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$UNITREE has already deviated from the main stock trendTo pour some cold water first, I don't take "earning airdrops with AI" directly as a signal of an AI demand explosion. Antseed launched a points program: users who use qualifying paid AI services earn points based on their spending amount and the service provider's reward multiplier, and can claim corresponding ANTS airdrops every Thursday; participation does not require staking. I tend to see this as a demand incentive rather than evidence that demand has already been established.
I'm stuck on two points. First, the spending must be real money, but receiving rewards does not equal covering costs. If users increase calls they originally didn't need just to earn points, the activity might come from the rewards rather than the service itself. Second, the service provider's reward multiplier depends on the amount of ANTS the user has staked and the lock-up period. This links usage with staking, but I wouldn't equate willingness to lock tokens directly with AI product competitiveness: if users follow the multipliers, service providers might be competing on incentive strength rather than user experience.
Of course, bulls might have a broader view: rewards can be customer acquisition costs and not necessarily just hype. If later we see that users attracted by rewards continue to pay, and remain even when the reward appeal diminishes, I would revise my cautious judgment. Regarding whether this mechanism can bring sustained demand for ANTS, are you bullish or bearish? Please share your reasons, especially which user behaviors best support your view.#SpaceX达成400亿美元GPU融资租赁协议
"SpaceX Leases $40 Billion Worth of GPUs: Is Space Exploration Short on Cash?"
SpaceX has just signed a $40 billion GPU computing power lease deal with Wall Street, locking hundreds of thousands of high-end computing cards into an asset package.
If they were to pay $40 billion in cash to buy the hardware outright, the standby liquidity for the frequent launches of Starship would be quickly drained. By using a financing lease structure, they ensure sufficient computing power for Starlink's low Earth orbit network and xAI supercomputing, while also preserving a cash safety cushion.
Next, it remains to be seen whether the batch of computing cards delivered and deployed in Q4 will enable Starlink satellite routing and ground clusters to operate on schedule. $SPACEX达成400亿美元GPU融资租赁协议$POL
Polygon’s evolution highlights an important distinction between building blockchain infrastructure and capturing economic value from it. Better developer tools and scaling technology can support adoption, yet the POL investment thesis also depends on how network activity translates into token demand. Competition among low-cost networks remains intense. Sustainable usage is a more meaningful signal than ecosystem announcements alone.$ENA
Stablecoin infrastructure is only as resilient as the mechanisms supporting its dollar peg, collateral and liquidity. Ethena offers a different approach to dollar-denominated crypto exposure, but its model carries risks that conventional cash-backed stablecoins may not share. Funding-rate changes, counterparty exposure and market stress deserve close attention. Attractive yields mean little if the underlying mechanism struggles during unfavorable conditions.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The core of Q3 profits depends on price increases for HBM3E and DRAM. HBM4 is still ramping up, making it difficult to boost profits this quarter. The highlight is the volume ramp-up pace given by management for next year, while also being cautious of Samsung's catching-up pressure.比特幣目前卡在8萬，ETH卡在2300，SOL卡在100上下......不敢漲，也不跌！像是百米運動員在等待發令槍響！ 本週也確實是個多事之秋： 北京時間10月29日2:00（週四），美聯儲利率決議； 10月29日20:30美國PCE數據； 10月29日21:15歐洲央行利率決議； 10月30日11:00（週五），日本央行利率決議； 每一個發令槍響都可能是博爾特的速度大跌/大漲，特別是29日的美聯儲——大概率不加息，把利率維持在3.75%到4.00%。看似市場終於可以喘口氣了，但幾乎同一時間，另一羣人在外面喊：未來半年到兩年，全球性金融危機概率在變大。 這就很矛盾：央行按兵不動，爲什麼大佬們反而更緊張？ 答案藏在一句大白話裏：美聯儲的“暫停”，不是風險解除，而是它也不敢亂動。 而大佬們的預警，也不是在算命，而是在說同一件事——債務是乾柴，AI泡沫和高估值是澆在乾柴上的油，高利率是那顆遲遲不肯落下的火星。 1、表面是“喘口氣”，實際是美聯儲“不敢踩油門也不敢踩剎車” 主流市場幾乎已經定價美聯儲10月暫停加息，但與此同時，100位經濟學家全部預計12月可能還要加息。你看，這不是“轉向寬鬆”The hype long-short ratio has returned to a balance point
The long-short ratio is 0.97, and this number itself is worth a few words: the long and short forces in the HYPE contract market are basically balanced, with shorts slightly in the lead, but the advantage is so small it can be ignored. After the previous round of leverage clearing, the signal conveyed by this data is very clear—the market has returned from a one-sided bet to a balanced state.
Looking at the funding rate, it is only slightly positive, indicating that the cost longs are willing to pay to stay in the market is limited, and no one is willing to increase leverage to grab direction. This combination often appears in past markets at two moments: the buildup before a big move or the cooling-off period after a pullback. Considering $HYPE has dropped 21% from its high, it now looks more like the latter.
Sentiment has shifted from excitement back to caution, meaning fewer directional signals for short-term traders, making forced trades easy to get whipsawed; for mid-term holders, this is actually good, as the leverage bubble has been squeezed out, and prices are closer to true supply and demand. Next, watch which way the long-short ratio tilts; once it clearly favors one side and the funding rate rises simultaneously, a new directional choice begins.How much additional risk and migration cost must be borne for a bit more yield? I usually calculate this first when I see such news. If an AI agent helps users find yield, switching is only worthwhile if the extra yield covers these costs; otherwise, a higher quoted rate doesn’t necessarily mean better expected returns.
The Block, citing Mizuho’s view, states that AI agents guiding USDC holders toward higher-yielding fiat alternatives could expose Circle’s mid-term reserve income to a downside risk of 10% to 20%. I see this as a bearish judgment on Circle’s income stickiness, not as evidence that USDC demand will necessarily shrink.
My speculation is that if AI agents can reduce the hassle of price comparison and migration, holders who were previously reluctant to move might be more likely to switch, making it harder for Circle to retain funds. But if alternatives compromise on redemption convenience, fund security, or use cases, higher yields may not translate into migration. This news raises the likelihood of the scenario where "funds become more selective about yield," but it doesn’t prove it will happen on a large scale.
For ordinary users, I think the key is not how high the agent can find yields, but whether it also factors in risks. If it only compares yields without considering exit costs, the odds may look attractive, but the expected outcome might not be good. What I want to observe next is actual migration and retention changes, rather than directly treating risk calculations as income loss.Dumping hard! About 482,000 $SOL moved out in three days, nearly $49.17 million flying out 😂
Just spotted activity on-chain: in the past 3 days, 3 wallets suspected to belong to the same giant whale transferred a total of about 482,228 SOL, worth roughly $49.17 million at the time. The moves look like a sell-off. So far, about 171,430 SOL, around $17.3 million, have been deposited in batches through custody channels into multiple exchanges, and the addresses match.
Doing the math, about 310,000 SOL remain outside exchanges, roughly $31.87 million still in transit. Depositing doesn’t mean they’ve all been sold yet, but seeing this volume on the ledger makes the market tense. Some in the group guess it’s a position shift, others think it’s a dump. Either way, when a whale moves, retail investors are the first to shake. This kind of drama plays out almost daily in crypto, and it’s nerve-wracking for holders.
Newbies are advised to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC $DATA Sony-backed L2 Soneium recently released its vision, with a strategic focus fully shifting to the tokenized IP track, planning to issue SONEIUM tokens. Interestingly, Story (now DATA Network), once a benchmark in the IP on-chain track, chose to completely transform after a crushing defeat in the IP track.
Story's native token IP peaked near $15, now priced at only $0.14, with TVL significantly shrunk. In June 2026, it officially renamed to DATA Network, with tokens swapped 1:1 to DATA, and its business shifted from IP tokenization to AI training data traceability and licensing payment track.
One exits and another enters, old players leave, big companies enter, forming a stark contrast. The core difference lies in: Story targets scattered creators across the network for open IP licensing, making business model validation difficult; Soneium relies on Sony's own anime, music, and entertainment IP resources, deeply cultivating the on-chain entertainment economy. The underlying resource endowments of the two are completely different. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ #strategy Has not purchased Bitcoin but spent $205 million to repurchase STRC
【Follow Old Chive Wealth You Have】Strategy suddenly paused buying Bitcoin and turned around to repurchase STRC with $205 million, what signal does this send?
The market has been watching how much $BTC Strategy has bought, but this time what’s more worth noting is where it used the money. According to the company’s disclosure on October 26, from October 19 to 25, Strategy neither bought nor sold Bitcoin, but spent about $204.9 million to repurchase 2.068 million shares of STRC preferred stock. The company still holds 848,517 Bitcoins, with an average purchase cost of about $75,446.
Why not continue buying BTC, but instead repurchase STRC?
First, an explanation: STRC is not common stock, but a floating rate perpetual preferred stock issued by Strategy, which is different from MSTR common stock and Bitcoin itself.
The core logic of repurchasing this type of preferred stock is capital structure management. If the company can repurchase at a price below the specified amount, it has the opportunity to reduce future preferred stock dividend payments and improve the market performance of related securities.
In other words, Strategy is not suddenly bearish on Bitcoin, but is making choices between different uses of funds. The company has previously established a dedicated digital credit securities repurchase mechanism.
What really needs attention is the change in cash#英特尔代工转型迎来Terafab新变量
Intel is set to release its Q3 earnings after the market closes on October 29, and this report will directly determine whether its foundry transformation can survive.
First, let's look at the fundamentals. Q2 revenue grew 25% year-over-year, and the Q3 guidance is between $15.8 billion and $16.8 billion, so the baseline is maintained. But the market's focus is not on revenue; it is fixated on two extremely critical life-or-death challenges.
The first is the wafer foundry business. The 18A and 14A advanced process nodes have been burning cash to advance, but can the losses in this segment be narrowed? If it continues to lose money like a bottomless pit, Wall Street will definitely vote with its feet. The second is the data center business—amid the crazy demand for AI computing power, can it catch this wave of enormous opportunity?
Now look at the two community comments in the image, which are very informative.
The first comment: Broadcom and Intel CEOs jointly warn that the main constraint on AI expansion is shifting from supply to capital financing. Translated, this means that previously chips were hard to buy; now, money is simply impossible to raise. Giants like Meta and Microsoft borrowing heavily for AI have drained the market, and for capital-intensive Intel, financing costs will be the next fatal blow.
The second comment: ChangXin's DRAM technology breakthrough has directly triggered concerns about storage competition, causing Korean manufacturers and the entire storage supply chain to collapse. This shows that competition within semiconductors has reached a white-hot level—whoever falls behind in technology by even one step is doomed. $INTC $xINTC Nvidia is going to spend $3 billion to buy Meta stock, but I’m not chasing this narrative yet.
Seen: Investing.com reported around 2:16 AM (Eastern Time) today that Nvidia confirmed a $3 billion subscription for Meta equity issuance and expanded cooperation on the Muse model and intelligent agents. More Nvidia computing power and network equipment will be used in data centers.
Meta has raised the common stock issuance to 25 billion, with depositary shares totaling up to about 37.5 billion; on Monday, Nasdaq NVDA closed at 216.00, up 2.39%, with a volume of about 90.83 million shares.
Orbit’s hot topic is still the FOMC and SK Hynix earnings report.
My view: Customers taking money to expand capacity and suppliers subscribing to customer stock again is a typical AI capital closed loop. The sentiment can be hyped, but it doesn’t mean a short-term guaranteed rise.
The FOMC decision is tomorrow, and I’m more interested in whether it can hold near Monday’s close afterward.
What I’ll do: Observe and not chase. Stand firm and watch for a close above 216 and hold Monday’s low at 212.61; if it breaks below Friday’s close near 210.96, this narrative trade is considered invalid for now.
Will you treat this as a signal to add positions, or wait until after the FOMC?
$NVDA $META $AMD
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？SanDisk's performance soars, what exactly has AI brought to it?
Recently, SanDisk ($SNDK) has shown an interesting trend: its stock price experienced a significant pullback, but the company's fundamentals remain quite strong.
Let's look at the performance first. According to current data, SanDisk's FY2026 Q4 revenue is close to $9 billion, with a gross margin exceeding 80%, and data center business growth is particularly notable. The core logic behind this is that AI is changing the demand structure in the storage industry.
In the past, the market focused more on GPUs and computing power, but as AI applications continue to increase, data reading, storage, and retrieval are equally important. Enterprise-grade SSD demand is rising, while NAND flash supply is not easy to increase quickly. Once supply and demand become tight, storage manufacturers gain stronger pricing power.
However, performance growth does not mean profits will always stay high. The storage industry itself is cyclical; the high profits brought by price increases may fall back as supply increases in the future.
So what I care more about is not how much SanDisk has earned this time, but whether AI demand can sustain and how long the high gross margin can be maintained.
But here’s the question: since the fundamentals are so strong, why has SanDisk’s stock price pulled back sharply from its high? I will discuss this in the next article. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Aviva invests £50 million to launch an on-chain fund, but I'm more interested to see if external clients will follow
On October 26, Aviva launched tokenized shares of a GBP currency fund on XRPL and invested £50 million. This actual investment makes the progress feel more concrete, but the £22 billion is the total size of the fund and cannot be fully counted as on-chain capital. Next, I will watch to see if external clients continue to subscribe, and whether share transfers and redemptions are convenient. If the on-chain format makes the fund easier to use for capital allocation and collateral, then it truly adds value. As for how much demand XRP will receive, that still needs to be verified separately.Seeing this, my first reaction was: How could AI agents helping people choose yields affect stablecoin companies? Mizuho stated that AI agents guiding USDC holders to switch to higher-yield fiat alternatives could pose a 10% to 20% downside risk to Circle's mid-term reserve income. This refers to income risk, not that the USDC price will drop by that much.
My understanding is that this is more like a questioning of "why funds are willing to stay," rather than a pure AI benefit. My judgment is that this message is more a reminder about the issuer's income logic than a judgment on stablecoin usage demand; just because someone needs to use USDC doesn't mean they will hold it forever.
Logically, if agents can compare yields and handle transfers for users, then the reason of "too much trouble to move money" weakens. If funds only stay briefly during payments and are transferred elsewhere most of the time, then frequent usage may not bring the same reserve income. This is my speculation; I don't know if it's correct 🤔
But I haven't figured out yet whether higher yields can cover exchange costs, operational thresholds, and users' safety concerns. The material didn't elaborate on how this range is calculated. I've only been in the circle for a year, so I remind myself: next, we need to see if agents can really change holding habits and not treat risk estimates as losses that have already occurred.$BTC is moving sideways around 79,588.6, with a 24h amplitude of only 1.8%, DVOL at 38.1, and options not adding any premium for macro news. Inflation is outweighing employment, which translates to a slower rate cut on the market, suppressing liquidity expectations, so $BTC lacks upward momentum. The data aligns with this direction: funding rate stays near 0.0100%, longs are not paying more; long liquidations are $10.46 million, shorts $9.86 million, neither side is being forced out. Options open interest put/call ratio is 0.80, slightly bullish, but the trading put/call ratio is 0.91, indicating new money is buying protection. Short-term judgment is weak consolidation; first watch if 79,429 holds—breaking below will seek liquidity lower. This message only confirms existing expectations and has limited power to drive the market alone; the real rhythm changer is employment data. Conditions to turn bullish: volume breakout above 80,819.4, and trading put/call ratio returning below 0.80. Bitcoin is currently stuck at 80,000, ETH stuck around 2,300, SOL hovering near 100... neither daring to rise nor fall! It's like a 100-meter sprinter waiting for the starting gun to fire! This week is indeed a turbulent one: Beijing time October 29 at 2:00 AM (Thursday), the Federal Reserve interest rate decision; October 29 at 8:30 PM, US PCE data; October 29 at 9:15 PM, European Central Bank interest rate decision; October 30 at 11:00 AM (Friday), Bank of Japan interest rate decision. Each starting gun could trigger a Bolt-like rapid drop or surge, especially the Fed on the 29th — most likely no rate hike, keeping rates between 3.75% and 4.00%. It seems the market can finally catch a breath, but almost simultaneously, another group is shouting outside: the probability of a global financial crisis in the next six months to two years is increasing. This is very contradictory: the central bank stands still, so why are the big players more nervous? The answer lies in a plain statement: the Fed's “pause” is not risk relief, but that it also dares not make reckless moves. And the warnings from the big players are not fortune-telling but about the same thing — debt is dry kindling, the AI bubble and overvaluation are the oil poured on the kindling, and high interest rates are the spark that refuses to fall. 1. On the surface, it’s a “breather,” but in reality, the Fed “dare not hit the gas nor the brakes.” The mainstream market has almost priced in the Fed pausing rate hikes in October, but at the same time, 100 economists all expect a possible hike in December. See, this is not a “shift to easing” 【On-Chain Review: Don't Let Noise Overwhelm Chip Signals】٩(๑•̀ω•́๑)۶
BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $773.5 million over two days, cutting off the inflow momentum from the previous week, with institutions retreating in the short term; the $80,000–$81,500 cost zone has become a resistance band (｡•́︿•̀｡). More worth watching on-chain: long-term holder supply shrank by over 50,000 coins, roughly 13 times the ETF buying volume; Strategy stopped purchasing, holding 848,000 coins, signs of chip loosening have appeared, don't miss the moves of large holders (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
Macro is also conflicted: BTC down 7.3% and XAU down 7.5% in 2026, both types of safe-haven assets falling in the same year, indicating the hedging logic is failing and risk appetite is being reshuffled (⊙_⊙). Another alarm on the safety front: Market Vector wallet was hacked for $2,021 due to an RBF transaction vulnerability; the amount is small but the signal is significant. Verify signatures before transactions, on-chain security is no small matter (｡･ω･｡)ﾉ♡.
Conclusion: In the short term, watch ETF outflows and cost zone resistance; in the medium term, focus on whether long-term holders and large holders' chips continue to loosen; don't get caught up in daily noise rhythms, the battle between capital and chips is the main storyline (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Also bullish on SOL, but placing stop losses at 99.5 and 97 led to completely different results on Sunday.
That day, the intraday low was 98.77 and the high was 103.07. The price dipped just below the 100 integer level for a bit, but was quickly bought back. The order placed at 99.5 was stopped out, while the one at 97 was untouched, and later the price even returned to 101.
This kind of behavior happens around this level every time. Everyone is watching 100, so naturally stop-loss orders pile up just below 100. Sometimes the price has to dip down first to clear these orders before it can rebound. With light weekend trading, these spikes are even more likely.
On the flip side of the integer level, buy orders also accumulate here. Since October, 100 has been defended several times, leaving many long lower shadows on the candlesticks, showing that there are buyers below. Among these buyers are spot holders and long contract traders, who face different situations: spot holders can ignore a dip, but contract traders must act when the price hits their level.
Leverage is even more direct. Positions with over 50x leverage get liquidated with less than a 2-point retracement. From 103 to 98.77 is a drop of over 4%, so high-leverage positions can't wait for a rebound at that low. Some split their positions into two orders, one at 102 and one at 99, averaging a cost around 100.5, which can hold a bit longer in a Sunday market like this. $SOL $BTC liquidation map shows 3 billion downwards and 10 billion upwards. The last time this 1 to 3.3 ratio appeared was before the bull run on August 16, at the end of the bear market. One indicator cannot predict the future direction, but at least it shows that the shakeout over the past month has been very successful. $SUI #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Bitcoin V1 Version Attack and Theft of 8.5 BTC: An Early Warning on Bitcoin Vulnerabilities and Quantum Resistance Risks
1. Nature of the Incident: Early Protocol Design Flaws Show Security Is Not Invulnerable
The earliest Bitcoin V1 original client had a code verification logic vulnerability that allowed hackers to bypass checks and illegally transfer assets, directly stealing 8.5 BTC. Many believed back then that Bitcoin's cryptographic system was "absolutely secure and unbreakable," but this attack shattered that naive belief:
Bitcoin's security relies on a dual guarantee of code implementation plus cryptographic algorithms; it does not inherently possess an everlasting security aura.
At that time, it was ordinary computers and code bugs that broke it; future potential threats include quantum computers attacking the elliptic curve secp256k1 signature algorithm cryptographically. History has proven that even mechanisms widely trusted as secure can have fatal weaknesses.
2. Vulnerability Fixes Depend on Network-wide Coordination, a Governance Challenge and Today’s Biggest Pain Point in Quantum Upgrades
After the vulnerability was discovered, Satoshi Nakamoto, all nodes, and miners needed to upgrade patches synchronously and reach unified consensus to block the vulnerability and mitigate risks.
The logic is identical in today’s quantum risk scenario: to resist Shor’s algorithm attacks, BTC must switch network-wide to a quantum signature scheme, requiring consensus among miners, exchanges, wallets, whales, and ordinary users.
Coordinating an upgrade for a simple code bug back then already tested community execution; replacing the underlying cryptographic algorithm now involves far greater difficulty, disagreement, and migration costs than the V1 patch upgrade. This early incident exposed Bitcoin’s governance model’s inherent shortcoming—it lacks a centralized authority to enforce upgrades, making it easy to get stuck in consensus deadlocks during security crises.
3. "Risks Won’t Erupt Immediately, but Hidden Dangers Will Linger on the Chain Long-term," Highly Similar to Public Key Exposure Risks
Before exploitation, the V1 vulnerability quietly existed in the code, just lacking triggering conditions;
Currently, about 30% of Bitcoin addresses have exposed public keys permanently stored on-chain, effectively leaving “targets to be cracked” for future quantum computers—this is a static latent risk.
The commonality: hidden dangers may not erupt now, but once the corresponding attack tools mature, existing assets will be exposed en masse. This early theft incident was a small-scale rehearsal: underlying risks don’t disappear on their own; they wait for the right attack conditions.
4. Many Confuse Bitcoin’s Security with "SHA256 Hash Security," Blurring Security Boundaries
Bitcoin mining uses SHA256 hashing, widely considered quantum-resistant by academia; but transaction signatures use elliptic curve ECDSA, which is the weak link.
When V1 was stolen, many mistakenly thought the entire system was invulnerable, overlooking this weak link.
The same cognitive error is easy in the quantum era: many assume Bitcoin’s hash security equals overall quantum resistance, underestimating the signature security weakness. This early attack reminds us: a chain’s security is determined by its weakest link.
5. Historical Lesson: Vulnerability Risks Are Often Overlooked When Consensus Is Most Zealous
The V1 period was when Bitcoin’s early faith rapidly solidified, and the market mythologized its cryptographic security, underestimating software and protocol flaws.
Today, after decades of consensus accumulation, many still assume its cryptographic system is permanently usable, ignoring long-term threats accelerated by AI-driven quantum iteration.
The historical theft of 8.5 BTC serves as a warning: no matter how strong consensus is, it cannot override the objective law that underlying cryptography becomes obsolete with technological iteration.
6. Comparative Perspective: This Incident Highlights the Differentiated Value of Native Quantum-Resistant Public Chains
Bitcoin could only patch after the fact and coordinate network-wide upgrades; whereas chains like STRK, designed from the ground up with post-quantum cryptography, relying on STARK hash proof systems and account abstraction, proactively address cryptographic iteration risks without waiting for crises to force difficult network hard forks.
Of course, this is only a design-level difference; whether a project can successfully launch L1 and complete full-chain quantum resistance audits still involves many uncertainties.
7. Dialectical Boundary (Must Distinguish Two Types of Attacks, Not Confuse Them)
V1 theft = traditional code bug exploitable by classical computers;
Quantum risk = cryptographic math problem cracked by Shor’s algorithm, a fundamental algorithmic threat.
This incident does not prove quantum attacks are imminent but leaves the industry with the most important warning: never blindly and permanently trust a fixed underlying security scheme; cryptographic security must evolve continuously with computing power and technology iteration.Don't think of tech giants as such drama queens, with factions and life-or-death battles; this is purely mistaking business competition for palace intrigue.
Elon Musk's plan is to use production capacity to lower prices, but his own SpaceXAI is also a major consumer of computing power. If storage prices really drop, the whole industry benefits—where's the coercion or curse?
Jensen Huang's guarantee for NeoCloud is basically just to sell his GPUs and lock in customers.
As for Anthropic, paying for 10GW of computing power with convertible bonds precisely shows that the AI large model arms race has not stopped at all.
As long as the giants keep scrambling for computing power regardless of cost, the so-called overcapacity is a false proposition.
It's too early to call a computing power glut now; everyone is just racing to claim territory. Don't rush to guess who will fail, and don't apply conspiracy theories to normal business competition.🔍 The treasury has money, so should funding stop? Don't rush to conclusions. Zcash co-founder Sean Bowe stated that the treasury holds $125 million and proposed to terminate funding allocations, transferring the committee's original 8% share of newly minted $ZEC to a future miner reserve, while the funds already received remain with the committee. This is a proposal, not something already implemented.
An interesting detail here: the old funds remain untouched; what changes is the destination of new funds. I tend to see this as a reallocation of incentives rather than a direct benefit. Retaining the old funds means the committee won't immediately run out of resources; however, if new allocations stop, how long subsequent funding can continue depends on actual expenditures, not just the total treasury balance.
This is my speculation: if the proposal is adopted, the funding arrangement may lean more toward future mining incentives, and teams relying on allocations will need to reconsider their budgets. I will continue to monitor whether the proposal passes and whether treasury spending can justify stopping allocations.#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Before today's U.S. stock market opens, Coca-Cola, Corning, and Boeing will release earnings. How is the options market betting?
Brothers, for these three earnings reports before tonight's open, don't be fooled by the "usual suspects"; the options market has already laid its cards on the table.
Coca-Cola is expected to report EPS of 0.88 and revenue of 12.9 billion. But this stock has already risen 35% this year, with a Put/Call ratio of 0.99 in options—purely neutral, neither bulls nor bears dare to bet heavily. The market is really watching not the EPS, but whether the Asia-Pacific sales volume increase can offset the 9% drop in price mix—volume up, price down, making noise but not profit.
Corning is expected to report EPS of 0.88 and revenue of 5 billion. The Call/Put ratio is 1.3, leaning bullish. The logic is solid: demand for fiber optics from AI data centers, contracts with Amazon, Nvidia, and Meta are all there, and the Zacks model tags it as "possibly beating expectations." But remember, the last time after earnings, the stock dropped 12% in one day; this stock's temperament is to get hammered even with good results.
Boeing is expected to report a loss of 0.21 EPS and revenue of 23.8 billion. Options pricing implies a 5.73% two-way volatility, higher than the average 4% of the past four times. Long or short? It's unclear, but the direction is clear: the market is betting on big swings. The 737 MAX 10 just got certification, but the cash flow guidance is the real key, and the stock price is just a step away from its 52-week low.
For Coca-Cola, watch if profit margins can hold; for Corning, watch if the AI story can deliver; for Boeing, watch if cash flow can make sense. $KO $GLW 3 PM, the last calm before the FOMC is often the most dangerous.
BTC current price is about 80,800, locked between 80,000 and 86,000 for the past 9 days, with 30-day volatility compressed from 13% to 6%. Volatility contraction usually ends with a burst. Selling pressure concentrates around 81,000, but there are about $73 million buy orders stacked above 79,300 — it looks like there is support, but just this weekend it dipped to 79,146 briefly; when liquidity is thin, orders can't stop the dip. The 365-day moving average is right below, and my forced liquidation line at 78,837 is even lower. Any accelerated dip after a false break below 80,000 could directly hit me.
ETH is about 2,350, with 2,280–2,300 as the last support zone. Last night, a whale was liquidated at 2,282 minus 30 dollars, urgently adding 9.21 million USDC to push the forced liquidation price down to 2,181 — institutions are all adding margin, indicating that line is not a "technical support" but a "liquidation gravity." My 2,281 is right in there.
SOL is about 101, with the 100-dollar level repeatedly tested. Short-term moving averages are all pressing overhead, RSI at 35, stochastic indicators already in oversold territory, but oversold does not mean the decline stops, just that it slows down. ETFs are still flowing out, so SOL finding strength on its own is difficult.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ After the market closed on Wednesday, Google released its Q3 earnings report. Google's recent performance has been poor, with a nearly 20% pullback over the past 120 days, the largest among MAGS. The current PE ratio is only 16, and the stock price has fallen below the 200-day moving average.
There are three main reasons for Google's stock price pullback: first, market concerns that AI threatens the core search business, thereby affecting advertising revenue (which accounts for over 70% of Google's revenue); second, Gemini's performance lagging behind; third, Google's free cash flow turned negative for the first time last quarter, although other cloud providers face the same situation. The main reasons are still the first and second.
This Google earnings report needs to convey three signals to the market: first, the core business revenue has not lost market share or decreased due to AI. The current market expectation for Q3 advertising revenue is $83.2–$84.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12.5%–13%. Second, Gemini's performance optimization. Gemini is currently entering the search field and is also advancing consumer-grade products.
The third issue is free cash flow. If capital expenditures this quarter are similar to Q2, operating cash flow will be sufficient to cover these expenditures, and Google is expected to return to positive free cash flow.
The biggest surprise in Google's earnings is Cloud. Cloud revenue is expected to exceed $30 billion this quarter, with remaining performance obligations exceeding $550 billion, and growth exceeding 90%. This means it has begun to catch up with capital expenditure growth, which will greatly boost the stock price.To pour some cold water first, I don't consider the “SEC Innovation Exemption” as a free pass for stock tokenization. According to PANews citing reporters, IBM, Oracle, Intel, and IonQ have newly opposed OKX and ICE Markets tokenizing their stocks, bringing the total number of opposing issuers to 26. My short-term outlook on this track is bearish.
There are two reasons: 26 oppositions indicate that resistance from issuers cannot be ignored; if objections need to be coordinated one by one, the product launch pace may be delayed. Another is that just because tokens can be traded doesn't mean the rights of holders are clear; if the boundaries of rights are vague, I speculate that ordinary users' willingness to participate will also be discounted.
Those who are bullish might agree. If the SEC clearly defines feasible boundaries, issuer objections are addressed, and holder rights are clearly arranged, I would change my stance. Regarding these 26 oppositions, do you lean bullish or bearish on stock tokenization? Share your reasoning.The recent stagnant consolidation essentially reflects the macro environment waiting for the starting gun: with the Fed's policy meeting approaching this week, the market is generally holding steady but fears Powell's hawkish tone and a renewed expectation of a rate hike in December; meanwhile, the Middle East not striking Iran is only a short-term cooldown, election risks remain unresolved, compounded by concentrated outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum last Thursday and Friday, with Ethereum seeing continuous net outflows, leading to a lack of incremental buying on the floor. AI tech stocks are also diverting risk capital, so the price comparison is not smoothly falling nor is the rebound strong, naturally leading to compression. In the short term, expect a 791-810 range consolidation. From the overall pattern, bears still hold the advantage. Going forward, focus on effective breakouts above or below the range; until a breakout occurs, the trading strategy should mainly be to short on rallies. $BTC $ETH In the futures market, industrial enterprises shift their budgets from R&D to production support. I usually first look at what the money is being repurposed for, without rushing to judge whether it's bullish or bearish. In the crypto market, this also involves who decides the allocation of issuance revenue.
Sean Bowe, co-founder of Zcash, proposed terminating grant funding on the grounds that the treasury holds $125 million, suggesting that the committee transfer 8% of the newly minted $ZEC to a reserve fund aimed at future miners. The committee would retain the funds it has already received; this is still just a proposal.
I see this more as a long-term incentive realignment rather than an immediate price catalyst: retaining existing funds does not mean grants are cut off immediately; a reserve for future miners does not mean current security investments increase. My concern is that if spending from the treasury lacks planning after stopping grants, the development side might face pressure. Are there friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? Would you see this as an improvement in budget discipline or a contraction in R&D investment? Federal Reserve decision revealed tonight: The real battleground in the crypto market is in the "wording" rather than the interest rate
In the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. The market widely expects no change — probability about 90%. But for crypto investors, the real eye of the storm is not the interest rate itself, but how the wording in the statement handles the December policy.
Risk-off sentiment has already fermented in advance. Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Monday, marking the third test of this psychological level in three weeks; Ethereum simultaneously dipped near $2,300, with mainstream coins generally under pressure. Wintermute pointed out that BTC has been oscillating narrowly between $80,000 and $82,500 in the past three weeks, and the FOMC "is very likely to decide the breakout direction." QCP Capital identified key supports: Bitcoin at $78,000, Ethereum at $2,150.
The core variable lies in how the statement sets the tone for December. The market has priced in about an 84% chance of a rate hike in December. If Waller strengthens the tightening stance at the press conference, the downside will open after $80,000 is broken; conversely, if the wording leaves room for December, Bitcoin is expected to reclaim $82,000, and Ethereum can also get a breather.
The key turning point has never been "whether to raise rates," but "what to say next." Tonight, language is direction.
$BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 最脆弱的一环不在价格，在杠杆的多头心里。 FOMC前夜，谁还在硬撑？ 今天看盘有种很微妙的感觉：表面风平浪静，底下全是被动挨打的仓位。BTC在79800到79330之间磨，摸过80291的顶又软下来，24小时跌了0.54%到0.76%，月内累计回撤约5%，已经连跌三周。恐惧贪婪指数48，中性，比之前的50还降了一点，情绪在悄悄泄气。 衍生品这边才是重点。24小时爆仓约1.35亿美元，其中多头占了9174万，比例高得有点刺眼。翻译一下：押涨的人正在FOMC前主动撤退，不是被吓跑，是提前认输。这种多头挤压往往意味着短期抛压释放了一部分，但也说明市场不敢在决议前加注，反弹的燃料变少了。 真正的重定价藏在利率预期里。本次按兵不动的概率90.6%到91%，几乎板上钉钉，但12月加息概率已经蹿到接近80%。市场交易的早就不是这次会怎样，而是"宽松叙事还能撑多久"。这个预期差如果继续发酵，风险偏好会被一点点抽走，BTC首当其冲，ETH跟跌，山寨的弹性只会更夸张。 偏多的路径也有：多头清洗得够狠，决议落地后利空出尽，容易出现一波挤压式反弹，尤其是空头如果堆起来。但风险没被充分计价的地方在于，12月加息Deep oversold + short squeeze, the rebound is "mechanical"
Looking at the technical side, the nature of this rebound is clear at a glance.
According to KuCoin Research data: BTC's 1-hour and 15-minute RSI levels were only 52.4 and 54.9 respectively before the rebound, while the daily RSI was at 44.2. The short-term cycle turning up from the oversold zone is a classic trigger condition for a technical rebound.
But more directly, the liquidation data shows a directional reversal. On a 24-hour scale, long positions liquidated $33.8 million, short positions liquidated $19.5 million, with longs dying more. However, in the last 12 hours, shorts liquidated $16.5 million, longs liquidated $10.8 million, with shorts overtaking.
To translate: the weekend's drop was longs dying. Monday's rebound is shorts dying.
Those who chased shorts below 79,500 to 80,000 were betting that "breaking 80,000 means a trend." Their liquidation lines were triggered by the rebound, forcing them to buy to close positions. A significant portion of the fuel for this rebound from 79,146 to 80,300 comes from the shorts' own margin. $BTC $ETH $DOOD #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 $UNITREE
Today's intraday information is very clear. After a surge in the morning session, it has been grinding below the average price, obviously a group of smart money doesn't want to hold through the uncertainty overnight and has exited early.
Right now, sentiment > performance, valuation is sky-high, combining both elasticity and damage potential.
Don't heavily bet on earnings announcements in the short term:
If the good news exceeds expectations, don't get carried away chasing the high; it's easy to get hit with a long upper shadow candle. If performance is mediocre or guidance disappoints, don't stubbornly hold on; high valuations can punish without mercy. The first thing to watch short term is support; the intraday low is the short-term sentiment watershed.
Talking about the long term:
Long-term buying of Unitree is not for current profits, but for the realization of expectations in humanoid robots and self-developed servo physical AI.
The sector logic is sound, but the realization cycle is extremely long. Long-term investors must accept that the market will repeatedly slap them in the face, and from time to time someone will jump out and say, "Isn't this just a toy?"
The core long-term tracking points are simple: servo shipment volume, fixed-point orders, and whether gross margin can be maintained. Continuous order fulfillment means the story is not empty talk; if it stays stuck at prototypes and exhibitions, no matter how good the theme sounds, it can't support hundreds of times price-to-earnings.
Short term is about playing with sentiment, capital, and earnings expectations; if the rhythm is off, you get hit quickly; long term is about enduring the sector's verification, testing patience, and you can't just lie down and wait to get rich.
Unitree is suitable for small position trial-and-error speculation, not for going all in. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
SK Hynix announces earnings tonight, has the options market already voted with real money?
Brothers, SK Hynix will release its Q3 results after the US market closes tonight, and the conference call in Korea starts at 9 AM tomorrow. This stock is no longer about betting on earnings, but on dividends.
The market's biggest concern is whether the 16 trillion won dividend will be paid. The company says "not yet decided," but has promised in black and white to announce an additional shareholder return plan after the board meeting on the 28th.
The previous 40 trillion won buyback has already been completed ahead of schedule. Now they are holding the money earned from selling Kioxia shares, and market expectations are very high. The earnings themselves? Revenue is expected to triple year-on-year to 99 trillion won, but Q2 missed once already, so no one is confidently betting on it this time.
How is the options market positioned? Mostly bullish, but very restrained.
Last week, there was $1.49 million in Bull Put Spreads at 190/150 collecting premium, and $480,000 in Bull Call Spreads betting on 200-225. The Put/Call ratio is 0.48, well below the normal 0.74, with Calls clearly dominant. But don't get carried away—the implied volatility prices in an 8.58% move after earnings, so both bulls and bears are betting on direction, not giving away money one-sidedly.
Options money is betting on "holding 140, touching 200," but the premise is that the dividend plan must not disappoint. Earnings beating expectations would be icing on the cake; a dividend shortfall would be fatal. Tonight, the focus is not on revenue numbers, but on those few words about shareholder returns during the conference call.SpaceX's planned $40B lease financing for GPUs and data centers shows how AI infrastructure is becoming a credit-market story, not just a technology race. Starlink and launch revenue may strengthen funding access, but returns still hinge on delivery timing, financing costs, and compute demand. A year-end closing would not settle those questions.
#SpaceX40BGPUDealAgreed The largest coin hoarding company made zero purchases in a week; don't take it as a bottom-fishing invitation.
Noticed: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed that from 10/19 to 10/25 it neither bought nor sold Bitcoin, holding steady at 848,517 coins, while repurchasing STRC preferred shares worth about $204.9 million during the same period; CME FedWatch prices about a 90% chance the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged on 10/28. OKX current price is about $79,700, with a 24-hour high of $80,849.9 and low of $79,455.8—stuck just below $80,000.
My view: The halt in buying is a company capital management move, not a buy signal for you; the rate hold is almost fully priced in, betting on a dovish statement to bottom-fish is the easiest way to get cut.
What I do: Stand firm and observe, don’t chase this "breakdown bargain"; if it breaks below the 24-hour low of $79,455.8 and fails to recover, consider this round of "$80k psychological support" invalid.
Before the FOMC statement, don’t assume a trend reversal to bullish.
Do you think $BTC will first hover around $79k, or continue testing $77k?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Strategy停买比特币 #美联储议息前观望 #Strategy暂停增持，Strive与BitMine扩大储备 Anthropic, the parent company of Claude, has released stunning Q3 data.
At the investor meeting on October 14, it was disclosed that quarterly revenue reached $16.8 billion, a 45% quarter-over-quarter surge, with revenue for the first three quarters already seven times last year's total.
The rolling 12-month growth rate peaked at 1200%, an exceptionally rare level of growth.
The growth is mainly driven by B2B enterprise purchases, with 80% of revenue coming from corporate clients, and the number of million-dollar clients has doubled.
Claude Code has ignited developer demand, combined with cloud channel expansion, and Q3 free cash flow has already turned positive, with October revenue accelerating further.
The key point is not just that AI companies are making money, but that it answers a core market question: the AI investments made can truly convert into sustainable cash flow.
The AI narrative is shifting from a story to financial report realization, and this logic will follow Nasdaq risk sentiment, indirectly transmitting to BTC.
This week, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple are releasing earnings reports; let's see if resonance can be formed.
Do you think the AI commercialization market can continue to ferment? Follow for ongoing earnings analysis during earnings week.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $GOOGL $AAPL $MSFT 10.27 Financial Summary
1. The Dollar System 2.0 is a "Four-in-One" Combination
The Dollar itself: It still holds the dominant position in global trade and foreign exchange reserves, with the depth of the US Treasury market as its foundation.
Oil and key energy: The US continuously strengthens its control over the global energy market through military and other means; the dollar settlement right in energy trade is the basis of traditional hegemony.
AI chip semiconductors: The US leads in high-end chips and foundational models, but we are catching up quickly; the next 2-3 years are a critical competitive window.
Cryptocurrency and stablecoins: This is a new variable in the digital era. After the US "Genius Act" officially takes effect in January next year, progress will accelerate. Stablecoins will be deeply linked with the dollar and US Treasuries, becoming an extension of the dollar in the digital world.
2. Our response logic is very clear: first secure safety, then seek opportunities
Currently, the mainland is a major financial country but not yet a financial power, so the top priority is to maintain the financial safety bottom line.
Hong Kong’s positioning is an "offshore testing ground": it has the foundation of an offshore market and can isolate financial risks from the mainland, effectively serving as a "firewall" for us.
If it keeps pace: If stablecoins and tokenized markets truly become the trend, we can gain discourse power and opportunities through Hong Kong.
If it retreats: If development falls short of expectations, risks will not transmit to the mainland, avoiding major damage.
3. Timing window judgment
The US has accelerated progress on these four elements this year because it feels its "window period" is narrowing.
There is still some convergence this year, but starting next year, it will push forward rapidly and comprehensively, so our response window is actually very tight.
4. Additional information
Core of the "Genius Act": It requires stablecoin issuers to use US Treasuries and dollars as reserves, essentially converting global demand for stablecoins into demand for US Treasuries, further consolidating the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, while bringing stablecoins under US regulatory oversight to combat illegal financial activities.
Hong Kong’s actual actions: In 2026, it is already advancing stablecoin issuer regulations, digital asset trading licenses, and trial operations of a gold central clearing system, truly moving toward becoming an "offshore financial testing ground."
Summary: The Dollar System 2.0 is a combination of "traditional hegemony + new digital track." Our response is "using Hong Kong as a buffer, neither absent from future digital financial competition nor allowing risks to breach the firewall." $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 On the eve of the FOMC: Four coins waiting for each other
Tuesday morning session, the last full day before the decision, the market is generally cautious.
$BTC is consolidating around 80,700, holding sideways at 80,000 for two days; after losing 81,000, it has not quickly reclaimed it. On-chain whales are distributing around 80,000, but retail inflows hit a six-month high. The probability of the FOMC holding steady at midnight is 84.5%, with focus on Powell's press conference: if 80,000 breaks, watch 78,000; if dovish, look at 82,000. It is not advisable to heavily bet on direction now.
$ENA is at 0.209, after an 8% rally two days ago due to preemptive rate cut expectations, it has stabilized, and chasing high is paused. Its USDe collateralized short-term Treasury yield logic remains; if the decision is dovish, it may rebound again; if hawkish, it might give back gains. Not recommended to chase.
$HYPE is at 76.6, on-chain exchanges did not follow the rally. Its order book is built on a self-developed L1, with protocol fees flowing back to holders; it did not follow ENA's rise, indicating funds prefer the yield narrative. 75 is the next level to watch; avoid leverage before the decision.
$WLD is at 0.472, consolidating for a day. The iris identity network lacks an interest rate story, privacy controversies and regulatory ambiguity remain; before the decision, it is more prone to follow the broader market with potentially larger volatility than mainstream coins.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Even with macro liquidity easing further, it cannot patch security vulnerabilities in protocols. On Nexus reported that its older trading platform DotSwap V1 was attacked; the attacker exploited the legacy server-side signature mechanism and within about 4 hours transferred approximately 8.5 BTC from liquidity pools and accounts, valued at around $685,000.
My speculation is: if external liquidity tightens, such incidents will raise the risk threshold for capital participation in Bitcoin DeFi. The reason is practical: if the old mechanism can still cause losses, capital must reassess security costs; if users withdraw liquidity as a result, trading depth may also be pressured, affecting the remaining users.
I tend to view this as a repricing of security risk rather than a direct macro negative for $BTC. Beyond the amount, I am more concerned whether capital is willing to continue bearing protocol risk. Facing this kind of news, are people now more focused on the Fed's interest rate path or on the impact of dollar liquidity on on-chain capital inflows?Is the coin-buying maniac Saylor not buying BTC this week? This time, the money was spent on his own company's stock. Last week, Strategy took out $205 million to repurchase about 2.06 million shares of STRC preferred stock, while the BTC holdings remain at 848,517 coins, not a single one added.
Seeing this news, my first reaction was also: Is the guy out of money? Looking further into the accounts, there’s still about $242 million in regular cash, and another $4.83 billion in dollar reserves, mainly kept for dividends and debt interest. The disposable cash has indeed decreased quite a bit, but just because he didn’t buy for one week doesn’t mean he’s out of funds. In the previous two weeks, he was still buying BTC while repurchasing STRC; this time he only bought preferred stock.
For the market, the bulls lost a familiar buying signal, which is a bit discouraging. Especially since BTC is still hovering around 79,800, just climbed back above 80,000 and got pushed down again. The 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80,041; until this is reclaimed, I’m not eager to chase longs. I want to wait and see around 79,000; if someone steps in, trying a small position is fine; if it really drops straight down, I might hesitate to press further. If longs break below 78,800, I’ll exit first, and take some off near 80,000, so I don’t get too optimistic after a rebound thinking it will go straight to 81,000.
I’m quite curious if Saylor will buy again next week. If he posts another buying chart, those who criticized him for being out of money today will probably immediately change their tune and shout that the bull market is back.Previously, after contract liquidations, the market could still recover on the same day. But in the past two days, after contract liquidations, the overall open interest (OI) in the contract market has generally dropped by more than 20%. This indicates that the entire market is waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision.
The fact that there will be no rate hike is basically certain. The market's focus is actually on the Fed's tone: whether it will proceed with a scheduled rate hike in December and another one next year, or take a more aggressive stance to fight inflation. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
This week, the critical points for several major coins basically lie in liquidity and interest rate stance:
$BTC's 80,000 level was originally a strong support, but now everyone is indifferent to it. Currently, BTC is below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages (both lines pressing near 82,000), with an RSI of 42.7, neutral to slightly bearish.
The 80,000 round number is now a psychological level and also the cost line for ETF participants. October still saw a net outflow of about 314 million. If the Fed's tone remains hawkish, I estimate it will break below 79,000.
$ETH has been the weakest in the past half month, with price holding below the 2,320 USD pivot, suppressed by the 50-period EMA. Exchange reserves have climbed to 14.93 million coins ready to sell anytime. Coinbase premium dropped to -0.1173, the lowest in two months. October ETF net outflow of about 1.08 billion is the worst of the year. If there is a hawkish statement, it will break below 2,200.
$SOL has the greatest elasticity but is most tightly bound by macro factors. It has now dropped below the 100.58 USD pivot, with RSI at 44.9, showing weakness.
SOL has potential because its ecosystem is real: Q3 saw 8.92 billion non-voting transactions, up 104% year-on-year, and September stablecoin transfers hit a record 5.57 billion. There is price misalignment here; once macro conditions recover, SOL's gains will be significant. A-share Queen Zhang Sufen was silent after seeing it: "CORE hard fork saved the chain, but who will take the 69 million 'ghost chips'?"
Investors familiar with Zhang Sufen's contrarian strategy know clearly that she dares to lurk in low-position unpopular stocks only when the risk boundaries are clear, with no hidden time bombs. Even if the listed company's performance is sluggish, there won't suddenly appear a large unknown chip amount to crash the market at any time; the total share capital and unlocking schedule are all open and transparent, and negative factors are measurable. In contrast, although the CORE hard fork urgently plugged the reward loophole and destroyed 186 million abnormal tokens still in the loophole address, saving the protocol from being destroyed by infinite inflation—one could say the hard fork saved this chain—69 million ghost chips had long been transferred to external wallets and cannot be recovered. This chip amount is an unpredictable hidden risk hanging over all holders' heads. The most terrifying aspect of this chip amount is: the holder's identity is unknown, the selling time is unknown, and the selling scale is unknown. Once the market warms up, it could be dumped in batches at any time, causing sudden selling pressure during the rise. In Zhang Sufen's evaluation system, this unquantifiable hidden chip risk is an extremely dangerous variable. Zhang Sufen, doing contrarian investment, can tolerate long-term price declines but will not accept a huge latent selling pressure with completely unknown unlocking time. The hard fork only stopped the bleeding; it did not eliminate the biggest chip risk. Even if the coin price is low, as long as the ghost chips remain, combined with continuous withdrawal of validation nodes and the SatPay landing being far off, it does not meet her stock selection safety standards. Folks, Glassnode just released a very interesting set of data, which is good news for those of us looking to get in now✨!
Here's a simple translation:
At the end of September, almost 100% of the short-term buyers of Bitcoin were making a profit😳. Think about it, when everyone is profiting, even a slight dip will cause everyone to rush to take profits, creating extremely heavy selling pressure.
But now? The profit ratio of this group has dropped to around 70%. This means that after a month of ups and downs, some of the people who chased the highs have given back profits or even got stuck. The impulse to "dump and run" has clearly cooled down💔.
So, for those optimistic about Bitcoin's future trend, the current entry environment is indeed much healthier than the extreme "everyone profiting" state from a month ago. Selling pressure has eased, so the resistance to upward movement is reduced. But remember, lighter selling pressure doesn't mean an immediate surge; it just means the foundation is more stable.
Do you think this is a good time to slowly build a position? Come to the comments and share your thoughts👇🥺
$BTC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The Federal Reserve's policy meeting officially started today 📅 Let's clarify the timeline first: The meeting runs from October 27 to 28 US time, today is the first day; the interest rate statement won't be released until 2 AM Beijing time on October 29, so don't rush to expect results during the day.
This time, I'm focusing on three things 👀 First, whether the interest rate aligns with market expectations; if it's already priced in, the number alone has limited significance. Second, how the Fed describes inflation and the subsequent path; if they continue to emphasize pressure and hint at maintaining high rates, risk assets might feel uncomfortable. Third, my biggest concern is BTC's movement: if it doesn't fall under bearish news, it means selling pressure might not be strong; if the news isn't bad but the rebound is weak, we should be wary of the market's own weakness.
Personally, I'm still cautious 🧊 I won't call a reversal just because of a pre-meeting rebound, nor will I conclude BTC must fall just because of the meeting. The key is not how hawkish or dovish the statement wording is, but the market's real reaction after hearing it. Is this meeting a turning point for BTC, or just another round of bulls and bears cutting each other? We'll keep watching 🔍
$BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 In the futures market, when the discount widens, I usually first look at hedging and position pressure, and I don't rush to conclude that prices will continue to fall. Turning to crypto, I also treat the funding rate as a signal of position cost rather than a directional indicator.
The public market data for Hyperliquid perpetual contracts shows that the highest absolute funding rate currently is for WLD, at -0.0067% per hour, which annualizes to about -59%, with a 24-hour change of -1.49%. A negative funding rate means shorts pay longs, which differs from traditional delivery contracts; perpetuals use this fee to balance longs and shorts.
My judgment is that this is more like a short cost warning rather than a bottom-fishing signal: if the negative funding rate persists, the cost of holding short positions will accumulate; but paying the fee does not necessarily mean shorts will exit, and prices may still face downward pressure. The annualized figure is just a projection based on the current rate and should not be considered a fixed return. Are there any friends who have transitioned from traditional markets and, when encountering such negative funding rates, interpret them like futures discounts?#BTC pullback after a rally, has market rotation begun? BTC is repeatedly tugging around $80,000, testing this level for the third time after three consecutive weeks of decline. The $79,400–$80,800 range is the short-term core battleground. The FOMC meeting will most likely determine the breakout direction; if $80,000 fails to hold, the next support is at $76,000. Standard Chartered has cut its year-end target from $150,000 to $100,000, with institutions clearly turning cautious on short-term upside. $BTC The sun is rising from the west? The coin-buying maniac Saylor has actually stopped! He hasn't bought a single BTC in the past week; instead, he spent $205 million to repurchase 2.06 million shares of STRC preferred stock. He still holds over 840,000 BTC. The tone has suddenly changed—what kind of signal is this?
Don't listen to analysts talking about "optimizing capital structure"—to put it bluntly, even landlords have to do the math. STRC has floating dividends, so the buyback is just to save some future interest payments. But the reality is, after spending over $200 million, he has no money left to keep buying BTC. Also, looking at his books, the ordinary cash balance has dropped to only $240 million; the remaining tens of billions in reserves are lifesaving funds reserved for paying dividends and debt interest, which he can't touch.
Is he chickening out? Not necessarily, but he definitely is under financial pressure. In the short term, this is definitely a minor negative sentiment. BTC is already struggling like a dead dog around 80,000; the biggest bullish player suddenly stops supplying, and the market loses a major pillar. Expecting an immediate V-shaped rebound now is pure nonsense.
But I don't think the bull market is completely over. He's just adjusting finances, not liquidating and running. Next, let's closely watch two things: when he resumes buying coins and how much cash remains on his books. Don't rush to catch the falling knife. If BTC drops to 79,000 to 80,000 on this negative news with shrinking volume and stabilizes, then I'll consider picking up some bloodied chips. If it falls below 79,000 directly, just wait patiently for 77,000 to reassess. As for ETH, I don't even want to touch it for now.