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Bitcoin and gold have both bottomed out together this year, something that has never happened before.
By late October, Bitcoin had dropped 7.3% for the year, gold fell 7.5%, ranking last two among 21 major asset classes. During the same period, the US large-cap stocks rose about 12%, commodities increased by more than 50%, the gap is obvious at a glance.
Bitcoin is now hovering around 80,000. This week, with the Fed's interest rate decision and major corporate earnings reports coming together, the market is waiting for direction. Don't fully load your positions before the rate decision; saving some bullets is more important than guessing the direction.Brothers
In 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $151 million, with 68,160 people being taken out. The largest single liquidation was a BTC short position on Hyperliquid, liquidated at 80,700 for $1.85 million. Binance accounted for 47% of the liquidations, where the most people got harvested.
Focus on the structural changes: in the 24-hour dimension, longs liquidated $79.85 million, shorts liquidated $70.67 million, roughly half and half, 53% to 47%, a typical churning market.
But looking shorter term is interesting— in the last 4 hours, shorts liquidated $8.57 million, more than longs’ $7.34 million; in the last 12 hours, shorts liquidated $36.21 million, also more than longs’ $29.09 million. This shows the recent rebound first swept out the shorts.
As a result, in the last 1 hour, longs liquidated $2.85 million again, shorts only $1.37 million. See? The market just finished sweeping the shorts and then turned to sweep the longs downward.
This is a typical up-and-down pin action washout—liquidating shorts when prices rise, liquidating longs when prices fall, eating fees back and forth. 68,000 people got liquidated, both longs and shorts, showing that no matter your direction, heavy positions mean death.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC First, a bit of cold water: I lean bearish, but seeing a large short position doesn't automatically make me nod in agreement. Core Trader 57 just opened a short on ZEC with 7x leverage, with a nominal position of about $50,400. This trade is a bet on a decline, not proof of a decline; my judgment is that the direction can be discussed, but right now it can't be taken as evidence of bearishness.
I'm stuck on two points. One is that monitoring only shows the opening action, not the full account picture. This could be a one-sided bet or a hedge; you can't infer how bearish it is just from this address's action. Two, judging direction and enduring the path are two different things: roughly calculating with 7x leverage, if the price first rises 10% against the position, the loss would consume about 70% of the initial margin, excluding fees and margin adjustments. This isn't an exact liquidation line, but it shows that if the market first squeezes upward, the shorts who need to add margin or are forced to reduce positions will suffer.
Of course, this trader might be right. The condition for me to change my view is if the price weakens afterward and the rebound fails to recover near the reference price of this opening; that convinces me more than just looking at the position size. Until then, I'd rather admit I haven't seen clearly. Around this ZEC short, are you bullish or bearish? Please give one reason: do you trust the short opening action more, or do you want to wait for price confirmation? #Meta启动350亿美元融资，支持AI基建
Meta's earnings report has ended, but the AI story is far from over.
The company has raised its capital expenditure forecast for 2026 to $135 billion to $145 billion and is building multiple gigawatt-scale superclusters. The future spending commitment has reached the scale of $800 billion. Meanwhile, free cash flow turned negative in Q3 for the first time in over a decade. The advertising business itself still generates considerable operating cash flow, but it is no longer sufficient to cover both the high infrastructure investment and maintain the original financial flexibility, so external financing is necessary.
NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom have expressed subscription intentions totaling up to $5 billion, which seems more like binding the upstream and downstream of the industry chain rather than pure financial investment. Chip suppliers are willing to hold customer stock, which to some extent locks in the certainty of future orders and also indirectly indicates that the capital intensity of AI infrastructure has become so high that multiple parties need to share the risk. From a competitive perspective, Meta's approach is reasonable. Unlike some pure AI labs that rely entirely on external computing power leasing, it tries to control large-scale infrastructure itself while connecting the monetization capability on the product side.
Overall, this is not a question of "whether there is money," but "after spending this money, can sustainable technological and product barriers be formed?" At a stage where capital expenditure has entered the hundreds of billions level and cash flow is under pressure, the market will increasingly focus on marginal returns rather than just scale narratives.Brothers, this liquidation map contains a lot of information, let me break it down for you.
The current price is 80188. Look at the densest liquidation zones on the chart:
Below, from 79185 to 79869, the orange bars (100x leverage) are densely packed. This indicates a large number of people opened high-leverage long positions around 79500, with stop losses set in this area. If the price drops another 300 dollars to 79800, this group will be liquidated in a chain reaction—the more it falls, the more liquidations happen, and the more liquidations, the further it falls.
Above, from 80952 to 81294, there is also a cluster of orange bars, and from 81500 to 82320, yellow bars (50x leverage). These represent stop losses for long positions above; a rebound to this area will trigger short positions to be stopped out.
Looking at the two cumulative lines: the green line (short position liquidation volume) climbs up to 260 million above, while the red line (long position liquidation volume) below has dropped close to zero. What does this mean? Long positions below 80,000 have mostly been liquidated, but new long positions have piled up again near 79,000.
Before Thursday's FOMC, avoid heavy positions around 80,000; those liquidation orders below are the fuel for the market makers.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC IRYS is the most dramatic gainer on today's list — OKEx price at 0.03212, +12.90%, but the 24h volatility is extreme: low at 0.02580, high surged to 0.04021, now it has pulled back from the high.
What's driving this? Don't mistake it for healthy volume growth — this coin just had a big drama last week: on 10/23, a single-day short squeeze surged 580%, then crashed 74% within hours. Essentially, it was a short squeeze liquidation + heavy market control (top 100 addresses hold 99% of the supply), liquidity is so thin that a pull-up sends it flying, a dump crashes it; today's +13% is a dead-cat bounce, not a trend start.
My judgment: 12.6 million 24h volume looks big, but compared to its tiny circulating supply, it's just inflated — this market is a fierce battle of funds, chasing the rally is like betting against market makers, with a thin order book that's easy to pump and dump. I watch but don't touch.
Watch the signals: whether 0.04 (24h high) can be reclaimed; failure means the rebound is over; breaking below 0.0258 (24h low) means a second bottom test; this coin's volatility is measured by the hour, so position management is far more important than directional calls.
#IRYS #ShortSqueeze #HighRisk
Not investment advice, DYORHalf-year loss of $80.7 billion but still planning to go public?
Anthropic publicly filed for IPO on 10/26, Nasdaq ticker ANT.
Foreign media reports the listing could happen as early as the week of 11/16,
raising up to $100 billion,
potentially becoming the largest IPO in history.
Revenue growth is astonishing: $16.3 billion in the first half of the year, and $16.8 billion in Q3 alone. But it also lost $80.7 billion in the first half, of which about $72 billion is an accounting paper loss,
not actual cash spent.
The prospectus itself states risks: computing power bills can easily reach hundreds of billions of dollars, revenue growth "may not be sustainable," no plans to pay dividends, and the 7 founders hold 50.1% voting rights, so stock buyers cannot influence company decisions.
A reminder: before and after popular IPOs, there will definitely be fake "pre-sale shares" being sold; block them immediately if you see any.【Over 8,000 ETH rushed into exchanges, ancient whales are starting to move】
Two new transfers totaling about 5,069 $ETH, worth $11.69 million; plus nearly 3,000 ETH transferred by ICO whales in the past 24 hours, involving about 8,069 ETH and $18.6 million. Ancient whales also moved over $100 million in stablecoins to exchanges, market makers, and OTC institutions, but the purpose remains unclear.
This represents new potential selling pressure, but don't equate transfers into exchanges directly with selling. Especially since ICO whales' cost basis is only $0.31, their paper gains are huge, so selling intent may exist; however, the transfers alone cannot prove that all these ETH have been sold. On the other hand, on October 23, Santiment recorded a net outflow of about 169,800 ETH from exchanges in a single day, indicating that market capital flow is not just about selling.
My judgment is: short-term supply pressure is increasing, but it’s not yet at the level to conclude that whales are collectively dumping. Next, watch two things: whether these ETH continue to flow out from exchanges to actual sales, and whether trading volume expands when ETH price falls. If deposits keep increasing and the price breaks key support levels, then selling pressure is truly realized; otherwise, this is more of a warning than a result at present.$BTC short-term holders' unrealized profits are declining; will the $76,000 cost line be breached?
Currently, the average cost for BTC short-term holders with holding periods under 6 months is about $76,000. If the price continues to fall, they may turn from profit to loss.
I judge that the likelihood of the short-term $76,000 cost line being effectively broken is low; BTC is more likely to fluctuate around $80,000.
My basis:
1. The current price is about $79.8k, still about 5% above $76k, with multiple supports above including ETF/Treasury cost ($81–81.5k) and True Market Mean (about $77.5–78k). Breaking below would require continuous volume increase.
2. Although unrealized profits have narrowed to 5.9%, the overall profitable state has not been broken since mid-August. History shows that after a brief pullback, prices often recover rather than immediately turning into overall unrealized losses.
3. Continuous new buying pushing up costs indicates demand exists; the Fed is very likely to maintain rates this week, and the macro environment lacks strong downward catalysts, so the market tends to digest and then move sideways.
4. Around $80k has been tested multiple times forming short-term equilibrium; after volatility compression, it is easier to first fluctuate rather than break unilaterally.
Trading advice: sell high and buy low near $80,000.
Lightly buy on a pullback to $79.5k, reduce positions on a rebound to $81–81.5k; if it breaks above $81.5k, target $82k; if it falls below $79k, wait and see.
Keep position control within 30%, wait for clear signals after this week's Fed and PCE announcements before increasing exposure. #ThisWeekOctoberFOMCRateDecision $ETH broke below 2300 just yesterday, but quietly climbed back today. Do you think this counts as stabilization?
It's currently at 2314, up less than 1% in 24 hours, with a very narrow range from 2293 to 2338 — just a 45-dollar swing in a day. The trading volume is about 30% higher than yesterday, but the price hasn't moved much. Honestly, with this kind of volume increase without a price rise, I can't really see a clear direction.
It's still down 3% for the week and nearly 14% for the month, so I won't change my view just because it reclaimed 2300 today. The high today is 2338, and above that, yesterday's moving averages at 2367 and 2480 are still pressing down. On the news front, BitMine bought over 10,000 ETH, but reports on the same day say it prefers to buy back its own stock rather than continue buying coins, and the next upgrade has been delayed due to security issues.
Today, I'm focusing on one thing: whether it can close above 2300. If it holds, I'll consider it bottoming out; if not, we'll look at the 2100 area next. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ $ETH Observation: Behind the deep V, on-chain leverage has reached its limit
Looking at the 15-minute chart, ETH pulled back from a deep pit at 2281 to 2354, and the deep V pattern is indeed intimidating. But strong market performance does not mean the risk is gone.
The key signal is on-chain: Aave has lowered the USDT borrowing rate in Ethereum's core market to 92%. This means that during the sharp decline, the demand for borrowing U to cover margin and short selling has pushed the rate to an extreme, forcing the protocol to adjust parameters to prevent loss of control. This is direct evidence of extremely tight leverage and liquidity pressure.
Although the market has recovered some ground, volume continues to shrink. Before the FOMC and midterm election tests, this kind of spike looks more like a main force shakeout. On-chain lending pressure remains unresolved, and the overall environment lacks fresh liquidity; high leverage should not be stubbornly held.
Preserve your strength and wait for the macro uncertainties to settle before fighting again. Personal record, not investment advice. $ETH "ETH Deleveraging in Progress: Altcoins Under Pressure, Recovery Window in Focus 📉"
Over the past three weeks, altcoins have generally weakened, with Ethereum simultaneously pulling back about 15%, wiping out approximately $54 billion in market cap😮. The cooling is even more pronounced in derivatives: Binance's ETH open interest contracts shrank by $1.3 billion in one month, a nearly 20% drop, leaving only $5.7 billion; the total ETH open interest across the network fell to $11.5 billion📊.
Darkfost believes this round of deleveraging is not due to a single factor: price declines triggered a chain of liquidations, some traders proactively reduced positions to hedge, collectively lowering leverage levels🧹. However, history is not entirely pessimistic—ETH experienced an even sharper contraction in open interest contracts in July this year, after which the market gradually stabilized and staged a rebound of over 32%, with prices briefly surging past $2800🚀.
The key now is not short-term volatility but whether a new support can form after deleveraging. If selling pressure eases and risk appetite recovers, ETH and altcoins may enter a recovery window; but if liquidations continue, the weak trend may persist🔍.[A $68 million bet on BTC surging to $90K, insider or gambler?]
A wallet bought 800 call options on Derive expiring November 6 with a strike price of $90,000 for $BTC, with a notional value of about $68 million, making it the platform's largest open position. But this trade is not a simple all-in bullish bet: the trader also sold call options with other expirations, netting about $940,000, indicating a time-differentiated combination strategy.
Market bets are also heating up, with the implied probability of BTC breaking $100,000 before Christmas rising from 9.7% to 12%. However, 12% still means this is not the mainstream expectation. After BTC failed to break $85,000 last week and retreated to around $80,000, spot selling pressure has increased, contract open interest remains high, and longs are still paying relatively high funding rates.
Currently, the $85,000 to $87,500 range is a pressure zone that needs to be overcome first, and there is still some distance to $90,000. The mid-November elections may serve as a short-term catalyst, but the end of the elections does not automatically mean funds will flow in. This large order shows someone is willing to bet on a rebound, but it does not mean the market has turned bullish. Only if spot buying follows and the price volume breaks back above the pressure zone will it look like a real counterattack; otherwise, the $68 million notional position, no matter how eye-catching, is just a big player's script.📊 300 MILLION STABLECOIN WALLETS: WHY DOES EVM HOLD 94% OF THE MARKET SHARE? 🔹 Network Effect: The EVM standard dominates thanks to its high compatibility, familiar wallet infrastructure, and already developed DeFi ecosystem. 🔹 L2 Solves the Cost Problem: The fact that 75% of ETH wallets are on L2 proves that low-fee chains are the top choice for mass users. 🔹 Future of 1 Billion Wallets: The demand for real-world payments, inflation hedging, and tokenized stock trading will be the main grow#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Bitmine bought another 10,000 ETH, is Tom Lee running out of bullets?
Tom Lee's Bitmine purchased another 10,452 ETH last week, bringing the total holdings to 6.05 million ETH, accounting for 4.95% of Ethereum's circulating supply. It's just 58,000 ETH short of the long-anticipated "5% target."
But there's a detail to watch: the buying pace is slowing down. The week of October 4th saw 15,112 ETH bought, the week of October 19th 12,535 ETH, and last week only 10,452 ETH. The ammunition is decreasing—not because they don't want to buy, but because they're nearing the ceiling. Bitmine itself has said that 5% is the cap, and they'll stop once they reach it.
Looking at the market: ETH is currently priced at $2,329, up 0.59% in 24 hours, but down 4.9% over 7 days and 13% over a month. BMNR stock closed last night at 20.95, down 6.47%, with an intraday low of 20.93. ETH hasn't crashed, but BMNR took the hit first. The market is pricing in one thing: once Bitmine stops buying, who will take over?
My judgment is simple: this purchase of over 10,000 ETH by Tom Lee is "inertia buying," not "accelerated bottom-fishing." The 5% target is within reach, and subsequent buying will marginally decrease—this is clear.
In the short term, ETH is supported by the narrative of enterprise hoarding like MicroStrategy, but BMNR's decline is telling you that smart money is already exiting early. Will there be a catch-up rally? That depends on whether a second Tom Lee steps up. 💻 I'll break down this message according to my code review habits. The input is: alternative.me's Fear & Greed Index today is 48, down 2 from 50 the previous day, still neutral; meanwhile, $BTC is reported at $79,994, up 0.35% in 24 hours. My judgment: this slight sentiment drop is not enough to support a "market turning bearish" claim.
Logically, the index ranges from 0 to 100, with lower values indicating more fear, but 48 is still within the neutral range. A decrease in value and a state change are two different things; seeing a minus sign alone shouldn't trigger an alarm. Also, a slight price increase and a slight sentiment decrease at least show these two readings are not synchronized; using one to conclude the other can easily cause bugs.
The potential problem is treating a single-day snapshot as a trend. Based on this data alone, we don't know if the sentiment drop will continue, nor can we confirm where the price will go next. For ordinary users, I think the biggest impact might be the psychological suggestion from the headline: seeing "decrease" automatically triggers an assumption of increased risk.
If it were me, I would change the observation logic to: continue monitoring if subsequent readings keep declining, then compare with price performance to avoid making judgments based on a single data point. Please help me review: with 48 down from 50, would you consider it normal fluctuation or a signal to be more alert? What key condition did my logic miss?Anthropic files for IPO, is AI trading alive again?
Last night US AI stocks broadly rose, today Korean stocks follow suit—SK Hynix surged over 7% at one point, Samsung up more than 5%. But can it last? It's still too early to call a main uptrend; a few earnings reports are needed for confirmation.
🔥 The rebound logic holds
The most valuable aspect this time is that it fills the financing expectations gap, easing market worries about "financing difficulties." With Anthropic pushing for an IPO, the market re-evaluates how much money it can raise in the future and how long it can sustain its investments.
Smooth financing → stronger cloud customers' payment ability → guaranteed computing power procurement → expectations spread to Korean memory manufacturers. The chain is connected.
⚠️ But two points cannot be ignored
Filing an application ≠ funds received; financing ≠ profitability. Financing only extends the timeline; customer payments and profit improvements are needed to prove the investments are worthwhile.
SK Hynix and Samsung's big gains essentially reflect the market lowering concerns about future orders, but to turn this into a sustained trend, earnings reports must be watched:
SK Hynix: HBM orders, deliveries, prices, and how much cash remains after expansion
Samsung: product competitiveness + whether business structure can improve
Both are memory leaders but have completely different profit paths; they cannot be lumped together.
🎯 Focus on three things
① Whether cloud vendors' investments and returns match—just raising capital expenditure is no longer convincing; cloud revenue, orders, and cash returns must grow simultaneously.
② Memory manufacturers' orders and profit guidance—today's rapid rise means market expectations for earnings reports have been raised in advance.
③ Whether oil prices and interest rates cooperate—the sector's valuation is still constrained by funding costs. This time I went all in with XP $GOOGL earnings exceeded expectations!🧐
Breaking it down, Google's core business mainly consists of three parts:
First is the cloud business, with a Q3 forecast of $29 billion. The cloud business exceeding expectations is basically a done deal, and in October, they signed a computing power cooperation contract with OpenAI worth a total of $22.4 billion. Also, in June, they signed a $30 billion computing power order with SpaceX. Combined with the Gemini series and their own TPU chip shipments, overall, this segment is relatively stable. The latest data📊 shows that Google's cloud backlog currently reaches $513.9 billion, with explosive future fulfillment demand!
Second is the search advertising business, which grew 17% in Q2. With AI features increasing search queries and using AI to improve ad matching, this segment's exceeding growth is also quite certain✅, as referenced by Meta's recent earnings report.
Third is YouTube and streaming ecosystem monetization, including YouTube ads + subscriptions, and the rapidly growing Shorts short video commercialization, which has also become a stable cash flow source!
Another point is the latest Bank of America forecast that Google's Q3 depreciation and amortization is about $8 billion, lower than the market expectation of $8.9 billion. Just this alone can greatly improve Google's profit performance!
Let's wait and see!🤔 The market isn't great right now, so participate more in OKX events to share $250,000 in event rewards. Come join me quickly🔥 $BEAT overall trend is downward. With so many retail investors bottom-fishing, the manipulative whales probably won't give an opportunity. Continue holding.
Long-short ratio: Retail investors bottom-fishing
Retail side: Binance retail accounts long-short ratio is 3.207, OKX retail accounts long-short ratio is as high as 3.55.
Whale side: Number of whales long-short ratio is 3.5935 (very bullish), but whale position long-short ratio sharply dropped to 1.7038.
On-chain core signals:
Lock-up and control: Arkham ranks high on the holding list, TreasuryUpgradeableProxy alone holds 30.81%, multiple Gnosis Safe multisig vaults collectively control over 50%. This means the real circulating supply is extremely thin, and the price is very easy to manipulate.
Deflation narrative: HTX data shows that from October 19 to 26, about 1.245 million BEAT were burned, generating about $82,800 in revenue. The cumulative burn has exceeded 31.32 million tokens. This is indeed a continuous deflation mechanism, but weekly revenue of $82,000 is limited in support relative to its market cap.
At 9:00 on November 1, about 17.64 million BEAT tokens will be unlocked, valued at about $1.19 million.
This is currently the biggest certain bearish factor on the market. Against the backdrop of net outflow of contract funds and whales quietly reducing positions, the selling pressure from this unlocked supply is very likely to be the last straw that breaks this rebound.
$BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The Ethereum Foundation has been caught on-chain again. A wallet associated with the Foundation sold 2,785 ETH in the past hour at an average price of $2,304, receiving $6.42 million.
This is not the first time. The last time the Foundation was suspected of selling was two weeks ago, after which ETH dropped 9%.
Many people's first reaction is to criticize. But from another perspective, the Foundation holds hundreds of thousands of ETH; it has to pay salaries, issue grants, and support dozens of client teams. These expenses are denominated in dollars, and in a bear market, if they don't sell coins, they have to lay off staff.
The real problem is the timing. Every time they act, it's just as the market starts to improve, selling millions of dollars worth at once. The spot market is thin, so prices react immediately. Retail investors see this as the official side giving up.
So my view is simple: the Foundation selling coins is not a bearish signal, but a long-term background noise. They could sell every quarter; you can't run away every time.
What you should watch is not whether they sell, but what they do with the money afterward. If the money goes into development and ecosystem funds, it means the assets are still growing; if it's just to cover operational gaps, then Ethereum's business model still hasn't been proven.
In the short term, there are people trapped above the 2300 level, so pushing higher will be a bit tough. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#anthropic rolling 12-month revenue growth about 1200% Korean, Hong Kong, and A-shares intraday quick review (October 27), US semiconductor stocks surged, where is the money flowing out from, and where is it attacking?
Last night, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.82%, ARM up 6%, Intel up 4%. Logically, the Asian chip chain should have followed with some gains today, but looking at the market, the money didn't flow here at all.
Korean stocks are the craziest.
KOSPI surged more than 4% today, SK Hynix soared 6.8%, Samsung up 5%. But this rally is a catch-up from last night's US stock sentiment; yesterday Korean stocks were still being pressed down by foreign capital due to AI investment burdens and oil prices. Today's move is short covering, not new money entering.
On the Hong Kong stock side, northbound funds have net outflow for 9 consecutive days, today another HKD 2.08 billion ran out. Alibaba was sold off by 600 million, CNOOC 500 million, SMIC 310 million. Where did the money go? Zhipu absorbed 430 million, Baidu 270 million, UBTech 140 million. Translation: Big stocks are being drained, AI applications and small robots are receiving.
A-shares are the most honest. The three major indexes turned red, with over 2,900 stocks down. Main funds systematically withdrew from AI hardware: components lost 6.6 billion, semiconductors 4.8 billion, communication equipment 4.5 billion, totaling 16 billion.
The US semiconductor surge is someone else's party; what is really happening in the Asian market today is—pulling money out of AI hardware and moving it towards robots, AI applications, and defensive sectors.The macro environment determines how expensive capital is, while the tax system affects where capital is willing to stay. Regarding the news from the Netherlands, I am more concerned about the tax burden differences between various assets rather than the "sell-off wave" mentioned in the headline.
According to Bloomberg, the Netherlands plans to vote on a related proposal in November: financial assets such as stocks, bonds, and options will be subject to capital gains tax upon sale starting in 2028, while cryptocurrencies, gold, and foreign exchange may still be taxed annually on unrealized gains at least until 2030. The local crypto industry organization has warned that this arrangement could trigger a sell-off.
My judgment is that this is somewhat negative for the attractiveness of local crypto asset allocation but cannot be directly interpreted as bearish for the global market. My speculation is that if other conditions are similar and stocks can defer tax payment until sale, then crypto assets will need to offer higher expected returns to compensate for the cash outflow during holding. If the financing environment is also tight, this difference may have a greater impact on capital choices.
Another layer of impact is the allocation horizon: annual taxes may make long-term holders pay more attention to cash reserves, but this does not mean everyone will sell their coins. The policy in the Netherlands alone is not enough to indicate the direction of global capital. I will continue to watch whether the proposal retains this differential treatment and will not rush to treat the industry's risk warnings as an already occurring sell pressure.The foldable phone that started shipping over the weekend already has hinge cracks on the inner screen and even shows bright lines. Starting at about 1999, the foldable phone closed Monday around 343.9, down about 1.1%. $AAPL's official statement that this is a "minor cracking" issue—I don't buy it.
On Monday, Apple admitted to CNBC that a "minority" of iPhone Duo inner screens have problems and advised contacting AppleCare for a replacement.
Out-of-warranty screen replacement is listed on the official site at about $999.
iFixit teardown suggests the hinge shape easily pushes against the screen; tolerances or dust particles can ruin the panel.
The market opened around 343.9, peaked near 347.1, dipped to about 341, and closed around 343.9, down about 1.1% from Friday's approximately 347.7.
I acknowledge some people queued for the foldable phone, but this screen issue from the first weekend is a debt I think is still unsettled—around 344, the defect seems priced in, so I'll keep an eye on this price.
First, watch for support between about 341–344, and a rebound above about 347; if the daily close breaks below about 341, expect a drop toward 339–330.
Next Wednesday after the US market closes (around early morning 11/3 Beijing time) is the earnings report. Should this hardware controversy continue to weigh on valuation?
Are you more concerned about the "replacement" policy or the out-of-warranty $999 repair price tag?
$AAPL
#Today'sMarketTalk 🔍Why does the tax system take two different paths for the same type of asset? The Netherlands plans to vote in November: under the current proposal, capital gains tax will be levied on the sale of stocks, bonds, and option plans starting in 2028, while cryptocurrencies, gold, and foreign exchange may continue to be taxed annually on unrealized gains at least until 2030.
Don't rush to conclusions. The "sell-off wave" is a warning from industry organizations, not a fact that has already occurred. I think what's more important than this warning is the tax difference: taxes may be due even without selling, which increases cash flow pressure; for other assets, if taxes can be deferred until sale, crypto holdings bear an additional relative burden.
An interesting detail here: the warning also comes from stakeholders. This is my speculation—if the risk of sell-off is continuously emphasized before the vote, there may also be lobbying motives to seek equal treatment. I will watch whether the final text adjusts the classification of crypto assets and will not take the warning as evidence of capital flight prematurely.To start with a cold splash of water, I do not agree with interpreting the Dutch tax reform as an outright negative for the entire market, and I am more concerned about the attractiveness of allocating crypto assets locally. The Netherlands plans to vote in November: stocks, bonds, and options are proposed to be taxed upon sale starting in 2028, while cryptocurrencies, gold, and foreign exchange may still be taxed annually on unrealized gains at least until 2030.
I have two reasons: if the tax difference is implemented, holding crypto assets would require preparing cash for taxes on unrealized gains, which is more disadvantageous compared to assets taxed only upon sale; but since the proposal has not been finalized, and the industry's warnings are not based on capital outflow data, jumping from local tax burdens to a market-wide sell-off is a leap too far.
Of course, the industry's concerns might be valid. If the rules pass as proposed and there is sustained evidence of local sell-offs, I will raise my assessment of selling pressure. For now, I am watching whether the tax difference will be maintained and will not substitute the word "sell-off wave" for evidence.#October FOMC Rate Decision to Be Announced This Week
The FOMC is very likely to hold rates steady this week, keeping them at 3.75%-4.00%, with over an 85% probability. There was some volatility before the announcement, but don’t get too excited yet— inflation remains high, the statement is expected to be hawkish, and Powell might hint at a rate hike in December.
$BTC has been oscillating around $79,000 these past few days, testing this level for the third time. ETFs are still seeing outflows. Wintermute says the FOMC will likely decide the direction; if $79,000 doesn’t hold, the next support is around $76,000. $ETH is weaker, down five days in a row, hovering near 2320, with 2300-2280 as a critical support zone.
In short, the decision itself is no surprise; the key is the tone after the announcement. If it’s hawkish, both $BTC and $ETH will likely shake.350亿美元，足够吸引眼球。但Meta这次融资真正值得问的是：钱什么时候到，股东要为此让出多少权益，AI又要多赚多少才能覆盖这笔投入？ Meta在10月26日公告中启动约350亿美元的两项发行：约225亿美元A类普通股，配合远期出售协议；约125亿美元代表强制可转换优先股权益的存托股份。这不是一笔普通银行借款。 到账时间尤其容易被忽略。公告明确，公司起初预计不会从远期购买方出售普通股中收到资金，而是在未来结算远期协议时取得相应款项。因此，不能把“启动350亿美元发行”写成350亿美元已经全部进了公司账户。 计划里还有约600亿美元的未来按市价发行项目。但它尚未签订相关协议，具体时间、规模和条款仍未确定，并预计不早于2027年一季度启动。把两部分相加，可以讨论约950亿美元融资规划，不能报道成已完成募资。 扩张的支出也很大：公司预计2026年资本开支为1350亿至1450亿美元，并披露前三季度经营现金流970亿美元。前者是全年预期，后者是九个月实际值，不能简单相减，冒充全年现金缺口。 我的判断：股权融资能增加资金来源，也带来潜在稀释。判断这笔钱值不值，最终要看新增投入能否带来足够的盈利和AI’S MEMORY BOOM FACES A REALITY CHECK.
SK hynix reports Q3 earnings on October 28.
Analysts expect nearly ₩77 trillion in operating profit and margins above 78%.
But the headline isn’t the real test.
Can HBM4 shipments scale fast enough to justify those expectations as Samsung intensifies competition?
For AI markets, tomorrow’s guidance on production, pricing and demand may matter more than record profits.
#AI
#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings Anthropic走到了公开递交IPO文件这一步，但“申请上市”和“已经确定上市价格”，中间还有很长一段路。热榜里的估值纪录，现在还不能当成落定的结果。 10月26日递交至美国SEC的S-1文件写明，公司申请在纳斯达克全球精选市场挂牌，拟使用代码ANT。文件仍是初步招股书，发行数量和发行价格区间保留空白，并明确说明，信息不完整、可能修改，注册声明生效前不能出售所述证券。 我更关注文件里另一句：这次拟议发行既包含公司出售股份，也包含售股股东出售股份；公司不会从后者的出售中获得资金。也就是说，未来即使看到一个很大的IPO总规模，也要继续拆开：多少进入公司账户，多少属于原有股东出售。 这会影响我们理解融资的意义。公司拿到的新资金，可以支持后续经营投入；老股出售主要改变股份持有人。两者都属于发行的一部分，却不能全部算成新增的AI研发或算力预算。 我的判断：现在讨论“会不会创纪录”，不如先等能计算的条件。发行价、发行后股数、新股与老股比例、公司净募资额，缺一项，都可能改变对交易的理解。估值越高，也越需要经营增长兑现，而不是只比较谁的数字更大。 后续若修订文件补齐价格区间和发行结构，再结合经营表现客户把钱存进平台，和平台把利润赚到手，中间还有一段距离。Robinhood这次财报，我更想看这段距离有没有缩短。 公司投资者关系页面列出的第三季度电话会时间，是美东10月27日17点，对应北京时间10月28日凌晨5点。这篇先按财报前瞻讨论，不能把尚未核对的季度成绩提前写出来。 已核对的8月运营数据里，净存入资金为40亿美元，过去12个月累计741亿美元。资金进入平台，有助于扩大业务基础，但净存入不是营业收入；统计范围还包含并购业务及部分托管账户的贡献，不能全部当作原有业务自然增长。 交易数据也不是整齐向上。8月股票交易金额同比增长68%；期权合约数同比增长50%，环比却下降10%；加密交易金额175亿美元，环比增长61%，同比下降38%。同一业务，选不同的比较基准，就会讲出完全不同的故事。 而且，175亿美元里，Robinhood App占74亿美元，Bitstamp占101亿美元。两部分的客户结构、收费方式可能不同，不能把合计交易量直接乘上一个固定费率，就算作公司收入。以上均为8月初步、未经审计的运营数据，不能代替完整三季度业绩。 我的判断：增长能否延续，要看客户资金是否留下、交易最Brother Sun added another $20.32 million $PEPE?! Since 10.17, a total of $48.76 million has been transferred out 🐸
10 hours ago, the address 0x721…E5991, marked by Arkham as associated with Sun Yuchen, withdrew 4.65 trillion PEPE; currently Brother Sun holds a total of 11.8 trillion $PEPE, with an average withdrawal price of $0.000004114. Despite market fluctuations, there is still an unrealized profit of $2.085 million, but it is unclear whether this is Brother Sun's personal wallet or exchange-related funds.
Wallet address /0x72132bF09a9ee6517F3f1d997b4b3cd2115E5991The 28th will be exciting, with the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, but I don't think they will raise rates this time, especially since the election is on November 4th. There's no need to raise rates again before the election. Currently, employment and the economy are holding up. The inflation caused by oil is a bit high, but you gain some and lose some. The growth rate of U.S. oil exports is somewhat exaggerated. Inflation is inflation, but money is being made. Now even Middle Eastern and European oil has to be booked years in advance.
Recently, there have been a huge number of short positions. Then it's time for Microsoft, Google, and Amazon earnings reports. If there's any issue, tech will immediately crash on you. At this point, if their capital growth meets expectations and earnings are a bit better, shorts will be aggressively targeted.
I still believe the real risk lies after the midterm elections. The big downturn hasn't come yet; keep watching when the last two upward trends start to weaken. That will be the total collapse.
#AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？ 看到中东原油运输恢复，第一反应往往是：供应回来了，油价该降了吧？但恢复出口量，还没有回答炼厂要花多少钱才能把油运到手。 10月26日，Discovery Alert的一篇油市分析援引花旗数据称，9月海湾原油流量，不含伊朗，已恢复至战前水平的81%以上。这里说的是特定范围的运输恢复程度，不能扩大成整个中东已经完全恢复正常。 同一报道指出，每天超过100万桶原油通过船对船转运完成运输。转运能让货继续走，却也增加作业环节、占用船舶时间。即使出口桶数恢复，完成同样的运输量，也可能需要更多船和更长时间。 这就解释了一个容易忽略的矛盾：油在流动，物流效率却可能仍没恢复。该报道提到的海湾至中国超大型油轮运费约为每桶35美元，是特定航线的费用口径，不能当作全球平均，更不能直接加在任何一桶原油报价上。 我的判断：运输恢复可以缓解供应紧张，但要判断这部分成本压力是否消退，还得看航程与转运是否减少、运费与保险成本是否回落。出口量只是其中一项指标。 当然，高成本也不保证油价上涨。若航线逐步正常化，同时终端需求转弱，原来的风险溢价就可能被压下来。后续如果出口继续恢复，相关航线运费也持续下降，我会撤回对物流成本仍THE RISK MAP HAS A CRYPTO CORNER.
Moody’s Analytics’ latest matrix examines 27 potential shocks over 12–18 months. A crypto crash ranks among the more likely risks, but its estimated damage to the wider economy is comparatively limited.
No crash probability. No price target. Just a reminder that liquidity matters more than headlines ahead of the Fed's Oct. 28 decision.
Read risk maps as warnings, not trading signals.
#Macro #CryptoTreasuryDivides The market is so quiet it's a bit stifling. BTC is repeatedly testing around 800, with resistance between 805 and 808, and 800 acting like a reluctant defensive line. This "neither dead nor alive" state is more exhausting than a one-sided market, isn't it? I've been watching this sideways movement for a long time, and my biggest impression isn't about direction but about rhythm. The Nasdaq pulled back a bit pre-market, but with the FOMC on the 28th right ahead, it's unlikely we'll see a strong recovery before the results. Reaching 293xx to 295xx would already be respectable. What really makes trading difficult is what comes next: a high probability of a spike on the 28th, followed by the November 3rd midterm elections, after which the market pace will noticeably accelerate over the next two weeks. Those who didn't accumulate chips at previous lows or highs are better off focusing on intraday and short-term swings, rather than stubbornly trying to change the structure, or else profits that aren't secured will become a daily drama 😂. This is also the risk management angle I want to discuss: now it's not about who predicts better, but who thinks through their position size and stop losses before volatility expands. On the bullish side, the 800 support still holds, and the Nasdaq's pre-market recovery willingness shows risk appetite hasn't completely died out. Once the FOMC is settled and election uncertainties start to be digested, BTC has a chance to lead a sentiment rebound, with ETH and altcoins following. On the bearish side, until the 805 to 808 resistance is broken, any rebound can only be considered a recovery. Chasing highs during spike moves is the easiest way to get slapped down, with leverage and dense stop-loss zones being repeatedly swept. XAU is showing a similar pattern here.Will SanDisk's earnings report this quarter exceed expectations?
My judgment is: the probability that the performance figures will exceed the market consensus is relatively high, but it is not highly probable that the stock price will continue to rise after the earnings report.
There are three main factors supporting the positive performance:
NAND is still in a seller's market, with tight supply and product price increases continuing to support revenue and gross margin;
The company’s revenue, gross margin, and free cash flow all improved significantly last quarter, and operating leverage is still being released;
Data center and enterprise storage demand is strong, and AI-related high-capacity products remain the main growth drivers.
But the risks are also clear. SanDisk’s stock price has already risen significantly, and the market has priced in strong profit expectations in advance. For this type of cyclical stock, what truly determines post-earnings performance is often not "whether last quarter exceeded expectations," but rather:
Whether revenue and profit guidance for the next quarter will continue to be revised upward;
Whether the NAND price increase is starting to slow down;
Whether the non-GAAP gross margin has peaked;
Whether long-term supply agreements can improve revenue visibility;
Whether the data center business can continue to maintain rapid growth.
SanDisk is very likely to deliver an earnings report that exceeds market expectations, but the stock price performance may be "earnings beat but no stock price increase," or it may be a "slight beat with stock price adjustment."
From an investment perspective, it is not advisable to bet solely on a single quarter’s performance; it is more worthwhile to track management’s latest judgment on next quarter’s guidance, NAND price trends, and supply-demand dynamics. #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ $SNDK $ETH
A bunch of people are laughing that Maji is about to blow up again, the liquidation king. I just casually checked the on-chain data, and this time it's really precarious: the 25x long position only has 68 ETH left, opened at 2313.9, liquidation price 2290.6, with just over 4,000 USDT in the account as margin. Right now ETH is at 2318, just one step away from liquidation, $28 difference.
At the same time, on-chain monitoring shows that the old OG who entered at $0.31 sold another 1500 ETH in the past 8 hours, and an ancient giant whale moved 3000 ETH to exchanges. Some are stubbornly holding on at the liquidation line, while others are offloading.
Everyone is watching to see when he will blow up, but I think this position itself isn't that important; his position size can't make waves. But someone who lost tens of millions down to a few thousand USDT and still dares to open 25x leverage is the truest thermometer of this round of sentiment. When he stops opening positions, it might be more useful than any indicator.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 AI内存的故事很热，但海力士明天交卷，订单之外还有三道题：货交了吗，利润留下了吗，现金收回来了吗？ 公司10月21日的官方邀请函确认，第三季度业绩将在10月28日韩国时间上午9点前公布，电话会在9点开始，对应北京时间上午8点。截至这篇财报前瞻查证时，不能把市场预测当成已经披露的成绩。 这次围绕HBM4，我先看产品进度。客户认证、量产、实际出货、收入确认，是不同环节。即使管理层谈到订单充足，也要追问交付时间，以及有多少已经进入当季收入。没有单独披露的地方，就保留未知，不能自行算出HBM4贡献了多少利润。 第二看利润质量。高端产品卖得更多，可能改善产品组合；但爬坡成本、良率和新增设备折旧也会影响盈利。因此，收入增长与营业利润率需要一起看。即使整体利润变好，也要分辨是否来自传统内存价格，而非全部归功于HBM4。 第三看现金。经营现金流增加了多少，资本开支又吃掉多少？账面利润增长，如果伴随更重的库存、应收账款或扩产支出，股东能拿到的现金未必同步变厚。 我的判断：这份财报最有价值的，是补齐“订单—交付—利润—现金”的证据。若公司只给出需求乐观表态，缺少可核对的交付与盈利信息，我不会据此上调对HB$BTC's latest round of decline occurred after attempting to rebound near $85,000. The report on October 26 showed Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume was approximately $17.55 billion and noted that Bitcoin's price once dropped to $79,332. These figures are rolling data and will change over time. Please do not confuse them with subsequent exchange quotes or treat them as closing prices.
This decline happened after three consecutive trading days of inflows and two trading days of outflows in the US stock spot ETF. Farside Investors' daily trading table showed inflows of $526.7 million on October 19, $23.2 million on October 20, and $524.8 million on October 21. Outflows were $635.6 million and $137.9 million on October 22 and 23, respectively, totaling $773.5 million in outflows. Summing the five inflows results in a net inflow of $301.2 million. Upon verification, Farside had an issuer entry missing on October 23, so the displayed total is still subject to adjustment.
Therefore, even with two consecutive days of decline, it does not necessarily mean the week will end with a net outflow. Funds ultimately still rose, but demand reversed on the day, and Bitcoin failed to hold the high level. Previous reports on three days of inflows had already indicated the market pulled back after approaching $85,000. New ETF funds alone cannot sustain Bitcoin at that price level. ⚠️⚠️⚠️
Brothers, the FOMC meeting is happening today and tomorrow, with the decision announced at 2 AM Thursday and Powell's press conference at 2:30 AM. Let me highlight the key points for you:
First, there's a 90% chance of no rate hike, which is already priced in, so no hike isn't really a positive surprise.
Second, the focus is on his stance for December. CME currently shows a 69% chance of a rate hike in December; if he even hints "December not ruled out," Bitcoin will drop to a lower level immediately.
Third, Brent crude is still above 110, the 10-year US Treasury yield is over 5%, inflation can't be contained, so Powell has no reason to be dovish.
I think the most likely scenario is: no rate hike but hawkish tone, Bitcoin will first drop sharply then rebound. Don't bet on direction early; wait until it's confirmed before making moves. Reduce positions to the minimum before Wednesday.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ A recent signal worth noting: long liquidations are clearly more than shorts, and the funding rate is still positive, indicating that those chasing longs are still paying, but the price can't rise. This kind of structure tends to first trigger a wave of long liquidations before any rebound. Volatility has also been squeezed from about 13% down to around 6%, tightening more and more, so the breakout will happen quickly. Therefore, I now calculate stop losses and position sizes for every trade in advance, exiting with a 1%-2% loss per trade, not holding losing positions. Staying alive is more important than guessing right once.
This is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
#TradingInsights #RiskManagement First consider the worst-case scenario: if this incoming transfer is gradually liquidated, short-term absorption might be tight. According to monitoring, an early address that subscribed to 100,000 ETH in 2015 transferred 3,000 ETH to exchanges in the past 24 hours, still holding 47,000 ETH on-chain.
⚠️ I tend to be cautious but do not equate the transfer directly with a dump: whether it has been traded is still unclear, and how the remaining holdings will be handled is also unknown. Ordinary people should not treat whale movements as trading signals; first, list how much loss you can bear per trade; I will continue to watch for actual trading evidence.【Market Real-Time Quotes】$BTC is consolidating narrowly around $80,000, $ETH slightly down near $2,317, with mainstream coins remaining cautious ahead of the macro window. Meanwhile, the atmosphere in the AI Agent sector is a completely different scene. 👇 Let's first put these two parallel lines together today: 📌 Ant Lingguang 2.0: Released on October 27, the core upgrades include cross-session memory, long-term task scheduling, and tool connectivity. Relying on an independent cloud host, the AI continues running after the user exits the conversation, proactively identifying needs, initiating monitoring, and reminding at key nodes. It has integrated Alipay bills, membership, travel, as well as DingTalk, Feishu, email, Mijia, and other service capabilities, extending management to cross-platform workflows and smart home control. 📉 On-chain AI Agent tokens: The total market cap has dropped from the peak of $15.7 billion in January 2025 to about $3.65 billion now, a decline of nearly 80%. Bittensor ($TAO) is at $250.50, down 1.1% in 24h; NEAR at $4.48, down 1.5%; Fetch.ai ($FET) at $0.174, down 0.5%. Putting these two lines together raises a question hard to avoid in the crypto space: If big companies have already made functional Agents into daily infrastructure, what should the premium of on-chain Agent tokens be based on? The answer lies in the gap between "product" and "token." Sparsity Data's research report points out, open sourceTraditional financial giant Franklin Templeton has come up with a new twist: from now on, when you buy its stock ETFs, dividends won't be paid out in cash anymore; instead, the money will be used to buy $BTC for you
They just applied for two new funds with a simple strategy: over 95% of the money still buys U.S. stocks, while about 5% of the portfolio is allocated to buying BTC
Previously, when funds received stock dividends, they would reinvest them in stocks. But for these two funds, as soon as a dividend is paid, the next day the dividend money is directly used to buy BTC on the market
So traditional stock investors don't need to register on crypto exchanges; just hold this stock fund quarterly, and it will automatically "dollar-cost average" $BTC for you using dividends
Industry analysis: the fund is currently small in scale, so the amount of Bitcoin bought with dividends is limited and won't have a significant direct impact on the market
But the important thing is its strong symbolic meaning: it’s like a traditional financial stock account gradually turning into an automatic buying pipeline for the crypto world
#富兰克林邓普顿推出美股股息买BTC新型ETF 2026-10-27:
BTC and ETH both contracted with reduced volume, with the FOMC announcement about 40 hours away. Price changes are minimal, but funding rates have both risen to the 85%+ percentile over 90 days, indicating a clear increase in leverage crowding.
Continuing to wait and watch today, no early directional bets.
Compared to yesterday, the real focus is on derivatives:
BTC: Price −0.33%, funding rate percentile 74.4 → 85.6, OI +1.95%
ETH: Price −0.41%, funding rate percentile 51.5 → 86.7, OI +2.28%
Price down, OI up, high funding rates indicate new leveraged positions are accumulating.
ETH is deteriorating faster.
BTC | Current price around 80,150.
4H Bollinger Band width has compressed to the 10.5% percentile of the past 200 candles, indicating extremely low volatility.
Core range:
79,220 — 80,600
No trading as long as 4H remains within this range.
Break below 79,220: watch 78,400 → 78,000.
Break above 80,600: considered an upward breakout, but current long R:R is insufficient, so temporarily abandoned.
The biggest message from BTC is not direction but that volatility is about to release.
ETH | Weaker
Current price about 2,325, daily EMA200 around 2,319, only +0.24% above.
Meanwhile:
Funding rate percentile 51.5 → 86.7
25d skew 2.47 → 4.12
Retail long-short ratio 3.39
ETH/BTC near recent lows
ETH’s structure, sentiment, and positions are weaker than BTC.
The key level to watch:
Whether the daily closes below 2,319.
If it breaks down effectively, consider:
Entry 2,310
Stop loss 2,352
Targets 2,250 / 2,200
R:R about 2.6
BTC vs ETH:
BTC is closer to a “turning point”;
ETH is closer to a “breakdown.”
If both trigger downward simultaneously, I would prioritize ETH because its daily structure is more cleanly broken.
The biggest upcoming variables:
October 29, 02:00 FOMC
October 29, 02:30 Powell press conference
So today’s strategy remains simple:
No new positions, no predictions, wait for a breakout.
Low volatility + high leverage + FOMC approaching.
A major move may be coming soon, but there is no clear direction yet. $AMZN While consensus revenue of $202.2 billion implies a strong 12.2% YoY growth, the estimated EPS of $1.96 represents an increase of just 0.5% compared to Q3 2025 ($1.95), leaving a huge window for an unexpected margin beat or compression.
#AmazonQ3AWSOutlook The heavy bombshell hanging over the US stock market this week: the Federal Reserve interest rate decision + Powell's press conference, GDP, and core PCE inflation data.
The market is now most looking forward to a rate cut #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
The 2:00 AM rate decision + 2:30 AM press conference:
The rate itself is unlikely to change much this time; the focus is on what Powell says. If he signals that inflation is easing and there is room for rate cuts later, growth stocks like the Nasdaq and storage will be directly lifted by capital; if he continues to speak tough, saying inflation is still volatile and rate cuts will be delayed, high-valuation stocks like $SOXL and $SNDK will immediately come under pressure and sell off.
The 8:30 PM GDP and core PCE:
GDP reflects the economy's heat; if GDP is too strong, the market will interpret it as the economy holding up well, so there is no rush to cut rates;
Core PCE is the Fed's most important inflation indicator! If PCE rises, rate cut expectations cool down immediately, and the US tech sector is prone to plunge; if PCE is 0.2% lower than the previous value, rate cut expectations heat up, giving growth stocks upward momentum.
SK Hynix's earnings report just came out; storage was originally in a tug-of-war for reversal, but whether it can have a big rally depends on the Federal Reserve.
Earnings are the sector's own fundamentals, while the rate decision and inflation data are the macro gatekeepers for the entire market.
Even if SK Hynix's earnings are good, as long as Powell's speech is hawkish, the rebound can easily be interrupted; conversely, as long as this round of inflation data weakens and the Fed signals dovishness, US stocks, semiconductors, and risk assets like BTC will see a resonant rally.In the futures market, even if it's called copper, different grades and delivery locations cannot be mixed for accounting. When I look at computing power contracts, I usually first check the "Delivery Specification" before discussing how large the market can be.
Arthur Hayes proposed in "The Trifecta" to establish a computing power trading market for AI agents through the Flop Network, paid with $FLOP, and to develop forward, futures, and perpetual contracts based on the spot price of computing power. This is a concept and should not be considered as already implemented.
I think this matter is more important for hedging value between computing power supply and demand than for stimulating speculative sentiment. But computing power is not a standard commodity; hardware and task compatibility affect actual output. If the contract does not match the actual rental cost, hedging could instead leave exposure. This is my speculation; the key lies in the contract details. Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? What specifications do you think should be clearly written for computing power delivery?Is Dogecoin $DOGE worth holding long-term in this bull market???
I've always thought that the cryptocurrencies truly worth holding long-term should include both BTC and DOGE.
BTC is more like digital gold, with its core value being scarcity and store of value. But from the perspective of Satoshi Nakamoto's original concept of peer-to-peer electronic cash, DOGE aligns more closely with that direction.
Many people attack DOGE for its unlimited issuance, but they overlook a key point: a fixed issuance of about 5 billion coins per year does not mean the inflation rate remains constant forever. As the total circulating supply grows, the same amount of new issuance represents a decreasing proportion. Currently, the annual inflation rate is about 3%, and it will continue to decrease in the future.
Currency doesn't necessarily have to be absolutely deflationary. DOGE's design leans more towards circulation and payment, rather than having everyone lock up coins as scarce assets for hoarding.
DOGE itself is an independent PoW public chain, requiring miners to invest computing power and electricity to maintain the network. Its underlying mechanism is different from tokens issued directly on existing public chains. As BTC becomes increasingly financialized and more focused on value storage, it has indeed drifted from the original electronic cash vision. Coupled with the long-standing community disputes over its direction, it makes one wonder: is BTC's development path today still what Satoshi Nakamoto originally envisioned? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 October FOMC in one sentence: The baseline scenario is a “hawkish pause” — no rate hike, but absolutely no rate cut, with focus on whether to leave the door open for a December hike
This ties in with your earlier look at SK Hynix HBM memory chips: AI high-growth sectors (HBM, computing chips) are very sensitive to long-term US Treasury yields, and this FOMC is a major macro variable before SKHY earnings
Time: Beijing time, October 29 at 2:00 AM decision, 2:30 AM Powell press conference; ⚠️ This meeting will not update the dot plot or SEP economic forecasts, so information is concentrated in the statement wording + press conference Q&A
1. Current market consensus (CME FedWatch)
- Probability of holding rates steady in October (3.75%-4.00%) is about 90%, with only about 10% chance of a 25bp hike, and almost no pricing for a rate cut
- The real market game is whether there will be another 25bp hike in December; futures price the probability of a December hike close to 70%
- Background: a hike was just made in September; inflation stickiness + rising oil prices are hawkish reasons; weaker nonfarm payrolls and tech credit disruptions are reasons to pause consecutive hikes
2. Three scenario simulations (corresponding to the market, including storage stocks like SK Hynix)
✅ Scenario 1: Neutral baseline (highest probability) — pause rate hikes, keep wording that “further tightening may still be possible”
Powell’s stance: no commitment to a December hike, nor closing the door on hikes, continuing data dependence.