Orbit Post Sitemap
Midterm elections vote today, the last polling stations close at noon Beijing time, results start coming out in the afternoon.
Polls say Democrats have a 90% chance of taking the House, and 60-70% for the Senate.
Trump's approval rating is 30%, the lowest before a midterm election since 1946.
In the 62 most fiercely contested districts, 41 Republican candidates have actively distanced themselves from him, some even removing photos with him from their campaign websites.
More troublesome is the CLARITY Act. It was already stuck in Congress and didn't pass; with the change in both chambers, probably no one will even bring it up next year.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Can't stop laughing, I found another piece of evidence that AI has no bubble.
The perspective from the US stock market guru is super interesting: Walmart and many consumer sector stocks have price-to-earnings ratios clearly higher than AI stocks. So where exactly is the bubble?
Brother Feng put the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 on a logarithmic scale, drawing a single line, which clearly shows the difference!
A logarithmic scale assumes growth is exponential; after taking the log,
removing the exponential effect, stock prices in 2000 were still accelerating upward, which really was a bubble.
But currently, after removing the exponential effect, growth is basically linear.
So, the US stock market is indeed growing exponentially now, but does that necessarily mean there is a bubble?
Also, during the 2000 internet bubble, the Nasdaq 100 clearly outperformed the S&P 500. During the 2008 real estate bubble, the S&P 500 outperformed the Nasdaq 100.
Currently, the gap between these two indices is relatively small. Actually, in 2021, there was a period when the Nasdaq 100's gains exceeded the S&P 500, and there was indeed a small bubble then, but with interest rate hikes, the rally returned to normal.
So, is there a bubble in AI now?
$QQQ $SPX The 1 million prize pool is not for everyone
This time, Flash Earn splits the prize pool into two parts.
$BTC pool is 410,000, $ETH pool is 590,000.
How this number is calculated:
Rewards are calculated hourly, then based on your effective subscription share.
The more you subscribe and the longer you hold, the larger your share.
The total prize pool is the upper limit, not a guaranteed minimum.
Common misunderstandings:
The pre-subscription period only gives simple coin interest.
Airdrops start counting from 3:00 PM on November 3.
Early registration does not mean early airdrop receipt.
What really determines earnings is the total subscription volume in the pool during those days.
The more people, the thinner the hourly share.
This round is most likely a race to subscribe.
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧
#$BTC $ETH $JTO
Liquid staking changes how capital operates within the Solana ecosystem. Jito's role in this sector makes its economic model particularly interesting. The important distinction is between capital deposited into staking products and actual demand for the JTO token. Ecosystem growth does not automatically translate into proportional token value. Understanding that relationship is essential when evaluating its fundamentals.☀️ 大叔早报｜11.04
🪙 Crypto｜BTC反弹回到7.7万美元上方，ETF流出仍是隐忧 BTC回升至 77,500美元附近，24小时区间76,270—78,017美元。昨天一度逼近76,000美元关口，今天随风险资产反弹。 但资金面还没跟上：美国现货BTC ETF在10月30日净流出约6.43亿美元，11月2日再流出约3.99亿美元，两日合计超过10亿美元。 大叔观察： 价格反弹不等于资金回流。BTC短线跟随美股风险偏好修复，但ETF连续流出说明机构买盘尚未确认回归。7.8万美元附近先看压力，别把反弹直接当反转。 🇺🇸 美股隔夜｜标普止步三连跌，AMD财报给AI交易补了一剂强心针 道指 -0.38%报51,786.72点，标普 +0.36%报7,568.92点，纳指 +0.83%报25,372.01点。费城半导体指数上涨2.64%，芯片股普遍反弹。 真正值得关注的是AMD：第三季度营收 133.77亿美元，同比增长45%，数据中心营收 85.46亿美元，同比增长97%；公司给出的下一季度营收指引也高于市场预期，股价盘后上涨约8%。苹果则下跌约1.9%。 大叔观察： 昨[KOSPI Opens with a 2.4% Rebound: Are Chip Stocks Recovering or Reversing?]
On Tuesday, the KOSPI fell 3.59%, with foreign investors net selling about 1.5 trillion KRW. Samsung $SAMSUNG and SK Hynix $SKHY dropped over 4% and 5%, respectively; overnight, U.S. chip stocks warmed up, and AMD's earnings report and Q4 guidance exceeded expectations, fueling a rebound in memory stocks. On Wednesday's open, KOSPI rose 2.43%, Hynix gained 4.8%, and Samsung rose 3.6%, which looks more like an emotional recovery after a sharp drop.
This rebound is supported by industry fundamentals: AI servers continue to drive demand for high-bandwidth memory, Samsung posted record operating profits last quarter, and the memory market's strength is not just talk.
However, the Korean index is highly concentrated in two chip giants; when chips rebound, the index appears very strong. The previous day's foreign selling also reminds us that a single-day high open has not yet repaired the funding gap. What can be confirmed now is that the U.S. chip stock recovery has triggered a bounce, but whether it will become a trend depends on whether foreign investors return to buy."There is no evidence yet of forced selling of Bitcoin," this sentence is what I care about most. I don't play with high leverage, and when I see credit tightening, I don't immediately translate it as "the market is about to crash." The Federal Reserve's survey this time says bank loan approvals are tightening and non-bank lending demand is increasing, but a tighter financing environment and actual sell-offs are two different things.
My judgment is: this is a warning on the funding side, not evidence of long-term value impairment. When borrowing becomes harder, the first to suffer are often those who rely on rollovers and leverage to maintain positions; for those holding spot long-term, it's more important now to distinguish between financing pressure and changes in the asset itself, and not to mix the two accounts.
With increased non-bank demand, I am also not in a hurry to interpret it as abundant funds. My speculation is that if borrowers are just finding money elsewhere at higher costs, then the pressure may have just shifted location and not disappeared. Whether there is actual evidence of passive selling later on carries more weight than the tension caused by the headline.
As for me, I hold and do not move, but I also won't take "no evidence yet" as "it won't happen in the future." Spot can wait slowly, but leverage may not give people that leeway. Friends holding $BTC long-term, will you treat this news as short-term noise or start paying more attention to signs of passive selling?#Скоро Circle report, can the growth of stablecoins bring income? Circle (CRCL / CRCLx) ahead of the report at the end of 2026: explosive growth in USDC issuance guarantees strong revenue ($780M+ est.), but net profit remains limited. Income from reserves in treasuries grows along with coin volumes, however, fees to partners (like Coinbase) eat up most of the margin. The asset acts as a reliable fintech proxy with a solid foundation, but high sensitivity to Fed rate changes.Circle将在11月4日美股盘前公布三季报。市场目前预期收入约7.9亿至8亿美元，EPS大致在0.36至0.40美元， 我对这份财报的判断是：总收入接近预期的可能性较大，报表利润有机会得到Arc代币预售收入确认的提振，但经常性盈利还未必足够强。财报后市场愿意给它多少估值，很大程度上取决于管理层能否解释清楚，USDC网络扩张之后，Circle最终能留下多少钱。 扣除渠道成本后收入RLDC 此前聊Circle，重点一直是它正在建立一张越来越完整的美元结算网络。交易所提供流动性和交易场景，银行负责美元出入金，支付合作伙伴把USDC接到企业和商户，Arc与CPN继续向底层结算和支付服务延伸。 这条路径仍然成立，当然市场还会还得追问一句：网络价值的增长，有多少能够变成上市公司的持续利润？ 从二季度看，这个问题已经很具体了。Circle总收入约7.01亿美元，其中储备收入约6.68亿美元，占比约95%。分销、交易及其他相关成本约4.12亿美元，扣完之后留下约2.89亿美元，再扣经营费用。 所以，USDC流通量增长只是分析的起点。资金放在哪个平台，合作伙伴拿走多少收益，会显著影响同样一美元USDCOverview of Diverging Bull and Bear Sentiments! Large Holders and Retail Investors Are Completely Opposite in Thinking
Latest snapshot of bull and bear funds shows an interesting split in BTC, ETH, and CORE position sentiments. Large holders are concentrated on the bullish side, while retail investors show full divergence.
📊 Data Breakdown
✅ BTC
Overall bull-bear ratio: 1.0589 | Long positions 51.43%, Short positions 48.57%
Large holder data leans bullish, OKX and large holder position bull-bear ratios all rising; price slightly pulled back, short-term consolidation.
✅ ETH
Overall bull-bear ratio: 0.9596 | Long positions 48.97%, Short positions 51.03%
Overall bears slightly dominate, but top large holder accounts remain mainly bullish, creating a clear contrast.
✅ CORE
Overall bull-bear ratio: 0.9869 | Long positions 49.67%, Short positions 50.33%
Short positions slightly lead, OKX accounts have a high proportion of longs; long-term decline is significant, and even with positive news, sentiment remains weak.
Key Point
The biggest feature of the current market: ordinary accounts swing between bulls and bears, but top large holders cluster on the bullish side.
BTC overall shows a slight bullish sentiment advantage; ETH and CORE retail investors lean more bearish, while large holders are positioning oppositely. This sentiment split often triggers back-and-forth order sweeps, increasing the probability of a choppy market. Coupled with ongoing external news disturbances, the market is prone to rapid spikes.$BTC U.S. Midterm Election Voting Day (11/3 UTC), BTC's daily volatility was only 2.19%, smaller than the past 30-day average of 2.46%.
· 11/3 Low 76,386, High 78,066, Close 77,454, Daily +0.84%
· Today until 08:45 (Taipei) volatility only 0.91%, current price about 76,980
· Counting is still ongoing, pre-race DDHQ model gave Democrats an 84% chance to take the House, result already priced in by the market
· For comparison: 10/29 day after rate decision volatility was 4.96%
Yesterday said "Midterm elections are just noise for BTC," first day's answer: correct.
Below looks at 76,265 (October low), above looks at 78,866 (11/2 high). The real volatility window is Friday 21:30 Nonfarm Payrolls.
The election changes Congress, not BTC liquidity.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX BTC-USDT daily (UTC), DDHQ#U.S. Midterms are coming, which results are worth watching? $DOGE DOGE has dropped to around 0.074, yet the long-short ratio still skyrocketed above 5.
The whales have long since pulled out clean, leaving retail investors to stubbornly hold and catch the falling knives. With the current market, the leverage at the bottom is basically lining up to get wiped out.
The market makers are drooling over this pile of long liquidation liquidity. If they don’t come down hard to wipe out these stubborn holders, there’s no way to see a bottom.
#DOGE
$DOGE
👇#Strategy buyback scale exceeds coin purchase by three times, treasury strategy shifts? $ETH
Last week, Strategy spent $65.5 million to increase its holdings by 811 BTC (average price about $80,846), marking the largest single-week coin purchase since September, with total holdings rising to 849,300 BTC. However, what attracted more market attention was its simultaneous use of $208 million to repurchase preferred shares, with the buyback amount more than three times the coin purchase scale.
This is not a shift to hoarding coins, but a treasury strategy transition from aggressive expansion to refined operation. Previously, the arbitrage model of "issuing shares to buy coins" declined in cost-effectiveness as the stock price premium narrowed. Repurchasing discounted preferred shares can optimize the balance sheet and stabilize the coin content per share. Essentially, this is a risk control upgrade, and the long-term direction of hoarding coins remains unchanged.
Currently, strategies of crypto treasury enterprises are clearly diverging: Strive is financing BTC accumulation through preferred shares with a 15% annual interest; BitMine continues to increase ETH holdings, with total holdings reaching 6.06 million; Metaplanet is repaying debt early and raising its coin purchase budget to $212 million. Institutions are not coordinating to pump the market but are independently allocating based on their own cost structures.
On the market front, BTC remains pressured at the 20-day moving average (about $80,260), and a breakout is needed before a trend reversal can be confirmed; ETH lacks an independent mainline and overall still follows BTC fluctuations. Institutional accumulation does not directly equate to immediate price increases. $BTC Election night has passed, BTC is still around 77,000: First, look at three things
Last night was the US midterm election voting day. BTC is $77,339 tonight, down 0.23%; ETH is $2,286, up 0.54%. The divergence continues: one remains under pressure, the other turns positive, each moving in its own direction.
As results gradually come out, someone in Orbit has dug up history: BTC fell after the last three midterm elections — down 48% in 2014, 50% in 2018, and 16% in 2022; the prediction market gives the Democrats a 95% chance of taking the House.
I’m not in a hurry to treat these three samples as a rule. First, the sample size is only three, which is too small; second, the seats lost each time differ — in 2014 both chambers were lost, while in the last two only the House was lost; third, the drop ranges from 16% to 50%, such a wide span that averaging is meaningless.
Looking at the results, taking them directly as direction means treating election day as a trading signal. Before the price moves, first look at the divergence itself, don’t rush to change your judgment.
After election night, do you first look at the results or the price?
(Personal record, not investment advice. Coin prices quoted from Orbit’s topic page tonight; historical performance after the last three elections and prediction market probabilities quoted from a post in Orbit’s information feed tonight, with attribution noted when reposted. No price points, no calls, no position cards. Contract trading is extremely risky, leverage responsibly.)Strategy delivered a conflicted treasury report last week
From October 26 to November 1, the company used proceeds from common stock financing to buy 811 $BTC, about $65.5 million, at an average price of about 80,846, raising total holdings to 849,327 coins
However, in the same week, it spent about $208.2 million in cash to repurchase STRC preferred shares, more than three times the amount spent on buying coins, with cash in USD dropping from about $242.4 million to about $132.7 million
Institutions haven't been supportive either
The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $27.4 million on November 3, marking three consecutive days of withdrawals, though this is much smaller than the roughly $398.6 million outflow on November 2, indicating a slowing outflow pace
My view is that Strategy seems more focused on repairing the preferred stock liability structure this week, rather than fully increasing positions
In the short term, don't treat this as a bullish trend signal
On the market, $BTC in the Asian morning session fell from around 78,000 to about 77,000, with a 24-hour high/low of approximately 78,049/76,360, and a funding rate of about 0.01%
Short term support is first seen at 76,800, with several probes near this level this morning; breaking it means reducing positions
Resistance above is at 77,500 first; holding above that targets 78,000
Stop loss is set below 76,500, with a target initially at 78,000, keeping position size small as usual #Strategy回购规模超购币三倍，财库策略转向？ $BTC and $ETH both surged with high volume last night, then fell back together before dawn.
BTC had the largest volume in recent times on the 4-hour candle at 8 PM last night, rebounded to just below the previous high and then stopped moving. After that, it gradually declined with shrinking volume, now hovering just below the 77 round number, one step away from the previous low.
ETH is even more typical: at the same time, a volume spike two to three times the usual pulsed above the previous high. I exited my position during that candle yesterday, but before dawn, three shrinking volume bearish candles completely gave back the entire pulse.
The volume-price structure of both coins is exactly the same now. The surge volumes are not small, but none of the candles held the price; the selling pressure above was genuinely hammered out.
Interestingly, looking at the order book, BTC's sell orders are three times thicker than buy orders, while ETH is the opposite with buy orders more than four times thicker. Both still have positive funding rates, and no bulls have withdrawn. BTC is close to the previous low, and ETH is near the starting point of last night's pulse. #US October Nonfarm Preview: Employment Growth May Influence December Rate Hike Expectations
#US October Nonfarm Released: Is There Still a Chance for a Rate Cut? US Stock Market Analysis: Employment Data Pushes Gold Down, Chips Supported by AI
Voting is underway on Election Day, and the market is honestly split. The Dow Jones fell 0.38%, the Nasdaq rose 0.83%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.36%, stopping a three-day losing streak, but all gains were in chips and AI — the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 2.64%, AMD after-hours +7.6%, while Apple was hit by storage cost warnings, down 1.9%.
The real macro protagonist is the bond market.
September JOLTS job openings were 7.523 million, above the expected 7.1 million, and factory orders rose 1.8% month-over-month, also beating expectations. Once the data came out, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to 4.948%, approaching the 5% psychological level, the dollar rose, gold was pushed down near 3920, and safe-haven metals bowed under the pressure of "higher rates for longer."
The transmission chain is clear: strong employment data → yields rise → gold under pressure, growth stock valuations compressed → capital only dares to flow into AI hardware with earnings backing. VIX closed at 20.8; panic has eased but not fully.
This is not a full risk-on; it’s selective buying. Hedge funds are still adding shorts amid the AI rebound, so don’t mistake a repair for a reversal; wait to see how the open holds.$ETH US and Iran reportedly made mutual concessions, $ETH surged to 2,300 but only held for a few minutes. The first to get hit by this spike were two old acquaintances on Hyperliquid.
At 21:33, ETH touched 2,309.4 on Hyperliquid, BTC touched 77,864. AguilaTrades cut 100 BTC short positions above 77,800 between 21:31–21:32, losing about $35,000.
Three minutes after cutting, he shorted again. By 22:00, the short position was 250.74 BTC, 25 more than before the cut, 40x leverage, average price 77,482, liquidation price 78,762.7, less than $1,400 from the current price.
Maji stood on the other side. Since 20:23, he added 375 ETH long positions, now 3,100 ETH at 25x leverage, liquidation price raised from 2,227 in the afternoon to 2,240, only about $47 from the current price.
One just got hurt but added shorts, the other keeps adding longs as the price rises. Tonight, geopolitical news can flip at any moment; no matter which way it flips, someone will get hit first.
If the news reverses again, who do you think will blow up first: the short seller Aguila or the long holder Maji?#OKX, ICE, and Trade.xyz join forces to promote perpetual contracts entering the US compliant market
The US compliance for perpetual contracts is no longer stuck at the regulatory hurdle. On 11/3, CFTC Chairman Selig issued a statement that single-stock perpetuals can be listed on CFTC-registered exchanges starting that day, provided the exchange has also filed a securities futures notice registration with the SEC. I just finished reading the original statement on the official website.
For those holding HYPE and OKB, this means US retail investors now have an onshore entry point for perpetual buying. However, according to the plan Star mentioned on 10/29, after ICE gets approval, it will have to establish a separate trading and clearing system. The funds will first go to ICE, and how much will flow onto the chain is still uncertain.
On May 29 this year, CFTC first approved Kalshi's BTC perpetual, and now it has expanded from crypto to single stocks, making two steps in half a year. The statement did not mention ICE, Trade.xyz, or OKX by name; the agreement among the three states "after approval," so the remaining step still needs to be obtained by themselves.
Going forward, keep an eye on which exchange posts single-stock perpetuals first on the CFTC website and whether ICE submits materials. If by the end of the year none of the three announces any approval progress, I will admit that I was too optimistic about the regulatory hurdle loosening.Market share dropped to 59.29%, indicating that currently risk-averse funds are not clustering around $BTC
Crypto, stocks, and gold $XAU are all declining on three fronts, liquidity is down, what will the market use to rise?
It depends on the election news,
A piece of good news will cause a rebound,
But a piece of bad news,
Is like a waterfall plunging down three thousand feet.#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
Circle (CRCL) will release its Q3 2026 earnings report before the market opens on November 4, with market attention focused on whether the growth of its stablecoin USDC can effectively translate into actual profits.
As the circulation scale of USDC expands and payment services develop, the company's revenue and profitability are expected to be reflected. Forecast markets show that 67% of participants believe its Q3 performance will exceed expectations.
However, there are concerns behind the growth. Although USDC circulation is increasing, its profitability heavily depends on the interest rates of reserve assets. In the context of a declining interest rate environment, the company faces pressure from reduced reserve income. Additionally, distribution and transaction costs incurred to expand business payments may also erode its profit margins.
The core focus of this earnings report is whether Circle can demonstrate its ability to achieve stable revenue growth by overcoming the challenges of declining interest rates and distribution costs while continuing to expand the scale of USDC.$UNI The UNI long-short ratio has directly shot up to 2.48, the whole market is full of stubborn bulls holding long positions.
The locked value in the on-chain V4 pool has been drained by 29% in just one week.
Big players aren't buying at all; they're quietly moving their funds back to their wallets.
The pool's base has already been drained, and the market is crowded with high-leverage long positions.
Just a small shakeout of a few cents will turn these bulls into ready fuel for a liquidation stampede.
Holding long stubbornly at this level is purely handing over principal to the shorts.
#UNI
$UNI
👇#PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌
Palantir delivered its strongest Q3 performance since going public, yet its stock price weakened against the trend. The core issue is the expectation gap between "explosive current earnings and slowing forward indicators."
The fundamentals are nearly flawless: Q3 total revenue was $2.313 billion, up 96% year-over-year, significantly beating market expectations; U.S. commercial revenue was $984 million, up 148% year-over-year, surpassing government business for the first time in a single quarter. AI commercialization shifted from government-funded to enterprise-paid, marking a clear structural inflection point. GAAP net profit was $1.128 billion, EPS of $0.44 exceeded expectations, and the full-year revenue guidance was simultaneously raised to $8.53 billion.
What weighed on the stock price were the forward signals: total new contract value for the quarter increased only 6% year-over-year, U.S. commercial new contracts rose 11%, a sharp slowdown from the previous quarter's 153% growth; remaining performance obligations were flat quarter-over-quarter, the first time since Q1 2023. The market worries that the current high growth is driven by fulfillment of existing contracts, casting doubt on future incremental growth. The company explained this as contract durations shortening, but institutional opinions remain divided. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $233.
In high-valuation sectors, trading is never about current earnings but about growth sustainability. Whether the remaining contract value rebounds next quarter is the watershed test of growth quality.
$PLTR BTC, ETH, and SOL all rose simultaneously in this set of 24-hour contract data, but the capital structure is skewed toward shorts, forming a fairly obvious "price rises while positions lean short" phenomenon. The coexistence of price increases and short-side leadership indicates that the long-short divergence has not yet disappeared. BTC's current price is 77883.9, up 1.4%. Long positions amount to 19.61 billion, accounting for 49.32%; short positions amount to 20.15 billion, accounting for 50.68%. Shorts slightly exceed longs, temporarily resembling a narrow-range contest rather than a one-sided bet. ETH rose 1.82%, currently priced at 2291.74. Long positions total 11.65 billion, accounting for 49.96%; short positions total 11.66 billion, accounting for 50.04%. Both sides are nearly equal, and the price increase has not yet brought a clear advantage to long capital. SOL performed relatively stronger, up 2.18%, priced at 93.62. However, its long positions are only 2.13 billion, accounting for 47.10%, while short positions reach 2.39 billion, accounting for 52.90%, the largest short-side proportion difference among the three. 💡 My view. What this data confirms is: all three assets have seen price increases, but contract capital has not simultaneously shifted to longs. Some capital may continue to hold shorts during the rebound; if prices continue to rise, these short positions will face greater volatility pressure. However, based solely on the long-short ratio, one cannot directly infer a definite subsequent rise or fall. What is more worth watching next is whether the short-side proportion continues to expand as prices rise, and when the capital structure begins to tilt toward longs. If pricesThe hottest phrase in the group these days is "Binance is about to be drained."
I checked the data: BTC balance dropped from 732,000 to 711,000, a decrease of 21,100, accounting for less than 3% of the total balance. Ninety-seven out of a hundred people didn't move at all, and the remaining three just relocated.
After the withdrawal channel, which was closed for several days, reopened, the accumulated demand surged out all at once, looking like a stampede. $BTC is still the same $BTC, $BNB still accounts for 18% of reserves, $ETH accounts for 6%, with $139.7 billion lying there.
What might really be drained is some people's judgment.Attention! There may be an interesting pattern in the historical trend of the US midterm elections and $BTC.
Looking back at the performance after the last three midterm elections:
📍2014: Bottomed about 71 days later, price around $170.
📍2018: Bottomed about 39 days later, price around $3,200.
📍2022: Bottomed about 13 days later, price around $15,500.
From these lows, the subsequent gains were:
🚀 $170 → $20,000, over 100 times
🚀 $3,200 → $64,000, about 20 times
🚀 $15,500 → $126,000, about 8 times
An interesting detail: the time to bottom shortened each time, being 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days respectively.
Historically, the times when the market is most panicked often also nurture the opportunity for the next cycle.
Will $BTC repeat this pattern this time? 👀
$BTC On November 1st, Binance reopened withdrawals, and within two days, the exchange's BTC balance dropped from 732,000 to 711,000, a net outflow of 21,100 BTC. Over twenty thousand bitcoins leaving a single platform at once is a significant volume.
But the same data also states: this 21,100 accounts for less than 3% of the total balance. 97% of BTC didn’t move at all. The story isn’t about a run, but a shift — withdrawal demands that were stuck for days were released in a concentrated manner, moving funds from one address to another without leaving the market.
What’s even more worth noting is the remaining holdings. Binance still holds $139.7 billion in on-chain assets, with $BTC and USDT together making up nearly 60%, $BNB accounting for 18%, and $ETH 6%. This structure indicates two things: the reserve quality is highly dependent on Bitcoin’s price, so when BTC falls, the reserve size shrinks accordingly; and the platform’s own asset $BNB, which makes up nearly one-fifth, is both a confidence anchor and the most vulnerable part.
Putting these two points together, the short-term outflow of 21,100 BTC reflects sentiment, while the long-term safety margin is determined by the composition of that $139.7 billion reserve. What matters is not how many coins left today, but how much of the reserve is made up of highly volatile assets.
Another point to consider: if the next withdrawal peak coincides with a BTC price drop, the reserve measured in dollars will shrink simultaneously. At that time, when you see the balance decrease again, can you tell if people are fleeing or if it’s just the price falling?[AI infrastructure collectively rebounded after yesterday's drop, with quite a wide range of gains]
The Dow Jones fell 0.38%, the Nasdaq $QQQ rose 0.83%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose about 2.6%; this is not a market-wide risk-on move, as funds clearly returned to AI-related assets. Optical communications, storage, and major chips mostly gained between 2% and 8%, while Neocloud and mining companies like CIFR, HUT, and WULF surged double digits, resembling a high-beta rebound after recent sell-offs, with HUT also adding trading expectations ahead of its earnings report.
However, a stock price rebound is not the same as fundamental improvement. CIFR's Q3 revenue dropped about 63% year-over-year to $26.7 million, with data center business just beginning to contribute revenue; book profits mainly came from non-cash gains on warrants, and operations remain unprofitable. Funds are betting on their future ability to turn power and data centers into AI leasing income, which naturally causes more volatility than chip stocks.
This big bullish candle now repairs sentiment and positioning but has not yet solved industry issues like financing, construction progress, and customer realization. If future earnings reports can convert contracted capacity into actual revenue, the rebound will have fundamental support; otherwise, double-digit gains may just be a sharp bounce after a deep decline. The Bitcoin four-year cycle perfectly coincides with the US midterm elections, which is quite a coincidence.
Every midterm election occurs at the end of a bear market; this was the case in 2014, 2018, and 2022. After the midterm elections, there is another sharp drop, the market bottoms out, and the bull market begins.
The difference is that each bottoming time has been earlier $BTC 🔥 Attention! There might be an interesting pattern between the US midterm elections and the historical trend of $BTC.
Looking back at the performance after the last three midterm elections:
📍2014: Bottomed about 71 days later, price around $170.
📍2018: Bottomed about 39 days later, price around $3,200.
📍2022: Bottomed about 13 days later, price around $15,500.
From these lows, the subsequent gains were:
🚀 $170 → $20,000, over 100 times
🚀 $3,200 → $64,000, about 20 times
🚀#d#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
US stock market news analysis: AMD surged 7% after hours, but the top trading volume was surprisingly the declining Apple
Last night, the Nasdaq rose 0.83%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.64%, looking lively, but don’t get carried away—this is a rebound after consecutive declines, not a trend reversal.
The most interesting is the trading volume leaderboard.
Number one is Apple, down 1.9%, with a trading volume of 20.2 billion. The new CEO’s debut showed record revenue and profit, but storage chip price hikes directly suppressed next quarter’s gross margin, so capital voted with their feet.
Nvidia is second, up 2.29%, with a trading volume of 18.5 billion. The reason is simple: Marvell’s $100 billion acquisition of Lumentum, personally approved by Jensen Huang, continuing the optical communication narrative.
Micron is third, up 2.58%, with a trading volume of 17.5 billion. The storage price hike is positive for Micron but negative for Apple—same event, two sides of the trade.
The real news star is AMD.
The stock rose 3.65%, with a trading volume of 14.9 billion, and after hours surged another 7% due to Q4 revenue guidance of 17 billion, crushing the expected 16.3 billion, with data center revenue nearly doubling year-over-year.
Oracle ranks fifth, up 5.85%, but essentially it’s an 11% discounted share placement raising 9.9 billion to cover AI capital expenditures. The rise is due to “financing landing,” not “fundamentals improving.”
Money is coming back, but selectively. Apple is held down by storage price hikes, while AMD and Nvidia continue to push the AI narrative upward The market continues to weaken, but there is still considerable capital entering to buy the dip; this kind of divergence in the market is worth noting. Bitcoin ($BTC) fell 1.04% in the past 24 hours, with a price of 76,938, ranging between 76,700 and 78,867, a buy-sell ratio of 2.52, and open interest contracts at 2.57 billion. The high buy-sell ratio indicates that the number of buyers far exceeds sellers, yet the price keeps declining. In the past four hours, the total liquidation volume was 20.583 million, the vast majority of which were long positions amounting to 20.44 million. Every time the price dips to 76,700, it attracts buying interest, but rebound attempts are suppressed, and dip-buying longs continuously face liquidation. Ethereum ($ETH) shows a similar trend, down 0.43%, quoted at 2,249, ranging from 2,237 to 2,318, with a buy-sell ratio of 2.38, open interest contracts at 1.436 billion, and four-hour long liquidations of 7.92 million. The 2,237 level is the current key support; if broken, the downside space will further open. SOL ($SOL) is the weakest among the three, down 2.79%, priced at 91.31, fluctuating between 90.87 and 95.89, with a buy-sell ratio as high as 3.51, open interest contracts at 330 million, and four-hour long liquidations of 4.044 million. The weakest coin is attracting the most aggressive dip-buying funds, which is not a reversal signal. The essence of the market is continuous rotation of longs: longs just liquidated are quickly replaced by new longs, maintaining a high buy-sell ratio, which does not represent genuine buying support. SubsequentlySPCX's double top broke the neckline this morning.
At 23:00, using 211,992 units to push $SPCX to 142.99, the highest of the day, which wasn't touched again for ten hours. At 05:00, spent 48,917 units to rush to 142.81, and at 06:00, only 13,202 units brushed 142.73, both times missing by 0.18.
At 07:00, a single 25,410-unit move, only one-eighth of the 23:00 volume, cut from 142.62 down to 141.14, closing at 141.19, swallowing all activity in two hours. The 200,000 units above couldn't push it, but 25,000 units below smashed through.
At 08:00, it directly pierced down to 139.93, breaking the neckline at 140.86 between the two tops, current price 139.95 close to MA20 at 139.72.
+1.60%, 24h range 142.99 / 136.70.
The pattern is not a signal until the neckline is broken. Now waiting for a pullback: if the rebound at 140.6~141.0 fails to reclaim 140.86, go short with a stop loss at 141.60, target 138.73, break level 136.70, risk/reward 2.6/5.1.
If the 1H candle closes with volume above 142.99 (≥40,000 units), buy on a pullback to 142.3~142.6, stop loss 141.60, target 145.12, risk/reward 3.4.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)- The 3K intraday low has been pulled back, the first layer of support is basically holding, but what really concerns me is not this lower shadow. On the derivatives side, has the "ETF bleed" already been traded out in advance? Last night while watching the market, I kept an eye on two things: BTC rebounded from around 76.3K, with 78.5K–80K as the first recovery zone, and above that 81.8K–82K is a more critical level; below, 75K–74K is the second buffer zone. The other thing is the completed US spot ETF data from November 2, showing BTC net outflow of $398.6 million and ETH net outflow of $139.7 million. The numbers are not small, but the price did not continue to collapse, indicating that some of the selling pressure on the spot side has already been priced in by the derivatives market in advance. My own feeling is that this looks more like a self-repair on the leverage side rather than a sudden return of spot buying. BTC holding the first support indicates that shorts are taking profits at low levels; however, if the volume cannot break through the 78.5K–80K area above, the rebound is likely to turn into a technical pullback after deleveraging. ETH is also experiencing ETF outflows simultaneously, but its elasticity usually lags BTC by half a beat, and altcoins will wait until BTC digests the pressure near 82K before daring to follow. The current rhythm is: BTC sets the direction, ETH follows the sentiment, and altcoins watch for when risk appetite truly warms up. The more bullish path lies in the derivatives side #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
The midterm elections essentially price in U.S. fiscal and regulatory policies, with control of both chambers directly impacting the short-term trends of U.S. Treasuries, the dollar, gold, and BTC.
The market baseline expectation is a divided Congress, with each party controlling one chamber. Large-scale tax cuts, fiscal stimulus, and aggressive regulation are unlikely to pass, and this scenario is largely priced in. Two types of unexpected outcomes will amplify volatility:
- Republicans sweep both chambers: Expectations for tax cuts and deregulation rise, deficit expansion pushes up Treasury yields and the dollar, gold comes under pressure, the tech AI sector benefits, and BTC strengthens along with risk assets.
- Democrats sweep both chambers: Direction towards tax increases and stronger regulation, deficit contraction leads to lower Treasury yields, gold benefits; increased crypto regulatory pressure rises, bearish for BTC.
Historical patterns are for reference only: U.S. stocks generally rise in the 12 months following elections, but this year’s pre-election pullback is far below the historical average, leaving limited room for recovery. BTC’s past three cycles saw an average gain of about 54% one year after elections, but the median decline was 31% in the first three months post-election, coinciding with halving cycles, so the trend is not purely election-driven.
On policy, the legislative direction of the CLARITY Act will be decided by the new Congress; a divided Congress is somewhat positive for stocks but prolongs policy uncertainty for crypto.
In trading, avoid heavy positions ahead of time; prioritize observing the linkage between Treasuries and the dollar for confirmation, then cautiously test with light positions once signals stabilize. The core of the midterms remains Fed policy, corporate earnings, and ETF fund flows; elections are more of a sentiment catalyst.
$BTC $ETH $XAU When I saw this news, my first reaction was to add a column to the watchlist rather than label the market as "bullish." After learning quantitative analysis, I have a habit: when encountering something new, I always want to break it down into conditions 🤖
According to Cointelegraph, the CFTC has approved the trading of stock perpetual futures on U.S. exchanges, bringing a popular product form from the crypto market into traditional markets, but related legal disputes are still ongoing. Both approval and disputes coexist, so I need to note down both conditions.
If I were to write this as a strategy, I would set it as: if regulatory approval happens, and the product is actually launched with sustained trading activity, then increase attention to this sector. I think this has more significance for the form of perpetual contract products than for the direct price impact on crypto assets. Stocks are the underlying assets; just because the word "perpetual" is used doesn't mean the potential demand should be attributed to the crypto space.
The advantage of this rule is that I won't be misled by headlines and can distinguish between "allowed to trade" and "actively traded." The loophole is that the signal might be slow, and active trading doesn't necessarily mean controllable risk; if legal disputes affect product arrangements, then the reference value of historical data might also be discounted, which is my speculation.
What I want to focus on next is the specific launch arrangements and progress of disputes, first completing the observation conditions, and not rushing to translate regulatory news into price direction.Latest election forecast overview: Is Trump likely to lose badly this time?
The Democrats have a 95% chance of taking the House and a 77% chance of taking the Senate, with expectations for a sweep of both chambers significantly rising. Don't ask why there's no focus on the potential for renewed military action against Iran after the midterms, no attention to oil prices or gold, and no concern about changes in the probability of a rate hike in December—because Trump's team favors cryptocurrencies, and those who understand know what that means!
Of course, the votes are not fully counted yet, and uncertainties remain, so position management is essential!
Trading advice:
Bearish dominance, short positions on rallies: short Bitcoin near 77,500-78,000, targeting a drop below 76,000; short Ethereum near 2,280-2,300, targeting a drop below 2,180!
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 BTC's largest amount of money last night was wasted, and it was hit again this morning.
At 21:00, a single candle with 597,250 contracts, the highest volume of the day, $BTC topped at 77,856.6 from 77,395 and closed at 77,368.1, with an upper shadow of 488 points; real orders were placed above 77,850.
At 04:00 and 05:00 combined, 426,326 contracts were traded, lifting the price from 77,588 to 78,049.4, moving 461 points.
At 07:00, a single candle with 220,647 contracts, less than half the previous volume, cut from 77,974.7 down to 77,400 and closed at 77,439.4; two bullish candles were fully given back and even resulted in a loss. At 08:00, it continued to drop to 77,008, breaking through 77,346 and 77,080 together.
Current price is 77,152 / +0.16% / MA20 77,312, below the moving average.
If a rebound between 77,340~77,440 fails and the 1H candle closes bearish with volume (≥200,000 contracts), short with stop loss at 77,550, target 77,008; if broken, look to 76,360, risk-reward ratio 2.4/6.4.
If the 1H candle closes bullish with volume above 77,550 (≥250,000 contracts), buy on pullback at 77,450~77,500, stop loss 77,300, target 78,049, risk-reward ratio 2.7.
Do not chase the dip, wait for the rebound.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk) A publicly listed company added another 18,000 $BTC to its ledger, yet its own stock plunged even harder — this divergence itself is more worth watching than the increase in holdings. While Coinbase disclosed the additional Bitcoin reserve, analysts downgraded the target price, and management hinted at possible share sales. The hands buying coins and selling shares come from the same building, so the market naturally reads conflicting signals. First, look at the hardest set of numbers: OKX market shows $BTC at 77,133.80 $USDT, down 1.68% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of 488.9 million USDT; the 4-hour RSI14 is only 39.0, still some distance from oversold, indicating the weakness is "mild and sustained," not a one-time panic sell-off. Under this structure, corporate accumulation looks more like catching a falling knife in a downtrend rather than bottom-fishing at an emotional low. The real observation point lies at the 77,065.0 support: if it holds, the accumulation narrative can still be told; if it breaks, the positive news of 18,000 coins will be quickly repriced as "widening unrealized losses." Why say the market may be underestimating the negative layers of this news? Most only see the supply contraction logic of "buying coins again," but overlook the secondary effects on the stock side. COIN's stock price continues to weaken, target prices are downgraded, and management hints at possible share sales — these three combined point in the same direction: traditional capital is discounting the business model of "betting on $BTC with the balance sheet." When both financing and stock price tighten simultaneously, the marginal ability of companies to buy coins will be weakened — being able to add 18,000 coins today does not mean nextNo way? This is possible? The hacker who stole from a major exchange a few days ago is now openly laundering money in front of the entire network 😂
You can clearly see on-chain that an address linked to the hacker sent 8,567 SOL into a mixing pool called Privacy Cash, worth about $798,000 at the time. Several other related addresses are doing similar things.
Someone closely examined one of the transactions. 3,520.97 SOL went into the pool and came out split into three parts: 1,000, 1,250, and 1,270.97 SOL, with the total amount exactly matching before fees. The address in the screenshot came back about 3 hours later with another deposit of around 4,205 SOL, seemingly testing the waters to see if it would be flagged.
Looking further back to November 3rd, about 87,000 SOL, roughly $8 million, had already flowed out from the original stolen wallet. The funds first moved into new wallets, then cycled through lending vaults and liquid staking, and finally were either sold or converted into Bitcoin.
In total, about $6.34 billion was stolen, with approximately $2.85 billion frozen. The platform covered the users’ losses with reserves. The unfrozen portion is now being moved piece by piece into dark addresses.
The addresses are all public, anyone can click and see where the money is going, yet it can’t be stopped. It’s quite frustrating to watch.
For beginners, it’s recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC The author recorded a set of perpetual contract positions all short, with a total position value of 170 million U. The positions simultaneously incur funding fees, but unrealized P&L is inconsistent; this contrast is more noteworthy than just looking at the short position size. 📊 BTC short uses 25X cross margin, position size -1406.79 BTC, position value 110 million U, margin 4.3852 million U, average entry price 79,888.0 U. Current unrealized P&L is +2.7559 million U, funding fee +418,300 U, liquidation price 92,547.65 U. ETH also uses 25X cross margin short, position size -3546.92 ETH, position value 8.1476 million U, margin 325,900 U, average entry price 2,258.74 U. Unrealized P&L is -136,000 U, but funding fee still +5,411.74 U, liquidation price 8,052.55 U. SOL short uses 20X cross margin, position size -38,200 SOL, position value 3.5831 million U, margin 179,200 U, average entry price 95.9647 U. Unrealized P&L +83,600 U, funding fee +10,200 U, liquidation price 625.44 U. 💡 My view. The most intuitive aspect of this record is “consistent direction, divergent results”: BTC and SOL shorts are temporarily in profit, while ETH shorts are at a loss, and funding fee income cannot mask the differences caused by price movements. Funding fees are income and expenses during the holding period and do not equal realizedLet me first make a straightforward calculation: posting and tagging an account to issue tokens saves operational costs, not the cost of evaluating projects. Clanker has appointed Toady Hawk as the new CEO, currently taken over by Mask Network, planning to collaborate with the engineering team to relaunch, updating the brand and features.
I think this is a relatively positive signal for platform recovery, but it’s still a bit short of regaining user trust. It was once one of the highest trading volume token issuance platforms on Base, indicating there was demand for this model; however, after founder disputes and multiple handovers, whether the team can deliver steadily is more important than just changing the name. My guess is, if the relaunch only makes token issuance easier, the burden of project screening will actually become heavier.
I would choose to be more cautious, first seeing if the features are implemented and if the team can maintain continuously, rather than treating the CEO change as a clean slate. Facing this relaunch, will you wait for the product to stabilize, or are you willing to take the risk to be among the first users?This morning, I put $BTC and $ZEC in the same chart to compare: both closed down, but the capital movements were opposite 📉🧭
First, look at BTC: around 76811, down 1.91%, open interest 53.886 billion, increased by 1.52% intraday; liquidations at 91.57 million, the highest among the four, but positions did not decrease. Someone is taking over the liquidated positions, this is called turnover 💰
Now look at ZEC: around 1136, down 8.02%, about four times BTC's drop; open interest only 2.33 billion, decreased by 3.75% intraday; liquidations at 14.52 million, about one-sixth of BTC. Not many liquidations, but positions are withdrawing, this is an active retreat 🌊
Costs are similar: BTC funding rate 0.0109%, ZEC 0.0101%, leverage is not cheap for either, the difference is not in cost but in staying or leaving. ETH -0.94% is the most resilient, but positions decreased by 0.90%; SOL -2.66%, positions increased by 0.62%. The whole network longs vs shorts are 49.11 to 50.89, all four coins' positions are close to the ground within one hour, and the market has no clear direction ⚖️
My rating: to hold, side with BTC; before ZEC's daily positions turn positive, treat any rebound as a window to reduce positions, not a bottom-fishing signal. Don't pick the wrong side ✅ #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 Everyone is calculating the 78.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, but I'm more curious about who is betting on the remaining 21.1%. There aren't many people, but those who dare to bet usually aren't guessing blindly.
There's also a detail that goes against common sense: the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike in January is 63.0%, even more "certain" than the one in December. It seems the market thinks the rate hikes will stop after December. However, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is still 21.8%, meaning one in five people doesn't believe this scenario.
$BTC is just sideways in this atmosphere, and $ETH is even more subdued. I'm not worried about the rate hike itself; what worries me is that everyone thinks it's no big deal. [Earnings Exceed Expectations, What $AMD Really Needs to Prove Is Delivery]
AMD's earnings revenue and EPS slightly exceeded expectations, with data center revenue nearly doubling year-over-year. The Q4 revenue guidance is about $17 billion, significantly higher than the market's previous estimates. After-hours stock price surged over 9% at one point, with capital already pricing in demand and order visibility.
The market now looks to see if Helios can convert demand into revenue. $AMD previously stated that Helios has entered production, and $xMETA is testing the system; the agreement with Meta allows for deployment of up to 6 gigawatts of GPUs, with accompanying warrants vested based on purchase milestones, not a fully realized order. Data center revenue is expected to more than double by 2027, and server CPU growth is projected to exceed 70%, which were management's prior outlooks, not newly raised guidance from this earnings report.
So this is very positive news, but whether the stock can continue to rise ultimately depends on delivery ramp-up and profit margins: Q4 gross margin guidance is about 55%, lower than Q3's 56%. Demand is already evident; the speed of fulfillment is the next challenge.
#AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 Let's start with the phenomenon. The probability of keeping the rate unchanged in December is only 21.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 78.9%. The market is already trading this rate hike as a done deal; the focus of discussion is not whether to hike, but whether there will be more hikes after this one.
January's data further clarifies the issue. The probability of no change is 15.3%, cumulative 25 basis points hike is 63.0%, and cumulative 50 basis points hike is 21.8%. The 63.0% corresponds to "stop after the December hike," which is the mainstream path; 21.8% means some are already paying for a second hike, more than one-fifth, which cannot be ignored as a tail risk.
Mechanistically, the slope of the rate path influences pricing more than a single decision. $BTC is most sensitive to "where the terminal rate will be," and less concerned about "whether this hike happens," because it has already been priced in. What will truly trigger repricing is whether that 21.8% in January moves up or down.
Judgment: The volatility on the day of the December meeting is likely to be less than expected; the real risk window is in January. If the 21.8% continues to rise, high-beta assets like $ETH and $SOL will experience worse pullbacks than $BTC.
One point worth considering: such a highly consensus expectation of 78.9% is inherently fragile. If the outcome falls into the remaining 21.1%, the reverse impact will be greater than the actual rate hike landing.Alignment of liquidation charts: short positions are near, long positions overlap, don't chase in the middle
48-hour liquidation pain points alignment: the upper side is the short liquidation zone, the lower side is the long liquidation zone. $BTC current price 77123, above 78040 there are $49.69 million short positions clustered, distance +1.19%; $ETH current price 2267, above 2281 there are $30.18 million short positions, distance +0.6%; $SOL current price 92.43, above 92.93 there are $6.85 million short positions, distance +0.54%. The short positions above are close, creating a magnetic pull for a short squeeze upwards in the short term.
Long positions below are thicker: BTC has $53.17 million long positions stacked at 76249, distance -1.13%; ETH has $25.56 million long positions at 2234, distance -1.44%; SOL has $4.91 million long positions at 90.69, distance -1.88%. This indicates heavier chips below, retail long positions concentrated; once BTC breaks below 76249, the concentrated long positions below will stop loss, and the magnetic pull for a downward stampede will be stronger than upwards.
In terms of rhythm, ETH and SOL may first trigger a slight short squeeze upwards; BTC needs close attention at 76249, breaking below means guarding against a long position stampede. Don't chase in the middle area, wait until the liquidation zones are triggered before observing. With the US midterm elections approaching, macro volatility may also amplify liquidation magnetic pulls. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 ETH holdings shrink by 3.6%, but trading volume explodes to $5.9 billion: Who is quietly exiting?
$ETH is oscillating around 2280, seemingly calm on the surface, but the structure of the futures market is undergoing a silent turnover.
Three data points paint the full picture:
1. Trading volume expands: ETH perpetual contracts traded $5.9 billion in 24 hours, while spot only $318 million, turnover rate is 18.6 times that of spot.
2. Holdings are shrinking: Total ETH perpetual holdings in the market dropped from $1.91 billion to $1.84 billion within 13 hours, down 3.6%.
3. Funding rate turns positive: From negative in October to +0.0076%/8h, longs start paying, but contracts still trade at a 0.06% discount.
Putting these three together, it translates to: old longs are closing positions, new longs are stepping in, but the new longs lack strong confidence—they are willing to pay funding fees but hesitate to push prices above the discount.
Whale activity confirms this. Among 2,483 smart money traders, shorts hold $1.51B, longs only $421M; short positions are 3.6 times the size of longs, with an average short entry price of 2239, currently slightly underwater. Shorts are not being squeezed out, but they also haven't gained an advantage.
Implications for traders: This "high turnover, low holdings, positive funding rate" structure usually corresponds to a consolidation phase rather than a trend start. Support at 2170, resistance at 2260; before breaking either side, position management is more important than directional judgment.
$BTC $ZEC SKHY needs to be clarified at 05:00.
The 22:00 opening plunge of 63,063 contracts was the largest of the day. $SKHY dropped from 154.33 to 151.34 and closed at 151.90, then four bearish candles ground down to 150.28.
At 05:00, only 36,071 contracts were traded, 57% of the sell-off volume, rising from 151.14 to a 24h high of 155.00 and closing at 154.17, which is 0.70 higher than the 22:00 opening price of 153.46. Less money can make a big move; there were no sell orders below 151.
But it only touched 155 once before retreating. From 06:00, three candles have been grinding between 153.24 and 154.96; the current candle has pierced down to 153.01, breaking below the 07:00 low.
Current price is 153.35 / +3.15% / MA20 151.45.
If it closes below 153.01 with volume ≥20,000 contracts, short on a rebound to 153.4~153.7, stop loss at 154.30, target 151.34, risk-reward ratio 2.9.
If it closes above 155.00 with volume ≥20,000 contracts, go long on a pullback to 154.5~154.7, stop loss at 153.60, targets 156.80/158.32, risk-reward ratios 2.2/3.7.
The real pricing happens at 22:30 when the US market opens.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)After the midterm elections, Bitcoin fell first and then rose three times.
2014: Fell 48% in 71 days, rose 24% after one year
2018: Fell 51% in 39 days, rose 45% after one year
2022: Fell 15% in 13 days, rose 92% after one year
2026: How much will it fall? How much will it rise after one year?