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$BTC marked positive spread with a significant shrinkage in the best bid-ask spread. Near-month annualized +21.9%, far-month annualized +5.91%, near end is more expensive; marked near-far spread +2.23%, best bid-ask spread for buy near sell far +0.96%. Marked looks good, best bid-ask spread is average.
$ETH best bid-ask positive spread corresponds to a very small scale. Buy near sell far bid-ask spread +0.72%, best bid-ask pair scale about 2 dollars; at a scale of 10,000, this only covers about 0.02%. Capacity limited, term signal is more for display.
$SOL marked spread is positive, but the best bid-ask for buy near sell far is inverted. Near-month annualized +9.84%, far-month annualized +0.48%, near end is more expensive; marked near-far spread +0.11%, best bid-ask spread for buy near sell far -1.1%. Inversion means the actual marked spread cannot be obtained.If one day, Bitcoin completely loses consensus due to quantum cryptography flaws and its trillion-dollar market value evaporates, the vast majority of funds will not directly flow into STRK; only a small portion of risk-averse capital will choose it. Ultimately, how much it can divert depends on STRK's maturity, liquidity, and competitive position in the sector at that time.
Three-tier scenario simulation (premise: BTC consensus collapse triggered by a quantum security crisis)
Assuming BTC's total market value is estimated at the 2 trillion level
1. Pessimistic scenario: STRK is merely a concept; L1 and full-chain quantum resistance are not fully implemented; unlocking pressure remains; ecosystem is thin. Institutions and long-term reserve funds dare not take heavy positions. Most fleeing funds prioritize physical gold, U.S. Treasuries, and cash; the remaining crypto funds disperse into ZEC and other post-quantum assets, stablecoins.
✅ Inflow to STRK: about 1%~3% of total BTC fleeing funds
That is roughly $20 billion to $60 billion. It can only bring pulse-like market moves with limited capacity.
2. Neutral scenario (most aligned with your long-term optimistic view): 2027 node delivery, independent L1 launch, full-chain quantum resistance audited by authoritative cryptographers, STRK20 privacy ecosystem formed, large unlocking cycles completed, sufficient liquidity.
It becomes one of the few native post-quantum base chains in the space suitable for long-term value storage; institutional funds list it as a quantum-secure alternative among crypto assets.
✅ Inflow to STRK: 5%~10% of total BTC fleeing funds
Corresponding to $100 billion to $200 billion. This scale will completely reshape STRK's valuation, upgrading it from a thematic coin to a reserve-type base public chain.
Still, a large amount of funds will go to gold and other post-quantum coins.
3. Extreme ideal scenario: There are almost no other mature native quantum-resistant base public chains in the industry; STRK is the only one with long-term practical validation, combining privacy and quantum resistance, recognized by the market as the new generation security benchmark for digital assets.
✅ Inflow to STRK: upper limit about 15%, very hard to exceed.
That is around $300 billion. It is almost impossible to absorb more than 30% of BTC outflow funds.
Why is it impossible for the majority of the trillion-dollar funds to all flood into STRK? (Key constraints)
1. Institutional funds' first priority is to exit the crypto sector, not just switch coins.
When the belief in Bitcoin as digital gold is shattered by the understanding that "elliptic curve cryptography can be broken by quantum computers," many institutions will directly judge that the entire crypto asset class has cryptographic vulnerabilities. Their first choice is to exit the crypto space and allocate to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds, rather than switch to another crypto token. This is the largest capital diversion outlet.
2. The post-quantum sector is not limited to STRK alone.
Projects like ZEC are also advancing NIST post-quantum upgrades, and new native quantum-resistant public chains will emerge. Risk-averse funds will diversify allocations and will not bet solely on a single project, naturally diluting STRK's incremental inflows.
3. Token supply, liquidity, and custody compliance have upper limits.
No matter how good the story is, if depth is insufficient, exchange custody support is incomplete, or regulatory doubts exist, large institutional funds cannot enter at scale. Trillion-dollar funds are hard to fit into a relatively small public chain ecosystem.
4. STRK itself carries independent risks and is not a risk-free safe haven.
It faces development delays, governance disputes, audit vulnerabilities, and regulatory risks. Institutions will not simply transfer all reserves previously held in BTC to another crypto project.
5. Existing leverage and liquidation losses.
During BTC consensus collapse, cascading liquidations and margin calls will occur, causing massive market value evaporation. Not all market value becomes "freely transferable active funds." Much value will be wiped out in the panic selling, leaving no funds available to buy STRK.#AWS computing power demand is strong, what are the highlights of Amazon's Q3 earnings report?
Amazon released its Q3 earnings report after market close on October 29. Deutsche Bank expects total revenue of $202.8 billion, with AWS growth accelerating from 37% in Q2 to 41%, Q3 revenue about $46.5 billion, and further rising to 44% in Q4. Jassy himself said that the main AWS capacity for 2026 is already sold out, most of 2027 is booked, and a significant portion of 2028 is also locked in by customers. On the demand side, there really is no shortage.
But what really determines the stock price are the three cost items.
First, depreciation. AWS Q2 depreciation surged 67% year-over-year, far exceeding revenue growth, and about 90 billion in new assets added in the first half of the year have just started to be depreciated. Second, the power bottleneck. A large number of GB300 racks are stuck in transit warehouses "gathering dust" due to insufficient power supply, depreciation continues, but revenue does not come in. Third, cash flow. Q2 free cash flow has already turned negative to -7.6 billion, and Deutsche Bank has raised the 2027 capital expenditure forecast to 330 billion.
Deutsche Bank has already lowered the Q3 AWS operating margin from 39.4% to 37.1%.
Old Mo says: Revenue beating expectations is a given, but whether AWS growth can hold at 42%, whether power idling can be alleviated, and when cash flow will stop falling—if these three issues are not clarified during the call, no matter how good the profit numbers look, it’s all for nothing. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Guest this episode: BTC, ETH, ZEC Retail short positions for BTC and ETH have reached 68%, while retail for ZEC is more bullish — but within ±3% of ZEC's current price, shorts account for 74%. $BTC | Resistance 80,927.4–81,940.0 | Support 77,970.8–78,983.3 Current price 80,216.1, 0.9% below resistance, 1.6% above support. This morning there was a dip to 79,700 followed by a rebound, closing with a long lower shadow and a bullish engulfing; currently standing 0.1% above the 1H Bollinger middle band. Resistance at 0.9% above is the range 80,927.4–81,940.0, with the short pain point at 81,139.44 (82.61 million) within it; last night’s 80,822.6 stopped just 0.13% below this range, almost breaking in. Support at 0.8% below is the bullish pain point at 79,546.71 (101 million), 22% thicker than the resistance pain point; the two lows from yesterday morning and this morning were below it, now it has recovered above. Further down at 1.6% below is the 77,970.8–78,983.3 range. The long-short ratio is 0.48, with shorts at 67.6%; within ±3% of the current price, shorts are 58%, down 1 percentage point from 24 hours ago. Open interest is up 4.6% from yesterday, the largest increase among the three coins. Resistance at 0.9% above, support at 0.8% below 🚀Robinhood revenue surpasses ETH! Three exchanges on Chain, market reactions are polar opposites
$HYPE 76.3 📊
Hyperliquid's self-developed L1 supports the order book, with protocol fees flowing back to token holders. Robinhood Chain's Q1 revenue exceeded Ethereum's, igniting the on-chain trading sector, but HYPE has dropped from 80 to 76.3, and funds have not chosen it. 75 is a key observation point; early bottom-fishing is not recommended.
$ENA 0.208 🚀
The yield protocol surged 8% yesterday. It relies on USDe-collateralized US Treasury yields, trading ahead of rate cut expectations. Today it is consolidating without growth; buyers chasing highs have stopped. The FOMC decision is early tomorrow morning; if the tone is dovish, there is room for a rebound; if hawkish, this 8% gain could easily be given back, so do not chase highs.
$ASTER 0.7 🛰️
Multi-chain contract DEXs are still in a dormant phase. Multiple chains have launched perpetual contracts with complete fee and market-making rebate mechanisms, but trading volume is only in the hundreds of thousands of USD. Robinhood's profit foundation is existing users; these new chain DEXs need major events to attract traffic and break through.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Ripple has completed the banking license process, but the truly valuable asset is not the stablecoin.
The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has officially approved Ripple as a national trust bank, allowing RLUSD to operate under a federally regulated banking platform, and also enabling it to provide digital asset custody services for enterprises.
The timeline is interesting: submitted materials last July, received conditional approval in December, and it took another ten months to become fully licensed. The delays were due to capital, auditing, and operational issues—not the license itself.
And the valuable part isn’t RLUSD — that thing has a market cap just over one billion at best. The real value lies in custody: letting enterprises entrust their coins and private keys to Ripple for safekeeping. This is the traditional custody business that banks have held for years, now taken over by a cross-border payment company.
But why would enterprises trust you? That’s the debt to repay after obtaining the license 😶
$BTC
$ETH
$XRP Yesterday's surge, $ZEC didn't gain the most, but it brought in the most money.
$BTC and $ETH haven't even reached a single point in open interest. ZEC's open interest increased by eight points with the price rise, and trading volume expanded by 20%. Both are rising, but one just shifted slightly, while the other truly has new positions opening.
By unit price increase, each point ZEC rises brings in new positions an order of magnitude higher than the overall market. This difference isn't just sentiment; there are specific people betting on it.
The shorts are taking a hit. Shorts make up the majority of liquidations in the past 24 hours, with a well-known whale's short position already showing a floating loss of over 20 million USD. The rapid rise owes half the credit to these players.
But it's not cheap anymore. It has more than doubled in three months, up over 100% this year, still about 60% below its all-time high. The reasons for the rise are clear: privacy narrative, mainnet upgrade on November 5th, and the developer toolkit just released.
Today's low was 1,177, high 1,238, trading within this roughly 100-point range. If it breaks below the lower boundary, the money pushed in earlier will likely exit first — that batch of funds is concentrated in the hands of a few. SK Hynix (000660.KS) is currently trading at about 1.277 million KRW, having retraced nearly 60% from its peak, but brokerage target prices generally remain above 3 million KRW, showing significant divergence. Technically, it is in an "oversold but not reversed" state. The stock price plunged 24.3% in one week from 1.681 million KRW, marking the largest weekly drop since 2008. Foreign investors net sold 5.36 trillion KRW in one week, reducing their holding ratio to a four-year low of 48.85%. After completing a repurchase of about 40 trillion KRW on October 21, the support buying disappeared, leading to increased short-term volatility. 74.18% of holders are at a loss, with retail investors who entered at high levels between April and June trapped, creating continuous selling pressure. The news sentiment is sharply divided. Citi expects operating profit of 81.3 trillion KRW in Q3, exceeding market expectations by 8%, maintaining a target price of 3 million KRW and a buy rating, believing the storage upcycle will continue until 2028. However, HBM4 shipments fell short of expectations, with Samsung's HBM market share rising from 21% to 33%, narrowing the gap from 37 percentage points to 17 percentage points. Solidigm's US IPO has been terminated, seen as a signal prioritizing shareholder value, but supply-demand pressure reemerged after the buyback ended. The earnings report on October 28 will also announce shareholder return plans, which is the most critical short-term variable.Defense broken, defense broken! After accumulating points for several months, I checked the airdrop and only a single-digit amount was left 😂
That perpetual exchange which doesn't issue coins but switched to stablecoins, once the airdrop query page opened, the comment section exploded. Someone claiming to be the top rank shared their record: trading points about 396,900, fee contribution over 5,000 USD, lost about 20,000 USD overall, and finally got about 904 stablecoins. Even worse, someone with about 4,000 USD in wear showed only 13.69 received; another who pre-deposited 5,000 and had 8,200 points showed zero directly.
About ten days ago, many praised its decent shutdown, no coin issuance to dump the market. But after the quota was released, the whole network was asking for U compensation, and the official hasn't responded yet. Some have over a hundred wallets holding more than a hundred thousand USD, but the page says no allocation; others who deposited early only got 2.5 coins.
The claim started on November 1 and ends on December 31. The project is about to close, and this account is just written off. In crypto airdrops, the biggest fear is spending time only to find out you just paid a fee.
For beginners, it's recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC When $ETH rose to 2807, I said that if it couldn't break through 2810-2820, the uptrend would be over. Subsequently, ETH repeatedly tested upward but failed each time, then started to decline. So far, the drop has reached 18.76%. What is the outlook?
The decline starting from 2807 is temporarily seen as a correction for the rise from 1505 to 2807, both belonging to the weekly level. The 2807-2282 range is part or all of the correction.
If 2807-2282 is the entire correction, ETH should quickly break through and stabilize above 2370-2390 and not fall below the green Gann angle line 2/1 afterward.
Otherwise, the rise from 2282 is a rebound, and after the rebound ends, ETH will continue to adjust. The secondary bottom is at 2145-2156 (at the intersection of MA200 and Fibonacci 0.5).
The correction starting from 2807 may end as early as mid-November.
Currently, the secondary bottom is oscillating near 2300.
The ETH/BTC ratio continues to decline, with capital preference shifting to BTC; large on-chain staking lock-up and continuous withdrawals are long-term positives, but spot ETFs continue net outflows, and spot support is weak.
The current price is stuck in the middle of the long-short liquidation range, with long liquidations accumulating below at 2279 and short liquidations above at 2346. High-leverage long positions remain active, and market sentiment is intense.
Wednesday's FOMC decision is the core catalyst. A hawkish stance could break below 2300, easily triggering a long squeeze; if the ETF holds 2280, there is a chance to squeeze shorts and rebound to 2346. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ It is highly likely to be close to consensus expectations; if HBM4 ramps up smoothly and storage spot prices rise strongly, there is a chance to slightly exceed expectations; if HBM4 continues to be delayed, it is likely to fall short of expectations. In the second quarter, there was already a situation of "record high absolute profit but below consensus expectations," which should be closely watched.【Revenue Soars 1200% in One Year, Anthropic Has Truly Turned AI Business into a Money Printing Machine】
One of the most explosive figures in Anthropic's IPO filing with the U.S. SEC is the approximately 1200% year-over-year revenue growth for the trailing 12 months ending September 2026, while the number of employees only increased by about 170% during the same period. Revenue per employee rose from $1.4 million to over $6.6 million. Products like Claude Code are turning AI demand into real cash, with enterprises willing to pay continuously, which is more convincing than simply boosting user numbers.
However, soaring revenue does not necessarily mean profits will take off as well. In the first half of 2026, $ANTHROPIC's revenue reached $16.3 billion, with compute and infrastructure expenses also hitting about $8.9 billion. The AI business has indeed commercialized successfully, but the more people use the models, the more staggering the compute bills become.
What remains to be seen is whether revenue can continue to grow, whether compute costs can be reduced, and whether customers will cut spending due to competition and price drops. A 1200% growth rate is impressive but cannot be sustained forever. As soon as revenue growth slows and costs cannot be lowered, this money printing machine will face valuation tests. For now, this mainly proves that AI commercial demand is exploding, but it does not directly prove that high valuations are always justified.Many people mistakenly believe that Ripple's application for a banking license is to hype the price of XRP, but in fact, its core goal is to promote its own US dollar stablecoin RLUSD.
Compliance and Trust: By placing RLUSD's reserves under the dual strict supervision of the federal (OCC) and New York State (NYDFS), it can greatly enhance institutional investors' trust in RLUSD.
Federal Reserve Account: After becoming a federally regulated bank, Ripple can even open a master account for its stablecoin reserves directly at the Federal Reserve, which is considered a very high level of security by traditional financial institutions and is its biggest competitive advantage over USDT and USDC.Some mining companies sold all the coins they mined: the narrative of holding coins is fracturing
Here's a small detail many people haven't noticed, but I think it's quite representative.
Bitdeer's weekly report: As of the week of October 16, it mined 294.2 BTC, sold them all, with a net increase of 0, currently holding zero (excluding client custody).
Throwing 294 coins into the market didn't even make a splash; the volume is completely negligible. But the signal is valuable: this company clearly positions itself as a "computing power service and AI computing power operator," not a "Bitcoin-based holder."
Looking back two years ago, the standard script for mining companies was "mine and hoard, wait for the halving to increase prices." Now it's different—computing power can be rented out to AI and HPC, and power resources can directly generate cash flow, so why bear the volatility of coin prices?
This is the opposite path from sellers: one turns the company into Bitcoin, the other turns the mining farm into a computing power sales business. Neither is wrong, but together they indicate one thing: the old consensus that "mining companies are naturally bullish" is loosening.
The impact on price is medium to long term: previously, halving plus mining companies hoarding coins was a dual contraction on the supply side; in the future, that half of hoarding coins may become increasingly unreliable. I'm not bearish writing this, just reminding myself not to take "mining companies will support the bottom" as a default assumption anymore.#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings
$SKHY part 2: the Kioxia math 📉
Kioxia fell 89,680 → ~54,300 yen in Q3 (−39.5%). Yen −10% vs won. SK hynix still holds Kioxia convertible bonds, marked to market → est. −15 to −29T KRW loss. Won +12% vs USD also hits its USD cash.
My bridge: net profit ~38–48T vs ~62T needed → ~$4–5 per ADS vs $6.26.
NFA #OKXOutcomes #EarningsSeasonMSCI's Hidden Threat: Someone Might Be "Passively Dumped" on November 30
This topic has low buzz, but I believe it's the most underestimated institutional risk this round.
On October 15, MSCI set a new rule: "Non-operating companies" cannot be included in its Global Investable Market Index, effective at the close on November 30, with the specific list to be released on November 11. What does non-operating mean? It means companies whose assets are mostly Bitcoin and have little main business revenue—yes, I'm pointing at Strategy.
Saylor himself publicly called this rule "discriminatory."
Why am I nervous? Because once kicked out of the index, all passive funds tracking MSCI must mechanically sell MSTR. This isn't selling because of bearish sentiment; it's forced by the ledger, so the selling pressure has nothing to do with the company's fundamentals. And MSTR's stock price, preferred shares (STRC), and even market sentiment toward the "treasury company" sector will be affected.
Saylor stopped buying crypto this week and switched to repurchasing STRC. Does this give you an extra layer of understanding? He's strengthening the capital structure, preparing in advance for the November hurdle.
I can't say for sure it will be kicked out, but I'll be especially alert on November 11. If this bomb explodes, the crypto price may not crash, but MSTR and its partners will shake first.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Many people previously said that the mass production of HBM4 meant all the good news was already priced in. However, SK Hynix just started small-batch deliveries in Q2, achieving a quarterly profit of over 60 trillion KRW with a profit margin of 76%. This hardly looks like the good news has been exhausted; clearly, a new profit cycle is just beginning. Now in Q3, HBM4 capacity is officially ramping up, and contract prices for regular DRAM are still rising. Both sides of the business are improving. The small shipment fluctuations from Nvidia's new cards before cannot stop the big trend of profits hitting new highs again. All the holdings are at high prices, and the performance for the next few quarters is basically clear. SK Hynix is pushing profits to historic highs thanks to HBM4, and there really is no doubt about it.$FIL How much does Bitcoin need to break through in USD to truly signal a bull market?
Simply "breaking through a certain integer level" is not enough—Bitcoin has historically spiked to new highs many times and then dropped back, which were short squeezes, not real bulls. A more reliable approach is to divide the "bull arrival" into three stages, considering price + time + capital for triple confirmation.
1. Three-stage confirmation: from "suspected" to "real bull"
🟡 Stage 1: Initial technical bull confirmation (81,000–85,000 USD)
- Key level is the 365-day moving average, currently around 81,000–84,000 USD
- Requirement: weekly close must hold above this moving average, not just daily spikes
- CryptoQuant’s view is clear: historically, BTC bull markets officially start only when price closes above the 365-day MA
- Also must hold 83,000 USD support; breaking below returns to consolidation range
🟠 Stage 2: Trend strengthening (87,000–90,000 USD)
- Break through the 20-month moving average around 87,000 USD, the "turning boundary"
- After holding above, target is 95,000–100,000 USD range
- This stage requires continuous net inflow from ETFs and spot buying to replace contract leverage
🟢 Stage 3: True bull main upward wave (above 126,000 USD)
- Historical high around 126,000 USD in October 2025
- The true "comprehensive bull market" sign: effective breakout of previous high with a retest that holds, accompanied by:
- On-chain MVRV and NUPL staying in bull market range without turning red
- Altcoins generally profitable, market breadth expanding (no longer BTC alone)
- Stablecoin total market cap continuously expanding, ETFs with consecutive weeks of net inflow
2. Why price alone is not enough
Breaking a price level is just a "ticket"; if the following signals are not synchronized, the breakout is likely a fake bull:
Dimension Real Bull Characteristics Fake Breakout Features
Buy-side structure Spot-led + ETF net inflow Mainly relying on contract short squeezes
Retest Higher highs and higher lows Quick drop back after breakout
On-chain NUPL/MVRV turn bull and stay bull Price rises but indicators diverge
Breadth ETH and major coins take over Only BTC rises alone
⚠️ In August 2026 when the price surged to 80,000, analysts warned: short squeezes explain how fast it rose but not whether capital is sustained—without seeing continuous ETF inflows, it’s not a main upward wave.
3. An actionable observation checklist for you
No need to watch the market daily, just monitor these key points:
1. Can the weekly close stay above 83,000 USD (365-day MA) — determines if technical bull is established
2. Can 87,000–90,000 USD hold sideways for more than a week — determines if strengthening is effective
3. Does the pullback hold above previous lows (currently key supports at 78,500/70,000) — determines trend structure
4. ETF net inflow for 2–3 consecutive weeks — determines if incremental capital exists
5. Break above 126,000 previous high and retest holds — determines main upward wave start
4. One-sentence conclusion
- Closing above 83,000 with weekly confirmation → bull market "restarts" signal
- Breaking 90,000 and holding on retest → trend bull credibility is high
- Effective breakout above 126,000 previous high → comprehensive main upward wave confirmedThere are 9 days left until the midterm elections, an ominous historical pattern
On November 3rd, the U.S. midterm elections will take place. Then someone dug up a chilling statistic: historically, after every U.S. midterm election, Bitcoin has experienced a correction.
I can't say this time will definitely be the same, but the mechanism makes sense. Before the election, policy expectations are "possibly positive"; once the election ends, uncertainty settles, and funds cash out first. Plus, the timing is already tense — the Federal Reserve's statement on Wednesday, followed by the PCE inflation data on Thursday (October 29), all three shocks packed into just over a week.
Looking at the geopolitical side: over the weekend, reports emerged that the U.S. evacuated personnel from embassies and military bases in multiple Middle Eastern countries, with intelligence pointing to Iran preparing actions against the U.S.; Brent crude has already risen above $110, with some reports even shouting $117[web_doc 11][web_doc 22]. Trump also hinted at possibly another round of strikes against Iran after the midterms[web_doc 11].
Oil, war, elections, rate hikes — these four combined make Bitcoin a short-term risk tolerance scoreboard, not a safe haven.
My rule for myself: no new directional positions before November 3rd. Historical patterns aren't gospel, but "don't jump in the minefield" is common sense. The order book has thinned out, and this is what I truly fear.
Price drops aren't scary; what scares me is that the same sell orders can push the price down even further.
Right now, I'm watching a less obvious indicator: funds moving from altcoins to stablecoins. Over the past week, the total market cap shrank from 2.79 trillion to 2.68 trillion, ETH dropped 4% in seven days, making it the weakest among the major coins. Money hasn't fled to gold or US stocks; it's first parked into USDC and USDT.
This means market makers have less ammunition to hedge and provide liquidity, so the order book is thin. That's why you saw scenes like over the weekend: spot trading volume just over 1 billion, and a single not-so-large sell order smashed the price from 80,900 down to 79,300[web_doc 13].
There's another piece of evidence. Coinbase's stock closed at $159.6 yesterday, down 2.95% in one day, with a 52-week range of 139.11 to 373.25—more than halved from its peak. Quarterly revenue also dropped 18.5% year-over-year, with a net loss of 359 million. Exchanges are the first thermometers to sense "trading heat." They fall before the coins do, indicating retail activity is truly cooling down.
I don't rely on this to bottom-fish, but I know one thing: in a thin market, any move gets amplified. Trading futures now is like racing on thin ice. $BTC An overlooked contradiction: on one side, the models are fiercely engaged in price wars, while on the other, chips are still priced based on "unlimited demand."
This week, OpenAI's new model API slashed prices by half, and DeepSeek's new version saw an eightfold surge in usage within a week, topping global charts. The inference business is visibly heading towards "rock-bottom prices."
Meanwhile, upstream chips and memory are being valued based on the narrative of "super cycles and supply shortages."
A common sense fact: when the products you sell are aggressively dropping in price, but you stock raw materials expecting prices to always rise, the gap between these will eventually have to be settled. Capital expenditures are real money spent today, while returns are uncertain future expectations.
AI is real, and the bubble is real too. Both can be true at the same time.Seller didn't buy a single BTC this Monday, but I understood what he was doing
This news went viral yesterday, but most headlines got it wrong.
The fact is: from October 19 to 25, Strategy bought 0 coins, marking the first pause since mid-September; at the same time, no ATM was conducted (meaning no new shares were issued to raise money), instead, $204.9 million in USD cash was used to repurchase 2.068 million shares of STRC preferred stock [web_doc 10][web_doc 18]. The total holdings remain 848,517 coins, with an average price of about $75,440 [web_doc 18].
Many people shouted "Seller has defected." I think it's exactly the opposite—he's doing the math.
STRC is a perpetual preferred security with a floating dividend, currently trading below its $100 par value (around 99.35). The company buys back bonds with a $100 par value at $99, effectively earning a risk-free 1% and reducing future dividend burdens [web_doc 10]. This is much more cost-effective than buying a coin at $80,000.
Looking at his ledger: throughout October, he spent about $664 million on repurchasing preferred shares, but only $72.3 million on buying coins. Nine dollars to service debt, one dollar to buy coins.
My interpretation: he’s not fleeing, he’s fixing the house. Once the capital structure is tidied up, he’ll have the strength to continue buying. The Middle East crisis is still burning: the Iranian military has declared full control over the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump is talking about continuing to apply pressure. The throat of crude oil is being squeezed again.
According to the old script, war equals risk aversion, so you should buy gold and Bitcoin. But in the past two days, gold prices have not risen; instead, they have fallen. Why?
Because this time, the market is pricing the war as "rate hikes," not "risk aversion." Oil prices surge, inflation expectations rise, making rate cuts even harder, and real interest rates go up. Interest-free assets like gold and Bitcoin are the first to be strangled by this interest rate line.
So don’t reflexively shout "bullish $BTC" just because the Middle East is at war. First, check where the 10-year US Treasury yield is heading. Geopolitics is the fuse; interest rates are the scale.#SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? SOL has been the most exhausting to watch this week, and the more I watch, the less I want to touch it. Every time it hits 100, it bounces, then slowly grinds back. On the night of 10/24, it dipped to a low of 98.62, on the morning of 10/26 it was 99.88, and at 7 AM today it was 99.93. Three days, three times, like clocking in for work. The strange thing is on the other side. The long-short account ratio in contracts was 2.19 on the night of 10/20, now it's 3.13. The price dropped from 108 to around 100, but the number of long accounts actually increased. I plotted the hourly price and this ratio together for the week, and it’s almost a line slanting up to the left. Positions haven’t been idle either, rising 3.3% in 24 hours. My understanding is simple: everyone thinks 100 is the floor, so they all stand on the floor. When too many stand on the floor, it easily becomes a springboard. If it really breaks below, the first to run will be this group. Of course, maybe I’m overthinking. The account ratio counts heads, not money, so maybe big players are quietly accumulating on the other side. The funding rate these past two days is only about 0.01%, not crazy. So I’m not that sure, just feel this structure is uncomfortable. Another variable is the FOMC result at 2 AM Beijing time on 10/29, about 42 hours from now. Coins that consolidate at times like this are easily decided by a single spike. Bottom line, the 100 reference level has been tested three times, and the more it’s tested, the thinner it gets. I’d rather wait for it to give an answer before making a move. $SOL #OctoberFOMCRateDecisionToBeAnnouncedThisWeek That 810 million over the weekend wasn't a crash; it was a "mechanical shakeout".
Here's the conclusion first: this drop below 80,000 is different from the usual "narrative collapse" I've seen before. It looks more like a mechanical action where leverage was automatically liquidated.
The data shows: on Saturday, BTC hit a low of 79,146 USD, the lowest point in over a month, then bounced back to around 80,900 [web_doc 11]. CoinGlass reported 810 million USD in liquidations across the network in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 689 million; the harshest moment wiped out 219 million long positions in one hour, and over 200 million in just 15 minutes [web_doc 11][web_doc 3].
Sounds scary, right? But looking at the scale, it’s not a stampede: on October 15 alone, liquidations reached 942 million, and on October 8, 485 million were liquidated in one hour [web_doc 3]. This time is only "medium". Also, a key detail — Bitfinex data shows that while longs were liquidated, open interest didn’t drop; new shorts entered at the same pace [web_doc 19].
In plain language: this isn’t "everyone running scared," it’s "longs and shorts swapping seats."
So I’m neither panicking nor bottom-fishing. What you should really fear is a volume surge, a crash in open interest, and a price that never recovers — this isn’t that. The 810 million wiped out crowded long bets, not Bitcoin’s fundamentals.South Korea's Q3 GDP is out, with a quarter-on-quarter rate of 1%, significantly higher than the market's 0.7% estimate, and an annual rate of 3.4%, also exceeding expectations. The numbers look good, but when broken down, only one leg is supporting it: export growth is almost entirely reliant on semiconductors, and even the 4% increase in equipment investment is money spent on chip production lines.
On the other hand, private consumption is negative. People are tightening their pockets, while companies are aggressively expanding memory production capacity.
Many people use this data to prove how strong the "memory super cycle" is. What I see is the other side: when a country's growth is tied to a single cyclical product, the more concentrated the prosperity, the more fragile the turning point. The specialty of cyclical products is to turn around just when everyone is convinced "this time is different."
Tomorrow's Q3 report from SK Hynix will be the health check for this leg.$BEAT always plays the pump a bit higher to lure buyers, this thing keeps doing that, releasing so much supply yet still managing to control the price at a high level.#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 This signal boosts risk appetite in the crypto market and indirectly supports the strength of high-beta assets like Tesla. I judge the short-term trend as bullish but caution against chasing highs. The price rose from a low of 370.57 to 397.55 before slightly pulling back. Both the one-hour and four-hour trends are upward, with a 13.25% rise from the low in four hours indicating momentum remains; however, the buy-sell ratio in the top 10 order book levels is only 0.82, showing selling pressure dominance, and the funding rate is zero with 41,000 positions, indicating cautious bullish sentiment and no overheated leverage. A light long position can be tried on a pullback to 389.65, with a stop loss at 384.35 and a target of 396.85; if the price stalls near 398.45, reduce positions, keeping single trades under 20% and strictly observing stop loss.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$TSLA#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹
$TSLA #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Shannon Semiconductor's Q3 report shows an extreme split — net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters surged 1386% year-on-year, but Q3 single-quarter profit dropped sharply by 26.59% quarter-on-quarter. This does not indicate a collapse in demand, but rather the "fragility" unique to the storage distribution model at the peak of the cycle: as the original manufacturers' price increase slope converges and the low-price inventory dividend is exhausted, the company is in the painful transition from "excessive profit destocking" to "high-price restocking." The extremely low dynamic P/E ratio is precisely the market's early pricing of the cycle peak.BTC is currently around $80,000–$80,400, with a 24-hour range roughly between $79,300 and $80,900, down about 0.5%–0.9%, overall still hovering near $80,000 with repeated tug-of-war.
Market bias is weak: sell orders are clearly stronger than buy orders within a ±0.5% range, making short-term rebounds prone to resistance. Open interest is about $7.526 billion, funding rate +0.0073%, long accounts dominate, but about $12.86 million liquidated in the past 24 hours, with more longs being wiped out.
On the funding side, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of about $301 million last week, but on October 22–23, there was an outflow of about $773 million, indicating institutional funds remain cautious. On-chain whales had a net inflow of about $5.49 million in the past 24 hours, showing some funds are accumulating at low levels, but strong buying has yet to form.
The biggest variable this week remains the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28. The market mainly prices in a rate hold, but attention is focused on signals for December. The 10-year US Treasury yield is about 5%, the dollar is relatively strong, which remains unfavorable for risk assets.
Outlook: In the short term, watch if $80,000 can hold; if broken, be cautious of a drop to $79,300 or $79,000; on the upside, watch $80,900 and $81,500, with volume breakout needed for recovery talk. Use low leverage and always set stop-losses on contracts; reduce heavy positions around the Fed meeting. The above does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin’s repeated brushes with $80,000 look less like a breakdown than a market holding its breath. At $80,130, $BTC is down just 0.33% over 24 hours, with $ETH at $2,320 (-0.30%) and $SOL at $100.62 (-1.22%). The tightness of those moves matters. This is not capitulation; it is the kind of pre-event de-risking that tends to precede a major central-bank week. The macro backdrop explains the caution without requiring a single piece of bad news. A Federal Reserve policy meeting is approaching, oi$TRX
The CEO of CoinDCX said on X three days ago that the wallet was not hacked, it was a false alarm. Today the exchange admitted in a blog post: 15.99 million USDT, the company will cover it themselves.
The process was quite ugly. On October 21, blockchain investigators first found that its hot wallet and several deposit addresses were transferring money out, 15.99 million USDT all sent to the same TRON address, the largest single transfer was 15.819 million, then split and sent to deposit addresses of several major exchanges. The CEO immediately refuted, saying that was an old address abandoned after being hacked in July last year, and the hacker was reusing it. ZachXBT directly pushed back, saying this address was still collecting user deposits for them in April and May this year. This time the blockchain people verified again.
The official explanation is an automatic collection service failure, deposits in the old wallet were not transferred out and were taken by someone, the company bears the loss, user funds are safe. Along with the 44 million loss last year, this largest Indian exchange has lost nearly 60 million in two years. Tether acted quickly, freezing 9 TRON addresses on the 22nd, totaling 2.21 million USD.
The reminder this gives me is not to be wary of exchanges, but about posture: when the official is stubborn, blockchain addresses are more honest than tweets. I once believed an official statement years ago, holding a small exchange’s platform token, and that exchange later delayed withdrawals for three months.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $SNDK
The most unfair drop in this wave, in my opinion, is SanDisk. Last week it fell from 1582 to 1299, down 18%, triggered by Changxin saying they will release denser server DRAM by the end of the year. The problem is Changxin makes DRAM, while SanDisk makes NAND flash memory, which is a completely different product. Yet SanDisk's drop was even more severe than Micron, which mainly focuses on DRAM.
Looking at SanDisk's own numbers: last quarter revenue was $8.965 billion, nearly quadrupling year-over-year, EPS beat expectations for five consecutive quarters, and the board approved a $14 billion buyback. The stock price, however, dropped 33% in a month, nearly halving from the 52-week high of 2354, with a forward PE of just around 6.
The market fears that NAND price increases won't hold; last quarter, two-thirds of the growth was driven by price hikes rather than volume. This concern isn't unreasonable, but using a DRAM-related news item unrelated to SanDisk as a reason to sell off is somewhat emotional. The earnings report will be released after Thursday's market close; I'll wait to see if the gross margin can hold the 83%-85% range before considering buying.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 🚨 The Federal Reserve meeting is about to hit! The real test for Bitcoin is not the interest rate decision, but what Powell will say next! ⏳ In the next two days, the market will face the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The interest rate decision is expected to be announced at 2:00 AM on Thursday, followed by Powell's press conference at 2:30 AM. 🔍 Don't be fooled by the market's general expectations. Investors may have prepared for the interest rate decision, but Powell's wording could still be the key factor triggering market volatility. 📌 First: Why not raising rates is not necessarily good for Bitcoin? 📊 Currently, the market expects about a 90% probability that the Fed will not raise rates, and this outcome has largely been priced in by the market. ⚠️ Therefore, if the final decision meets expectations, it may not be able to push Bitcoin prices higher. What truly affects the price is not just the news itself, but the gap between the actual result and market expectations. 🔥 Second: The real focus is December! 🎯 According to the data mentioned so far, the market's expectation of a rate hike in December is 69%. This is one of the potential risks to watch out for in this meeting. 📉 If Powell indicates that a December rate hike is not ruled out, even without a clear commitment to raise rates, it could quickly change investors' expectations and increase selling pressure on high-risk assets like Bitcoin. 🧠 In other words, even if the Fed chooses to keep rates unchanged this time, if Powell's speech leans hawkish, the market may still interpret it as a future monetary policy tightening trend As oil prices ease, BTC rises. Is this wave a chase for gains or a shakeout? Are you seeing a rebound, or is leverage quietly changing hands? Watching the market last night gave a subtle feeling: BTC first dipped a bit, oil prices fell in sync, then BTC slowly climbed back. On the surface, it looks like the old script of "oil prices fall, risk assets rise," but the information from derivatives is more intriguing. At this stage, I prefer to define it as a game market—not a clean chase for gains, nor a simple consolidation, but more like washing out high-entry chips while testing the patience of shorts.
First, look at the signals. The oil price drop indeed gave risk appetite a breather; stock indices and crypto warmed up together, indicating that the macro line still holds sentiment. But the key is, in this rebound, open interest hasn't shrunk significantly, and funding rates aren't extremely negative, meaning shorts haven't been completely squeezed out, and longs haven't panicked out. In other words, prices have returned, but leverage hasn't been cleaned out, making this structure prone to sweeping back and forth at critical points.
Sector strength also shows layering. BTC's elasticity is relatively mild, recovering steadily after a pullback, as if supported by big money; ETH's volatility is obviously greater, with more exaggerated ups and downs, suitable for playing elasticity but also more prone to spikes; old coins like ZEC have become completely clone-like, with volatility exceeding many small coins, occasionally running independent trends. The 1000 level has been repeatedly tested as support; as long as it holds, some short-term players are willing to buy the dip when oil prices fall to capture a few points. But note, this is more like guerrilla warfare by short-term funds, not trend-following capital entering.
Leaning bullish #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Nvidia Rubin chip delayed, HBM4 customer certification and tuning cycles extended, Q3 still in small batch sample delivery/validation stage, large-scale volume ramp-up window market originally agreed to be in Q4. TrendForce previously noted SK Hynix HBM4 has interface synchronization issues, mass production schedule delayed; some production lines temporarily switched to producing regular DDR5, squeezing HBM4 output, and the full-year HBM4 shipment guidance has already been downgraded by multiple brokerages once.
The profit pillar this quarter remains HBM3E, with HBM4 contributing very little to revenue and gross profit growth. The market has already priced in that "HBM4 is just climbing the ramp and does not contribute significant profits," so no surprises are expected.
Competitor Samsung's HBM4 yield rate has first reached 80%, with Q3 HBM4 revenue planned to increase threefold quarter-over-quarter, continuously gaining share in Nvidia's supply chain; SK Hynix's HBM revenue share dropped from 58% in Q2 to 50%, and share decline during generational transition is an established trend, making it difficult to see an unexpected share increase. BTC is repeatedly tugging at the 80,000 level. A whale shorting Bitcoin at 40x leverage has already suffered unrealized losses exceeding $4 million.
The opponent of the "100% win rate whale" is now somewhat stuck. The 40x short position urgently added 1 million USDC margin two hours ago, raising the liquidation price to $118,409. There's still a $2,400 gap from the current price, but unrealized losses have expanded to $4.07 million.
He is betting that 80,000 won't hold.
But the script on the other side just played out a few days ago. When BTC broke below 80,000, two whales on Hyper had a combined $8.05 million long position liquidated, with a real loss of $278,000. Brother Maji's 25x ETH long was repeatedly force-liquidated, accumulating losses exceeding $35.37 million.
Shorts are holding on desperately, longs are being forced out. At the 80,000 level, both sides are betting their lives.
The funding side gives another signal. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $442 million, while Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of $224 million, bleeding for four consecutive weeks. Money is moving into $BTC, not into ETH.
Short-term buy orders concentrate around $79,300, with about $73 million in orders; selling pressure is above $81,000. On the 29th, the FOMC meeting has over 90% of the market betting on no change, but the real variable is the Fed Chair's press conference.
This 40x short is betting that the 80,000 level is propped up by paper ETF money flowing into BTC on a weekly scale. Shorts bear leverage, longs bear spot. Leverage can't outlast spot.
$ETH The $BTC futures tape is delivering a lesson in equilibrium, and the market appears to be learning it the hard way. At a spot price of 80,256, the largest contract has moved just 0.02% lower over the day, yet capital is stacked almost perfectly down the middle: 18.29 billion in longs against 18.15 billion in shorts, a 50.2% to 49.8% split. That is not indecision in the casual sense. It is a market where both sides have paid up to sit exactly where they are. The same standoff repeats with differeAfter the U.S. stock market closed (early morning Beijing time on October 27), the trends of four categories diverged significantly: precious metals caught a breather after being oversold, copper stabilized weakly amid inventory and tariff battles, and natural gas was crushed by both weather and positioning, falling to a six-month low.
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🥇 Gold: Back above $4000, but the rebound's "foundation" is the oil price retreat, not a strengthening of its own fundamentals
Spot gold closed around $4016–4020/oz, up 0.55%–0.6%; COMEX December gold futures closed up 0.8% at $4038.40. Previously, last Friday it had fallen to $3975, the lowest since July.
The direct catalyst for the rebound was the drop in crude oil. Officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan visited Tehran to engage with Iran, and diplomatic efforts eased market concerns about supply disruptions. Brent crude closed at $115.81, ending a three-day rally. The oil price retreat eased the "energy → inflation → rate hike" chain's pressure on gold. StoneX strategists clearly stated: "A slight drop in crude oil prices supports gold prices, and there is also some dip-buying activity."
However, the fragility of this rebound is very clear. The market still prices a 75%–80% chance of a rate hike in December. The Federal Reserve is likely to hold steady this week, but a "pause" does not mean the end of tightening. TD Securities expects the Fed to hike once more in December and again in March next year. Technically, gold prices remain below medium- and long-term moving averages, with the Bollinger Bands middle and upper bands (around $4130–4240) forming resistance. The rebound is more of an "oversold correction" than a trend reversal.
Key levels: Resistance at 4020/4045/4070/4095; support at 3995/3970/3945/3920.
🥈 Silver: Weak recovery far from previous support, bearish control remains unchanged
Spot silver closed around $54.11/oz, up only 0.4%; COMEX silver futures at $54.08, nearly flat.
Last week was a "black week" for silver, with a weekly drop exceeding 5%. The $55 level was decisively broken at the close, and the weekly large bearish candle completely engulfed the previous $57–58 consolidation range. On Monday, silver barely stabilized above $54 but is far from reaching the previous support-turned-resistance at $55. Overall, it remains in a low-level consolidation phase under bearish control.
Silver is suppressed not only by its financial attributes (dollar and interest rates) but also by its industrial attributes—the "oil price → inflation → rate hike" chain continues to exert a net bearish effect. A notable divergence in funds is that the world's largest silver ETF (SLV) increased holdings by 21.06 tons in the week of October 23 against the trend, indicating some long-term investors are willing to buy in the $53–55 range. However, amid deleveraging and trend selling, the support from these funds is limited in the short term.
Key levels: Resistance at $54.53–55.77; support at $52, a key level anchored by institutions and technicals.
🔴 Copper: Inventory "see-saw" supports price, but speculative funds are retreating
LME 3-month copper closed up 0.1% at $14,338/ton, a slight gain but holding key levels.
The core contradiction in copper prices is the structural mismatch in inventory: The U.S. plans to impose a 15% tariff on refined copper starting in 2027. Traders have pre-stocked copper in U.S. warehouses; LME U.S. warehouse copper inventory has risen to 169,475 tons, a 12.5-year high, accounting for about 62% of LME global inventory; COMEX inventory also rose to a historic high of 794,450 short tons. This portion of supply is "locked" by tariff expectations, tightening overseas available supply, which directly supports copper prices above $14,000.
Meanwhile, domestic inventory is rapidly being digested: SHFE copper inventory fell 19,606 tons (26.5%) in one week to 54,356 tons, spot premiums widened to 950 yuan/ton, and holders show clear price support intentions. Yangshan copper premium rose to $178/ton, the highest since 2014, reflecting continued Chinese import demand.
But a warning signal cannot be ignored: CFTC data shows that as of the week ending October 20, COMEX copper speculative net long positions fell 16% to 57,397 contracts, a six-month low. Copper prices remain high, but speculative funds are retreating. This price-position divergence indicates weakening momentum to chase gains and rising volatility risk at high levels.
🔥 Natural Gas: Double pressure from weather and positioning, falling to a six-month low
U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4%, with the November near-month contract at $2.526/MMBtu, the lowest close since April 24. The near-month contract has been in technical oversold territory for four consecutive trading days, down 21% over the past seven days.
The pressure comes from two converging factors. First, a significant warm-up in weather: forecasts show most of the U.S. will be warmer than usual through November 10, significantly reducing heating demand expectations. The March 2027 to April contract spread narrowed to about 6 cents, a record low, and the 12-month futures strip fell to $2.86, a 25-month low, indicating market concerns about winter supply tightness have greatly eased.
Second, record short positions: CFTC data shows speculators last week increased net short positions in NYMEX and ICE natural gas to the highest since February 2024, heavily betting on further price declines. Under the dual effects of warm winter expectations and short pressure, prices fell almost without resistance to a six-month low.
💎 Summary
Gold and silver are trading on a "breather brought by the oil price retreat," copper is trading on "structural tightness locked by tariffs in inventory," and natural gas is trading on "warm winter + short squeeze." The precious metals rebound is fragile—it depends on oil prices not surging again, while the geopolitical premium in oil prices has not truly disappeared; copper's stabilization is real, but the retreat of speculative funds suggests limited upside; natural gas's decline is a resonance of fundamentals (weather) and positioning (record shorts), lacking effective upward catalysts in the short term before weather forecasts reverse. This Wednesday's FOMC decision and Thursday's PCE data will be key tests for the fragile rebound logic in precious metals. Let me first share a market sentiment! 🧐
The money hasn't left the market; it just switched tracks! 🔄
BTC is hovering above 80,000, with a daily turnover of 27.811 billion, open interest at 53.479 billion, and turnover rate less than half! ETH is grinding around 2,340, daily turnover 21.898 billion, open interest 29.443 billion, also turning slowly! SOL is fluctuating around 101, daily turnover 3.842 billion, open interest 6.197 billion, still grinding! 😴
ZEC is different! Daily turnover 4.692 billion, surpassing SOL; open interest only 2.386 billion, nearly turning over twice a day! ⚡ Looking closer, open interest increased 3.32% daily, but dropped 0.75% in the last hour—someone pulled out early! 👀
The whole network is slow too: daily turnover 91.04 billion, open interest 139.06 billion, not even a full turnover in the whole session! In the last hour, the three major mainstream open interests barely moved; daily chart is contracting, hourly chart stabilizing first! 📉➡️📊
Mainstream funds are stuck in place, ZEC funds are turning over rapidly—this is today's divergence! 🕯️
Don't just focus on price ups and downs! The temperament of the funds has truly changed! BTC holding steady above 80,000, I’ll let the bulls breathe first; if it breaks down, I’ll continue to watch it grind slowly! For ZEC’s fast turnover, I’ll just observe and not chase!
Watch the flow of funds! It’s more comfortable than blindly guessing price moves The "Asset-Side Boom" of RWA: Who Benefits from the Scale Expansion and Profits?
RWA (Real World Asset) tokenization is advancing rapidly, but there is often a clear divergence between the expansion of underlying asset scale and the benefit feedback to token holders.
We can compare these three projects:
$ONDO: As a leading project tokenizing government bonds, its asset scale is growing rapidly. However, a rigorous review of its token mechanism shows that ONDO is currently mainly positioned for governance, and on-chain buyback and burn proposals are still under discussion; the revenue distribution mechanism of OUSG is also still being developed. The valuation support for its token at this stage relies more on expectations of asset scale expansion.
$SKY: It has a substantial quarterly net interest income exceeding $100 million, but its fund allocation strategy is conservative. Only 5% of net surplus is designated monthly for permanent burn, with the vast majority of profits retained in the treasury. This mechanism provides a very strong protocol security foundation but results in a relatively restrained token capture ratio.
$PENDLE: The mechanism transmission is more direct. It mandates that up to 80% of protocol income be used for market buybacks. It should be noted that these repurchased tokens are distributed to sPENDLE stakers rather than being fully burned immediately. Overall, its cash flow feedback path to stakers is the clearest.
Summary:
A large asset scale does not equate to strong token empowerment. Evaluating RWA projects requires clarifying the profit transmission chain. Are profits reserved as treasury reserves for future governance expectations, or are they directly fed back to token holders through hard mechanisms? #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Nvidia Rubin chip delayed, HBM4 customer certification and tuning cycles extended, Q3 still in small batch sample delivery/validation stage, large-scale volume ramp-up window market originally agreed to be in Q4. TrendForce previously noted SK Hynix HBM4 has interface synchronization issues, mass production schedule delayed; some production lines temporarily switched to producing regular DDR5, squeezing HBM4 output, and the full-year HBM4 shipment guidance has already been downgraded by multiple brokerages once.
The profit pillar this quarter remains HBM3E, with HBM4 contributing very little to revenue and gross profit growth. The market has already priced in "HBM4 is just climbing the ramp, not contributing significant profits," so no surprises are expected.
Competitor Samsung's HBM4 yield rate has first reached 80%, with Q3 HBM4 revenue planned to increase threefold quarter-over-quarter, continuously gaining share in Nvidia's supply chain; SK Hynix's HBM revenue share dropped from 58% in Q2 to 50%, and share decline during generational transition is an established trend, making it difficult to see an unexpected share increase. The narrative of "$ETH's 'floor collapsing'" is being disproved by a detail at the weekly level: after a sharp volume surge and plunge over the weekend, the price can no longer reclaim MA10, and the capital support in the $2300-2400 range has basically withdrawn according to observations. The bulls' fatigue at this moment is very much like an elderly person going downstairs—each step heavier, each rebound weaker than the last. But the truly worrisome signal is not in the candlesticks themselves, but in cross-market resonance: the US stock market opened high and closed low on the same day, with early gains swallowed immediately at the open. This "unable to rise" structure indicates that risk assets overall have not yet completed their clearing; capital is waiting for a panic-driven volume climax rather than a gentle bottoming process. Putting these two clues together, the picture becomes clear. $ETH losing MA10 combined with a large volume drop over the weekend essentially means the marginal buying retreat is faster than the selling exhaustion; meanwhile, the US stock market's high open and low close exposes the same capital's wait-and-see stance—they are not unwilling to buy, but are waiting for a lower confirmation point. The original author focuses on $2227, not arbitrarily drawn but based on the structural judgment that "if the 0.618 last defense line is broken, there is a lack of dense transaction zones below to support." This level is critical because it also corresponds to the lower edge of a previous dense chip turnover band; once broken with volume, stop-loss orders and passive reductions will form a second wave of selling pressure. Most people only focus on $ETH's own chart but overlook that its current pricing power is partly held by the US stock market. If the US stock market experiences a large volume plunge with a long lower shadow at close, that would be the classic pattern of risk asset resonance bottoming; conversely$BTC's tug-of-war around $80,000 essentially reflects a balance among "macro interest rate pressure + ETF single buyer support + low on-chain supply." There is dense buy order and long-term holder support below $79,000, while above $81,500–82,000 faces resistance from the ETF cost basis and moving averages. This week's FOMC post-meeting guidance and tech giant earnings reports are the most direct catalysts to break the current deadlock; the gains or losses at the $78,000 and $82,000 levels are the clearest technical markers to judge short-term direction. Until the direction is clear, the market remains in a neutral zone of high uncertainty and low odds. $ETH $ZEC
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 Looking at Bitcoin this week, the easiest mistake to make is to see a piece of news and immediately draw conclusions about the market. When ETFs have outflows, people think institutions have all fled; when listed companies still hold large amounts of Bitcoin, people think someone must be buying below; when the Federal Reserve doesn't start a new round of rate hikes, people prematurely celebrate that funds are coming back. These pieces of news are worth paying attention to, but you first need to clarify: what exactly have they changed? Let's start with ETFs. A set of data is quite interesting. According to Farside statistics, the US Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $773.5 million over two trading days on October 22 and 23. The amount is indeed significant. But if you extend the timeframe to October 19 to 23, the entire week still saw a net inflow of about $301.2 million. In other words, the inflows earlier in the week exceeded the outflows in the last two days. When checking, some fund data for October 26 had not yet been completed, so the temporary totals in the table cannot be taken as final results. What is worth noting here is the persistence of buying. Willingness to buy earlier, followed by large redemptions later, indicates fluctuating fund sentiment. Telling the story only with the last two days would make the whole week's situation seem overly pessimistic; telling it only with the week's net inflow would ignore the weakening in the latter half of the week. My understanding is that the ETF line needs to prove again whether buying can be sustained. A single day of inflow only shows that there was net buying on that day. Continuous inflows, along with gradually rising prices, are what truly warrant raising expectations. Now, about the Federal Reserve. This meeting is scheduled for October 27 to 28 US time. Converted to Beijing time In the disclosed positions of Maji Big Brother this time, the BTC short position has an unrealized profit of 1,021,700 U, while the ETH long and HYPE short positions are both at unrealized losses. What is worth noting is not how much a single trade earned, but whether the price profit and loss and funding fees of the three positions can truly complement each other. 📊 Breakdown of the three positions: BTC: 40X full position short, holding -243.96 BTC, position value 19,488,400 U, opening price 84,070.0 U. Unrealized profit +1,021,700 U, funding fee income +124,800 U; margin 487,200 U, disclosed liquidation price is 102,380.06. ETH: 25X full position long, holding 7,223.81 ETH, position value 16,646,600 U, opening price 2,500.18 U. Unrealized loss -1,414,300 U, plus funding fee expense -61,200 U; margin 665,900 U, disclosed liquidation price is 1,519.39. HYPE: 5X full position short, holding -268,300 HYPE, position value 20,791,600 U, opening price 66.2399 U. Unrealized loss -3,019,400 U, funding fee income +1,097,600 U; margin 4,158,300 U, disclosed liquidation price is 96.32. 💡 My view. The biggest contrast in this combination is that the HYPE position with the lowest leverage corresponds to the largest nominal position and unrealized loss. Risk assessment should not only focus on 40X, 25X, 5X but also consider them together ETF funds flow like tides, frequent ins and outs are normal🌊. Just looking at a single day's inflow and calling it a bull return, or outflow and calling it a crash, easily gets swayed by emotions. Right now, it looks more like a choppy shakeout rather than a simple trend signal.
The short-term sentiment is bearish, and there may still be a relatively obvious pullback ahead⚠️. The key focus is the Federal Reserve's rate decision: if the tone is hawkish and rate cut expectations cool down, combined with a weak US stock market, Bitcoin's downside risk will increase over the next week.
$BTC rebounds are repeatedly blocked, volume is shrinking, and resistance above is clear; there is support around 76,000 but it's moderate, so don't take it lightly📉.
$ETH is weaker, falling faster and rising slower; once BTC is under pressure, ETH often gets hit first😣.
Strategically, consider the rate decision results together with market strength and weakness, don't rely solely on news or candlesticks. A trader's core ability is to make fast, accurate, and decisive decisions amid uncertainty⚡.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ ETF is withdrawing, whales are accumulating — BTC below $80,000, money is rotating, not exiting
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about $770 million combined on Thursday and Friday last week, but on-chain activity on another level hasn't stopped: since October 1, 40 new wallets have cumulatively withdrawn 9,458 BTC from market maker Wintermute, worth about $770 million. While ETFs are retreating on paper, large chips are migrating from high-liquidity addresses to long-term custody.
$BTC is around 79,800, repeatedly tugging around 80,000. ETF outflows and whale withdrawals are moving in opposite directions; there are about $73 million buy orders above 79,300, and concentrated sell orders near 81,000.
$ETH is around 2,306. Arthur Hayes liquidated 6,400 ETH, but BitMine increased holdings by 10,452 ETH during the same period, raising its position to about 6.05 million ETH, accounting for 4.95% of supply, with about 85% staked.
$SOL is around 101. SOL ETF has had nine consecutive trading days of outflows, with the price falling from about $121 at the start of the month to near 100.
In short: the probability of the FOMC holding steady is over 90%, but PCE data and tech giant earnings reports follow closely. For these three coins, money hasn't left the market; it's just changing places — ETFs are withdrawing, whales are accumulating, and staking is locking.
For record-keeping only, not investment advice.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The moment I opened my eyes, the market was so weak it was speechless 😩, BTC dropped back below 80,000, and the three major mainstream coins all weakened, with ETH and SOL falling over 1%.
But right at the worst moment in the market, I checked the number of large holders, and the whole picture changed—the price was weak, but the positions didn’t follow suit.
The overall network long-short ratio is 50.03 to 49.97, basically even, but the large account holder ratio is 2.36, one exchange’s count is 2.22, and another count is 2.25, all heavily skewed to the long side. The large account position ratio of 1.95 also stands on the bullish side 🤔.
One-hour position short-term activity is quiet; BTC only has a slight positive 0.10%, ETH shrank by 0.05%, SOL shrank by 0.16%, ZEC shrank by 0.41%. No one is taking over short-term, but this precisely shows the drop isn’t due to positions running away, but short-term waiting for data.
Only ZEC is still gaining, the only one not weakening in the whole market. Short-term positions are pulling back, but long-term positions haven’t collapsed. This kind of divergence is even more worth watching.
Tonight, durable goods orders and confidence data will be released, and the FOMC meeting is also happening in these two days. The market is weak waiting for data, which isn’t surprising; what’s surprising is that large holders have already shown their stance.
Weak price doesn’t mean weak positions. When large holder numbers are heavily one-sided, I don’t chase shorts; I keep half my position bullish first. I neither chase shorts nor go all in 💪. Think about it carefully: the price is weak, but the positions aren’t. The rest is left to tonight’s data to show. First, have some breakfast and let the market speak for itself.