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The attitude of Trump expressed in this report by Jin10 can actually be ignored; it records the statements Trump made when questioned by reporters during his campaign rally in Florida on October 24.
Especially since Trump was in the campaign phase, the reliability of all statements is severely weakened, as they serve political vote-gathering purposes and do not represent his true thoughts.
However, another piece of news might have a mildly bullish impact on Brent — the Iranian ambassador to Pakistan clearly stated that Pakistan Army Marshal Munir's visit to Tehran this Monday was as a messenger.
But Iran stated that this time it was Iran conveying messages to Trump through Munir, not Munir bringing messages from Trump.
Why is this bullish for crude oil? Because this news proves that communication channels between the US and Iran still exist, but there has been no positive progress in the situation; having a channel but no progress means both sides' attitudes, conditions, and thresholds are tougher, which is indeed unfavorable for the US-Iran situation! #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $BTC $XAU Got the script "A trader who can't trade coins isn't a good hacker" again?😐
▶︎ 2026.01: Sold at $3109
▶︎ 2026.09: Sold again at $2679
▶︎ 2026.10: Bought back at $2353
A mysterious entity with funds sourced from Tornado has cumulatively purchased 3000.5 $ETH (7.06 million USD) since 10.23, then swapped it to $BTC via the cross-chain protocol THORChain; this entity had previously sold ETH in batches at price peaks and recently bought back at lowsThe upcoming Predict TGE on BNB Chain could become another test of market sentiment. Its pre-market price on Aster reportedly peaked near $5 before correcting to the $1.50–$2 range. Meanwhile, prediction-market hype appears to be cooling. Polymarket’s reported IPO focus, uncertainty around token issuance, and the weak performance of third-party products like pPOLY all raise questions about how much speculative demand remains. The key lesson: a project's popularity doesn't guarantee a successful 最脆弱的其实不是价格，是买方的共识本身。 当所有人都站在同一边时，谁来做对手盘？ 刷到 BTC、ETH、SOL 三个市场的买卖杠杆比都逼近近期高位，借钱做多的仓位一路堆高，空头借贷占比却低得发凉。我盯着这组数据看了好一会儿，心里冒出来的不是兴奋，是警觉。多头情绪太整齐了，整齐到有点不真实。 这种一致性本身就是风险。链上借贷里多头不断加码、做空的人寥寥，意味着上涨预期已经被大量提前计入价格。换句话说，市场不是在等利好，是在等确认。一旦确认迟到，拥挤的仓位就会自己制造波动。BTC 作为情绪锚，只要它先晃一下，ETH 的杠杆跟跌会更快，SOL 这类高 beta 山寨的震荡幅度只会被放大。这不是预测方向，是结构决定的传导顺序。 往上看也说得通：共识强、空头薄，一旦有增量买盘点火，轧空式的加速上冲很容易出现，尤其在山寨端，弹性会被情绪放大成脉冲行情。但这条路径需要新的催化，光靠现有仓位推不动。反过来，若宏观预期反复、成交量跟不上，最先松动的会是那些借钱追高的手，而不是现货持有者。 我自己的节奏是：不追已经跑出来的那一段，先看 BTC 能不能稳住关键区间，再看 ETH 相对强度有没有延续。山寨的脉$SIGN is bearish, watching the unlock on November 15. The real pressure starts the week of November 8. There are 21 days left until the unlock. In backtesting, underperformance mostly clusters in the last 7 days before the unlock; the next two weeks haven't reached the time to ramp up yet. The chart's highs are still rising, but that's a structure formed in previous weeks and can't withstand a new supply equivalent to 10% of circulating volume. Trading volume and contract open interest are negligible; leveraged funds basically haven't entered. When supply pressure comes, buying can only rely on spot demand; with such shallow depth, prices can be easily pushed around. From November 8, watch two things: whether contract open interest suddenly expands, and whether the price can hold the intraday low of 0.010578. Bullish condition: if $SIGN outperforms the market during the week of November 8 to 14, it means the unlock has been priced in early and the bearish view is invalid. I won't give a direction for the price movement after the unlock day.$ETH is being criticized as trash, but on-chain just spotted two huge whales secretly switching positions.
One closed a large long position on BTC and added more $ETH, while the other cashed out $150 million worth of BTC over 11 consecutive days, then immediately went all-in buying $ETH.
Now the ETH/BTC rate is dropping like crazy, and retail investors are cutting losses overnight. The big players specifically choose these low exchange rate troughs to adjust their positions against the trend, clearly aiming to pre-position for rotation.
While others panic, they build positions on the left side; the bottom here is much stronger than most people think. Bitcoin faces a tough macro backdrop as Brent holds above $100
Over the long term, we can see that when Brent settles into a strong upward trend, above its annual average, Bitcoin has often slowed down.Let's talk about an old case: Mt. Gox. Newcomers today might not have heard of it, but every time I see the words "exchange suspends withdrawals," the first thing that comes to mind is this.
Simply put, it was an early Bitcoin exchange based in Tokyo. At its peak, most BTC trading worldwide went through it. In February 2014, it suddenly suspended withdrawals, and shortly after, filed for bankruptcy. They claimed to have lost about 850,000 BTC, later recovering around 200,000 BTC. Repayments to creditors were delayed for ten years and only started being distributed in 2024.
What I personally took away from this incident are three points:
1. "Big" and "established" don’t equal safety; a larger scale just means a bigger impact if something goes wrong;
2. Slow withdrawals and various excuses to delay are signals themselves—don’t wait for official explanations;
3. Don’t keep all your long-term idle coins in one place; if you can manage your private keys well, diversifying a bit gives more peace of mind.
Honestly, what happened ten years ago is still relevant today. Do you regularly move your coins around, or just leave them untouched?
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice $DOGE Observation: With brand partnerships broken and unlimited inflation, what can DOGE rely on to survive?
Experts in the comments have seen through DOGE's fatal flaw: it indeed lacks solid real-world use cases, and its tokenomics inherently carry an "inflation" gene (a fixed annual issuance of 5 billion tokens). The supply has no absolute cap, meaning it can never form the extreme deflationary narrative like BTC.
This news further exposes the chaos within its ecosystem, as the Dogecoin Foundation and House of Doge have directly terminated their exclusive brand partnership.
This internal conflict over trademark and commercial development rights indicates that its commercialization is not going smoothly.
As for exchanging "Such App" related assets for $4 million worth of Dogecoin Labs stock, it seems more like an internal asset reshuffle, providing almost zero empowerment to the DOGE token itself.
In the crypto world, DOGE's core "use" has long become a pure Meme sentiment carrier and Elon Musk's "pump-and-dump machine."
It lacks ETH's smart contract ecosystem and BTC's store-of-value consensus, relying entirely on retail investors' FOMO and capital speculation.
With the macro market severely shrunk and liquidity dried up, no fresh capital is driving consensus. An old Meme coin lacking hard currency attributes and burdened with continuous inflationary selling pressure will struggle to break out independently in the current environment.
Without real application support, relying solely on emotional hype will ultimately leave only endless downward drift.按兵不动是九成共识，真正值钱的是剩下那一成。十年期贴着5.3%，布伦特一天涨3%到116.72美元、四月以来最高——油价往上走，通胀预期跟着走，会上那两张不同意见的票就有话说了。变数不在决议，在声明里对通胀上行风险的措辞：这句话只要没删，降息预期就得再往后推一轮。 1998年10月那次紧急降息是被外部冲击逼出来的，不是通胀压下来了；这次反过来，是通胀没下去，白宫还想要便宜的钱。钱这边的翻译很简单：美元和短端利率不下来，风险资产就得靠自己的现金流站着。 BTC压在80,000下方，我这一轮做的是BNB、XRP、SOL三个多头位置，都是有人真金白银在做事的那种。数据截至21时。 #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？Final latency cut down to about 150 milliseconds, stablecoin addresses surged to about 14.2 million, but dipped to around 98.6 over the weekend, $SOL I recognize this fundamental, and I’m watching the price level first
On 10/21 Alpenglow launched on mainnet, final latency dropped from about 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds (Anza / The Block).
Around the same week, stablecoin holding addresses hit a new high of about 14.2 million, with about 4.85 million added in 2026; supply fell from the September peak of about 17.5 billion down to about 15.9 billion (SolanaFloor / DeFiLlama).
Intraday low over the weekend was about 98.62, OKX is now around 101.15 (24h high about 102.77).
Both the upgrade and stablecoin narratives are strong, but the price is still hovering near 100. I believe it follows the overall market sentiment, not convinced that the dividend has been fully bought near 101.
First watch for holding around 98.6–100, then rebound to about 102.8–105; if 4H closes below about 98.62, expect a drop toward around 95.
Do you trust on-chain data more, or this price level near 100?
$SOL
#Today'sMarketTalk数据截至 21 时。先把上一轮的账摊开，一个一个报，不解释： ZEC 做空，1,183.14 进，现价 1,209.13，-2.20%，止损 1,206.21 被打掉，未中。 BTC 做空，80,216.30 进，现价 80,412.40，-0.24%，止损 80,580.86 没碰到，未中。 XRP 做多，1.2938 进，现价 1.2976，+0.39%，止盈 1.3145 没碰到，命中。 三单中一个，命中率 33%。数字就是这样。 我做空 ZEC 那一单被扫，扫它的不是新买盘，是被打掉的多头回补和空头的止损一起把人往上推。24 号那天它一天跌 7.76% 到 1,136，杠杆多头成串被清算；隔天弹回 1,200 上方。跌完就弹，弹的是仓位不是资金——这种结构我见得多了，所以这一轮我不再站在它的对面，但也不站它这边。 先说宏观，因为这决定了这一轮所有方向能拿多久。布伦特原油一天涨 3% 到 116.72 美元，四月以来最高，中东又要动手的消息把通胀预期重新点着；十年期收益率贴着 5.3%。27 到 28 号的议息会议，按兵不动是九成共识，可市场给剩下那一成留了上蹿的空间——就这一点#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 【This time it's not just about making statements: mediators reportedly have arrived in Tehran】
Tonight brings news of mediation progress. A 21:09 breaking news report citing informed officials states that Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran on Sunday, coordinating mediation efforts with the US. But at 21:24, Saudi Arabia reported that intercepted missile debris caused two injuries. The news is mixed; you can't just choose to hear what you want.
Putting these two pieces of news together carries more weight than simply seeing a "willingness to talk." I tend to view mediation as a potential pressure relief factor: if verifiable easing occurs, BTC selling pressure might ease, and ETH could have a chance to recover; but for now, we cannot price in any agreement or ceasefire prematurely.
At 21:41 Beijing time, BTC is about 80431, ETH about 2337, both priced in USDT. Looking at the 1-hour chart tonight: BTC support is 80210—80265, resistance 80580—80640; ETH support 2322—2328, resistance 2340—2346. Both coins remain below the hourly 20-period moving average, with ETH relatively weaker.
I prefer to wait for news and market to confirm each other. Only if prices reclaim and hold above their respective resistance edges will I increase confidence in recovery; if they break below support, we cannot remain optimistic based solely on mediation news. Today is Sunday, so don't treat 21:30 as if the US stock market has already opened. (Some data from Jin10)
$BTC $ETH
For market observation only, be aware of repeated news and volatility risks. #三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓
Samsung's upcoming earnings report has exposed the bare truth of South Korea's tech sector. On the surface, Q3 operating profit surged nearly 8 times year-over-year, AI storage demand is booming, and HBM4 shipments are impressive. But if you look at the two community comments in the image, they are all contradicting this.
The first comment says SK Hynix's HBM4 backend equipment orders have been postponed to next year. What does that mean? It means capacity expansion is slower than expected; the meat smells good, but it can't be cooked in the pot. The second comment is even more critical: Samsung's profits hit a record high, yet its stock price keeps falling. Why? Because foreign capital is withdrawing, the company's buyback is about to expire, and retail investors have all moved to US stocks. There are basically no net buyers in the Korean stock market now; liquidity has been drained.
This is the most realistic portrayal of the global semiconductor sector right now: the better the performance, the harder the fall might be. Because what supports stock prices is never how much was earned in the past, but how much money is willing to come in to take over in the future. It's clear now that big money is retreating.
This situation directly impacts our crypto circle. The Korean stock market and semiconductors are barometers of global tech stock risk appetite; losing net buyers means global hot money is contracting its defenses. In such an environment, if tech stocks can't rally, BTC, as a highly volatile asset, will struggle to stand alone. Currently, BTC is stuck in a tug-of-war at this level with heavy selling pressure above. The fundamental reason is the macro lack of continuous inflow of incremental funds. $SAMSUNG The daytime rebound couldn't hold, BTC and ETH hit resistance and then turned down, now the market is stuck in the middle, oscillating back and forth. Many assume that the Fed pausing rate hikes is good news, but expectation gaps often hurt the most.
Pausing rate hikes does not mean a shift in monetary policy. As long as the Fed keeps the possibility of future hikes, the market will struggle to sustain a big rally. Hourly moving averages are tangled, market volatility intensifies, and ETH's volatility elasticity will be greater.
The FOMC shoe hasn't dropped yet, market uncertainty is very high now, so keep positions light in the short term. Don't rush to bottom-fish for a rebound; wait for the meeting results, see the direction of funds, then consider entering.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
$BTC $ETH
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Damn, after looking at the revenue data from 15 launchpads, it's simply heartbreaking!
In the past month, 10 of them have dropped more than 75%! This business has basically turned from a money printer into a money shredder.
Comparing the average daily revenue in September to the most recent 7 days, StonkFun plummeted 85%, $PONS plummeted 92%, BONK.fun plummeted 85%, o1 Launchpad plummeted 93%, and Ansem is almost down to zero.
Only $PUMP bucked the trend with a 34% increase, earning over $10.33 million in revenue in the last 7 days. U.S. stock market is closed, but these three are still open. Weekend tokenized stocks' prices are entirely determined by buyers and sellers arguing.
The underlying stock is unchanged; premium is the only variable. No one will warn you if you buy at a premium of one or two points.
$xSNDK SanDisk 1240.40, 24h -3.24%, premium +0.14%. Down 30.19% in 30 days, 1231.98 is the 30-day low.
$xSPCX 147.24, -0.30%, premium -0.05%. Underlying stock reference 147.31, 30-day range 141.45–175.15.
$xCRCL Circle 85.65, +0.25%, premium +0.01%. Up 4.12% in 7 days, 75.93 is the 30-day bottom.
You can still place orders when the underlying stock market is closed. It sounds like freedom, but actually, it just extends the time you can make mistakes. Capital panel shows red alert: The more lively the rebound, the more it looks like a retreat signal
Opening the capital panel, the small green bars in the short term can easily mislead. Although there are tens of millions flowing in within half an hour or an hour, seemingly retail bottom-fishing, it is almost negligible over a longer period.
The data on the far right for BTC is glaring: a net outflow of 7.523 billion over 30 days, 1.028 billion outflow over 7 days, and still 878 million exiting in 3 days. This means that during the rebound, large funds did not return but rather used liquidity to sell off.
ETH is even weaker: a net outflow of 8.051 billion over 30 days, 3.544 billion outflow over 15 days, with a loss rate exceeding BTC. The short-term rebound looks more like a bull trap, with a lack of support on the market.
SOL is consistent as well: 2.035 billion outflow over 30 days, and another 12.53 million in 24 hours. Even the altcoin leader failed to attract incremental funds, indicating the retreat is widespread.
The conclusion is straightforward: long-term funds have had continuous net outflows for a month, with no increments. What sustains the market rally? Any current rebound looks more like an escape window for retail investors rather than a reason for heavy bottom-fishing. Don’t mistake short-term green bars for bottom signals; the capital trend has not reversed yet.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ 🖊 Market Overview The evening market showed no surprises. BTC is currently priced around 80,293.6, having surged to 81,070 on the 30-minute chart before pulling back, with a slight daily increase of +0.61%, but still down -4.18% over the past 30 days. ETH is at 2,329.42, SOL at 100.83—both turned positive during the day, yet their 30-day declines remain deep at -13.29% and -16.06%, respectively. The rebound is a fact, but the quality of the rebound differs. 🔍 Data Breakdown: Who is Under Pressure, Who is Holding Firm First, look at the leverage side. In the past 24 hours, the total network liquidations amounted to approximately $577.5 million, with longs accounting for 91.17%, which is 10.3 times that of shorts. BTC liquidations were $234.8 million, ETH $184.2 million, and SOL $31.96 million. SOL's long liquidations are particularly striking: $17.3 million, with the 8-hour average funding rate hitting -0.021%. The negative funding rate and long liquidations form a typical "feeding each other" cycle. This is not panic selling but a passive clearing of leverage positions. Next, look at the capital flow. On October 22, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $635.6 million, the largest single-day outflow since June; on the 23rd, another $137.9 million outflow occurred, totaling $774 million over two days, offsetting more than 70% of the net inflows from the previous three days. BTC market dominance has topped 60%, with funds concentrating toward the top, rather thanCZ just said that the next big growth wave in crypto will come from an underestimated area. If you can discover it, early participants will make a fortune.
This is actually a true cliché. Everyone in the crypto family wants to get in early on new narratives, but nowadays in the cryptocurrency space, there isn't a new track as influential as DeFi, with a viable business model and real user demand.
Everything is PvP—whether it's NFT, GameFi, the metaverse, play-to-earn, Bitcoin inscriptions, Ethereum L2, AI-themed memes, or even the current coin-stock memes—they're all just competing for each other's USDT. The only surviving model still alive is DeFi.
Compared to the neighboring AI's LLMs and agents, crypto has indeed become less sexy, less cool. The only thing still offering some wealth effect is the big cycles of Bitcoin and Ethereum creating wealth. But in the 2026 bear market of the big cycle, Bitcoin falls too little, and it seems Bitcoin's risk-reward ratio and odds have also declined.
At present, I can only wait for Bitcoin to drop. If it doesn't drop and this starts a four-year bull market cycle, then I might just hold two layers of positions through the bull market. Without enough multiples, I won't buy Bitcoin.$BTC is suspected to have entered the sixth accumulation phase in nearly two years
Based on the net position data of BTC on exchanges over the past two years, it currently looks like a new round of accumulation phase has begun. During this phase, price volatility may be relatively large, but it will greatly help the upward trend of Bitcoin's price.
In the previous five accumulation phases, BTC price generally rose alongside. The stronger the accumulation, the higher the potential BTC price increase, and the longer the upward trend may last.
From the current perspective, it seems to have just entered the initial stage of accumulation. The buying power is still significantly weaker compared to the previous five times. If the buying strength can increase like before, the probability of Bitcoin price rising will be higher. Also, compared to the selling phase, the price stability is relatively stronger.
Some may question the price drop at the end of the fourth accumulation phase, but that phase reached BTC's historical high, and the accumulation strength and duration were not very strong.
Therefore, I say that the stronger the accumulation, the more it helps Bitcoin's price rise. At the very least, during the accumulation phase, BTC's price decline is limited, indicating that more investors are willing to buy at the current price level. ✨Don't be misled by the market consensus that the October FOMC will pause rate hikes; this is not a substantial positive.
The better-than-expected PMI data shows the current economy remains hot, with corporate selling prices hitting the fastest increase in over a year, and inflation stickiness far from fully dissipated. This pause is by no means a signal of policy shift; rather, it means the high interest rate environment will last longer, and the market's previous expectations for rate cuts have basically fallen through.
On the market front, BTC barely maintains sideways movement relying solely on the pause in rate hikes expectation. The high interest rate environment suppresses incremental off-exchange capital inflows. Spot ETF funds mostly exhibit impulsive quick in-and-out behavior, lacking sustained buying support. The upper-level trapped positions accumulate layer upon layer, making it difficult to form an effective breakout without liquidity easing. ETH, as a follower, shows weaker performance; the ecosystem currently lacks new growth catalysts, capital is cautious, and under the high interest rate drain effect, price elasticity is worse. During market corrections, ETH often falls more sharply. The current sideways movement is not a true stabilization; rebounds lacking capital support are mostly bull traps. Operationally, blind chasing of highs or bottoms is inadvisable. Long-term bullish logic can be retained, but short-term trading requires strict stop-loss enforcement; never stubbornly hold and amplify risks.
Do not treat the pause in rate hikes as a reversal indicator for the market. The stronger the economic data, the more confidence the Federal Reserve has to maintain high rates. Policy uncertainty remains the core variable hanging over all risk assets.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
$BTC $ETH #SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings is a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice
HBM4 is still in the ramp-up phase this quarter, with limited shipment volume, making it difficult to boost Q3 profits; the main expectation is future stimulation. This quarter's profits mainly rely on HBM3E and rising AI memory prices. The key market points are the ramp-up progress of HBM4, long-term contract orders, and capital expenditure guidance. It is highly likely that business results will be slightly positive but may experience a significant increase 🔴 لماذا انخفض البيتكوين والإيثيريوم؟ الأسباب الحقيقية وراء هبوط السوق في 25 أكتوبر 2026 📉 هبوط $BTC و$ETH ليس مجرد حركة عشوائية على الرسم البياني، وليس من الدقيق اختزاله في عبارة «الحيتان تبيع». ما يحدث هو تداخل عدة عوامل: ضغط البيع، تصفية المراكز ذات الرافعة المالية، خروج الأموال من بعض الصناديق الاستثمارية، والقلق من الأوضاع الاقتصادية العالمية. 🔍 لفهم ما حدث فعلًا، يجب أن نفصل بين السبب الذي ضغط على الأسعار، والعوامل التي ضاعفت سرعة الهبوط. 💰 أولًا: خروج الأموال من صناديق البيتكوين والإيثDespite the drop, I’ve been watching closely, and BTC is still hovering around 80248, down 0.60%. ETH slipped to about 2328, down 1.69%, and SOL is circling around 100.81, down 0.58%. All three have moved down, but none have truly fallen off.
This is exactly what I was waiting for. Quarterly contracts across the board are still trading at a premium. BTC’s quarterly price is about 0.88% higher than spot, and the next quarter is even higher by around 2.2%. ETH’s quarterly premium ranges between 0.63% and 0.96%, with the next quarter also about 1.8% higher. No one is pushing the forward prices into a discount.
The exchange data matches this 👀. The total BTC balance on the network increased by only 212 coins in one day, ETH increased by 87,500 coins. Compared to the millions in total supply, this movement is negligible—no one is rushing to move coins in to dump the market.
Positions are actually shrinking: BTC positions shrank by 0.95% in one day, ETH by 3.86%, and SOL by 2.28%. The drop is accompanied by shrinking volume, indicating it’s not panic selling but leverage being withdrawn.
Looking at the market dominance, BTC’s share is still around 60.13%, down only 0.08%. The money hasn’t fled. ETH positions shrank the most, yet the forward premium still holds. This contradictory combination is exactly why I’m confident this is a deleveraging phase.
So my judgment remains the same: the forward premium hasn’t collapsed, no one is moving coins to dump the market, this drop is just deleveraging, not a market reversal. I’ll keep holding to my own rhythm, neither chasing nor cutting losses ✋.$BTC Judgment Week is here: The Fed meeting is the day after tomorrow, and these three hurdles for Bitcoin must be closely watched
The day after tomorrow (27-28), the Fed will hold its monetary policy meeting. This could be the most important week for the crypto world before the end of the year.
Let's lay out the three cards first.
The first card is inflation. September CPI hit 3.7%, exceeding expectations. The market's bet on a rate hike in December has already reached 90%.
The second card is oil prices. Brent crude broke through 113, WTI is approaching 100. The Houthis bombed Saudi Arabia 4 times in 48 hours. If oil prices don't drop, inflation won't come down, and Powell won't ease his tone.
The third card is capital. Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows exceeding $900 million for two consecutive weeks, institutions are withdrawing; last week, a giant whale transferred 10,600 BTC to exchanges in a single day, 2.8 times the daily average, big players are sharpening their knives.
The key levels are also very clear: above 84,400 is the average ETF holding cost line, trapping many; below 79,800 is the chain liquidation trigger line. [The price is stuck within this $4,600 range, waiting for the meeting's verdict.]
There will be no direction before the meeting, volatility kills first. Those with high leverage, be cautious.
Do you think this time the Fed will be hawkish or dovish? The price of Dogecoin is going down, but the longs in the contract market haven't left. The long-short account ratio has risen to 2.74, and the funding rate remains positive, annualized at about 5%. Putting these data together tells a somewhat contradictory story: the price falls, but the longs not only don't withdraw, they are paying to hold their positions.
A positive $DOGE funding rate means longs regularly pay shorts. In the past 20 days, out of 60 settlement windows, only 15 were negative, indicating longs have been holding on despite the cost. This structure has two possible outcomes. The good one: the price stabilizes, the crowded longs become fuel for a rebound, and shorts cover to push the price up. The bad one: the price breaks key levels again, longs who can't hold are forcibly liquidated by the system, and the liquidations themselves become new selling pressure, wave after wave.
Currently, the open interest in perpetual contracts is about $208 million, not very large, but the direction is one-sided. A one-sided market never lacks volatility, but it lacks a trigger.
For ordinary holders, this structure means something practical: don't just watch the spot price, keep an eye on the funding rate. When the rate turns negative, longs start to clear out, and the leverage risk is defused.On 10-22, in that $IRYS post, I wrote "It rose 71% then gave back 15%, it's cooling down." That judgment was wrong.
The real situation: It surged from 0.0223 all the way to a perpetual high of 0.40917, spot historical high of 0.2959 (10-24 03:24), then crashed back to 0.035. That's -88% from the spot historical high, -91% from the perpetual spike, and a 43.5% drop in 24 hours.
What really gave me the signal wasn't the price, but the funding rate: On 10-24 at 4 AM, it hit the max +1% (the cap), longs paid full at the peak; right after, the settlement period was squeezed from 4 hours down to 2 hours. One day later, on 10-25 at 4 PM, it flipped to -0.79%, the direction completely reversed.
The source of the money is even clearer: In the past 24 hours, perpetual trading volume was 4.93 billion tokens, about 172 million USD, while spot IRYS-USDT was only 32.05 million tokens, about 1.12 million USD — perpetual is 154 times the spot. Open interest is down to just 3.69 million USD, 46 times turnover washed out the chips.
My current rule: When the funding rate hits the cap and perpetual volume is over 100 times the spot, there's only one way.
Did you get any signals from these two spikes? $IRYS$COMP
Compound helped define on-chain lending, which gives COMP real history. It also faces a crowded market where Aave and newer money markets compete hard for deposits. Governance tokens only keep their weight if the protocol keeps its relevance. Worth tracking: borrowing demand, not just headline deposits.$VET
VeChain has always leaned toward enterprise supply chain and traceability rather than DeFi culture. That's a different game. Partnerships can look impressive, yet what counts is whether companies keep using the chain once pilots end. Quiet, repeat business tends to say more than a big announcement.ZEC's recent move is quite interesting. A few days ago, when it dropped to around 1100, the whole community was shouting "privacy coin bull run is over," but then it bounced back to 1200 within two days. Those who missed the rally feel worse than those who got stuck. The catalyst behind this is clear: the Winklevoss twins submitted the S-1 filing for a ZEC spot ETF, and the NU7 upgrade reduced confirmation time from 3.75 minutes to 75 seconds, fueling both the narrative and fundamentals.
But don't get carried away. On Hyperliquid, among 84 accounts, shorts total 216 million, longs 136 million, with only 39% betting on a rise. The ETF is a long-term story, shorts are the immediate reality, chasing longs at 1200 means going against most smart money.
BTC remains the same, trapped between 80,000 and 86,000, with the 365-day moving average as the only anchor. Volatility shrinking to 6% means a breakout is near, but until the direction is clear, any heavy position is a gamble.
ETH whales are still holding strong; the liquidation price at 2181 is a looming risk. SOL may be doing well on-chain, but its price is suppressed near 100 by ETF outflows and can't rise.
My own moves today are simple: reduce BTC and ETH positions to a level where I can sleep well, wait to see SOL around 100, and just observe ZEC without chasing. The more confusing the market, the more you have to believe in one thing—no loss is a gain, staying alive means having a next chance. $BTC $ETH $SOL The goal of the Strategy is clear: to continuously increase the amount of Bitcoin per share.
Michael Saylor summarizes the company's capital operation approach as digital capital, digital credit, and digital equity. Strategy is no longer just about simply buying BTC, but about building a financing and capital allocation system around Bitcoin.
Here is a key distinction: an increase in total holdings does not necessarily mean an increase in BTC per share. If the BTC growth from financing cannot keep up with equity dilution, the amount per share may still decline.
Digital capital, credit, and equity tools can provide more financing channels but also bring different costs and risks. The final outcome depends on financing terms, capital structure, and BTC price performance.
What Strategy aims to do is not just hold more Bitcoin, but to have more Bitcoin per share. Let's talk about the recently popular altcoin irys over the past two days.
1. Many people short based purely on feeling, shorting when it doubles, doubles again, 10 times, 20 times, with the only reason being a feeling that the price has risen too much and is about to fall, without any trading logic. This is a typical contrarian operation leading to losses.
2. There is no reason for shorting, including shorting at the 0.4 level, other than the feeling that the price has risen a lot. Does 0.4 necessarily mean the top? There is no resistance level above.
3. Let's talk about going long. The logic for going long is correct.
First, Bitcoin is consolidating sideways at a high level, and the current risk of a sharp drop is still small. Having experienced the previous rise, market sentiment is much better now.
Second, looking at the individual stock structure. irys consolidated at the bottom, rebounded to around 0.02, then pulled back and adjusted downward, then experienced another rise back to the 0.024 level. The bottom box structure is complete. Second, near 0.02, a small converging adjustment started, initiating an upward move, which is a complete structure. Third, the coin itself is a relatively new coin, having experienced a big rise followed by an adjustment, and the second wave started the day before yesterday. It is logical to be bullish. Fourth, such new coins can easily surge to the previous high, and once the previous high is broken, the upward space is fully opened, so it can rise anywhere.
Therefore, there is a lot of logic in going long, but no logic at all in shorting. Shorting is purely based on feeling and is contrarian.The latest BTC sell-off looks more like aggressive deleveraging than definitive evidence that the long-term thesis is broken. But the market still needs confirmation. 👀 📉 THE LIQUIDATION RESET Over the past 24 hours, $815M in positions were reportedly liquidated, with longs accounting for 92.6%. Open interest fell to $140.1B. This suggests leveraged positions were flushed out, although it doesn't guarantee an immediate recovery. 🐳 BTC: ACCUMULATION VS. PRICE PRESSURE Reported whale withdrawalAfter the weekend battle, 80,000 is still in hand
The weekend battle is over, let's review the results: On Saturday, $BTC once dropped to 79,200 USD, breaking below 80,000; on Sunday, it hovered between 80,200 and 80,600 USD all day, currently about 80,300 USD (Beijing time 21:27) — the line broke but was quickly reclaimed, and it held all day.
The cost was not small: about 544 million USD liquidated across the network over the weekend, mostly long positions, with leverage being washed out first.
But structurally it is still weak: $BTC current price is below the 7-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages (approximately 81,900, 82,400, and 81,900 USD respectively), only the 200-day moving average (about 73,000 USD) is still far below supporting the mid-term trend.
Two events next week will determine the direction: whether Trump will fight or negotiate, which may be clear tonight; and the FOMC results on Wednesday (Beijing time Thursday early morning 2 AM). Holding 80,000 over the weekend was just the first half, the second half depends on these two thunderclaps.History is raising an interesting question. 👀 ▪️ 2018: Bitcoin experienced a major post-election downturn, with a maximum drawdown of around 50%. ▪️ 2022: Bitcoin also suffered a significant decline, with a maximum drawdown of around 25%. The next US midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. But here's the key point: two historical examples don't establish a reliable pattern. Bitcoin's next move will depend on liquidity, Federal Reserve policy, investor sentiment, and broader marketBTC is hovering around $81,600, while ETH is trading near $2,400. The rebound is still modest, but the market may be starting to price in a more dovish Fed outlook. So why hasn't the decline in rate-hike expectations triggered a stronger rally yet? Because expectations alone aren't enough. Traders also need confirmation from macro data, liquidity conditions, ETF flows, and actual buying pressure. Much of the news may already be priced in, and uncertainty around the Fed can keep investors cautiou 🌡️Sunday Evening｜Three Major Integer Levels Tested Simultaneously
$BTC 80191｜80000 📈
81000 breaks, 80000 shows support, slow accumulation in the mid-to-long term. On-chain tug of war: long-term holders withdraw and hoard, short-term holders transfer to exchanges preparing to cash out. Next week's FOMC has an 84.5% probability of no rate change, not suitable for short-term speculation, avoid heavy positions.
$ETH 2314｜2300 ⚡
Fell back from 2433, whales bought $155 million at 2300, exchange ETH outflow hits 169,000 coins, a 4-month high; but early whales are selling simultaneously. Holding 2300 is a pullback, breaking below targets 2200.
$SOL 100.45｜100 🚀
Dropped from 105 to 100, Alpenglow new narrative launched but price shows no reaction. Staking lock-up reduces circulating supply, holding 100 is a pullback, breaking below targets 95.
$RE 0.37724｜Small insurance token +1.7% 😴
On-chain insurance fund pool token, trading volume only $310,000, liquidity is very thin, market needs a chain reaction of liquidations to catalyze.
$OKB 107.73｜Platform token pullback 🔴
Fell from 114 to 107, offers fee discounts, new token lottery + monthly burn mechanism, volatility follows the overall market, suitable for long-term holding, no need to monitor daily.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ I think SK Hynix is very likely to exceed expectations this time.
HBM4 will truly start contributing to Vera Rubin's revenue from Q3, DRAM prices have risen about 22%, NAND about 15%, and price increases alone are enough to boost profits. The market consensus expects operating profit around 77 trillion KRW, with a gross margin close to 78%, which is already very high, but some brokerages see it exceeding 80 trillion.
The only thing to be cautious about is not the numbers for this quarter themselves, but whether HBM4 shipments are below expectations due to Rubin's delay, and how much Samsung catches up. Even if the numbers exceed expectations, if the guidance is weak, the stock might not rise.
Do you think HBM4 can push profitability to the next level this time? ENA is also one of the 4 targets I mentioned in my previous post: a 4H-level structure shifting from a downtrend to a consolidation or upward structure.
ENA's current consolidation range is between 0.2144 and 0.1743.
Yesterday, it dropped to a low of 0.183, which is roughly the safety zone.
I calculated the price based on a 3:1 risk-reward ratio.
The rebound that started at midnight and lasted until 9 AM today ranks ENA's rebound amplitude in the top 5.
This further supports the judgment that the downtrend has ended and a new bullish structure is being formed, at least for now.
Next, follow the signs and look for opportunities to enter long positions.Initia mainnet and Rollups are still halted, yet $INIT reports 0.15622 (+8.86%, +23.8% over seven days), funding rate -0.0133%, shorts are still paying interest to longs.
But the trading volume is only $190,000. In this liquidity, the correct translation of +8.86% is "no one is dumping," not "someone is rushing in."
$MAGMA 0.36805 (-5.08%), still +37.66% over seven days, rising 37% then giving back 5 points, that's called taking profits.
$WLD 0.4698 (-1.28%), RSI 34.0, MA20 pressing down 10% overhead.
For small caps, first look at volume then at gains. +8.86% supported by $190,000 and one supported by 350 million are two different species. #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ ✨Don't be misled by the market consensus that the October FOMC will pause rate hikes; this is not a substantial positive.
The better-than-expected PMI data shows the current economy remains hot, with corporate selling prices hitting the fastest increase in over a year, and inflation stickiness far from fully dissipated. This pause is by no means a signal of policy shift; rather, it means the high interest rate environment will last longer, and the market's previous expectations for rate cuts have basically fallen through.
On the market front, BTC barely maintains sideways movement relying solely on the pause in rate hikes expectation. The high interest rate environment suppresses incremental off-exchange capital inflows. Spot ETF funds mostly exhibit impulsive quick in-and-out behavior, lacking sustained buying support. The upper-level trapped positions accumulate layer upon layer, making it difficult to form an effective breakout without liquidity easing. ETH, as a follower, shows weaker performance; the ecosystem currently lacks new growth catalysts, capital is cautious, and under the high interest rate drain effect, price elasticity is worse. During market corrections, ETH often falls more sharply. The current sideways movement is not a true stabilization; rebounds lacking capital support are mostly bull traps. Operationally, blind chasing of highs or bottoms is inadvisable. Long-term bullish logic can be retained, but short-term trading requires strict stop-loss enforcement; never stubbornly hold and amplify risks.
Do not treat the pause in rate hikes as a reversal indicator for the market. The stronger the economic data, the more confidence the Federal Reserve has to maintain high rates. Policy uncertainty remains the core variable hanging over all risk assets.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
$BTC $ETH Browsing Orbit tonight, I went through dozens of posts with cards, and one feeling is becoming clearer: the card itself doesn't tell the story, it's the text around the card that does. First, here are three real cards that appeared tonight, all from public posts in the Orbit feed, and I haven't changed a single word: The first one, Yolstoy泰泰's ETH card: perpetual 100x short, position held, snapshot on October 22 at 17:20, profit +179.78, card face +245.12%. The text is very honest: account $667, next target $1000, watching ETH support at 2350, BTC at 80800, still holding shorts, and asked, "Will there be an inertial rebound on Friday?" The second one, Bald Climber's BTC card: perpetual 100x long, position held, snapshot on October 24 at 07:16, card face -169.82%. The text is just one sentence: "Is this one going to crash?" The third set is the most interesting, two cards of the same coin IRYS, with completely opposite directions. Shield Bureau 1995's card: perpetual 3x short, position held, snapshot on October 24 at 09:11, profit +2.09K, card face +62.87%, text four words "Lick once and run." Another card from "Made 1 million USD and logged off": perpetual 10x long, position held, snapshot on October 24 at 07:24, profit -49.5, card face -550.Bought an ugly duck for 700 yuan, now the floor price is only $13! This wave is just too brutal 😂
A project released a batch of duck avatar NFTs, claiming they grant access to creator events, leaderboard boosts, and reward pool shares. The minting price was about 2.5 SOL, roughly $400 at the time. Some even chased high up to 7 SOL, about $1400 each.
The project collected around 5000 SOL from these NFTs, equivalent to about $750,000. A few weeks later, the point-earning gameplay through posting was directly cut off by platform rules. The official account was also banned. The floor price crashed all the way down to about $13 to $20. The high-priced one lost nearly $1300.
Even more painful, the team still holds those 5000 SOL. SOL dropped from around $160-$170 to near $100, so that amount on the books is now roughly $500,000. Someone checked on-chain and found they only started unstaking last month, converting to stablecoins.
Holders complain they bought ducks for hundreds of dollars but never won any event draws. This circle makes many promises but often delivers late. It’s heartbreaking just watching.SOXL is a daily 3x leveraged long semiconductor ETF, suitable only for short-term trading and not for long-term holding; it suffers from compounding decay (daily rebalancing loss) and will continuously lose value in a volatile downward market. The following analysis is for market observation only and does not constitute any investment advice.
1. Current status at the 85 price level
Recent range: 80.83–87.61, with 85 being a neutral to slightly upper resistance level after this round of decline.
- Upper resistance: 87–90 range, which is a dense selling pressure zone during the recent rebound; only by stabilizing above 90 can the rebound space toward 95+ open up.
- Lower support: Around 80 is a strong recent low support; if it breaks below 80 effectively, the next support range is 72–75.
- Major trend: Mid-term is in a main downtrend channel, with a huge drop in October. Although a large amount of capital has bottom-fished, this buying has not reversed the downtrend, representing a typical "retail investors catching the falling knife, institutions reducing positions" pattern.
2. Two scenario simulations
1. Bullish scenario (rebound)
Trigger conditions: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index SOX stabilizes, weighted chip stocks like Nvidia stop falling, and US Treasury yields decline.
If the 85 level breaks above 87 with volume, the short-term target is 90–95; however, this is more of a technical rebound and unlikely to directly reverse the major trend. The rebound is suitable for quick in-and-out trades, not for long-term holding.🔥 213,000 people liquidated 800 million, but a whale opened a long position of 37.8 million on ZEC!
In the past 24 hours, about 800 million USD was liquidated across the entire network, with $BTC liquidations totaling 235 million, over 213,000 people forcibly closed, most of them long positions. BTC once dropped to 79,277, $ETH fell below 2300, and SOL dropped below 100. On October 22, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net outflow of 635.6 million, the largest since June, with a two-day cumulative outflow of 774 million, offsetting more than 70% of the previous 1.07 billion net inflow.
But at the same time, on-chain data shows two 10x long positions totaling 29,798 ZEC were opened within 15 hours, with a nominal value of about 37.57 million USD. Since the launch of the Grayscale spot ETF, ZEC has still surged by 2,076% cumulatively.
Retail investors are being liquidated, ETFs are withdrawing, whales are going long. These three things happening simultaneously indicate that the current market has no "consensus direction," only funds at different time dimensions are battling each other. Every candlestick you chase is gambling against an opponent on another cycle.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ 💡 Who holds the funds in the US market? Two giant whales' long positions provide the answer.
After ETH's pullback, the trader address with a 100% win rate, 0xe813, directly opened a long position of 26,974 $ETH, worth about $63.88 million, currently floating a profit of $842,000 (monitored by Lookonchain); another whale is even heavier: a long position of 93,184 ETH, with liquidation prices pressed at 2,256 and 2,226 respectively. These two lines are the whales' lifelines and can also serve as reference points for tonight's retracement—if the price falls below, the long positions will suffer first.
The US market sentiment is also cooperating: OpenAI resumes frontier model training, US tech stocks rally collectively in after-hours trading, Intel after-hours +1.86%, Micron, SanDisk, AMD all up over 1%, the computing power narrative heats up again.
My stance: short-term bullish, because whales dare to add longs after the drop, indicating risk appetite is warming up. But when whales lose, it's mass liquidations—don't mistake others' confidence for your own position.
Crypto assets are high risk; the above is personal observation, not investment advice, please DYOR.
Do you think this wave of whale longs is a true signal or a trap? Take a side in the comments.
#欧意星球 #BTC行情 #以太坊 #巨鲸监测 #美盘行情How many people's positions were pierced by that needle in the early morning? Now that the V-shaped rebound has come back, do you feel like the bottom has arrived and your hands are itching to buy? Don't rush to catch the bottom yet. I've been watching the data for a long time, and the most glaring thing about this rebound isn't the price, but that the capital preference hasn't shifted at all. BTC current price is 80880, it dipped to 79168 early morning but was forcefully pulled back up, yet the 4-hour long-short ratio still hangs at 2.24; ETH current price is 2357, it dropped to 2281, and the long-short ratio soared directly to 2.85; SOL current price is 102.3, after breaking 100 it pulled back, but the 4-hour long-short ratio is actually 3.26. Prices are recovering, but leverage hasn't been cleaned out, which means retail investors are crazily catching the knife and holding on stubbornly, with position sizes not decreasing but increasing. I have a habit when watching the market: during rebounds, first see who is adding positions. This round, the ones adding positions are retail bulls, not the main players. So the question arises, with such a heavy load, why would whales help lift you? The capital preference layer is even more subtle: ETF buying is repeated, FOMC is approaching, incremental funds are clearly cautious, the money willing to chase highs is decreasing, while the money willing to catch bottoms is increasing. This structure is most likely to lead to a secondary bottom test. There is also a bullish path: if BTC can hold above 80,000 and ETH holds 2300, short covering will bring a decent rebound, and altcoin sentiment can catch a breath. But the unseen risk lies in the fact that with such a high long-short ratio, any false breakout could trigger a chain of liquidations. Leverage is not cleared, so the rebound is just a repair, not a reversal. My discipline for today is simple: don't chase this V, wait for a round of leverage washout first. Keep positions light, pace yourself