 30-day cumulative net outflow of futures is $2.17 billion.
Going forward, the key focus is whether the rebound can attract sustained incremental capital. If it is only a stock game, there is still a risk of a pullback after the rally. This time I'm siding with ETH first. BTC really broke through 80,000 last night, hitting a low of 79,505 on OKX, while ETH just brushed 2,297 and is now hovering above 2,340.
The contradiction is that money and price are moving in opposite directions. October isn't over yet, but the US spot ETH ETF has already seen a net outflow of over a billion dollars (about 1.18 billion as of 10/23), making it the worst month this year; at this rate of bleeding, the price should have collapsed long ago, but 2,300 just won't break.
The Federal Reserve decision is at 2 AM Beijing time tomorrow. They just raised 25 basis points in September, and about 90% of CME bets that there will be no change this time. I won't add positions before the shoe drops, using 2,300 as the dividing line.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 48-Hour Liquidation Pain Points Overview! Concentrated Chip Zones for Both Bulls and Bears
📊 Bullish Liquidation Pain Points
✅ BTC: Bullish pain point at 79966.32, -1.1% from current price, corresponding liquidation volume 63.154 million U
✅ ETH: Bullish pain point at 2280.09, -3.1% from current price, corresponding liquidation volume 33.7978 million U
✅ SOL: Bullish pain point at 99.09, -2.43% from current price, corresponding liquidation volume 7.8466 million U
📊 Bearish Liquidation Pain Points
✅ BTC: Current price 80856.3, bearish pain point at 81561.16, +0.87% away, corresponding liquidation volume 66.8784 million U
✅ ETH: Current price 2353.14, bearish pain point at 2375.77, +0.96% away, corresponding liquidation volume 22.805 million U
✅ SOL: Current price 101.56, bearish pain point at 102.12, +0.56% away, corresponding liquidation volume 6.4109 million U
Core Insight
The current market is stuck between the bullish and bearish pain points. The upper bearish liquidation zone is very close; a slight upward move can trigger a concentrated short squeeze. The lower bullish pain point is also nearby; a slight dip will wash out bullish chips. The liquidation capital accumulated on both sides is substantial, making it easy for short-term whipsaws and dual-direction harvesting. The market shows clear consolidation and shakeout patterns, with a relatively high risk for chasing positions. Saw a pretty cold piece of news: the world's fourth largest gold hub HKGX is going to use Chainlink's CCIP for cross-chain gold token XGZ. Usually, no one pays attention to this kind of news, but I think it's worth pondering more than most of the wild price surge or plunge news.
The tokenization of gold has been pushed since BlackRock started BUIDL last year. What's the bottleneck? It's that different chains don't recognize each other's accounts. For physical assets like gold, the custodian says it exists, so it exists, but if tokens are issued on Ethereum and then again on another chain, how do you prevent double-spending? Oracles solve this problem. Chainlink's current role is increasingly like financial infrastructure, not just hype.
Here's a contrast. When this news came out, LINK's price barely moved, hovering around 11.5. The market currently doesn't price in the narrative at all; everyone's focused on BTC hitting 80,000. When RWA really picks up volume someday, looking back at this kind of news might not be cheap.
I don't hold LINK and don't plan to get in now; BTC hasn't even chosen a direction yet. But I will keep watching this direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 [The U.S. Government Sold Anthropic Shares Too Early, Missing Out on $3.3 Billion]
Last year, the U.S. government sold 4.45 million shares of $ANTHROPIC, confiscated from the FTX case, for $627 million. Based on the market's rumored valuation of $1.5 trillion, these shares would now be worth about $3.94 billion, representing a book loss of over $3.3 billion. Selling too early by six times is even more thrilling than retail investors chasing highs and lows.
The proceeds were ultimately used to repay FTX creditors, while the shares were repurchased by Anthropic and then resold to nine investors. Anthropic has now filed IPO registration documents, planning to use $ANT as its Nasdaq ticker. The valuation imagination for AI companies certainly makes that past deal look especially cheap.
However, the $1.5 trillion remains a market-expected valuation, not the final offering price; since the shares were sold at the financing price back then, it cannot be simply concluded that the government made a poor decision. For FTX creditors, the $627 million was the actual realized repayment, and how much was missed afterward is another matter.92.8% of people are focused on the "no rate hike" at 2:00 as good news, but the real cut is at 2:30. CME gives a 92.8% chance of no change in October, Reuters surveyed 100 economists all betting on December, and CME shows about a 74.8% chance of a 25bp hike in December. The news is "no change," but the market is betting on "there's more to come." The most likely path: prices rise first at 2:00, then fall back at 2:30 when the Fed turns hawkish. BTC short-term trading range is 82,000–82,500, testing that before returning to fluctuate around 80,000; but if it's read as "December is the last hike," the decline might actually attract buyers. Don't make impulsive decisions on the spot; pre-load both hawkish and dovish scenarios into your algorithmic orders, simulate the market first, and let the strategy execute at 2:30 instead of chasing the candlesticks.SOL basically didn't keep up with this rebound; I tend to think it hasn't recovered yet.
In the past 24 hours, the low was 99.17, briefly breaking the 100 integer level, now climbing back near 101. During the same period, BTC rose from 80097 to 80630, ETH from 2321 to 2343, SOL from 100.73 to 101, basically standing still. The funding rate is 0.002%, essentially zero, and the open interest of 3.2 billion USD is flat—no one is adding positions, nor is anyone dumping.
After crossing the 100 level back and forth twice, it’s no longer support but a divergence line. My view is conservative: among this round of mainstream coin rebounds, SOL is the weakest leg. Whoever is holding or sneaking ahead, on-chain data is more stubborn than my words.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议